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Tab Gilles : 8/5/2005 12:14:56 AM

Murphy Oil (MUR) Added to $SPX. Link Link Link Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/4/2005 11:28:53 PM

Program Trading Levels for Friday ... HL Camp & Company has their computers set for program buying at $+3.38 and set for program selling at $+1.11.

Jeff Bailey : 8/4/2005 11:27:02 PM

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) $8.65 -3.13% Link ... successfully prices secondary offering at $8.60 per ADS for total of $1.304 billion. Underwriters have an over-allotment option to purchase up to 22.745 million ADS within 30-days.

Jeff Bailey : 8/4/2005 10:22:50 PM

Taiwan markets closed on Friday due to Typhoon Matsa.

OI Technical Staff : 8/4/2005 9:59:59 PM

The Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

Disclaimer: Stocks discussed in the Market Monitor are for educational purposes only and any analysis is not meant to imply a recommendation for or against that stock. The analysts in this forum as on any other website are prohibited by the SEC from giving any specific advice to ANY individual trader. All information posted is for ALL readers and is not meant to be directed to any individual. Our analysts cannot answer any email questions regarding any specific stock. Please do not ask and please do not take offense if requests are denied.

Results posted in the Market Monitor are hypothetical and OIN does not claim that any reader achieved these exact results. Due to the lag time between research, writing, posting, uploading, reading and execution there will be differences between the actual signal given and the fill achieved by the reader. Fills may be better or worse but in most cases they will be different. The writers will make every effort to give advance notice of intended signals and indicate potential price targets. Your individual results may vary depending on your activity level and aggressiveness. This forum is intended as an education service only. Trading involves risk and should not be attempted by anyone not ready to accept this risk. By acting on any signal in this forum you agree and personally accept this risk.

Jeff Bailey : 8/4/2005 7:02:57 PM

Red Robin Gourmet Burgers (RRGB) $58.11 -2.02% Link ... served higher at $59.94 with Standard and Poors adding to S&P SmallCap 600 after the close of trading on August 9. RRGB will replace Pinnacle Systems (PCLE) $4.48 -0.88% Link , which is being acquired by S&P SmallCap 600 constituent Avid Technology (AVID) in a deal expected to close on or about August 9, pending final approvals.

Jeff Bailey : 8/4/2005 6:52:55 PM

Tyson Foods (TSN) $17.80 -1.05% Link ... jumps to $18.50 with Standard & Poors adding to S&P 500 on a date to be announced. Tyson will replace Unocal Corp. (UCL) $64.99 +0.13%, which is being acquired by S&P 500 constituent Chevron Corp. (CVX) $60.41 +0.09% in a deal pending final approval.

Polo Ralph Lauren (RL) $48.93 -3.91% Link higher at $49.90 as it will replace TSN in the S&P MidCap 400.

Jeff Bailey : 8/4/2005 6:55:21 PM

Murphy Oil (MUR) $53.00 +0.51% Link ... jumps to $54.50 with Standard & Poors adding to S&P 500 on a date to be announced. Murphy will replace Nextel Communications (NXTL) $34.86 +1.30% Link which is being acquired by S&P 500 constituent Sprint Corp. (FON) $26.77 +0.82% Link

MEMC Electronics (WFR) $16.65 -2.97% Link ... higher at $17.04 and will replace TSN in the S&P MidCap 400.

Jeff Bailey : 8/4/2005 6:02:11 PM

For what it is worth to a QQQQ trader ... this afternoon I did have a Market Monitor post ready to go for a long if the QQQQ traded $39.73, but I was monitoring Level II and while big bids would build at $39.71 with small offers $39.72, the QQQQ couldn't get it done. Now .... from 14:20-14:25 there was a "bad tick" to $40.10.

I mention this only as I look at tomorrow's DAILY Pivot Matrix.

Jeff Bailey : 8/4/2005 5:58:26 PM

Pivot Matrix for Friday at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/4/2005 5:21:15 PM

Closing Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/4/2005 5:02:29 PM

Closing U.S. Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/4/2005 4:08:57 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles found at this Link ... Today's Activity ... Swing trade stopped on the one (1) Wellpoint WLP Sep $72.50 Call (WLP-IV) at $2.75 ($+1.70, or +161.90%).

Jeff Bailey : 8/4/2005 4:06:05 PM

Sell Program Premium ... DIA $106.04, SPY $123.59

Linda Piazza : 8/4/2005 3:58:52 PM

SOX falling into the close, approaching 470-471-ish historical S/R. At 472.81 as I type. That is not a pretty candle today. Remember that we've had an impulsive move lower in some indices, but not yet the retest. We don't always get that retest, but if we do, and if there are lower highs, then bears can feel more comfortable that the short-term and maybe intermediate-term trend has changed at least.

Linda Piazza : 8/4/2005 3:55:58 PM

In the last few minutes of trading, the OEX is threatening another breakdown signal. Rising trendline support from 7/20 is at about 572.87. Bears would like to see that broken soundly by the end of the day. OEX at 573.19 as I type, and it's likely to end the day right on that trendline.

Linda Piazza : 8/4/2005 3:48:04 PM

OEX still inside the flag in which it's been climbing. Bears want it see it break down soon. Keltner support has drifted down to 572.11.

OEX bears have a difficult decision today as the close approaches. Hold over or not? Hopefully, many who have bearish positions entered near the top of the channel or at least at today's open and took partial profits earlier. That tactic makes the decision-making process easier, because not so much is at stake. Other than the behavior of other indices, there's not a lot to go on with the OEX just yet, depending on what happens into the close. It maintains the Keltner channel that's been containing its movements, as well as the slightly rising regression channel it's forming under long-term resistance marked on my chart, carried over from monthly and weekly charts. It's in the middle of support and resistance on the daily Keltner chart. I think that resistance overhead is strong resistance, but I can't guarantee that the OEX won't go on testing it. Bears need to see the OEX break down out of that rising regression channel on the daily chart.

Jeff Bailey : 8/4/2005 3:45:57 PM

S&P Banks (BIX.X) 360.36 -0.58% ... hanging in there. It's raining here in Denver, supposed to be a cool night. Not sure about tomorrow, but if its hot, then the cucumbers in the garden will be sweating.

Jeff Bailey : 8/4/2005 3:43:48 PM

Bullish swing trade long cancel setup alert for the QQQQ $39.67 -0.97% at this time. Didn't quite get the trade at WEEKLY Pivot and with 17-minutes until the close, likely won't get the test and observation of what computers are set to do.

Linda Piazza : 8/4/2005 3:35:28 PM

OEX trying its best to hit 574.78-575.14 next Keltner resistance on the 15-minute chart, but it's climb still looks corrective so far,and it hasn't been able to make it. White and red candles mix together, and there are lots of candle shadows spiking every which way. It may be coiling now just beneath that resistance. Next support at 573.95, currently being tested, with the breakdown level below that, at 573.16 on 15-minute closes.

Linda Piazza : 8/4/2005 3:33:21 PM

SOX Keltner resistance at 474.11 and then 475.05 on 15-minute closes. SOX at 473.91 as I type.

Linda Piazza : 8/4/2005 3:20:08 PM

Not even the RUT, with the RUT beginning its drop a day ahead of some other indices, has been able to make any upward progress over the last few hours. It was attempting to form an inverse H&S on the five-minute chart, but it's a long, thin formation, and the RUT verges on invalidating it. It's now created a 667.61 downside signal on the 30-minute chart, with that signal preserved as long as it produces 30-minute closes below 676.38. Bears would prefer that 30-minute closes remain below the line currently at 675.19, however.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/4/2005 3:12:45 PM

The setup of the 30 and 60 min cycles suggest that a sideways bottoming move is occurring as the longer 60 min cycle makes its turn. Only an oversold trending move would prevent the intraday cycles from turning up in what would kick off and upphase to last at least through tomorrow morning. So far the bounces have been flat, but we often see a sideways range as the 60 min cycle turns. I'd expect the upphases to be corrective only, and to finish at lower highs within today's range, but until 39.62 breaks, the intraday bias is to the upside from here. Link

Linda Piazza : 8/4/2005 3:10:52 PM

The OEX is in the process of confirming an inverse H&S on its five-minute chart, head at the day's low, neckline at about 574.11, OEX currently at 574.23. It's testing Keltner resistance on the five-minute chart as it moves just across this neckline, though. If it can maintain values above the neckline, it looks as if it might get higher enough to test 574.66-565.17, but that may depend on what happens with other indices, too, and whether they weigh the OEX down or not. So far, it's the same old, same old for the OEX today, but I'm not entirely convinced that the OEX can get too much higher.

Jeff Bailey : 8/4/2005 3:10:46 PM

03:00 Internals found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 8/4/2005 3:03:54 PM

Ten year note yields finished higher by 1.9 bps at 4.319%.

Jeff Bailey : 8/4/2005 3:03:08 PM

03:00 Market Watch at this Link

Linda Piazza : 8/4/2005 3:02:40 PM

SOX so far finding resistance where bears would wish. Still maintaining 470.59 downside target so far.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/4/2005 2:52:56 PM

Another low for GE at 34.02 here, -.18 or .53%.

Linda Piazza : 8/4/2005 2:50:42 PM

SOX rising to test 474.19 and then 475.20 Keltner resistance on the 15-minute chart. SOX at 474.07 as I type.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/4/2005 2:48:42 PM

Some big upside volume spikes for QQQQ here, but breadth has worsened to -3.51:1 for the Nasdaq, with QQQQ still laboring under that 39.70 neckline: Link

Linda Piazza : 8/4/2005 2:44:32 PM

A week or two ago, I quipped that I knew what the OEX was going to do: it was going to stay inside the Keltner channel (now 572.52 and 573.89) that had contained it for so long, and stay inside it forever. Maybe it wasn't such a joke, because here we are again with the OEX creating a minimal breakdown out of that channel and now scrambling back inside the channel and rising past first resistance once inside it. Next resistance 574.62-575.22. As I mentioned earlier, this is not what bears want to see. The OEX may be stopped at the midline and turned lower again for another try, but bears would have liked to see the quick follow-through that other indices produced. I'd warned before it was ever hit that bears needed profit-protecting plans in place for a test of the lower channel boundary, and it's time to adhere to those plans, whatever they were. Those who followed my advice to take part of their positions off the table on that touch probably have a bit more breathing room than those who didn't. These generals still won't budge off that well-worn path, will they?

Jonathan Levinson : 8/4/2005 2:33:30 PM

Sept. crude oil closes +.60 at 61.45.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/4/2005 2:30:25 PM

QQQQ prints a bad tick to 40.10. Link Quotetracker users can zap it by clicking on the chart and pressing ctrl-shift-h.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/4/2005 2:28:37 PM

Marc, I've been hearing from different sources that mutual fund cash levels are at lows not seen since March 2000, the 2nd time ever. This just anecdotal, though, as I've not seen it reported in primary sources.

Linda Piazza : 8/4/2005 2:27:11 PM

SOX still drifting down toward its current 470.62 target on its 15-minute Keltner chart. Remember that it's got daily Keltner support currently at 474.67 and 475.89, and it's not until the end of the day that we know whether that support has held up or been breached. The SOX is at 473.52 as I type.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/4/2005 2:20:47 PM

Volume breadth -2.55:1 on the NYSE, -3.39:1 on the Nasdaq, TRIN 1.19 and TRINQ 2.0.

Linda Piazza : 8/4/2005 2:17:18 PM

The OEX has risen to test Keltner resistance currently at 573.86, and appears that it may close the 15-minute period below that resistance. Still, bears would have preferred a close a bit lower, but this close will suggest that the OEX might not be through testing support. It's threatening to break higher, toward 575.58 or even 575.20. I'm not in an OEX play as I'm up to my eyeballs in others and don't want to be too extended, but I suggested earlier that when the OEX tested that lower channel line, I probably would have taken partial credit and lowered the stop on the rest of the position. Doing so would have allowed some peace of mind as the OEX balances between resistance and support. Whatever you decided, don't let a winning play turn into a losing one.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/4/2005 2:16:50 PM

Could be a reverse h&s below a 39.70 neckline, so long as price holds above 39.62ish: Link

Jonathan Levinson : 8/4/2005 2:07:02 PM

Session low for ten year notes, -11/64 at 110 43/64. TNX is up 1.8 bps at 4.318%.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/4/2005 2:03:42 PM

The 30 min cycle is looking bottomy for QQQQ, and the 60 min is oversold but still pointing lower. 30 and 60 min channel support line up in the 39.54-.56 area, and the 72 SMA line is in play now at 39.67. While the daily and weekly cycles are due for a decline, the intraday cycles are due for a bounce. Link

Linda Piazza : 8/4/2005 2:03:19 PM

The Wilshire 5000 has been testing its 10-sma today, with that average at 12,378.28 and with the Wilshire 5000 currently at 12,371.02. If the DWC should end the day below that average, it will the first time since late June and early July, when it was testing the average for a two-week period before rising into the last move higher. The DWC will also have created an evening star reversal signal at the top of a climb. Like the Nikkei, the DWC has created a number of reversal signals on the way higher, without ever really reversing, so intermediate-term bears will want to see a bit more proof than just a signal day's downturn, especially as the DWC remains within its long-term ascending regression channel off the spring low.

Linda Piazza : 8/4/2005 1:45:33 PM

One reason that the OEX may not be falling after its Keltner breakdown signal, the way some other indices did, is that it's been testing the rising trendline that defined the bottom of its flag, a flag that's been forming since the middle of July. A best-fit version of the rising trendline support is near 573.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/4/2005 1:45:06 PM

The bounce from 39.57 set up a pretty steep bullish divergence on the short cycle Macd for QQQQ: Link . Bulls need to see the 72 SMA at 39.68 broken with a burst of volume to suggest followthrough, and the previous highs remain at 39.70.

Linda Piazza : 8/4/2005 1:36:15 PM

Minimal new LOD on the OEX, but it's still not showing the same free-fall characteristics as some other indices.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/4/2005 1:27:49 PM

Session low for QQQQ and NQ here at 39.60 and 1612.5.

Linda Piazza : 8/4/2005 1:27:02 PM

OEX testing the LOD. Bears want to see a strong push below it, toward that 571.08 next target.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/4/2005 1:25:51 PM

VXO 11.84, VXN 14.79

Linda Piazza : 8/4/2005 1:23:53 PM

SOX downside target now 470.77 as long as the SOX continues 15-minute closes below 475.36-476.60.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/4/2005 1:23:48 PM

QQQQ's short cycle upphast stalls below descending 72 SMA resistance now at 39.71: Link

Linda Piazza : 8/4/2005 1:20:53 PM

RUT's next Keltner resistance at 675.40 on 30-minute closes, then at 677-678.61.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/4/2005 1:18:33 PM

Volume breadth -2.45:1 on the NYSE, -3.1:1 on the Nasdaq.

Linda Piazza : 8/4/2005 1:17:02 PM

Although the OEX hasn't seen follow-through to the downside after creating a new breakdown signal, as did other indices, it also has not erased that signal. This isn't what bears used to the OEX's recent behavior with relationship to this channel want to see, though. They want a stronger breakdown to avoid the OEX's recent tendency to head back inside that channel after breaking out minimally. Next resistance at 573.82-574.16 on 15-minute closes.

Linda Piazza : 8/4/2005 1:09:51 PM

SOX rising in what looks like a possible bear flag toward 475.65-476.97 next Keltner resistance. SOX at 474.50.

Linda Piazza : 8/4/2005 1:03:35 PM

This is the kind of move I was waiting to see in some of the high-flying indices. Note that the RLX has not yet broken through the rising trendline off the spring low, however, and has further support near 460. On a bounce over the next few days, perhaps from that rising trendline support, bears hoping for a real downturn will want to see a lower high and that would be the signal that a downturn in this index and perhaps others was in progress. Link

Jonathan Levinson : 8/4/2005 12:59:40 PM

Session low for ten year notes, -1/8 at 110 45/64, with TNX up 1.1 bps at 4.311%.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/4/2005 12:57:19 PM

The short cycle indicators are no longer oversold, the upphase now over 40 minutes old. So far, daily S2 at 39.69 has held back the advance, but price continues to bounce from higher lows within the flag: Link . 39.73 is immediate confluence resistance should 39.69 fail.

Linda Piazza : 8/4/2005 12:54:24 PM

RLX dropped to 471.22, now rising off that in what looks like a bear flag. The RLX's rising regression channel off the April low has support at about 465, so the RLX is so far just dropping through that long-term rising channel. If the RLX should test that channel support and bounce over the new few trading days, bears will want to see a lower high than the 7/29 high.

Linda Piazza : 8/4/2005 12:50:10 PM

Rather than completely erasing its breakdown signal, the OEX is instead testing the breakdown level. The last 15-minute close was a few cents back inside the channel, and prices are still a little inside the channel. Still, this isn't yet a strong confirmation of a new breakdown. As long as prices continue 15-minute closes beneath a Keltner line currently at 574.46, the OEX remains more likely to go on testing that support rather than rising to test resistance It remains vulnerable to more downside.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/4/2005 12:40:19 PM

The CBOE total put to call ratio has been holding above 1.08 for the past 3 half hour readings, with DTN reporting a current 1.2. But volume breadth remains deep negative at -2.44:1 on the NYSE and -3.05:1 on the Nasdaq.

Linda Piazza : 8/4/2005 12:39:03 PM

Here we go again: a minimal breakout of that channel that's contained the OEX so long, no follow-through, and now an immediate retest. This is a pattern seen over and over, both to the upside and the downside breakouts on the OEX's 15-minute Keltner charts. Bears want the OEX to find resistance on 15-minute closes at the Keltner line currently at 573.84, and failing that, at the line currently at 574.58. If the OEX should move past 575.68 on a 15-minute close, then it looks more likely to just rise through the channel again.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/4/2005 12:36:09 PM

Volume is lighter on the bounce here, and the price is sideways despite a short cycle upphase now in progress. A weak bounce will set up a likely retest and break of the lows if the bulls can't get some traction out of those oversold readings. Link

Jonathan Levinson : 8/4/2005 12:33:22 PM

Ten year notes are stalled, TNX not budging at 4.303%.

Linda Piazza : 8/4/2005 12:28:29 PM

Stepping away for a few minutes.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/4/2005 12:27:35 PM

Sept. crude +1.05 or 1.73% at 61.90, off a high of 62.075.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/4/2005 12:26:07 PM

QQQQ is getting pressured on a small wavelet downphase off the rise from the session low, but the short cycle indicators are turning up. Bears need to hold below daily S2 and take out the current 39.60 low to set the short cycle indicators trending in oversold. A bounce is clearly due in that timeframe- the question is whether the 30/60 min, daily and weekly timeframes overpower it. Link

Linda Piazza : 8/4/2005 12:23:14 PM

The OEX isn't following through as some other indices have been after it broke through the channel that's contained most movements over the last several weeks.

Linda Piazza : 8/4/2005 12:21:38 PM

SOX still looking vulnerable to 470.94, but that depends on continued 15-minute closes beneath Keltner lines currently from 476.59-479.14.

Linda Piazza : 8/4/2005 12:20:50 PM

RUT has had a breakdown out of its 15-minute Keltner channels' outer channel boundary. Could be one of those gully-washer days after all. Moving to the 30-minute chart to determine a new downside target, I see a target of 667.39. That depends on the RUT holding below 676.34-678.49 next resistance on 30-minute closes, so, if it bounces, that's where bears want to see the bounce stop. Bears do not want to see a strong thrust higher.

Jeff Bailey : 8/4/2005 12:18:59 PM

Bullish swing trade long setup alert .... for 1/2 bullish position in the QQQQ $39.64 -1.04% ... should it do this .... traded WEEKLY Pivot, then begin to bounce back above $39.68.

Then GO LONG the QQQQ with a trade at $39.70, stop $39.45, target $40.25.

Jeff Bailey : 8/4/2005 12:15:09 PM

I have to leave for a couple of hours to take Drake the dog in for a hip and leg check. I should be back by 02:00 PM EDT.

Jeff Bailey : 8/4/2005 12:13:43 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 8/4/2005 12:10:49 PM

The short cycle indicators are buried in oversold, and while they're due for a trending move, trending moves are always the less-likely outcome. The 30 and 60 min cycles should remain bearish with price below the 72 SMA, now lined up with old double-bottom support at 39.82, while support to Monday's lows is now in play to the 39.50 level.

Jeff Bailey : 8/4/2005 12:09:22 PM

12:00 Internals found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 8/4/2005 12:07:33 PM

The SOX remains vulnerable to 471, with next resistance at 577.23-479.46 on 15-minute closes.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/4/2005 12:07:02 PM

QQQQ 3 day 100-tick chart: Link

Jonathan Levinson : 8/4/2005 12:05:07 PM

Monday's low at 39.52 QQQQ is in view now, and a break of that level on a closing basis (for Friday) will set up a key reversal on the weekly chart- in that context, these are are critical levels after this week's higher highs.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/4/2005 12:03:38 PM

Volume breadth -2.37:1 on the NYSE and -2.98:1 on the Nasdaq, TRIN 1.1 and TRINQ 1.79.

Jeff Bailey : 8/4/2005 12:03:13 PM

12:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 8/4/2005 12:03:05 PM

As of the last 15-minute close, the OEX had created a new breakdown signal, target 571.19. Remember that the OEX remains within its consolidation pattern--a slightly ascending regression channel--over the last few weeks.

Linda Piazza : 8/4/2005 12:01:28 PM

The SOX now tests the bottom of the gap higher Tuesday morning.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/4/2005 12:01:12 PM

This retreat from the highs, if it holds until tomorrow, will leave a gravestone doji for the weekly print, and the 10-week stochastic is buried in overbought. Still many hours left to go, though.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/4/2005 12:00:04 PM

VXO 11.68, VXN 14.5

Linda Piazza : 8/4/2005 11:56:08 AM

SOX still going lower. The 15-minute chart suggests that without a strong bounce back above 477.91 on 15-minute closes, it's still vulnerable to 471.06. It's testing daily Keltner support as I type, though, and that could slow the drop. The same configuration didn't slow the stop for the RUT, but still could for the SOX.

Tab Gilles : 8/4/2005 11:53:44 AM

$COMPQ Link $NDX Link SOX Link $BTK Link $NASI Link $BPCOMPQ Link $NAHL Link

Jonathan Levinson : 8/4/2005 11:52:10 AM

Volume is picking up on the downside, but remains light today at 30.7M QQQQ shares so far. 39.69 is currently the bottom of the declining regression channel, as well as daily S2. 30 and 60 min channel support are in play at 39.72. Bears need to see 39.82 hold as resistance at the prior double bottom.

Linda Piazza : 8/4/2005 11:51:38 AM

The RUT was one of the first indices to lead the way down, underperforming some others yesterday. As I type, it's hitting bottom 15-minute Keltner support at 675.63. Daily Keltner support for the RUT is at 677.76-678.98, so at some point there might be a bounce up to retest that former support. Bears want a daily close below it; bulls, above it.

Linda Piazza : 8/4/2005 11:49:42 AM

The expected OEX bounce attempt comes as the Keltner channel line now at 574.27 was tested. Bears want a 15-minute close below that Keltner line, but, failing that, continued 15-minute closes below 575.46-575.98.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/4/2005 11:48:05 AM

QQQQ breaks the lows, returning to Monday afternoon's range and losing daily S1 support: Link Volume breadth is down to -2.14:1 on the NYSE, -2.71:1 on the Nasdaq.

Linda Piazza : 8/4/2005 11:45:58 AM

New LOD as this was posted, on the OEX. Keltner support being tested, with further support at 574.34. Bears need to be pulling up the plans that had in place previously for a test of the lower channel line--exit part and lower stop on rest, exit all, stay in all but lower stops. I think I'd exit some and lower the stop to breakeven on the rest, so I had an opportunity to participate if there was a gully-washer of a day.

Jeff Bailey : 8/4/2005 11:38:31 AM

S&P Banks Index (BIX.X) components sorted by market cap at this Link

Linda Piazza : 8/4/2005 11:37:51 AM

SOX testing its LOD. Bulls need to pull it up here, as there's that vulnerability to 471.13 setting up on the 15-minute Keltner chart.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/4/2005 11:37:43 AM

QQQQ breaks 39.95, invalidating the reverse h&s setup and retesting the session lows: Link

Mark Davis : 8/4/2005 11:34:42 AM

Jeff did you notice the diamond formation on Google? Link

Linda Piazza : 8/4/2005 11:34:32 AM

Just barely got that last post uploaded when the OEX did begin rolling down. What happens sometimes in cases like these is that the first breakdown is actually just followed by a widening of the flag shape into a more sustainable flag, and, without a new LOD immediately, that's what I'd suppose is happening, and that the labored climb might continue a while longer.

Linda Piazza : 8/4/2005 11:33:20 AM

I'm not sure that the OEX's climb is complete, and would rather expect some more chopping around, perhaps for another hour or two, but the possibility exists that it could soon roll down, too.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/4/2005 11:31:16 AM

Session low for GE at 34.09, testing yesterday's lows. Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/4/2005 11:27:24 AM

Time Warner (TWX) $17.44 +0.98% Link ... #4 on this morning's most active list with the company saying it will set aside a $3 billion reserve to cover lawsuits from shareholders over its merger with AOL.

The company reported quarterly earnings and posted a net loss of $321 million, or $-0.07 per share, versus a profit of $777 million, or $0.17 a share in the year-ago period. Revenue was down 1% to $10.74 billion from $10.86 billion in the comparable quarter.

At the same time, the company said it would buy back $5 billion of its own shares over the next two years.

Linda Piazza : 8/4/2005 11:26:29 AM

The SOX is rising to test 478.39-479.41 Keltner resistance on the 15-minute chart, with more resistance layered over that. This resistance looks stronger than nearby support, with the SOX looking vulnerable to a drop to 471.20 without a strong thrust up through that gathering resistance. One caution, though: daily Keltner support is at the currently being tested 476.42 and extends down to 474.33, with that support previously having held up on multiple tests since early July. A daily close beneath the line currently at 474.33 will suggest that the SOX is more likely to sink to test to support than to go on rising to test upper channel resistance.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/4/2005 11:25:18 AM

Volume breadth -1.71:1 on the NYSE, -1.5:1 on the Nasdaq.

Tab Gilles : 8/4/2005 11:26:11 AM

Candle Glance.... Link

NDX100 Heat map Link

Linda Piazza : 8/4/2005 11:20:59 AM

So far, the OEX finds resistance where bears would want to see it do so, but it may not yet have stopped challenging resistance, now at 576.03-576.12.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/4/2005 11:19:49 AM

Volume has dropped off sharply on this pullback from 39.94 QQQQ, but the short cycle indicators have stalled as well. If the bears can break 39.85 support, volume should pick up to confirm it. Otherwise, it will just look like another test (and confirmation) of the reverse h&s shoulder support. Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/4/2005 11:10:36 AM

11:00 Internals found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 8/4/2005 11:09:44 AM

Climbs still look labored on the indices that I typically watch, but all these surprise-out-of-nowhere zooms higher lately have me looking for another one. Can't imagine that one strong drop will have scattered all bulls when they didn't do it on the 27th and some other days.

Linda Piazza : 8/4/2005 11:05:18 AM

My 10:52 post mentioned that some chart suggested that the OEX would rise toward 576-576.15 (slightly different numbers then), and it's now risen to test that. Bears would prefer to see 15-minute closes below 576.10. So far, the rise on the 15-minute chart looks like a typical bear-flag climb.

Jeff Bailey : 8/4/2005 11:02:17 AM

11:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 8/4/2005 11:00:18 AM

The RLX is bouncing and I've put a Fib bracket on today's steep drop. It hit the 21-sma and is bouncing from that, and bears want the bounce to stop below 479-481.50. They'd actually like to see it stop at or below the 50% retracement of the day's range so far, at 477.70. Watch the way it climbs (chopping higher or bursting higher) and the height to which it runs for clues.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/4/2005 10:58:19 AM

Stepping away for 10 minutes.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/4/2005 10:54:13 AM

Looks like a reverse head and shoulder formation below QQQQ 39.92-.94, with an implied target around 40.05 on a high volume break of the neckline: Link A move below 39.85 would violate the right-shoulder area and invalidate the pattern.

Linda Piazza : 8/4/2005 10:52:51 AM

So far, the OEX's move higher is a choppy, corrective-looking one, but bears have been surprised before lately when all seemed to be working well. Keltner resistance thickens up 5o 576.63, although bears would prefer that 576.12 hold on 15-minute closes. I mentioned earlier that we could get a several-hour labored climb now before we know the outcome of the bounce attempt, unless there was going to be gully washer day. Some charts suggest that there's a good possibility that 576-576.15 will be tested, although that's just a possibility and not necessarily a probability.

Linda Piazza : 8/4/2005 10:48:28 AM

A reminder: The SOX 10-sma is at 476.97, with the SOX LOD at 476.67 and the SOX currently at 477.87.

Linda Piazza : 8/4/2005 10:45:31 AM

SOX bouncing back to retest the top of the gap, and the 15-minute 100/130-ema's at 480.20 and 479.16. This is where bears need to be particularly watchful. I wouldn't be surprised to see some strong bursts moving indices to the upside, but bears would want to see the bursts stopped and prices slapped back as soon as the buying that prompted them was over, and they don't want to see new highs. They'd like to see the SOX stopped short below the confirmation level of its double-top formation on the 15-minute chart, with that confirmation level at just over 481. We had a strong short-term move down this morning, but this is where we see if it holds or if it was just another buying opportunity for bulls.

Jeff Bailey : 8/4/2005 10:43:44 AM

Swing trade bullish call stop alert ... with Wellpoint (WLP) $73.25 -0.95% here. WLPIV bid/ask $2.75 x $2.90

Jeff Bailey : 8/4/2005 10:42:06 AM

VIX.X 12.11 +2.36% ... WEEKLY R1 here, just off session high reading of 12.15

Jeff Bailey : 8/4/2005 10:40:54 AM

SPX 1,240.76 -0.34% ...

SPY $124.20 -0.41% ...

Jeff Bailey : 8/4/2005 10:40:20 AM

TRIN alert 0.91 -1.08% ... slips below DAILY Pivot.

Jeff Bailey : 8/4/2005 10:36:40 AM

S&P Banks Index (BIX.X) 359.78 -0.73% ... testing "right shoulder" of reverse h/s. (see last night's Market Wrap)

Jonathan Levinson : 8/4/2005 10:34:24 AM

QQQQ's short cycle indicators have turned up, but the bounce fasiled at 39.91, a lower high. Bears need to break the previous low at 39.81 to turn the indicators back down and reverse the short cycle upphase that has kicked off.

Jeff Bailey : 8/4/2005 10:32:01 AM

10 Most Active ... MSFT $27.39 +0.51%, QQQQ $39.91 -0.37%, SPY $124.22 -0.40%, JDSU $1.52 (unch), CSCO $19.71 +0.87%, CPN $3.48 +4.81%, INTC $27.50 -0.54%, TWX $17.54 +1.62%, SIRI $6.86 -1.29%, HGSI $13.99 -5.53%

Linda Piazza : 8/4/2005 10:29:57 AM

TRAN testing its 10-sma. It hasn't closed below this average since early in July, and the 7/20 touch prompted a huge bounce. Wouldn't be suprrised to see the TRAN work itself toward 3725-3750 over the next few days, though.

Linda Piazza : 8/4/2005 10:26:02 AM

OEX testing mid-channel Keltner resistance. Next resistance above that at 576-576.16, but the mid-channel level is holding so far. I think we could possibly settle into a several-hour process here while bulls and bears battle it out again and decide where markets are headed the rest of the day. If it's going to be a gully-washer kind of day, though, that several-hour pattern might not hold.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/4/2005 10:23:47 AM

Volume breadth has recovered to -2.08:1 on the NYSE and -1.55:1 on the Nasdaq, TRIN .96 and TRINQ .87.

Jeff Bailey : 8/4/2005 10:21:47 AM

Current OPEN MM Profiles found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 8/4/2005 10:18:11 AM

Session high for Sept. crude oil at 61.40, +.55.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/4/2005 10:17:42 AM

QQQQ regains the 39.85 level, with the short cycle indicators gathering at the bottom of their range. A break above 39.90 should be enough to generate the first buy signal, with confirmation above 39.94: Link

Jonathan Levinson : 8/4/2005 10:16:35 AM

Session high for ten year notes at 110 59/64, but TNX holds a 0.2 bp gain at 4.302%. This is confirmed by PcQuote as well as IB.

Linda Piazza : 8/4/2005 10:15:32 AM

The OEX is attempting that bounce now, but it's attempting it from below mid-channel Keltner support. Bears want to see it find resistance at 575.55 or, failing that, at 575.99-576.16 on 15-minute closes.

Linda Piazza : 8/4/2005 10:13:49 AM

The SOX is also drifting down to retest the former descending trendline off the 7/22 high, with that at about 476.45, and the SOX at that 477.01 level that we were watching so closely on the way higher. I'm still expecting a bounce attempt somewhere through here.

Jeff Bailey : 8/4/2005 10:13:37 AM

Yesterday's Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/4/2005 10:12:35 AM

10:00 Internals found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 8/4/2005 10:04:54 AM

BIX edging below the 200-ema today, with this average important in the BIX's trading behavior over the last couple of months. The BIX is at 360.39 with that average at 360.93. The 100-sma is just below, at 359.38. If the BIX sustains a fall beneath that, it may fall all the way to the 355 area or even the bottom of its broadening formation, now at about 351.70, but 359-360 may steady it and provide a place from which it bounces.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/4/2005 10:04:20 AM

So far, today's action has come close to gapping below yesterday's low, a lower high and lower low printed. Gap resistance below the daily pivot has held in the premarket and since the opening bell, at 39.94. Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/4/2005 10:02:35 AM

10:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 8/4/2005 10:02:20 AM

VXO 11.66, VXN 14.07

Linda Piazza : 8/4/2005 10:02:24 AM

Whoa. Not even a hint of a bounce yet on the RLX. How the mighty fall! Remember, though, that although the RLX has broken soundly out of its steepest and most unsustainable rising regression channel, from the late-June low, it's still within the longer-term one, from late April. It's now testing the 21-sma, edging about a point below it as I typed, but still close enough to be within testing territory.

Jeff Bailey : 8/4/2005 10:00:39 AM

Google (GOOG) $297.85 +0.19% ... also comes up to test WEEKLY R1 ($298.26)

Jeff Bailey : 8/4/2005 9:59:38 AM

CBOE Internet Index (INX.X) 202.70 -0.24% ... comes up to test its WEEKLY R1 (202.93)

Jonathan Levinson : 8/4/2005 9:58:31 AM

The Fed has 21B in various repos expiring today, and has just completed its deals for the day, with a total of 18.25B added, for a net drain of 2.75B.

Jeff Bailey : 8/4/2005 9:57:52 AM

S&P Banks Index (BIX.X) 360.78 -0.46% ... still no help for SPY/SPX bulls.

Linda Piazza : 8/4/2005 9:57:41 AM

SOX down into that gap from Tuesday morning now, but just barely so far.

Linda Piazza : 8/4/2005 9:57:10 AM

OEX trying to stead at mid-channel support, but that steadying is tentative. This first reversal of the day isn't seeing much of a reversal so far, a tentatively bearish sign in itself. If the OEX should bounce, first resistance is now at 576.25-576.41 on a 15-minute closing basis and bears would like to see that hold. If the OEX instead drops to 574.43, the lower channel boundary that's been so important, bears need to know ahead of time how they'll handle that test. Take partial profit and lower the stop to breakeven on the rest, perhaps? Take automatic profit and watch to see what happens next? Just lower stops?

Jonathan Levinson : 8/4/2005 9:57:02 AM

Ten year notes are stalled at unchanged, ZN futures up 1/64 and TNX up 0.2 bps at 4.302%.

Jeff Bailey : 8/4/2005 9:56:35 AM

Cisco Systems (CSCO) $19.64 +0.51% ...

Linda Piazza : 8/4/2005 9:54:15 AM

According to inside-day theory, the SOX has created a sell signal by dropping below yesterday's low. I'm not a huge fan of inside-day theory, although I do note that if the SOX stays right where it is into the close, it also will have created an evening star reversal signal. The problem with assuming that it's going to stay right here is that it's now testing top-of-the-gap potential support, the 10-sma just below that, and the former resistance of the weekly rising regression channel that's been in place since last summer. This is a test to see if the SOX's minimal intra-week breakout will hold or if the weekly candle is going to show a candle body firmly back within that channel with only a candle spike above it.

Linda Piazza : 8/4/2005 9:51:38 AM

I want to qualify that although many indices are dropping heavily, the pullbacks aren't doing much technical damage in many cases. The RUT, for example, is still soundly within its rising regression channel off the spring lows. It's got 21-sma support at 672.11, the approximate lower support for that channel. It's entering a congestion zone from the middle of July. So, although this could be the start of something bigger (for the RLX, for example), for now, it's just a pullback. The RUT is at 678.07 as I type.

Linda Piazza : 8/4/2005 9:48:26 AM

The OEX is easing below the 575.43 mid-channel level on its 15-minute chart, but hasn't closed beneath it. Those who might have entered a bearish position on a supposed rollover yesterday are still doing okay, but those who wanted a bounce from this level this morning and a new rollover, for a new entry, are in a quandary. The OEX still appears to be testing the support, but could well drop straight down to the 574.43 lower boundary of the Keltner channel that's been containing its movements for weeks. I would expect a potential bounce attempt from that level.

Linda Piazza : 8/4/2005 9:46:27 AM

RUT dropping to potential 679-ish support, at 678.78 as I type.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/4/2005 9:45:19 AM

Session high for Oct. gold at 441.10, +1.60. 441 is light resistance on the way to 444 resistance, but the daily cycle indicaotrs, approaching overbought territory on the 10-day stochastic, suggest that 444 should be a tough nut to crack: Link . Note as well that today's candle is printing almost entirely above 20-day bollinger resistance. Bulls will want to exercise caution at current levels, and keep stops close to protect profits.

Linda Piazza : 8/4/2005 9:43:44 AM

The retail sales figures have tanked the RLX this morning, finally dropping it out of its broadening formation on its 60-minute chart by a drop below 479. It's at 476.02 as I type. It's testing 60-minute 100/130-ema's. On a bounce, watch the 479-481.50 levels for potential resistance. OEX bears are glad to see this corroboration, and this high-flying index lately is showing a first sign of corroborating that it's pulling back. Don't want a quick spike right back through that broadening formation, though.

Linda Piazza : 8/4/2005 9:41:00 AM

The SOX is testing those important 15-minute 100/130-ema's, at 480.43 and 479.72, respectively, with those averages having bounced many a index over the last month. Be aware of Tuesday's big gap just below, beginning at Tuesday's open of 478.25. The SOX is at 479.74 as I type, and the top, middle or bottom of that gap could and probably will provide enough support for at least a bounce attempt. Bulls want higher highs if there is a bounce; bears, lower ones.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/4/2005 9:39:48 AM

Volume breadth is as negative as I've seen in many sessions, -2.45:1 on the NYSE and -2.26:1 on the Nasdaq, the TRIN at 1.16 and TRINQ 1.15, both at the upper end of neutral in sell-territory. The daily pivot lines up with yesterday's afternoon low at 39.94, 72 SMA resistance down to 40.01 at daily R1: Link

Linda Piazza : 8/4/2005 9:38:21 AM

The OEX has dropped all the way through to mid-channel S/R, at 575.54 on the 15-minute chart. This channel line is the once that has been provising support for a couple of days now. A 15-minute break of this would set up a first downside target of 574.45. Aggressive bears wanting a new entry and not swayed by the poor risk vs. reward parameters lately as the OEX chops around might hope for a choppy bounce during the first retracement of the day, usually beginning in about five or six minutes from now, and then a rollover, but if there's a strong burst higher, that's not going to be encouraging new bearish entries.

Jeff Bailey : 8/4/2005 9:30:33 AM

Program Trading Levels for Thursday ... HL Camp & Company has their computers set for program buying at $+3.46 and set for program selling at $+1.25.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/4/2005 9:15:40 AM

QQQQ has printed a session low at 39.86, with the short cycle indicators in a new downphase following yesterday's closing upphase. The setup is almost identical to yesterday, with the 72 SMA at 40.02 and 30 and 60 min channel support lined up at 39.86 QQQQ. The 30 and 60 min channels will have a bearish bias below the 40 level, with first confluence resistance at 39.93.

Linda Piazza : 8/4/2005 9:17:31 AM

The OEX spent another day yesterday inside the Keltner channel that's contained most of its movements for weeks now, with the channel now spanning the distance from 574.60 on the bottom and 577.98 on the top. It's narrowed its range, not trading down to the bottom of that channel, but oscillating between the top and a Keltner line currently at 575.56. All these values are applicable on 15-minute closes. With futures down this morning and bourses down across the globe, it's possible that will change, but that's what we want to see: if there's a breakdown in the indices and then a failed retest of former support.

Yesterday morning in my OEX-related update, I listed all the reasons why the 577.40-578.60-ish zone and nearby levels should be considered strong resistance on the monthly chart. I mentioned that the OEX might be preparing to burst up through that level or to roll down below it, but that we'd have to wait for first an impulsive movement one direction or another, and then a retest to see if the former S/R held, which is appropriate to the direction of the break. Until such an event occurs, OEX traders are just giving away their money as the OEX rattles around within that channel in a sort of directionless manner. It's climbing, but climbing slowly within a slightly rising regression channel. If you don't have to be in the market, and particularly not in the OEX, then wait for a breakout that travels strongly in one direction and then comes back for a retest. I haven't changed my opinion since yesterday. Those who must trade can try trading the channel, but that hasn't worked well for a couple of days. Perhaps it will work better today, as perhaps the OEX will roll down through that channel and all the way out to the downside, but we've had other mornings when that seemed a possibility, too. However, if the OEX should gap down, be aware that you'd likely be entering near the middle of a choppy channel. Those who are aggressive can try the breakout plays, but the upside ones are subject to more choppiness as they deal with more resistance just after a breakout.

Here's my gut impression. For a while now, many of our fast-moving sectors have been doing just that: moving fast and moving unrelentingly to the upside. Many have moved past important resistance levels. That's bullish. However, many have not yet retested their breakouts. And that means the bullishness must be tempered by the knowledge that there might be a lot of weak bullish hands. This isn't just happening here, in the SOX or the RUT or the RLX. It's been happening across the globe. And, at some time or another, there needs to be a pullback to retest former resistance and see if it holds. I've been watching the Nikkei, printing one reversal signal after another without reversing. It was just pushing unrelentingly toward 12,000, which it hit night before last. That began a retracement that's looking a bit more impulsive. My page listing foreign indices was bleeding red this morning. No serious damage has been done, but it's possible (just possible, not even probable yet) that some deeper pullbacks have begun that will tell us where true strong support lies and give us an idea if we'll see a seasonal swoop lower or just a moderate pullback. So, that possibility exists, but hasn't been proven yet. I'd still be careful with longs, although I believe it's possible that bulls haven't yet given up, even for the short-term.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/4/2005 8:31:58 AM

QQQQ is down to a 16 cent decline at 39.90, TNX holding its 0.3 bp gain, while gold and silver are recovering off their lows, still lightly negative.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/4/2005 8:31:00 AM

Headlines:

U.S. CONTINUING JOBLESS CLAIMS FALL 18,000 TO 2.58 MLN

U.S. INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS FALL 1,000 TO 312,000

U.S. INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS LOWER THAN EXPECTED

U.S. 4-WEEK AVG. JOBLESS CLAIMS FALL 2,250 TO 316,750

Linda Piazza : 8/4/2005 8:28:45 AM

Thanks, Jonathan, for the notation on the ECB. I was out jogging with the dogs. As had been expected and hoped, the Bank of England reduced interest rates by 0.25 percentage points to 4.5%. Link to the BOE's statement here Link

Jonathan Levinson : 8/4/2005 8:27:00 AM

Ten year notes are holding a 1/32 loss ahead of the Initial Claims data, TNX up .3 bps at 4.303%.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/4/2005 7:47:39 AM

Headline:

EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK KEEPS RATES AT 2%

Jonathan Levinson : 8/4/2005 7:51:14 AM

Interactive Brokers has a notice that "data issues have been resolved." It took me several minutes and one restart to get the TWS working this morning, something which until yesterday had never occurred. So, if using IB and you missed yesterday's "festivities," be careful and enter hard stops on open positions, just in case of another outage. IB system stage page refreshable at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 8/4/2005 7:39:34 AM

Equities are down, ES trading 1244.25, NQ 1626.5, YM 10678 and QQQQ -.14 at 39.92. Gold is down 1.1 to 438.40, silver -.056 to 7.25, ten year notes flat at 110 53/64 and crude oil +.475 at 61.325.

We await the 8:30 release of Initial Claims for the week ended July 30th, est. 315K, prior 310K.

Linda Piazza : 8/4/2005 7:06:01 AM

Good morning. The Nikkei gapped lower and ended almost 100 points lower. Bourses across the globe are awash in red, including European bourses, where rate decisions by the Bank of England and ECB are expected shortly. Our futures are negative, too. As of 7:02 EST, gold was down $0.80, and crude, up $0.36 to $61.24. More detail about Asian and European markets follows in succeeding paragraphs.

After printing a doji at 12,000 resistance on Wednesday, the Nikkei gapped lower Thursday morning. Having dropped almost 160 points by midmorning, it spent the rest of the day climbing off that low and erasing at least some of the losses. It ended the day down by 98.49 points or 0.82%, at 11,883.31. As I reported yesterday, a political storm brews in Japan over the postal privatization bill that Prime Minister Koizumi wants passed. He wants the vote held tomorrow, and threatens to dissolve the lower house and step down himself if it does not pass. The vote may not take place Friday, as he wants, as there's some maneuvering to postpone it until next week. Market watchers express concern about the changes that might take place in the market if Koizumi resigns. Nippon Telegraph & Telephone Corp., Toyota Motor Corp., and Trend Micro Inc. all reported earnings that included declining quarterly profits, adding to the negative sentiment. All three turned lower in early trading, although Toyota's report had also included strong revenue growth. Automakers and banks headed lower.

Some other Asian markets had started in positive territory, but almost all ended up in the red. The Taiwan Weighted lost 0.15%, and South Korea's Kospi fell 0.51%. Singapore's Straits Times declined 0.12%, and Hong Kong's Hang Seng eased 0.05%. China's Shanghai Composite fell 0.46%.

European markets trade lower this morning as they await today's ECB and BOE decisions. As I reported yesterday, the ECB is expected to leave rates unchanged, while the Bank of England is expected to lower rates. Some fear that some recent economic data will stay the hand of the Bank of England, however, and a decision not to lower rates would be a disappointment. In other economic news, Germany's June Factory Orders jumped 2.4% month over month and 6.3% year over year, with domestic demand driving the increase. Foreign demand increased 0.8% with May's increase having been at 4.2%. Domestic demand for capital goods, in specific, was held to have prompted this higher-than-expected number.

Bank stocks lead the European bourses lower. Reporting banks included France's Society Generale and the Royal Bank of Scotland, with the Royal Bank's 18% rise in adjusted pretax profit coming in slightly below estimates. Canadian fund manager CI Financial Management Inc. has dropped its hostile bid for Amvescap. Some oil and gas majors dropped, with Total reporting that hydrocarbon production fell more than expected although net income rose more than expected. Total has also decided to withdraw from an application for a position in Russia's Novatek. After naming its new chairman beginning in June 2006, shares of Royal Dutch Shell also fell, but the oil majors were also declining after crude backed off the most recent high. Some companies with stocks trading in the green in early trading included reporting companies Linde, a German industrial gases and engineering group, GKN, a U.K. engineering and automotive parts group, and Imperial Chemical Industrials, a U.K.chemicals company.

As of 6:51 EST, the FTSE 100 was lower by 21.50 points or 0.40%, at 5,310.80. The CAC 40 was lower by 38.90 points or 0.87%, at 4,456.58. The DAX was lower by 46.06 points or 0.94%, at 4,877.06. The moment I heard a commentator on CNBC Europe say a couple of days ago that, with the DAX above 4,900, most market participants thought that it was no longer a matter of "if" the DAX hit 5,000, but "when," I thought that it must be getting time for the DAX to at least pull back, although such contrarian sentiment indicators aren't good market timing devices. The DAX may hit 5,000 any day now, perhaps even propelled by its reaction to the ECB decision, whatever that might be, but in true contrarian manner, it seemed to start pulling back from about the time that statement was made.

Jeff Bailey : 8/4/2005 3:22:48 AM

Internet Initiative (IIJI) $10.17 +1.19% ... Late Wednesday announces ADS ratio change and Stock Split ... story at this Link ... I'm mentally exhausted at this point, but it looks to me like a 4:1 split (number of shares outstanding multiplied by four).

Thoughts and questions in my mind. Is this why the company wanted to do an IPO in Japan, but no interest from market participants in that country had the company cancelling the offering? The 4:1 split gives lower price look to $/yen, perhaps then attracts more Japanese investors?

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