Option Investor
Printer friendly version
Jeff Bailey : 7/28/2005 2:51:17 AM

Weekly Crude Oil Inputs and Capacity table at this Link . Here I've started to measure Changes on a week-to-week basis, as well as 1, 2, 3 months and versus a year ago.

Why did Weekly Gross Inputs Change fall by 322K and 580K for the respective weeks of 07/08 and 07/15? Probably weather/hurricane activity is my thought.

Refining capacity has increased by 84K barrels the past 3 months and has increased by 244K barrels versus a year ago.

Jeff Bailey : 7/28/2005 1:47:46 AM

Table of Crude Oil / Gasoline / Distillates found at this Link ... My fundament forecast/prediction that refiners might start shifting some focus away from distillates and back toward gasoline refining looks to have been incorrect (based on this SUPPLY data) as I would have predicted distillates to have grown by less than 2.2 million barrels and drawdown in gasoline to have abated from the prior week's (07/15/05) drawdown of 1.3 million barrels.

I did find the raw inputs and utilization data I was looking for at this Link ... It would appear that Operable Capacity is increasing. These figures look to be "ballpark" and somewhat constant for weeks at a time.

The Percent Utilization of Refinery Operable Capacity (%) looks to be derived from the U.S. Weekly Gross Inputs into Refineries.

Percent Utilization = Gross Inputs / Operable Capacity

Still, I would consider this to be SUPPLY data, not the DEMAND data I would like to get my hands on.

However, we can begin to see/feel the relationship of Gross Inputs that are pumping into refiners, what their Operable Capacity is and the derived Percent Utilization.

In the U.S., we can perhaps see that OPEC isn't telling a lie when it talks about "production isn't the entire problem." With Operable Capacity at roughly 17.13 million barrels per day, what good would it do if refiners had Gross Inputs of 20.13 million barrels per day (3 million barrels excess)?

Hmmmm.... thinking of it this way, Operable Capacity is somewhat of a max demand indication isn't it?

Gross Inputs could still be viewed as somewhat of a demand indication. If I'm a refiner and believe PRICE has risen too much, which might limit demand for my refined product, I might not order/buy as much oil this week, especially if I've built a stockpile of the product(s) I'm refining

Hmmmm... I'll bet we could come up with several hypothesis as it relates to an ECONOMIC forecast don't you? This will take some work/testing for sure, but one hypothesis might be .... When Gross Inputs increase to a level where Percent Utilization of Capacity rises above 90%, then economic expansion has occurred.

Jeff Bailey : 7/27/2005 10:26:53 PM

Daily/Weekly Pivot Matrix for Thursday at this Link

OI Technical Staff : 7/27/2005 9:59:59 PM

The Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

Disclaimer: Stocks discussed in the Market Monitor are for educational purposes only and any analysis is not meant to imply a recommendation for or against that stock. The analysts in this forum as on any other website are prohibited by the SEC from giving any specific advice to ANY individual trader. All information posted is for ALL readers and is not meant to be directed to any individual. Our analysts cannot answer any email questions regarding any specific stock. Please do not ask and please do not take offense if requests are denied.

Results posted in the Market Monitor are hypothetical and OIN does not claim that any reader achieved these exact results. Due to the lag time between research, writing, posting, uploading, reading and execution there will be differences between the actual signal given and the fill achieved by the reader. Fills may be better or worse but in most cases they will be different. The writers will make every effort to give advance notice of intended signals and indicate potential price targets. Your individual results may vary depending on your activity level and aggressiveness. This forum is intended as an education service only. Trading involves risk and should not be attempted by anyone not ready to accept this risk. By acting on any signal in this forum you agree and personally accept this risk.

Jeff Bailey : 7/27/2005 4:51:47 PM

Closing U.S. Market Watch found at this Link

Tab Gilles : 7/27/2005 4:44:15 PM

Citrix Systems (CTXS) Two weeks ago to the day I posted 11:25 AM that CTXS was a stock on my radar screen. Here's the chart I posted then.... Link

Today's daily... Link

Weekly chart... Link

Other recent news. Link Link From Briefing.com- Citrix Systems (CTXS) Legg Mason upgrades Hold to BUY. Target $30. Legg Mason upgrades CTXS following what they view as a solid quarter. Firm believes the co is making positive progress in growing its business outside of Subscription Advantage and say growth in Subscription Advantage while moderating remains solid overall. They also cite attractive valuation.

Jeff Bailey : 7/27/2005 4:41:16 PM

Closing Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/27/2005 4:22:52 PM

Today's Activity .... Day traded long shares of EMC Corp. (EMC) at the bid of $13.89, exited shy of $14.15 target at $14.02 ($0.13, or +0.94%).

Swing trade call option play with three (3) of the Coca Cola KO Nov $45 Calls (KO-KI) at the offer of $1.00.

Current OPEN MM Profiles found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 7/27/2005 4:00:55 PM

There went the advdec line up toward 900. Hmm. As early as 223, the five-minute Keltner channels were telling us that the advdec line hadn't put in a short-term top yet.

Linda Piazza : 7/27/2005 4:00:04 PM

The RLX hasn't been able to break out on the 30-minute Keltner channel this afternoon. Have to wait until tomorrow to see what happens, but tomorrow should be an important day. The OEX attempted several breakouts of its 15-minute channel, but couldn't follow through or maintain breakout levels and verges on a completion of a H&S on its five-minute chart.

Jeff Bailey : 7/27/2005 3:56:40 PM

Hanover Compressor (HC) alert $12.95 -0.23% ... reminder that HC reports quarterly earnings tomorrow morning.

Linda Piazza : 7/27/2005 3:53:52 PM

SOX now has a kind of two-headed or square-headed H&S on its 30-minute chart, neckline near 465.75, with the SOX near the appropriate under-477-ish right shoulder. Don't assume it will confirm, but watch it.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/27/2005 3:53:46 PM

I turned on the linear regression function just to see where the computer saw the channel, and it's been tracking very closely for the past 2 hours: Link . The market is prime here to cause maximal stress for bears gaming the daily cycle, with levels in breakout/throwover territory. If this bull run is the real deal, then there should be no ambiguity about it from here. Any weakness will confirm the daily cycle high with a double top- but again, this move is at the limit of the daily cycle. Above these levels, it will whipsaw in an upside trending move. 30 min channel support is up to 39.66, below which a 30 min cycle downphase should commence.

Linda Piazza : 7/27/2005 3:52:24 PM

RLX back to that breakout level on its 30-minute chart, the one that supported it for so long. Resistance at 485.37 on a 30-minute close. If it holds. If it doesn't, the RLX, that snake that strikes to the upside so often lately, will likely be invalidating that H&S on its 30-minute chart. I wouldn't trust a last-30-minute signal too much, though.

Linda Piazza : 7/27/2005 3:50:38 PM

Potential H&S on the OEX's five-minute chart.

Linda Piazza : 7/27/2005 3:48:58 PM

Will the advdec line see a last burst up toward the upper target, now near 990 on the five-minute chart and 970 on the 15-minute one? It remains a possibility, even if I can't judge whether it's a probability. I'd have a profit-protecting plans for my short-term longs if it does or if it falls back below 405 on a five-minute close. Don't take any of this as gospel. I just noticed some correlations in the movements of the advdec line and the Keltner targets a few days ago, but there seems to be some correlation at the outside boundaries.

Jeff Bailey : 7/27/2005 3:44:36 PM

Bullish day trade exit alert ... for EMC Corp. (EMC) at the bid of $14.02

Linda Piazza : 7/27/2005 3:42:47 PM

Advdec line testing support before meeting the 950-970 upside target. As long as it maintains five-minute closes above about 380 (number changes rapidly), it might continue to move toward that target. Below that, and a continuation of the bounce might be more questionable. At 571 as I type.

Linda Piazza : 7/27/2005 3:41:11 PM

DJUSHB still testing 1080, the preferred (by bears) right-shoulder level for a H&S on its 60-minute chart.

Linda Piazza : 7/27/2005 3:40:01 PM

Once again, the OEX punches slightly through the Keltner resistance on its 15-minute chart, but then turns back to retest it, not giving a firm sense of a strong breakout. Lots of resistance overhead, but as long as the OEX maintains 15-minute closes above a Keltner line currently at 574.63, it might continue to challenge that resistance.

Linda Piazza : 7/27/2005 3:38:31 PM

SOX still climbing the underside of that rising trendline off Monday's low, roughly congruent to its former rising regression channel's former support, although that may be a little higher, now at about 477, near the descending trendline off Friday's high. All three trendlines will come together at about 477. The SOX is at 474.42 as I type.

Linda Piazza : 7/27/2005 3:36:24 PM

BIX at 364.43. The 200-sma at 364.59.

Jeff Bailey : 7/27/2005 3:33:48 PM

NYSE Composite (NYA.X) 7,467 +0.52% ... all-time high alert.

Linda Piazza : 7/27/2005 3:32:46 PM

Watch for a possible short-term topping out of the bounce when the advdec line approaches 950-970 (new numbers). I haven't watched these figures long on the Keltner charts, but it's been roughly accurate (not exactly) on swing highs and lows for the advdec line, at least. Not sure that translates well into action on the indices. Haven't watched long enough. Advdec line at 744 as I type. Gotta step away for a few minutes again.

Linda Piazza : 7/27/2005 3:30:30 PM

OEX again attempting a breakout on the 15-minute chart, but in the last minutes of the day and with the advdec line perhaps approaching a turn-around point. I don't feel comfortable recommending an upside play anyway with the SOX and BIX action today. The BIX is rising for a test of its 200-sma from the underside. The SOX is rising toward an important test near 477. Outcome not determined yet on either.

Linda Piazza : 7/27/2005 3:28:25 PM

Advdec line at 648 issues now. Still making progress toward the upper Keltner boundary on the five-mintue chart. I'd have profit-protecting plans for my short-term longs if that upper boundary, now at 959, is hit or even approached.

Jeff Bailey : 7/27/2005 3:27:26 PM

Amazon.com (AMZN) $43.41 +15.02% ... gets the trade at BLUE #2.

Linda Piazza : 7/27/2005 3:24:32 PM

I'm going to be in and out for the next few minutes. Will check as often as I can. The OEX continues to challenge Keltner resistance, now at 575.26 on 15-minute closes. Watch the advdec line, too.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/27/2005 3:23:53 PM

Price is coiling at the top, either in a pennant or rising triangle, both bullish in the current context. The 30 min channel has flattened from its previous rise, within the still rising 60 min channel and the stalled daily cycle rollover. If this is a final upside retest/shakeout for the daily cycle top, it's a very convincing one. Bears need to see south of the 72 SMA at 39.60 to turn the 30 min channel down- confirmation comes below daily R1. Above that, the bulls have the ball.

Linda Piazza : 7/27/2005 3:23:27 PM

Advdec line still making progress toward the 940-ish level, at 466 as I type. Bounce attempts may not yet be finished, as long as the advdec line maintains support above -68, but perferably above -214.

Linda Piazza : 7/27/2005 3:22:30 PM

SOX turning down still from that trendline that it's been following higher today, but not far enough down from it to give bears much comfort.

Jeff Bailey : 7/27/2005 3:20:58 PM

Bullish day trade raise stop alert ... for EMC Corp. (EMC) $14.03 +0.07% ... to $13.97.

Linda Piazza : 7/27/2005 3:19:35 PM

What do you know. I've been waiting for the RLX to pop up to 484-485, and it just did. It's at 483.73 as I type, having backed off the just-reached high a little bit. Bears want to see the RLX turn lower before about 485, although I see that its former rising regression channel's support now crosses a bit higher, at just under 486. Anyway, we're getting the right-shoulder test now. Link

Linda Piazza : 7/27/2005 3:15:54 PM

BIX still holding near 364, at 364.09 as I type.

Linda Piazza : 7/27/2005 3:15:28 PM

Advdec line still making progress toward that 940 zone, now up to 950, with the advdecline at 439 as I type. Keltner resistance is trying to snake above it, though, and it needs to really break free if it's going to move up to that target. If it does approach 900-950, though, short-term bulls might guard profits. Same thing if it falls below about -90 issues on a five-minute close.

Linda Piazza : 7/27/2005 3:13:06 PM

Right on cue, the OEX appears to be turning down from Keltner resistance at 575.22 on the 15-minute chart. During the last 15-minute period, it closed about five cents above the then-current resistance level, which is why I warned against a long signal at all and especially on a tepid break above that line. There's that trendline off the 7/14's high's potential support, though, at about 574.60, so it may not all be over. OEX at 574.94 as I type.

Jeff Bailey : 7/27/2005 3:10:44 PM

03:00 Internals found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 7/27/2005 3:06:29 PM

The advdec line is turning down toward support, a word I use loosely as I haven't tested this behavior on the Keltner charts for very long. As long as the advdec line holds above about -140, it still looks possible for it to continue moving toward the outer channel boundary, in the 940 level, but it's somewhat suspect that it hasn't been able to make much progress.

Linda Piazza : 7/27/2005 3:04:50 PM

The Wilshire 5000 bounced above yesterday's high, but is turning down toward the midline of its rising regression channel again. It's mostly been holding to that midline on 60-minute closes since yesterday morning. The midline is at about 12,346, I believe, although that's an approximation.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/27/2005 3:04:01 PM

Volume breadth is firmer, but by no means extreme- still holding near even, +1.48:1 on the NYSE and +1.42:1 on the Nasdaq. The message of the TRIN and TRINQ is similar, not extreme either at .54 and .85 respectively. Does it mean that the buying is weak? Or perhaps that it's balanced and sustainable?

Jeff Bailey : 7/27/2005 3:02:06 PM

03:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 7/27/2005 3:01:40 PM

DJUSHB up to that 1080 level that the bears would like to see hold as resistance, although as long as prices turn down from near or above 1100, the potential H&S isn't invalidated. So far, not showing any signs of a downturn at 1080, but watching.

Linda Piazza : 7/27/2005 3:00:20 PM

SOX still can't move over that trendline, although it's of course climbing with the climbing trendline. Guess we'll have to wait for a test of 477, if that comes, to see the outcome.

Linda Piazza : 7/27/2005 2:59:46 PM

Maybe there's something to this advdec line on the Keltner chart. That was telling me at 2:23 (see my post) that the bounce attempt might not yet be over. I'm not sure that the advdec line is going to make it up to that 940 target area, but if it does, I'd have profit-protecting plans on my short-term longs. Needs to stay above Keltner support, now at -180, to keep that target in sight. Advdec line at 382 as I type.

Linda Piazza : 7/27/2005 2:56:45 PM

SOX back at that trendline that turned it back at about 12:15, and, temporarily a few minutes ago. More important trendline is just over 477, at the descending trendline off Friday's high.

Linda Piazza : 7/27/2005 2:55:53 PM

OEX challenging breakout level, at 575.15 on 15-minute closes, with the OEX at 575.16 as I type. Bulls, you don't want a really tepid breakout signal here, though, as two of those have been reversed over the last 7 sessions or so.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/27/2005 2:55:37 PM

30 min channel resistance has advanced to 39.80, support up to 39.50 as the 30 min cycle whipsaws to the upside, reversing its downphase almost before it started. The daily cycle rollover should stall if price can hold at or above current levels, kicking off a bullish upside trending move if such occurs. That's the less likely scenario, but it becomes moreso longer that current price gains hold.

Linda Piazza : 7/27/2005 2:54:54 PM

DJUSHB also rising to test a right-shoulder area on its 60-minute chart. Bears would rather it round over near 1080 but the formation probably wouldn't be invalidated by a rise up to 1100 or even slightly above, as long as the move was soon reversed. DJUSHB at 1076.50 as I type. Remember that this top-of-the-right-shoulder area is one at which markets sometimes move quickly to invalidate a H&S formation.

Linda Piazza : 7/27/2005 2:52:42 PM

The BIX bounce so far is just pitiful. BIX at 364.05.

Linda Piazza : 7/27/2005 2:52:12 PM

RLX hasn't broken over its right-shoulder level yet. I'm watching closely, though, as the RLX has been a snake that keeps striking to the upside just when you think it's been killed off. RLX at 482.99 as I type, about to challenge a 10:15 swing high from yesterday of 483.13, but 484-485 looks to be the real top of the right shoulder.

Linda Piazza : 7/27/2005 2:50:24 PM

OEX still consolidating along that descending trendline from the 7/14 high, still challenging the 575.08 next Keltner resistance on 15-minute closes. The OEX is at 574.71 as I type, the last 15-minute candle a doji.

Linda Piazza : 7/27/2005 2:48:34 PM

Advdec line hasn't been able to make much progress toward the 940 area. It's coming down to test "support." Over the last several days, I've been watching the advdec line on this Keltner chart, and swing highs and lows seem to be pretty well matching Keltner outer channel boundaries, but I'm not so sure about the inside-the-channel S/R levels. It appears that as long as the advdec line stays above about -225 but preferably +110 on five-minute closes, it may still challenge resistance, but if it drops below that, it's weakening again.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/27/2005 2:46:10 PM

Volume has been dropping on this most recent leg higher, and is picking up on the downside over the past few hundred ticks. A short cycle downphase is due, on the verge of being overdue, but bulls are looking very strong on QQQQ here above the 72 SMA at 39.53, 2 cents above daily R1. Link

Linda Piazza : 7/27/2005 2:45:07 PM

SOX has not yet been able to break back above that rising trendline that blocked its progress at 12:15. Neither has it declined strongly during this 15-minute period, confirming an evening-star reversal signal. Instead, it's created another doji, side-by-side with the last 15-minute period's doji. Indecision is being signaled. We know that, but we don't know whether the SOX will continue pushing at that trendline or not. SOX at 473.99 as I type. Trendline about a point above that.

Linda Piazza : 7/27/2005 2:43:05 PM

OEX still challenging that upside breakout level on its 15-minute chart, with the breakout established on a 15-minute close above 575.09. I'd want it to be a strong close above it and not a tepid one. New upside target of 578.04 if the signal is met, but I won't be joining you on a long OEX play if you're so inclined if the signal is given. Just don't trust it.

Jeff Bailey : 7/27/2005 2:41:50 PM

Coca Cola (KO) $44.15 +1.05% here.

Jeff Bailey : 7/27/2005 2:41:18 PM

Bullish swing trade call option alert ... taking three (3) of the Coca Cola KO Nov $45 Calls (KO-KI) at the offer of $1.05.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/27/2005 2:37:26 PM

Volume breadth +1.41:1 on the NYSE, +1.37:1 on the Nasdaq. 58.8M QQQQ shares have traded so far, looking heavier than yesterday but still relatively light.

Tab Gilles : 7/27/2005 2:36:55 PM

The Energy Department's latest report showed crude oil stocks fell by 2.3 million barrels to 317.8 million barrels, or 7 percent above year ago levels. The supply of distillate grew by 3.1 million barrels to 125.8 million barrels, or 5 percent higher than last year. Link These figures should calm traders fears who believe we are in a shortage according to the DOE back in July of 2002 we had 304 MB in storage of crude oil, in July 2003 we had 283 MB in storage we have 6% more supplies than '02 and almost 14% more inventories than we did in '03 yet prices are doubled from the same time period. I see oil trading closer to $50 within the next month or so and I believe we just may have seen the peak in prices this year when we were trading at $62. A drop on oil should rally the markets.

Murphy Oil (MUR) Link

Linda Piazza : 7/27/2005 2:35:07 PM

OEX stalling beneath next 15-minute Keltner resistance, but actually at a best-fit trendline drawn off the 7/14 high. The OEX has twice breached this trendline for short periods and then dropped back beneath it, but it still seems to have some relevance. It's at about the current 574.65-ish level.

Linda Piazza : 7/27/2005 2:33:34 PM

Not sure the bounce is over. Watching the advdec line on a five-minute Keltner chart, it looks possible for that line to climb toward 943.59, if it holds above about -164 on five-minute closes.

Linda Piazza : 7/27/2005 2:30:48 PM

OEX testing the upper Keltner channel at 575.04, but not quite touching it and certainly not yet closing a 15-minute period above it. OEX bulls and bears have a decision to make here. Bet on a rollover at this channel top that has contained so many movements or just watch and wait for a channel breakout, to either side? I don't think a long bet is a great idea with so many indices showing troubling signs, including the BIX. It may have been a tepid oversold bounce on the BIX that even allowed this OEX bounce to occur. Some other indices are seeing what may be oversold bounces, too--yet to be proved--and that's just not good evidence on which to base an upside breakout play, I don't think. This may be a good time to bet on another rollover through the channel, if there's no breakout, but there's no sign of a rollover as yet, and the OEX continues to challenge that upper resistance, trying its best to break out.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/27/2005 2:30:27 PM

The SOX is relatively tame here, not having broken today's morning high or yesterday afternoon's range, a very different picture from that of the Qs. 3-min 2 day SOX chart at this Link

Linda Piazza : 7/27/2005 2:27:19 PM

SOX still testing the rising trendline that turned it back near 12:15. There's a slight pullback from that trendline, but nothing definitive yet. There may be a doji forming on this 15-minute period's candle, but that could change by the next few minutes, when the period ends. If there's a doji, then bears want to see a pullback from that doji during the next 15-minute period, hopefully back to or below 472. Bulls want to see a continued climb, of course.

Jeff Bailey : 7/27/2005 2:26:09 PM

VXO.X 9.67 -2.91% ... gets red below its DAILY S1. Follows the VIX.X

Jeff Bailey : 7/27/2005 2:23:12 PM

Cisco Systems (CSCO) $19.17 +0.57% ... high of the day and DAILY R1 ($19.15).

Jeff Bailey : 7/27/2005 2:22:24 PM

Amazon.com (AMZN) $42.81 +13.38% ... high of the day and 80.9% retracement.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/27/2005 2:21:00 PM

QQQQ back to a new session high at 39.67. Daily R2 is at 39.70, the top of confluence at the highs for this move. The daily cycle rollover is in trouble above that level.

Linda Piazza : 7/27/2005 2:20:11 PM

Is the OEX making a try for a breakout above the Keltner line currently at 574.97? Are the generals going to take over for flagging front-runners now? The OEX is at 574.34. Remember that you need a 15-minute close above that Keltner line and remember that the last two attempted breakouts have soon seen reversals.

Linda Piazza : 7/27/2005 2:18:41 PM

RLX still couldn't bounce up to 484-485, at least not yet. This right shoulder has gone on a long while now, though, and the RLX needs to confirm it or the formation may not have much validity. The right shoulder is itself now formed of a rough H&S formation, as was the left shoulder. Need a drop below 479 to confirm this, although the 15-minute 100/130-ema's at 480.68 and 479.83 may be marking the actual neckline. BIX at 481.78 as I type.

Jeff Bailey : 7/27/2005 2:16:57 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 7/27/2005 2:15:56 PM

BIX attempting a bounce. Not much yet, but trying. The 200-sma is now above, at 364.59, with the BIX at 363.78 as I type.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/27/2005 2:14:52 PM

QQQQ violates upper 30 and 60 min channel resistance- either time for the bears to push back, or the start of a very bullish trending move. Price generally pulls back from these keltner breaks: Link

Linda Piazza : 7/27/2005 2:14:43 PM

SOX about to test the trendline that turned it back at 12:15. A more important trendline may be the descending trendline off Friday's high, with that trendline at about 477.09 currently. SOX at 474.29 as I type, just below the first-mentioned trendline at about 474.75.

Jeff Bailey : 7/27/2005 2:11:56 PM

Bullish day trade raise stop alert ... on EMC Corp. (EMC) $13.94 -0.57% .... to break even.

Jeff Bailey : 7/27/2005 2:10:36 PM

02:00 Internals found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 7/27/2005 2:10:29 PM

The OEX did break above a descending trendline off Monday's high, but it's pausing at first Keltner resistance it encountered after doing so, at 573.95 on 15-minute closes. Next, and more important, resistance at 574.94 on 15-minute closes. Still just rattling around.

Linda Piazza : 7/27/2005 2:09:05 PM

BIX tried a bounce but didn't get far. Yet, at least.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/27/2005 2:08:50 PM

VX0 9.77, VXN 13.13

Linda Piazza : 7/27/2005 2:07:16 PM

SOX bouncing again. Bears want to see it turn lower before 475, the current site of a supporting line that the SOX broke through earlier today, then retested. This is just a rising trendline off Monday's low. The former support for its recent rising regression channel may be a bit higher, as my two versions of QCharts on my different computers show slightly different versions of that channel. SOX at 473.61 as I type.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/27/2005 2:05:37 PM

Upside break for QQQQ, running to 30 and 60 min channel resistance lined up at 39.59: Link

Linda Piazza : 7/27/2005 2:04:52 PM

DJUSHB still in an appropriate right-shoulder area for a H&S on its 60-minute chart. I was looking to see if the Beige Book release impacted it. So far, not much. Bears would prefer it stay beneath 1080 and roll over, although a climb as high as 1100 wouldn't necessarily undo the H&S potential. Bears want a strong climb past 110 and then this month's high. DJUSHB at 1070.66 as I type.

Linda Piazza : 7/27/2005 2:02:17 PM

BIX easing still, although the 15-minute candles grow smaller and smaller. It certainly looks as if it needs to form a bear flag and climb higher to remove some oversold pressure, with the BIX pushing against lower Keltner support on the 15-minute chart. It's in danger of creating a new downside breakout signal on this chart unless it bounces soon. Or maybe it will just keep pressing that line lower without violating it.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/27/2005 2:01:58 PM

Fed Beige Book at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/27/2005 2:01:58 PM

02:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 7/27/2005 2:00:57 PM









Jonathan Levinson : 7/27/2005 2:00:02 PM

Volume breadth has made it back to positive for QQQQ, 1.03:1, 1.08:1 on the NYSE. Beige Book due now.

Linda Piazza : 7/27/2005 1:56:57 PM

Hmm. The OEX may be sneaking above the descending trendline off Monday's high. Hasn't comfirmed by a move above yesterday's high and the current 15-minute candle, the one doing the sneaking, is a doji, so this is not exactly a decisive move so far. The OEX's neutral triangle had looked as if it were reforming itself into a bearish right triangle, but a higher high than yesterday's erases that potential.

Linda Piazza : 7/27/2005 1:53:57 PM

BIX still dropping, although candles grow smaller now. May be time soon for a bounce, up toward a retest of the 200-sma, perhaps. It's testing Keltner support as I type, with the BIX at 363.63. Much lower, and it will have created a breakdown signal on that chart.

Linda Piazza : 7/27/2005 1:52:29 PM

SOX coils near 15-minute 100/130-ema's and the 50% retracement of the decline off yesterday's last 15-minute swing high.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/27/2005 1:51:25 PM

Sept. crude oil is up .175 here at 59.375, coiling around both sides of the daily pivot: Link

Jonathan Levinson : 7/27/2005 1:43:50 PM

Stepping away for 5 minutes.

Linda Piazza : 7/27/2005 1:40:51 PM

The shape of the SOX's and RUT's movements today and that of the advdec line (five-minute charts) look similar. Hmm. Wonder where the money is going when there's a bump up in the advdec line?

Jonathan Levinson : 7/27/2005 1:37:36 PM

Session high for QQQQ at 39.53.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/27/2005 1:37:13 PM

The 2 year treasury auction generated a high-yield of 3.975%, with a bid to cover ratio of 2.38. Indirect bidders took 6.65B of the 20B total. This was the highest yield of the year, while the bid to cover ratio improved from June's 2.23 reading.

Linda Piazza : 7/27/2005 1:36:18 PM

At about 471.86 is the SOX's 50% retracement of the decline off yesterday's last 15-minute swing high into today's low. The SOX may be setting up a coiling formation around that level, as well as the 15-minute 100/130-ema's, near there, too.

Jeff Bailey : 7/27/2005 1:33:43 PM

Cisco (CSCO) $19.07 +0.05% ... trying to clear its DAILY Pivot ($19.03).

Linda Piazza : 7/27/2005 1:33:40 PM

The SOX's pullback off the high from a couple of hours ago looks flag-like, and the SOX hasn't soundly broken through the 15-minute 100/130-ema's, much less back below the 10-dma on the daily chart. I don't think we yet know whether it's through trying to push higher again.

Jeff Bailey : 7/27/2005 1:32:50 PM

EMC (EMC) $13.89 -0.92% ... nothing going on here at this point. Day's high/low has been $14.01-$13.80.

Jeff Bailey : 7/27/2005 1:31:33 PM

Outside of the BIX.X and SOX.X, the equity indices in the DAILY Pivot Matrix have all traded in a very tight range between DAILY S1 and Daily R1. BIX.X and SOX.X both violated DAILY S2s. Tough to pull the trigger on any trade today, let alone an index trade.

Linda Piazza : 7/27/2005 1:32:00 PM

OEX 15-minute Keltner channels are all lined up nice and neat within each other, boundaries equal distance from each other, the OEX trading in a straight line right in the middle. There's nothing to be foretold by this except that we have more waiting.

Linda Piazza : 7/27/2005 1:30:01 PM

TRAN drifting down for a test of the rising trendline off Monday's low, with that trendline now at about 3737 and with the TRAN now at about 3742.73.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/27/2005 1:28:13 PM

Volume breadth deteriorate to -1.4:1 for the Nasdaq as QQQQ tested the 39.40 support line, and is back to -1.09 as price bounces. The short cycle downphase is still in progress, but bullish divergences in the nested wavelet cycle are confirming its weakness so far.

Linda Piazza : 7/27/2005 1:21:09 PM

Still waiting for the RLX to give up and confirm the H&S on its 30-minute chart. Hasn't done so. It's at 480.11 and I think it probably needs to fall to 479 to confirm it.

Linda Piazza : 7/27/2005 1:18:28 PM

We've talked before about watching to see if bullish or bearish formations confirm and if their targets are met to help measure bullish or bearish strength. I think this little SOX H&S I was mentioning yesterday as visible on the five-minute chart certainly met its downside target. Link

Linda Piazza : 7/27/2005 1:12:57 PM

SOX tentatively back below those 15-minute 100/130-ema's, although there hasn't even been a 15-minute close below them yet. A bull/bear battle going on. I said earlier that bulls were so inured to buying dips, rightly so lately, that they might not hesitate to jump even if a decline had been precipitous, and that proved true. I said things might get hairy for bulls and bears, and that's been true, too, as both have gotten frights today. Battle still going on and might be waged at these averages.

Jeff Bailey : 7/27/2005 1:11:19 PM

01:00 Internals found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 7/27/2005 1:11:07 PM

BIX still dropping.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/27/2005 1:11:49 PM

A new short cycle downphase has kicked off, but the bulls are fighting for rising support connecting the session lows at 39.40: Link

Jonathan Levinson : 7/27/2005 1:04:04 PM

Ten year notes are returning to the lows, ZN down 11/64 at 111 9/64, with TNX up 2.4 bps at 4.263% and printing a bullish engulfing candle for the day: Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/27/2005 1:02:18 PM

01:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 7/27/2005 12:58:49 PM

There's a chance that the OEX has been building a bearish right triangle on its 15-minute chart, since Monday's high. Top trendline now at about 573.60 and bottom support about 571.74.

Jeff Bailey : 7/27/2005 12:57:28 PM

Bullish day trade long alert ... for EMC Corp. (EMC) $13.89 -0.92% here, stop $13.82, target 14.15 to the close.

Linda Piazza : 7/27/2005 12:54:55 PM

The TRAN's consolidation formation could be a "b" distribution pattern at the bottom of the decline off today's high, but so far the TRAN stays above an ascending trendline off Monday's low.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/27/2005 12:51:47 PM

Ignoring the descending trendline from Thursday, we could be seeing a bullish rising triangle below daily R1 at 39.52: Link

Linda Piazza : 7/27/2005 12:50:46 PM

SOX still testing the 15-minute 100/130-ema's at 472.09 and 471.56, respectively. These were support since 7/07, with the SOX closing beneath them for the first time this morning since then, and it's trying to maintain support there again. SOX at 472.30, and outcome unknown.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/27/2005 12:37:56 PM

QQQQ update at this Link with price retreating again from daily R1 and that descending resistance line from last Thursday's high. 72 SMA support is being tested now, but bears need a break below rising intraday support, while bulls are gunning for a descending resistance break above the session high. Currently the 30 min cycle is chopped but points lower (oscillator-wise), while the 60 min indicators point up. A short cycle downphase is due from current levels.

Linda Piazza : 7/27/2005 12:37:37 PM

BIX still testing its 15-minute 100/130-ema's.

Linda Piazza : 7/27/2005 12:36:15 PM

$BIX well below its 200-sma now. Not a good sign.

Linda Piazza : 7/27/2005 12:30:08 PM

SOX's 15-minute 100/130-ema's at 472.09 and 471.31, with the SOX at 472.45 as I type. It's retesting that former support to see if the decline this morning was just a fake-out move, or to see if it was real. Bears want a rollover and a new LOD. Bulls want a bounce and a high above yesterday's.

Linda Piazza : 7/27/2005 12:28:00 PM

Update of the SOX's challenge of Friday's gap and its own former rising regression channel. It's dropping back to retest the 15-minute 100/130-ema's as I type, so it's not all over yet, either direction, but so far, that resistance held. Now bears need support to fail. Link

Jonathan Levinson : 7/27/2005 12:24:39 PM

Volume breadth still just barely positive on both exchanges.

Linda Piazza : 7/27/2005 12:23:54 PM

OEX at mid-channel level on its 15-minute Keltner chart. At about 573.60, the OEX would be testing a new descending trendline off Monday's high. The OEX is at 573.20 as I type.

Linda Piazza : 7/27/2005 12:21:45 PM

The DJUSHB still consolidates on its 60-minute chart. This consolidation takes place just after the DJUSHB broke out of a long-term rising regression channel, and it forms the right shoulder of a possible H&S formation on top of that steep climb. A move above 1100 would tend to invalidate the formation, although a downturn near or before 1080 would produce a better-looking formation. The DJUSHB is now at 1070.17. I think it needs to drop below 1050 before we could consider the formation confirmed.

Linda Piazza : 7/27/2005 12:17:37 PM

The SOX is retesting this channel's support as well as the top of Friday's gap: Link

Jonathan Levinson : 7/27/2005 12:15:12 PM

It looks like this secondary launch in QQQQ was fueled by the SOX, which went vertical there, retesting 474 resistance but pulling back here: Link

Linda Piazza : 7/27/2005 12:14:40 PM

The SOX is now all the way back up at the top of Friday's gap higher, retesting that gap level to see if it holds as resistance.

Jeff Bailey : 7/27/2005 12:14:30 PM

Bullish day trade cancel setup alert ... for Amazon.com (AMZN) $42.50 +12.58% ... let's look somewhere else to the close.

Linda Piazza : 7/27/2005 12:13:53 PM

BIX isn't bouncing much. It's at 364.16, below the 200-sma, and near the day's low of 363.90.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/27/2005 12:12:42 PM

Ten year notes have bounced off their morning lows but are stalling at a lower intraday high, with TNX currently up 1.2 bps at 4.251%, at its opening levels. Sept. crude is up a nickel at 59.25.

Jeff Bailey : 7/27/2005 12:12:28 PM

12:00 Internals found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 7/27/2005 12:09:49 PM

Next 15-minute resistance for the SOX, if i closes this period above 472.30, as it appears it might do, is at 476.85 on 15-minute closes.

Linda Piazza : 7/27/2005 12:08:40 PM

RLX still within an appropriate right-shoulder level for the H&S for its 30-minute chart. It's at 481.07, with the top of that shoulder level at about 484-485. It took a long time for the left shoulder to form, so it hasn't bumped around too long in the right-shoulder level to have invalidated the formation. Not yet. It hasn't confirmed it yet, either, of course, as I'm using a marker of 479 as a confirmation level.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/27/2005 12:05:19 PM

Volume breadth has flipped back to light positive territory, +1.11:1 and +1.04:1 on the NYSE and Nasdaq respectively. QQQQ volume is very light (again) at 34M shares traded so far today, just under half of yesterday's sub-average total.

Jeff Bailey : 7/27/2005 12:05:34 PM

FreightCar America (RAIL) $28.16 +20.29% ... #4 percentage gainer at this point.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/27/2005 12:04:05 PM

Back to find QQQQ spiking back above the 72 SMA and reaching for the session highs. Descending trendline resistance from last week is at 39.49 currently. Link

Linda Piazza : 7/27/2005 12:03:55 PM

The SOX has now bounced all the way back to the 15-minute 100/130-ema's, now testing the 100-ema at 472.05, with the 130-ema at 471.27. The SOX is at 471.10 as I type.

Linda Piazza : 7/27/2005 12:02:46 PM

The SOX made it above that first 15-minute Keltner resistance and bounced all the way up to the resistance clustered around 572. That resistance stretches up to 472.24 on 15-minute closes.

Jeff Bailey : 7/27/2005 12:01:34 PM

12:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/27/2005 11:56:45 AM

10 Most Active ... SUNW $3.87 +0.51%, QQQQ $39.37 -0.12%, JDSU $1.57 -2.48%, MSFT $25.64 +0.39%, AMZN $42.37 +12.26%, LU $2.93 +2.44%, INTC $26.74 -0.55%, SPY $123.17 -0.13%, GLW $19.24 +5.71%, DAL $2.87 -15.33%.

Linda Piazza : 7/27/2005 11:53:40 AM

Stepping away for a few minutes.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/27/2005 11:49:45 AM

Stepping away for 5 minutes.

Linda Piazza : 7/27/2005 11:48:05 AM

BIX still dropping. Just tested 364, at 364.20 as I type, and below the 200-sma at 364.59. Needs to bounce if it's going to avoid vulnerability to a steeper decline.

Jeff Bailey : 7/27/2005 11:39:52 AM

Amazon.com (AMZN) ... day trader's chart at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 7/27/2005 11:35:30 AM

August gold holding a fractional gain after bouncing from a lower low at 421.80. It has bumped its head at daily R1 at 424.80, but bulls need to crack the overhang to 429 to confirm any strength above the recent lows.

Linda Piazza : 7/27/2005 11:34:37 AM

RLX testing what may be the actual neckline area of its H&S, but I'm using a 479 level to be sure. I'm not trading this anyway, but rather using it as a guide for how things look for the OEX and markets in general. This index has been one of the strongest, and now one of the first to trade out of it rising regression channel, even if it's been a sideways move out of it. The RLX is at 480.02, moving up a little as I typed.

Linda Piazza : 7/27/2005 11:32:24 AM

RUT consolidating near the day's low in a pattern that could be a "b" distribution pattern. Have to wait to see how it breaks. It's testing the 30-minute 100/130-ema's, at 669.81 and 668.17, respectively, with the RUT between them at 669.38.

Linda Piazza : 7/27/2005 11:29:15 AM

Fifteen-minute Keltner picture for the SOX: Link Remember that the SOX tests daily Keltner support, too, down to 466.58.

Jeff Bailey : 7/27/2005 11:34:07 AM

Day trade long setup alert ... let's look to go long Amazon.com (AMZN) $42.46 +12.5% ... IF it pulls back to $42.15 again. Then place a stop at $41.98, target $43.40.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/27/2005 11:19:00 AM

QQQQ returns to rising channel support, just above the 72 SMA. A break below it should kick off a fresh short cycle downphase: Link

Linda Piazza : 7/27/2005 11:15:55 AM

The DJUSHB came close to confirming a H&S on its 60-minute chart during the last hour. It may actually have dropped minimally below that neckline, but I'm using 1050 as a neckline value and it stopped a couple of points above that and rises now. It's at 1062.38. As I mentioned earlier, that right shoulder is stunted with comparison with the left shoulder, so the DJUSHB might need to do a little more shoulder work before we know whether it's going to confirm or invalidate the formation. This is another of those edge-of-the-cliff indices, also testing the support of a long-term ascending regression channel, this one off an early May value.

Linda Piazza : 7/27/2005 11:12:33 AM

This morning, the Wilshire 5000 has been testing its 15-minute 100/130-ema's as well as 12,300 potential support. It's at 12,303.38 as I type. Since April, the DWC has been folloing a rising regression channel higher, and for most of July it's been hugging the midline of that channel, as it's doing today.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/27/2005 11:11:53 AM

Session high for Sept. crude oil, +.4 at 59.60.

Linda Piazza : 7/27/2005 11:08:52 AM

TRAN attempting a bounce from 3756-ish short-term historical support. It's at 3758 as I type.

Jeff Bailey : 7/27/2005 11:08:39 AM

11:00 Internals found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 7/27/2005 11:07:42 AM

BIX edging just below its 200-sma, and is already below the 50-sma. BIX needs a bounce if it's going to avoid dropping down toward the 360-361 zone.

Linda Piazza : 7/27/2005 11:05:07 AM

OEX is going nowhere, slowly. Very slowly.

Jeff Bailey : 7/27/2005 11:02:06 AM

11:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 7/27/2005 11:03:25 AM

Here's what the SOX's daily chart looks like, with the rising regression channel from the weekly chart shown here, too. That long-term channel has been in place since last summer. Link A close today beneath the 10-sma, shown here in blue, might be a sign that the SOX is ready to pull back and regroup before rechallenging that resistance, if not pull back further in a more pronounced fall, but the SOX is still clearly close enough that it could still break to the upside. A fitted Fib bracket (not shown here) suggests that it's possible that the SOX is topping out for this rally, but "suggests" and "promises" are vastly different. Remember that even if there's a pullback, we have to see the quality and strength of it before we get too bearish. This is still a rising regression channel.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/27/2005 11:00:55 AM

Volume breadth edges back to neutral/negative, -1.02:1 on the NYSE and -1.18:1 on the Nasdaq, overall volume still light. QQQQ stopped at a high of 39.52, confirming descending resistance, but bears want to see some volume come in on the decline. 72 SMA is now flat at 39.38, above which the intraday cycles have a bullish bias. Link

Linda Piazza : 7/27/2005 10:58:04 AM

TRAN still dropping, but still inside that consolidation zone at the top of its rise on the daily chart.

Jeff Bailey : 7/27/2005 10:57:49 AM

Cisco Systems (CSCO) $19.01 -0.26% ... either side of WEEKLY S1 so far. Tight $18.89-$19.09 intra-day range so far.

Linda Piazza : 7/27/2005 10:56:21 AM

SOX testing 15-minute Keltner resistance. If it can break above the current resistance, it might drive up to next resistance at 470.46 and then toward 472 if that doesn't hold. However, nearest resistance, up to 468.59 on 15-minute closes, is holding so far.

Jeff Bailey : 7/27/2005 10:56:33 AM

Yahoo! Inc. (YHOO) $34.24 +0.26% ... trading its 07/20/05 gap lower high here. Mark Davis has a GOOG call option trade going in the Futures Monitor. My thoughts are that if YHOO and move into the gap, then might be a "tell" for further strength in the GOOG.

Jeff Bailey : 7/27/2005 10:52:47 AM

Dow Transports (TRAN) 3,760 +0.51% ... 60-minute interval chart at this Link

Linda Piazza : 7/27/2005 10:49:58 AM

The SOX retests its 10-sma from the underside. It hasn't yet retraced even 38.2% of the decline off the last 15-minute high (from yesterday), with that level at about 470.40 and with the 50% retracement at 471.84. The SOX is at 468.59 as I type, having dropped back a little from its retest of the 10-sma on the daily chart.

Jeff Bailey : 7/27/2005 10:49:28 AM

Union Pacific (UNP) $68.93 +0.61% ... probes morning high. 60-min interval chart with WEEKLY Pivot Levels and our retracement work at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 7/27/2005 10:47:31 AM

QQQQ tests declining resistance at 39.50: Link

Linda Piazza : 7/27/2005 10:47:13 AM

RLX still forming a right shoulder for a potential H&S on the 30-minute chart. Hasn't confirmed or invalidated. Here's an update on a chart from yesterday: Link The RLX's rising regression channel, shown on that chart, has been in place all month.

Linda Piazza : 7/27/2005 10:44:22 AM

The BIX's decline off the 7/15 high has a bit of a falling wedge look to it, with such formations in the past being considered bullish with a likely upside breakout. I don't think wedges have been particularly reliable lately, though. This comes as the wedge points the BIX down to its 200-sma, an average it's been testing today. Bears want a solid break below that average, at 364.59, with the BIX currently at 364.76. Bulls want a bounce from it, and a move above the descending trendline off the 7/15 high, with that trendline now just above 368.

Jeff Bailey : 7/27/2005 10:41:54 AM

Dow Transports (TRAN) 3,764 +0.61% ... 60-minute interval would show MACD starting to round higher, just above zero. Swing trade bulls would like to see cross above Signal on ramp to WEEKLY R1 (3,855.64)

Linda Piazza : 7/27/2005 10:39:52 AM

As I expected and warned, the SOX is trying to steady and bounce from its 30-minute 100/130-ema's. If it bounces, there are those Keltner levels I mentioned earlier in my 10:29 post, but I think it's also going to be important to watch the 15-minute 100/130-ema's since they were support for so long. Bears want to see them hold as resistance, if tested. They're now at 472.43 and 471.48, respectively.

You know, bulls have become so inured to dangers from any drop, that they're not scared to step in, no matter how precipitous the drop, so things could get hairy now for both bulls and bears.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/27/2005 10:39:18 AM

Session high as breadth goes positive, QQQ testing upper 30 min channel resistance at 39.48: Link

Jonathan Levinson : 7/27/2005 10:38:10 AM

Volume breadth -1.04:1 on the NYSE and -1.3:1 on the Nasdaq as QQQQ tests declining 72 SMA resistance at the top of the flag channel in the previously posted chart- breaking above as I type: Link

Linda Piazza : 7/27/2005 10:37:05 AM

OEX still inside that channel. I think it really is going to stay there forever. At least we've had parameters to watch, and a good channel to trade for a while. I don't think that's a good idea now, though, trading the channel's borders. Borders are now at 571.28 on the downside and 575.25 on the upside, but I'd be really, really careful with the upside with the OEX then moving straight into long-term resistance.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/27/2005 10:32:51 AM





Jonathan Levinson : 7/27/2005 10:32:35 AM

QQQQ edges higher, -.08 at 39.34 here: Link

Jonathan Levinson : 7/27/2005 10:31:59 AM

Sept. crude oil is flipping around but is net unchanged from its pre-report levels, +.125 at 59.325.

Linda Piazza : 7/27/2005 10:31:50 AM

TRAN not reacting much yet, but still slipping slightly lower.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/27/2005 10:30:52 AM

From the EIA website:

U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) dropped by 2.3 million barrels from the previous week. At 317.8 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories remain above the upper end of the average range for this time of year. Total motor gasoline inventories decreased by 2.1 million barrels last week, putting them in the upper half of the average range. Distillate fuel inventories rose by 3.1 million barrels last week, and are near the upper end of the average range for this time of year. Total commercial petroleum inventories decreased by 2.3 million barrels last week, but they remain near the upper end of the average range for this time of year.

Text of the report at this Link

Linda Piazza : 7/27/2005 10:30:24 AM

BIX is at its 200-sma.

Linda Piazza : 7/27/2005 10:29:29 AM

SOX still dropping, but still testing the 30-minute 100/130-ema's. Fifteen-minute downside target is now 462.01, which seemed so outlandish when I mentioned the target (then a bit higher) in my 9:53 post, but now doesn't seem quite so. I'd expect a bounce somewhere through here, and possibly right here, to rise up and test gathering Keltner resistance, first at 468.78-469.17 and then near 471.75-471.92, and then at 473.50-474.73.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/27/2005 10:26:53 AM

Sept. crude trades +.125 at 59.325, with approx. 5 minutes to go until the weekly supply data.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/27/2005 10:25:13 AM

Still no further updates from the Fed, and so the day's net is a drain of 3.25B.

Linda Piazza : 7/27/2005 10:23:18 AM

The TRAN did not quite drop low enough during the previous 15-minute period to confirm its evening-star formation on the 15-minute chart, but it's still dropping, and has now retraced slightly more than 50% of both the first 15-minute candle and the day's range. Inventories could completely change that picture.

Jeff Bailey : 7/27/2005 10:22:25 AM

TRAN Components sorted by Net% at this Link

Linda Piazza : 7/27/2005 10:21:51 AM

SOX still testing 30-minute 100/130-ema's.

Linda Piazza : 7/27/2005 10:21:12 AM

Here's the DJUSHB with respect to its rising regression channel. Lots of indices still on the edge of the cliff: Link Note the potential for a H&S to form on this chart, however, with a bounce from the 1050-ish level into a right shoulder still possible? Or has it already formed a stunted right shoulder? A quick drop below 1050 and follow-through would tell us it's already formed and confirmed.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/27/2005 10:19:13 AM

Stepping away for 10 minutes.

Linda Piazza : 7/27/2005 10:17:28 AM

RLX dropping a little, but still in that right-shoulder level. Needs to drop below 479 to confirm that H&S. It's at 481.11 as I type.

Linda Piazza : 7/27/2005 10:16:50 AM

OEX still in that channel. What can I say? It has, however, dropped beneath the support of the rising trendline off Monday's low.

Jeff Bailey : 7/27/2005 10:16:14 AM

Current OPEN MM Profiles found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 7/27/2005 10:16:03 AM

SOX still moving lower, moving lower today as fast as it's been zooming higher on other days. It's still testing those 30-minute 100/130-ema's, though, with those averages at 468.54 and 465.74, respectively, so I still think the bleeding may slow and a bounce attempt may begin. SOX bulls have reason to fear, but the day is far from over. The SOX's behavior has always shown a lot of correlation to Keltner levels on the daily chart, and there's daily support from 466.56-467.87, with the day far from over. If the SOX bounces from here, then it's been nothing yet but a drop down to test support that hasn't been tested since 7/20, even if the drop was somewhat precipitous. A lot precipitous. The 15-minute chart, which has shown some correlation over recent days, has a downside target of 462.13, with next resistance beginning at 469.17-469.34, and then just under 472.

Jeff Bailey : 7/27/2005 10:09:59 AM

Yesterday's Internals at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 7/27/2005 10:09:44 AM

Volume is very light so far, 13.4M QQQQ shares traded so far, with volume breadth running -1.42:1. We saw a similar setup yesterday, with a quick plunge into the 10:50AM low, followed by a choppy bounce that lasted until 2PM. Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/27/2005 10:09:09 AM

10:00 Internals found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 7/27/2005 10:07:15 AM

RLX at 481.66 after rising to test 483. It's still within a potential right-shoulder level, neither confirming nor invalidating the potential H&S on its 30-minute chart.

Linda Piazza : 7/27/2005 10:05:49 AM

SOX keeps dropping. That Keltner target that looked so outlandish, doesn't look quite so now, but the SOX now tests 30-minute 100/130-ema's, and I would expect that to perhaps slow the descent and maybe even prompt a bounc to retest resistance.

Linda Piazza : 7/27/2005 10:04:46 AM

TRAN turning down as bears would wish, but hasn't retraced half of the first 15-minute candle yet and certainly hasn't closed there. We have inventories to come and that could change the TRAN's outlook, either direction.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/27/2005 10:04:22 AM

QQQQ breaks the daily pivot and is testing 60 min channel support, rolling lower now. The 30 min channel bottom is down to 39.26, but those levels will descend so long as price holds below the 72 SMA at 39.43: Link

Linda Piazza : 7/27/2005 10:03:45 AM

OEX again testing the trendline off Monday's low, and is tentatively breaking below it as I type. Next Keltner support at 572.36 and then at 571.34.

Linda Piazza : 7/27/2005 10:03:05 AM

According to Keltner evidence, the SOX has now set a downside target of 462.27, but perhaps not before a bounce up to test 469-470.32 next resistance. Be aware that we still have other market-moving events due today.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/27/2005 10:02:48 AM

Still no followup from the Fed with its repo drain, but with the markets edging lower here, there's still time for another blast. The Fed's daily updates can be viewed at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/27/2005 10:02:12 AM

10:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 7/27/2005 10:01:07 AM

TRAN has a big white candle on the first 15-minute period of the day, a doji on the second. You know what to watch for next, and what to hope for if you're either a bull or a bear, but for newbies, bears want to see a downturn from the current level that retraces at least half that first candle's range at the close. Bulls want to see a move up from here, rejecting the potential evening-star pattern.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/27/2005 10:00:41 AM






Linda Piazza : 7/27/2005 9:59:21 AM

SOX below 10-sma but still close enough that we could consider the average being tested. Keltner-wise, the SOX might soon set a downside target of 462.32, unless it bounces back above a Keltner line currently at 469.95 within the next minute or so. It's at 468.51 as I type.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/27/2005 9:57:56 AM

The Fed's big 10.25B overnight repo expires today, and has so far been replaced by a 7B 5-day repo for a net drain of 3.25B... so far. The door is still open for an overnight repo, and the Fed has been very, very generous lately with its repos. Awaiting the New Home Sales report in 3 minutes.

Linda Piazza : 7/27/2005 9:57:07 AM

Wilshire 5000 has erased a big chunk of the first 15-minute period's gains.

Linda Piazza : 7/27/2005 9:56:13 AM

SOX testing its 10-sma.

Linda Piazza : 7/27/2005 9:55:47 AM

The TRAN is back in the area that's given it trouble over the previous four days. It's punched above about 3780 on three of the last four days, but has always closed back at or near that level. It's at 3789.72 as I type.

Jeff Bailey : 7/27/2005 9:53:53 AM

Union Pacific (UNP) $68.66 +0.20% ...

Jeff Bailey : 7/27/2005 9:54:12 AM

Dow Transports (TRAN) 3,788 +1.25% ... 80.9% conventional retracement here.

Linda Piazza : 7/27/2005 9:53:02 AM

SOX at 15-minute Keltner support at 470.26 with the SOX at 470.58. First resistance now in the 472.25 level, then near 474. A 15-minute close beneath that Keltner line sets up a target of 462.58, but remember the 10-sma between this level and that target.

Linda Piazza : 7/27/2005 9:51:13 AM

OEX right square in the middle of its running-straight-across-the-chart Keltner channel that's been containing it. Boundaries are at 571.40 and 575.38, and they're important on 15-minute closes.

Linda Piazza : 7/27/2005 9:50:12 AM

The BIX is falling to test its 30-sma as I type, with the 50- and 200-sma's not far below. They're at 364.85 and 364.59, respectively, with the BIX at 365.64 as I type, sitting just cents below the 30-sma at 365.76. The BIX's 200-sma runs just about straight across through the apex of the BIX's big broadening formation, and a sustained fall beneath it might make the BIX vulnerable to a further decline toward 360.

Jeff Bailey : 7/27/2005 9:49:51 AM

Garmin Ltd. (GRMN) $55.56 +5.87% Link ... off its best levels ($57.45) but higher after reporting Q2 net income of $74.2 million, or $0.68 a share, up from $56.3 million, or $0.52 a share, a year ago, citing growth in its automotive navigation products segment. Excluding a $1.5 million foreign currency loss, earnings per share were $0.69, up from $0.49 a year before.

Revenue rose 39% to $264.5 million.

Consensus was for earnings of $0.58 a share.

Linda Piazza : 7/27/2005 9:47:42 AM

The SOX closed the last 15-minute period at the 130-ema rather than below it, but it moves back below it and has just reached a new LOD as I typed. Unless there's a quick reversal, I think we can consider this first sign of a short-term change in trend to be confirmed. It's fast approaching the 10-dma at 469.78, and that will be another level to be closely watched for bounce potential.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/27/2005 9:46:24 AM

QQQQ seems to be bouncing from short cycle channel support a penny below yesterday's 39.40 pivot. Today's daily pivot is at 39.36, R1 at 39.52. The short cycle indicators are trying to get in gear to the upside with the 30 and 60 min oscillators, but so far the market feels heavier than the intraday cycle setup would suggest. Link

Linda Piazza : 7/27/2005 9:45:16 AM

I knew when the OEX was rising the way it was and other indices were weaker that the TRAN must be rising, and it is. Strong gain on the TRAN, without the TRAN ever reaching the downside target from its H&S on the 30-minute chart. The TRAN has bounced all the way up to retest the midline of its rising regression channel in place since late June. This has been a steep, straight-up climb. Be careful, as the TRAN often zooms pre-inventories number, with the same direction sometimes continuing and sometimes direction being quickly reversed.

Jeff Bailey : 7/27/2005 9:42:46 AM

Corning (GLW) $19.02 +4.4% Link ... testing its bearish resistance trend, something I didn't think we could see this year. The fiber optic/industrial materials maker said it earned $165 million, or $0.11 a share, in the April-to-June period, up from $108 million, or $0.07 a share, in the second quarter of 2004.

Sales jumped 17% to $1.141 billion from $971 million a year ago.

Excluding one-time charges of $0.09 a share, mainly to cover an asbestos settlement, Corning's profit of $0.20 a share beat the consensus forecast of $0.18 a share among analysts.

Linda Piazza : 7/27/2005 9:42:12 AM

Time for SOX bulls to pull this index up or it will have shown one sign, at least, of a slight change in tenor.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/27/2005 9:39:55 AM

VXO 9.96, VXN 13.46, with the realtime total put to call ratio at .63 as quoted by DTN.

Linda Piazza : 7/27/2005 9:39:52 AM

SOX now below the 15-minute 100-ema, moving down to test the 130-ema. Last 15-minute close at these averages were on 7/07. Last 15-minute close below them 7/05. SOX dropped below the 130-ema as I typed, but there hasn't been a close yet.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/27/2005 9:38:31 AM

Volume breadth is positive at the open, +2.14:1 on the NYSE and +1.33:1 on the Nasdaq, with the TRIN and TRINQ neutral at .86 and 1.0 respectively.

Linda Piazza : 7/27/2005 9:38:08 AM

RUT not doing much of anything this morning. It's still inside a consolidation pattern on the 15-minute chart, perhaps a bull flag forming below midline resistance from its rising regression channel, but it's having difficulty breaking out of that potential flag. RUT at 674.87 as I type.

Linda Piazza : 7/27/2005 9:35:28 AM

SOX still testing the rising regression channel support, and the rising trendline off Monday's low. It's also testing the 15-minute 100/130-ema's that have supported it through most of July. Those are at 472.87 and 471.76, respectively, with the SOX low at 473.05, just above the 100-ema on this chart. The SOX is attempting a bounce from this level, but hasn't gotten far.

Jeff Bailey : 7/27/2005 9:36:55 AM

Select Comfort (SCSS) $21.98 +14.55% Link ... the maker of mattresses posted net income of $7.9 million, or $0.20 per diluted share, in the second quarter ended July 2, compared to $5.7 million, or $0.14 a share, in the comparable quarter a year ago.

Net sales came in at $154.5 million in Q2 of 2005, up 23.9% from $124.7 million in the same period last year. Same-store sales rose 11% in Q2.

Linda Piazza : 7/27/2005 9:33:22 AM

RLX climbing into the right-shoulder area--just noticed that the right-shoulder formation has an inverse H&S, one that may be confirming or just being tested as I type. Upside target would be into that 484-485 level that's the top of the right-shoulder level for the larger, regular possible H&S visible on the 30-minute chart. Since this is a rise into a right-shoulder level and up to retest broken rising regression channel support, I'm not counting on any such target being met, but will watch.

Jeff Bailey : 7/27/2005 9:32:31 AM

Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) $19.89 +0.20% Link ... in its quarterly conference call, Sun Microsystems (SUNW) said it saw a 118% jump in the number of servers running Opteron chips supplied by AMD.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/27/2005 9:31:30 AM

QQQQ holds just below 72 SMA resistance at 39.45, with 30 and 60 min channel support lining up at 39.30.

Linda Piazza : 7/27/2005 9:31:21 AM

SOX dropping to the bottom of its newest rising regression channel, now testing the rising trendline off Monday's low.

Linda Piazza : 7/27/2005 9:30:50 AM

Here we go. The OEX opens at the rising trendline off Monday's late-day low and rises slightly from there, now testing mid-channel S/R on that same 15-minute chart.

Jane Fox : 7/27/2005 9:29:37 AM

Dateline WSJ Orders for long-lasting manufactured goods showed surprising strength in June as rising demand for computers and machinery helped offset an expected tumble in aircraft bookings.

The Commerce Department said Wednesday that durable-goods orders, or demand for goods designed to last at least three years, increased a seasonally adjusted 1.4% to $215.38 billion last month after rising an upwardly revised 6.4% in May. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires and CNBC had forecast orders would fall 0.5%.

Jeff Bailey : 7/27/2005 9:29:52 AM

Sun Microsystems (SUNW) $3.85 Link ... #5 most active in pre-market trade and higher at $4.01 after the company said it returned to profitability in its recently completed Q4. While computer systems sales fell 4%, server sales rose 7%. For the period ended 06/30, SUNW said it earned $121 million, or $0.04 per share, compared with a profit of $783 million, or $0.23 a share in the year-ago period (included a $1.6 billion settlement with MSFT).

Sales slipped 4.2%, to $2.98 billion from $3.11 billion in the same period last year.

Excluding special items, SUNW said it earned $200 million, or $0.06 per share, compared with a loss of $173 million, or $-0.05 per share, last year.

On that basis, SUNW's earnings beat Wall Street expectations. Analysts were expecting a profit of $0.01 per share on sales of $2.98 billion.

Jeff Bailey : 7/27/2005 9:19:04 AM

InfoSpace (INSP) $34.79 Link ... #4 most active and sharply lower at $24.15 after the developer and marketer of Internet wireless solutions said Q2 profit rose 21% to $16.3 million, or $0.44 a share, from $13.5 million, or $0.37 a share, a year earlier.

Revenue for the recently completed quarter jumped 53% to $83.2 million from $54.4 million.

Analysts were looking for a profit of $0.38 a share on revenue of $85.4 million.

The company forecasted Q3 earnings of $0.15-$0.20 a share on revenue of $75-$80 million. Consensus was $0.45 a share on revenue of $94 million.

Jeff Bailey : 7/27/2005 9:10:23 AM

Amazon.com (AMZN) $37.74 Link ... #3 most active in pre-market trade and higher at $41.95 after the online retailer said a $56 million income tax expense has quarterly profits slumping 32% to $52 million, or $0.12 a share vs. $76 million, or $0.18 per share for Q2 of 2004. Revenue for the recently completed quarter were up 26% to $1.75 billion vs. the same period last year ($+1.39 billion). Analysts were looking for earnings of $0.10 per share on revenue of $1.73 billion.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/27/2005 9:07:26 AM

The US Dollar Index gapped up on the Durable Orders release, peaking at 90.40 so far, while CAD futures have dived. Ten year note yields are now up 1.1 bps at 4.25%, while equities are holding their gains, QQQQ up a nickel at 39.47.

On a cycle basis, the 30 min cycle for QQQQ, which had stalled just below overbought territory yesterday afternoon, has turned back up to join the 60 min cycle's upphase. The daily cycle is in a downphase, but it remains weak, and the Macd has yet to confirm. This paints an ambiguous picture, and in either case, a break of 39.60-.70 to the upside or 39.10-.20 to the downside should at least seriously challenge this difficult range, if not break it.

Linda Piazza : 7/27/2005 8:57:29 AM

I've got a prediction regarding the OEX. It's going to stay in that 15-minute Keltner channel that currently spans from 571.48 on the downside to 575.30 on the upside, and going to stay there forever. At least, that's how it feels. The projection isn't a real one, of course.

Until this week, buying the bottom of that channel and selling the top has been a good bet, but the OEX is now narrowing its pattern, and yesterday's bounce off the bottom did not reach the top before the OEX moved back through the midline level. Is that a sign of the bulls weakening? Maybe, but that depends on whether the bottom is touched again before another bounce. The OEX could just be narrowing its pattern again, with yesterday's action creating no prediction as to eventual breakout. We've got good and well-tested parameters on the OEX, and we should just watch those.

Other indices had appeared to be perched on precipices as the day's trading began yesterday. The DJUSHB was one, and it clung to the support of its rising regression channel off the late-April levels, bouncing but not bouncing far ahead of today's numbers, and not completing a potential morning-star reversal signal on its 2-hour chart. At least it didn't rise high enough to complete a convincing one. The RLX had been another index on the precipice, and it traded sideways out of its sharply rising regression channel, in place this whole month. While such sideways breakdowns out of a channel are always suspect, the RLX perhaps creates a H&S on its 30-minute chart. A rise much above 485 would invalidate it, while a drop below 479 is needed to confirm it, with the RLX closing at 481.63. The RUT rose twice to test the midline of its sharply rising regression channel, not able to sustain values above the midline, but not falling back far, either. The RUT ended the day within its recent consolidation zone, too. The Wilshire 5000 also twice tested the midline of its rising regression channel and found resistance there. The TRAN didn't even get as far as the midline today, rising and then rolling slightly over, but not confirming by a low below Monday's or a drop below 3720, the bottom of its rising regression channel.

With the exception of the RLX, none of these have broken down out of their respective rising regression channels, and the RLX's breakdown is suspect, but a strong move by one might get the others moving in the same direction. Watch 479 on the RLX in particular. That would confirm the H&S, while a new high would invalidate it. Pay particular attention to the TRAN today with inventories expected, particularly if 3720-ish support is tested. Watch the SOX, rising, but with its 30-minute candles not showing much vigor and with the index not touching the midline of its rising regression channel.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/27/2005 8:33:05 AM

Equities are up on the news, QQQQ +.03 at 39.45, while bonds are down with TNX flat at 4.239% currently. Crude oil is up .075 to a session high of 59.275.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/27/2005 8:31:56 AM







Jonathan Levinson : 7/27/2005 8:20:05 AM



No notable reaction from the futures so far.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/27/2005 8:17:12 AM

Ten year note futures (ZNU5) are printing session highs here, +11/64 at 111 31/64. Ten year note yields (TNX) have been coiling at the highs, generally a continuation pattern but for the very toppy daily cycle indicators. The picture is further complicated by the fact that in the longer weekly timeframe, a strong upphase is only midway through its range, with plenty of room left. If TNX bears/bond bulls can't hold TNX below the key 4.25-4.29% confluence here at the top, then the 4.35% and 4.4% levels will come into view as a bullish upside trending move kicks in on the daily cycle. Daily candle chart of the TNX at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 7/27/2005 7:44:39 AM

From the Mortgage Bankers Association website:

WASHINGTON, D.C. (July 27, 2005) - The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) today released its Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending July 22. The Market Composite Index - a measure of mortgage loan application volume - was 754.3, a decrease of 5.8 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from 801.1 one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 5.6 percent compared with the previous week but was up 20.7 percent compared with the same week one year earlier.

The seasonally-adjusted Purchase Index decreased by 0.7 percent to 485.1 from 488.7 the previous week whereas the Refinance Index decreased by 11.4 percent to 2320.3 from 2618.2 one week earlier. Other seasonally adjusted index activity includes the Conventional Index, which decreased 6.0 percent to 1134.9 from 1206.8 the previous week, and the Government Index, which decreased 4.3 percent to 118.8 from 124.2 the previous week.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/27/2005 7:38:12 AM

Equities are flat-to-higher, ES trading 1235.75, NQ 1607, YM 10608 and QQQQ flat at 39.42. Gold is down 40 cents at 423.10, silver +.01 at .014, ten year notes +1/16 at 111 3/8, and crude oil -.225 at 58.975.

We await the 8:30 release of Durable Orders for June, est. -1%, then at 10AM, New Home Sales, est. 1.3M, and at 2PM, the Fed Beige Book.

Linda Piazza : 7/27/2005 6:53:58 AM

Good morning. The Nikkei climbed to its highest close since April last night, with most other Asian markets climbing, too. Most European markets are in the green this morning, although Germany's DAX had just slipped below the flat-line level as research for this report was concluded. European bourses have been helped by some positive earnings reports, but are not helped by semi-related companies, with some in that sector trading lower after disappointing earnings from two. Our futures trade near the flat-line levels, but above fair value as of 6:44 EST. Also as of 6:44 EST, gold was down $0.70, and crude, down $0.19 to $59.01. More detail about Asian and European markets follows in succeeding paragraphs.

The Nikkei zoomed higher in early trading Wednesday, quickly closing the gap from Friday morning. It was to close higher by 97.12 points or 0.83%, at 11,835.08, its highest close since April. Positive reactions to earnings, a firming dollar against the yen, and a slight easing of crude prices helped early trading get off to a strong start. Chip-equipment company Advantest was an early gainer after the company reported yesterday and said that an orders recovery was on its way. Nissan gained although Renault hadn't reacted well in European trading yesterday after Nissan reported, with Nissan a 44% owner of Renault. Most automakers were gaining as the dollar firmed against the yen. Manufacturer of Panasonic brands and other consumer electronics Matsushita gained ahead of its earnings report later in the day. Sharp and Canon were also among the companies to report Wednesday after the close, with Sharp rising in Wednesday's trading and Canon declining.

Most other Asian markets gained, too. The Taiwan Weighted was an exception, declining 0.61%. Although reports haven't been clear as to whether South Korea's chip manufacturer Hynix reported during the trading day or not, profit declined for the company due to falling memory chip prices, but the company still beat forecasts. South Korea's Kospi rose 0.22%, and Singapore's Straits Times climbed 0.51%. Hong Kong's Hang Seng rose 0.22%, and China's Shanghai Composite climbed 1.59%.

Most European markets trade in the green, too, although Germany's DAX had just slipped beneath the flat-line level as this report was concluded. Steel producers were climbing in early trading after strong results from AK Steel's earnings report, but semi-related stocks declined after STMicroelectronics SA and ASM International reported falling net income, in STM's case, and falling net earnings, in ASM's case. Renault fell yesterday due to Nissan's earnings report and declined further in early trading today after it reported its own earnings. It reported that H1 net profit rose 52%, at least partly helped by a transfer of some pension liabilities by part-owner Nissan to the Japanese government. The company maintained 2005's guidance. Other reporting companies include European Aeronautics Defense & Space Co., gaining after it reported a more than doubling of H1 net income and raised its earnings per share estimate for the year. Spain's Banco Santander Central Hispano gained modestly after reporting that it had experienced a significant increase in business activity in retail banking in Europe and Latin America. H1 net income rose 35.2%, revenue rose 33.9%, and loan-loss provision charges dropped 12.1%. Prudential was another reporting company, gaining after it beat expectations for operating profit and sales.

Deal-making and broker action impacted some stocks, too. France Telecom gained after announcing that it would take an 80% stake in Amena, a Spanish mobile operator. France Telecom will issue new shares to pay for the cash deal, and had good things to say about what the deal would do for its cash flow and net income before amortization of goodwill, after 12 months. France Telecom was gaining in early trading. Deutsche Bank upgraded Nokia, with Nokia gaining as a result.

As of 6:46 EST, the FTSE 100 was higher by 7.30 points or 0.14%, at 5,263.50. The CAC 40 was higher by 13.32 points or 0.30%, at 4,434.10. The DAX had slipped lower by 1.02 points or 0.02%, at 4,842.47.

Market Monitor Archives