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Tab Gilles : 9/14/2005 12:21:37 AM

Murphy Oil (MUR) Is now $0.52 away from my $50 entry point. Link Link

Citrix Systems (CTXS) Link Link

Materials Select Sector SPDR (XLB) Link Top 10 holdings... Link

Jeff Bailey : 9/13/2005 11:00:26 PM

Program Trading Levels for Wednesday ... HL Camp & Company has their computers set for program buying at $+7.75 and set for program selling at $+5.61.

OI Technical Staff : 9/13/2005 9:59:59 PM

The Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

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Jeff Bailey : 9/13/2005 5:46:41 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles found at this Link ... Today's Activity ... Swing trade bullish call for three (3) of the Dell Computer DELL Nov. $35 Calls (DLQ-KG) at the offer of $1.50, no stop on these options, targeting $40.00 on the underlying shares.

Jeff Bailey : 9/13/2005 5:34:48 PM

Pivot Matrix for tomorrow at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 9/13/2005 4:56:08 PM

Closing U.S. Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 9/13/2005 4:52:10 PM

Closing Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 9/13/2005 4:11:01 PM

Buy program premium ... DIA $106.13, SPY $123.63

Linda Piazza : 9/13/2005 4:04:28 PM

The OEX did end the day right on the neckline for the H&S on its 15-minute chart, as I suspected it might.

Linda Piazza : 9/13/2005 3:57:42 PM

Tomorrow's OEX open will be important--above that neckline or below it? So far, we've gotten a breakdown out of the bear flag in which the OEX rose to test broken support from the channel that rose up off the spring low. Then, we also got a retest this afternoon of the bear flag and a pullback from that. Today's action finished the head and started forming a right shoulder for a H&S on the 15-minute chart. The OEX looks as if it will end the day near the neckline for that H&S, but is the right-shoulder building exercise completed? I still seems possible that the OEX could rise again, filling out that right shoulder a bit more. That can't be precluded, but an open below today's low would look as if the formation had been confirmed, and unless the OEX soon zipped back above that neckline, its 563.60-ish downside target would be established. If the OEX instead opens at or near that neckline and then begins climbing, then the 571-572.50-ish zone should be watched again for rollover potential.

Jeff Bailey : 9/13/2005 3:56:51 PM

Imperial Oil (AMEX:IMO) $105.12 -2.24% Link ... DJ - reduced its purchase price for benchmark 40-degree gravity light crude oil at Edmonton by C$5 a cubic meter to C$493 a cubic meter, effective Tuesday.

In terms of barrels, the company is now offering C$78.39 a barrel, down from C$79.19. The new purchase price indicates an export price delivered to Chicago of about US$67.79 a barrel after considering transportation and import charges and foreign exchange rates.

Actual export prices are confidential but are believed to be closely related to the posted levels.

Linda Piazza : 9/13/2005 3:53:27 PM

The OEX is testing Keltner support, too, at 569.61 on 15-minute closes.

Jeff Bailey : 9/13/2005 3:52:22 PM

VIX.X 12.41 +6.52% ... session highs

Linda Piazza : 9/13/2005 3:49:26 PM

The OEX is sinking closer to the day's low and to the neckline of the H&S on the 15-minute chart. It likely could end the day at or near that neckline. Do you trust the neckline violation near the close, if it happens then? If you're in a bearish play and have been since about 572-572.50, then perhaps you consider soon taking at least partial profit. If you're in from nearer Friday's high, you have a little more of a cushion.

There are special considerations for those in September options, though, as you have to weigh the risk of holding overnight while options premiums decrease.

Jeff Bailey : 9/13/2005 3:48:22 PM

Airline Index (XAL.X) 42.52 -7.58% Link ... lows for 2005 here. Sets up for testo of 52-week lows (October 2004) of 40.00.

Northwest Airlines (NWAC) $1.29 -61.02% Link ... done.

Jeff Bailey : 9/13/2005 3:35:05 PM

Buy Program Premium .... DIA $106.32, SPX 1,234.21, QQQQ $39.74

Linda Piazza : 9/13/2005 3:31:57 PM

Keltner picture on the OEX: The OEX has support from 569.84-570.09, and it looks relatively firm. So does resistance beginning at 571.02 and extending up to 572.01, however. Still could be some rattling around.

Linda Piazza : 9/13/2005 3:28:48 PM

The neckline for the potential H&S on the OEX is now at about 469.46, although I'd certainly want to see a new LOD before I believed that neckline had been violated. The OEX is coming down toward that neckline about as fast as it rose to form the right shoulder, but I'm still not sure that whole right-shoulder forming process is finished. Could be a bounce from the neckline, so bears need that profit-protecting plan for a neckline test.

Linda Piazza : 9/13/2005 3:23:47 PM

Yep, I wish I'd suggested that 572-572.50-ish bearish entry for all bears. See my 2:44:18 post for my suggestions for those who like to hit an entry at a pre-selected potential resistance level (or support, if the entry is bullish), but hesitation about suggesting it for others. Now, those who entered need to see a move down past the LOD, and quickly. There's a possibility of an equal low, so profit-protecting plans need to be in place for a test of the previous LOD. Remember that the OEX still looks as if it's chopping around within the right-shoulder level for a potential H&S on its 15-minute chart, so there could still be some retests of the 15-minute 100/130-ema's at 571.59 and 571.11, respectively.

Jeff Bailey : 9/13/2005 3:27:01 PM

DIA Oct. $107 puts option observation for volume .... OK ... I see 1,470 contracts traded from 02:40-02:45 at price from $1.65-$1.70.

$107 +/- $1.70 gives us a range of $105.30-$108.70.

VIX.X action during that time stamp would have VIX trading 11.97, but kicking higher after that. VIX.X currently 12.29.

analysis: Looks like a put buyer.

DIA was trading $106.57-$106.64 during noted time interval

Linda Piazza : 9/13/2005 3:20:55 PM

The SOX didn't close the last 15-minute period below the Keltner line currently at 483.03, although it did pierce it intraday. That support, then, left open the possibility that the SOX could rise again to retest 484.36-ish next Keltner resistance, although it's sinking a little as I type.

Linda Piazza : 9/13/2005 3:18:20 PM

The SOX's climb to a day's high occurred as the SOX shot up and invalidated a H&S formation that's similar to the OEX's on its 15-minute chart, so that warns of what can happen, too, when a H&S is invalidated. Of course, the SOX has a bit of a history of overrunning targets, too.

Jeff Bailey : 9/13/2005 3:19:06 PM

DIA $106.31 -0.46% ... I didn't get an option chain (sorted by most active posted), but I had hoped to earlier today after posting open interest. However, I did sort by volume after posting the sorted by Sep. open interest, the DIA Oct. $107 puts (DIA-VC) were 6th-most active. They're now #1 at 8,842 : 5,822.

Linda Piazza : 9/13/2005 3:15:46 PM

The potential for some more choppy behavior near the right-shoulder level of 572-572.60 still exists on the OEX unfortunately. This should be a topping out area, although the behavior lately of some of those mo-mo indices scares me into remembering that not all H&S's confirm. (Of course, I really do remember that anyway, but remember it with more . . . conviction now.)

Jeff Bailey : 9/13/2005 3:13:06 PM

QQQQ $39.68 -0.12% ... if buyers are going to mount a "charge" to the close, this would be the intra-day level to do it from after a session high of $39.91 traded WEEKLY R1.

Linda Piazza : 9/13/2005 3:11:07 PM

SOX moving down below the breakout level again, but it hasn't yet closed the 15-minute period below that level, at 484.37 on 15-minute closes. The SOX is at 483.35 as I type. Bears would like to see it close the current 15-minute period below 483.04.

Linda Piazza : 9/13/2005 3:09:16 PM

I may wish that I'd suggested that all bears wanting a new entry pick that entry near 572.50, instead of just saying that it would be a good entry for those who like to choose a certain preset likely resistance area. A 15-minute close beneath the 130-ema at 571.13 and a break through the former rising trendline off the day's low, at about 570.70 would constitute a breakdown out of the bear flag formation, but that potential support at the day's low still exists and the possibility of chopping around between here and the afternoon high also still exists.

Jeff Bailey : 9/13/2005 3:08:39 PM

03:00 Internals found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 9/13/2005 3:05:55 PM

TRAN dropping. It's just above Friday's low of 3596.25, with the TRAN currently at 3597.82. Double-bottom or a breakdown out of the latest consolidation pattern? We'll soon see. The 200-ema is below at 3578.10.

Linda Piazza : 9/13/2005 3:04:22 PM

OEX 15-minute 100/130-ema's at 571.63 and 571.13, respectively. OEX at 571.49 as I type.

Jeff Bailey : 9/13/2005 3:01:47 PM

03:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 9/13/2005 3:00:51 PM

The OEX has dropped back to retest the 15-minute 100/130-ema's. As I've said several times today, I could now see several hours worth of trading with the OEX rattling around in this right-shoulder area before deciding which way to take off. I think the OEX's resistance looks strong enough to hold it back, but there are other indices zooming up, and they could carry the day (and the OEX).

Jeff Bailey : 9/13/2005 2:57:47 PM

Evacuation ordered .... visitors ordered to evacuate Hatteras Island in the Outer Banks as Tropical Storm Ophelia approaches the coast of the Carolinas.

Linda Piazza : 9/13/2005 2:51:54 PM

Just noticed that the SOX did hit the 478.20-478.84 level that Keltners had suggested it might test today, with the SOX LOD at 478.81. See my 11:58:08 post for a discussion of the SOX's vulnerability to a test of that level. Hitting that Keltner support helped prompt the SOX bounce, also a more extreme one than bears wanted to see. Bears would like to see the SOX start closing 15-minute periods back below the Keltner line currently at 484.21 now, and soundly below that line. The SOX is now at 484.25.

Jonathan Levinson : 9/13/2005 2:49:58 PM

I need to leave for an appointment and won't be back in time for the close. QQQQ is currently in a 30 min cycle upphase, the 60 min cycle turning up, and the daily cycle upphase just reaching overbought territory. So far, the weakness off the session high is only in the shortest of intraday timeframes. Link

Jeff Bailey : 9/13/2005 2:49:01 PM

Northwest Airlines (NWAC) update ... Mesaba Aviation (MAIR) $9.08 -0.32% Link , a regional feeder carrier for Northwest Airlines saying that it has delivered a notice of default to Northwest after the airline failed to make an $18.7 million payment due yesterday.

Linda Piazza : 9/13/2005 2:48:56 PM

The SOX is having difficulty so far maintaining its breakout on the 15-minute Keltner chart, so that the upside target of 486.19 on that chart remains iffy.

Jeff Bailey : 9/13/2005 2:45:48 PM

Northwest Airlines (NWAC) $1.76 -47% ... jumps to #3 most active.

Linda Piazza : 9/13/2005 2:44:17 PM

Here's what I see on the OEX's 15-minute chart: Link This is an area that I wanted to see tested for a potential new bearish entry on a rollover, but the surge higher was stronger than I wanted to see. Note that this is a potential right-shoulder level, too. Those who want to risk a bearish entry would find this a good place to do so, but I don't see evidence yet that the advdec line is ready to keel over. Could be some chop near the right-shoulder level as that advdec line keeps rising off its low, and there's danger that a rising advdec line could produce more than chop, too. Why couldn't there have been a nice corrective move up to this level and then a nice breakdown out of a bear flag? Sigh. Maybe it's because that breakdown isn't going to happen, and that's the danger for anyone automatically entering as this resistance level is tested, without clear evidence yet that a rollover looks likely.

Jonathan Levinson : 9/13/2005 2:42:22 PM

Here comes the wavelet cycle bottom, a likely place for a QQQQ bounce if it's going to occur: Link

Jeff Bailey : 9/13/2005 2:39:44 PM

Telecom Argentina (TEO) $11.20 -0.44% Link ... files for creditor protection in U.S.

Linda Piazza : 9/13/2005 2:31:57 PM

This is the area from which I wanted to see a rollover when I first mentioned this H&S on the 15-minute chart, but that last zoom higher was anything but corrective, and I don't see confirmation yet that the bounce attempt is finished.

Linda Piazza : 9/13/2005 2:28:55 PM

Here's the potential H&S on the OEX's 15-minute chart: Link That H&S is forming at the right-shoulder level of a potential H&S on the daily chart, although that one is forming within a possible congestion level, even if after a climb off the spring low, so it might not be as valid. All this right-shoulder business, though, may mean there are some continued choppy trading conditions ahead.

Jonathan Levinson : 9/13/2005 2:28:08 PM

The heavy call resistance at QQQQ 40.00 seems to have put the brakes on that surge. Because it's op-ex week, the cycles have a better chance of truncating midway through their runs. QQQQ bears need a break back below 39.70 to confirm a stall in the 30 min cycle upphase, however.

Jonathan Levinson : 9/13/2005 2:22:35 PM

Volume breadth is pretty tame, +1.58:1 on the Nasdaq and -1.56:1 on the NYSE.

Linda Piazza : 9/13/2005 2:23:50 PM

SOX at 485.33, trying to break above the top barrier of the rising regression channel on its weekly chart, a long-term channel. Remember that since this is a weekly channel, it will be the weekly close, and not an intraday move or even a daily close that will matter, but the weekly close. That upper boundary is at about 483.20-483.40, if I've drawn it correctly. Next 15-minute Keltner target is 486.13 and the daily target and next resistance is 486.56 on a daily close. This is the same Keltner target and resistance that the RUT hit yesterday.

Linda Piazza : 9/13/2005 2:19:23 PM

The last few minutes have seen a steeper climb than bears wanting a new entry (or those bears who hanging on from yesterday, perhaps) would have wanted to see. Time for those bears wanting a new entry to stand aside, as the OEX is breaking through too many barriers to the upside. Could be quickly reversed, but it's not being reversed now. Bears who took partial profits and followed the OEX lower with stops on the rest of the position need to adhere to their plan, whatever it was. This could get reversed as it could be just some stops being run, but there's no proof that will happen.

The OEX is now in the right-shoulder area for the larger H&S seen on its 15-minute chart, with the right-shoulder level at about 572.20-572.60 or so. There could be a several-hour period of choppy behavior as the OEX zig-zags its way into a potential right shoulder, flattening near the current level, before we know whether the formation is invalidated or confirmed.

Jonathan Levinson : 9/13/2005 2:18:41 PM

The short cycle and wavelet are both trending in overbought now as the NQ makes new highs. Because the 30 min cycle has turned up, with the 60 min only now joining it, it's still early to try to catch the rising knife on QQQQ. In retrospect, we should have flipped long on our QQQQ short cover earlier today, but the price never hit 30 min channel support at 39.51, missing it by 3 cents.

Jeff Bailey : 9/13/2005 2:18:16 PM

Garmin Ltd. (GRMN) $64.88 +2.56% Link ... continues to impress. Bulls long from commentary back in mid-July (didn't get the $45 entry for MM profiles) can take some profits off the table here. Look for new entries on any type of pullback to $60.

Jonathan Levinson : 9/13/2005 2:16:03 PM

GOOG has launched here, just printing a session high at 315.53 and currently +1.78% at 315.25.

Jeff Bailey : 9/13/2005 2:15:16 PM

02:00 Internals found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 9/13/2005 2:15:12 PM

GSO above 170 now, at 170.14, having topped the July high of 169.80.

Linda Piazza : 9/13/2005 2:13:29 PM

The 50% retracement of the decline off yesterday's last fifteen-minute high is at about 571.85, with the OEX having pushed above that on the current 15-minute period, but not yet having closed a 15-minute period above it. The OEX is at 571.85 as I type. The confluence of the long-term rising channel off the spring low and the flag-like shape in which the OEX had pulled back yesterday is at about 574.44, another area of potential resistance.

Jonathan Levinson : 9/13/2005 2:11:43 PM

Big volume in play here: Link

Jeff Bailey : 9/13/2005 2:10:55 PM

Buy program premium ... DIA $106.55, SPX 1,236.65, QQQQ $39.82

Linda Piazza : 9/13/2005 2:10:38 PM

Big push higher on the OEX, up to test the fifteen-minute 100/130-ema's at 571.59 and 571.07, respectively. This is where you have to be careful, those bears wanting a new entry, as I mentioned earlier. There could be a hesitation here, a slight pullback into the right shoulder for a new H&S and then another push higher to test the neckline, with that neckline at about the current 571.60-ish level. The flag's support has not yet been broken, not even on a three-minute close, and the current push stronger than bears would like.

Jonathan Levinson : 9/13/2005 2:10:22 PM

Volume breadth is +1.39:1 on the Nasdaq, -2.16:1 on the NYSE.

Jeff Bailey : 9/13/2005 2:10:19 PM

GSTI Software Index (GSO.X) alert 170.00 +0.63% Link ... second-consecutive double top buy signal and moves above summer highs. Sector Bullish % (BPSOFT) from Dorsey/Wright at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 9/13/2005 2:10:02 PM

This move has maxxed out the short cycle upphase, which will have to begin trending for any further upside. The upside keltner breach should have marked the top of the short cycle upphase. Link

Jonathan Levinson : 9/13/2005 2:07:30 PM

New session high for QQQQ at 39.75 here. If it's a reverse h&s break, then the target can be as high as the low 39.90s. Current 30 min channel resistance is at 39.79: Link

Linda Piazza : 9/13/2005 2:05:48 PM

OEX bouncing from bear flag support again.

Jeff Bailey : 9/13/2005 2:03:14 PM

02:00 Market Watch at this Link

Linda Piazza : 9/13/2005 2:03:43 PM

The ascending trendline off the OEX's day's low (the flag's support) is now at about 570.30, at about the 19% retracement of the steep decline that preceded this bounce. A decline below that, particularly if confirmed by a three-minute close beneath that line, would suggest that the flag's support is failing. Those bears wanting new entries could decide to enter there (although a higher entry would be preferable), but they need to be aware of the considerations I mentioned in my 2:00:54 post. Right now, the OEX is trying to firm up at that line and not break through it.

Jonathan Levinson : 9/13/2005 2:02:15 PM

Stepping away for 5 minutes.

Jonathan Levinson : 9/13/2005 2:01:12 PM

No reaction from equities or treasuries on the Budget news.

Linda Piazza : 9/13/2005 2:00:54 PM

Soon OEX bears wanting a new entry are going to have a tough decision to make, and it may already be upon them. The OEX has risen into a 38.2% retracement of the decline that immediately preceded this bounce and the 50% retracement is at about 571.85, just above the 15-minute 100-ema. The 130-ema is currently being tested, with that at 571.06. New bears would like to see the OEX as close to 571.85 as possible before an entry appears because there's the possibility of a bounce again at the 50-sma. If the OEX breaks down out of the current bear-flag rise from near 571.50-571.85, though, there's the possibility of only a minor dip before an attempt to rise back through that level and confirm a new potential inverse H&S. So, any bears considering an entry on a breakdown out of the current bear flag should be aware that downside might be limited to the 50-sma and that there could be only a fake-out move before a zip higher and a confirmation of a potential inverse H&S. The Keltner chart shows the OEX facing resistance at 571.26-561.86 on 15-minute closes, corroborating this other evidence, but it shows potential support building from 569.85-570.20 on 15-minute closes, too, with that support perhaps the support that would stop a decline and form a right shoulder for that inverse H&S. There are no absolute "it will do this" clues right now, but these are all possibilities.

Jonathan Levinson : 9/13/2005 2:00:38 PM

Headlines:

U.S. AUG. BUDGET DEFICIT $50 BILLION AS EXPECTED

U.S. AUG. RECEIPTS UP $17.7 BILLION OR 12.9%

U.S. AUG. OUTLAYS UP $26.5 BILLION OR 14.8%

U.S. 2005 FISCAL DEFICIT $352.6 BILLION YEAR-TO-DATE

Jeff Bailey : 9/13/2005 1:51:10 PM

Bullish swing trade call option alert ... for three (3) of the Dell Computer $35.02 +0.54% Link DELL Nov. $35 Calls (DLQ-KG) at the offer of $1.50. Target $40.

Linda Piazza : 9/13/2005 1:47:02 PM

So far, the OEX's climb still looks bear flag-ish when viewed on the five-minute chart, and the OEX now approaches at 38.2% retracement of the decline. Watch for potential resistance in the 571-572 zone.

Jonathan Levinson : 9/13/2005 1:46:39 PM

Awaiting the 2PM release of the Treasury Budget, consensus est. -47.8B with Briefing looking for a -50B figure. Prior was -41.1B.

Jonathan Levinson : 9/13/2005 1:40:49 PM

The dip just now reversing was very shallow, but could itself be the right shoulder of an inverse head and shoulders within the broader conventional h&s noted earlier. Both cannot be valid, as a breakout on one will invalidate the other. In either case, the 39.73 resistance zone is key: Link

Linda Piazza : 9/13/2005 1:39:45 PM

The GSO has moved slightly above the July high, by just a few cents so far, constituting a retest of that high.

Jeff Bailey : 9/13/2005 1:35:46 PM

SanDisk (SNDK) $42.04 +4.86% Link ... good gravy! That's a 52-weeker as it closes in on its bullish vertical count. When we closed out those puts several months ago, should have turned and gone long.

Jonathan Levinson : 9/13/2005 1:31:37 PM

Ten year notes have eased off their highs but hold the bulk of their gains, TNX -3.6 bps at 4.133% and still below the 4.14%-4.16% confluence. IRX is down 1.1 bps at 3.404%.

Linda Piazza : 9/13/2005 1:29:37 PM

The RLX has bounced back to the 72-ema, an average that's been important to the RLX over the last month. That's at 455.30, with the RLX currently at 455.29. This is a bounce up to retest that S/R. This is all still occurring while the RLX is perhaps forming a right shoulder for a potential H&S on the daily chart. No confirmation and no invalidation.

Linda Piazza : 9/13/2005 1:27:53 PM

GSO got within a couple of cents of the July high, but hasn't retreated far.

Jonathan Levinson : 9/13/2005 1:23:19 PM

Crude oil is down .25 at 63.10, off a low of 62.70, and natural gas is down .24 at 10.79, off a low of 10.685.

Jonathan Levinson : 9/13/2005 1:21:37 PM

The short cycle upphase is entering overbought territory for QQQQ with price still in the zone for a right h&s shoulder below 39.72-.73: Link

Linda Piazza : 9/13/2005 1:18:12 PM

Here's what's happened. As expected, the OEX rose from historical support and the 50-sma, now between a 19.1% and 38.2% retracement of the decline off yesterday's last 15-minute swing high. The bounce is a little springier than bears would like, but let's wait and see how it develops. I would expect a potential pullback from somewhere near the 15-minute 100/130-ema's, now at 571.63 and 571.08, respectively.

Linda Piazza : 9/13/2005 1:14:53 PM

The GSO is at its HOD, rising to retest the July high of 169.80, now only 6 cents away.

Jeff Bailey : 9/13/2005 1:13:56 PM

01:00 Internals found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 9/13/2005 1:11:08 PM

The 8B 4-week auction sold at 3.23% with a yield of 3.28%, bid to cover of 3.45. Foreign central bank pariticpation was a little light, 1.88B of the 8B total.

Jonathan Levinson : 9/13/2005 1:09:26 PM

The 8B 4-week bill auction generated a strong bid-to-cover ratio of 3.45. I'm trying to view the remaining statistics, but Acrobat seems to be freezing. More shortly.

Jeff Bailey : 9/13/2005 1:05:11 PM

01:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 9/13/2005 1:04:24 PM

I return to see that the OEX's 15-minute CCI did confirm that inverse H&S and the OEX has sprung higher without even completing the right shoulder for its inverse H&S. It's headed up toward a retest of the 15-minute 100/130-ema's at 571.65 and 561.08, respectively. Bears would prefer that the OEX continue producing 15-minute closes beneath a Keltner lines currently at 571.27 and 572.02. There's the possibility that if it climbs as high as 571.40 and then pulls back from there, it could attempt an inverse H&S from there.

Jonathan Levinson : 9/13/2005 1:00:09 PM

Volume breadth has improved to -2.6:1 on the NYSE and -1.13:1 on the Nasdaq, as QQQQ pulls back from a move to 39.67. The 30 min cycle channel has begun to tick up, with the upper band advancing to 39.71. Link

Jeff Bailey : 9/13/2005 1:02:57 PM

10 Most Active ... SEBL $10.31 +0.19% Link LU $3.10 -1.27% Link , QQQQ $39.65 -0.20% Link , ORCL $13.76 +2.00% Link , MSFT $26.54 -0.26% Link , SPY $123.79 -0.45% Link , JDSU $1.68 +3.06% Link , CSCO $18.29 -1.02% Link , INTC $24.97 -0.12% Link , NOK $16.69 +3.85% Link

Jeff Bailey : 9/13/2005 12:49:40 PM

Dow Diamonds (DIA) $106.21 -0.56% ... updated bar chart with WEEKLY/MONTHLY Pivot retracement at this Link ... We've now looked at and discussed the INDU bullish % today (futures monitor), we've looked at the DIA/DJX September Option open interest (market monitor), and now we look at probable places for institutional computers to be buying and selling.

I'd like to sell the DIA Sep. $105 puts for a premium of $0.45 or greater if the opportunity presents itself. $105 - $0.45 = $104.55 : (bull RISK)

Jonathan Levinson : 9/13/2005 12:41:33 PM

Session high for GOOG here, +.46 at 310.20.

Linda Piazza : 9/13/2005 12:41:28 PM

Stepping away for a few minutes.

Linda Piazza : 9/13/2005 12:39:15 PM

There's a little inverse H&S on the OEX's 15-minute CCI. It hasn't confirmed yet, but these CCI formations sometimes lead the OEX and other indices. Watch for an OEX push up to 570.34 or a little above that, and then a possible pullback and push back through that level, to signal that a stronger bear flag has begun forming. Note: this little inverse H&S (on CCI, and then on OEX, if it sets up) is just a small formation, and might send the OEX up into a test of a right-shoulder level for a larger possible regular H&S.

Jonathan Levinson : 9/13/2005 12:35:47 PM

The current short cycle upphase has been even weaker than this morning's earlier one, and the 30 and 60 min cycles continue lower. However, the 30 min cycle is reaching oversold territory, and the channel is flattening on the lack of lower lows for the past hour and a half. If the bulls can clear 39.69, the channel should turn up. Currently, the operative range is 39.49-39.69 for QQQQ.

Linda Piazza : 9/13/2005 12:30:31 PM

OEX still trying to steady. Current bears, you've had opportunity to take partial profit and reset stops, so just follow the OEX lower with your stops today. As I mentioned earlier, assess your willingness to weather a potential bounce into a right-shoulder formation. Current bears would really like to see the OEX continue 15-minute closes beneath 570.41-571.32 to preserve that 566.88 downside target.

Jonathan Levinson : 9/13/2005 12:24:42 PM

Volume breadth has weakened to -2.74:1 for the NYSE and -1.33:1 for the Nasdaq, the TRIN at the upper end of neutral at 1.17, TRINQ at the lower end at .58. Overall QQQQ volume is extremely light for this time of day, just 27.3M shares traded so far- this is usually what we see in the first hour to hour and a half.

Linda Piazza : 9/13/2005 12:23:56 PM

Yesterday, the GSO retested the July high, coming within a few cents of that high, and then falling back into the close. Today, the GSO is positive, but hasn't yet risen to yesterday's high. It's currently got a near doji just below yesterday's high. Tomorrow may be an important day on the GSO. So far, though, there's no real pullback from that high yet.

Linda Piazza : 9/13/2005 12:21:04 PM

So far today, each OEX bounce attempt has ended at or below the 19.1% retracement of the drop off yesterday's last five or fifteen-minute high into the then-LOD. That 19.1% retracement is now at about 570.34, just to benchmark it. I'm actually watching for a bounce up to retest the down-turning 15-minute 100/130-ema's, now at 571.72 and 571.11, respectively, but if the established trend continues today, the OEX might not rise that high.

Jane Fox : 9/13/2005 12:15:25 PM

Dateline CNN - President Bush says he takes responsibility for the federal government's failures in responding to Hurricane Katrina.

Jeff Bailey : 9/13/2005 12:11:29 PM

12:00 Internals found at this Link

Yesterday's Internals found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 9/13/2005 12:11:23 PM

I've said it earlier today, but in case I haven't made it clear, I do expect another bounce attempt on the OEX from somewhere near 569 and the current level, and it's possible that the OEX could bounce up to 572-572.60, but not "possible" enough that I would suggest anyone enter long with an options play with those spreads to negotiate. That's a rise into a possible right shoulder for a H&S, and there's other resistance below that.

Linda Piazza : 9/13/2005 12:07:08 PM

The OEX hit a minimal new LOD, but is essentially still just testing the 50-sma at 569.56. Anywhere from here to 569 should prompt a bounce attempt, I would think, or else the OEX is doing away entirely with a right-shoulder building attempt.

Jonathan Levinson : 9/13/2005 12:02:39 PM

Session low for YM here, with QQQQ-.15 at 39.58, 4 cents above the session low. A break of the low would target lower channel support in the 39.47-.50 area. Link

Jeff Bailey : 9/13/2005 12:02:17 PM

12:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 9/13/2005 11:58:08 AM

On a Keltner basis, the SOX looks vulnerable to 478.20-478.84 as long as it's continuing 15-minute closes beneath Keltner lines currently at 480.82-480.98. The SOX is currently testing that resistance.

Linda Piazza : 9/13/2005 11:55:43 AM

The OEX still can't manage a decent bear flag. Watching to see if it breaks through to a new LOD, but I really hoped that it would rise a bit more than this and give new bears an opportunity to get in on a retest of the 15-minute 100/130-ema's. Keltner resistance at 570.77-571.57 on 15-minute closes may be pressuring it, however. Current bears would certainly like that resistance to continue to hold on 15-minute closes.

Jeff Bailey : 9/13/2005 11:54:20 AM

DIA / DJX Option Montages sorted by September open interest (expiration this Friday) at this Link ... Looking to sell naked some DIA $105 puts into Friday's expiration. Would like to get something near $0.45 if possible.

Jonathan Levinson : 9/13/2005 11:50:44 AM

Very weak short cycle upphase so far, but it will remain in effect so long as QQQQ holds above the 39.56 area (current location of lower short cycle channel support line). Link

Linda Piazza : 9/13/2005 11:39:59 AM

SOX not doing much of anything, trading in a tight range over the last few days. That range is roughly rectangular, although it could be a flag-like pullback.

Jonathan Levinson : 9/13/2005 11:37:59 AM

Nasdaq volume breadth has improved to -1.07:1, one spike away from going back to positive. The short cycle indicators for QQQQ have turned up, but bulls will need to smash the day highs at 39.73 to invalidate what I'm still guessing is a h&s right shoulder on the 100-tick/3-min charts Link

Linda Piazza : 9/13/2005 11:38:18 AM

OEX attempting a rise as expected. See my 11:22 post. Bears should assess their willingness to weather a retest of the 15-minute 100/130-ema's at 571.84 and 571.17 or perhaps even up to 572-572.60, although the 19.1% retracement is at 570.55 and the first retracement this morning only got to 19.1%. I think this might be the right-shoulder building rise that I mentioned earlier and that could go to 572-572.60 or so and still preserve the potential H&S. If the rise is too precipitous or gets much beyond 572.60, then something more bullish might be going on and that H&S might be invalidated. Such a right-shoulder building exercise could take several hours, of course.

Linda Piazza : 9/13/2005 11:30:23 AM

I said yesterday that I thought the BIX might be headed down for a retest of the support for its broadening formation on the daily chart. It did break down out of its latest consolidation pattern, and now heads toward that support and August's low at 345.29, with the BIX now at 347.24. Bears want to see the broadening formation's support broken while bulls want to see a higher low.

Linda Piazza : 9/13/2005 11:28:34 AM

The RLX has fallen back below the important 72-ema, but the RLX essentially still rattles around in a possible right-shoulder zone on its daily chart. The neckline is roughly congruent with the 200-sma at 442.80, with the RLX currently at 453.34.

Linda Piazza : 9/13/2005 11:22:44 AM

There's the potential on the OEX for a H&S on the 240-minute and daily charts. There's a left shoulder and a head, with today's drop bringing the OEX down into a neckline test. That's another reason to expect a potential rise. The right shoulder level is 572-572.50, so a rise that high wouldn't undo the H&S possibility. A drop much below 569 that isn't quickly reversed would probably mean that the OEX isn't going to bother with the right shoulder, but the neckline could be anywhere from 569 to the OEX's current 570-ish level. If the OEX does rise, those of you who ventured into a bullish play need to be watchful of that 571.90-572.60-ish zone for a possible rollover, if it gets that high.

Linda Piazza : 9/13/2005 11:16:08 AM

OEX at the 50-sma right now. It dove straight down to it, so I'm not certain that even this potential support is going to stop it. (See why I didn't think a long play was a good idea pre-market, on a test of the support I'd shown?) This should be a place at which an OEX steadying and bounce attempt should be made again. The last bounce attempt got only to a 19.1% retracement of the bounce off the then-low before the OEX keeled over again. That 19.1% level is now at 570.55, with the 38.2% at 571.44 and the 50% at 571.99. The 15-minute 100/130-ema's are at 571.91 and 571.21, respectively, and now bears want them to hold as resistance on 15-minute closes.

Jeff Bailey : 9/13/2005 11:12:34 AM

11:00 Internals found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 9/13/2005 11:12:10 AM

Yes, great trade, Jonathan.

Jonathan Levinson : 9/13/2005 11:12:08 AM

Depending on how it looks, there might be a long from 30 min channel support at 39.51 if the market gives it for us- but only on a scalp/short cycle basis. Link

Jonathan Levinson : 9/13/2005 11:10:52 AM

Thanks, Marc.

Jonathan Levinson : 9/13/2005 11:10:40 AM

I'm still bearish on QQQQ, based on the 60 min and daily cycle setup, but I'm done giving back decent profits when they're on the table. I will hope for a corrective bounce on which to reload. Again, for traders with longer horizons, this should still be a good play, but I'm booking it now.

Jonathan Levinson : 9/13/2005 11:09:15 AM

QQQQ - Exit Point Alert -

Out QQQQ short from 39.84 at 39.54

Linda Piazza : 9/13/2005 11:08:53 AM

Benchmarking: the OEX's 50-sma is at 569.56. The OEX has been plowing through one support level after another, as easily as it cut through one resistance level after another on 9/06. It's so far maintaining a Keltner downside target of 566.87, but keep an eye on 571.06-571.44 on any bounces, as bears want to see continued 15-minute closes below those levels to maintain that downside target.

Jeff Bailey : 9/13/2005 11:03:44 AM

11:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 9/13/2005 11:03:47 AM

Volume breadth is down to -2.61:1 for the NYSE, just -1.19:1 for the Nasdaq. The TRINQ is low at .54, also showing strong buying pressure. Direction remains up for grabs, but so far the QQQQ short cycle has been unable to deliver nothing significant to the upside.

Linda Piazza : 9/13/2005 11:00:10 AM

The OEX's 15-minute Keltner channel has set a downside target of 566.87, as long as it's producing 15-minute closes beneath a Keltner line currently at 571.47 and 571.79. There's been some problem with the OEX reaching these breakdown targets, so I'm not certain how trustworthy that one is.

Linda Piazza : 9/13/2005 10:53:53 AM

A new LOD on the OEX. It's weaker than expected, with the bear flag not even getting to the 15-minute 100-sma. New bears didn't get a chance to enter, but the OEX now tests potential support.

Jonathan Levinson : 9/13/2005 10:47:11 AM

QQQQ is back to its opening lows, the premarket lows still 2 cents away. If this 39.55-.60 confluence proves to be a head and shoulders neckline, then the implied target could be 25-cents south of it. Link

Jonathan Levinson : 9/13/2005 10:44:11 AM

Crude oil currently +.20 at 63.55, natgas -.075 at 10.955.

Linda Piazza : 9/13/2005 10:41:46 AM

OEX currently zagging down within a formation that looks like a bear flag setting up off the day's low . . . oops, no, the OEX is headed back toward the day's low, so that flag hasn't firmed up yet.

Jonathan Levinson : 9/13/2005 10:36:52 AM

Back. QQQQ's 30 min channel has declined, still joined by the 60 min channel, with the top range at 39.80-.85. The short cycle upphase has added 7 cents from the premarket low, clearly corrective, but until the day lows get broken, there's always the chance of a 30 min upphase being triggered on a strong buy program. Intraday direction remains up for grabs. Link

Linda Piazza : 9/13/2005 10:33:39 AM

The TRAN dropped to the daily 100-sma at 3610.73 this morning and is now attempting a bounce from that, but has the 200-sma above at 3640.21 to provide resistance. The bounce is not a strong one so far, and looks corrective. We've been fooled by these corrective-looking bounces before--or at least I have--however, as they suddenly take off, but that's what's happening so far.

Linda Piazza : 9/13/2005 10:23:33 AM

TRIN just now driving above 1.00, with the drop as steep as it's been. Bears want it to continue to rise. The OEX's bounce is as tepid as bears would wish this morning. Watch 572-572.60 for a possible rollover level, but then there's the possibility of a double-bottom near today's low and that possibility should be factored into any plans.

Jonathan Levinson : 9/13/2005 10:21:34 AM

Need to step away for 5 minutes here.

Linda Piazza : 9/13/2005 10:15:41 AM

OEX trying to bounce now.

Jonathan Levinson : 9/13/2005 10:15:23 AM

QQQQ update at this Link with a short cycle upphase currently in progress- looking corrective so far, mostly sideways.

Jeff Bailey : 9/13/2005 10:15:14 AM

10:00 Internals found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 9/13/2005 10:13:43 AM

Big drop in the RUT and it hasn't steadied yet but it has just dropped slightly below the 15-minute 100/130-ema's. Bulls may attempt to dig in their heels here and try to bounce it from this support that has worked all through September. Watch the quality of the bounce in the RUT, too.

Linda Piazza : 9/13/2005 10:08:01 AM

SOX isn't changing much, and in fact is a few cents positive this morning.

Linda Piazza : 9/13/2005 10:07:05 AM

I had thought we'd see the OEX steady around 570.75 and mount some sort of bounce attempt (referenced in my earlier posts), but it's sure looking weak. Hasn't bounced effectively yet, although it at least is making an attempt to steady.

Linda Piazza : 9/13/2005 10:04:16 AM

Here's that same chart I posted earlier this morning, complete with the original annotations, showing that the OEX has dropped through the rising channel off the August low and the important 15-minute 100/130-ema's. Link Now that retest of the 15-minute 100-ema from the bottom and the converging channel support lines will be important to watch. Bears hoping for a bounce-and-rollover entry should be watching that zone. If the OEX instead zooms up, zooming through those resistance levels, all bets are off as the retest is important.

Jeff Bailey : 9/13/2005 10:02:35 AM

10:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 9/13/2005 9:59:57 AM

Session high for ten year notes, with TNX down 4 bps to 4.129%.

Jonathan Levinson : 9/13/2005 9:58:15 AM

Mark, because the 30 and 60 min cycles are in the middle of bearish divergent downphases, my expectation is for a corrective short cycle upphase. The key will be whether we see another trending upphase in the short cycle, and I think that the hesitation in the daily cycle upphase noted earlier is suggesting we won't. It's complex, but there seems to be less gas in the tank than there was last week. At least, that's what I'm betting on.

Linda Piazza : 9/13/2005 9:57:39 AM

Current bears should be aware that they may have to weather a push up to 572-572.60 before they know for sure the character of the rise and whether there will be a rollover.

Jonathan Levinson : 9/13/2005 9:56:09 AM

The Fed announces a 2.25B overnight repo, resulting in a 2.5B net drain against the 4.75B expiring. The stop out rate was 3.47 on treasury collateral and 3.5 on agency collateral, still well below a 3.75% target if the Fed is going to raise next week.

Linda Piazza : 9/13/2005 9:50:14 AM

Yesterday I mentioned that the RUT had approached its daily Keltner target and resistance and that this resistance usually did hold, at least on its first approach. Before the close, the RUT had pulled back from that resistance, now at 683.85, and today it continues that pullback. Next daily support is at 672.10, and that should be watched closely. If that support holds on today's close, then the RUT hasn't broken its uptrend on a Keltner basis.

Linda Piazza : 9/13/2005 9:48:00 AM

The next Keltner resistance for the SOX is at 481.04 on 15-minute closes, with resistance above that at 482.09. Next support at 479.98, with next below that at 478.28, a possible target for the SOX, depending on how it handles the nearby resistance.

Jeff Bailey : 9/13/2005 9:46:23 AM

Kroger (KR) $20.70 +2.37% Link ... Grocer notches a new 52-week high after the nations largest grocery chain said Q2 profit rose 38%, aided by a rebound in California following a costly four-month strike last year.

Linda Piazza : 9/13/2005 9:45:48 AM

OEX hit a 570.85 LOD so far, and perhaps that's as far as it will get to my predicted 570.75, although the OEX is dipping again as I type. (See my 9:40 post.) Now, let's watch to see the shape of any bounce, if it occurs. Watch for resistance near the 15-minute 100-sma, now roughly congruent with the 38.2% retracement of the decline off yesterday's last five-minute high, at about 572.10. the 50% retracement is at about 572.53.

Jonathan Levinson : 9/13/2005 9:41:51 AM

QQQQ bears need to see the premarket low at 39.60 taken out, followed by yesterday's opening spike low. I'm still afraid of a strong shot cycle upphase to follow the current downphase. Link

Linda Piazza : 9/13/2005 9:40:49 AM

OEX hitting Keltner and other support. Potential support. Watching for a steadying attempt. If there is one, those wanting a new bearish entry should take note of the shape of any climb, and if it's corrective, snap a Fib chart on the decline from the last five-minute high yesterday, at 574.33, I believe, and start watching those Fib levels for resistance and possible rollover prospects. I wouldn't be surprised to hit an early-morning low near 570.75 and then see a corrective bounce back up to the 15-minute 100-ema.

Jonathan Levinson : 9/13/2005 9:38:44 AM

Gold and silver are leading to the downside, while bonds continue to rise. Currently, gold is down 4.8 to 449.80, silver -.134 to 6.928, while TNX is down 3.2 bps at 4.137%, back below confluence support, and IRX is down 1.9 bps at 3.396%.

Linda Piazza : 9/13/2005 9:36:57 AM

OEX plunges through the 15-minute 100-sma, headed toward the 130-ema at 571.26. Again, I expect a steadying attempt somewhere through here, if not an actual bounce attempt, although there's been NO steadying as of yet.

Jeff Bailey : 9/13/2005 9:38:18 AM

Nokia (NOK) $16.75 +4.29% Link ... stock gaps higher and is among this morning's most actively traded after the mobile phone maker raised its Q3 sales a profit forecast saying demand was strong and average sales prices were holding up better than expected.

Company now expecting Q3 net sales to be 8.4 billion to 8.5 billion euros, compared to its previous projection of 7.9-8.2 billion euros.

Linda Piazza : 9/13/2005 9:35:55 AM

RUT has already erased yesterday's gains, but it's early yet and anything can still happen. Some of the rest of yesterday's mo-mo indices are lower today, too, including the TRAN, whichis back below the 200-sma.

Linda Piazza : 9/13/2005 9:33:07 AM

The OEX heads immediately to the 15-minute 100/130-ema's at 572.08 and 571.27, respectively. Current bears need to consider the profit-protecting plans they put together. If that plan included taking partial profit at this point, now's the time to do it, although perhaps you want to wait just a moment to see if the OEX plunges straight through those averages. Bulls, the drop has been precipitous so far. The OEX is approaching a point at which I'd expect a steadying attempt, if not a bounce attempt, but the advdec line hasn't yet given the go-ahead for a bullish play. As you know, I'm not particularly gung ho on a bullish play anyway since the OEX is testing the support of what well may be a bear flag climb off the August low.

Jonathan Levinson : 9/13/2005 9:32:48 AM

Volume breadth at the open is -1.91:1 for the NYSE, -1.03:1 for the Nasdaq.

Jeff Bailey : 9/13/2005 9:29:45 AM

Manpower (MAN) $47.03 Link ... company saying that polling of fewer than 200 companies after Hurrican Katrina said they expected little impact on hiring plans for rest of the year. A quarterly survey of 16,000 companies taken before August 29 showed nearly 1/3 expecting to add to their payrolls in Q4.

Jeff Bailey : 9/13/2005 9:23:45 AM

HRPT (HRP) .... pricing 10 million share offering at $13.12/share.

Jeff Bailey : 9/13/2005 9:12:14 AM

Program Trading Levels for Tuesday ... HL Camp & Company has their computers set for program buying at $+7.75 and set for selling at $+5.35.

Jonathan Levinson : 9/13/2005 9:04:26 AM

QQQQ dropped down to an overnight low of 39.60. We remain short from 39.84. The drop exceeded the lower 30 and 60 min channel bottoms, and the current bounce is correcting that breach. The 30 and 60 min cycles are in the early-to-mid stages of bearish divergent rollovers, and the daily cycle upphase is showing a slight twitch near overbought territory on this morning's drop. The bounce should be corrective, and I'm leaving the stop in place at breakeven for the time being. But be aware that I've done this with profitable shorts for the past several sessions, only to get stopped out on a stronger than expected short cycle bounce to follow. I'm trying to position for an impending daily cycle downphase, and hope to have a trade emerge that will be profitable for a 2-3 week downside run. If your time horizon is narrower or your bias more bullish, then you can't go wrong taking an 18 cent profit on the open short here.

Linda Piazza : 9/13/2005 9:03:43 AM

As could have been expected, the DAX bounced off 4900--it was above 5,020 during intraday trading Friday, so you can see how far it's fallen in two trading days--but the bounce so far looks corrective. I said yesterday that the DAX might be important to watch since it hadn't been able to maintain that 5,000 that it had been aiming for, for so long. A corrective pullback would have looked bullish but a steep, impulsive kind of move wouldn't.

Linda Piazza : 9/13/2005 8:54:21 AM

The OEX ended Monday with a small-bodied candle at resistance. After such a day, the OEX often honors the uncertainty with either a doji day or an actual pullback, so those remain a strong possibility for today. Here's a snapshot of what was going on yesterday, on the 15-minute chart: Link Today the support from three channels joins the 15-minute 100/130-ema's, the averages that have been tracking the OEX's rise off the August lows. It's important to bulls to see that support hold, as a breakdown there hints that this rise has been nothing more than a bear-flag rise to retest broken support from the longer-term channel off the spring lows. There have been some signs of a weakening of the trend, with one of those signs being that each subsequent approach to the top of the rising channel off that August low has been weaker. The first few pierced the channel, and the next ones fell away before touching it.

Bulls who are feeling strongly that the markets are going to bounce again will want to buy that test of the three channels' support or of the 15-minute 100/130-ema's. Since I'm not sure whether that's a bear flag or not, and since the OEX is approaching the make or break point (has actually exceeded the height to which a bear flag probably should have climbed), I'm not so sure I feel so confident, so I'll want to see how internals set up on any test of that support. A bounce attempt probably should be expected.

I know one thing already, though. If the OEX should open below that 15-minute 100-sma at 572.08, I'd be careful about assuming that a bounce was going to occur, or rather that a bounce would then be anything other than a bounce up to retest that average. Right now, I don't think futures are low enough to indicate such an open, but I'm never good at guessing where the OEX is going to open based on the pre-market actions of the e-mini.

If such an open below the 15-minute 100-sma doesn't occur, current bears need to have their profit-protecting plans in place on a test of that channel-convergence support and those averages, if they're tested. If partial profit hasn't already been taken, it probably should be at that point. I'd expect some kind of bounce attempt. This day is an important one, because the possibility of a push down through that support exists, as it always does each time a flag-like channel's support is tested. Bulls want to see a bounce and a strong one accompanied by an impulsive gain that builds. Bears don't want to see much of a bounce at all, but certainly want it to look corrective, if it occurs.

One thing must be kept on the radar screen. We had a running up of the mo-mo indices yesterday. Either they're being positioned to pull the other indices higher with them or that was just a bunch of deluded momentum traders piling onto the RUT, RLX, GSO and TRAN. I'm not sure which version it's going to be.

Jonathan Levinson : 9/13/2005 8:41:04 AM

That was a log-scaled chart. Here's the same chart but with linear scaling: Link

Jonathan Levinson : 9/13/2005 8:40:05 AM

For another view on the inflation issue, here's an 18-year monthly candle chart of the Commodity Index, the CRB: Link

Jonathan Levinson : 9/13/2005 8:33:34 AM

QQQQ settled back to 39.62 as the y-o-y increase sunk in. Ten year notes hold their gains, with TNX up 1.9 bps at 4.153%.

Jonathan Levinson : 9/13/2005 8:32:24 AM

Headlines:

U.S. JULY TRADE GAP NARROWS 2.6% TO $57.9 BLN

U.S. JULY TRADE GAP BELOW CONSENSUS OF $59.5 BLN

U.S. JUNE TRADE GAP REV $59.5 BLN VS $58.8 PREV EST

U.S. AUG. PPI UP 0.6% VS. 0.7% EXPECTED

U.S. AUG. CORE PPI FLAT VS. 0.1% GAIN EXPECTED

U.S. PPI UP 5.1% YEAR-OVER-YEAR, HIGHEST IN 15 YEARS

U.S. CORE PPI UP 2.4% Y-O-Y, DOWN FROM 2.8% IN JULY

U.S. AUG. INTERMEDIATE GOODS PPI UP 0.7%

U.S. JULY TRADE GAP WITH CHINA RECORD $17.7 BLN

U.S. CORE INTERMEDIATE PPI UP 3.2% Y-O-Y

U.S. CRUDE PPI UP 2.3%

U.S. AUG. ENERGY PRICES UP 3.7%

Jonathan Levinson : 9/13/2005 8:31:10 AM

Still waiting for the economic data, but it looks like it was prereleased.

Jonathan Levinson : 9/13/2005 8:21:52 AM

That was my thought last night as well, Marc. Judging from the futures, we're not alone. Currently, ten year notes have opened flat, TNX down .1 bps at 4.168%, so it appears that the bond market is on hold after yesterday's selloff.

Jonathan Levinson : 9/13/2005 7:46:48 AM

Equities are down, ES trading 1242.25, NQ 1621.5, YM 10684 and QQQQ -.11 at 39.62. Gold is down 1.3 at 452.30, silver is up .002 at 7.064, ten year notes are down 1/16 at 111 5/32, crude oil is up .475 at 63.825 and natgas is down .09 at 10.94.

We await the 8:30 release of the Trade Balance for July, est. -59.8B, the PPI and Core PPI, est. .7% and .1%, then at 2PM, the Treasury Budget for Aug., est. -47.8B.

Linda Piazza : 9/13/2005 7:06:43 AM

Good morning. The Nikkei managed a close barely above the flat-line last night, with other Asian markets showing a mixed performance. European markets drop, with the DAX plummeting ahead of next week's election. As of 6:54 EST, gold was down $1.50, and crude, up $0.45, to $63.79. More detail about Asian and European markets follows in succeeding paragraphs.

The Nikkei has gone parabolic lately. Its climb off the May low was already steep, with barely a pullback to be found, but this month that climb has steepened. Tuesday morning, the Nikkei opened near the flat-line level, dived about 50 points into negative territory and then started a straight-up climb that looked like a continuation of that parabolic climb. However, the Nikkei then trended down all day, closing just above the flat-line level. It was up 5.52 points or 0.04%, at 12,901.95.

That first early dip in the Nikkei was attributed to a sell-the-fact reaction after Koizumi's party's landslide victory, with many feeling that the Nikkei had already priced in a victory. Automakers gained in early trading. Toyota has announced that it will produce more hybrid vehicles next year. Oil-related issues dropped with declining crude prices. Economic developments included the release of the Bank of Japan's minutes from the August 8-9 meeting, with members saying that capex and consumption surprised by being more robust than anticipated.

Other Asian markets were mixed. The Taiwan Weighted gained 0.07%, but South Korea's Kospi dropped 0.02%. Singapore's Straits Times fell 0.63%, and Hong Kong's Hang Seng dropped 0.85%. China's Shanghai Composite rose 1.59%.

European markets drop, with Germany's DAX particularly hard-hit two trading days after it finally closed above 5,000. Oil-related issues dropped in Europe, too. In Germany, a poll showed that the results of the September 18 election may come down to the wire, with both main parties garnering 48.5% support, and there's some hesitancy about stock market performance ahead of that election. CPI figures were being released in Europe this morning. Final French August CPI met expectations by being revised up to a 0.4% gain month over month and a 18.8% gain year over year. Energy prices were of course responsible for that upward revision. Seasonally adjusted, consumer inflation rose 0.4% month over month and 1.9% year over year. EU-harmonized numbers showed a revised gain of 2% year over year. Spain's number rose 0.4% month over month from July's surprising drop. Year over year, the gain was 3.3% in both the national and EU-harmonized figures. Core CPI ex food and energy rose 2.4% year over year. The figures for Spain were at or slightly above expectations. In the U.K., August's number showed the expected bump higher from energy costs, although other costs appeared to be in control. Still, those energy costs are expected to send September's number higher, with September traditionally seeing a generous gain anyway.

Stock-specific news included earnings by France's Vivendi Universal, with the company's stock rising in early trading after the company raised its adjusted net profit target for the year. British newspaper publisher Daily Mail & General Trust included a statement that advertising markets have weakened more since May, and that company's stock dropped in early trading. Although automakers had shown strength in Japan, Porsche AG dropped after reporting revenue that rose 6.8% and vehicle sales growth that rose 15%. The revenue growth appeared to be a bit lighter than analysts had expected. U.K. insurer Insurer Friends Provident rose after reporting earnings and increasing its dividend payout.

As of 5:50 EST, the FTSE 100 had dropped 38.20 points or 0.71%, to 5,336.90. The CAC 40 had fallen 32.88 points or 0.73%, to 4,458.94. The DAX had fallen 85.19 points or 1.71%, to 4,904.79. It's fallen more than 18% from its intraday high on Friday.

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