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Jeff Bailey : 8/10/2005 12:29:35 AM

Sept. Crude (cl05u) is up $0.12 at $63.19.

Jeff Bailey : 8/10/2005 12:28:44 AM

NASDAQ e-mini (nq05u) are down 0.50 at 1,607.00.

e-mini S&P (es05u) are up 0.50 at 1,234.75

Dow-mini (ym05u) are up 5.0 at 10,637

Jeff Bailey : 8/10/2005 12:12:57 AM

Program Trading Levels for Wednesday ... HL Camp & Company has their computers set for program buying at $+3.10 and set for program selling at $+1.00.

Jeff Bailey : 8/9/2005 11:58:39 PM

Question ... Hi Jeff,

I enjoy your option and stock calls especially options....I was wondering if you could recommend an easy to use option scanner that can help me easily find the correct option trades? Is there such a thing that I can type the underlying symbol in, and tell it I want the best priced call available and it will find it?? I do a lot of option trading, I am reasonably successful but I really never know what the heck I am choosing one over the other for....

In all honesty I don't want to have to understand the deep ins and outs of gamma delta etc, I want the software to do all that for me.....

Keep the calls coming and have a nice vacation.

Regards, Leigh Reply: Leigh ... I don't use a "scanner" for the option trades I profile. Maybe I should, but I use the Point and Figure Charts, their patterns and probabilities (Professor Early Davis' study of probabilities) as well as some Pivot Matrix Analysis, then just look at an option chain and see if something looks reasonable.

Remember, just because something "looks cheap," it might be cheap for a reason. "Expensive options" can get more expensive, but they can also erode if you don't get the directional move you were looking for on a near-month expire.

Often times I'll find a stock I think is set to move, but I'll have to weigh the RISK/REWARD of owning the stock, or playing the option. Google (GOOG) options were NOT CHEAP (recent profile), but from a RISK management perspective, I thought the OPTION was the best way to go. Cisco (CSCO) ... I thought the RISK low in the stock, relative to paying up for the OPTIONS at the time of profile. Wellpoint (WLP) and Union Pacific (UNP) had options that were priced what I felt "reasonable," and with higher priced stock, I thought the OPTIONS were the way to go (volatility was low too!).

You see where I'm going here don't you? I'm not sure there's a cookie cutter out there that addresses different portions of RISK/REWARD analysis.

I could go on with "directional" vs. "range" strategies, but in brief... If you weren't a directional trader in the 1990s to early 2000s, and last several weeks even, you might have "missed out." When trading "range" strategies, you still have to be right and make sure the security doesn't trade outside the range and become a "directional" trade. Right? Yepper.

Anyhow ... Check out this Link at the CBOE and FREE SERVICES for IV Index and perhaps their Options Calculator.

If you find something that looks really interesting, or helpful that you would like to share with other traders, let me know!

Jeff Bailey : 8/9/2005 11:19:22 PM

Coca Cola (KO) $44.10 +0.98% ... it's a FOOD/beverage sector bull %.

Jeff Bailey : 8/9/2005 11:18:01 PM

Cisco Systems (CSCO) ... Dorsey/Wright has CSCO in its COMPuter sector bullish %. Today I showed that CSCO was a component in the INX.X and NWX.X. Tough to classify CSCO as just one type of sector representation. Could be a TELEphone type also.

Jeff Bailey : 8/9/2005 11:09:14 PM

Sector Bell Curve from recent volatility measure lows to current at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/9/2005 10:37:01 PM

Sector Bell Curve FOMC hike to FOMC hike comparison at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/10/2005 12:02:29 AM

Sector Bell Curve ... week-to-week changes at this Link ... Good heavens ... look at the STEEl group. Just a couple of weeks ago, they were way over to the left. Remember how they struggled for weeks and weeks? What was that stock PremierInvestor.com had in their bullish list? Some sectors are still way to the left and haven't gained any favor among buyers (FOREest/paper) is more oil/natural gas price sensitive.

As James Cramer likes to say ... "there's always a bull market somewhere...."

Jeff Bailey : 8/9/2005 10:03:04 PM

Cisco Systems (CSCO) $19.61 +1.87% ... last tick in extended session is $18.83, and that's going to right on WEEKLY S2 of $18.82. While I did adjust stop higher to $19.23 at 04:24:27 when CSCO was trading flat, it would appear that the remaining 1/4 bullish is going to get stopped at the opening tick.

Last tick in this evening's extended session is right at the initially determined stop, and while MSFT did pull a rabbit out of its hat several days after its earnings release, I'm not certain CSCO can do the same type of move higher.

Tomorrow morning I'll initiate a stop just under this evening's extended session low of $18.70, and let's take it from there.

May look for CSCO bounce to $19.24, but if that's correlative with a QQQQ back at that $39.60 level (from past option trade activity observation), then I'll probably look to get flat CSCO near-term.

I'm not leaving for vacation until the end of the month, but I've got some OI-related things I want to get done for the MM and they might need some testing. I'd like to get these things up and running before I take off.

I'll probably profile a couple of two-to-three month option expiration trades between then and now, but nothing that takes much intra-day monitoring.

OI Technical Staff : 8/9/2005 9:59:59 PM

The Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

Disclaimer: Stocks discussed in the Market Monitor are for educational purposes only and any analysis is not meant to imply a recommendation for or against that stock. The analysts in this forum as on any other website are prohibited by the SEC from giving any specific advice to ANY individual trader. All information posted is for ALL readers and is not meant to be directed to any individual. Our analysts cannot answer any email questions regarding any specific stock. Please do not ask and please do not take offense if requests are denied.

Results posted in the Market Monitor are hypothetical and OIN does not claim that any reader achieved these exact results. Due to the lag time between research, writing, posting, uploading, reading and execution there will be differences between the actual signal given and the fill achieved by the reader. Fills may be better or worse but in most cases they will be different. The writers will make every effort to give advance notice of intended signals and indicate potential price targets. Your individual results may vary depending on your activity level and aggressiveness. This forum is intended as an education service only. Trading involves risk and should not be attempted by anyone not ready to accept this risk. By acting on any signal in this forum you agree and personally accept this risk.

Jeff Bailey : 8/9/2005 10:01:51 PM

Cisco Systems (CSCO) $19.61 +1.87% ... last tick in extended session is $18.83, and that's going to right be right on WEEKLY S2 of $18.82 (see 04/02/54 post/chart). While I did adjust stop higher to $19.23 at 04:24:27 when CSCO was trading flat, it would appear that the remaining 1/4 bullish is going to get stopped at the opening tick.

Last tick in this evening's extended session is right at the initially determined stop, and while MSFT did pull a rabbit out of its hat several days after its earnings release, I'm not certain CSCO can do the same type of move higher.

Tomorrow morning I'll initiate a stop just under this evening's extended session low of $18.70, and let's take it from there.

May look for CSCO bounce to $19.24, but if that's correlative with a QQQQ back at that $39.60 level (from past option trade activity observation), then I'll probably look to get flat CSCO near-term.

I'm not leaving for vacation until the end of the month, but I've got some OI-related things I want to get done for the MM and they might need some testing. I'd like to get these things up and running before I take off.

I'll probably profile a couple of two-to-three month option expiration trades between then and now, but nothing that takes much intra-day monitoring.

Jeff Bailey : 8/9/2005 6:29:13 PM

S&P 100 Index (OEX.X) Top 33 weighted components at this Link ... here were the top 33 weighted the night of 06/30/05 at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/9/2005 6:17:39 PM

Balanced Benchmark since 06/30/05 rebalance at this Link ... good benchmark tonight as last FOMC meeting was 06/30/05.

Jeff Bailey : 8/9/2005 6:01:01 PM

QQQQ $39.45 +0.66% ... ticking at $39.37.

Jeff Bailey : 8/9/2005 5:57:33 PM

Whatever "down slightly" means, that would look to be what the negative extended session is focusing on.

Jeff Bailey : 8/9/2005 5:55:05 PM

Cisco Systems (CSCO) $19.61 +1.87% ... $18.96 extended. Some notes from call have company's Q4 gross margins slipping to 67.9% from 68.4% a year ago. Core router, swtich business up single digits. China still "uniquely challenging." Industry seeing slowing momentum in Europe. Sees fiscal year 2006 new order growth 10%-15% with Q1 revenues up 10% vs. a year ago. Sees Q1 revenue down "slightly" from Q4. Sees fiscal 2006 revenue up 10%-12% and gross margins at 66%-67%.

Jeff Bailey : 8/9/2005 5:43:50 PM

Cisco Systems (CSCO) $19.61 +1.87% ... now lower at $18.93.

Jeff Bailey : 8/9/2005 5:43:05 PM

Educational futures recap ... updated to today's 11:28:06 post at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/9/2005 5:34:43 PM

Pivot Matrix for tomorrow at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/9/2005 5:05:47 PM

Closing U.S. Market Watch at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/9/2005 4:51:17 PM

Cisco Systems (CSCO) $19.61 +1.87% ... still rather quiet at $19.70 extended. Post-close high/low so far has been $19.83-$19.50.

Jeff Bailey : 8/9/2005 4:49:57 PM

Closing Internals found at this Link ... NYSE 10-day NH/NL needs a closing reading of 86.00% to see 3-box reversal. NASDAQ 10-day NH/NL needs a reading of 84.00% (see charts in last night's MM). Today's NASDAQ NH/NL readings 83:35 almost identical to yesterday's 82:34.

Jeff Bailey : 8/9/2005 4:28:40 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles found at this Link ... Today's Activity ... Swing trade stopped on the one (1) Google GOOG Sep $310 Calls (GGD-IB) when the underlying stock traded $289 at $4.10 bid ($-3.10, or -43.06%)

Jeff Bailey : 8/9/2005 4:24:27 PM

Bullish swing trade raise stop alert on the 1/4 bullish position in Cisco Systems (CSCO) $19.64 extended, to break even ($19.23).

Jeff Bailey : 8/9/2005 4:19:20 PM

Disney (DIS) $26.14 +2.87% ... $25.99 in extended after Dow component reports Q3 EPS of $0.41 vs. $0.29 year-ago. Revenues $7.71 billioin vs. year ago $7.47 billion (+3.3%).

Jeff Bailey : 8/9/2005 4:17:08 PM

Stock split ... Titanium Metals (TIE) $61.80 -0.43% ... declares 2:1

Jeff Bailey : 8/9/2005 4:15:22 PM

Cisco Systems (CSCO) $19.61 +1.87% ... $19.56 here ... DAILY Pivot Levels for tomorrow $19.24, $19.43, Piv= $19.58, $19.77, $19.92.

Jeff Bailey : 8/9/2005 4:07:53 PM

Cisco Systems (CSCO) $19.61 ... flat in extended with headline Q4 EPS of $0.24 vs. year-ago $0.20. Q4 sales $6.58 billion vs. year-ago $5.93 billion (+11%)

Q4 Non-GAAP $0.25 ... inline with consensus of $0.25 per share

Jeff Bailey : 8/9/2005 4:02:54 PM

Cisco Systems (CSCO) $19.61 +1.87% ... here a 15-minute interval chart with retracement I've been following/trading as well as QCharts' WEEKLY Pivot Levels. Link

Linda Piazza : 8/9/2005 4:00:20 PM

Yep. OEX and many other indices ended the day still building possible right shoulders for inverse H&S's, neither invalidating nor confirming those formations.

Jeff Bailey : 8/9/2005 3:53:41 PM

QQQQ $39.44 +0.63% ... earlier today I mentioned VIX.X and SPX regarding 15-minute interval and 200-pd SMA. Here's a QQQQ and 15-minute with CSCO just ahead. Link ... Was looking at major indices last night on various time intervals and just noticed the commonality of the 200-pd SMA's on 15-minute intervals.

See that little "pop" above the 200-day MA? That's where I profiled a swing trade long from at $39.75. That was not a good entry point as it turns out. So... for strength, need some lasting strength above the 200-pd is my thought.

Linda Piazza : 8/9/2005 3:52:24 PM

Barring some strong moves in the last ten minutes of trading, which could of course occur, I think it likely we'll end the day with potential inverse H&S's on many indices neither confirmed nor invalidated yet. That will at least give us something to watch tomorrow morning. The OEX is headed up now, so may try for a confirmation again in the last few minutes of trading, but symmetry suggests it still has four or five more 15-minute periods at least before we should be getting either a confirmation or invalidation. Fear of CSCO or anticipation of CSCO could change that, of course.

Linda Piazza : 8/9/2005 3:47:52 PM

OEX testing mid-channel Keltner resistance from below, with that resistance at 572.38-572.44, with Keltner support just below, from 571.55-571.87. The OEX is in an appropriate right-shoulder level.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/9/2005 3:46:10 PM

QQQQ is back to where it was this morning, testing key 39.40-.42 resistance from below. The daily cycle downphase continues, within which the 30 min cycle upphase has topped and is beginning its downphase, while the 60 min cycle upphase has stalled but not yet reversed.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/9/2005 3:43:45 PM




Linda Piazza : 8/9/2005 3:42:48 PM

Add the Wilshire 5000 to that list in my 3:42 post.

Linda Piazza : 8/9/2005 3:42:03 PM

Dow, OEX, SPX, SOX, RLX, and BIX all have potential inverse H&S's, although the BIX is close to violating its version if it drops too much lower. The RUT invalidated its version.

Linda Piazza : 8/9/2005 3:40:11 PM

OEX trying to steady at an appropriate right-shoulder level, too, for its potential inverse H&S. No confirmation and no invalidation.

Linda Piazza : 8/9/2005 3:36:04 PM

SOX trying to steady at an appropriate right-shoulder level for the SOX's version of an inverse H&S. This steadying often occurs early in a right-shoulder formation, whether the formation will be ultimately invalidated or confirmed. SOX at 470.99 as I type.

Jeff Bailey : 8/9/2005 3:33:36 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles found at this Link ... Cisco Systems (CSCO) update alert for those that have been trading CSCO with me and have taken profits on the initial 1/2 bullish from $19.01, I will carry CSCO over tonight's earnings. My lingering thoughts are "negative YHOO" trade from earnings, but also "bullish trade from EBAY and AMZN." Current CSCO position is just 1/4 bullish, so using some account/trade management, I've tried to reduce risk, but allow for further upside into tonight's earnings report.

That QQQQ $40.10 "bad tick" still on my mind. One way to get it there is a positive surprise from CSCO.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/9/2005 3:30:58 PM

The 30 min cycle has rolled over for QQQQ, while the 60 min is stalled. Below 39.30, it should follow to the downside. The 72 SMA is turning lower now at 39.46.

Linda Piazza : 8/9/2005 3:28:09 PM

Benchmarking impressions: the advdec line now tests last support before a drop toward -696 to -470. That support is at 184 on 15-minute closes, with the advdec line just hitting a value of 174 but now at 215.

Linda Piazza : 8/9/2005 3:26:54 PM

The OEX is struggling to hold onto Keltner support down to 571.69 on 15-minute closes, with the OEX at 571.57. If this support does not hold, the OEX is vulnerable to 570.05, probably about the bottom allowable level for a right shoulder for an inverse H&S. Short-term bulls would rather that the OEX steadied right here. I won't be participating in any bullish plays.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/9/2005 3:24:07 PM

Don't forget CSCO, which releases earnings after the bell- I believe at 4:30.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/9/2005 3:21:37 PM

Just for a laugh (or perhaps not), but I suspect that the market gyrations of the past hour have been caused by confusion from this sentence in the Fed statement:

Core inflation has been relatively low in recent months and longer-term inflation expectations remain well contained, but pressures on inflation have stayed elevated.

Linda Piazza : 8/9/2005 3:18:58 PM

Benchmarking impressions: the advdec line did lose its support and now drops toward next support at 189. Below that, it's at -673 to -468.

Jeff Bailey : 8/9/2005 3:19:10 PM

Dumping 1/4 bullish position in Baidu.com (BIDU) here at $99.45 in personal account.

Linda Piazza : 8/9/2005 3:18:07 PM

As Jeff's post just indicated would be true, the RUT has dropped to a low below yesterday's invalidating its potential inverse H&S. However, the drop is into a possible double-bottom area when compared to yesterday's low.

Jeff Bailey : 8/9/2005 3:17:00 PM

iShare Russell 2000 Growth (IWO) $67.32 -0.53% ... breaks below yesterday's low.

Linda Piazza : 8/9/2005 3:16:27 PM

OEX dropping into Keltner support. Be careful, bears, of getting too gleeful here, because I've been waiting all day for a possible drop into a right shoulder for the potential inverse H&S. The OEX has needed a drop to 570-571. It's after that drop that we learn what happens next. Bears want a new low below yesterday's to invalidate the formation and bulls want a steadying around 570-571 and a rounding up from there. I wouldn't be participating in a bullish play myself, but rather using a climb to establish whether last week's highs were the intermediate highs.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/9/2005 3:16:04 PM

QQQQ breaks the range low, heading for 30 min and 60 min channel support at 39.32.

Jeff Bailey : 8/9/2005 3:14:17 PM

S&P Banks (BIX.X) 356.07 +0.41% ... not showing much of a bullish fight. If anything, today's LOWER yield trade in the 10-year and today's FOMC raising by 25 basis point narrows the lending spread a bit. Perhaps bulls wanted to see a higher yield?

Jeff Bailey : 8/9/2005 3:10:15 PM

03:00 Internals found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 8/9/2005 3:08:08 PM

QQQQ just dipped its toe below the 72 SMA at 39.47 and recoiled on a doji spike from 39.44 (3-min candle basis). Diet-sized intraday QQQQ chart at this Link

Linda Piazza : 8/9/2005 3:08:03 PM

RLX pulling back into a possible right shoulder for a H&S, too. It may be these quick-moving indices, the ones that fell so very precipitously, that give us our first glimpse of confirmation/invalidation on these potential inverse H&S's.

Linda Piazza : 8/9/2005 3:06:55 PM

The RUT tried lifting one hand off the ground, but it tired and is sinking back again. Still has a possible inverse H&S, but it's also still in breakdown mode on the 15-minute chart.

Linda Piazza : 8/9/2005 3:05:55 PM

While some indices are trying to build possible inverse H&S at the bottom of their descents off last week's highs, the VIX may be building a regular H&S on its 15-minute and 30-minute charts, rising now into a possible right shoulder. Bears want the VIX to keep climbing, above yesterday's high. Bulls want a rollover beneath today's low.

Linda Piazza : 8/9/2005 3:03:36 PM

Whew! What a relief. Crude futures ended lower, at $63.15. We can all go celebrate the low prices. Rally the markets! (This is sarcasm, folks, for those not sure.)

Jeff Bailey : 8/9/2005 3:02:54 PM

03:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 8/9/2005 3:01:54 PM

Keltner resistance still holds on the OEX, and now it's descending to test Keltner support, at 472.95 on 15-minute closes (currently being tested) and then at 571.88-572.41.

Linda Piazza : 8/9/2005 3:00:58 PM

Benchmarking impressions: the advdec line may be again losing Keltner support, vulnerable to 700, and maybe to 193.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/9/2005 2:58:45 PM

The pickup in QQQQ volume is still quite thin, just 44.9M shares traded today, compared with a 64.6M total yesterday and the 80.5M average. But up volume is still more than doubling down volume on both exchanges, the TRIN and TRINQ both at the low end of neutral at .58 and .6 respectively.

Jeff Bailey : 8/9/2005 2:55:24 PM

Microsoft (MSFT) $27.44 +1.14% ... "bad tick" in last 10-minutes to $26.85.

Linda Piazza : 8/9/2005 2:54:21 PM

Dow back below its breakout point on the 15-minute chart, too, after closing minimally above the zone that would set a new upside target. Keltner resistance at 10,627.05-10,630.61 on 15-minute closes. Dow at 10,621.88 as I type.

Linda Piazza : 8/9/2005 2:53:14 PM

OEX can't break above Keltner resistance again. Still trying. Resistance at 573.55-573.82 on 15-minute closes. First support at 573.01, and then clustered from 571.84-572.40 on 15-minute closes.

The daily chart shows the OEX challenging important daily Keltner resistance at 572.97 on daily closes, with support clustered from 565.91-569.75. I've mentioned several times that the OEX might have some chopping around to do, as it often does chop around a bit after testing that mid-channel Keltner support on the daily chart. OEX at 573.24 as I type.

Linda Piazza : 8/9/2005 2:50:25 PM

The BIX is one index that is doing a relatively good job of pulling back into a right shoulder for a possible inverse H&S. It's doing so below the 15-minute 100/130-ema's, currently at 357.25-357.89. The neckline would be an ascending one and would now cross at about the level of the 130-ema, confirmed by a 15-minute close above that level. Confirmation of this formation would possibly take the BIX up to retest its now converging 200-sma and -ema's, up just above 360. An invalidation of the formation by a fall to a new low below yesterday's would likely result in a drop to the bottom of its broadening formation, now at about 351.10. The BIX is at 356.35 as I type.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/9/2005 2:49:54 PM

Ten year notes have caught a bid, driving to session highs at 109 27/32, TNX back below 4.4% at 4.396%, -2.3 bps here.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/9/2005 2:48:21 PM

Sell volume is picking up, breadth still strongly positive at +2.25:1 on the Nasdaq, as the short cycle upphase stalls.

Jeff Bailey : 8/9/2005 2:46:36 PM

Intra-day trader might want to check out a 15-minute interval chart of VIX.X and SPX.X with their 200-pd SMA.

Linda Piazza : 8/9/2005 2:46:00 PM

I thought so. The OEX erases its Keltner breakout signal and that 576.68 upside target. Not sure that the OEX is through challenging that resistance, though, now at 573.52-573.81 on 15-minute closes.

Jeff Bailey : 8/9/2005 2:45:55 PM

VIX.X 12.50 -5.37% ... has refused to break under WEEKLY Pivot/DAILY S2 correlation with any thrust. Session low marked at 12.24.

Linda Piazza : 8/9/2005 2:45:05 PM

SOX 15-minute Keltner resistance at 474.38 on 15-minute closes holds, but the SOX now tests mid-channel support, at the current 473-ish level, down to 470.80 on 15-minute closes.

Linda Piazza : 8/9/2005 2:39:06 PM

The OEX is pausing after producing its breakout signal. Just pausing, but it's as if that candle is sitting up there by itself, twittering back and forth and creating a spinning top (so far), saying, "Wait. Where's everybody else? I didn't mean to run ahead of the pack. I thought we were all going this direction." Sorry for the anthropomorphism.

Jeff Bailey : 8/9/2005 2:38:38 PM

QQQQ $39.56 +0.94% ... session high $39.59 ... a penny shy of that $39.60 level.

Jeff Bailey : 8/9/2005 2:37:01 PM

Baidu.com (BIDU) $101.50 -13% ... no shorts here. Can't short IPO's for 90-days.

Jeff Bailey : 8/9/2005 2:36:01 PM

I do get the feeling bulk of buying is short covering at this point.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/9/2005 2:35:51 PM

30 and 60 min channel resistance have climbed to 39.60 QQQQ here, the short cycle indicators just entering overbought territory now. 72 SMA support is up to 39.46, 1st confluence at 39.52. Can't wait to get my intraday indicators back up.

Jeff Bailey : 8/9/2005 2:34:38 PM

10-year YIELD ($TNX.X) 4.419% (unch) ... suddenly looks a long way to 4.25% if short equity futures.

Linda Piazza : 8/9/2005 2:34:09 PM

SOX battles 15-minute Keltner resistance at 474.24 on 15-minute closes, with the SOX at 474.19 as I type. Strange to see the OEX in a leadership roll. Just time for it to take a turn or is this telling us something about rotation and unwillingness to take on the riskier small and mid-caps?

Linda Piazza : 8/9/2005 2:31:19 PM

The OEX sets an upside target of 576.62, but be careful about betting all your pennies on that being reached. This upside test should tell us a lot, and it might tell us that bulls have had their heyday (should that be hay-day?). It may tell us they haven't, but that's what we're proving this week.

Jeff Bailey : 8/9/2005 2:31:09 PM

Buy premium comes as SPX trades WEEKLY Pivot.

Jeff Bailey : 8/9/2005 2:30:45 PM

Buy Program Premium ... DIA $106.33, SPY $123.46, QQQQ $39.55

Jonathan Levinson : 8/9/2005 2:30:31 PM

Crude oil futures finished -.85 at 63.10, 10 cents above the low.

Linda Piazza : 8/9/2005 2:29:41 PM

I noticed today that on a Keltner basis, the OEX is outperforming the SPX and the NDX is outperforming the Nasdaq. That would go along with the impression that the RUT isn't performing at all. Today it's the blue chips that are trying to lead the markets, at least according to Keltner evidence.

Linda Piazza : 8/9/2005 2:28:29 PM

Dow testing 15-minute Keltner resistance at 10,622.74 on 15-minute closes, with the Dow at 10,620.53 as I type.

Jeff Bailey : 8/9/2005 2:27:50 PM

S&P Banks Index (BIX.X) 356.75 +0.60% ... still below sessiion high and WEEKLY Pivot (358.13)

Jonathan Levinson : 8/9/2005 2:27:49 PM

Despite the sideways chop, prices continue to edge upward for QQQQ, with no sign that the pause in the overbought 30 min cycle indicators is likely to reverse lower. Bears need a break back below the 39.40-.42 confluence area, but so far the upward pressure continues to dominate. Volume breadth is up to +2.98:1 on the NYSE, +2.12:1 on the Nasdaq.

Jeff Bailey : 8/9/2005 2:27:04 PM

Dow Diamonds (DIA) $106.23 +0.66% .. making way above WEEKLY Pivot.

Linda Piazza : 8/9/2005 2:27:19 PM

The OEX is again testing that Keltner resistance at 573.28 on 15-minute closes, with the OEX at 573.50 as I type, and making a stronger bid for higher values. No 15-minute close above that resistance yet, though.

Linda Piazza : 8/9/2005 2:26:05 PM

The RUT has barely been able to lift a finger off the floor today, much less sit up. It's at 661.21 as I type, still in breakdown mode on the 15-minute Keltner channel. Yesterday's low was 659.11. The RUT does, however, also have a potential inverse H&S, although one with a small upside target. Neckline perhaps at about 663.12, although it's a roughly formed formation and the neckline might not be exact.

Linda Piazza : 8/9/2005 2:23:21 PM

Fifteen-minute Keltner resistance holding on the OEX. No breakout and new upside signal yet. Keltner support so far holds, too.

Jeff Bailey : 8/9/2005 2:23:16 PM

10-year YIELD ($TNX.X) "spiked" to morning low of 43.94, or 4.394%, but firm at DAILY S1 (for those trading against benchmark yield).

Linda Piazza : 8/9/2005 2:21:05 PM

Here comes another OEX test of Keltner resistance, at 573.26 on 15-minute closes, with the OEX at 573.26 as It ype.

Jeff Bailey : 8/9/2005 2:20:10 PM

Buy Program Premium ... DIA $106.14, SPY $123.30, QQQQ $39.50

Linda Piazza : 8/9/2005 2:19:14 PM

OEX still trapped between Keltner support and Keltner resistance.

Jeff Bailey : 8/9/2005 2:19:12 PM

FOMC raises 25 bp. 10th rate hike.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/9/2005 2:18:51 PM









Linda Piazza : 8/9/2005 2:18:42 PM

Not much reaction yet. Measured statement still included.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/9/2005 2:18:08 PM

New session highs for equities, treasuries back in the green.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/9/2005 2:17:44 PM

Text of Fed statement at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 8/9/2005 2:16:15 PM

Crude oil -.80 to 63.15 here. Session low for ten year notes, TNX +1.7 bps at 4.437%.

Linda Piazza : 8/9/2005 2:13:27 PM

Be careful, as the first reaction is not always the final one. The OEX's 15-minute chart suggests that a 15-minute close above a Keltner line currently at 573.18 would set an upside target of 576.55, but treat that upside target somewhat gingerly, as any initial breakout might not be sustained.

Linda Piazza : 8/9/2005 2:12:14 PM

Jane's comment on the Futures side about the VIX prompted me to look at it again. It's climbing back above the 15-minute 100/130-ema's. Bears want it to sustain these values into a 15-minute close, with those averages at 12.51 and 12.40, respectively, and the VIX currently at 12.57.

Jeff Bailey : 8/9/2005 2:09:33 PM

02:00 Internals found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 8/9/2005 2:09:01 PM

The OEX hasn't pulled back into anything other than a stumpy right shoulder, and continues to challenge Keltner resistance, up to 573.17 on 15-minute closes, with support gathering underneath, too. Watch for a possible pullback toward 570-571 into that right shoulder, and then watch for a confirmation or invalidation of the potential inverse H&S. The FOMC results may do away with the whole right-shoulder thing, however. I'm not trading this to the upside. I'm watching to see how high the bounce goes and which form it takes to decide whether the top was put in for the intermediate-term last week or if this pullback has been it.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/9/2005 2:03:35 PM

My "skeleton" intraday charts, stripped of last week's realtime data, have 30 min channel support at 39.36, resistnance at 39.54. No 60 min channels calculated yet. Volume breadth remains strongly positive, the short cycle indicators in a slow upphase on the light volume.

Jeff Bailey : 8/9/2005 2:02:02 PM

02:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 8/9/2005 1:55:11 PM

QQQQ has made it to 31.8M shares, just under half of yesterday's total. Breadth is +2.21:1 on the NYSE and +1.89:1 on the Nasdaq.

Linda Piazza : 8/9/2005 1:52:41 PM

Here's what I currently see on the SOX: the SOX is forming a potential inverse H&S just below/at the 15-minute 100/130-ema's and the 38.2% retracement of the decline off last week's high. Should it fall back, either pre- or post-FOMC decision, watch the 468 level, a potential right-shoulder level for possible support. A new low would invalidate the formation, a push above the 38.2% retracement that's sustained would confirm it (after a right-shoulder dip) but then the SOX is going to slam right into that 50% retracement of that drop, at about 475.83. Link

Linda Piazza : 8/9/2005 1:46:21 PM

None of the indices that I'm watching are doing a particularly good job at pulling back to form a right shoulder for the possible inverse H&S's on their intraday charts. The OEX isn't, currently trapped between 572.94-573.12 resistance and 572.06-572.50 support on its 15-minute chart.

Mark Davis : 8/9/2005 1:44:58 PM

Ditto Linda...

Jeff Bailey : 8/9/2005 1:44:36 PM

Baidu.com (BIDU) $103.50 -10.38% ... a different look and day trader's chart using 5-MRT technique and "dynamic" retracement at this Link ... also see (10:48:02) chart at this Link from earlier this morning.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/9/2005 1:38:00 PM

Session low for crude oil at 63.275, -.675.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/9/2005 1:34:26 PM

The 30 min cycle oscillators have stalled in overbought territory while the 60 min indicators are rising, roughly halfway up their range. The daily cycle downphase has yet to even pause, and so far this looks like a run-of-the-mill intraday correction within a broader daily and weekly cycle downphase for QQQQ. Above 39.60, that will change, as the intraday cycles would be entering potential trending territory.

Jeff Bailey : 8/9/2005 1:27:38 PM

Trying to pick up another 1/4 position of Baidu.com (BIDU) in my personal account at $104.00.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/9/2005 1:27:04 PM

I missed the 4-week bill auction results when they were released, while struggling to get Quotetracker working, which isn't happening. In any event, I think the auction was the impetus for the 1PM slide. A new multiyear high yield at 3.33% generated a strong bid to cover of 3.2. But foreign central bank participation was very weak at 2.3B of the 14B total.

Linda Piazza : 8/9/2005 1:25:44 PM

Benchmarking impressions: the advdec line threatens to fall below support now, showing some vulnerability to -76, unless it can hold near its current 767 level.

Jeff Bailey : 8/9/2005 1:14:50 PM

01:00 Internals found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 8/9/2005 1:12:05 PM

The OEX has been dropping back a little, back to mid-channel support on the 15-minute chart, with that support currently at 572.33 on 15-minute closes. A drop into a right shoulder for the potential inverse H&S would require a deeper drop, possibly to 570-571. I said earlier that I thought a drop into a right-shoulder level should occur at some time, and this may be it, but the advdec line is also dropping into possible support. The OEX is now at 572.19.

Linda Piazza : 8/9/2005 1:09:28 PM

I was recently notified by DSW Shoes that my credit card information was among information stolen back in March or April. I wasn't notified, though, until some states began threatening to sue DSW unless it notified customers whose information had been stolen.

Jeff Bailey : 8/9/2005 1:05:20 PM

CBOE Internet Index (INX.X) ... components with weightings at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/9/2005 1:04:09 PM

01:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 8/9/2005 1:03:20 PM

Recovering from a system crash here that seems to have wiped out my accumulated realtime data from the past 5 days. Trying to restore it, but for the moment I'm without intraday indicators.

Linda Piazza : 8/9/2005 12:59:01 PM

Benchmarking impressions: advdec line still dropping, toward possible 800-925 support. At 1038 as I type.

Linda Piazza : 8/9/2005 12:57:06 PM

On the Futures side, Marc is talking about another instance of identity theft. Here in Dallas, they made it easier. A truck with thousands of Federal Reserve Bank checks drove off with the back door open and checks blew everywhere. Although the checks are paid and cancelled checks, they included routing numbers for bank accounts, social security numbers in some instances, names addresses and other identifying information. One good Samaritan spent three hours picking up some of the checks and another spent some time, too.

Jeff Bailey : 8/9/2005 12:56:42 PM

Google (GOOG) $289.62 -0.55% ...

Jeff Bailey : 8/9/2005 12:56:17 PM

Baidu.com (BIDU) $101.75 -11.90% ... just under its current 19.1% "dynamic" retracement.

Jeff Bailey : 8/9/2005 12:55:34 PM

CBOE Internet Index (INX.X) 199.40 +0.50% ... little intra-day "bull wedge" forming. Needs some strength above 199.50.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/9/2005 12:54:56 PM

Session high for GE here at 34.14, +.38. QQQQ is creeping back toward the range high on dwindling volume, with 30 and 60 min channel resistance lined up at 39.58 and the 72 SMA up to 39.44. Link

Linda Piazza : 8/9/2005 12:50:46 PM

At some point or another, I would expect a pullback to test that whole inverse H&S right shoulder level on the OEX and some other indices, to see if it holds as support, but nothing on the charts tell me when (I would have expected it to have happened already) or whether that test will result in an invalidation of the formation or a confirmation.

Jeff Bailey : 8/9/2005 12:49:16 PM

Networking Index (NWX.X) Link ... components at this Link

Linda Piazza : 8/9/2005 12:48:46 PM

Benchmarking impressions: Advdec line dropping, but dropping toward possible Keltner support, at the current 1100 level and then near 800-950.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/9/2005 12:45:58 PM

Volume breadth is holding steady, +2.44:1 on the NYSE and +2.03:1 on the Nasdaq, QQQQ volume at 27.7M so far.

Linda Piazza : 8/9/2005 12:41:44 PM

Remember that 15-minute Keltner channel that contained the OEX for so many weeks? The OEX has moved today back inside that channel, moving all the way to the topside, and it's now challenging the top resistance of that channel, at 573.03 on 15-minute closes. The 15-minute candles continue to look unhealthy, but the OEX continues to climb.

Linda Piazza : 8/9/2005 12:31:11 PM

The previous 60-minute OEX candle closed right at mid-channel resistance. The current one appears to be ready to do the same, with that resistance now at 572.62 on 60-minute closes, and the OEX currently nominally above that, at 572.76. The current 60-minute candle is a small-bodied candle at resistance, still indicative of indecision. Some chart characteristics suggest that the OEX could go on challenging this resistance, while others suggest that it should pull back, at least to the appropriate right-shoulder level for a possible inverse H&S, with that at about 570.

Tab Gilles : 8/9/2005 12:28:28 PM

TLT Link EVV Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/9/2005 12:31:39 PM

Good Gravy Tab! ... If they're talking "metric tons," then that would be 1 Metric Ton = 7.33 barrels of oil. 952,900,900 barrels. Does that sound right? Energy conversion factors Link

Mark Davis : 8/9/2005 12:27:47 PM

Jeff I was afraid you would ask that question. Unfortunately we got skunked but it was a beautiful float through the canyon... Link

Tab Gilles : 8/9/2005 12:27:08 PM

CarpetGlance Link

Jonathan Levinson : 8/9/2005 12:24:57 PM

Ten year note yields are up to a 1 bp gain at 4.429%, within reach of 4.44% resistance. Crude oil is up to a 20 cent loss at 63.75, off a low of 63.30.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/9/2005 12:22:22 PM

Here's the most recent update from China Daily: Link

Tab Gilles : 8/9/2005 12:19:42 PM

Jeff, Here's a report last week from Dow Jones.... Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/9/2005 12:19:27 PM

Did you catch anything Mark?

Linda Piazza : 8/9/2005 12:17:32 PM

It's going to be a long couple of hours until that FOMC meeting concludes, isn't it?

Jeff Bailey : 8/9/2005 12:15:06 PM

EIA ... saying China's Q4 oil demand growth revised down 100,000 barrels per day.

Jeff Bailey : 8/9/2005 12:12:53 PM

12:00 Internals found at this Link

Tab Gilles : 8/9/2005 12:09:06 PM

$SOX daily Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/9/2005 12:03:58 PM

12:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 8/9/2005 11:59:34 AM

The SOX also has a potential inverse H&S on its 60-minute chart, forming at the 60-minute 100/130-ema's, head at yesterday's low, neckline at about 473.50-473.60, with the still-to-be-formed right shoulder level at about 468. If the SOX should drop back and form a right shoulder, then confirm the formation, the upside target would be at about 481.81, a little high for the appropriate right-shoulder level for the larger H&S that may be forming on the 60-minute chart, spanning a distance from mid-July to the present. Although it's a little high, it might not completely invalidate the larger H&S, if prices moved back quickly. The left shoulder had one spurt up to 480.30. I hate days when we have battling H&S and inverse H&S's, however, as it shows that bulls and bears aren't yet settled which one is winning the battle and that can lead to some choppy trading conditions.

Jeff Bailey : 8/9/2005 12:00:38 PM

Tweeter Home Entertainment (TWTR) $3.93 +18.01% ... notable percentage gainer. Mentioned this one just a couple of weeks ago based on thought stock could see gains based on recent mortgage refinance activity. Oooooeee! (see 07/15/05 05:19:59) Link

Jonathan Levinson : 8/9/2005 11:58:29 AM

Volume has slowed to a crawl here, 25.3M QQQQs traded today, with price holding its narrow range above rising 72 SMA support at 39.42. Aside from possible noise at 1PM when the 14B 4-week bill auction results come out, it should only get quieter approaching the FOMC announcement.

Jeff Bailey : 8/9/2005 11:55:22 AM

Current OPEN MM Profiles found at this Link

Mark Davis : 8/9/2005 11:54:28 AM

Jeff I set a record recently on a weekend fishing trip to Northern California, over $80 to fill up in Willow Creek, Ca... Link

Linda Piazza : 8/9/2005 11:50:07 AM

There's the potential for some indices now to form inverse H&S's at the bottom of the decline off last week's highs. The OEX is one, and is currently testing a neckline area, still in need of a right shoulder.

Jeff Bailey : 8/9/2005 11:49:12 AM

I filled up the "land yacht" (runs diesel) on Sunday here in Denver and it ran me $70!

Jonathan Levinson : 8/9/2005 11:47:19 AM

This story made the front page today. Is it a possible "headline indicator" sell signal?

Gas prices in Montreal reached an all-time high of $1.084/10 for a litre of regular unleaded yesterday, leaving motorists with little hope that under-a-dollar prices will be back anytime soon.

"The psychological barrier of $1 (a litre) has been broken forever," said a glum-looking Yvon Soucy as he filled up his SUV at the corner of Sherbrooke St. and St. Laurent Blvd., one of the last stations on the island to raise its price.


Linda Piazza : 8/9/2005 11:43:29 AM

The OEX is still climbing, into a test of 572.62 Keltner resistance on the 60-minute chart, on 60-minute closes, with the OEX currently at 572.67. However, when you look back at the 15-minute chart, those candles just don't look too healthy, so I'd be wary right now, whether long or short. Those 15-minute candles have small bodies, upper shadows, and other signs that they're not as vigorous as they might be. The VIX is trying to steady. The advdec line is coiling.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/9/2005 11:33:44 AM

Ten year notes are still positive, but have reversed most of their gain, ZN futures +3/64 at 110, with TNX up to a 0.3 bp loss at 4.416%.

Linda Piazza : 8/9/2005 11:28:38 AM

Advdec line still coiling. See my 9:40 and 10:14 posts. Just benchmarking impressions.

Jeff Bailey : 8/9/2005 11:28:06 AM

Educational if looking to trade futures ... Often times I receive questions from traders regarding "switching" to index futures trading from options trading, but they aren't sure of the RISK in futures and how they move. It is a different game for sure. Here's a screen capture taken last night with a minimal 1 contract (short) of each of the major futures contracts at this Link and here is an intra-day (today) capture Link

Linda Piazza : 8/9/2005 11:24:38 AM

The OEX's 15-minute 100/130-ema's are at 571.99 and 571.41, respectively, with the OEX currently at 572.16 and finding resistance on 15-minute closes at those averages. Still challenging that resistance, though.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/9/2005 11:21:49 AM

QQQQ is up to 22M shares' volume here, just over 1/3 of yesterday's lighter-than-average figure.

Jeff Bailey : 8/9/2005 11:11:11 AM

11:00 Internals found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 8/9/2005 11:09:18 AM

Keltner and 15-minute 100/130-ema's resistance still tentatively holding on the OEX. VIX trying to steady again.

Jeff Bailey : 8/9/2005 11:03:52 AM

11:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 8/9/2005 11:03:31 AM

The negative Macd divergence is stalling on QQQQ, with price pinned to the session highs from a pattern of rising lows- a potential bullish rising triangle below 39.50: Link

Linda Piazza : 8/9/2005 11:01:51 AM

By several chart characteristics, it looks possible to me that the VIX could continue falling, perhaps toward 11.60-11.80. This danger exists until and unless it closes 15-minute periods back above about 12.45-12.50. It's at 12.34 as I type. If it continues falling, Jane's excellent tutelage would lead us to expect higher HOD's or at least a continued testing of the resistance levels being tested. I'm watching all these tests, though, as the markets may not be as amenable as usual today to technical analysis, as there's some positioning ahead of the FOMC announcement.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/9/2005 10:58:17 AM

Volume breadth up to +2.75:1 on the NYSE +2.02:1 on the Nasdaq.

Jeff Bailey : 8/9/2005 10:54:07 AM

Day trader's of Baidu.com (BIDU) $104.75 ... also use your "dynamic" intra-day retracement to identify possible levels (h/l $125.30-$96.35) with 38.2% at $107.41 and 50% $110.83 and 80.9% at $119.77. Note that the 38.2% marks that intra-day pennant, which BIDU broke further lower from.

Linda Piazza : 8/9/2005 10:53:00 AM

Lots of upper spikes on the Dow's 15-minute candles, but it continues testing the 15-minute 100/130-ema's. So does the OEX, although the OEX is finding resistance at its mid-channel levels on the 15-minute through 60-minute charts. The VIX is dropping below those averages.

Tab Gilles : 8/9/2005 10:52:41 AM

Weekly $VXN Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/9/2005 10:48:02 AM

Baidu.com (BIDU) $102.38 -11.65% ... same BLUE fitted 38.2% from day one, but I've taken the PINK retracement higher to yesterday's high. See $118? That's a bounce target. Link

Jonathan Levinson : 8/9/2005 10:46:41 AM

There's a bearish divergence on the short cycle Macd for QQQQ here (bottom indicator pane), but because it's within a broader 30 and 60 min upphases, bears need to see confirmation on a break below 39.34, the site of the rising 72 SMA. Above that level, the benefit of the doubt goes to the bulls. Link

Jonathan Levinson : 8/9/2005 10:42:41 AM

Sept. crude oil is down .35 at 63.60 here, 10 cents above the low and off a high of 64.275.

Jeff Bailey : 8/9/2005 10:40:11 AM

Cisco Systems (CSCO) $19.55 +1.55% ... back above both its 21-day SMA and 50-day SMA. Earnings after today's close with consensus at $0.25.

Linda Piazza : 8/9/2005 10:39:03 AM

Dow trying to push above those 15-minute 100/130-ema's again, having just reached a slightly higher HOD. There's been no 15-minute close above the 100/130-ema's at 10,592.29 and 10,600.91, respectively, but the Dow is currently at 10,601.50. Still testing.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/9/2005 10:36:43 AM

GE is printing a session high at 34.10, +1.01%, testing former support in the 39.08-.14 area.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/9/2005 10:32:52 AM

QQQQ is breaking the previous high, the short cycle indicators stalling their decline. 30 min channel resistance is holding at 39.53: Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/9/2005 10:28:49 AM

Picking up 1/4 bullish in shares of Baidu.com (BIDU) here at $99.00 in personal account.

Linda Piazza : 8/9/2005 10:28:44 AM

The VIX is just not bouncing from those 15-minute 100/130-ema's, and the pullback from them on the SPX, OEX, Dow and BIX were tentative as yet anyway, so this makes them even more tentative. The test of that resistance may continue. On the OEX, that resistance looks strong, but perhaps the OEX might consolidate underneath it as it tries to soften it? That consolidation is a possibility as we know the usual pin-it-somewhere tendencies on FOMC days.

Linda Piazza : 8/9/2005 10:26:07 AM

Go ahead and blame me then, Mark. I can take it.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/9/2005 10:23:44 AM

QQQQ's 72 SMA support is up to 39.30 here, price holding in its narrow range just off the highs. The short cycle indicators are already heading down, but with the short cycle so oversold for so long, bears will need to see confirmation of any weakness with a break below the 72 SMA line. Volume breadth is strong at +1.83:1 on the Nasdaq, but volume is very light, 14.2M QQQQ shares traded so far. Link

Linda Piazza : 8/9/2005 10:23:18 AM

OEX, Dow and some others are beginning to pull back just a little from their tests of their 15-minute 100/130-ema's, but the move is small as yet and it's not corroborated by a VIX bounce from its 15-minute 100/130-ema's, averages it's testing now. The VIX does appear to be trying to steady.

Mark Davis : 8/9/2005 10:22:17 AM

Yeah but now I have somebody else to blame and that's always a better option... lol

Linda Piazza : 8/9/2005 10:21:33 AM

Mark, I'm going to bet you had some reasons of your own for trading then. (See Mark's 10:15 post in reply to my 10:14 post.) Don't I remember a nice chart attached to your 10:05 post? Smile.

Jeff Bailey : 8/9/2005 10:19:47 AM

Google Inc. (GOOG) $290.80 -0.15% Link ... late yesterday the company did say it was being sued over accusations that it overcharged advertisers who use the Web search giant's paid search advertising program, which accounts for the vast majority of the company's revenue.

The proposed class-action suit, filed on August 3 in State Superior Court in Santa Clara, California, accuses Google of charging in excess of advertisers' "daily budgets," under which Google allows an advertiser to limit how much it spends each day.

Mark Davis : 8/9/2005 10:18:52 AM

Dow 10573 is still an important number, and one that needs to be taken out for our short play to get going. Current print is 10591... Link

Linda Piazza : 8/9/2005 10:15:56 AM

The OEX is producing small-bodied 15-minute candles beneath 572-573-ish resistance.

Mark Davis : 8/9/2005 10:15:38 AM

Too late Linda, I already did (grin).

Jeff Bailey : 8/9/2005 10:15:05 AM

Yesterday's Internals found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 8/9/2005 10:14:33 AM

Benchmarking impressions: When I made my 9:40 post, the advdec line was currently at 2,000, and it's now dropped to 1363. Unless it's pulled up quickly, it now looks vulnerable to a deeper decline, perhaps to 990 or between 0 and 232. In my 9:40 post, I noted that the Keltner channels indicated that it was at extreme levels for that particular move and either needed some sideways action or a pullback. This could still be part of a sideways, coiling action. Do not trade on this information.

Jeff Bailey : 8/9/2005 10:13:21 AM

10:00 Internals found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 8/9/2005 10:12:14 AM

OEX, Dow and some other indices still testing the 15-minute 100/130-ema's from the underside. The VIX still tests them, too, but from above.

Linda Piazza : 8/9/2005 10:05:47 AM

VIX now testing the 15-minute 100/130-ema's, dropping down to test it, while some indices are rising to test this same set of averages from the underside. Beautiful the way it works sometimes, isn't it?

Jeff Bailey : 8/9/2005 10:02:53 AM

10:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 8/9/2005 10:02:53 AM

Doji on the Dow's last 15-minute period, but it's still trying to push above the 15-minute 100/130-ema's. No new HOD yet. Bears don't want to see a 15-minute close below those averages (see my 10:01 post for numbers) and bulls don't want to see a pronounced drop that closes below the midpoint of the first 15-minute range.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/9/2005 10:01:39 AM

TNX is back up to 4.408%, -1.1 bps, while QQQQ is up to a new high at 39.43. QQQQ chart at this Link

Linda Piazza : 8/9/2005 10:01:11 AM

The Dow, TRAN, SPX, OEX and BIX are leading some other indices into a test of their 15-minute 100/130-ema's from the underside, with the Dow currently at those averages and leading that whole pack. Those averages are at 10,592.05 and 10,601.01 on 15-minute closes, with the Dow currently at 10,598.88.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/9/2005 10:00:58 AM






Linda Piazza : 8/9/2005 9:58:13 AM

OEX still reaching for the 572-573-ish Keltner mid-channel resistance on many intraday interval charts. The current 15-minute chart may end up being a small-bodied candle, however, expressing some indecision about pushing higher. Still a few minutes to go, however.

Linda Piazza : 8/9/2005 9:56:57 AM

Excellent points to consider, Jonathan. (See his 9:52 post.)

Jonathan Levinson : 8/9/2005 9:56:34 AM

Session high for GE at 34.03, ES at 1232, and QQQQ 1 cent away at 39.40.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/9/2005 9:56:10 AM

Session high for 10-yr notes at 110 1/8, TNX breaking 4.4% at 4.398%, down 2.1 bps.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/9/2005 9:55:10 AM

A 3.5B overnight repo results in a net drain of 3.5B against the 7B expiring.

Linda Piazza : 8/9/2005 9:52:59 AM

When beginning a Traders Corner article last night, I noticed that while the indices had previously bounced from the 15-minute 100/130-ema's, they were often during the recent decline bouncing down from those averages. However, the VIX had begun bouncing from them as it climbed. This morning, the VIX has dropped down to a level just above its 15-minute 100/130-ema's, with those at 12.57 and 12.41, respectively. The VIX is at 12.69 as I type. Watch to see if there's a trend change or a continuation of new higher trend in the VIX.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/9/2005 9:52:27 AM

Have you ever noticed if there's a correlation between repos and fed interest rate decisions? I've wondered if they put more money in the market on these days to keep it from tanking on the news. Thoughts?

Excellent question. The short answer is yes, because open market operations are one of a number of tools affecting liquidity in the markets. On the Fed's update page at this Link , the stop-out rate should generally approximate the overnight target rate. Yesterday's 3.43% rate is close to 3.5%, the expected overnight rate to be announced today. By adding additional repos, the Fed can lower the stop-out rate, as it did in the weeks following the hike to 3.25%. While the Fed talked tough at the last rate hike, I noticed that it was being more generous than usual with its repo adds.

Other tools affecting overall liquidity and thus market bias include Treasury borrowing and foreign central bank demand. I believe that foreign central banks are the biggest "fish in the sea," and without their continued lending (via purchases of treasury debt), rates would be much higher than they currently are.

Jeff Bailey : 8/9/2005 9:52:16 AM

Bullish swing trade stop alert for the Google GOOG Sep. $310 Calls (GGD-IB) at the bid of $4.10.

Linda Piazza : 8/9/2005 9:50:35 AM

The OEX also heads into a test of the 15-minute 100/130-ema's, the averages that were bouncing many indices for a long while and are now serving as resistance for some. Those averages are at 571.98 and 572.44, respectively. The OEX is at 571.47.

Jeff Bailey : 8/9/2005 9:47:51 AM

Program Trading Levels for Tuesday ... HL Camp & Company has their computers set for program buying at $+2.81 and set for program selling at $+0.68.

Linda Piazza : 8/9/2005 9:46:04 AM

So far, the OEX holds its gains into the close of the first 15-minute period, so that it will have closed considerably above the Keltner line currently at 570.59, setting up a possible continued test of 572-573-ish Keltner resistance, as long as it maintains 15-minute closes above that 570.59 line. OEX at 571.50.

Linda Piazza : 8/9/2005 9:40:54 AM

Benchmarking impressions: Once again this morning, the 15-minute Keltner chart suggests that the advdec line is at an extreme level for this move, with that "overbought" status perhaps to be burned off by sideways movement in the advdec line (Perhaps into the 10:00 or even 1:15 announcements?) or by a pullback in a pop-and-drop reaction. Do not trade on this information, especially as extreme can become more extreme.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/9/2005 9:39:42 AM

Oct. gold is down 1.40 at 435.60, with 432-433 next support following the break of 436.

Linda Piazza : 8/9/2005 9:38:43 AM

The OEX looks as if it's headed for a test of the mid-channel level on the 15-minute chart, from 572.32-572.64 on 15-minute closes, and on the 60-minute chart, from 572.22-572.73 on 60-minute closes. OEX at 571.54.

Linda Piazza : 8/9/2005 9:37:39 AM

Yesterday, the SOX broke below the appropriate neckline level for a H&S on its 60-minute chart, but it crept down rather than plunged lower afterwards, and the right shoulder just looked stunted, both time and price-wise, in relationship to the left shoulder. With those observations, I was expressing some concern yesterday that the right-shoulder building exercise was yet completed. The SOX is back above that 468-ish neckline during this first push this morning. Not sure if it will stay above it, but a sustained push above 478-480 would be needed to invalidate that formation. The 60-minute Keltner chart suggests that 469.01 could provide resistance on 60-minute closes, so it remains possible that the neckline break could hold, too. Some uncertainty here in early trading, with the SOX currently at 469.62.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/9/2005 9:37:11 AM

Session high for GE, +.22 at 33.98.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/9/2005 9:35:53 AM

Don't forget Wholesale Inventories at 10AM, est. 4%, as well as the Fed's disposition of its expiring 7B overnight repo.

Linda Piazza : 8/9/2005 9:33:07 AM

SOX, RUT, RLX and TRAN all gaining this morning, too.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/9/2005 9:32:43 AM

QQQQ is holding just south of the pivot at 39.37, but well above rising 72 SMA support at 39.23, a short cycle upphase in progress. Link

Linda Piazza : 8/9/2005 9:32:22 AM

An OEX push straight up to the 15-minute Keltner resistance at 570.51, with this line mostly holding back advances since Thursday morning, with a brief blip above it yesterday. The OEX is at 570.76 as I type, above the line, but not having completed a 15-minute close above it.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/9/2005 9:31:24 AM

Volume breadth at the open is +4.24:1 on the NYSE and +2.47:1 on the Nasdaq.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/9/2005 9:07:49 AM



Linda Piazza : 8/9/2005 8:55:11 AM

Going into Monday, I thought it likely that the OEX might begin a consolidation pattern, either from 569-574 or from 565-569. The OEX didn't begin that consolidation yet, but rather stair-stepped lower into the 2-hour and daily Keltner support, with important two-hour Keltner support at 568.62. The OEX ended the day at 568.77, and a break much below that would suggest that it's going to head down and test the 200-sma, now at 564.83, following the BIX's lead as it fell through its broadening formation.

On intraday charts, too, the OEX verges on creating a new breakdown signal. On 15- through 60-minute charts, it's clinging to Keltner support lines that would produce new downside signals if breached on closes but that could still prompt bounces. Other than guessing, there's not a strong clue as to next direction this morning, ahead of this afternoon's FOMC decision and statement, with the statement arguably the most important of the two. So, for those already in bearish positions, understand that the OEX teeters on a potential bounce/breakdown level. Keltner evidence suggests that you want to see continued 15-minute closes beneath a Keltner line currently at 570.54, but preferably below one currently at 569.17. You'd also like to see a new breakdown, on a 15-minute close below a line currently at 568.73. On 15- and 60-minute closes above 572.34 and 572.82, respectively, there's a chance that the OEX will bounce up toward 576-577.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/9/2005 8:46:59 AM

Ten year notes have increased their loss to 1.9 bps at 4.40%.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/9/2005 8:42:16 AM

QQQQ is holding its highs, reversing all the losses since noon yesterday and retesting the 39.40-.45 confluence that held back the bounce after yesterday's 11AM low. A break above this level will kick off 30 and 60 min cycle upphases. Bears need to see the price back below 39.27 to stall the channel turns.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/9/2005 8:31:32 AM

Session highs for equities, QQQQ to 39.38, ES to 1230.75, ditto ZN treasuries, +3/32 to 110 3/64, TNX -.7 bps to 4.412%.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/9/2005 8:30:45 AM






Jonathan Levinson : 8/9/2005 8:27:16 AM

Session low for Sept. crude oil at 63.625.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/9/2005 8:24:38 AM

EDWARDS AIR FORCE BASE, Calif. (Reuters) - The space shuttle Discovery and its seven astronauts returned to Earth safely on Tuesday, bringing a successful end to NASA's troubled return to human space flight 2 1/2 years after the Columbia disaster.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/9/2005 8:22:13 AM

Treasury notes have edged a tick lower, ten year note yields opening unchanged at 4.419%. QQQQQ is up 14 cents at a session high of 39.33 ahead of the GDP release.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/9/2005 8:13:46 AM

LONDON (MarketWatch) -- Governor Zhou Xiaochuan of China's central bank said in a statement that the yuan revaluation should help boost derivatives and foreign exchange market development, and that Chinese banks need to formulate strategies to manage risks "instead of transferring various risks to the government as they did under the fixed exchange regime." Zhou also called on banks to enhance their pricing capability and financial product innovation. He reiterated that the yuan revaluation was not "an initial move to be followed by further adjustments" and said infomration about the basket of currencies the yuan will be pegged to will be provided "to professional market participants in a gradual way."

Jonathan Levinson : 8/9/2005 7:38:49 AM

Equities are up, ES trading 1229, NQ 1600.50, YM 10572 and QQQQ +.11 at 39.30. Gold is down 1.1 to a session low of 435.90, silver -.011 to 7.003, ten year notes flat at 109 61/64 and crude oil down 20 cents to 63.75.

We await the 8:30 release of Q2 productivity, est. +2%, then at 10AM Wholesale inventories, est. +.4%, and at 2:15PM, the FOMC announcement.

Linda Piazza : 8/9/2005 7:00:40 AM

Good morning. Despite the potential for political upheaval, the Nikkei roared higher Tuesday, although it couldn't top last week's high. Other Asian markets were mixed. European markets trade in a tight range just above the flat-line level. Our futures are positive. As of 6:45 EST, gold was down $0.30, and crude, down $0.19 to $63.75. During the overnight session, crude for September delivery hit a high of $64.27. More detail about Asian and European markets follows in succeeding paragraphs.

An index trader on the Nikkei might have had a difficult few trading days. The Nikkei zoomed up to an intraday high of 12,009.56 on August 3, down to an intraday low of 11,614.71 yesterday, and then back up to retrace most of the recent loss last night, all this amid political uncertainty and new record crude costs and in anticipation of today's conclusion of the two-day Bank of Japan meeting. Energy-related issues led the indices higher during earliest trading. A newspaper's speculation that Nippon Mining Holding's earnings report could show a doubling in profit in the first half also sent that company and some other miners higher in early trading. Nikon also helped improve sentiment when it raised its full-year profit forecast and reported earnings that cheered investors.

As expected, the Bank of Japan was to keep its monetary policy unchanged, with the central bank commenting that rising exports and depleting inventories are signs that the economy is recovering, although those depleting inventories may have capped production. Other signs include a pickup in wages. The economy was responding better to risks. The Japanese government was to upgrade its economic assessment for August, to one of an economy recovering at a moderate pace with consumption and imports gradually rising, but it retained its 1.6% real growth estimate for 2005. The June Machinery Orders number beat expectations with a rise of 11.1% month over month against expectations for a 6-7% increase. As a result, the Cabinet Office upgraded its assessment on this component of economic recovery, and the Nikkei also leaped back above 11,900. It wasn't to be able to top its recent high, however, but did close 121.34 points or 1.03% higher, at 11,900.32.

Other Asian markets were mixed. The Taiwan Weighted lost 0.03%, but South Korea's Kospi gained 1.21%. Singapore's Straits Times was closed for a national holiday. Hong Kong's Hang Seng declined 0.40%, but China's Shanghai Composite rose 1.20%. After the close of the markets, Chinese central bank Governor Zhou Xiaochuan denied that the yuan revaluation was only a first move in a series of steps, and also urged banks to better manage risks rather than transfer them to the government.

European markets are positive, but mostly treading water in lightly positive levels. Today, Germany's Trade Surplus was reported, showing a widening in June, with exports falling 0.5% from May's record jump, and imports falling 5.5%, also after a strong May number. Exports are not expected to contribute to the second quarter's GDP. Foreign engineering orders jumped. In a separate number, Germany's June WPI rose 0.5% month over month and 2.5% year over year, both higher than May's figure. France's Budget Deficit rose over the year-ago level, of concern in an environment of slowing growth and revenue creation. In the U.K., the June Trade Deficit narrowed more than expected with the non-EU deficit also beating expectations.

Resource stocks, particularly oil majors, are credited with keeping European bourses positive. Drugmaker Elan soared almost 30% at one point after it and Biogen Idec announced that their further study of their Tysabri for patients with multiple sclerosis did not locate any more confirmed cases of PML, progressive multifocal leukoencephalopathy. This fall, the companies will resubmit plans to restart clinical trials. Other manufacturers of MS drugs slipped lower, however. German stock exchange operator Deutsche Boerse said it would likely exceed its 2005 EBITA target by at least 5%, and it gained in early trading. Telecommunications operator KPN climbed although profit dropped 40%, with investors perhaps concentrating instead on a higher-than-expected increase in revenue and a revised-lower expected drop in 2005's EBITDA. Swiss bank UBS did not help sentiment, however, as it dropped after reporting and slightly missing estimates. Suez and Electrabel were both suspended from trading as they invited the press to a conference to discussed Suez's bid for Electrabel.

As of 6:45 EST, the FTSE 100 was higher by 8.10 points or 0.15%, at 5,352.40. The CAC 40 was up by 7.97 points or 0.18%, at 4,448.98. The DAX was higher by 6.56 points or 0.14%, at 4,844.42.

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