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Jeff Bailey : 8/31/2005 10:55:51 PM

Pivot Matrix for Thursday at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/31/2005 10:20:24 PM

Energy Analyst Interview delayed ... I have been unable to sit down with Tom Covington, an energy analyst with AG Edwards. As you can imagine, Tom has been VERY BUSY the past couple of days and had to cancel our meeting. I had hoped to probe his brain on some fundamental questions regarding oil and natural gas stocks. When I get back from vacation, things will have probably calmed down at the AG Edwards energy desk, and Tom and I can get together then.

This may be for the better as we might learn some new dynamics (bullish and bearish) that present themselves after Hurricane Katrina.

Jeff Bailey : 8/31/2005 10:05:15 PM

Current OPEN MM Profile Stops/targets ... I will be out of the office from tomorrow morning and will not return until Monday September 12. Here is a recap of action points for current OPEN positions that I've profiled at this Link

Should the KO-KI trade $1.70, I would look to sell those calls at that price (I have placed an order to sell these calls at that price while I'm away on vacation).

Should the UNDERLYING shares of WLP trade $80.00, I would sell the two (2) WLP-LO calls. (I have placed an order to sell these calls at $6.40, which is eyeball pricing at this point).

Should the UNDERLYING shares of MTRX trade $12.50, I would look to sell these calls at that price. (I have placed an order to sell 2 of these in my own account at an eyeball price of $5.50)

OI Technical Staff : 8/31/2005 9:59:59 PM

The Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

Disclaimer: Stocks discussed in the Market Monitor are for educational purposes only and any analysis is not meant to imply a recommendation for or against that stock. The analysts in this forum as on any other website are prohibited by the SEC from giving any specific advice to ANY individual trader. All information posted is for ALL readers and is not meant to be directed to any individual. Our analysts cannot answer any email questions regarding any specific stock. Please do not ask and please do not take offense if requests are denied.

Results posted in the Market Monitor are hypothetical and OIN does not claim that any reader achieved these exact results. Due to the lag time between research, writing, posting, uploading, reading and execution there will be differences between the actual signal given and the fill achieved by the reader. Fills may be better or worse but in most cases they will be different. The writers will make every effort to give advance notice of intended signals and indicate potential price targets. Your individual results may vary depending on your activity level and aggressiveness. This forum is intended as an education service only. Trading involves risk and should not be attempted by anyone not ready to accept this risk. By acting on any signal in this forum you agree and personally accept this risk.

Jeff Bailey : 8/31/2005 9:36:29 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles found at this Link ... Today's Activity ... Swing trade bullish for three (3) Matrix Service Co. MTRX Feb $7.5 Calls (QXW-BU) at $1.45. No stop at this time on the options, targeting $12.50 on the stock.

Swing trade closed out/bought back the two (2) Wellpoint WLP Sep $75 Calls (WLP-IO) for $0.65 ($+0.35, or +35.00%).

Continued to lower stop on the Dave & Busters (DAB) short, with stop now at $14.40, targeting $14.00.

Question: What is a picket fence? $1.11, 11.11, 111.11, sometimes called "a bone yard."

Question: What is a bone? $1

Jeff Bailey : 8/31/2005 4:53:06 PM

Closing U.S. Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/31/2005 4:36:15 PM

Closing Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/31/2005 4:13:03 PM

Buy Program Premium ... DIA $104.84, SPY $122.55

Jeff Bailey : 8/31/2005 3:59:14 PM

SPX 1,220.20 ... another 1.5 and you'll be there.

Linda Piazza : 8/31/2005 3:57:34 PM

I may have to temper that expectation that I mentioned in my 3:51 post, because I'm getting conflicting information from my study of the 15-minute and 60-minute Keltner chart. Sixty-minute says the climb should be about over. The last three times the 15-minute showed such evidence at the close, though, the open was near the low of the day and the OEX climbed the rest of the day. So, there's conflicting evidence and all that more reason for those stops to be adhered to.

Linda Piazza : 8/31/2005 3:51:15 PM

My expectations for tomorrow are for either a consolidation day after today's big range or for a decline as the OEX maneuvers higher in a possible bear flag. I could be wrong, and I was obviously wrong about the timing of a bearish entry today. There could be a push higher in the OEX tomorrow morning (see 8/10 and 8/22, the last two times the advdec line was testing the current Keltner channel line) but I wouldn't think it would be sustained, as it wasn't those two days.

Jeff Bailey : 8/31/2005 3:46:36 PM

Swing trade close out covered call alert ... for those two (2) coverd WLP Sep. $75 Calls (WLP-IO) at the offer of $0.65. These were sold on 08/18 for $1.00

Linda Piazza : 8/31/2005 3:45:24 PM

OEX above the 200-ema and now testing the 10-sma. If it can maintain values above that 10-sma at 563.43, a test of the important 100-sma might be next, with that average at 564.53. Looks as if we're going to get a climb into the close.

Jeff Bailey : 8/31/2005 3:44:20 PM

Wellpoint (WLP) $74.07 +0.94% ... oh my! Closing in on a 52-week high.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/31/2005 3:41:30 PM

Power outage here- shutting down on battery.

Linda Piazza : 8/31/2005 3:41:20 PM

Those charts in my 3:34 and 3:38 posts are the reasons that I'm personally hanging in, but if the OEX should continue climbing, I'm going to get whacked when I take my loss. That's okay with me because I know how much it's okay for me to risk and I'll stick with it, but the rest of you should also know how much you were willing to risk and stick with that.

Jeff Bailey : 8/31/2005 3:38:36 PM

Goldman Sachs (GS) $111.17 +1.23% ... "picket fenced" and pressing new session highs.

Linda Piazza : 8/31/2005 3:38:08 PM

And here's another chart. Note the bearish value/RSI divergence, so far still continuing. Link

Linda Piazza : 8/31/2005 3:34:53 PM

Okay, so most of you should have exited the OEX bearish play. I've got a string of profitable plays behind me, so I'm hanging in there for a while longer, taking a bigger loss perhaps than I'd want to suggest that readers take. However, here's one chart I'm watching. You don't need to know a lot about Keltner charts. Just notice the top black channel line and the RSI value as that top black channel line is hit. Of course, there's not always an immediate one-on-one reaction in the advdec line and the OEX value, but this chart, among others, says that the advdec line might not climb too much further, although it could climb into the end of the day, carrying the OEX with it. I really didn't think the OEX would get this high as some signs suggested that the advdec line would top out a bit sooner than this. Link

Jonathan Levinson : 8/31/2005 3:32:24 PM

QQQQ - Exit Point Alert -

Stopped Out QQQQ short at 38.93, -.08.

Linda Piazza : 8/31/2005 3:29:02 PM

OEX trying to pierce its rising wedge from this week to the upside as I type. Again, all I can say is that I still see signs of the movement topping out, but that a breakout is not precluded and so you must adhere to the stops you set as you entered a bearish play. I'm basing my own decision on movements of the advdec line and not the raw value of the OEX, and so I might not exit at the same time you would, although I of course do not want to suffer great losses, either. The 200-ema is now being tested from the underside.

Jeff Bailey : 8/31/2005 3:23:43 PM

VIX.X 13.12 -3.88% ... did kiss WEEKLY S1.

QQQQ $38.86 +0.59% ... still off WEEKLY R1.

SPX.X 1,215.49 +0.48% ... might be a "quick 6" to WEEKLY R1.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/31/2005 3:20:08 PM

SOX is breaking its upper 30 min channel top here, QQQQ still edging slowly toward to 38.90 level. It's worth a try here with a tight stop.

QQQQ - Entry Point Alert -

Short QQQQ at 38.85, stop 38.93

Linda Piazza : 8/31/2005 3:13:41 PM

OEX above the 20-minute 100/130-ema's on a 20-minute close. Still see signs of a possible topping out process, but that's not going to help you if the OEX keeps climbing, so adhere to the stops you set when you first entered the play.

Jeff Bailey : 8/31/2005 3:12:16 PM

03:00 Internals found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 8/31/2005 3:08:06 PM

QQQQ has once again stalled below the 30 and 60 min channel tops, but this time it isn't reversing, driving the channels higher and effectively building a launchpad. If QQQQ bulls can break the 38.81 R1, it should be a quick run to the 30 min channel top at R2, 38.90. That would be the ideal short entry here. Alternately, longs would want to see a retest of the session low to enter, where 30 min channel support currently resides. Volume is much weaker than today, which might explain the ambiguous indicator and cycle readings all day. But the longer price holds up near the highs, the more bullish it looks for the longer intraday and daily cycles.

Jeff Bailey : 8/31/2005 3:03:36 PM

03:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 8/31/2005 3:00:33 PM

Remember, whatever I'm seeing about a possible topping-out process should not convince you to stay in a bearish position if your stop is being hit on an OEX position. There's always the possibility of a breakout, and I've been quite frank about that today.

Jeff Bailey : 8/31/2005 3:00:38 PM

Market Carpet ... note #5 and positive change in market cap. (Money Center Banks) Link

Linda Piazza : 8/31/2005 2:58:24 PM

Advdec line should now be close to topping out.

Jeff Bailey : 8/31/2005 2:58:01 PM

Another flood play? MapInfo (MAPS) $11.23 +3.12% Link ... note recent gap higher. Sounds as if there will be a lot of utility construction in coming months.

Linda Piazza : 8/31/2005 2:57:43 PM

OEX again testing the prevous HOD, as well as the 20-minute 100/130-ema's at 560.86 and 561.58. Right there at the 130-ema as I type. Want to see a 20-minute close above them before you consider them breached, though.

Linda Piazza : 8/31/2005 2:56:11 PM

Advdec line still climbing toward the target and next strong resistance near 2500. These numbers change quickly, and an advdec line climb is going to push them higher. Advdec line now at 2307.

Linda Piazza : 8/31/2005 2:53:33 PM

By the way, Katrina had nothing to do with my OEX position today. That was purely on technicals, technicals that obviously are taking some time to play out, if they're going to do so. Still those same signs I watch of a possible topping-out process, but still the same possibility of a breakout, too.

Linda Piazza : 8/31/2005 2:52:08 PM

My husband is an attorney for an international company with a major presence in New Orleans. As of yesterday, they weren't even able to contact anyone in their company. They don't know if their offices or other facilities still exist. That may have changed today, but that's a story being repeated with multiple companies, small and large. That's not even talking about distribution of goods through the port or disruption of crude production.

Jeff Bailey : 8/31/2005 2:51:24 PM

Hewlett Packard (HPQ) $27.75 +2.39% Link ... notable new 52-weeker at the big board. With stock closing in on its bullish vertical count of $28.50, bulls may look to take some profits or raise stops under recent consolidation of $26.00

Linda Piazza : 8/31/2005 2:49:46 PM

Bears sure would like to see the advdec line drop beneath 1400 (advdec on QCharts) and stay there. Preferably before it hits 2500. Smile.

Linda Piazza : 8/31/2005 2:43:56 PM

OEX testing those 20-minute 100/130-ema's at 560.85 and 561.58, with the OEX at 561.07 as I type. The 38.2% retracement of the bear-market decline is at 561.23. The daily 200-ema at 563.02. I said earlier today that I didn't expect the OEX to get much above 562, if it got that far. It hasn't gotten that far, yet, but it still can't be ruled out, unfortunately, especially as the possibility exists that we could still see a pop higher in the advdec line at any time. Still some signs of a topping out process, but the OEX is sure taking its time to top out, if that's going to happen, isn't it? So far, I'm still not alarmed, but just tired of waiting. I still advise adhering to those stops. So far, they shouldn't have been violated, but if you're worried about the lack of follow-through, go ahead and exit, probably for a small loss. I'm staying in.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/31/2005 2:43:47 PM

Thanks to reader John for sending this update at Link :

NEW ORLEANS -- The mayor of New Orleans said at least hundreds of people are dead in the city, and maybe thousands, in the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina.

Mayor Ray Nagin also said it will be at least two or three months before New Orleans has electricity. During that time, he said, there will be no commmerce in the city.

Nagin said there's a "significant number" of dead bodies in the water that now covers most of New Orleans. And he says there are others dead in attics. When asked for a number, he told reporters, "Minimum hundreds, most likely thousands."

Meanwhile, the top Homeland Security official in New Orleans said bands of gunmen are roaming through the city.

Jane Fox : 8/31/2005 2:41:36 PM

Dateline CNN New Orleans mayor says Katrina killed hundreds -- maybe thousands -- of people in city, Associated Press reports.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/31/2005 2:41:27 PM

QQQQ's 30 min cycle channel has risen to a high of 38.85, gaining a nickel in the past 40 minutes. For this reason, shorts waiting at 38.79 will want to see higher levels to enter, or instead widen their stops if their risk profile permits. As we saw with the last dip that delivered less than 20 cents, the narrow sideways range today is good for scalps at best.

Jeff Bailey : 8/31/2005 2:38:38 PM

Bearish swing trade lower stop alert ... for Dave & Busters (DAB) $14.23 -1.04% ... to $14.40. Here's intra-day chart from past three sessions. Link

Linda Piazza : 8/31/2005 2:37:50 PM

Advdec line target and next strong resistance has now risen to 2470-2500. Advdec line at 2112 as I type.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/31/2005 2:31:58 PM

Headlines:

561 GULF OIL, NATGAS RIGS AND PLATFORMS UNMANNED: MMS

91.5% OF DAILY GULF OIL OUTPUT STILL SHUT IN: MMS

83.5% OF DAILY GULF NATGAS OUTPUT STILL SHUT IN: MMS

Jonathan Levinson : 8/31/2005 2:25:43 PM

Volume breadth is +1.91:1 for the NYSE, +1.73:1 for the Nasdaq with the TRIN and TRINQ holding upper-neutral territory, 1.09 and .99 respectively.

Linda Piazza : 8/31/2005 2:21:17 PM

At 11:33, I said it could be hours or minutes before we knew whether a bearish play was the right idea. Turns out, we're getting the "hours" version.

Jeff Bailey : 8/31/2005 2:16:15 PM

02:00 Internals found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 8/31/2005 2:12:34 PM

For fans of Eric Sprott, here's his latest from Aug. 22, a good discussion of peak oil: Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/31/2005 2:05:21 PM

02:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 8/31/2005 2:05:05 PM

Looks like a short cycle downphase starting early. So far today, there hasn't been a single touch of the 30 or 60 min keltner channel bands, either to the upside or downside.

Linda Piazza : 8/31/2005 2:01:50 PM

My signs of a potential topping-out process continue, but the OEX is now inching between those 20-minute 100- and 130-ema's, also testing the previous HOD. It's also testing a descending trendline off the 8/22 high. Bears want this resistance to hold, and especially that of the 200-ema up just above 563. Despite what I see currently, the possibility of a breakout exists, and if your account-appropriate stops are hit, take them. I thought there could be a retest of these averages and thought there could be a pop in the advdec line, although I wasn't sure that would happen, and so I'm not yet alarmed by what I see here. I feel comfortable staying in the trade myself, but I've got a string of successful trades behind this one and can risk it. If you can't and your stop is hit, get out.

Jeff Bailey : 8/31/2005 2:01:20 PM

Sell Program Premium .... DIA $104.23, SPX 1,211.09, QQQQ $38.68

Tab Gilles : 8/31/2005 2:00:20 PM

iShares Lehman 20+ Year Treas Bond (TLT) Daily chart... Link Weekly chart... Link

Jonathan Levinson : 8/31/2005 2:00:21 PM

QQQQ pulls back from 38.76, 3 cents below our short trigger, but first support held at 38.70. Link

Linda Piazza : 8/31/2005 1:57:09 PM

Advdec line at 2146. Resistance and next target near and slightly above (on different time charts) 2450 currently.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/31/2005 1:56:26 PM

Looking to short QQQQ on a print at 38.79, stop 38.85, just below R1 and the combined 30 and 60 min channel tops.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/31/2005 1:51:03 PM

Headlines:

CHERTOFF: FEMA MOVING SUPPLIES INTO KATRINA-HIT AREAS

EPA: SUSPENDING FUEL VOLATILITY STANDARDS THRU SEPT. 15

Jonathan Levinson : 8/31/2005 1:50:37 PM

Headlines:

SANTOMERO: PREMATURE TO SAY HOW FED WILL RESPOND TO KATRINA

SANTOMERO SEES 2006 GROWTH IN RANGE OF 3.5% TO 4%

SANTOMERO: BIGGEST RISK TO 2006 OUTLOOK DRAG OF OIL PRICES

Jonathan Levinson : 8/31/2005 1:43:40 PM

Session low for natgas, -.275 at 11.385, crude oil down 1.45 at 68.35.

Linda Piazza : 8/31/2005 1:43:34 PM

This retest of the OEX's 20-minute 100/130-ema's was not unexpected and I've been warning of the possibility all morning, along with the possibility of a test of the daily 200-ema at 563.01. So far, the signals I watch are still saying that a topping-out process may be going on, but as I've warned all day, they don't preclude a breakout. Adhere to your account-appropriate stops. Possibility of a continued move higher in the advdec line, up to about 2400 or slightly above, but the signs of topping-out so far tentatively continue.

Tab Gilles : 8/31/2005 1:43:15 PM

Murphy Oil (MUR) Link Link Link Link

Jonathan Levinson : 8/31/2005 1:36:49 PM

Crude oil -1.4 at a session low of 68.40.

Linda Piazza : 8/31/2005 1:28:07 PM

For any of our readers who would like more information about what's going on in Louisiana due to Hurricane Katrina from a regional station, you can access WWLTV's site. They have live video as well as a special forum for each parish (county for those not used to Louisiana's government) and for those searching for information on a loved one.

Linda Piazza : 8/31/2005 1:23:53 PM

Continuing signs of a topping out process in the markets (short-term, I'm not talking intermediate- or long-term) at least by the measures that I watch. The possibility of a breakout exists and certainly there's the possibility that the advdec line could now move up toward 2400 as the OEX moves into a retest of the 20-minute 100/130-ema's at 560.90 and 561.67, respectively, or even the daily 200-ema near 563. However, since tentative confirmation of the topping-out process continues, those who didn't enter a put position earlier as the OEX tested these averages and wished they had could consider doing it on tests of the 20-minute 100-ema, setting stops an account-appropriate level above those averages or above the daily 200-ema, depending on preference.

Jeff Bailey : 8/31/2005 1:17:11 PM

01:00 Internals found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 8/31/2005 1:15:41 PM

Possibility of a move higher in the advdec line up to 2400 remains, with that possibibly carrying the OEX into a retest of those averages or possibly even the daily 200-ema if the advdec line pops that high. Still some signs of a topping-out process going on, but that won't help if your stops are breached. Pay attention to those stops.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/31/2005 1:14:32 PM

Volume breadth +1.76 on the NYSE, +1.4:1 on the Nasdaq.

Jeff Bailey : 8/31/2005 1:14:53 PM

Matrix Services (MTRX) $7.51 +21.39% ... sudden surge in volume after pullback test of 38.2% dynamic.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/31/2005 1:13:10 PM

Natural gas is printing a session low here, just ticking negative at 11.63, -.03, with crude oil up to a .30 loss at 69.50.

Jeff Bailey : 8/31/2005 1:13:09 PM

General Cable (BGC) $15.40 +2.66% ... edges above overlapping $15.37 resistance.

Linda Piazza : 8/31/2005 1:11:11 PM

The possibility of an OEX bounce up to retest the 20-minute 100/130-ema's at 560.91 and 561.69 still exists. Bears would rather that the OEX continue to produce 15-minute closes below the Keltner lines currently at 559.41-559.46, however. The OEX is pushing above those lines as I type, but there are still several minutes in this 15-minute period and the 15-minute candles have been leaving long upper shadows. OEX at 559.88 as I type.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/31/2005 1:04:35 PM

In case it wasn't obvious from the directionless price action today, the 30 min cycle is still opposed to the 60 min- the former points down, the latter points up. The short cycle downphase is growing bottomy, but even that is ambiguous as a result of the sideways action this morning. I'm tempted to try a long from just above S1 with a tight stop just beneath it, to try and catch a short cycle bounce from here. Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/31/2005 1:03:47 PM

01:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 8/31/2005 12:55:03 PM

Here's the bounce I've been expecting. Watch the 20-minute 100/130-ema's at 560.92 and 561.69, if the OEX should rise that far.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/31/2005 12:51:30 PM

Linda, for whatever it's worth, my own view is that the Fed is merely engaged in damage control. That whopping 7.75B overnight repo against no expirations this morning suggests that they're taking the current setup more seriously than the sunny soundbytes they've been feeding us this morning.

Jeff Bailey : 8/31/2005 12:51:15 PM

Filled on three (3) of the QXWBU at $1.45. MTRX $7.37 here.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/31/2005 12:50:01 PM

Headline:

SEPT GASOLINE FUTURES HIT NEW RECORD AT $2.84 A GALLON

Jonathan Levinson : 8/31/2005 12:49:46 PM

Ten year notes are holding just off their session highs of 113 1/16, with TNX down 7 bps at 4.02%. The 13-week bill rate is down 2.7 bps to 3.45%.

Linda Piazza : 8/31/2005 12:49:33 PM

I just don't understand the Fed's take that having one of the world's busiest ports damaged so severely by Katrina, not to mention the impact on crude production, might have on our economy, Jonathan. I heard some speculation this morning that infrastructure might be rebuilt more quickly than some expect this morning, though, so perhaps that's what's behind their statements.

Jeff Bailey : 8/31/2005 12:49:59 PM

Sitting a bid at $1.45 on the QXWBU ... stock easing back at $7.39. Day's range ... $6.17-$7.74.

Linda Piazza : 8/31/2005 12:46:49 PM

Not much of a bounce yet. It remains possible, so a retest of the OEX's 20-minute 100/130-ema's at 560.94 and 561.72 isn't yet ruled out. So far, all is working okay for those who entered a bearish position on a test of those averages, however, although that possibility of a retest remains.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/31/2005 12:46:26 PM

Headlines:

FED'S SANTOMERO: KATRINA WILL SLOW NOT STOP ECONOMIC GROWTH

SANTOMERO SEES OIL PRICE UPTICK, SHOULD BE TRANSITORY

SANTOMERO: MEASURED PACE OF HIKES STILL APPROPRIATE

SANTOMERO STILL SEES GDP GROWTH AT 3.5%-4% THIS YEAR

SANTOMERO: GROWTH STRONG ENOUGH TO WITHSTAND RISKS

SANTOMERO SEES JOB GROWTH OF 150,000 TO 200,000 PER MONTH

Jonathan Levinson : 8/31/2005 12:45:01 PM

Headlines:

[DNR] DENBURY: AS MUCH AS 90% OF OIL PRODUCTION IS SHUT IN

[DNR] DENBURY: AS MUCH AS 50% OF NATGAS PRODUCTION IS SHUT IN

DNR] DENBURY: PROPERTY DAMAGE FROM KATRINA APPEARS TO BE MINOR

DNR is up 1.79 to 46.08 here.

Jeff Bailey : 8/31/2005 12:37:44 PM

Bullish swing trade call option alert for three (3) of the Matrix Service Co. Feb 06 $7.50 Calls (QXW-BU) at the offer of $1.70. No stop, target $12.50 for the stock.

Linda Piazza : 8/31/2005 12:33:41 PM

Nearest OEX Keltner resistance at 559.50 on 15-minute closes, with next resistance above that at about 560.75 currently. Nearest Keltner support at 558.28. Vulnerability to 556.43 continues, although 558.27 could provide a bounce. Actually, the current advdec level is providing a steadying right here, as I warned it might do earlier. Possibility of a retest of the 20-minute 100/130-ema's at 560.94 and 561.73 remains if the advdec line bounces.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/31/2005 12:31:42 PM

GE to a new session low at 32.98, -.77%. QQQQ holding above the previous 39.47 low, no deviation from today's sideways drift. Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/31/2005 12:32:26 PM

Matrix Service Co. (MTRX) $7.49 +21.39% Link ... industrial construction, and repair and maintenance services provider to the petroleum, petrochemical, power, bulk storage terminal, pipeline, and industrials gas industries ... surging.

Keene Little : 8/31/2005 12:29:32 PM

I didn't show it on that daily OIX chart but also price is back up giving the broken uptrend line from May a retest here so a kiss goodbye could be in progress.

Keene Little : 8/31/2005 12:26:45 PM

For those of you playing the oil stocks, today could be a good time to take additional profits on longs and consider shorting the weaker stocks in this sector. We could see the oil index head higher but right here is a natural place for it to fail. This is the same chart I show during my weekly Wraps and the bounce has taken price back up to the top of its up-channel and in so doing has rallied in two equal legs up (at 544.29) so Fibs and the trend line show this to be a good place to sell this index, stop at a new high (above 551.35). Link

Jonathan Levinson : 8/31/2005 12:26:08 PM

SOX testing lower pennant support here: Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/31/2005 12:20:57 PM

12:00 Internals found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 8/31/2005 12:20:02 PM

Bounce potential coming up as the advdec line drops toward 850-900. Advdec line now at 1082. Could get a retest of the OEX's 20-minute 100/130-ema's if there is a bounce. Watching now. (Note: I corrected the spelling of "drops" and the time stamp changed.)

Linda Piazza : 8/31/2005 12:11:31 PM

That confirmation I wanted to see today is beginning to look firmer, but still not quite what I want to see. For those who tried a bearish play as the OEX tested resistance (see my 11:33 post), the good news is that the OEX has turned lower from those averages, at least tentatively. Bears would like to see 15-minute closes beneath the Keltner line currently at 559.55, with the OEX at 559.79 as I type. Bears need to have profit-protecting plans in place for a test of 556.38, if that should be tested, but should recognize the possibility of support at 558.34, too. There's also that pesky possible inverse H&S, and bears want the OEX below the 558-ish right shoulder level. The play is still working fine, but you need to know the risks.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/31/2005 12:05:49 PM

Volume breadth currently positive, +1.8:1 for the NYSE and +1.35:1 for the Nasdaq. TRIN and TRINQ are at the high end of neutral at 1.08 and .91 respectively.

Jeff Bailey : 8/31/2005 12:06:31 PM

December Fed Fund futures (ff05z) 96.03 +0.05% ... just less that 90% chance of two more 25 basis point hikes by year end.

Jeff Bailey : 8/31/2005 12:04:21 PM

12:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 8/31/2005 11:50:34 AM

Headlines:

[$XNG] AMEX NATURAL GAS INDEX AT RECORD 393.10 POINTS

[$OSX] PHILADELPHIA OIL SERVICE INDEX AT RECORD 171.29 POINTS

[$XOI] AMEX OIL INDEX AT RECORD 1,011.42 POINTS

Jonathan Levinson : 8/31/2005 11:48:11 AM

Crude oil is down .475 to 69.325, while natgas is up .32 at 11.98, back below 12 and 32 cents off its intraday high of 12.30. QQQQ has just failed below 38.70, but the short cycle is still rising. Link

Linda Piazza : 8/31/2005 11:46:23 AM

OEX still testing 20-minute 100/130-ema's at 561.05 and 561.85, respectively. These stopped the OEX on 20-minute closes on 8/24 and again on 8/29, so they're good benchmarks to watch, as is the 200-ema, of course. Lots of other nearby resistance, too. Tentative confirmation of a topping out process continues, but it's still not confirmed and could still be reversed. Possibility of more climb in the advdec line continues.

Jeff Bailey : 8/31/2005 11:39:08 AM

10 Most Active ... SPY $121.47 +0.34%, QQQQ $38.66 +0.10% (neckline of reverse h/s), SUNW $3.80 +2.14%, JDSU $1.56 +1.29%, MSFT $27.15 -0.11%, CSCO $17.54 +0.17%, INTC $25.65 +0.27%, CPST $4.84 -5.83%, MOT $21.90 -0.09%, SMH $36.70 +0.13%

Linda Piazza : 8/31/2005 11:33:55 AM

Those who want to base an OEX bearish play on the possibility--not yet confirmed, I warn--that the short-term bounce could be topping out now have nearby resistance upon which to base their stops. That resistance is in the form of the important 20-minute 100/130-ema's at 561.07 and 561.87, and the converging daily 10-sma and 200-ema's, just above 563. Stops could be set an account appropriate level above those. Note that the 38.2% retracement of the entire bear-market decline at 561.23 is also being tested currently. I am seeing tentative confirmation of a topping-out process, but it's not confirmed yet and the advec line could still move up to 2200-2300 while the OEX continues testing that resistance and perhaps rising a bit higher. There could also be a breakout, of course, so stops do need to be adhered to, absolutely. I've been holding off assuming that the bounce was over, waiting for confirmation, but this point at least offers sound stop-setting levels for those who want to enter on hopes of a rollover. This was the level I wanted to see tested. I also wanted firmer confirmation that this was the right level, but it's tentatively there. Could be several hours or a few minutes until we see if a bearish entry was a good idea, I warn.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/31/2005 11:27:59 AM

QQQQ has surged back to its early morning highs. 30 and 60 min channel resistance surround R1 at 38.80-.83, and I expect the short cycle upphase to be topping at those levels. I will look to enter a QQQQ short in that area.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/31/2005 11:26:46 AM

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The Bush administration will loan oil from the country's Strategic Petroleum Reserve to at least one U.S. refiner suffering shortages from Hurricane Katrina, the Energy Department said Wednesday.

More than 95 percent of crude oil output from the Gulf of Mexico was shut in as a result of Katrina. The Gulf accounts for about a quarter of U.S. oil production, and Gulf Coast refiners rely on the crude as feedstock.

But analysts said the loss of refineries as a result of Katrina was actually a bigger concern than the cuts in crude output, given that there was virtually no spare refining capacity in the market before the storm.

Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/31/2005 11:25:28 AM

Bearish swing trade lower stop alert ... for Dave & Busters (DAB) $14.37 -0.06% ... to $14.57.

Linda Piazza : 8/31/2005 11:24:26 AM

OEX now testing those important 20-minute 100/130-ema's at 561.07 and 561.87, respectively. Converging daily 10-sma and 200-ema's are up near 563. I am beginning to see the bearish divergence I wanted to see on the advdec line. Not confirmed yet, though, as RSI could still turn higher to match the higher high on the advdec line. Still a possibility of an advdec climb toward 2200-2300, though. Waiting for that confirmation.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/31/2005 11:15:52 AM

Stuck on a call- back in a minute.

Jeff Bailey : 8/31/2005 11:15:36 AM

Current OPEN MM Profiles found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/31/2005 11:09:03 AM

11:00 Internals found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 8/31/2005 11:08:33 AM

Advdec line still rising, still with tentative signs that confirmation may soon be given of a topping out of the current movement. Still tentative and I'm waiting for that confirmation, as I said earlier, because there's always a chance that a breakout could surprise me. OEX is rising toward the 20-minute 100/130-ema's, at 561.07 and 561.88, respectively, with important daily averages just above that at just above 563. Still watching, trying to be patient.

Linda Piazza : 8/31/2005 11:06:52 AM

Still is tentative signs of an imminent topping out, but they remain tentative still.

Linda Piazza : 8/31/2005 11:03:20 AM

The TRAN did bounce after the inventories number, right up to the 200-sma, as I suspected it might, but it's falling back fromm that test. No new LOD yet, though.

Jeff Bailey : 8/31/2005 11:01:51 AM

11:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 8/31/2005 10:59:28 AM

It's really howling outside here in Montreal. I can't imagine what it must have been like in NO.

Linda Piazza : 8/31/2005 10:58:36 AM

OEX's important 20-minute 100/130-ema's are now at 561.05 and 561.86, respectively. These have been stopping advances (on 15-minute closes) since 8/22, when the OEX fell through them. Converging daily 10-sma and 200-ema are just above 563.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/31/2005 10:56:51 AM

Headlines:

[SO] MISSISSIPPI POWER: OUTAGES MAY LAST 4 WEEKS IN SOME AREAS

[SO] MISSISSIPPI POWER SAYS MUCH OF POWER GRID NEEDS REPAIRS

Linda Piazza : 8/31/2005 10:56:03 AM

OEX facing Keltner resistance at 558.98-559.34, with the OEX at 559.47 as I type, but with many minutes to go before a 15-minute close. Next resistance at 560.76-560.84 on the 15-minute chart. Getting closer to giving a signal for a bearish entry, but not quite there yet. Hope it gives a clear signal, but may not.

Jeff Bailey : 8/31/2005 10:56:00 AM

General Cable (BGC) $15.20 +1.33% Link ... Strong move above key short-term resistance. Looking for further strength above overlapping $15.37/38.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/31/2005 10:49:20 AM

QQQQ is chopping net sideways as the 30 min cycle downphase tries to get going against the 60 min cycle which continues to take the first steps of its upphase. This remains trendless intraday chop. If the bulls can't get more traction to the upside, then the net sideways chop for the past 5 days will begin to look like a bear flag of sorts within the August decline.

Linda Piazza : 8/31/2005 10:49:53 AM

Beginning to get tentative confirmation that the short-term move "higher," although not higher really in the OEX, might be topping out, but these tentative signs can still be reversed. It's just tentative as yet, and the OEX could still rise up toward 561-562. Those who want to enter a bearish play on hopes of a rollover want to see the advdec line drop below 400 at least and stay there. The signs are just not quite there as yet, although close.

Jeff Bailey : 8/31/2005 10:46:15 AM

Weekly EIA Table Link ... Does not cover the time period of Hurricane Katrina.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/31/2005 10:36:19 AM

Crude oil -.20 to 69.60, natgas +.42 at 12.08.

Linda Piazza : 8/31/2005 10:36:11 AM

I definitely believe that the short-term move is closer to a top than to a bottom. I'm not making any guesses about what's happening intermediate or long-term here, but just talking about this morning's move. Waiting for a definitive signal, which for me will come from the advdec line's movement as interpreted on a nested Keltner chart. There could be a breakout and I could get surprised, so that's why I'm waiting for that signal.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/31/2005 10:35:52 AM

Ten year note yields are down another 6.3 bps to 4.027%, with the 13-week bill rate is down a mere .7 bps to 3.47% here.

Linda Piazza : 8/31/2005 10:33:34 AM

Here's the attempt to bounce. I don't expect the OEX to move much above 562, if it gets there at all, but I could be wrong, and if it gets much above 563, then, bears, I'd stand aside and watch, as it's much more bullish than I expected.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/31/2005 10:33:38 AM

Headlines:

U.S. UNLEADED GAS STKS DOWN 500,000 BRLS: ENERGY DEPT

U.S. CRUDE STKS DOWN 1.5 MLN BRLS LAST WK: ENERGY DEPT

U.S. DISTILLATE STKS UP 2.7 MLN BRLS: ENERGY DEPT

Jeff Bailey : 8/31/2005 10:31:36 AM

Sell Program Premium ... DIA $103.77, SPX 1,206.45, QQQQ $38.56

Linda Piazza : 8/31/2005 10:30:19 AM

OEX Keltner resistance extends from 558.85-560.90. It looks stronger than nearby support, but not so strong that it precludes a bit more of a bounce up to retest it. Some other signs are ambiguous, though, suggesting a possible continued attempt at a bounce, but not promising it.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/31/2005 10:30:17 AM

From the EIA:

U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) decreased by 1.5 million barrels from the previous week. At 321.4 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are well above the upper end of the average range for this time of year. Total motor gasoline inventories declined by 0.5 million barrels last week, putting them near the bottom end of the average range. Distillate fuel inventories increased by 2.7 million barrels last week, and are above the upper end of the average range for this time of year. Most of the increase was in high-sulfur distillate fuel (heating oil), although low-sulfur distillate fuel (diesel fuel) inventories increased as well. Total commercial petroleum inventories rose by 2.4 million barrels last week, and now stand above the upper end of the average range for this time of year.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/31/2005 10:27:50 AM

Volume breadth is down to -1.15:1 on the NYSE and -1.08:1 on the Nasdaq.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/31/2005 10:26:41 AM

Crude oil 70.15 here, +.35, and natgas is +.56 at 12.22.

Linda Piazza : 8/31/2005 10:25:03 AM

TRAN is diving today, dropping now below the important 72-ema at 3660.09 and the 200-sma at 3638.26. The TRAN sometimes continues its pre-inventories move and sometimes abruptly switches sides, but I certainly wouldn't be surprised by a rise back up to retest the 200-sma if it does attempt to bounce. I'm still watching for that confirmed signal that the bounce is over, although I of course speak loosely of a bounce since the OEX's move today can't be called a bounce. If that signal confirmation comes, though, the OEX could do worse than it's doing now.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/31/2005 10:24:13 AM

QQQQ is back to the 72 SMA after bouncing from S1 at 38.47 in yesterday's sideways congestion zone. The short cycle downphase is stalling as QQQQ breaks above 38.58: Link

Linda Piazza : 8/31/2005 10:22:55 AM

Thought I had posted this about five minutes ago, but it apparently didn't go through: Possibility now of a bounce and a final producing of the signal that the short-term rise is over--although that hasn't been much of a rise on the OEX, has it? OEX's important 20-minute 100/130-ema's are now at 561.13 and 561.95.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/31/2005 10:22:08 AM

Awaiting the 10:30 Petroleum report.

Jeff Bailey : 8/31/2005 10:20:01 AM

Buy Program Premium 3-minutes ago. I was away from my terminal. Comes at DIA $103.70, SPX 1,205.50, QQQQ $38.52

Jonathan Levinson : 8/31/2005 10:18:55 AM

More from Bernanke:

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- The economic impact of Hurricane Katrina is likely to be modest as long as damage to the energy infrastructure is temporary, said top White House economic adviser Ben Bernanke in an interview with CNBC business network on Wednesday. "I expect it's going to be absorbed easily," Bernanke said of the temporary rise in energy prices. The White House is expected to announce later Wednesday the details of a release of crude oil from the government's strategic petroleum reserve to alleviate spot shortages.

Jeff Bailey : 8/31/2005 10:13:39 AM

No flattening of the yield curve today. 5-year yield ($FVX.X) plunging another 11.4 bp to 3.849%, 10-year ($TNX.X) down 8.1 bp at 4.009% with 30-year ($TYX.X) down 5.1 bp at 4.256%.

Linda Piazza : 8/31/2005 10:13:36 AM

What is Bernanke thinking? He's sure not listening to WWL-TV's live feed or to the governor of Louisiana or to European commentators. (Jonathan's 10:12 post.)

Linda Piazza : 8/31/2005 10:12:48 AM

OEX approaching the support zone from the last few days and from the consolidation zone from earlier in the year. If any did enter a bearish position as I said things were topping out this morning but not yet giving me confidence in suggesting a bearish play, you now need to have profit-protecting plans in place. The OEX looks vulnerable to a test of 556.31 on a Keltner basis, but also shows the potential for an inverse H&S on its 15-minute chart, with it now testing the right-shoulder level.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/31/2005 10:13:45 AM

Headline:

WHITE HOUSE'S BERNANKE: KATRINA IMPACT LIKELY TO BE MODEST

Personal editorial comment: Maybe from his oak-panelled room...

Jeff Bailey : 8/31/2005 10:12:04 AM

10:00 Internals found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 8/31/2005 10:10:47 AM

Session lows across the board, QQQQ testing S1 at 38.47, back to yesterday's chop zone as the 30 min cycle upphase stalls.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/31/2005 10:09:05 AM

That's a net add of 7.75B for the day.

Linda Piazza : 8/31/2005 10:08:33 AM

There almost always is a retest of the advdec line high before there's a final turnaround, but I can't of course guarantee that will happen. Yesterday, there was no similar confirmation that the decline was over, either, although that confirmation usually does occur. I would like to see that confirmation happen before I felt confident that there's going to be a rollover. OEX resistance is beginning to firm up on the 15-minute Keltner chart, though, with the OEX now looking vulnerable to 556.37.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/31/2005 10:08:04 AM

On the phone with the NY Fed- am being told that there's a technical problem with their website. There's been an overnight repo of 7.75B, but they didn't yet know the stop out rate.

Jeff Bailey : 8/31/2005 10:07:46 AM

Sell Program Premium ... DIA $103.65, SPX 1,205.42, QQQQ $38.54

Jonathan Levinson : 8/31/2005 10:04:18 AM

The Fed is now late with its repo announcement, and I will give them a call in the next 5 minutes if the webpage is still not updated. No action today would result in no net change for the day, but would be a surprising confirmation of Greenspan's tough words over the weekend.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/31/2005 10:03:23 AM

QQQQ tests 72 SMA support here, way early for the 30 min cycle upphase if it breaks below: Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/31/2005 10:02:35 AM

10:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 8/31/2005 10:01:19 AM

Still no word from the Fed. There are no expiries today, and I'd expect them to be generous.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/31/2005 10:00:37 AM

That sub-50 reading indicates contraction for a diffusion index such as the PMI.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/31/2005 10:00:06 AM

Chicago PMI 49.2 vs. 61 exp.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/31/2005 9:59:49 AM

Still no news. Equities diving sharply.

Linda Piazza : 8/31/2005 9:58:55 AM

Unless there's a big breakout day, the short-term move may be close to topping out. Still wouldn't be surprised to see the OEX test the 20-minute 100/130-ema's at 561.23 to 562.05 as the bearish signal I'm awaiting is produced, but that might not happen. It usually does, but there's just no guarantee.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/31/2005 9:58:54 AM

Session high for 10 year notes, but the Fed repo announcement and PMI data aren't out yet. Sure wish I was on the "inside" for these preleases.

Jeff Bailey : 8/31/2005 9:53:15 AM

Goldman Sachs (GS) and American Express (AXP) saying they are buying a 10% stake in China's top lender, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China for approximately $3 billion.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/31/2005 9:53:22 AM

[0]Mictian writes "[1]Apple Computer is planning to hold [2]a major press conference next week (September 7th) in San Francisco and [3]the rumours say that it will be the [4]unveiling of a new iPod cellphone (NYT). The phone would incorporate the popular iTunes software, be built by Motorola and marketed by Cingular Wireless. The companies have declined to confirm or deny the report, which would fit Apple's past pattern of being secretive to maximise the splash on announcement day." Link

Jonathan Levinson : 8/31/2005 9:49:50 AM

Awaiting the 10AM Chicago PMI, est. 61, followed by the 10:30AM Petroleum report. The Fed's repo announcement is due shortly.

Jeff Bailey : 8/31/2005 9:49:38 AM

Sun Microsystems (SUNW) $3.80 +1.87% Link ... atop this morning's most active list after Storage Technology (STK) $36.99 (unch) Link shareholders approve $4.1 billion takeover offer of $37.00 per share.

Linda Piazza : 8/31/2005 9:49:20 AM

Again, bulls, some tentative signs that the current move could be topping out soon. They're not confirmed yet as there's usually a retest with bearish divergence to signal that it's time to switch to a bearish position. That hasn't come yet, but the advdec level has reached possible strong resistance. Bears, I would rather that there's a confirmed sign that it's time to switch to a bearish position before I suggested an entry, and would especially rather that the OEX had risen to 561.25-563, too. That might not work out, but that's what I'd like to see happen.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/31/2005 9:47:43 AM

Volume breadth strengthens to +2.08:1 and +2.26:1 for the NYSE and Nasdaq. So far, QQQQ's short cycle downphase is getting little bite. 1st goal for bears is a break below 38.57 support.

Jeff Bailey : 8/31/2005 9:43:51 AM

Tiffany & Co. (TIF) $36.80 +10.47% Link ... jumping after the luxury retailer reported quarterly earnings of $50.6 million, or $0.35 a share, up from a year-ago profit of $33.1 million, or $0.22 cents a share. The company attributed a boost of $0.05 a share in its latest earnings to a lower effective tax rate than last year.

The company said sales rose 11% in the latest three months to $526.7 million from $476.6 million in the same period a year earlier. Same-store sales rose 6% in the U.S. and 1% in Japan. On a world-wide, constant exchange rate basis, comparable sales increased 4% in the period.

The results easily surpassed Wall Street's consensus of $0.24 a share on sales of $519.6 million.

Looking ahead, Tiffany lifted its outlook for the full year 2005 to a profit of $1.55 to $1.65 a share from a previous projection for a profit of $1.45 to $1.55 a share. Wall Street's current consensus estimate is for a profit of $1.51 a share for the fiscal year, which ends in January.

Linda Piazza : 8/31/2005 9:38:24 AM

Careful, bulls. There are some signs that this morning might end the short-term move higher. Tentative as yet, so nothing I'd bet on just yet, but certainly something that would lead me to protect profits if in bullish positions. Next OEX rsistance at 561.01 on the 15-minute chart, with the top of that same old channel we've been watching for so long at 562.31. Not sure whether the OEX will get that high, but it might.

Linda Piazza : 8/31/2005 9:35:56 AM

BIX moving down, RLX moving up, and the OEX isn't moving much at all.

Jeff Bailey : 8/31/2005 9:34:01 AM

Tenet Healthcare (THC) $12.21 -3.55% ... Lower after the health service provider said Hurrican Katrina has damaged 5 of its New Orleans-area hospitals and another in Mississippi.

Linda Piazza : 8/31/2005 9:33:08 AM

When making trading decisions today, remember that crude inventories is likely to be a market-moving number.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/31/2005 9:32:56 AM

Volume breadth at the open is +1.26:1 on the NYSE and +1.32:1 on the Nasdaq.

Linda Piazza : 8/31/2005 9:32:26 AM

OEX opens near the flat-line level. Twenty-minute 100/130-ema's have been important resistance lately, with those currently at 561.24 and 562.06, so watch the OEX with respect to those averages if it should climb. Also watch the converging 10-sma and 200-ema's, now both just above 563. Bulls should have profit-protecting plans in place for a test of those levels, if they should be tested.

Jeff Bailey : 8/31/2005 9:27:13 AM

White House to Release Oil from SPR ... Energy Secretary Samuel Bodman said the Bush administration has decided to release oil from the SPR to help refiners affected by Huricane Katrina.

Mr. Bodman said Citgo Petroleum has asked for 250,000-500,000 barrels. Two other companies have also inquired about oil from the reserve.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/31/2005 9:24:57 AM

QQQQ remains in a 30 min cycle upphase that is in the process of reversing the 60 min cycle downphase. However, that 30 min cycle upphase is roughly half done, and the short cycle appears to be peaking this morning. On that basis, it's looking like more upward chop on the menu- I don't see conditions that would suggest a strong move in either direction for now. Link

Jonathan Levinson : 8/31/2005 9:03:25 AM

Headlines:

*DJ Colonial Pipeline Expects Limited Service By Weekend

*DJ Colonial Pipeline Bringing In Generators To Provide Power

Sunday night's spike high for October natural gas was 12.00. Price is currently holding 10 cents off the 12.30 high. Crude oil is down .225 at 69.575 here.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/31/2005 8:56:17 AM

I'm hearing that at least two major pipelines are offline, one of which, the Colonial Pipeline, is the delivery point for natural gas. That would account for the now 5.49% rise in natgas futures at 12.30 currently.From Forbes:

In addition to refineries and oil platforms, critical infrastructure that remained out of service included:

_ the Louisiana Offshore Oil Port, the largest oil import terminal in the United States.

_ the Colonial Pipeline, which transports refined products such as gasoline, heating oil and jet fuel from Houston to markets as far away as the Northeast.

_ the Plantation Pipe Line, which transports fuel from refineries in Mississippi and Louisiana to consuming markets as far away as northern Virginia.

_ the Capline pipeline system, which transports crude oil from the Gulf to the Midwest.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/31/2005 8:34:45 AM

Ten year notes edged up and equities edged down, but very slightly. So far, the market is greeting the data with a yawn. QQQQ is now up 6 cents at 38.68, TNX -.5 bps at 4.085%, crude oil -.125 at 69.675 and natural gas +.44 at 12.10, off a new high of 12.25. The action in natural gas has been very bullish since Sunday, and I continue to be amazed at the resilience of equities in the face of the energy rally in general, and natgas in particular.

Linda Piazza : 8/31/2005 8:36:32 AM

I mentioned yesterday morning that the OEX could be doing the same thing that it did in late June and early July, rattling around in a consolidation zone that spanned roughly from 558 on the bottom to 563.50-565 on the top, and that we couldn't consider the bullish candle from the day before all that bullish just yet. I thought it likely that we'd see a decline yesterday and we did. All day yesterday, I waited for a sign that the decline was over, but never got the confirmation that I wanted before the OEX finally did bounce in the last forty minutes or so of trading. Since that confirmation didn't come, was the bounce perhaps a short-covering one? That's a possibility. At any rate, that bounce looked, from last night's vantage point, as if it might see some follow-through this morning. The current equity reaction questions that conclusion from last night, but if there is a bounce, I'll be looking for a potential rollover, but as always, I'll want to see confirmation that a rollover is beginning and that could take several hours to develop, if it does. Keltner lines could change, but I'll be watching the OEX test of the 561.26-562.30 zone, particularly if that should occur in conjunction with an advdec line move up to -434 to -663 or, particularly, +605. If the OEX should manage to sustain levels above its 200-ema at 562.81, then I'll next be watching that 563.50-564.52 zone that includes the 100-sma. I'm not participating in a bullish play, especially since I never did get that confirmation I wanted that yesterday's decline was quite finished.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/31/2005 8:32:13 AM

GDP was 3.3% vs. 3.4% exp. The chain deflator was 2.4% vs. 2.4% exp.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/31/2005 8:31:27 AM

Headlines:

U.S. 2Q GDP REVISIONS DUE TO IMPORTS, CONSUMER SPENDING

U.S. 2Q FINAL SALES RISE 5.4%, BEST SINCE 3Q 2003

U.S. 2Q PROFITS COME FROM HIGHER PRICES, LOWER COSTS

U.S. 2Q CONSUMER SPENDING REVISED TO 3.0% FROM 3.3%

U.S. 2Q GDP REVISED TO 3.3% VS. 3.4%

U.S. 2Q GDP LOWER THAN 3.4% EXPECTED

U.S. 2Q CORE INFLATION REVISED TO 1.6% FROM 1.8%

U.S. 2Q CORPORATE PROFITS RISE 6.1%, UP 17.7% Y-O-Y

Jonathan Levinson : 8/31/2005 8:29:39 AM

It looks like Katrina's arrived in the Northeast, with rain and wind here in Montreal. My email server appears to be down. If I go offline, I'll try to get word in via the other writers.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/31/2005 8:22:50 AM

Ten year notes are still lower by 3/32, and TNX has opened +.3 bps at 4.093%.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/31/2005 8:18:30 AM

From the Mortgage Bankers Association website:

WASHINGTON, D.C. (August 31, 2005) - The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) today released its Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending August 26. The Market Composite Index - a measure of mortgage loan application volume - was 722.5, a decrease of 4.5 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from 756.2 one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 5.7 percent compared with the previous week but was up 12.7 percent compared with the same week one year earlier.

The seasonally-adjusted Purchase Index decreased by 3.6 percent to 470.6 from 488.4 the previous week whereas the Refinance Index decreased by 5.4 percent to 2187.8 from 2313.9 one week earlier. Other seasonally adjusted index activity includes the Conventional Index, which decreased 4.5 percent to 1088.6 from 1139.7 the previous week, and the Government Index, which decreased 3.9 percent to 111.6 from 116.1 the previous week.

Jonathan Levinson : 8/31/2005 7:44:19 AM

Equities are up, ES trading 1210.75, NQ 1573, YM 10432 and QQQQ +.09 at 38.71. Gold is up 1.40 to 433.80, silver -.011 to 6.724, ten year notes -3/32 to 112 23/64, crude oil is +.10 to 69.90 and natural gas is up 30 cents to 11.96.

We await the 8:30 release of Q2 GDP, est. 3.4%, and at 10AM, the Chicago PMI, est. 61.

Linda Piazza : 8/31/2005 7:04:09 AM

Apple investors should read my 7:00 post for information that could impact Apple.

Linda Piazza : 8/31/2005 7:00:08 AM

Good morning. The Nikkei fell Wednesday, but most other Asian markets climbed. European markets rise despite some disappointing economic data. As of 6:53 EST, gold was higher by $1.00, and crude, higher by $0.48, to $70.29. Our futures were modestly lower at that time, near the flat-line levels. More detail about Asian and European markets follows in succeeding paragraphs.

The Nikkei has been alternating gap-higher days with gap-lower ones. Last night, it was time for the gap-lower version. After that gap lower, the Nikkei coiled in an ever-tighter range. It closed down 39.54 points or 0.32%, at 12,413.60. That gap lower came at least in part due to higher crude prices, despite a think-tank opinion issued yesterday that the country's GDP would decline only 0.1% if crude prices stabilized at $70.00/barrel. However, there were other economic figures to mull. August's Manufacturing PMI declined to 53.8, down from July's 54.1. The breakdown showed export orders and new orders falling, with output rising. A little later, July's preliminary industrial production was released, showing a much-worse-than-expected 1.1% decline over June's number. However, included in the preliminary number was a forecast for the next two months, and industrial production was forecast to rise for both August and September, with the production trend still forecast to be flat. Shipments fell and inventories rose, with that combination likely to reduce production in the near future.

Some big-cap tech stocks such as Advantest and Kyocera were early decliners. Chip maker Elpida also declined due to news that NEC and Hitachi would lower their positions in the company's stock by the end of this month. Insurers dropped. Crude-related issues were early gainers. In stock-specific news, retailer Aeon raised its full-year profit forecast and gained in early trading.

Most other Asian markets rose. The Taiwan Weighted gained 0.02%, and South Korea's Kospi climbed 1.00%. Some exporters such as Hynix Semiconductor and Hyundai offset losses in energy-sensitive issues. Singapore's Straits Times rose 0.31%, with Creative Technology Ltd. being a big gainer after being awarded a U.S. patent for a user interface used in its own mp3 players and in iPod. The company could now ask Apple and other competitors using the technology to pay licensing fees. Hong Kong's Hang Seng declined 0.13%, with CNOOC's earnings results disappointing. China's Shanghai Composite climbed 1.43%.

European markets trade higher despite disappointing economic news in some numbers, helped at least in part by its oil majors. One economic number that didn't disappoint was France's unemployment rate, falling to 9.9% in July from June's 10.1%. Expectations had been that the number would remain above 10%. In Germany, July's retail sales proved disappointing. Spending fell 0.7% month over month, continuing from June's 0.6% decline. Economists had hoped for a 0.4% rise. Yearly, sales fell 3% in this preliminary figure. The eurozone's GDP for the second quarter was expected to be unchanged from the preliminary figure at 0.3% quarter over quarter, and that's exactly what it was reported to be. The yearly rate inched lower to 1.1% year over year. The first quarter's number was revised lower to 0.4% quarter over quarter and 1.3% year over year, however. Private consumption still proved troublesome, but investment spending and inventories both climbed, with an overall effect of boosting domestic demand. The forecast for the third and fourth quarters were left unchanged. In the U.K., August's GFK consumer confidence disappointed, dropping to -4 against July's -1. The index had been expected to drop but not as much as it did. Underneath the headline numbers, personal finances were unchanged, but components related to the general economic situation and climate for major purchases fell.

Stock-specific news included earnings by French drug manufacturer Sanofi-Aventis, and Spanish-French cigarette maker Altadis, with Sanofi-Aventis dropping afterwards and Altadis gaining. Sanofi-Aventis also revealed trial results for its drug for depression, with Phase III European studies showing improvement over a placebo but Phase III North American studies not showing that same improvement. Euronext also reported earnings, rising afterwards. France Telecom asked that its shares be suspended from trading, pending news, and some speculate that it plans to sell shares to raise money to buy Spanish mobile operator Amena.

As of 6:50 EST, the FTSE 100 was higher by 37.00 points or 0.70%, at 5,292.80. The CAC 40 was higher by 13.71 points or 0.31%, at 4,370.37. The DAX was higher by 11.73 points or 0.24%, at 4,803.45.

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