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Jeff Bailey : 8/18/2005 10:53:07 PM

Here's something I like to do when a bullish % indicator reverses up, or down. I like to look at the BULLISH % Indicator, in this case the NASDAQ-100 Bullish % Link and not the recent low, and high inflection points (34% and 62%).

Then all doctor up a QQQQ chart with two retracement. Conventional (blue) and then a highest close to lowest close (pink). I'll also mark "the days" that reversal readings were found. Here's that type of chart Link ... On this chart I placed both a 50-day simple moving average and a 50-day exponential moving average. I prefer the simple moving average as I believe each day is as important as any other day. The exponential tends to discount history and put more emphasis on the near-term.

Now, if I were to get as bearish as I could possibly get, I'd say maximum downside is $36.56-$36.75.

If the NASDAQ NH/NL ratios (from our intra-day internals) were anywhere close to 30% (more oversold) and the QQQQ was traded near $36.50, I'd become very, very bullish.

With short interest at 12-month highs, and the QQQQ never breaking below the current necline, and the NASDAQ NH/NL ratios reverse up and show renewed bullish leadership, I'd become very, very, very bullish.

If the QQQQ holds neckline support, the NASDAQ NH/NL ratios reverse up and signal renewed bullish leadership, and the NASDAQ-100 Bullish % ($BPNDX) reverse back higher to "bull confirmed" status, I'd become very, very, very, very, very, very, very bullish.

OI Technical Staff : 8/18/2005 9:59:59 PM

The Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

Disclaimer: Stocks discussed in the Market Monitor are for educational purposes only and any analysis is not meant to imply a recommendation for or against that stock. The analysts in this forum as on any other website are prohibited by the SEC from giving any specific advice to ANY individual trader. All information posted is for ALL readers and is not meant to be directed to any individual. Our analysts cannot answer any email questions regarding any specific stock. Please do not ask and please do not take offense if requests are denied.

Results posted in the Market Monitor are hypothetical and OIN does not claim that any reader achieved these exact results. Due to the lag time between research, writing, posting, uploading, reading and execution there will be differences between the actual signal given and the fill achieved by the reader. Fills may be better or worse but in most cases they will be different. The writers will make every effort to give advance notice of intended signals and indicate potential price targets. Your individual results may vary depending on your activity level and aggressiveness. This forum is intended as an education service only. Trading involves risk and should not be attempted by anyone not ready to accept this risk. By acting on any signal in this forum you agree and personally accept this risk.

Jeff Bailey : 8/18/2005 8:38:47 PM

Pivot Matrix for tomorrow at this Link .... Not every trader is a "Pivot Level" trader. However, I do like to monitor them for buy/sell action from computers. THERE IS NO WAY I would have bought the NQ at DAILY S1 "Ping!" but you can imagine there was a computer buying it. When you see that type of action, then be alert!

Now... Get your "dynamic" retracement set up and divide the range into levels.

The general rules are during weakness (when NQ traded down to DAILY S1) is that the NQ "should not retrace more then 1/2 (50%) or 61.8% of the current day's range. Go ahead... TEST IT.

Now... see where Marc made his bullish profile? It came AFTER the NQ had retraced 80.9% of the then "dynamic range." See how the NQ then started to "bid" the 50%? As if MARKET PARTICIPANTS were shifting to a bullish bias at 1,580? Once the top of the then day's range was taken out, the NQ "was gone." In my opinion, the only way an NQ trader could have "picked the top" at 1,590 was if they were monitoring the influence the YM "zone of resistance" might have (see my 1:33:42 FM Post).

Jeff Bailey : 8/18/2005 5:33:13 PM

Mr. Kudlow ... if a company EVER said they were going to come to market with a secondary offering in order to provide a dividend, I'd sell any long position I had, then short the heck out of the stock.

Dilute me, then pay me a dividend? No thank you.

Jeff Bailey : 8/18/2005 5:29:45 PM

Closing U.S. Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/18/2005 5:14:37 PM

Closing Internals found at this Link

Bullish % Status Change for the NASDAQ-100 Bullish % ($BPNDX) Link which reversed lower to "bull correction" status on Wednesday.

Some internal weakening here, where the bull market takes a rest.

Traders/investors should immediately check their positons for TREND and RELATIVE STRENGTH.

Selling out the money covered calls, or buying protective puts in weaker names a bullish investor may hold in their account with a longer-term view is strongly suggested.

Conventional 20-point box of the NDX.X at this Link

10-point box of NDX.X at this Link

QQQQ with $0.25 box Link gets pretty close to NDX.X 10-point.

Jeff Bailey : 8/18/2005 4:18:51 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles found at this Link ... Today's Activity ... Sold two (2) covered calls in the WLP Sep. $75 Call (WLP-IO) at the bid of $1.00. No stop on these, but would buy back for $0.05 if traded while I'm out on vacation (09/01-09/11).

Day traded full position long the shares of Synopsys (SNPS) at the offer of $18.99, stopped at $18.80 ($-0.19, or -1.00%).

Jeff Bailey : 8/18/2005 4:01:23 PM

Sell Program Premium ... DIA $105.69, SPY $122.01

Linda Piazza : 8/18/2005 3:34:36 PM

Lower was the next direction for the OEX, but not much lower, or not yet. The OEX is ringed round with Keltner resistance and support, looking about equal in strength, so there's no prediction as to next direction.

Linda Piazza : 8/18/2005 3:18:20 PM

Keltner resistance at 567.84 on 15-minute closes appears to be holding on the OEX, at least for now, but beginning now, I'm not going to make any guesses about next direciton. It looks as if next direction should be down, but this is late in the day on opex Thursday and anything can happen.

Jeff Bailey : 8/18/2005 3:13:54 PM

Central European Distribution (CEDC) $40.00 Link ... had an alert set here with note "see 07/11/05 01:57:36 MM)

Jonathan Levinson : 8/18/2005 3:09:47 PM

QQQQ is net unchanged from this morning's open, pre-open in fact, volume breadth down to -2.10:1 on the Nasdaq and volume overall anemic at 58.3M QQQQs traded so far. 38.77 has held for 4 tests today, and the magnetic pull at 39.00 suggests that it will hold if tested again. If not, it could get ugly as longs cover and shorts pile in. The next lowest fib target would be 38.68. Link

Linda Piazza : 8/18/2005 3:08:43 PM

OEX still coiling.

Jeff Bailey : 8/18/2005 3:04:49 PM

03:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 8/18/2005 2:58:33 PM

The OEX's five-minute chart shows the OEX coiling just above the former ascending trendline off the day's low. Not much to be determined yet. The advdec line's five-minute Keltner chart shows it trying to steady at potential Keltner support and rise to test resistance. Resistance and support look about equally weighted, so although resistance looks soft enough to perhaps allow a retest, it's far from certain that the advdec line can move too much higher.

Jeff Bailey : 8/18/2005 3:00:01 PM

Procter Gamble (PG) $54.57 +2.15% Link ... presses bestlevels of the session. Has been either side of its converging 50-day and 200-day SMAs.

Linda Piazza : 8/18/2005 2:52:09 PM

I've talked about comparisons with the BIX and the OEX. Here are some charts: BIX (Note: annotations should note that the BIX "now" has risk to the bottom, not "not" has risk.): Link OEX: Link

Jonathan Levinson : 8/18/2005 2:49:15 PM

QQQQ chart with intraday fib grid snapped on: Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/18/2005 2:47:54 PM

Bullish day trade stop alert ... for Synopsys (SNPS) $18.80 here.

Jeff Bailey : 8/18/2005 2:42:11 PM

Synopsys (SNPS) $18.83 +10.89% ... After watching the YM/NDX chart comparisons I've been showing traders over in the futures monitor, those gyrations still find SNPS just sitting here. Be al_rt. The most important hour of the trading day is just ahead.

Linda Piazza : 8/18/2005 2:39:42 PM

In typical opex-week style, the OEX jumped right back up to retest today's supporting trendline off the LOD. No terrible damage has been done, but I really can't assure you that the OEX won't just keep climbing and climbing.

Linda Piazza : 8/18/2005 2:32:42 PM

OEX broke the support from today's climb. It's now at Keltner support at 566.63 on 15-minute closes, with next support the bottom support for that same old Keltner channel, with that support now at 565.69. With the 200-sma at 566.21, bears need to know how they'll handle a test of that support. If you entered near the 569-ish rollover a few minutes ago, you might want to take part of your position off the table somewhere between the current level and 565.67, if that's reached, and then lower stops on the rest in case there's another roll up through the channel again.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/18/2005 2:26:14 PM

QQQQ is back below the breakout area, back to its morning range. The upside launch kicked off an overdue 30 min cycle upphase from a nearly overbought corrective short cycle upphase, and then collapsed just as the 30 min cycle up was confirming. The timing was all off on both the upside blast and the downside reversal, and I attribute it to op-ex week distortions. Link

Linda Piazza : 8/18/2005 2:25:52 PM

The OEX is again testing the suport of today's corrective climb. It dipped just below it, but now sits on the trendline, at about 567.43.

Linda Piazza : 8/18/2005 2:21:45 PM

OEX still tests that Keltner support currently at 567.88. It's slightly below it at 567.75, but the 15-minute period hasn't closed yet, and this level supported the OEX on the last 15-minute period. Bears need to see it drop toward 567.07 next Keltner support and then down to 565.82, at which point they'll need to know what they're going to do to protect profits.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/18/2005 2:15:40 PM

Bad tick for QQQQ just printed to 39.10: Link . Currrently, the short cycle downphase has kicked off, and the 30 min channel upphase has stalled in the starting gate. Looks like they don't want to pay out on the 39 calls either.

Linda Piazza : 8/18/2005 2:13:57 PM

The SOX hit the top of its descending regression channel in place since August and the 15-minute 100/130-ema's and turned lower. It's still essentially coiling, however. SOX at 462.04 as I type, with the 15-minute 100/130-ema's at 463.24 and 463.89, respectively, and with the 30- and 60-minute versions just above that.

Jeff Bailey : 8/18/2005 2:12:57 PM

After trading the YM over in the futures monitor yesterday, and watching some of the trade there again today, it just feels like there's an "artificial" blanket on the major indices right now, despite the lower trade in energy. Me thinks option expiration has something to do with this.

Linda Piazza : 8/18/2005 2:10:52 PM

So far, the OEX hasn't broken its bear-flag support nor the Keltner channel support, at 567.88 on 15-minute closes. Bears want to see that happen, or that support might send the OeX higher to test 569-570.20 resistance again.

Jeff Bailey : 8/18/2005 2:10:41 PM

02:00 Internals found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 8/18/2005 2:04:48 PM

Benchmarking impressions: the advdec line tests potential resistance, producing a doji on the last 15-minute period, but it hasn't convincingly rolled lower yet and there's potential support layered beneath it. Could still be a punch up to -225 as that hasn't been ruled out yet. This is all just iffy information, though, as I'm not sure that impressions on the inside of the channels are as relevant as those at the outer boundaries. Didn't work well this morning, for example, as there was never that move below -3000 as the charts suggested might happen. QCharts version of the advdec line is currently at -1098.

Jeff Bailey : 8/18/2005 2:03:00 PM

02:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 8/18/2005 2:01:05 PM

The OEX produced a red candle the last 15-minute period, but it didn't do all it could have to please the bears. It held above Keltner support now at 567.95 on 15-minute closes. Bears need that support to break. OEX at 568.12 as I type.

Jeff Bailey : 8/18/2005 1:59:35 PM

SNPS /NDX 5-minute interval montage. SNPS "in a world all its own" right now. Thought good long should NDX break above WEEKLY S1 earlier today. Might still, but may still need further NDX strength. Chart montage at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 8/18/2005 1:59:16 PM

Volume breadth -1.47:1 for both the NYSE and the Nasdaq.

Linda Piazza : 8/18/2005 1:54:56 PM

So far, the OEX turns down as bears would have wanted after printing a doji at the top of the climb off the day's low, but it hasn't dropped below next Keltner support, now at 567.88 on 15-minute closes. Bears would like to see a close below that level this 15-minute period. The OEX has already done a lot bears don't like, including cycling right back up through that same old channel again. It has, however, held beneath the descending trendline off the 8/09 high and has continued a pattern of Keltner-style bearish divergence. So far.

Jane Fox : 8/18/2005 1:51:03 PM

What were they thinking Dateline WSJ - Oh, that wacky Google. The Web search engine and Wall Street pet lived up to its promise to be a different sort of public company today, announcing a new stock offering that riffed on the numerical value of pi, when it already had a hillock of cash and a squeaky clean balance sheet.

Taking many analysts by surprise, Google said it planned to issue 14,159,265 shares of Class A common stock. If that number looks familiar, you probably paid attention in algebra class; the numerical value of pi, or the ratio of a circle's circumference to its diameter, is 3.14159265, after lopping off an infinity of other digits. This jokey number of shares will raise some serious cash, about $4 billion at today's share price.

Linda Piazza : 8/18/2005 1:47:23 PM

A doji at the top of a climb for the OEX's last 15-minute period. Now the OEX bears want to see follow-through this period, and see a red candle that drops down to and hopefully below next Keltner support at 567.93 on a 15-minute closing basis. OEX at 568.56 as I type.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/18/2005 1:47:18 PM

Ten year note yields -4.5 bps at 4.228%, crude oil -.625 at 62.625.

Jeff Bailey : 8/18/2005 1:45:09 PM

General Electric (GE) $34.20 +0.29% ... sitting on top of its WEEKLY Pivot.

Linda Piazza : 8/18/2005 1:45:01 PM

OEX and advdec line both reaching levels from which they should either roll over or burst through to slightly higher levels, to 570.18 on the OEX and perhaps to -176 on the advdec line. If the OEX breaks above 570.18 on a 15-minute closing basis, then something different than expected is going on and bears need to beware.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/18/2005 1:42:49 PM

Remains to be seen how they feel about the calls.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/18/2005 1:40:33 PM

QQQQ chart at this Link , pulling back from the 30 min keltner breach. The 30 min cycle upphase is in its very early stages, potentially hours' worth of upside bias left. The upside burst had an impulsive feel on high volume. But 39.00 should act as an attactor until Monday, and the short cycle is toppy. Below 39.00, the next test would be at the 38.90 breakout point.

Linda Piazza : 8/18/2005 1:35:00 PM

OEX's descending trendline off the 8/09 high is at about 569.84. The 50-sma is at 569.53, the 10-sma, at 570.39. The top of that same-old Keltner channel is at 570.15 on 15-minute closes, with lower resistance at 569.28 on 15-minute closes. The OEX is approaching a level that should either see a rollover or a punch through to higher values. OEX at 569 as I type.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/18/2005 1:32:17 PM

Session highs across the board, with price breaking 30 min channel resistnace at 39.04 on the largest burst of volume since Tuesday. Link The keltner breach should stop the move, but it's a very risky short until the 30 min cycle indicators have grown toppy.

Jeff Bailey : 8/18/2005 1:30:27 PM

Synopsys (SNPS) $18.86 +11.07% ....

Jeff Bailey : 8/18/2005 1:29:57 PM

GSTI Software Index (GSO.X) 163.22 -0.21% .. comes up to WEEKLY Pivot.

Linda Piazza : 8/18/2005 1:28:33 PM

OEX reaching up toward its 50-sma again, with that average at 569.52. The 10-sma is just above that, at 570.34. Watch for a potential rollover from that level, if touched. Bears don't want the OEX to sustain levels above the 10-sma.

Jeff Bailey : 8/18/2005 1:26:50 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 8/18/2005 1:26:22 PM

The SOX has 240-minute 100/130-ema's as support beneath its current level, and has 15-, 30- and 60-minute versions above it. Sixty-minute versions are at 466.94 and 466.40, respectively. SOX at 462.50, rising to test the top of the descending regression channel in which it's traded all month, with the top of that channel at about 463.75.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/18/2005 1:24:15 PM

Big upside spike from QQQQ, testing 38.95 on a surge in volume at yesterday's pivot. There's gap resistance above it at 39.02.

Linda Piazza : 8/18/2005 1:24:01 PM

The SOX has confirmed that little inverse H&S that I mentioned earlier, visible on its 15-minute chart, but it rises straight into Keltner resistance at 462.23 on 15-minute closes.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/18/2005 1:20:09 PM

The corrective short cycle upphase has yet to reach overbought territory, but the oscillators are looking like they want to roll over. Bears not willing to jump into the middle of this blender will want to see a break of the 38.77 QQQQ low before trusting any downtick. And, there's also the op-ex pull of the 39 expiry. Link

Linda Piazza : 8/18/2005 1:12:14 PM

The RUT and RLX, two high-flying market leaders to the upside over recent months, both continue to test their 240-minute 100/130-ema's, with neither yet finished with that test. The SOX hasn't quite drifted down to those averages yet. The TRAN dropped toward the 240-minute 100-ema yesterday, but now coils just above those averages. The DJUSH has dropped below them and below a H&S formation's neckline, with that formation having somewhat stumpy shoulders in the 1012-1020 region and a head at the July highs, neckline at about 983.40. The DJUSHB is at 970.43 as I type, appearing to slow its desceng after confirming that formation.

Jeff Bailey : 8/18/2005 1:10:40 PM

01:00 Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/18/2005 1:03:12 PM

01:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/18/2005 12:58:07 PM

Catuity (CTTY) $16.45 +38.31% Link ... stock I've mentioned in prior weeks. It's a crazy bugger isn't it?

Jonathan Levinson : 8/18/2005 12:55:17 PM

Volume breadth -2.06:1 on the NYSE, -1.93:1 on the Nasdaq, holding the middle of today's range.

Linda Piazza : 8/18/2005 12:45:51 PM

If the OEX should climb above 569.61, it will have confirmed a double bottom on the 15-minute chart and will set up a possible move up toward 573-574, but I wouldn't necessarily count on that upside target being met, particularly not before a 15-minute close above a Keltner level currently at 570.20. Bears still don't want that double-bottom formation confirmed, however.

Jeff Bailey : 8/18/2005 12:38:08 PM

S&P Banks Index (BIX.X) 355.34 +0.11% ... comes to WEEKLY Pivot.

10-year ($TNX.X) down 4.7 bp at 4.226%.

Linda Piazza : 8/18/2005 12:37:29 PM

The OEX has now risen above the gap level and maintained that into a 15-mintue close, now testing Keltner resistance at 567.95-568.08 on 15-minute closes. Next resistance at 569.37-570.19 above this, but this is holding so far.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/18/2005 12:36:06 PM

QQQQ feels like it wants to pop higher- all that's lacking is the volume. The 30 min cycle is set up right, and the next big intraday move from here should be to the upside. Were it not for the influence of op-ex week, I'd be looking to catch it. But we often see flattening of consecutive up and downphases approaching opex Friday. With volume low and the longer cycles pointing south, it feels like too much of a gamble here. Link

Linda Piazza : 8/18/2005 12:35:40 PM

The SOX may be trying to form an inverse H&S at the bottom of its decline, with a right shoulder still to be formed. That's microanalyzing, however, on an opex Thursday afternoon, and that's a dangerous thing to do.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/18/2005 12:29:27 PM

Session low for Sept. crude, -.65 at 62.60.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/18/2005 12:18:48 PM

Ten year notes are up to new highs here, TNX -3.9 bps at 4.234% currently.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/18/2005 12:17:21 PM

Philly Fed 17.5 vs. 14 exp., prior 9.6.

Linda Piazza : 8/18/2005 12:14:55 PM

OEX again testing the top of the small gap from this morning. You'd think that was a huge gap instead of a nothing of a gap, the way the gap resistance has been holding on 15-minute closes.

Jeff Bailey : 8/18/2005 12:12:07 PM

Yesterday's Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/18/2005 12:10:08 PM

12:00 Internals found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 8/18/2005 12:08:03 PM

I'm still watching the RUT, coiling at the bottom of the day's decline, with Keltner resistance at 651.55 still holding on 15-minute closes. The RUT is testing that resistance now, with the RUT at 651.37.

Jeff Bailey : 8/18/2005 12:02:33 PM

12:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 8/18/2005 11:57:23 AM

The OEX is now having difficulty maintaining values above the bottom of this morning's tiny gap, much less above the top of that gap. Still, we can't assume too much today by the sideways action because sideways after mid-morning on an opex Thursday is an often-seen occurrence.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/18/2005 11:57:09 AM

The 30 min cycle oscillators are now as oversold as they were at the Tuesday low, 60 min cycle still early in its downphase. The bears need to see this week's lows broken in short order to avoid these intraday cycles consolidating for their next upphase. A break above 38.95 QQQQ should be enough to confirm the next upphase. Link

Jonathan Levinson : 8/18/2005 11:50:49 AM

Volume breadth holds solidly negative, -2.32:1 on the NYSE, -1.97:1 on the Nasdaq, but overall volume is very light, now up to 27.65M QQQQ shares just over 1/3 of yesterday's lighter than average volume.

Jeff Bailey : 8/18/2005 11:50:10 AM

Synopsys (SNPS) $19.00 +11.89% ... here's my day trader's chart at this Link

Linda Piazza : 8/18/2005 11:45:01 AM

So far, the OEX still hasn't been able to maintain values above this morning's gap, and it currently looks vulnerable to 565.71. If that support should fail, the next Keltner support is now at 563.96. If the OEX begins producing 15-minute closes back above 567.06, then it becomes more likely that it will test 568 resistance, with 569.51 waiting above that. So far, though, I haven't been impressed with the bounce attempt off the 200-sma.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/18/2005 11:36:54 AM

A 1.249B bill pass has just been announced by the Fed, evidently deciding that the 1.75B net repo add wasn't enough. This is a permanent net add, deliverable tomorrow.

Jeff Bailey : 8/18/2005 11:36:44 AM

Bullish day trade long alert ... for shares of Synopsys (SNPS) $18.99 +11.83% here, stop $18.80, target $19.75

Linda Piazza : 8/18/2005 11:32:56 AM

The BIX has been one model for me of what the OEX might do, as they had analogous chart formations, broadening formations on the daily charts roughly bisected by their 200-sma's. The BIX fell from its 200-sma to its 200-ema, with the OEX's 200-ema at 563.05. The BIX consolidated there for a while before dropping through that, too, in to its most recent consolidation pattern. We don't know that the OEX will exactly follow the BIX's pattern, of course, particularly because the BIX could steady and begin rising and that could buoy the OEX somewhat, but it still gives us a potential pattern to watch. We still know that we can't say that the OEX's 200-sma will automatically hold as support.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/18/2005 11:32:16 AM

QQQQ is pulling back again, but there's a small bullish divergence showing in the short cycle stochastics. If bulls can successfully defend the lows here, the narrow 30 min cycle should begin to tick up on the bounce that follows. Price feels very heavy beneath the current intraday, daily and weekly cycle downphases, but it's so far unwilling to drop more than 20-25 cents away from the 39 expiration level.

Jeff Bailey : 8/18/2005 11:28:44 AM

Biotechnology Index (BTK.X) 606.05 +0.06% ... inches green.

Jeff Bailey : 8/18/2005 11:26:41 AM

General Electric (GE) $34.13 +0.08% Link ... Prudential making some comments this morning and sees positive dynamics going forward "as earnings visibility improves." The broker's price target by end of year is low-to-mid $40s.

Jane Fox : 8/18/2005 11:25:43 AM

Certainly hope Jeff is here next week :)

Linda Piazza : 8/18/2005 11:23:46 AM

I'm also going to be away, all next week for me, as I mentioned yesterday.

Linda Piazza : 8/18/2005 11:22:36 AM

It does look as if the OEX might be attempting to widen its bear flag, but the first task of the bulls is to maintain values above this morning's gap, and bulls so far have not been able to do that. This doesn't look particularly great for the bulls, and another rollover below the LOD might get things started to the downside, particularly since the advdec line has eroded some of its oversold status. Bears do not want to see the OEX maintain levels above yesterday's close, though.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/18/2005 11:20:28 AM

Session high for ten year notes, +13/32 at 111 23/64, TNX down 3.9 bps to 4.234%.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/18/2005 11:19:18 AM

Sure is :)

Jane Fox : 8/18/2005 11:18:46 AM

Congratulations to you as well Jonathan. Is your brother getting married in the beautiful city of Montreal.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/18/2005 11:17:40 AM

Congratulations, Jane! My brother is getting married next week and I will be away from tomorrow until Wednesday the 24th.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/18/2005 11:14:41 AM

From the Treasury's website:

The Treasury will auction 13-week and 26-week Treasury bills totaling $34,000 million to refund an estimated $35,018 million of publicly held 13-week and 26-week Treasury bills maturing August 25, 2005, and to pay down approximately $1,018 million. Also maturing is an estimated $13,000 million of publicly held 4-week Treasury bills, the disposition of which will be announced August 22, 2005.

Jeff Bailey : 8/18/2005 11:11:23 AM

11:00 Internals found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 8/18/2005 11:10:09 AM

The RUT looked worse than many other indices on a Keltner basis this morning, violating its 15-minute Keltner channel and dipping briefly below 650. It's still so far finding resistance at a Keltner line currently at 652.02 on 15-minute closes, with the RUT now at 650.80. Bears want that resistance line to continue to hold.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/18/2005 11:08:55 AM

QQQQ update with descending resistance from Monday's high. 1st sign of trouble for bears will be a break above the prior high at 38.92: Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/18/2005 11:04:48 AM

11:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/18/2005 11:00:18 AM

Swing trade sell covered call alert ... with Wellpoint (WLP) $73.35 +0.30%, let's sell two (2) of the WLP Sep. $75 Calls (WLP-IO) at the bid of $1.00.

Linda Piazza : 8/18/2005 10:57:01 AM

OEX zig-zagging, but within a potential bear flag rise. It could be argued that it just dropped below the bear flag's support in the last three minutes, but it's immediately bouncing right back up again, so it may have just been widening that flag. Keltner evidence is not conclusive, and the OEX could just as easily fall to retest the bottom of that same old channel, now at 565.82, as it could rise to test 568.26-568.48 resistance. So far, bears have probably not felt comfortable with the rise and some with close stops may have had those stops triggered, but nothing terrible has happened.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/18/2005 10:55:13 AM

The prognosis is for more chop, with the QQQQ short cycles now rolling over from their weak upphase while the wavelet tries to bounce: Link

Jonathan Levinson : 8/18/2005 10:54:24 AM

Session low for QQQQ, testing yesterday's low for the second time today, while gold prints a session high, testing 443.50-444.00 confluence from below.

Jeff Bailey : 8/18/2005 10:50:39 AM

10 Most Active .... QQQQ $38.85 -0.48%, SPY $122.16 -0.03%, JDSU $1.53 -3.16%, CSCO $17.79 -0.28%, INTC $25.97 -0.45%, MYOG $22.22 +64.10%, MO $69.80 +2.78%, SIRI $6.46 -1.52%, MSFT $26.92 -0.11%, TMTA $1.79 +4.67%

Tab Gilles : 8/18/2005 10:41:28 AM

Eaton Vance Limited Duration Income Fund (EVV) Link Link Link

Linda Piazza : 8/18/2005 10:35:08 AM

The OEX is rising higher than current bears would have liked. Watch 568.53 and then 569.69 on 15-minute closes for a sign of a potential rollover. The advdec line also rose higher than current bears would have liked, but watch how it behaves near -1430 and then -860 to -700, if it should get that high. Any potential OEX rollover should be accompanied by a rollover in the advdec line.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/18/2005 10:33:18 AM

13.9M QQQQ shares have traded so far, very light volume for the combined first hour/premarket. Volume breadth has improved to -1.79:1 on the NYSE, -1.41:1 on the Nasdaq.

Jeff Bailey : 8/18/2005 10:28:14 AM

Altria (MO) $69.30 +2.12% Link ... notable 52-weeker this morning. Late yesterday the company said that a federal judge has dismissed a lawsuit challenging its wholesale customer program. The plaintiffs had alleged that the company's program constituted illegal price discrimination and violated federal antitrust laws. The court disagreed, ruling that the program "is available to all customers using a nondiscriminatory formula," the tobacco company said.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/18/2005 10:24:33 AM

72 SMA resistance is down to 38.95 QQQQ, a break above which would stall the 30 min cycle downphase and confirm what so far feels like a corrective short cycle upphase. Link

Tab Gilles : 8/18/2005 10:24:33 AM

$SOX Link Link

Murphy Oil (MUR) Link

Energy Select (XLE) Link Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/18/2005 10:23:47 AM

Current OPEN MM Profiles found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 8/18/2005 10:21:33 AM

Session low for crude oil, -.5 at 62.75 here.

Linda Piazza : 8/18/2005 10:21:01 AM

The TRAN is lower today, too, but so far above yesterday's 3681.19 low. The TRAN's 240-minute 100/130-ema's are at 3676.25 and 3660.44, respectively.

Linda Piazza : 8/18/2005 10:19:42 AM

RLX also testing the 240-minute 100/130-ema's this morning, between the two averages currently.

Linda Piazza : 8/18/2005 10:18:52 AM

For several days, the RUT has been testing the important 240-minute 100/130-ema's, now at 654.63 and 649.74, with the RUT at 650.16. For the first time since the middle of May, the RUT pierced the 130-ema by a little this morning, but now tries to bounce back. Bears don't want to see a RUT move back above the 100-eam on that chart, but particularly not above the 240-minute 21-ema at 661.89.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/18/2005 10:15:28 AM

A short cycle upphase kicked off on the break above QQQQ 39.86, but the wavelet upphase is already stalled with price net unchanged. Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/18/2005 10:14:18 AM

10:00 Internals found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 8/18/2005 10:12:58 AM

Volume breadth -2.10:1 on the NYSE, -1.84:1 on the Nasdaq.

Linda Piazza : 8/18/2005 10:12:31 AM

On each of the OEX's last bounces up through that same old Keltner channel, the OEX has rolled over further and further away from the top of the channel. That's one reason among many that I'm not suggesting bullish plays on touches of the bottom of the channel. If that noted action is to continue, the OEX shouldn't get much past 568.79 or perhaps 569.78, at least on a 15-minute closing basis. Of course, current bears hope that it doesn't get past 567.41 on a 15-minute closing basis.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/18/2005 10:02:34 AM

Ten year notes are up 15/64 at 111 11/64, TNX down 2.7 bps at 4.246%.

Jeff Bailey : 8/18/2005 10:01:41 AM

10:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 8/18/2005 10:01:39 AM

OEX trying to steady right at that same old Keltner channel's lower support. That support coincides roughly with the 200-sma, and so there's double the reason for this attempt, but the OEX's pattern on its daily chart now begins to look like a "b" distribution pattern at the bottom of Tuesday's steep decline and I wouldn't be surprised to see an eventual rollover beneath that 200-sma. Unfortunately for bears, I also wouldn't be particularly surprised to see a bounce back up to the 50-sma at 569.48 and a rollover from there. If that should happen, that would make a good new bearish entry, but those currently in bearish positions don't want to make that round trip. First Keltner resistance now at 567.36 on 15-minute closes and next at 568.47 and bears would like to see those hold. They'd prefer an immediate rollover.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/18/2005 10:01:37 AM

Headlines:

U.S. JULY LEADING INDICATORS RISE 0.1% VS 0.3 EXPECTED

6 OF 10 U.S. LEADING INDICATORS INCREASE IN JULY

U.S. JULY COINCIDENT INDICATORS RISE 0.1%

U.S. JULY LAGGING INDICATORS RISE 0.3%

U.S. JUNE LEADING INDICATORS REVISED TO 1.2% VS. 0.9%

Jonathan Levinson : 8/18/2005 10:01:01 AM

Volume breadth is improving, still negative, and the higher relative low on the last dip suggests a small reverse h&s this morning. If so, it projects to a gap fill at the 72 SMA, 39.00 QQQQ. Volume is very light, op-ex distortions in effect, and the 30/60 min cycles in the early stages of their downphase, so I'm skeptical of the upside for now.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/18/2005 9:54:28 AM

Awaiting Leading Economic Indicators in 6 minutes.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/18/2005 9:53:03 AM

The Fed has just ponied up an 11.25B overnight repo, resulting in a 1.75B net add against the net 9.5B expiring.

Linda Piazza : 8/18/2005 9:50:09 AM

Those in current OEX bearish plays need to have further profit-protecting plans in place for a test of 563-564.30, if it should occur, but should also know how they'll handle an OEX steadying at the 200-sma, as it's trying to do now. The 200-sma is at 566.21 with the OEX right there as I type. Those hoping for a rollover beneath that MA may be trying new bearish entries now, but, if so, need to be quick on their feet if the OEX should steady and rise up through the channels again. The advdec line shows an attempt to rise during this first typical retracement of the day, but may be vulnerable to further declines, too, perhaps bringing equities with it, as long as it doesn't move over about -1700.

Jeff Bailey : 8/18/2005 9:48:55 AM

Six Flags (PKS) $6.30 +14.75% Link ... mentioned this stock during the Michael Jackson trial. Late last night, Washington Redskins owner Dan Snyder, a longtime critic of PKS management, said he has begun a proxy contest to gain three of seven seats on the theme park company's board. Mr. Snyder and his investment firm, Red Zone LLC, also disclosed a plan to acquire a total of up 34.9 percent of the company's outstanding shares, subject to conditions that include the selection of Snyder as Six Flags' chairman. Red Zone already owns 11.7% of the company's shares, and would pay $6.50 a share to acquire the additional stake, according to a filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission

Linda Piazza : 8/18/2005 9:46:22 AM

The OEX has edged just below its 200-sma, and appears to be trying to steady there, and at Keltner support at 566.14 on 15-minute closes. The OEX just closed the first 15-minute period minimally below that Keltner line, creating a downside target and possible support at 564.32, but the signal was so weak that it might not be reliable.

Jeff Bailey : 8/18/2005 9:43:44 AM

C-COR Inc. (CCBL) $6.63 -17.02% Link ... percentage loser at the NASDAQ after the network equipment maker reported a fiscal fourth-quarter loss of $5.7 million, or $0.12 a share, down from its year-ago profit of $4.6 million, or $0.10 a share. The latest results include charges from restructuring and amortization of intangible assets that totaled $0.04 a share. Sales rose in the latest three months to $68.5 million from $64.2 million in the same period a year earlier. Consensus was for a loss of $0.07 cents a share in the June quarter on sales of $68.4 million.

The company said its book-to-bill ratio for the quarter was 0.92 vs. 0.94 in the same period last year.

Linda Piazza : 8/18/2005 9:42:02 AM

Benchmarking impressions: Advdec line approaches what the Keltner channels identify as a possible extreme measure for the short-term move, at -3572, with the QCharts version showing a measure of -2868 as I type. That suggests that there's a bit more downside to go, but then that the advdec line might either steady and move sideways while the "oversold" indications are burned off or that there might be a bounce in the advdec line and a possible bounce attempt in the equities, too. If matters are really bearish, a sideways to sideways-up move will be all that occurs. If they're reallllly bearish, there will be a downside breakout in the advdec line.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/18/2005 9:36:33 AM

QQQQ holds well below 30 and 60 min channel support. If it doesn't bounce back above 38.93 during the next half hour, we will be looking at a very bearish trending move- subject always to the op-ex disclaimer I mentioned earlier. Link

Linda Piazza : 8/18/2005 9:34:48 AM

RUT dropping heavily, just above 650 as I type, at 650.31.

Linda Piazza : 8/18/2005 9:33:26 AM

The SOX falls away from its test of the top of the descending regression channel for this month. The midline of that channel is down at about 457.15, but the SOX will hit potential Keltner support at 460.44, with the SOX now at 461.49.

Jeff Bailey : 8/18/2005 9:33:13 AM

Google (GOOG) $277.29 -2.70% Link ... plans to sell 14.8 million shares in a move that could raise $4 billion.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/18/2005 9:33:09 AM

Ten year notes have edged off their highs, TNX currently -3.1 bps to 4.242%. Crude oil finished -.05 at 63.20.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/18/2005 9:32:38 AM

Volume breadth -3.96:1 on the NYSE, -2:1 on the Nasdaq.

Linda Piazza : 8/18/2005 9:32:00 AM

The OEX drops to next Keltner support, at 566.89, but looks vulnerable to 566.30, the bottom support of that same Keltner channel that's been containing it for so long. Bears need to have profit-protecting plans in case there's a bounce from that level. Next target if that's breached is 564.43, but remember the 200-sma at 566.21.

Jeff Bailey : 8/18/2005 9:30:46 AM

JDS Uniphase (JDSU) $1.58 Link ... lower at $1.53 and #2 most active in pre-market trade. The company said it will postpone reporting fiscal Q4 and 2005 results to allow more time to complete the year-end audit of its financial statements. The company also said it expects to report fourth-quarter revenue of about $170 million, with higher gross margins than in the third quarter. Analysts had on average forecast revenue of $166.3 million.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/18/2005 9:30:40 AM

Linda, I believe that such was Elliot's conclusion. Tony Robbins interviews Prechter who says as much, arguing that crowd psychology is a predictable phenomenon. Moving away from Elliot, Kondratieff correlated armed conflicts to cycles of credit contraction and expansion.

Linda Piazza : 8/18/2005 9:28:18 AM

Keene's 9:12 post on the Futures side brings up an interesting idea that I've mulled over from time to time. Any who have studied Fib numbers know that they have a basis in a mathematical series, but one that's played out across all of nature--in the number of petals on a flower, for example. Could there be a Fib or EW relationship to major global events, too? Could we plot those out the same way we do market highs and lows? I'm not sure if that research has ever been done, but I'd be interested in seeing it, if it had.

Jeff Bailey : 8/18/2005 9:26:28 AM

Myogen (MYOG) $13.54 Link ... atop this mornings most active list and higher at $20.21 after the company said it is encouraged by the results from a Phase 2b trial of its darusentan treatment for resistant hypertension. The firm said the trial showed that 300 mg of darusentan dosed once daily provided statistically significant, placebo-corrected reductions of blood pressure. Myogen said "Trial results demonstrated darusentan was generally well tolerated suggesting a favorable safety profile." It said it plans to move forward with Phase 3 clinical development of darusentan for the treatment of resistant hypertension.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/18/2005 9:21:12 AM

The Fed's 15.5B in various expiring repos has so far been addressed with a 6B 14-day repo against the 6B expiring. 9.5B remains to be addressed with the overnight announcement at 10AM.

Linda Piazza : 8/18/2005 8:58:21 AM

Yesterday was a difficult trading day, but one that was to be expected after the previous day's steep decline. A choppy, small-range day sometimes follows big-range days, and opex week is known for its choppy, difficult-to-trade days anyway. Many indices spent the day rising in a corrective fashion from support to retrace some of Tuesday's losses. The OEX was one, rising from its test of the 200-sma on Tuesday into a test of the 50-sma and the mid-point of Tuesday's range. That 569.45-ish resistance held, and the OEX fell back by the close. It looks as if tests of 569-571 and rollovers from there would make appropriate new bearish entries, with profit-protecting plans in place for tests of the 200-sma. Intrepid bulls can try playing bounces from the 200-sma, but that's not my type of play when the OEX has been declining all month. A breakdown play below the 200-sma at 566.08, confirmed by a 15-minute close below 566.38, might make a possible new bearish entry, but breakout or breakdown plays have not worked particularly well on the OEX for a long while.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/18/2005 8:35:44 AM

Thanks, Linda- my DJ ticker isn't showing it for some reason.

Linda Piazza : 8/18/2005 8:34:58 AM

Jonathan, I don't know whether it's new information or not as I don't closely follow GOOG, but it's apparently filed to sell 14.1 million Class A shares.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/18/2005 8:34:46 AM

Last week's Initial Claims were revised up 2K from 308K to 310K.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/18/2005 8:33:07 AM

The higher than expected initial claims number has been greeted with zero reaction whatsoever, not even a one penny move in QQQQ, same with bonds. The market appears to have been very prescient this morning. QQQQ is down .19 at 38.85 here, ten year notes +19/64 at 111 1/4, TNX -4 bps at 4.233%.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/18/2005 8:30:55 AM

Headlines:

U.S. INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS RISE 6,000 TO 316,000

U.S. INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS HIGHER THAN EXPECTED

U.S. 4-WK AVG. JOBLESS CLAIMS UP 2,750 TO 312,750

U.S. CONTINUING JOBLESS CLAIMS UP 28,000 TO 2.59 MLN

Jonathan Levinson : 8/18/2005 8:30:06 AM

Headline:

AP: SAUDI ARABIA SAYS HAS KILLED LOCAL AL-QAIDA LEADER

Jonathan Levinson : 8/18/2005 8:27:29 AM

GOOG is getting thrashed, -3.5% at 275.11. I see no new news this morning, but the trademark infringement judgment with Geico I reported a few days ago seems sufficiently serious to me.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/18/2005 8:25:03 AM

Ten year notes are still climbing, TNX down 3.4 bps at 4.239%, right in the middle of yesterday's range.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/18/2005 8:15:30 AM

The current drop has come quickly for the 30 min cycle, which rolled over from overbought territory, and very early for the 60 min cycle- ideally, price would have chopped sideways for a couple of hours before rolling over. The early drop could either signal a steepening of the daily cycle downphase (and weekly cycle) within whcih it is occurring, and on which basis I am generally bearish. But I suspect that it's just more op-ex week action, and wouldn't be at all surprised to see the price gravitate toward that QQQQ 39 level. The fact that price is buried below the 30 and 60 min keltner channels supports that interpretation.

There's a maxim that my cycle guru likes, to the effect that "Friends don't let friends trade during scam week." It overstates the point, in my opinion, but there's no doubt that price and cycle patterns get distorted during opex week. Were it not opex Thursday, I would be judging the overnight price action as more bearish than I currently am.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/18/2005 7:46:42 AM

Equities are down, ES trading 1218.75, NQ 1580.5, YM 10536 and QQQQ -.19 at 38.85. Gold is down 1.60 to 440.40, silver -.031 to 6.962, crude oil is -.05 to 63.20 and ten year notes are +7/32 to 111 11/32.

We await the 8:30 release of Initial Claims, est. 310K, followed by the 10AM release of LEI, est. .2%, and the Philadelphia Fed at noon, est. 14.

Linda Piazza : 8/18/2005 7:21:16 AM

Good morning. The Nikkei closed higher, but well off its high of the day and below the opening level. Most other Asian markets declined, as do European markets this morning. As of 7:12 EST, our futures were lower. At that same time, gold was higher by $1.20, and crude, higher by $0.42, to $63.67. Goldman Sachs has forecast that crude will be at $68.00 a barrel in 2006, raising it from the former $50.00 estimate, and will remain above $60.00 for the long term. More detail about Asian and European markets follows in succeeding paragraphs.

The Nikkei gapped higher and then climbed Thursday morning, led by automakers and major banks, but once again, it couldn't hold onto all its gains. After punching higher, it fell back below the opening level, leaving yet another shooting star candle. It did not, however, close all the morning's gap, closing up by 34.25 points or 0.28%, at 12,307.37. Early news focused on a negative: the need for chemical companies and others to raise prices due to rising crude costs. Other news involved speculation about GDP growth. A newspaper in Japan surveyed 15 private-sector research institutes, who predicted that real gross domestic product growth for fiscal 2005 would be 1.9%. A survey of 14 economists by Bloomberg reported that those surveyed expected the GDP to rise 2.0%, with that an increase from their previous estimate of 1.9%. This month, Economic Minister Takenaka had stated that the country was tracking toward an achievement of the government's 2% target for nominal GDP growth. In company-specific news, Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi revealed that it would expand its network in Eastern Europe. Banks, including Mizuho Financial Group Inc., led early gains.

Most other Asian markets closed lower. In early trading, Asian energy companies declined as crude had slipped off recent highs. The Taiwan Weighted dropped 0.59%, and South Korea's Kospi fell 1.85%. Singapore's Straits Times was one of the few bourses rising, with a gain of 0.11%. Hong Kong's Hang Seng dropped 1.95%, and China's Shanghai Composite fell 3.76%.

European markets drop this morning, too, with red on all bourses. Germany's PPI for July rose more than expected, higher by 0.5% month over month. Gains in electricity and oil-related costs pumped up the number, although the increase in electricity costs was the bigger contributor. Year over year, the increase was 4.6%. CPI has not yet indicated any ability to pass these costs on to the consumers, but this PPI figure does show that inflationary pressures may be building underground, especially with crude costs having risen again in August. In the U.K., the Greater London Authority predicts that the July 7 terror attacks will set back London's economy but probably not as much as did the beginning of the Iraq war. Market watchers then turned to today's release of July's Retail Sales. Those sales fell 0.3% month over month, but the expectation had been for a 0.6% drop. Year over year, the rate rose to 1.8%, up from June's 1.2% year-over-year rise. In a separate release, July's Mortgage Lending slowed to its lowest value in more than three years. Another release showed that the fiscal surplus has grown, easing concerns that taxes might be raised.

Oil-related issues tended to drift lower in Europe. In stock-specific news, CSFB upgraded EMI to an outperform rating. Infineon was a top gainer in Europe, rising in part due to renewed speculation that it will spin off its memory chip unit by the end of the year. In addition, Deutsche Bank raised the price target for the company's stock. J.P. Morgan upgraded the U.K.'s GlaxoSmithKline, and that company's stock was gaining. Beverage maker Diageo benefited from a Morgan Stanley upgrade. On the earnings front, Zurich Financial services fell after it announced earnings, Ciba Specialty Chemicals fell after cutting its earnings estimates for the year and automobile ignition technology manufacturer Beru AG eased after saying that its first-half growth rate would likely not continue into the second half. In a deal apparently announced this morning, the Royal Bank of Scotland PLC announced that it would lead a consortium that includes Merrill Lynch and the Li Ka Shing Foundation to take a stake of just over 5% in the Bank of China. Their areas of cooperation will include personal lines insurance, wealth management and credit cards, and that cooperation should extend for three years.

As of 7:11 EST, the FTSE 100 was lower by 18.20 points or 0.34%, at 5,274.50. The CAC 40 was lower by 20.29 points or 0.46%, at 4,419.34. The DAX was lower by 27.59 points or 0.57%, at 4,843.87.

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