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OI Technical Staff : 8/12/2005 9:59:59 PM

The Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

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Jeff Bailey : 8/12/2005 7:42:27 PM

Last three weekly Pivot Matrix found at this Link ... now the BIX.X came pretty close this week (within 0.01 point) of trading my WEEKLY S1, but today, the BIX.X did trade the QCharts' WEEKLY S1 of 352.98.

The BIX.X will continue to be a focus, where the bull/bear case has been stated. Lower YIELD vs. a tightening Fed can pressure margins (bear case), while the MARKET, which some believe "knows all" may feel that the recent reversal in YIELDS will still find the individual consumer, and corporations still generating brisk loan demand.

As Linda likes to point out, keep an eye on those retailers (RLX.X), as the MARKET can also signal what it thinks of the consumer.

Jeff Bailey : 8/12/2005 7:29:01 PM

Pivot Matrix for next week at this Link ... Note: BIX.X's WEEKLY R1, where the BIX.X has not traded a WEEKLY R1 since the week of 7/11-7/15. .... Hold on, I'm not through ....

Jeff Bailey : 8/12/2005 6:12:06 PM

Closing U.S. Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/12/2005 4:56:28 PM

Closing Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/12/2005 4:36:01 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles found at this Link ... Today's Activity ... Day traded long shares of Baidu.com (BIDU) at the offer of $98.00, but was stopped out at $97.00 ($-1.00, or -1.02%)

Jeff Bailey : 8/12/2005 4:07:02 PM

Bullish call cancel order alert ... for the two (2) Red Robin Gourmet Burgers RRGB Mar. $55 Calls (QZR-CK). Let's see what happens early next week on this one.

Linda Piazza : 8/12/2005 4:01:47 PM

The OEX did end the day still inside that same old Keltner channel, but in the bottom half of the day's range, and just above 570.

Jeff Bailey : 8/12/2005 4:01:10 PM

Sell Program Premium ... DIA $106.12, SPY $123.14

Linda Piazza : 8/12/2005 3:51:32 PM

Stop run on that bounce? That's a possibility. Bears, especially those in August puts, you need to make a decision as to whether you'll hold over the weekend or not. Many indices teeter on the edge of bigger drops, but they just didn't drop over those edges today. The OEX has given no indication of final direction, staying within that same old Keltner channel. Unless something drastic happens in the last nine minutes of trading, that's likely where it will end the day, too, so you're just having to guess as to direction next week.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/12/2005 3:46:12 PM

This little flag off the high could be the bullflag handle to a cup and handle, but the upside 30 min keltner breach is a warning sign for bulls. Below 39.15, it's back to today's sideways chopzone. Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/12/2005 3:41:25 PM

Google Inc. (GOOG) 289.20 +1.84% ... session high, but right in that "zone" from 287.75-289.55.

Linda Piazza : 8/12/2005 3:40:40 PM

The OEX climbed all the way back to the mid-channel level on the 15-minute Keltner channels chart, but is finding short-term resistance there. At 573.45 is the descending trendline off the 8/10 high, with the top of that same old Keltner channel at 573.75. Bears do not want to see the OEX burst through the top of that triangle formation after breaking through the bottom this morning and then zooming back inside it this afternoon. Hope some of you took at least partial profits earlier near the low of the day and have your plans in place for the rest. We're about to get market-on-close orders working in the markets, and direction may change again, but protect your profits.

Jeff Bailey : 8/12/2005 3:35:44 PM

That buy program premium was a "dinger" to 4.67 too.

Jeff Bailey : 8/12/2005 3:33:34 PM

Pivot Matrix alert ... just noticing ... 10-year YIELD did break below its WEEKLY S2, meanwhile, QQQQ trades its WEEKLY S2, but bouncing a bit.

Jeff Bailey : 8/12/2005 3:31:24 PM

KBW Bank Index (BKX.X) alert 99.25 +0.06% ... more money center banks edging above yesterday's high.

Jeff Bailey : 8/12/2005 3:43:43 PM

Linda alert! ... You're my candle stick expert. Any input as to that "doji" looking bar from Wednesday? Link

Jonathan Levinson : 8/12/2005 3:28:56 PM

Session high for QQQQ at 39.21, -.222 from yesterday's pre-Dell close. QQQQ testing confluence to 39.22, following which 39.30-.35 is the next congestion zone: Link . Volume breadth is -2.51:1 for the Nasdaq here.

Linda Piazza : 8/12/2005 3:24:34 PM

Benchmarking impressions: the advdec line is erasing its breakdown signal. Bears need to quickly take control again, or else there's the possibility of a stronger rise, toward -1441.50 or perhaps even to -511.50. QCharts version of advdec line now at -2013.

Linda Piazza : 8/12/2005 3:22:55 PM

OEX now at that ascending trendline off Monday's low, testing it from the underside. Bears want this to hold, but at 571.40, the OEX is already pushing a little above it.

Jeff Bailey : 8/12/2005 3:23:03 PM

Go get'm Marc! You may well be onto something.

Jeff Bailey : 8/12/2005 3:22:22 PM

Buy Program Premium ... DIA $106.23, SPX 1,230.60, QQQQ $39.16

Jeff Bailey : 8/12/2005 3:21:14 PM

Home Depot (HD) $41.25 -0.60% ...

Jeff Bailey : 8/12/2005 3:20:50 PM

Wal Mart (WMT) $48.75 -0.40% ...

Jeff Bailey : 8/12/2005 3:18:11 PM

S&P Retail Index (RLX.X) alert! 468.01 (unch) .... see 10:46:23 thought regarding sector/economy and 10-year YIELD.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/12/2005 3:15:46 PM

Headline:

[$TNX] 10-YEAR TREASURY CLOSES +20/32 AT 100 4/32, 4.24% YIELD

Jeff Bailey : 8/12/2005 3:15:11 PM

03:00 Internals found at this Link ... I will have to admit, some sign of internal recover from a/d lines after 10-year yield ($TNX.X) fell below Marc Eckelberry's key 4.25% level.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/12/2005 3:07:38 PM

The short cycle indicators seem to be rolling over here, below overbought territory. This is all just noise, and on low volume, but the lack of a stronger bounce seems out of recent character for the Qs. Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/12/2005 3:03:48 PM

03:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/12/2005 3:04:18 PM

Overstock.com (OSTK) $47.70 +8.93% ... according to July 15 NASDAQ report, short interest stood at 6.53 million shares, where average daily volume of 476,896 had days to cover at 13.69.

Linda Piazza : 8/12/2005 3:00:29 PM

So far, the OEX is still finding resistance at the former supporting trendlines off this week's low, but bears would have much rather that the OEX had broken down and created a new downside target. As the last hour approaches, those in bearish positions and particularly those in August puts, need to decide what they want to do about those positions. Whatever action plan you put into place for a test of the lower boundary of the Keltner channel today needs to be followed. I hope some took that partial profit I suggested, but decide what you're doing about the rest. I still think it at least possible that the OEX will follow the BIX's example and fall through its broadening formation at least low enough to test its 200-sma, but who knows what path it's going to take before doing so, because the truth is that the OEX still mostly adheres to the boundary of that same old Keltner channel that's been containing it for a long while. I think there's a chance, but not a promise, that the OEX could retest that lower channel boundary this afternoon, but I don't even have a percentage guess as to how likely that might be.

Jeff Bailey : 8/12/2005 2:54:21 PM

OverStock.com (OSTK) $47.38 +8.29% Link ... Recent interview on CNBC regarding "counterfeit shares" being shorted. I have been hearing some rumors of this, but I can't figure it out. If true and brokers have artificially lent stock out and they call the stock back in "force short to cover," a massive squeeze could be found.

Most actives in OSTK options ... Aug $45C (1,764:4,703), Sep $50C (1,237:4,045), Sep $45C (1,218:2,285), Aug $45P (1,140:887)

Jonathan Levinson : 8/12/2005 2:39:26 PM

Session low for GE here at 34.26, volume breadth -2.89:1 on both the NYSE and Nasdaq. This is a very strange day, with breadth so negative and price so firm at the lows all day on the Nasdaq. It feels like a bullish divergence- either that or a great distribution job. The range will decide, key support at 38.90-.95 and resistance at 39.25-.30. Link

Linda Piazza : 8/12/2005 2:34:20 PM

OEX still testing those former supporting trendlines from earlier in the week. Nothing too bullish going on yet, but watching how it reacts to those trendlines.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/12/2005 2:32:25 PM

Sept. crude oil closed +1.05 at 66.85, off a high of 67.125.

Linda Piazza : 8/12/2005 2:24:39 PM

Bears couldn't drive several indices below Keltner support, and so they're rising to test resistance. On the OEX, there's a rise up to retest the rising trendline off Wednesday's and then Monday's lows, with those trendlines at 570.75 and 571.34, respectively. OEX at 570.45.

Jeff Bailey : 8/12/2005 2:23:13 PM

10-year yield alert! 42.50, or 4.25% ... if it is true that the market topped when YIELD moved above 4.25%, will it be true that the markets bottom on the reversal of this benchmark yield?

Jonathan Levinson : 8/12/2005 2:21:36 PM

QQQQ breaks rising trendline reistance at 39.12 here: Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/12/2005 2:16:16 PM

10-year YIELD ($TNX.X) 4.254% ... did trade 4.252% in recent seconds.

Linda Piazza : 8/12/2005 2:15:43 PM

First OEX Keltner resistance holds again on that just-concluded 15-minute period.

Jeff Bailey : 8/12/2005 2:14:38 PM

Bullish day trade stop alert for Baidu.com (BIDU) $97.00

Jeff Bailey : 8/12/2005 2:11:57 PM

02:00 Internals found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 8/12/2005 2:08:14 PM

Once again, the OEX has risen to test first Keltner resistance, currently at 569.98, with the OEX at 570.01 as I type, but with 10 minute left in the current period. The OEX could rise to retest two short-term rising trendlines, one at 570.83 and another at about 571.50, if it gets past this resistance on a 15-minute close. As long as this resistance holds, the OEX might keep following that trendling-lower supporting trendline down, but bears really want that support to break.

Note: OEX making a stronger push as I type.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/12/2005 2:08:06 PM

Crude oil +.975 at 66.775, 35 cents off the high.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/12/2005 2:05:12 PM

Headline:

U.S. TO LOWER THREAT LEVEL FOR MASS TRANSIT TO 'ELEVATED'

U.S. TO LOWER MASS TRANSIT THREAT LEVEL ON FRIDAY NIGHT

Jonathan Levinson : 8/12/2005 2:04:58 PM

QQQQ has dropped back to the lows, invalidating the small reverse h&s. It now looks like an expanding wedge intraday, but frankly, the range is so flat that by staring at it long enough, it can look like almost anything. Bulls need to regain 39.22, below which the intraday bias is down. Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/12/2005 2:02:10 PM

02:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 8/12/2005 2:00:11 PM

I'm not in an OEX bearish play today, as I've got other positions I'm watching, but I have been watching an August 570 put just to see what values look like. That put has not changed much in value over the last hour, so those in bearish OEX plays have had plenty of time to consider their profit-protecting plans since I warned earlier that it was time to consider taking partial profits, at least, and lower the stops on the rest of bearish positions. Then and now, no new downside target had/has been set, with the OEX always verging on setting that target. Until it closes a 15-minute period below the Keltner line currently at 569.28, however, it won't have reset a new downside target and there's more risk of it trying to retest resistance. Bears would like to see that close and then a quick drop to the new 566.76 target.

Jeff Bailey : 8/12/2005 1:53:02 PM

Google (GOOG) $285.35 +0.45% ... has made a decent move above its DAILY Pivot ($283.74) in last 30-minutes.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/12/2005 1:51:57 PM

Session low for GE here -.21 at 34.30.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/12/2005 1:51:06 PM

Session high for 10 year notes at 111, TNX -7.1 bps at 4.263%.

Linda Piazza : 8/12/2005 1:43:15 PM

TRAN, Wilshire 5000, Dow, SPX all looking about the same, Keltner-wise. They're all staying just above a channel line that's now at 569.33 on the OEX, on 15-minute closes, but none are able to rise too far above that line, either, always finding resistance so far on the first Keltner resistance encountered when they attempt a bounce. The analogous Keltner line on the Dow is at 10,566.82 and on the SPX, at 1226.08.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/12/2005 1:37:58 PM

Stepping away for 10 minutes here.

Jeff Bailey : 8/12/2005 1:37:51 PM

Apple Computer (AAPL) $45.01 +2.31% ... gets active.

Jeff Bailey : 8/12/2005 1:35:45 PM

Baidu.com (BIDU) $98.25 +0.35% ... did just kiss that "dynamic" (pink) 80.9% retracement. Day trader's chart at this Link

Linda Piazza : 8/12/2005 1:34:21 PM

So far, first Keltner resistance holding for the OEX, with that at 570.16 and the OEX currently at 569.59.

Linda Piazza : 8/12/2005 1:31:25 PM

Stop-running time of day approaching, so beware.

Jeff Bailey : 8/12/2005 1:26:30 PM

Baidu.com (BIDU) $98.42 +0.57% ... disclosure: I held bullish position prior to today's day trade long profile alert.

Linda Piazza : 8/12/2005 1:24:12 PM

The OEX may be coming up for a retest of the Keltner resistance at 570.25 or perhaps of the former supporting trendline off the Wednesday low, with that trendline at about 570.75. A best-fit version of the rising trendline off Monday's low is at about 571.20, and bears would like to see the OEX maintaining 15-minute closes beneath that trendline. OEX at 569.89 as I type.

Jeff Bailey : 8/12/2005 1:23:12 PM

Bullish day trade long alert for Baidu.com (BIDU) $98.00 here, stop $97, target $102.

Linda Piazza : 8/12/2005 1:21:53 PM

SOX attempting a breakout above the Keltner line currently at 461.08, with that line having pressured the SOX lower by holding as resistance on 15-minute closes so far. The SOX is at 461.19 as I type. Next resistance a bit scattered, but at 462.70, 464.82 and then 468.99. Still 9 minutes to go in this 15-minute period, however.

Jeff Bailey : 8/12/2005 1:20:17 PM

SPY Option Chain found at this Link ... VIX.X just above Friday's close ... TNX.X 4.266% and nearing WEEKLY S2.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/12/2005 1:19:54 PM

QQQQ tests the previous high, bouncing from a higher low- which looks like a small reverse h&s intraday, nested within that broader 20-day long h&s. If so, the implied target on this move is 39.16. Link

Linda Piazza : 8/12/2005 1:15:31 PM

The SOX approaches lows from 7/14-7/20, a consolidation zone that it built back in July, with those lows in the 458.25-459.75 range, but with most near 458.25-458.60. I would imagine that the bottom of that former support zone also plays a part in the SOX's attempt to steady over the last couple of hours. If that doesn't hold, the 240-minute 100/130-ema's look like next strong support, at 452.71-447.32, with these being near a daily Keltner target, too. So, the SOX approaches a do-or-die level.

Jeff Bailey : 8/12/2005 1:10:59 PM

01:00 Internals found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 8/12/2005 1:12:06 PM

Is this a head and shoulders on the 30 min NQ/QQQQ? Link Link If so, then a break below the 38.95 area would target the 37.75 area, provided that any bounce holds below the 39.60-.70 right shoulder area.

Linda Piazza : 8/12/2005 1:02:56 PM

The RLX is approaching/testing Monday's low of 463.93, with the LX at 464.55 but having a LOD at 464.21. OEX bears would like to see Monday's low breached on the RLX, confirming a dropout of its long-term ascending regression channel.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/12/2005 1:02:36 PM

Looks like the trading 'bots have switched to "H-O scale," with a dramatic 4 cent breakout just now above 39.00 now printing a 1 cent-wide bull flag below 39.06. Volume has yet to reach halfway to yesterday's 93.6M QQQQ shares.

Jeff Bailey : 8/12/2005 1:02:18 PM

01:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 8/12/2005 12:59:56 PM

Failing a sharp fall in the next minute, the OEX once again resists setting a new downside target, but it does continue to find resistance at the first Keltner resistance now at 570.57.

Jane Fox : 8/12/2005 12:59:18 PM

Dateline WSJ The number of homes available for sale has increased sharply in some of the nation's hottest real-estate markets -- one of several recent signs suggesting that air may be seeping out of the frenzied U.S. housing market.

Home prices have surged an average of about 50% in the U.S. in the last five years, largely thanks to the lowest mortgage interest rates in more than four decades and what has been a shortage of available homes in many markets. But some economists and housing-industry analysts believe supply is catching up with demand -- a trend that could cause home-price appreciation to slow down in the months ahead.

In San Diego County, for instance, where the median home price has more than doubled in the last five years, the number of homes listed for sale totaled 12,149 on July 8, more than twice the 5,995 available a year earlier, according to the San Diego Association of Realtors.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/12/2005 12:51:40 PM

The NYSE has overtaken the Nasdaq, volume breadth now -4.12:1 on the NYSE, -3.82:1 on the Nasdaq.

Jeff Bailey : 8/12/2005 12:51:24 PM

Sell Program Premium ... DIA 105.83, SPX 1,226.02, QQQQ $39.00

Jeff Bailey : 8/12/2005 12:53:05 PM

10 Most Active ... DELL $36.50 -7.75%, QQQQ $39.01 -1.09%, CSCO $17.79 -1.49%, INTC $26.25 -2.16%, NT $3.35 +6.34%, SPY 122.84 -0.79%, MSFT $26.99 -1.02%, SUNW $3.83 +1.32%, LU $2.94 +0.34%, IWM $65.17 -1.73%

Linda Piazza : 8/12/2005 12:49:39 PM

Lots of declines today, but on a Keltner basis, these things are just not breaking down the way I'd like to see them do for the behalf of those in bearish plays. The OEX has not produced a 15-minute close below the Keltner line currently at 569.54, creating a new downside target of 566.85, but it has broken below the ascending trendline off Wednesday's low and is so far finding resistance on a Keltner line currently at 570.60.

Linda Piazza : 8/12/2005 12:44:13 PM

SOX finding resistance on 15-minute closes at a Keltner line currently at 461.50. As long as that continues, further tests of support, now at 459.05 might continue.

Jane Fox : 8/12/2005 12:42:55 PM

Dateline CNN British Airways says all striking Heathrow Airport workers returning to work.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/12/2005 12:39:54 PM

Headline:

[BAB, UK:BAY] BRITISH AIRWAYS TO RESUME SOME FLIGHTS AT 8 PM LONDON TIME

[BAB, UK:BAY] BRITISH AIRWAYS CALLS SITUATION 'UNPRECEDENTED'

[BAB, UK:BAY] BRITISH AIRWAYS: ONLY CONFIRMED PASSENGERS TO FLY FRIDAY

Jonathan Levinson : 8/12/2005 12:33:54 PM

Forgetting esoteric ruminations about current account deficits and their relationship to oil for a moment, perhaps if sufficient production and labor had been outsourced by US companies to parts of the world that aren't as heavily oil dependent, then 67 or even 97 oil wouldn't matter. But it sure is strange to see the markets shrugging off day after day of big gains in the prices of crude, natgas and gasoline.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/12/2005 12:27:18 PM

Crude oil +1.225 at 67.025, a dime off the new record high.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/12/2005 12:25:19 PM

The 30 and 60 min cycle oscillators are oversold for QQQQ, no sign of an upturn yet, but 72 SMA resistance is down to 39.04, above which it should begin to tick up. Bulls need a break above the previous high, 39.18-.22 confluence. Link

Linda Piazza : 8/12/2005 12:22:55 PM

Okay, OEX bears. My suggestion for this level earlier was that you take at least partial profits and then ratchet down those stops on the rest of your position, and that's still what I would suggest. No new breakdown yet, but you'd like to see a 15-minute close beneath the Keltner line currently at 569.71. Until then (and, sadly, even after), there's danger of a bounce up through that same old Keltner channel again. Bulls, history would suggest that this is a good place to attempt a long, but I just can't suggest it today. I've been wrong about this before, and I am truly worried that the advdec line is too extreme, but my bias is just getting in the way of suggesting a long play here no matter what history tells us lately.

Tab Gilles : 8/12/2005 12:18:41 PM

Oil is up $1 to $66.80, yet most energy stocks are down. Link

Jonathan Levinson : 8/12/2005 12:15:38 PM

Ten year note yields -6.3 bps at 4.271%, crude oil +.925 at 66.725. QQQQ has yet to break 39 support, but 30 min channel support has edged down to 38.95, with 60 min support just below at 38.92. Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/12/2005 12:13:46 PM

12:00 Internals found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 8/12/2005 12:12:11 PM

RUT dipped below Wednesday's low, but has bounced back to test that 656.29 level, with the RUT at 656.17. These punches lower are dangerous times for both bulls and bears. They're tests to see if the dip will be bought or further sold. If it's bought and can build momentum, then big market participants know it's safe to enter the waters again on the buy side, but if it's not bought or if the bounce fails quickly, then they know something else and down markets tumble.

Linda Piazza : 8/12/2005 12:09:38 PM

SOX punched a few cents below 460, but immediately bounced. Not far yet. At 460.65 as I type. Downside target on the 15-minute Keltner chart at 459.32 currently, with the SOX looking vulnerable to sub-460 levels on the daily chart.

Linda Piazza : 8/12/2005 12:07:27 PM

Benchmarking impressions: the advdec line didn't rise far enough to relieve enough "oversold" pressure to satisfy me before keeling over again, but that may just be a sign that it's going to do a breakdown thing and trend in breakdown levels all day. I haven't seen it do that much, although it did do an upside breakout for several hours Wednesday morning. Bears need to be aware that after that several-hour upside breakout Wednesday morning, the advdec line reversed course and fell, bringing equities lower, too, and that this time, it could reverse course and climb, bouncing equities. Hasn't happened yet, and a continued breakdown status may be possible for longer than I've yet seen it happen since I haven't been watching the advdec line on the Keltner charts all that long.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/12/2005 12:07:07 PM

Stepping away for 5 mins.

Jeff Bailey : 8/12/2005 12:02:40 PM

12:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 8/12/2005 11:55:38 AM

Volume breadth -3.41:1 on the NYSE, -3.57:1 on the Nasdaq, TRIN and TRINQ in neutral-bear territory at 1.39 and 1.15 respectively.

Jeff Bailey : 8/12/2005 12:00:26 PM

Pacholder High Yield (PHF) $9.78 +0.51% Link ... the "hunger for yield" and willingness to take on risk still holding.

Jeff Bailey : 8/12/2005 11:51:51 AM

S&P Banks (BIX.X) 353.93 -0.45% ... session lows here. I'm not yet seeing any confirmation to the thought that lower yield bullish for equities.

Linda Piazza : 8/12/2005 11:50:40 AM

SOX breaking down from its short bear-flag climb this morning, but hasn't confirmed by a new LOD. Downside target of 459.54 now being reset.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/12/2005 11:48:35 AM

Session high for crude oil at 66.90 now, +1.10.

Linda Piazza : 8/12/2005 11:45:54 AM

The SOX, too, is caught between its 120-minute 100/130-ema's, with those at 464.92 and 460.87, and with the SOX at 462.29 as I type. I've been watching the SOX stair-step down through its various 100/130-ema's, first finding S/R at the 15-minute, then early in the week at the 30-minute, then down to these 120-minute versions. For the SOX and many other indices, it's the violation of the 240-minute versions, now at 452.74 and 447.34, that would be the most meaningful, but bears should remain aware of possible strong support at that level.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/12/2005 11:45:32 AM

New lows for YM and ES futures, QQQQ holding steady at 39.10. Volume breadth is very weak, but so's overall volume. Meanwhile, the short cycle upphase has stalled and is reversing off the 39.17 test, but bears need a break of the low of the day to turn the 30 min channel decisively lower: Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/12/2005 11:45:06 AM

Red Robin Gourmet (RRGB) $46.12 -22.86% ... March $55 Calls (QZR-CK) $1.80 x $2.40 with last at $2.50.

Linda Piazza : 8/12/2005 11:38:27 AM

The RLX is zooming around a bit more than some other indices, but still within a recent range. It's back slightly above the swing highs from last fall and this spring, but between the 120-minute 100/130-ema's, with those averages from 470.02 and 467.15. The RLX is at 467.40 as I type.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/12/2005 11:35:28 AM

Headlines:

SEPT GASOLINE UP 2.6% AT $2/GAL

GASOLINE FUTURES TAP $2/GAL FOR THE FIRST TIME EVER

Linda Piazza : 8/12/2005 11:30:55 AM

Mid-channel resistance did hold for the OEX and it just posted a minimal new LOD. Bears, have those profit-protecting plans in place for a test of 570.60 (rising trendline off Wednesday's low) or 570.01, the Keltner channel line that's been mostly supporting the OEX.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/12/2005 11:30:34 AM

Session high for ten year notes at 110 29/32 again, TNX -5.5 bps at 4.279%.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/12/2005 11:29:26 AM

Session high for GE here, +.04 at 34.55, crude oil +.60 at 66.60, .025 off the session high.

Linda Piazza : 8/12/2005 11:28:52 AM

SOX's climb off the day's low still looks like a bear flag so far.

Jeff Bailey : 8/12/2005 11:27:45 AM

Treasury YIELD alert for U.S. Market Watch ... my intra-day charts are once again very "funky" and I'm not getting what would look to be updated data. If trading off of yield action, please take note!

Tab Gilles : 8/12/2005 11:27:38 AM

$SPX Link

$COMPQ Link

Jonathan Levinson : 8/12/2005 11:24:12 AM

If this is a bullish reverse h&s below 39.17 gap resistance, the implied target is 16 cents above it, just below yesterday's close and just below what would constitute a gap fill. Volume is very low, and breadth hasn't notably improved, still -2.18:1 on the NYSE and -3.19:1 on the Nasdaq. Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/12/2005 11:24:08 AM

Current OPEN MM Profiles found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/12/2005 11:16:24 AM

Yesterday's Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/12/2005 11:15:16 AM

11:00 Internals found at this Link

Tab Gilles : 8/12/2005 11:13:58 AM

Time Warner(TWX) Link

Linda Piazza : 8/12/2005 11:13:41 AM

SOX attempting a breakout back above the Keltner line that set its downside target. That line is at 462.34 on 15-minute closes, with the SOX at 462.58 as I type, but with a couple of minute left in the 15-minute period. Next Keltner resistance at 463.40 is somewhat important, but the most important all day yesterday was the resistance currently at 466.77. All this is on 15-minute closes.

Linda Piazza : 8/12/2005 11:07:40 AM

Benchmarking impressions: I thought earlier that the advdec line hadn't really worked off "oversold" conditions by its sideways movement because RSI wasn't moving higher. Now both are, with the advdec line testing next Keltner resistance at -2311.52 (QCharts version) and with next resistance at -1656.52 to -1000. Bears would like to see the advdec line's retracement stopped there if not lower.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/12/2005 11:04:26 AM

Volume breadth -1.81:1 on the NYSE, -3.12:1 on the Nasdaq.

Tab Gilles : 8/12/2005 11:02:40 AM

Alcoa (AA) Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/12/2005 11:02:33 AM

11:00 Watch found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 8/12/2005 11:02:31 AM

QQQQ has broken above the 72 SMA resistance line for the first time today, now testing gap resistance. If it breaks through, the 30 min channel top at the 39.23 pivot is next.

Linda Piazza : 8/12/2005 11:01:55 AM

The RUT is also consolidating at the bottom of a steep drop, so that the next break could be expected to be to the downside, but the Keltner channels suggest some Keltner-style bullish divergence at a Keltner line that's been support for a while, so that a flag-ish bounce attempt should probably at least be expected, if not more.

Linda Piazza : 8/12/2005 10:58:23 AM

OEX is indeed narrowing its range today, at least so far. The current pattern could be a "b" distribution pattern from this morning's decline, but that's a pattern forming right within a narrowing consolidation zone, so I don't think we can put a lot of faith into an interpretation of any pattern inside that zone.

Linda Piazza : 8/12/2005 10:56:22 AM

SOX 460-ish downside Keltner target still valid, but the SOX isn't in a rush to dip quite that far just yet, perhaps because of that Fib level that Tab just mentioned in his 10:51 post. The target remains valid as long as the SOX produces 15-minute closes beneath a Keltner line currently at 462.50. On the daily chart, the SOX looks vulnerable to 454.83-457.72 as long as it's producing daily closes beneath 469.67.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/12/2005 10:56:05 AM

72 SMA resistance is down to 39.13 QQQQ, above which the stalled 30 min channel should begin to uptick. The short cycle upphase has been mostly sideways, and breadth has been very weak, but volume is quite low as well with only 21.6M QQQQs traded so far today. Gap resistance starts at 39.17. Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/12/2005 10:54:56 AM

North American Telecom (XTC.X) 732.97 ... comes back to unchanged.

Tab Gilles : 8/12/2005 10:54:29 AM

Newmont Mining (NEM) Hitting 200-ma. Link

Tab Gilles : 8/12/2005 10:51:19 AM

CandleGlance Link

$SOX Hitting 38.2% Fib Retracement on July low/August high. Link Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/12/2005 10:49:14 AM

HMO Index (HMO.X) 1,551.57 +0.09% Link ... edges green.

Wellpoint (WLP) $72.89 -0.54% Link ...

Tab Gilles : 8/12/2005 10:47:24 AM

iShares Lehman 20+ Year Treas Bond (TLT) Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/12/2005 10:46:23 AM

S&P Retail Index (RLX.X) Link 465.93 -0.44% ... another potentially sensitive "yield" index/sector. Will lower yield further stimulate consumer spending habits?

Jeff Bailey : 8/12/2005 10:42:43 AM

S&P Banks Index (BIX.X) components found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 8/12/2005 10:41:41 AM

I'm still scanning a lot of Keltner charts this morning that show some indices testing the bottom support of the channels that have mostly contained their prices recently, and many are still holding to support. That includes the TRAN, holding above 3729.21 on 15-minute closes, with the TRAN now at 3734.21. Need to get some bigger drops started if bears are going to be in control the rest of today. On the plus side for bears, the advdec line moves sideways to sideways up instead of bouncing much yet. I kind of expect a move higher in the advdec line, perhaps to -2128 or -1237 or so. It's at -2596 as I type.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/12/2005 10:38:21 AM

The 30 min cycle downphase is getting precious little traction following the opening gap down for QQQQ. 72 SMA resistance is down to 39.16, above which that downphase will stall. Despite the sustained bearish volume breadth at -3.43:1 on the Nasdaq, price isn't going down- just chopping sideways.

Jeff Bailey : 8/12/2005 10:36:35 AM

Bank of America (BAC) $42.82 +0.07% ...

Linda Piazza : 8/12/2005 10:36:06 AM

SOX downside Keltner target still valid, that target now at 460.08.

Jeff Bailey : 8/12/2005 10:31:59 AM

S&P Banks Index (BIX.X) 355.08 -0.13% ... keep a VERY CLOSE EYE on the banks today. If Marc Eckelberry is correct with his 10-year yield ($TNX.X) analysis from last Friday, then stocks may find a MAJOR bid. Bank margins in my opinion should be under pressure. However, IF THE BANKS BID, then it MUST MEAN the MARKET BELIEVES that NEW LOAN GENERATION will PICK UP.

Linda Piazza : 8/12/2005 10:31:18 AM

OEX moving up to retest mid-channel S/R. While channels are in an equilibrium position, as they are now, this apparently strong resistance may not offer resistance at all, strangely enough, but it is so far.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/12/2005 10:27:10 AM

Session high for crude oil at 66.45, +.65.

Linda Piazza : 8/12/2005 10:27:01 AM

RLX still testing the levels of the swing highs from late last year and from this spring. Needs a drop below Monday's 463.93 low to get things going to the downside, and then 460 might also provide some support. It's at 465.81 as I type.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/12/2005 10:22:33 AM

This is either a big short cycle bullish divegence or a very weak short cycle upphase- the oscillators are actually rising as price declines: Link

Linda Piazza : 8/12/2005 10:22:30 AM

Benchmarking impressions: As bears would have hoped, the advdec line is moving sideways rather than bouncing after hitting extreme levels on a short-term basis for this move. RSI isn't even lifting a finger off the 20.28-ish floor it's reached, though, and bears would like to see RSI cycling up while the advdec line moves sideways. Not sure too much "oversold" pressure has been relieved yet.

Jeff Bailey : 8/12/2005 10:20:44 AM

10:00 Internals found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 8/12/2005 10:19:42 AM

The OEX's 60-minute chart shows a narrowing, coiling formation, with boundaries now at 570.68 on the downside and about 574.84 on the upside. Those who want to consider a breakdown play would want to wait for a 15-minute close beneath a Keltner line currently at 570.05, I think, and be fully aware that such breakdown plays would be risky. On such a 15-minute close, the OEX has a downside target of 567.09, but such a trader would need to be willing and able to jump right back out if the OEX soon reversed. Those already in bearish plays should protect profits if the OEX approaches 570, perhaps considering taking at least partial profits and resetting stops to breakeven on the rest. Until and unless such a breakdown occurs, we have to remember the OEX's prolonged pattern of trading within this channel much more often that it breaks outside it.

Linda Piazza : 8/12/2005 10:13:27 AM

SOX target 460.36 on the 15-minute Keltner channels. Now at 461.34.

Linda Piazza : 8/12/2005 10:12:58 AM

OEX still in the middle of that zone that's narrowed over the last few days, rising to test 572.70-573 mid-channel resistance again, or at least attempting to do so. Those in bearish positions want a rollover from there. Those wanting a new bearish position want a push back up to the top of the recent range and a rollover from there.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/12/2005 10:12:17 AM

VXO 12.06, VXN 15.89

Jonathan Levinson : 8/12/2005 10:08:37 AM

30 min channel support dives to QQQQ 38.95, support at the low for the week: Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/12/2005 10:08:10 AM

10:00 Market Watch found at this Link ... Yield alert! 10-year ($TNX.X) breaking below its 21-day SMA.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/12/2005 10:07:01 AM

Sept. crude reopens, +.40 at its 66.20 session high.

Linda Piazza : 8/12/2005 10:06:58 AM

RUT again testing the neckline for its H&S on the two- and four-hour charts, again trying to steady there. With a strong thrust lower this morning, bulls were still able to stop the move at this neckline, at about 658. The RUT has pierced this neckline before--Wednesday--but it needs to pierce it and stay below it, or there's danger of the bulls sending the RUT higher again, into another test of the right-shoulder level or perhaps as high as 680, to retest the former long-term rising regression channel's former support. I wouldn't want to be buying the RUT at the neckline, especially after today's economic news and the RUT's early morning steep decline, but I'm not as adventurous as some, and some have obviously been buying this neckline on each test this week. Bears just need to get the job done or bull will take over, for the short-term at least.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/12/2005 10:04:54 AM

Session high for ten year notes at 110 29/32, TNX down 5.7 bps at 4.277%, a big 1.32% drop today.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/12/2005 10:02:31 AM

QQQQ has yet to regain the broken rising trendline connecting the lows of the past 3 days, having gapped below it at the open. The short cycles are trying to turn up, but so far the price has been heavy below 39.15. Bulls need to see a minimum of a move above 39.20, the broken trendline and pivot for the day, to confirm any new short cycle upphase. Link

Linda Piazza : 8/12/2005 10:02:08 AM

Benchmarking impressions: Some tentative signs of the advdec line attempting to steady, but tentative only so far. Bears want to see a sideways to sideways-up move to relieve "oversold" pressure on the advdec line while equities essentially do the same, while bulls want to see a strong bounce higher in both.

Jeff Bailey : 8/12/2005 10:01:34 AM

Ameritrade (AMTD) $20.16 -0.04% Link ... Monthly metrics ... reported 144,000 average client trades per day in July 2005. As of July 29, 2005, qualified accounts totaled 1,742,000. The company opened 23,000 and closed 14,000 accounts during July, resulting in 3,698,000 total accounts. Said average client margin balances in July of approximately $3.5 billion. On July 29, 2005, client margin balances totaled approximately $3.6 bln and client assets totaled approximately $82.2 bln, of which cash and money market assets totaled $13.2 billion.

Jeff Bailey : 8/12/2005 9:58:50 AM

Ivanhoe Mines (IVN) $7.79 +1.56% Link ... reported a Q2 loss of $0.10 vs. loss of $0.08 in the year-ago quarter. Revenues up 52% to $30.8 million.

Linda Piazza : 8/12/2005 9:58:41 AM

SOX still has a downside target of 460.59. Needs a new LOD, but yesterday's low is providing some support.

Linda Piazza : 8/12/2005 9:57:27 AM

The OEX is now just under mid-channel Keltner S/R near 572.87-573.00, but within yesterday's and Wednesday's narrowing rising regression channel, with boundaries now at about 570.50 on the downside and 575 on the upside. Those are ringed by the Keltner channel that's mostly been containing OEX movements for a long while, with boundaries at 570 and 575.60 on 15-minute closes. So, despite the way this feels this morning, nothing much unusual is happening with the OEX, and there's the possibility that it will just narrow this range even further. If you were in a bearish play from yesterday evening's approach to the top of the channel, perhaps, then you want the OEX to drop to 570-570.50, but you need to have profit-protecting plans in place in case it does. I would definitely suggest taking at least partial profits unless the OEX just crashes through that level. I'd reset my stops on the rest of the position at that point, too.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/12/2005 9:57:16 AM

Ten year note yields have tumbled to 4.282%, breaking 4.3% resistance and heading for next support at 4.26%. The daily cycle indicators are on sell signals, bearish divergent on the 10-day stoch and bullish for ten year treasury notes.

Jeff Bailey : 8/12/2005 9:55:05 AM

Internet Initiative Japan (IIJI) $10.23 +9.64% Link ... remains volatile, but higher after the company reported net income of $5.6 million, up from a loss in the year-ago quarter. Revenues were up 13.9% to $89.1 million.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/12/2005 9:54:37 AM

Thanks, Linda (blushing).

The Fed announced a 6.5B weekend repo, resulting in a net add of 4B against the 2.5B expiring. QQQQ jumped as the announcement was made, but is pulling back as I type. The stop out rate was 3.5, right on the overnight target rate.

Linda Piazza : 8/12/2005 9:52:47 AM

So nice to see the real Jonathan back again. (See Jonathan's 9:51 post.) We have a few writers who can keep us entertained and informed at the same time (not me--I enjoy humor but can't employ it well), and Jonathan is definitely one of those writers.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/12/2005 9:51:41 AM

Right now the Fed governors are manning their Batphones, discussing the 2.5B expiry and deciding how much to add to or drain from their dealers' reserves. The announcement is due within the next few minutes.

Jeff Bailey : 8/12/2005 9:51:12 AM

Red Robin Gourmet Burgers (RRGB) $47.55 -20.45% ... I will keep an open order on those calls. If filled will al_rt traders.

Session low has been $44.13 with high $48.15.

Linda Piazza : 8/12/2005 9:50:52 AM

SOX testing yesterday's low. Dipped a little below it, but still in testing range so far. It's set a downside target of 460.62 on the Keltner charts, and is now at 462.69.

Linda Piazza : 8/12/2005 9:49:52 AM

Benchmarking impressions: Still no sign of steadying in the advdec line, but remain aware f the possibility as the advdec line is still in testing territory as far as lower Keltner support is concerned. It's breached it a little, but not by much yet.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/12/2005 9:48:35 AM

Headline:

UMICH AUG. CURRENT CONDITIONS 110.4 VS. 113.2 JULY: REPORTS

Jonathan Levinson : 8/12/2005 9:48:26 AM

Volume breadth -2.4:1 on the NYSE, -4.5:1 on the Nasdaq.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/12/2005 9:47:26 AM

Headline:

UMICH AUG. CONSUMER SENTIMENT 92.7 VS 96.5 IN JULY: REPORTS

Linda Piazza : 8/12/2005 9:47:24 AM

Benchmarking impressions: the advdec line has reached extreme levels for this short-term move according to QCharts and the nested Keltner channels. We could see a trending-downward move begin on the advdec line, but recent history suggests that either a sideways/sideways-up move or a bounce (in the advdec line) to relieve oversold levels might be more likely. If so an equity bounce might also be attempted, but bears want to see the advdec line stay in negative territory, hopefully below a Keltner line now at -695. These lines move fast, however. So far, there's no sign of steadying in the advdec line, but just be aware that it's possible, and that it's also possible that a steadying or even bounce attempts might begin in the equities, too. If so, I'd think they're most likely to be corrective moves, but we'll see. Don't trade on this information.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/12/2005 9:46:40 AM

Equities have just dropped suddenly for a moment, at 9:45, when the Michigan Sentiment is scheduled for release. If they adhere to their usual performance, it'll come out sometime over the next ten minutes as the markets lurch hither and yon.

Jeff Bailey : 8/12/2005 9:43:33 AM

Swing trade bullish call alert ... bidding for two (2) of the Red Robin Gourmet Burger RRGB Mar $55 Calls (QZR-CK) at $1.80. ($1.80 x $3.00)

RRGB $45.80 here.

Linda Piazza : 8/12/2005 9:43:26 AM

Unfortunately, the OEX is still just rattling around within that 570-575 (formerly 569-574) consolidation zone. Would have been nice for a new bearish entry to have offered itself at the open, but that strong gap lower didn't offer such an opportunity.

Linda Piazza : 8/12/2005 9:41:56 AM

My QCharts daily OEX chart shows an opening level of 1350! Now wouldn't that have been a wonderful day for some bulls if that had been true!

Linda Piazza : 8/12/2005 9:40:55 AM

Lots of indices dropping, but most are dropping through the center of that same Keltner channel that's contained most OEX movements, too, and dropping within yesterday's choppy ranges, so although it feels terrible to bulls, bears need further declines.

Linda Piazza : 8/12/2005 9:37:25 AM

OEX balancing at the mid-channel S/R on its 15-minute charts, also at the 473-474 S/R zone that's sometimes in play over recent weeks.

Linda Piazza : 8/12/2005 9:36:23 AM

Benchmarking impressions: Careful, bears. Advdec line on Keltner channels show an extreme level being approached at -2332, with the advdec line (QCharts version) at -1781. May be a potential bounce attempt coming during the first retracement of the day in a few minutes.

Jeff Bailey : 8/12/2005 9:37:12 AM

Red Robin Gourmet Burgers (RRGB) $44.78 -25.05% Link ... plunging after the restaurant chain reported Q2 earnings of $7.4 million, or $0.45 a share vs. $5.8 million, or $0.35 a share in the year-ago period. Company said late yesterday that its CEO Michael Snyder retired during an internal investigation into his corporate expenses. Snyder, who was Red Robin's chairman, chief executive and president, has agreed to reimburse the company. The company said that the expense amounts involved are not material to its financial position or results of operations.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/12/2005 9:35:44 AM

Stepping away for 10 minutes.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/12/2005 9:35:24 AM

QQQQ surges back above 39.15, just to keep things interesting, on moderate volume. Price is still entirely below the 30 min channel bottom, however, so the move is so far just correcting the excessive premarket drop.

Linda Piazza : 8/12/2005 9:34:48 AM

SOX dropping, but not yet below yesterday's 462.78 LOD. At 464.19 as I type, still looking as if it's below one version of its neckline, at 465.90 of so.

Linda Piazza : 8/12/2005 9:32:58 AM

OEX gapped lower, down to the middle of the channel that's been containing most movements, so unless you were in a bearish play already, no opportunity to enter at the top of the channel.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/12/2005 9:32:03 AM

The 30 and 60 min cycles have aborted their pre-4PM bounces, and the bearish bias this AM will continue so long as price holds below the 72 SMA at QQQQ 39.31.

Keene Little : 8/12/2005 9:30:19 AM

Looks like more choppiness ahead. I agree with Marc's comment that opex week next week will only aggravate the current situation. Volatility should increase and it's already been on the upswing. To keep bears salivating (which this market is cruelly doing) here's an EW labeling on the ES 30-min chart that shows some significant downside potential. Link

We have to wait for a break below Wednesday's 1228.25 low for confirmation of this count but it could be a very swift ride to the downside if it occurs. I've got the move down to Monday's low labeled as wave-1, the bounce up to Wednesday's high as wave-2, the drop to Wednesday's low as wave-(i) of 3, and then the bounce into yesterday's close as wave-(ii) of 3 (not sure if that's done yet--watch 1242-1243 for resistance). This labeling suggests that when the current bounce is finished we will start wave-(iii) of 3 to the downside.

For traders there's nothing like a 3rd of a 3rd wave since it's a strong and fast mover. It's a money maker. They often start with a gap and just keep running so is this morning's gap down the start of it? Who knows and unfortunately the sideways consolidation pattern we're in is typically marked with lots of choppy price action. I'd rather take a short at 1242-1243 instead of the middle of this triangle pattern. But a break below Wednesday's low will have me aggressively looking for shorting opportunities.

This is the bearish interpretation of this pattern. The bullish interpretation is that we're simply chopping our way higher. Scalp 'em til we know which way we're going.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/12/2005 8:53:24 AM

Consumer sentiment is next at 9:45, or whichever later time they choose to release it. The Fed has 2.5B in overnight repos expiring, minimal in light of their recent huge numbers, and there are no Treasury auctions today.

Linda Piazza : 8/12/2005 8:52:19 AM

Yesterday, the OEX spend most of the day wandering around again within the 569-574-ish zone. It closed the day above 574, near 575, climbing slightly above the former support of that resistance zone from most of July. However, a look at yesterday's 15-minute chart shows a possibility that it's just raising that consolidation band from 569-574 to 570-575. The OEX ended the day back near the top of the channel that's contained most of its movements except for occasional breakout for oh-so-long. That resistance is at 575.41 on 15-minute closes. Other than those who are bravely trading that channel, the OEX has just not made a good trading tool lately. It's range-bound and moves only briefly, then to settle down into a new range. The Keltner channel setup makes it likely that the 570-575.50-ish channel will hold again . . . until it doesn't.

I've been saying this week that many indices were showing potential H&S formations on their 1-hour to daily charts, but that many needed more right-shoulder-building time, and it seemed too early for neckline breaks or invalidations to occur. Well, we've gotten that time, and the RUT's formation looks nearly balanced right-shoulder-to-left-shoulder, although it could perhaps use another jolt higher first. The SOX could perhaps use another push higher, too, although bears don't want to see it push higher than 477-478 and would prefer it stop closer to 472-474 if it's got to rise at all. The TRAN's formation looks as if it needs to do something or other, either shooting up and being quickly reversed (bears hope) or dropping below Monday's low and confirming the formation. And so it goes. Those formations look almost finished now, or close enough so that I would no longer be quite so doubtful if they should attempt confirmations. Today could be another day of right-shoulder building on these indices and chopping movements on the OEX, or it could be about time for these formations to be tested, either a test that moves toward invalidation or one that moves toward confirmation. For this morning on the OEX, watch that channel for a presumptive move back down through it again, knowing that something might be wrong if the 575.41 line is breached on 15-minute closes, and keeping a close eye on those potential H&S's, to see if the action in these other indices is corroborating the idea that the OEX might roll down through that channel again. Be protective of any bearish profits if the OEX should approach 569-570. One good tactic lately has been to take at least partial profits as the bottom of the channel is tested, and then to set the rest of the position to breakeven. Almost always, those partial profits are then going to be the only ones reaped, though, but there's always a chance of a greater pullback. The same tactic works best when the OEX rolls up through that Keltner channel toward the top. Take at least partial bullish profits as the top boundary is approached.

Jane Fox : 8/12/2005 8:46:28 AM

Here the WSJ take on the trade deficit WASHINGTON -- The U.S. trade deficit resumed deteriorating during June as expected, widened by rising oil prices and record demand for foreign crude.

The U.S. deficit in international trade of goods and services grew 6.1% to $58.82 billion, the Commerce Department said Friday.

The trade gap in May had narrowed to a slightly revised $55.43 billion from April's $56.90 billion. Analysts credited a drop in oil prices with shrinking the May deficit, originally seen at $55.35 billion, but they expected the imbalance to resume course because crude reversed and headed back up.

June exports were unchanged and imports rose 2.1% to a record high, producing a trade shortfall that was bigger than Wall Street expected. The median forecast of 22 economists surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires and CNBC was for a June deficit of $57.50 billion.

Trade is a component of U.S. gross domestic product and therefore influences overall economic growth. The government two weeks ago issued its first estimate on second-quarter GDP, which grew 3.4%. The report, based on assumptions about June imports and exports, showed trade added 1.57 percentage points to GDP in the April-June period.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/12/2005 8:46:02 AM

QQQQ loses 39.15 support, breaking the 30 and 60 min channels as the short cycle rolls over.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/12/2005 8:40:45 AM

Thousands of Travelers Are Stranded As British Airways Cancels Heathrow Flights Over Labor Dispute

LONDON (AP) -- At least 70,000 travelers were left stranded Friday as British Airways canceled all flights to and from Heathrow Airport after a wildcat strike among catering staff spread to baggage handlers and other ground crew.

Link

Jonathan Levinson : 8/12/2005 8:37:41 AM

Sept. crude oil holds its 20 cent gain at 66, 20 cents off the high.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/12/2005 8:33:31 AM

Headline:

DOLLAR DECLINES AS REPORT SHOWS WIDER U.S. TRADE GAP

Jonathan Levinson : 8/12/2005 8:33:15 AM

QQQQ dipped as low as 39.14 there, currently sitting on 39.15 support. Ten year yields are up 4.7 bps at 4.381%.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/12/2005 8:31:50 AM

Headlines:

U.S. JUNE TRADE GAP WIDENS 6.1% TO $58.8 BLN

U.S. JUNE TRADE GAP ABOVE CONSENSUS OF $57.0 BLN

U.S. IMPORT VALUE OF CRUDE OIL HITS RECORD $14.6 BLN IN JUNE

U.S. JUNE TRADE GAP WITH CHINA RECORD $17.6 BLN

U.S. JULY IMPORT PRICES UP 1.1% VS. 0.7% EXPECTED

U.S. JULY EXPORT PRICES UP 0.1%

U.S JULY IMPORT PRICES EX-OIL DOWN 0.1%

U.S. JULY IMPORT PRICES UP 7.7% YEAR-ON-YEAR

U.S. JULY PETROLEUM IMPORT PRICES UP 6.6%

U.S. JULY IMPORTED CAPITAL GOODS PRICES FALL 0.7%

U.S. IMPORT PRICES FROM CHINA FALL 0.2% IN JULY

U.S. IMPORT PRICES FROM EU FALL 0.3% IN JULY

Jonathan Levinson : 8/12/2005 8:25:44 AM

Zooming out to see the past 2 1/2 days, we see the Dell Dip taking price back to the 39.15 QQQQ support within what has been a sideways range except on an intraday/short cycle basis. If viewed as a coil/sideways pennant, then today's dip breaks rising lower support. I won't trust it until either 38.95 or 39.70 breaks- these ranges have a way of persisting longer than expected. My gut expects it all to resolve to the downside, based on the daily and weekly cycles, but the range break should be determinative. Link

Jonathan Levinson : 8/12/2005 7:46:59 AM

Equities are down, ES trading 1236, NQ 1593.5, YM 10675 and QQQQ -.26 at 39.17. Ten year notes are up 9/64 at a session high of 110 49/64, gold is up 3.10 to 450.7, silver is up .03 to 7.217, and crude oil is up .20 to 66.

We await the 8:30 releases of Export Prices ex-ag, prior -.1%, import prices ex-oil, prior -.4%, the Trade Balance, est. -57.2B and at 9:45, Michigan Sentiment, est. 96.5.

Linda Piazza : 8/12/2005 6:53:50 AM

Good morning. The Nikkei oscillated around the flat-line level last night, and closed there, too, down 1.64 points. Other Asian markets were mixed. European markets trade lower, with technology stocks pressured due to a Dell effect. Our futures are modestly lower. As of 6:46 EST, gold was higher by $2.10, and crude, up $0.20 to $66.00. More detail about Asian and European markets follows in succeeding paragraphs.

Japan's GDP rose 0.3% from the previous quarter and an annualized rate of 1.1%, the Cabinet Office said Friday morning. The figure disappointed, with one article reporting expectations for the quarter-over-quarter rise at 0.5%, and a Bloomberg article pegging expectations for a 1.9% rise on the annualized figure. Still, this was the third straight quarter that saw an expansion. Exports rose as did company and household spending. The first quarter number was revised higher to 5.4% from the previous 4.9% on stronger consumer spending and a smaller-than-expected decline in exports. Earlier in the week, the IMF, the International Monetary Fund, had increased its estimate of 2005's growth forecast to 1.8% from the previous prediction of 0.8%.

The Nikkei coiled around the flat-line level Friday, with financials gaining in earliest trading and temporarily sending the Nikkei into higher values that were soon dampened. Two brokerages, Nomura and Credit Suisse First Boston, had upgraded their ratings on Japanese financials. Exporters were hurt by another record high in crude prices, but those related to domestic demand tended to see stock prices higher in earliest trading. Energy-related issues gained in early trading, too, with crude prices higher. The Nikkei ended the day near the flat-line level, too, up 1.64 points or 0.01%, at 12,261.68.

Other Asian markets produced mixed results. The Taiwan Weighted lost 0.04%, but South Korea's Kospi gained 0.57%. Singapore's Straits Times dropped 0.12%, but Hong Kong's Hang Seng rose 0.04%. The U.S. and China are to meet in San Francisco next week to seek a solution that will avoid protectionist action against imports of Chinese textiles. China's Shanghai Composite fell 1.32%.

European markets decline. Factors pressuring markets include a British Airways unscheduled strike of catering staff, disappointing GDP data from France, and a carryover effect on tech stocks due to Dell's decline. British Airways was forced to cancel some flights, and BA's decline carried over to some other airlines in early trading. France's GDP fell to 0.1%, down from the previous quarter's 0.4%, with an annualized growth rate of 1.2%. Technology stocks tended to trade lower.

Companies reporting earnings included German steelmaker ThyssenKrupp, with the stock posting strong gains after that report beat expectations. Defense contractor Thales also gained, but more slightly, after reporting. Swiss private bank Julius Baer declined after its report. In other news-related developments, Lehman Brothers upgraded exchange Euronext, downgraded the London Stock Exchange, and raised the price target for the Deutsche Boerse. LSE declined, but the other two posted small gains. Bear Stearns raised its rating on U.K. mobile phone operator and the stock gained in London.

As of 6:42 EST, the FTSE 100 showed a loss of 10.30 points or 0.19%, and traded at 5,348.30. The CAC 40 was lower by 34.47 points or 0.76%, at 4,474.63. The DAX was lower by 12.13 points or 0.24%, at 4,941.80.

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