Option Investor
Archive
HAVING TROUBLE PRINTING?
Printer friendly version
Jeff Bailey : 8/30/2005 11:41:01 PM

Program Trading Levels for Wednesday ... HL Camp & Company has their computers set for program buying at $2.42 and set for program selling at $-0.04.

OI Technical Staff : 8/30/2005 9:59:59 PM

The Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

Disclaimer: Stocks discussed in the Market Monitor are for educational purposes only and any analysis is not meant to imply a recommendation for or against that stock. The analysts in this forum as on any other website are prohibited by the SEC from giving any specific advice to ANY individual trader. All information posted is for ALL readers and is not meant to be directed to any individual. Our analysts cannot answer any email questions regarding any specific stock. Please do not ask and please do not take offense if requests are denied.

Results posted in the Market Monitor are hypothetical and OIN does not claim that any reader achieved these exact results. Due to the lag time between research, writing, posting, uploading, reading and execution there will be differences between the actual signal given and the fill achieved by the reader. Fills may be better or worse but in most cases they will be different. The writers will make every effort to give advance notice of intended signals and indicate potential price targets. Your individual results may vary depending on your activity level and aggressiveness. This forum is intended as an education service only. Trading involves risk and should not be attempted by anyone not ready to accept this risk. By acting on any signal in this forum you agree and personally accept this risk.

Linda Piazza : 8/30/2005 8:26:49 PM

From the WWLTV.com website: All residents on the east bank of Orleans and Jefferson remaining in the metro [New Orleans] area are being told to evacuate as efforts to sandbag the levee break have ended. The pumps in that area are expected to fail soon and 9 feet of water is expected in the entire east bank within the next 12-15 hours. For those not familiar with New Orleans, it sits in a bowl, surrounded by water on three sides. Levees and pumps protect the city, with the city actually lower than the level of that water. The water does not and will not recede in New Orleans: it has to be pumped out.

Jeff Bailey : 8/30/2005 6:47:25 PM

Bear Confirmed ... Today's action among OEX components had Stockcharts.com's S&P 100 Bullish % ($BPOEX) seeing a net loss of 2 stocks to a reversing lower PnF sell signal and has this narrower measure of market breadth reversing to "bear confirmed" status. Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/30/2005 6:41:31 PM

Hanover Compressor (HC) $15.02 +2.52% Link ... notable new 52-weeker at the big board today.

Jeff Bailey : 8/30/2005 6:02:35 PM

Closing Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/30/2005 5:19:17 PM

Closing U.S. Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/30/2005 5:01:29 PM

Pivot Matrix for tomorrow at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/30/2005 4:22:08 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles found at this Link ... Today's Activity ... Bearish swing trade stopped on the iShares Lehman 20-year (AMEX:TLT) at $94.95 ($-0.41, or -0.43%).

Day traded short the QQQQ at $38.45, but could do no better than $38.40 and stopped out at $38.55 ($-0.10, or -0.26%).

Jonathan Levinson : 8/30/2005 4:01:09 PM

QQQQ is holding on the pivot here, down .18 at 38.58. On a daily basis, QQQQ is at a clear bounce point since yesterday, and the daily cycle oscillators are overdue for a bounce. If yesterday's hig gets broken on a closing basis, then the prognosis is bullish. If not, it's very bearish on a close below the 38.20 level: Link

Linda Piazza : 8/30/2005 4:00:52 PM

If you've got a daily OEX chart, scan across to the late June/early July period (I think I said May/June earlier today, mistakenly) and see the consolidation zone there. The OEX is rattling around in the same old consolidation zone parameters.

Linda Piazza : 8/30/2005 3:59:36 PM

Possibility of some more OEX follow-through to the upside tomorrow morning, but the advdec line is quickly climbing toward "overbought" status by the measures I use, so I'll be looking tomorrow sometime for the possibility of a rollover. Doesn't look this this is a time to front-run that just yet, but that's what I'll be watching tomorrow.

Jeff Bailey : 8/30/2005 3:46:58 PM

CBOE Internet Index (INX.X) 190.99 +0.02% ... bids green. WEEKLY Pivot 190.84.

Linda Piazza : 8/30/2005 3:45:58 PM

So, a real bounce does begin without signaling that it was going to do so. I'm not regretful at not taking part in this bounce, as I still didn't get the signals I wanted and I hadn't really planned to participate in this long play. The OEX remains below the 20-minute 100/130-ema's that stopped it on 8/24 and again yesterday, with those averages now at 561.28 and 562.12. If the advdec line is hitting strong resistance when those averages are being tested, if they are, I'll be watching then for a possible rollover. Since I didn't get the signs that I wanted that a bounce was really in the works, though, I'm not so sure how sustainable this bounce is. Certainly bears should not adhere to their positions if their stops are hit, however. OEX at 560.01 as I type.

Jeff Bailey : 8/30/2005 3:45:48 PM

QQQQ $38.50 -0.67% ... If we were to close here, tomorrow's DAILY Pivot Levels would be ... $38.18, $38.34, Piv = $38.48, $38.64, $38.78

Note: correlation of DAILY R1 and WEEKLY Pivot.

Jeff Bailey : 8/30/2005 3:40:52 PM

Semiconductor Index (SOX.X) 467.49 -0.58% ... just under its DAILY Pivot.

QQQQ $38.53

Jonathan Levinson : 8/30/2005 3:39:37 PM

Volume breadth improves to -1.65:1 on the NYSE and -1.81:1 on the Nasdaq.

Jeff Bailey : 8/30/2005 4:25:35 PM

Wonder what is going on in Honolulu, Hawaii? With unleaded gas futures (wholesale) having settled above $2.1578, or $2.76 including taxes, there may be a gasoline shortage.

Curtis! Are you there?

Jonathan Levinson : 8/30/2005 3:34:57 PM

QQQQ tests upper 30 min channel resistance at the 38.56 pivot: Link

Linda Piazza : 8/30/2005 3:34:54 PM

As the crazy last half hour of the day begins, OEX bears need to have that profit-protecting plan clasped in their paws. The advdec line might not be giving me the clues I want to see, but the OEX did at least show bullish price/RSI divergence on today's moves lower as compared to yesterday's. That's not enough evidence for me to plung into a long play or to suggest one for the readers, but bears should adhere to their stops, if hit.

Jeff Bailey : 8/30/2005 3:33:09 PM

Semiconductor Index (SOX.X) 466.58 -0.78% .. right at its WEEKLY Pivot. DAILY Pivot is higher.

Only way I can see going home long the QQQQ/NDX from a short-term perspective, would be if SOX.X could muster a close back above its DAILY Pivot.

Jeff Bailey : 8/30/2005 3:31:08 PM

Buy Program Premium ... DIA $103.71, SPX 1,204.42, QQQQ $38.44

Linda Piazza : 8/30/2005 3:29:11 PM

OEX testing five-minute 21-ema from the underside, with that average at 558.16 and with the OEX currently at 557.84, turning down as I type. Still not seeing the signs I need to show that the downturn is over. OEX next Keltner support at 556.63.

Jeff Bailey : 8/30/2005 3:25:59 PM

It would be my opinion that releasing oil from the SPR wouldn't do much good. The "problem" isn't crude oil supply as much as it is refinery output of the products derived.

Unleaded gas hasn't surged 22.3% in 5-days because of crude oil supplies.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/30/2005 3:22:03 PM

Headline:

ENERGY DEPT GETS REQUEST FOR OIL RESERVE LOAN - WHITE HOUSE

Jonathan Levinson : 8/30/2005 3:20:55 PM

QQQQ is back up to the 72 SMA at 38.45, still entirely directionless and net unchanged from its opening levels. The short cycle indicators are trying to bottom above oversold territory, with the 30 and 60 min channels now sliding sideways: Link

Linda Piazza : 8/30/2005 3:18:30 PM

Still not getting the confirmation I need to see to believe that the current OEX downside move is winding down and a countertrend bounce may be in the works. Still getting closer but it's just not there yet. May not get an ideal signal, but I'm not using it for a bullish entry anyway, but rather to give warning to bears. Bears should be forewarned anyway, though, and make sure you adhere to your plans for exiting your positions and know ahead of time whether you'll hold overnight and under what conditions you'll hold overnight.

Linda Piazza : 8/30/2005 3:15:33 PM

I know those of you in the areas hits by Hurricane Katrina aren't reading this, but for those friends and family of people impacted, our thoughts still go out to you. My family has spent many long nights and days trying to re-establish contact with our paramedic friend who went into the New Orleans area to help, after learning that the place where he had sheltered had lost its roof. We've had tentative confirmation that some of the 15 paramedics and EMT's in his group suffered injuries but that all are alive and they're now working with local firefighters, but the forums and message boards we're searching are inundated with people seeking any kind of news about their loved ones. Good luck to all. I hope that contact is soon reestablished, for our sakes and yours.

Jeff Bailey : 8/30/2005 3:10:35 PM

03:00 Internals found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 8/30/2005 3:09:32 PM

Headlines:

AIR TRANSPORT ASSOC ENDORSES USE OF U.S. PETROLEUM RESERVE

AIR TRANSPORT ASSOC: SPR WOULD EASE FUEL PRICE AFTER KATRINA

Jonathan Levinson : 8/30/2005 3:09:14 PM

Ten year note yields finished -8.1 bps at 4.092%, while the 13-week bill rate finished at 3.477%, -.8 bps for the day.

Linda Piazza : 8/30/2005 3:08:31 PM

Still a possibility that the advdec line will drop into the -2700 to -3300 zone, although it's currently testing one level where it could steady off. I'm still not quite seeing the definitive signs I need to see that the decline is finished, but that doesn't mean that you bears out there don't need to be protecting profits. Start making your plans as to whether you'll hold overnight or not and then, once you know that, deciding whether or not you want to risk a last hour bounce, if one should get started. I personally think that we're drawing closer to a countertrend bounce as the day goes on, although I've said probably too many times that I haven't seen signs of it starting yet and it might not get started until tomorrow. So, I'd be considering taking at least partial profit if you haven't already done so. I would consider any such bounce likely to be a countertrend one, and so it might go only a few points--impossible to tell from this vantage point.

Jeff Bailey : 8/30/2005 3:02:55 PM

03:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 8/30/2005 2:58:33 PM

30 and 60 min channel support for QQQQ now line up to within 2 cents of S1 at yesterday's and Friday's lows in the 38.25-.27 area: Link

Linda Piazza : 8/30/2005 2:58:12 PM

OEX sliding down Keltner support now at 556.88.

Jeff Bailey : 8/30/2005 2:57:07 PM

Goldman Sachs (GS) $109.66 -0.44% ... did undercut recent relative lows of $109.00 today with a trade at $108.86.

There was news this morning that a U.S. bankruptcy judge on Tuesday awarded Parmalat Finanziaria SpA two-and-a-half more months of protection against creditors' claims but suggested that the insolvent Italian dairy company address the contentions of a group of angry bondholders soon.

Goldman Sachs is a majority bondholder of Parmalat bonds and the firm (along with others) had asked the judge to end his injunction or create a U.S. procedure for bond holder claims. They also accused Parmalat of trying to block them from participating in a 12 billion euro ($14.4 billion) debt-for-equity swap that would give bondholders more than 50% of a new Parmalat.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/30/2005 2:54:12 PM

Headline:

KATRINA MAY COST INSURANCE INDUSTRY $17B-$25B -AIR WORLDWIDE

Jonathan Levinson : 8/30/2005 2:51:59 PM

Zooming out to a 5-day 100-tick view of QQQQ, with price currently at teh midpoint of descending channel: Link

Linda Piazza : 8/30/2005 2:50:33 PM

Advdec line coming down again. Still not the kind of bullish divergence I'd like to see there to be confident that the downside is about finished for this particular move, but there's an opportunity for it to show up this test. Watch -2260 for potential support, although a washout to -2700 or below might still be possible.

Jeff Bailey : 8/30/2005 2:49:16 PM

iShares Lehman 20-year (AMEX:TLT) $95.21 +0.65% ... did pull back into $94.95 from morning high, but rocketed back up from FOMC notes release.

Linda Piazza : 8/30/2005 2:48:07 PM

On the Futures side, they're talking about the Consumer Confidence number. Last week, I had an experience that reminded me of the stories of people getting out of the stock market because taxi drivers or shoe shine persons gave them stock tips. Our prolonged drought here has brought an onslaught of ants, and ants can be vicious creatures in Texas. They were invading our house and attempting to carry off my golden retriever or at least his food each time I fed him. For the first time in decades, I was forced to call an exterminator. When discussing prices with me, he carefully explained why his costs were going up. That was because of increased gasoline prices, and he further went on (unnecessarily, but he didn't know that) to explain the domino effect. It wasn't just his gasoline costs, he explained, but the way high gasoline costs increased the costs of his products because of increased transport costs by his suppliers. I'm not demeaning this person at all, because his summary was quite astute and he's a business owner, but I'm saying that while some might be saying that fuel costs aren't impacting our economy much yet, that's not what the small business owners are saying.

Jeff Bailey : 8/30/2005 2:47:44 PM

10-year YIELD ($TNX.X) sharp break of upward trend from June "refinance" low. Down 6.6 bp at 41.07.

Jeff Bailey : 8/30/2005 2:46:35 PM

QQQQ $38.44 -0.82% ...

Jeff Bailey : 8/30/2005 2:45:43 PM

Airline Index (XAL.X) 46.48 -3.52% ... major drag on the transports today. Still "well off" a 52-week low (40.00 on 10/20/04) at this point.

Jeff Bailey : 8/30/2005 2:43:40 PM

Southwest Airlines (LUV) $13.19 -1.86% ... notable new 52-weeker on the big board. By a penny at $13.17, but a new low.

Jeff Bailey : 8/30/2005 2:41:17 PM

Amazon.com (AMZN) $42.32 -1.09% ... while lower today, still holds yesterday morning's lows of $41.91, and doesn't want to try and fill its 07/26-07/27 gap.

Usually, when I go on vacation this time of year, the markets have at least one good wash lower day.

Linda Piazza : 8/30/2005 2:37:32 PM

Still no clear evidence that the downside is finished. May be finished, but no clear evidence that I see yet. Could be getting close.

Linda Piazza : 8/30/2005 2:31:43 PM

The OEX is circled currently by 15-minute Keltner support and resistance lines, with little clarity as to which is stronger. As long as it's remaining below 558.80 on 15-minute closes, the possibility of a drop to 557.06-557.60 remains.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/30/2005 2:30:51 PM

Crude oil finished +2.65 or 3.94% at 69.85, natural gas +.46 or 4.13% at 11.60.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/30/2005 2:26:09 PM

The SOX is bouncing from a higher low at S1 after failing from a lower highat 468, while QQQQ continues to stick to the 72 SMA. Volume is shaping up slightly heavier for QQQQ compared with yesterday, while volume breadth remains negative. The picture continues to look bearish, but with price almost net unchanged since this morning, current levels remain a chop zone. Link

Linda Piazza : 8/30/2005 2:25:34 PM

I'm still not seeing the signs I'd need to see to suggest that either an OEX rollover bearish play or a countertrend bullish one was a good idea, although I'd need really strong signs to say that a bullish play was a good idea. It's rather more likely that I'd think it a possible idea. Not seeing the signs I need, though.

Jeff Bailey : 8/30/2005 2:24:36 PM

General Cable (BGC) $15.04 +0.26% .. finds a bit of a bid here.

Jeff Bailey : 8/30/2005 2:23:06 PM

Dave & Busters (DAB) $14.38 -2.57% ... our NASD friend is back today. He/she took the day off yesterday. I think NASD and PACX are slow short cover, where NASD then sets a higher mark for pressure.

While NASD shows 4 (400 to buy), he/she is usually good for more. Fun to watch NASD and PACX work the stock.

Level II capture at this Link

Linda Piazza : 8/30/2005 2:15:09 PM

OEX possibly vulnerable to 557.13 according to the 15-minute Keltner chart.

Jeff Bailey : 8/30/2005 2:13:55 PM

02:00 Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/30/2005 2:05:54 PM

10-year ($TNX.X) dumps to session low here. Down 5.3 at 41.20

Jonathan Levinson : 8/30/2005 2:05:38 PM

Ten year note yields are down an impressive 5.2 bps at 4.121%, while the 13-week bill rate is up .2 bps at 3.487% here. Short term money continues to appreciate against the price of longer term money, which looks bearish to me.

Linda Piazza : 8/30/2005 2:04:01 PM

If the OEX should continue climbing, watch the 561.36-562.30 level for potentially strong resistance. Pay particular attention if the advdec line is also at -270 or so. That's a big "if," though, with the OEX currently dropping. If the OEX should drop, pay particular attention to what happens as the advdec line approaches -2100, as there could be room for a potential steadying beginning about there.

Jeff Bailey : 8/30/2005 2:03:45 PM

Sell Program Premium ... DIA $103.84, SPX 1,205.66, QQQQ $38.45

Jonathan Levinson : 8/30/2005 2:03:11 PM

Not at current levels. The 30 min cycle is trying to turn up, the 60 min only now flattening, the daily cycle still trending in oversold and the weekly still declining. The recipe is almost perfect for sideways chop, and to make it worse, the short cycle is due for a downphase. Have to see how it looks at 30 min channel support at 38.35, but at current levels, it's just a blender.

Jeff Bailey : 8/30/2005 2:03:02 PM

02:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 8/30/2005 2:01:04 PM

Headlines:

FOMC MINUTES: INFLATION RISKS 'TICKED UP' OVER SUMMER

FOMC: PACE, EXTENT OF FUTURE HIKES DEPENDS ON DATA

FOMC: SOME SAW CORE INFLATION AT UPPER END OF STABLE RANGE

FOMC: SOME SAID MORE HIKES WOULD KEEP INFLATION IN CHECK

FOMC: SOME MEMBERS VIEWED MARKET INTEREST RATES AS TOO LOW

FOMC: MEMBERS SAW SIGNS OF COOLING IN HOUSING SECTOR

FOMC: TIMING, EXTENT OF HOUSING SLOWDOWN UNCERTAIN

FOMC MINUTES: FED STAFF RAISES CORE INFLATION FORECAST

FOMC MINUTES: FED STAFF SEES FULL EMPLOYMENT BY YR-END

FOMC MINUTES: FED STAFF CUTS 2006 GROWTH FORECAST

Jeff Bailey : 8/30/2005 2:00:36 PM

Jonathan ... do you have any convictions towards a QQQQ trade?

Jonathan Levinson : 8/30/2005 2:00:33 PM

FOMC minutes at this Link

Linda Piazza : 8/30/2005 1:58:54 PM

The OEX is not able to sustain levels above the five-minute 100/130-ema's so far, but the trendline off the day's low is holding. So far. There's still a possibility that the advdec line will drop back toward -2100, although that's not promised. Just a possibility.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/30/2005 1:55:25 PM

Volume breadth has improved a bit but remains weaker than yesterday, currently -1.79:1 for the NYSE and -2.03:1 for the Nasdaq.

Linda Piazza : 8/30/2005 1:52:43 PM

There has now been an OEX five-minute close above the five-minute 100/130-ema's, but it's coming right back down now to retest them. They're at 559.64 and 559.79, respectively, with the OEX at 559.68. Bulls want that to hold amd then want a test of the 20-minute versions.

Jeff Bailey : 8/30/2005 1:49:16 PM

10-year ($TNX.X) down 3.3 at 41.40, or 4.14%

Jeff Bailey : 8/30/2005 1:48:43 PM

From the looks of things, I'd think Treasuries would be the easier trade. Seems to follow the major indices, or seller/buyers influenced by the action.

Equity trader might well be thinking ... "now way above WEEKLY Pivots without more selling in TNX.X

Jonathan Levinson : 8/30/2005 1:47:44 PM

Headlines:

COAST GUARD: IMPOSSIBLE TO SAY WHEN PORTS CAN REOPEN

COAST GUARD: GULF COAST SHUT FROM NEW ORLEANS TO PANAMA CITY

Jeff Bailey : 8/30/2005 1:46:07 PM

SPX/QQQQ/TNX.X day trader's montage at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 8/30/2005 1:45:17 PM

Awaiting the 2PM release of the FOMC minutes from the August 9th meeting.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/30/2005 1:40:56 PM

Depends on how long it takes to get there. If slowly, then yes, because it will coincide with a corrective bottoming of the short cycle indicators. If quick, then the 30 min cycle upphase will likely be reversing, in which case we watch yesterday's lows again.

Jeff Bailey : 8/30/2005 1:36:53 PM

What do ya think QQQQ traders? A long on any type of dip back to $38.44?

Jeff Bailey : 8/30/2005 1:35:04 PM

Bearish day trade stop alert for the QQQQ $38.55

Jeff Bailey : 8/30/2005 1:33:28 PM

QQQQ $38.52

Linda Piazza : 8/30/2005 1:33:55 PM

It's possible that a countertrend bounce could have gotten underway without giving bullish divergence signals on anything other than the five-minute chart. Since those signals have not been seen, I haven't even been confident of a countertrend bounce, much less anything that's trustworthy. However, some may have gone long as the OEX retested yesterday's low. if so, you want to see the OEX move above the five-minute 100/130-ema's, averages that it's perhaps rising to test. Those are now at 559.61 and 559.78, respectively. Next you want the 20-minute 100/130-ema's at 561.65 and 562.48 to be topped on 20-minute closes. The 20-minute versions stopped a bounce on 8/24 and then again yesterday afternoon. OEX at 559.13 as I type.

Jeff Bailey : 8/30/2005 1:33:17 PM

Gulp!

Jonathan Levinson : 8/30/2005 1:33:09 PM

Volume breadth -1.95:1 on the NYSE and -2.04:1 on the Nasdaq.

Jeff Bailey : 8/30/2005 1:32:35 PM

Wellpoint (WLP) $71.13 +0.13% ... edges to session high.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/30/2005 1:32:21 PM

QQQQ's short cycle indicators have printed a bearish cross, but the 30 min channel continues to rise within the flattening 60 min channel downphase. Price has held 72 SMA support, a bullish sign, but so far the 30 min cycle upphase has been weak. The chances are good for continued chop, but the sell signal in the short cycle indicators suggests a downside bias so long as price holds below 38.50, which is current short cycle channel resistance. Link

Jonathan Levinson : 8/30/2005 1:27:24 PM

The 4-week bill auction sold at a high-yield of 3.395%, generating 2.25 bids for each accepted. Foreign central banks took 3.5B of the 15B total.

Jeff Bailey : 8/30/2005 1:27:18 PM

Bearish day trade lower stop alert for the QQQQ $38.45 ... to $38.55.

Jeff Bailey : 8/30/2005 1:23:01 PM

Bearish swing trade lower stop alert ... on the 1/2 bearish position in Dave & Busters (DAB) $14.47 -1.96% ... to $14.75.

Jeff Bailey : 8/30/2005 1:21:04 PM

There's a tick. 10-year down 4.5 bp at 41.28, or 4.128%.

QQQQ $38.43 -0.85% .... can probably lower a QQQQ bear stop just above that bounce high of $38.52. I would NOT want to be short should the QQQQ get back above WEEKLY/DAILY Pivot this week, let alone today.

Jeff Bailey : 8/30/2005 1:18:33 PM

If your 10-year YIELD ($TNX.X) chart is flatlined like mine has been for last 15 minutes, turn on the 30-year with a dynamic.

I think traders should be using bond yield direction as a cash generator (selling in bond/higher yield) or defensive cash stuffer (buying in bond/lower yield).

Linda Piazza : 8/30/2005 1:14:03 PM

OEX dropping again, currently testing the five-minute 21-ema that was supporting it since about noon. That average is now at 558.88, and the OEX is currently at 558.68, so is still within testing range of that average, but watching now to see if we get the kind of signal that suggests that the decline has truly lost strength and that a countertrend bounce might be in the works. Haven't seen any trustworthy signs until now.

Jeff Bailey : 8/30/2005 1:09:05 PM

01:00 Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/30/2005 1:02:12 PM

01:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 8/30/2005 1:01:31 PM

OEX between 559.99 Keltner resistance and 557.39-557.90 Keltner support. No clear direction yet. The bounce may have begun, but there was no confirmation yet of the type I want to see. No confidence in the bounce then.

Jeff Bailey : 8/30/2005 12:57:50 PM

Intl. Game Technology (IGT) $27.33 +1.14% Link ... thought of this slot machine maker during yesterday's hurrican focus.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/30/2005 12:49:05 PM

Stepping away for 45 minutes here.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/30/2005 12:48:44 PM

QQQQ's short cycle upphase has managed to turn the 30 min channel up, with upside resistance rising toward the 60 min channel top at 38.58. The short cycle indicators are approaching overbought territory, not there yet, and unless the price clears the pivot at 38.56 during the coming minutes, that upphase should begin to weaken. Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/30/2005 12:50:54 PM

SPX/QQQQ/TNX.X day trader's montage at this Link

Thinking that a QQQQ bear wants SPX back below 1,204.75 and TNX.X back below 41.31, or 4.131%. And QQQQ $38.42

Jeff Bailey : 8/30/2005 12:44:41 PM

Bearish day trade lower stop alert ... on the QQQQ $38.43, to $38.58.

Linda Piazza : 8/30/2005 12:42:57 PM

Still not seeing the signals I need to see that suggest that it's time for even a countertrend bullish play. That doesn't mean that it's not time, but those signals are just not there yet. A prolonged bounce can get started without giving those signals, but I'm not going to be suggesting any countrend longs without them. In fact, I won't be suggesting any countertrend longs just now anyway, but I would let you know what I see.

Jeff Bailey : 8/30/2005 12:36:33 PM

Bearish day trade entry point alert ... for the QQQQ $38.45 here.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/30/2005 12:36:04 PM

Crude oil is down to a 2.45 gain at 69.65. Natgas +.66 at 11.80 here.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/30/2005 12:30:10 PM

Back to find QQQQ's short cycle finally in a confirmed upphase, with price above its 72 SMA at 38.41. There's reverse h&s neckline support at 38.45, below which the short cycle upphase will begin to stall. But a bounce from there would imply an upside target of 38.60ish, which coincides with current 60 min channel resistance. Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/30/2005 12:27:09 PM

10-year YIELD ($TNX.X) down 3.8 bp here at 4.135%. Has edged off morning low of 4.120%.

Jeff Bailey : 8/30/2005 12:25:17 PM

QQQQ day trade short alert ... With QQQQ now $38.48, let's go short on weakness at $38.45.

Linda Piazza : 8/30/2005 12:26:17 PM

Here comes the first bounce, in the advdec line and the OEX, too. Bulls who want to try a countertrend play would now like to see a retest of the advdec Keltner support at -2100 or perhaps lower, at -2667, and would like to see bullish value/RSI divergence at that test. Might not get that retest, but any long play now will have to be considered possibly countertrend and you really want all your ducks in a row if you're going to try one of those. Although I did try a long play from Friday and closed it out yesterday for a miniscule profit before switching into a bearish play, I'm not personally tempted and especially not yet.

Jane Fox : 8/30/2005 12:21:08 PM

Jeff I show the Crude Continuous as a high of 70.95.

Jeff Bailey : 8/30/2005 12:21:36 PM

Some Energy Bullish Vertical Counts from Dorsey/Wright's Point and figure charts ....

Crude Oil Continuous is $71.75 after reversing higher double top buy signal at $59.25. It would currently take a trade at $65.75 to generate a double bottom sell signal.

Heating Oil Continuous is $2.04 after reversing higher double top buy signal at $1.87 (1 cent box size). It would currently take a reversing lower double bottom sell signal at $1.83 for first sign of meaningful weakness.

Unleaded Gas Continuous is $2.85 after reversing higher double top buy signal at $1.92. It would currently take a trade at $1.81 to generate a triple bottom sell signal.

Natural Gas Continuous is to $16.50 after generating a reversing higher double top buy signal at $10.05. It would currently take a reversing lower trade at $9.35 (5 cent box) to generate a double bottom sell signal.

Jeff Bailey : 8/30/2005 12:10:28 PM

12:00 Internals found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 8/30/2005 12:07:28 PM

Need to step away for a few minutes here.

Linda Piazza : 8/30/2005 12:05:55 PM

BIX still testing the bottom of its broadening formation. The OEX has been trailing behind the BIX, following each of its steps (testing the 200-sma, the 200-ema, etc.) about one or two steps behind. I think that the OEX might eventually have vulnerability to the bottom of its similar broadening formation, now at about 550. Of course if the BIX bounces from the bottom of its broadening formation, it might steady the OEX ahead of a touch of the bottom.

Jeff Bailey : 8/30/2005 12:04:43 PM

12:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/30/2005 12:04:55 PM

General Cable (BGC) $14.90 -0.66% Link ... I did talk with my buddy (known him since I was 4-years old) that is regional sales manager. Early sales calls were hard to get a pulse on, but he said Florida hurricane action earlier this year did bring roughly $10 million of new business in power cable. He said most utilities will replace bulk of damaged cable. Kicker might well be some of the greater damage to oil/gas cable business considering path of Katrina.

We shall see.

Jeff Bailey : 8/30/2005 11:57:28 AM

Wal-Mart (WMT) $44.90 -1.64% Link ... notable new 52-weeker on the big board, and Dow component. Sets up for test of multi-year low at $44.00.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/30/2005 11:57:12 AM

Thanks, Jeff. I had just dug it up on the Nymex site, but couldn't find any current news details. Here's the link: Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/30/2005 11:55:25 AM

Jonathan ... I do believe Unleaded Gas is/was "limit up," which is a gain of $0.25 per gallon.

NYMEX specifications: If any contract is traded, bid, or offered at the limit for five minutes, trading is halted for five minutes. When trading resumes, the limit is expanded by $0.25 per gallon in either direction. If another halt were triggered, the market would continue to be expanded by $0.25 per gallon in either direction after each successive five-minute trading halt. There will be no maximum price fluctuation limits during any one trading session.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/30/2005 11:53:00 AM

Jeff, did he need painkillers and did he suffer a lot? I have a friend with a big dog, contemplating surgery for a bad tendon, and they're really worried about what it might put him through.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/30/2005 11:51:48 AM

So far, QQQQ has failed to take out yesterday's opening low. Currently, the wavelet downphase in progress has not taken out the 38.32 low, setting up a possible reverse h&s on the 100 tick chart below 38.45. I'm not feeling bullish here- not with Greenspan talking tighter than we've heard in years and the energy complex rallying notwithstanding- but with the daily and intraday cycles near relative lows, a strong bounce is still a technical possibility.

Jeff Bailey : 8/30/2005 11:51:41 AM

Drake is fine Linda! Thanks for asking. He got his cast off his front leg, so he is starting to look like a dog again. He's got an appointment with the bathtub after the market closes!

Stopped and filled up the land yacht with diesel at $2.59 on the way home. May not see that price for a couple of weeks from the sounds of it.

Linda Piazza : 8/30/2005 11:51:11 AM

The OEX is essentially sliding lower along Keltner support that slides lower, too, but not really violating that support. That's at 557.62 on a 15-minute close, currently, with the OEX at 557.77. Those of you who held onto portions of your bearish positions should now just be following the OEX lower with your stops, or perhaps deciding whether you want to take all or a portion of the rest of your profits as yesterday's low is retested. I still see some possibility for some slight follow-through to the downside on the advdec line, but there's also the possibility that downside moves will slow soon, with a move down to -2650 to -3300. So, current bears just protect profits and make decisions about where you'd like your profit limit to be, and the rest wait patiently for a bullish entry or for the bounce that will give you your next bearish one. The advdec line on the Keltner chart has been a friend to bulls today, so far urging that it's not been time for a bullish entry, even for those who play countertrend plays, and it's been right. As I said earlier, I may miss a bullish entry waiting for the right signal, but since that entry might be a high-risk one suitable only for those who like to make their own decisions anyway, that's better than jumping on a bullish play too early. I do not suggest playing bullish countertrend plays but I'll tell you what I see when I see it. If I see it.

Linda Piazza : 8/30/2005 11:44:07 AM

Jeff, how's Drake?

Jeff Bailey : 8/30/2005 11:42:38 AM

SPX/QQQQ day trader's montage at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 8/30/2005 11:40:22 AM

Volume breadth -2.19:1 on the NYSE, -2.84:1 on the Nasdaq.

Jeff Bailey : 8/30/2005 11:39:17 AM

Sell Program Premium ... DIA $103.68, SPX 1,203.35, QQQQ $38.37

Linda Piazza : 8/30/2005 11:34:52 AM

Still see a possibility for more downside on the advdec line, carrying equities lower with it if it does drop, but that's just a possibility and not a probability as yet. Still seeing some bullish divergence as the advdec line drops on the five-minute chart, but would sure like to be seeing it on the 15-minute and 30-minute, too, before I concluded that the advdec line was through tumbling lower.

The OEX bounces from just above yesterday's lower, into first Keltner resistance at 558.55. Still don't see that there's a clear signal as yet for those intrepid souls who want to go long on a possible countertrend bounce. I may miss any such signal, but so be it.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/30/2005 11:32:44 AM

I can't get quotes on unleaded gasoline futures through Interactive Brokers, but am hearing that they've halted, limit up. Will try to find an alternate quote source.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/30/2005 11:31:03 AM

Equities are bouncing as crude oil "dives" from its 70.95 high to 70.325. QQQQ's trending short cycles are turning up, and a move above the 72 SMA at 38.46 would stall the 30 min cycle downphase. Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/30/2005 11:29:13 AM

Bearish day trade setup alert for the QQQQ $38.42.

After the failure at correlative WEEKLY Pivot/Daily Pivot, I'm looking to short the QQQQ at $38.47, stop $38.65 to begin, then target $38.10-$38.02.

Will follow with the SPX/QQQQ day trader's montage in a minute.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/30/2005 11:25:40 AM

IB is back online for me.

Linda Piazza : 8/30/2005 11:24:57 AM

Now the advdec line finally approaches one of the two lines I wanted to see it approach--either a drop toward -2626 or a bounce toward -880 to -460 (numbers have changed since earlier post). Advdec line at -2226 as I type. I still haven't gotten a signal that this is a good time to attempt a long even for those brave souls who like countertrend plays but am beginning to see some bullish divergences as the advdec line drops on the shorter-term five-minute chart, but not definitively yet on the 15-minute one. OEX trying to steady on last Keltner support before a drop to 556.27, so bears need to exercise care here.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/30/2005 11:22:59 AM

My IB feed has just died.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/30/2005 11:21:21 AM

QQQQ's 30 min channel declines to 38.25, with crude oil now up 5.28% at a new high of 70.75. QQQQ chart at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 8/30/2005 11:16:18 AM

Session high for Oct. crude oil at 70.50 here.

Linda Piazza : 8/30/2005 11:16:08 AM

OEX still testing Keltner support now at 557.91 on the 15-minute chart, with next support at 556.34 if this support being tested fails. Although the OEX just closed a 15-minute period slightly below that level, it didn't close far below it, and so that support might not yet be breached. OEX 556.34 remains possible but perhaps not probable.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/30/2005 11:15:32 AM

Session high for 10 year notes here at 112 9/64, TNX down 4.6 bps to 4.127% The 13-week bill rate still holds +1 bp at 3.495%.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/30/2005 11:13:20 AM

GE is down 1.82% to a session low of 32.99 here.

Jeff Bailey : 8/30/2005 11:13:06 AM

Current OPEN MM Profiles found at this Link

Traders should be swing trade stopped out alert on the iShares Lehmna 20-year (AMEX:TLT) when it traded $95.95.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/30/2005 11:10:56 AM

Session high for crude oil at 70.175 here, natural gas +.66 at 11.805.

Jeff Bailey : 8/30/2005 11:08:09 AM

Monday's Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/30/2005 11:07:34 AM

11:00 Internals found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 8/30/2005 11:05:09 AM

QQQQ's trending short cycle indicators are making another attempt to turn up, complete with a bullish Macd divergence (lower pane) against the last low to 38.342: Link

Jonathan Levinson : 8/30/2005 11:02:26 AM

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- General Motors (GM: news, chart, profile) is recalling 804,000 trucks and SUVs because the vehicles may experience unexpected antilock braking activation, according to the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration. "This can cause increased stopping distances during low-speed brake applications, which could result in a crash," NHTSA said. The recall covers 1999-2002 Chevy Avalanche, Silverado, Suburban, and Tahoe as well as GMC Sierra, Yukon, and Yukon XL.

Jeff Bailey : 8/30/2005 11:01:43 AM

11:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 8/30/2005 10:58:12 AM

A hint of bullish OEX/RSI divergence as this morning's OEX low was hit. This is on the 15-minute chart. Of course, that can be erased if the OEX heads lower again. It serves as a warning only, to those bears who haven't yet made plans to protect their positions. It does not necessarily signal a good bullish entry. I keep watching for signs that such an entry would be a good idea, but just don't see enough to suggest it. May be a mistake, but that's what I see.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/30/2005 10:55:45 AM

Volume breadth -1.78:1 for the NYSE, -2.39:1 for the Nasdaq.

Linda Piazza : 8/30/2005 10:49:24 AM

Advdec line again approaching potential support as the OEX tests potential support. The thirty-minute Keltner chart of the advdec line suggests the possibility of more downside, though, so evidence isn't as clear-cut as I'd like to see it. I'd like to see either a drop in the advdec line to -2590 or so and then bullish divergence as that line is retested for a bullish entry for aggressive traders who play countertrend plays (not what I feel confident about right now) or else a climb up to -600 to -300 and a rollover from there for a bearish entry. Neither of those has happened, and it's just a case of those already in bearish plays continuing to follow the OEX lower with their stops and protect their profits.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/30/2005 10:48:29 AM

Crude oil prints 70, natural gas 11.705, off its earlier 11.92 high.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/30/2005 10:43:50 AM

30 min channel support is down to 38.34, and short cycle indicators in gear to the downside, the short cycles starting to trend. Although I have trouble believing it, the fundamental bearishness of rallying crude, natural gas and gasoline could be beginning to sink in.

Linda Piazza : 8/30/2005 10:40:27 AM

Looks as if the advdec line had all the bounce it was going to have for the near-term anyway. OEX headed down toward its 558.29 Keltner target on the 15-minute Keltner channel. OEX at 558.74 as I type. Be aware of the possibility of a steadying in the advdec line near -1850 to -2000.

Linda Piazza : 8/30/2005 10:32:06 AM

The RLX has broken below 450. Without a quick bounce back above it, the RLX looks vulnerable now to that 200-sma at 443. I already thought it looked vulnerable to that level, so this is no surprise. RLX at 448.51 as I type.

Linda Piazza : 8/30/2005 10:29:07 AM

As I mentioned was my habit earlier, I exited my OEX bearish play before the 10:00 number. Right now, I don't see a new entry either direction, although I'm watching for the possibility of one presenting. Those in bearish positions who took only partial profit (but if you haven't already, you might do so now) just have to keep their plans in mind, made previous to that 10:00 release. I still see a possibility of some more bounce in the advdec line, perhaps either bouncing the OEX or just keeping it steady here for a while longer, before the potential for another rollover presents itself and causes the OEX to dip further, but the Keltner setup is a bit ambiguous now. I don't see the advdec line as having shown that it's through with the downside yet, so it's just a question of whether there's an interim bounce or not.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/30/2005 10:25:01 AM

QQQQ's 30 min channel bottom has sunk to 38.37 here. So far, that short cycle upphase has done nothing: Link

Jonathan Levinson : 8/30/2005 10:23:28 AM

Headline:

[F] FORD MOTOR CREDIT OFFERS PAYMENT DEFERRAL TO KATRINA VICTIMS

I saw something similar from FNM yesterday with some kind of relief for mortgage payments, but did not catch the details or the link.

Linda Piazza : 8/30/2005 10:22:41 AM

Next OEX Keltner support below the currently being tested 560.84 is at 558.41. Next resistance at 560.72-560.84. As the advdec line climbs off its low, the OEX isn't showing much inclination to climb with it, but that could still change. For now, it just tries to steady. Watch what happens if the advdec line should reach -600 to -300 or so, though, watching for the possibility that the advdec line could roll down again.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/30/2005 10:18:45 AM

Session high for crude oil at 69.40, +2.2.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/30/2005 10:16:25 AM

Still no followup from the Fed with its 3B repo drain. The stop out rate was 3.54 on Treasury collateral and 3.59 on Agencies... both above the 3.5% target rate and indicating that Greenspan may have meant what he said at Jackson Hole this weekend. Certainly tighter action than usual from the Fed if they don't announce an overnight repo today, but it's growing late in the morning for them to do so.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/30/2005 10:10:31 AM

Oct. crude at a session high of 69.10 here, +2.8%.

Linda Piazza : 8/30/2005 10:10:03 AM

OEX still looking vulnerable to 558.42 on the 15-minute Keltner chart, but not sure whether it will reach it or not just now. Bears want 15-minute closes to remain beneath a Keltner line currently at 561.11.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/30/2005 10:09:59 AM

Headlines:

OCT CRUDE CLIMBS $1.50, OR 2.2%, TO $68.70 IN EARLY TRADE

OCT NATGAS UP 41.1C, OR 3.7%, AT $11.55/MLN BTUS

SEPT UNLEADED GAS AT A NEW RECORD OF $2.17/GAL, UP 5.3%

Linda Piazza : 8/30/2005 10:07:27 AM

Okay, OEX bears, you had an opportunity to take partial profit or full profit ahead of the 10:00 number and revise your trading plan if in a bearish position, so keep your plan in mind. I still see some signs that another rollover is possible, but the OEX is within a well-established (from May and June) chop zone and anything can happen today. The action of the advdec line leads me to suspect that there might be another dip, too, but that doesn't mean that you should ignore your plan, because the evidence I see there isn't necessarily great market-timing evidence. It sure would keep me from going long just yet, though.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/30/2005 10:05:22 AM

A short cycle upphase has kicked off for QQQQ, but with the 30 and 60 min channels pointed south, I'm expecting it to be corrective only. A move above 38.70 could change that- depends on how long it takes to occur. Volume breadth is currently -1.75:1 on the NYSE, -1.87:1 on the Nasdaq.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/30/2005 10:02:33 AM

Factory orders -1.9% vs. -2.3 exp, prior revised from 1% to .9%.

Linda Piazza : 8/30/2005 10:02:12 AM

Advdec line trying to bounce now. Watch how it behaves near -600 to -300, as that could be a possible rollover point.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/30/2005 10:02:01 AM

Con-con 105.6 vs. 101 exp., prior revised from 103.2 to 103.6.

Linda Piazza : 8/30/2005 10:01:24 AM

Just corrected the 72-ema on the RLX in my 10:00 post. Looked at the wrong number.

Linda Piazza : 8/30/2005 10:00:58 AM

As we await the 10:00 release, I'm watching a chart of the RLX. I note that the RLX has been finding resistance for a week now at the 72-ema on the daily chart, at 455.46 currently, and it looks vulnerable to a decline to the 200-sma, now at 443.01. A daily close beneath 450 or even a sustained intraday move below it would make that possibility look stronger, while a daily close above the 72-ema would present the possibility of a stronger bounce. The RLX may be impacted by the 10:00 number, and is important in OEX behavior, I think.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/30/2005 9:58:05 AM

Session high for ten year notes at 112 1/64, TNX down 3 bps at 4.143%. The 13-week bill rate is up .9 bps to 3.494%.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/30/2005 9:56:18 AM

The Fed has just replaced its expiring 6.25B overnight repo with a 3.25B 2-day repo, still leaving the door open to add an overnight during the coming minutes. So far, there's a net drain of 3B.

Linda Piazza : 8/30/2005 9:56:45 AM

Although I'm anticipating the possibility of a bounce, it's not a probability yet, and I see it so far as a possible countertrend bounce. I don't see signs of a new bullish OEX entry just yet, especially as there's the possibility of a rather quick rollover and more downside.

Linda Piazza : 8/30/2005 9:54:54 AM

That bounce I suggested might be in the works still might be in the works, but it's not a given. OEX trying to steady near 560, above the 557-558-ish support. Advdec line trying to steady, too, but for now, I'd consider any bounce a countertrend bounce. Just have to question whether you want to stay in a profitable bearish play when there's the possibility of a bounce and when that important number is due at 10:00. I'm the kind who usually likes to exit and watch, knowing that I'll possibly lose more profit, or at least take partial profit. Make your own decision, though.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/30/2005 9:49:53 AM

QQQQ is back to where it was at 10:15 AM yesterday, still walking the 30 and 60 min channels lower. The short cycle indicators are oversold now, and 72 SMA resistance is down to 38.70. It will take a move above 38.70 to stall the synchronous 30 and 60 min cycle downphases from here.

Linda Piazza : 8/30/2005 9:45:12 AM

No bounce yet in the advdec line, but it's definitely reaching potential bounce territory on the 15-minute chart. That means that you OEX bears who entered yesterday on the rollover need to be making decisions as to whether you want to weather a bounce or not, particularly ahead of 10:00 data. Depending on your circumstances, trading style, etc., you might want to take partial profits and reset stops on the rest or else take full profits and just congratulate yourself for holding overnight.

Linda Piazza : 8/30/2005 9:40:30 AM

There's the possibility of a bounce any time now--suggested by the 15-minute Keltner chart of the advdec line and by the OEX's approach to 560 possible support, but the 30- and 60-minute advdec charts suggest that there could still be more downside to go, perhaps after the bounce suggested (as a possibility only, not necessarily a probability) by the 15-minute chart. Still, pay careful attention to your bearish positions, with some perhaps electing to take partial profits, if they have them at this point.

Linda Piazza : 8/30/2005 9:36:56 AM

Those in bearish OEX positions from the rollover yesterday from under the 200-ema need to be aware that the advdec line is dropping into potential support. It hasn't slowed yet and may not, but be aware of the potential support being approached. If the advdec line bounces, the OEX might, too.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/30/2005 9:34:31 AM

Volume breadth -2.38:1 on the NYSE, -1.9:1 on the Nasdaq.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/30/2005 9:33:12 AM

The downside keltner breach for QQQQ at the open should see bulls push back, but because the 30 and 60 min channels are in rollover mode, that bounce is less likely than it would normally be. Link

Linda Piazza : 8/30/2005 9:32:30 AM

The OEX continues the rollover begun yesterday, with the advdec line dropping strongly this morning. In fact, it's dropping so strongly that bears need to be careful of their OEX positions if the advdec line should drop down toward -1590, with that line now at -1040. There could be a bounce in the advdec line from that -1590 to -1600 level.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/30/2005 9:09:16 AM

Natural gas is up .74 to 11.88, 12 cents off its 12.00 high from Sunday night's open. Crude oil is up 1.50 at 68.70, 2.05 off its Sunday night high.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/30/2005 9:07:42 AM

This morning's drop has turned down the 30 min cycle for QQQQ, while the 60 min is stalling but has yet to reverse. If QQQQ breaks and holds below the 38.60 level, the 60 min cycle should turn down as well. Normally, that would suggest several hours' worth of downside bias, but if the daily cycle is turning up, then that could be truncated. For this reason, the next few hours will be key. Bulls need to break and hold above the 38.85 level, while bears need to stay below 38.60 at minimum.

Linda Piazza : 8/30/2005 9:05:37 AM

Yesterday, the OEX rose up to test the 200-ema from below, closing the day just below that 200-ema at 562.84. While the action looked bullish, the OEX has a nasty little habit of moving and then consolidating, up one day and down the next, each day's movement reversing the prior day's, with perhaps a doji day between the two. In fact, in late May and early June, the OEX consolidated in a zone roughly from 558 on the bottom to 563.40-565 on the top, with many daily candles encompassing that whole distance. That's just about the OEX's range yesterday, too. That means there's historical precedent for an up-and-down rectangular consolidation in just this same zone. That means that bulls can't count on the gains continuing, no matter how bullish yesterday looked.

The advdec line approached and breached 30-minute Keltner resistance, but it rarely stays above that resistance for more than a couple of hours, and it almost never closes above the 60-minute Keltner resistance now near 2125. Yesterday's close set up the possibility of more upside this morning, perhaps in a pop-and-drop type day, but futures this morning so far argue against that possibility. If the advdec line should open much below 1107, two possibilities exist. A rollover could have already begun, or there could be a move up to retest that resistance. If there's a move up in the advdec line to retest that resistance, then want-to-be bears should look for a potential rollover in the advdec line and then in equities. Remember as you're making up your mind about positions that in the OEX, a move up to 564-565 is not yet ruled out, but the positioning of the advdec line suggests that there could soon--within some hours, perhaps--be a topping out of this current move if it hasn't topped out already.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/30/2005 8:56:47 AM

The 13-week bill rate is up 2.2 bps to 3.507%, ten year note yield down 1.7 bps to 4.156%.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/30/2005 8:55:04 AM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Sales at major U.S. retail chain stores fell 0.3% last week, the fourth decline in a row, the International Council of Shopping Centers said Tuesday. Same-store sales decelerated to 3.9% year-over-year growth from 4% the previous week. "Consumers continue to worry about those high energy expenses and are scaling back on discretionary spending," said Michael Niemira, chief economist for the shopping center group. ICSC expects August same-store sales to increase by about 4% year-over-year when most companies report on Thursday.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/30/2005 8:22:01 AM

Ten year notes are holding a slight loss, with TNX opening +.5 bps at 4.178%. Oct. gold has been slammed for a 6.7 loss, now at a session low of 431.60.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/30/2005 7:40:03 AM

Equities are down, ES trading 1211, NQ 1571, YM 10448 and QQQQ -.08 at 38.68. Gold is down 3 to 435.30, silver is down .0006 to 6.729, ten year notes are down 3/64 at 111 11/16, crude oil is up 1.05 to 68.25 and natgas is +.585 to 11.725.

We await the 10AM release of Consumer confidence, est. 101, Factory Orders, -2.3%, and at 2PM, the FOMC minutes.

Linda Piazza : 8/30/2005 7:09:58 AM

Good morning. Once again, our thoughts are with those readers who are either located in or have friends and relatives in the area hit by Hurricane Katrina. Our family spent much of yesterday and last night desperately trying to find out any information about a paramedic friend sent from Dallas into the New Orleans area, with out last contact with him being that the bottom floor of the two-story building in which he was sheltering had flooded. Later we learned that the roof may have been ripped off the building, but his station contacted my daughter early this morning and said all 15 paramedics and EMT's sent by his company were safe. These kinds of stories are being repeated everywhere, and our thoughts go out to those still trying to assess the whereabouts and health of their loved ones and the state of their property.

The Nikkei posted another double-digit gain last night, but other Asian markets were mixed. European markets gain, although the DAX's gain is tepid. Our futures are lower as of 6:56 EST. As of that same time, gold was lower by $1.20, and crude, higher by $0.29, to $68.12. This morning, a Nigerian representative tried to calm crude prices by saying that OPEC would raise quotas at the September 19 meeting, but some feel that Nigeria itself is already pumping at capacity, at least until its new field is in production next year, and that OPEC itself is producing oil well above quota, so the statement has made little difference so far. More detail about Asian and European markets follows in succeeding paragraphs.

I would not want to hold a position overnight on the Nikkei 225. Night before last, the Nikkei gapped lower, breaking through 11,400 support, and last night, the Nikkei gapped higher, breaking back above that former support. By the end of the day, it was 143.31 points or 1.16% higher, at 12,453.14. Banks, including Mizuho Financial Group Inc., led the early gains, although Sumitomo Trust & Banking Co. struggled in early trading after the company said that it and shareholders would sell 25 billion yen of stock. According to one article, the bank intends to use the proceeds for business operations. Car makers also gained. This Nikkei gain occurred although Japan's July unemployment rate rose unexpectedly to 4.4%, up from June's 4.2%, with that number lending doubt that Japan's recovery is working as smoothly as had been hoped. The job offers-seekers ratio also rose to 0.97, higher than the expectations for a flat rate of 0.96. Workers' spending for July dropped into a 3.3% year-over-year decline against expectations that it would rise 0.8-0.9% year over year. Wage earners' real revenue, household heads' fixed revenue, and extraordinary revenue all declined, sending real disposable income down 3.3% year over year, too. The numbers translated into a real consumption rate that fell 3.6% month-over-month in relationship to the GDP. Later, large stores retail sales fell 1.6% year over year in July, not as steep a decline as June's 1.9% year-over-year decline nor as steep as the expected 1.7% decline. Overall retail sales climbed 0.6% year over year, down from June's 3.1% rise and lower than the expected 2.4% gain. Yesterday, the vice finance minister had warned that corporate profits and consumer spending may be impacted by rising crude costs.

Other Asian markets were mixed. The Taiwan Weighted was lower by 0.29%, but South Korea's Kospi climbed 0.89%. Singapore's Straits Times dropped 0.15%, but Hong Kong's Hang Seng rose 0.57%. China's Shanghai Composite dropped 0.70%.

Most European markets turn in positive performances, although the DAX's figure is only tepidly positive. In both Asia and Europe, rebounds have been pegged on relief that Katrina's damage has not been more severe. As had happened in Japan, car makers gain. Airline stocks gain, too. In the U.K., July's net consumer credit was weaker than expected when measured against a revised-higher June number. Mortgage approvals rose but total mortgage lending was weak. The 12.1% year-over-year increase in annual growth was the slowest growth in more than four years. In the U.K., gains in BP help that bourse. In other stock-specific news in Europe, chip manufacturer Infineon Technologies announced that it would be supplying Microsoft with components for its new Xbox 360, and Infineon was gaining in early trading. Morgan Stanley raised the price target for steel producer Corus Group, and it was also gaining, pulling other steel producers higher, too. Shares of German chemicals company BASF inched higher in early trading after the company said it would spend 200 million euros to expand production capacity in a plant that produces ethylene.

As of 6:56 EST, the FTSE 100 was higher by 31.00 points or 0.59%, at 5,259.10. The CAC 40 was higher by 13.21 points or 0.30%, at 4,374.48. The DAX was higher by only 0.70 points or 0.01%, at 4,812.94.

Market Monitor Archives