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OI Technical Staff : 8/5/2005 9:59:59 PM

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Jeff Bailey : 8/5/2005 7:57:28 PM

Closing U.S. Market Watch at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/5/2005 6:01:27 PM

Closing Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/5/2005 5:15:29 PM

Baidu.com (BIDU) ... 5-minute interval chart at this Link ... crazy, crazy, crazy.

Jeff Bailey : 8/5/2005 4:31:42 PM

Weekly Trade Blotter of CLOSED Trades at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/5/2005 4:30:23 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles found at this Link ... Today's Activity ... Swing traded long the QQQQ at $39.75, stop goes $39.40, targeting $40.10.

Close out the two (2) long puts for the iShare Russell 2000 Growth IWO Aug. $65 Puts (IWO-TM) at the bid of $0.20 ($-1.45, or -87.88%)

Linda Piazza : 8/5/2005 4:01:30 PM

Here's how the SOX looks now with respect to that rising regression channel on its weekly chart, although I caution that it's possible to draw this channel a little different. For now, the channel's resistance appears to be holding, with the possibility of a cycle down through the channel again: Link

Linda Piazza : 8/5/2005 3:58:43 PM

Evening star formation confirmed on the RUT's weekly chart. Spinning top candle on the SOX's weekly chart. Long red candle on the TRAN's weekly chart, but without a drop into the close, it won't have retraced more than 50% of the week before last's tall white candle, although it came close. Not quite a classic evening-star formation there, then. Evening star confirmed on the RLX. Just a few of the recent high-fliers and their weekly candles.

Linda Piazza : 8/5/2005 3:47:51 PM

Since 10:15, the OEX has traded in a less than 2-point range.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/5/2005 3:39:40 PM

Thanks, Barb. In my 3:32:21, "QQQQ is testing its previous high at 39.59..."

Linda Piazza : 8/5/2005 3:35:23 PM

OEX now perhaps forming into a triangle at the bottom of the drop. The usual resolution would be a downside break when these occur at the bottom of a drop, but we'll have to see what happens.

Bears with profits, you have a decision to make by the end of the day. Are you going to hold over the weekend? If you took partial profits as advised, that decision is easier, but also factor in whether your options are front month options or not, and what a weekend's worth of premium decay will do to those option prices, especially if the OEX decides to bounce Monday morning. I think it's likely that 573-574 or so is going to be retested at some point, but also likely that prices will roll down from there, but there are just no guarantees. I think I'd probably be likely to take profit on all or most of my position and then watch for my next entry. If you intended this to be a long-term entry, for more than a day or two, and don't have front-month options, you might make a different decision.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/5/2005 3:32:20 PM

QQQQ is testing previous high at 39.89, the short cycles lined up in oversold. The intraday cycles are all overdue for a bounce within the bearish daily and weekly downphases. The first sign of trouble for bears will be a break of descending trendline resistance at 39.61-.62: Link

Linda Piazza : 8/5/2005 3:24:02 PM

RUT trading sideways/sideways-up while the RSI rises on the 15-minute chart. That will begin to look bearish if the RUT can't rise with the RSI.

Linda Piazza : 8/5/2005 3:22:27 PM

The SOX is doing better at rising than are some other indices, but it's still basically trading sideways. While it's doing so, though, support is trying to firm up beneath the current 471.29 position. That support is near 470 and then at 467.68. Closest resistance at 473.03 and then at 475.60-476.17. I think the appropriate right shoulder area for the SOX is probably 477-478 or below, but symmetry with the left shoulder suggests that it might go on testing the right shoulder area for up to a week before SOX investors decide whether to invalidate the formation or confirm it. I'm rather leaning toward the confirmation version myself, but the SOX tried to burn me last week with a bear call spread--hasn't yet although I could feel the heat, for sure--and I'm not counting out any possibility. It pushed through several layers of resistance that I thought would likely stop it, including that 480-482 zone.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/5/2005 3:17:12 PM

Volume is running well below yesterday's sub-average 72.1M QQQQ shares, so far 56.3M traded. There are two schools of thought about volume on declines- the first being that a decline needs high volume for confirmation, the second that low volume is more bearish because it releases less liquidity with which to subsequently buy.

Jeff Bailey : 8/5/2005 3:13:09 PM

03:00 Internals found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 8/5/2005 3:06:45 PM

In a familiar action, but on the flip side of what we've been seeing lately, the OEX's potential inverse H&S is taking too long to confirm, the right shoulder extending too far in time, so that the formation is now likely invalidated. The OEX is sort of sinking along with the Keltner lines currently from 570.53-570.72, but not ready yet to give up its fight to break above that resistance, and so not sinking yet.

Jeff Bailey : 8/5/2005 3:03:44 PM

03:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 8/5/2005 2:59:20 PM

Interesting to note that neither the SPX nor the OEX has broken out of its rising regression channels off the spring lows. Neither has the RLX, for that matter, although it definitely broke below the support of its steepest rising channel from the June low. In fact, the RLX sits right on its lower boundary for its rising regression channel, with that boundary about about 466.

The RUT is a different story, having broken below its channel yesterday, now testing 659-660-ish support. If the RUT should rise into a right shoulder for an inverse H&S, that right shoulder would likely be a retest of the channel's former support.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/5/2005 2:56:44 PM

Currently, the indices are holding at or below Monday's lows, setting up the toppy weekly cycle for a gravestone doji print. On the daily chart, the oscillators have rolled back over after stalling this week, resulting in a bearish divergent downphase now in progress. Opposed to that are the oversold and trending intraday oscillators, with the 30 and 60 min oscillators flattened and buried in oversold territory.

Jeff Bailey : 8/5/2005 2:48:37 PM

C'mon GOOG $293.65 -1.40% ... are you going to let these little guys out do you?

Jeff Bailey : 8/5/2005 2:47:54 PM

Sina (SINA) $29.88 +2.75% ... trying to do a mini-BIDU.

Linda Piazza : 8/5/2005 2:46:50 PM

The OEX is trying to round up into a right shoulder for the potential inverse H&S, but it isn't getting far yet.

Jeff Bailey : 8/5/2005 2:41:06 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/5/2005 2:36:53 PM

Little buy program again ... QQQQ $39.58. Not a buy program premium (enough to create arbitrage between cash and futures), but a buy program. You can see them (buy and sell) if you've got a premium chart opened up and looking at it.

Jeff Bailey : 8/5/2005 2:34:31 PM

QQQQ $39.53 -0.37% ... here's my 5-minute interval chart at this Link with DAILY Pivot levels turned on.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/5/2005 2:30:31 PM

Crude oil surged into the close, finishing +.925 at 62.30, off a high of 62.35.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/5/2005 2:28:51 PM

QQQQ is holding just below 72 SMA resistance at 39.52, but keeping well clear of the previous low at daily S1 and 30 min channel support at 39.43. The 30 min channel has yet to turn back down, with price holding so close to the 72 SMA: Link

Jonathan Levinson : 8/5/2005 2:26:55 PM

Here's the description of the pivot calculation I'm using in Quotetracker:

Very similar to the standard Pivot Points. The differemce is that the initial Pivot Point is defined as the average of the high, low of the previous day and double the opening price of current day (H+L+O+O)/4.

Because the program doesn't distinguish between futures and equities, I believe it's using the closing print of the day, which would either be 4:15 or even the final print of the night session.

Linda Piazza : 8/5/2005 2:24:35 PM

RUT retesting the LOD. No new LOD yet.

Linda Piazza : 8/5/2005 2:23:03 PM

The OEX hasn't invalidated its potential inverse H&S, but that right shoulder is dipping farther than bulls would like. Bears want a drop back to lower Keltner support, now at 569.58.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/5/2005 2:21:57 PM

Good question, Jeff. I believe it's the 4:15, but will dig around Quotetracker's site. It's based on the "Woodies'" calculation, which incorporates the opening print as well.

Jeff Bailey : 8/5/2005 2:20:30 PM

Jonathan ... per your 02:03:14 post ... does your charting service use the 04:00 close, or 04:15 trade to derive the DAILY Pivot level?

Jonathan Levinson : 8/5/2005 2:20:04 PM

Session low for ten year nots at 110 1/16, TNX breaking 4.4% at last, +8.3 bps at 4.402%.

Jeff Bailey : 8/5/2005 2:17:18 PM

BIDU 127 +371% ... I'm dumping 50 shares here. Out of control

Jonathan Levinson : 8/5/2005 2:14:53 PM

Volume breadth has slid to -4.03:1 on the NYSE, -2.2:1 on the Nasdaq. TRIN 1.02, TRINQ .84, very tame readings relative to volume breadth.

Linda Piazza : 8/5/2005 2:14:00 PM

OEX turning down again, but there's the possibility of an inverse H&S forming here, with the head at today's low, shoulder level near the current 570.56. On the way up, we saw a lot of H&S's being invalidated, so there's the possibility of a lot of these inverse ones being invalidated, too. All we know now is that bulls were able to muster enough strength to create this potential formation. A new LOD will invalidate it, of course.

Jeff Bailey : 8/5/2005 2:12:35 PM

NASDAQ 100 Heatmap at this Link ... breadth negative at 70:30

Jeff Bailey : 8/5/2005 2:11:20 PM

02:00 Internals found at this Link ... same number of new lows at the NASDAQ as all of yesterday. I'm thinking today's lows become important, if broken, then majors probably continue to sell to the close.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/5/2005 2:10:12 PM

Crude oil is coiling here, holding a 50 cent gain at 61.875 with 22 minutes left in the session: Link

Jonathan Levinson : 8/5/2005 2:03:14 PM

QQQQ is breaking 72 SMA support here but on much lighter volume, still a risk of a whipsaw back up. But the short cycle indicators are starting to roll, and a sell signal appears imminent. If so, 30 min channel support is at daily S1, 39.46, and a successful retest of that level would be more bullish than bearish- always provided that it holds: Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/5/2005 2:02:28 PM

02:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 8/5/2005 1:51:25 PM

OEX retesting the 570.88-570.96 support. OEX at 570.85 as I type, with this 15-minute period only about 1/3 of the way through.

Linda Piazza : 8/5/2005 1:50:18 PM

The RUT's bounce is not impressive, and 658-660 looks possible if it breaks to a new LOD.

Jeff Bailey : 8/5/2005 1:50:19 PM

I understand now Jane, then it would be bulls that are being baited? I'll admit that that chart looks just like it did yesteray.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/5/2005 1:45:29 PM

QQQQ has descending resistnce from Wednesday's high at 39.66-.68, lining up with daily pivot resistance and the objective from that rough reverse h&s. The short cycle upphase is approaching overbought territory, and that level is looking like a tough nut to crack. So long as the price holds above the 72 SMA at 39.52, however, the intraday benefit of the doubt will go to the bulls. Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/5/2005 1:45:13 PM

BIDU $100.08 +270% ... new high of day. Drag your retracement up a bit.

Jeff Bailey : 8/5/2005 1:39:25 PM

Computer Technology Index (XCI.X) ... 30-minute interval chart at this Link ... in the green, but juuuust under WEEKLY R2.

Linda Piazza : 8/5/2005 1:38:11 PM

The RUT still isn't mounting much of a bounce.

Linda Piazza : 8/5/2005 1:37:44 PM

OEX tentatively remaining above the Keltner support down to 570.95, and then lower, at 569.72-570.22. The Keltner line that's actually been turning the OEX back since yesterday morning is now at 572.76.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/5/2005 1:36:14 PM

Stepping away for 5 minutes.

Jeff Bailey : 8/5/2005 1:36:02 PM

QQQQ updated 30-minute interval chart at this Link ... thinking out loud ... I shouldn't have profiled a QQQQ long under that 21-pd SMA and QQQQ was pushed quickly back under DAILY Pivot. That becomes the "test for strength" at this point.

Jane Fox : 8/5/2005 1:33:46 PM

Jeff I was referring to the Farside cartoon of a dog trying to entice a kitty into a dryer with the sign "Car Fud." What I was alluding to was price may be enticing the longs but that chart I showed was the dryer. It was a lot funnier from this side.

Jeff Bailey : 8/5/2005 1:27:57 PM

Jane ... are you using a poor little kitty to bait bears? (future monitor post 12:40:16) and her chart at this Link

Linda Piazza : 8/5/2005 1:26:45 PM

DJUSHB trying to bounce from just above 1000, having hit a LOD of 1007.64. Dropped all the way to the 50-sma today, piercing it. At 1020.76 as I type.

Jeff Bailey : 8/5/2005 1:24:58 PM

Computer Technology Index (XCI.X) 734.97 +0.12% ... first equity sector to edge green in U.S. Market Watch.

Jeff Bailey : 8/5/2005 1:22:42 PM

It's early, but one of the tools used by bear hunters at this Link ... QQQQ $39.62 -0.12%

Jonathan Levinson : 8/5/2005 1:22:22 PM

Session low for ten year notes here at 110 7/64, TNX up 7.4 bps at 4.393%.

Linda Piazza : 8/5/2005 1:22:31 PM

Studying the SOX's 60-minute chart shows me that bulls and bears both could be in for another painful week next week. The SOX spent 7/20-7/27 forming the left shoulder of its potential H&S. It could take about the same number of sessions forming the right shoulder, rebounding first and then consolidating at the shoulder area, before bulls and bears know if it's going to round down again, rise into an equal high instead, or just keep going.

Linda Piazza : 8/5/2005 1:18:35 PM

The SOX, too, has a potential H&S on top of its chart, best seen on the 60-minute chart, perhaps. The neckline is currently at about today's low, the right shoulder area at about 476-478, although 480 probably wouldn't invalidate the formation, and the head at this week's highs.

Linda Piazza : 8/5/2005 1:16:47 PM

A little early for a stop-running play, but the OEX just bounced and closed above 571.06 Keltner resistance, back inside that Keltner channel that's contained it so long. Watch for the possibility of a quick reversal in case this was just a stop-running move, but if 571.06 holds as support on 15-minute closes, 572.84 resistance may be next to be tested.

Jeff Bailey : 8/5/2005 1:14:16 PM

Little buy program underway here ... QQQQ $39.61

Linda Piazza : 8/5/2005 1:14:12 PM

The TRAN, too, drops today, down toward the 21-sma at 3719.81, with the TRAN at 3742.72. There's historical support near that 21-ema, too, so watch for the possibility that the TRAN could bounce again, into a possible right shoulder for a H&S formation. I'm seeing lots of these possibilities on charts, so bears need to be prepared for a bounce into a right shoulder, if that should happen, knowing how they'll handle such bounces. Some might choose to exit the trade and some to weather the right-shoulder bounce. The TRAN doesn't always do the right-shoulder thing, sometimes just dropping straight after the head is formed, and sometimes climbing right after the head is formed for an inverse H&S, but I'm looking for at least some of these indices to try a rise into a right shoulder or a bounce up to test broken resistance for those that didn't form a potential H&S. In fact, I'm looking forward to seeing such a bounce and seeing where it heads, because that--and not this steep drop--is going to tell us whether an intermediate-term top has been put in. We've seen some seemingly steep drops before, and some seeming reversal signals set up, too, but then just as that edge-of-the-cliff plays verges on seeing indices drop, they shoot up to new highs. I've been noticing some signs of a potential intermediate-term top to be put in, as have some other writers, of course, but I want proof in the form of a retest of former support to see it now hold as resistance. Of course, that said, the indices will now just drop and drop and drop without ever retesting.

Jeff Bailey : 8/5/2005 1:13:30 PM

01:00 Internals found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 8/5/2005 1:12:39 PM

QQQQ breaks the previous high and probably reverse h&s neckline on a small burst of volume. Bulls need to hold above 39.53-.55 to target the implied reverse h&s objective of 39.67. Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/5/2005 1:05:03 PM

01:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/5/2005 1:00:24 PM

Baidu.com (BIDU) $94.69 +251.51% ... here's a 10-minute chart and I've placed an initial PINK day's range retracement on it at this Link

Linda Piazza : 8/5/2005 12:59:55 PM

Stronger climb on the OEX. It's testing that Keltner resistance at 570.69 with 571.17-571.42 the next resistance. It's actually the resistance currently at 572.98 that's been turning the OEX lower (on 15-minute closes) since yesterday morning, however, for those bears who want to risk that much of rise and that much of their gains. If you entered this morning, though, you might not want to risk that much of a rise. The stop you choose depends on your entry, your risk tolerance, and how short a term you intended the trade to be.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/5/2005 12:55:43 PM

Volume breadth is back down to -3.75:1 on the NYSE, -2.18:1 on the Nasdaq. TNX is holding at 4.388%, crude oil +.525 at 61.90.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/5/2005 12:52:49 PM

QQQQ's not rising, but it's not declining either, printing what could be the right side of a sloppy reverse h&s at the bottom of today's decline. The neckline would be at 39.53-.55: Link . A break of 39.46 would violate right shoulder support and invalidate the pattern.

Tab Gilles : 8/5/2005 12:50:53 PM

Time Warner (TWX) Follow-up to Monday and Wednesday's posts on TWX. I'd questioned if TWX was ready to breakout or not from it's downtrend channel. Today's strong move up over 200-ma is a bullish move, looking for a retest of December '04 high. Link Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/5/2005 12:49:52 PM

Google IPO trade history ... here's a 10-minute interval bar chart of how GOOG traded its first few days of IPO at this Link ... If looking to trade BIDU anytime soon, this might be helpful.

Linda Piazza : 8/5/2005 12:41:25 PM

Stepping away for a few minutes.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/5/2005 12:39:13 PM

QQQQ rises in a short cycle upphase, the 30 min channel still flat but with a bullish bias above the 72 SMA at 39.65. Volume is running slightly heavier today but still light, volume breadth up to -2.27:1 on the Nasdaq. Next confluence is at 39.55-.59: Link

Linda Piazza : 8/5/2005 12:38:09 PM

Let's try the OEX and get the right chart: The OEX is bouncing up to test 570.76 first Keltner resistance, with further resistance up to 571.42. The OEX is at 570.49 as I type, with Keltner support trying to firm near 570.

Linda Piazza : 8/5/2005 12:36:54 PM

My 12:29 post referred to the SOX and not the OEX! Sorry. I'll correct that post, but it will then change the time stamp.

Jeff Bailey : 8/5/2005 12:36:25 PM

Google (GOOG) $293.78 -1.32% ... intra-day chart observation may tie in with today's IPO of BIDU. That sudden drop in GOOG comes as BIDU opened for trade.

It would have to be my thought that some GOOG bulls dumped their stock, perhaps to pay for a long in BIDU.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/5/2005 12:30:05 PM

QQQQ breaks above 72 SMA resistance here for the first time since 10AM: Link

Linda Piazza : 8/5/2005 12:37:18 PM

SOX bouncing up to test first Keltner resistance, at 469.59, although it's more of a sideways move into that resistance, with next resistance at 470.82-471.25 on a 15-minute closing basis. SOX at 469.48. Support is trying to firm, down to 467.94.

Jeff Bailey : 8/5/2005 12:28:32 PM

WellPoint (WLP) $71.19 -1.98% ...

Jeff Bailey : 8/5/2005 12:26:05 PM

QQQQ $39.51 -0.40% ... session low at this point still $39.43.

Tab Gilles : 8/5/2005 12:25:51 PM

iShares Lehman 20+ Year Treas Bond (TLT) Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/5/2005 12:27:43 PM

INDU/DIA/SPX/SPY/OEX all at/near WEEKLY S1s.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/5/2005 12:19:25 PM

Volume breadth is back down to -3.98:1 on the NYSE and -2.16:1 on the Nasdaq as price pulls back from another bounce attempt.

Jeff Bailey : 8/5/2005 12:18:07 PM

Baidu.com (BIDU) $79.43 +193% ... China-based Internet search company gets a nice "pop" on its Initial Public Offering (IPO) debut. Priced 4 million shares at $27.

Google (GOOG) $294.00 -1.30% ... owns 2.6% of the China-based search engine.

Jeff Bailey : 8/5/2005 12:14:56 PM

12:00 Internals found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 8/5/2005 12:11:02 PM

Session low for ten year notes at 110 9/64, TNX at 4.39%, +7.1 bps. Crude oil is up .45 at 61.85, 42.5 cents off its low.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/5/2005 12:10:02 PM

Back to find QQQQ returning to its previous high from a double bottom at 39.43 on bullish wavelet and short cycle divergences: Link . 72 SMA resistance is down to 39.52, above which the 30 min channel downphase will stall and the short cycle upphase confirm.

Jeff Bailey : 8/5/2005 12:05:41 PM

12:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 8/5/2005 12:02:34 PM

OEX again testing Keltner support on the 15-minute chart, with that at 570.05 on the 15-minute chart. So far today, the OEX has just been testing this support and then bouncing up to first resistance and coming back. Some other indices have shown a complete breakdown, though, and it's possible the OEX could, too. This is why I counseled that those who had held onto partial positions not automatically exit them but just follow the OEX lower with stops and let price action tell you when you should be stopped. However, I did think that partial profits ought to be taken, if you haven't already done that. The possibility of a bounce exists anywhere near here, but not even the mighty SOX can mount an effective bounce. OEX at 570.06 as I type.

Tab Gilles : 8/5/2005 11:59:58 AM

General Electric (GE) Link

Linda Piazza : 8/5/2005 11:59:17 AM

The Wilshire 5000 is seeing big-time follow-through after yesterday's completion of an evening-star formation on its daily chart. At 12,251.43, it's dropping into potential support, extending down to 12,190.11, the site of the 30-sma. Dropped further as I typed, down to test daily Keltner support at 12,236.41.

Jeff Bailey : 8/5/2005 11:59:14 AM

TRIN 1.01 ...

Jeff Bailey : 8/5/2005 11:58:07 AM

S&P Banks Index (BIX.X) 355.77 -1.27% ... sets up for test of its WEEKLY S2 355.33. Cut through WEEKLY S1 like it wasn't there.

Jeff Bailey : 8/5/2005 11:56:43 AM

CBOE Internet Index (INX.X) 199.48 -0.64% ... also a session low and slips below WEEKLY Pivot (199.71)

Jeff Bailey : 8/5/2005 11:54:36 AM

Google (GOOG) $294.82 -0.96% ...

Linda Piazza : 8/5/2005 11:50:52 AM

SOX still trying to bounce. Testing first Keltner resistance at 470.02 on 15-minute closes, with the SOX at 469.83. Next resistance at 471.55 on 15-minute closes, and then it begins to thin.

Linda Piazza : 8/5/2005 11:49:55 AM

RUT dropped to the 30-sma at 663.27, with the RUT now at 663.02. RUT 659-660 might be possible today, although a bounce could of course come at any time.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/5/2005 11:47:59 AM

Stepping away for 10 minutes.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/5/2005 11:43:52 AM

With the longer intraday cycles joining the short cycle in trending oversold territory, it's trickier than usual to scope for a bottom. It would be a lot easier if there were a strong selling climax, instead of the weak bounces that fail to slightly lower lows. One will eventually stick, but it's a tougher guess with this gradual drip/stairstep lower.

Linda Piazza : 8/5/2005 11:43:41 AM

RUT still diving. The RUT has been a pretty good guide today as to whether SOX bounces are likely to hold. The SOX is trying to steady now, so I don't know whether the RUT-indicator is going to continue to work. The RUT has fallen out of its ascending regression channel off the April low, but I always said that I thought we needed the confirmation of a fall beneath the 30-sma, too, with that at 663.29 and the RUT currently at 663.41. A scenario I could see playing out over the next week is for the RUT to drop to 658 or so and then bounce, with bears hoping the bounce is into a lower high for a H&S completion and with bulls hoping for a higher high. The DJUSHB's confirmation of a double-top formation on the daily chart today lends some credence to the possibility that some of these high-fliers may be topping out, but a retest will tell us more.

Tab Gilles : 8/5/2005 11:37:43 AM

$NDX Link

Jonathan Levinson : 8/5/2005 11:37:34 AM

Session low for QQQQ at 39.44, the short cycle indicators and channel rolling back over. 30 min channel support is at 39.37: Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/5/2005 11:35:23 AM

Sell Program Premiums have been found at times of (2-minute intervals beginning) 09:36, 09:54, 10:00, 10:22, 11:26

Tab Gilles : 8/5/2005 11:36:34 AM

$SPX Link $NYA Link

$COMPQ Link $NDX Link

Linda Piazza : 8/5/2005 11:34:50 AM

OEX below 571 now, testing 15-minute Keltner support at 570.13. Resistance at 571.34-572.17.

Linda Piazza : 8/5/2005 11:33:02 AM

I mentioned in my 10:11 post that the SOX looked vulnerable to lower levels according to the daily Keltner chart, now down to 463.59, although perhaps not today. Today is looking like more of a possibility, but the SOX is trying mightily to steady.

Jeff Bailey : 8/5/2005 11:29:22 AM

QQQQ $39.47 -0.50% ... 30-minute interval chart at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 8/5/2005 11:28:33 AM

Volume breadth down to -3.77:1 on the Nasdaq, -1.77:1 on the NYSE.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/5/2005 11:21:18 AM

QQQQ's short cycle is on a buy signal, but price isn't cooperating. 39.53 has held back the advance, but bears need to revisit the low in order to turn the indicators back down. So far, the upphase has been sideways and corrective. Link

Jonathan Levinson : 8/5/2005 11:17:22 AM

Session low for Oct. gold here, -.90 at 439.60, TNX back up to 4.386%.

Linda Piazza : 8/5/2005 11:16:11 AM

The SOX isn't yet doing much bouncing, although it's trying to steady. Steadying while 15-minute RSI rises won't be a bullish thing, however, if it doesn't do more than steady through the entire rise. Nearest Keltner support at 468.97 on 15-minute closes. Nearest resistance at 470.54 and then 472.15, and that resistance has so far held all day today. SOX at 469.32.

Jeff Bailey : 8/5/2005 11:09:33 AM

11:00 Internals found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 8/5/2005 11:09:25 AM

OEX trying to climb. Next resistance at 571.88-572.02 on the 15-minute Keltner chart.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/5/2005 11:06:14 AM

The short cycle indicators are turning up here, but as the cycle's in an oversold trending move, bulls will want to see a break above the 72 SMA at QQQQ 39.60 for confirmation of any strength. Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/5/2005 11:02:01 AM

11:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 8/5/2005 10:56:13 AM

SOX pausing at its Keltner support on the 15-minute chart, trying to bounce. Next Keltner resistance at 471.19 and then at 472.28-473.44.

Jeff Bailey : 8/5/2005 10:55:48 AM

VIX.X 12.39 -1.03% ... I'm showing current intra-day range of 12.15-12.56. Still "bearish" in my opinion, or negative. (based on pivots)

Linda Piazza : 8/5/2005 10:54:28 AM

Readers must have been frustrated with me over the last several weeks when I kept counseling against participating in upside breakout plays on the OEX, as I didn't have any confidence they would work. None of them did, although trading the channel's parameters did for a while, but I kept looking at this big red band (top of the chart) that's been on my chart through months and months, and not seeing a good risk vs. reward scenario for such plays. I also had been watching the BIX fall through a similar formation on its daily chart, all the way down to retest its 200-sma, and thought it possible that as soon as the RLX paused a little, the OEX might follow the BIX's example. I still think that's possible, with the 200-sma the blue line on that chart. Now, though, you can see that the OEX is testing historical support at the 571 level (thin horizontal red line). This could be a bounce point, although OEX bears would prefer a drop at least to the (pink) 50-sma. Link

Jonathan Levinson : 8/5/2005 10:52:23 AM

QQQQ's 60 min cycle is buried in oversold, and the 30 min cycle is just rolling over from its attempted upphase. This is verging on a trending move if the bulls can't hold the 30 min channel bottom at 39.40, and a bounce above 39.55 is needed to regain former double bottom support. The 72 SMA is down to 39.60 here, above which the intraday cycle downphases will stall. Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/5/2005 10:50:04 AM

Current OPEN MM Profiles found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 8/5/2005 10:45:10 AM

The RLX approaches the bottom of its long-term ascending regression channel, with that bottom at about 462.15 and the RLX at 467.62, having tumbled all the way from the 7/29 high of 489.34. Watch the bottom of the channel level for either a bounce or a breakdown out of that channel.

Linda Piazza : 8/5/2005 10:42:51 AM

SOX retesting the Keltner downside target and potential support, now at 469.27 on a 15-minute closing basis. Closes below this would create a breakdown signal, but bears would be satisfied if the SOX just continued to find resistance on 15-minute closes from 471.76-472.70.

Linda Piazza : 8/5/2005 10:40:52 AM

That OEX 571 level is still providing some support. Nearest resistance at 571.23 on a 15-minute closing basis, then 572.35. Nearest support at the downside target, now at 570.34.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/5/2005 10:40:03 AM

Volume breadth is -2.8:1 on the NYSE and -1.6:1 on the Nasdaq, but the TRIN and TRINQ are in perfect neutral territory, .87 and .69 respectively.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/5/2005 10:37:00 AM

Crude oil is back up to the highs, +.725 at 62.10 here. TNX has pulled back from 4.4% resistance, currently +5.9 bps at 4.378%.

Jeff Bailey : 8/5/2005 10:30:56 AM

Thank you! to Ameritrade's desk and Market Maker Brut, LLC for the work (Ameritrade) and cooperation (Brut, LLC) for busting a trade I made in last night's extended session. I made a "far away" keypunch error for shares of Red Robin Gourmet Burgers (RRGB) that could have cost me a couple thousand dollars at current price, but thank to Ameritrades desk working on my behalf, and Brut cooperation, the trade was busted. BRUT didn't have to bust the trade and they could have kept a very nice profit.

Too often, Market Makers are given a "bad name," but they aren't all bad.

Linda Piazza : 8/5/2005 10:30:00 AM

The DJUSHB has soundly confirmed its double-top formation on the daily chart, dropping below 1050, too. It's out of its rising regression channel. This may have switched to a market now where bounces are sold. I watch this not because I trade the homebuilders, but because it tells me something about market sentiment to watch these high-flying indices. DJUSHB at 1033.18 as I type.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/5/2005 10:28:52 AM

VXO 11.90, VXN 15.38

Linda Piazza : 8/5/2005 10:28:27 AM

RLX and BIX still falling.

Linda Piazza : 8/5/2005 10:28:12 AM

RUT still falling.

Linda Piazza : 8/5/2005 10:27:45 AM

If I had a bearish OEX position and didn't take partial profit yesterday, I think I'd be doing that about now. For those who did so yesterday, I don't think I'd be automatically taking the rest of the my profit here, in case we have the bottom fall out, but I do think I'd be aggressively lowering my stops. Let prices take you out and tell you when there's a strong-enough bounce. What's strong enough? Depends on your trade management rules. Next 15-minute Keltner resistane at 572.36-572.65 on 15-minute closes, then 573.90-574.91.

Jeff Bailey : 8/5/2005 10:24:18 AM

Yesterday's Internals found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 8/5/2005 10:24:12 AM

OEX testing 571 support, just below it as I type. Fifteen-minute Keltner target at 570.39.

Jeff Bailey : 8/5/2005 10:23:29 AM

10:10 Internals found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 8/5/2005 10:22:53 AM

Volume breadth holds negative, -2.22:1 on the NYSE and -1.27:1 on the Nasdaq. TNX is now up 7.9 bps and testing 4.0% resistance, crude oil down within positive territory at 61.85.

Linda Piazza : 8/5/2005 10:19:37 AM

RUT still testing that daily Keltner support. The 15-minute chart shows a lot of resistance gathering near 673.11-673.75, with other resistance lower and with the 30-minute chart showing resistance also higher, near 675 and 677.50-678.75. Bears would like to see that 673-ish point or lower hold as resistance, but most especially 675 or 677.50-678.75. At about 680, the RUT retests a former supporting trendline from about 7/18 until yesterday, when it was broken.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/5/2005 10:14:40 AM

QQQQ has held within its premarket range, no new lows as the short cycle downphase progresses back toward oversold territory. The double bottom confirms an upside 30 min channel turn if the price can get back above the 39.66 level and break the high at daily R1, also 30 min channel resistance at 39.80: Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/5/2005 10:14:37 AM

10:10 Market Watch found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 8/5/2005 10:12:34 AM

That OEX 571-ish historical support is so far preventing the OEX from tumbling the rest of the way down to its 570.53 Keltner target on the 15-minute chart.

Linda Piazza : 8/5/2005 10:11:38 AM

The SOX looks vulnerable to 464.16 daily Keltner support, but not necessarily today. This target remains until and unless the SOX produces daily closes above 475.12.

Linda Piazza : 8/5/2005 10:10:09 AM

RUT testing 666.06 daily Keltner support. Next support beneath that at 655.21, but these are support levels on daily closes. RUT at 666.17 as I type, still testing that first-mentioned support. If this should prompt a bounce, bears want to see a lower high, preferably a close beneath daily Keltner resistance from 676.39-678.46.

Jeff Bailey : 8/5/2005 10:09:49 AM

S&P Banks (BIX.X) 357.13 -0.89% ...

Jonathan Levinson : 8/5/2005 10:08:04 AM

Crude oil reopens +.75 at 62.125 here, 2.5 cents below the 62.15 high.

Jeff Bailey : 8/5/2005 10:08:00 AM

QQQQ $39.56 -0.27% ... session low and WEEKLY Pivot. Bulls want to see DAILY S1 be firm, build a "trap" and then take it back higher.

Linda Piazza : 8/5/2005 10:07:36 AM

RUT continuing to drop.

Linda Piazza : 8/5/2005 10:06:35 AM

SOX maintaining its new target 469.73. SOX bears want to see the SOX continue to produce 15-minute closes beneath 472.75-474.71. Failing that, they want closes beneath 476.76-477.75. Note: the SOX is approaching that next target (and possible bounce point) as I type.

Linda Piazza : 8/5/2005 10:02:45 AM

That OEX 571 level is one of potential historical support. The 30 and 50-sma's are at 569.52 and 568.96, respectively, too. I don't see great relevance to the OEX's trading pattern over the last couple of months and those MA's, but they are just under possible round-number and historical support, so might lend some strength to that support, at least over the very short-term. Bears just want to see the OEX continue to produce 15-minute closes beneath lines currently from 572.61-572.98, or, failing that, beneath 574-575.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/5/2005 10:02:33 AM

The repo drain wasn't well received by stocks or bonds, with QQQQ back to the cash session lows. Premarket low is at 39.54, below which is the 60 min channel bottom at 39.50 and the 30 at 39.45. Link

Linda Piazza : 8/5/2005 10:00:06 AM

So far, the OEX is maintaining its breakdown signal. Downside target 570.60. Bears need to know how they'll deal with that level, if tested. Those who might have taken partial profits yesterday have some breathing room now with the rest of the position and might just keep lowering stops to an account-appropriate level, not letting the gains seep away.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/5/2005 9:58:43 AM

Session low for ten year notes at 110 9/64, TNX up 6.8 bps at 4.387%.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/5/2005 9:57:00 AM

The Fed announces a 7.5B weekend repo, which results in a net drain of 2.75B against the 10.25B expiring today.

Linda Piazza : 8/5/2005 9:55:17 AM

SOX at 473.57, retesting 473.31-473.81 next Keltner resistance, on 15-minute closes. The SOX may be key to watch this morning. Bears want that resistance to hold on 15-minute closes, and for the SOX to roll back toward the new downside target of 469.86.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/5/2005 9:55:16 AM

The 30 min cycle is starting to turn up, and will maintain a bullish bias so long as price holds above 72 SMA support at the 39.66 breakout point. Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/5/2005 9:55:51 AM

Bearish put close out alert ... lets close out the two (2) iShare Russell 2000 Growth IWO Aug $65 Puts (IWO-TM) at the bid of $0.20. I think these are probably going to go "poof" unless something unforseen were to happen (terrorist attack, etc.).

IWO $68.36 -0.49%

Jeff Bailey : 8/5/2005 9:52:07 AM

QQQQ $39.75 , stop $39.40, target $40.10 on 1/2.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/5/2005 9:51:25 AM

Nasdaq volume breadth has flipped to +1.65:1 as QQQQ tests the premarket highs at 39.78.

Linda Piazza : 8/5/2005 9:51:09 AM

The OEX did create a new breakdown signal on the last 15-minute candle, but immediately rises to retest resistance.

Jeff Bailey : 8/5/2005 9:51:05 AM

Swing trade long alert full position for the QQQQ here.

Linda Piazza : 8/5/2005 9:49:49 AM

BIX dropping further today. It's now soundly below both its 200-ema and the 100-sma, and so vulnerable to 355-ish levels and even the bottom of its broadening formation (daily chart) at 351.45, but perhaps not until after a bounce back up to test former support from 359.33-360.90 to see if they hold as resistance now. It's at 358.15 as I type.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/5/2005 9:48:28 AM

Volume breadth is up to -2.3:1 on the NYSE and -1.19:1 on the Nasdaq, with QQQQ's short cycle indicators turning up as price rises below 39.66. A burst of volume on teh break will target resistance at the premarket highs at 39.78. Link

Linda Piazza : 8/5/2005 9:46:49 AM

RUT isn't bouncing today, but SOX is trying to, from that 470 level.

Linda Piazza : 8/5/2005 9:44:42 AM

The DJUSHB, the Dow Jones US Home Construction Index, is breaking below its 21-ema, testing the double-top confirmation level on its daily chart. Bears would like to see a further breakdown below 1050 and would like to see those below-1050 levels sustained. This action and that yesterday confirm the DJUSHB's breakdown out of its long-term ascending regression channel off late April/early May values. DJUSHB at 1053.00 as I type. Need that confirmation of the double-top formation, but the DJUSHB may be finally showing signs of weakening.

Linda Piazza : 8/5/2005 9:40:45 AM

We haven't had a 15-minute close yet, but the OEX is so far staying below the Keltner line currently at 572.88, preserving the possibility of a breakdown signal with a target of 570.68. Remember how iffy these signals have been on the OEX, though, but bears who held overnight should be feeling cheered. Don't feel too complacent, though, as the OEX is still just essentially testing this breakdown level's support. Keep your stops in mind.

Linda Piazza : 8/5/2005 9:39:05 AM

The SOX is attempting to bounce from that Keltner support I mentioned. Now bears want to see resistance on 15-minute closes from 473.35-474.95, and then to see the SOX turn lower again. If the SOX gets above that resistance, the bottom support will flatten a bit more and 477.23-477.96 will be a next level to retest.

Jane Fox : 8/5/2005 9:38:58 AM

VIX is above its daily lows, NYA is making new daily lows and ES is now following NYA to new daily lows.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/5/2005 9:35:49 AM

QQQQ is bouncing back to test 72 SMA resistance from below at 39.66: Link

Linda Piazza : 8/5/2005 9:34:29 AM

SOX dropping to bottom Keltner support on the 15-minute chart, with that support at 470.18, currently. Although there can of course be a new breakdown, this 470 level would already have been a natural place to assume that the SOX might try to regroup and bounce. Watch for that possibility.

Linda Piazza : 8/5/2005 9:31:58 AM

The OEX is threatening another Keltner channel breakdown first thing this morning. While these first-in-the-morning signals are not as reliable as some and so offer an iffy entry for new bears, this is action that those who held over want to see. They want a 15-minute close beneath the Keltner line currently at 572.94.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/5/2005 9:28:54 AM

Premarket volume breadth is -2.66:1 on the NYSE, -2.72:1 on the Nasdaq.

Linda Piazza : 8/5/2005 9:27:27 AM

Some of the Fed districts reporting have shown that the Dallas district has seen home prices depressed sooner than some others (lost a lot of jobs during the Internet bubble's breaking and airlines are a big industry), but still Texas has always just been a lot cheaper.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/5/2005 9:26:47 AM

That type of divergence is reminiscent of the dotcom bubble over- and under-valuations of different companies and stocks. Is it different this time, or will history rhyme?

Jane Fox : 8/5/2005 9:25:00 AM

Linda you convinced me - I'm moving. (9:20 post)

Jonathan Levinson : 8/5/2005 9:23:38 AM

Crude oil's sinking slightly, down to a .525 gain at 61.90 but still holding just off this week's highs.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/5/2005 9:20:57 AM

Ten year note yields have blown through the previous high, up 5.6 bps to 4.375% here. Link

Linda Piazza : 8/5/2005 9:25:33 AM

In reference to Jonathan's 9:13 post, everyone should just move to Texas. Here's what the same price will get you: Link

Jonathan Levinson : 8/5/2005 9:19:12 AM

Appears to be the real deal. A "fixer-upper," in the common parlance...

Jane Fox : 8/5/2005 9:17:34 AM

Jonathan is that a joke - it doesn't look like one.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/5/2005 9:13:29 AM

Off topic, but those standing in awe of the real estate market, here's more food for thought: Link

Jonathan Levinson : 8/5/2005 9:09:33 AM

The US Dollar Index has just engulfed yesterday's range and recovered Wednesday night's losses: Link Gold is down to a 10 cent gain, silver -.047 to 7.205, euro and CAD futures at session lows of 1.2345 and .8179.

Linda Piazza : 8/5/2005 8:42:07 AM

The market generals that make up the OEX just won't move off their chosen path, a Keltner channel that now ranges from 573.04 on the downside to 576.60 on the upside. Minimal downside violations yesterday failed to show the follow-through shown on other indices. To make matters worse, the OEX ended cents above that lower channel line, right on the former resistance of the descending trendline off the 7/14 high, right above the supporting trendline of the flag in which it's been trading for several weeks on the daily chart. Right on support, support, support, by all three measures. This is balanced against weakness in many other indices, markedly in the recently high-flying ones.

Other indices produced impressive reversal signals or declines: SOX, producing an evening star; RLX, falling through the broadening formation on the 60-minute chart and more than meeting the downside target; TRAN, falling through daily Keltner support; the Dow and SPX violating their flag's support and then retesting and falling slightly away by the close. However, the Nasdaq ended just above daily Keltner support and some other indices have dropped low enough that bounces might be due, not discounting the possibility of some follow-through to the downside this morning. The SOX, for example, approaches 470-472-ish potential support and might need to bounce up to test the 474.75-475 or 477-ish S/R zones to see if either holds as resistance now. The RLX dropped so precipitously that it could either finish dropping all the way toward the bottom of its long-term rising regression channel at about 460-462, or it could bounce rather soon to retest 478-480-ish resistance. We really have to see how markets react at the open to make those judgments, though.

If those bounces occur this morning, the OEX could move up through its Keltner channel again, although 574.70-575.11 resistance now looks fairly strong. Bears holding overnight want instead a breakdown below 573.04 on a 15-minute closing basis and a quick move down to 570.78. Those wanting a new bearish entry on the creation of a new breakdown signal saw a demonstration yesterday of how iffy that might be, but let's take a look at how things set up this morning. Although I'm expecting bounces to retest resistance at some point or another--perhaps today or perhaps next week--and although the OEX has not yet changed its habit of cycling from one border to another of that Keltner channel, I would not feel good about a long play up through the channel today with the possibility that markets have reached a swing high that might hold.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/5/2005 8:41:46 AM

QQQQ is down to 39.61 here, still within yesterday's range. Bears need a solid break of the 39.56 level to suggest a resumption of yesterday morning's drop.

Jane Fox : 8/5/2005 8:40:48 AM

Here is the WSJ take on the employment numbers and why the bonds are selling off U.S. employers accelerated the pace of job creation last month and dispensed the biggest wage increases in a year, indicating the labor market is strong enough to permit the Federal Reserve to extend its campaign of interest-rate increases.

Nonfarm payrolls grew by 207,000 last month -- the biggest increase in three months, the Labor Department said Friday. The department also said employers created 42,000 more non-farm jobs in May and June than it previously estimated. That raised the monthly average for the year to a robust 191,000.

The strong job growth came with increased inflationary pressures: Average hourly earnings rose six cents, or 0.4%, to $16.13. That was the biggest increase in a year, and it validated the view of Fed policy makers that "pressures on inflation have stayed elevated."

Still, the U.S. unemployment rate held steady at 5% as more workers entered the labor force in search of jobs. The civilian labor force increased by 450,000 in July, the Labor Department said. Of those, 438,000 found jobs.

The job growth and wage increases were stronger than Wall Street expected. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires and CNBC had predicted a 180,000 increase in payrolls, a 5% unemployment rate, and a 0.3% wage increase. The Labor Department said Hurricane Dennis, which struck parts of Florida, Alabama and Mississippi in July, had "no discernable...effects" on the numbers.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/5/2005 8:40:06 AM

Oct. gold continues to fight that 441 resistance area below the stronger line at 444. The daily cycle is overbought and a potential topping area, and gold bulls will need to see a strong closing break of 444 to suggest that that cycle is commencing a trending move.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/5/2005 8:33:51 AM

Crude oil holds a .625 gain at 62, 15 cents off its session high.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/5/2005 8:33:29 AM

Ten year note yields are up 2.9 bps to 4.348%, retesting that key 4.35% level.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/5/2005 8:32:58 AM

Prices are whipping around here, QQQQ currently flat at 39.68 after spiking to 39.78.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/5/2005 8:31:45 AM

Headlines:

U.S. JULY PAYROLLS UP 207,000 VS.183,000 EXPECTED

U.S. JULY JOBLESS RATE STEADY AT 5% AS EXPECTED

U.S. JULY AVERAGE HOURLY EARNINGS UP 0.4%

U.S. JULY AVERAGE WORKWEEK STEADY AT 33.7 HOURS

U.S. MAY, JUNE PAYROLLS REVISED HIGHER BY 42,000

U.S. JULY MANUFACTURING JOBS FALL 4,000

U.S. JULY LABOR PARTICIPATION RATE RISES TO 66.3%

U.S. JULY RETAIL JOBS UP 50,000, MOST IN 5 YEARS

Jonathan Levinson : 8/5/2005 8:30:28 AM

Nonfarm payrolls +207K vs. 180K exp.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/5/2005 8:27:55 AM

QQQQ is printing bad ticks to the 39.64-.68 area here ahead of the report, GOOG, gold and silver futures pulling off session highs. If there hasn't been an actual "sneak-peak" at the data, the trading 'bots are getting very jittery here.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/5/2005 8:23:45 AM

Ten year bonds are holding a light 1/16 gain ahead of the employment report, and the TNX is down .8 bps at 4.311%. Key support remains at 4.3%, resistance at 4.35%.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/5/2005 8:09:19 AM

QQQQ's gap up this morning has erased the decline from noon yesterday, currently testing the underside of yesterday's S1 at 39.73-.75 confluence. The low volume has yet to see the tick-driven indicators turn up, but above the 72 SMA at 39.66, the intraday bias is to the upside.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/5/2005 7:47:10 AM

Equities are up, ES trading 1240.25, NQ 1619, YM 10631 and QQQQ +.08 to 39.75. Gold is up 20 cents to 440.70, ten year notes are up 3/64 to 110 23/32, and crude oil is up .675 to 62.05.

We await the 8:30 release of nonfarm payrolls, est. 180K, the unemployment rate, est. 5%, hourly earnings, est. .2%, the average workweek, est. 33.7, and at 3PM, consumer credit, est. 6B.

Linda Piazza : 8/5/2005 6:46:11 AM

Good morning. The Nikkei fell almost 1% last night, with most other Asian markets dropping, too. European markets are mixed, although most started out in negative territory. Our futures are modestly positive. As of 6:41 EST, gold was down $0.30, and crude, up $0.48 to $61.86. More detail about Asian and European markets follows in succeeding paragraphs.

The Nikkei gapped lower and coiled in negative territory Friday morning as market watchers weighed the possible effects of political upheaval against markets that have perhaps become extended. It broke to the downside as the afternoon session opened and closed lower by 116.83 points or 0.98%, at 11,766.48. The vote for postal privatization has been postponed until Monday, although Prime Minister Koizumi had pushed for a vote to be held Friday. Koizumi threatens to resign and dissolve the lower house if the bill is not approved, and Koizumi has been credited with bringing Japan out of contraction into an expansion. Toyota was an early leader to the downside.

Most other Asian markets fell, too. The Taiwan Weighted was closed due to a typhoon. South Korea's Samsung spent a second day declining. The Kospi dropped 1.98%. Singapore's Straits Times fell 1.00%, and Hong Kong's Hang Seng lost 0.40%. In contrast to those others, China's Shanghai Composite rose 2.37%.

European markets are mixed now, although most started out in negative territory due to rising crude-oil costs. European markets are also cautious ahead of our non-farm payrolls number. However, well-received earnings from British Airways and easyJet worked against the normal tendency for airlines to fall when crude prices rise, and airlines tended to gain. Automakers did decline, however, as they often do amid a rising crude environment, with a WSJ report of a Justice Department probe of possible bribes paid in many countries also hitting DaimlerChrysler. Chemical companies also tended to decline. Adidas-Salomon received a downgrade from Morgan Stanley and was slipping in early trading. Reporting companies saw mixed reactions, with chemical firm Rhodia falling heavily after its Pharma Solutions division failed to improve as hoped, Michelin rising with the company seeing 2005's operating margin as better than last year's, and U.K. bank Barclay's rising after surprising to the upside.

As of 6:42 EST, the FTSE 100 was higher by 18.20 points or 0.34%, at 5,333.70. The CAC 40 was lower by 0.68 points or 0.02%, at 4,458.29. The DAX was lower by 11.14 points or 0.23%, at 4,862.92.

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