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Jeff Bailey : 8/16/2005 12:02:32 AM

Program Trading Levels for Tuesday ... HL Camp & Company has their computers set for program buying at $+3.06 and set for program selling at $+0.58.

OI Technical Staff : 8/15/2005 9:59:59 PM

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Jeff Bailey : 8/15/2005 4:50:29 PM

Pivot Matrix for Tuesday found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/15/2005 4:26:39 PM

Closing U.S. Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/15/2005 4:22:36 PM

Closing Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/15/2005 4:13:24 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles found at this Link ... Today's Activity ... I did not profile any new positions today.

Jeff Bailey : 8/15/2005 4:09:24 PM

Top in oil? Link ... "nasty looking" triple bottom sell signal today at $284.00 for the CME.

Jeff Bailey : 8/15/2005 4:02:20 PM

Buy Program Premium ... DIA $106.59, SPY $123.75

Linda Piazza : 8/15/2005 4:00:57 PM

OEX still pulling back from the top of that same old channel. Bears betting on another rollover through that channel would prefer that the drop be more precipitous.

Linda Piazza : 8/15/2005 3:55:48 PM

The SOX has been trading mostly sideways/sideways-down, too, after spending a lot of time testing the 30-minute 100/130-ema's. It hasn't pulled back far yet. SOX at 468.01.

Jeff Bailey : 8/15/2005 3:55:53 PM

Google (GOOG) $284.67 -1.79% ... erasing morning gains after trading as high as $292.77. Company saying it has shelved an ambitious library project to scan every book in the world for three months to allow copyright holders time to opt out of being scanned and included in Google's index.

Linda Piazza : 8/15/2005 3:54:12 PM

The OEX is sinking down into Keltner mid-channel support, but mostly trading sideways/sideways-down since about 1:15.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/15/2005 3:52:19 PM

Because the intraday cycles have not yet peaked in nosebleed territory, it's reasonable to expect residual upside tomorrow morning. My only gut tells me that we've see the move for this set of intraday upphases, and the next big move should be down. Bears can enter on a break below 39.45 and look to cover if the Qs break 39.70, in which case the daily cycle will be at risk of reversing and the year highs come back into view. Patient bears can wait to short an opening pop, always using that 39.70 level as a stop.

Linda Piazza : 8/15/2005 3:44:35 PM

BIX at 356.71, down from a high of 357.11, with the 10-sma at 357.32. So far, that resistance holds, but the BIX has resisted falling all the way to the bottom of its broadening formation, with that formation's support at about 350.25 now.

Linda Piazza : 8/15/2005 3:32:08 PM

OEX 573.69 Keltner resistance still holds. The OEX consolidates below this resistance, and that's about all we know at this point. Until the OEX begins producing 15-minute closes below a Keltner line currently at 572.47, it's probably likely to go on challenging that resistance. OEX at 572.65 as I type.

Linda Piazza : 8/15/2005 3:18:40 PM

The TRAN has a potential H&S on its daily chart. Today and Friday both, it minimally violated the possible neckline level, at about 3723, but both days, the TRAN bounced off that LOD. Neither has it bounced too high, violating the right-shoulder area, so that this churning is in keeping with a possible right-shoulder-building exercise. There's danger, though, that if bears don't soon see some follow-through, TRAN investors might soon be willing to bounce the TRAN much higher, up past 3800 and into a violation of this potential H&S formation, the way they did back in July, when a potential H&S was violated then by a rise above the right-shoulder level. The TRAN is at 3761.22 as I type, still inside the right-shoulder level.

Jane Fox : 8/15/2005 3:17:37 PM

Dateline WSJ The stock market doesn't always hit trouble in the fall, of course. But September long has been far and away the worst month for stocks.

And there is plenty to worry about this September: Oil is approaching $70 a barrel, the Federal Reserve is hard at work raising short-term interest rates, and September marks the quarter's end, when companies facing high analyst expectations may have to warn of profit disappointments.

Since 1900, September is the only month in which the Dow Jones Industrial Average has fallen more often than it has risen. The Dow industrials have fallen 1.2% in September, on average, making it the only month with an average decline of any significance. The industrials fell in each of the past six Septembers, and in 18 of the 25 from 1980 through 2004. More bull markets have ended in September than in any other month, according to Ned Davis Research of Venice, Fla.

For October, the average gain is barely above zero. And when really bad things happen, they somehow do it in October. That is when stocks crashed in 1929 and 1987. Of the Dow industrials' 15 worst one-day percentage declines, seven came during October.

"September and October have typically been volatile months when you have had some selloffs," says Tim Heekin, director of trading at San Francisco brokerage firm Thomas Weisel Partners. "I would look for that to happen again." (He thinks stocks will rebound after that.)

Linda Piazza : 8/15/2005 3:13:32 PM

OEX upper Keltner resistance on that same old channel still holds, with the mostly moving sideways since about noon.

Linda Piazza : 8/15/2005 3:11:03 PM

Benchmarking impressions: The advdec line is moving sideways into rising Keltner support, that support down to 524.50 and the advdec line at 938. This sideways action is bullish, but support still needs to hold.

Jeff Bailey : 8/15/2005 3:09:56 PM

03:00 Internals found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 8/15/2005 3:06:49 PM

QQQQ is rolling over with the wavelet oscillator in a possible right shoulder above a 39.45-.47 neckline: Link . The trouble the bearish interpretation here is the still-rising 60 min cycle channel. A break below 39.45 should be enough to overcome it, however- the 72 SMA has already failed.

Linda Piazza : 8/15/2005 3:02:46 PM

SOX still testing 30-minute 100/130-ema's at 468.75 and 469.29, with the SOX at 468.99. The actual descending trendline off the August 3 high is currently at about 470.

Jeff Bailey : 8/15/2005 3:02:37 PM

03:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/15/2005 2:59:25 PM

S&P Banks Index (BIX.X) 357.06 +0.76% ... 15-minute chart at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/15/2005 2:50:15 PM

S&P 500 (SPX.X) 1,234.71 +0.35% ... updated 15-minute interval chart at this Link ... Last week I made note of 200-pd SMA acting as formidable support during July rally, then resistance when broken on 08/04/05.

BULLS may look for comeback test of WEEKLY Pivot and 200-pd SMA for push to new highs. Keep eye on your banks!

Linda Piazza : 8/15/2005 2:48:35 PM

So far, the OEX resistance at the top of that same old Keltner channel, at 573.50 on 15-minute closes, holds. The OEX tests Keltner support now at the mid-channel level, with that down to 571.41. It looks relatively strong, but with the channels in equilibrium status, the OEX sometimes courses rather smoothly across the mid-channel level as it cycles down through the channel. This time, though, the mid-channel level is joined by the former descending trendline off Wednesday's high, at about 572.40.

Jeff Bailey : 8/15/2005 2:34:06 PM

Tweeter (TWTR) $4.13 +5.35% Link ... continues to impress after recent round of mortgage refinancings.

Jeff Bailey : 8/15/2005 2:32:55 PM

Dolby Laboratories (DLB) $16.41 -7.13% Link ... getting "squelched" to new lows.

Linda Piazza : 8/15/2005 2:31:36 PM

SOX still testing the 30-minute 100/130-ema's and the top of the descending regression channel in which it's traded this month. Those averages are at 468.73 and 469.31, respectively, and the SOX is at 468.85, between them.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/15/2005 2:30:56 PM

A wavelet upphase has just kicked off for QQQQ, and should be good for another 15 minutes or so at its current slow run rate. A bounce to a lower high would confirm a top in the short cycle, within the flattening 30 min channel. But the 60 min cycle is still rising, and the persistence at the highs makes me think that we can expect one of those endless sideways "weightless" zones while the 60 min channel tops. A break of 39.45 could speed things up, but my guess is sideways from here below 39.65.

Jeff Bailey : 8/15/2005 2:30:35 PM

William Lyon Homes (WLS) $137.57 +4.74% Link ... "roaring" to a new 52-weeker.

Jeff Bailey : 8/15/2005 2:29:19 PM

Reliance Steel & Aluminum (RS) $49.78 +1.69% Link ... new 52-weeker and nearing its bullish vertical count of $50.00. If long, would look to be taking some profits off the table.

Jeff Bailey : 8/15/2005 2:27:07 PM

Goldman Sachs (GS) $114.41 +0.66% Link ... notable new 52-week high at the big board.

Jeff Bailey : 8/15/2005 2:23:39 PM

NYSE NH/NL Ratio chart found at this Link ... It would currently take a closing reading of 84% for the five-day ratio to reverse back higher.

Jeff Bailey : 8/15/2005 2:18:32 PM

HMO Index (HMO.X) 1553.78 +0.19% Link ... probing Thursday/Friday highs.

Wellpoint (WLP) $72.37 -0.19% Link ...

Jonathan Levinson : 8/15/2005 2:18:13 PM






Jeff Bailey : 8/15/2005 2:14:43 PM

02:00 Internals found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 8/15/2005 2:07:55 PM

Stepping away for a few minutes; I will be back shortly.

Linda Piazza : 8/15/2005 2:07:32 PM

So far, Keltner resistance at 573.37 is holding for the OEX. Despite the possibility that the advdec line might move higher, toward 2325

Jeff Bailey : 8/15/2005 2:05:52 PM

02:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 8/15/2005 2:03:19 PM

There's now a bearish divergence in QQQQ's short cycle oscillators against the most recent high, with 30 min channel resistance stabilizing below 39.70. However, bearish indications are doubtful above 39.45 support, above which the bulls remain in control. Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/15/2005 1:53:42 PM

Amerco (UHAL) $58.67 +3.5% ... notable new 52-weeker at the NASDAQ.

Jeff Bailey : 8/15/2005 1:51:02 PM

I did not know that Avaya (AV) would be a buy/sell/hold stock on CNBC. Fundamental analyst liked it for a long.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/15/2005 1:50:05 PM

QQQQ's next confluence resistance is at 39.70-.72, last week's high and the do or doo-doo line for the daily cycle downphase.

Jeff Bailey : 8/15/2005 1:48:46 PM

SpectraLink (SLNK) $11.86 +1.19% Link ...

Jeff Bailey : 8/15/2005 1:47:21 PM

Avaya (AV) $9.91 +2.05% Link ... starting to look attractive from the long/call side again. Seeing some decent action (2,916:4,546) in the Sep. $10 Calls (AV-IB) today.

Dec. $10 Calls (AV-LB) $1.00 "priced right" and attractive.

Linda Piazza : 8/15/2005 1:46:09 PM

We're entering a prime stop-running time of day, so be careful.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/15/2005 1:45:23 PM

Session low for crude oil, -1.30 at 65.55.

Linda Piazza : 8/15/2005 1:39:56 PM

Benchmarking impressions: It looks possible for the advdec line to rise toward 2333. It's currently at 1288.

Jeff Bailey : 8/15/2005 1:32:20 PM

10-year YIELD ($TNX.X) up 2.5 bp at 4.263%.

Linda Piazza : 8/15/2005 1:32:13 PM

Once again, I missed the upside swing through that channel that has mostly contained the OEX. It's rising to test that channel boundary now, at 573.33 on 15-minute closes, with the OEX at 573.02. Bulls need to have profit-protecting plans in place for this upside test, as this channel is mostly holding. On a 15-minute close above this channel line, the upside target and resistance is at 577.29, but treat such a target loosely, as the OEX sometimes breaches this resistance only slightly, to pull back inside. For bears who want to try their hand at participating as the OEX perhaps rolls back through the channel again, the bottom support is now 568.90, but the advdec line's Keltner chart suggests there could still be a continued test of resistance and that test might not be concluded just yet.

Jeff Bailey : 8/15/2005 1:31:35 PM

S&P 100 Index (OEX.X) 572.76 +0.36% ... makes way above WEEKLY Pivot.

BIX.X 356.77 +0.68%

Jeff Bailey : 8/15/2005 1:30:05 PM

Sprint (FON) $26.15 finalizes Nextel (NXTL) $33.32 deal's terms. Begins trading on the bid board under the ticker symbol (NYSE:S) $26.22 +0.34%, with preliminary calculation showing Nextel shareholders will get 1.2675 shares of the combined company's stock and 84.63 cents in cash for each share of Nextel.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/15/2005 1:30:01 PM

Volume is still 2.5M QQQQ shares away from Friday's volume, but breadth is positive at +1.78:1 on the NYSE and +2.42:1 on the Nasdaq. QQQQ's 30 min channel hasrisen to 39.65, but as price holds near the highs, that level has a good chance of rising. The first sign of trouble for bulls will be a break of 39.45. Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/15/2005 1:23:36 PM

Buy Program Premium ... DIA $106.56, SPX 1,234.98, QQQQ $39.56. BIX.X 356.50 , RLX.X 472.10 +0.59%

Linda Piazza : 8/15/2005 1:23:36 PM

Benchmarking impressions: Since my last post about the advdec line on Keltner channel charts, the advdec line has held its breakout status and so then migth still be headed toward upper channel target and resistance, now at 2289.70. At that point, it would be approaching extreme levels for this move.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/15/2005 1:24:15 PM

The Treasury auctioned 34B of 13- and 26-week bills, of which foreign central banks took 7.5B. The 13-week bills generated a 3.47% high-yield, with a bid-to-cover of 2.31. The 26-week bills went for a high-yield of 3.705%, bid-to-cover ratio of 2.3. These were new high high-rates for the year.

Linda Piazza : 8/15/2005 1:22:04 PM

So far, the OEX's 30-minute 100/130-ema's and the descending trendline off last week's high hold as resistance for the OEX, but it's not pulling back in this 30-minute period the way that bears would like to see happen after the last 30-minute period's shooting star potential reversal signal. On a Keltner basis, the OEX tests mid-channel Keltner resistance from 572.35-572.45 with the OEX at 571.99. A sustained break above this resistance would set a first upside target of 575.18, but the OEX is essentially still just chopping around inside that same old channel. There's a hint of a descending regression channel off Tuesday's high, but that may instead by a narrowing wedge, a potentially bullish falling wedge. Whatever it is, it's forming when the OEX is in a congestion zone, and so may have little significance.

Jeff Bailey : 8/15/2005 1:21:16 PM

Correction Alert for the Semiconductor Index (SOX.X) WEEKLY Pivot levels. Correct levels at this Link

SOX.X 467.99 +1.11% here.

Jeff Bailey : 8/15/2005 1:13:01 PM

Regional Bank HOLDRs (AMEX:RKH) $135.81 +0.36% Link ... did get some action (60:191) in the Jan $135 Calls (RKH-AG) just after 10:00 AM EDT at $4.50 (50) and $4.40 (10)

Jeff Bailey : 8/15/2005 1:09:29 PM

01:00 Internals found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 8/15/2005 1:05:54 PM

Stepping away for 10 minutes.

Jeff Bailey : 8/15/2005 1:02:13 PM

01:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 8/15/2005 1:02:18 PM

The OEX approaches the descending trendline off last week's high and the 30-minute 100/130-ema's, now at 572.32-572.51. The just-completed 30-minute candle was a shooting star that shot up to that resistance and pulled back. Now bears want to see downside follow-through, but should remember that reversal signals don't always have a lot of significance when they come inside congestion. Bulls want an upside move above this resistance.

Linda Piazza : 8/15/2005 12:59:19 PM

Like the Wilshire 5000, the SOX dipped below its 30-sma today, as it had Friday. Also like the Wilshire 5000, it now rises back above it, but rises through that descending regression channel. Hasn't broke out to the upside yet, but it's been testing the underside of the resistance that will delineate a breakout.

Jeff Bailey : 8/15/2005 12:59:56 PM

Beacon Power (BCON) $3.40 +18.46% Link ... percentage gainer and #12 most active at mid-session. Company reported Q2 revenue of $318,000, up 152% vs. year ago. Bottom line found a loss of $0.04 per share. The company said "With field testing of the first prototype Smart Energy Matrix imminent, and the expected shipment of our second system to New York in the fall, we're beginning to see interest in this demonstration from energy officials and experts around the country."

Tab Gilles : 8/15/2005 12:51:14 PM

True Jeff. Link

Linda Piazza : 8/15/2005 12:50:16 PM

The SOX has risen all the way up into a test of its 30-minute 100/130-ema's, with those at 468.72 and 469.33, respectively. So far, price/RSI relationships show tentative bearish divergence as these averages are tested from the underside, with these averages also marking the top of the descending regression channel in which the SOX has traded much of this month. The SOX is at 467.19, off the 468.06 HOD. I noted earlier some conflicting bullish and bearish short-term signs on the SOX, and this may be an important test to watch. A descending trendline off the August high crosses at just over 470. Next historical resistance above that is in the 470.60-471.75 region.

Jeff Bailey : 8/15/2005 12:48:42 PM

Dow Transports (TRAN) 3,749 +0.02% Link ... struggle with trending higher 21-day SMA (3,755) resistance. Components at this Link ... President Bush saying he does not plan to intervene to avert a possible strike by mechanics at Northwest (NWAC).

Jonathan Levinson : 8/15/2005 12:48:04 PM

QQQQ's 30 min cycle has reversed to the upside from the midpoint of its range, while the short cycle within it has maxxed out. If this is a bull flag, then the upside target would be in the 39.70ish area, high enough to threaten the daily cycle downphase. But the short cycle indicators are due for a rollover. Bears would look to enter on a break below 39.45, which supported the last bounce.

Jeff Bailey : 8/15/2005 12:36:02 PM

Time Warner (TWX) $18.53 +1.58% Link ... made note of stock's strength several sessions ago. Today, financier Carl Icahn saying he plans to acquire more than $500 million of TWX shares with Icahn said to be organizing an investor group that could call for the break up of the media conglomerate.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/15/2005 12:35:56 PM

QQQQ - Exit Point Alert -

Stopped Out QQQQ at 39.55.

Linda Piazza : 8/15/2005 12:35:34 PM

After testing lower support of the nested Keltner channel with boundaries now from 568.59 to 573.17, the OEX did mount a more effective bounce from that support than it had looked as if it might do, but I've been warning since it began bouncing that this was not what bears wanted. They especially don't want a breakout above the descending trendline off Wednesday's high, a trendline the SOX has already broken above to the upside, with that trendline for the OEX now at about 572.65. Further resistance is at 573.18, an important channel line. I'd wait for a 15-minute close above that channel line before I believed in an upside breakout, and even then, I'd be watchful for a quick turnaround.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/15/2005 12:32:34 PM

Session low for crude oil at 65.95, -.90.

Linda Piazza : 8/15/2005 12:32:22 PM

Benchmarking impressions: Big push on the advdec line, above Keltner resistance. If that breakout can be sustained, a higher push, up toward a new target of 2291 might be possible. The question is whehter it can be sustained, of course.

Tab Gilles : 8/15/2005 12:30:48 PM

Time Warner (TWX) On Friday I posted this chart of TWX. Link Today's news of Icahn looking to have TWX split the company up was a surprise, although Jim Cramer has mentioned that the parts are worth more than the sum, along with MO. Link Link Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/15/2005 12:31:12 PM

Futures Benchmark from 08/05/05 settlement found at this Link ... see 12:25:10 ... "when in doubt, get out with profit if you've got it." As losses mount elsewhere.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/15/2005 12:29:36 PM

QQQQ - Entry Point Alert -

Short QQQQ at 39.48, stop 39.55.

This should be it for now, as price tests S2 and fails above upper 30 min channel resistance.

Jeff Bailey : 8/15/2005 12:28:02 PM

Buy Program Premium ... DIA $106.37, SPX 1,232.91, QQQQ $39.47

Jeff Bailey : 8/15/2005 12:25:10 PM

QQQQ $39.40 +0.48% ... there isn't a bank in the bunch. Shorts look to be on the move. From futures benchmarking of 08/05/05, this would be the only short trade still holding a gain.

Jeff Bailey : 8/15/2005 12:24:15 PM

S&P 500 Index (SPX.X) 1,231.71 +0.10% ...

Jeff Bailey : 8/15/2005 12:23:54 PM

S&P Banks (BIX.X) 355.33 +0.26% ... Trades to session high and WEEKLY Pivot.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/15/2005 12:23:15 PM

The short cycle indicators are digging deeper into overbought territory, price testing upper 30 min keltner resistance. Above 39.42 will be the beginning of a trending move if it holds for 5 mins or better.

Linda Piazza : 8/15/2005 12:20:17 PM

Benchmarking impressions: the advdec line will face resistance soon, at about 30, with the advdec (QCharts version) at -130 as I type. A breakout above the zero line that's sustained could see a higher push, up toward 2250.

Jeff Bailey : 8/15/2005 12:17:55 PM

SanDisk (SNDK) $37.19 +1.77% Link ... continues to impress.

Linda Piazza : 8/15/2005 12:17:23 PM

SOX testing its previous HOD, at 465.27 and with the SOX a little above it at 465.37.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/15/2005 12:15:54 PM

Volume breadth goes positive on the exchanges as price pops to new highs across the board.

Linda Piazza : 8/15/2005 12:15:33 PM

Next resistance for the OEX is from 570.80-571.01 on 15-minute closes, with the OEX at 570.66. Next resistance above that at 571.77 and then 572.97, near the descending trendline off Wednesday's high.

Jeff Bailey : 8/15/2005 12:15:12 PM

Disk Drive Index (DDX.X) 116.11 +1.85% Link ... percentage gainer in U.S. Market Watch. Trades above its 50-day SMA (113.80) and shorter-term 21-day SMA (115.41) after recent test of trending higher 200-day SMA (112.77) last week. Link

Jonathan Levinson : 8/15/2005 12:12:39 PM

Session high for QQQQ at 39.28, testing descending resistance. 30 and 60 min resistance line up at 39.35, but bulls need to see a break of 39.42.

Jeff Bailey : 8/15/2005 12:08:30 PM

12:00 Internals found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 8/15/2005 12:06:32 PM

DWC breaking back above the 30-sma again after today dipping below it, as it did Friday. It's not far above it, however, and the DWC's climb off today's low looks corrective.

Jeff Bailey : 8/15/2005 12:02:16 PM

12:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 8/15/2005 12:01:19 PM

Zoomed out to show the descending trendline being tested on QQQQ here. 5-day 100-tick view compressed at this Link The equivalent trendline was broken earlier this AM on the SOX, as noted by Linda at the time.

Jeff Bailey : 8/15/2005 11:59:58 AM

Air Methods (AIRM) $9.97 -1.18% Link ... the emergency transport prider saying it has entered into a pact to buy six (6) helicopters for $23 million.

Linda Piazza : 8/15/2005 11:56:26 AM

Markets are giving us as few clues as possible this morning. I turned to the TRAN, hoping to find some first clues from this sometimes fast-moving index. On the Keltner chart, however, it's just cycling up from Keltner support at 3718.74 on 15-minute closes, currently at 3732.31. Like the OEX, the TRAN has often been contained by a Keltner channel currently from 3718.74 to 3757.14, mostly just cycling back and forth between the channel's parameters. No clues there.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/15/2005 11:53:57 AM

Volume breadth -1.37:1 on the NYSE, -1.13:1 on the Nasdaq.

Jeff Bailey : 8/15/2005 11:46:58 AM

S&P Banks Index (BIX.X) with WEEKLY/MONTHLY Pivot retracement at this Link ... Overlapping resistance at 359, if broken, bulls will have a BearBQ. Bulls need to defend WEEKLY S1.

10-year yield ($TNX.X) up 2.6 bp at 4.264%.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/15/2005 11:45:03 AM

The short cycle has rolled over from below overbought territory, more of a drift than a reversal. The 30 and 60 min channels continue to move sideways, with 30 min channel support narrowed to 39.05, resistance holding at 39.32 QQQQ.

Linda Piazza : 8/15/2005 11:42:04 AM

The OEX is still rattling around inside that Keltner channel that's been containing most movements for so long. On the bearish side of the ledger, it's producing lower highs. On the bullish side, the formation since late Thursday may be a falling wedge, and those are considered bullish formations. I don't personally believe that wedges have had strong predictive abilities as to the direction of the breakout for some time now, but it's just difficult to find anything to say about the OEX except that it's chopping around inside that channel.

Linda Piazza : 8/15/2005 11:35:45 AM

The SOX is retesting that trendline off last week's high, slipping a little below it, and not, so far, able to maintain its breakout above that trendline.

Linda Piazza : 8/15/2005 11:34:04 AM

AT 12,264.14 as I type, the Wilshire 5000 tests its 30-sma at 12,266.40. As it did Friday, the DWC has dipped beneath this important average, but it's trying to hold the support of that average. DWC 12,190-12,200 is next support beneath that, but if that fails, the 50-sma at 12,134.64 may be a target. If the DWC bounces instead, it's bouncing back into a consolidation pattern from this month.

Tab Gilles : 8/15/2005 11:29:31 AM

Taking a look at the BDI (Baltic Dry Index), primarily driven by the iron ore trade to feed China's rapidly expanding steel industry, reached an all-time high last December, but has since declined and tested the Dec 2000 high. In its role as a leading indicator of industrial production, this decline as a warning of a slowdown in China. Here are several charts... Link Link Link Link Link Link

Jonathan Levinson : 8/15/2005 11:24:53 AM

QQQQ has yet to trade even 1/4 of Friday's volume.

Jeff Bailey : 8/15/2005 11:24:52 AM

10 Most Active ... CSCO $17.68 -0.67%, QQQQ $39.20 -0.02%, AAPL $47.73 +3.53%, ORCL $13.24 -0.45%, MSFT $26.93 -0.18%, DELL $36.42 -0.60%, SPY $123.10 +0.01%, INTC $26.34 +0.11%, TWX $18.47 +1.31%, NT $3.28 -1.80%

Linda Piazza : 8/15/2005 11:20:54 AM

After breaking above the descending trendline off last week's high, the SOX immediately comes back to retest that trendline. A lot of chopping around and indecision this morning.

Linda Piazza : 8/15/2005 11:19:52 AM

The OEX moved a bit higher than bears would have liked, moving up to test 570. It's at 570.06 as I type.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/15/2005 11:15:49 AM

The USD Index is strong today, gold, silver, oil and bonds weak. Equities hold green, but just barely.

Jeff Bailey : 8/15/2005 11:15:32 AM

Apple Computer (AAPL) $47.68 +3.42% Link ... new 52-weeker at the NASDAQ with Piper Jaffray making positive comments.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/15/2005 11:13:12 AM

The Fed's coupon pass is for a total of 1.39B, deliverable tomorrow.

Jeff Bailey : 8/15/2005 11:12:31 AM

11:00 Internals found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 8/15/2005 11:05:33 AM

The short cycles are running up with the price, and the 30 min cycle, which had been staleld and rolling over, is stalled again. It should turn back up after about 10 minutes if it holds above 39.17. But intraday direction remains up for grabs, volume breadth now only slightly negative and total volume very light.

Jeff Bailey : 8/15/2005 11:05:14 AM

11:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 8/15/2005 11:02:06 AM

The SOX just closed a 15-minute period slightly above the descending trendline off last week's high. If it continues to climb, watch the 30-minute 100/130-ema's, at 468.89 and 469.48. They're at the top of a descending regression channels that's been in place most of this month.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/15/2005 11:00:43 AM

Session high for QQQQ at 39.24. 30 min channel resistance is up to 39.30, 60 min channel resistance at 39.35.

Linda Piazza : 8/15/2005 10:59:19 AM

SOX still testing the descending trendline off last week's high, with that trendline at about the current 463.95 SOX level. Next Keltner resistance at 466.93-467.62 on 15-minute closes.

Linda Piazza : 8/15/2005 10:58:32 AM

Benchmarking impressions: The advdec line is now clinging to Keltner S/R near the current -1522 level.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/15/2005 10:52:17 AM

The Fed has announced a coupon pass to follow up its 9.5B overnight repo- I guess the high stop out rate was the tipoff. No amount has been announced yet, and the money's only deliverable tomorrow, but the addition of permanent liquidity should be supportive to bonds and/or stock markets.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/15/2005 10:47:44 AM

Session low for ten year notes at 110 57/64, TNX up 3.2 bps at 4.27%.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/15/2005 10:45:31 AM

Volume breadth remains negative on both exchanges despite the bounce, -1.46:1 on the NYSE, -1.32:1 on the Nasdaq.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/15/2005 10:42:33 AM

Session low for ten year notes at 110 29/32 as QQQQ shoots back up above 72 SMA resistance at 39.18, back to the opening highs at 39.20-.22.

Jeff Bailey : 8/15/2005 10:38:37 AM

Goodrich Petroleum (GDP) $20.56 -8.09% Link ... percentage loser at the big board after the Houston-based oil and gas producer reported a Q2 loss of $603,000, or $-0.03 a share, which was down from a profit of $2.7 million, or $0.13 a share in the same period a year ago. Results included the payment of $158,000 in preferred stock dividends in both quarters.

Consensus was for the company to have earned $0.09 a share.

The company said that while revenue jumped 45% to $13.3 million from $9.2 million last year, as oil and gas production volumes increased by 17% due to recent successful well completions, bottom line results were hurt as operating expenses jumped 90% to $13.3 million as depletion, depreciation and amortization expenses more than doubled to $5.7 million from $2.4 million.

Linda Piazza : 8/15/2005 10:36:30 AM

The OEX's rise from Keltner support is tepid, to say the least. Bears want to see the OEX roll over again, or at least find resistance at a Keltner line currently at 569.84.

Linda Piazza : 8/15/2005 10:31:37 AM

RUT just off its LOD.

Jeff Bailey : 8/15/2005 10:31:27 AM

Taser Intl. (TASR) $9.90 +5.88% Link ... higher after the stun gun maker said that a filed test by the Columbus, Ohio, police department showed that tasers reduce the need to use deadly force and lower all-around injuries. The study was conducted over a 6-month period with Columbus police using tasers in 14 cases to incapacitate subjects where deadly force would have been justified.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/15/2005 10:31:16 AM

Volume is as weak as one would expect in this directionless slop, 14.5M QQQQ shares traded so far today.

Linda Piazza : 8/15/2005 10:30:56 AM

OEX still trying to steady at Keltner support at 568.68, and bears still wish it wouldn't, as that presents the possibility of it rolling back up through that same old channel again.

Jeff Bailey : 8/15/2005 10:27:56 AM

Current OPEN MM Profiles found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 8/15/2005 10:25:51 AM

Session low for GE, -.22 at 34.03. DAL -14.29% at 1.38.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/15/2005 10:24:36 AM

Volume breadth -2.06:1 for the NYSE, -1.58:1 for the Nasdaq.

Linda Piazza : 8/15/2005 10:24:18 AM

The OEX hit Keltner support at 568.68 on 15-minute closes, with the LOD at 568.71. It now tries to bounce, but it isn't much of a bounce yet. Still, bears would really like to see the OEX push lower through that support and stay there to avoid a possible bullish falling wedge building on the 15-minute chart. First resistance at 570.02.

Jeff Bailey : 8/15/2005 10:24:15 AM

Red Robin Gourmet Burgers (RRGB) $46.89 +2.94% Link ... upgraded at Wachovia to "outperform" from "market perform."

On Friday, Bear Stearns, Oppenheimer and BB&T Capital Markets came with downgrades.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/15/2005 10:19:53 AM

QQQQ 100-tick chart updated at this Link

Linda Piazza : 8/15/2005 10:17:59 AM

Benchmarking impressions: So far, Keltner support is not holding, but the new 15-minute period has just begun and the advdec line could bounce. A failure to bounce makes it look vulnerable to a much deeper drop to -2580 or -2750.

Jeff Bailey : 8/15/2005 10:17:40 AM

Dow Jones Co. (DJ) $40.96 +10.55% Link ... higher on renewed speculation that members of its controlling shareholder family are pressing for a sale of the Wall Street Journal publisher.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/15/2005 10:16:58 AM

Session high for oil at 66.95.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/15/2005 10:16:18 AM

QQQQ tests 39.10 again, breaking it now. Below 38.95 would finally break the range and reestablish the daily cycle downphase.

Linda Piazza : 8/15/2005 10:14:41 AM

OEX approaching 568.77 potential Keltner support. This support is the bottom support of the Keltner channel that's mostly contained the OEX as it's been chopping around. Bears need to have profit-protecting plans in place right now, but, again, those plans might incorporate a way to participate in further downside if this is going to be the day everything breaks loose to the downside. Those who might have entered a bearish position this morning on the test of those trendlines and apparent rollover beneath them really need to see this Keltner support violated on a 15-minute close.

Jeff Bailey : 8/15/2005 10:11:28 AM

Friday's Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/15/2005 10:10:48 AM

10:00 Internals found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 8/15/2005 10:09:31 AM

Benchmarking impressions: Advdec line approaching potential support at -1364 and -1559. Take this information with a grain of salt, however. The outside boundaries of the Keltner channels do appear to have some relevance on tests, but the inside support/resistance lines sometimes do, but may be somewhat less reliable.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/15/2005 10:08:48 AM

Crude oil reopens, -.375 at 66.525.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/15/2005 10:06:02 AM

DAL -13.66% at 1.39 on news that it may be preparing for bankruptcy, and GE, one of its creditors, is down 16 cents to 34.09.

Linda Piazza : 8/15/2005 10:03:18 AM

SOX trying to rise again. As I mentioned last week, the SOX has been building a descending regression channel since early in August. As Jim pointed out this weekend, this channel's resistance is now reinforced by the presence of the 30-minute 100/130-ema's, at 469.21 and 469.75, respectively. One troublesome factor for bears is that on this round through the descending channel, the SOX did not yet touch bottom support. In other words, other support is propping it up, keeping it from falling all the way through the channel, at least so far. The SOX instead is trading a few points either side of the midline of that channel, with the midline now at about 461.95. The SOX is spending some time today testing the descending trendline off last week's 8/10 high, and bears would like to see that resistance, now at about 464.50, hold, sending the SOX lower again.

Jeff Bailey : 8/15/2005 10:01:59 AM

10:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 8/15/2005 9:59:46 AM

Stepping away for 10 minutes.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/15/2005 9:56:45 AM

Session low for ten year notes at 110 29/32, TNX up 3.2 bps at 4.27%.

Jeff Bailey : 8/15/2005 9:56:15 AM

Knightsbridge Tankers (VLCCF) $40.00 -6.23% Link ... weaker after reporting Q2 results late Friday. Reported net income of $7.4 million, or $0.43 per share. Average daily time charter equivalents ("TCEs") earned by the company's five VLCCs was $38,900 compared with $56,900 in the immediately preceding quarter. The company said the reduced earnings reflect the continued weakening of the tanker market in the first half of 2005 compared with the exceptionally high rates experienced in the fourth quarter of 2004. Net interest expense for the quarter was $1.0 million (2004 comparable quarter: $2.4 million) and at June 30, 2005, all of the Company's debt is floating rate debt. As of August 8, 2005, the company said it has an average cash breakeven rate for its vessels of $16,113.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/15/2005 9:56:05 AM

A generous 9.5B overnight repo from the Fed results in a 3B net add. However, the stop out rate at 3.55 suggests that the money was in demand, which in turn suggests a downward bias on a liquidity basis despite the net repo add. We'll see which prevails, based on the 38.95-39.42 QQQQ range.

Linda Piazza : 8/15/2005 9:54:44 AM

The RUT's 240-minute 100/130-ema's are at 654.20 and 648.93, respectively, with the RUT at 658.05. Bears need to see the RUT below those averages to confirm the breakdown out of the H&S visible on that 240-minute chart.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/15/2005 9:54:15 AM

Another retest of the 39.10 premarket low just held for QQQQ. The short cycle downphase has stalled, as have the 30 and 60 min cycle upphases. No directional bias whatsoever on an intraday basis.

Linda Piazza : 8/15/2005 9:53:13 AM

OEX approaching 569.42 support, with the more important support at 568.87 on 15-minute closes. Bears want that support to break.

Linda Piazza : 8/15/2005 9:52:35 AM

Benchmarking impressions: the advdec line attempted a breakout this morning, but instead, 15-minute Keltner resistance held and the advdec line turns down again. Potential target and support at -1699 through -1380, with the advdec line at -1021 as I type. Don't trade on this information.

Linda Piazza : 8/15/2005 9:50:52 AM

The RLX has been testing the 30-minute 100/130-ema's, located at the bottom of its former long-term ascending regression channel. Bears obviously want the RLX to roll over at those averages, at 470.94 and 471.83, respectively, and bulls obviously want a break back inside that formation. So far, the RLX is pulling back from that test, but it hasn't confirmed by a dip below Friday's low at 464.14. The RLX is at 468.76 as I type.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/15/2005 9:50:45 AM

Awaiting news on the Fed's disposition of its expiring 6.5B weekend repo.

Jeff Bailey : 8/15/2005 9:50:44 AM

Activision (ATVI) $20.54 +4.63% Link ... gapped higher from Friday's $19.60 close with Bear Stearns upgrading and Bank of America raising their bullish target to $28.

After generating a double top buy signal in June at $18, the resulting bullish vertical count hints at $27.00. Recent spread triple top buy signal at $19.00 has demand firmly in control.

Linda Piazza : 8/15/2005 9:45:21 AM

So far, first Keltner resistance at 570.70 is holding on the OEX, with a former supporting line from Wednesday at about that level and with another from last Monday nestled deeper into Keltner resistance, ranging up to 572.14. So far, then, the OEX fails the trendline test and there's a tentative rollover from that trendline, but then there's that important 568.89 support to watch. The OEX's pattern has been churning so much that it's difficult to impossible to predict whether this time will be the time that support breaks. This could be part of more chop or part of something bigger and it's just impossible to tell at this point.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/15/2005 9:44:26 AM

Gold recovers from its earlier lows, down 3.3 at 445 here. The 444.30 low confirms former resistance turned support at 444, below which 442 is next lighter support. A daily cycle downphase will kick in on a close below 442.

Linda Piazza : 8/15/2005 9:41:06 AM

This morning, the SOX rose to test the descending trendline off Wednesday's high, at about 464.80, with the SOX HOD at 464.66 so far. There's 15-minute Keltner resistance at 463.58 on 15-minute closes, with the SOX having dropped back to 463.57 as I type and with about 5 minutes to go in this 15-minute period.

Jeff Bailey : 8/15/2005 9:38:43 AM

Agilent Technologies (A) $30.50 +15.10% Link ... percentage gainer at the big board after the company said it will sell it semiconductor unit to two buyout firms for $2.66 billion and cut 1,300 jobs as part of a restructuring. The company said it plans to use the proceeds to fund a $4 billion stock repurchase program.

Linda Piazza : 8/15/2005 9:37:09 AM

The OEX continued lower at the open, testing 570. The OEX Friday rose to test the former supporting trendline off last Monday's low and now continues the downturn from that trendline again, but this morning's drop is minimal so far and the OEX is now rising to retest that trendline. That trendline is now at about 571.52, with 15-minute Keltner support extending up to 571.83 on a 15-minute closing basis. Bears would like to see this next trendline test see the OEX roll over again, or, failing that, would like to see the descending trendline off last Wednesday's high hold as resistance. First Keltner support at 569.53 and then the stronger support, historically at least, is at 568.93. A break below that on a 15-minute basis would set up a downside targt of 566.73, but the OEX has an iffy history with regards to breakout targets over the last month or so.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/15/2005 9:34:52 AM

Volume breadth -1.04:1 on the NYSE and -1.14:1 on the Nasdaq at the open.

Linda Piazza : 8/15/2005 9:31:41 AM

SOX slightly lower this morning, in keeping with a downturn from the 30-minute 21-ema, at 463.32.

Jeff Bailey : 8/15/2005 9:29:24 AM

The S&P 500 (SPX.X) Link remains in "bull confirmed" status with 73.2% Link of this broad equity market's components showing a "buy signal" associated with their point and figure chart. From the WEEKLY/MONTHLY Pivot retracement, 1,220 is identified as near-term support, 1,235-36 and 1,245 as tentative resistance. Link

Linda Piazza : 8/15/2005 9:15:00 AM

Friday, the OEX sank down to end the day just above daily Keltner support at 570.12 on daily closes, with the OEX closing at 570.65. Although the day's candle shadow spiked higher, the day's candle body spanned the distance from that support to the daily resistance at 572.82 on daily closes. The OEX tested that particular Keltner support and resistance most of the week. As it did so, it appeared to weaken both resistance and support, nudging lines this way and that and scattering them. The OEX is doing its thing again, moving, consolidating a loooong time, then repeating the process.

To complicate matters, the OEX ended the day in the middle of the 15-minute Keltner channel that has contained most movements for a long while, with those channel boundaries now at 568.94 on the bottom and 573.80 on the top. However, there are some signs of weakening. The OEX could not get back above the descending trendline off Wednesday's high, with that trendline at 573.40. Each approach to the top of the Keltner channel has stopped short at a greater distance away from the top channel line. If that continues, a downside break becomes more likely. So, barring a 15-minute close above the Keltner channel line now at 573.80, it's probably safer to enter bearish positions on rollovers near the top of the channel than it is to buy tests of the lower channel line. With the OEX ending Friday near the middle of the channel, no immediate new entries present themselves this morning.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/15/2005 9:10:00 AM

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Delta Airlines' (DAL: news, chart, profile) shares slumped almost 11% to $1.44 on Instinet early Monday. The move follows a report in The New York Times over the weekend that stated the company has started to arrange the financing necessary to file for bankruptcy protection. The article, which cited people with direct knowledge of the situation, said Delta is holding talks with lenders such as General Electric's (GE: news, chart, profile) GE Commercial Finance unit.

GE is down .03 at 34.22 in premarket trading. DAL is quoted -.08 from its 1.61 close at 1.53 on Island.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/15/2005 9:03:14 AM







Jonathan Levinson : 8/15/2005 8:47:15 AM

Bond yields have extended their gains, TNX now +2.9 bps at 4.267%. QQQQ is down .08 at 39.13. bouncing from a spike to 39.10.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/15/2005 8:32:55 AM







Jonathan Levinson : 8/15/2005 8:26:05 AM

Equities have pulled back with the opening of the cash bond market, with ten year note yields up 1.4 bps at 4.252% as we await the Empire State Index.

QQQQ remains in a synchronous 30/60 min cycle upphase from Friday afternoon, but the post-4PM selloff took the spring out of its stride. The short cycle indicators rolled over on that selloff, and currently QQQQ is holding at the top of Friday's pre-3PM range.

I agree with Marc in that 39, or rather 38.95-39.00 support, will be defended, and that if it lets go, the bullish exodus could produce a sustained move lower. The only bullish scenario from here starts on a violation of the downtrend from the past 2 weeks, on a break above 39.42 (30 min closing basis).

Jonathan Levinson : 8/15/2005 8:08:53 AM

LONDON (MarketWatch) -- Merrill Lynch cut its price target on mortgage lender Fannie Mae (FNM: news, chart, profile) to $64 from $76.50, saying it believes investors will view the shares more conservatively as the political backdrop, challenging fundamentals and accounting uncertainty could continue to weigh on the company longer than previously anticipated. The broker also lowered its 2006 earnings estimates to $6.05 from $6.75 a share.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/15/2005 7:35:06 AM

Equities are up, ES trading 1232, NQ 1594.5, YM 10610 and QQQQ flat at 39.20. Gold is down 3.7 to 444.60, silver -.012 to 7.082, ten year notes -3/32 to 111 5/32 and crude oil is down 25 cents to 66.60.

We await the 8:30 release of the Empire State Index, est. 20.

Linda Piazza : 8/15/2005 7:22:15 AM

Good morning. Last night, the Nikkei made an early run toward last week's high, but couldn't quite reach it and fell back into negative territory. Other Asian markets were mixed. European markets trade timidly, either side of the flat-line, but are currently positive. Our futures are modestly higher. As of 7:10 EST, gold was lower by $3.50, and crude, down by $0.46 to $66.40. More detail about Asian and European markets follows in succeeding paragraphs.

In earliest trading, the Nikkei climbed toward Friday's 12,324.43 high, with steelmakers leading the charge higher. A newspaper article had speculated that increasing demand was leading steelmakers to up their production of high-quality steel products. Even in early trading, when the Nikkei was still making that charge higher, exporters as a group didn't fare so well, however, pressured by a rising yen against the dollar. Rising fuel costs were also impacting some companies, such as Skymark Airlines Co., with that carrier reporting a first-quarter loss. The Nikkei was to stop almost 16 points shy of last week's high, and then to tumble into negative territory. It did manage to close off its low of the day, and closed lower by only 5.13 points or 0.04%, at 12,256.55. Japan's summer obon holidays approach, but I have not been able to locate a calendar that gives the date of those holidays.

July sales for Tokyo department stores rose 1.2% year over year, up from June's 1.1% decline. Clothing and accessories sales helped this figure to achieve its first year-over-year rise in six months. Today, Koizumi, whose ratings have been climbing again, apologized for Japan's acts during periods of colonization and war. This comes ahead of the July 15 anniversary of Japan's WWII surrender and amidst the possibility of resumed anti-Japanese protests in China, but might not have been a popular act for Koizumi to make among some in his own country.

Other Asian markets were mixed. The Taiwan Weighted lost 1.67%, but South Korea's Kospi gained 0.57%. Singapore's Straits Times fell 1.02%, but Hong Kong's Hang Seng rose 0.10%. China's Shanghai Composite gained 1.63%.

European markets trade cautiously. Although European bourses have seen their biggest rallies since 1998, corporate profits are rising at the expense of the consumer, so that the economies are not being boosted, according to a Bloomberg article. Consumers are more reluctant to spend as costs eat into their salaries and news of job eliminations add to their insecurity. German elections are scheduled for September 18, and the country's financial minister touts a rise in tax revenue that he attributes to increasing domestic demand. Some would argue, however, that consumers are just rushing purchases ahead of a possible opposition win, with taxes more likely to increase if that should occur. In other economic news, London's retail sales showed a drop of 8.9% year over year in July among stores open at least a year. This occurred as the U.K. reacted to the bombings, and was the steepest decline since the London Retail Consortium and KPMG began keeping figures in 2002. July's Retail Sales will be released Thursday, and those figures will be closely watched. Some other economic releases, including services PMI, had not shown an impact by those bombings.

In other news, a Sunday report revealed more information about a probe into Commerzbank. In a Wall Street Journal article, the company said that Chief Executive Klaus-Peter Mueller is being investigated for possible money-laundering activities that occurred when he was in charge of eastern European operations. The activities reportedly involved a Russian telecommunications investment in the late 1990s, but the bank expects a complete vindication of this officer. Commerzbank was falling in early trading. In other news, there was speculation that Wal-Mart and European retailer Carrefour had held talks within the last 30 days, with that report unclear as to whether Wal-Mart might be interested in buying some Carrefour stores or the entire company. Carrefour was gaining in early trading, although such speculation has arisen before without any action being taken. Telecommunications company O2 was lower as reports speculated that bid talks had broken down. The London Stock Exchange benefited from news that it's been approached. The U.K.'s Xstrata gained after it agreed to buy a stake in Falconbridge. Philips will buy a stake in Agilent.

As of 7:07 EST, the FTSE 100 was higher by 6.00 points or 0.11%, at 5,351.80. The CAC 40 was higher by 1.61 points or 0.04%, at 4,478.09. The DAX was higher by 2.59 points or 0.05%, at 4,939.92.

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