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Jeff Bailey : 8/29/2005 10:02:24 PM

Program Trading Levels for Tuesday ... HL Camp & Company has their computers set for program buying at $+2.14 and set for program selling at $-0.20.

Jeff Bailey : 8/29/2005 10:00:55 PM

I'll be away from the MM tomorrow morning as Drake the dog has to get some follow-up Xrays for his hip and front leg tomorrow morning at 09:10 AM EDT, but I think we'll be done with that before 12:00 PM EDT.

OI Technical Staff : 8/29/2005 9:59:59 PM

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Jeff Bailey : 8/29/2005 9:34:58 PM

SPX/QQQQ day trader's montage for tomorrow at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/29/2005 5:42:02 PM

Pivot Matrix for Tuesday at this Link

Tab Gilles : 8/29/2005 5:15:00 PM

Nasdaq Summation Index ($NASI) Still indicating downtrend, remaining short via Profund USPIX as per (8/8/05 10:17 AM post) Link Link Link Link Link Link Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/29/2005 5:08:23 PM

Have a phone call in to a friend and Regional Sales Manager for utility/energy cable provider General Cable (BGC) $15.00 +2.52%, but no return phone call at this point. That may be a "good sign" for BGC bulls.

Jeff Bailey : 8/29/2005 4:57:42 PM

Entergy (update) DJ - Company's president saying 939,000 without power in LA, MS. "Most destruction we have ever seen."

Jeff Bailey : 8/29/2005 4:55:59 PM

Closing U.S. Market Watch at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/29/2005 4:51:01 PM

Closing Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/29/2005 7:58:46 PM

U.S. Retail Gasoline Prices fall ... DJ - EIA saying the average price of retail gasoline prices fell by 2 cents to $2.61 per gallon.

Jeff Bailey : 8/29/2005 4:14:46 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles found at this Link ... Today's Activity ... Bearish swing trade stopped on the remaining 1/2 position short in shares of Amazon.com (AMZN) at $42.86 ($-0.41, or -0.97%).

Swing traded long shares of General Cable (BGC) at the offer of $14.99, stop $14.30, target $16.50.

Jeff Bailey : 8/29/2005 4:00:23 PM

Energy production shut-in Volumes ... DJ - According to federal Minerals Management Service, at 11:30 AM CDT, the shut-in oil production reported by the cut-off time is 1,375,413 barrels of oil per day. This translates into 91.69% of the daily oil production in the Gulf of Mexico, which is currently approximately 1.5 million barrels of oil a day.

The cumulative shut-in oil production for the period Aug. 26 through Aug. 29 is 3,133,859 barrels. It represents 0.572% of the yearly oil output in the Gulf of Mexico.

The shut-in gas production reported by MMS' deadline is 8.299 billion cubic feet per day. This shut-in gas production is equivalent to 82.99% of the daily gas production in the Gulf of Mexico, which is currently approximately 10 billion cubic feet of gas per day.

The cumulative shut-in gas production for the period Aug. 26 through Aug. 29 is 15.447 billion cubic feet and represents 0.423% of the yearly production of gas in the Gulf of Mexico.

Linda Piazza : 8/29/2005 3:59:45 PM

Big advdec value/RSI bearish divergence on the five-minute chart, tentative on the 15-minute. The OEX still challenges the 200-ema from below, and may not be able to close above this level. Take a look at the daily chart and slide over to late May and early June, and what do you see? The OEX consolidating from roughly about 558 to 563.40-565, today's range, with many daily candles during that period spanning that whole distance, one up and one day and vice versa, some interspersed with doji. So, the possibility of a rollover still exists, but sure isn't a done deal. Make your own decision. I'm holding my one lonely OEX put contract overnight.

Jeff Bailey : 8/29/2005 3:49:44 PM

Dave & Busters (DAB) $14.78 -2.44% ... "tilts" to new session low.

Linda Piazza : 8/29/2005 3:48:24 PM

I'm probably going to hold my bearish OEX position overnight, but that's not a choice I would suggest that others make unless they've got throw-away money on the trade. I'm doing it based on my study of the advdec line on the 30-minute chart, with the full knowledge that the advdec line could continue up toward +2000, perhaps on a pop-and-drop reaction tomorrow morning and that the OEX could still rise up to test 564-565. That's a very real possibility. Yet, I've got a string of profitable plays under my belt, so can risk a little on this one, especially since I'm risking a loss on only one lowly contract as I test out this method of trading. If those risks don't describe you and your trading style, I absolutely wouldn't risk holding a bearish position (or a bullish one, for that matter) overnight but would take my lumps this afternoon and see what sets up tomorrow morning.

Linda Piazza : 8/29/2005 3:43:12 PM

OEX also showing tentative price/RSI divergence on its 15-minute chart.

Linda Piazza : 8/29/2005 3:41:47 PM

The possibility exists now that the advdec line could continue climbing up toward 1930, with the advdec line now at 1182. However, tentative 15-minute bearish advdec value/RSI divergence still persists. The advdec line hasn't so much breached the 30-minute resistance as it has nudged that resistance higher. The resistance is currently at 1110 on 30-minute closes. The OEX is still testing that 200-ema, with the OEX a few cents below it as I type.

Jeff Bailey : 8/29/2005 3:37:09 PM

Alabama Power ... DJ - Utility saying 186,000 customers without power near Mobile Bay, SW Alabama. More outages likely as storm heads north.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/29/2005 3:28:41 PM

Katrina's been downgraded to Cat-1.

Jeff Bailey : 8/29/2005 3:27:13 PM

Swing trade long alert ... for 1/2 bullish position in shares of General Cable (BGC) $14.99 +2.46% here, stop $14.30, target $16.50.

Linda Piazza : 8/29/2005 3:24:33 PM

After taking profit on an OEX bullish play, I'm now in a bearish OEX play and am sticking to it for now as the advdec line tests Keltner resistance that often holds, other than breaches for an hour or two now and then. An hour or two of climb in the advdec line would be painful, so I won't stay in too long, but I've got a single contract and have a number of profitable plays from last week under my belt, so I feel comfortable giving this a try. I like to wait for 30-minute closes before I consider a 30-minute resistance line breached, and I'm watching the advdec line on a 30-minute chart. Others who have more at stake should exit if they tried a bearish OEX play as the 200-ema was tested earlier and if their account-appropriate stops are hit. OEX 564-565 remains possible before there's another rollover attempt, and there's no guarantee that a rollover will occur there. It's possible that the advdec line will just move sideways to dissipate "overbought" levels for the current move.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/29/2005 3:18:29 PM

QQQQ's 30 min cycle channel has flattened, while the 60 is still rising. This could well be the start of a sideways drift as the intraday cycles pull into a synchronous top, that "weightless" period as the 60 min channel turns. The problem is that the short cycle downphases have been doing nothing all day, and the upside feels much stronger than the down. If price slides sideways for the next 2-3 hours, then it should set up for a short, all things being equal. Bears will want to see 38.65 broken for confirmation. Until that occurs, the benefit of the doubt goes to the bulls.

Linda Piazza : 8/29/2005 3:17:47 PM

Advdec line jumped closer to the 30-minute Keltner resistance as I typed, at 1083 currently, with the advdec line at 1062.

Linda Piazza : 8/29/2005 3:17:05 PM

Advdec line also faces a descending trendline off the high of 8/22, with that trendline at about the day's high in the advdec line. Thirty-minute Keltner resistance at 1082 now, with the advdec line currently at 964.

Linda Piazza : 8/29/2005 3:15:25 PM

OEX Keltner resistance at 562.77 on 15-minute closes, with the OEX currently at 562.89 and with a minute or so left in this 15-minute period. That's not a huge breakout though.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/29/2005 3:13:39 PM



Linda Piazza : 8/29/2005 3:12:39 PM

So far, the five-minute bearish divergence on the advdec values continues. Tentative 15-minute bearish divergence, but that's tentative only right now. Thirty-minute resistance is at 1075 currently, with that rarely breached for long. The OEX is already at the 200-ema, though, and new bears need to know where there stops are and adhere to them, in case a test of 564-565 is in the works. This looks like the push I wanted to see that set up bearish advdec value/RSI divergence, but that divergence is too tentative yet to hang onto a losing play just on the basis of something that might set up. So, if your stop, an account-appropriate level above the 200-ema--is hit, you ought to get out of the bearish play. I'm watching the advec line now for signs that it will roll over. This is yet another time when that second test was necessary. I'd mentioned earlier that there usually was such a test on the advdec line.

Jeff Bailey : 8/29/2005 3:12:13 PM

03:00 Internals found at this Link

Tab Gilles : 8/29/2005 3:11:56 PM

Semiconductor Holder (SMH) Link $SOX Link

Jonathan Levinson : 8/29/2005 3:10:11 PM





Linda Piazza : 8/29/2005 3:05:17 PM

Thirty-minute advdec resistance at about 1050. Advdec value now at 822.

Jeff Bailey : 8/29/2005 3:04:28 PM

Buy Program Premium .... DIA $104.56, SPX 1,212.04, QQQQ $38.76

Jeff Bailey : 8/29/2005 3:03:07 PM

03:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/29/2005 3:01:07 PM

Hmmmm.... Manpower (MAN) $44.04 -1.78% Link ... Not certain they would provide temp services for cleanup.

Others ... LRW $21.93 -1.34%, ADO $11.83 -0.92%, SFN $7.34 -0.27%, KFRC $9.81 +0.40%, HHGP $24.00 +1.95%

Linda Piazza : 8/29/2005 2:50:15 PM

OEX still testing the 15-minute 100/130-ema's, at 561.74 and 562.46, respectively. OEX at 562.02.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/29/2005 2:49:54 PM

The short cycle downphase off the 38.84 QQQQ high has generated a net 8 cents' downside in just under an hour, and bodes very well for bulls if they can't break it down below 38.68: Link

Linda Piazza : 8/29/2005 2:49:01 PM

As I thought likely to happen, the advdec line is coming up for a retest of the day's high. There usually is a retest with bearish advdec value/RSI before there's an advdec rollover. (See previous posts.) OEX bears want to see bearish advdec value/RSI on this retest, preferably on the 15-minute chart, but certainly continued on the five-minute. Thirty-minute Keltner resistance, probably the most important to watch, is now at about 1043. Advdec line at 806 as I type.

Jeff Bailey : 8/29/2005 2:48:27 PM

Microsoft (MSFT) $27.16 +0.70% ... noted a large block trade in this morning's pre-market.

A new study from Kagan Research projects that 69 million digital subscribers will be equipped with interactive platforms by 2009, accounting for more than half (59%) the TV households in the U.S.

STATE OF INTERACTIVE TV 2005 provides a comprehensive view of the ITV sector and offers exclusive five-year revenue projections for three categories Kagan forecasts will contribute most significantly to the sector's outlook: TV-based gaming, television commerce and interactive or direct response advertising. While the revenue outlook for these types of interactivity is limited when compared to VOD and DVR technologies, the three categories outlined in the report will help drive subscribers to the platform and are expected to generate significant incremental revenue.

-- Kagan estimates total revenue for electronic transactions conducted via games, television or t-commerce and interactive advertising will reach $2.4 bil. by the year 2009.

-- The interactive services segment will also contribute to the bottom line for cable, DBS and telcos. Kagan estimates interactive services will generate $780 mil. in operator revenue by 2009.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/29/2005 2:46:03 PM

Volume breadth +2.04:1 for the NYSE and +3.03:1 for the Nasdaq.

Jeff Bailey : 8/29/2005 2:43:28 PM

Altria Group (MO) $69.45 -0.04% Link ... slips red after China's top legislature ratifies global tobacco treaty.

PRNewswire - China's top legislature has ratified the global tobacco treaty -- formally known as the World Health Organization Framework Convention on Tobacco Control (WHO FCTC). Once China's ratification is complete, 65% of the world's population will live in states that have ratified the global tobacco treaty. Health and corporate accountability advocates say China's ratification of the global tobacco treaty will be a major step forward for the first global health treaty. China is expected to finalize ratification by November, the deadline to participate in the treaty's first enforcement meeting early next year.

Jeff Bailey : 8/29/2005 2:38:55 PM

Entergy (update) Fox News - Utility saying it may be up to a month before all power is restored to as many as 750,000 Entergy Corp. (ETR) $77.27 -0.02% customers in Louisiana affected by outages causes by Hurricane Katrina. The company said it serves about 1 million customers in the region.

Linda Piazza : 8/29/2005 2:38:00 PM

As I type, OEX 15-minute Keltner resistance looks firm, with that resistance up to 562.52 on 15-minute closes. That means that a jump above that resistance might be meaningful, too, but the advdec line is facing resistance that usually holds on the 30-minute Keltner chart, other than brief breaches, so there would have to be something big happening to pop the OEX past that resistance and keep it there. The Keltner picture can change, since the lines are dynamic, but that's what currently shows up. If the OEX should get past that resistance, do not hold onto a losing play too long. If in a bearish position, keep your stop set an account-appropriate distance above the 200-ema, currently at 562.83, and don't hold on too long, as a test of the 100-sma at 564.53 isn't ruled out yet.

Tab Gilles : 8/29/2005 2:36:41 PM

Nasdaq100 ($NDX) Finding support at 1550 level. Taking some profits here if you're short would be prudent. Looking to see what the $NASI chart indicates after the close today. Link

August 7th chart... Link

Jonathan Levinson : 8/29/2005 2:36:15 PM

I'd laugh, but don't want to jinx what seems to be good luck shaping up for those along the coast ;)

Jonathan Levinson : 8/29/2005 2:35:31 PM

Thanks, Jeff :)

Jonathan Levinson : 8/29/2005 2:35:06 PM

Crude oil finished +1 or 1.51% at 67.125, natgas +14.02% or 1.375 at 11.18.

Jeff Bailey : 8/29/2005 2:35:17 PM

Jonathan ... I've seen reports of multiple waves reaching 25' high!

Jeff Bailey : 8/29/2005 2:33:24 PM

Shell Oil DJ - Two of its contract rigs drifted off location in U.S. Gulf.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/29/2005 2:24:38 PM

Keene, is that 5-waves off the opening low today? I'm not sure if I'm counting correctly.

Jeff Bailey : 8/29/2005 2:23:26 PM

Wal Mart (WMT) $45.83 +0.28% Link ... Donates $1 million to the Salvation Army for Katrina Disaster Relief Fund.

Linda Piazza : 8/29/2005 2:23:10 PM

Those who took a chance on a bearish entry on the OEX, based on the test of the 200-ema from the underside and on the advdec line's test of 30-minute Keltner resistance will want to see the advdec line quickly drop. Remember that there's often a retest of advdec Keltner resistance, with bearish value/RSI divergence on the second test, but that doesn't always occur. So far, there's been no such bearish divergence on anything higher than the five-minute chart. So, if the advdec line should drop toward, say +100 to +150 and then bounce, you'd want to see bearish value/RSI divergence, hopefully at least on the 15-minute chart. New bears also want to see the OEX's 15-minute 100/130-ema's at 561.72 and 562.47 continue to hold as resistance on 15-minute closes, if possible, but they don't want the OEX to get much above the 200-ema at 562.83. Bears would want to have profit-protecting plans for a test of 558.24, if the OEX should drop that far, and they'd rather that the advdec line not reach -1840 or so before the OEX reaches 558.24. A test of OEX 564-565 isn't completely ruled out yet, so don't let a bounce get away from you, holding on too long.

Jeff Bailey : 8/29/2005 2:13:45 PM

Entergy Fox News - Utility estimates 750,000 customers affected by outages in La. May be more before all power is restored.

Jeff Bailey : 8/29/2005 2:11:18 PM

02:00 Internals found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 8/29/2005 2:10:03 PM

Resistance is holding on the advdec line. Here's a picture of what I'm watching (look at the advdec line with respect to the black channel line and the RSI): Link This occurs as the OEX tests the 200-ema from the underside, also testing the 15-minute 100/130-ema's. Those who want to try a bearish play on hopes of a rollover could base exits on that 200-ema, choosing an account appropriate distance above the 200-ema as a stop, but would want to watch the advdec line, too. Usually, there's another test of the advdec resistance with bearish divergence as it's tested to show me when the advdec line is likely to rollover, but that doesn't always occur. So, there's been no such sign yet, so any taking bearish entries right now would just be doing so based on the thought that the OEX and advdec both are facing strong resistance, without much evidence yet that the resistance will hold. Might be worth a a try and might not be, as that retest of the advdec line's resistance might still come and the OEX might be propelled up toward 564-565 if it does.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/29/2005 2:08:25 PM

QQQQ is overdue for a short cycle downphase, and is approaching its previous breakout point at 38.70. Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/29/2005 2:02:29 PM

02:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Tab Gilles : 8/29/2005 2:04:14 PM

Material Select Sector SPDR (XLB) On Friday (2:56PM) I stated that the $27 level presented itself as a possible entry point. Here's an updated chart. Link Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/29/2005 1:58:13 PM

U.S. Energy (USEG) $3.69 -4.15% Link ....

Jeff Bailey : 8/29/2005 1:57:19 PM

Progress Energy (PGN) $43.17 +0.25% Link ... Company seeks license to build/operate new nuclear plant. Plans on selecting site for plant by year-end.

Jeff Bailey : 8/29/2005 1:54:59 PM

Motiva Convent Refinery ... Conoco Phillips (COP) $62.78 +1.45% Link saying little damage to its Motiva Convent refinery (235,000 barrels/day).

Linda Piazza : 8/29/2005 1:52:37 PM

Okay, now it's time to begin looking for signs of a possible rollover in progress. Don't see them yet, though, OEX traders. There's still a possibility that the advdec line could move higher, carrying the OEX with it, although it's currently testing Keltner resistance. I'd be really, really careful through here if long, though.

Jeff Bailey : 8/29/2005 1:49:17 PM

10-year yield ($TNX.X) alert now down 1.3 bp at 4.176%. Edges back above MONTHLY Pivot.

iShares Lehman 20-year (TLT) $94.52 +0.05% ... reverses earlier gains.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/29/2005 1:46:15 PM

Session low for natural gas at 1081, +10.15%, and crude oil at 66.525.

Linda Piazza : 8/29/2005 1:45:31 PM

Advdec line making a closer approach now to Keltner resistance currently in the 956 zone. Don't assume a rollover as that is hit, but the OEX also approaches next resistance at 562-563, with the OEX currently at 561.92, so this is the place to start watching for signs of an impending rollover. If the advdec line can sustain levels above +1000, OEX 564 isn't ruled out, though. Bulls, I'd begin taking partial profits in my position and ratcheting up the stops on the rest, beginning about now.

Jeff Bailey : 8/29/2005 1:43:41 PM

Buy Program Premium ... DIA $104.56, SPX 1,211.00, QQQQ $38.75.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/29/2005 1:39:19 PM

Volume breadth +1.68:1 on the NYSE, +2.6:1 on the Nasdaq.

Linda Piazza : 8/29/2005 1:37:12 PM

Advdec line not pulling back much yet, although I would have thought there might be a test of -16 to -472. Keep a watch, though, if the +900 zone is being approached, particularly if OEX 562-563 is also approached at the same time, watching for a potential rollover. If you were in a bullish OEX play, be sure you have a profit-protecting plan in mind. There's still a possibility that the 562-563 zone could be approached, but know what you'll do if the 561.23-ish zone is it instead.

Jeff Bailey : 8/29/2005 1:36:58 PM

NDX/QQQ and SOX.X only equity indices at this point in my pivot matrix to trade WEEKLY Pivots.

Tab Gilles : 8/29/2005 1:33:03 PM

Murphy Oil (MUR) Followup to Friday's 3:53PM post. Although it is still not known to what extent the final assessment to what damage has been done to the MUR refinery in Meraux, La. The MUR chart is now starting to enter the "Buy Zone". I'm now targeting the $50 level as an entry point. Link Link Link Link

Jonathan Levinson : 8/29/2005 1:30:53 PM



Jonathan Levinson : 8/29/2005 1:30:42 PM

The short cycle indicators are looking toppy again for QQQQ andthe price is chopping sideways from its earlier keltner touch. But the 30 min channel still points north, upper resistance to 38.75 currently. A drop back below 38.55, the 72 SMA, should be enough to reverse it from here. Link

Linda Piazza : 8/29/2005 1:26:43 PM

A new possibility on the OEX--that now a larger inverse H&S could form, with the head at this morning's low, the shoulder level at about 558.50 and the neckline at about 561.23 or so. If the OEX should pull back now, watch for a retest of the five-minute 100/130-ema's and perhaps an hours-long testing of the right-shoulder level before we know whether the formation will be confirmed or invalidated. Not sure there will be a pullback.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/29/2005 1:22:59 PM

Crude oil to a session low at 67.20, +1.075, nat gas +12.8% at 11.06.

Linda Piazza : 8/29/2005 1:22:11 PM

OEX now testing that 561.23 level that's the 38.2% retracement of the bear-market decline. It's approaching the top of that same old channel that's captured most movements for so long, with the top of that channel at 562.24, just below the 200-ema at 562.82. Those who might be in bullish positions need to have their profit-protecting plans in place for that test, and should consider taking at least partial profits and ratcheting up stops on the rest of the position. That's also a place for bears to begin to watch for a rollover, especially if the advdec line has approached 925 (new upside target on 30-minute). Don't assume a rollover will occur, as the 60-minute Keltner chart suggests that the advdec line could get as high as 2087. That's not a probability, but is a possibility, with OEX 564 not out of the real of possibility if the advdec line should move that high. So, watch the 562-563 area for a potential rollover, but wait until you see signs before you assume it's happening.

Linda Piazza : 8/29/2005 1:14:25 PM

OEX potential support at the five-minute 100/130-ema's now that they've been breached, with those averages at 559.72 and 559.97, respectively. OEX at 560.79 as I type, not pulling back appreciably.

Jeff Bailey : 8/29/2005 1:14:02 PM

01:00 Internals found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 8/29/2005 1:12:31 PM

Unless there's a quick pullback in the advdec line, there's a possibility of a continued push higher, perhaps higher than I thought earlier, to about 865. That could continue to bring the OEX higher with it, so without that quick pullback in the advdec line, back deep into negative values, it might not yet be time for an equity rollover.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/29/2005 1:08:17 PM

Foreign central banks stepped up for 8.4B of the 28B in 13 and 26-week bills just auctioned.

Jeff Bailey : 8/29/2005 1:07:08 PM

01:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 8/29/2005 1:05:32 PM

Bears should be pushing back again here on the keltner breach, but the bears couldn't do anything with the last downphase. Link

Linda Piazza : 8/29/2005 1:04:54 PM

Remember that the 38.2% retracement of the OEX's bear market decline is at 561.23, with the OEX rapidly approaching a test of that level. On Friday, the OEX had a five-minute swing high that reached 561.21, so this is a potential resistance zone.

Linda Piazza : 8/29/2005 1:03:51 PM

Here comes a push higher in the advdec line and in the OEX. A test of the advdec line's Keltner resistance at -327 is underway. Although the numbers have changed slightly through the day, I've been noting that a sustained move above this level could send the advdec line up toward about +770, and that could perhaps send the OEX up toward a test of the 200-ema from the underside. This push has not yet been sustained, but that's the possibility I've been noting all day. Watch for a potential rollover from that level, but only if the advdec line has reached levels that indicate "overbought" status, which would be at least 770-800, and if the advdec line were showing signs of rolling down, too.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/29/2005 1:03:05 PM

QQQQ - Exit Point Alert -

Stopped out of QQQQ short from 38.57 at 38.64, -.07. Couldn't get the entry typed fast enough

Jeff Bailey : 8/29/2005 1:01:49 PM

Buy Program Premium ... DIA $104.26, SPX 1,208.00, QQQQ $38.62

Jonathan Levinson : 8/29/2005 1:00:05 PM

Hearing that Henry Hub is being reopened, and the force majeure suspension being lifted. Will post a link when I find it. Oct. natgas +16.06% at 11.38.

Jeff Bailey : 8/29/2005 1:00:31 PM

Henry Hub reopens ... DJ - Sabine Pipe Line Company saying no significant storm damage.

Linda Piazza : 8/29/2005 12:56:33 PM

Testing, testing, testing. The OEX tests resistance and the advdec line does, too, all on Keltner charts. No outcome predicted yet.

Jeff Bailey : 8/29/2005 12:44:53 PM

Pennsylvania Emergency Management Agency (PEMA) ... DJ - Warns of potential flooding from Hurricane Katrina; Residents urged to plan ahead to protect themselves.

"Hurricane Katrina has the potential to cause severe damage and flash flooding in parts of the commonwealth later this week," said Special Assistant to the Director Richard D. Flinn. "Pennsylvania is one of the most flood- prone states in the nation, and I encourage everyone to think about flood safety and take a few simple steps to protect their homes and families from floods."

National Weather Service forecasters are currently predicting Hurricane Katrina to track toward the western part of the commonwealth, and rain from this storm has the potential to trigger flash flooding that could threaten communities with little warning.

Linda Piazza : 8/29/2005 12:43:55 PM

If the bulls are going to confirm that OEX inverse H&S, they better do it soon, because that right shoulder is stretching too far in time. The neckline is roughly at the five-minute 100/130-ema's at 559.66 and 559.94, respectively, with the OEX now at 559.36, still in testing range. The OEX also tests 560.03-560.24 Keltner resistance on the 15-minute chart. Support may be softening, too, but as long as the OEX closes 15-minute periods near 559.45, it may be likely to go on challenging that resistance. No direction clear yet.

Jeff Bailey : 8/29/2005 12:36:11 PM

Amazon.com (AMZN) $42.44 +0.16% ... slips back to daily Pivot ($42.42).

Jonathan Levinson : 8/29/2005 12:29:48 PM

Information about the Strategic Petroleum Reserves: Link

Linda Piazza : 8/29/2005 12:29:03 PM

Unfortunately, there's still no outcome to the ongoing test of OEX resistance (and the neckline of an inverse H&S) and of advdec value Keltner reistance. The test goes on with the possibility of an OEX rollover near the day's high but with the very real possibility that the 200-ema, at least, might be tested from the underside, too.

Jane Fox : 8/29/2005 12:24:19 PM

Thank you Jonathan - it is good to be back.

Linda Piazza : 8/29/2005 12:23:49 PM

Thanks, Jonathan. What a day to come back!

Jeff Bailey : 8/29/2005 12:23:33 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles found at this Link ... Note: Bears should be stopped out of 1/2 position in Amazon.com (AMZN) $42.57 +0.47%, when it traded my stop of $42.86 on its way to a session high of $43.00.

Lowered bearish stop for Dave & Busters (DAB) to $15.07 from $16.07.

Adjusted bearish stop for the iShares Lehman 20-year (AMEX:TLT) $94.71 +0.25% ... to $94.95.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/29/2005 12:22:42 PM

I got caught up in all the excitement this AM, but wanted to note how good it is to have Linda and Jane back with us today.

Linda Piazza : 8/29/2005 12:19:01 PM

Inverse H&S on the OEX's five-minute chart with the neckline roughly at the five-minute 100/130-ema's (on five-minute closes), at 559.67 and 559.97, respectively. OEX testing those averages, at 559.69 as I type.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/29/2005 12:16:18 PM

Stepping away for a few minutes.

Jeff Bailey : 8/29/2005 12:12:39 PM

12:00 Internals found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 8/29/2005 12:10:20 PM

Still a mixed picture, with the possibility that the OEX could push up toward 562.28-562.43 not yet completely undone. The Keltner picture shows that resistance may be strengthening some in the 560-560.25 region, however, but as long as the OEX is closing 15-minute periods at or near the Keltner line currently at 559.33, the OEX may go on testing that resistance, perhaps eventually nudging it higher or softening it. As this happens, the advdec line also tests resistance, with a bounce up to -368 not impossible. If the advdec line gets much above that and sustains values above that, at least into a 15-minute close, then it might move higher and the OEX might end up testing that 200-ema from the bottom. Still just a lot of tests going on without a clear outcome, though.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/29/2005 12:06:32 PM

"A shutdown to Henry Hub is a crisis situation for the markets," said Agbeli Ameko, managing partner at First Enercast Financial. "Thus, as futures expire, there will be no facility for gas delivery. This is an unpreceedented situation that has never happened in the history of the NYMEX futures contracts."


Jeff Bailey : 8/29/2005 12:06:05 PM

12:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 8/29/2005 12:04:26 PM

Nymex Oct. nat-gas futures are +16.27% here at 11.41.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/29/2005 12:03:48 PM

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) - Deliveries of natural gas for August have been halted for an indeterminate amount of time under a force majeure declaration by the New York Mercantile Exchange Monday.

Jeff Bailey : 8/29/2005 12:01:51 PM

Insider selling among homebuilders ... Merrill Lynch quantitative analyst Richard Bernstein saying he has seen a record net insider selling at 8 of the 12 homebuilding companies he's tracked over the past 10 months.

"We think this insider selling somewhat mimics that of the technology sector during the year surrounding the peak of the bubble," he said. About 14 of the 20 tech companies reported record net insider sales within a year of the bubble's peak, and 16 of 20 within 18 months of the peak, he said

UBS analyst Margaret Whelan dismisses concerns about insider selling among homebuilders. "A lot of people forget that most of these companies are first and second generation" companies, where founders or their families hold a substantial percentage stake in the companies, she said.

As an example, she noted that Robert and Bruce Toll, who founded Toll Brothers Inc. (TOL) $46.22 -1.13% Link , hold more than 30% of their company. Even if they sell shares, they still own huge positions in their company, she said.

Linda Piazza : 8/29/2005 11:52:25 AM

Test of Keltner resistance on the advdec values is perhaps coming up, with the most important nearby resistance in the -367 to -487 range, it appears. If the advdec values can get above that and hold above that, a push up above +800 may be possible, bouncing equities a little higher, too. Important test. The OEX tests 560.10-560.40-ish resistance currently, too, with a 15-minute close above that suggesting a push up toward the 200-ema.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/29/2005 11:49:15 AM

Oil and gas production impact estimates at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 8/29/2005 11:47:54 AM

Marc, I think that the bigger issue is whether there will be sufficient refining capacity to usefully exploit reserves tapped from the SPR, and if not, how quickly that capacity can be brought back online.

Jeff Bailey : 8/29/2005 11:43:32 AM

10 Most Active ... QQQQ $38.53 +0.18%, SPY $120.96 +0.16%, MSFT $26.99 +0.07%, INTC $25.68 +1.06%, SUNW $3.72 +1.36%, CSCO $17.49 +0.51%, LU $3.05 +0.32%, CPST $4.55 +9.59%, IWM $64.55 +0.10%, SMH $36.64 +0.96%

Jeff Bailey : 8/29/2005 11:40:54 AM

S&P Banks Index (BIX.X) 348.25 +0.31% ... session highs. Triggers al_rt set at 61.8% of WEEKLY Pivot retracement.

Jeff Bailey : 8/29/2005 11:35:30 AM

Levees breached ... Fox News - Storm surge reportedly causing flooding in New Orleans (3-8 feet of water into the 9th Ward area) with levees on the eastern side of city along Lake Ponchartrain having been breached.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/29/2005 11:32:34 AM

An impressive "flight to safety," with GOOG up 1.52% to 287.87 here, 15 cents off the session high.

Linda Piazza : 8/29/2005 11:31:36 AM

Still no definitive direction when looking at the OEX and advdec line in tandem on Keltner charts. The advdec line coils at the top of its climb, but under Keltner resistance. The 15-minute chart still shows that the advdec line move might be tired, but 30-minute and 60-minute charts show the possibility of more upside in the advdec line, so this sideways coiling could be dissipating some pressure, enough to allow for another push higher in the advdec line. That's far from definitive, though, and the OEX itself trades sideways between nearest Keltner support and nearest Keltner resistance. Fifteen-minute RSI is neutral, at 48.89. About all I can say is that the bounce might not be over. Might be, too, though. I'd certainly allow for the possibility that the advdec line could push all the way up to -390 or even 820, if that first resistance is breached to the upside.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/29/2005 11:28:55 AM

The bears need to dig in here, or risk taking out today's and Friday's highs. The short cycle downphase has begun to stall on the wavelet bounce, and it's now due to get back to the downside. QQQQ 38.43-.45 is the goal for a 1st-down. If not, we'll punt the short from 38.57.

Jeff Bailey : 8/29/2005 11:29:46 AM

Strategic Oil Reserve ... DJ - President Bush to hold press conference on possible SPR release at 01:00 PM EDT.

It is estimated that Hurrican Katrina has brought a shutdown of 1 million barrels of refining capacity along the Gulf Coast.

Linda Piazza : 8/29/2005 11:21:20 AM

My daughter's paramedic boyfriend is in a two-story hotel in Slidell after traveling to New Orleans to help with evacuations of nursing home patients. Power was lost in the wee hours of the morning and now cell-phone coverage is lost. At the last contact about 8:30 this morning, the first floor of the hotel had flooded and we're hearing now that people are on roofs of hotels in Slidell and New Orleans. Our thoughts are with everyone who was not able to evacuate.

Jeff Bailey : 8/29/2005 11:13:43 AM

11:00 Internals found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 8/29/2005 11:12:55 AM

I've been saying for a while that I thought the BIX was destined to touch the bottom trendline of its broadening formation on its daily chart, and it's done that today and Friday. This morning, it may even have dropped out of that broadening formation, but it's attempting to bounce right back inside it, perhaps just a few cents away at its current 347.46 level. Broadening formations are typically bearish when they come at the top of a climb, but this one formed, arguably in a congestion zone that formed at the top of a climb. A drop below April's 340.63 swing low would certainly confirm a breakdown out of that broadening formation, suggesting a test of the 320-324 next support. OEX traders, keep a watch on the BIX today as it tries to bounce back inside that formation. Such a bounce might be deemed a countertrend bounce, but if it gets too far, certainly above the 21-ema at 355.44, that might signal that something more bullish might be going on and a retest of the 200-ema or 200-sma might be in the works, from below.

Jeff Bailey : 8/29/2005 11:09:18 AM

S&P Banks Index (BIX.X) 347.51 +0.09% ... trying to stay above upward bar chart trend.

Jeff Bailey : 8/29/2005 11:08:19 AM

Bank of America (BAC) $43.06 +0.51% ... session highs. "Bad ticks" just found at $42.43.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/29/2005 11:06:49 AM

We caught the short cycle downphase, but it's getting poor traction here. So far, 38.43-.45 QQQQ has yet to be tested as support, but bears will need to first reach it before the downphase stalls for lack of traction. Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/29/2005 11:02:54 AM

11:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/29/2005 11:00:52 AM

Dow Transports (TRAN) 3,646 -0.57% ... have slipped below their rising 50-day SMA (3,661) and test rising 200-day SMA (3,638) intra-day.

Linda Piazza : 8/29/2005 10:58:53 AM

I'm frankly not sure if the climb is over yet. The advdec line is challenging mid-channel resistance, with the 15-minute chart showing that the bounce may be getting tired over the very short term but the 30- and 60-minute charts showing the potential for more upside, still. Taken together, these suggest the possibility of a pullback in the advdec line and then another bounce attempt, but outer-channel tests are much more reliable on the advdec line than are these mid-channel tests.

Jeff Bailey : 8/29/2005 10:54:13 AM

Dave & Busters (DAB) $14.86 -1.91% ... session lows.

Jeff Bailey : 8/29/2005 10:51:54 AM

National Hurricane Center Link ... Katrina now category 3, winds at 125 MPH.

Jeff Bailey : 8/29/2005 10:48:37 AM

Strategic Oil Reserve ... The U.S. Govt. said it would consider releasing some oil from its Strategic Oil Reserve should Gulf of Mexico supply disruptions become extended.

Linda Piazza : 8/29/2005 10:48:09 AM

OEX Keltner support at the current 559-ish level, with next support at 557.28-557.96. Next resistance at 560.23-560.43.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/29/2005 10:46:43 AM

QQQQ's short cycles have gathered in overbought and are curling over as a wavelet downphase reaches its bottom. If we don't bounce within the next minute or two, a break if 72 SMA suport at 39.43 would signal a resumption of the 30 min cycle downphase. Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/29/2005 10:42:02 AM

iShares Lehman 20-year (AMEX:TLT) $94.70 +0.24% ... slips back under that $94.71 level. Session high has been $94.88. Chart from Sunday's Market Monitor and comments at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 8/29/2005 10:40:02 AM

Volume breadth +1.02:1 for the NYSE, +1.93:1 for the Nasdaq.

Linda Piazza : 8/29/2005 10:39:49 AM

OEX is so far finding support on a Keltner line currently at 559.29, but faces 560.30-560.60 resistance, all on 15-minute closes. OEX at 559.82 currently.

Jeff Bailey : 8/29/2005 10:38:57 AM

Amazon.com (AMZN) $42.82 +1.06% ... session low of $41.91 came in opening minutes. Not even a chance to try and fill some of its 07/26-07/27 gap.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/29/2005 10:28:28 AM

Volume breadth has flipped positive since the Fed's second repo announcement, +1.09:1 on the NYSE and +1.90:1 on the Nasdaq. The Nasdaq TRIN is down to an impressive .29, in extreme territory, while the NYSE TRIN is at a neutral .77.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/29/2005 10:26:06 AM

Session low for ten year notes, with TNX up to a 2.4 bp loss at 4.165%.

Jeff Bailey : 8/29/2005 10:24:31 AM

Bearish swing trade lower stop alert ... for Dave & Busters (DAB) $14.91 -1.58% ... to $15.07

Linda Piazza : 8/29/2005 10:21:58 AM

The advdec line did find support where Keltner channels suggested it might, bouncing and bouncing equities along with it. Now the advdec line approaches a zone of possible resistance, from -878 to -457 on the 30-minute chart, at slightly different levels on the 15-minute chart. This is a point at which the advdec line could stall, so be watchful. This is a mid-channel level and the RSI has not yet reached levels indicating that the move is extreme, so I don't feel confident in saying outright that the bounce is over. Could be, but the advdec line could also push through this resistance, up toward +1010, and carry equities a bit higher, too. OEX currently testing 560.33-560.73 Keltner resistance on 15-minute closes, with the OEX at 559.81.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/29/2005 10:20:19 AM

There it is: another 6.25B added in overnight repos, bring the net to a +4.5B add for the day. That was the upside surge in equities there.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/29/2005 10:18:33 AM

QQQQ broke the 30 min keltner channel on that surge and put us within tight-stop distance of Friday's high. If it's going to run from here, then it will be because of a strong upside trending move. Crude oil and natgas are still up huge.

Linda Piazza : 8/29/2005 10:17:52 AM

I mentioned this morning that my daughter's boyfriend, a paramedic, was sent to New Orleans this weekend to help evacuate nursing-home residents. They were then told to evacuate yesterday morning, but made it only as far as Slidell before stalled cars made it impossible for their ambulance to go any further. They were also almost out of fuel. They're in a hotel in Slidell and the power went out some time ago, so my daughter is no longer receiving cell phone calls, as he's conserving power since he doesn't know when he can charge it again. According to him, many New Orleans residents were caught in the same situation--in their cars trying to evacuate, out of fuel as the freeway was clogged with more and more cars out of gas. Our thoughts and hopes go out to all who could not evacuate.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/29/2005 10:16:57 AM

QQQQ - Entry Point Alert -

Short QQQQ at 38.57, stop 38.64

Jeff Bailey : 8/29/2005 10:15:08 AM

Bearish swing trade stop alert ... for Amazon.com (AMZN) $42.86

Linda Piazza : 8/29/2005 10:14:14 AM

OEX bears, you've had plenty of time to reset stops and now it's time to adhere to those stops you reset. The bounce that had looked possible is beginning. It's a countertrend bounce, so it's not one in which bullish entries would have been a great idea for bulls, perhaps, but it is a sign that bears should adhere to their stops. Watch carefully as the advdec line reaches -700 to -400, though, if it should reach that high. There's a possibility that its climb could stall in that area, stalling the equity climb with it.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/29/2005 10:14:03 AM

QQQQ tests 30 min channel resistance here, now clear of the 72 SMA's pull. The short cycles are rising and volume is strong on the upside break. Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/29/2005 10:13:00 AM

Buy Program Premium ... DIA $104.07, SPX 1,205.52, QQQQ $38.50.

Jeff Bailey : 8/29/2005 10:12:28 AM

Intel (INTC) $25.71 +1.18% ... Despite news out of Japan that chip sales were down 23% year-over-year.

Jeff Bailey : 8/29/2005 10:08:34 AM

10:00 Internals found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 8/29/2005 10:07:57 AM

So far there's been no followup to the Fed's net 1.75B repo drain, lending some credence to Greenspan's tough words over the weekend at the Kansas City Fed symposium.

Linda Piazza : 8/29/2005 10:05:51 AM

OEX coming back to test Keltner support from 557.52-558.06. Those hoping for a bounce--either because they're in bullish positions or hoping for a new bearish one on a bounce and rollover--want to see that support hold on 15-minute closes. OEX currently at 558.45. Next Keltner resistance at 558.92, then 560.22 and then up near the 200-ema.

Linda Piazza : 8/29/2005 10:02:11 AM

OEX attempting that bounce now.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/29/2005 10:02:02 AM

Nat-gas is down to 11.15, a 13.72% gain and well off its overnight 12.00 high, crude oil back below 69 at 68.85, +2.725.

Jeff Bailey : 8/29/2005 10:02:02 AM

10:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 8/29/2005 10:00:02 AM

The Fed has announced a 6.5B 4-day repo, which is a net 1.75B drain against the 8.25B expiring. However, the door is still open for an overnight repo during the coming minutes.

Linda Piazza : 8/29/2005 9:58:49 AM

Potential for a bounce remains. OEX is far from proving that it can hold a bounce just yet, though or that it could break above the top of the most current and tightest descending regression channel if it did. Next resistance at 559.03 and then at 560.45 on 15-minute closes. Above that is more important resistance currently at 562.69-562.93 with the 200-ema at 562.80.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/29/2005 9:58:38 AM

Volume breadth recovers to -1.77:1 on the NYSE and +1.05:1 on the Nasdaq.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/29/2005 9:56:28 AM

The short cycle is in an upphase as new highs break out across the board, QQQQ gunning for a gap fill within the ongoing 30 min channel downphase. 39.44 is 72 SMA and S1 resistance: Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/29/2005 9:56:24 AM

Buy Program Premium ... DIA $103.78, SPX 1,203.29, QQQQ $38.43

Linda Piazza : 8/29/2005 9:52:20 AM

OEX still trying to steady at Keltner support. It ended the last 15-minute period right at that 15-minute Keltner support. I'm watching the advdec line as it approaches possible Keltner support, but support that's not so strong that I can count on it to hold just yet. Still a time for bears just to follow the OEX lower with their stops and make plans to protect profits. There's still a possibility of a bounce, but not a promise of one as yet.

Linda Piazza : 8/29/2005 9:47:51 AM

The RUT opened this morning beneath its 240-minute 100/130-ema's, averages that it spent a good part of last week testing and laboriously climbing above in a bear flag before finally breaking the flag's support Friday. Those averages are at 650.46 and 650.59, and should be watched if the RUT should attempt to bounce this morning. So far, no sign of a bounce, though.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/29/2005 9:45:46 AM

Ten year note yields -3.7 bps at 4.152%, within the 4.14%-4.16% confluence zone. 13-week bill yields are -.5 bps at 3.462%.

Jeff Bailey : 8/29/2005 9:45:13 AM

Equity/energy/metals overnight high/low prices at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 8/29/2005 9:43:04 AM

QQQQ update at this Link . 72 SMA resistance is at 38.45, above which the 30 min channel downphase will stall.

Linda Piazza : 8/29/2005 9:41:19 AM

I am having trouble with QCharts in particular this morning, and can't get all my charts. I do note, however, that the OEX currently tests the bottom of that tight descending regression channel that I mentioned in my 7:48 post this morning. The bottom of that channel was then at about 557.40 and the OEX is currently 557.31 if I can trust that value on QCharts. The OEX is also at bottom channel support on the 15-minute Keltner chart, too, testing that, with bottom support at 557.70 on 15-minute closes and with about 7 minutes left in the current 15-minute period. The advdec line approaches -2320 to -2600 next Keltner support, but it's unclear as yet whether that will be strong enough to hold the advdec line. There's a possibility that it could be, so bears need to have their profit-protecting plans in place as the OEX also tests support. Don't see any signs yet that a bounce is imminent, but there are signs that evidence could soon build. I would consider such a bounce a countertrend bounce, though, and would be looking for a rollover bearish entry rather than participating in a bullish play.

Jeff Bailey : 8/29/2005 9:39:22 AM

Current OPEN MM Profiles found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 8/29/2005 9:34:50 AM

Volume breadth is -2.47:1 for the NYSE, -2.57:1 for the Nasdaq.

Linda Piazza : 8/29/2005 9:34:44 AM

Advdec line didn't open where I expected it to open, but instead has plenty of room to decline, down to -2260 to -2590. It's testing potential Keltner support now, but since it's in the mid-channel level and not near one of the outer boundaries, any predictions on equity movements based on the advdec line's Keltner setup are not as reliable as they might otherwise be.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/29/2005 9:33:25 AM

Friday saw 30 and 60 min cycle upphases that have stalled and rolled over on the premarket action. If that's all she wrote for those upphases, then the down could be very strong. Declining trendline support on QQQQ's 5 day 100-tick chart is at 38.15. Longs can try to buy dips off support with very tight stops. Currently, I'm still trying to digest the movesin natural gas and crude oil, which are a huge potential problem for the bullish case.

Linda Piazza : 8/29/2005 9:28:45 AM

I'm having all kinds of computer problems today, and I've heard from some others who are, too. If I should disappear, I'll be rebooting and trying again, but for now, I'm holding on by the skin of my teeth.

Jeff Bailey : 8/29/2005 9:28:27 AM

Swing trade bearish stop adjustment alert ... the 30-year Treasury YIELD ($TYX.X) is down 4.0 bp at 4.34% and challenges Friday's low yield. The iShares Lehman 20-year (AMEX:TLT) is ticking near Friday's price high here at $94.87.

Let's raise our stop in the early going to $94.95 at this point. One could think this is DEFENSIVE buying, but one should also consider the possibility that depending on hurricane damage, the Fed may take a "wait and see approach" at its next meeting.

Jane Fox : 8/29/2005 9:22:27 AM

Dateline WSJ Roof of Superdome in New Orleans, where thousands evacuated ahead of Hurricane Katrina, is leaking rain.

Jeff Bailey : 8/29/2005 9:19:59 AM

Capstone Turbine (CPST) $4.19 Link ... churning higher at $4.74 at second-most active stock in pre-market trade. The company manufactures microturbine technology solutions for use in stationary distributed power generation applications.

Linda Piazza : 8/29/2005 9:18:00 AM

Although I still can't get through to the FTSE.com website, I did find mention in a Reuters article from last Friday that today is a bank holiday in the U.K.

Jeff Bailey : 8/29/2005 9:17:06 AM

Microsoft (MSFT) $26.97 Link ... just saw a 9 million share block crossed at $26.97. Stock atop this morning's most active list as it ticks at $26.80.

Scientific-Atlanta did say this morning that it is working with the software giant on Internet protocol, or IP set-top products. Scientific- Atlanta said the cooperative effort is part of an initiative to support "growing worldwide demand for IPTV technology," and it involves Scientific-Atlanta's set-tops being integrated with Microsoft's TV IPTV edition software platform.

However, I'm pretty sure the 9 million share block is probably "hurricane related."

Linda Piazza : 8/29/2005 9:07:23 AM

Earlier I mentioned a number for the FTSE 100, but a reader notes that must be an old number, as the FTSE 100 does not appear to be trading this morning. The FTSE.com site is not responding this morning, so I haven't been able to confirm that it's a holiday, but that's my assumption. My source for foreign indices revamped its site while I was on vacation, and it hasn't been as easy to find information this morning. Thanks, D.C., for pointing out that the FTSE 100 number appears old.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/29/2005 8:39:19 AM

Hearing that OPEC is announcing a 500,000 bpd increase in production. No details yet.

Jane Fox : 8/29/2005 8:35:54 AM

Thank you Jonathan (8:32 post).

Jane Fox : 8/29/2005 8:35:02 AM

Dateline WSJ Until recently, higher oil prices hadn't dented the economy in quite the way forecasters expected when oil was merely trading in the $40-a-barrel range. But there are signs now that rising energy prices are starting to take a toll on the consumer, as consumer sentiment fell dramatically in August, the University of Michigan said Friday. Retailers such as Wal-Mart Stores have blamed falling sales on rising gas prices.

"There have only been three other times in the past three decades when oil prices surged this much over a two-year time horizon," wrote Merrill Lynch economist David Rosenberg in a note this morning. West Texas Intermediate crude oil "is up 100%, or double, and while this is harsh, recessions in the past were touched off by a 150% increase over a two-year span (with remarkable consistency), which means that $75 will prove to be the tipping point."

Jonathan Levinson : 8/29/2005 8:32:11 AM

Jane, Greenspan's weekend comments about not monetizing assets were quite bearish for bonds. If not for the hurricane, bonds would probably be deep red this morning.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/29/2005 8:10:45 AM

Map of petroleum installations potentially in harm's way: Link

Linda Piazza : 8/29/2005 7:48:18 AM

Friday, the OEX pierced the ascending trendline off the April low. At one point, it had managed to bounce back above that trendline, but closed the day back below it. It had, however, managed to climb back inside that same old Keltner channel that's been containing it, closing the day sitting just above that Keltner channel's support at 558.61 on 15-minute closes. That support still turns lower, however, and hasn't yet begun to flatten. The OEX is in a confirmed downtrend, and since 8/24, that trend has settled into a tight descending regression channel with bottom support currently at about 557.40, the location of the 30-minute Keltner support, too.

However, the advdec line on the 15- and 30-minute Keltner channels show a possibility that the down move may soon be over, perhaps after some more follow-through to the downside this morning, and that a countertrend bounce may be in the works. If the advdec line should be above -2300 to -2500 at the open, there's even the possibility that a bounce in the advdec line has already begun, but the more likely possibility appears to be that the advdec line might open near or below the -3100 level that markets an extreme level for this move. Just as is true with equities, the advdec line can and does break out of Keltner channel boundaries, but it seldom does for long. After a burst to the downside this morning, it might then begin a sideways consolidation or even a bounce. As my TradersCorner article this weekend, "Think Again," proposed, these advdec line moves with respect to Keltner channels sometimes do see follow-through in equity moves.

Therefore, this is definitely a time for bears to be guarding profits, as I suggested that bears do Friday morning shortly after the open. Not much traction occurred to the downside after the first 30 minutes of trading on Friday, and the OEX did manage to close off its LOD. A bounce has not begun, but bears should be watchful for that to happen. I'll be watching how the advdec line behaves with respect to the Keltner channels. Please also pay attention to Jane's work on breadth indicators, as she has valuable inputs.

On any bounce, remember first that we have to assume now that it's a countertrend move. Watch for a potential rollover at the 200-ema at 562.84 or the 100-sma at 564.58. You'll want the 15-minute advdec line to have cycled up toward extreme levels on the upside, currently at about -650 on the 15-minute chart, and +767 on the 30-minute chart before that rollover begins, though, to have signaled that oversold pressures have been fully dissipated.

So, for today, I see a need for bears to guard their profits as a bounce or just a sideways move could be in the works after an initial punch lower. The degree of that bounce is unproven as yet. I've checked other instances when the advdec line's RSI was as low as it was Friday. Some of those resulted in big bounces and some in two or three point bounces that then rolled over into big declines. There was no consistent reaction.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/29/2005 7:47:50 AM

Greenspan's weekend comments at this Link :

Other forces will be at work on the economic environment as well. The inexorable aging of our population will markedly influence the policy milieu in the years ahead. Monetary policy, for example, cannot ignore the potential inflationary pressures inherent in our current fiscal outlook, especially those that could arise in meeting commitments to future retirees. However, I assume that these imbalances will be resolved before stark choices again confront us and that, if they are not, the Fed would resist any temptation to monetize future fiscal deficits. We had too much experience with the dangers of inflation in the 1970s to tolerate going through another bout of dispiriting stagflation. The consequences for both future workers and retirees could be daunting.

Nearer term, the housing boom will inevitably simmer down. As part of that process, house turnover will decline from currently historic levels, while home price increases will slow and prices could even decrease. As a consequence, home equity extraction will ease and with it some of the strength in personal consumption expenditures. The estimates of how much differ widely.

The surprisingly high correlation between increases in home equity extraction and the current account deficit suggests that an end to the housing boom could induce a significant rise in the personal saving rate, a decline in imports, and a corresponding improvement in the current account deficit. Whether those adjustments are wrenching will depend, as I suggested yesterday, on the degree of economic flexibility that we and our trading partners maintain, and I hope enhance, in the years ahead.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/29/2005 7:39:35 AM

Equities are down, ES trading 1199.25, NQ 1553.5, YM 10348 and QQQQ -.22 at 38.24. Gold is up 1.2 to 440.1, ten year notes are up 19/32 to 111 7/8, crude oil is up 3.3 to 69.425 and natural gas is up 1.785 or 18.2% to 11.59.

There are no major economic reports scheduled for release today.

Linda Piazza : 8/29/2005 6:18:51 AM

Good morning. First, I want to say that our thoughts today are with our readers who are impacted by Hurricane Katrina. My daughter's boyfriend is a paramedic sent from the Dallas area into New Orleans this weekend to help evacuate nursing-home residents, so my own thoughts are centered on Nick, hoping that he's okay. His team was told to evacuate yesterday, but could not do so, as there was no fuel and highways were blocked. We hear there are many in his situation, those who tried to leave but could not as cars idled the rest of their fuel away sitting on freeways.

The Nikkei fell last night, and other Asian and European bourses are awash in red. Our futures also are negative as of 6:10 EST. Gold was higher by $2.40, and crude, up by $3.04, to $69.17. More detail about Asian and European markets follows in succeeding paragraphs.

The Nikkei dropped in early trading Monday. While I was gone last week, the Nikkei reached yet another new recent high, but then spent the last three days of last week coiling within a 100-point range between 11,400 and 11,500. The early-morning drop pushed the Nikkei through the bottom of that rectangular trading range, with big-caps Mitsubishi Tokyo Financial Group and Honda Motor Co. leading early declines. By mid-morning, it had met its 11,300 downside target after breaking through that 100-point-wide rectangular trading pattern. It coiled around that 11,300 level the rest of the day. The Nikkei ended the day down 129.65 points or 1.04%, at 12,309.83.

Early Monday morning, a Japanese newspaper carried a story concerning pensions in Japan, saying that improved investment returns and declining obligations had resulted in a drop in unfunded pension liabilities. Record crude costs were reportedly at least partly responsible for the decline in the Nikkei, and another article noted that Japanese firms operating in China face rising cargo costs and dwindling gasoline supply, and that those factors impact their ability to establish secure distribution of their products. Late in the trading day, a Japana airplane was returned to its airport after a bomb threat was received. All passengers were deplaned, and the airplane was being checked at the last report. I haven't seen a further update. Perhaps after the close of the Nikkei, the head of research and statistics at the Bank of Japan commented on the country's recovery, saying among other things that domestic demand has been stronger than expected and the recovery resilient.

All other Asian markets fell, too. The Taiwan Weighted lost 1.42%, and South Korea's Kospi fell 2.15%. Singapore's Straits Times declined 0.64%, and Hong Kong's Hang Seng lost 0.97%. China's Shanghai Composite fell 1.49%. Over the last 48 hours, there has been speculation that there would be another yuan revaluation, and the central bank has now called at press briefing on the yuan, scheduled for Tuesday.

Most European markets trade in the red, too, pressured lower by crude costs that temporarily traded over $70.00 last night. Reinsurers fell, but France's oil major Total climbed as U.S. production was shut down in the Gulf. In other stock-specific news, Novartis gained after the company announced that the U.S.'s FDA had granted its drug for adjuvant treatment for post-menopausal women with early breast cancer a priority review. Femara is the drug. In Germany, September's GFK Consumer Confidence rose unexpectedly to 3.4 from a revised higher 3.2 for August. This was the first rise since April, a Marjketwatch.com article noted. The upcoming election is credited with some of the improvement, but if the expected victors do increase taxes, as is expected, sentiment might decline again.

As of 6:11 EST, the FTSE 100 was lower by 27.60 points or 0.53%, to 5,228.10. The CAC 40 was lower by 7.07 points or 0.16%, at 4,335.63. The DAX was lower by 16.42 points or 0.34%, to 4,767.38.

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