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OI Technical Staff : 8/1/2005 9:59:59 PM

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Jeff Bailey : 8/1/2005 9:14:30 PM

Colombia's July CPI +0.05% vs. economists' forecast (just 4) of +0.09%. The government attributed easing prices to a sharp decline in the food sector, which has a 30% weighting in the country's CPI. In the 12 months through July, Colombia's CPI stood at 4.91%. In the first 7 months of the year, inflation was 3.98%.

Jeff Bailey : 8/1/2005 8:56:56 PM

Pivot Matrix for Tuesday at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/1/2005 8:20:36 PM

Japan's Finance Minister Sadakazu Tanigaki saying end of deflation not in sight yet and that government will continue to make efforts toward beating continued price declines.

Jeff Bailey : 8/1/2005 4:22:52 PM

Closing U.S. Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/1/2005 4:18:09 PM

Closing Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/1/2005 4:07:33 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles found at this Link ... Today's Activity ... Swing trade sold two (2) of the three (3) WellPoint WLP Sep. $72.50 Calls (WLP-IV) for $2.05 ($1.00, or +95.24%). Raised stop on remaining position to $1.25 on these calls.

Jeff Bailey : 8/1/2005 4:00:41 PM

Sell Program Premium ... DIA $106.15, SPY $123.51

Linda Piazza : 8/1/2005 3:59:51 PM

To confuse matters as much as possible, the Wilshire 5000 looks as if it might end the day right on the 15-minute 100-ema. The OEX might end the day near a right-shoulder zone for an inverse H&S on its 15-minute chart or perhaps instead near an equal low. The SOX might end the day above its 10-sma again but below the top resistance of its long-term rising regression channel.

Linda Piazza : 8/1/2005 3:55:20 PM

The SOX's 10-sma is at 473.62, with the SOX at 474.84 as I type. Could be a close one for the SOX, with about five minutes left in the trading day.

Linda Piazza : 8/1/2005 3:54:19 PM

Wilshire 5000 dropping down into another test of the 15-minute 100/130-ema's. More important is the 10-sma at 12,338.45, but the Wilshire 5000 would have to drop hard and fast to close below that today. The Wilshire 5000 is at 12,383.80.

Linda Piazza : 8/1/2005 3:52:48 PM

OEX headed straight down into the right-shoulder area for a possible inverse H&S. There's not really a lot of Keltner support in that right-shoulder area, although some light support at 573.23. Next support below that is that important Keltner support line now at 572.43.

Jeff Bailey : 8/1/2005 3:49:11 PM

WellPoint (WLP) $73.00 +3.19% Link ... "X" gets the square.

Linda Piazza : 8/1/2005 3:47:49 PM

OEX staying near the mid-channel support/resistance area, showing a slight possibility of slipping below Keltner support at 574.11 on the current 15-minute period, but that 15-minute close is still a long way away. There's the potential for an inverse H&S on the OEX's 15-minute chart, with a right shoulder yet to be formed by a pullback, perhaps to 573 or so. A drop below today's low would invalidate the formation. OEX at 574.16 as I type.

Linda Piazza : 8/1/2005 3:45:38 PM

Since last Wednesday, the SOX has mostly stayed between 471.25 and 476. It's had some spikes outside that range, both directions, including Friday's spike higher. Right now, it's testing the top of that range, at 475.23 as I type.

Jeff Bailey : 8/1/2005 3:44:31 PM

TurboChef (OVEN) $18.41 +6.23% Link ... reached an agreement with food-service provider Compass Group to be the provider of speed cook ovens for over 1,400 Eurest Profiles 3 foodservice systems.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/1/2005 3:38:15 PM

The short cycle downphase that launched off the 2:30PM print is roughly halfway to oversold territory, with the 72 SMA up to 39.70 and the 30 min channel bottom at 39.64. Volume breadth has weakened to +1.77:1 on the Nasdaq, with the TRINQ neutral at .86. Below the 30 min channel bottom at 39.64, there's support at 39.60 and .55. Below that, the 30 and 60 min cycles would whipsaw to the downside, but so far, the short cycle hasn't been showing the kind of oomph that would suggest it's going to happen.

Linda Piazza : 8/1/2005 3:38:13 PM

TRAN pulling back a little, but it's far from confirming the double-top (triple?) formation on its 15-minute chart, with a drop below the trough between the two at 3793.15. The important 15-minute 100/130-ema's are at 3793.09 and 3785.99, respectively, so I'd want to see a decline beneath those before I considered the formation confirmed. TRAN at 3811.00 as I type, still close enough to retest that high.

Linda Piazza : 8/1/2005 3:32:50 PM

DJUSHB consolidating beneath the 1100 mark, at 1098.38.

Linda Piazza : 8/1/2005 3:31:14 PM

I frankly can't make heads or tails out of the RLX's consolidation pattern since about midmorning Friday, as seen on the 15-minute chart. It looks like a diamond pattern, but those are usually topping formations, can sometimes but more rarely be bottoming ones, but are rarely at all consolidation patterns. The RLX remains within a broadening formation on its 60-minute chart, neither confirming nor invalidating it yet, so perhaps this is just typical treacherous trading within a broadening formation. I'm watching the RLX for some clue as to OEX direction, too, but it's giving none unless you take a downside breakdown out of a broadening formation on faith, and that's not something I'm going to do in this market.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/1/2005 3:27:35 PM

Session low for Sept. crude in the evening session, down a nickel at 61.525.

Jeff Bailey : 8/1/2005 3:22:10 PM

Overstock.com (OSTK) $43.33 +0.09% Link ... compelling long. Note Dec. $45 Calls (QKT-LI) volume 1,145 and Dec. $45 Put (QKT-XI) 1,110.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/1/2005 3:21:52 PM

Volume breadth is at +2:1 on the Nasdaq, +1.79:1 on the NYSE. Cycle-wise, the 60 min cycle has yet to reach the midpoint of its range, while the 30 min cycle continues to chop higher roughly 3/4 of the way to overbought territory. So far, Friday's high has yet to be touched, and so this still qualifies as a corrective bounce to relieve the oversold intraday condition. But there remain potentially hours left in these upphases, suggesting followthrough tomorrow morning. If the bears can take QQQQQ back below 39.65, these upphases will begin to stall, but above that level, the benefit of the doubt remains with the bulls. Link

Linda Piazza : 8/1/2005 3:21:20 PM

The OEX still oscillates around the Keltner mid-channel resistance line currently at 574.43.

Linda Piazza : 8/1/2005 3:18:55 PM

I just noticed that for the first time since 7/11, the SOX closed a two-hour period below the 240-minute Keltner resistance line currently at 474.94. It's risen to retest that Keltner line currently, with further 15-minute Keltner resistance at 478.32 and 479.93. I'm not sure how much weakness to ascribe to that close beneath that line, however, as the SOX traded sideways through a still-rising line. This test of the resistance may tell us something about that. Two-hour support is thinning beneath the SOX.

Jeff Bailey : 8/1/2005 3:18:03 PM

eBay (EBAY) $43.92 +5.09% ... challenges session high. 60-minute chart shows stock breaking strongly high from intra-day pennant.

Linda Piazza : 8/1/2005 3:15:30 PM

SOX coming up again to retest five-minute Keltner resistance, currently at 475.32 on five-minute closes. The SOX bumped a little above that on the last test. If Keltner-style bearish divergence is to occur now, the SOX could send candle shadows above that Keltner line, but really shouldn't close five-minute candles above it, or not by much. Maybe a few pennies since this is the SOX we're talking about.

Linda Piazza : 8/1/2005 3:09:44 PM

The OEX is slipping beneath Keltner mid-channel resistance, but hasn't moved back below 573.96 on a 15-minute closing basis. Until then, it might be expected to go on challenging resistance.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/1/2005 3:09:29 PM

Ten year note yields finished higher by 3.3 bps at 4.319%.

Linda Piazza : 8/1/2005 3:08:28 PM

Makes me nervous when someone on CNBC (Ned Riley) says, "We know that game. It doesn't work that way any more." I used to hear things a lot like that in February and March 2000. The discussion concerned inflation and yields and the direction of the markets. Markets always eventually work the way they always have.

Jeff Bailey : 8/1/2005 3:07:57 PM

03:00 Internals found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 8/1/2005 3:04:28 PM

QQQQ is bouncing from a doji low at 39.70 on this most recent pullback, returning to the 39.76 confluence. The short cycle rolled over at the last high, but price has yet to test the 72 SMA, lined up with the daily pivot at 38.67. Link

Jonathan Levinson : 8/1/2005 3:03:04 PM

That looks like bullish news to me.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/1/2005 3:02:40 PM

Headlines:

TREASURY SEES $97 BILLION BORROWING IN 4Q

U.S. BORROWING TO BE LOWEST 3Q TOTAL SINCE 2000

TREASURY BORROWING $31 BILLION BELOW MAY ESTIMATE

Jeff Bailey : 8/1/2005 3:02:18 PM

03:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 8/1/2005 3:02:13 PM

Headlines:

WARSHAWSKY: CONSUMER SPENDING TO BOLSTER ECONOMY

TREASURY'S WARSHAWSKY: STAGE SET FOR FASTER GROWTH

Linda Piazza : 8/1/2005 2:56:33 PM

The OEX is pausing right at mid-channel resistance on its 15-minute chart, with the top of the next channel currently at 576.08. It hasn't set a signal yet for a move up to that level, and is forming small-bodied candles right along the signal line, so not giving any kind of signal, either for up or down. That last move higher looked like a classic stop-run move to me, but it's not getting slapped back quickly yet.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/1/2005 2:49:36 PM

Recovering from a system freeze and reboot- back shortly.

Jeff Bailey : 8/1/2005 2:49:47 PM

VIX.X 12.00 +3.71% ... comes back to DAILY R1 from afternoon low of 11.84. Bears look jittery and may flinch should VIX.X reverse lower and take out session low.

TRIN 0.79 -44.3%

Linda Piazza : 8/1/2005 2:48:52 PM

Benchmarking impressions: the advdec line is slipping tentatively below support, tentatively erasing the upside target if this pullback holds. Do not trade on this information, as it may have little relevance (still to be determined) and as the pullback is tentative.

Linda Piazza : 8/1/2005 2:41:07 PM

SOX failing so far in its test to sustain values above nearest 5-minute Keltner resistance, currently at 475.26 on five-minute closes. Hasn't pulled back far yet.

Linda Piazza : 8/1/2005 2:39:55 PM

The TRAN has been testing Thursday's high of 3821.83, with the TRAN at 3818.27 but with a HOD at 3820.77. It obviously has not pulled back far off that HOD. On the 60- and 240-minute charts, the TRAN's pattern fits with that of a cup-and-handle formation, and these are typical continuation patterns. However, the TRAN also tests the December high of 3823.96 and the March high of 3889.97 is above that, so this intraday cup-and-handle potential continuation pattern may not be the most important pattern on the TRAN's chart. The TRAN usually conforms rather well to its 15-minute chart, and there are some tentative signs of Keltner-style bearish divergence on that chart, with the TRAN facing resistance at 3818.50 on 15-minute closes and then at 3827.95 above that. TRAN dropped a little more as I type, down to 3815.17 currently.

Linda Piazza : 8/1/2005 2:34:25 PM

A few minutes ago, the RUT broke above Friday's high, but it's testing 15-minute Keltner resistance now. The RUT has daily Keltner resistance at 686.27 and 686.87. The RUT is at 684.99.

Linda Piazza : 8/1/2005 2:31:30 PM

The SOX's five-minute Keltner chart is setting up a potential move up to 577.77, with the 15-minute chart suggesting that next resistance on 15-minute closes is a bit lower, at 476.90.

Linda Piazza : 8/1/2005 2:30:37 PM

The BIX still coils just above its 200-ema, with that average at 360.90. The BIX is at 362.12 as I type, with the 200-sma at 364.60 above it.

Linda Piazza : 8/1/2005 2:29:34 PM

RLX is nowhere near its previous HOD yet. It's at 485.04 and the HOD was 487.19.

Linda Piazza : 8/1/2005 2:28:04 PM

That potential 60-minute H&S that I was watching on the SOX was always roughly formed and so perhaps never valid, but I think the right shoulder has extended so long in time that it's really invalid, whether or not it originally had any validity. Bulls can now spot a potential continuation-form inverse H&S at the rop of that rise, with the 7/27 spike lower forming the head and with the shoulders near 470.60 or so. I think we'd have to see a high above 7/21's high before we considered the formation confirmed on the upside, although the actual neckline is probably lower. Many technicians don't place much trust in continuation-form inverse H&S's, but watching to see whether they're confirmed or invalidated is still a useful exercise for those who want to measure short-term bullish or bearish strength.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/1/2005 2:26:39 PM

The 30 and 60 min cycle indicators are in gear to the upside, along with the short cycle as well, making this prime time for intraday bulls. If they can take out Friday's high, then the daily cycle downphase will be challenged. That goal is less than 15 cents away, with price persisting at upper 30 and 60 min channel resistance. Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/1/2005 2:25:43 PM

WellPoint (WLP) $72.52 +2.51% ... session high and trying to make way above WEEKLY R1. Weekly R2 up ahead at $73.91.

Linda Piazza : 8/1/2005 2:23:46 PM

Look at a 60-minute chart of the OEX, and you see a ragged band of candles along the top of the chart, arranged in a straight line but with varying candle lengths. The 60-minute 130-ema at 571.93 marks the approximate bottom of that prolonged consolidation period.

Jeff Bailey : 8/1/2005 2:23:11 PM

Who dat taking down 10 of the WellPoint Sep $72.50 calls?

Jeff Bailey : 8/1/2005 2:22:30 PM

SPY Option Chain (update) found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 8/1/2005 2:22:12 PM

Bulls in the homebuilders haven't give up. The DJUSHB zoomed up for a retest of 1100. It's at 1098.20 as I type, still well below the 1116.75 level that marks a descending trendline off last week's high.

Linda Piazza : 8/1/2005 2:18:31 PM

SOX five-minute Keltner resistance holding so far.

Linda Piazza : 8/1/2005 2:17:57 PM

Benchmarking impressions: Advdec line may be headed up toward 1450-1500. Do not trade on this information.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/1/2005 2:17:53 PM

Session high for MSFT at 26.00, +1.52%.

Jeff Bailey : 8/1/2005 2:16:55 PM

Intra-day VIX.X alert 11.99 +3.63% ... slips below DAILY R1 after test of WEEKLY R1.

Jeff Bailey : 8/1/2005 2:15:18 PM

Cisco Systems (CSCO) $19.41 +1.35% ... session high and testing WEEKLY R1 here.

Linda Piazza : 8/1/2005 2:16:35 PM

OEX surged up to mid-channel Keltner resistance at 474.43. It's pulled back, but that surge broke it out of its descending regression channel to the upside. This comes during the typical stop-running time of day, so certainly quacks like a duck. Let's see if acts like one now, if the stop-run gets reversed. Don't stand in the way if this duck takes steriods, though, and zooms higher. Next 15-minute Keltner resistance at 576.09.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/1/2005 2:14:19 PM

Volume breadth +1.78:1 on the NYSE, +2.03:1 on the Nasdaq.

Linda Piazza : 8/1/2005 2:12:39 PM

SOX pushing higher, but hitting potential five-minute Keltner resistance at 474.80, with the SOX at 474.77.

Jeff Bailey : 8/1/2005 2:12:15 PM

02:00 Internals found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 8/1/2005 2:12:09 PM

Session highs for QQQQ and NQ, breaking the previous high on a burst of volume as the short cycles cross up. 30 and 60 min channel resistance are being tested now, the 30 min channel violated: Link

Linda Piazza : 8/1/2005 2:11:48 PM

RLX still testing 15-minute 100/130-ema's, but the Wilshire 5000 bounced from its 15-minute 100/130-ema's again. May be breaking outside that neutral triangle on the 15-minute chart as I type, to the upside.

Linda Piazza : 8/1/2005 2:10:07 PM

Benchmarking impressions: the advdec line has now spiked up to next Keltner resistance, at 950 or so. See my 1:44 post. Advdec line at 880 as I type. If it maintains five-minute closes above 950-1000, a push up to 1482 is possible according to that chart. Support grows thicker, but a push through 250-260 to the downside suggests a plummet to -600 or so. No strong bias one way or the rother here, although it's going to need a strong push if it's going to go down because of all that potential support. Do not trade on this information.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/1/2005 2:05:51 PM

QQQQ bounces to test the descending intraday trendline at the daily pivot: Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/1/2005 2:04:48 PM

02:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/1/2005 2:02:00 PM

Bidding 300 shares of very thinly traded Bonso Electronics (BNSO) $5.85 +5.97% Link at $5.86 in personal account.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/1/2005 1:56:55 PM

Crude oil +1.225 at 61.80 here.

Linda Piazza : 8/1/2005 1:55:56 PM

The Wilshire 5000's pattern has now settled into a neutral triangle forming along its 15-minute 100/130-ema's. The triangle formed off a drop off Friday's high, so the likely resolution should be to the south, but this triangle is fairly wide in relationship to the drop that preceded it. I'm not sure how valid it is because of that observation.

Linda Piazza : 8/1/2005 1:53:04 PM

On the traditional daily chart, the SOX is getting squeezed between the 10-sma at 473.44 (daily candle bodies forming above it) and the upper resistance on its big rising regression channel on its weekly chart. Daily candle bodies are forming below that resistance, now at about 477.75, although that's approximate since this is a long-term chart and one on the weekly chart, so a little bit wrong on the angle and you're points off by this time into the channel's progression. The SOX is way, way extended above its 200-sma and even the 30-sma, so I think it needs to retrace and find where support lies, shaking out weak bullish hands, even if it is going to eventually head up again through that channel. However, the SOX sometimes has a thrust higher or lower (see 4/29 spike lower at the bottom of the channel, 6/15 spike lower and 6/23 spike higher at the midline) before it changes direction. The 7/22 thrust higher could have been that spike, as the reversal doesn't always come immediately, but then there was that 7/27 spike lower, too. What I'm saying is the SOX can spike one direction or another, running stops, and then head the direction its investors intended it to run, so anything is possible here as it's squeezed between support and resistance. If it does spike in a direction opposite your preferred direction, you want to see that spike quickly reversed, at least by the close. Don't hang on too long and hope with the SOX.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/1/2005 1:47:54 PM

Volume is up to 38.5M QQQQ shares, not even half of Friday's sub-average 74.7M shares.

Linda Piazza : 8/1/2005 1:44:36 PM

Benchmarking impressions: Advdec line trying to bounce from that Keltner support that I mentioned in my 1:21 post. It's tangled up in S/R lines, so difficult to pinpoint next direction. If it moves much above 610 on 5-minute closes, then a bump up to 950-1000 might look possible, but on a rollover through 265 or so on five-minute closes, -630 or so now looks to be the downside target. It's about time for a stop-running move sometime soon, so could see the advdec line move. Do not trade on this information.

Jeff Bailey : 8/1/2005 1:44:49 PM

Cisco Systems (CSCO) $19.378 +1.20% Link ... best levels of the session. Sets up for test of WEEKLY R1 ($19.41) and correlative 21-day SMA ($19.41). 50-day SMA ($19.46) just above.

Jeff Bailey : 8/1/2005 1:40:51 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 8/1/2005 1:39:52 PM

Volume breadth has steadied at +1.55:1 on the Nasdaq, and QQQQ made a higher intraday low at 39.55, curently bouncing back to test the 72 SMA from below at 39.62. While that resistance is holding so far, the intraday cycle picture is rendered bullish by the higher low within the bottomy 60 min cycle. Unless the bears can break the lows with authority, the intraday bias is building cause for synchronous 30 and 60 min cycle upphases. A break above the last high at 39.72 should confirm it.

On the other hand, there's no shortage of bearish arguments for a downside trending move here, with oil and treasury yields so strong today. But for the time being, the previous day's lows are holding. Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/1/2005 1:36:31 PM

Bullish swing trade raise bullish call option stop alert ... let's establish a bullish stop on the remaining one (1) WellPoint WLP Sep. $72.50 Call (WLP-IV) at $1.25.

Linda Piazza : 8/1/2005 1:35:16 PM

Wilshire 5000 still testing 15-minute 100/130-ema's. So is the RLX, although it's beginning to dip below the 130-ema. Still just testing, though.

Linda Piazza : 8/1/2005 1:30:55 PM

OEX testing Friday's low and Keltner support, holding just above Friday's low. No new breakdown signal yet. We're coming up on a prime stop-running time of day in a few minutes, so be prepared for anything. Newbies, remember that markets can continue to move in the direction of a stop-run if such a movement isn't quickly reversed. It's a test, and the test can fail or succeed.

Jeff Bailey : 8/1/2005 1:28:13 PM

Options market maker was rather "aggressive" .... on those WLPs

Jeff Bailey : 8/1/2005 1:25:56 PM

VIX.X 12.20 +5.44% ...

Jeff Bailey : 8/1/2005 1:24:36 PM

WLP $72.19 +2.04% ...

Jeff Bailey : 8/1/2005 1:24:05 PM

Filled on two (2) of the WellPoint WLP Sep. $72.50 Calls (WLP-IV) at $2.05 in personal account.

Jeff Bailey : 8/1/2005 1:22:26 PM

WellPoint (WLP) $72.13 +1.96% ... session high has been $72.40, with WEEKLY R1 $72.33.

Jeff Bailey : 8/1/2005 1:21:09 PM

Bullish swing trade exit partial call position alert ... let's sell two (2) of the WellPoint WLP Sep $72.50 Calls (WLP-IV) at the bid of $2.00.

Linda Piazza : 8/1/2005 1:21:32 PM

Benchmarking impressions: As short-term bears hoped, the advdec line turned lower again beneath 1397-1550, but it's now testing potential support again. Should that fail, the 5- and 15-minute charts show a possibility of a steep fall toward -660, next support. Five-minute support at 280. Do not trade on this information.

Linda Piazza : 8/1/2005 1:18:29 PM

Wilshire 5000 testing its 15-minute 100/130-ema's again. Didn't get far on that last bounce.

Linda Piazza : 8/1/2005 1:17:49 PM

OEX headed down to test Friday's low and Keltner support, with that support at 472.45 on 15-minute closes. A close beneath that support sets a 569.83 downside target, but the OEX needs to do a more convincing job of setting that target than it did last time.

Linda Piazza : 8/1/2005 1:16:03 PM

RLX barely moved during that last 15-minute period.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/1/2005 1:12:03 PM

There goes the 39.60 level, QQQQ heading for a retest of the 30 min channel bottom at 39.54. Because the 60 min cycle is due for an upphase, any failure to make a lower low agains the prior 39.52 low will be bullish. Bears need a break of daily S1 at 39.45 to suggest a downside trending move- this looks like the less-likely outcome to me. If it does occur, it will confirm that the daily cycle downphase is back in gear.

Jeff Bailey : 8/1/2005 1:10:46 PM

01:00 Internals found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 8/1/2005 1:10:35 PM

DJUSHB's still testing the 15-minute 100/130-ema's that it gapped below after the economic news this morning.

Linda Piazza : 8/1/2005 1:09:47 PM

OEX dropping from the top of its descending regression channel off Thursday's high. OEX bears would like to see a sound violation on a 15-minute close of the Keltner line currently at 572.50, with that setting up a downside target of 569.83.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/1/2005 1:09:23 PM

The Treasury auctioned 34B of 13-week and 26-week bills. The 13-week auction set a high-rate of 3.477% and a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.15, the 26-week auction a high-rate of 3.718% and a 2.12 bid-to-cover. Foreign central banks took 9.9B of the total. The auctions set new high-rates for the year, while the bid-to-cover ratios were the best in 3 weeks.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/1/2005 1:05:59 PM

New session high for crude oil at 62, +1.425. Ten year note yields are off their highs but still holding new highs for the move, +5.1 bps at 4.337%.

Jeff Bailey : 8/1/2005 1:03:43 PM

01:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 8/1/2005 1:01:13 PM

And bouncing back above it.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/1/2005 1:00:10 PM

QQQQ breaking 72 SMA and rising channel support here: Link

Linda Piazza : 8/1/2005 12:57:21 PM

OEX still testing the top of a steep descending regression channel formed off Thursday's high.

Linda Piazza : 8/1/2005 12:56:47 PM

The TRAN is just a little more than 2 points off its HOD, as I type, perhaps moving up to retest that HOD or perhaps just oscillating through a consolidation zone that it's been building.

Linda Piazza : 8/1/2005 12:54:25 PM

The RLX has not been able to maintain values above its 15-minute 100/130-ema's, and is retesting them.

Linda Piazza : 8/1/2005 12:52:21 PM

The Wilshire 5000 hasn't been able to make much progress since bouncing a second time today from its 15-minute 100/130-ema's.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/1/2005 12:46:55 PM

Session high for Sept. crude at 61.925, session low for GE at 34.29.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/1/2005 12:45:48 PM

The short cycle indicators are starting to bump their heads in overbought territory after a respectable upphase. Lately, the short cycle has been running smoothly from high to low and back again without trending at either extreme for long. If that occurs here, then we've seen the short cycle high at 39.71, and a break below 39.61 should be enough to confirm a new downphase from a lower intraday high. Link

Linda Piazza : 8/1/2005 12:49:25 PM

SOX bears need to see the SOX close the day beneath daily Keltner support at 469.60.

Linda Piazza : 8/1/2005 12:37:59 PM

Rather than finding resistance or support at a specific Keltner line, the OEX today has tended to move to a certain Keltner line and then oscillate around it for a while. That makes it more difficult to tell when support or resistance may have been violated. So far, the current climb isn't alarming to near-term bears, but it's not comforting, either. They would still like the OEX to head to a new low again. It may do that, now having set up a fairly well defined descending regression channel on the 15-minute chart and currently testing the top resistance of that regression channel. A 15-minute close above about 574.50, however, would suggest that the OEX is breaking above that regression channel to the upside, suggesting that the OEX might once again cycle up through that Keltner channel that's been containing it for a couple of weeks now, its top boundary now at 576.48.

Jeff Bailey : 8/1/2005 12:37:30 PM

Who dat at $2.10? Somebody just sold three (3) of the WellPoint WLP Sep $72.50 Calls (WLP-IV) at the bid of $2.10.

WLP $72.23 +2.10% ... I'm thinking of taking two (2) off the table for a double. How about you? Nice spikes in premiums today! VIX.X 12.18 +5.09%, VXO 11.34 +2.43%

Jeff Bailey : 8/1/2005 12:32:55 PM

Brazil's giant and government-run oil company, Petroleo Brasileiro SA (NYSE:PBR) $53.80 +2.33% postpones the announcement of its 10-year strategic plan. The postponement occurred because shareholders asked for more details about the strategic plan before its public announcement.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/1/2005 12:25:14 PM

Current QQQQ volume is 33.4M shares, compared with a total of 74.8M on Friday and an average daily volume of 83.995M.

Linda Piazza : 8/1/2005 12:15:20 PM

The RLX bounced from its 10-sma this morning. OEX bears need to see this index below that 10-sma and then below 479. RLX at 484.72 as I type.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/1/2005 12:15:10 PM

Crude oil down to a 1.1 gain at 61.675, session high still 61.85, while TNX is holding a 5.6 bp gain at 4.342%. QQQQ's break above 39.65, despite the brief surge of volume, has had no followtrough, and price is holding within its rising channel. The short cycle upphase will continue so long as price holds above 39.62, the current level of the short cycle channel bottom: Link

Linda Piazza : 8/1/2005 12:13:22 PM

The OEX's first Keltner resistance at a line currently at 573.41 did not hold, and the OEX is currently headed back up to mid-channel resistance at 574.27-574.60. OEX at 573.64 as I type.

Linda Piazza : 8/1/2005 12:10:47 PM

SOX trying to hold support on its 10-sma.

Tab Gilles : 8/1/2005 12:10:19 PM

Time Warner (TWX) Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/1/2005 12:10:00 PM

12:00 Internals found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 8/1/2005 12:03:47 PM

QQQQ breaks back above 39.65 on a small burst of volume, with volume breadth back up to +2.22:1 for the Nasdaq, +1.55:1 on the NYSE.

Jeff Bailey : 8/1/2005 12:02:13 PM

12:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/1/2005 11:58:46 AM

SPY Option Chain found at this Link

Tab Gilles : 8/1/2005 11:57:24 AM

DELL Link Link

Linda Piazza : 8/1/2005 11:55:43 AM

OEX testing first Keltner resistance at 573.39 on a 15-minute closing basis. OEX curently at 573.37.

Tab Gilles : 8/1/2005 11:55:26 AM

Eaton Vance Limitied Duration (EVV) Link

Linda Piazza : 8/1/2005 11:54:23 AM

Benchmarking impressions: Market bears want to see the advdec line turn lower from 1388-1545 or lower. See my 10:54 post that noted that the advdec line was attempting to steady at Keltner support. Don't make trading decisions based on this information.

Linda Piazza : 8/1/2005 11:52:54 AM

RLX still testing those 15-minute 100/130-ema's at 484.47 and 483.78, with the RLX at 484.27.

Tab Gilles : 8/1/2005 11:51:22 AM

7/21 chart TLT. Link

Jonathan Levinson : 8/1/2005 11:48:17 AM

QQQQ has edged up to 39.63, but its done so slowly enough to avoid violating the bear flag: Link . 39.65 was solid support this morning until the 10:35AM breakdown, and regardless of the pattern, it looks like a break above 39.63-.65 could attract some buyers.

Tab Gilles : 8/1/2005 11:49:36 AM

iShares Lehman 20+ Year Treas Bond (TLT) Link Link

followup to 7/21 chart Link

Linda Piazza : 8/1/2005 11:46:13 AM

DJUSHB coming up to retest the 15-minute 100/130-ema's, too, with those at 1089.52 and 1088.71, and the DJUSHB at 1082.55. These are needed retests, although it's always uncomfortable for bears to endure them. They're particularly uncomfortable in this climate, when such retests have almost always led to another zip higher instead of a confirmation that former support now holds as resistance.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/1/2005 11:43:42 AM

Session low for GE here, -.15 at 34.35, down .43% today compared with a .4% decline for the Dow futures.

Linda Piazza : 8/1/2005 11:39:56 AM

TRAN still testing that 3804 S/R zone, at 3804.25 as I type. It's still within a descending regression channel from which it pulled back off Thursday's high.

Linda Piazza : 8/1/2005 11:39:00 AM

OEX bears want continued 15-minute closes beneath a Keltner line currently at 573.38 or at least beneath mid-channel resistance from 574.38-574.70.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/1/2005 11:36:56 AM

VXO 11.34, VXN 14.55

Jeff Bailey : 8/1/2005 11:29:00 AM

WellPoint (WLP) 72.00 +1.78% Link ... "X" gets the square.

Jeff Bailey : 8/1/2005 11:28:01 AM

Union Pacific RR (UNP) $71.00 +0.99% Link ... "X" gets the square.

Linda Piazza : 8/1/2005 11:27:58 AM

I said earlier that we should expect an RLX retest of the 15-minute 100/130-ema's and that such a test could come rather soon, and it did. The RLX is currently retesting those averages at 484.48 and 483.73, respectively, with the RLX at 483.40. Until the RLX breaks below 479 and maintains values below that, it's still within its broadening formation at the top of its climb, as seen on the 60-minute chart.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/1/2005 11:26:09 AM

Session low for ten year notes at 110 35/64, TNX up 6 bps at 4.346%. Crude oil is up 1.15 or 1.9% at 61.725, current high 61.80.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/1/2005 11:25:16 AM

Volume breadth weakened to the low +1.2:1 area for the Nasdaq, but it never went negative. Friday's lows were tested for QQQQ, but held to within 2 cents, not enough to qualify as a lower low. The short cycles are on a bullish kiss, and a new upphase should start on a move back above the 72 SMA at 39.63.

Linda Piazza : 8/1/2005 11:24:32 AM

The OEX is not maintaining that breakdown signal, but bears will feel somewhat reconciled if 15-minute closes are below a Keltner line currently at 573.49. That would at least suggest that support might be retested again. Bears would most like to see another 15-minute close beneath the Keltner line currently at 572.63.

Jeff Bailey : 8/1/2005 11:23:15 AM

Texas Industries (TXI) $54.65 -25.77% Link ... Late Friday the company completed spin-off of its Chaparral Steel unit through a pro-rata tax-free dividend of all the common stock of Chaparral Steel Company to TXI shareholders. Common shares of Chaparral Steel Company now trade on the NASDAQ stock exchange under the symbol: CHAP, $19.65 +6.79%. TXI is the largest producer of cement in Texas and a major cement producer in California. TXI is also a major supplier of construction aggregates, ready-mix concrete and concrete products.

Jeff Bailey : 8/1/2005 11:17:33 AM

Administaff (ASF) $31.38 +22.57% Link ... provider of outsourced personnel management sees its shares surge after reporting sharply higher Q2 earnings. The company said profit grew to $7.3 million, or $0.28 per share, from $2.8 million, or $0.10 cents per share, a year ago. Net revenue rose 20% to $279.9 million from $232.9 million. This figure subtracts payroll costs of $1.28 billion from gross billings, which rose 24% to $1.56 billion.

The results easily beat analysts' expectations for profit of $0.19 per share on net sales of $273.7 million.

Linda Piazza : 8/1/2005 11:17:26 AM

Wilshire 5000 still trying to steady at its 15-minute 100/130-ema's.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/1/2005 11:16:19 AM

The shape of the sideways bounce suggests a bear flag/"b" distribution, while the short cycles are gathering in oversold territory and trying to turn up. A break above 39.60 would support a new short cycle upphase, while bears need a move below 39.45 to suggest a trending oversold move for the 30/60 min and short cycles. Link

Linda Piazza : 8/1/2005 11:15:52 AM

OEX now below Friday's low, closing a 15-minute period low enough to reset its downside target, now at 569.83. That was only a tepid breakdown, though, so bears must still exercise exteme caution.

Linda Piazza : 8/1/2005 11:12:35 AM

SOX currently below its daily 10-sma at 473.42, with the SOX at 472.82, but it's still within testing range of this average. The SOX hasn't closed beneath this average since early in July.

Jeff Bailey : 8/1/2005 11:11:04 AM

11:00 Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/1/2005 11:04:24 AM

11:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 8/1/2005 11:01:29 AM

Ten year notes are bouncing off a low of 110 9/16, with TNX down to a 4.4 bp gain at 4.330%. Previously strong resistance at 4.30% is now support.

Linda Piazza : 8/1/2005 11:00:45 AM

The Wilshire 5000 is attempting a bounce from its 15-minute 100/130-ema's, just as it did earlier today when it tested them. May be forming a new H&S, this one with an almost horizontal neckline at about the location of the 130-ema, at 12,363.06, or maybe an actual horizontal one with a neckline at about 12,355. The DWX is at 12,379.79 as I type.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/1/2005 10:59:12 AM

QQQQ is making a bounce attempt from a nominally lower low, volume breadth down to 1.28:1 on the Nasdaq but not yet going negative. 72 SMA resistance is down to 39.63 here, with 30 and 60 min channel support declining to 39.46, where they currently overlap. Link The 60 min cycle is just approaching oversold territory, with the 30 min stalling early in this morning's upphase. The lower daily high confirms the daily cycle weakness, and bears have to be hoping for that daily cycle bearishness to overpower the intraday cycles which are due for a bounce. That bounce should be corrective, but until the 60 min cycle starts to turn, we can only guess.

Linda Piazza : 8/1/2005 10:57:49 AM

RLX now firmly beneath its 15-minute 100/130-ema's at 484.53 and 483.75. The SOX tested these averages on 7/06-7/07, but didn't break below them this firmly, even during that market uncertainty, so this is an important short-term signal. I would definitely expect a bounce up to retest these averages because tests of them were buying opportunities for so long, with that test to come maybe soon, with the RLX currently at 482.49.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/1/2005 10:55:45 AM

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Worldwide sales of chips for computers, cell phones, consumer electronics and other applications rose to $109 billion in the first six months of the year, up 6.5% from the same period in 2004, the Semiconductor Industry Association said Monday. "The strongest growth in 2004 occurred in the first half of the year," said SIA President George Scalise. "In contrast, we expect the strongest growth in 2005 to occur in the second half of the year."

Linda Piazza : 8/1/2005 10:54:50 AM

Benchmarking impressions: Wish I could show you the 15-minute Keltner chart for the advdec line. A doji forming exactly on Keltner support as the advdec line tries to steady. If it does steady and there's a bounce in the advdec line, short-term equity bears want it to find resistance this time below 1526-1638. Unclear whether it will bounce, but there's a lot of potential support from 20-254, too. Don't trade on this information.

Jeff Bailey : 8/1/2005 10:53:07 AM

Hanover Compressor (HC) $14.50 -0.27% ... slips red.

Linda Piazza : 8/1/2005 10:52:48 AM

SOX trying to bounce again.

Linda Piazza : 8/1/2005 10:52:21 AM

What's happened on the OEX this morning? Essentially, it retested the neckline of its H&S and fell away from that test. Now needs a low below Friday's and a 15-minute close below the Keltner line currently at 572.85 to confirm that the former support now serves as resistance. No such confirmation as I type.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/1/2005 10:50:49 AM

VXO 11.18, VXN 14.65

Linda Piazza : 8/1/2005 10:48:38 AM

The OEX just won't be budged lately. It's fallen but stays within a tight rising regression channel on its daily chart, forming since the middle of July. This morning, it refuses to renew its Keltner breakdown signal, too, resetting a downside target that's now at 569.90. It needs a 15-minute close beneath 572.73 to reset that target. Daily 21-ema is at 571.50, and that some often play a part in the OEX's trading pattern over the last two months.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/1/2005 10:45:55 AM

QQQQ is testing Friday's spike low from a lower high for the day.

Linda Piazza : 8/1/2005 10:45:42 AM

RLX dropping through its broadening formation. Remember that it will require a fall beneath 479 to confirm a break of that broadening formation. The 240-minute 21-ema waits at 479.15 to offer potential support at the bottom of that broadening formation. The RLX is at 482.84 as I type.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/1/2005 10:45:13 AM

Session high for Sept. crude oil at 61.60, +1.025 or 1.67%.

Linda Piazza : 8/1/2005 10:44:24 AM

The SOX's 240-minute 21/100/130-ema's have been particularly important to the SOX's trading pattern. It's now stretched itself far over the 100/130-ema's, now down near 444 and 439, respectively, but so far, it's been bouncing from the 21-ema since early in July. That average is at 469.58 with the SOX at 471.89, so watch for a possible upcoming test of that important average.

Linda Piazza : 8/1/2005 10:42:41 AM

Benchmarking impressions: Advdec line testing support, but if that doesn't hold (1502 on 15-minute closes) then the breakout this morning is erased, and we've possibly had a pop-and-drop in this line, at least, without the advdec line ever being able to reach its upside target. Watch for the 15-minute close, though. Don't trade on this information.

Jeff Bailey : 8/1/2005 10:42:11 AM

HMO Index (HMO.X) 1,506.18 +1.82% Link ... coming up to test its trending higher 50-day SMA (1,507).

Jonathan Levinson : 8/1/2005 10:41:05 AM

Volume breadth weakens here to +1.49:1 on the NYSE and +1.6:1 on the Nasdaq. QQQQ is on very light volume even by recent standards, 17.1M shares traded so far at 10:41AM.

Linda Piazza : 8/1/2005 10:40:51 AM

Still watching the Wilshire 5000. The DWC bounced this morning from its 15-minute 100/130-ema's, but now consolidates and maybe headed down to retest them. They're at 12,374.44 and 12,363.65, with the DWC currently at 12,384.83. It's been climbing the midline of an ascending regression channel on its daily chart, with the bottom just below the rising daily 21-ema at 12,237.77. So, the Wilshire 5000 is far from having broken the support of its rising regression channel just yet but not showing particular strength today yet, either. Continued lower as I type, but watch for a possible bounce from those averages again.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/1/2005 10:40:01 AM

Ten year note yields +5.6 bps at 4.342%, crude oil +.925 at 61.50, off a high of 61.575.

Jeff Bailey : 8/1/2005 10:39:53 AM

eBay (EBAY) $43.55 +4.25% Link ... strong gains with Smith Barney upgrading to "buy" from "hold."

Jonathan Levinson : 8/1/2005 10:39:07 AM

Back. QQQQ breaks strongly below the daily pivot, back below the 72 SMA at 39.65 and turning the short cycle down. 30 min channel support is at 39.52. Link

Linda Piazza : 8/1/2005 10:37:22 AM

OEX bears want to see the OEX drop below Friday's close and end a 15-minute period below a Keltner line currently at 572.97. Right now, the OEX still just oscillates around 574.

Linda Piazza : 8/1/2005 10:36:08 AM

SOX continuing lower. RUT still testing Friday's high, however, not giving up so quickly. Friday's high was 684.81 and the RUT is at 684.21 as I type.

Jeff Bailey : 8/1/2005 10:36:25 AM

Nokia (NOK) $15.89 -0.37% Link ... Company saying veteran manager Olli-Pekka Kallasvuo will take over as chief executive from Jorma Ollila next year.

Kallasvuo, 52, will assume the CEO role on June 1 2006 after becoming president and chief operating officer on Oct. 1 2005. He has sat on the executive board since 1990 and joined Nokia some 25 years ago.

Ollila, 54, will become non-executive chairman in June, for a limited but unspecified number of years.

President Pekka Ala-Pietila, also considered by analysts a possible CEO candidate, will leave Nokia Feb. 1 2006. Ala-Pietila said at a press conference in Helsinki he didn't want to be considered for the top job as, after 17 years in the industry, he no longer "had the fire."

Linda Piazza : 8/1/2005 10:32:48 AM

The TRAN's pattern on its intraday charts could well be a bull flag pulling back off its slightly higher high on Thursday. That's of concern to market bears, who would like to see the TRAN break lower more strongly and not keep testing the resistance of the descending regression channel that can now be formed off Thursday's high.

Linda Piazza : 8/1/2005 10:29:30 AM

BIX still gaining. It's going to be difficult to budge the OEX much if some of the sectors that share components are going to head opposite directions again. RLX not showing particular strength. SOX isn't either.

Linda Piazza : 8/1/2005 10:25:53 AM

OEX still essentially oscillating around 574.

Linda Piazza : 8/1/2005 10:24:56 AM

The DJUSHB dropped after the 10:00 releases, gapping below the 15-minute 100/130-ema's and confirming a H&S formation on its 15-minute chart. This decline is bringing the DJUSHB back to retest support at a long-term steep ascending regression channel in place since May, but I'd use the daily 21-ema as a guideline for whether prices are really violating that channel. That MA has been following the channel higher, now falling away from it a bit. Last week's attempted price breakdown out of that channel was supported by this average. It's at 1064.22 now, with the DJUSHB at 1082.41. I'd show you a chart, but my links haven't been working.

Jeff Bailey : 8/1/2005 10:22:23 AM

10 Most Active ... MSFT $25.90 +1.13%, QQQQ $39.69 +0.27%, SPY $123.81 +0.05%, EBAY $43.58 +4.35%, SIRI $6.95 +2.05%, INTC $27.36 +0.81%, CSCO $19.24 +0.41%, ORCL $13.58 +0.07%, IIJI $10.72 +11.31%, SUNW $3.85 +0.26%

Linda Piazza : 8/1/2005 10:19:20 AM

RLX trying to bounce again. TRAN, too. SOX, too. None of those bounces are terribly impressive, although perhaps the TRAN's is a bit more so than the others. BIX also trying to bounce and looks a bit stronger, but hasn't hit a new HOD yet.

Jeff Bailey : 8/1/2005 10:18:28 AM

Current OPEN MM Profiles found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 8/1/2005 10:17:30 AM

The OEX still looks as if it might be forming into a bear flag, trying to rise further. Next Keltner resistance just above 574, but then at 574.76-575.20.

Linda Piazza : 8/1/2005 10:16:15 AM

Benchmarking impressions: Not sure yet if the climb in the advdec line is finished. There's potential support near 1400-1440. Upside target still near 3000 if that support holds and there's a new advdec high to confirm it. A 15-minute drop below 1374 undoes the upside target. Don't trade on this information.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/1/2005 10:14:04 AM

QQQQ is back below the pivot and the 72 SMA, the short cycle indicators stalling in overbought territory. Below 39.63, it should print its first sell signal. So far, the 30 min cycle has generated weak traction, but until the premarket lows in the 39.60 area break, there still remain potentially hours left in which for it to kick in.

Linda Piazza : 8/1/2005 10:12:54 AM

There's a chance I might have to be in and out today, and might need to leave quickly. My medically fragile granddaughter has contracted chicken pox from an immunization (Texas requires them) and her glucose levels have begun to be unstable, a sign of metabolic decompensation. Just a warning that if I disappear quickly, it's not because I'm idly vacating my spot. I won't have any warning if she crashes.

Jeff Bailey : 8/1/2005 10:11:29 AM

Friday's Internals found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 8/1/2005 10:10:54 AM

TRAN pulling back to that 3804 level again. It's at 3804.20 as I type.

Jeff Bailey : 8/1/2005 10:10:37 AM

10:00 Internals found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 8/1/2005 10:10:28 AM

Big drop on the RLX since the 10:00 releases. It's all the way back to the 15-minute 100/130-ema's again, with those at 484.61 and 483.81 and the RLX at 484.42 as I type. OEX short-term bears want to see the RLX fall.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/1/2005 10:10:18 AM

Session low for ten year notes at 110 11/16, with TNX up 3.8 bps to 4.324%. Crude oil just make a high at 61.30.

Linda Piazza : 8/1/2005 10:08:21 AM

OEX is turning back from Keltner resistance at the mid-channel level, but for the last 45 minutes has essentially been oscillating around 574. Needs another breakdown signal on a 15-minute close beneath a Keltner line currently at 573.15 before that 570.04 downside target is reset.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/1/2005 10:07:58 AM

Crude oil reopens, currently +.55 at 61.125. Session high remains 61.225.

Linda Piazza : 8/1/2005 10:05:44 AM

The TRAN has risen to once again retest what had once been the neckline of its tiny H&S on its 15-minute chart. A first retest occurred Friday and that trendline held that time. The TRAN has pulled back a little from the HOD, but not muc hyet. Needs to dip below Friday's 3793.15 low before we consider the attempt to move higher a failure.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/1/2005 10:06:55 AM

Headlines:

U.S. JULY ISM 56.6% VS. 54.5% EXPECTED

U.S. JULY ISM PRICES PAID 48.5% VS. 50.5%

U.S. JULY ISM NEW ORDERS 60.6% VS. 57.2%

Jonathan Levinson : 8/1/2005 10:04:22 AM

Volume breadth has held firm, +1.97:1 on the NYSE and +2.98:1 on the Nasdaq.

Linda Piazza : 8/1/2005 10:04:22 AM

OEX still testing mid-channel Keltner resistance, now up to 575.33 on a 15-mintue closing basis.

Jeff Bailey : 8/1/2005 10:04:01 AM

WellPoint (WLP) $71.80 +1.49% ... notable new 52-weeker on the big board. Overhead supply should be limited.

Linda Piazza : 8/1/2005 10:02:44 AM

If some theorists are right, the higher-than-expected ISM could actually be equity negative, but waiting for the reaction. Perhaps the first reaction will not be the last, so be aware of that possibility.

Jeff Bailey : 8/1/2005 10:02:08 AM

10:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 8/1/2005 10:01:47 AM

ISM 56.6 vs. 54.5 exp.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/1/2005 10:00:52 AM

Headlines:

U.S. JUNE CONSTRUCTION SPENDING FALLS 0.3%

U.S. JUNE CONSTRUCTION SPENDING BELOW EXPECTATIONS

Linda Piazza : 8/1/2005 9:58:25 AM

RLX shot up, undoing that whole continuation-form H&S thing, so that tells us that RLX bulls are running the show over the short-term basis. RLX still within a broadening formation, with Friday's high at 489.34 and the RLX now at 487.19.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/1/2005 9:57:27 AM

Awaiting Construction Spending for June and the ISM data at 10AM.

Linda Piazza : 8/1/2005 9:55:28 AM

SOX still having difficulty maintaining gains today.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/1/2005 9:55:52 AM

The Fed announces a 4.5B overnight repo, net drain of 2.5B against the 7B expiring. Tomorrow will see 10.5B worth of expiries.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/1/2005 9:54:32 AM

Ten year note yields have broken 4.3% resistance, up 2.8 bps at 4.314%, a new high for the move and a trending move for the daily cycle. Daily chart at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 8/1/2005 9:51:58 AM

Session high for QQQQ at 39.73, breaking above descending resistance from Friday's decline: Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/1/2005 9:51:57 AM

WellPoint (WLP) $71.48 +1.04% ... here's my bar chart with two bullishly fitted 38.2% retracement at this Link and identifies my near-term bullish target of $74.33-$75.20.

Linda Piazza : 8/1/2005 9:51:41 AM

The OEX continues to test that Keltner resistance that now extends up to 575.35. We may have to wait until after 10:00 to see the ultimate outcome.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/1/2005 9:51:25 AM

The Fed has a 7B 5-day repo expiring this AM. Awaiting the announcement to see whether the Fed will add or drain against it.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/1/2005 9:49:14 AM

Big gains in Swiss Franc futures, with euro and CAD futures also up strongly, printing .7874, 1.2244 and .8231 respectively. The US Dollar Index has declined to the 88.60 level, weak since last night's open. Link

Jane Fox : 8/1/2005 9:48:36 AM

Dateline CNN President Bush today to name John Bolton to be nation's U.N. ambassador through recess appointment, senior Bush administration official says.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/1/2005 9:45:19 AM

The Dow is dragging on its peers, with QQQQ testing and printing below 72 SMA support here. A break below 39.60 should be enough to reverse the faltering short cycle upphase.

Linda Piazza : 8/1/2005 9:45:00 AM

RLX still trying to bounce, still within a potential H&S on its 15-minute chart. That's a continuation-form H&S, though, so not to be trusted. Can still give us some measure of bullish or bearish short-term strength.

Linda Piazza : 8/1/2005 9:43:46 AM

The OEX appears to be struggling with Keltner resistance at 574.22, with further resistance now up to 575.41. It hasn't yet dropped back below the breakdown signal level, though, with that currently at 573.26 on 15-minute closes. Bears can't exactly take deep breaths here, but at least the bounce held beneath one resistance level that I'd pinpointed.

Linda Piazza : 8/1/2005 9:41:58 AM

SOX dropping all the way back to its retest of the former declining trendline off the 7/21 high.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/1/2005 9:41:56 AM

QQQQ volume is lighter than usual at 4.9M shares traded so far, breadth still strongly positive on both exchanges.

Jeff Bailey : 8/1/2005 9:42:49 AM

WellPoint (WLP) $71.00 +0.36% Link .... I believe that was a "bad tick" at the open to $68.79. I'm showing opening low of $70.45.

Linda Piazza : 8/1/2005 9:41:06 AM

Benchmarking impressions: According to the 15-minute Keltner chart of the advdec line, there could be more upside to the climb on the advdec line, perhaps up toward 2980 or slightly higher. That would fit with a climb into the 10:00 numbers, if that climb should continue, but by that time, the advdec line should be overbought on a Keltner basis, so short-term bulls would need to have profit-protecting plans in place soon. Don't make market decisions based on these benchmarking posts, as our final determination could be that they're of no use at all.

Jeff Bailey : 8/1/2005 9:40:28 AM

Humana (HUM) $42.40 +6.39% Link ... matches consensus Q2 expectations and reaffirms 2005 outlook.

Linda Piazza : 8/1/2005 9:39:03 AM

Wilshire 5000 bouncing from its 15-minute 100/130-ema's. Hasn't topped Friday's last 15-minute swing high or 12,413.34 yet. It's at 12396.49 as I type.

Linda Piazza : 8/1/2005 9:37:47 AM

TRAN back at that 3804 S/R zone, retesting it. The TRAN is at 3804.06 as I type.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/1/2005 9:37:13 AM

QQQQ tests resistance at the daily pivot and descending trendline connecting Friday's highs: Link

Linda Piazza : 8/1/2005 9:37:10 AM

OEX testing the neckline of its H&S from Friday.

Linda Piazza : 8/1/2005 9:35:57 AM

SOX 15-minute Keltner resistance on 15-minute closes at 477.63-477.88, but it turns higher and so might not be particularly strong. SOX at 476.69 as I type.

Jeff Bailey : 8/1/2005 9:35:02 AM

Hanover Compressor (HC) $14.70 +1.10% ... "hot" early.

Linda Piazza : 8/1/2005 9:34:50 AM

RLX opened higher, but headed right back to near the flat-line level. It's testing the 15-minute 100/130-ema's and the 50% retracement of its last short-term rally, perhaps forming a continuation-form H&S just above the 100/130-ema's at 484.57 and 483.75, respectively. The RLX is at 484.51 as I type.

Linda Piazza : 8/1/2005 9:33:01 AM

SOX bouncing this morning, having eased back late Friday to retest the descending trendline off the 7/21 high, so see if it holds as support. Bulls want to see a high above Friday's to confirm that it held. SOX moving up to test that 477.82 high. At 476.28 as I type.

Linda Piazza : 8/1/2005 9:31:50 AM

Bounce as expected in the OEX first thing this morning. Bears want to see a 15-minute close below the currently being tested 574.20 zone, or below 574.80-575.30 if that doesn't hold on the first 15-minute close.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/1/2005 9:31:28 AM

Volume breadth at the open is +1.97:1 on the NYSE and +3.53:1 on the Nasdaq.

Jeff Bailey : 8/1/2005 9:30:52 AM

Procter & Gamble (PG) $55.63 Link ... indicated higher at $56.01 after beating quarterly estimates by a penny and issued in-line guidance for 2006.

Linda Piazza : 8/1/2005 9:30:31 AM

As you're making trading decisions early today, remember the economic numbers that Jonathan told readers about this morning, due at 10:00.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/1/2005 9:30:10 AM

October gold is holding a 1.90 gain at 434.70, off a high of 435.10. The move has broken to the upside out of the bear flag and exceeding 20-day bollinger resistance at 433.44. Next confluence resistance is at 438-439, while 432 is immediate support. Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/1/2005 9:27:51 AM

Axonyx (AXYX) $1.34 Link ... Company saying that the U.S. Food & Drug Admin. has approved its Investigational New Drug Application, submitted in June 2005, allowing Phase I clinical testing of Posiphen. The study is to begin shortly and will primarily evaluate the safety of Posiphen in healthy volunteers. Posiphen is in development for the potential treatment of Alzheimer's Disease progression.

Jeff Bailey : 8/1/2005 9:23:40 AM

TiVo (TIVO) $6.25 Link ... Sander Morris cuts TiVo to "sell" from "hold."

Jeff Bailey : 8/1/2005 9:21:02 AM

Denny's Corporation (DENN) $5.62 Link ... moves to #3 most active with block of 562,400 crossing the wire.

That's Denny's, not Lenny's.

Jeff Bailey : 8/1/2005 9:17:09 AM

Federal Government Funded Stem Cell research DJ - Senate supporters of a measure to ease restrictions on embryonic stem cell research now lack the votes to override a threatened veto by President George W. Bush, Sen. Arlen Specter said.

But the Pennsylvania Republican said he believes eventually there will be enough votes in the Senate to override a veto.

Jeff Bailey : 8/1/2005 9:18:30 AM

Brazil posts $5.01 billion July foreign trade surplus. January-July foreign trade surplus $24.68 billion.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/1/2005 9:13:09 AM

QQQQ's weekly cycle indicators left off on a bearish kiss on Friday, the daily cycle on the verge of re-establishing its sell signal, and the 60 min cycle just past the halfway mark in its downphase. The 30 min cycle was oversold and showing a bullish kiss, which this morning has turned up in a preliminary upphase.

The 72 SMA, above which that upphase will persist, is currently at 39.65, with 30 min channel resistance just above at 39.71. Confluence support is at 39.62, followed by 39.57. Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/1/2005 9:11:14 AM

IMF Executive Board Concludes 2005 Article IV Consultation with the United States Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/1/2005 9:07:24 AM

Sirius Satellite Radio (SIRI) $6.82 Link ... #2 most active in pre-market trade and higher at $6.95 after announcing that Ford (F) $10.74 Link and Lincoln Mercury will begin offering Sirius as a factory-installed option this month on select vehicle lines.

Jeff Bailey : 8/1/2005 9:06:28 AM

Putnam intends to vote against the proposed merger of Providian (PVN) $18.90 Link and Washington Mutual (WM) $42.48 Link , saying Washington Mutual's offer price is too low and that credit card companies such as Providian are an increasingly scarce asset and should command a higher price. Putnam controls roughly 7.5% of Providian's outstanding shares.

Linda Piazza : 8/1/2005 9:06:21 AM

My links are not working this morning, but a report from the International Monetary Fund, the IMF, released Friday, is credited with pressuring the dollar. It's a report on the U.S. economy, generally upbeat, although expressing some concerns about the deficit, U.S. savings rates, the housing market, and some concern about what would happen if crude were to keep pressuring the U.S. economy. You can access the report by going to the IMF's website a .org website, and clicking on Friday's "Public Information Notice: IMF Executive Board Concludes 2005 Article IV Consultation with the United States."

Jeff Bailey : 8/1/2005 8:52:23 AM

Internet Initiative Japan (IIJI) $9.63 Link ... atop this morning's most active list and higher at $10.84 after forming an alliance with Hewlett Packard (HPQ) to deliver R.F.I.D. (Radio Frequency Identification) technology.

Jane Fox : 8/1/2005 8:46:42 AM

Dateline WSJ Economists are lifting projections for U.S. economic growth in the second half on expectations that the nation's retailers and manufacturers will be restocking inventories and ramping up production to keep up with demand.

The forecasts stem from Friday's report by the Commerce Department that gross domestic product -- the broadest measure of output of goods and services, adjusted for inflation -- grew at a 3.4% annual rate in the second quarter. The figure, roughly in line with expectations, marked a slowdown from the 3.8% growth rate registered in the first quarter and the 4.2% expansion for all of 2004.

Jeff Bailey : 8/1/2005 8:46:03 AM

Program Trading Levels for Monday ... HL Camp & Company has their computers set for program buying at $+3.58 and set for program selling at $+1.44.

Jane Fox : 8/1/2005 8:41:44 AM

Dateline WSJ U.S. oil prices leapt to two-week highs of more than $61 a barrel early Monday on news of the death of King Fahd -- the head of the world's top oil exporter, Saudi Arabia. Prices were also supported by Iran's threat on Sunday to restart its nuclear-enrichment program, sparking concerns that tension between Tehran and Western nations could disrupt oil supplies from OPEC's second-largest exporter. Oil prices climbed 53 cents to $61.10 a barrel in early trading.

Linda Piazza : 8/1/2005 8:42:45 AM

OEX update: Remember that long-term resistance band I've had marked on the OEX's chart, with the OEX in a broadening formation? That resistance band was the reason I wasn't suggesting participating in upside breakouts on the Keltner channel as I didn't think they were good bets. Although I'm having difficulty linking a chart this morning, the OEX turned down exactly from tests of that band on Thursday and Friday. I think it's possible that the OEX will follow the BIX's example, rolling down further into its broadening formation, perhaps at least to retest a line bisecting the formation, at about 565. The BIX has dropped further as of last week, dropping below the 200-sma that had roughly bisected its broadening formation. One difference is that the RLX's strength has been off-setting the BIX's weakness, so that although the OEX and BIX daily charts show some congruences, the OEX may not react as strongly as the BIX if the RLX continues to buffer losses. Currently, the OEX has set a downside Keltner target of 570.24, but since that target was set in the last minutes of trading, the OEX may bounce to retest the breakdown signal this morning. If so, bears want to see a line currently at 573.49 hold on 15-minute closes or one at 574.32 hold, if that one doesn't. Remember that bearish trades are currently against-intermediate-and-long-term-trend trades, until proven otherwise. The creation of this breakdown signal came along with a violation of a neckline of a H&S on the 15-minute chart, but one within a congestion zone rather than at the top of a steep climb. A retest of the neckline, now at about 574.25, might be expected this morning, but since the H&S is less trustworthy because of where it was formed, it cannot be presumed that the resistance will hold.

The OEX has remained within its current consolidation band on the daily chart, so no matter how steep the decline Friday, bears cannot assume that they're in the clear. If the OEX should get past the 575.25 level on a bounce this morning, that breakdown signal is soundly erased. What about a bullish play? Recent experience says any dip is a dip to buy, but crude has risen overnight, the dollar is dropping as the IMF warned again Friday about U.S. deficits, and U.S. futures did not participate wholeheartedly in overnight gains in other bourses. With a Keltner downside target set--but perhaps to be erased this morning, of course--and with those warning signals, I'd have to see how the markets set up this morning before I thought the shortest-term trend (down) had been erased and it was time to buy.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/1/2005 8:32:33 AM

Crude oil has dropped from its 61.225 high to 60.875 currently, +.30.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/1/2005 8:31:57 AM

Ten year notes have recovered slightly off their lows, with TNX up 1.4 bps at 4.3% at the cash open and testing last week's double top resistance.

Jane Fox : 8/1/2005 8:29:03 AM

Dateline CNN Saudi Arabia's King Fahd has died at age 82.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/1/2005 7:39:49 AM

Equities are up, ES trading 1240, NQ 1616, YM 10680 and QQQQ +.08 at 39.66. Gold is up 1.40 to 434.20, silver +.014 to 7.279, ten year notes are down 5/32 to 110 53/64 and crude oil is up .525 to 61.10.

We await the 10AM releases of Construction Spending, est. .5%, and the ISM Index, est. 54.1.

Linda Piazza : 8/1/2005 7:32:22 AM

Good morning. Investors in Nikkei stocks made a valiant attempt to drive that index above 12,000, but couldn't quite make that figure. The Nikkei did close in positive territory. Many other Asian markets were also positive despite rising crude costs. Most European markets are higher. Our futures are, too, although only modestly so. As of 7:14 EST, gold was up $1.30, and crude, up $0.51 to $61.08. News out of Saudi Arabia is that King Fahd has died, and has been succeeded by Crown Prince Abdullah, his half brother. After suffering a stroke in 1995, the crown price has served as the head of state with King Fahd the king in name only. Although previously a critic of his half brother's close ties with the U.S., the crown price has not made major policy shifts since assuming control of the country and is not expected to do so now. Still the news sent crude prices higher. More detail about Asian and European markets follows in succeeding paragraphs.

Before Japanese markets opened, articles speculated that the Nikkei could decline due to the possibility of continued rate hikes in the U.S., but that scenario wasn't to unfold. Despite crude prices that were climbing and a yen that was strengthening, the Nikkei opened a few points in the green and extended toward 12,000. It hit a high of 11,972.84 in the late-afternoon, before dropping about 25 points in the last few minutes of trading. It closed higher by 47.32 points or 0.40%, at 11,946.92.

Before the open, some had speculated that increased rate hikes in the U.S. could decrease the appetite for equities, including those from companies exporting to the U.S., but market watchers had also anticipated that many reporting companies would gain in early trading. Those companies included Nippon Electric Glass Co., an affiliate of NEC Corp., Orix, a non-bank financial, and NTT DoCoMo Inc., the second-biggest mobile-phone operator on the globe. Those earnings-related gains were to overcome worries engendered by the higher crude prices.

Economic numbers included June's overtime pay, rising 2.2% year over year, with total cash earnings gaining 1.1%, average monthly total hours worked rising 0.1%, and non-scheduled hours increasing 2.1%. Regular employees were higher by 0.6% year over year, and full-time workers, 1.0%, but part-time workers fell 0.2%. During the overnight session, Japan's Minister of Finance announced that it will begin collecting higher tariffs on 15 U.S. products as of September 1. This action is reportedly taken in response to the U.S.'s failure to repeal the Byrd Amendment. This amendment permits the government to collect anti-dumping levies and distribute the money collected to the affected industries. The World Trade Organization has declared this amendment to be illegal.

Many other Asian markets climbed. The Taiwan Weighted was an exception, losing 0.06%, but South Korea's Kospi gained 0.42%. Singapore's Straits Times rose 0.56%, and Hong Kong's Hang Seng climbed 0.66%. As I reported last week and as Jim expounded upon in his weekend wrap, opposing rumors have been circulating about CNOOC's bid for Unocal. Last night's version was that chances were increasing that the company would drop the bid for Unocal, although it hadn't ruled out a higher-priced offer. This information came from an article in the online edition of the Wall Street Journal. Another article speculated that CNOOC would make a decision within the next 48 hours as to whether it would proceed or withdraw its offer. China's Shanghai Composite gained 0.55%.

Most European markets gain. The ECB's first president, Trichet's predecessor Wim Duisenberg, died this weekend at 70. According to some reports, he was presumed drowned in his swimming pool after a possible cardiac problem. Economic releases included the Eurozone manufacturing PMI for July, climbing to 50.8 from June's 49.9. This number was the strongest since February, and was driven higher by gains in both output and demand, with the gains in demand raising concerns about inflation. Input prices rose to 51.3 from 50.00. Output prices climbed to 49.6 from its previous 48.6. Production and orders both gained, too. The employment component dropped for the 50th month in a row, one article noted, with that component dropping to 47.8 from the previous 48.2. Individual countries were reporting PMI numbers, too. Spain's rose above 50, to 50.9, showing some of the same patterns as the Eurozone's, with demand and orders picking up, with concerns about inflation rising, and with employment not changing much. Italy's increased to 50.8 from June's 49.4. France's number rose to 51.9 from June's 50.7, with that same pattern of increased demand and orders, but a troubling employment component. Germany's manufacturing PMI did not gain, but was flat and below 50, at 49.8. Employment was a drag against other more positive components. The stronger components that measure inflationary trends, coupled with the troubling employment component, were a disappointment. In the U.K., manufacturing PMI also disappointed, with the headline number actually declining to 49.2 from the previous 49.6, against expectations for a slight gain. A sharp decline in the new orders and employment components contributed to the fall.

In earliest trading, crude that had topped $61.00 per barrel helped oil majors but hurt airlines and auto manufacturers. Bank HSBC Holdings weighed in on the side of the equities helping the indices, with its post-earnings gains. This bank that is Europe's largest and the world's second largest reported profit that rose 9.1%. Dutch bank ABN Amro worked against the positive sentiment that HSBC might have engendered in the sector, though, dropping after it warned that the second half's net profit would be decline below the first half's. ABN Amro's profit gained 11% in the first half, but lower income and higher provisions would make the second half's profit less. Other companies reacting to news, broker activity or earnings included Swiss bank UBS, inching higher after noting that it may sell its position in a Swiss electricity company; AstraZeneca, also inching slightly higher although Morgan Stanley downgraded the company's shares; Volkswagen, declining although Deutsche Bank upgraded it to a hold rating from its previous sell rating; BT, declining after Deutsche Bank downgraded it to a hold rating; Euronext, gaining after reporting its busiest month in more than a year; Thales, gaining after a report that the U.K. will review the British defense industry; and BAE, also benefiting from its invitation to talk to the senior officials in the U.K.'s Defense Procurement Agency. Other companies reportedly asked to talk to the agency in what was supposedly a secret move to delve into the British defense industry included VT Group and Rolls-Royce, but neither of them was seeing an upside benefit as of yet.

As of 7:14 EST, the FTSE 100 was higher by 11.20 points or 0.21%, at 5,293.50. The CAC 40 was higher by 7.87 points or 0.18%, at 4,459.61. The DAX was higher by 18.11 points or 0.37%, at 4,904.61.

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