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OI Technical Staff : 8/2/2005 9:59:59 PM

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Jeff Bailey : 8/2/2005 9:45:40 PM

S&P Depository Receipts (SPY) $124.39 +0.59% ... recent short interest data from 07/15/05 has short interest surging to 113,174,838 from 06/15/05 short interest of 96,335,365. It's a record 12-month short interest! Who dat saying this market is too bullish?

Jeff Bailey : 8/2/2005 5:45:23 PM

Pivot Matrix for tomorrow at this Link ... Noting some BIX.X and VIX.X trade levels today and MONTHLY Pivot Levels. The BIX.X has done nothing in recent weeks and could be "key index" tomorrow.

Linda Piazza : 8/2/2005 5:34:37 PM

Network news now reports that passengers and crew were able to exit the plane that crashed in Toronto, although no confirmation yet on injuries. Great news!

Jeff Bailey : 8/2/2005 5:23:59 PM

Closing U.S. Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/2/2005 5:10:30 PM

Closing Internals found at this Link ... I can't say that I was overly impressed with today's 215 new highs at the NASDAQ, especially after the COMPX takes out bullish resistance trend (see Monday's Market Wrap) Link by "Little Moonbeam" Keene Little.

Jeff Bailey : 8/2/2005 4:54:50 PM

Air France (AKH) $16.78 +2.00% Link ...

Linda Piazza : 8/2/2005 4:45:36 PM

Network news is reporting an aircraft crash in Toronto as an aircraft, possibly an Air France flight, skidded off the runway as it tried to land. They're showing live footage, so this is more than just rumor, but the type of aircraft is not confirmed.

Jeff Bailey : 8/2/2005 4:43:29 PM

Thanks Mark! "From Russia with Love!" I didn't see that coming.

Mark Davis : 8/2/2005 4:34:10 PM

Jeff, congrats on your Google Sept $310 calls, up almost 30% since you entered earlier today. Nice trade!

Jeff Bailey : 8/2/2005 4:13:10 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles found at this Link

Today's Activity ... Swing traded long one (1) Google GOOG Sep. $310 Call (GGD-IB) at the offer of $7.20. Stop if stock trades $289, targeting $315.00.

Raised bullish stops on both UNP and WLP positions.

Jeff Bailey : 8/2/2005 4:03:47 PM

Sell Program Premium ... DIA $106.74, SPY $124.37

Linda Piazza : 8/2/2005 4:02:23 PM

The SOX has next daily Keltner resistance at 490.54. The SOX usually does adhere to its daily Keltner signals fairly well, with some breaches of lines for a day or two usually soon reversed. It was the breach of the middle-sized Keltner channel's upper resistance back in early July for more than a day or two that signaled that the SOX might climb further. Now it faces that upper resistance a few points ahead. The last time the SOX stayed above that particular channel line on daily closes was in November, 2003. It can, of course, challenge it, then pull back and challenge again, nudging it higher each time.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/2/2005 4:01:31 PM

QQQQ edges back from 40.10 again. The sideways action at the top of a move would look like a bull flag, except for the toppy 30 min cycle noted earlier. A sideways move from here would look like distribution within the intraday cycles. But if bulls can take out the highs, then we'll be seeing an intraday upside trending move as the daily cycle turns back up to overpower those shorter cycles.

Linda Piazza : 8/2/2005 3:55:19 PM

OEX dropping from its latest test of 15-minute Keltner resistance at a line currently at 577.31, but not dropping far yet. It's at 576.92 as I type.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/2/2005 3:50:15 PM

NQ to a session high here at 1635, QQQQ 4 cents away at 40.08.

Linda Piazza : 8/2/2005 3:47:52 PM

OEX rising to test the 577.25 top of the Keltner channel that's been mostly containing it over the last several weeks, except for a few aborted breakouts to the upside and downside. Looks as if the OEX might be ready for a breakout or a rollover tomorrow morning, depending on today's close, of course.

Linda Piazza : 8/2/2005 3:46:17 PM

SOX testing previous 468.09 high of the day, with the SOX at 486.04 as I type.

Linda Piazza : 8/2/2005 3:45:35 PM

RUT moving up to retest the 2:50 high of . . . just bested it as I typed, hitting a new HOD. RUT about to test a rising trendline off the 10:00 high on 7/29 and the 10:00 high today, with that trendline at about 688.10 or so, and with the RUT currently at 687.87.

Linda Piazza : 8/2/2005 3:39:33 PM

MOC orders about to hit. Wish I had that expensive source that Jim used to have to see what those MOC orders look like.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/2/2005 3:39:14 PM

Session high for Sept. crude at 61.925 in the evening session, QQQQ retesting 40.10 range resistance here with volume breadth holding at +2.41:1 on the Nasdaq. The short cycle indicators have turned back up after their tractionless downphase. Link

Linda Piazza : 8/2/2005 3:36:12 PM

OEX trying to break to the upside from that presumed diamond shape on its 15-minute chart, with such formations at the top of climbs usually bearish, but so what else is new with an upside break out of a bearish formation? Be careful, as the OEX rises toward 576.89 and then 577.17 Keltner reistance, perhaps into a test of the earlier HOD. Some signs that the rise is not yet endorsed whole-heartedly, so one of those may hold.

Linda Piazza : 8/2/2005 3:30:06 PM

Since popping above the top of a bull-flag-like formation on its 5-minute chart, the SOX ran up a point or so and then has since been sliding down along that former descending trendline. The slide has allowed possible Keltenr resistance to snake above it, and even firm up a bit on the five-minute chart, at about 485.66 and maybe on the 15-minute one, at 485.45-485.96. It hasn't done anything yet on a five-, fifteen-, or 30-minute Keltner chart to erase the possibility that it won't go on challenging upside resistance, though.

Linda Piazza : 8/2/2005 3:26:33 PM

The OEX is chopping around within what may be a diamond shape on its 15-minute chart. Fifteen-minute candles have shadows going every which way, so I'm not even going to venture a guess as to which way that formation will break.

Jeff Bailey : 8/2/2005 3:23:58 PM

Google Inc. (GOOG) $298.13 +2.20% Link ... probes its 21-day SMA from underneath.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/2/2005 3:20:26 PM

The most recent put to call reading has the CBOE total put to call ratio breaking back below 1.0 (to .99) for the first time since the 10AM reading today. Volatility is lower today but still higher than the recent lows, VXO at 11.02 here and VXN at 13.87. Volume breadth hasn't flinched once today, with the number of shares more than doubling declining on the Nasdaq and NYSE for most of the day. It all looks bullish, on balance, and while the intraday cycles will be due for downphases over the coming hours, price needs to decline for those signals to build, which hasn't come close to occurring over the past ...almost 4 hours.

Jeff Bailey : 8/2/2005 3:19:31 PM

Google Inc. (GOOG) $297.10 +1.89% ... spikes to high of the day after article in The Moscow Times claims the Internet search giant is about to set up shop in St. Petersberg.

"We spoke with Google representatives, and they seemed very keen on the idea," said Russia's Deputy IT and Communications Minister Dmitry Milovantsev.

Linda Piazza : 8/2/2005 3:12:20 PM

OEX descending trendline off the day's high is at about 576.50, with the OEX at 576.25.

Jeff Bailey : 8/2/2005 3:10:13 PM

03:00 Internals found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 8/2/2005 3:08:08 PM

Session high for MSFT at 26.70, GE 2 cents off its low, QQQQ back above 40 perfectly positioned at the midpoint of its short cycle, 30 min and 60 min channels, all of which are drifting sideways: Link

Linda Piazza : 8/2/2005 3:03:44 PM

Speaking of bearish rising wedges, the RUT has a whopper of one that's been forming since early July, visible on the 240-minute chart. I think it's trying to break out to the upside today, depending on how the upper trendline is drawn. It appears to cross at about 686.60-686.80, with the RUT currently at 687.07. Is this just another one of those moves that will force us to redraw trendlines, a genuine breakout, or a fake-out move that will now see the RUT turn around and fall through lower support, perhaps at about 676.50 currently? Waiting to see, but I'll want to see it before I believe it, and then see the former support retested and serve as resistance.

Jeff Bailey : 8/2/2005 3:03:21 PM

03:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 8/2/2005 3:02:59 PM

Session low for GE at 34.20.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/2/2005 3:02:00 PM

Ten year note yields finished +1.7 bps at 4.336%, printing a doji star above 4.3% support: Link

Linda Piazza : 8/2/2005 2:57:45 PM

OEX headed back for another neckline test. If the bears aren't able to drive the OEX below the neckline this time and keep it there, with the neckline at about 575.50-575.57, then I think that H&S on the 5- and 15-minute chart might no longer be valid.

Linda Piazza : 8/2/2005 2:54:49 PM

TRAN still hasn't been able to breakout. At 3811.65 as I type. Bulls want to see it hold above the 15-minute 100/130-ema's at 3800.09 and 3793.92, respectively.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/2/2005 2:53:43 PM

Stepping away for 5 minutes. Hopefully that will get it moving.

Jeff Bailey : 8/2/2005 2:54:56 PM

Microsoft (MSFT) $26.60 +2.58% Link ... where's Cramer?

Linda Piazza : 8/2/2005 2:53:02 PM

OEX and SPX have diamond-shaped patterns at the top of today's climb. Let's see: that means it's breaking to the upside, right? H&S's break to the upside. Bearish wedges break to the upside. Everything breaks to the upside. I'm not being serious, but until we see this kind of thing changing, the bulls still have the upper hand.

Linda Piazza : 8/2/2005 2:50:46 PM

Some of that late-day push is going to the RUT. At 687.69 as I type.

Linda Piazza : 8/2/2005 2:45:49 PM

Using the SMH as a proxy for the SOX so that I can check volume patterns (SMH and SOX components are not the same, but it's the best proxy I know for this purpose), I see that the volume on the push to the new HOD was far less than this morning's push. That won't mean anything to shorts being stopped out of their positions if the SOX keeps climbing anyway, but there's that divergence and price/RSI bearish divergence, too.

Linda Piazza : 8/2/2005 2:43:11 PM

Just as I warned might happen earlier, the OEX minimally confirmed that H&S on its five-minute chart and then shot up. (See my 1:49 post for the warning.) It didn't shoot high enough to completely invalidate the formation, however, not achieving a new HOD, at least not yet. It's back testing that neckline, but I think this action forces us to angle that neckline down into a horizontal one at about 575.57.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/2/2005 2:42:06 PM

The 30 min cycle is buried in overbought territory, the 60 min cycle still rising and approaching it. Until those cycles turn down, which would require a decline in price, the intraday bias remains to the upside. The intraday cycle channels are all drifting sideways, but that's not enough to turn the indicators down- QQQQ bears need a minimum of a move below 39.95 to stop the upphases, while a move below 39.90, where the 30 and 60 min channel bottoms are aligned, should generate the first downtick in the 30 min cycle.

Linda Piazza : 8/2/2005 2:34:16 PM

After breaking out of the bull flag pullback, the SOX moved to a new HOD, and ha now dropped back to retest the flag's upper trendline, to see if it holds as support. That's at about 481.80, and it's being tested as I type, with the SOX easing just a little under that line. SOX bulls want to see the SOX find support here. They don't want to see a 15-minute close beneath the Keltner line currently at 483.59 as that confirms an undoing of the breakout signal on the 15-minute chart. SOX at 484.42 as I type, with about 12 minutes to go in this 15-minute period.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/2/2005 2:33:59 PM

Sept. crude oil finished +.30 at 61.875, a nickel off its high. Link

Jonathan Levinson : 8/2/2005 2:24:11 PM

GE bounces from triple bottom support above 34.22, testing descending resistance just below the daily pivot at 34.34. Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/2/2005 2:19:45 PM

Research in Motion (RIMM) $72.60 +3.24% ... all over the map today ($68.19-$73.90) after the company said late this morning that the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit revised an earlier patent ruling. The Court of Appeals threw out a district court ruling that RIMM had infringed on six business method patent claims held by privately held NTP. The decision means that instead of facing 11 affirmed claims of infringement, as was the case after the court's earlier ruling, RIMM is now facing just seven.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/2/2005 2:14:39 PM

QQQQ has just gapped up above 40.08 on the 100 tick chart, testing 40.10 and testing, if not invalidating, the sloppy flat head and shoulders pattern noted earlier. A quick sell to 40.02 as I typed is reversing back up to 40.10: Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/2/2005 2:11:41 PM

02:00 Internals found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 8/2/2005 2:05:44 PM

SOX coming up to test the upper trendline of what may be a bull flag pulling back from 485-490 resistance. Trendline at about 484.90, previous HOD at 485.63, and SOX currently at 484.72, testing five-minute, 15-minute, and 30-minute Keltner resistance, with further 30-minute up at 486.05.

Jeff Bailey : 8/2/2005 2:03:42 PM

02:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 8/2/2005 2:00:54 PM

Session high for Sept. crude oil, +.225 at 61.80.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/2/2005 1:59:40 PM

Session low for GE at 34.24, with NYSE volume breadth down to +1.84:1 and the TRIN up to .91. QQQQ continues to hold 40.00 support, though, with Nasdaq volume breadth +2.26:1 here. Still no real traction from the short cycle downphase.

Linda Piazza : 8/2/2005 1:59:32 PM

TRAN dropping away from its test of the 3820-3822 area. At 3813.13 now, and back to test the neckline of that roughly formed continuation-form inverse H&S.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/2/2005 1:55:33 PM

COMP chart with 2215 fib resistance (projection April/June) AND very nice RSI bearish divergence on the daily. Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/2/2005 1:52:39 PM

Dynegy (DYN) $5.12 -7.41% ... announced that it has entered into a definitive agreement for the sale of its Midstream natural gas business to Targa Resources, a Houston-based independent company affiliated with private equity firm Warburg Pincus. Dynegy expects to receive $2.475 billion in cash, subject to working capital adjustments, of which $2.35 billion will be paid upon closing of the deal.

Linda Piazza : 8/2/2005 1:49:21 PM

OEX dipped down to retest the neckline of that H&S I just mentioned. It's a nicely formed one on the five-minute chart, but that doesn't mean it will confirm or meet its downside target. In this environment, bears have to be congratulated for even getting this far, into forming the thing! It has not been confirmed by a drop below 575.80. Bears should be aware of a tendency lately to test or even barely confirm such formations, only to have prices then shoot higher and invalidate them. Particularly important to watch during this prime stop-running time of day. OEX at 575.90.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/2/2005 1:48:26 PM

The wavelet cycle is rolling over from a lower price high, and the short cycle indicators never turned up on this bounce- the lower cycle-within-a-cycle is a head-and-shoulders type setup, though with all of a 12-17 cent range and a sloppy pattern in this case. Look for a burst of volume on a break of either 40.00 or 39.95 to suggest a neckline break. A break above 40.08 should be enough to invalidate the pattern as a right shoulder violation. Link

Linda Piazza : 8/2/2005 1:44:49 PM

The OEX may be attempting to push back up to retest the day's high. If so, bears will want to see a lower HOD, stopped by 15-minute Keltner resistance at 576.93 (on closes), and bulls will want to see a new HOD. Note a potential H&S visible on the five-minute chart, head at today's high, neckline at about 575.75, appropriate right-shoulder at about 576.25-576.70. OEX at 476.28 as I type.

Jeff Bailey : 8/2/2005 1:42:39 PM

Dow Transports (TRAN) 3,820 +0.30% ... found morning support where a sector bulls would have wanted to see. Needs to find a gear above that right shoulder of 2,825. Morning action might also hint that some "doji bears" from 07/22/05 willing to close out now, ask directions later. Chart we've been following/trading at this Link

Linda Piazza : 8/2/2005 1:42:04 PM

SOX's 30-minute Keltner resistance now at 484.90 and then at 485.99 on 30-minute closes.

Linda Piazza : 8/2/2005 1:39:10 PM

Stop-running time of day approaching fast.

Linda Piazza : 8/2/2005 1:36:37 PM

Back for a second. The TRAN has a sort of rough inverse H&S on its five-minute chart, with the head formed from today's early morning extreme dip. It looks as if the neckline might be at about 3815.00, with the TRAN having been retesting that neckline over the last hour or so and now trying to rise from that neckline again. This is another of those continuation-form inverse H&S's, and so perhaps not very trustworthy, but the TRAN also has a cup-and-handle formation on its 60-minute chart, with this inverse H&S part of the handle, and cup-and-handle formations are valid continuation formations. This one can still be invalidated and has not been confirmed. Confirmation would come on a push above the 7/28 high of 3821.83, perhaps, but would soon meet resistance from December's high of 3823.96 all the way up to the March high of 3889.97. The TRAN's current upside Keltner target is 3957.47, but there's been some Keltner-style bearish divergence on that daily chart, and I'm not sure that the upside target would be likely to be touched. The TRAN has shown strong conformation to the 2-hour chart, though, with next resistance there at 3827.36 and then at 3855.23. The TRAN needs a 2-hour close below a Keltner line currently a 3784.37 before it does anything to moderate its rally off the June 27 low. What I'm saying here is that the TRAN is right now facing strong resistance, but that if it can get past that resistance, it might run up a bit, but that the runup target of 3900-3950 might not be completely trustworthy.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/2/2005 1:30:21 PM

GE is underperforming the indices again, up only 3 cents at 34.28.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/2/2005 1:29:56 PM

QQQQ has bounced from a higher low on this decline, but other than the fickle wavelet oscillator, the short cycle indicators continue to point lower. Once again, it's just noise until 40.00 breaks, and the prior low at 39.95 is the first test for any pause in the buying. Volume breadth remains firm but not extreme.

Jeff Bailey : 8/2/2005 1:28:45 PM

Dorsey/Wright's Internet Bullish % (BPINET) components within their DAILY Distribution found at this Link ... WEEKLY Distribution posted at 12:58:54.

Jeff Bailey : 8/2/2005 1:20:41 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/2/2005 1:15:05 PM

Bullish swing trade raise stop alert ... with WellPoint (WLP) $73.12 +0.48%, let's bring a stop on the WLP Sep. $72.50 Calls (WLP-IV) up to $1.50.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/2/2005 1:14:39 PM




Jonathan Levinson : 8/2/2005 1:13:45 PM

Today's 15B 28-day bill auction set a high-rate of 3.285% and a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.85, with foreign central banks taking 4.101B of the total. This was the strongest demand since the July 7th auction, though the high-rate set a new high for the year.

Jeff Bailey : 8/2/2005 1:13:42 PM

Bullish swing trade raise stop alert with Union Pacific (UNP) $71.16 +0.36%, let's bring a stop on the remaining calls UNP Nov. $70 Calls (UNP-KN) up to $2.40.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/2/2005 1:10:55 PM

Volume breadth +2.18:1 on the NYSE and +2.44:1 on the Nasdaq, with QQQQ volume now just 10M shares away from yesterday's light 59.9M share total.

Jeff Bailey : 8/2/2005 1:10:35 PM

01:00 Internals found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 8/2/2005 1:10:34 PM

Checking back in again. The OEX turned down from upper channel resistance and is currently below the Keltner line at 576.12, but the 15-minute period still has about 2/3 of its time left to elapse. This is the reason that I was suggesting that traders not act on the OEX breakout signal. A retest of this morning's high, with a lower high, would be a nice confirmation of the downturn, but be aware that bearish plays remain countertrend ones. The OEX has fairly reliably been cycling from one side to the other of that Keltner channel now from 573.19 to 576.88, but you have to get in a play at the boundary and get out at the next one to benefit from such a tight range, hoping all the time that this isn't the one time there will be a breakout. Watch the SOX, as its pullback off the day's high could still be a bull flag.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/2/2005 1:02:44 PM

Another sideways decline off the highs, with the short cycle indicators edging lower. Bears need to break the previous low at 39.95 to suggest that this is more than another corrective downphase. Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/2/2005 1:02:05 PM

01:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/2/2005 12:58:54 PM

Dorsey/Wright's Internet Bullish % (BPINET) components within their WEEKLY Distribution found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/2/2005 12:47:52 PM

Swing trade bullish call entry point alert ... GOOG $295.00. Going long one (1) of the Sep. $310.00 Calls (GGD-IB) at the offer of $7.20

Jeff Bailey : 8/2/2005 12:46:13 PM

CBOE Internet Index (INX.X) 204.31 +1.07% ... here's my bar chart with pattern observation at this Link with "head" at roughly 190, neckline 204.50. Gives potential objective to 220.

Linda Piazza : 8/2/2005 12:38:40 PM

Checking back in for a few minutes, I see that the OEX did create a new breakout signal, but, true to form lately, immediately erased it on the next 15-minute signal. It's climbing the underside of the breakout level, now at 576.91 on 15-minute closes. That's still a climb, but it's not one that's showing a lot of strength, so make up your mind as to whether you want to participate or not. I don't. OEX needs a strong downdraft and then a failed retest before anyone even begins to think bearish play, though. One key may be to watch the BIX, trying to climg into a retest of its 200-sma from the underside. So far, BIX strength isn't convincing. The RLX is climbing, too, but it's climb looks choppy and corrective so far.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/2/2005 12:41:11 PM

There's a slight bearish divergence on the short cycle oscillators against the higher QQQQ high to 40.12, but above the 40 level, I'm inclined to treat it with a grain of salt. There are currently 2.54 advancing Nasdaq shares for each declining, and volume is heavier than we've seen by midday for the past several sessions.

Tab Gilles : 8/2/2005 12:32:38 PM

FYI Link

Jonathan Levinson : 8/2/2005 12:28:44 PM

Session low for Oct. gold here at 433.90, QQQQ 4 cents off the 40.12 high. Crude oil is up to a .175 loss at 61.40, and TNX is back up +1.6 bps to 4.335%.

Jeff Bailey : 8/2/2005 12:26:36 PM

Collegiate Pacific (BOO) $12.00 +0.84% Link ... "X" gets the square on this thinly traded maker of althletic apparel.

Jeff Bailey : 8/2/2005 12:24:22 PM

Google (GOOG) $294.80 +1.09% Link ... just off session high of $294.89

Jeff Bailey : 8/2/2005 12:23:08 PM

Yahoo! Inc. (YHOO) $34.18 +2.55% Link ... back to challenge its 07/20 gap lower high of $34.35. Failed to break above on recent 07/27 move.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/2/2005 12:21:24 PM

Session high for QQQQ 40.12, Nasdaq volume breadth +2.46:1, 30 min channel resistance up to 40.17.

Jeff Bailey : 8/2/2005 12:20:14 PM

Ford Motor (F) $10.95 +1.01% ... July sales up 29%, sets modern day record. July truck sales up 33.6% (270,405 vs. 202,423), car sales 96,143 vs. 82,781. Fleet sales down 20%.

U.S. sales totaled 366,548 vs. year-ago 285,204.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/2/2005 12:12:00 PM

QQQQ is back to to 40.00 after tagging the high on a spike. 72 SMA is up to 39.97, below which the stalled 30 min channel takes on a bearish bias- but a move below daily R1 at 39.85 will be required to kick off the next downphase. Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/2/2005 12:07:43 PM

12:00 Internals found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 8/2/2005 12:03:13 PM

The sustained high put to call readings, with the CBOE total put to call ratios holding for the past hour and a half above 1.29, could mean several things- but generally, sustained low readings accompany market tops and sustained high readings market bottoms. Volatility is lower, suggesting puts being traded at lower prices. Is it retail traders buying puts from panicked retail shorts? Or institutional traders selling puts to retail buyers? This is a secondary indicaor, subject to different interpretation, but the high levels here are noteworthy.

Jeff Bailey : 8/2/2005 12:01:43 PM

12:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 8/2/2005 11:56:32 AM

Volume breadth is +2.54:1 on the NYSE and +2.58:1 on the Nasdaq, the TRINQ at the low end of neutral at .5, TRIN neutral at .79.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/2/2005 11:55:43 AM

Ten year notes are back to negative, TNX up 1.2 bps at 4.331%, ZN -1/16 at 111 5/16.

Linda Piazza : 8/2/2005 11:54:16 AM

Checking in a last time before leaving again for a while. The OEX has not even pulled back to the 575.65 first Keltner support, but instead has gone on challenging the upside 15-minute Keltner resitance, now at 576.60 on 15-minute closes. If there should be a breakout on this chart, the upside target would be 579.22, but I have the same reservations that I've had for a while about such upside breakouts. There's strong resistance between the current OEX level and that 579.22 upside target, and upside breakouts haven't tended to meet their upside targets on the OEX. Perhaps this will be the time that target will be met, but I'd be really hesitant here. In fact, if I could hang around all day, I still wouldn't be trying it. The generals here just haven't followed other indices higher lately with any reliability.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/2/2005 11:53:02 AM

Back to find QQQQ bouncing from a low of 39.95 (with a bad tick to 39.85). Link 30 min channel resistance has risen to 40.15 if the day high can be broken. A lower high would confirm that the flattening of the 30 min channel here is indeed a top- but so far, the overdue short cycle downphase has been corrective and weak, more like the bulls taking a breather than actual selling coming in.

Jeff Bailey : 8/2/2005 11:45:29 AM

CBOE Internet Index (INX.X) 204.13 +0.99% ... looks ready to challenge its June and 07/19/05 highs. Nasty looking reverse head/shoulder on 60-minute interval chart with neckline at, at, at.... 204.50.

Jeff Bailey : 8/2/2005 11:41:54 AM

Bullish swing trade call option setup alert ... Let's go long one (1) of the Google, Inc. GOOG Sep. $310 Calls (GGD-IB) at the offer (currently $6.60 x $6.80) should GOOG trade $295.00. Stop would go 289, target $315.

GOOG $294.03 +0.82%

Jeff Bailey : 8/2/2005 11:36:49 AM

Boy ... those Google (GOOG) $293.72 +0.72% call options look expensive.

Linda Piazza : 8/2/2005 11:30:53 AM

Yesterday, I mentioned that SOX bulls had probably spotted a continuation-form inverse H&S on the SOX's 15-minute chart. I mentioned that although we can't trust these to confirm or meet their upside targets if confirmed, but that they were useful to watch. This morning, the SOX gapped above the neckline of this formation. It's a rough formation, but if it were valid and could be trusted to meet its upside target, that target would be at about 490. I don't post this so you can count on the SOX reaching 490, but rather to say that if the SOX should push toward 490, SOX bulls should be considering how they'll protect profits. This 485-490 region is one of resistance, so that emphasizes the fact that you may not be able to count on that upside target being met. There was a breakout on the SOX's 15-minute chart, but the SOX challenged 30-minute Keltner resistance, now at 485.52, but still rising. There's some Keltner-style bearish divergence on that chart, but we know that's not always useful in a trending market. Until and unless the SOX closes a 30-minute period back below 481.20 or maybe even 479.58, it might go on challenging that upside resistance. It hit next daily Keltner resistance at 484.85, but there's another upside target at 490.44, and the SOX might go on challenging that resistance, too, until there's a daily close beneath 471.66. So the summation of this is that the SOX is moving into a resistance band, with a possibility that it could be stopped here or perhaps nearer 490, with the SOX needing a 30-minute close beneath 479.58 to suggest that it's even beginning to tire and a daily close beneath 471.66 before that suggestion is taken more seriously.

Jeff Bailey : 8/2/2005 11:11:53 AM

11:00 Internals found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 8/2/2005 11:11:04 AM

Stepping away for 30 minutes here.

Linda Piazza : 8/2/2005 11:09:40 AM

I'm back for a few minutes, but can't stay. My granddaughter is on her way to a specialized children's hospital, so I'll be in and out today. The OEX approached the upper channel line on that 15-minute Keltner line that has contained the OEX for several weeks now. That's now at 576.47 on 15-minute closes, and the OEX has since turned down. Next support at 575.18 on 15-minute closes.

Jeff Bailey : 8/2/2005 11:05:09 AM

11:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/2/2005 11:02:37 AM

Checkpoint Systems (CKP) $21.42 +22.44% Link ... nice pop from 200-day SMA after the maker of electronic surveillance products used by retailers said it swung to a $9.5 million profit in the second quarter. Checkpoint Systems reported net income of $0.25 a share vs. a loss of $6.4 million, or $0.17 a share in the same period last year. Consensus was for $0.25 a share.

Looking ahead, Checkpoint Systems said it plans to continue reorganizing efforts in Europe by cutting costs and improving its sales productivity and overhead structure. The company said it expects to record restructuring charges over the next year or more, including between $7 million and $10 million in the third quarter. Checkpoint said it expects the restructuring to save the company from $8 million to $10 million per year, with most of the savings realized in 2006.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/2/2005 10:54:54 AM

QQQQ retreats from its 40.10 high, testing daily R2 at 40.00. Should this level fail, there's light confluence support every five cents until 39.83-.85, which currently coincides with the 72 SMA at stronger confluence support. However, volume is declining on what appears so far to be a corrective pullback. Until those trending short cycle indicators begin their overdue downphase, the benefit of the doubt goes to the bulls. A break of 39.90 should be enough to do it. Link

Jonathan Levinson : 8/2/2005 10:52:03 AM

Sept. crude oil is holding a .20 loss at 61.375, trading a narrow range within yesterday's range: Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/2/2005 10:50:44 AM

Tropical Storm / Hurricane season ... U.S. forecasters now see 18-21 Tropical storms vs. previous 12-15 estimate.

Jeff Bailey : 8/2/2005 10:49:13 AM

KCS Energy (KCS) $20.05 +1.00% Link ... announcing quarterly results and saying gross production was up 29%, and production, net of delivery obligations under the production payment sold in 2001, was up 37% compared to last year's quarter. The increase in production, coupled with a 19% increase in oil and gas prices, led to record cash flow before net changes in assets and liabilities of $52.8 million, an 80% increase over last year's quarter. For the six months ended June 30, 2005, cash flow before net changes in assets and liabilities was $99.1 million, a 68% increase over the six months ended June 30, 2004.

Quarterly EPS came in at $0.42 (diluted) vs. consensus of $0.39.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/2/2005 10:45:30 AM

QQQQ breaks the previous spike high and daily R2 at 40.00, violating upper 30 min channel resistance. This is where bears usually push back, except in the strongest of trending moves. Link At current levels, the daily cycle is in a position to whipsaw to the upside- but there remain several hours until the daily print becomes final. Volume is heavier than usual at 29.4M QQQQ shares today, already half of yesterday's volume.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/2/2005 10:39:50 AM

Session high for QQQQ at 39.99, with ten year note yields pulling up to a 0.7 bp loss at 4.312%. Crude oil is down .375 at 61.20, off a low of 60.875.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/2/2005 10:39:02 AM



Jeff Bailey : 8/2/2005 10:38:35 AM

Cisco Systems (CSCO) $19.44 +0.93% ... just above its WEEKLY R1 ($19.41) with WEEKLY R2 just ahead at $19.70.

Jeff Bailey : 8/2/2005 10:37:51 AM

QQQQ $39.96 +0.78% ... edges above WEEKLY R1.

Jeff Bailey : 8/2/2005 10:37:24 AM

Semiconductor Index (SOX.X) 484.81 +2.19% ... gets the trade at WEEKLY R2.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/2/2005 10:35:50 AM

QQQQ tests last Thursday/Friday's highs to 40.00 while the SOX makes new highs for the move at 484. Volume breadth is firm on both exchanges, +2.6:1 on the NYSE and +2.63:1 on the Nasdaq. The realtime total put to call ratio is up to 1.33, showing a big jump.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/2/2005 10:26:26 AM

QQQQ is back up to the highs after a shallow pullback, the short cycle indicators toppy and on the verge of trending. Daily R1 continues to exert magnetic pull on the price, but a break of the double intraday top here will suggest a test of rising 30 min resistance at 39.93. Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/2/2005 10:23:05 AM

VIX.X 11.92 -1.32% ... I'm showing intra-day high of 12.01 and DAILY Pivot, not 18.51 per U.S. Market Watch.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/2/2005 10:21:41 AM




Jonathan Levinson : 8/2/2005 10:21:15 AM

Sept. crude oil -.125 at 61.45.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/2/2005 10:20:40 AM

Ten year notes are holding their gains, with TNX down to a 1.3 bp loss at 4.306%. Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/2/2005 10:20:06 AM

Current OPEN MM Profiles found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 8/2/2005 10:15:19 AM

QQQQ's short cycle is curling in overbought territory, and a break below 39.80 should be enough to kick off a new downphase. However, bears need a move below 39.75, the current 72 SMA, to stall the 30 min cycle upphase. Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/2/2005 10:13:39 AM

Yesterday's Internals found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 8/2/2005 10:13:07 AM

The Fed announced a 7B overnight repo, for a net drain of 3.5B against the 10.5B expiring.

Jeff Bailey : 8/2/2005 10:12:18 AM

Buy Program Premium ... SPX 1,242.30, DIA $106.83, QQQQ $39.86

Jonathan Levinson : 8/2/2005 10:12:01 AM

Volume breadth +2.68:1 on the NYSE and +2.61:1 on the Nasdaq, TRIN and TRINQ both neutral at .9 and .68.

Jeff Bailey : 8/2/2005 10:11:43 AM

Amazon.com (AMZN) $46.33 +3.11% ... notable new 52-weeker at the NASDAQ.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/2/2005 10:09:34 AM

Ten year notes and equity indices all above yesterday's highs, with the SOX leading the chart, having gapped above yesterday's high and having tested daily R2 at 481.75.

Jeff Bailey : 8/2/2005 10:08:09 AM

10:00 Internals found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 8/2/2005 10:07:08 AM

QQQQ retests the session high at 39.80: Link

Jonathan Levinson : 8/2/2005 10:06:03 AM

VXO 11.07, VXN 14.11

Jonathan Levinson : 8/2/2005 10:05:08 AM

Session high for ES and YM futures, QQQQ at 39.78 with ten year notes at session highs, +7/64 at 110 51/64. TNX is down 0.1 bps at 4.318%.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/2/2005 10:03:18 AM

Factory orders 1% vs. 1% exp., prior revised up from 2.9% to 3.6%.

Jeff Bailey : 8/2/2005 10:02:17 AM

10:00 Market Watch at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 8/2/2005 10:01:14 AM

No word from the Fed yet as to its open market ops. If it takes no action today, the result will be a net 10.5B drain.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/2/2005 10:00:42 AM




Jonathan Levinson : 8/2/2005 9:57:40 AM

QQQQ failed at a lower high of 39.80, after yesterday's lower high at 39.83. But the short cycle indicators are still rising, and 30 min channel resistance is up to daily R1 at 39.86. Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/2/2005 9:53:57 AM

Hanover Compressor (HC) $14.72 +0.47% Link ...

Jeff Bailey : 8/2/2005 9:53:02 AM

Oil Service Index (OSX.X) 166.15 +1.60% Link ... another all-time high!

Jonathan Levinson : 8/2/2005 9:52:47 AM

Awaiting Factory Orders at 10AM, est. 1%, as well as the Fed's decision as to its expiring 10.5B repos this morning.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/2/2005 9:42:18 AM

Volume is declining on the rise here, but the short cycle indicators have turned up, with short cycle channel support rising to the daily pivot at 39.68. Overall volume is light, as usual, 4.6M QQQQs traded so far.

Jeff Bailey : 8/2/2005 9:45:36 AM

WellPoint (WLP) $72.80 +0.04% Link ... matched yesterday's all-time high of $73.10 in opening ticks.

Jeff Bailey : 8/2/2005 9:40:30 AM

HMO Index (HMO.X) 1,511.60 +0.41% Link ... battled its rising 50-day SMA yesterday afternoon. Edges above in early morning trade.

Jeff Bailey : 8/2/2005 9:38:23 AM

Semiconductor Index (SOX.X) 479.90 +1.16% ... tentative new 52-weeker in opening ticks.

Jeff Bailey : 8/2/2005 9:37:10 AM

Dow Jones U.S. Steel Index (DJUSST) 162.05 +1.51% Link ... strong move early and breaks firmly above 50% retracement of March '05 to May '05 lows.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/2/2005 9:35:52 AM

QQQQ prints a high at 39.74 here, testing confluence at the short cycle channel top at 39.75, above which yesterday's highs to 39.83 come into view: Link

Jonathan Levinson : 8/2/2005 9:33:22 AM

Volume breadth at the open is +1.77:1 on the NYSE, +1.98:1 on the Nasdaq, TRIN 1.02 and TRINQ .63.

Jeff Bailey : 8/2/2005 9:32:56 AM

Kinross Gold (KGC) $5.69 +0.17% Link ... price target cut at Haywood to C$9.50 from C$12.

Jeff Bailey : 8/2/2005 9:31:08 AM

ADA-ES (ADES) $17.58 +0.11% Link ... Company saying it has been awarded a contract to provide mercury control system for new power plant. Deal valued above $1 million.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/2/2005 9:28:03 AM

As noted by Linda and Jane, Chinese government-controlled CNOOC has officially abandoned its 18.5B cash bid for UCL. CNOOC cited US political opposition to the deal, and noted that its bid amounted to a 1B premium over CVX's offer for UCL.

Jeff Bailey : 8/2/2005 9:21:25 AM

IAC/Interactive (IACI) $26.77 Link ... higher at $27.70 after posting Q2 net income of $618.1 million, or $0.89 a share, which was up from $69.9 million, or $0.09 a share in the same period last year. On an adjusted basis, net income rose 23% to $214.9 million, or $0.30 a share, which beat the consensus of $0.25 a share. Revenue rose to $1.96 billion from $1.46 billion last year.

Jeff Bailey : 8/2/2005 9:17:13 AM

Sirius Satellite Radio (SIRI) $6.95 Link ... #2 most active in pre-market trade after the company said its Q2 loss widened to $177.5 million, or $0.13 per share, from $136.8 million, or $0.11 per share in the same period last year. Sirius said sales nearly quadrupled to $52.2 million after adding 365,931 subscribers in the quarter.

Analysts were looking for a loss of $0.15 per share on sales of $50.1 million.

Sirius estimates that it will have 3 million subscribers by the end of the year and puts full-year sales at $225 million, up from its prior estimate of $215 million. The company added that it plans a $400 million bond sale.

Jeff Bailey : 8/2/2005 9:08:21 AM

Tyco (TYC) $30.82 Link ... lower at $28.02 pre-market and atop this morning's most active list after the conglomerate posted net income of $1.19 billion, or $0.56 per share, on revenue of $10.56 billion. Consensus was for a profit of $0.49 per share.

Looking ahead, the company expects fourth-quarter earnings from continuing operations, excluding special items, of 45 to 47 cents per share, which was below the current consensus analyst estimate of 52 cents per share. Tyco said Q4 operating profit will fall below Q3 levels due to lower operating income in its engineered products and services segment, primarily because of dynamics in the steel market, reduced revenue, and a modestly higher tax rate.

For the full year, Tyco now sees earnings from continuing operations excluding special items of $1.85 to $1.87 per share, also below prior internal estimates and also shy of analysts' current forecast of $1.90 per share. The company expects full-year cash from operating activities of $6 billion to $6.4 billion and free cash flow of $4.2 billion to $4.6 billion.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/2/2005 8:57:10 AM

Yesterday's closing drop bottomed at a higher intraday low, and today's opening bounce has price back up to the 72 SMA. As a result, the 30 and 60 min cycle upphases didn't reverse, and continue to point higher this morning. Bulls need to see price hold above the 39.69 QQQQ level, below which the intraday cycles will stall. Bears need a break below 39.57. Currently, 30 and 60 min channel resistance line up with daily R1 at 39.84.

Jeff Bailey : 8/2/2005 8:52:12 AM

Program Trading Levels for Tuesday ... HL Camp & Company has their computers set for program buying at $+3.58 and set for program selling at $+1.34.

Linda Piazza : 8/2/2005 8:48:18 AM

I'm leaving now, and am not sure when I will return. Here's the post I had roughed out last night, although I haven't had time to review it this morning. The OEX remains within a consolidation pattern forming beneath a long-term resistance band on my daily and weekly charts. This band spans from about 577.30-578.40, but that's an approximate range. Some resistance lies on either side of that range. The OEX also remains within a broadening formation on its daily chart. The daily candle was a bearish one, but nearly a duplicate of last Tuesday's, with prices rising the next day, so bearish or bullish candles that remain within a consolidation pattern must not be granted entirely the same significance as those occurring after a long run to the upside or downside. Intraday, the OEX created a downside breakdown signal on its 15-minute chart, but failed to follow-through, just as it had with the upside signal on Thursday. Both days saw the OEX weaving in and out of the breakout signal, on Thursday climbing a little and yesterday dropping a little, but never convincingly committing to the breakout. As yesterday ended, the OEX had dropped into a right-shoulder area for a potential inverse H&S on its 15-minute chart, so that's the first development to be watched this morning. The neckline is now at about 575; the head, at yesterday's low. A low below that invalidates the formation.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/2/2005 8:46:41 AM

Ten year notes continue to bounce, up to a small 3/64 loss, with TNX down to a 1 bp gain a 4.329%.

Linda Piazza : 8/2/2005 8:41:16 AM

I mentioned yesterday morning that my medically fragile granddaughter had contracted chicken pox from an immunization and that I might have to leave suddenly. Her glucose level sometimes plummets in what is called a metabolic decompensation. Unfortunately, she's not doing well this morning, and we're monitoring her closely. I might have to leave at any moment, and might not be around for the open.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/2/2005 8:35:09 AM

Ten year notes made a nominal new low and are holding at 110 17/32, TNX up 1.4 bps at 4.333%. QQQQ is down to a .06 gain at 39.71, but there's been little reaction to the 8:30 data so far.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/2/2005 8:33:13 AM

June personal income was unrevised at .2%.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/2/2005 8:31:53 AM









Jonathan Levinson : 8/2/2005 8:26:27 AM

Bonds have recovered slightly, ten year notes up to a 1/8 loss at 110 9/16, with TNX quoted +2.9 bps at 4.348%. 4.35% is resistance going back to the spring, while support is at 4.25%.

Linda Piazza : 8/2/2005 8:03:49 AM

CNOOC reportedly will withdraw its offer for Unocal today. Since I had already reported yesterday that some speculated that this action would occur within 48 hours, but that speculation was countered by other rumors that CNOOC would actually increase its bid, I was waiting for confirmation, rather than having to tag the statement with "reportedly." As of a few moments ago, CNBC is reporting it now as a fact. Bear Stearns has upgraded CNOOC.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/2/2005 7:42:55 AM

Equities are up, ES trading 1240, NQ 1618.5, YM 10648 and QQQQ +.08 at 39.73. Gold is down .40 to 434.30, silver is down .013 to 7.291, ten year notes are -11/64 to 110 33/64 and crude oil is down .425 to 61.15.

We await Person Income and Personal Spending, est. .4% and .8%, at 8:30, then at 10AM, it's Factory Orders, est. 1%.

Linda Piazza : 8/2/2005 6:59:05 AM

Good morning. The Nikkei punched to its highest intraday level of the year, but declined to close modestly in negative territory. Other Asian markets gained, as do European markets this morning. Semi-related issues reportedly performed well in early trading in both regions after positive industry-related news. Our futures are modestly positive. As of 6:46 EST, gold was down $0.30, and crude, down $0.48 to $61.09. More detail about Asian and European markets follows in succeeding paragraphs.

The Nikkei opened and made an early try for 12,000 again, hitting a slightly higher high than yesterday's and its highest intraday level all year. Then it dropped into negative territory and spent the rest of the day there. It managed to close off its low of the day, but still closed 6.72 points or 0.06% lower, at 11,940.20. The Nikkei once again punched to a new swing high before dropping into negative territory--a presumed key reversal if volume considerations were also there--but it's been producing possible reversal signals all the way through the rally. It's difficult and risky to give full credence to this possible one without knowing if there will be follow through to the downside.

Energy-related stocks benefited from the higher crude prices yesterday, and, during early trading, semi-related stocks benefited from industry news, but disappointing earnings from Olympus Corporation sent that stock lower in early trading and perhaps weighed on sentiment. The Semiconductor Industry Association quoted statistics from World Semiconductor Trade Statistics, noting that sales of chips increased 6.5% in the first half of the year, when compared to the same period a year ago. Some stocks such as Matsushita Electric Industrial and Advantest Corp. benefited from their strong results, and Sony rebounded somewhat from the drubbing it had received after its disappointing results. Last night, after a report that land prices in Tokyo had risen for the first time in more than a decade, Japan's Minister of Finance Tanigaki said that Japan's struggle to pull out of a deflationary environment is not yet finished. He wants the central bank to continue its quantitative easing policy. Reported afterwards was the Bank of Japan's Fukui's statement that the bank would retain its current easy policy until the CPI was rising in a steady manner. Fukui further believes that the CPI might become positive by the end of 2005 or the beginning of next year.

Most other Asian markets gained. The Taiwan Weighted climbed 0.56%, and South Korea's Kospi rose 0.26%. Singapore's Straits Times rose 0.48%, and Hong Kong's Hang Seng climbed 1.06%. China's Shanghai Composite gained 1.39%.

European markets gain this morning, too. Oil-related and some other commodity-related issues climb and some companies' positive earnings boosted sentiment. Economic numbers were released today, too. In the U.K., CIPS' Construction PMI for July came in above the benchmark 50, at a seasonally adjusted 54.7, with June's at 55.8. The July Distributive Trades Survey showed a rise, but one that was lower than expected. Expected volume of orders placed declined as did the three-month trend in annual sales. One article noted that the three-month trend was the lowest recorded for this particular survey. A guest commentator on CNBC Europe last night suggested that the U.K. might be moving into a period of stagflation. As had been expected, the Eurozone's June PPI rose since crude prices had risen since May. The increase was 0.5% month over month, and 4% year over year. Excluding energy, inflation concerns were more benign, with the year over year rate decreasing from May's, to 1.7% year over year from May's 1.9%. The Eurozone's June unemployment rate was revised lower to 8.7% from the previous 8.8%.

German supermarket Metro, tire manufacturer Continental, and Ryanair Holdings climbed after their well-received earnings reports. U.K. mortgage bank Alliance & Leicester PLC declined after its reported first-half pre-tax profit that fell from the year-earlier period. The company said good things about the rest of the year.

As of 6:47 EST, the FTSE 100 was higher by 21.40 points or 0.40%, at 5,312.20. The CAC 40 was higher by 16.31 points or 0.37%, at 4,473.18. The DAX was higher by 21.09 points or 0.43%, at 4,911.94. A commentator on CNBC Europe last night claimed that "it was no longer a question of 'if' the DAX hit 5,000, but 'when'" it would do so, an example of bullishness that might make a contrarian wince.

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