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OI Technical Staff : 7/25/2005 9:59:59 PM

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Jeff Bailey : 7/25/2005 9:10:47 PM

Semiconductor HOLDRs (SMH) $36.98 -0.64% ... last tick was higher at $37.42, up 1.18% from its close. WEEKLY Pivot Levels ... $35.97, $36.60, Piv = $37.17, $37.80, 38.37.

Jeff Bailey : 7/25/2005 9:08:38 PM

Texas Instruments (TXN) $30.60 -0.52% ... last tick in extended session was $32.35, up 5.7% from its close.

Jeff Bailey : 7/25/2005 9:07:04 PM

Program Trading Levels for Tuesday ... HL Camp & Company has their computers set for program buying at $+3.91 and set for program selling at $+1.72.

Jeff Bailey : 7/25/2005 9:00:33 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/25/2005 8:55:44 PM

Weekly/Monthly Pivot Matrix found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/25/2005 8:50:47 PM

Closing Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/25/2005 8:47:53 PM

Closing U.S. Market Watch found at this Link ... September Crude Oil futures (cl05u) settled up 35 cents, or 0.60% at $59.00.

Linda Piazza : 7/25/2005 3:59:03 PM

The RLX is now testing those important 15-minute 100/130-ema's. I'm looking forward to looking at charts tonight and seeing what I see. I continued to see the OEX rattle around within that same old channel, though. I'm sure of that.

Linda Piazza : 7/25/2005 3:53:03 PM

Well, it looks as if we have a question to be answered tomorrow morning. Will or won't the OEX break through that channel. Those holding bearish OEX positions should be aware of the risk that the OEX could bounce up through that channel again.

Linda Piazza : 7/25/2005 3:43:13 PM

OEX still below 572.93 next Keltner resistance, above 571.60 next Keltner support.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/25/2005 3:42:39 PM

QQQQ volume is up to all of 45.1M shares, truly abysmal volume. Price is off 18 cents at 39.24, and despite the bearish feel, the price has mostly adhered to Friday's range. During this time, the 30 min cycle indicators have slide to their most oversold level in nearly 3 weeks, while the 60 min cycle is still early in its rollover. This would actually look quite bullish, were it not for the preliminary bearish cross on the overbought 10-day stochastic. Bears need to see a lower high/weak 30 min cycle upphase tomorrow, or a strong break of Friday's lows from here.

Linda Piazza : 7/25/2005 3:28:34 PM

OEX tries to bounce from that Keltner channel support that's been supporting it for more than week, now at 571.59. As long as the OEX continues producing 15-minute closes beneath the Keltner line currently at 573.05, it's vulnerable to more tests of that support. However, bears should have an idea what they want to do here. I count four other tests of this channel line since the 18th, and all have so far prompted bounces up toward the top channel line again. This feels a little different, mainly because the RLX is weaker and I doubted other breakdowns as long as the RLX was holding up so well. However, the RLX tests round-number support at 480, and, as I type, I notice the SOX again attempting a bounce from its 15-minute 100/130-ema's, averages that have prompted bounces on the SOX since 7/07. SOX bears will want to be particularly attentive here and don't want to see the SOX bounce far.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/25/2005 3:19:28 PM

QQQQ jumps back above daiyl S1, now testing resistance at the previous 39.28 lows. A break from here would close a short cycle bullish divergence and likely set up a break above the 72 SMA- if the bulls can clear the 39.28 level: Link

Linda Piazza : 7/25/2005 3:11:39 PM

The SOX's sideways down decline today is bringing it deeper within Friday morning's gap. Be particularly watchful at 470 and slightly below, the bottom of the gap, for potential gap support. The decline off Friday's high has the slightest hint of a bullish falling wedge look to it. We know that the bearish version of these wedges (a wedge has sides that slant the same direction, a triangle doesn't) hasn't worked well to predict breakout direction, and perhaps will soon see if the bullish version does any better.

Linda Piazza : 7/25/2005 3:02:29 PM

OEX testing that 15-minute channel boundary that's supported the OEX for more than a week. It would take a 15-minute close below 571.66 to set the new downside target of 568.19. OEX at 571.99 as I type.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/25/2005 3:02:23 PM

Ten year note yields finished +2.4 bps at 4.247%.

Linda Piazza : 7/25/2005 3:02:04 PM

OEX testing that 15-minute channel boundary that's supported the OEX for more than a week. It would take a 15-minute close below 571.66 to set the new downside target of 568.19. OEX at 571.99 as I type.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/25/2005 3:00:40 PM

Volume breadth reaching its worst levels of the session, -1.91 for the NYSE, -1.81 for the Nasdaq. QQQQ is just now reaching 39.7M shares' volume.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/25/2005 2:59:05 PM

QQQQ testing Friday's low now. Although today's high was above Friday's, a lower closing low would qualify as a bearish engulfing/outside key reversal day on the daily chart.

Linda Piazza : 7/25/2005 2:57:05 PM

The OEX still looks vulnerable to 571.80, the channel support that has held for more than a week on the OEX's 15-minute chart. OEX at 572.74 as I type. Bears should know how they'll handle a test of that level.

Linda Piazza : 7/25/2005 2:53:11 PM

TRAN moving down, but just sort of ambling down. No follow-through on the H&S on the 15-minute chart, so there's the possibility that the TRAN will steady at the current 3746-ish level and rise into another right shoulder before we know whether that's going to be confirmed or invalidated.

Linda Piazza : 7/25/2005 2:51:05 PM

Oh, forgot to mention that the OEX of course confirmed its H&S, but it's one forming in the middle of a consolidation zone, so I'm not going to talk about targets, because that would be unreliable, but it does show us something about bullish versus bearish short-term sentiment.

Linda Piazza : 7/25/2005 2:47:21 PM

As long as the OEX is producing 15-minute closes below 573.70 and particularly below 573.42, it remains vulnerable to a test of the lower channel boundary at 571.84. The OEX is at 572.99 as I type.

Linda Piazza : 7/25/2005 2:46:57 PM

As long as the OEX is producing 15-minute closes below 573.70 and particularly below 573.42, it remains vulnerable to a test of the lower channel boundary at 571.84. The OEX is at 572.99 as I type.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/25/2005 2:44:59 PM

Volume breadth still only lightly negative, -1.46:1 on the NYSE and -1.37:1 on the Nasdaq. Volume on QQQQ is as light as I've ever seen it for this time of day, 37.95M shares so far.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/25/2005 2:41:06 PM

VXO 10.37, VXN 13.65. Fear remains trapped in the cellar.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/25/2005 2:40:20 PM

Sept. crude oil finished +.35 at 59.00, off a high of 59.025.

Linda Piazza : 7/25/2005 2:38:13 PM

Those who risked a bearish OEX play on a test of that upper channel line this morning have been rewarded. Now they need to have profit-protecting plans in place for 571.81, if the bottom of the channel line again holds the OEX. If it doesn't on 15-minute closes, the next Keltner target has risen to 568.23.

Linda Piazza : 7/25/2005 2:36:44 PM

The RLX has finally erased that breakout signal on the 30-minute chart. Watch for potential RLX support at 479.20-480. Those wanting a stronger OEX pullback would rather not see any RLX bounce, but would want it to be into a lower high if it does occur.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/25/2005 2:35:31 PM

Session low for ten year notes at 111 7/32, TNX at 4.252%.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/25/2005 2:36:02 PM

This is the second time in a week that I've been surprised to see a short cycle upphase rev up out of a base, break the highs, and then fall flat on its face. QQQQ is back to the session lows. In weeks previous, this move would have retraced the entire day's losses and would be sending bears clutching for their Tums fruit-flavoreds. Price is resting on daily S1, with 30 and 60 min channel support again lining up at that key 39.20 level: Link

Linda Piazza : 7/25/2005 2:26:53 PM

The RLX is threatening to erase its breakout signal on the 30-minute chart for the first time since the 18th. Note that this means that it's also testing support that has held since the 18th. That breakout signal would be erased on a 30-minute close beneath the Keltner line currently at 482.59, with the RLX at 482.30 as I type.

Linda Piazza : 7/25/2005 2:24:34 PM

The OEX has not yet confirmed that H&S on its five-minute chart, and rose from just above the neckline level. Bulls are trying to invalidate that formation, but haven't yet been successful in doing that, any more than bears have been successful in confirming it.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/25/2005 2:11:56 PM

Stepping away for 10 minutes here.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/25/2005 2:11:25 PM

Sept. crude oil is up 15 cents here at 58.80, 12.5 cents off its high and 1.1 off its high. This looks like very bullish action, with the session low right at opening gap support: Link

Linda Piazza : 7/25/2005 2:03:17 PM

OEX coming down to test the 573.40-ish level that now markets the H&S neckline for its H&S on the five-minute chart. Remember that this is the point at which H&S's are sometimes rejected.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/25/2005 2:01:27 PM

Session low for GOOG here 297.62, QQQQ 1 cent away at 39.29.

Linda Piazza : 7/25/2005 1:55:03 PM

The TRAN sure hasn't done much with its H&S from this morning, as seen on the 15-minute chart. Minimally confirmed the thing, dropped minimally, and now rises to retest the neckline without ever falling very far.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/25/2005 1:52:30 PM

QQQQ has bounced above its previous highs, popping out of a small reverse head and shoulders at the bottom of the decline from the 10:45 high. The short cycle oscillators are back on a buy signal from oversold territory, with the bulls' first goal the 72 SMA at 39.41 to stall the 30 min channel downphase: Link

Linda Piazza : 7/25/2005 1:51:00 PM

Note the potential for a H&S on top of the OEX's five-minute chart, with the head at today's high, shoulders at this morning's first five-minute high and at the current level. A break much above 575.20 would probably invalidate the formation, while the neckline is at about 573.36, but still descending.

Linda Piazza : 7/25/2005 1:44:15 PM

OEX testing first 15-minute Keltner resistance at 574.26. It's caught between this first Keltner resistance and Keltner support just below.

Linda Piazza : 7/25/2005 1:28:06 PM

The DJUSHB fell low enough to have broken down out of its bear flag, but it hasn't confirmed by a new low below Thursday's, so perhaps it's still just widening that flag. Too early to be sure, and it perhaps tries for a test of 1088-1092 resistance. It's at 1086.74 as I type.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/25/2005 1:21:00 PM

Volume breadth holds barely negative, -1.14:1 on the NYSE and -1.29:1 on the Nasdaq.

Linda Piazza : 7/25/2005 1:20:22 PM

Still no erasure of the RLX's 30-minute breakout signal.

Linda Piazza : 7/25/2005 1:19:05 PM

As long as the OEX continues printing 15-minute closes beneath the Keltner line currently at 574.26, it's likely to go on hammering away at support, down to 573.40 on the 15-minute chart.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/25/2005 1:16:34 PM

Although I only have quarterly averages for the Treasury auctions from 2000 to Q1-2005, this appears to have been the weakest demand and highest yield for the 13-week and 26-week auctions going back to 2000.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/25/2005 1:11:12 PM

The Treasury's 36B in 13- and 26-week auctions is complete. The 13-week auction generated a bid to cover ratio of 1.94, at a high-rate of of 3.345%, while the 26-week auction yielded a high rate of 3.54% and a bid to cover of 1.93. Foreign central banks took 9.1B of the total.

Linda Piazza : 7/25/2005 1:05:13 PM

The TRAN appeared to confirm the H&S on its 15-minute chart, but it hasn't made any headway to the downside after doing so. That's a danger sign to bears who want to see that follow-through.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/25/2005 1:00:51 PM

QQQQ is back to the 39.30 low, the 30 and 60 min channel bottoms lower to the 39.25 area as the short cycle indicators max out in oversold territory. These cycles trend more easily than their longer counterparts, which are in gear to the downside. Below 39.22, the short cycle will be in a confirmed oversold trending move as the longer cycles overpower their anticipated bounce. Link

Jonathan Levinson : 7/25/2005 12:57:42 PM

Sept. crude -.05 at 58.60 here, off a low of 57.70: Link

Linda Piazza : 7/25/2005 12:57:42 PM

That 472-ish support that I just mentioned on the SOX includes the 15-minute 100/130-ema's at 471.39 and 469.89, respectively.

Linda Piazza : 7/25/2005 12:56:49 PM

The RLX still maintains its 30-minute Keltner breakout signal. No change in tenor there yet.

Linda Piazza : 7/25/2005 12:55:35 PM

SOX 472-ish support tentatively holding.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/25/2005 12:54:48 PM

Session low for ten year notes at 111 19/64, TNX back to a 1.9 bp gain at 4.242%, bouncing from above 4.2% support.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/25/2005 12:47:29 PM

Stepping away for 10 minutes.

Linda Piazza : 7/25/2005 12:47:05 PM

The OEX drifts rather languidly toward next Keltner support, at 573.39-573.91. The chart setup doesn't give strong clues as to whether the OEX is likely to find support at this mid-channel level or drift down to the 571.83 level that marks the bottom of this channel that's held the OEX for more than a week now. Support looks a little stronger than nearby resistance, suggesting that a bounce to test resistance is possible, but it's not even enough stronger to assess the probability of a resistance test.

Linda Piazza : 7/25/2005 12:39:01 PM

Since July 5, the SOX has been bouncing from tests of its 15-minute 100/130-ema's, with those averages now at 471.36 and 469.84, and the SOX at 472.10. A sustained failure below these averages would be another indication of a change in short-term tenor.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/25/2005 12:37:46 PM

GE and QQQQ are sitting on session lows, GE -.74% at 34.81 and underperforming the indices this morning.

Linda Piazza : 7/25/2005 12:36:31 PM

RUT not pulling up yet at the potential H&S neckline level, unless it's going to form a descending neckline. Watch for a quick bounce up toward and above 676 as a sign that the right-shoulder-building bounce might have begun, though.

Linda Piazza : 7/25/2005 12:35:03 PM

TRAN testing the neckline for its H&S. This thing can zoom either way, higher on a rejection or lower on a confirmation, once it's clear which direction it's going.

Linda Piazza : 7/25/2005 12:34:17 PM

SOX testing Friday's low, just inching below as I type. It's still in Friday's big gap, though, and watch for potential gap support to take hold any time. Bears want the SOX driven below that gap and out of the latest short-term ascending regression channel.

Linda Piazza : 7/25/2005 12:30:57 PM

RLX still hasn't erased its breakout signal on the 30-minute chart, holding now since the 18th.

Linda Piazza : 7/25/2005 12:29:38 PM

The TRAN, sometimes driving out in front of other indices, already has a potential H&S on its 15-minute chart, neckline at about 3761.50 and about to be tested. The TRAN is at 3764.82 as I type.

Linda Piazza : 7/25/2005 12:28:33 PM

RUT testing a potential neckline area for a possible H&S, if the RUT should bounce from this potential support level.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/25/2005 12:28:30 PM

Friday's low is 11 cents away for QQQQ, but 30 and 60 min channel support are now in play with the short cycle indicators oversold: Link

Jonathan Levinson : 7/25/2005 12:27:11 PM

Volume breadth has gone negative on both exchanges, -1.14:1 on the NYSE and -1.08:1 on the Nasdaq. QQQQ has just surpassed 1/3 of Friday's light 71.7M share volume.

Linda Piazza : 7/25/2005 12:25:16 PM

RUT dropping toward 676. Remember that potential H&S scenario on the RUT, with such a scenario including a potential bounce from near or just under 676.

Linda Piazza : 7/25/2005 12:24:09 PM

SOX dropping toward Friday's support zone, beginning at about 472.50 and extending down to 472. SOX at 473.08 as I type.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/25/2005 12:21:51 PM

Session low for QQQQ and NQ here on light volume.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/25/2005 12:17:52 PM

QQQQ is hugging the daily pivot below the 39.46 72-SMA. The short cycle downphase is reaching oversold territory, while 30 min cycle channel and indicators head lower from this morning's 10:45AM peak. The 60 min channel is directionless at this point, and I expect the ambiguity to grow until either the Friday low or today's high has been broken. Volume is so light within this chop zone that direction looks like a bare coin toss to me- particularly with the daily cycle upphase stalled and awaiting either a downward turn or an upward trending push.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/25/2005 12:14:07 PM

VXO 10.20, VXN 13.49

Linda Piazza : 7/25/2005 12:07:22 PM

The OEX has now (tentatively) set up a retest of the 573.30-574.00 Keltner mid-channel support. The OEX is at 574.72 as I type.

Linda Piazza : 7/25/2005 12:06:23 PM

The Wilshire 5000 has been declining the last hour, now testing 15-minute Keltner support. It looks vulnerable to a further pullback, but perhaps not until after a retest of 12,350-12,360-ish resistance. The DWC is at 12,346.00 as I type.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/25/2005 12:06:07 PM

Ten year notes have gone positive, TNX down .3 bps at 4.22%. The Treasury will be auctioning 36B in 13-week and 26-week bills today, the results of which are expected shortly after 1PM.

Linda Piazza : 7/25/2005 11:57:26 AM

The RLX has not erased its breakout level on its 30-minute chart. Hasn't even tested that (current) 482.06 level yet today. The RLX is at 483.91 as I type.

Linda Piazza : 7/25/2005 11:53:03 AM

For what it's worth, the advdec line has confirmed its H&S.

Linda Piazza : 7/25/2005 11:49:51 AM

Those involved in RUT plays should be watchful if the RUT should descend toward 676. The 15-minute chart shows the potential for a H&S with a neckline at or a little below that level, so watch for a potential bounce up into a right-shoulder level if 676 should be hit.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/25/2005 11:49:32 AM

Volume hasn't picked up appreciably, and price is testing a higher low at 39.40 with volume breadth +1.12:1 on the NYSE and +1.43:1 on the Nasdaq. The price action intraday looks more bearish to me than breadth would suggest, as the move to the high was sold pretty much straight down and price is holding below the 72 SMA. Channel support lines up at 39.33, 72 SMA resistance at 39.47. Link

Linda Piazza : 7/25/2005 11:47:59 AM

Potential H&S now on the advdec line. If I see a formation like this on the advdec line, I watch it, too, to tell me something about sentiment. For example, this morning's brief rally was corroborated by a neckline break of the advdec line on an inverse H&S. So, those hoping for any short-term declines on the equities would like to see them corroborated by a neckline break of this potential H&S. A climb of the advdec line much above 300-320 would possibly invalidate the formation, however, with the number currently at 166. Remember that this is a short-term indicator only.

Linda Piazza : 7/25/2005 11:44:19 AM

The OEX pierced first 15-minute Keltner support, but hasn't closed beneath it and may not by the end of this 15-minute period in a couple of minutes. That level is at 574.92, with the OEX at 574.98. Just as bulls needed to see more than a tepid breakout, bears need to see more than tepid violation of this line on a 15-minute close.

Linda Piazza : 7/25/2005 11:39:14 AM

I couldn't ever get my link to work on the RUT's daily Keltner chart, but the annotations noted that daily Keltner resistance was so far holding, but that those wanting to see a pullback wanted a daily close beneath 667.70-668.96. The RUT is at 677.13 as I type.

Linda Piazza : 7/25/2005 11:31:11 AM

I've talked about the RLX's breakout signal on the 30-minute Keltner chart, but there's another level to watch--the level of the sharply ascending trendline off the 7/07 low. That trendline now crosses at about 480.80 if I've drawn it correctly, but I'd certainly want until a drop below the 479 level, a level that twice provided support, before I believed too strongly that the trendline's support had been broken. The 30-minute breakout signal would be erased on a 30-minute close beneath 481.95.

Linda Piazza : 7/25/2005 11:27:54 AM

RUT at 678.14 as I type. Probably needs to close as near 678 or below it by the end of this 30-minute period to complete that tweezers-top reversal signal. Oh . . . at 678.03 as I type with a few minutes to go.

Linda Piazza : 7/25/2005 11:24:01 AM

The OEX's 15-minute Keltner resistance still holds, but so does the support of the best-fit descending trendline off the 7/14 high. Fifteen-minute Keltner support is cycling up, too, to meet that trendline's support. Unless there's a 15-minute close beneath that Keltner line currently at 574.95, it looks as if there's a fight in the works between bulls and bears.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/25/2005 11:22:23 AM

The SPX printed a high at 1238 this morning, at levels not seen since summer 2001.

Linda Piazza : 7/25/2005 11:18:59 AM

The RUT did not complete its potential evening-star formation to bears' satisfaction, not dropping to or below 678 by the close of the last 15-minute period. However, it still eases a little as I type, and a close of the current 15-minute period below or at 678 would complete a tweezers-top formation on the 30-minute chart. Still really iffy to jump into a conclusion that will happen, though. The RUT is at 678.53 as I type.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/25/2005 11:18:28 AM

50-tick chart of Sept. crude oil at this Link

Linda Piazza : 7/25/2005 11:13:32 AM

The RLX maintains its breakout status on its 30-minute Keltner chart, but it's having trouble doing so on the 15-minute chart. It's the 30-minute that counts for the RLX, though.

Linda Piazza : 7/25/2005 11:10:11 AM

The DJUSHB just failed at its most recent attempt to break above the 50% retracement of 7/20 fall into the 7/21 low and also above 1,100.00, with the two within a point of each other. It hasn't fallen far yet, however, at 1,096.54 as I type.

Linda Piazza : 7/25/2005 11:07:39 AM

OEX breaking back below the Keltner channel line signaling a breakout. I knew I didn't trust that breakout, but the OEX has so far just come back to retest the best-fit descending trendline off the 7/14 high. A 15-minute close below the line currently at 574.80 would be needed to confirm that it's failed at its test of that resistance, I think. The OEX is at 575.29 as I type.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/25/2005 11:06:47 AM

QQQQ extends its retreat from daily R1 and the 30/60 min channels, returning to the top of the early morning rnge at 39.50. 72 SMA support has risen to 39.47: Link

Linda Piazza : 7/25/2005 11:05:39 AM

Potential reversal signal in the making on the RUT, with a tall white candle followed by a doji in the last 30-minute period, and now a small pullback. The RUT does sometimes complete and honor these reversal signals, as it did 7/20, for example, but a move to a new high invalidates that potential signal, of course. Those hoping for a pullback want to see the RUT erase all the 10:30 candle's gains, closing this 15-minute period near or below 678.

Linda Piazza : 7/25/2005 11:02:09 AM

OEX close right at the channel top that we've been watching so long for the OEX. Technically, it's a breakout on that close, although by only $0.12. Other indices haven't needed strong confirmation, but on the 20th, the OEX spent about 30 minutes or less above this same confirmation level and dropped back to rattle around within that channel, so I just can't consider it fully confirmed yet with that tepid of a breakout signal.

Linda Piazza : 7/25/2005 10:58:02 AM

The BIX did break close above the same 15-minute Keltner resistance that the OEX now tests, but only by a minimal amount. It's still above its breakout level, but pulling back during the current 15-minute period, so the breakout is questionable. Lately, even questionable breakout signals have seen follow-through, so take this "questionable-ness" with a grain of salt.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/25/2005 10:57:55 AM

August gold is holding its 1 dollar gain at 426.20, 20 cents off the high. The daily cycle upphase has confirmed with a Macd cross on the daily chart, suggesting a break of current resistance to target 429 resistance next. 422.5-423 is support immediately below.

Linda Piazza : 7/25/2005 10:56:40 AM

OEX pulling back below that 15-minute Keltner resistance line, with the current 15-minute candle leaving only a candle shadow above it. So far, the resistance holds, although the 15-minute period is not completed.

Linda Piazza : 7/25/2005 10:55:17 AM

The DJUSHB looks as if it's been climbing in a bear flag off the 7/21 low. It's rising again to retest the 1,100 level, however, at 1,099.09. 1,099.07 is at about the 50% retracement of the decline off the 7/20 high into the 7/20 low.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/25/2005 10:55:02 AM

QQQQ volume remains extremely light despite the quick upside surge, with just 16.5M shares traded as we approach 11AM. The lunchtime lull could be positively... cadaverous.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/25/2005 10:54:01 AM

Ten year notes are back to unchanged, TNX flat at 4.223%.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/25/2005 10:53:16 AM

Sept. crude oil +.80 at 57.925 here.

Linda Piazza : 7/25/2005 10:53:03 AM

You had to know it happened: RLX hit a new HOD.

Linda Piazza : 7/25/2005 10:52:41 AM

SOX back below 477. Fifteen-minute Keltner resistance is holding so far, but still plenty of time left in this 15-minute period.

Linda Piazza : 7/25/2005 10:52:03 AM

The OEX is trying for a 15-minute close above the Keltner line currently at 575.77. It's at 576.20, with many minutes left in this 15-minute period. Bulls want to be careful of a tepid 15-minute close above that Keltner line, especially with the OEX then moving into a strong resistance band and about to face the 7/20 high of 577.03, but a possibility of a setting of a 578.76 upside target exists. Be careful.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/25/2005 10:48:57 AM

QQQQ has just broken Friday's lower high.

Linda Piazza : 7/25/2005 10:48:49 AM

RUT daily Keltner resistance at 680.84 and 682.85 on daily closes. RUT at 679.46.

Linda Piazza : 7/25/2005 10:47:55 AM

SOX above 477, approaching 15-minute Keltner resistance from 477.10-478.09 on 15-minute closes. Some signs of Keltner-style bearish divergence there, but if it's to hold, the SOX won't get much further than 480.61. Daily Keltner resistance at 478.01 on a daily closing basis.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/25/2005 10:47:24 AM

Volume breadth +1.65:1 on the NYSE, +2.07:1 on the Nasdaq. VXO 10.06, VXN 13.46.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/25/2005 10:45:14 AM

QQQQ has popped higher again, breaking the prior high and approaching daily R1 at 39.63. This level matches the current 30 and 60 min channel tops as well: Link

Linda Piazza : 7/25/2005 10:45:09 AM

No equal high for the RUT. Approaching 680, at 679.10 as I type.

Linda Piazza : 7/25/2005 10:44:05 AM

Just noticed that the QCharts version of the advdec line, at least, has just confirmed an inverse H&S.

Linda Piazza : 7/25/2005 10:43:36 AM

The OEX retests that best-fit descending trendline off the 7/14 high, but hasn't confirmed by a 15-minute close above the Keltner line currently at 575.61.

Linda Piazza : 7/25/2005 10:42:52 AM

New HOD for the SOX.

Jane Fox : 7/25/2005 10:38:51 AM

Dateline WSJ Sales of existing homes set a new record in July with home prices shooting up at the fastest pace in nearly 25 years.

The National Association of Realtors reported Monday that existing homes were sold at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 7.33 million units last month, a gain of 2.7% from the May sales pace. The torrid sales pace helped to push the median price of an existing home up to a record of $219,000 last month, a gain of 14.7% from the median, or midpoint, for prices a year ago. It was the biggest jump in prices since November 1980.

Linda Piazza : 7/25/2005 10:37:03 AM

Like some other indices, the DJUSHB, the Dow Jones US Home Construction Index, has a steeply ascending regression channel visible on its intraday charts, with a 240-minute chart best for viewing the DJUSHB's. It's risen off an early May low. Currently, the DJUSHB is hugging the midline of that rising regression channel after hitting the top on 7/20. It's been having difficulty with 1,100 this morning, currently at 1,095.92. Bottom support is near 1,060 with top resistance now near 1,132. This is another index that might have pulled back, but sure hasn't yet violated its trend. A real pullback in the markets is going to require some of these high fliers to rest a bit, I think, and they're not really flagging yet.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/25/2005 10:35:50 AM

Bonds have firmed in the wake of the second repo announcement as well, with ZN futures now up 1/16 at 111 31/64, TNX down to a 0.7 bp gain at 4.23%.

Linda Piazza : 7/25/2005 10:28:42 AM

The RUT is trying to break out of its three-day consolidation zone. The top of its rising regression channel in place since late April is now at about 686, with the RUT now at 678.01, still in testing territory and not confirming the breakout yet, I don't think. The RUT has daily Keltner resistance at 682.69, and daily Keltner resistance has been holding on the RUT.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/25/2005 10:26:29 AM

There it is- another 5.5B added via overnight repo, for a net add of 4.75B on the day.

Linda Piazza : 7/25/2005 10:26:23 AM

RUT retesting the 7/20 high of 677.87, a little above that now, at 677.98. Bulls haven't given up here.

Linda Piazza : 7/25/2005 10:25:31 AM

BIX retesting 15-minute Keltner resistance, the same resistance level that the OEX has been testing this morning. That's at 368.56 on 15-minute closes for the BIX, with the BIX at 368.44 as I type. OEX bulls and bears might keep a watch on the BIX, too, to see how it does with this test, as the BIX is important to the OEX's behavior, too.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/25/2005 10:24:19 AM

Session high for August gold here, +.80 at 426 as QQQQ spikes back above the 72 SMA on a small burst of volume. Volume breadth has flipped back positive for the NYSE, but direction remains up for grabs.

Linda Piazza : 7/25/2005 10:22:58 AM

They must be spending some of that money (see Jane's post about the ticks) on the SOX stocks, as the SOX is powering up to the top of that consolidation zone in which it's been trading since the first hour of the day on Friday. It tried a break of that zone earlier this morning and fell back, with a day's high at 476.34, and the SOX now at 475.75.

Linda Piazza : 7/25/2005 10:20:58 AM

So far, the OEX finds support on the first Keltner support on that 15-minute chart (see my 10:08 post) without confirming a likely pullback to central channel support. As long as that support is holding, the OEX might continue to test the resistance instead.

Linda Piazza : 7/25/2005 10:18:45 AM

I don't think CME has reacted the same, Jonathan. It's been range-bound for a while, but back a month ago was sure getting pumped up, presumably by short-covering and/or real buying whenever good news would be announced. However, the gains were huge and even drops that looked as if they were going to see follow through were soon reversed. I don't think it's showing the same correlation, but your post just got me to wondering, as there are a number of stocks that are/were seeing unbelievable gains like that.

Linda Piazza : 7/25/2005 10:16:22 AM

RLX a couple of points off the day's high, but still above the breakout level on its 30-mintue chart. Thirty-minute breakout support at 481.16 on a 30-minute close. RLX currently at 483.28.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/25/2005 10:15:53 AM

Linda, it's just a gut-feeling, because we can't know what the dealers are buying or selling with their daily repo money. But GOOG often reacts sharply on the 10AM announcement. I'll start watching CME as well.

Linda Piazza : 7/25/2005 10:14:32 AM

The SOX hasn't broken out of that consolidation zone in which it's traded since the first hour of trading Friday. Whether that's an attempted inverse H&S or just a rectangular consolidation zone, the SOX is trading sideways. If that should continue, it should hit the side of its short-term rising regression channel by mid-morning tomorrow, and a sideways movement all the way to test that support would be bullish. A decline would be less so, but there's gap support from Friday morning that may be propping the SOX up just now. Bears or even bulls who just want weak hands shaken out before they take a new entry want to see the SOX break through that channel into a deeper pullback. The short-term channel's lower boundary is now at about 469.75.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/25/2005 10:14:18 AM

Volume breadth has gone negative on the NYSE, -1.32:1, but remains positive at 1.24:1 on the Nasdaq.

Linda Piazza : 7/25/2005 10:10:25 AM

Jonathan, after your 10:03 post, I checked CME, which has also been goosed a lot lately, by whom, I don't know. It's been dropping today, too, now trading just above 300, having just tested Friday's low.

Linda Piazza : 7/25/2005 10:08:49 AM

Here's what the OEX's 15-minute Keltner picture suggests. Keltner resistance at 575.42 held, contingent on a decline below the 15-minute support at 573.96 and a 15-minute close there. Pending that condition being met, it looks vulnerable to a pullback to the 573-ish zone, and perhaps even to 572 or the bottom of the channel, at 570.98. In other words, the OEX is still rattling around within that channel.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/25/2005 10:08:12 AM

So far no followup to the 8-day repo, and no increase in volume either, with 9.19M QQQQs traded so far. Crude oil has reopened, trading +.8 at 57.925, off a high of 58.875.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/25/2005 10:04:34 AM

QQQQ loses 72 SMA support, printing a low at 39.40. Channel support is at 39.35 for the 30 min cycle, 39.28 for the 60.

Linda Piazza : 7/25/2005 10:04:02 AM

The Wilshire 5000 has been doing battle with 15-minute Keltner resistance today, at 12,253.97 on 15-minute closes. The DWC is at 12,326.08 as I type, pulling back to test 12,321.72 potential support. Support thins somewhat, though, so it's not certain what might catch the DWC.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/25/2005 10:03:48 AM

The Fed announces a 6B 8-day repo, for a net drain of 750M, but leaving the door open for an overnight repo to follow. Nonetheless, GOOG, which I theorize to be the Fed dealers' darling, has just dropped to a session low, dowm over 1.25% to 298.36.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/25/2005 10:02:36 AM



Linda Piazza : 7/25/2005 10:02:08 AM

I don't know if all of you caught Jeff's late-night post last night, but he will be out of the MM today. His dog had an accident that broke a hip and a front leg and had to be transported to a specialized veterinary hospital for a couple of surgeries. Jeff said he hoped to be back tomorrow. Only his beloved dog could keep him away, I think. We wish him and Drake the best.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/25/2005 10:02:23 AM




Expectations were for Existing Sales to come in at 7.15M.

Linda Piazza : 7/25/2005 10:00:01 AM

OEX resistance still holds. Although the RLX ha pulled back a little off the day's high, its behavior continues to make me wary of presuming that the OEX's resistance will continue to hold, but those who have more faith have a pretty good make-or-break point here with the OEX at the top of the channel that's been containing it all this time.

Linda Piazza : 7/25/2005 9:57:27 AM

The RUT absolutely has not given up on that equal-high test. There is Keltner resistance on 15-minute closes at 677.09, and the RUT appears to be having trouble with that, looking as if a pullback toward 675.85-674.42 might be possible if that resistance continues to hold. So far, though, there's nothing particularly cheering here for bears and won't be unless the RUT begins dropping through support levels.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/25/2005 9:51:52 AM

Volume is extremely light here- 6.8M QQQQs traded so far, less than half of what we saw at by this time of day during last week's heavier days. This feels like a seamless extension of the premarket (in)action. At 10AM, we get the Existing Home Sales report, and the Fed's open market announcement regarding the 6.75B expiring weekend repo is due as well.

Linda Piazza : 7/25/2005 9:50:03 AM

So far, the descending trendline off the 7/14 high (best fit version) and the 575.36 Keltner resistance on the 15-minute chart are holding the OEX. Still a tentative hold, I'd think, with the RLX doing what it's doing. The BIX had tried to rise this morning, but faces the same Keltner resistance that the OEX does, and is so far turning down from that resistance.

The TRAN is rising to retest the neckline of its H&S, confirmed last week, and I believe it's doing so before meeting the downside target.

Linda Piazza : 7/25/2005 9:47:30 AM

There may be an inverse H&S trying to form on the SOX's 15-minute chart, at the bottom of the decline off Friday's early-morning high. This wouldn't really be a bottoming formation, though, as it's occurring within a rising regression channel (short-term one, not the one on the weekly chart), so it's not a reliable formation. Watching it can still tell us something about short-term sentiment. The neckline is roughly at 476, with an attempt made already this morning to push above that. The head is at Friday's low, so a drop below 472 invalidates the formation.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/25/2005 9:47:19 AM

QQQQ's challenging 72 SMA support here, with the short cycle drifting sideways-lower. Volume breadth is holding positive, and until we see a clear break of support, the benefit of the doubt on an intraday basis goes to the bulls. 3-day/3 min chart at this Link

Linda Piazza : 7/25/2005 9:45:00 AM

The RLX is now above its 7/21 high. So much for fitted retracement bracket work last week, but this would still work if the RLX turns around soon. Not counting on that, of course. You can't kill his one, it seems, although the rally seems so extended by Keltner standards.

Linda Piazza : 7/25/2005 9:44:59 AM

The RLX is now above its 7/21 high. So much for fitted retracement bracket work last week, but this would still work if the RLX turns around soon. Not counting on that, of course. You can't kill his one, it seems, although the rally seems so extended by Keltner standards.

Linda Piazza : 7/25/2005 9:43:38 AM

RUT still testing that 7/20 high, just hanging there.

Linda Piazza : 7/25/2005 9:43:18 AM

It doesn't pay to get too precise with the QCharts-drawn regression channels, especially as time progresses. This weekend, I accidentally erased the rising regression channel seen on the SOX's weekly chart. Last week, the SOX had spent the week testing the upper boundary of that chart, closing just a bit above it but within testing territory. The new chart, however, showed also that the SOX had spent the week testing that resistance, but from underneath, and only Friday sending a spike higher but closing beneath it. Either way, we can say that the SOX is testing the upper boundary of a channel that's held since September of last year, so the resistance should matter either way, whether it holds or whether it's breached and the breach is sustained.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/25/2005 9:41:23 AM

As a reader noted in an email to me on Friday, the bulls didn't get their higher high for the day. QQQQ bears need to see that repeat again today, which means that the 39.57 level needs to hold for any test. On a cycle basis, there's more leeway, with the daily cycle weakness suggesting a channel top as high as 39.70. Above that, we'll most likely be seeing the 4-week cycle begin trending in overbought territory.

Linda Piazza : 7/25/2005 9:38:34 AM

And the RLX just keeps climbing.

Linda Piazza : 7/25/2005 9:38:22 AM

RUT still turning down from its test of the 7/20 high, but not by much. Not by enough to comfort bears or suggest a double-top in the making, but that possibility still exists.

Linda Piazza : 7/25/2005 9:37:20 AM

SOX dropping back into that big gap from Friday morning, but hasn't yet dropped below Friday's low of 472.03. The SOX is at 473.03.

Linda Piazza : 7/25/2005 9:36:30 AM

The OEX tests the descending trendline off the 7/14 high, as well as 15-minute Keltner resistance, now at 575.33. The OEX is at 575.17 as I type, and it would need a 15-mintue close above that Keltner line to create a new upside target of 578.55 according to that chart. Remember that the OEX has been rattling from one side to the other of this channel for a week now, so there's vulnerability to a pullback, but watch the behavior of the RLX before you believe too strongly in that. Need a pullback there.

Linda Piazza : 7/25/2005 9:34:16 AM

The RLX still hasn't erased that breakout signal on the 30-minute Keltner chart, a breakout signal that extended a long, long time now. The RLX would need a 30-minute close beneath a Keltner line now at 480.83 to erase that breakout signal. Currently, it's challenging the 7/21 high of 484.98, with the RLX at 484.86.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/25/2005 9:32:26 AM

Volume breadth is positive at the open as equities flip green, ADV:DECV currently +1.66:1 on the NYSE and 2.37:1 on the Nasdaq.

Linda Piazza : 7/25/2005 9:32:01 AM

The RUT is testing the 7/20 high this morning. That high was 677.87 and the RUT is now at 677.29, down a few cents from the 677.61 open.

Linda Piazza : 7/25/2005 9:31:05 AM

OEX not doing much yet, but it looks as if it might attempt a challenge of the 575.26 Keltner resistance on the 15-minute chart. At 574.68 as I type.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/25/2005 9:29:06 AM

WMT is catching a premarket bid, last at 49.99, +.45. There was news overnight to the effect that WMT is seeking to double its presence in China by the end of next year, setting a goal of 90 stores in China and a continuation of its double-digit sales growth in that country.

Linda Piazza : 7/25/2005 9:28:09 AM

The FTSE 100 and CAC 40 have been coiling near the middle of their day's ranges for the last couple of hours, but the DAX appears to be having a bit more trouble, having earlier broken down out of the apparent bear flag in which it had risen off the low. It has not yet created a new LOD, however.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/25/2005 9:15:32 AM

QQQQ's 30 min cycle upphase from Friday afternoon continues to point higher, while the 60 min cycle downphase has turned up, so far weakly. The daily cycle appears to have topped last week, with the 10-day stochastic on a bearish kiss. Any weakness today would print the first bearish cross on the 10-day stochastic. Currently 30 and 60 min channel resistance line up at only 39.52-.56, but the intraday bias will remain to the upside so long as price holds above the 72 SMA at 39.42.

Linda Piazza : 7/25/2005 8:49:54 AM

Here's a sign of how range-bound the OEX has been lately. I prepared this post Friday evening, but when I went back to review it, I couldn't tell if it was the post for today or an old one from sometime last week. I think I could have been posting the same OEX update each morning without changing it much. The OEX spent the day again Friday inside the consolidation pattern that it's been trading in for about two weeks. The OEX certain does like to zoom up or down and then sit there for a few weeks lately, doesn't it? It's still within a broadening pattern on the daily chart, consolidating now beneath a long-term 577.40-578.60-ish that I've had marked on my charts for many months or perhaps even years, preparing to break one direction or the other. If it breaks to the upside out of the most recent pattern, it's got to shove higher through that resistance and up to the top of the broadening formation, now at about 581. One daily Keltner target, as long as the OEX maintains daily closes above 572.20, is 578.44-580.83, roughly analogous with that upside target. On breaks below the consolidation zone, the OEX might be expected to fall down toward the apex of the broadening formation, now at about 566, with a downside daily Keltner target of 564.17-566.98. So the Keltner target there is roughly analogous to what traditional chart analysis would tell us, too. One caution for the downside is long-term 567-568 S/R that must be punctured before 566 could be tested, of course.

So, now it's just a matter of waiting for a breakout. Except for a brief breakout Wednesday (late-day, with late-day and first-thing breakouts always a bit suspect), the OEX has traded within a 15-minute Keltner channel with (15-minute closing) boundaries at 570.82 and 575.24, so there are the breakout zones to watch.

The OEX's generals have failed to follow the high-flying indices' examples. I know those high-fliers often lead the generals, but these generals aren't budging just yet. Some numbers to watch are SOX 468, as a move below that will break the SOX out of a rising regression channel in place since the 14th, and RUT 660, as a move below that will break the RUT out of a rising regression channel that's persisted for much longer than that, since the move off the late-April low. Breaks of those channels might signal that the higher fliers are ready to take a rest. I don't even know what to say about the RLX, except this. With both the RLX and the SOX, it's possible to fit Fib brackets to their current just-reached highs, and have the various consolidation zones nicely match with important Fib levels, questioning whether the rises might be about concluded. That's an iffy way of making decisions, though, and we'll just watch, but keep that in mind.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/25/2005 8:38:35 AM

Ten year notes are holding a light loss, with TNX up 1.2 bps to 4.235%. Immediate resistance is at 4.25%, following by last week's high at 4.3%. 4.2% remains key support, below which an overdue daily cycle downphase would kick off.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/25/2005 7:40:58 AM

Equities are down, ES traing 1236.25, NQ 1609, YM 10658 and QQQQ is up .02 at 39.44. Gold is down .20 at 425, silver +.027 at 7.14, ten year notes -3/32 at a session low of 111 11/64 and crude oil is trading 58.25.

We await the 10 AM release of Existing Home Sales, est. 7.13M.

Linda Piazza : 7/25/2005 6:44:44 AM

Good morning. The Nikkei rose into last Friday morning's gap, but could not close it. Other Asian markets were mixed, as are European markets. European markets have fallen off earlier highs, but are also off lows reached about an hour and a half ago. Our futures are modestly negative. As of 6:36 EST, gold was down $0.20, crude, down $0.31 to $58.34. More detail about Asian and European markets follows in succeeding paragraphs.

After two days of losses late last week, the Nikkei coiled in positive territory Monday morning. By the beginning of the afternoon session, the Nikkei had moved up to test Friday's gap level, and it spent the rest of the day inside that gap, closing higher by 67.60 points or 0.58%, at 11,762.65. As happened with our SPX on Friday, energy-related issues helped prop up the Nikkei. Commodity-related issues also gained. Although spokespersons for the Japan Automobile Manufacturers Association held a press conference in which they discounted the effect of currency reform on their industry, Toyota Motor Corp.'s stock still dropped as did the stock of some other exporters outside the automobile industry. After a favorable newspaper report about its balance sheet, Japan's Takeda Pharmaceutical Company gained. Supermarket-chain owner Life Corp. gained in early trading on news that Mitsubishi Corp. will increase its stake in the company.

Other Asian markets were mixed. The Taiwan Weighted gained 0.62%, and Korea's Kospi climbed 1.44%. Singapore's Straits Times declined 0.42%. Hong Kong's Hang Seng rose 0.05%. China's central bank governor claimed Monday that the yuan revaluation might help to lighten the U.S.'s trade and fiscal deficits, but not by much. The Shanghai Composite fell 0.09%.

Most European markets traded firmly in positive territory earlier this morning, but have come off their highs. Technology and food producers have been responsible for some of the pullback off those highs. Today, Pepsico reportedly denied that it will bid for Groupe Danone, and that company's stock had plunged more than 8% at one point this morning, having gained more than 20% in recent weeks on rumors that Pepsico would bid for it. Other possible deal news was more positive for France Telecom, with the Wall Street Journal saying that company reportedly will buy Spanish wireless operator Amena. France Telecom gained in early trading.

Many companies announce earnings or have other news. Some notables include Vodafone Group PLC, gaining after its earnings report; Volvo, dropping after its earnings report although it noted strong sales growth in North and South America and raised its North American market estimate; and Swiss drugmaker Roche Holdings, gaining after a study concluded that its protease inhibitor Invirase, when begun with ritonavir, did not cause the development of resistance when treating HIV. A Lehman Brothers downgrade of French oil major Total SA did not appear to be hitting too hard, as the stock had gained 1% in early trading. Neither did the firm's downgrade of BG Group, with that stock also gaining 1% in early trading. Lehman Brothers raised its outlook on the integrated oils sector, urging clients to buy on pullbacks.

As of 6:39 EST, the FTSE 100 was higher by 17.80 points or 0.34%, to trade at 5,259.60. The CAC 40 was higher by 1.27 points or 0.03%, to trade at 4,416.79. The DAX was lower by 5.30 points or 0.11%, to trade at 4,831.60.

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