Option Investor
Archive
HAVING TROUBLE PRINTING?
Printer friendly version
OI Technical Staff : 7/22/2005 9:59:59 PM

The Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

Disclaimer: Stocks discussed in the Market Monitor are for educational purposes only and any analysis is not meant to imply a recommendation for or against that stock. The analysts in this forum as on any other website are prohibited by the SEC from giving any specific advice to ANY individual trader. All information posted is for ALL readers and is not meant to be directed to any individual. Our analysts cannot answer any email questions regarding any specific stock. Please do not ask and please do not take offense if requests are denied.

Results posted in the Market Monitor are hypothetical and OIN does not claim that any reader achieved these exact results. Due to the lag time between research, writing, posting, uploading, reading and execution there will be differences between the actual signal given and the fill achieved by the reader. Fills may be better or worse but in most cases they will be different. The writers will make every effort to give advance notice of intended signals and indicate potential price targets. Your individual results may vary depending on your activity level and aggressiveness. This forum is intended as an education service only. Trading involves risk and should not be attempted by anyone not ready to accept this risk. By acting on any signal in this forum you agree and personally accept this risk.

Jeff Bailey : 7/22/2005 5:59:11 PM

Marc: Your links to the 04:57:49 post aren't working (they go to the OI home page). Hey... how did YOU (and our subscribers) do this week in futures?

I have the SOX.X up 11.55 points, or +2.5% on the week. OSX.X up 12.56 points, or +8.56% on the week. Both hit new 52-week highs today!

Jeff Bailey : 7/22/2005 5:05:41 PM

Closing Internals found at this Link

Marc Eckelberry : 7/22/2005 4:57:49 PM

As Cramer would say, it's OSX now, not SOX. Link
Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/22/2005 4:22:50 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles found at this Link ... Today's Activity ... I made no MM profiles today.

July-to-date blotter of CLOSED trades found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/22/2005 4:09:24 PM

Hanover Compressor (HC) $13.00 +4.08% ... Updated chart that we've been trading (long under $12, let it run, then sold $12.50 call for $0.60 = $13.10) at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/22/2005 4:04:02 PM

Collegiate Pacific (BOO) updated bar chart we've been following at this Link ... too thin for a MM profile, but I do hold small position from 07/05/05 01:36:15 analysis Link

Linda Piazza : 7/22/2005 3:59:50 PM

RUT still building on its five-minute breakout, into the close. The OEX hasn't reached its upside target, though. Neither have the Dow and SPX. The Wilshire 5000 did, and then pulled back a little, but may be trying to touch it again into the close. The Wilshire 5000 did not hit a new high today, at least not yet, and clusters around a daily Keltner line currently at 12284.94, neither breaking strongly above it or below it, so not really yet setting a new upside target.

Linda Piazza : 7/22/2005 3:57:31 PM

SOX didn't break through that rectangular consolidation zone in which it's traded most of the day. Just a few minutes in which bulls could try it.

Jeff Bailey : 7/22/2005 3:54:33 PM

VIX.X 10.61 -3.28% ... right back at its WEEKLY Pivot. Session lows ....

Linda Piazza : 7/22/2005 3:52:24 PM

This has been a most frustrating day for bears and bulls alike, but I have a 17-month-old behind me, spooning oddly colored yogurt mostly all over her chest and face and hair, and we didn't know this time last year if she'd even be here this time this year, much less sit up or crawl or do any of the things she's doing, so I'm going to take the frustration in stride and go pick up the cup and spoon she just tossed across the room in frustration when she couldn't get enough yogurt in her mouth. Back in sec.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/22/2005 3:51:12 PM

VXO 10.06, VXO 13.05, and QQV 11.98. This may be the lowest print I've ever seen on the QQV- checking now. Edit: Wednesday afternoon printed the record low below 11.6.

Linda Piazza : 7/22/2005 3:49:28 PM

RUT still building on its breakout signal on the five-minute chart. Longer-term chart, a daily, shows an upper Keltner target at 679.36-682.21.

Jeff Bailey : 7/22/2005 3:47:53 PM

NASDAQ Composite (COMPX) 2,178.60 +0.00 ... Looks like Mark Davis left too early. He heard the horn though!

Linda Piazza : 7/22/2005 3:47:51 PM

SOX still hasn't broken out. Saving its ammunition for a last-minute run when sellers won't have a chance to hit it? Or just can't break out? I'm anthropomorphisizing again, and I apologize to those of you who know enough about English and grammar to be put off by that.

Linda Piazza : 7/22/2005 3:45:47 PM

The Wilshire 5000 just hit its upside Keltner target on the five-minute chart. Watching these one- and five-minute charts might not have told us much, but they did tell us that bears couldn't get the job done when those H&S's on the one-minute charts failed to meet their targets and that the bulls could, over the very short-term, as the indices moved up to or toward their five-minute chart targets. With that said, the Wilshire 5000 has been adhering today quite well to five-minute chart parameters, so this test of resistance might prompt a pullback, or else a breakout, confirmed by a five-minute close above a line currently at 12,336.56, might result in Russell-2000-like behavior.

Jeff Bailey : 7/22/2005 3:45:24 PM

Dumping 500 GEPT $6.99 here (61.8% retracement $7.01 from 04/11/04 high to recent lows) and holding 200 over the weekend to see how crazy things get Monday and more importantly... Tuesday's full moon.

I've got 200 CAFEW from $9.55 that might be at risk sometime soon. If it ever trades again.

Linda Piazza : 7/22/2005 3:43:16 PM

Oh, and not to leave the Dow out, the upside five-minute Keltner target is 10,618.10, with the Dow at 10,657.61. Seems like a big jump for the DOW, doesn't it?

Linda Piazza : 7/22/2005 3:42:28 PM

Wilshire 5000 approaching its 12,335.53 upside five-minute target, with the DWC now at 12,328.92. OEX's at 575.55, with the OEX at 574.57. RLX's at 484.87, with the RLX at 484.22. RUT continuing to build on its five-minute breakout signal. For the very short-term moment, bulls have the ball back again.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/22/2005 3:41:29 PM

Session highs for ES and YM, QQQQ with 10 cents to go as the short cycle indicators drill up into overbought territory: Link

Linda Piazza : 7/22/2005 3:38:48 PM

OEX bears need for the RLX to turn down now and confirm a lower high by a fall beneath 479.32. OEX bulls need an RLX higher high than yesterday's. Meanwhile, though, the OEX just continues to rattle around within that channel that's contained it all week, with boundaries currently at 570.80 and 575.10 on 15-minute closes.

Linda Piazza : 7/22/2005 3:36:30 PM

The SOX has not broken out of that consolidation pattern in which it's traded most of the day. Keep waiting for this leading index to at least join the others, but it hasn't yet.

Linda Piazza : 7/22/2005 3:35:38 PM

Barring an accident on Sunday, Lance Armstrong will probably capture his seventh win.

Linda Piazza : 7/22/2005 3:33:51 PM

Some of those indices named in my 3:31 post have already come right back down to test the five-minute support, but the five-minute period is not over.

Linda Piazza : 7/22/2005 3:31:15 PM

Five-minute Keltner target (not to be reached in five minutes, but from the five-minute chart) is 1234.57, as long as the five-minute support holds. RLX: 484.78. OEX: 575.49. RUT's: already exceeded, at 673.60 level. DWC: 12,334.39. Now you can watch to see if these bullish targets are met. Sigh.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/22/2005 3:30:15 PM

QQQQ is printing its first 3 min candle entirely above 39.45 resistance. 20 cents to go until the session high, with the 10-day stoch on the daily chart hanging on a bearish kiss within overbought territory. Bears need that lower high for the day. Link

Linda Piazza : 7/22/2005 3:29:20 PM

Breaking to the upside on those indices with those one-minute H&S's, instead of reaching their targets.

Linda Piazza : 7/22/2005 3:26:45 PM

Some charts have those just-barely confirmed H&S's on their one-minute charts, such as OEX, Dow, and SPX, but some have formations that look more bullish, like bullish right triangles, with the NDX being one.

Linda Piazza : 7/22/2005 3:25:03 PM

Similar one-minute H&S on the OEX, but it's climbing right back up to retest the neckline, at about 573.82, I think. Hard to tell with a one-minute formation. OEX at 573.73.

Jeff Bailey : 7/22/2005 3:24:54 PM

Collegiate Pacific (BOO) $11.70 +1.65% ... Double moon rising! It might as well be Halloween!

Linda Piazza : 7/22/2005 3:23:44 PM

Really rough potential H&S on the SPX's one-minute chart, neckline being tested or perhaps just violated, downside target about 1230.75-1231. Watching to see if it's met or not will tell traders something about short-term strength or weakness. Was this just a stop-running push that's not going to go any further or something more? This might help give guidance. SPX at 1232.25.

Linda Piazza : 7/22/2005 3:21:10 PM

The TRAN has not broken through its analogous (to the RLX, OEX and DWC) five-minute Keltner boundary, with that at 3779.34 currently, and the TRAN at 3774.22. The TRAN tries to form an inverse H&S at the bottom of its decline on the five-minute chart, head at the 2:30-ish low, but hasn't confirmed it yet. A confirmed break out of that channel would be needed, and then would set a current upside target of 3794.24.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/22/2005 3:20:17 PM

Volume breadth is up to +1.73:1 for the NYSE, -1.03:1 for the Nasdaq. VXO 10.36, VXN 12.99

Linda Piazza : 7/22/2005 3:19:06 PM

The Wilshire 5000 has broken through to the upside on its five-minute chart in a convincing manner, setting an upside target of 12,333.31 on that chart. Needs to maintain five-minute closes above 12,305.81 to maintain that target, but preferably above 12,310.04. The DWC is at 12,320.21 as I type.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/22/2005 3:18:11 PM

The current spike off the lows has turned up the 30 min cycle indicators from above oversold territory, and stalled the 60 min downphase, leaving it on a bullish kiss. By bouncing it above 39.20, the bulls avoided the lower low to match the lower high that has so far printed- all that remains is to see whether they can take out the current high at 39.59.

Linda Piazza : 7/22/2005 3:17:43 PM

As often happens, the RLX's five-minute Keltner pattern is similar to the OEX's, with the analogous five-minute target on the RLX at 484.73 as long as it maintains the current support, down to about 483.20, on five-minute closes. RLX at 483.67 as I type.

Jeff Bailey : 7/22/2005 3:17:08 PM

03:00 Internals found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 7/22/2005 3:15:55 PM

I've switched to a five-minute chart on the OEX. It shows that the OEX is, as we already knew, hesitating at the descending trendline off Wednesday's high after briefly piercing it. It shows that it's being support by a five-minute Keltner line currently at 573.61, and that the OEX needs to produce five-minute closes below it to show that it's losing support. More support cycles up, too. Next Keltner target on that chart is 575.46, near the descending trendline off the Monday high, with that support so far holding.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/22/2005 3:12:41 PM

Looks like a small rising triangle below 39.45 QQQQ here, with the short cycle indicators in a bullish divergent upphase. 30 min channel resistance is up to 39.52. Link

Linda Piazza : 7/22/2005 3:12:05 PM

Instead of the longest mile, we could have the longest last hour here, with nothing much really happening but everyone, bulls and bears alike, forced to stare every moment and analyze every minute movement.

Linda Piazza : 7/22/2005 3:04:48 PM

RUT, DWC, OEX and RLX all pulling back to retest those descending trendlines. SOX turning down from the top of its rectangular trading pattern for most of the day. All just iffy evidence just yet, though, with confirmation that the breaks are failing far from present. So far, just a pullback on some of those indices to test former resistance and see if it holds as support.

Jeff Bailey : 7/22/2005 3:03:45 PM

03:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 7/22/2005 3:00:22 PM

RUT, RLX, DWC and OEX above descending trendlines off Wednesday's highs. Waiting to see if they get slapped back or gain from here.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/22/2005 2:58:17 PM

Ten year notes have done nothing as QQQQ jolted off its session low, currently +11/32 at 111 7/16 with TNX down 5.9 bps at 4.223%. Still no break of yesterday's TNX lows, with 3 minutes left in the cash session. Link

Linda Piazza : 7/22/2005 2:57:48 PM

If the OEX pushes past this current 574-ish resistance and sustains that, the next resistance is at just over 575, the best-fit trendline off Monday's high and the location of a Keltner line that's contained most moves all week. A breakout there would set a new upside target that would bring the OEX into that 577-580-ish resistance zone, but it hasn't happened yet.

Linda Piazza : 7/22/2005 2:56:06 PM

The RUT is pushing above the descendign trendline off Wednesday's high.

Linda Piazza : 7/22/2005 2:55:34 PM

SOX testing the top of the rectangular consolidation band in which it's traded most of the day. Wilshire 5000 at the top of the descending trendline off the 7/20 high. RLX testing the descending trendline off yesterday's high. OEX at the descending trendline off Wednesday's high. (Note: not yet at the one off Monday's high, as the first version fo this said.) Time for the bulls to get the job done now, or else the bears will try to take the ball back again.

Jeff Bailey : 7/22/2005 2:50:23 PM

Oh My! ... GEPT $7.00 Link ... X gets the square with a spread triple top buy signal.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/22/2005 2:47:51 PM

QQQQ breaks the prior highs from 10:30 this AM on a surge of volume, running toward 30 and 60 min channel resistance at 39.47-.50.

Linda Piazza : 7/22/2005 2:42:43 PM

As I said earlier, bears couldn't get the job done, and now bulls are going to try. Hold on. The SOX is headed up to the top of a rectangular consolidation pattern in which it's traded since the first hour of trading today, with the top of that at about the 50% retracement of the day's range, just over 476.17. The SOX is at 475 as I type. RLX bursting higher, but not yet above the 484 level. Wilshire 5000 headed up toward the descending trendline off Wednesday's high, but not there yet.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/22/2005 2:42:28 PM

The dip was bought with a vengeance on QQQQ, the largest upside spike of the day: Link

Linda Piazza : 7/22/2005 2:35:15 PM

RLX ronding down. SOX retesting the LOD. OEX doing the same, although neither has quite breached it. Another point at which bears really should get the job done or bulls are going to give it a try.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/22/2005 2:34:15 PM

QQQ breaking prior lows here, and tests 30/60 min channel support at yesterday's 39.20 low: Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/22/2005 2:27:17 PM

Global ePoint (GEPT) $6.65 +66% ... gets bold print in this weekend's Wall Street Journal. New 52-weeker here. (see 10:56:13)

Linda Piazza : 7/22/2005 2:18:16 PM

I've had various indices ringed with QCharts alarms for several hours, setting them to show upside or downside breaks, expecting them to start chiming any moment when I set them, but none have gone off during that time.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/22/2005 2:16:37 PM

New high for Sept. crude oil at 58.55, +1.425. 3 day 150 tick chart at this Link

Linda Piazza : 7/22/2005 2:15:47 PM

It's this black channel line on the 30-minute Keltner chart that's holding the RLX back, but notice that the RLX has still been moving sideways-up while RSI cycles down? Link Unless bears can get some pronounced downside action going, and preferably a 30-minute close beneath the purple Keltner line, the breakout signal line, then there's vulnerability to more upside and this thing really hasn't been squelched yet.

Jeff Bailey : 7/22/2005 2:14:05 PM

02:00 Internals found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 7/22/2005 2:11:39 PM

QQQQ's pulled back here, failing below the daily pivot and retesting 72 SMA support from above. Volume is very slack, now at 49.2M shares- compared with yesterday's 127.8M total. 4 day 3-min chart at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 7/22/2005 2:04:12 PM

Session high for Sept. crude, +1.175 at 58.30.

Jeff Bailey : 7/22/2005 2:03:27 PM

02:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 7/22/2005 1:59:44 PM

Volume breadth remains mixed and neutral, +1.36:1 on the NYSE and -1.21:1 on the Nasdaq, volume slowed to a crawl. If not for a small number of volume spikes, this very quiet day would be at a standstill.

Linda Piazza : 7/22/2005 1:59:43 PM

I'm still looking at that SOX daily Keltner channel target/resistance at 485.75, wondering if the SOX will make another stab at reaching it. Link

Linda Piazza : 7/22/2005 1:57:45 PM

For what it's worth, OEX next Keltner resistance is at 572.78-572.96, with Keltner resistance above that thinning, next at 574.98. Next support at 572.17, then 571.56, and the important support at 570.66. This is on the 15-minute chart. The OEX has been lingering at daily Keltner support, too, at 571.97 on a daily close, which is probably one reason it just won't go down. It's been finding support at this line all week.

Linda Piazza : 7/22/2005 1:53:40 PM

RUT climbing again, with the descending trendline off Wednesday's high now at about 672, and the RUT at 669.83.

Jeff Bailey : 7/22/2005 1:52:44 PM

Gold ... Source: Embassy of the People's Republic of China in India Link

Linda Piazza : 7/22/2005 1:48:32 PM

The RLX has extended that new right shoulder way too far out in time. It should have continued the rounding over process. I don't trust this index a bit, and wouldn't be surprised to see it bump higher to at least 484, and maybe even high enough to invalidate the whole thing. It's just not giving up. Bears need to round it down now. No wonder the OEX won't stay down when it dips down.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/22/2005 1:41:21 PM

QQQQ is ticking above 72 SMA resistance here, the short cycle indicators turning up. Resistance is at the daily pivot, 39.40, followed by the 30 min channel top at 39.45. Link

Jane Fox : 7/22/2005 1:41:04 PM

Dateline CNN Man arrested in Stockwell area of London in connection with Thursday's attempted bombings, police say.

Keene Little : 7/22/2005 1:39:12 PM

Jim, I'm with you. QM can be a great ride but it can also be a nasty bronco. I found myself way too antsy watching QM trades. Life's too short...

Jonathan Levinson : 7/22/2005 1:37:56 PM

Volume breadth currently +1.38:1 on the NYSE, -1.27:1 on the Nasdaq.

Linda Piazza : 7/22/2005 1:35:57 PM

Today's stop-running period of time, fast approaching, might be particularly hairy for bullish and bearish traders alike. Now that I've gotten that out of the way, I'm sure that markets will be clamped in a vise, not moving anywhere the rest of the day. Smile.

Linda Piazza : 7/22/2005 1:34:49 PM

The Wilshire 5000 still finds support today at the 15-minute 100/130-ema's, now lengthening (in time) the right shoulder of what had been a possible H&S formation, complete with bearish price/RSI divergence as the head was produced. Bears just don't have the strength yet that bearish traders would like to see them have, and so there's still vulnerability to an upside move instead of the downside one that the presence of a possible H&S would suggest. If the DWC does break to the downside, watch the 12,180-12,200 level for bounce potential, as there's a bigger potential H&S on the 60-minute chart, with the current rounding-over perhaps part of the head formation.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/22/2005 1:34:11 PM

On the low VXO/VXN/VIX/QQV readings, these indicators are secondary to price, and tricky to use for pure market timing purposes. But one thing they clearly demonstrate is that option premiums are generally very, very low here, increasing the risk of option selling strategies. Whether bullish or bearish, going long premium appears to be a safer bet at current levels than going short premium.

Jim Brown : 7/22/2005 1:31:06 PM

Marc, good luck on the QM long. I gave up trying to trade the QM due to the extreme volatility. I have found that buying oil stocks and options on the dips has taken a lot of stress out of my trading. I am in positions about 4-6 days then cycle out when they pause for profit taking. I buy the dip again and repeat. I am using a 19 ema and 39 ema (both avg high/low) for the signal. The 39 ema is offset by 5. This is on a 15 min chart. You can use the 11/23(3) for faster entries but I like the 19/39(5). Link

Linda Piazza : 7/22/2005 1:29:45 PM

Since about 7/14, the SOX has broadened the formation in which it's been climbing, into a wide (with respect to the movement that preceded it) rising regression channel. This morning's pop higher went right up to the top of that channel, and the SOX now oscillates around the midline of that channel. Bears want it to roll down now and even violate that channel, with such a violation requiring a drop below about 468, it appears now. I don't see a diamond up here at this channel or any other kind of ending formation yet, but I don't remember seeing this kind of broadening of the channel, either, in just this way, so I'm uncertain as to its significance. Usually a steep rise breaks down, then climbs the underside of the rise, then perhaps breaks down again in to a more sustainable climb, in what Pring labels the correlative fan theory.

Linda Piazza : 7/22/2005 1:22:42 PM

We just can't get the OEX to budge, can we? It inched below some support, stayed above some. Still watching for a 15-minute close below a Keltner line currently at 570.58 for confirmation of a downside break, or at least a move below the 7/20 low. Nothing's settled on the OEX as the 573-ish resistance firms, but resistance thins above that, leaving space for the OEX to rise toward 575.20 or so. There's a descending trendline off Wednesday's high that's now just above 574 historical S/R, so that should be watched, too.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/22/2005 1:21:33 PM

QQQQ breaks 39.32 on light volume and has run the 4 cents to the declining 72 SMA, above which the short cycle indicators will turn up and the 30 min channel downphase stall. Volume is very light overall at 44M shares- QQQQ had traded this volume by 10:45AM yesterday.

Linda Piazza : 7/22/2005 1:15:31 PM

There's a big possible H&S on the RUT, and here's how it would play out if it will form. It's just now possibly rounding down into the head formation, so that's the first thing that should happen. The RUT should break the support of the possible bearish right triangle. Then it should drop quickly to the target, near the 668-ish swing low from last week. At 660.91 and 657.53, respectively, it will be hitting the 60-minute 100/130-ema's, averages that it bounced from on 7/07, so a bounce from that level should probably be expected, with bears hoping that the bounce is into a lower high, a right shoulder. Bulls should be hoping that there would be a higher high, if this scenario even plays out.

What's the use of speculating? First, if you see the RUT break lower and you're in a bearish position already, you would know that the 658-661 level is one of potential support, both from the H&S scenario and the 60-minute 100/130-ema's. You'd be able to decide if you wanted to take some or all of your profits at that point, and then either wait out or weather a bounce into a right shoulder, if that should occur. If you're in a bullish position or are thinking about entering one on a bounce (not something I'd particularly recommend right now) from those averages, you'd know that you'd need to protect profits at or before a test of the right shoulder level.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/22/2005 1:14:39 PM

QQQQ testing descending resistanece here on a possible bearish descending triangle, which could be the right shoulder (printing today) on a broad head and shoulders formation above a 39.20 neckline: Link . If so, bears don't want to see 39.32 broken.

Jeff Bailey : 7/22/2005 1:13:17 PM

01:00 Internals found at this Link

Jim Brown : 7/22/2005 1:11:40 PM

Energy stocks are 14% of the S&P and they are holding it up entirely on their own. HP +2.35, VLO +2.90, APA +3.19, APC +2.52, AHC +4.01, SWN +2.43, SUN +4.44, DO +2.52 WFT +2.32, RIG +2.52, NE +3.80, NBR +2.61, etc, etc, etc. Buy oil on the dips until November.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/22/2005 1:09:17 PM

Ten year notes are +13/32 at 111 1/2 here, TNX down an impressive 6.5 bps or 1.52% at 4.217%. 4.20% is key support here, also yesterday's low. So far, despite the big move lower, the TNX remains inside Thursday's range. Link

Linda Piazza : 7/22/2005 1:07:53 PM

The RUT has dropped closer to a test of yesterday's 666.67 low, but it's not quite there yet, at 667.61 as I type. I think it probably has to get below a 666.09 swing low from Wednesday before we would see much follow through or feel that the formation had been a bearish right triangle after all, and that it was confirmed. Then there should be that follow-through, or else bears should get nervous.

Jeff Bailey : 7/22/2005 1:02:53 PM

01:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 7/22/2005 1:00:59 PM

The RLX sort of rounds over, but, as I mentioned yesterday, this is the point when many H&S's are invalidated, with prices suddenly shooting higher just as the shoulder begins to round down. A brief break of the neckline is another such level. The SOX reached a slightly lower low, but still tries to steady now that it's back inside today's gap. The OEX punched down to retest the day's low, but tries to steady there, too. If bears can't get the job done, bulls are going to be glad to take over again, so be cautious, bears and bulls alike.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/22/2005 12:55:01 PM

Double bottom test for QQQQ, 4 cents above yesterday's low. 30 min channel support is at 39.20, the TRINQ at the high end of neutral at 1.29.

Linda Piazza : 7/22/2005 12:50:18 PM

OEX below the ascending trendline off the 7/20 low, testing the day's low. It hasn't confirmed by dropping below that 571.08 low or by a 15-minute close below the 15-minute Keltner line currently at 570.60.

Linda Piazza : 7/22/2005 12:46:00 PM

The RLX pauses near 482, at 481.51 as I type, trading sideways along the 15-minute 21-ema. It has neither invalidated nor confirmed the new H&S formation.

Jeff Bailey : 7/22/2005 12:45:17 PM

Continuous Gold ($GOLD) ... WEEKLY Interval Chart with 40-week SMA and KITCO's 65-week SMA at this Link ... Newmont Mining (NEM) WEEKLY bar chart at this Link

Linda Piazza : 7/22/2005 12:45:16 PM

SOX testing the LOD.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/22/2005 12:43:11 PM

Session high for Sept. crude oil, +1.175 at 58.30.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/22/2005 12:41:04 PM

QQQQ update at this Link with the short cycle upphase stalling and short cycle channel support being tested at 39.30.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/22/2005 12:29:24 PM

Volume breadth is -1.2:1 on the Nasdaq, +1.27 on the NYSE, and nearly directionless. However, with GE and MSFT trading session lows, the picture is far less bullish than it appeared earlier this week.

Jeff Bailey : 7/22/2005 12:34:19 PM

August Gold PnF chart from Dorsey/Wright at this Link ... Continuous Gold ($GOLD) from StockCharts.com and $4 box at this Link ... Can't remember for certain, but I do believe headlines in December were that China was big buyer of gold. Interest "tell" perhaps with yesterday's news.

02/22/05 analysis from KITCO at this Link

Linda Piazza : 7/22/2005 12:28:02 PM

RLX still testing that 30-minute Keltner resistance. No breakout above it, but no 30-minute close below the breakout zone at 479.36, either. RLX at 481.69 as I type.

Linda Piazza : 7/22/2005 12:27:02 PM

The OEX attempted a little breakout, but certainly didn't get far.

Linda Piazza : 7/22/2005 12:26:45 PM

SOX turning lower, but within a potential bear flag formation and without yet violating the support of that bear flag formation, so it could zig and zag higher before we know whether it will break down or just zoom up again.

Jeff Bailey : 7/22/2005 12:17:51 PM

12:00 Internals found at this Link

Jane Fox : 7/22/2005 12:17:23 PM

VIX made a double top without putting downward pressure on ES telling me markets are more bullish than I suspected. But now I need them to prove it to me. ES is now making a double top at 1232.50 and VIX a double bottom so the proof will be both levels breaking.

Linda Piazza : 7/22/2005 12:14:06 PM

Along with watching SOX 477, as Marc and I are both finding important (for different reasons, so nice corroboration), watch RLX 484, if tested.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/22/2005 12:13:26 PM

The current QQQQ short cycle bounce is as weak as the short cycle downphases have been for the past 2 weeks. The bulls need to take out 39.40 before it fails, but even so, the lack of traction looks bearish, particularly within the declining 30 and 60 min cycles. So far, yesterday's highs have yet to be challenged. Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/22/2005 12:13:30 PM

I wasn't kidding when I said MSFT $25.79 -2.45% looked like the 10-year yield (down 5.9 bp) was I?

Linda Piazza : 7/22/2005 12:12:16 PM

OEX still getting squeezed between support and resistance.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/22/2005 12:11:40 PM

Back to find Aug. gold down 1.20 at a session low of 424.50, pulling back from a higher high and still at a higher low from yesterday's range. This so far confirms the upturn in the daily cycle indicators: Link

Linda Piazza : 7/22/2005 12:11:37 PM

The SOX now has a daily Keltner target at 485.75, but today it's having a bit of trouble staying above a daily Keltner line currently at 477.04. That number keeps coming up, both in my chart observations and in Marc's, I believe. The daily Keltner chart suggests that until the SOX begins producing daily closes beneath a line currently at 462.21, it may go on challenging that upper resistance. SOX at 475.16 as I type.

Linda Piazza : 7/22/2005 12:09:15 PM

Accidentally posted this on the Futures side: Here we go with the RLX, shoving higher beneath that 30-minute Keltner resistance, pushing it a bit higher along with it, but the resistance still holding so far. Any outcome is possible, but watching the potential right-shoulder area again, up to about 484 or slightly above if quickly slapped back. The RLX is at 481.66 as I type, still challenging that resistance. Bears want to see a 30-minute close beneath a Keltner line currently at 479.32. By the way, here's a daily Keltner chart for the RLX, showing an attempted but not quite convincingly executed breakout on the daily chart, showing that the RLX faces important resistance here: Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/22/2005 12:06:09 PM

Laughing with Keene ... Hey... there's a professor at CU (University of Colorado) that has claimed Indian heritage. Why not! Little Moonbeam it is.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/22/2005 12:05:40 PM

And VXO trading below 10 is the biggest red flag this market has seen in 12 years.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/22/2005 12:04:57 PM

Linda, I know they figured that in when they switched and did an adjustment retro-active, but what has been going on now is that you can buy VIX as a hedge thus skewing everything while it trades heavily on its own. VXO on the other hand is exactly what old VIX was.

Jeff Bailey : 7/22/2005 12:03:24 PM

12:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Keene Little : 7/22/2005 12:02:46 PM

Oh and Jeff, I've decided that since I live near several Indian reservations and I've often thought I would have loved living like the Indians (before America was "discovered") that I should be called Little Moonbeam.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/22/2005 12:02:29 PM

Linda that begs another question for me: VIX is also used as a trading vehicle now that it is SPX, and thus very unreliable. Didn't Larry wite that for the old VIX (OEX options), now VXO, which is a pure volatility indicator? I now prefer to use VXO. I have VXO low at 9.12, beating the old VIX low in December of 2003. (may I remind once again that the last time old VIX went below 10, SPX lost 10% in two months. 10%. Same thing, rising rates.

Keene Little : 7/22/2005 11:58:22 AM

Yo Bell Curve Bailey, how's it hangin'? BTW, a reader said my handle Moonbeam is so 60's. She's right. But better than Moonshine, unless of course it's after hours.

Linda Piazza : 7/22/2005 11:56:20 AM

RUT still coils.

Tab Gilles : 7/22/2005 11:56:12 AM

$USD The dollar is hitting resistance at 90 and I'm looking for a countertrend pullback fom this latest 9 point runup. Back down on the ema levels 86, but longerterm for the $USD to continue upwards and test the 95 level. Link Link

Linda Piazza : 7/22/2005 11:54:25 AM

The RLX, not having yet erased its breakout signal on the 30-minute Keltner chart, goes on retesting that 30-minute Keltner resistance. A break up to 482.50-483.75 would fit with that potential new H&S scenario I mentioned earlier this morning, and then we'd have to see if the new formation was confirmed or invalidated. RLX at 481.68 as I type.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/22/2005 11:52:14 AM

Stepping away for 10 minutes.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/22/2005 11:50:27 AM

QQQQ is trading sideways, Nasdaq breadth holding -1.31:1, in a so-far very weak short cycle upphase. 72 SMA resistance is down to 39.40 at the daily pivot, and a failure of bulls to break back above it would setup a very likely aggressive retest of the current lows. 30 min channel support has dropped to 39.15.

Jeff Bailey : 7/22/2005 11:49:45 AM

Fair is fair ... just got an e-mail from a long-time subscriber and friend ... "Bell Curve Bailey".... I've been called much worse.

Linda Piazza : 7/22/2005 11:47:10 AM

OEX again retests that rising tendline off the 7/20 low. It's being squeezed tightly against it, and the pressure should drive it one way or the other, but which? Have to wait to see. If it bounces, pay particular attention to the 573.20-ish level and then to the 574.60-ish descending trendline off the 7/20 high and then to the 575.60-ish best-fit trendline off the 7/14 high.

Jane Fox : 7/22/2005 11:44:19 AM

Dateline CNN Fatal shooting in subway station linked to ongoing anti-terror probe, London police say. Images released of four men wanted in connection with failed bombings

Jeff Bailey : 7/22/2005 12:39:31 PM

DAILY Distribution for the TRANsport / NonAir at this Link ... For option traders that prefer NEAR MONTH.

Jeff Bailey : 7/22/2005 11:46:18 AM

WEEKLY Distribution for the TRANsport / Non Air at this Link ... Ms. DeRosier's commentary.

For option traders looking several months out

Marc Eckelberry : 7/22/2005 11:36:07 AM

Buying September QQQQ 39 puts at .65. No stops. Do a 50% stop if you wish, I will ride this one out.

Linda Piazza : 7/22/2005 11:34:32 AM

SOX trying to pull up again just north of this morning's gap. May be just widening its possible bear flag as it pulls back below the 38.2% retracement of the day's range, at 475.45. SOX at 474.64 as I type, with the 50% retracement at about 476.38 and the 61.8% at 477.30.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/22/2005 11:33:54 AM

I can't stand this anymore. I've never seen such a great deal on puts including underlying top and low premium.

Linda Piazza : 7/22/2005 11:31:41 AM

The OEX just narrows its pattern more and more. It did have one 15-minute close below the ascending trendline off the 7/20 low, but it didn't confirm by a move below that 7/20 low or a 15-minute close below the Keltner line currently at 570.64.

Jeff Bailey : 7/22/2005 11:30:44 AM

El Paso Corp. (EP) $12.41 +2.39% ... has retraced 80.9% of its 02/17/05-04/18/05 decline.

Linda Piazza : 7/22/2005 11:30:22 AM

Thirty-minute Keltner resistance so far holds for the RLX, but it hasn't dropped back to and closed below the 30-minute breakout marker, now at 479.12, so the RLX remains in breakout status as far as that chart is concerned and might go on challenging that resistance until and unless it erases that breakout signal.

Linda Piazza : 7/22/2005 11:28:24 AM

The SOX's climb off the low of the day so far looks corrective, but we've been fooled by these supposedly corrective moves so many times before, so watch for a new LOD to confirm. Then there's all that potential gap support to wade through.

Jeff Bailey : 7/22/2005 11:26:54 AM

Ms. DeRosier ... from Dorsey/Wright and Assoc. discussing sectors and 10-week trading bands. When I've shown various Sector Distribution curves, that is what she is talking about.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/22/2005 11:26:15 AM

Sept. crude oil +.775 here at 57.90, off a high of 58.075 for the day.

Linda Piazza : 7/22/2005 11:24:06 AM

The RUT is so far today finding resistance at the midpoint of its rising regression channel. Link

Jonathan Levinson : 7/22/2005 11:20:36 AM

Session low for MSFT here at 25.75, -2.61%.

Linda Piazza : 7/22/2005 11:19:55 AM

SOX at 474.74. Midpoint of today's range at about 476.38.

Jeff Bailey : 7/22/2005 11:19:48 AM

Current OPEN MM Profiles found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 7/22/2005 11:17:19 AM

RLX retesting 30-minute Keltner resistance at 481.50-481.88 on 30-minute closes. Bears want to see a 30-minute close below a line currently at 479.12, the breakout level. Bulls want to see a new high.

Jeff Bailey : 7/22/2005 11:14:55 AM

Yesterday's Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/22/2005 11:14:09 AM

11:00 Internals found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 7/22/2005 11:13:41 AM

The Wilshire 5000 has a possible H&S-ish formation as seen on the 15-minute chart, not yet confirmed, but it didn't form right at the top of the climb exactly, but after a previous consolidation at the top of the climb, and then a slight rise into this formation. Since the Wilshire 5000 is bouncing each time from its 15-minute 100/130-ema's and since they're roughl analogous with the neckline for that formation, I'd use a 15-minute close (at least) below those averages to confirm that formation. The averages are currently at 12,271.38 and 12,261.23, respectively, with the DWC at 12,273.54 as I type. A break above this morning's 12,292.33 high might suggest that there's going to be another test of Wednesday's late-day high.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/22/2005 11:14:28 AM

You can pick up the QQQQ September 39 puts today for .60. This a steal and with low premium prices you will pobably no longer see for decades if not your lifetime. Think about it, especialy with the SOX selling off that sharply at 480, 61.8% 2004 high low. September gives you plenty of time to ride the noise. You might even consider the Octobers at .90. Unreal prices. That means by the 3rd week of October you would need QQQQ to hit 38.10 to break -even. Please do yourself a favor and pick some up and relax fpr the rest of the summer.

Linda Piazza : 7/22/2005 11:09:38 AM

The RUT may be trying to convert what had looked like a bearish right triangle into a more neutral one, pulling up its lows ahead of previous lows. Whatever it is, the RUT remains within the pattern.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/22/2005 11:08:16 AM

Kimberley Clark (KMB) announces its plan to cut 6000 jobs and close up to 20 manufacturing plants during the next 3.5 years. This represents roughly 10% of its workforce and 17% of its worldwide plants, resulting in estimately after tax charges of $625M-$775M. More at this Link .

Linda Piazza : 7/22/2005 11:07:44 AM

The SOX is trying to form a morning-star reversal signal on its 15-minute chart, doing a good job of it so far, although we're early in the 15-minute period. Bulls want a quick soaring move above the midpoint of today's range, now at 476.38, and then above the 61.85% retracement, at 477.35, and bears want a back-and-forth movement no higher than that before another rollover. SOX at 474.75 as I type.

Jeff Bailey : 7/22/2005 11:06:15 AM

11:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 7/22/2005 11:03:08 AM

QQQQ bounces from the 30 and 60 min channel bands, at a 39.25 low. Upside resistance will be the premarket lows at 39.34, followed by the daily pivot at 39.40 and declining 72 SMA at 39.42. The short cycle indicators are oversold, the strength of the bounce will confirm or invalidate the 30 min channel rollover. Bears do not want to see the current high at 39.59 exceeded. Link

Linda Piazza : 7/22/2005 10:58:11 AM

SOX in the gap. The RLX just did exactly what I posited it might do--confirmed the H&S, dropped down to 479-480 (479.32 LOD) and then began a bounce. We'll have to see how far it carries, but I think a bounce up to 483.30-483.82 isn't impossible. There is 30-minute Keltner resistance at 481.77, but it's turning higher and perhaps could be nudged even higher as the RLX climbs. So, if there's to be another right shoulder, we don't know yet whether that new formation will be confirmed or invalidated.

Jeff Bailey : 7/22/2005 10:56:13 AM

Global ePoint (GEPT) $6.20 +55% Link ... popping higher after the maker of video surveillance systems unveiled a new product for use in public transport. The company said its new Mass Transport System is a modified version of its airplane cockpit door surveillance system, which monitors the activity of passengers aboard any form of mass transport and can provide live video and archive 720 hours of recorded data.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/22/2005 10:52:22 AM

Headlines:

LONDON POLICE TO ISSUE CCTV RELATED TO THURSDAY ATTACKS

BOMBS PARTIALLY DETONATED AT ALL SITES THURS: UK POLICE

Jeff Bailey : 7/22/2005 10:51:52 AM

Rober Half Intl. (RHI) $34.58 +18.3% Link ... surging to a new 52-week high after the specialized staffing company said it earned $57.2 million or $0.33 a share, compared with $32.4 million, or $0.18 a share, a year earlier. Revenue rose 27% to $816.7 million from $641.2 million, a year earlier. Analysts were expecting revenues of $785.52 million.

Linda Piazza : 7/22/2005 10:49:29 AM

Within another couple of points, the SOX will again be testing the top of the rising regression channel on its weekly chart. A close below about 468.70 (a long-term weekly chart, so this is approximate) would have the week's candle showing a shadow piercing that resistance, but the resistance holding. Today's close will be particularly important, although I don't want to suggest that if the SOX closes at 469.50, it's broken out or that if it closes at 468.20, it's fallen back in the channel. That's an approximate boundary.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/22/2005 10:46:21 AM

QQQQ taking out the premarket lows and testing 30/60 min channel support here. Yesterday's low of 39.20 is in play. Link

Linda Piazza : 7/22/2005 10:45:12 AM

The RUT has not confirmed its possible bearish right triangle and isn't even at the confirmation level yet. So, although the RUT turns down from the day's high, a lower high than yesterday's or the day before's, it hasn't dropped far enough to test the make-or-break level for this potential formation.

Linda Piazza : 7/22/2005 10:43:30 AM

On a Keltner basis, the RLX has not yet erased its breakout signal on the 30-minute chart, something that OEX bears would like to see done. That's at 478.83 on 30-minute closes. The RLX is, however, facing Keltner resistance at 478.70 on 30-minute closes. Remember how I noted earlier that we could see a presumed confirmation of the H&S and a quick drop to 479-480 (hasn't happened yet), but then a bounce back into another right-shoulder level, turning the previous right shoulder into part of the head formation? That would fit with the 30-minute Keltner outlook, as the RLX would be hitting that breakout level just below 479-480, and that's support that hasn't been breached since the 18th. That's just a possibility and it first requires that the RLX stay below that neckline, which it hasn't seem inclined to do. At the neckline now.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/22/2005 10:41:27 AM

Volume breadth +1.4:1 on the NYSE, -1.3:1 on the Nasdaq. VXO 10.55, VXN 12.97

Jeff Bailey : 7/22/2005 10:43:58 AM

Affymetrix (AFFX) $45.78 -19.63% Link ... sharply lower after the company said Q2 profit rose 11% to to $7.8 million, or $0.12 a share, on an increased number of shares outstanding, from $7 million, or $0.11 a share, a year ago. Revenue rose 5.4% to $84.1 million, also shy of the $87.5 million consensus and company's own projection of $87 million.

The earnings missed the average analyst estimate of $0.17 a share.

Looking forward, the company said it still expects total revenue of $405 million. Piper Jaffray's Edward Tenthoff notes that if the company expects to achieve its total revenue target, then sales will need to grow 45% in Q4.

Linda Piazza : 7/22/2005 10:38:32 AM

TRAN testing yesterday's pullback low off the HOD. That level was 3777.97, with the TRAN at 3780.20. Everywhere I look, I find an index that's at a level where bulls or bears need to press their cases.

Linda Piazza : 7/22/2005 10:37:12 AM

SOX into the gap. RLX again testing that neckline. Still lots of bounce potential for both, so bears shouldn't be feeling to gleeful just yet. Maybe take a breath, though.

The OEX again tests the ascending trendline off the 7/20 low, as it did earlier this morning. It's testing daily Keltner support as well as historical S/R, too. OEX bears want to see this broken and want a 15-minute close beneath the Keltner line currently at 570.64, too, setting a potential downside target near 567-568.

Jeff Bailey : 7/22/2005 10:36:25 AM

Tempur-pedic Intl. (TPX) $18.19 -23.45% Link ... getting laid out after the mattress maker reported Q2 revenue that rose 27% over year-earlier levels to $192.6 million, but missed the average analyst estimate compiled by Thomson First Call of $196.3 million. The company also reported adjusted earnings that matched expectations and reiterated its 2005 outlook.

Goldman Sachs noting the company's introduction of its "Original Mattress" at a lower price may be raising concerns "that competition is taking its toll."

Jonathan Levinson : 7/22/2005 10:34:57 AM

30 and 60 min channel support line up for QQQQ at 39.25-39.30, but those levels should decline so long as price holds below 72 SMA resistance and given that the oscillators are very early in their runs as noted in premarket comments. Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/22/2005 10:30:43 AM

Halliburton (HAL) $52.36 +7.51% Link ... new 52-weeker after the oil service giant reported Q2 net of $392 million, or $0.76 a share, compared with a year-earlier loss of $667 million, or $1.52, stemming from an asbestos settlement and its Barracuda-Caratinga offshore project. Earnings from continuing operations totaled $391 million, or $0.76 a share, compared with a loss of $58 million, or $0.13 a share. Consensus was for $0.56 a share.

Linda Piazza : 7/22/2005 10:29:11 AM

SOX at the gap.

Linda Piazza : 7/22/2005 10:29:04 AM

TRAN pulling back from this morning's test of 3800, with one 15-minute candle piercing that level. It's not pulling back far, yet, though, at 3791.25 as I type. Certainly can't characterize this one as keeling over yet.

Linda Piazza : 7/22/2005 10:28:01 AM

RLX bouncing from the neckline, but not bouncing much yet. To be expected with the RLX's strength lately. Bulls haven't given up yet, obviously.

Linda Piazza : 7/22/2005 10:27:26 AM

I said a couple of days ago that once the OEX began settling into an equilibrium pattern on its 15-minute chart, that it might narrow its trading pattern, as that was often one result, and it has certainly done that. Currently, that pattern is from about 572-573.50. On a "breakout" of that narrow range, we might expect either a test of that important supporting Keltner channel line at 570.66 or of the descending trendline off the 7/14 high, now at about 575.75. Not much upside or downside to hope for yet, and those already in bearish plays from a test of that descending trendline yesterday or another day need to consider now whether they want to exit here, near the bottom of the recent range, or wait it out. Depends on trading style, account management considerations, temperament, etc. Watch the SOX and other indices for guidance.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/22/2005 10:24:08 AM

QQQQ bounces to test 72 SMA support from below, the short cycles in the first steps of their downphase: Link . Overall volume is lighter than we saw yesterday at this time, with 18.8M QQQQs traded so far.

Linda Piazza : 7/22/2005 10:22:37 AM

SOX just above the top of this morning's gap. This is not what bulls want to see, but now we have to see if bears get the rest of what they want, and that's a gap fill and a continuation down from there.

Jeff Bailey : 7/22/2005 10:22:28 AM

Host America (CAFE) $14.20 +2.01% ... halted for trade pending SEC review. (see MM 07/21/05 01:33:42 AM) Link

Host America -Warrants- (CAFEW) $9.24 +0.54% ... also halted.

Linda Piazza : 7/22/2005 10:18:39 AM

RLX inching just below that neckline for its H&S, but this kind of inching behavior is oh-so-suspect. I wouldn't be surprised to see a bounce attempt, or even an invalidation of that formation now. Watching. Bears would rather see a steep decline once the neckline gives way. An absence of that kind of behavior questions whether the neckline is the actual one or whether the formation has even been confirmed.

Jeff Bailey : 7/22/2005 10:18:26 AM

10:00 Internals found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 7/22/2005 10:17:55 AM

Session high for ten year notes, TNX down 5.4 bps at 4.228%.

Linda Piazza : 7/22/2005 10:16:59 AM

The RUT did not reach a new high above yesterday's today, and there's a hint of a bearish right triangle (flattish bottom near 666-667, lower highs) on its 15-minute chart. RUT at 670.45 as I type, with that formation not confirmed, of course, but not invalidated, either.

Linda Piazza : 7/22/2005 10:14:26 AM

RLX right at the neckline for its potential H&S on its 15-minute chart. Time for bulls to do what they've been doing lately and invalidate the formation or for bears to muster their strength.

Linda Piazza : 7/22/2005 10:13:43 AM

OEX bouncing from just above the ascending trendline off the 7/20 low, also from 572 known historical S/R. Daily Keltner support at 572.02, too, so this is an important test going on for the OEX, at 572.39 as I type.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/22/2005 10:12:55 AM

Nasdaq volume breadth has gone negative, -1.07:1, while +1.64:1 on the NYSE. TRIN is neutral at 1.06, TRINQ 1.42.

Linda Piazza : 7/22/2005 10:12:21 AM

SOX only about a point and a half above this morning's gap, so SOX watchers should prepare for a bounce attempt any time. Bears would prefer that it stop short of a 50% retracement of today's range, at about 477.03. Well, they'd actually prefer no bounce at all. Bulls would prefer a higher retracement, signaling a likely retest of the day's high.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/22/2005 10:11:54 AM

Sept. crude oil reopens, +.30 at 57.425 here.

Linda Piazza : 7/22/2005 10:10:36 AM

RLX turning down in accordance with a possible H&S-ish formation on the 15-minute chart, but that formation is not yet confirmed. Looks as if the neckline is now at about 480.90 with the RLX now at 481.06. One possible outcome, though, would be a seeming confirmation and quick plunge down to 479-480, and then a bounce into a new right shoulder, turning the previous one into part of the head formation. Watching this for guidance as to market strength and, in particular, OEX strength, as I've long held that we should be watching the RLX, too, when trying to decide what's going to happen with the OEX.

Linda Piazza : 7/22/2005 10:07:00 AM

Ascending OEX trendline off the 7/20 low now at about 571.84. That low was at 571.08, with important 15-minute Keltner support now at 570.73. OEX at 572.53 as I type, and OEX bears want to see 15-minute closes below all those levels.

Jeff Bailey : 7/22/2005 10:06:17 AM

10:00 Market Watch at this Link

Linda Piazza : 7/22/2005 10:05:39 AM

SOX now below the mid-point of the day's range, testing a 61.8% retracement of the day's range as I type. Bears should still be scared, but this is not what bulls want to see. BIG gap below, though, with possible gap support at bottom, middle, and top since it's so big.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/22/2005 10:04:09 AM

First sign of a turn in the short cycle upphase here. A break of 39.45 QQQQ should be enough to generate the first short cycle sell signals: Link

Linda Piazza : 7/22/2005 10:03:47 AM

The SOX is currently pulling back below the breakout level on its 15-minute chart, but it's at next 15-minute support near the current 476.90-ish level as I type. Stronger 15-minute support at 473.67, near the top of this morning's gap. Bears want that gap filled. Bulls don't.

Linda Piazza : 7/22/2005 10:02:25 AM

The RLX has not yet invalidated the H&S on its 15-minute chart, although this thing is like a snake that strikes quickly. No Jeff-like worm here (from Jeff's oft-repeated head-of-the-worm comparisons), but a good old rattlesnake coiling and driving higher just when you think it's going to slink into the underbrush.

Jeff Bailey : 7/22/2005 10:02:12 AM

VIX.X 10.83 -1.27% ... DAILY Pivot Levels ... 9.96, 10.48, Piv = 10.84, 11.36, 11.72.

Linda Piazza : 7/22/2005 9:59:36 AM

The SOX did create a breakout signal on its 15-minute chart, during the first 15-minute period of the day. Looks as if we'll see a small-bodied candle at the top of a climb for the current 15-minute period, with this period finding support at the breakout level on that 15-minute chart, at 478.21. You know what to look for in the next 15-minute period--either a pullback that starts from here or the 480-ish area, erasing at least half the first 15-minute-period's gains or else a move higher that invalidates the potential reversal signal before it's even begun.

Jeff Bailey : 7/22/2005 9:58:04 AM

Hanover Compressor (HC) $12.83 +2.72% Link ... reports earnings Thursday.

Linda Piazza : 7/22/2005 9:57:19 AM

OEX still at the mid-channel level. Those old generals (big caps) sure aren't showing much strength (Keltner basis) when compared to other indices. Eventually, their stodgy behavior is going to quell the enthusiasm for the front-runners or the front-runners are going to take their hands and pull them along, too. So far, the generals are not budging.

Jeff Bailey : 7/22/2005 9:58:28 AM

Oil Service Sector Index (OSX.X) 157.26 +3.78% Link ... gaps to new 52-weeker at the open.

Linda Piazza : 7/22/2005 9:55:22 AM

TRAN at 3803.33, still not above yesterday's 3817.39 high.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/22/2005 9:54:47 AM

The Fed announces a 6.75B weekend repo to replace 13.5B expiring, for a net drain of 6.75B.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/22/2005 9:53:08 AM

Session high for 10-yr notes at 111 3/8, with TNX down 4.3 bps at 4.239%. Awaiting the Fed's decision as to its expiring 13.5B overnight repo.

Linda Piazza : 7/22/2005 9:54:32 AM

The RLX is now in a right-shoulder level for a potential H&S on its 15-minute chart. I'm watching this, not because I expect it to confirm, but rather so we can see how the index behaves with respect to this formation, as I mentioned yesterday in response to a readers' question about H&S's. Watching whether it's invalidated (as the SOX's was this morning) or confirmed tells us something about short-term bullish or bearish strength in this front-running index lately. A move much over 484 would invalidate the formation, with the RLX now at 484.10 and challenging the very top of an appropriate right-shoulder level. Yesterday's high was 484.98.

Jeff Bailey : 7/22/2005 9:53:53 AM

SanDisk (SNDK) $32.09 +13.51% Link .... surging after reporting a quarterly profit that edged down to $70.5 million, or $0.37 per share, from $70.6 million, or $0.38 per share, a year earlier.

Revenue rose 19% to $514.9 million from $433.3 million.

Consensus was looking for a profit of $0.32 on sales of $500.9 million.

Smith Barney upgrades to "buy" from "sell."

Linda Piazza : 7/22/2005 9:50:54 AM

RLX gaining now, joining the party, but not yet helping the OEX, which is still stuck at mid-channel range on its 15-minute Keltner channels. Next Keltner resistance is at 573.52 and 574.28 on 15-minute closes. The descending trendline off the 7/14 high is now at about 575.75, although that would now have to be described as a "best fit" trendline since there have been some punches above it. Those punches usually showed 15-minute closes back below it, though, so I'm going to keep it where it is. OEX beginning to move higher as I type.

Jeff Bailey : 7/22/2005 9:45:05 AM

Emerging Market Debt ... Merrill Lynch cuts their rating on emerging market debt to "market weight" from "overweight." Cuts Brazil's debt to "market weight" from "overweight."

Linda Piazza : 7/22/2005 9:43:35 AM

The RLX is above its open, but flat for the day, not yet showing its usual leadership role of late. The SOX is taking over the front-running bullish baton this morning.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/22/2005 9:43:01 AM

Volume breadth is positive, +1.6:1 on the NYSE, +1.69 on the Nasdaq, while DTN reports the r/t total put to call ratio at .75. These are neutral/bullish readings, which lines up with the short cycle upphase not yet entering overbought territory. Bears need to see a break below 72 SMA, confirmed by a move below 39.40 support (daily pivot).

Linda Piazza : 7/22/2005 9:42:15 AM

TRAN climbing today, but having some difficulty with 3800, so far, and hasn't yet topped yesterday's high.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/22/2005 9:40:21 AM

VXO 10.25, VXN 13.07

Linda Piazza : 7/22/2005 9:38:21 AM

OEX at mid-channel level, testing. The channel ranges from 570.68 on the bottom to 576.39 on the top.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/22/2005 9:36:19 AM

QQQQ breaks the premarket highs and is racing toward daily R1 at 39.59, currently violating the premarket upper 30 min keltner channel. Link

Linda Piazza : 7/22/2005 9:36:03 AM

The SOX is attempting a new breakout this morning on its 15-minute Keltner chart, which it will do with a 15-minute close above the Keltner line currently at 477.78, but being pushed higher by the SOX's rise. It's early in the day and in the first 15-minute period, but this is one level to watch.

Linda Piazza : 7/22/2005 9:33:58 AM

The SOX is above the 7/20 high, having narrowly avoided confirming a H&S on its 15-minute chart yesterday. This kind of zooming higher is typical when a bearish formation is averted.

Linda Piazza : 7/22/2005 9:32:43 AM

The OEX bounces from the ascending trendline begun at the 10:15 low on 7/20. It's still within that channel rattling around. It faces mid-channel keltner resistance, up to 574.15, but strongest near 573, but since the channels are in an equilibrium position, even apparently strong mid-channel S/R sometimes matters little as prices range from one side of the channel to the other.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/22/2005 9:32:30 AM

Crude oil finished the AM session +.525 at 57.65., off a low of 57.175.

Linda Piazza : 7/22/2005 9:31:07 AM

SOX headed up to test 7/20 high of 477.08, with the SOX currently at 475.82.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/22/2005 9:30:42 AM

QQQQ opens 3 cents above 72 SMA support at 39.44.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/22/2005 9:25:24 AM

Headlines:

09:22 *DJ Security Incident At London's Harrow Road - BBC

09:22 *DJ Police Snipers At London's Harrow Road - BBC

Jonathan Levinson : 7/22/2005 9:05:01 AM

Headline:

[GOOG] GOOGLE PRICE TARGET UPPED TO $400 VS $284 AT PRUDENTIAL

Jonathan Levinson : 7/22/2005 8:45:35 AM

The NQ futures printed a bearish kiss on the 10-day stochastic yesterday, the first since the upphase that launched off the July 7 London bombing. We have yet to see a pattern of lower lows and lower highs emerge on a daily basis, but the setup on the daily chart suggests that it could commence any day. Meanwhile, on an intraday basis, the 30 min cycle is turning up within the 60 min cycle, which is hanging on a confirmed bearish divergent sell signal. What I think is happening here is a sideways/"weightless" distribution top within the slowly-turning daily cycle. As the broader daily cycle channel flattens at the top and commences its turn, the intraday cycles within it become chopped up in the flat range. If this week's highs are significantly broken on a daily close, then it will suggest a very-bullish upside trending move. So long as that does not occur, bulls will want to keep their stops tight, and bears will be looking for lower daily lows to emerge. So far, there have been no 2-consecutive days of lower lows and lower highs since July 7. Should such occur, it would confirm a turn in the daily cycle.

Linda Piazza : 7/22/2005 8:39:56 AM

This chart is messy, but it shows what I see on the OEX (Note: there's an error on the annotations, as the apex level is 565, not 465).: Link Of course, the OEX could again travel all the way down to the bottom of this broadening formation, but I'm taking this step by step, since neither the RUT nor the RLX nor the Wilshire 5000 or perhaps many other indices have yet begun to break out of their steep rising regression channels. It's clear from recent action that bears need the OEX to break out of recent consolidation first, before any downside targets are addressed. A move below the ascending trendline off Wednesday's low, confirmed by either a move below Wednesday's 571.08 low or a 15-minute close below the Keltner line currently at 570.76, depending on whether you like Keltner or traditional trendlines, will be needed to show a breakdown. Be ready to switch sides quickly if such a breakdown occurs, however. Currently, futures show slightly modest gains, so we can't presume a breakdown this morning.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/22/2005 8:34:29 AM

Equities are recovering from negative territory, GOOG back up to 304.97 and QQQQ, NQ and YM printing session highs, QQQQ at 39.44. 72 SMA resistance is at 39.46 based on premarket data.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/22/2005 8:22:43 AM

Ten year notes are holding their gains at 111 13/64, while TNX is down 2.4 bps at 4.258%, retracing part of yesterday's gains and testing fib support on the daily chart: Link

Jonathan Levinson : 7/22/2005 7:38:24 AM

Equities are fractionally lower, ES trading 1229.5, NQ 1605, YM 10635 and QQQQ -.10 at 39.36. Gold and silver are at session highs, 426.6, silver 7.16, with ten year notes up 1/16 at 111 7/32, and crude oil +.325 at 57.45.

There are no major economic reports scheduled for today.

Linda Piazza : 7/22/2005 7:17:48 AM

Good morning. News is circulating this morning that police in London have shot a suspected suicide bomber, with the news being reported by several sources, but without much confirming information yet available. CNBC earlier confirmed that it was an incident "at a mosque" and that it's over, but both CNBC and another source now refer to a man shot after a chase from a subway station, so details are unclear. Another source says it was an attempt to avert a third day of bombing attacks today.

The Nikkei dropped last night due to currency concerns and reaction to the behavior of the U.S. bourses yesterday, among other factors. Other Asian markets were mixed. European markets decline. Our futures are modestly lower. As of 7:01 EST, gold was up $0.40, and crude, up $0.55 to $57.68. More detail about Asian and European markets follows in succeeding paragraphs.

The Nikkei dove in early trading. It closed off the LOD, but still down 91.68 points or 0.78%, at 11,695.05. The yen was on the move, too, paring back its gains as speculation hit the forex markets that the Japanese government would act to keep the yen from moving too strongly as a result of China's (and now, Malaysia's) decision to unpeg their currencies. One article called yesterday's yen move the biggest in three years, prompting that speculation that the government would act. Asian exporters were hit, with Japanese carmakers among those exporters suffering. Some Japanese news sources and Asian officials speculated that the ultimate effect on Japan's stock market would be limited. As of yet, China has not widened the yuan's range enough to cause too great an impact, some speculated.

Other Asian markets were mixed, with some miners outside China benefiting from the thought that their materials would be cheaper for China to buy, thus increasing demand for their metals. Some thought Hong Kong benefited from the decision not to unpeg its currency and the positive effects of China's revaluation. The Taiwan Weighted dropped 0.21%, and South Korea's Kospi eased 0.04%. Singapore's Straits Times rose 0.35%, and Hong Kong's Hang Seng climbed 1.14%. For now, Hong Kong does not plan to change its Linked Exchange rate system, a report noted. China's Shanghai Composite rose 2.52%.

Most European markets are lower this morning. In the U.K., second-quarter GDP met expectations. Also in the U.K., one report noted that Chancellor Brown's announced plan to change the fiscal calendar might have been a move to avoid violating his self-imposed borrowing limit, and that without the change, the budget would have fallen into a deficit. Such an event would have forced a raising of taxes or a trimming of spending in the next budget. In the twelve-country Eurozone, May's Industrial New Orders disappointed, dropping 1.5% month over month against a revised-higher figure in May. Year over year, demand dropped 3.3% after having risen in April. German, French and Italian numbers did improve, however, in a country-by-country breakdown. In Germany, the Brandenburg July CPI surprised to the upside, at a 0.5% month over month gain and 2.3% year over year gain. The core rate was steady at 1.7% year over year, with the inflation pressure for this German state and others coming from energy costs. At least one other German state will be reporting today.

Earnings reports included Schering's, with the company gaining after reporting. Part of its profit gain was due to a sale of a position in Medac GmbH, but the company reported that sales gained and costs were controlled. Operating profits beat Merrill Lynch's expectations, the firm announced. Norwegian telecom Telenor ASA dropped after reporting an increase in new income, revenue and mobile subscriptions, and anticipated that revenue, earnings before taxes, and adjusted profit will increase this year. Also in the telecom area, France Telecom declined after it announced a decision to buy Spain's Amena. Groupe Danone continued profit-taking after a recent run-up on speculation about a bid that has of yet failed to materialize. Other deals were in the works. The U.S.'s private-equity firm Starwood Capital will buy a controlling position in champagne maker Taittinger SA and hotelier Societe du Louvre, the company announced, and both the companies being acquired dropped. Retailer Carrefour will acquire France's Penny Market, and will also sell its one operations unit to TransGourmet. French electrical products group Schneider Electric will buy Bei Technologies in a move to improve its position in customized sensors market. The U.S.'s DirecTV Group Inc. will buy Pace Micro Technology's set-top box products in 2006.

Broker action included J.P. Morgan's trimming of Nokia's rating to an underweight one. Morgan Stanley dropped EADS to an underweight rating. Dresdner Kleinwort Wasserstein upgraded Michelin to a hold rating.

As of 7:06 EST, the FTSE 100 was lower by 17 points or 0.33%, at 5,204.60, near its LOD. The CAC 40 was lower by 25.23 points or 0.57%, at 4,400.43. The DAX was lower by 10.78 points or 0.22%, at 4,819.09.

Market Monitor Archives