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Jeff Bailey : 7/27/2005 1:05:07 AM

ym05u up 5 points at 10,603.

Jeff Bailey : 7/27/2005 1:04:02 AM

e-mini NASDAQ (nq05u) down 0.50 at 1,606.50.

Jeff Bailey : 7/27/2005 1:03:29 AM

e-mini S&P (es05u) unchanged at 1,235.00.

Jeff Bailey : 7/27/2005 1:02:46 AM

Sept. Crude Oil (cl05u) is down 35 cents at $58.85.

Jeff Bailey : 7/27/2005 12:49:16 AM

Woof! ... Drake (the dog) and I would like to thank all of you that have sent "get well soon" notes and have given me links to various harnesses and strollers that would help a dog that has had a hip operation "get along."

The orthopedic department has given us a device to hold up Drake's back end to help him walk while his hip heels (6-weeks of immobility).

I'd post a picture of Drake, but he's got a shaved fanny with a scar that puts Dr. Frankenstein's work to shame.

I sure wouldn't want my friends posting a picture of me in this condition.

Drake is glad to be home and he is getting spoiled. He likes his food hand fed to him now, not out of the bowl.

Jeff Bailey : 7/27/2005 12:02:49 AM

Daily / Weekly Pivot Matrix found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/26/2005 11:44:39 PM

Program Trading Levels for Wednesday ... HL Camp & Company has their computers set for program buying at $+4.04 and set for program selling at $+1.54.

OI Technical Staff : 7/26/2005 10:00:00 PM

The Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

Disclaimer: Stocks discussed in the Market Monitor are for educational purposes only and any analysis is not meant to imply a recommendation for or against that stock. The analysts in this forum as on any other website are prohibited by the SEC from giving any specific advice to ANY individual trader. All information posted is for ALL readers and is not meant to be directed to any individual. Our analysts cannot answer any email questions regarding any specific stock. Please do not ask and please do not take offense if requests are denied.

Results posted in the Market Monitor are hypothetical and OIN does not claim that any reader achieved these exact results. Due to the lag time between research, writing, posting, uploading, reading and execution there will be differences between the actual signal given and the fill achieved by the reader. Fills may be better or worse but in most cases they will be different. The writers will make every effort to give advance notice of intended signals and indicate potential price targets. Your individual results may vary depending on your activity level and aggressiveness. This forum is intended as an education service only. Trading involves risk and should not be attempted by anyone not ready to accept this risk. By acting on any signal in this forum you agree and personally accept this risk.

Jeff Bailey : 7/26/2005 7:36:16 PM

WEEKLY/MONTHLY Pivot Matrix found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/26/2005 7:18:58 PM

Closing U.S. Market Watch at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/26/2005 7:13:37 PM

Closing Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/26/2005 6:49:39 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles at this Link ... Today's Activity ... Swing traded long 1/2 bullish position in shares of Cisco Systems (CSCO) at the offer of $19.01, stop $18.80, targeting $19.90.

Linda Piazza : 7/26/2005 4:00:59 PM

The RLX spent the whole day building a potential right shoulder on its 30-minute chart. It has neither invalidated nor confirmed that formation. It took even longer than a day, for the left shoulder to form, so this isn't indicative of anything in particular except that it hasn't yet extended too far in time for the formation to be valid yet.

Linda Piazza : 7/26/2005 3:59:21 PM

TRAN dropping into the close.

Linda Piazza : 7/26/2005 3:58:57 PM

Looks as if that SOX 15-minute Keltner resistance is going to likely hold into the close, but that there won't be any substantial pullback from that, with 476.44 support holding, too, so that the SOX might presumably go on hammering that resistance. Remember that we might have other semi-related earnings reports and announcements from overseas, too.

Linda Piazza : 7/26/2005 3:56:29 PM

Just for your interest, as I don't yet know exactly how we'd use such information, but here's the advdec line on a 5-minute Keltner chart: Link

Jonathan Levinson : 7/26/2005 3:54:27 PM

QQQQ bears need a break of 39.40, but so far, barring a meltup in the next 20 minutes or so, today has produced a lower low and lower high. The 30 min cycle remains trapped in its stall from earlier, while the 60 min cycle is now pointing higher. QQQQ has just broken back below the 72 SMA, suggesting that any intraday upside from here will remain weak. Link

Linda Piazza : 7/26/2005 3:51:44 PM

RLX and SOX dropping again. RLX trying to form an inverse H&S on the 1-minute chart, though. A new low beyond that 3:42 low of 481.26 would invalidate the formation. RLX at 481.36 as I type.

Linda Piazza : 7/26/2005 3:50:33 PM

That neckline test and refutation has sent the SOX sharply higher (at least on the one-mintue chart--smile). Testing 15-minute Keltner resistance again, with that now holding through seven prior 15-minute closes. That's just to prove me wrong when I said earlier that the 15-minute chart didn't have as close a correlation on the SOX as did that of some other time intervals.

Linda Piazza : 7/26/2005 3:47:56 PM

And, as I warned it might do, the SOX bounced from the neckline area of its potential H&S on the one-minute chart. It hasn't invalidated the formation yet, but this isn't what bears want to see. Fifteen-minute resistance at 477.53 on 15-minute closes.

Linda Piazza : 7/26/2005 3:43:03 PM

The TRAN hit the 50% retracement of the decline off the 2:51 candle and started down again, but it has not confirmed the downturn by a new low below the 3:09 one of 3738.83.

Linda Piazza : 7/26/2005 3:41:45 PM

SOX at those 1-minute 100/130-ema's as I type, testing them. H&S neckline may already have been breached, but I've been using a test of the one-minute 100/130-ema's as my benchmark, with those now at 476.53 and 476.27, respectively and with the SOX between them at 476.38. Careful for a potential zoom here as this is one place that such formations are invalidated.

Linda Piazza : 7/26/2005 3:38:16 PM

Sharp drop over the last few minutes in the RLX, but it is trying to bounce from 1-minute 100/130-ema's. It's still way above the 479 point at which it would confirm a H&S on its 30-minute chart. It's at 481.56 as I type.

Linda Piazza : 7/26/2005 3:36:56 PM

SOX rolling down into that right shoulder for the one-minute H&S, but it hasn't confirmed. Soon will test the 1-minute 100/130-ema's, at 476.53 and 476.25, respectively, with such a neckline test or brief neckline break sometimes another place where bulls sent prices sharply higher in an invalidation of the formation. SOX at 476.76 as I type.

Jeff Bailey : 7/26/2005 3:35:36 PM

Cisco Systems (CSCO) $19.13 +1.48% ... here's a DAILY interval bar chart I've been monitoring/trading at this Link ... doesn't want to close below that $18.81 level. PnF chart at this Link and $21 a big near-term level of resistance.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/26/2005 3:33:38 PM

So far, this one very wimpy short cycle downphase for QQQQ, and it doesn't help the bear case that the session low was made early, with price poised to close at or near the highs. On the other hand, yesterday's low was broken and the high still hasn't been touched- a lower low and lower high so far. Volume is still running around 2/3 of the average, even if yesterday's very light number has already been surpassed.

Linda Piazza : 7/26/2005 3:34:42 PM

The SOX needs to turn down soon or it invalidate the potential inverse H&S on its 1-minute chart.

Linda Piazza : 7/26/2005 3:31:21 PM

SOX 15-minute Keltner resistance has held now through tests for six 15-minute periods, with that resistance now at 477.39 on a 15-minute close. It's been pierced and is being pierced now, but it's held so far on closes. SOX at 477.45 as I type. A breakout on 15-minute closes sets a new target of 480.93.

Linda Piazza : 7/26/2005 3:28:04 PM

SOX has neither confirmed nor invalidated its potential H&S on its 1-minute chart. Watching the day's high for invalidation and the 1-minute 100/130-dma's, at 476.42 and 476.12 for possible confirmation. SOX at the right-shoulder level, at 477.06 as I type.

Linda Piazza : 7/26/2005 3:21:54 PM

The DJUSHB is today finding resistance at its 30-minute 100/130-ema's, at 1079.89 and 1076.04, respectively, with the DJUSHB at 1070.25 as I type.

Linda Piazza : 7/26/2005 3:20:43 PM

The TRAN has now retraced almost 38.2% of the big drop that began at 2:51. The 38.2% retracement will be at about 3743.55, hitting it just now. Fifty percent at about 3745.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/26/2005 3:20:13 PM

Volume breadth +1.63:1 on the NYSE, +2.01:1 on the Nasdaq. VXO 10.06, VXN 13.46, QQV 12.88

Linda Piazza : 7/26/2005 3:19:09 PM

Hmm. Expected to see the OEX at least at the Keltner resistance at 575.36 on the 15-minute chart, if not higher. Still coiling, now above the mid-channel level whereas this morning it was coiling just below it.

Linda Piazza : 7/26/2005 3:17:45 PM

SOX has a potential H&S on its 1-minute chart, shoulder level at about 477-477.50 and about to be tested again. Neckline a bit more difficult to determine, but I'd place it at the 1-minute 100/130-ema's, at 476.26 and 475.95, respectively. A climb too high will invalidate the formation, of course.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/26/2005 3:17:26 PM

Crude oil has reopened, trading -.10 at 59.10 in the evening session.

Linda Piazza : 7/26/2005 3:16:02 PM

The SOX didn't drop as low as bears might like during the just-completed 15-minute period, but perhaps low enough to do a credible job at an evening-star pattern on that chart. Bears don't want to see an immediate reversal of the reversal signal, however. They don't want to see a new HOD.

Linda Piazza : 7/26/2005 3:14:45 PM

Advdec line still looking vulnerable to a decline, perhaps to 771 or so now, as long as five-minute closes remain below 1169.90.

Linda Piazza : 7/26/2005 3:12:54 PM

My link now works on my 3:12 chart.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/26/2005 3:12:38 PM

Ten year notes finished right where they started, which is unsurprising given that they never budged in the intervening hours. TNX closed -.8 bps at 4.239%. Daily chart updated at this Link

Linda Piazza : 7/26/2005 3:12:32 PM

And here's a chart of the RLX, with that H&S scenario I proposed this morning when I saw how the RLX was "breaking down" out of the rising regression channel: Link Note that even if a H&S does appear to build, we need a move below 479 before we believe the neckline has been breached. The RLX is approaching a time when some H&S's have been invalidated, just as the right shoulder begins to form.

Jeff Bailey : 7/26/2005 3:10:16 PM

03:00 Internals found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 7/26/2005 3:07:35 PM

While I'm still able to post charts, I wanted to post the DJUSHB's 240-minute chart, showing that long climb in a steeply ascending regression channel. The RLX has spent most of today testing support. Hasn't convincingly breached it, nor convincingly risen from it. Link

Linda Piazza : 7/26/2005 3:05:49 PM

RLX at 481.91. Still nowhere near 484-485 yet. This one isn't playing its usual leadership role.

Linda Piazza : 7/26/2005 3:04:38 PM

Advdec line testing five-minute support, now down to 1038.46 on a five-minute closing basis, but with 1167.93 probably more important. Looks more vulnerable to a drop to 743 if this decline holds into the five-minute close. I'm posting these so we can document that it predicted moves before they happened, not that the lines arranged themselves to fit movements afterwards.

Jeff Bailey : 7/26/2005 3:02:53 PM

Sell Program Premium ... SPX 1,232.64, DIA $106.00, QQQQ $39.43

Linda Piazza : 7/26/2005 3:02:42 PM

SOX dropping on the 15-minute chart (well, on any chart), but creating a potential evening-star formation on that 15-minute chart if it keeps dropping and doesn't bounce. A 15-minute period close at or below 476 would confirm that evening-star pattern.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/26/2005 3:02:32 PM

The break above the bull flag resistance looks like a headfake/throwover, with the short cycle indicators now on a bearish divergent sell signal against that brief higher high: Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/26/2005 3:02:15 PM

03:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 7/26/2005 3:01:27 PM

According to its five-minute Keltner chart, the advdec line has potential support from 1119.74-1249.33. It's at 1271 now. If that support fails, it might drop quickly toward 747.

Linda Piazza : 7/26/2005 2:59:34 PM

I've had spotty success with posting charts today, but here's a SOX 15-minute Keltner chart, showing the SOX's so-far-unsuccessful efforts to push above and close 15-minute periods above the black channel's resistance: Link

Linda Piazza : 7/26/2005 2:57:23 PM

Still no new HOD for the OEX. It's consolidating above mid-channel support, but so far being turned back at a Keltner line currently at 574.35. That line rises, though, and as long as the OEX maintains support above the mid-channel level, currently down to about 573.31, there's the possibility of further challeges of nearest resistance and maybe even of 575.31 next Keltner resistance.

Linda Piazza : 7/26/2005 2:55:06 PM

Advdec line pulls back on schedule, now at nearest Keltner support, with 1224.24 below that, and about 1051 below that. At 1343 as I type, at nearest support.

Linda Piazza : 7/26/2005 2:52:42 PM

Earlier, the advdec line's five-minute Keltner chart had listed upper resistance at 1469.53, with that line now risen to 1506.77, and the advdec line now at 1497 as I type. Let's see if it turns down soon. Don't know what I'll do with this information if there does appear to be some correlation.

Linda Piazza : 7/26/2005 2:50:47 PM

RLX attempting a breakout above that consolidation pattern that I just mentioned, setting an upside target somewhere near 483-485, as long as it sustains this initial breakout attempt. That would bring the RLX up to the top of the likely right-shoulder level, if such a target should be hit. We wouldn't know until we saw how the RLX reacts there, and whether it either rises high enough to invalidate the H&S formation or rolls over and confirms it, what the outcome is going to be.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/26/2005 2:48:25 PM

If the current range proves to be a bull flag, then look for next resistance at upper 30 min channel resistance at QQQQ 39.56: Link

Linda Piazza : 7/26/2005 2:48:21 PM

SOX again trying, or still trying, to break above Keltner resistance on the 15-minute chart, with that resistance at 477.12 on 15-minute closing basis and the SOX currently at 477.27 as this 15-minute period begins.

Linda Piazza : 7/26/2005 2:46:03 PM

RLX still coiling, at the top of its day's range. If it breaks to the upside and this formation is about halfway through the move, as such consolidation patterns often are, then the RLX could easily move up to the 484-485 level that would be the top of a likely right-shoulder area for a H&S visible on its 30-minute chart. No breakout yet or rollover, either.

Linda Piazza : 7/26/2005 2:40:59 PM

Hmm. Advdec support held where the five-minute Keltner chart said it would. Next resistance at 1255.22 and then 1469.53, with those numbers changing rather rapidly on a five-minute chart.

Linda Piazza : 7/26/2005 2:39:42 PM

SOX 15-minute Keltner resistance has held on 15-minute closes, with that at 477.01 currently and the SOX at 476.55 currently. A 15-minute close above that still rising next resistance would set up a new targt on that chart, currently at 480.82.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/26/2005 2:38:39 PM

Sept. crude oil closed +.175 at 59.175, off a high of 59.875. 50 tick chart at this Link

Linda Piazza : 7/26/2005 2:37:36 PM

Interesting. I'm watching the advdec line with respect to 5- and 15-minute nested Keltner charts. Three times today, at 9:30, 10:15 and the just concluded 2:00 tests, those channels pinpointed the top of the advdec rise. Wonder if I've just picked the one moment in time when that will hold true or if it often does? Let's see, because the Keltner channels say there's potential advdec support from about 1023-ish zone to the current 1150-ish area, but that a five-minute close beneath the lower edge of that support would mean a likely quicker drop to 610. Let's see if any of that holds true.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/26/2005 2:34:48 PM

The short cycle indicators are starting to curl in overbought territory, but price has been unwilling to pull back meaningfully, still holding above 39.40 QQQQ. If that level doesn't break soon, the short cycle indicators will begin a bullish trending move. Link

Linda Piazza : 7/26/2005 2:34:18 PM

OEX back down to mid-channel support again on the 15-minute Keltner chart. If it breaks below about 572.44 currently, then it will be breaking back below the triangle that it briefly broke above to the upside. Still with me? It will turn the push we've just seen into a likely fake-out move. The OEX is so far holding mid-channel support near 573-573.40, however. With the OEX, it so far just amounts to more rattling around within that channel that's contained it a week. That channel is at 571.39 and 575.26.

Linda Piazza : 7/26/2005 2:30:07 PM

The SOX did not produce the third candle of an evening-star formation during the last 15-minute period, just concluded, but neither did it break out of the channel line currently at 476.96 on 15-minute closes, closing just beneath that for a third 15-minute period in a row. No reversal signal, though. The just concluded 30-minute period has produced a doji.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/26/2005 2:25:40 PM

Ten year notes continue to flatline, +1/16 at 111 23/64, TNX -.9 bps at 4.238%. This is the narrowest range we've seen in many, many sessions.

Linda Piazza : 7/26/2005 2:24:55 PM

RLX still hasn't climbed up to retest 484-485 yet. It's at 481.49 as I type. The RLX's 30-minute chart suggests that as long as it's producing 30-minute closes above Keltner support down to 480.72, it still has the possibility of doing so, however.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/26/2005 2:21:55 PM

QQQQ is less than 1M shares away from yesterday's total volume, with QQQQ up 21 cents here. The bearish interpretation of the daily cycle's action of the past week is valid so long as the price holds below last week's high- key resistance is in the 39.60-.70 area in that timeframe.

Linda Piazza : 7/26/2005 2:22:09 PM

SOX testing 477. Bears want to see a 15-minute close below the Keltner line currently at 476.95. Bulls want to see a close substantially above it. SOX at 477.00 as I type.

Jeff Bailey : 7/26/2005 3:16:13 PM

Cree, Inc. (CREE) $29.17 +5% Link ... session highs and back above its 200-day SMA ($28.65). Stock upgraded by Adams Harkness to "market perform" from "reduce" today. Adams Harkness downgraded CREE from "buy" to "reduce" on 06/09/04 at a price of $20.03.

Linda Piazza : 7/26/2005 2:18:19 PM

I said that the SOX's 15-minute Keltner channel didn't have as much relevance as some did those from some other time periods, but the SOX's advance stopped during the last 15-minute period at Keltner resistance on the 15-minute chart, now at 476.88. Bears now want to see a tall red candle that moves down from that resistance, ending this new 15-minute period near or below 475, and they don't want to see a push above that Keltner line that's sustained into a 15-minute close.

Jeff Bailey : 7/26/2005 2:13:41 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 7/26/2005 2:12:56 PM

No new HOD for the OEX. Not yet. Temporarily finding resistance at the 15-minute Keltner line currently at 574.14, with further resistance at 575.30. If, on the pullback, it produces 15-minute closes above 573.28, it's likely to go on challenging upside resistance. With 15-minute closes below that, a test of support becomes more likely.

Jeff Bailey : 7/26/2005 2:08:09 PM

02:00 Internals found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 7/26/2005 2:06:38 PM

RLX at 481.55, still within a potential right-shoulder level for a possible H&S on its 30-minute chart, with a move up as high as 484-485 still possibly fitting that scenario. As I thought it might do earlier today, the RLX has traded sideways out of its very steeply rising regression channel, in place since early July and not looking at all sustainable. It looked to me as if it would break out of that channel today, but in a sideways break, and a H&S formation looked possible. So far, the scenario fits, but now we have to wait to see if the H&S is invalidated or confirmed. OEX bears do not want to see the SOX move up through that channel and burst through to the upside now that there's been a minimal downside break, although how you could go any more vertical than this one has already gone in July, I don't know.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/26/2005 2:02:33 PM

QQQQ tests 30 and 60 min channel resistance, the 30 min channel only beginning to turn up now. The short cycle indicators have entered overbought territory but have yet to max out. The picture remains bullish above 39.40 on an intraday basis.

Linda Piazza : 7/26/2005 2:02:40 PM

The SOX's five-minute Keltner chart suggests that a challenge of the 477.40-ish region may bein the works. The 15-minute chart shows that the SOX currently challenges resistance, at 476.58 on the 15-minute chart, on 15-minute closes. Neither is an exact fit for the SOX's behavior, with the daily being more predictive for a long time. On the daily, next resistance is at 479.06 on daily closes, but with no assurance that the SOX will reach that high.

Jeff Bailey : 7/26/2005 2:01:52 PM

02:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 7/26/2005 1:57:50 PM

The OEX bounced up to 573.87 next Keltner resistance on the 15-minute chart, with next above that at 575.24. The OEX bounced high enough to pierce the descending trendline off yesterday's high, but drifted back to that trendline, where it now lingers, at 573.65 as I type.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/26/2005 1:56:55 PM

Volume spiked up on the resistance break, but the previous session high at QQQQ 39.46 was not broken and overall volume remains light. Bulls will want to see support hold at the daily pivot, 39.40. Upside 30/60 min channel resistance line up at 39.50.

Linda Piazza : 7/26/2005 1:56:19 PM

The RLX hasn't bounced very high yet, and certainly not above the appropriate right-shoulder level for the H&S it may be building on its 30-minute chart.

Linda Piazza : 7/26/2005 1:55:21 PM

The SOX has now successfully cleared that descending trendline off Friday's high as well as the top of Friday's gap. Watch 476.77-477.50-ish next resistance, with that coming from several sources--Keltner, intraday swing highs, etc. The SOX is at 475.99.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/26/2005 1:50:46 PM

Sept. crude oil +.80 at 59.80, 7.5 cents off the session high.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/26/2005 1:47:20 PM

Volume breadth +1.46:1 on the NYSE, +1.82:1 on the Nasdaq.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/26/2005 1:45:16 PM

QQQQ back to 39.40 and breaking descending resistance: Link

Linda Piazza : 7/26/2005 1:44:47 PM

Stop-running time of day. Watch to see if this push is quickly reversed or sees follow-through.

Linda Piazza : 7/26/2005 1:40:00 PM

The OEX's five-minute chart now has a continuation-form H&S, head at this morning's high, neckline at about 572.25 currently. However, remember that 571.30 support just below, on the 15-minute chart.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/26/2005 1:39:07 PM

Session low for GE here, -.03 at 34.74.

Jeff Bailey : 7/26/2005 1:38:04 PM

General Motors (GM) $36.67 +2.23% ... did get a "pop" from $36.00 to $37.36 on that GMAC / BAC news.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/26/2005 1:32:44 PM

There seems to be no end in sight for the chop, with the 60 min cycle downphase stalled and showing a slight uptick, while the 30 min upphase has also stalled and is showing a slight downtick. The daily cycle is cautiously bearish, turning lower from overbought, but there's still the possibility that the correction of the past few days is just another bull flag. So long as yesterday's highs are not violated, the bearish scenario looks more likely, as discussed in last night's Market Wrap. But in the meantime, the bears have to take out that 39.20 for longer than a few seconds- so far, price has been entirely unwilling to go down. 100 tick update at this Link

Linda Piazza : 7/26/2005 1:28:59 PM

Wilshire 5000 still testing 12,300, but essentially coiling today near the bottom of the drop off yesterday's high.

Linda Piazza : 7/26/2005 1:25:15 PM

So far, that descending trendline off the SOX's Friday high is holding as resistance. Too early to tell if it will continue to do so, especially as the possible bear flag off yesterday's low has not broken down, corroborating the impression that it is a bear flag.

Jeff Bailey : 7/26/2005 1:24:06 PM

Biotechnology Index (BTK.X) 617.39 +1.91% ... presses best levels of the session here.

QQQQ $39.36 +0.22% ... still pinned between WEEKLY Pivot/MONTHLY R2. That "option observation" $39.65 has been a tough one for buyers to overcome also.

Linda Piazza : 7/26/2005 1:21:46 PM

The RLX hasn't bounced far, still within the range for a possible right shoulder as seen on a 30-minute chart.

Linda Piazza : 7/26/2005 1:20:43 PM

OEX still coiling.

Jeff Bailey : 7/26/2005 1:17:35 PM

Networking Index (NWX.X) 227.62 +1.98% Link ... also at some importing intermediate-term (50-day SMA) and longer-term (200-day SMA) moving average support.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/26/2005 1:15:03 PM

Jeff, re: Drake, here's a vintage walker along the lines of what I was thinking. The wheels look too small to be useful on anything but a smooth floor, though: Link

Linda Piazza : 7/26/2005 1:13:57 PM

SOX testing that descending trendline off Friday's high again. As I said, this has been a sort of sideways/sideways-up challenge of this trendline, so I'm not sure how valid a move above it would be. I wouldn't trust a sideways/sideways-down break of an ascending trendline until there was a corroborating strong impulsive move, and that's what SOX bulls should want to see. The SOX still isn't far above the support of its shortest-term ascending regression channel, not far below the resistance on the one seen on the weekly chart.

Jeff Bailey : 7/26/2005 1:12:46 PM

01:00 Internals found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 7/26/2005 1:12:35 PM

Over the past 2 days, I see a possible bull wedge (implied target 39.62 QQQQ), a possible pennant within it (bearish as a continuation pattern), and a possible diamond, which I don't know how to interpret. In either case, the key levels are 39.37-.40 to the upside and 39.30, followed by 30.15-.17. Link

Jim Brown : 7/26/2005 1:07:41 PM

Mark, I am still leaning to the downside despite the S&P holding in the 1230 range. The major indexes are struggling to hold the highs and historically the weeks ahead are typically weak.

Linda Piazza : 7/26/2005 1:07:12 PM

Wilshire 5000 back to challenge 12,300.

Linda Piazza : 7/26/2005 1:06:37 PM

Wow, Jonathan. (See Jonathan's 1:05 post.) Everything I've read until now says this was just a first step.

Linda Piazza : 7/26/2005 1:05:44 PM

OEX still coiling, mostly beneath mid-channel S/R on its 15-minute chart.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/26/2005 1:05:35 PM

Solemn Statement by the Spokesman of the People's Bank of China

The reform of the RMB exchange rate regime has triggered widespread coverage and considerable support from the media both at home and abroad. However, certain foreign media has misled the public and even wrongly speculated that the revaluation of RMB by 2 percent was only the first step in a series of adjustment, which could "lead to expectations for further RMB revaluation by the People's Bank of China in the non-distant future".

More from the People's Bank of China website at this Link

Linda Piazza : 7/26/2005 1:05:04 PM

SOX about to challenge that descending trendline off Friday's high again. It was slapped back earlier, but the bears' inability to capitalize on early weakness may be making bulls bolder at these edge-of-the-precipice levels.

Jeff Bailey : 7/26/2005 1:04:38 PM

01:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 7/26/2005 1:03:06 PM

Volume breadth is currently +1.21:1 on the NYSE and +1.54:1 on the Nasdaq. I have yet to see it flip negative today, despite the sharp morning drop. QQQQ volume is running very light but heavier than yesterday, 42.4M shares traded so far today, and 9.6M away from yesterday's total.

Jeff Bailey : 7/26/2005 1:02:20 PM

Ugh! ... Just seeing Jim's 12:41:46 post. I guess that provides a near-term test for the CSCO trade? I'm more comfortable buying "longer-term support" than selling it.

CSCO weekly Pivot Levels ... 18.61, 18.96, Piv= 19.59, 19.94, 20.58.

Linda Piazza : 7/26/2005 12:56:41 PM

The SOX is not far away from another challenge of the descending trendline off Friday's high, although it's drifting sideways toward that descending trendline rather than bursting above it. The trendline is now near 474 with the SOX at 473.08. Just as a sideways "breakdown" should be greeted with some skepticism, so should a sideways breakout be greeted, but with the recent tenor, a sideways breakout may have more success. No such breakout yet, though, and the SOX's climb off yesterday's low still looks a bit bear flag-ish.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/26/2005 12:56:17 PM

Back to find QQQQ still trading both sides of the 72 SMA at 39.30. The short cycle is in a tentative downphase, but the sideways action caused by the juxtaposed 30 and 60 min cycles has chopped it up for the most part. 100-tick QQQQ with trendlines at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/26/2005 12:50:13 PM

Bullish swing trade long alert for 1/2 bullish position in shares of Cisco Systems (CSCO) $19.01 +0.84% here, stop $18.80, target $19.90.

Jim Brown : 7/26/2005 12:41:46 PM

For more than a week now the ES has been respecting the 100/130 ema on the 30 min chart. Using these averages for support the ES has managed to trend slightly higher but all the spikes have been quickly sold. I have written about these averages many times and they continue to outperform any other set of indicators on a long term basis. A break below these averages, specifically the 130 today at 1232 sets up what could be a major drop. Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/26/2005 12:44:17 PM

Lexmark (LXK) $60.12 -12.31% Link ... notable new 52-week low at the big board after the computer printer maker posted a Q2 net income decline and said it was facing a tougher demand and pricing environment. Stock has far exceeded its PnF chart's bearish vertical count of $75. First sign of strength would be trade at $71.00.

Jeff Bailey : 7/26/2005 12:38:14 PM

Banc of America (BAC) $44.43 -0.51% ... saying it will buy up to $55 billion of GMAC's U.S. retail automotive assets over next 5 years. Will make initial $5 billion purchase.

Linda Piazza : 7/26/2005 12:36:09 PM

RUT testing 670, at 670.32 as I type, but it's still inside its recent consolidation zone and near the midline of its steeply ascending regression channel off its late-April low.

Linda Piazza : 7/26/2005 12:34:00 PM

RLX at 479.70, but I think it needs to get below 479.12 before we can consider support violated. Since the RLX's right shoulder is so stunted, though, there's the possibility that this isn't the real right shoulder, but that the RLX will now bounce and move up into a right shoulder.

Jeff Bailey : 7/26/2005 12:31:04 PM

TRIN ... 0.95 -20.83% ... kissed its WEEKLY Pivot of 1.08 just prior to 12:00 PM EDT, but then eased back off below 1.00 and DAILY Pivot. Still bullish intra-day at this point.

Linda Piazza : 7/26/2005 12:29:55 PM

The Wilshire 5000 is at a day's low, but not yet below yesterday's low of 12,274.66. The DWC is 12,282.58.

Jeff Bailey : 7/26/2005 12:29:33 PM

Sell Program Premium ... SPX 1,229.33, DIA $105.67, QQQQ $39.26.

Linda Piazza : 7/26/2005 12:29:00 PM

OEX still curling down oh-so-slowly. First Keltner support at 572.07 and then at 571.26. A little steeper drop started as I typed.

Jeff Bailey : 7/26/2005 12:12:28 PM

12:00 Internals found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 7/26/2005 12:10:40 PM

RLX still inside the range that might be appropriate for a right shoulder for a H&S on its 30-minute chart, head at yesterday's high, right-shoulder level at 484-485. The RLX is at 480.73 as I type, and would probably require a drop below 479 to confirm the formation.

Linda Piazza : 7/26/2005 12:07:03 PM

The SOX just rose again to retest the descending trendline off Friday's high. That trendline is now at about 474.50, although that's approximate. The SOX is at 473.17, having turned down from that test, at least temporarily.

Jeff Bailey : 7/26/2005 12:03:32 PM

12:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 7/26/2005 12:01:44 PM

Stepping out for about 45 mins.

Jeff Bailey : 7/26/2005 12:00:39 PM

Dow Transports (TRAN) 3,750 +0.48% ... best levels of the session here.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/26/2005 11:59:38 AM

QQQQ breaks 72 SMA resistance on a sharp upside spike: Link

Linda Piazza : 7/26/2005 11:58:14 AM

OEX still curving over beneath Keltner mid-channel resistance, but not really dropping. This is troublesome to bears.

Linda Piazza : 7/26/2005 11:55:02 AM

Jeff, we're all glad that Drake is doing well. My golden is snugged up behind my office chair right now, his favorite place to be while I'm working even though I'm certain that any small movements I make must tweezer little hairs and be painful. My lab is a little more independent, and lies across the doorway. After losing a dog a couple of years ago, I know how tough it can be when they're hurt or ill.

Jeff Bailey : 7/26/2005 11:53:57 AM

Motorola (MOT) $20.42 -0.53% Link ... reversing earlier gains to $20.97.

Jeff Bailey : 7/26/2005 11:52:10 AM

I've got some "funny stories" Jane from yesterday. I went over to a doggy-rehab center to look at what all Drake is going to have to go through. Do you know they have treadmills in "fish tanks" so dogs can walk, but utilize the water to take some weight off their legs/hips? Anyway .... we walked through one room that had three chairs and a bright red couch. I asked the lady if the red couch was for the dog/cat to rest when being worked on by the psychiatrist? I thought it was funny anyway.

What Drake did to injure himself is a long story, but I'd sure like to know what was going through his mind when he did what he did.

Linda Piazza : 7/26/2005 11:48:02 AM

The Wilshire 5000 has inched just below 12,300 after breaking as high as 12,331.67 today. It's just coiling today, though, after yesterday's steep afternoon drop, and it hasn't broken out of that coil yet.

Linda Piazza : 7/26/2005 11:40:32 AM

The OEX is slowly rolling over over today, but so slowly that the bearish strength has to be questioned.

Jeff Bailey : 7/26/2005 11:43:19 AM

Broker/Dealer Index (XBD.X) 168.96 -1.16% Link ... Legg Mason (LM) $104.77 -6.47% Link notably weak after the money manager said it earned $112.8 million, or $0.93 per share, $0.07 below Wall Street's view. The company said results were hurt by the pending sale of its brokerage business to Citigroup as well as challenging market conditions. Legg Mason officials said they anticipate their business will continue to be hit by the distractions of the pending sale.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/26/2005 11:35:14 AM

Zooming out the 30 min cycle has passed the midpoint in its upphase, so far with zero price traction, while the 60 min cycle downphase is approaching oversold territory. This continues to qualify as sideways chop within what I interpret as a daily cycle rollover from overbought territory. So far, the bears have a lower low and lower high for the day on stronger volume than we saw yesterday at this time.

Jane Fox : 7/26/2005 11:33:49 AM

Jeff I do a lot of work with our local Humane Society and we believe people like you have a place in heaven waiting for them. Thank you taking such good care of one of these special creatures.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/26/2005 11:35:32 AM

Jeff, it sounds like he could use the little walker that my folks used to place me in when I was a peanut- basically a cloth harness surrounded by wheels- like training wheels for walking.

Jeff Bailey : 7/26/2005 11:30:55 AM

Thank you Jonathan! It will be interesting. They've got a "suitcase sling" rigged up as his front left leg is in a cast, and his right rear hip/leg is in a sling so he can't put weight on it. I've seen three-legged dogs get around just fine, but a two-legged dog? The neighbors are going to think "what's that guy doing with the doggy suitcase" when we go outside and do our "business."

Linda Piazza : 7/26/2005 11:29:55 AM

Just a what-if, but if the SOX should continue declining today, it has next daily Keltner support at 466.97, so watch for potential support at that level.

Linda Piazza : 7/26/2005 11:28:18 AM

Next Keltner support for the OEX at 572.12 and then at the important 571.28 level. This time, the OEX did not make it up to the top of the Keltner channel that's been containing it before appearing to roll down again, a bearish event if the rollover continues, but there's been only a tentative break of the rising trendline off yesterday's late-day low and it already heads back up to retest that trendline.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/26/2005 11:25:39 AM

Glad it went well, Jeff, and best wishes for an full and easy recovery.

Jeff Bailey : 7/26/2005 11:24:36 AM

Linda (per 09:34:35) ... as of last night, doctor said he came out of surgery pretty good, but was pretty well sedated. I'm waiting for the surgeon to call back and hopefully be able to pick Drake up later today.

Linda Piazza : 7/26/2005 11:20:01 AM

I had to change the computer on which I was working and when I called up QCharts on this one, I was reminded that we should be watching the important 15-minute 100/130-ema's on the SOX, with those at 471.78 and 470.63, respectively, and with the SOX currently at 472.63. The SOX has been bouncing from these averages (on 15-minute closes, though, not intra-period) since 7/05. I thought it was since 7/07, but it first moved above them on 7/05.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/26/2005 11:18:02 AM

August gold is bouncing from a session low of 422.80, possibly printing a small right shoulder of a reverse head and shoulders formation below 428-429. Price is currently -1.60 at 424.20. Daily chart at this Link

Linda Piazza : 7/26/2005 11:15:04 AM

RLX still between 480 and 484-485, a potential right-shoulder level for a potential H&S on the 30-minute chart. I think it needs a drop below 479 to confirm the H&S.

Linda Piazza : 7/26/2005 11:12:41 AM

Even less clarity than usual on the OEX's 15-minute Keltner chart as the OEX hugs the midline level.

Jeff Bailey : 7/26/2005 11:11:57 AM

11:00 Internals found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 7/26/2005 11:09:14 AM

Another bounce from the 39.20 area, but price is hesitating below the 72 SMA at 39.34. Today's action is tracing a rough expanding wedge so far, still sideways but far more exciting than yesterday's afternoon drift. Link

Linda Piazza : 7/26/2005 11:03:32 AM

The DJUSHB isn't breaking down out of that channel again after this morning's minimal break and pop back inside. Link Remember the possibility for a H&S on this chart, a possibility I posed yesterday. The DJUSHB didn't drop quite as low as I thought it would for that scenario, though, before the bounce.

Jeff Bailey : 7/26/2005 11:03:11 AM

11:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/26/2005 10:58:08 AM

Dow Transports (TRAN) 3,731 ... what do you think? Updated with a bullishly fit 38.2% (PINK) retracement at this Link ... looks to be "in play."

Jonathan Levinson : 7/26/2005 10:57:40 AM

QQQQ chart updated at this Link , zoomed out to show the nominal new low printed this AM at 39.19.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/26/2005 10:54:18 AM

Ten tear notes haven budged, still holding a light gain in a narrow range, TNX -.8 bps at 4.239%. The USD Index has retreated from a high at 99.25, back to 90. Link

Linda Piazza : 7/26/2005 10:52:34 AM

The OEX's climb off yesterday's late-day test of the Keltner channel support that has been holding the OEX up for more than a week looks corrective. It's broadening now, but the OEX doesn't appear yet to have broken the supporting trendline off the late-day low, the flag's support. That appears to be at about 572.65, if I've placed my cursor the right place. If the OEX closes the current 15-minute period below 573.16, it looks vulnerable to another test of support from 571.26-572.02, however.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/26/2005 10:49:45 AM

Session high for Sept. crude oil, +.275 at 59.275.

Linda Piazza : 7/26/2005 10:49:13 AM

RLX drifting lower again after rising as high as 483.13 this morning, into a right-shoulder level for a possible H&S on its 30-minute chart. It's again breaking minimally out of its sharply rising regression channel, but hasn't confirmed by a fall beneath 479, which I think it needs for confirmation. Without that confirmation, I wouldn't be surprised to see a further rattling around within a 480 to 484-485-ish right shoulder level for that potential H&S, with the possibility remaining that the RLX could still invalidate the formation. As yet, the right-shoulder development is stunted when compared to the left-shoulder size.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/26/2005 10:48:54 AM

Volume breadth still positive as QQQQ tests 39.20 support, +1.32:1 on the NYSE and +1.16:1 on the Nasdaq.

Linda Piazza : 7/26/2005 10:46:13 AM

SOX turning back toward the support of the shortest-term of its rising regression channels, turning away from top resistance on the one seen on its weekly chart, but the move is tentative as yet and the SOX is not below Friday's big gap or even yesterday's low.

Jeff Bailey : 7/26/2005 10:42:57 AM

Current OPEN MM Profiles found at this Link ... Time should read 10:42 AM EDT (not 10:00 AM EDT)

Jeff Bailey : 7/26/2005 10:39:35 AM

Space Shuttle Discovery ... lifting off.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/26/2005 10:38:04 AM

QQQQ is back below the daily pivot but still above the 72 SMA, which has risen to 39.33. The short cycle indicators printed a slight bearish divergence on the quick spike up off the lows and the subsequent failure at 39.46. 30 and 60 min channel support line up at 39.20 and 39.15 respectively, with daily S1 at 39.16. Link

Linda Piazza : 7/26/2005 10:36:42 AM

BIX turned back ahead of mid-channel support on its 15-minute Keltner channels. It's looking weaker than the OEX by this comparison, and these channels sometimes do show relevance to the BIX's behavior.

Linda Piazza : 7/26/2005 10:35:36 AM

The OEX's 15-minute candles aren't looking paritcularly strong. That's not always a good determinant of anything, but the OEX is drifting back down to retest Keltner mid-channel support without yet being able to follow through toward the top of the channel.

Jeff Bailey : 7/26/2005 10:32:36 AM

Union Pacific (UNP) 68.10 -0.05% ... updated bar chart at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/26/2005 10:27:14 AM

Dow Transports (TRAN) 3,738 +0.14% ... updated bar chart at this Link with observation of "doji" just under our conventional 80.9% retracement. Will add a PINK bullishly fit 38.2% retracement in a moment to see if we get another level of resistance there. If so, may look to exit 1/2 position of UNP calls.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/26/2005 10:27:04 AM

Sept. crude up to a .075 loss at 58.925, off an overnight high of 59.20. The low was at 58.525. 50 tick chart at this Link

Linda Piazza : 7/26/2005 10:24:57 AM

OEX testing 574.49 next resistance on its 15-minute Keltner chart. The top of this channel that's been containing the OEX offer next resistance, at 575.70 on a 15-minute closing basis.

Linda Piazza : 7/26/2005 10:23:36 AM

RLX rising into that potential right-shoulder area that I mentioned in my 10:08 post, fitting with the testing of 30-minute Keltner resistance, too. I had also mentioned in a later post that the resistance might not yet be strong enough to prevent a rising to retest it. And it wasn't. OEX bears want to see the RLX form a right shoulder beneath 484-485 and then roll down, but such an action might take many 30-minute periods to effect. The RLX is at 482.85 as I type. OEX bulls want to see the RLX rise above yesterday's high and invalidate the formation.

Linda Piazza : 7/26/2005 10:21:12 AM

SOX again perhaps rising to test the descending trendline off Friday's high. Remember that I said yesterday that one troublesome aspect of the SOX's decline was that it looked a little like a falling wedge on the 15-minute chart. Such falling wedges are typically bullish, and it was falling into possible gap support, but these wedges just haven't worked well lately. Watch the previous HOD and 477-477.60 for possible resistance.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/26/2005 10:19:28 AM

QQQQ breaks the daily pivot at 39.40. 60 min channel resistance is at 39.46, followed by the 30 min channel up at 39.54.

Linda Piazza : 7/26/2005 10:18:02 AM

The RLX's 30-minute Keltner chart has been important, as the RLX maintained a 30-minute breakout for an inordinately long period of time. It's testing first 30-minute resistance at 481.87, with the RLX at 481.76 as I type, but it has support from 479.92-480.68. Next resistance above the current resistance is from 483.30-484.89. That resistance is trying to firm, but still turns higher, and might allow a bounce at least up to test it, if the RLX gets a strong enough push. The outlook is uncertain here as yet, but the RLX is below the breakout level again and is currently testing resistance that will give some idea as to whether it's more likely to climb and retest higher resistance or decline to test support. Remember that we're talking about 30-minute closing values here.

Jeff Bailey : 7/26/2005 10:14:11 AM

10:00 Internals found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 7/26/2005 10:13:56 AM

QQQQ is back to the daily pivot on a sharp spike, challenging the daily cycle sell signals that printed from overbought territory when price broke through the 7200 tick SMA support at 39.29. The short cycle bias still favors a rollover from here, but the signals would likely whipsaw within minutes of a break above 39.40. Link

Linda Piazza : 7/26/2005 10:13:43 AM

DJUSHB still within the channel that it momentarily broke below this morning, pre-consumer-confidence, still positive for the day.

Linda Piazza : 7/26/2005 10:12:09 AM

OEX again testing mid-channel resistance on the 15-minute Keltner chart, next resistance at 575.09 and then at 575.60.

Linda Piazza : 7/26/2005 10:11:27 AM

Wilshire 5000 still staying just above 12,300, at 12,311.34 as I type. One chart suggests tha 12,320 or so might be next resistance.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/26/2005 10:08:38 AM

Sept. crude oil reopens, -.30 at 58.70.

Linda Piazza : 7/26/2005 10:08:11 AM

RLX at the edge of the cliff as regards its long-term rising regression channel in place since late June/early July. This has just not looked like a supportable climb, but it's been supported so far. Watch for a drop below 479 as first corroboration that it's dropping out of that channel, but there's a very real possibility that the RLX might instead just trade sideways between about 480 and 484-485, forming a right shoulder for a possible H&S formation on the 30-minute chart.

Linda Piazza : 7/26/2005 10:04:54 AM

OEX pulling back more now. Next support at 571.36-571.84. A 15-minute close beneath the lower of those two lines sets up a downside targt of 568.08. Watch out for bulls buying dips, though, if you're in a bearish play, and know how you'll treat the 571.36-ish and 567-568 levels now, before they're hit.

Jeff Bailey : 7/26/2005 10:04:37 AM

10:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 7/26/2005 10:04:12 AM

Volume breadth still positive, +1.4:1 on the NYSE and +1.61:1 on the NYSE. QQQQ volume is running heavier than yesterday, 13,4M shares traded so far.

Linda Piazza : 7/26/2005 10:03:34 AM

Daily Keltner support for the OEX at 572.53, with the OEX closing minimally below that yesterday.

Linda Piazza : 7/26/2005 10:02:22 AM

Not much movement yet in the OEX, although perhaps a slight downturn from that mid-channel resistance. The SOX turns down toward its rising regression channel's (the shorter in duration fo the two) support. The DJUSHB still inside that channel that it broke minimally below this morning, still bouncing.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/26/2005 10:02:00 AM

QQQQ tried again and failed at 39.40 as the Con-con number was being released. Ten year notes are advancing back to their earlier levels, with TNX down 1.1 bps at 4.237%.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/26/2005 10:00:33 AM

Consumer confidence 103.2 vs. 106.2 est.

Linda Piazza : 7/26/2005 9:59:27 AM

Ahead of the release, OEX positioned near mid-channel S/R on the Keltner channel that has captured its movements, mostly, for more than a week.

Linda Piazza : 7/26/2005 9:58:44 AM

SOX filled the small gap from this morning, touched the top of its rising regression channel in place since the 14th, and bounced again, although the bounce is mild so far. Remember that the SOX is also up against top resistance on a much longer-term rising regression channel on its weekly chart, with that resistance near--no surpris--477 on a weekly closing basis.

Linda Piazza : 7/26/2005 9:55:56 AM

The Wilshire 5000 also rises this morning from the bottom of a rising regression channel formed since about the 11th, but one that seems positioned strangely to me, as it's so wide with respect to the action that preceded it. The DWC is currently testing 12,300, at 12,302.50 as I type. It's trying to maintain its 10-dma support, with that support at 12,274.41, prompting bounces since the 7th.

Jeff Bailey : 7/26/2005 10:01:58 AM

Placer Dome (PDG) $14.41 -2.63% Link ... breaking below its rising 50-day SMA ($14.53) in early trade, with "doji top" at $16.00. This was a bearish target of mine from a couple of weeks ago. With MACD threatening zero, would hold if short/put, trail stop just above $15.50 and rounding lower 21-day SMA ($15.34).

Linda Piazza : 7/26/2005 9:53:51 AM

DJUSHB bouncing back inside that rising regression channel, now at 1066.81. Bears would rather not have seen such a quick bounce back inside the channel. Bulls want to see more carry-through.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/26/2005 9:53:30 AM

The Fed has just replaced its 5.5B overnight repo with a big 10.25B overnight repo, for a 4.75B net add for the day. Awaiting the Consumer Confidence data in 7 minutes.

Linda Piazza : 7/26/2005 9:51:04 AM

RUT slightly positive this morning, by less than two points, still within the recent consolidation zone from the last four trading sessions and still within its rising regression channel off the late April low. It's near the midline.

Linda Piazza : 7/26/2005 9:47:52 AM

OEX still aiming for mid-channel resistance on the channel that has contained it so long, with that resistance at 473.33-473.81 on 15-minute closes.

Jeff Bailey : 7/26/2005 9:49:12 AM

Englobal Corp. (ENG) $6.35 -0.93% ... updated bar chart with retracement work at this Link ... note, since trader first asked (06/21/05), bullish vertical count grew from $8.00 to $8.25 so I've carried 100% of BLUE retracement higher from $8.00.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/26/2005 9:43:18 AM

QQQQ tagged a high of 39.43 and failed, again unable to regain 39.40, the daily pivot. 7200 tick SMA support is at 39.28, which the bears need to regain in order to prevent the 30 min channel from turning up. 30 and 60 min resistance are at the session high currently. QQQQ chart at this Link

Linda Piazza : 7/26/2005 9:43:57 AM

The DJUSHB just dropped below 1060, perhaps now tentatively violating that long-term ascending regression channel. I'm not suggesting that you pile on with shorts here, as I haven't watched this index much, but am only watching it as a barometer of overall bullish strength since it's been such a mo-mo index. A possibility here is a H&S at the top of the climb, so watch for possible support near 1050 and a bounce into a right shoulder before we know whether the formation would be rejected or confirmed. A straight-down drop through 1050 would tend to erase the potential for such a formation to begin. The DJUSHB is at 1057.35 as I type.

Linda Piazza : 7/26/2005 9:41:00 AM

Mid-channel resistance held on the OEX, with bears glad to see that happen, but with the battle perhaps not yet over. Investors may be positioning indices ahead of the 10:00 number.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/26/2005 9:40:12 AM

Volume breadth is positive at the open, +1.74:1 on the NYSE and +1.28:1 on the Nasdaq.

Linda Piazza : 7/26/2005 9:40:11 AM

SOX slapped back almost all the way to its opening value, but it hasn't closed this morning's tiny gap nor quite the big one from Friday.

Linda Piazza : 7/26/2005 9:39:29 AM

The RLX is trying to bounce from rising regression channel support, but yesterday the RLX dropped below an actual rising trendline off the 7/07 lows. This bounce, if it holds, will be taking the RLX up to retest that broken trendline, at about 483.20, currently. As I type, the RLX is at 481.26.

Jeff Bailey : 7/26/2005 9:38:29 AM

Englobal Corp. (AMEX:ENG) $6.43 +0.31% Link ... per trader's question several weeks ago. Stock edges into $6.49-$6.89 "zone of resistance" here. Still some room to its PnF chart's bullish vertical count of $8.25.

Linda Piazza : 7/26/2005 9:36:27 AM

DJUSHB descends further this morning, now at the rising regression channel's support, with that channel in place since early in May. Important point for the DJUSHB.

Linda Piazza : 7/26/2005 9:35:03 AM

SOX pulling back immediately from that test of the descending trendline off Friday's high.

Linda Piazza : 7/26/2005 9:34:35 AM

How is Drake, Jeff?

Linda Piazza : 7/26/2005 9:33:22 AM

SOX testing a descending trendline off Friday's early morning high. It pierced it and has now drawn back to that trendline, at about 475.35.

Linda Piazza : 7/26/2005 9:31:53 AM

OEX rising from the bottom support of that channel that's contained it (except for two brief fake-out moves) for more than a week. It's risen right into mid-channel resistance near 573-573.90.

Jeff Bailey : 7/26/2005 9:33:21 AM

DePont (DD) $44.04 Link ... the Dow component and one of the U.S.s biggest chemical maker trades lower at $42.57 after the company reported earnings of $1.01 billion, or $1.01 per share compared to year-ago $503 million, or $0.50 per share.

Recent quarterly results include a net benefit of $111 million from asset sales, a favorable tax audit, and restructuring cost ($0.11 per share).

Net sales totaled $7.51 billion, down fractionally from $7.53 billion a year ago.

Consensus was for the chemical maker to earn $0.96 per share on revenue of $7.67 billion.

Linda Piazza : 7/26/2005 9:31:03 AM

SOX opens higher, bouncing from the edge of the precipice (better known as rising regression channel support).

Jeff Bailey : 7/26/2005 9:25:28 AM

MDI, Inc. (MDII) $0.87 Link ... jumping to $1.56 and atop this morning's most active list after the electronic security products maker said that its subsidiary, MDI Security Systems, has entered into a product and sale promotion agreement with PSA Security Network. PSA will offer MDI products to its membership base of 285 electronic security dealers and integrators.

Linda Piazza : 7/26/2005 8:54:38 AM

It is with great sorrow that I report that the OEX spent yet another day within that Keltner channel that has contained it for more than a week now. Take a look at an OEX 60-minute, 2-hour or daily chart, and you see the prolonged consolidation. The OEX actually attempted an upside breakout, but the attempt was a tepid one, on a single 15-minute candle that left a long upper shadow and closed only cents above the channel that's contained the OEX so long. By the end of the day, the OEX had once again made its way all the way to the bottom of the channel but once again did not break out of it. Nothing much happened. Or did it?

Unfortunately, I was going to show a number of charts--of the DJUSHB, the RLX, the SOX, and TRAN--showing that all perched on bottom support of rising regression channels (and the SOX simultaneously also struggling with top resistance on a long-term rising regression channel), ready to tip over or climb back through those channels again, but the chart links aren't working this morning. You'll have to trust me. The RUT remains a bit stronger, nearer the midline of its rising regression channel on the 2-hour chart.

With all these charts showing indices on the precipice, the OEX's position at the bottom of that channel in which it's rattled around for so long gains extra weight. Over on the Futures side, Mark says those edge-of-the-cliff plays seldom work, and he's right, but if one of these group teeters and falls over, it may pull the rest with it. You know the breakdown level on the OEX, at the bottom of that channel in which it's rattled around, on a 15-minute close below that level, and you know to be ready to switch sides if the OEX does the same fake-out move at the bottom of that channel as it did at the top yesterday. The possibility of a fake-out move is perhaps enhanced by the 10:00 release of Consumer Confidence, giving indices just enough time to appear to do something or other and trap bulls or bears and then turn around again at or after that release. There's potential support at 567-568, so guard bearish profits at those levels.

If you're betting on a move up through the OEX's channel again, watch some of those other indices. Don't want to see them teeter and fall over the edge, one by one, while you're making a bullish bet on the OEX. Remember Consumer Confidence at 10:00 when considering plays, with conservative traders perhaps just watching the action until then, being willing to miss a good play if the right setup doesn't come along after the release.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/26/2005 8:35:29 AM

Ten year note yields have opened in the red, TNX down .9 bps at 4.238%. Updated daily chart at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 7/26/2005 8:16:45 AM

Session lows for GOOG, QQQQ, silver, swiss francs and euros as the USD Index prints back above 90.00: Link . Ten year notes are holding a slight gain, and crude oil is up to a .275 loss at 58.725.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/26/2005 8:01:23 AM

Canadian Pacific Railway (CP) reported Q2 earnings that rose from CDN $84 million or 53 cents in Q2 2004 to CDN $123 million or 77 cents in the current quarter on a surge in sales, led by a 48% increase in revenue from coal shipments. Revenue was up from CDN $1 billion to $1.11 billion.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/26/2005 7:56:13 AM

NEW YORK (Reuters) - DuPont Co.'s (NYSE:DD - News) quarterly profit surged, helped by a gain from an asset sale, the No. 2 U.S. chemical maker said on Tuesday. Net income increased to $1.02 billion, or $1.01 a share, from $503 million, or 50 cents per share, a year earlier.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/26/2005 7:41:58 AM

Equities are up, ES trading 1235.5, NQ 1606.5, YM 10637 and QQQQ +.11 at 39.38. Gold is down 2.1 to 423.7, silver -.065 to 7.075, ten year notes +1/32 to 111 5/16 and crude oil is down .35 to 58.65.

We await the 10AM release of Consumer Confidence, est. 106.2.

Linda Piazza : 7/26/2005 7:16:45 AM

Good morning. The Nikkei fell ahead of key earnings reports, and other Asian markets were mixed. Most European markets trade in the green, some improving over their nearly flat-line levels as this report was prepared. Our futures are positive and above fair value. As of 6:54 EST, gold was down $1.30, and crude, down $0.45 to $58.55. More detail about Asian and European markets follows in succeeding paragraphs.

Early in Tuesday's session, the Nikkei tried unsuccessfully to hold onto positive values, with chip-equipment makers doing their best to help. Goldman Sachs said that the chip-equipment industry was attractive because of a presumed rebound in the second half of the year and upgraded Advantest. However, techs Advantest, Kyocera Corp. and TDK would later report earnings and there was some worry about the quality of earnings. Nissan Motor was also due to report earnings. The Nikkei was to close off its low of the day, but still lower by 24.69 points or 0.21%, at 11,737.96, back below Friday morning's gap.

Rising crude costs pressured the bourse. Nissan was to report group net profit dropping 14% in the quarter ending in June due to several charges but strong profit growth on an operating basis. The company reiterated its FY forecast for a record net profit. The report was to see negative follow-through in European trading this morning, with partly owned Renault dropping. Stock-specific news included speculation that Jasdaq Securities Exchange for start-ups will invest $17.8 million to improve security of the system and increase its trading capacity by three times.

Other Asian markets are mixed. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing said its quarterly net profit widened over the year-ago level, but it beat forecasts of an even lower net profit. The Taiwan Weighted lost 0.85%, but South Korea's Kospi gained 0.08%. Singapore's Straits Times rose 0.53%, but Hong Kong's Hang Seng dropped 0.16%. China's Shanghai Composite rose 2.62%, the strongest gainer in Asia.

Most European markets are positive, but some were only minimally so as this report was first being prepared, improving during the time it took to prepare the report. Various bourses were digesting earnings reports and then economic releases, and have since improved although some of those earnings releases were not received with cheer. Germany's chip maker Infineon Technologies and France's auto manufacturer Peugeot SA were among companies whose reports were received with mild disappointment. Infineon's Q3 loss widened more than expected. Peugeot reported first half net profit that fell 20.6%, below forecasts. The U.K.'s oil major BP PLC also reported and was lower in early trading after its earnings report. Car maker Renault declined, too, with Japan's Nissan owning a 44% position in the European automaker and Nissan disappointing.

Germany did receive good news on the economic front. The IFO index for July beat expectations, with its business confidence index rising to 95 from June's 93.3. An increase had been expected, but only to 93.9. Current business conditions and expectations for the next six months both rose. Recently, Germany's Bundesbank predicted that Germany's economy will expand only half as much this year as it did last year. Italy also saw a boost in business confidence, with its Isae Institute reporting a rise to 86, above expectations for a rise to 84.7. The Italian government expects flat growth this year, with the Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development believing that there will be a contraction.

As of 6:52 EST, the FTSE 100 was higher by 7.10 points or 0.13%, at 5,277.80. The CAC 40 was higher by 22.59 points or 0.51%, at 4,444.71. The DAX was higher by 13.86 points or 0.29%, at 4,856.56.

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