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Jeff Bailey : 8/25/2005 1:19:44 AM

I didn't see Tab Gilles in Wednesday's MM, but I see the NASDAQ Summation Index ($NASI) Link , which Tab likes to follow gave a "sell signal" yesterday (5-point box) and fell below 0.00 today.

Jeff Bailey : 8/25/2005 12:52:27 AM

Week-to-week Sector Bell Curve from Dorsey/Wright and Associates at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/25/2005 12:30:45 AM

Goldman Sachs (GS) Bar chart with conventional (blue) and high/low close (pink) at this Link ... Today's option chain, sorted by most active at this Link ... A lot of "married" put/call action, with much of it hinting at risk to $102.50 to $105.50 max September expire.

Not knowing what value VIX.X might have should GS trade that level, eyeball for today's profiled GS Oct. $100 Puts (GS-VT) would be a target of $1.50 to $1.95.

I marked the top 10 open interest.

Jeff Bailey : 8/24/2005 10:54:40 PM

Pivot Matrix for Thursday at this Link

OI Technical Staff : 8/24/2005 10:00:00 PM

The Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

Disclaimer: Stocks discussed in the Market Monitor are for educational purposes only and any analysis is not meant to imply a recommendation for or against that stock. The analysts in this forum as on any other website are prohibited by the SEC from giving any specific advice to ANY individual trader. All information posted is for ALL readers and is not meant to be directed to any individual. Our analysts cannot answer any email questions regarding any specific stock. Please do not ask and please do not take offense if requests are denied.

Results posted in the Market Monitor are hypothetical and OIN does not claim that any reader achieved these exact results. Due to the lag time between research, writing, posting, uploading, reading and execution there will be differences between the actual signal given and the fill achieved by the reader. Fills may be better or worse but in most cases they will be different. The writers will make every effort to give advance notice of intended signals and indicate potential price targets. Your individual results may vary depending on your activity level and aggressiveness. This forum is intended as an education service only. Trading involves risk and should not be attempted by anyone not ready to accept this risk. By acting on any signal in this forum you agree and personally accept this risk.

Jeff Bailey : 8/24/2005 5:56:09 PM

Imperial Oil Ltd (IMO) $95.45 +3.99% Link ... raised its purchase price for benchmark 40-degree gravity light crude oil at Edmonton by C$9 a cubic meter to C$512 a cubic meter, effective Wednesday.

In terms of barrels, the company is now offering C$81.41 a barrel, up from C$79.98. The new purchase price indicates an export price delivered to Chicago of about US$69.69 a barrel after considering transportation and import charges and foreign exchange rates.

Jeff Bailey : 8/24/2005 4:56:07 PM

Closing U.S. Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/24/2005 4:38:42 PM

Closing Internals found at this Link

Marc Eckelberry : 8/24/2005 4:37:55 PM

I'm moving QQQQ target down to around 38. See my post on NQ future's side.

Jeff Bailey : 8/24/2005 4:21:01 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles found at this Link ... Today's Activity ... Day traded long shares of PACCAR (PCAR) at the offer of $70.12, stopped at $69.50 ($-0.62, or -0.88%).

Bullish swing trade stopped on the 1/2 bullish position in shares of General Electric (GE) at $33.70 ($-0.55, or -1.61%).

Swing trade put three (3) Goldman Sachs GS Oct $100 Puts (GS-VT) and will either look to close these out with a GS trade at $105, or depending on VIX.X and premiums, sell the near-term Sep $100 Puts (GS-UT).

Marc Eckelberry : 8/24/2005 3:54:25 PM

Here comes that gap close for QQQQ at 38.40. It would be nice if they did it in regular hours.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/24/2005 3:52:27 PM

QQQQ - Exit Point Alert -

Out QQQQ long from 39.52 at 39.52

Marc Eckelberry : 8/24/2005 3:48:12 PM

July gap open for QQQQ was sold (38.65) and that is R until we close the gap (38.40), I think.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/24/2005 3:46:49 PM

SPX weekly chart. We bounced exactly at trendline support from August 2004 low. Note that the line has been broken before, but I kept it in there, It also coincides with neckline of this year inverse H&S. 1210/1211 is definitely critical. Link

Jonathan Levinson : 8/24/2005 3:42:29 PM

Aug. 24 (Bloomberg) -- The Federal Reserve Bank of New York invited 14 of the "major participants" in the credit- derivatives market to a meeting next month amid concern the $8.4 trillion industry is rife with unconfirmed trades.

The meeting at the Fed's New York office on Sept. 15 will focus on market practices, according to an Aug. 12 letter sent to bank chief executives by New York Fed President Timothy Geithner. Fed spokesman Peter Bakstansky confirmed the letter's contents and declined to name the firms invited.

Link

Jonathan Levinson : 8/24/2005 3:40:17 PM

QQQQ's drop has gotten way ahead of the 30 and 60 min cycle oscillators, and they're only now getting started to the downside. This is, of course, both a huge potential bearish divergence or the start of a strong decline with (so far) excellent downside traction. The QQQQ long has its stop at breakeven, and nothing is being risked, with a small 7 cent cushion. Some traders hold overnight, others don't. While futures can hit their stops overnight, QQQQ traders need to either be prepared to hedge with futures or take the risk of an adverse overnight move. In the model trade, I will look to close the position unless we start to see some stronger traction and a much wider cushion- my line in the sand will be 38.70, the pivot for today and previous confluence support: Link

Marc Eckelberry : 8/24/2005 3:38:40 PM

Expanding volume at a break of neckline is usually an indication of follow through. The battle is on.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/24/2005 3:36:07 PM

Jonathan, that QQQQ inverse H&S neckline is at 38.61. This is getting interesting. I think SPX has the same neckline around 1211 or so.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/24/2005 3:31:36 PM

Crude oil +.20 at 67.525 in the evening session. QQQQ's bounce attempt failed right at yesterday's low, now resistance, and aside from the wavelet bounce and oversold short cycle, the market is feeling awfully heavy.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/24/2005 3:26:10 PM

Gap open is 38.65 and will be R until the gap is closed, I think.

Jeff Bailey : 8/24/2005 3:57:20 PM

For the Goldman Sachs Oct. $100 long puts, I'm looking to use these as an eventual "protective" should GS fall to $105.00. Then, would sell covered the Sep. $100 puts with "inflated" premiums.

PnF Chart of GS at this Link

Marc Eckelberry : 8/24/2005 3:26:39 PM

For those in my QQQQ 39 Septmber puts, I'm eyeing 38.40 (July gap close) and 38.35 (50%).

Jonathan Levinson : 8/24/2005 3:22:32 PM

QQQQ - Stop Loss Adjustment Alert -

QQQQ long at 39.52, raise stop to 39.52

Jeff Bailey : 8/24/2005 3:18:59 PM

Swing trade Bearish Put alert for Goldman Sachs and three (3) of the Oct. $100 Puts (GSVT) at the offer of $0.75.

GS $110.88 here.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/24/2005 3:17:05 PM

Session high for crude oil, reopened for trading, at 67.55.

Jeff Bailey : 8/24/2005 3:14:32 PM

Bullish swing trade stopped alert on the 1/2 bullish position in shares of General Electric (GE) at $33.70.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/24/2005 3:14:29 PM

QQQQ - Entry Point Alert -

Long QQQQ at 38.52, stop 38.46.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/24/2005 3:12:37 PM

38.59 QQQQ is this morning's low, 2 pennies from yesterday's low. A close below these levels will be very bearish for the day. Shorter term, the price has gotten ahead of the 30 and 60 min channels, and the short cycles are oversold. Short on the break back below the 39.10 confluence was the play. A bounce to a lower high will be the next short entry, if this slide ever stops. Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/24/2005 3:12:41 PM

Gas price cap ... Honolulu, Hawaii ... Legislators approve the capping retail price for unleaded gasoline at $2.15. Well below the current price of $2.82 per gallon.

Linda Piazza : 8/24/2005 3:10:42 PM

Taking off now. OEX testing 200-ema at 562.89. Advdec line testing mid-channel Keltner support on the 30-minute chart. Could be a bounce attempt here, as the advdec line does sometimes bounce from this support, but if the advdec line drops deeply below -93, then a straight-down drop toward -1500 could be in the works. If you've taken partial profit and ratcheted down the stops on the rest, you should feel more comfortable deciding whether you want to weather a potential bounce. I would not go long just yet, as there's potential for that advdec line to drop straight to -1500, rather soon. That's not promised or perhaps even probable, but it's a definite possibility, so while I'd be protecting bearish profits, I wouldn't be feeling good about venturing long. And I'm now off again for the rest of the day. Bears, don't let a profitable position go sour on you, though. Adhere to your stops.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/24/2005 3:05:43 PM

QQQQ volume breadth still holds positive at +1.24:1, while the NYSE is now red, -1.22:1.

Jeff Bailey : 8/24/2005 3:02:36 PM

03:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 8/24/2005 3:02:01 PM

QQQQ is down to a 4 cent gain here at 38.77, and back to its 10AM levels prior to the breakout. Volume is rising on the sell side, despite the 30 and 60 min channel violations. Price should bounce based on the channel breaks and the short cycle oversold readings, but the failure at higher highs is type of move that can set up intraday trending moves. Bears not already short will be looking for a violation of today's low less than 20 cents away, below which there will be a key reversal print/bearish engulfing for the daily candle. Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/24/2005 3:01:53 PM

Bullish day trade stop alert ... for PACCAR (PCAR) $69.50

Linda Piazza : 8/24/2005 2:55:55 PM

Just stopping in for a second to stay that OEX bears who might have entered a bearish position on a rollover beneath 568.50 (see previous posts) and a rollover in the advdec line need to have profit-protecting plans in place now. Perhaps at least consider taking partial credit and racheting the stops down on the rest as the OEX now tests the 100-sma and approaches the support of that same old Keltner channel at 563.96, and the 200-ema just below 563. The advdec line on the 30-minute Keltner channel suggests that there could be more downside, but if the advdec line can steady here, at 30-minute Keltner S/R at 1080 or so, there's a chance of a bounce back up to retest Keltner resistance near 1800. That advdec line bounce isn't promised, but watch for that possibility and do consider taking partial profit and lowering stops on the rest of the position in case that bounce occurs.

Jeff Bailey : 8/24/2005 2:48:55 PM

General Electric (GE) $33.81 -0.47% ... probes Tuesday's lows.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/24/2005 2:48:55 PM

Headlines:

[FNM] FANNIE MAE GENERAL COUNSEL ANN KAPPLER TO STEP DOWN

[FNM] FANNIE MAE: GENERAL COUNSEL KAPPLER LEAVING FOR LAW FIRM JOB

[FNM] FANNIE MAE: GENERAL COUNSEL KAPPLER TO STAY UNTIL END OF YR

[FNM] FANNIE MAE TO LAUNCH GENERAL COUNSEL SEARCH IMMEDIATELY

FNM is down 12 cents here at 50.73.

Jeff Bailey : 8/24/2005 2:46:41 PM

Wal-Mart (WMT) $46.06 -0.60% ... probes morning low.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/24/2005 2:43:28 PM

Volume breadth down to +1.25:1 on the NYSE, +2.05:1 on the Nasdaq.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/24/2005 2:37:55 PM

QQQQ continues to find support at the descending breakout line from this morning. The 60 min cycle up has finally stalled, however. Bulls need a bounce back above 39.02 QQQQ to stall the intraday downphases: Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/24/2005 2:34:46 PM

AMEX Gold bugs ($HUI.X) 201.70 -1.74% Link ... slips back under its longer-term 200-day SMA, testing rising intermediate-term 50-day SMA.

Jeff Bailey : 8/24/2005 2:31:17 PM

TRIN 1.14 -7.31% ... comes back up to DAILY Pivot as Crude Oil hits record highs.

10-year YIELD ($TNX.X) down 0.7 bp at 4.180%

Jonathan Levinson : 8/24/2005 2:30:39 PM

Crude oil finished +1.65 or 2.51% at its session high of 67.35. Link

Jonathan Levinson : 8/24/2005 2:27:38 PM

Make that 67.30 for crude oil, a new high +1.60. 2 mins to go in the daytime session.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/24/2005 2:24:10 PM

QQQQ has just dived in for a test of 38.92 as crude oil printed 67.05, still rising as I type. Below the declining breakout line at 38.87, QQQQ bears will be back in the driver seat- but the 60 min channel has yet to turn, and short cycle indicators are growing bottomy: Link

Jonathan Levinson : 8/24/2005 2:12:35 PM

Crude oil has made it to 66.90 here, off a high of 66.975.

Jeff Bailey : 8/24/2005 2:11:56 PM

02:00 Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/24/2005 2:02:50 PM

02:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 8/24/2005 1:59:29 PM

QQQQ's just peeked its head below the 72 SMA for the first time since breaking above it at 10:30AM. So far, the 30 min channel bottom has not deviated from 38.95, still flat, just as it was at 39.20. The short cycle is approaching oversold territory but needs a break above 39.07 to stall and begin turning up: Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/24/2005 1:54:46 PM

At this point, I count 8 sell program premiums. No/zero buy program premiums.

Jeff Bailey : 8/24/2005 1:53:23 PM

PCAR/QQQQ day trader's montage at this Link ... taken just before the recent sell program premium.

Jeff Bailey : 8/24/2005 1:52:09 PM

S&P Banks (BIX.X) 353.71 -0.17% ...

Jeff Bailey : 8/24/2005 1:51:48 PM

10-year YIELD ($TNX.X) down 0.6 bp at 4.181%.

Jeff Bailey : 8/24/2005 1:51:26 PM

Sell Program Premium ... DIA $105.16, SPX 1,220.14, QQQQ $39.00

Jonathan Levinson : 8/24/2005 1:43:31 PM

Today's 20B 2-year note auction saw a very respectable 8.373B worth of accepted bids from foreign central banks. The high-yield was 4.014%, bid-to-cover 2.28.

Jeff Bailey : 8/24/2005 1:29:02 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 8/24/2005 1:28:48 PM

Note that the move of the past hour saw a much higher relative spike in the SOX than it did in the broader QQQQ. SOX chart at this Link and QQQQ update at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 8/24/2005 1:26:05 PM

Marc, I recently began reading James Howard Kunstler's The Long Emergency, which is an exposition of issues such as peak oil and the converging trends of global warming, natgas depletion, etc., as well as his own pet issue, which is a criticism of suburbia as a means of civic organization. A fascinating read.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/24/2005 1:19:36 PM

New session high for Oct. crude at 66.725 here.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/24/2005 1:16:27 PM

QQQQ's 72 SMA is 12 cents below the current 39.07 level and price is back to its 10:45 AM levels. Bears need to see more than this to suggest that even the 72 SMA will be broken- in light of the daily cycle's need for a bounce, overdue by a week, this current chop is looking more accumulative than distributive. Below 38.88, that will change. Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/24/2005 1:11:27 PM

01:00 Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/24/2005 1:03:49 PM

01:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 8/24/2005 12:53:55 PM

Crude oil persistent at 66.375, +.675.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/24/2005 12:52:55 PM

QQQQ bounced from 39.10, and of course the picture is complicated by potential bearish divergences resulting from the quick pops. But volume breadth has strengthened further, +2.2:1 for the NYSE and +3.2:1 for the Nasdaq. The 30 min channel has flattened at 39.20, suggesting a top there, but I'm having trouble believing it. The price action has been very strong today. Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/24/2005 12:40:59 PM

VIX.X 13.12 -1.64% ... session low .. hugging WEEKLY Pivot here. Interesting article in The New York Times "If the Contrarians Are at the Gate, They May Just Be Lost" Link

Jonathan Levinson : 8/24/2005 12:38:00 PM

QQQQ retests the breakout point, once again pulling back on lighter volume. The move never made it to the 39.20 confluence and channel top, and looks like it was just noise- but the short cycle downphase is still somehow in effect, and so far a dud.

Jeff Bailey : 8/24/2005 12:34:11 PM

PACCAR (PCAR) $70.28 +1.25% ... still well off morning high of $70.93.

Jeff Bailey : 8/24/2005 12:33:26 PM

QQQQ $39.16 +1.11% ... pulls free of WEEKLY Pivot/DAILY R2 resistance.

Jeff Bailey : 8/24/2005 12:31:57 PM

Russell 2000 Index (RUT.X) 660.28 +0.73% ... comes back to test morning highs. Looks to leverage WEEKLY R1 (658.62) intra-day pullback support.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/24/2005 12:28:28 PM

Session high for QQQQ at 39.10, but so far on mild volume. 30 min channel resistance is holding at 39.20. Volume picking up as I type. Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/24/2005 12:28:17 PM

General Electric (GE) $34.03 +0.20% ... trying to leverage DAILY Pivot support.

Jeff Bailey : 8/24/2005 12:27:39 PM

10-year YIELD ($TNX.X) up 0.5 bp at 4.192% ... still pinned under DAILY Pivot.

S&P Banks Index (BIX.X) 354.15 -0.05% ...

S&P 500 Index (SPX.X) 1,221.91 +0.35% ...

Dow Industrials (INDU) 10,543 +0.22% ...

Jeff Bailey : 8/24/2005 12:20:12 PM

QQQQ $39.05 +0.82% ... still battles WEEKLY Pivot. With SMH observation, these are critical times.

Jeff Bailey : 8/24/2005 12:18:46 PM

Semiconductor HOLDRs (SMH) $36.91 +0.90% ... just tested yesterday's highs. Still have yesterday's retracement level al_rts loaded.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/24/2005 12:15:56 PM

Combined with a 1B coupon pass deliverable today, the Fed's net add for the day was 1.25B. Tomorrow, the Fed will need to address 20B in various term expiring repos. As well, the Treasury is auctioning 20B in 2-year notes, the results of which are due at 1PM today.

Jeff Bailey : 8/24/2005 12:15:01 PM

Baidu.com (BIDU) $81.17 -1% ... slips back red. Bears defended where they had to.

Jeff Bailey : 8/24/2005 12:13:09 PM

12:00 Internals found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 8/24/2005 12:07:20 PM

One interpretation of this morning's sharp moonshot is that it was a stop runner and will reverse just as quickly. But volume was strong, and has been lighter in the sideways/flag drift that followed. If the short cycle downphase kicking off now doesn't get some solid traction, there will be an excellent chance of blowing out the stronger 39.20-.25 resistance for QQQQ. Bears need to see 38.88-.92 taken out this afternoon.

Jeff Bailey : 8/24/2005 12:05:22 PM

12:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/24/2005 12:04:08 PM

Garmin Ltd. (GRMN) $57.47 +2.04% Link ... continues to impress. Trades recent quarterly earnings high.

Jeff Bailey : 8/24/2005 11:58:50 AM

General Motors (GM) $34.80 +3.81% ...

Jeff Bailey : 8/24/2005 11:57:50 AM

QQQQ $39.056 +0.85% ... continues to battle WEEKLY Pivot.

Jeff Bailey : 8/24/2005 11:56:53 AM

NASDAQ-100 Heatmap at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/24/2005 11:49:32 AM

Bullish day trade long alert ... for PACCAR (PCAR) $70.12 +1.02% here, stop $60.50, target $71.50.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/24/2005 11:46:43 AM

QQQQ is up .29 at 39.02, off a high of 39.09. The pattern of the past 2 days is a tall bullish cup and handle formation, if the bulls can break out above the prior high on strong volume. Because of the oversold daily cycle, there's good potential to the upside, if the bulls can hold the current gains. However, there's also a great deal of resistance above, the first at 39.20, and so the bulls have their work cut out for them. The first issue is the overbought short cycle indicators and the declining pattern off the highs. Bulls will seek to play a higher low for the current decline, if such occurs, while the bears will evaluate a break below 38.90 confluence support. Link

Jonathan Levinson : 8/24/2005 11:42:48 AM

Back and getting my bearings here. The Nasdaq is leading its peers, confirmed by volume breadth with 1.51 advancing NYSE shares for each declining- on the Nasdaq, it's 2.5. The homebuilders are up sharply on the New Home Sales report, with the headline number clearly eclipsing the build in inventories. Crude oil is up to its pre-10:30 levels at 66.25, while gold has dropped. Ten year notes have also slipped negative, with TNX now up .2 bps at 4.189%.

Linda Piazza : 8/24/2005 11:42:36 AM

Checking in for a moment. OEX short-term bears did need that profit-protecting plan that I suggested that they have in place for a test of 564.30-564.60. The OEX dipped a little lower than that before bouncing again. The 30-minute advdec values on Keltner charts suggest a possibility that this morning's high may have been part of a topping-out process for the current short-term move, although the Keltner channels don't preclude the possibility of another bounce in the advdec line up to test 1620-ish resistance again, possibly bringing the OEX higher with it if it does bounce again. Currently, the OEX is trying to steady at the 200-sma, with 15-minute 100/130-ema's at 567.04 and 567.42 also appearing to play a part in short-term resistance. The top of the 15-minute channel that has mostly contained the OEX is up at 568.54, but unless the advdec line is going to do a breakout thing and sustain a move above 1620 and move up toward 2450, it's a bit doubtful that the OEX would get that high, 568.54, during this current move. So, my conclusion is that unless there's going to be a breakout on both the OEX and advdec line, the OEX is in the process of topping out for this short-term move. It may have already done so, but that coil at the top of the climb might suggest at least one more attempt to move higher. As well as charting the coiling formation to see which way it breaks, also watch the advdec line to guage whether that's going to happen. Watch the 100-sma at 564.67 and the 200-ema at 562.92 for potential support and guard bearish profits at those levels. Bulls, be careful at the current level and then at 568.45, the 72-ema and 568.54, the top of that same old Keltner channel, if the OEX should climb. And I'm off for the rest of the day.

Jeff Bailey : 8/24/2005 11:31:11 AM

Current OPEN MM Profiles found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/24/2005 11:20:16 AM

EIA Weekly Refinery Gross Inputs/Capacity/Utilization Table found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/24/2005 11:14:47 AM

10 Most Active ... CHTR $1.45 +26.08, LU $3.11 +4.36%, QQQQ $38.99 +0.67%, SPY $122.26 +0.01%, MSFT $27.03 +0.59%, BCON $5.24 +10.54%, INTC $25.90 +0.69%, JDSU $1.55 +1.30%, SUNW $3.61 +0.55%, CSCO $17.75 -0.05%

Jeff Bailey : 8/24/2005 11:10:17 AM

Yesterday's Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/24/2005 11:09:11 AM

11:00 Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/24/2005 11:02:46 AM

11:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/24/2005 10:50:33 AM

10-year YIELD ($TNX.X) now up 0.9 bp at 4.196% and testing DAILY Pivot.

Jeff Bailey : 8/24/2005 10:49:25 AM

QQQQ $39.05 +0.80% ... testing overlapping WEEKLY Pivot/DAILY R2.

Jeff Bailey : 8/24/2005 10:48:47 AM

Semiconductor HOLDRs (SMH) $36.83 +0.68% ... session high after pegging WEEKLY Pivot at the open.

Jeff Bailey : 8/24/2005 10:39:33 AM

Russell 2000 Index (RUT.X) 659.61 +0.63% ... breaks to highs of the week!

Jeff Bailey : 8/24/2005 10:38:08 AM

EIA Inventory Data Table found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/24/2005 10:34:47 AM

EIA Weekly inventory data Crude oil inventories up 1.852 million barrels, gasoline down 3.245 million barrels, distillates up 1.426 million barrels.

Jeff Bailey : 8/24/2005 10:32:05 AM

Sell Program Premium ... DIA $105.02, SPX 1,218.02, QQQQ $38.70.

Jeff Bailey : 8/24/2005 10:29:46 AM

Baidu.com (BIDU) $82.33 +0.48% ... reversing losses. Takes out yesterday's high. WEEKLY Pivot $85.62/DAILY R1 $85.28 just ahead.

Jeff Bailey : 8/24/2005 10:15:11 AM

Sell Program Premium ... DIA $105.03, SPX 1,217.79, QQQQ $38.75

Jeff Bailey : 8/24/2005 10:13:11 AM

Baidu.com (BIDU) $79.00 -3.65% ... comes back to fill morning gap lower and reclaim DAILY Pivot ($78.41). Session low of $75.00 just shy of DAILY S1 ($74.82).

Jeff Bailey : 8/24/2005 10:09:38 AM

10:00 Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/24/2005 10:03:34 AM

10:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/24/2005 10:01:32 AM

July New Home Sales comes in at 1.410 million annual rate (new record) vs. consensus of 1.328 million annual rate.

Jeff Bailey : 8/24/2005 9:58:59 AM

Sell Program Premium ... DIA $104.89, SPX 1,216.32, QQQQ $38.69.

Jeff Bailey : 8/24/2005 9:58:20 AM

Beverly Enterprises (BEV) $12.69 -0.47% Link ... agrees to $13.00 buyout offer from North American Senior Care.

Jeff Bailey : 8/24/2005 9:55:24 AM

Canadian Imperial Bank (BCM) $58.19 +0.88% Link ... reports Q3 loss of C$5.77 per share, which includes a C$7.45/share Enron-related charge.

Jeff Bailey : 8/24/2005 9:48:26 AM

Ready Mix (AMEX:RMX) 12.40 +12.72% ... IPO priced at $11.00. (1.55 million shares) Indicated range was $9-$11. Underwriters Ladenburg Thalmann and Wunderlich Securities.

Ready Mix said it plans to use the net proceeds from the IPO for the purchase of plant and equipment, the repayment of debt to construction contractor Meadow Valley Corp. (MVCO), its sole shareholder, and for working capital.

Jeff Bailey : 8/24/2005 9:42:25 AM

National Hurrican Center sees tropical storm Katrina moving into central Gulf of Mexico by Monday. Expects storm to intensify into hurricane.

Jeff Bailey : 8/24/2005 9:38:23 AM

10-year YIELD ($TNX.X) down 2.3 bp at 4.165%, with S&P Banks (BIX.X) 353.71 -0.17% ...

Jeff Bailey : 8/24/2005 9:37:43 AM

Sell Program Premium ... DIA $104.89, SPX 1,216.09, QQQQ $38.62

Jeff Bailey : 8/24/2005 9:32:27 AM

New Home Sales for July due out at 10:00 AM EDT.

Linda Piazza : 8/24/2005 9:20:53 AM

I see that Jonathan isn't quite back yet, but will be sometime around noon. I'll also be gone for a big part of the morning, then hope to disappear for the rest of week once more writers are available. Here's what I see this morning. For the first time since early July, the OEX closed the day below its 200-sma yesterday. If it's going to follow the BIX's example, it may have a few days in which it rattles between the 200-sma's resistance and the 200-ema's support. That support might be pre-empted by the 100-sma at 564.61, with that moving average looking more important to the OEX's behavior than the 200-ema over recent months.

The 15-minute Keltner charts say the near-term range is most likely to be from 564.30 on the downside, near that 100-sma, and 568.59 on the upside. Those who have followed my commentary for a long time know that there have been periods in which the OEX's behavior seems to be eerily related to the 72-ema, and this has been one period. Link That 72-ema is near the upside boundary of that Keltner channel that mostly contains the OEX's movements.

Right now, the OEX is between those boundaries, so there's not a new entry right now. For those currently in bearish plays, protect profits near 564.30-564.60, if those should be touched. I'm not currently suggesting long plays, but if there's a bounce, either after or before the 100-sma is approached, watch for a possible rollover beneath the 200-sma again or beneath that 72-ema if the OEX should bounce higher than the 200-sma.

Jeff Bailey : 8/24/2005 9:16:55 AM

BHP Billiton (BHP) $31.53 Link ... indicated lower at $30.80 after the Anglo-Australian mining group's full-year net profit rises to $6.398 billion, from $3.379 billion a year earlier, which includes a $266 million charge relating to closure of an iron plant. The results were in line with analysts' forecasts. Company plans to cut over 400 positions, but foresees aggressive demand for commodities.

Jeff Bailey : 8/24/2005 9:10:40 AM

Applebee's Intl. (APPB) $24.05 Link ... served lower at $22.30 after the restaurant chain projects fiscal-year earnings of $1.33-$1.40 a share and 3Q earnings of 32c-35c. The mean estimate of analysts were for earnings of $1.46 and $0.38, respectively.

Jeff Bailey : 8/24/2005 9:07:47 AM

Electronic Data Systems (EDS) $21.98 Link ... marked higher at $22.50 after the company said it received a realigned 5-year contract from the U.K. Department for Work and Pension. New deal boosts previously estimated revenue from the agency by $1.4 billion.

Jeff Bailey : 8/24/2005 9:03:29 AM

July Durable Orders fell -4.9% ($204.71 billion) vs. consensus of -1.5%. June's previously reported +2.8% was revised lower to +1.9%.

July's 4.9% decline was the biggest monthly drop since January 2004, whean durable goods orders fell by 5.7%.

Excluding orders for transportation equipment, which can swing widely from month to month, all other durable-goods orders fell by 3.2% in July. That compared with a 3.6% increase in June.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/24/2005 8:37:02 AM

Checking in from the road, and should be back around noon today. The markets have just be roiled by the Durable orders news- here are the headlines:

U.S. JULY DURABLE-GOODS SHIPMENTS FALL 0.1%

U.S. JULY DURABLE-GOODS INVENTORIES UP 0.6%

U.S. JUNE DURABLE ORDERS REVISED TO RISE 1.9% VS 2.8%

QQQQ is hitting a low of 38.60, bonds spiking with the TNX down 3.7 bps at 4.15%. Crude oil is up at 66.30 here, presumably helped along by news of a tropical depression threatening Florida and potentially the Golf of Mexico. Natural gas has also been very strong, and neither rally is healthy for the broader equity markets.

QQQQ's daily cycle has been trending in oversold, and is now 1 week overdue for its rally as the weekly cycle downphase begins to assert itself. The bias is to the downside for QQQQ so long as it continues to make lower lows and lower highs. On a cycle basis, the 30 min cycle channel top is at 38.87 QQQQ, and the first sign of trouble for bears will be a break above 72 SMA resistance at 38.75. See you in a few hours.

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