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Jeff Bailey : 8/25/2005 11:06:25 PM

Amazon.com (AMZN) with a conventional (blue), a high close to low close (pink) that both look to still be "in play" and being traded. I add a (green) gap retracement. Right now, "like stock" eBay has been bouncing around its 19.1% (green) gap retracement, where more than likely, some "old bears" are trying to get squared up. Here's my chart at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/25/2005 11:10:15 PM

Amazon.com (AMZN) continued ... Ooops! They archived me. Wait.... let's look at a 2-year chart of AMZN and while not "classic" we can perhaps see/identify the downward 3-gap run. There's actually 5 different gaps, but in a downward run, the "beakaway, or breakdown" comes at a top. The "running" is the second-stage, and is found after some sideways consolidation BELOW the breakaway/breakdown. And finally, the "exhaustion" gap is found. This is when all the bulls usually give up and admit final defeat.

Then a new stage of bullishness can take place. A company gets things back in order, perhaps enteres a new market, or the market they first identified as an early adopter, becomes the longer-term theme of how things get done, or the market is better served.

Here's a daily interval chart of AMZN over the past two years at this Link

See the "gap down" in the upper left corner of the chart in October 2003? That gap NEVER got filled back to the upside.

What would be considered the "running gap" isn't that gap lower in January of 2004 (just below the $57.82 inflection high) yes hindsight is 20/20, but the "running gap" most likely identified in June of 2004 as the stock gaps lower from $44 to then run to a new low.

The "exhaustion gap" could well have been that gap in October 2004 when AMZN falls to $33.00, then stages a strong rally to a new relative high of $45.68.

My concern (being short) is that gap down in February and that HUGE spike in VOLUME of nearly 60 million shares. It is THAT GAP and VOLUME that would mark a more classic "exhaustion gap".

And a "new stage" of bullishness can be underway. Now we've got a "breakaway-looking" gap from a 6-month base, and I'm not sure a bearish trader should be thinking "gaps always get filled"

No ... in fact, if you look at enough charts that do show the breakaway, running and exhaustion, its the BREAKAWAY gap that usually DOES NOT get filled.

If you think about it, the breakaway gap is such a SHOCK to market particpants, a realization that something has changed, that there can be too many buyers waiting/looking for the pullback to "I got to get me some of that action," that the breakaway gaps just doesn't get filled.

Since I'm short, let's think about any short below $40, that has now seen $46.97. What is he/she thinking?

Now think about the patient bull that didn't "get in" below $40.00 and missed out on $46.97, or... feels the point and figure bullish vertical count Link of $73 isn't worth a play to the long side, and buyers are just itching for the pullback entry.

OI Technical Staff : 8/25/2005 9:59:59 PM

The Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

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Results posted in the Market Monitor are hypothetical and OIN does not claim that any reader achieved these exact results. Due to the lag time between research, writing, posting, uploading, reading and execution there will be differences between the actual signal given and the fill achieved by the reader. Fills may be better or worse but in most cases they will be different. The writers will make every effort to give advance notice of intended signals and indicate potential price targets. Your individual results may vary depending on your activity level and aggressiveness. This forum is intended as an education service only. Trading involves risk and should not be attempted by anyone not ready to accept this risk. By acting on any signal in this forum you agree and personally accept this risk.

Jeff Bailey : 8/25/2005 10:00:34 PM

Some "gap backfill" observations ... traders might want to look at some stocks like EW, EBAY and now AMZN that had gapped higher a couple of months ago. Take your retracement bracket and place the bottom at the day the stock gapped higher from, then take the top of the retracement and place it at the low of the gap up.

EBAY Link as an expample gapped up from 07/20 high of $35.43 on 07/21 and the low that day was $39.86. EBAY has not retraced just more that 19.1% of that gap.

EW Link was a stock that James Cramer was talking about tonight. Hmmm... Stock gapped up from 07/21 high of $41.47 to 07/22 low of $43.25 and just just recently refilled 50% of that gap.

Look at those two stock's charts and think about what happened on the gaps (a surprise of some sort), but look at how "close" overhead supply was.

Now ... let's look at AMZN Link . I DO NOT WANT any bearish trader to think "gaps always get filled." Why? There is a technical pattern that traders will play, both bullish, and bearish, which is called a "3-gap run." I had written an educational article in the Bailey's Basics some time back (these articles have been lost forever) where some stocks will show a "break away," then a "running" and a final "exhaustion" gap.

Jeff Bailey : 8/25/2005 9:38:21 PM

Pivot Matrix for Friday at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/25/2005 9:41:32 PM

Marc ... per your 06:02:15 ... Treasury market is in a world of its own, and has been for months. December Fed Fund futures (ff05z) 95.93 is predicting a 120% probablility of at least two more 25 bp rate hikes to 4.0%.

Doesn't make risk/reward sense does it to be buying 10-years of risk at current 4.160%.

Since 06/30/05, here's how various asset classes have performed at this Link and here's how they looked on 08/09/05 when the Fed last raised rates to 3.5% Link

I see how Treasury PRICES have now recouped some losses (P/L %) from 08/09/05 and how equity assets classes have given back some of their gains (P/L %). Good Gravy! The dollar index is right where it was on August 9.

Hmmm.... Dollar + Oil + $Bonds = Equities

Hmmmm .... since 08/09 .. unchanged + up + up = down

Traders and investors might want to think of the dollar as "the gateway to foreign capital inflow/outflows," then think of a fixed amount of capital that will rotate from asset class to asset class.

Certianly the Beetle's Balanced can't track all asset classes, but it does the best it can of the various "bond" classes, and equity classes (Mega cap, large cap, large cap growth, mid cap, small cap and some gold equities)

Jeff Bailey : 8/25/2005 8:17:44 PM

Closing Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/25/2005 8:15:01 PM

Closing Internals found at this Link

Marc Eckelberry : 8/25/2005 6:02:15 PM

Jeff, already seeing support building above 41.43, 38.2%. But we closed below 50 dma at 41.75. Frankly, I have no clue, but if 41.43 gives way, we will be testing 40.13 soon. Seems like bonds are not in agreement with Greenspan, that's for sure. If yields stay low like this, equities will benefit IF a recession is not deemed a threat. Some talk about that in 2006. Listen to Michael Farr here: Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/25/2005 4:43:21 PM

Hey Marc ... what level do you think those bond bears that where shorting 10-year 4.25% are going to capitulate?

Jeff Bailey : 8/25/2005 4:45:08 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles found at this Link ... Today's Activity ... Day trade shorted a full position in shares of Amazon.com (AMZN) at $42.45, then closed out 1/2 of this position at $42.35. ($+0.10, or +0.24%). HOLDING the other 1/2 now for a swing trade with stop at $42.86, targeting $41.05.

Swing trade shorted 1/2 bearish position in shares of Dave & Busters (DAB) at $15.40, stop $16.07, target $14.00.

Jeff Bailey : 8/25/2005 3:49:31 PM

Bearish day trade close out 1/2 position alert ... for Amazon.com (AMZN) $42.35 here.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/25/2005 3:44:36 PM

I put in a signal for the 39 puts at .65 three weeks ago, now trading at .75. One push to 38 and it will be time to get out of that one.

Jim Brown : 8/25/2005 3:44:09 PM

Jonathan, I think we are going to see a sub $37 print before this drop is over but I need a quick drop to $38 so I can roll out to an October position.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/25/2005 3:40:48 PM

Jim, the light volume supports the interpretation of today's range as a bear flag- but the volume breadth has been positive all day. Not by much, but still positive. If it's as bearish as the flat range off yesterday's drop suggests, then we should see a resumption of that drop tomorrow AM. If it is a bear flag, an equal leg down from here would target the 37.90 QQQQ area.

Jim Brown : 8/25/2005 3:39:47 PM

This was a very anemic dead cat bounce from Wednesday's drop. The only positive thing you can say about the Dow/Nasdaq is that they are holding in positive territory, barely. My initial targets for this downtrend are still Dow 10250, Nasdaq 2050 and S&P 1185-1190.

Jeff Bailey : 8/25/2005 3:36:04 PM

Amazon.com (AMZN) $42.26 -0.25% ... day trader's chart at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 8/25/2005 3:26:36 PM




Jeff Bailey : 8/25/2005 3:27:37 PM

Amazon.com (AMZN) $42.37 (unch) ... Strategy alert. Let's do this .... let's look to close out 1/2 of today's day trade short by the close ($42.20 would be nice), then let's hold the other 1/2 as a swing trade short, with a stop just above today's highs. While were in it, might as well give it a chance to see if it wants to backfill some of that gap from 07/26-07/27 Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/25/2005 3:16:51 PM

Dow Transport (TRAN) components sorted by 5-day % gain/loss at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 8/25/2005 3:23:38 PM

From Marketwatch:

Treasurys close little changed ahead of Greenspan speech

Perhaps the title of the Greenspan speech (tomorrow at 10AM) has something to do with it: "Reflections on Central Banking." Probably not likely to be one of the more dramatic of moments for the Chairman.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/25/2005 3:11:33 PM

Ten year note yields finished the day -1.9 bps at 4.16%, ZN bonds +7/64 at 111 55/64.

Jeff Bailey : 8/25/2005 3:10:53 PM

03:00 Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/25/2005 3:02:46 PM

03:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 8/25/2005 3:00:12 PM

QQQQ's holding a higher range abouve the 72 SMA here- it would be more interesting were I not counting in 1/10ths of a cent, but nonetheless it shifts the intraday bias in favor of the bulls. 38.70-.72 is the key test shaping up, but the price has been creeping higher toward it: Link

Jonathan Levinson : 8/25/2005 2:48:31 PM

Stepping away for 5 minutes.

Jeff Bailey : 8/25/2005 2:44:28 PM

S&P Banks (BIX.X) 351.53 +0.17% ... have put together a little bounce back near the morning high of 351.83.

10-year YIELD ($TNX.X) down 1.3 bp at 4.166%. 30-year ($TYX.X) really finds the buyers with yield down 2.3 bp at 4.375%.

"The Pac" PHF $9.90 +1.02% ...

Jeff Bailey : 8/25/2005 2:36:59 PM

Dave & Busters (DAB) $15.84 -15.11% ... bugger traded $16.05.

Jeff Bailey : 8/25/2005 2:35:32 PM

Today feels like a "short covering day" where shorts are doing some covering, but not very aggressive. As if sitting some bids until filled, then backing off a bit, then coming with a bid.

If so, the question is, will buyers pull their bids based on today's Treasury YIELD action, and Oil's continued creep higher?

Jonathan Levinson : 8/25/2005 2:35:54 PM




I believe that these will be new defendants to the 2003 suit against WYE, GSK and others.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/25/2005 2:21:38 PM

LOS ANGELES (Reuters) - California's attorney general said on Thursday the state has filed a lawsuit accusing 39 pharmaceutical companies of bilking the state's Medicaid program by inflating drug prices.

Attorney General Bill Lockyer said he has added companies including Amgen Inc. (AMGN.O: Quote, Profile, Research) and GlaxoSmithKline Plc (GSK.L: Quote, Profile, Research) to a previous complaint accusing Abbott Laboratories (ABT.N: Quote, Profile, Research) and Wyeth (WYE.N: Quote, Profile, Research) of hiding the true costs of their drugs so that payments from Medi-Cal -- California's health insurance program for the poor -- would be artificially inflated.


Jeff Bailey : 8/25/2005 2:22:47 PM

Amazon.com (AMZN) $42.47 +0.23% ... afternoon low came at $42.33, but day trade bear really needs $42.53 to hold resistance into 03:00 PM EDT.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/25/2005 2:19:37 PM

The SOX bounced relatively higher than the Qs in the morning, but are curently testing their afternoon low, currently printing 465.92. QQQQ has yet to break 38.50 this afternoon, but volume breadth is not strengthening and the short cycle is no longer rising or falling, just drifting sideways. It's either a bear flag on light volume, or a complex bottom- but the very light volume here doesn't look bullish to me. Bulls need to see that 38.72 break, while bears will want to see how it behaves at 38.40. Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/25/2005 2:19:30 PM

10-year Yield ($TNX.X) down 2.2 bp at 4.157%. Just kissed its QCharts WEEKLY S2/DAILY S1 correlation.

Thinking .... if stocks are going to close lower, then 10-year YIELD close below 41.51, or 4.151% needed.

BIX.X 350.75 -0.04% ... still "flat"

Jeff Bailey : 8/25/2005 2:14:01 PM

02:00 Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/25/2005 2:03:20 PM

02:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 8/25/2005 1:57:57 PM

Crude oil +.15 at 67.475 here.

Jeff Bailey : 8/25/2005 1:57:48 PM

S&P Banks Index (BIX.X) 350.73 -0.05% ... has been riding along WEEKLY S2 since 12:30 PM EDT.

10-year YIELD ($TNX.X) down 1.7 bp yet to re-test WEEKLY S2 as it did yesterday.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/25/2005 1:53:32 PM

QQQQ has traded 38M shares so far, not yet half of yesterday's 95M. Price is chopping and flopping sideways, the short cycle indicators now in an upphase of sorts. Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/25/2005 1:50:12 PM

Swing trade adjust bearish stop alert ... for Dave & Busters (DAB) $15.94 -14.57%, to $16.07.

Jeff Bailey : 8/25/2005 1:42:13 PM

Bearish day trade lower stop alert ... for Amazon.com (AMZN) $42.43 +0.14% ... to $42.57.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/25/2005 1:30:51 PM

Crude oil is up to a .025 loss at 67.30.

Jeff Bailey : 8/25/2005 1:11:36 PM

01:00 Internals found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 8/25/2005 1:11:14 PM

The Dow and Nasdaq are negative for this year-to-date, while the SPX is up .5%.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/25/2005 1:07:41 PM

QQQQ's short cycle isn't yet reversed, and a wavelet bounce looks like it's about to top out. But the bears have been doing their best to fumble this decline off the session high, and they're running out of time. If 38.50 doesn't break during the next 10-15 minutes, then I'll be looking to play the next short cycle upphase for a retest of today's session high and a likely 30 min cycle upphase if it's strong. The intraday cycle's are a bit of a mess, but the weak decline is feeling increasingly bullish to me during the past 45 minutes. Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/25/2005 1:02:01 PM

01:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 8/25/2005 12:40:30 PM

Volume breadth is down to +1.2:1 for the NYSE and +1.1:1 for the Nasdaq. Still positive, but just barely, and the Nasdaq has weakened relative to the NYSE. TRIN and TRINQ are in neutral sell territory at 1.12 and 1.26 respectively.

Jeff Bailey : 8/25/2005 12:39:31 PM

Swing trade short alert ... for 1/2 bearish position in Dave & Busters (DAB) $15.40 -17.47% Link here, stop $16.00, target $14.00.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/25/2005 12:20:56 PM

QQQQ's short cycle downphase has so far yielded all of a 10 cent move off the session high, with price not yet bouncing but far from heavy. Volume breadth holds positive, but overall volume is very light, below 1/3 of yesterday's 95M QQQQs traded so far. Bears need a break of the 38.49 low to reignite the 30/60 min downphases, while bulls need a break of 38.72 to reverse them. Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/25/2005 12:11:05 PM

12:00 Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/25/2005 12:02:50 PM

12:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/25/2005 11:58:16 AM

Amazon.com (AMZN) ... updated day trader's chart at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/25/2005 11:54:34 AM

10-year YIELD ($TNX.X) down 1.0 bp at 4.169% ...

Jeff Bailey : 8/25/2005 11:53:42 AM

Amazon.com (AMZN) $42.45 +0.18% ...

Jonathan Levinson : 8/25/2005 11:53:16 AM

2-day 100-tick view of QQQQ, with the 60 min cycle channel flat and trying to creep up to join the foundering 30 min channel. If this is a bear flag, bears need a break very soon. If not, a move above the 30 min channel top at 38.75 should be enough to confirm an upside breakout and invalidation of the flag. Link

Jonathan Levinson : 8/25/2005 11:40:37 AM

QQQQ update at this Link , breaking back below 72 SMA support and confirming the short cycle rollover. 30 min channel support has risen to 38.51, and so this will be a critical decline for bears and bulls. A bounce from a higher low should confirm a 60 min channel bottom.

Jeff Bailey : 8/25/2005 11:41:56 AM

10-year YIELD ($TNX.X) down 0.4 bp at 4.175% and "comfortable" around its DAILY Pivot so far today. Overlapping yield support at WEEKLY S2/DAILY S1 is a focal point today. Kick above 4.203 could signal some re-allocation of assets.

However, with our "junk bond" Pacholder High Yield (PHF) $9.89 +0.91% so impressive, no signal for higher yield from Treasuries at this point.

I do have a sell order at $10.00 on the remaining 1/2 bullish position (see MM 03/17/05 10:33:17 when I began accumulation again)

Jeff Bailey : 8/25/2005 11:25:56 AM

Amazon.com (AMZN) $42.60 +0.51% ... updated day trader's chart at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 8/25/2005 11:24:29 AM

A short cycle downphase is due to kick off on a drop below the QQQQ 38.60-.62 level. Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/25/2005 11:22:12 AM

Bearish day trade update alert ... for Amazon.com (AMZN) $42.60 +0.54% ... from a day trade short perspective, stock should not have come back above $42.53. Let's lower stop to $42.68, and raise bearish target to $42.25.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/25/2005 11:20:24 AM

The Fed's coupon pass will be 1.298B, deliverable tomorrow.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/25/2005 11:17:36 AM

Off-topic: There are actually 32 bids on this- wish I had thought of it first. Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/25/2005 11:14:10 AM

Yesterday's Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/25/2005 11:13:15 AM

11:00 Internals found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 8/25/2005 11:06:30 AM

Session low for crude oil at 66.475, -.85.

Jeff Bailey : 8/25/2005 11:04:33 AM

11:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 8/25/2005 11:04:49 AM

From the Treasury website at 11AM:

The Treasury will auction 13-week and 26-week Treasury bills totaling $32,000 million to refund an estimated $35,013 million of publicly held 13-week and 26-week Treasury bills maturing September 1, 2005, and to pay down approximately $3,013 million.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/25/2005 10:58:07 AM

The Fed has announced yet another coupon pass, no quantum yet. It will be deliverable tomorrow, another permanent addition to its dealers' reserves. There have been many more such adds than usual lately- might have something to do with the meeting called for mid-Sept. concerning derivatives, the link to which I posted here yesterday.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/25/2005 10:54:05 AM

Volume breadth +1.57:1 on the NYSE, 1.64:1 on the Nasdaq. The TRIN and TRINQ have risen to the high end of neutral at .99 and .97 respectively.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/25/2005 10:47:34 AM

Back. QQQQ is testing today's pivot at 38.68, though the 30 and 60 min channel tops have yet to deviate from their 38.72 resistance. The short cycle upphase has reasserted itself but is at 73%, nearly overbought. So far, given yesterday's drop, this is starting to have a dead-cat feel to it. Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/25/2005 10:43:27 AM

10-year YIELD ($TNX.X) up 1.0 bp at 4.189%.

S&P Banks (BIX.X) 351.48 +0.15% ...

SPX 1,211.84 +0.18% ...

Jeff Bailey : 8/25/2005 10:38:53 AM

Current OPEN MM Profiles found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/25/2005 10:30:42 AM

Bearish day trade short entry alert ... for Amazon.com (AMZN) $42.45.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/25/2005 10:30:20 AM

Stepping away for 10 minutes.

Jeff Bailey : 8/25/2005 10:30:08 AM

Amazon.com (AMZN) $42.37 (unch) ... day trader's chart at this Link ... no fill on short entry of $42.45 at this point.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/25/2005 10:27:49 AM

TOL announced good numbers this morning, doubling its earnings from Q3 last year and beating estimates by 8 cents. The stock blew out yesterday's high, but reversed after the open just as suddenly and is now probing session lows within yesterday's range, currrently -.58 at 49.42. The high was 51.72.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/25/2005 10:25:18 AM

The 30 and 60 min channels for QQQQ now line up at 38.40 to the downside, 38.70-.72 to the upside. Price is hugging the 72 SMA and is therefore without bias. My guess is that it will break to the upside, but below 38.70.72, it's just noise. Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/25/2005 10:14:49 AM

10:00 Internals found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 8/25/2005 10:08:43 AM

QQQQ's now in a short cycle downphase that appears every bit as weak as the upphase which preceded it. Just sideways chop within the 60 min cycle downphase: Link

Jonathan Levinson : 8/25/2005 10:07:43 AM

Volume breadth is a little weak but still positive, +1.19:1 on teh NYSE and +1.74:1 on the Nasdaq.

Jeff Bailey : 8/25/2005 10:04:38 AM

10:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 8/25/2005 10:02:49 AM

Session high for ten year notes, TNX down 1.3 bps at 4.166%.

Jeff Bailey : 8/25/2005 10:02:27 AM

Bearish day trade short setup alert ... for Amazon.com (AMZN) $42.11 -0.61%. Let's look to short a bounce back to $42.45, stop $42.82, and target $41.75.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/25/2005 10:01:58 AM




Jeff Bailey : 8/25/2005 9:57:09 AM

PETsMart (PETM) $26.00 -8.80% Link ... sharply lower and probing 2-year support at $26.00 after the pet products retailer said it earned $35.7 million, or $0.24 a share, which was up from $29.1 million, or $0.19 a share, in the year-ago period and $0.02 above consensus. Sales came in at $899.1 million, up 11.6% from year-ago levels. Revenues were shy of the $905 million consensus.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/25/2005 9:54:18 AM

The Fed annnounces a 10.25B overnight repo, bringing the day net to +2.25B.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/25/2005 9:49:34 AM

I agree with Marc as to a drop for QQQQ, because the short cycle upphase is just about overbought, and has generated only poor/corrective traction so far.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/25/2005 9:42:46 AM

QQQQ's just tried and failed at the 72 SMA at 38.60, the first test of the line since yesterday's 1:30PM break below it: Link

Jonathan Levinson : 8/25/2005 9:37:57 AM

Of the Fed's 20B expiring today, 13B was via 14-day repo which has been replaced with a 12B 14-day repo. There remains 8B to be addressed at the 10AM announcement.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/25/2005 9:36:49 AM

Volume breadth is currently strong at +1.97:1 on the NYSE, +2.9:1 on the Nasdaq. TRIN and TRINQ are neutral at .85 and .61 respectively.

Jeff Bailey : 8/25/2005 9:36:14 AM

Emdeon (HLTH) $10.93 -5.20% Link ... which recently changed its name from WebMD, said it has priced $300 million in 3.125% convertible senior notes due 2025. Interest on the notes is payable semi-annually on 03/01 and 09/01 of each year, beginning on March 1, 2006.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/25/2005 9:29:03 AM

QQQQ's holding a 7 cent gain, which has so far been sufficient to stall the 30 min cycle downphase within the ongoing 60 min cycle downphase. The daily cycle remains buried and trending in oversold. Bulls need a move above former 38.70 support to suggest anything more than a deadcat bounce. Yesterday's S2 lines up with 30 min channel support at 38.40.

Jeff Bailey : 8/25/2005 9:28:35 AM

York Intl. (YRK) $41.75 Link ... Atop this morning's most active list and higher at $56.22 after announcing it has agreed to be acquired by Johnson Controls (JCI) $56.77 Link for $2.4 billion in an all cash deal.

Linda Piazza : 8/25/2005 9:26:38 AM

Just checking in for a moment this morning. Was it a coincidence that the OEX ended the day one cent below its 38.2% retracement of the bear-market decline? I don't think so. In addition, the rising trendline off the April low crosses near 560, so the OEX approaches levels at which some bulls might feel ready to test the waters with a long play. (I don't recommend that for our readers, but am talking about other retail and perhaps institutional players.) After yesterday's steep decline, a choppy doji day, perhaps a long-legged doji day, wouldn't be unexpected as the OEX tests this support, so be careful if in bearish plays to have your profit-protecting plan in place. The advdec line ended at one level of Keltner support, but if it should gap lower and head down this morning, watch -1700 for another level of potential support. So, there's the possibility but not necessarily the probability of more downside this morning, but also the possibility, perhaps a bit stronger, of an attempt to steady. If OEX 560 gives way at the close today, something more serious is underway, but if it's pierced intraday and then the OEX closes above it, that just shows the effort to steady there. Something more serious may be even if there's an attempt to bounce, but we won't know that until we see where the bounce takes the OEX if it begins. I see today as a day to be particularly cautious and maybe sit out the action if you're particularly conservative.

Jeff Bailey : 8/25/2005 9:17:41 AM

Program Trading Levels for Thursday ... HL Camp & Company has their computers set for program buying at $+2.46 and set for program selling at $-0.04.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/25/2005 8:35:32 AM

Ten year notes have risen slightly, back up to pre-data levels with a 1/16 gain, TNX still 4.184%. QQQQ is up .08 at 38.58, gold +1.50 at 440.50.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/25/2005 8:30:37 AM




U.S. 4-WK AVG. JOBLESS CLAIMS UP 1,250 TO 315,000


Jonathan Levinson : 8/25/2005 8:21:44 AM

Ten year notes are flat, with ten year note yields opening +.5 bps at 4.184% ahead of the initial claims data.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/25/2005 7:51:02 AM

Equities are up, ES trading 1211.5, NQ 1566.5, YM 10450 and QQQQ +.05 at 38.55. Gold is up 1.7 to 440.70, silver is up 2.7 cents to 6.948, ten year notes are down 1/16 to 111 11/16 and crude oil is down 37.5 cents to 66.95.

We await the 8:30 release of initial claims, est. 315K, and at 10AM, the Help Wanted Index, est. 38.

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