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Marc Eckelberry : 8/9/2005 1:42:53 AM

We have gaps from 7/13 to close in the coming days or weeks: QQQQ 38.40 and NDX 1557.62. Not coincidentally around the 50 dma, usually a target once the 20 dma is breached on close. Set your alarms and daytrade longs only until that is done. Again, I recommend shorting rallies now, not buying dips, especially with that sitting below.

OI Technical Staff : 8/8/2005 9:59:59 PM

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Marc Eckelberry : 8/8/2005 8:54:47 PM

Jeff, here are the 2 charts that apparently were not accessible the other day. YM and TNX clearly showing how things changed on 7/21 when the ten year did a big jump above the 200 dma. Here is YM: Link and TNX: Link YM hit 10760 that morning and sold off. The relationship is clear, at least for the DOW futures, although one could argue that ES hit 1246, close enough as well.

Jeff Bailey : 8/8/2005 6:23:52 PM

Pivot Matrix for Tuesday at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/8/2005 6:13:26 PM

Closing U.S. Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/8/2005 5:13:48 PM

Host America (CAFE) alert $14.25 ... Murray, Frank & Sailer LLP has filed a shareholder class action lawsuit in the U.S. District Court for the District of Connecticut on behalf of shareholders who purchased or otherwise acquired the securities of Host America Corporation between July 12, 2005 and July 22, 2005. Story at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/8/2005 5:02:37 PM

I'm working on trying to get some of the old archives from OptionInvestor.com restored before I head out on vacation. I've also developed a "do it yourself" Pivot Level calculator, and once I'm able to retrieve some old articles on how traders can use these pivot levels, and post them, we should have that up and running.

Jeff Bailey : 8/8/2005 4:58:55 PM

Closing Internals found at this Link ... NYSE NH/NL Ratio Chart at this Link ... NASDAQ NH/NL Ratio Chart at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/8/2005 4:12:51 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles found at this Link ... Today's Activity ... Bullish swing trade stopped on the QQQQ at $39.40 ($-0.35, or -0.88%).

Bullish swing trade close out the Union Pacific UNP Nov $70 Calls (UNP-KN) at the bid of $2.80 ($+1.15, or +69.70%).

Jeff Bailey : 8/8/2005 4:06:37 PM

Buy Program Premium ... DIA $105.45, SPY $122.55

Linda Piazza : 8/8/2005 4:02:28 PM

My link wasn't working correctly on my (previously 3:58 but now 4:00)post, so I deleted it, but the OEX dropped right down onto two-hour Keltner support that often holds as support or resistance. The OEX often chops around just above, below, or at that particular Keltner line, currently at 568.62.

Jeff Bailey : 8/8/2005 3:59:19 PM

Baidu.com (BIDU) $116.00 -5% ... weak to the close.

Linda Piazza : 8/8/2005 4:00:28 PM

Making a decision about holding a bearish position overnight on the OEX? I don't know that the OEX's daily Keltner chart is going to help you any, as it suggests that the OEX could consolidate now into the FOMC meeting, but verges on a stronger drop, into 564, too. I said this morning that I wasn't sure whether the OEX would be more likely to chop from 569-574 or from 565-569. Maybe one zone one day and another, the next? I'm not sure except the possibility of more chop exists, making trading decisions difficult. I certainly wouldn't let a short-term winning position turn into a losing one.

Linda Piazza : 8/8/2005 3:49:36 PM

The BIX has dropped further today, with the LOD at 354.19, but it hasn't hit the 351.30-ish level that marks the bottom support of its broadening formation on its daily chart. It's at 354.86 as I type.

Linda Piazza : 8/8/2005 3:46:41 PM

RUT and TRAN, two indices testing what could be necklines for still-right-shoulder-lacking H&S formations, try to steady at their neckline areas.

Linda Piazza : 8/8/2005 3:45:22 PM

The OEX is trying to hold above descending Keltner support at 568.77 on 15-minute closes, but it's still getting trapped at the Keltner line currently at 569.18 when it tries to rise, at least by the 15-minute closes.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/8/2005 3:43:34 PM

QQQQ didnt' spend long above the 72 SMA before sinking back below it, challenging the lows now. The short cycle indicators are rolling over, the 30 min uptick stalled again. Link

Linda Piazza : 8/8/2005 3:36:59 PM

The TRAN's 240-minute chart looks remarkably like the RUT's daily chart from my 3:28 post. Rising regression channel, trade out of that channel and steep drop, current approach to mid-July's support level, a possible neckline for a H&S formation that's still lacking a right shoulder. The TRAN doesn't always do the right-shoulder thing, but this shows the possibility of a several day rise which bears hope is into a lower high and bulls into a higher high. The FOMC meeting and rising crude costs could skew the whole thing, but it's a possibility that bears need to keep on their radar screens.

Linda Piazza : 8/8/2005 3:32:35 PM

So far, the OEX is still getting stopped on 15-minute closes by a Keltner line currently at 569.30, with the OEX coming up to retest that line now.

Linda Piazza : 8/8/2005 3:28:58 PM

Here's one possibility for the RUT, suggesting a possible bounce soon, and suggesting that things are even worse than they seem if there's a further decline that takes the RUT much lower before a bounce: Link

Jonathan Levinson : 8/8/2005 3:25:51 PM
















Jonathan Levinson : 8/8/2005 3:18:46 PM

QQQQ is holding its bounce, Nasdaq volume breadth recovering to -1.29:1 as price breaks the 72 SMA. The short cycle upphase is holding as the 30 min cycle ticks up from flat. Bulls need to see a break of 39.35 to confirm a new 30 min cycle upphase- because it's been trending lower in oversold since Friday, it's riskier than usual to anticipate these signals. Updated 100 tick chart at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/8/2005 3:13:28 PM

03:00 Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/8/2005 3:02:47 PM

03:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 8/8/2005 3:01:03 PM

The OEX is rising to test Keltner reistance at 569.41, trying to erase that newest breakdown signal. Further Keltner resistance now at 570.06 and 570.76, all on 15-minute closes. Support is trying again to firm, but nearest resistance is holding so far, too.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/8/2005 2:59:36 PM

Session low for ZN futures here at 109 61/64, TNX +2.5 bps at 4.417% in the final minute of the cash session.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/8/2005 2:58:41 PM

QQQQ breaks the previous high, testing 39.25 here: Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/8/2005 2:51:58 PM

Sirius Satellite Radio (SIRI) $6.67 -1.33% ... DJ - Redeeming 14.5% notes for 104.83% of prinicpal. Redeeming 15% notes for 107.5% of principal.

Linda Piazza : 8/8/2005 2:50:02 PM

The SOX has slipped beneath what I think should be the neckline for the H&S visible but maybe not quite completed on its 60-minute chart. The SOX isn't exactly falling away precipitously after dropping beneath 468, though, is it? That coudl be a warning to bears to be careful. It looks to me as if symmetry suggests that the SOX ought to do a bit more shoulder building here, so perhaps I'm just extra wary. The daily chart shows a vulnerability to 462.62 until and unless the SOX produces daily closes above a line currently at 473.63.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/8/2005 2:47:11 PM

The linear regression lines are tracking the decline perfectly today- QQQQ just failed again at the midpoint, below previous broken support at 39.25. The 30 min channel bottom is down to 39.10: Link

Linda Piazza : 8/8/2005 2:40:45 PM

New breakdown signal on the OEX with a downside target of 568.19, but the OEX is essentially following the descending Keltner support lower, as it might continue to do until it can produce 15-minute closes above a Keltner line currently at 569.50, although 570.28-570.91 is also important resistance.

Jeff Bailey : 8/8/2005 2:35:17 PM

Cisco Systems (CSCO) $19.28 -0.10% ... probes morning lows.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/8/2005 2:31:58 PM

Crude oil tagged a new high at 63.975 and has closed +1.60 at 63.90.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/8/2005 2:27:01 PM

Crude oil is back up to within 15 cents of the high, +1.50 at 63.80 with 4 minutes left in the regular session.

Linda Piazza : 8/8/2005 2:21:13 PM

Benchmarking impressions: the advdec line has been tapping away at Keltner support, and now the last bit threatens to give way and send the advdec line down toward -2424. That's not definite, of course, but as I type, down (in the advdec line) looks easier than too much upward movement. Where's a good buy program when the bulls need one? Don't trade on this information.

Jeff Bailey : 8/8/2005 2:22:41 PM

Air T, Inc (AIRT) $11.38 -17.5% Link ... sharp decline after the small-aircraft air cargo operator said Q1 earnings came in at $278,000, or $0.10 a share, a decline of 48% from $533,000, or $0.20 a share in the year ago quarter. The company blamed the earnings dropoff on a $373,000 cost relating to equipment problems. Revenue at Air T rose to $17.2 million from $15.1 million in the year-ago quarter.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/8/2005 2:19:42 PM

The SOX is trading below Friday's 468 low, but not by much.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/8/2005 2:14:28 PM

Volume breadth is down to -1.34:1 on the NYSE and -1.3:1 on the Nasdaq, not at all dramatic, and overall volume is light as well.

Linda Piazza : 8/8/2005 2:14:03 PM

Now it's the RUT's turn to test the neckline of its potential H&S at the top of its climb, but the RUT hasn't formed a right shoulder yet. That right shoulder could be the lower high that traders want to see and also the kiss-goodbye test of the RUT's former rising regression channel. The neckline may be at about 658-660, with the RUT now at 660.02, so watch for a potential bounce. A decline below 658 might get a steeper fall started, but watch for that little fake-out move and then zoom higher into the right shoulder.

Jeff Bailey : 8/8/2005 2:10:43 PM

02:00 Internals found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 8/8/2005 2:08:26 PM

QQQQ has broken the most recent flag, with 30 min channel support descending to 39.17: Link

Linda Piazza : 8/8/2005 2:07:58 PM

OEX still sliding down along that Keltner support, still finding resistance at 15-minute closes at the Keltner line currently at 569.95, with next resistance at 570.73-571.12.

Linda Piazza : 8/8/2005 2:06:44 PM

The RLX has dropped all the way down to test the bottom of its rising regression channel on its daily chart, simultaneously testing the November high of 465.07 and the January high of 466.68 and January closing high of 464.62, and the 30-sma at 466.04. The RLX is at 465.60 as I type. To have the fast-moving and market-leading RLX tumble out of its rising regression channel would be another development that market bulls would not like to see. So far, the RLX is just testing that support, at about today's low, but bulls want to see a bounce soon.

Jeff Bailey : 8/8/2005 2:02:13 PM

02:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 8/8/2005 2:01:14 PM

Sept. crude oil +1.225 at 63.525, off a high of 63.95.

Linda Piazza : 8/8/2005 2:00:09 PM

The SOX is now at the supposed neckline area for the H&S that I mentioned Friday that it might form. The trouble is that the right shoulder is stunted, time wise and height wise, in comparison to the left shoulder, so that I'm not sure the shoulder-building exercised is finished. In addition, the SOX tests massed Keltner support on the 60-minute chart, from 467.51-469.12. A 60-minute close beneath that massed support, so beneath the line currently at 467.51, would suggest that the H&S was being confirmed. The SOX is at 468.70 as I type. On the daily chart, it remains vulnerable to 463.44.

Linda Piazza : 8/8/2005 1:50:55 PM

The OEX is rising to test the former support of its consolidation pattern since mid-morning Friday, and also the 15-minute Keltner resistance at 570.12. The OEX is at 570.01 as I type.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/8/2005 1:50:42 PM

The current QQQQ bounce is weaker than that at 11AM, but S2 and 30 min channel support at 39.20 have not yet been tested. There are potentially steep bullish divergences in the 30 and 60 min cycle indicators, but until those downphases reverse decisively, the divergences are only potential. Bulls need a break above the 39.45 level to turn the 30 min channel up, while a move above 39.35 would be enough to confirm a new short cycle upphase. Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/8/2005 1:49:24 PM

U.S. Energy Bill ... DJ - President Bush signs a sweeping $12.3 billion energy bill into law, saying the legislation will help reduce U.S. reliance on foreign oil.

"This bill will strengthen our economy and it will improve our environment," Bush said Monday in remarks at the bill-signing ceremony in Albuquerque, N.M. "This bill launches an energy strategy for the 21st century."

The massive Energy Policy Act of 2005, approved late last month after years of effort, aims to boost domestic energy production, beef up electricity rules to prevent blackouts, and encourage companies to invest in clean coal technologies, among other things.

Linda Piazza : 8/8/2005 1:41:31 PM

The TRAN is doing a good job of completing the head for a potential H&S on its daily chart, with RSI having already confirmed a H&S of its own. The TRAN lacks a right shoulder, but sometimes it does away with the right-shoulder building exercise. This potential H&S is forming at the top of a climb off the June low, and as the TRAN faced weekly resistance from the December and March swing highs, so it's significant to watch. A move above last week's 3821.83 high would invalidate the formation. The neckline appears to be at about 3727, with the TRAN currently at 3733.84, but be wary of a potential quick move below what should be the neckline and then a reversal up into the right-shoulder level.

Linda Piazza : 8/8/2005 1:37:01 PM

The SOX has not yet dropped below Friday's low.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/8/2005 1:35:32 PM

Volume breadth still very close to neutral, -1.17:1 on the NYSE, -1.09:1 on the Nasdaq.

Linda Piazza : 8/8/2005 1:24:42 PM

Whether the OEX's formation was a continuation-form H&S or a "b" distribution pattern, the OEX has broken below that consolidation. It's now balancing tentatively on Keltner support at 569.44 on 15-minute closes, but failing a 15-minute close above the line currently at 570.25, it may be vulnerable to just sliding down that descending support level.

Linda Piazza : 8/8/2005 1:22:16 PM

Benchmarking impressions: the advdec line finally turned down from beneath the Keltner resistance that it had spent most of the day testing. It's now testing potential support from -1473 to -1039. That support does not look particularly strong, but perhaps as strong as the resistance that's been holding back further rises in the advdec line. Without a strong thrust one way or the other, it's possible that the advdec line will move sideways at this new, lower level, rattling between support and resistance. Do not trade on this information.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/8/2005 1:17:32 PM

The Treasury auction of 3-year notes generated a high yield of 4.204%, bid to cover 2.31. Foreign central banks took a more respectable 5B of the 18B total.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/8/2005 1:16:09 PM

On the 13- and 26-week auctions, foreign central banks took 7.4B of the 34B total, below the usual 25% benchmark.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/8/2005 1:14:54 PM

QQQQ has broken the lows and is down to 39.28, with 30 min channel support approaching S2 at 39.20. We remember this level on the way up, and it should provide support here. The bias remains to the downside, with resistance now at 39.33-.35, followed by 39.42-.45. Link

Jonathan Levinson : 8/8/2005 1:13:19 PM

The Treasury auctioned 18B in 13-week bills, 16B in 26-week bills. The bid to cover on the 13 week bills was 2.09, the high-rate 3.46%, a new high for the year. The 6-month bills set a bid to cover of 2.07, a high-rate of 3.68%. I will complete the picture in a few moments after I update the QQQQ chart in light of the new lows printing here.

Linda Piazza : 8/8/2005 1:11:49 PM

Seen on 60-minute charts, some of these consolidation patterns look like possible "b" distribution patterns. The OEX's could be, and so could the RUT's and SOX's. The SOX's is forming along the 60-minute 100/130-ema's, at 471.15 and 468.15, respectively. As the indices have been consolidating, RSI has been moving off Friday's low, which would be a bearish thing if should complete its move higher and then roll down again while prices consolidated the whole time. For now, though, there's consolidation and consolidation that could possibly break either direction. It looks as if there's about to be an attempt at a downside breakdown, with the OEX now below Friday's low, but bears don't want to see a quick reversal now.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/8/2005 1:09:56 PM

Back to find the markets virtually unchanged, QQQQ down 12 cents at 39.36, session lows breaking on ES and YM here, being tested on QQQQ as I type: Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/8/2005 1:08:29 PM

01:00 Internals found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 8/8/2005 1:04:31 PM

The OEX is still in that consolidation pattern, be it continuation-form H&S or something else. The RSI is producing a H&S formation, too, neither confirmed yet.

Jeff Bailey : 8/8/2005 1:01:49 PM

01:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/8/2005 12:51:12 PM

10 Most Active ... NT $2.96 +12.07%, JDSU $1.57 +5.36%, MSFT $27.27 -1.76%, QQQQ $39.39 -0.22%, SPY $122.90 +0.01%, LU $2.90 +1.76%, BCON $3.12 +33.9%, CSCO $19.47 +0.88% (earnings Tuesday after the close), SIRI $6.69 -1.18%, ORCL $13.30 +0.15%

Linda Piazza : 8/8/2005 12:46:51 PM

That consolidation formation on the OEX's 15-minute chart is looking more and more like a continuation-form H&S, but its support hasn't broken. Neither has it been invalidated by a move above the HOD.

Linda Piazza : 8/8/2005 12:34:04 PM

OEX still going mostly sideways, just above the 569.98 levels that mark both Friday's and today's LOD's. OEX at 570.31 as I type. A break to a new LOD, unless quickly reversed, could see the OEX then sliding along descending Keltner support.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/8/2005 12:32:27 PM

Stepping away for 15 minutes here.

Jeff Bailey : 8/8/2005 12:28:19 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 8/8/2005 12:26:29 PM

The Wilshire 5000 rose up to test its 21-ema at 12,311.25 today, but then fell back and now hovers near Friday's low. The DWC looks vulnerable to the 12,195-12,205 level if it drops beneath Friday's 12,246.25 low and doesn't quickly snap higher. It's at 12,258.29 as I type.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/8/2005 12:22:06 PM

QQQQ is printing above the 72 SMA here for the first time since 10:30AM, breaking the previous high from a higher low at 39.35. The short cycle upphase is still stalled, but not dead: Link

Linda Piazza : 8/8/2005 12:18:40 PM

The OEX is trading sideways, perhaps coiling into a tighter range. I don't want to microanalyze this as the OEX could still be reforming into a broader bear flag, forming that continuation-form H&S or just consolidating before a greater rise. It's not bullish not to be able to mount a stronger bounce, but the OEX hasn't broken out of its sideways consolidation.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/8/2005 12:14:56 PM




Jonathan Levinson : 8/8/2005 12:10:38 PM

Session high for Sept. crude, +1.65 at 63.95.

Jeff Bailey : 8/8/2005 12:13:25 PM

12:00 Internals found at this Link ... Note: current NASDAQ 5-day NH/NL ratio would be enough to see a 3-box reversal lower to 86%. We would wait until today's close for a final reading before charting.

It would currently take an 86.00% reading for the NYSE 5-day NH/NL ratio to reverse lower by 3 boxes.

Linda Piazza : 8/8/2005 12:09:02 PM

I expected the SOX to consolidate and maybe even do it for a number of days, but I expected that consolidation a little higher, at either 474-476 or 477-478. SOX at 471.16 as I type, unable as yet to rise further into a higher right shoulder for a possible H&S on its 60-minute chart.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/8/2005 12:08:19 PM

Energy is leading the Reuters CRB index higher, +2.91 today at 219.58 on strength in heating oil, crude oil, and natural gas. The agriculturals come next, with wheat, corn, soybeans and sugar in the lead.

Linda Piazza : 8/8/2005 12:04:35 PM

Benchmaking impressions: The advdec line steadies, but has difficulty moving above resistance at -480 on 15-minute closes, with the advdec line now at -559. It looks vulnerable to a drop to -1124 to -1257, but perhaps just will chop around a little while longer as it breaks down either support or resistance. If it produces 15-minute closes above that nearest resistance, indices could climb again. Don't trade on this information.

Jeff Bailey : 8/8/2005 12:02:19 PM

12:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 8/8/2005 11:56:04 AM

The RUT still tests a double-bottom area from Friday, but it's not rising convincingly off that double-bottom area.

Linda Piazza : 8/8/2005 11:53:31 AM

SOX trading sideways since about 1:00 Friday.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/8/2005 11:52:33 AM

The current drop is bouncing from 39.35, a higher low at S1 support. If the bulls can break 39.40-.45, the higher high and higher low intraday will give the faltering short cycle upphase a new lease on life and start turning the longer intraday channels up. A break below 39.35 will signal another test of the lows and would target current 30 min channel support at 39.25. Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/8/2005 11:42:21 AM

10-year YIELD ($TNX.X) chart with updated WEEKLY/MONTHLY Pivot matrix levels at this Link ...

Jonathan Levinson : 8/8/2005 11:42:10 AM

Crude oil is up 1.45 at 63.75, 15 cents off the high. Ten year notes are down to a 1/32 gain at 110 9/64, TNX up .2 bps at 4.394%.

Linda Piazza : 8/8/2005 11:38:40 AM

So far, the OEX has difficulty with the first Keltner resistance at 570.85 on a 15-minute close, with next resistance above that at 571.78. The OEX may be forming a continuation-form H&S on the 15-minute chart, at the bottom of the decline. While these formations often aren't as reliable as a topping H&S would be, it's still valuable to watch, particularly in the context of the recent bearishness in the marekts. A rise much past that 571.78 next Keltner resistance would invalidate it.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/8/2005 11:28:32 AM

Note that the SOX hasn't come close to breaking Friday's low- a bullish divergence against today's lower QQQQ low. But QQQQ bulls need to retake Friday's range at the very least on this short cycle upphase.

Linda Piazza : 8/8/2005 11:27:41 AM

Just a lot of choppy action as the OEX decides on direction, but I thought we'd likely get choppy action for a time on the OEX. Hope it's not too long a time. As I type, the OEX is challenging next Keltner resistance at 570.86 on 15-minute closes. A failure to close above that resistance might mean that the OEX remains vulnerable to sliding lower along Keltner support but a pronounced close above it might mean that the OEX is likely to rise up to retest 571.78 Keltner resistance.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/8/2005 11:27:00 AM

QQQQ tests 72 SMA resistance at 39.45: Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/8/2005 11:22:22 AM

Delphi (DPH) $4.28 -13.70% Link ... Automotive parts supplier sharply lower after reporing a quarterly loss of $338 million, or $-0.60 a share, compared with net income of $143 million or $+0.25 a share in the year-ago quarter. Excluding a $49 million restructuring charge, Delphi reported a loss of $-0.52 a share, which was a penny below consensus. Revenue in the latest quarter fell to $7 billion from $7.5 billion. The company said an 18% decline in sales to General Motors (GM) offset growth of 6% in other revenue to about $3.6 million.

The company said it is still in talks with GM and the United Auto Workers union about cutting high U.S. wage and benefit costs to try to avoid bankruptcy.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/8/2005 11:23:28 AM

Marc, the diversification away from US assets is a huge risk to all markets. China tried to switch from US treasuries to US resoruces (via Unocal), and the political opposition was huge. Will they seek to diversify into other currencies? Will they be able to find as huge a market as the US for their production and labor? These are huge questions- well beyond my abilities. But stories such as that out of Saudi are scary- China and India are potentially huge, but still very young markets for Saudi oil.

The timing is also unsettling, coming as it did on day 1 of a 2-day closure of US embassies in Saudi Arabia. I believe that it's because of the terror threat to US buildings, but still, an unpleasant combination announced this weekend and this morning.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/8/2005 11:19:01 AM

QQQQ's short cycle indicators have rolled up into an upphase while the wavelet indicator bumps its head on the ceiling (1st and 2nd oscillator panes respective at this Link ). Price has yet to break 39.40-.42, with the 72 SMA down to 39.45. Volume breadth is +1.1:1 on the Nasdaq, +1.06:1 on the NYSE, but it's a very light day overall.

Linda Piazza : 8/8/2005 11:11:29 AM

The RLX also dropped below Friday's low this mroning, breaking down from its possible bear flag. It's trying to bounce immediately, however.

Linda Piazza : 8/8/2005 11:10:37 AM

Benchmarking impressions: The advdec line is trying to steady, although only after a 15-minute close beneath support, converting that -563-ish zone into possible resistance. Without a strong push higher, this looks vulnerable to further downturns. Don't trade on this information.

Jeff Bailey : 8/8/2005 11:09:35 AM

11:00 Internals found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 8/8/2005 11:06:39 AM

Session high for ten year notes at 110 13/64, session low for GE at 33.73, -.08.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/8/2005 11:06:02 AM

QQQQ's bouncing from a 39.31 low, up to 39.38 here and coming in for a test of confluence from below, off the most oversold short cycle readings since last Thursday. 39.40-.42 is the first goal for bulls. Volume breadth is back to +1.1:1 on the Nasdaq: Link

Linda Piazza : 8/8/2005 11:02:07 AM

BIX easing below 355. See my 11:00 post. That's a new time stamp, as it was original 10:42, I believe, but I edited the post and the time stamp changed. BIX at 354.76 as I type, and now vulnerable to the bottom of its broadening formation unless it bounces quickly.

Jeff Bailey : 8/8/2005 11:02:04 AM

11:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 8/8/2005 10:59:11 AM

The OEX has broken below its bear flag support, but is attempting to bounce on Keltner support. If it can't get back above 571 and maintain 15-minute closes above 571.06, it may be vulnerable to sliding lower along descending Keltner lines. If it does steady and produce 15-minute closes above that line, there's the possibility that it was just reforming its flag into a wider flag. The advdec's line's action suggests that the slide lower could be possible, but the OEX has not yet moved lower than Friday's low, confirming its bear flag's breakdown.

Linda Piazza : 8/8/2005 10:59:41 AM

Benchmarking impressions: the advdec line has now dropped to that -715 Keltner potential support area that I mentioned earlier. if this fails, next support is at -1312 to -1926. A possible attempt to steady might occur near here, with a resultant attempt to steady on equities, although it's not showing up yet on the advdec line. Don't trade on this information.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/8/2005 10:55:18 AM

Volume breadth finally goes negative for the Nasdq, -1.02:1 here, NYSE still +1.05:1.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/8/2005 10:53:50 AM

30 min channel support declines to 39.32 as QQQQ breaks through S1. 1st sign of troble for bears will be a break back above prior confluence support at 39.40-.42: Link

Jonathan Levinson : 8/8/2005 10:49:48 AM

Volume breadth is at its weakest levels of the day but still positive, +1.16:1 on the NYSE and +1.15:1 on the Nasdaq.

Linda Piazza : 8/8/2005 10:47:23 AM

OEX testing the bear flag's support. Keltner support is lower, at 569.95 and then 568.89 on 15-minute closes. OEX at 570.55 as I type.

Jeff Bailey : 8/8/2005 10:46:54 AM

Bullish swing trade exit alert ... let's exit the remaining Union Pacific UNP Nov. $70 Call (UNP-KN) at the bid of $2.80 here.

UNP $69.77 +0.07% ...

Jonathan Levinson : 8/8/2005 10:46:49 AM

Session high for ten year notes at 110 3/16, TNX down .1 bps at 4.391%.

Linda Piazza : 8/8/2005 11:00:32 AM

BIX dropping back to retest the 7/07 and Friday's lows. If it drops below 355, it might be vulnerable to another test of the bottom of its broadening formation on its daily chart, with the bottom at about 351.20 currently. The BIX is at 355.35 as I type.

Jeff Bailey : 8/8/2005 10:44:54 AM

Bullish swing trade stop alert ... for the QQQQ $39.40 -0.18% here.

Linda Piazza : 8/8/2005 10:43:26 AM

So far, OEX holding above the bear flag's support, but Keltner support is sinking.

Linda Piazza : 8/8/2005 10:42:01 AM

Benchmarking impressions: I noted earlier this morning that the 15-minute Keltner chart suggested that the advdec line was at extreme levels, and that it might be likely to either move sideways (to burn off overbought status) or that a pop-and-drop day might be setting up. Now the advdec line turns lower through its Keltner channel but possibly has support at the -578 to -716 zone, so might attempt to steady there with equities possibly attempting to steady at the same time. Don't trade on this information, as I'm just benchmarking impressions so that if I come up with some theory related to this, you've been watching it develop all along.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/8/2005 10:41:31 AM

QQQQ 30 and 60 min channel support have declined to 39.35, where they overlap S1 support. Bulls need to see price above 39.50, current 72 SMA, to stall these trending oversold intraday downphases: Link

Linda Piazza : 8/8/2005 10:39:20 AM

OEX turning lower within its possible bear flag. Bear flag support at about 570.40, with a break of that support needing to be confirmed by a break of Friday's 569.98 low. Careful with the OEX, though, bears, as it has this tendence to chop around for a while after a move.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/8/2005 10:36:25 AM

Sept. crude just printed a session high at 63.725, while ten year notes are back to flat, TNX up .7 bps at 4.399%.

Linda Piazza : 8/8/2005 10:32:09 AM

OEX still zigging and zagging inside a possible bear flag, retracing some of the recent losses. Daily Keltner resistance at 573.47, so bears want a daily close below that, but the OEX is trapped between daily Keltner support and daily Keltner resistance and may need to consolidate for a number of hours or even days.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/8/2005 10:32:00 AM

This move in crude oil looks like a rising triangle break on the daily chart: Link

Linda Piazza : 8/8/2005 10:30:32 AM

The SOX is trying to steady at that neckline again, but it's having difficulty maintaining 15-minute closes above the Keltner line currently at 472.78. SOX currently at 472.45.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/8/2005 10:30:26 AM

Session high for Sept. crude at 63.55, +1.25.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/8/2005 10:27:24 AM

Other than this morning's new lows, this is the same action and the same range for the QQQQ as that which has held from noon on Friday: Link . Overall volume is light at 15.25M QQQQ shares traded so far, but the breadth is positive and has been so all morning.

Jeff Bailey : 8/8/2005 10:23:29 AM

Current OPEN MM Profiles found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 8/8/2005 10:19:47 AM

Volume breadth stil positive, +1.77:1 on the NYSE, +1.42:1 on the Nasdaq.

Tab Gilles : 8/8/2005 10:17:10 AM

Nasdaq Summation Index ($NASI) After last Friday's close the Weekly $NASI chart gave a SELL signal. I've been using leveraged sector funds (Profund UOPIX & USPIX) on long and short positions. With the sell signal I'm selling the UOPIX fund on today's closing NAV and entering the UPIX fund which shorts the $NDX 200%. However, it is possible that the signal can again reverse as it did last month and go long, will have to see. With the $NDX chart indicating a correction , the $NSI sell signal. a low $VXN - I feel comfortable in shorting the $NDX. As a matter of fact I posted on 7/29 12:34PM that it was prudent to take some money off the table.

Past posts 6/30 11:30 AM; 7/1 11:35AM; 7/5 6:14 PM; 7/8 3:00PM; 7/19 12:36PM; 7/29 12:34PM

CHARTS: $NDX Link Link


$NYSI Link


Linda Piazza : 8/8/2005 10:16:37 AM

The SOX hasn't been able to hold above the neckline of that inverse H&S.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/8/2005 10:15:14 AM




INTC +.14 here at 26.91.

Linda Piazza : 8/8/2005 10:14:45 AM

OEX may still be forming that bear flag.

Jeff Bailey : 8/8/2005 10:14:28 AM

Friday's Internals found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 8/8/2005 10:14:10 AM

SOX's 15-minute candles still aren't looking strong. Retesting that neckline now.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/8/2005 10:13:52 AM

Crude oil reopens and blows through the overnight high, +1.025 at a new record high of 63.325.

Jeff Bailey : 8/8/2005 10:10:33 AM

10:00 Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/8/2005 10:08:49 AM

Baidu.com (BIDU) alert $153 +24% ... new all-time high!

Linda Piazza : 8/8/2005 10:08:28 AM

The SOX has an inverse H&S on its 15-minute chart, head at Friday morning low, descending neckline at about 472, so the SOX has confirmed that inverse H&S at the bottom of a drop. Upside target, if met, would be 577.60, so would constitute a test of the appropriate right-shoulder area on the SOX's 60-minute chart. The SOX's rise is not strong this morning, however, with upper shadows, so I'm not certain if the upside target will be met. The 15-minute Keltner channel suggests that it might be stopped closer to 474.30-476.28.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/8/2005 10:04:08 AM

Volume breadth never went negative and is now up to +2.72:1 on the NYSE and +2.17:1 on the Nasdaq. QQQQ is sitting persitently at its premarket highs. Above Friday's last-hour 39.60 high, the 1:20PM high at 39.64 will be in play, followed by Friday's pivot at 39.67.

Linda Piazza : 8/8/2005 10:02:41 AM

Minimal OEX 15-minute close above Keltner resistance, setting up a next target at the 573.53-573.91 next resistance, but that was a minimal close above that line only. Still, I came into today thinking that 573-574 level might be tested, so I'd give it fair odds of being tested.

Jeff Bailey : 8/8/2005 10:02:21 AM

10:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 8/8/2005 9:59:46 AM

The Fed has announced a 7B overnight repo to replace the 7.5B expiring for a net drain of 500M.

Linda Piazza : 8/8/2005 9:58:59 AM

The RLX is trying to bounce ahead of a test of its rising regression channel's support, with that channel in place since late April, and that support at about 462.90. The RLX is at 468.13 as I type. Bear swould like to see it tip over again before the midline of its rising regression channel, at about 480.

Linda Piazza : 8/8/2005 9:57:27 AM

Having hit the 7/07 low on Friday, the BIX is now trying to bounce from this equal-low level. The bounce isn't a big one, and the BIX will find resistance in the 359-360 zone. The BIX is at 356.49 as I type. This is one of the levels I suggested as a possible bounce point.

Jeff Bailey : 8/8/2005 9:56:40 AM

Baidu.com (BIDU) $140.50 +14% ... here's my bar chart with a BLUE fitted 38.2% retracement at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 8/8/2005 9:55:38 AM

QQQQ blasts back above 39.50 on a burst of volume, reaching for the pivot at 39.57 as the short cycle channel ticks back up: Link . I suspect that the Fed's dealers have just received the morning repo announcement, but there's nothing yet on the Fed website.

Linda Piazza : 8/8/2005 9:55:05 AM

OEX still testing Keltner resistance, now at 572.05 on 15-minute closes, with the OEX at 572.16 as I type. Next support at 571.08 and next resistance at 573.55-573.94.

Linda Piazza : 8/8/2005 9:50:30 AM

The SOX turns slightly lower rather than following some other indices higher, but it could still be forming a bear flag, too. Next Keltner support at 469.55-469.83 with support below that at 467.36, this on a 15-minute chart. Next resistance at 472.63-472.76. On a daily chart, the SOX looks vulnerable to 464.57 until and unless it can produce daily closes above a Keltner line now at 475.41. That vulnerability doesn't preclude a possible bounce, perhaps from the 468-ish zone or the current level, up to test that resistance, perhaps forming a right shoulder for its possible H&S. Bears need to have decided how they'll deal with a bounce if one begins and whether they're willing to endure a possible day's long right-shoulder test.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/8/2005 9:47:50 AM

Ten year note yields have pulled back down to 4.395%, +.3 bps today, with ZN futures going positive, +1/64 at 110 1/8.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/8/2005 9:42:55 AM

Volume breadth is +2.35:1 on the NYSE and +1.68:1 on the Nasdaq as QQQQ breaks the 39.47 low. 30 and 60 min channel support line up at 39.37. Link

Linda Piazza : 8/8/2005 9:41:55 AM

The OEX's climb has been stronger than a bear would have liked, but it's so far being stopped at Keltner resistance at 572.06 on a 15-minute closing basis, with the OEX currently at 571.93. The next Keltner resistance is at 573.58-573.93, a level I thought might get tested if the OEX were going to reform into a bear flag that came back up to retest broken support. Not entirely sure it will happen.

Linda Piazza : 8/8/2005 9:39:02 AM

Unlike the SOX, the RUT is trying to rise, having broken above a coiling formation, but also watch for the possibility that it's just reforming itself into a bear flag that will retrace some of the end-of-the-week decline. Bears want to see a corrective-type move higher, if it continues to bounce, indicative of a flag.

Linda Piazza : 8/8/2005 9:37:38 AM

Benchmarking impressions: The advdec line is showing extreme high levels as diagnosed by the 15-minute Keltner channels. Such an early-morning push can lead to a sideways pattern in the advdec line for the rest of the day, as it did last Tuesday, but it can sometimes also suggest a pop-and-drop setup. Do not trade on this information, as it's just benchmarking impressions so we can see if they're valid or not. They may turn out not to be.

Linda Piazza : 8/8/2005 9:34:23 AM

SOX slightly higher, but not by much. I mentioned late last week a possibility that the SOX could test 574 or possibly 577-578 this week and consolidate there as it formed a right shoulder for a possible H&S formation on its 60-minute chart. So far, it's not showing much propensity to rise.

Linda Piazza : 8/8/2005 9:32:39 AM

Tentative upside break out of the coiling formation on the OEX's 15-minute chart, produced at the bottom of Friday's range, so watch now for the possibility that formation will resolve into a bear flag that will climb toward 573-574. OEX at 571.73 as I type.

Jeff Bailey : 8/8/2005 9:32:00 AM

Nortel (NT) $2.65 Link ... marked higher at $2.86 after the telecom equipment maker reported Q2 earnings of $45 million, or $0.01 a share, up from a year-ago profit of $16 million, or breakeven on a per-share basis. The latest results include charges of $90 million related to restructuring activities and $39 million in costs from the sale of businesses and assets. Revenue rose in the latest quarter to $2.86 billion from $2.59 billion. Analysts expected a profit of a $0.01 per share on revenue of $2.69 billion.

Jeff Bailey : 8/8/2005 9:28:42 AM

LabOne (LABS) $37.64 Link ... surges to $42.65 after the company said it has agreed to merge with Quest Diagnostics (DGX) $47.50 Link in a deal valued at $934 million, or $43.90 a share. Quest will also assume $132 million in LabOne's convertible debt.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/8/2005 9:24:47 AM

QQQQ's 30 and 60 min cycles are in upphases this morning, but price has been unable to break out of Friday's last hour high at 39.60. Bears need to break the price back below 39.47-.40 to stall what has set up as synchronous intraday upphases this morning, opposed to the daily and weekly downphases now in progress.

Jeff Bailey : 8/8/2005 9:24:08 AM

Yahoo! Inc. (YHOO) $33.52 Link ... ticking higher at $33.90 on Forbes.com report that the company is in advanced talks to buy about 35% of Alibaba.com, China's biggest homegrown e-commerce company, for $1 billion. If true, the deal would be the biggest investment by a foreign company in China's Internet industry. Alibaba is an online trading site and operates Taobaocom, an online auction site.

Jeff Bailey : 8/8/2005 9:18:53 AM

JDS Uniphase (JDSU) $1.49 Link ... atop this morning's most active list and higher at $1.57 after J.P. Morgan upgraded the networking gear maker to "neutral" from "underweight," citing improved margins.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/8/2005 8:54:01 AM

Ten year notes have recovered slightly off their lows, but TNX is up 1.4 bps to 4.406% here. 4.4% is a significant confluence level, above which next resistance is at 4.44%. Link

Jane Fox : 8/8/2005 8:43:35 AM

Dateline WSJ Cisco is considering buying Finnish handset maker Nokia, United Kingdom newspaper the Business reports, without citing sources. Cisco has traditionally concentrated on acquisitions of niche technology players, but Chief Executive John Chambers is believed to be interested in merging with a big wireless infrastructure company, and Nokia has been identified as the most likely target. Cisco and Nokia declined to comment on the report. Cisco has a market capitalization of about $123 billion, while Nokia sports a market value of $71 billion.

Linda Piazza : 8/8/2005 8:41:01 AM

After being mostly contained with one of the 15-minute nested Keltner channels for weeks, the OEX finally followed the other indices lower Friday and broke down out of that channel. The breakdown was mostly over by mid-morning, though, with only a slight easing after that and then a coiling. That may be because the OEX was approaching daily Keltner support that now ranges from 565.74 to 569.63. The OEX came within a few cents of the topmost of those numbers. The bottom number marks the mid-channel S/R level for the daily chart. Unfortunately, the OEX often tends to consolidate around that number for a few days once it's touched or approached. That doesn't always happen, but it happens often enough that OEX traders need to be aware of the possibility of another choppy range setting up, perhaps from 569-574 or perhaps from 565-570. We can hope that doesn't happen, but the OEX has had a tendency for a long time now to move, hunker down into a choppy consolidation zone and then stay there for a week or more. Keep in mind that this week's FOMC meeting might interrupt that tendency, getting the OEX moving a bit sooner.

So which of those zones is the most likely if there's going to be some consolidation? As the trending day ended Friday, the OEX was coiling into a neutral triangle. Such a triangle at the bottom of a drop would usually signify a downside break. Futures are slightly higher this morning, however, and a break above 571.20, confirmed by a move above 571.63, would suggest that the coil is being broken to the upside. Watch for the potential that the coil is just resolving into a bear flag in that case, however, rising up to test 573-574 resistance.

If such a downside break occurs, bears hoping for a drop through that daily mid-channel Keltner S/R want to see a 60-minute close beneath a Keltner line currently at 569.97, and they would prefer the break be decisive. Failing that, though, the OEX may be more likely to retest 573-574 and to turn down from there, possibly to bump around between S/R until it softens one or the other. My guess would be that it would eventually fall through to the downside, but that depends entirely on what happens as resistance is tested this week, if it is.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/8/2005 8:35:47 AM

RIYADH, Saudi Arabia, Aug. 7 (UPI) -- Saudi Arabia said Sunday it was working to bring back to the kingdom a total of $360 billion invested abroad in the last 18 months.

Foreign Minister Prince Saud al-Faisal told reporters the government was working on returning these "national assets" back to the oil-rich Arab country and to attract foreign investments in Saudi Arabia.


Jane Fox : 8/8/2005 8:27:19 AM

Dateline CNN Peter Jennings, the longtime anchor of ABC's "World News Tonight," died Sunday, the news network reports. He was 67

Jonathan Levinson : 8/8/2005 7:56:25 AM

Bonds are dropping, ten year notes losing 110 to print a low of 109 32/32 here.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/8/2005 7:37:27 AM

Equities are up, ES trading 1232, NQ 1611, YM 10588 and QQQQ +.07 at 39.55. Gold is up a dime to 439.90, silver up .026 to 7.184, ten year notes down 1/64 to 110 3/32 and crude oil is up .375 to 62.675.

There are no major economic reports scheduled for today.

Linda Piazza : 8/8/2005 7:09:50 AM

Good morning. The Nikkei fell sharply in early trading amid political uncertainty, but zoomed higher in the afternoon, managing a modestly positive close that was nevertheless more than 160 points off its low of the day. Other Asian markets turned in mixed performances. European markets are positive, helped by oil majors as crude hits record highs. Our futures are positive. As of 6:54 EST, gold was lower by $0.10, and crude, higher by $0.38, to $62.69. More detail about Asian and European markets follows in succeeding paragraphs.

The Nikkei gapped almost 100 points lower at Monday's open, dropped lower, and then coiled the rest of the morning session. That coil broke to the upside, and the Nikkei climbed all during the afternoon session, closing higher by 12.50 points or 0.11%, at 11,778.98. It closed more than 160 points off its low of the day.

Early in the day, the bourse had been hurt by declines in U.S. stocks, rising crude and political concerns. Lawmakers were set to vote on Prime Minister Koizumi's postal privatization bill, with the prime minister staking his political future on the outcome of that bill. Most political pundits felt that his party would support him and vote for this bill he's called the biggest reform in more than 100 years, due to his threat of resigning and dissolving the lower house, but that didn't occur. The bill was defeated with 51 of his own party members voting against it. Prime Minister Koizumi set an emergency Cabinet meeting for the purpose of dissolving the parliament and scheduled an election for September 11. Some believe that it's far from certain that Kozumi's Liberal Democratic Part will retain power, but others hope that an election will see Koizumi back in power and the postal privatization bill ultimately passed. Perhaps that hope or a sell-the-rumor, buy-the-fact result led to the afternoon bounce. Others feel that the rejection might be good news for the nation. Perhaps there's some volatility surrounding the Bank of Japan meeting, too, due to conclude tomorrow with a decision to keep policy steady. However, with 51 of Koizumi's party voting against his bill, this makes the political risks high in Japan, and brings some uncertainty that could be reflected in volatile stock market movements.

Exporters and banks were two groups declining in early trading. The privatization bill includes a compromise condition that requires post offices to offer insurance services and postal savings for at least 10 years from the time that the sale of the postal services is begun. Before the compromise, such services would have been stopped, allowing banks and insurers to sell their products at postal outlets, but the bill is still credited with creating the world's largest private bank.

Other Asian markets were mixed. The Taiwan Weighted lost 1.02%, and South Korea's Kospi declined 0.25%. Singapore's Straits Times climbed 0.40%, and Hong Kong's Hang Seng rose 0.38%. China's Shanghai Composite gained 0.90%.

European markets climb despite crude's rise and some other factors. Oil majors climbed, contributing to gains in some of the bourses. In the U.K., July's input prices climbed 1.8% month over month, rising more than the expected 1.5%, against a revised-higher June figure. Year over year, the rate rose 13.4% from June's revised 12.5%. Output prices also increased more than expected, to 0.7% month over month against expectations of a 0.2% rise, with a year over year rise of 3.0% from June's 2.5%. Core output prices rose 0.4% month over month. Crude oil prices, of course, were responsible for most of the increases, and imported foods and parts also contributed. However, separate figures show that house price inflation eased to 5.0% year over year in June, down from May's 6.0% increase.

Deals were in the news. A British financial newspaper speculated that Cisco could be interested in Nokia, and Marconi confirmed that China's Huwaei Technologies might acquire the company. Both Nokia and Marconi were climbing in early trading. In other M&A news, Centrica and A.P. Moeller Maersk bought some of Kerr-McGee's North Sea oil assets, with Centrica dropping afterwards while A.P. Moeller Maersk climbed sharply. In other news, a newspaper speculated that Bayer will raise earnings and sales guidance Wednesday, and the company's stock gained. Standard Chartered soared after the bank reported its first-half pre-tax profit growth. Lehman Brothers downgraded another bank, Royal Bank of Scotland, but the bank's stock was still modestly positive.

As of 6:53 EST, the FTSE 100 was higher by 33.60 points or 0.63%, at 5,348.30. The CAC 40 was higher by 35.27 points or 0.80%, at 4,456.97. The DAX was higher by 30.96 point or 0.64%, at 4,858.14.

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