Option Investor
Printer friendly version
OI Technical Staff : 7/28/2005 9:59:59 PM

The Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

Disclaimer: Stocks discussed in the Market Monitor are for educational purposes only and any analysis is not meant to imply a recommendation for or against that stock. The analysts in this forum as on any other website are prohibited by the SEC from giving any specific advice to ANY individual trader. All information posted is for ALL readers and is not meant to be directed to any individual. Our analysts cannot answer any email questions regarding any specific stock. Please do not ask and please do not take offense if requests are denied.

Results posted in the Market Monitor are hypothetical and OIN does not claim that any reader achieved these exact results. Due to the lag time between research, writing, posting, uploading, reading and execution there will be differences between the actual signal given and the fill achieved by the reader. Fills may be better or worse but in most cases they will be different. The writers will make every effort to give advance notice of intended signals and indicate potential price targets. Your individual results may vary depending on your activity level and aggressiveness. This forum is intended as an education service only. Trading involves risk and should not be attempted by anyone not ready to accept this risk. By acting on any signal in this forum you agree and personally accept this risk.

Jeff Bailey : 7/28/2005 9:34:18 PM

08:58:59 Continued ... Now let's take a look at HC intra-day. Same conventional (blue) and bullish fitted 38.2% (pink), but I've also calculated tomorrow's (Friday's) DAILY Pivot Levels. Here's the chart at this Link .... Again... I don't want to "get cute" with this trade. We're profitable and I don't want a profit to turn into a loss, but now we can envision a possible trade scenario. Will the specialist "make sure" HC gets bold print in this weekend's Wall Street Journal?

Guess what else a trader can do tomorrow? I'll turn on my 5-mrts. If I get another level at $13.97 (lower 5-mrt) and get an upper level at $14.87 or so, then that will be interesting indeed!

Think about the SHORTS in HC. This morning, I was "hoping" that HC would pull back to $13.10, monitor it closely, and if it started to pop back higher, close out those calls (while we're covered call, we're still short the calls. Bugger "popped," pulled back a little, but buyers drove it didn't they?

If any trader thinks that BULLS aren't trying to inflict some pain on shorts (oil service, healthcare, rails, internet, whatever) regardless of valuation, then be careful if your trying to pick tops (even if you don't think you're trying to pick a top for a "crisis reversal").

I've known some institutional BEARS that will want/need to cover an underlying short position, know there isn't any stock to buy into, and they'll actually BUY CALLS on the stock they're set to ramp higher with their short covering. Similar in a downward trend when they need to liquidate a long position as the stock breaks down. They'll buy puts before they dump the stock in force.

As I've said before, in UP and DOWN trends, traders will get more and more aggressive in the direction of the trend, try and inflict as much pain on the losing trade as they possibly can. They will continue to do it until they fail to find success.

Jeff Bailey : 7/28/2005 8:58:12 PM

08:29:59 Continued ... Now let's take a look at how GDI traded intra-day (using 10-minute bars so we can still read the chart as best we can). Same conventional retracement, but now we add the DAILY Pivot Levels, and our focus is 07/21/05 trade action (try to get a feel for what might happen with HC tomorrow (07/29/05). Here's the GDI intra-day chart at this Link .... contd ...

Jeff Bailey : 7/28/2005 8:29:59 PM

Hanover Compressor (HC) $14.25 +9.95% ... per this evening's 05:46:09 thoughts regarding trying to close out the covered calls for a loss, but get a little extra pop in the stock and then close it out. Sometimes this is similar to picking up dimes in front of a bulldozer, and traders should either sit and do nothing (let trade play out until expiration and have the stock called away).

Here we go ....

Quick review of HC's bar chart that we've been following/trading, but now I bring back the 07/20/05 observation of Gardner Denver (GDI) from 07/20/05 mention at 01:53:33 in Market Monitor. HC chart at this Link

Now... here's how GDI has traded since its very bullish move higher from 07/20/05 at this Link ... A trader that is holding HC stock long, and has written covered calls that are now in the money, may use recent trade action in GDI to try and envision future near-term trade in HC.

Jeff Bailey : 7/28/2005 7:37:37 PM

Pivot Matrix for tomorrow at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/28/2005 6:53:20 PM

eDiets (DIET) $4.76 +24.28% Link ...

Jeff Bailey : 7/28/2005 6:51:09 PM

Did somebody upgrade WTW Link and NTRI Link to "overweight" today?

Jeff Bailey : 7/28/2005 6:43:09 PM

Closing U.S. Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/28/2005 6:37:42 PM

Closing Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/28/2005 6:23:58 PM

Smith (AMEX:SWB) $4.76 +6.48% Link ... check those bullish vertical counts to assess risk/reward.

Jeff Bailey : 7/28/2005 6:27:44 PM

Sturm Ruger (RGR) $10.05 +9.95% Link ... per James Cramer. This bugger pays a hefty dividend too.

$0.40 annual per share.

Jeff Bailey : 7/28/2005 7:42:23 PM

Assurance .... I want to try and assure traders that are following my trade profiles that I do trade the bulk of my trade profiles in my own account.

I disclose if I currently have a position in the security I'm profiling (bullish/bearish) in an attempt to avoid any conflict of interest, otherwise, I take the position in my own account AFTER I profile the trade here in the Market Monitor. I have at times profiled "hedge trades" against a previously profiled (and sometimes like security), but I will always inform traders ahead of time that the newly profiled trade is a "hedge."

Linda Piazza : 7/28/2005 4:48:00 PM

The Nikkei may be important to watch tonight. Three important companies--consumer electronics manufacturer Matsushita Electric Industrial Co.; Kyocera Corp., manufacturer or ceramic packaging for chips; and Nintendo, handheld game manufacturer, each being the biggest manufacturer in its field--reported yesterday, perhaps after the close. The Nikkei has been in a giant triangle for a long time and now challenges the top resistance. Link It currently has an upside P&F target of 12,100, with the April 2004 high at 12,170.96, but a move above 11,900 will put another X on the P&F signal and create a new buy signal. The Nikkei has been creating a lot of possible reversal signals lately, such as dark clouds, doji, shooting stars, but it's just kept climbing in one of those much-to-be-despised wedges off May's low. Last week's candle was a doji, but this week has so far shown a gain, depending on what happens tonight. We should perhaps watch the Nikkei, but also watch our futures' reaction to the Nikkei's action, whatever it might be. Lately, I've been puzzled, because our futures show dampened reactions to the Nikkei's movements, at least compared to what used to happen when I first began doing the Asia/Europe report.

Jeff Bailey : 7/28/2005 5:46:09 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles at this Link

Today's Activity ... Bullish swing traded three (3) Wellpoint WLP Sep. $72.50 Calls (WLP-IV) at the offer of $1.05. No stop and targeting $74.33-$75.20 minimum.

Bullish swing trade sold 1/2 position and one (1) of the Union Pacific UNP Jan $70 Calls (UNP-KN) at the bid of $3.30 ($1.65, or 100%). Raised stop an remaining position should the stock trade $64.00.

Bullish swing trade rounded up to 3/4 position in shares of Cisco Systems (CSCO) at $19.23. Stop goes at $18.80 (with initial 1/2 position). Would still look to sell initial 1/2 bullish if target of $19.90 achieved, but observations of EBAY and AMZN may have traders wanting to hold some shares over earnings (08/09/05)

Swing trade raised bullish stop on the Hanover Compressor (HC) long stock / covered call position to $12.35. Stock simply blew up today and shorts look to be on the run. Haven't seen short interest update for 07/15, but noted 06/15 short interest was 7.38 million with days to cover at 8.91. Bulk of risk in this trade is all to the downside ($12.50 + $1.70 = $14.20) as there's no premium in the calls. May close this one out tomorrow for stock and calls. I might also take an intra-day risk and close out the calls for a loss, if it looks like stock has a shot at $14.85-$14.87.

Jeff Bailey : 7/28/2005 4:02:46 PM

e-mini S&P (es05u) settlement could be important. First chart I put together months ago at this Link and second chart I put together should the 100% of Chart #1 see settlement above at this Link

Linda Piazza : 7/28/2005 4:00:08 PM

The Wilshire 5000's chart suggests that, unless there's to be an upside breakout, it may soon be time for a pullback on the DWC. Unless and until it violates a channel line at 12,351.81 on a two-hour closing period, that would be nothing more than a normal pullback in a rising channel, though. Unless the advdec line reaches closer to 3091 by the close or opens there tomorrow morning, this morning's example suggests that there could be some more follow-through tomorrow morning. An open that has the advdec line gapping down below 2080 might suggest that further short-term upside potential (in the advdec) line is erased. Advdec line at 2635 as I type, moving higher fast. Remember that I'm just benchmarking impressions, and that there might turn out to be zero correlation with the advdec's movements or with indices' price patterns even if there is with the advdec line.

Linda Piazza : 7/28/2005 3:55:40 PM

The OEX erased its breakout signal and now rises to retest that signal, with a close above or below the Keltner line at 577.63 determining whether it does or doesn't. The OEX's climb has been laborious at best today. These generals are being dragged along with their heels dragging the ground.

Linda Piazza : 7/28/2005 3:53:55 PM

The BIX did not form a right shoulder for its possible H&S on the 15-minute chart, but instead dropped almost straight to what would have been the downside target. It's steadying near 365, at 365.18 now after a small bounce. With the 200-sma support just beneath at 364.59, it may need another retest of those 15-minute 100/130-ema's before it gives up, if it does. They're at 365.72 and 365.97, respectively.

Linda Piazza : 7/28/2005 3:51:25 PM

I absolutely could not see myself buying something when a first 15-minute gravity-defying run-up was immediately reversed. Who does that? Obviously, someone smarter than I am in the TRAN and some other indices, but it seems to me as if there's a great underground battle going on, and we're only seeing glimpses of it, in the increasing volatility in some of the indices. Not the poor OEX, of course. I personally do not like being caught up in such battles.

Linda Piazza : 7/28/2005 3:45:16 PM

The owner of the chemical plant that exploded in Fort Worth is on the phone with a local news station. The fire can apparently be seen as far as 20-25 miles away, but the owner says that all 17 employees at work have been accounted for, with only one injury, deemed not too serious at this point. CNBC reported the fire at Valley Solvent, but I wasn't sure if they were reporting this information.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/28/2005 3:43:47 PM

Session low for GOOG here at 293.55, down more than 1.1%.

Linda Piazza : 7/28/2005 3:43:25 PM

RLX at 488.26, near the high of the day. I've been watching the RLX challenge the top of its broadening formation on its 60-minute chart, with that top now near 490. I want to see a big downturn in this index before I believe too strongly in an OEX downturn, and that hasn't happened yet. The climb on the 15-minute chart looks like a rising wedge, which should break to the downside, but seldom do these days.

Linda Piazza : 7/28/2005 3:40:10 PM

The OEX is again erasing its breakout signal, if the current 15-minute close is below 577.39.

Linda Piazza : 7/28/2005 3:34:44 PM

BIX hasn't bounced from 363.35, as I thought it might try to do, forming a right shoulder for a H&S beneath the 15-minute 100/130-ema's. It's sitting right on it instead.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/28/2005 3:35:24 PM

QQQQ bounced again after spending a few minutes below the 72 SMA, like snorkeling in the shallow end. Volume breadth holds light positive, volatility still in the cellar. The strength since yesterday has overpowered the daily cycle downphase, a rare occasion, and I'm thinking that this is related to the upphase in the weekly noted earlier. We often see a terminal blowoff to complete the longer cycles- those high volume intraday doji reversals. With the weekly trying to top out here as well, this could be that same action providing strength to overcome the potential bearishness in the shorter timeframes.

If so, then bears need to be patient, because a weekly top doesn't form as quickly as a daily might. A reversal could start anytime with the daily and weekly cycles so toppy, but until price starts actually pulling back, the bulls get the benefit of the doubt.

Linda Piazza : 7/28/2005 3:33:02 PM

The OEX's upside target has now risen to 579.09 on the 15-minute Keltner chart, an upside target that merges with the target on a fitted retracement bracket, but its upward progress is still labored. Of course, if you're long from the first 15-minute close of 576.27, you're still up for the day, but maybe not by much, especially after commissions. I didn't recommend this play and if the OEX should reach 579 this afternoon, it will certainly look as if I should have done so, but so far, I'm not regretting that decision.

Linda Piazza : 7/28/2005 3:29:14 PM

RUT still climbing, still inside its rising regression channel off the April low. This thing has not broken out of that channel that whole time and certainly should be due for a pullback sometime or another, but ti hasn't shown the slightest sign of doing that yet.

Linda Piazza : 7/28/2005 3:26:36 PM

The TRAN has exceeded the 7/21 high of 3817.39 by a little more than four points. It's 12/26/04 high was 3823.96, also in this area, but it had a 3/06/05 March high of 3889.97.

Jeff Bailey : 7/28/2005 3:13:54 PM

03:00 Internals found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 7/28/2005 3:13:28 PM

The OEX is coming back once again to test its breakout level on the 15-minute chart.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/28/2005 3:12:38 PM

QQQQ is back to net unchanged from its 8:31AM levels. QQV currently +.06 at 12.19, TRINQ 1.11.

Linda Piazza : 7/28/2005 3:12:18 PM

I'm glad my granddaughter isn't in the hospital today. Her specialized children's hospital which she visits quite often is in Fort Worth, the site of that chemical fire mentioned on CNBC. It's being covered extensively on our local news stations here in Dallas, but I don't have much information yet.

Linda Piazza : 7/28/2005 3:10:20 PM

The BIX is falling back to 363.35-ish support. May bounce into a right shoulder for a H&S formation, but so far, it can't maintain values above the 15-minute 100/130-ema's.

Jeff Bailey : 7/28/2005 3:09:23 PM

Union Pacific (UNP) $70.25 +1.66% ... we did sell 1/2 of our bullish call position at these levels.

Jeff Bailey : 7/28/2005 3:08:39 PM

Dow Transport (TRAN) alert 3,816.85 +1.46% ... edging above its 3,787-3,816 "zone of resistance"

Jonathan Levinson : 7/28/2005 3:06:23 PM

Negative volume rising, with QQQQ breaking 72 SMA support for the 3rd time today.

Linda Piazza : 7/28/2005 3:06:10 PM

At least temporarily, the SOX is again turning down from the top of the consolidation zone from the last few days, but it hasn't yet violated the rising trendline off this morning's low.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/28/2005 3:05:00 PM

QQQQ's just inching its way up along the 72 SMA, and volume has yet to reach 2/3 of yesterday's below-average total. Nothing has changed- volatility plumbing new lows, divergences and "imminent" sell signals galore, low volume, low equity put-to-call matched by high index put-to-call readings. I suppose that this all consitutes a bullish wall-of-worry- index prices have been going up, not down, on just these readings.

Linda Piazza : 7/28/2005 3:03:51 PM

Wilshire 5000 testing the top of the two-hour Keltner channels now, actually touching that channel line for first time today. It usually doesn't stay near that channel line for more than a couple of two-hour candles, as I mentioned earlier, and it's also approached one approximate fitted Fib bracket target at 12,465, with a high of 12,450.65. Watching to see if the advdec line keeps climbing toward 3000 (maybe the 12,465 target would be met) or soon drops below 1922 (maybe it's hit or is close to its top) for guidance, but remember that this is all guesswork. Advdec line at 2174 as I type.

Jeff Bailey : 7/28/2005 3:02:25 PM

03:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 7/28/2005 2:58:24 PM

For those not watching both sides of the Monitor, the VIX is rising, and rising well above an MA that had been pressuring it lower since Tuesday afternoon.

Jeff Bailey : 7/28/2005 2:55:54 PM

All equity sectors now in the green for the U.S. Market Watch.

Linda Piazza : 7/28/2005 2:55:39 PM

The BIX still can't stay above those 15-minute 100/130-ema's, and now has a potential H&S on its five-minute chart. It's still challenging those averages, though.

Jeff Bailey : 7/28/2005 2:55:11 PM

S&P 100 Index (OEX.X) 578.01 +0.50% ... breaks above DAILY R2 here. WEEKLY R2/MONTHLY R2 correlations just ahead.

Linda Piazza : 7/28/2005 2:54:59 PM

RLX still headed up, at 488.65 as I type, and with the top of the broadening formation at just under 490.

Linda Piazza : 7/28/2005 2:54:03 PM

I bet there's a push to close the Nasdaq over 2200. Would think that the SOX would have to participate a bit more.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/28/2005 2:52:08 PM

And price is bouncing to join it. The short cycle downphase for QQQQ is stalling here, another one that got zero downside traction.

Linda Piazza : 7/28/2005 2:51:43 PM

A fitted retracement bracket on the OEX's climb makes the upside 15-minute Keltner target look possible, and a climb to or slightly above 579 not look impossible itself.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/28/2005 2:50:22 PM

Volume breadth has firmed to +1.43:1 on the Nasdaq, +2.84:1.

Linda Piazza : 7/28/2005 2:50:30 PM

SOX coming up for a test of the top of its consolidation zone since midday yesterday, with the SOX at 474.37 and the top of that zone at about 475.03. A descending trendline off the 7/22 high now crosses just above 476, so that should be watched as well as 477-477.50.

Jeff Bailey : 7/28/2005 2:49:59 PM

Bullish swing trade round up to 3/4 position alert ... taking addional 1/4 bullish in shares of Cisco Systems (CSCO) $19.23 +0.26% here.

Linda Piazza : 7/28/2005 2:47:56 PM

That fitted retracement bracket I have for the Wilshire 5000 with an upside target of 12,465 still fits fairly well, with the DWC now consolidating on what would be 19.1% retracement of that upside target. However, a bracket with the current level as the top also still fits fairly well, and the Keltner two-hour target is between the two. So, it's possible that anywhere from the current level to 12,465 would top out this latest DWC move over the short-term, but I'm watching the advdec line, too. Perhaps if it soon drops below 1900 or so, we'll have one answer, but if it truly is headed up toward 3000, we'll know to look for a DWC move up toward 12,465 perhaps. This is all just approximate stuff and testing, so don't take it as gospel.

Linda Piazza : 7/28/2005 2:41:38 PM

I agree with Mark's just-made observation that not everything is just as it should be today in . . . well, ducky-wucky Mudville today.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/28/2005 2:41:08 PM

The longer intraday oscillators are barely oscillating at this point, the 30 min pointed south near the top of its range, the 60 min pointed up near the top of its range, neither moving at this point. Volume is running much lower than it did yesterday, and the market seems to be on hold for the full slate of economic data due out tomorrow at 8:30.

Linda Piazza : 7/28/2005 2:38:57 PM

Just benchmarking impressions: Here's where the Keltner channels show that the advdec line may be going--the top line--if it doesn't fall back beneath the black channel line again. Link

Linda Piazza : 7/28/2005 2:36:22 PM

Watch the Wilshire if it gets near 12,442-12,465. The first of those is current two-hour Keltner resistance (on two-hour closes), and the second is a fitted Fib bracket target that I noted as a possibility, although my efforts might not be correct on fitting the bracket. There were a couple of possible interpretations. In order words, the Wilshire 5000 looks near a top on the short-term (not sure about over the longer term, because the daily Keltner chart shows another 100 points of upside). I based the Fib calculation on the fact that those kinds of formations such as the one we had this morning, the coiling one, tend to come about halfway through a move.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/28/2005 2:31:46 PM

Stepping away for a minute.

Jeff Bailey : 7/28/2005 2:29:53 PM

Coca Cola (KO) alert $44.52 +1.18% ... retraces 80.9% of recent May-July decline.

Linda Piazza : 7/28/2005 2:27:03 PM

TRAN sitting at 3804.66, which is almost exactly at the 161.8% Fib level snapped off the first 15-minute candle this morning. Several 15-minute candles have been finding support there since the TRAN eased off its new HOD.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/28/2005 2:25:32 PM

Volume breadth +1.14:1 as QQQQ tests the 72 SMA support line. That line has broken twice today, but reversed within 25 minutes this morning at 10:30, and after 15 minutes at 11:30AM. Bears need to see a break of 39.70, now the 60 min channel bottom, to suggest that a dip from here will be more significant.

Linda Piazza : 7/28/2005 2:23:52 PM

Wilshire 5000 pulling back, but on the 15-minute chart, at least, its pullback still looks bull flag-ish. Bears want a steeper decline.

Linda Piazza : 7/28/2005 2:22:56 PM

OEX coming down once again to test the breakout level. Bulls want 15-minute closes above 577.05. The OEX is at 577.17 as I type.

Jeff Bailey : 7/28/2005 2:19:54 PM

Hanover Compressor (HC) $14.09 +9.71% ... finds a bid above overlapping retracement.

Jeff Bailey : 7/28/2005 2:17:22 PM

Bullish swing trade call raise stop alert .... let's establish a bullish stop on the remaining 1/2 bullish Union Pacific UNP Nov $70 Calls (UNP-KN) with a stop should the underlying stock trade $64.00.

Linda Piazza : 7/28/2005 2:16:37 PM

RLX at 488.41. See my 1:16 post for a chart.

Linda Piazza : 7/28/2005 2:15:52 PM

OEX still maintaining its breakout signal. It's inching up, but oh-so-slowly. The formation today still looks like a bearish rising wedge, but if it takes off the upside in the last hours of trading, it won't and these things have broken to the upside as often as not lately, it seems. Bulls don't want to see a 15-minute close beneath a Keltner line currently at 577.10, though.

Linda Piazza : 7/28/2005 2:14:16 PM

SOX still climbing in a bear-flag looking climb off this morning's low, but it's near another challenge of the top of the consolidation pattern in which it's been trading the last couple of days, with that at 475.03 and the SOX at 474.05.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/28/2005 2:13:34 PM

The short cycle indicators curled over on the drop from 39.92, and they have yet to turn up. Bears have a 3 cent cushion to 39.91 before that narrow declining channel stalls. A lower high would confirm a new short cycle downphase, but even as I type, price is 1 cent away from stalling the rollover attempt. Link

Linda Piazza : 7/28/2005 2:12:50 PM

BIX pulling back below the 15-minute 100/130-ema's. Pullback so far looks corrective, but bulls don't want to see it drop back below the 50% retracement of the decline into yesterday's low, at 365.35 or especially back below the 200-sma. The BIX is at 365.72 as I type.

Linda Piazza : 7/28/2005 2:11:32 PM

This morning when I said that I thought the Wilshire 5000 might coil near the high of the day, I was right. Later I said that such coils usually break to the upside, and I was right. I said I just wasn't sure that would happen this time because of some other action going on, and I should have been more certain! Now I'm not sure whether to go with the evidence of the two-hour Keltner chart that suggests that a pullback might be needed over the next couple of two-hour bars (unless there's a Keltner breakout on that chart) or one version of a fitted Fib bracket on the climb off yesterday's low that suggests that it might top out at 12,465 or so. Another version suggests the current level as a topping level. Either way, those number suggest that the Keltner target/resistance might be close to being right.

Jeff Bailey : 7/28/2005 2:10:33 PM

02:00 Internals found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 7/28/2005 2:04:15 PM

TRAN hasn't quite made it up to the 7/21 top yet. It's coming down to retest 3800 as I type, at 3804.99. Far from confirmation of a double-top formation as yet.

Jeff Bailey : 7/28/2005 2:03:16 PM

02:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 7/28/2005 2:02:28 PM

QQQQ is back to 39.86, 4 cents above its premarket high and the current 72 SMA support line.

Linda Piazza : 7/28/2005 2:02:14 PM

OEX still maintaining its breakout signal, but still only barely, and coming down right now to test it. The OEX's climb today is now taking on a bit of a (bearish) rising wedge look, with those kinds of climbs not considered as sustainable, but nevertheless sustaining themselves quite well in recent years and even breaking to the upside quite regularly. Watch the 576.96 level on 15-minute closes, though, as bulls don't want to see the OEX move below that on those closes.

Linda Piazza : 7/28/2005 2:00:04 PM

BIX not able to push above those 15-minute 100/130-ema's. Still testing them, at 365.77 and 366.04, respectively, with the BIX at 365.90.

Linda Piazza : 7/28/2005 1:56:54 PM

SOX so far pausing at the top of the consolidation pattern from the last few days. So far.

Linda Piazza : 7/28/2005 1:56:06 PM

The Wilshire 5000 has today broken to the upside out of a rising regression channel that had been containing it since 7/11 after it steadied off since the climb off 7/07. It's testing 2-hour Keltner resistance as I type, looking as if it's soon time to turn down toward support again, but certainly not looking yet as if it's done anything to change its upward trend. There's bearish price/oscillator divergence on some charts, but that hasn't changed this move higher. Link Unless there's a breakout here, though, this chart does suggest that pullback over the short-term to be expected sometime in the next two or three two-hour bars. The DWC has typically pulled back fairly soon after testing or touching this Keltner line. Who knows. Maybe there's going to be a wild breakout much higher, but that wouldn't be the first guess from this chart.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/28/2005 1:50:41 PM

A quick look at the Nasdaq's weekly chart, with the 10 week stochastic at levels not seen since Dec. 2004. But, until it turns down, this month has delivered a trend that continues to rise, and so the burden of proof remains on the bears until a price decline can generate the first sell signals. It might not be far from here, but it hasn't occurred yet. Link

Linda Piazza : 7/28/2005 1:48:33 PM

SOX approaching the top of the consolidation zone in which it's traded since about midday yesterday, with the top of that zone at about 475.03 and the SOX at 474.37. SOX 476 has become important to watch now, as well as 477, because of some converging trendlines now at 476.

Linda Piazza : 7/28/2005 1:45:57 PM

The BIX is still testing those 15-minute 100/130-ema's, at 365.76 and 366.04, with the BIX at 366.00. The BIX's climb still looks corrective, like a bear flag, but it's retraced a little more of the descent than bear flags should, so it's a little dicey as to whether that's still what it is or not. This test of the 15-minute 100/130-ema's should tell us more, as another downturn through the 100-sma and through the 50% retracement of the decline, at 365.35, and especially below the 200-sma would tell us that the flag's support was failing. The 200-sma is at 364.59.

Jeff Bailey : 7/28/2005 1:41:23 PM

Swing trade sell 1/2 bullish call alert let's sell one (1) of the Union Pacific UNP Jan 70 Calls (UNP-KN) at the bid of $3.30.

UNP $70.21 +1.60% here.

Linda Piazza : 7/28/2005 1:41:09 PM

RLX above 488, at 488.46, with a test of its broadening formation top coming just under 490, and with that test important for OEX traders, I think.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/28/2005 1:39:45 PM

Volume breadth +2.76:1 on the NYSE, 1.51:1 on the Nasdaq as the indices print new highs. TNX continues to test 4.2% support. VXO 9.64, QQV 11.97.

Linda Piazza : 7/28/2005 1:36:47 PM

The DJUSHB is currently invalidating a H&S on its 60-minute chart. If it were quickly slapped back, that formation is perhaps not invalidated, but it would take a quick slap back. It's at 1109.21 as I type. Serves as a warning for other bears who are assuming that some of these H&S's on other indices will absolutely confirm.

Jeff Bailey : 7/28/2005 1:36:12 PM

Union Pacific (UNP) $70.25 +1.66% ... notable 52-weeker at the big board.

Linda Piazza : 7/28/2005 1:32:09 PM

As I thought it might do, the SOX is rising again, but we'll see what it does with 474-475.

Linda Piazza : 7/28/2005 1:29:42 PM

OEX still maintaining its breakout on the 15-minute Keltner channel, with an upside target of 578.82, but with the likelihood of meeting that target unclear.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/28/2005 1:28:56 PM

QQQQ is back to session highs, the pathetic short cycle downphase turning back up within the flattened 30 and 60 min channels. Resistance is at 39.93, 5 cents below daily R1, while support remains at 39.80, also the 72 SMA now, followed by 39.70. Link

Linda Piazza : 7/28/2005 1:24:11 PM

I said a while ago that I thought the SOX's right shoulder on is smallest H&S was extending sideways too far in time, so that the formation was fizzling out. That formation may be settling into a diamond shape now, with those usually considered bearish, but I wouldn't be surprised to see an upside resolution instead, up toward 475 or even 477.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/28/2005 1:22:43 PM

Ten year note yields (TNX) test 4.2% support here, -6.1 bps.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/28/2005 1:21:42 PM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- The U.S. House of Representatives overwhelmingly passed a massive energy bill on Thursday in a vote of 275-156, ending a congressional stalemate that has lasted more than four years. The bill provides tax credits worth nearly $14.6 billion that encourage oil, natural gas, coal, electricity, and renewable energy energy companies to expand production of traditional and cleaner energy sources. The legislation would also increase energy efficiency standards for an array of commercial and consumer products. The Senate plans to hold a final vote on the bill Friday. The legislation is a top domestic priority for President Bush, who hopes to sign an energy bill into law before the start of Congress's month-long August recess.

Jeff Bailey : 7/28/2005 1:20:45 PM

Dow Transports (TRAN) 3,805 +1.14% Link ... session highs.

Linda Piazza : 7/28/2005 1:20:36 PM

Benchmarking impressions: advdec line attempting another breakout, but since the advdec line has lately adhered fairly well to the outside channel boundaries, there's a possibility that the climb in the advdec line is becoming extended. If it does push much higher, though, we might be headed toward one of those extreme days when the advdec line pushes up toward 3,000, 2964, specifically according to the 15-minute chart. I wouldn't think that would be the more likely event, but I haven't watched this long enough to be certain of any observation. Don't trade on these observations or make any kind of trading decision, as I'm just benchmarking them so we can all decide together if it's helpful.

Jeff Bailey : 7/28/2005 1:19:06 PM

Union Pacific (UNP) alert $69.99 +1.28% ... intra-day "burst of volume" from 12:55-01:00 of 152,100 shares from $69.97-$70.01.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/28/2005 1:17:48 PM

Session high for ten year notes at 111 33/64, TNX -5.2 bps at 4.209%.

Linda Piazza : 7/28/2005 1:16:41 PM

Here's the RLX's broadening formation that I've been watching. Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/28/2005 1:15:25 PM

FoxHollow Tech (FOXH) $53.85 +23.53% Link ... medical device maker, which I don't believe I have ever heard of, surging after reporting strong Q2 results. Story at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 7/28/2005 1:12:18 PM

Volume breadth has strengthened on the NYSE, up to +2.17:1 here, while still neutral-positive for the Nasdaq at +1.22:1. TRIN 1.05, TRINQ 1.08, VXO 9.73, VXN 12.66.

Linda Piazza : 7/28/2005 1:12:17 PM

The OEX is producing tiny 15-minute candles right along the breakout signal on its 15-minute chart. Still not a convincing breakout, but it has still climbed nonetheless, even if less than 2 points off its opening level. Call players will not have made much money yet, if any, and that's one reason that I said earlier that risk vs. reward had not suggested that a long play was a good bet. So far, though, it barely, by its fingernails, maintains its breakout signal.

Jeff Bailey : 7/28/2005 1:11:34 PM

01:00 Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/28/2005 1:02:22 PM

01:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 7/28/2005 1:01:12 PM

Benchmarking observations: new breakout in the making for the advdec line? It's possible, although evidence is unclear at the moment, and a breakdown is possible, too. Tightly squeezed against nearest support and nearest resistance, the breakout level.

Linda Piazza : 7/28/2005 12:58:31 PM

The RUT still tests the HOD from earlier, having pushed a few cents above it about an hour ago. It's at 678.02 with the HOD at 678.26.

Linda Piazza : 7/28/2005 12:55:19 PM

TRAN pushing higher, at 3799.72 as I type. Watch the 3817.39 high from 7/21 if the TRAN should successfully negotiate the 3800 level.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/28/2005 12:55:11 PM

Bad news for bears as the short cycle downphase goes net nowhere, failing to capitalize on what appeared to be an imminent synchronous short cycle, 30 and 60 min cycle downphase. At this point, the greater risk appears to be a trending upside move in the intraday cycles- but such would require the 30, 60 min and daily cycles all to kick off upside trending moves. This would be as bullish as it would be rare. A break above 40.00 should be enough to do it, given the current shape of the intraday and daily cycles. Bears need to take out 72 SMA support at 39.78, confirmed with a move below 39.70 to turn the 30 min channel back down. Link

Linda Piazza : 7/28/2005 12:52:46 PM

OEX still maintaining its breakout signal on the 15-minute Keltner chart, with an upside target of 578.76 still in place, but the breakout still tentative at best and so the probability of reaching that upside target hard to measure.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/28/2005 12:51:07 PM

Ten year notes continue their bull run today, with TNX now down 5.7 bps to 4.204% (a 1.34% declien today), engulfing yesterday's green candle and reaching key support.

Jeff Bailey : 7/28/2005 12:47:15 PM

Amazon.com (AMZN) $45.21 +3.55% ... challenges its December relative highs.

Linda Piazza : 7/28/2005 12:46:59 PM

BIX still below the 15-minute 100/130-ema's at 365.77 and 366.05, respectively, at the 50% retracement of its steep decline, and above its 200-sma.

Linda Piazza : 7/28/2005 12:38:54 PM

For what it's worth, the Wilshire 5000 shows bearish price/RSI divergence so far as it makes its second assault on Keltner resistance on the 15-minute chart. That resistance is now at 12,419.78 with the Wilshire 5000 at 12,413.45. So far, tests of that resistance have held, but as long as the DWC produces daily closes above 12,303.29, it might continue to test daily resistance, with the upper target at 12,527.75. So, on the very short-term, the Wilshire 5000 looks as if it might be ready to pull back, barring an upside breakout, but until it drops below 12,300 on a daily close, the long-term trend remains intact.

Jeff Bailey : 7/28/2005 12:38:53 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 7/28/2005 12:33:36 PM

The BIX is still below the 15-minute 100/130-ema's, now retesting that 50% FIB level off its sharp decline into yesterday's low. It's above the 200-sma, and its climb off yesterday's low looks like a bear flag, but it hasn't broken its support.

Linda Piazza : 7/28/2005 12:31:57 PM

That right shoulder for the SOX's smallest H&S, visible on its 15-minute chart, is extended to long sideways, perhaps meaning that the formation is no longer valid or has a lessened chance of confirming. Bears need to get the job done soon if it's going to be. The right shoulder for the larger H&S could be higher, up near 477.

Jeff Bailey : 7/28/2005 12:31:35 PM

Aetna (AET) $77.48 +3.83% Link ... Health insurer getting a bounce after reporting quarterly net income of $409.7 million, or $1.35 per share, which was up from $286.3 million, or $0.90 per share a year ago.

Excluding a benefit for reserves set aside for medical costs, the company said it earned $1.08, which matched Wall Street's estimates.

AET affirmed its 2005 forecast of $4.52-$4.57 per share.

The company said membership rose 7.5% to 14.4 million in the recently completed quarter.

Linda Piazza : 7/28/2005 12:30:20 PM

The OEX threatens again to erase its breakout signal on the 15-minute chart. It's climbing today and may even eventually reach that 578.79 upside target, but it's doing it in a laborious way, dragging Keltner lines along with it, so that the signal never can be completely trusted. It breaks out, then moves back within the channel again, breaks out and repeats the performance. It looks to be closing the current 15-minute period right on the Keltner line currently at 576.65, so maintaining the breakout signal, but only by a few cents.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/28/2005 12:29:39 PM

QQQQ dips back to its pre-11:40AM range below 39.80 as the short cycle indicators print a bearish cross from overbought territory. Volume is still light, 35.9M QQQQs traded so far, with breadth +1.19:1 on the Nasdaq. The 30 min cycle never lost its rollover on the surge to the session highs, and the 60 min cycle indicator continues to creep sideways-higher toward overbought territory. What appears most bullish to me is the lack of imbalance- volume breadth has yet to exceed 2.0:1 since yesterday morning. I'd expect a terminal blowoff to mark an important high, but there's been nothing like that this week.

Linda Piazza : 7/28/2005 12:20:08 PM

Stepping away for a few minutes.

Benchmarking observations: the advdec line is a hitting short-term extreme levels according to the five-minute Keltner channels. DO NOT trade on this information as we're just watching, and movements of the advdec line might not have immediate effects on indices anyway.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/28/2005 12:14:28 PM

Sept. crude oil +.10 at 59.20 here, edging lower off a high of 59.65 this morning: Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/28/2005 12:17:31 PM

Silicon Valley Bancshares (SIVB) $52.00 +0.95% Link ... notable new 52-weeker at the NASDAQ. X gets the square.

Jeff Bailey : 7/28/2005 12:10:37 PM

12:00 Internals found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 7/28/2005 12:10:00 PM

SOX dropping again, but I'm not sure the advdec line is through pushing higher.

Linda Piazza : 7/28/2005 12:07:27 PM

TRAN pausing at triple top levels (Tuesday's HOD, this morning's first HOD and the current test of 3790). It's possible to scan this formation and see a potential inverse H&S (continuation form) or even perhaps a cup-and-handle formation. A push above 3800 would soon face the 3817.39 high from 7/21.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/28/2005 12:05:58 PM

Volume breadth positive but nowhere near extreme, +1.9:1 on the NYSE and +1.2:1 on the Nasdaq.

Linda Piazza : 7/28/2005 12:04:45 PM

SOX's pattern still fits with a potential H&S on both the 15-minute and 60-minute charts.

Linda Piazza : 7/28/2005 12:04:23 PM

Benchmarking observations: Top of the advdec line's five-minute channel now at 1625.75, with the advdec line at 1424 as I type. It's possible that the bounce may be nearing a short-term exhaustion point.

Linda Piazza : 7/28/2005 12:02:51 PM

The BIX did manage to punch above a 50% retracement of the decline off Tuesday's last 15-minute high and the decline into yesterday's low. It's consolidating between the 50% and 61.8% retracement. It's climb looks somewhat bear flag-ish. This consolidation also takes place beneath the 15-minute 100/130-ema's, at 363.79 and 366.09, so they can perhaps be used as benchmarks for how bullish/bearish the BIX's action is today. It's at 365.50 as I type.

Jeff Bailey : 7/28/2005 12:02:32 PM

12:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 7/28/2005 11:59:49 AM

The Wilshire 5000 this morning hit the top of its 15-minute Keltner channel boundary and now rises toward that rising boundary line again, with the top boundary now at 12,417.92. The DWC honored that resistance on the first test. It's at 12,410.56 as I type. The top of the DWC's rising regression channel is nearer 12,430-12,435, however.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/28/2005 11:56:54 AM

The short cycle indicators are showing a slight bearish divergence against the most recent QQQQ high, but bears need a break below 39.80 at minimum confirmed by a cross below the 39.75 72-SMA support: Link

Linda Piazza : 7/28/2005 11:56:22 AM

The top of the RLX's broadening formation has now risen to just under 490. The RLX is at 487.65, with a HOD of 467.99.

Linda Piazza : 7/28/2005 11:55:09 AM

SOX still within the appropriate right-shoulder area for both the smaller H&S visible on its 15-minute chart and the bigger one on its 60-minute chart. I wouldn't be surprised to see the smaller one invalidated. There's certainly been an effort to do so, twice this morning. So far, though, all is in keeping with a H&S formation.

Jeff Bailey : 7/28/2005 11:53:41 AM

Union Pacific (UNP) here's Dorsey's PnF chart at this Link and this chart looks accurate with my bar chart data (Dorsey doesn't adjust a stock's supply/demand for dividends) and here is StockCharts' PnF chart at this Link

Linda Piazza : 7/28/2005 11:51:48 AM

Just benchmarking observations: Advdec at 1436. Watch if it gets to 1616 level for a potential slowing in the bounce as that's the outside channel boundary.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/28/2005 11:50:13 AM

VXO 9.54, VXN 12.61.

Linda Piazza : 7/28/2005 11:49:24 AM

New breakout signal on the OEX's 15-minute chart. Target set at 578.73. I honestly don't know whether to trust this one or not, and the OEX comes right back down to retest the signal line, at 576.51, with the OEX currently at 576.68. If bears don't reverse it soon, I'd say that bulls are gaining the upper hand on the OEX, but I'd sure protect my profits, and I won't be joining bulls in a bullish play here.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/28/2005 11:48:46 AM

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Morgan Stanley (MWD) is cutting about 10% of its brokerage staff, or about 1,000 people, eliminating its lowest-producing members over the next few months, according to published reports. Dow Jones Newswires reported Thursday that the news reached staff via a memo from the firm's acting president Zoe Cruz. According to the report, the memo also said that the company would eliminate its broker training program.

Jeff Bailey : 7/28/2005 11:47:37 AM

Union Pacific (UNP) $69.90 +1.15% ... busting a move higher. Updating my bar chart with a bullish fit 38.2% should highs of $70.19 be taken out to the upside at this Link

Linda Piazza : 7/28/2005 11:46:36 AM

No new HOD for the RUT yet.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/28/2005 11:45:08 AM

Volume breadth +1.93:1 on the NYSE, +1.23:1 on the Nasdaq as QQQQ clears the session highs on a small burst of volume. Channel resistance edges up to 39.92-.93: Link

Linda Piazza : 7/28/2005 11:43:28 AM

RLX at a new HOD.

Linda Piazza : 7/28/2005 11:43:04 AM

Wilshire 5000 at a new high.

Linda Piazza : 7/28/2005 11:42:39 AM

As I warned it might do, the SOX is bouncing again, rather than confirming its H&S. Still within a right-shoulder level on both the smaller formation and the larger one displayed earlier.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/28/2005 11:41:08 AM

Session highs across the board, QQQQ at 39.82, testing the premarket highs.

Linda Piazza : 7/28/2005 11:39:10 AM

OEX still below the breakout level on its 15-minute chart, but still nudging it higher. It's at 576.28 on a 15-minute closing basis, with the OEX at 575.73 as I type. The RLX still coils at the top of its day's range, refusing to confirm a double-top on the five-minute chart, the Wilshire 5000 coils below its new high, the BIX coils along or just above its 200-sma, and the TRAN is charging higher as I type. A mixture of evidence as yet.

Linda Piazza : 7/28/2005 11:33:10 AM

Just benchmarking observations: The advdec line's Keltner chart had suggested some sideways movements, and that's what's happened, but now the line moves up into next resistance, near 1180, with next resistance and the breakout level at 1560. Short-term bulls should be watchful if that 1560 level is hit, but should be watchful in case of a downturn now, too.

Linda Piazza : 7/28/2005 11:30:29 AM

The OEX's pattern on the 15-minute chart now looks like a diamond to me. These are usually bearish formations, or in the long-ago past when some of the market gurus wrote their technical analysis books, they were, but they just haven't been reliably so lately.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/28/2005 11:29:50 AM

Comparison of QQQQ (above, 100-tick basis) and the SOX (3 min candles), showing relative weakness of the SOX. QQQQ is holding at yesterday afternoon's highs as the 60 min channel continues to ease its ascent, volume breadth flat at +1.01:1 on the Nasdaq. Link

Linda Piazza : 7/28/2005 11:29:00 AM

SOX dropping down toward the confirmation level of its smaller H&S. See my 11:08 post for a chart. That's at about 470.80. However, with a FIB level off the SOX's decline into yesterday at about 470.44, I'd be prepared for a possible bounce attempt right after confirming the H&S, if that confirmation should happen. Remember that many H&S's have seen a strong bounce begin at the neckline or just after confirmation, with those formations being eventually invalidated, so be careful of assumptions here.

Jeff Bailey : 7/28/2005 11:30:37 AM

Swing trade bullish call alert taking three (3) Wellpoint WLP Sep $72.50 Calls (WLP-IV) at the offer of $1.05.

WLP $69.24 +3.20% Link here.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/28/2005 11:24:58 AM

Session high for Sept. gold futures at 428. +3.20, ditto swiss francs at .7792 and euros at 1.2145.

Linda Piazza : 7/28/2005 11:24:33 AM

RLX is not confirming its potential double-top formation, but remains below the now-489.20-ish top of its broadening formation and, so far, beneath the current HOD. It's at 486.74 as I type.

Linda Piazza : 7/28/2005 11:23:21 AM

Wilshire 5000 still coiling. Coiling at the top of a range usually precedes an upside breakout, but I'm not sure in this case.

Linda Piazza : 7/28/2005 11:19:23 AM

The OEX inches higher without creating a new breakout signal on its 15-minute chart. It's just shoving the breakout level higher along with it. That's at 576.25 on a 15-minute close, wiht the OEX at 575.85 as I type.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/28/2005 11:19:11 AM

Stepping away for 5 minutes.

Linda Piazza : 7/28/2005 11:14:33 AM

Just benchmarking obsevations: the advdec line did turn down below the next resistance level and hasn't produced a new breakout level, but evidence is mixed as it looks evenly balanced between support and resistance. Sideways trading? Just a guess, as evidence is less clear inside these channels. It's the boundaries that seem to count the most.

Jeff Bailey : 7/28/2005 11:13:31 AM

11:00 Internals found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 7/28/2005 11:11:19 AM

BIX still finding resistance at the 50% retracement of its decline off Tuesday's last 15-minute high into yesterday's low. It's still mostly finding support at its 200-sma, though, or rather along it, oscillating above and below it. It's coiling, too.

Linda Piazza : 7/28/2005 11:10:08 AM

As I suspected it might do, the Wilshire 5000 may be coiling within today's range.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/28/2005 11:09:48 AM

Session high for GE at 34.92, +.12. NYSE volume breadth is +1.58:1, TRIN 1.1 and VXO 9.77.

Linda Piazza : 7/28/2005 11:08:52 AM

Here's some of what I'm watching on the SOX, with those two H&S's displayed: Link

Linda Piazza : 7/28/2005 11:05:21 AM

RLX turning down a little more. Still far from confirming its double-top formation on a fall through 485.25, with the RLX at 486.34 as I type.

Jeff Bailey : 7/28/2005 11:04:51 AM

11:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 7/28/2005 11:04:33 AM

No new breakout signal on the OEX's 15-minute chart, but it's not giving up, still near the 576.16 breakout level (on 15-minute closes). Turning down a little again as I type, though.

Linda Piazza : 7/28/2005 11:01:45 AM

The RUT filled this morning's gap, but then bounced back above it again. It's testing a 38.2% retracement of the day's range, with the RUT at 675.63 as I type.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/28/2005 11:01:37 AM

The 30 min cycle indicators have rolled over from the most overbought readings in 3 weeks, while the 60 min oscillators are entering overbought territory now, still climbing. The cycle channels have risen nominally, to 39.90. Below the session low at 39.63 is the daily pivot at 39.60, below which both longer intraday cycles should get in gear to the downside. My guess is that the current sideways drift higher is the weightless area within the topping 60 min cycle- but if that is valid, the current highs should not be violated again, and if so, by no more than a move to the channel top.

Linda Piazza : 7/28/2005 10:59:23 AM

RLX still turning down in accordance with a possible double-top formation, but I'm still watching carefully, as it's far from confirming it yet, and this one is sneaky.

Linda Piazza : 7/28/2005 10:58:40 AM

SOX back at 472.43. Hmm. Some bad values, maybe?

Jeff Bailey : 7/28/2005 11:01:48 AM

Wednesday-to-Wednesday Sector Bell Curve comparison at this Link ....

MM Stock Profile Associations .... HC = OILSerivce , UNP = TRANsport/Non-Air, CSCO = COMPuter, KO = FOOD/beverage

Linda Piazza : 7/28/2005 10:56:35 AM

SOX back at 474. If it's going to form a H&S on the 15-minute chart, it needs to flatten sometimes soon, not far above 474, and then roll down. It would probably have to climb higher than 477 to invalidate the formation on its 60-minute chart, though.

Linda Piazza : 7/28/2005 10:55:33 AM

No new HOD yet for the Wilshire 5000. It's zoomed, retraced more than its day's gains, and now has retraced more than 61.8% of the day's range. I still wouldn't be surprised to see it coil for a while, though. It's at 12,386.21, with the day's high at 12,400.04. I must have had a slightly wrong level earlier, because I'd thought it was 12,400.50.

Linda Piazza : 7/28/2005 10:53:19 AM

Just benchmarking observations: advdec line climbing toward that 1020-1150 next resistance level. Bears would like to see it hold, and certainly the breakout level, currently near 1540. Advdec line at 937 as I type.

Linda Piazza : 7/28/2005 10:51:39 AM

The TRAN's climb looks bear flag-ish on the five-minute chart.

Linda Piazza : 7/28/2005 10:51:02 AM

The OEX has been retesting the breakout level on its 15-minute chart, but did not create another breakout signal, closing the last 15-minute period beneath the Keltner line that's currently at 576.13. It seems as if the generals want to take over for some of the former high-fliers here, but so far, no dice. The OEX hasn't given up, though, at 575.91 as I type.

Linda Piazza : 7/28/2005 10:47:40 AM

RLX turning slightly lower from its just-reached-cents-higher new HOD. A decline below 485.25 would confirm a double-top formation on the five-minute chart. The RLX hasn't even begun to drop far enough to do that yet, at 486.86 as I type, but it's something to watch.

Linda Piazza : 7/28/2005 10:45:35 AM

Wilshire 5000 at 12,387.08, perhaps rising into a retest of the 12,400.50 HOD. I wouldn't be surprised to see a coiling action begin here, though. Have to see.

Linda Piazza : 7/28/2005 10:43:30 AM

BIX back above its 200-sma, moving up again into a retest of the 50% retracement of the decline off Tuesday's last 15-minute high into yesterday's low. That's at about 365.35, just above this morning's high. BIX at 365.05 as I type.

Linda Piazza : 7/28/2005 10:42:09 AM

RLX just hit a new HOD. Still below 489-ish zone, though, resistance from the broadening formation.

Linda Piazza : 7/28/2005 10:41:33 AM

Just benchmarking observations: Advdec line did bounce as the Keltner evidence suggested it would. The resistance that bears would most like to have seen hold did not, and so it might bounce up to 1000-1150 or even 1540 if that doesn't hold. Bears want one of those to hold, preferably the lower of the two.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/28/2005 10:41:11 AM

Nasdaq volume breadth flips back to positive, +1.15:1 as QQQQ test the premarket highs, +.09 at 39.81.

Linda Piazza : 7/28/2005 10:39:51 AM

OEX retesting that broadening formation's support as well as a Keltner line currently at 575.12 on the 15-minute chart. Bears would like to see the OEX close this 15-minute period below that Keltner line. It's above it now, at 575.35 as I type, but the 15-minute period is only about halfway completed.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/28/2005 10:39:38 AM

Ten year note yields are down 4.5 bps at 4.216%, engulfing yesterday's bullish engulfing candle. The strength in treasuries is unsurprising today given the Fed's repo add for the day, but bond bears need to be careful in view of the rollover of the daily cycle. While the weekly cycle still points higher, a correction below 4.26% is currently testing rising channel support, and the daily cycle rollover will gain strength below current levels, targeting key 4.2% support. Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/28/2005 10:39:48 AM

Hanover Compressor (HC) $13.95 +7.63% ... trading overlapping retracement ($13.96-$13.97) here.

Linda Piazza : 7/28/2005 10:38:41 AM

SOX bouncing. Watch 472 and 474-ish levels for potential downturns.

Linda Piazza : 7/28/2005 10:38:04 AM

I think the Wilshire 5000 is an index to watch today. It completely erased all today's gains and went red for a moment after having punched to a new high. The Wilshire 5000 keeps giving us potential reversal signals and then barely escaping. It's bouncing again now, but erasing all of a strong early morning gain is not a good thing. I don't think the volume considerations are there to consider this a real key reversal day, even if it does end up in the red, but that doesn't mean that such an ending today would be a good thing. The day is very obviously very far from being over, and the DWC could end up with a big white candle instead of a shooting star. It's back up to the 61.8% retracement of the day's early gains with the 50% waiting above.

Linda Piazza : 7/28/2005 10:33:57 AM

As the RLX (and advdec line) attempt bounces, the OEX may be expected to come up and retest the bottom trendline of that broadening formation on the five-minute chart, with that trendline now at 575.25 or so.

Linda Piazza : 7/28/2005 10:32:50 AM

RLX hasn't given up yet, and I don't completely trust any OEX decline until it does.

Linda Piazza : 7/28/2005 10:32:20 AM

BIX still below 200-sma, trying to pull up above yesterday's low.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/28/2005 10:32:09 AM

Volume breadth remains mixed with +1.32:1 on the NYSE and -1.28:1 on the Nasdaq, the TRIN and TRINQ both above 1 but in neutral territory. Volume is light, as usual, and volatility is low. A short cycle downphase is in progress for QQQQ, on the verge of persuading the toppy 30 min cycle to join in. Bulls need a break above 39.80 to invalidate it.

Linda Piazza : 7/28/2005 10:31:40 AM

Remember, just benchmarking impressions: Advdec line trying to steady at mid-channel support on the five-minute chart. Bears would prefer it be stopped on any bounce in the 490-660-ish levels.

Linda Piazza : 7/28/2005 10:30:08 AM

Okay, if that SOX bounce earlier was not the real right shoulder for the smaller H&S visible on the 15-minute chart, another bounce could begin from this 471-ish level, into a right shoulder that should top out (if it's to confirm) around 474 or so. If that bounce was the right shoulder, a bounce now might be only up to 472 or so, if it's begun.

Linda Piazza : 7/28/2005 10:28:35 AM

The TRAN is trying (or TRAN investors are trying to keep the TRAN) not to repeat yesterday's complete erasure of all gains. It's currently at a 61.8% retracement of the day's gains, having dipped lower during this 15-minute period but then bounced.

Linda Piazza : 7/28/2005 10:26:38 AM

I don't know how well that little advdec/Keltner watching exercise is going to work out, but I like it so far. It told me yesterday, about 2:23, that the bounce probably wasn't over yet, and at the close, that there might be some carry-through this morning, but that there was danger of a pop-and-drop reaction. That, and other evidence, kept me from trusting that OEX breakout signal. Remember that I'm just benchmarking these advdec/Keltner levels, but what I've liked is that it's told me what target highs and lows should be. Right now, it's telling me that a bounce attempt could be expected from anywhere near the current 127 to -146 levels, but if those fail, -1086 might be next.

Jeff Bailey : 7/28/2005 10:26:30 AM

Current OPEN MM Profiles found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 7/28/2005 10:24:07 AM

RLX dropping a bit more heavily now.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/28/2005 10:23:59 AM

QQQQ update at this Link , with price resting on 39.70 as the short cycle channel rolls over. 30 and 60 min channel support line up at 39.57, but with the oscillators at/near the tops of their ranges, there's room for that level to decline so long as price holds below the 72 SMA.

Linda Piazza : 7/28/2005 10:23:51 AM

The OEX is below that broadening channel's trendline now, but it certainly didn't want to break below it. Next target, the 573.56-574.08 mid-channel S/R on the 15-minute chart, then 571.99 next support if that fails.

Linda Piazza : 7/28/2005 10:22:58 AM

RLX pulling back, but unlike some other indices, it's far from retracing more than 50% of its range for the day. This one is one to watch.

Linda Piazza : 7/28/2005 10:22:03 AM

If the advdec line should rise again, bears want it to be stopped between 950-1480, the lower the better. Remember, this is just benchmarking, not trading advice.

Jeff Bailey : 7/28/2005 10:21:30 AM

Bullish swing trade raise stop alert ... for both the covered calls and underlying stock of Hanover Compressor (HC). Raising stop(s) to $12.35.

Linda Piazza : 7/28/2005 10:21:03 AM

The Wilshire 5000 punched to another new high today, hitting 12,400.50. It's pulled back, at 12369.22, but still above the open and yesterday's close, both. It has, however, erased more than 2/3 of the first tall 15-minute candle's range, with that usually predicting a test of the bottom of the range, or today's open.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/28/2005 10:19:01 AM

Volume breadth has drifted negative on the Nasdaq, now -1.12:1, while still +1.41:1 on the NYSE.

Linda Piazza : 7/28/2005 10:18:55 AM

BIX back below its 200-sma, but hasn't violated yesterday's 363.49 LOD yet, with the BIX at 364.26 as I type.

Linda Piazza : 7/28/2005 10:18:10 AM

OEX new LOD.

Linda Piazza : 7/28/2005 10:17:57 AM

TRAN back testing a 50% retracement of this morning's first 15-minute range, slipping just below it as I type. During the last 15-minute period, the 61.8% retracement held as support, with that at 3771.88 or so, but the TRAN slips just below that as I type, by a few cents.

Linda Piazza : 7/28/2005 10:16:34 AM

The OEX closed the last 15-minute period sitting right on trendline and Keltner first support on the 15-minute chart, giving a mixed picture. Hasn't quite violated the broadening formation's (five-minute chart) support yet.

Jeff Bailey : 7/28/2005 10:15:20 AM

Yesterday's Internals found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 7/28/2005 10:14:36 AM

The RLX's current 15-minute candle is a bearish engulfing one at the top of a strong climb. If the RLX were to turn down at or below 489, that fits with the possibility of a broadening formation on its intraday charts. It would need to be confirmed by a drop through support, just above 479. I'd use 479 as the level to watch. The RLX is obviously far from doing that just yet, at 486.44.

Jeff Bailey : 7/28/2005 10:14:27 AM

10:00 Internals found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 7/28/2005 10:14:19 AM

Session high for ten year notes at 111 25/64 and Aug. gold at 427.50, +2.70. 428-429 is key resistance here, followed by 20-day bollinger resistance at 432.

Linda Piazza : 7/28/2005 10:12:26 AM

I'm not sure whether this morning's last little bounce on the SOX was actually a right-shoulder bounce or whether that was just part of the head formation. Whatever it was, the SOX is now reaching a new day's low. It's possible that it will drop down to 471 or so and then try a right-shoulder bounce again.

Linda Piazza : 7/28/2005 10:11:00 AM

The impression that the advdec line was erasing its breakout signal was correct, and it also failed to hold 1135-ish support on the last five-minute close. I wouldn't be surprised to see another bounce attempt, but it's not showing up now.

Linda Piazza : 7/28/2005 10:09:40 AM

OEX erasing its breakout signal again, although we haven't seen a 15-minute close below the breakout level yet. I really didn't trust that breakout signal and am glad that I warned others not to trust it, either. The OEX now sits on the bottom trendline of a broadening formation visible since about 2:00 yesterday, with the bottom at about 575 and the OEX bouncing a little as I typed, to 575.29. A break through that trendline might suggest that 573.54-574.16 next Keltner resistance will be tested, although officially, it would take a 15-minute close below 575.23.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/28/2005 10:09:16 AM

30 min channel resistance has risen to QQQQ 39.73, below which the short cycle channel should turn town. The 30 min channel is stalled here, but bears need to see a break of at least 39.70 to generate some downticks in that timeframe. Link

Jonathan Levinson : 7/28/2005 10:07:48 AM

Sept. crude has reopened, +.20 at 59.30.

Jeff Bailey : 7/28/2005 10:03:51 AM

10:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 7/28/2005 10:03:21 AM

Session high for ten year notes, with TNX -2.9 bps at 4.232%.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/28/2005 10:02:33 AM

Volume breadth remains positive, but not extremely so, +1.76:1 on the NYSE, +1.37:1 on the Nasdaq. QQQQ is holding below the premarket highs, as is the SOX. But the Qs are above yesterday's high, contrary to the SOX which continues to lag.

Linda Piazza : 7/28/2005 10:02:28 AM

SOX is rising. Watching for that potential H&S on the 15-minute chart, actually part of a right-shoulder formation for a bigger but roughly formed H&S on the 60-minute chart. Watching for a test of the 474-ish zone, to see if the SOX begins to flatten near there and then roll down or if it zomes above 475, invalidating the smaller of the two. It would probably take a climb above 477 or so to invalidate the larger one.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/28/2005 10:01:03 AM



Jonathan Levinson : 7/28/2005 10:00:14 AM

The Fed has announced an 11B 14-day repo to replace 12B expiring, and a subsequent 5.25B overnight repo resulting in a net add of 4.25B for the day.

Jeff Bailey : 7/28/2005 10:00:06 AM

Placer Dome (PDG) $13.41 -9.14% Link ... sharply lower after the metal miner reported a Q2 loss of $7 million, or $-0.01 a share versus a profit of $33 million, or $0.08 a share in the year-ago quarter. The company blamed the loss on higher operating costs, lower copper prices, and hedging losses. Revenue for the three months ended 06/30/05 fell to $460 million from $467 million a year ago. Analysts had expected the company to earn $0.09 a share.

Linda Piazza : 7/28/2005 10:00:02 AM

RLX still climbing, and the OEX is still maintaining its breakout status on the 15-minute Keltner chart, although perhaps not entirely convincingly. RLX at 487.06 and I'm watching as it more closely approaches the top of a possible broadening formation, just over 489. Advdec line retesting its breakout level, holding so far.

Linda Piazza : 7/28/2005 9:58:20 AM

The RUT has erased more than 50% of its first 15-minute range, pausing now at a 61.8% retracement of that first range. The RUT has a gap below today's first 15-minute chanel, and so there could also be gap support to consider, but a close of the second 15-minute period below a 50% retracement, at 676.76 would not be a bullish thing. As I typed, the RUT was bouncing back above that 50% retracement and is now at 676.98.

Linda Piazza : 7/28/2005 9:55:58 AM

BIX still pausing at the 50% retracement of yesterday's decline, still above the 200-sma. Trapped between support and resistance for the time being.

Linda Piazza : 7/28/2005 9:54:54 AM

Advdec line is erasing its breakout signal on the five-minute chart, but there hasn't been a retest yet to see if the resistance holds on another attempted spike higher. DO NOT trust this evidence. I'm just benchmarking what I see.

Jeff Bailey : 7/28/2005 9:55:49 AM

Hanover Compressor (HC) $13.56 +4.62% Link ... sharply higher after the company reported a narrower-then-expected quarterly loss. For Q2 reported a loss of $6.4 million, or $-0.07 per share. Consensus was for a loss of $-0.13 a share.

Linda Piazza : 7/28/2005 9:54:00 AM

The TRAN zoomed up today, all the way to retest of yesterday's soon-reversed spike higher. It's pulling back from that test now. Wow, that's goin to be some chart pattern on the 15-minute chart if it now retraces this morning's first 15-minute spike higher, as it did yesterday's. The TRAN has already retraced about 38.2% of that first 15-minute spike.

Linda Piazza : 7/28/2005 9:51:23 AM

Still watching the SOX for that possible H&S scenario on the 15-minute chart. Remember that the SOX has a bigger possible H&S, a square-headed and roughly shaped one, on the 60-minute chart, and this current possible H&S on the 15-minute chart would be forming the right shoulder of that bigger one. That happens all the time, but neither formation has been confirmed or invalidated.

Jeff Bailey : 7/28/2005 9:50:14 AM

Program Trading Levels for Thursday ... HL Camp & Company has their computers set for program buying at $+3.92 and set for program selling at $+1.30.

Linda Piazza : 7/28/2005 9:49:48 AM

OEX dropping back to test the support level that created the breakout signal, with that at 575.73. As long as the OEX maintains 15-minute closes above 575.19-575.73, it might go on challenging upside resistance, but a 15-minute close below 575.73 puts OEX bulls right back where they've been, with a breakout signal quickly erased. Hasn't happened yet, though.

Linda Piazza : 7/28/2005 9:49:47 AM

OEX dropping back to test the support level that created the breakout signal, with that at 575.73. As long as the OEX maintains 15-minute closes above 575.19-575.73, it might go on challenging upside resistance, but a 15-minute close below 575.73 puts OEX bulls right back where they've been, with a breakout signal quickly erased. Hasn't happened yet, though.

Linda Piazza : 7/28/2005 9:48:20 AM

Advdec line dropping down to retest the breakout level now, with that at 1325.54, with further support in the 1140 and 920-ish regions.

Linda Piazza : 7/28/2005 9:47:32 AM

RLX hesitating at Monday's high. Not pulling back much yet.

Linda Piazza : 7/28/2005 9:46:56 AM

BIX still above its 200-sma, but just now retesting a 50% retracement of the decline off the last 15-minute swing high, late Tuesday. That's at about 363.35, and the BIX is pulling back a little, although only slightly below that.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/28/2005 9:46:24 AM

If the premarket highs don't hold, current 30 and 60 min resistance line up at QQQQ 39.84.

Linda Piazza : 7/28/2005 9:45:56 AM

Breakout signal created on the OEX. It may meet that 578.26 upside target, but I don't trust the signal too much.

Linda Piazza : 7/28/2005 9:44:57 AM

Advdec line still continuing its breakout on the five-minute chart, with no sign of abating yet, so this as-yet-untested-and-not-to-be-trusted sign would be that no imminent pullback is signaled just yet, but that bulls should be careful of such a possibility.

Linda Piazza : 7/28/2005 9:43:48 AM

Unless there's a quick downdraft in the next couple of minutes, it looks as if the OEX will create a new upside target of 578.28 on this 15-minute close. Take that target with a grain of salt, although the OEX has been pent up so long that it might carry through. Be careful if participating in a breakout play to the upside here. The BIX has just moved above its 200-sma, but is already retreating to retest it again.

Linda Piazza : 7/28/2005 9:41:39 AM

SOX still retesting those 15-minute 100/130-ema's, at 472.37 and 471.69, respectively, with the SOX at 471.16. There's the potential for a H&S to form on the SOX's 15-minute chart, head near 475. If so, the SOX might bounce anywhere from here to the 471-ish area, up to the right-shoulder area near 473-474, and then we'll see how it goes from there--invalidation or confirmation. No right-shoulder building has begun yet, though.

Linda Piazza : 7/28/2005 9:39:27 AM

RLX testing Monday's high. I said earlier this morning that I was more on the side of a broadening formation forming on the RLX than of a H&S confirming early in the day. That would mean that the RLX, if it honors such a broadening formation, would turn down near or before 489.02 or so. It's at 485.93, pulling back slightly from the just-hit high.

Linda Piazza : 7/28/2005 9:38:03 AM

The OEX is above the breakout zone on its 15-minute chart, but has not yet completed a 15-minute period.

Linda Piazza : 7/28/2005 9:37:07 AM

Advdec hitting the upside boundary on its 5-minute Keltner chart. Not sure whether this has any validity at all, but there seems to be some validity at the outside boundaries at least, meaning that the advdec line usually doesn't stay too far outside those boundaries for too long, at least in the time I've watched them. It's outside now, creating a firm breakout. Let's watch for the theory that shorts should be careful just yet, but watchful in case this is a pop-and-drop scenario. Don't believe in this scenario based on this flimsy and very little tested evidence, but let's just benchmark to see if there's any validity for the future.

Linda Piazza : 7/28/2005 9:33:37 AM

The OEX has neither confirmed nor invalidated that little H&S visible on the 1-minute chart, although it's about to invalidate it as I type. Just did. Watching now for a 15-minute close above/below the Keltner line currently at 575.52, but bulls sure want to get a firm confirmation of a breakout before they believe in it too strongly.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/28/2005 9:33:32 AM

Volume breadth at the open is +2.14:1 on the NYSE, +1.01:1 on the Nasdaq.

Linda Piazza : 7/28/2005 9:31:48 AM

SOX declines back to the 15-minute 100/130-ema's first thing this morning, instead of continuing up toward 477. I'd love to tell you what the OEX is doing, but my charting service refuses to give me a chart just yet.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/28/2005 9:29:10 AM

Updated QQQQ chart with premarket data, 100-tick basis with automatic linear regression channels at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 7/28/2005 9:27:44 AM

Session high for ten year notes here, with TNX down 2.1 bps at 4.24%.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/28/2005 9:01:38 AM

QQQQ is holding its pre-8:30 gains at 39.80, resting less than 3 pennies below 30 min channel resistance. The 30 min cycle oscillators are extended in overbought territory but show no sign of rollover as price holds in the green. The 60 min cycle is approaching overbought and its slope is weakening, but again no sign of a turn. Meanwhile, the daily cycle stalled at the outset of its downphase. The setup suggests continued strength this morning, so long as price holds above the 72 SMA at 39.70. Below that level, the intraday correction should commence, and its strength or weakness will determine the fate of the stalled daily cycle.

Linda Piazza : 7/28/2005 8:48:20 AM

Yesterday, the OEX again attempted a push above the upper boundary of the 15-minute channel that has been bounding the OEX for more than a week, managing only a tepid break above the boundary line, currently at 575.44 on a 15-minute closing basis. As the OEX was testing that channel line, it was creating a possible H&S, perhaps most visible on the 1-minute chart. That formation on the one-minute chart will give us our first clue this morning. A confirmation of that formation by a fall beneath about 575 will tell us that bears have the upper hand over the very short-term, unless that move is quickly reversed, and an invalidation of the formation by a push above 575.50 or maybe yesterday's high of 575.44 will tell us that bulls have the upper hand over the very short-term, unless the move is quickly reversed. I'm adding those "unless" statements because first moves early in the morning are sometimes suspect. Futures are higher as I type, well above fair values, with some moving up toward a challenge of last week's high. The YM contract is not showing gains of that magnitude, however, or weren't as this report was prepared.

An OEX upside breakout above a Keltner line currently at 575.44 on a 15-minute closing basis sets an upside target of 578.13, but the OEX moves into a strong resistance band on the weekly and daily charts not far above the breakout level, so anyone participating in such an upside breakout play needs to guard profits vigilantly. Based on that long-term resistance and recent OEX actions after attempting breakouts, I'm worried about the possibility of a pop-and-drop morning, and don't personally feel that such a play is a good risk vs. reward one.

The possibility of a rollover through that channel again, down toward bottom support, exists, but there's no real evidence that it's begun yet. We'll have to look for such evidence this morning, although futures' current levels indicate that a rollover won't be the first thing on the agenda, while also keeping an eye on some key indices. The SOX is still challenging the top resistance of a long-term rising regression channel on its weekly chart, with a fitted retracement bracket looking as if the SOX has about met its upside target with last week's high. That's not an exact science, though, but a best guess at where various consolidation patterns are best fitting a Fib bracket. A test of the level near 477, if it occurs this morning, will be important to watch, as several trendlines now converge in that area. The SOX has a possible roughly formed square-headed H&S on its 60-minute chart, at the top of the climb, with the right-shoulder level near 477, the head at last week's high, and the neckline level near yesterday's low. It's a rough formation and may not be particularly valid. The BIX ended up just underneath its 200-sma yesterday, and the BIX's behavior with respect to that average will be important to watch. The RLX has traded sideways out of a steeply rising regression channel that's been in place all month, with a sideways move suspect, but with the move forming a possible H&S. The RLX ended the day at the top of the right-shoulder area, almost up to last week's left-shoulder level at 484.98. A new high for the RLX will invalidate the formation and increase suspicion about that sideways break, while a double-top or broadening formation possibility should be watched. As I was looking at the RLX's chart last night and thinking about its can't-kill-the-rally behavior, I was thinking already that a broadening formation might be more likely than an early confirmation of a H&S, and perhaps the performance of the futures this morning fit that scenario, too, but the possibility of more and more gains must be addressed, too. A rollover down through 479 before a new high would confirm the H&S formation, but I'm kind of voting for the broadening formation instead.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/28/2005 8:31:47 AM

QQQQ +.09 to 39.81 on the news, TNX is down 1 bp at 4.251%- overall, a very tame reaction to the numbers.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/28/2005 8:30:58 AM





Jonathan Levinson : 7/28/2005 8:25:42 AM

Equities have run up to session highs, QQQQ +.08 at 39.80, while bonds have recovered off their lows, ZN now up 1/32 and TNX opening down 1.2 bps at 4.249% as we await the 8:30 release of initial claims.

Jonathan Levinson : 7/28/2005 7:32:25 AM

Equities are up, ES trading 1240.75, NQ 1619, YM 10661 and QQQQ +.02 at 34.74. Gold is up 30 cents to 425.10, silver +.047 to 7.089, ten year notes -3/64 to a session low of 111 7/64, and crude oil is up .225 to 59.325.

We await th e 8:30 release of Initial Claims, est. 320K, and at 10AM, the Help Wanted Index, est. 38.

Linda Piazza : 7/28/2005 7:21:29 AM

Good morning. I've just seen preliminary reports that an earthquake has shaken buildings in Tokyo, but no confirmation of any damage, and this from a source that reports rumors quickly, only to sometimes have them refuted. Earlier, the Nikkei had gained, but had tumbled off its high of the day to close near the low of the day, perhaps ahead of important earnings. Most other Asian markets gained, as do European markets this morning. Our futures trade near the flat-line level. Perhaps of interest to those who read no further than this first summarizing paragraph in the morning, DaimlerChrysler is seeing strong gains this morning in Europe after reporting. As of 7:08 EST, gold was higher by $0.60, and crude, up $0.24 to $59.34. More detail about Asian and European markets follows in succeeding paragraphs.

The Nikkei gapped higher Thursday morning and was soon testing 11,900, but the mid-morning 11,889.86 value was to be the high of the day. The Nikkei lost a hefty proportion of its gains, closing near its low of the day and below its open, up 23.23 points or 0.20%, at 11,858.31. Exporters gained after the durable goods number in the U.S. and our Beige Book report indicated the Fed's belief in a growing economy. Sony gained. Drugmaker Takeda Pharmaceutical Co. also benefited from its announcement that the U.S.'s FDA could speed up the trial of the company's drug to treat sepsis. Fujitsu also beat expectations for quarterly profit for its sales of wireless equipment, and gained as a result, but not all exporters gained. Canon slipped lower Thursday after its after-the-close earnings announcement Wednesday afternoon in Japan. It said that it would likely see a decline in profit due to falling prices for digital cameras and office equipment. Printer manufacturer Seiko Epson also fell after the company lowered its full year profit forecast by 19%, blaming falling prices for inkjet printers and higher expenses to ramp up production. Honda fell after net profit dropped 3.1% for the first quarter, although the company increased its outlook for earnings for the first half ending in September and the year. Investors awaited earnings later, perhaps after the close, as I don't have the exact release time, from consumer electronics manufacturer Matsushita Electric Industrial Co.; Kyocera Corp., manufacturer or ceramic packaging for chips; and Nintendo, handheld game manufacturer. Each is the biggest manufacturer in its field.

Most other Asian markets gained. The Taiwan Weighted gained 0.76%, and South Korea's Kospi climbed 1.07%. Singapore's Straits Times rose 0.54%, and Hong Kong's Hang Seng gained 0.08%. China's Shanghai Composite fell 0.31%.

European markets turn in positive performances this morning, with many economic releases to weigh. In the U.K., the July Nationwide House Price Survey met expectations of a sharp slowdown to a 2.6% rise in the year-over-year gain in prices, although there was a slight 0.2% rise in the month over month figure. June's year-over-year gain had been 4.1%. One source claims that this is the lowest year-over-year rise in more than nine years, but this is countered by other evidence that shows that the housing market may be stabilizing, so that this sharp decline is not seen as increasing fears of a crash in the housing market, at least by one source. Germany's July Unemployment has been restated to show a fall of 42,000 and the rate to have declined to 11.6% from the previous 11.7%. In Italy, June's Producer Prices gained more than expected, with a 0.6% increase over a revised-lower May number. Year over year, the rate has now increased from 3.2% to 3.7%. Other figures show that companies are not able to pass all costs through to consumers. The increase came mainly from energy costs although transport and manufactured goods also jumped. France has apparently also released producer prices that showed some upward pressure from energy costs, but I have not been able to find the exact figures. Sweden's also rose more than expected. Also of economic interest, the controversy over the single currency has not died, but is being revived by Italy's minority party, trying to force a referendum on the single-currency issue. One Italian politician has called the euro a disaster.

Carmakers gained after DaimlerChrysler reported a 28% increase in Q2 profit and a 4% increase in revenue, and also revealed the identity of a new chief executive. Steel manufacturers were benefiting in early trading from Arcelor's earnings report. Alcatel beat expectations and raised its revenue forecast for the year to a 5-8% gain, and had gained 3.7% at one point in early European trading. Other reporting companies gaining after their reports were Royal Dutch Shell, France's alcoholic drinks groups Pernod Ricard and France Telecom. Telecom BT group joined reporting companies that declined after their earnings reports, however, as did German industrial conglomerate Siemens and Deutsche Bank. Drug manufacturer Schering AG noted that another set of negative data on its metastatic colorectal cancer drug PTK/ZK will prompt a review of its filing strategy, and the company's stock fell more than 3% at one point. Novartis, a partner in the drug, also declined, but not as heavily. Other drug manufacturers saw their prices gain in early trading, including AstraZeneca and GlaxoSmithKline, both due to report today.

As of 7:02 EST, the FTSE 100 was up 14.50 points or 0.28%, at 5,278.10. The CAC 40 was higher by 29.23 points or 0.66%, at 4,462.36. The DAX as higher by 25.01 points or 0.52%, at 4,880.36.

Market Monitor Archives