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OI Technical Staff : 8/26/2005 9:59:59 PM

The Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

Disclaimer: Stocks discussed in the Market Monitor are for educational purposes only and any analysis is not meant to imply a recommendation for or against that stock. The analysts in this forum as on any other website are prohibited by the SEC from giving any specific advice to ANY individual trader. All information posted is for ALL readers and is not meant to be directed to any individual. Our analysts cannot answer any email questions regarding any specific stock. Please do not ask and please do not take offense if requests are denied.

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Jeff Bailey : 8/26/2005 8:11:00 PM

QQQQ Short Interest ... Jonathan may have already updated you on short interest in the Qs, but if not, here it is at this Link

For those of you/us that like to "count cards," the QQQQ closed at $37.70 on June 15, $38.89 on July 15, and $39.44 on August 15.

Jeff Bailey : 8/26/2005 7:45:54 PM

Amazon.com (AMZN) reviewed this stock's chart last night and talked about bull/bear position. Since I'm short the underlying shares here too, then quick look at short interest Link

Remember, this stock gapped higher on 07/26, so benchmark to 07/15 would have had 36.7 million on the "wrong side" of the gap.

AMZN "bottomed" on May 04/27/05. Note some decline in short interest between 05/13 and 6/15.

August 15 short interest shows a build of roughly 1 million.

Jeff Bailey : 8/26/2005 7:34:22 PM

Dave & Busters (DAB) short interest alert ... I don't know about you, but I was a bit surprised how DAB edged up in Thursday's trade. As I try to get some things set in my mind before taking off for vacation on Thursday, I took a quick look at short interest on DAB at this Link

I think I'm picking up on some things from Level II today, that combined with yesterday's action, suggest shorts locked in the bulk of their profits yesterday, and are now trying to be patient with their covering.

Those of you with Level II capability, might want to keep an eye on NASDAQ and PHLX. The NYSE specialist looks like he/she is just doing his job, but the NASDAQ tends to be able to point out where the stock will trade at some intra-day inflection points.

Yesterday, when we were already short and I had set our stop at $16.00, NASDAQ was at $16.00. I thought to myself "there's no way this stock will break above the morning gap high." Sure enough, DAB does break above the morning high ($15.75).

So... I adjusted our stops to $16.07, DAB trades $16.05, then falters.

Today, DAB looks like it is going to just fall and close at session lows, but up pops NASDAQ outside the market with an offer of $15.15, when DAB is trading below $15.00. As soon as NASDAQ came with that offer, up comes DAB to close at that price.

I guess my point to traders that are short right now is this. Be disciplined and we want to try and "make sure" that we don't get caught in a short-term squeeze, especially if a trader is overleveraged.

DAB's earnings warning yesterday, isn't just "gasoline/consumer" related. They may have paid too much for the Jullian assets, which aren't going to be accretive, like management thought.

As a short in DAB, I'm not worried about bullish buying at this point. It's the old profitable bears that I'm a bit more worried about.

Jeff Bailey : 8/26/2005 5:52:59 PM

Closing U.S. Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/26/2005 5:11:45 PM

Closing Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/26/2005 4:49:17 PM

Weekly blotter of CLOSED trades found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/26/2005 4:22:48 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles found at this Link ... Today's activity ... swing trade shorted the ishares Lehman 20-year (AMEX:TLT) at $94.54, stop $94.80, targeting $92.50.

Tab Gilles : 8/26/2005 3:53:19 PM

Note the extremely positive correlation of WTIC/$TRAN since Oct '02. This relationship, however, broke down earlier in March this year - as the Dow Transports has been significantly underperforming while the price of crude oil continued to climb. Is the underperformance of the Dow Transports signaling an imminent topping out of crude oil prices?

Murphy Oil (MUR) Link Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/26/2005 3:35:57 PM

Shutting down for 15-minutes. Having some clogged computer memory problems.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/26/2005 3:27:19 PM

I will need to leave in the next few minutes to try to catch the bank before it closes. QQQQ's 30 and 60 min cycles remain in upphases that launched from bullish divergences off the morning lows, and a close above 38.70 would be enough for a bullish engulfing/key reversal print if the bulls can manage it into the close. Absent a close back below 38.40, the picture should be set up for more upside followthrough into Monday morning. Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/26/2005 3:26:52 PM

Wellpoint (WLP) $72.85 -0.06% ... WEEKLY Pivot $72.75

Jeff Bailey : 8/26/2005 3:25:27 PM

HMO Index (HMO.X)

Jonathan Levinson : 8/26/2005 3:25:11 PM

SAN FRANCISCO(MarketWatch) -- Florida Power & Light Co. said Friday driving wind and heavy rain from Hurricane Katrina had cut electric service to 1.45 million homes and businesses, or nearly 35% of the utility's 4.3 million customers, as the storm swept across populous southern Florida. The company, a unit of FPL Group (FPL) , said most outages were in Miami-Dade and Broward Counties. FPL said it had about 11,700 emergency crews working to restore power, 4,100 of them brought in ahead of the storm from other states. The company said crews had managed to restore power to about 350,000 customers, leaving 1.1 million still off the grid.

Jeff Bailey : 8/26/2005 3:15:33 PM

03:00 Internals found at this

Jeff Bailey : 8/26/2005 3:13:28 PM

03:00 Market Watch at this Link

Tab Gilles : 8/26/2005 3:12:39 PM

$NASI Still signaling bearish for COMPQ/NDX. Link

Been short via Profund USPIX fund. (see 8/8/05 10:17AM post)

$NDX & QQQQ Link Link

Jonathan Levinson : 8/26/2005 3:12:27 PM

QQQQ's 30 min channel has finally turned up to join the oscillators, and upper 30 min channel resistance is now 39.64, lined up with R1. The first sign of trouble for bulls on this basis will be a break of 72 SMA support at 38.45: Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/26/2005 3:10:45 PM

Sell Program Premium ... SPX 1,208.59

Jeff Bailey : 8/26/2005 2:59:40 PM

Bank of America (BAC) $42.85 -0.51% ... after session low of $42.62. WEEKLY S1 here at $42.82

Jeff Bailey : 8/26/2005 2:58:39 PM

S&P Banks (BIX.X) 348.07 -0.91% ... did undercut upward trend on bar chart with session low of 346.78.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/26/2005 2:57:37 PM

QQQQ's traded 49.7M shares so far today, compared with yesterday's 95M. Yesterday had been very light, however, and I don't trust that 95M figure reported by IB/Quotetracker. Either way, volume breadth is still negative, -3.12:1 on the NYSE and -1.51:1 on the Nasdaq despite QQQQ printing green here, up .04 at 38.54.

Tab Gilles : 8/26/2005 2:56:39 PM

Materials Select Sector (XLB) Watch the $27 level as a possible entry point. Link Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/26/2005 2:52:28 PM

Dave & Busters (DAB) alert $15.06 -3.76% ...

Jeff Bailey : 8/26/2005 2:50:46 PM

Coca Cola (KO) $43.69 -0.27% ...

Jeff Bailey : 8/26/2005 2:47:41 PM

Wellpoint (WLP) $72.71 -0.26% ...

Jeff Bailey : 8/26/2005 2:47:15 PM

Goldman Sachs (GS) $110.34 -0.14% ...

Jeff Bailey : 8/26/2005 2:46:58 PM

Amazon.com (AMZN) $42.57 +0.61% ...

Jeff Bailey : 8/26/2005 2:45:41 PM

Red Robin Gourmet Burger (RRGB) $46.03 +0.52% ...

Jeff Bailey : 8/26/2005 2:44:00 PM

Dave & Busters (DAB) $15.09 -3.57% ... session low.

Jeff Bailey : 8/26/2005 2:42:54 PM

Oil down $1.34 at $66.15

Jonathan Levinson : 8/26/2005 2:43:19 PM

QQQQ - Exit Point Alert -

Out QQQQ short from 38.55 at 38.50.

Take the nickel- this drop isn't happening as fast as I expected.

Jeff Bailey : 8/26/2005 2:33:14 PM

GSTI Software (GSO.X) ... 160.70 -0.02% ... slips back red.

Jeff Bailey : 8/26/2005 2:29:07 PM

Oh my! ... 30-year up 3.1 bp at 4.396% ... "risk becomes known."

Jonathan Levinson : 8/26/2005 2:28:24 PM

The current move has breached upper 30 min keltner resistance at the pivot. Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/26/2005 2:28:17 PM

Buy Program Premium ... SPX 1,209.94.

Jeff Bailey : 8/26/2005 2:27:28 PM

Buy Program Premium ... SPX 1,208.87

Jonathan Levinson : 8/26/2005 2:27:12 PM

QQQQ - Entry Point Alert -

Short QQQQ at 38.55, stop 38.62

Jeff Bailey : 8/26/2005 2:24:16 PM

Computer Technology Index (XCI.X) 713.05 +0.02% ... bids green.

Jeff Bailey : 8/26/2005 2:22:51 PM

GSTI Software (GSO.X) 160.77 +0.01% ... bids green.

Jeff Bailey : 8/26/2005 2:19:34 PM

TLT moves to new session low ... 10-year/30-year yields move to session high in unison.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/26/2005 2:16:03 PM

The 30 min cycle is in gear to the upside with the 60, but QQQQ has made it all of 13 cents off the low after several hours. The short cycle downphase is still in progress and still getting poor traction, and it might be that the short cycle is what's keeping a lid on otherwise bullish action. If so, then the break above 38.55, which is currently 30/60 min cycle and pivot resistance, could pack a punch. A break below 38.35 could stall the 30 min cycle upphase, however.

Jeff Bailey : 8/26/2005 2:13:19 PM

02:00 Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/26/2005 2:05:41 PM

02:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 8/26/2005 2:03:05 PM

Looks like the stop was too tight. Should have left it up at 38.52. QQQQ's coming in for the test of 38.36- below that, the bears will have the ball again.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/26/2005 1:52:53 PM

QQQQ - Exit Point Alert -

Out QQQQ short at 38.45, breakeven. The short cycle downphase went nowhere.

Jeff Bailey : 8/26/2005 1:45:52 PM

Slight bid in dollar. What do you think? Some foreign capital coming in to buy this 5-year yield ($FVX.X) which has jumped 4.0 bp to 4.078%?

Me thinks reason to short longer-dated in here, is a bond trader is a bond trader and might sell some longer-dated, to gobble up some shorter-dated.

Jeff Bailey : 8/26/2005 1:41:39 PM

01:00 Internals found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 8/26/2005 1:39:50 PM

GE's just printed a lower low here at 33.37, but it's just a 13 cent loss on the day. QQQQ's failure at flag resistance is hardly causing the bulls sweats or palpitations, and unless 38.36 breaks soon, our breakeven stop will be in jeopardy. Below 38.36, the flag support will be broken, and 38.20 support comes into view. Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/26/2005 1:35:50 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/26/2005 1:32:30 PM

U.S. Dollar Index (dx00y) 87.68 +0.03% (30-minute delayed) ... see earlier MM post.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/26/2005 1:28:39 PM

QQQQ - Stop Loss Adjustment Alert -

QQQQ short at 39.45, lower stop to breakeven

Short cycle sell signal final printed: Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/26/2005 1:22:37 PM

Correction to target alert ... target for today's bearish profile in the TLT is $92.50 (not $93.50). If I go back and correct that post, the time stamp will then be incorrect.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/26/2005 1:20:21 PM

Volume breadth -4.24:1 on the NYSE and -2.1:1 on the Nasdaq. But price is firm, with QQQQ's short cycle rollover stalled right at our short entry point. If it doesn't get moving soon, I'll close the play and protect our already-tight stop.

Jeff Bailey : 8/26/2005 1:08:26 PM

Swing trade short alert ... for the ishares Lehman 20-year (AMEX:TLT) $94.54 here, stop $94.80, target $93.50.

Jeff Bailey : 8/26/2005 1:04:49 PM

01:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 8/26/2005 1:04:15 PM

QQQQ update at this Link with the short cycle indicators looking ready to roll. The uncertainty comes from the wavelet, which is nearing the bottom of its latest downphase. Bears need to see 38.39, the 72 SMA, broken to confirm a new short cycle downphase. A bounce will target the top of the short cycle channel at 38.47.

Jeff Bailey : 8/26/2005 1:02:16 PM

Dave & Busters (DAB) $15.15 -3.19% ... here's a chart I've put together on DAB that I think is "in play" at this Link ... I developed the "fitted 38.2%" for times like these. I think yesterday's low of $14.10 was a "bad tick" and the actual low was $14.60 (this would impact a bearish vertical count calculation from the PnF Chart). Here's the PnF chart that does have a trade at $14.50 accounted for. Link

Now ... look at the BLUE retracement. See where its 38.2% retracement is? Bears really need the break below $15.00 to see further spill lower. Can also think "I need a 3-box reversal higher in the point and figure chart at some point, before a bearish vertical count column is completed."

Trade strategy is to be short, but limit risk with partial positions, with some room for a 3-box reversal.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/26/2005 12:46:03 PM

Crude oil +.35 at 67.85 here, Natural gas +.235 at 10.06.

Jeff Bailey : 8/26/2005 12:35:31 PM

S&P Banks Index (BIX.X) 347.97 -0.93% ... updated bar chart with WEEKLY/MONTHLY pivot retracement and upwrad trend from 05/10/04 relative low to the more recent 04/21/05 higher relative low at this Link ... Bank of America (BAC) $42.82 -0.58% ... Link

Jonathan Levinson : 8/26/2005 12:24:10 PM

QQQQ - Entry Point Alert -

Short QQQQ at 38.45, stop 38.52

Short cycle running out of race track, price at top of the bear flag. Link

Jonathan Levinson : 8/26/2005 12:17:47 PM

QQQQ breaks 72 SMA resistance and challenges the bear wedge top, launching from an overbought short cycle reading. Look for a confirmation if 38.40 is retested and holds.

Jeff Bailey : 8/26/2005 12:15:03 PM

12:00 Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/26/2005 12:05:12 PM

12:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/26/2005 12:03:01 PM

Microsoft (MSFT) $26.96 -0.25% ... #5 most active and QQQQ/NDX heavyweight. WEEKLY Pivot $26.89 served support early.

Jeff Bailey : 8/26/2005 12:01:14 PM

S&P Banks Index (BIX.X) 347.71 -1.01% ... still "out of favor"

Jeff Bailey : 8/26/2005 12:00:43 PM

10-year YIELD ($TNX.X) up just 0.6 bp now. Middle of day's range.

Jeff Bailey : 8/26/2005 11:57:00 AM

Google (GOOG) $382.60 +0.35% ... relative strength.

Jeff Bailey : 8/26/2005 11:56:37 AM

Baidu.com (BIDU) $80.15 +1.45% ... relative strength.

Jeff Bailey : 8/26/2005 11:56:15 AM

Yahoo (YHOO) $33.73 +0.74% ... showing some relative strength today.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/26/2005 11:56:23 AM

- QQQQ cancel entry point alert -

Cancel the entry to go long QQQQ at 39.21... will reassess if/when the price gets there.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/26/2005 11:54:55 AM

Session high for crude oil at 67.825 here.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/26/2005 11:54:21 AM

The 30 min cycle downphase has ground its way slowly lower, while the 60 min upphase has somehow not reversed. This is either a huge bullish divergence for the 60, or a very weak upphase. I don't find this analysis at all helpful, and it's further compounded by the trending oversold daily cycle. Because the weekly is at the start of a so-far strong downphase, that's the immediate bias, but in the short term, I believe a bounce is due. So far, the short cycle bounce has been weak, setting us up for a drop when it finally rolls. A break from this low bounce would target 1st support at 39.20 QQQQ, but I'm not confident that it will hold because of how weak the bounce has been since 10AM.

Jeff Bailey : 8/26/2005 11:53:27 AM

Program Trading Levels for Friday ... HL Camp & Company has their computer set for program buying at $+2.37 and set for program selling at $-0.29.

Jeff Bailey : 8/26/2005 11:49:09 AM

Amazon.com (AMZN) $42.45 +0.33% ... middle of yesterday's range.

Jeff Bailey : 8/26/2005 11:45:14 AM

Be alert for an asset allocation should dollar bid green. U.S. Dollar Index (dx00y) 87.56 -0.09% (30-minute delayed) off its lows of 87.43. Al_rt set at DAILY Pivot (87.68)

Jeff Bailey : 8/26/2005 11:42:44 AM

Volatile session in Treasuries ... 5-year now higher by 3.6 bp, 10-year up 1.8 bp, 30-year up 1.0 bp.

Jeff Bailey : 8/26/2005 11:40:51 AM

Goldman Sachs (GS) $109.35 -1.04% Link ...

Jeff Bailey : 8/26/2005 11:39:43 AM

Broker/Dealer Index (XBD.X) 166.77 -0.92% Link ... testing WEEKLY S2 here. Sets up for test of rising 50-day SMA. Should see a pickup in profit taking from bulls.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/26/2005 11:38:51 AM

Session low for ES, but QQQQ is still 8 cents above its earlier low. Volume is still quite low for QQQQ, and while the short cycle upphase is sputtering, it has not yet ended. A move below 38.30 would change that. Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/26/2005 11:29:54 AM

Silicon Motion (SIMO) $11.95 +5.47% ... recent IPO making a move.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/26/2005 11:29:53 AM

Volume breadth -3.79:1 for the NYSE, -2.17:1 for the Nasdaq.

Jeff Bailey : 8/26/2005 11:20:40 AM

11:00 Internals found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 8/26/2005 11:07:41 AM

QQQQ is testing 72 SMA resistance for the first time today: Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/26/2005 11:02:53 AM

11:00 Market Watch found at this Link ... 30-year YIELD has reversed earlier price gains.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/26/2005 11:01:46 AM

Note the sharp drop in the ten year treasury note over the past 45 mins: Link . Trying to find a bottom off the 111 41/64 print.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/26/2005 10:58:06 AM

Session low for ten year notes, TNX up .9 bps at 4.169%.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/26/2005 10:55:10 AM

QQQQ - Entry Point Alert -

Go long QQQQ at 38.21 if touched, stop 38.12

Jonathan Levinson : 8/26/2005 10:53:40 AM

The short cycle upphase is on the verge of stalling as a wavelet downphase begins to bottom. 30 min channel support remains at QQQQ 38.20 if the current 38.34 wavelet low doesn't hold.

Jeff Bailey : 8/26/2005 10:51:43 AM

Goldman Sachs (GS) $109.33 -1.04% ... re-testing WEEKLY S1 (109.38) here, sets up for test of yesterday's lows.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/26/2005 10:40:04 AM

The 30 min channel is flattening now at 38.20, which would also be the target of a bear flag breakdown from here. So far, the short cycle upphase has been tentatively corrective, and it's not clear that the markets have bottomed yet for the day. That's my guess, but bears need a break below S2 to bring that 38.20 target into view. Link

Marc Eckelberry : 8/26/2005 10:36:42 AM

Exit Sep 39 puts here at .80, +.15. Not worth the heartache.

Jeff Bailey : 8/26/2005 10:34:21 AM

10:00 Internals found at this Link ... prior post did not have correct volume, a/d and NH/NL displayed.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/26/2005 10:28:29 AM

So far, QQQQ's bounce is taking the shape of a bear flag, with volume still quite light for the day. Bulls need a break out of the rising flag resistance, currently up to 38.42 and above 38.40 confluence resistance. Link

Marc Eckelberry : 8/26/2005 10:24:52 AM

Some of you might consider an exit of Sep QQQQ 39 puts here. We hit a major suppport level at 38.27.

Jeff Bailey : 8/26/2005 10:24:42 AM

Current OPEN MM Profiles found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 8/26/2005 10:21:34 AM

QQQQ is holding below S2 and the short cycle is in an upphase off the 38.27 low. The failure at S2 has caused the short cycle indicators to begin trending. 30 min channel support is at 38.20, Above 38.40, the short cycle upphase would get room to breathe. Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/26/2005 10:16:15 AM

Yesterday's Internals found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 8/26/2005 10:14:48 AM

Ten year note yields are holding their slight losses, -.7 bps at 4.153%, while the 13-week bill rate is up an impressive 3.5 bps to 3.47%. If rising short rates and falling longer rates are viewed as a growing demand for money in the short term, then a flattening of the yield curve can be compared to a backwardation as seen in commodities, when front month demand causes prices to rise beyond the back months. That usually occurs during short squeezes, when demand is particularly high/urgent.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/26/2005 10:10:25 AM

The stopout rate on the Fed's weekend repo was 3.65%, well above the 3.5% target rate, indicating strong demand for that money. The fact that even the 700M net was drained is bearish when combined with the higher than usual demand, and so I'm thinking that upside resistance at 38.40, then 38.50-.52 QQQQ could be stronger than it might normally be. The bounce off the 38.27 low is still working on S2 from below: Link

Linda Piazza : 8/26/2005 10:08:17 AM

Just checking in for a moment before heading out for the rest of my vacation day. I'm noting that the 30-minute Keltner chart of the advdec line is reaching levels that are approaching extremes to the downside according to that chart. That doesn't mean that there will be an immediate bounce. A similar occurrence was happening early on the morning of August 16, when the advdec line then continued to test those extreme levels and drift sideways to sideways-down the rest of the day, with the OEX drifting down another couple of points during that day. It does mean, however, that there's danger of a bounce at any time, particularly important to note as the OEX is also currently testing the ascending trendline off the April low. This is a time for bears to be particularly cautious of protecting their profits. I don't know that it's yet a time to test a long play and I won't be around to monitor what happens, but if you're the type of trader who is going to attempt a long play, pay particular attention to what happens when the advdec line approaches -2700 to -3000, if it should, as that will mark another level of potential support. I would keep a tight stop if inclined to try a long play. I'm not recommending such a play, but know that some of you will want to try it as this trendline is tested. It might or might not be a good idea. As I said, I won't be around to monitor how the OEX and advdec line react. Bears, do guard your profits.

Jeff Bailey : 8/26/2005 10:04:31 AM

10:00 Market Watch at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 8/26/2005 10:03:55 AM

Volume is very light for QQQQ at 10.7M shares so far. Breadth -1.98:1 for the Nasdaq, -3.09:1 for the NYSE.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/26/2005 10:01:11 AM

Headlines:

GREENSPAN CALLS HOUSING BOOM AN ECONOMIC IMBALANCE

GREENSPAN WARNS HIGH HOME VALUES CAN DISAPPEAR QUICKLY

GREENSPAN: RETURN OF INVESTOR CAUTION COULD HURT HOME PRICES

GREENSPAN: ECONOMIC FLEXIBILITY HELPS U.S. WEATHER SHOCKS

GREENSPAN: PROTECTIONISM, DEFICIT THREATEN U.S. FLEXIBILITY

Jonathan Levinson : 8/26/2005 10:00:43 AM

Session low for Oct. gold at 438.30, -1.70, with HUI holding a 68 cent gain at 201.97. Ten year note yeilds are down .7 bps at 4.153%, still within the 4.14%-4.16% confluence.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/26/2005 9:56:20 AM

The Fed announced an 8.25B weekend repo to replace the net 8.95B expiring, for a 700M net drain.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/26/2005 9:55:18 AM

Closeup of QQQQ at this Link with 30 min channel support falling to 38.37, just above the S2 line. The short cycles are gathering in oversold but could start trending as the longer cycles work their way lower.

Jeff Bailey : 8/26/2005 9:53:17 AM

The cake is being put in the oven. 30-year yield ($TYX.X) dropping like a rock, now down 1.9 bp. Equity move starting to look like an anticipatory yield curve inversion. Some equity traders mixed on the implications (bullish for equities/bearish for equities).

Pacholder High Yield (PHF) $9.86 +0.40%

Jonathan Levinson : 8/26/2005 9:51:22 AM

QQQQ volume breadth is -1.53:1, -2.17:1 on the NYSE.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/26/2005 9:51:03 AM

Session high for ZN bonds at 111 15/16, TNX -.8 bps at 4.152%.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/26/2005 9:49:13 AM

QQQQ update at this Link , testing confluence and 30/60 min channel support at 38.40, the current low.

Jeff Bailey : 8/26/2005 9:48:00 AM

HL Camp & Company has not yet updated their buy/sell program premium levels for today. However, just got an al_rt at -0.04, which was yesterday's sell program premium level.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/26/2005 9:47:51 AM

UMich sentiment 89.1 vs. 92.5 exp.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/26/2005 9:47:32 AM

Amazing how this is tolerated month after month.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/26/2005 9:47:05 AM

Looks like UMich Sentiment is out, to everyone but the wire services.

Jeff Bailey : 8/26/2005 9:45:38 AM

Treasuries mixed in early trade with the shorter-dated 5-year finding selling and yield ($FVX.X) up 1.0 bp at 4.048%. The benchmark 10-year yield ($TNX.X) is down 0.3 bp at 4.157%, while the 30-year finds the bulk of early morning buying with yield ($TYX.X) falling 1.1 bp at 4.354%.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/26/2005 9:40:28 AM

Nasdaq volume breadth finally ticks negative here, -1.02:1.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/26/2005 9:33:46 AM

Volume breadth -1.14:1 for the NYSE, +1.38:1 for the Nasdaq.

Jeff Bailey : 8/26/2005 9:30:16 AM

Goldman Sachs (GS) $110.50 Link ... According to Bloomberg, Bank of China has approached the investment banker to prepare an initial public offering, which could generate $150 million in underwriting fees.

Jeff Bailey : 8/26/2005 9:26:31 AM

Pepsico (PEP) $54.51 Link .... Russia has opened an investigation into allegations that the company forbid retailers from selling products made by its competition.

Russian antitrust authorities opened a similar case againts Coca Cola (KO) $43.81 Link in July, but said the following month that the beverage giant had agreed to bring all of its contracts into compliance with Russian law.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/26/2005 9:22:36 AM

The Fed's big 10.25B overnight repo from yesterday expires today, partly offset by the 1.3B coupon pass deliverable today. There is therefore 8.95B net expiring today. We await the 10AM announcement to see whether the Fed will be adding or draining.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/26/2005 8:59:00 AM

Yesterday's sideways chop left off with the 30 min cycle beginning a new a downphase and the 60 min cycle beginning a new upphase. Currently, price is sinking in the premarket, QQQQ down to 39.53, but it's nothing that a single 100-tick candle couldn't reverse. The longer intraday cycles suggest chop, the daily is trending in oversold, and the weekly has just rolled over. A break of either 38.40 or 38.72 should be enough to confirm a directional move, and a surge of volume would add credence to the break. The inside of that range remains blender for the time being.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/26/2005 8:21:08 AM

NEW YORK, Aug 25 (Reuters) - Fannie Mae (FNM.N: Quote, Profile, Research) , the largest U.S. home funding company, said on Thursday its mortgage portfolio slumped an annualized 25.3 percent in July, its ninth consecutive monthly decline.

Fannie Mae's retained portfolio totaled $788.8 billion at the end of July, down from $808.2 billion at the end of June.

The portfolio has shrunk at an annualized 20.9 percent so far this year as Congress thrashes out legislation that will curb or slash the company's mortgage holdings following an accounting scandal.

Portfolio purchases of $9.4 billion last month and sales of $9.3 billion, combined with a $1.1 billion increase in portfolio liquidations to $19.6 billion, caused the shrinkage, the company said in its July summary report.

Link

FNM quoted -.20 at 50.50.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/26/2005 8:08:22 AM

Equities are mixed to lower, ES trading 1213.25, NQ 1567.5, YM 10455 and QQQQ -.02 to 38.57. Gold is up 30 cents to 440.30, silver +.024 to 6.857, ten year notes -3/32 to 111 49/64 and crude oil is down 12.5 cents to 67.375. We await UMich Sentiment at 9:45 (or whenever they actually release it), est. 92.5.

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