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Tab Gilles : 9/16/2005 1:03:23 AM

$GOX Link $XAU Link $GOX/$USD Link Link

Tab Gilles : 9/16/2005 12:25:51 AM

Several charts of interest from EIA. Link Link Link Link

Murphy Oil (MUR) Link

Tab Gilles : 9/15/2005 11:47:24 PM

$NASI Nasdaq Summation Index: SELL SIGNAL 9/15 11:23AM & 11:31 AM posts stating that I was selling before getting the $NASI weekly signal after the close. Basing the sell on $NDX MACD (see above posts). However, after the close the $NASI did give a sell signal confirmation. Link

Those trading the Profund UltraOTC Fund (UOPIX) selling at 9/15 closing NAV of $23.23 versus entry on 9/7 of $23.60 for a -1.51% loss. Link Link

Now as stated in previous posts, I'm not entering the short position via USPIX Ultrashort OTC, rather I'm going to watch tomorrow's option ex and the Fed next week and closely monitor the charts. Sitting in cash/sidelined.

OI Technical Staff : 9/15/2005 9:59:59 PM

The Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

Disclaimer: Stocks discussed in the Market Monitor are for educational purposes only and any analysis is not meant to imply a recommendation for or against that stock. The analysts in this forum as on any other website are prohibited by the SEC from giving any specific advice to ANY individual trader. All information posted is for ALL readers and is not meant to be directed to any individual. Our analysts cannot answer any email questions regarding any specific stock. Please do not ask and please do not take offense if requests are denied.

Results posted in the Market Monitor are hypothetical and OIN does not claim that any reader achieved these exact results. Due to the lag time between research, writing, posting, uploading, reading and execution there will be differences between the actual signal given and the fill achieved by the reader. Fills may be better or worse but in most cases they will be different. The writers will make every effort to give advance notice of intended signals and indicate potential price targets. Your individual results may vary depending on your activity level and aggressiveness. This forum is intended as an education service only. Trading involves risk and should not be attempted by anyone not ready to accept this risk. By acting on any signal in this forum you agree and personally accept this risk.

Jeff Bailey : 9/15/2005 8:01:55 PM

Pivot Matrix for tomorrow at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 9/15/2005 7:22:01 PM

Closing U.S. Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 9/15/2005 7:12:15 PM

Closing Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 9/15/2005 6:42:20 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles found at this Link ... Today's Activity ... Stopped out of the 1/3 bullish position (Buy 100 shares@$39.16 for $10,000=full position risk management) in eBay (EBAY) at $37.50 ($-1.66, or -4.24%).

Closed out the full position short in the QQQQ at target of $39.05 ($+0.43, or +1.09%).

Swing traded long five (5) of the Bank of America BAC Sep $42.50 Calls (BAC-IV) at $0.25. Stop is up to you with tomorrow's expiration (see game plan at 06:12:48 PM) and currently have an OPEN ORDER TO SELL at $0.50.

Jeff Bailey : 9/15/2005 6:12:48 PM

Stupid is as stupid does - Forrest Gump.

Here's the game plan I will be looking to trade for the speculative BAC Sep. $42.50 Calls for tomorrow at this Link ... where I show QCharts' WEEKLY Pivot Levels, and have run the calculations for the DAILY Pivot Levels, which I've derived from today's high/low/close. I also "project" Sep. $42.50 call option prices, give or take $0.05 per contract at the DAILY Pivot Levels.

Jeff Bailey : 9/15/2005 5:36:58 PM

Expiring Options Exercise Manipulation Game ... Educational ... Here the OEX top 25 components at the close Link .

Sorry for some of the small text, but I try to benchmark the OEX at 03:20 (567.72) and then at 03:40 (567.35) and today's close is 568.29.

Then I post some of the most heavily weighted stocks and the price they were trading from 3:39-3:40 EDT (HL Camp uses Central Time Zone of 02:40 in their "Manipulation" description).

"Momma always said life was like a box of chocolates....."

For the most part, there was some manipulation. Almost got 1-point on the OEX.X in last 20-minutes. Not an exciting pre-expire move. "You just ever know what you're gonna get." - Forrest Gump

Jeff Bailey : 9/15/2005 3:55:52 PM

TRIN alert 0.88 and DAILY Pivot

Linda Piazza : 9/15/2005 3:55:36 PM

Every bounce since late Tuesday afternoon has taken the OEX up into a test of the five-minute 100/130-ema's, now at 568.43 and 568.71. Every test of these since Tuesday afternoon as resulted in a rollover, but the last drop back from these averages didn't drop as far away from them as others do, before the OEX headed right back up to retest them. So far, they're holding as resistance, but we really have to discount a lot of what happening in these last few minutes due to opex activities and to the presence of that 200-sma just below as support.

Jonathan Levinson : 9/15/2005 3:45:44 PM

QQQQ's daily cycle holds its fresh sell signal, the 60 min cycle continues to trend in oversold while the 30 min cyles, still trending, have printed their most recent buy signals- but neither the 30 nor 60 min channel show any sign of uptick. 1st sign of trouble for the bears will be a break above 39.22, the site of the previous high.

Jeff Bailey : 9/15/2005 3:50:28 PM

BAC bullish call update alert ... Cancel the order to sell the Sep. $42.50 calls at $0.60 and replace with $0.50.

Linda Piazza : 9/15/2005 3:43:24 PM

They're trying to run stops. I said earlier that bears want the advdec line to drop to -1500 and not bounce back above -1300, and it's trying to do just that. It's essentially testing the resistance there. Advdec line at -1312 right now after dropping to -1546. The advdec line hasn't really broken back above the former support line, but neither has it stayed very well below it. All bets are off this late on an opex Thursday, but so far, no bounces are sticking. Honor your stops.

Jeff Bailey : 9/15/2005 3:41:30 PM

options $0.30 x $0.35

Jeff Bailey : 9/15/2005 3:41:05 PM

gets some volume!

Jeff Bailey : 9/15/2005 3:40:52 PM

Bank of America (BAC) $42.75

Linda Piazza : 9/15/2005 3:38:52 PM

Possibility of more downside into the close today, but, again, this is a good place to take partial or full profit on your OEX bearish plays (I just did), depending on your style and the amount you invested and a multitude of other considerations.

Jonathan Levinson : 9/15/2005 3:36:05 PM

QQQQ has plunged 4 cents to 39.11, a big move for the past 10 minutes (relative to the past hour), the wavelet cycle interrupting its weak upphase here: Link

Linda Piazza : 9/15/2005 3:33:22 PM

Advdec line hitting the support that has held it all day. Either it drops through here or it finds support again and the OEX rattles around some more. Bears want to see -1500 hit on the advdec line and fairly quickly, without a bounce back above -1300. Advdec at -1292 as I type.

Jeff Bailey : 9/15/2005 3:28:30 PM

OEX top-25 components at this Link

Linda Piazza : 9/15/2005 3:27:37 PM

Big bounce attempt from the rising trendline off the OEX's LOD. It's getting slapped back and the advdec line didn't bounce along with it, but this sure shows that someone is trying to pick a bottom. Shows the need for bears to produce some more follow-through to the downside, too.

Linda Piazza : 9/15/2005 3:24:48 PM

The advdec line still shows the possibility for more downside, but will it happen? I've been clear all day and yesterday that 567 historical support and the 200-sma at 566.81 could be powerful support levels and this is opex Thursday, too. From here on out, I'm not so sure that chart characteristics will be as helpful as they should be. All I can say is that those chart characteristics still point to the possibility of more downside.

Linda Piazza : 9/15/2005 3:21:44 PM

The OEX is back at that ascending trendline off the day's low, at about 567.70 currently. On a Keltner basis, it looks vulnerable to 566.70-567.20, as long as it maintains 15-minute closes beneath the line at 567.96.

Jeff Bailey : 9/15/2005 3:20:19 PM

02:20 CDT alert .... BAC $42.66 , OEX 567.89

Jonathan Levinson : 9/15/2005 3:18:45 PM

QQQQ has now lost rising support off the noon low, but with only a small rise in volume. The intraday cycles, from wavelet to 60 min, are mostly drifting by this point as the op-ex tractor beam drags the price sideways. I see the lack of a return to the 39.05 low as bullish, just as the failure to revisit the 39.34 morning high is bearish, price coiling sideways and waiting for a break. Link

Jeff Bailey : 9/15/2005 3:15:52 PM

03:00 Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 9/15/2005 3:14:05 PM

BAC $42.68 +0.04% ...

Linda Piazza : 9/15/2005 3:14:23 PM

Bears need to see a new LOD and probably need to see it quickly. The ascending trendline off the LOD is now at about 567.63, currently being tested, with the OEX at 567.71 as I type. The OEX needs to punch through this and quickly down through the previous LOD to avoid the possibility of a stop-running move. So far, that support holds and there was just a big bounce up to 567.99 as I typed. The advdec line still shows the possibility of more downside, but shorts may be deciding to cover now, so watch carfully. Five-minute 100/130-ema's at 568.54 and 568.82, respectively.

Jeff Bailey : 9/15/2005 3:13:20 PM

TRIN 1.08 ... "bluck"

Jeff Bailey : 9/15/2005 3:04:25 PM

03:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 9/15/2005 3:02:54 PM

2-day view of QQQQ here, 100-tick basis, with price again teetering on rising support off the noon test of the low: Link

Linda Piazza : 9/15/2005 3:03:56 PM

Earlier today, the advdec line had set up the possibility that it would climb to about -500 or maybe even a little higher, but it never made it there, stopped by the resistance it now faces. It's again setting up that possibility, but will it make it this time? Now at -792 issues. The OEX's climb off the low of the day still looks bear flaggish, but that's not helping those of you waiting for a new LOD and instead watching the OEX climb higher in a potential flag. I hope you took partial profit when suggested and then can watch this knowing that your stops are guarding you on the rest of the position. Some of you are doubtless stopped out by now if you set those stops, as suggested, to keep profitable positions from turning negative. If the OEX should turn over now and hit a new LOD, congratulate yourselves anyway for honoring your plan. It could just as easily have continued higher, and still might.

Jeff Bailey : 9/15/2005 2:58:38 PM

Got some decent steepening in the yield curve today. 5-year up 3.8 bp with 30-year up 6.0 bp.

Linda Piazza : 9/15/2005 2:53:46 PM

Advdec line again trying to climb, testing resistance. This won't give up, bringing the OEX up toward a test of 568.83-568.90 Keltner resistance on 15-minute closes. Bears would rather the current 15-minute period end back below the Keltner line currently at 568.02. OEX at 568.31 as I type.

Jeff Bailey : 9/15/2005 2:50:53 PM

TRIN / BAC montage at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 9/15/2005 2:47:47 PM

Look at the bid build in the calls!

Jeff Bailey : 9/15/2005 2:47:12 PM

C'mon ... BAC $42.74 and 50% dynamic.

Jeff Bailey : 9/15/2005 2:45:12 PM

BAC Level II update at this Link ... note the sudden CBOE bid up at $0.25.

Linda Piazza : 9/15/2005 2:40:25 PM

OEX 15-minute Keltner resistance at 568.86-568.83 on 15-minute closes. The OEX didn't give up climbing the underside of this morning's neutral triangle after all. The advdec line is still holding in the right place for a potential downturn, however. This should not encourage you to stay in a play that has breached its stop, however. I've seen times when a price move preceded an advdec move, rather than the other way around as usually happens.

Jeff Bailey : 9/15/2005 2:35:06 PM

Got your alerts set on the $PREM.X?

Linda Piazza : 9/15/2005 2:34:28 PM

OEX bears who might still be in a bearish play and not yet stopped out want 15-minute closes to remain below a Keltner line currently at 568.92. They would have preferred that they remain below the one at 567.94. There's still lots of time in this 15-minute period, of course.

Jonathan Levinson : 9/15/2005 2:35:10 PM

ECbot Dec. mini gold is up 5.10 at 458.80, off a high of 460. I don't know at what level Prechter promised to throw in the towel on his bearish gold call, but if it hasn't been hit, it must be close. This is a new 6 month high for the Dec. contract.

Jeff Bailey : 9/15/2005 2:33:42 PM

TRIN 0.96 now

Jeff Bailey : 9/15/2005 2:33:00 PM

Gets interesting ... after a low of $42.60, BAC $42.71 and 38.2% "dynamic." Volume quiet.

Jeff Bailey : 9/15/2005 2:31:19 PM

QQQQ $39.13 has violated that $39.05 low.

Jeff Bailey : 9/15/2005 2:30:54 PM

VXN.X 15.80 +1.47% ...

Jeff Bailey : 9/15/2005 2:30:14 PM

I just didn't get to the VXN.X and QQQQ/option action I wanted to earlier. So many things can be done, just not enough time.

Jonathan Levinson : 9/15/2005 2:29:56 PM

Crude oil is down .35 at 64.75, off a day low of 63.90 and high of 65.10 with 1 minute left in the session. Natgas is up .185 at 11.35 after its post-10:30 inventory data dip into negative territory.

Jeff Bailey : 9/15/2005 2:29:16 PM

VIX.X 12.58 -2.55% ... below the WEEKLY Pivot. That's got to be bullish doesn't it? A little?

Linda Piazza : 9/15/2005 2:28:07 PM

Not much progress made to the downside, either, as I commented might happen. Technically, everything is still working well, set up for more downside, but there's still that little matter of the 567 historical support and the 200-sma and opex action all to be figured in, too. More downside might not happen. So far, so good, but . . . and I know I sound like a broken record . . . adhere to those profit-protecting plans.

Jeff Bailey : 9/15/2005 2:27:53 PM

TRIN 1.02 ... has been bouncing here since moving above at 11:00 AM EST. Need a reading below DAILY Pivot.

Jonathan Levinson : 9/15/2005 2:20:32 PM

Little change for volume breadth, still running almost 2:1 in favor of declining Nasdaq shares as QQQQ holds 7 cents off the low. The current short cycle downphase is weaker than the upphase which preceded it, possibly a hint of bullish things to come, but there's still no sign of life from the broader 30/60 min cycles.

Jeff Bailey : 9/15/2005 2:20:29 PM

BAC $42.61 -0.03% ... session low now. Drag the lower part of your "dynamic" lower. Where's the 61.8% at? I've got $42.78. 50% is at $42.75. Could this be "the low of the day?"

Jeff Bailey : 9/15/2005 2:18:18 PM

02:00 Internals found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 9/15/2005 2:14:51 PM

The advdec line may be about finished trying to rise (still tentatively looks that way), but the OEX isn't quite finished testing the neutral triangle's former support, trying to break its way back in. Some will also point to the possibility of a double-bottom trying to form here. That remains possible--anything does on an opex Thursday, but the advdec line still looks as if it might keel over again. I'm watching, though, and would not encourage current bears to hold on if their stops are hit.

Jeff Bailey : 9/15/2005 2:12:25 PM

BAC $42.65 +0.02% here.

Jeff Bailey : 9/15/2005 2:11:52 PM

Filled alert ... on five (5) of the BAC-IV.

Jeff Bailey : 9/15/2005 2:07:25 PM

TRIN 1.05 ... watch it, understand it as to the manipulation gain. What should it do if the trade is on?

Jonathan Levinson : 9/15/2005 2:05:29 PM

No reprieve for ten year notes, grinding their way lower, with the yield (TNX) now up 5.5 bps at 4.223%. IRX has gone positive as well, +1 bp at 3.355%.

Jeff Bailey : 9/15/2005 2:04:37 PM

02:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 9/15/2005 2:00:50 PM

The advdec push higher may be finished now. We'll soon see. Tentative signs that it is.

Linda Piazza : 9/15/2005 1:58:47 PM

To be clear, everything still appears set up for more downside on the OEX, but that's not a given and especially not on an opex Thursday. Still, there's nothing yet that I see that suggest a long position is setting up. All appears to be working as expected. You should still honor your profit-protecting plans. Those who exited all or partial positions earlier have been saved this fingernail-knawing period, knowing that the downside could be limited, even if there does appear at least a good chance of more downside.

Jeff Bailey : 9/15/2005 1:57:41 PM

BAC Level II montage snapshot of options and stock at this Link ... educational info per HL Camp's "Expiring Option Exercise Manipulation Game" ...

Linda Piazza : 9/15/2005 1:56:01 PM

Here comes the push in the advdec line, perhaps up to -350 to -400, that I earlier mention, saying that I didn't know if the OEX was through testing that neutral triangle's former support line. Not sure the advdec line will get that high, however, but it remains a possibility. The OEX climbs along the underside of its former support today in a choppy and flaggish manner.

Jonathan Levinson : 9/15/2005 1:51:39 PM

Daily candle chart of QQQQ at this Link with price testing the 22 day EMA, coiled within trendline support and resistance. The oscillator picture is more decisive than price-trendline picture would suggest- bears need to see a break of 50 day EMA support at the lower trendline to comfirm what would be equivalent to a weekly cycle breakdown below rising support from the April low.

Jeff Bailey : 9/15/2005 1:46:01 PM

I haven't gotten filled yet.

Jeff Bailey : 9/15/2005 1:50:49 PM

Bank of America (BAC) ... here's what to look for .... Upper chart was shown earlier, lower chart is with "dynamic." Pretend you are a day trade SHORT in BAC (if bullish, always be open to the opposite) and using the dynamic as your daily range. Chart montage at this Link

The call option play is speculative. See what we're paying and risking? $25.00/contract. $42.50 + $0.25 = $42.75.

Thought about playing the stock, but for the $0.25 risk in the option with a target back toward WEEKLY Pivot, if filled at $0.25, then don't have the RISK worry of buying $10,000 worth, or 1,000 shares.

Jonathan Levinson : 9/15/2005 1:39:07 PM

QQQQ flirts with rising flag support here at 39.16-.17: Link

Jeff Bailey : 9/15/2005 1:34:06 PM

BAC $42.68

Jeff Bailey : 9/15/2005 1:33:49 PM

Bullish swing trade call option alert ... lets bid five (5) of the Bank of America Sep. $42.50 Calls (BAC-IV) for $0.25 (bid/ask $0.20 x $0.30). Once filled, place an order to sell for $0.60.

Linda Piazza : 9/15/2005 1:33:20 PM

Sounds like an interesting game, Jeff. For us market nerds, that is. I don't imagine my daughters, erudite as they might be, would think that an "Expiring Options Exercise Manipulation Game" sounded like fun. Smile.

Linda Piazza : 9/15/2005 1:31:11 PM

It's still possible that the advdec line (and, so, the OEX) isn't quite through testing resistance. Wouldn't be surprised to see the advdec line move up toward -500 to -350. I'm just not sure yet. Anyway, for those bears not stopped out on that push during the last 15-minute period, the OEX is back below the neutral triangle's supporting line although not yet at a new LOD, and I'm not yet sure that the OEX is through testing that triangle's former support. All still looks as if it's working okay, but remember that the OEX is so close to potentially strong support, too, and this is opex Thursday.

Jeff Bailey : 9/15/2005 1:23:27 PM

Good reminder Linda (12:52:13) .... traders can also better understand their free "Expiring Options Exercise Manipulation Game" if they called HL Camp and got the link.

Linda Piazza : 9/15/2005 1:19:53 PM

OEX and advdec line both trying to push above resistance again. The OEX remains in its downtrend, but don't ignore your stops.

Jonathan Levinson : 9/15/2005 1:19:48 PM

Session low for crude oil, -1.05 at 64.05 here, a 1.61% decline, with natgas down 1.07% or 12 cents at 11.045.

Jonathan Levinson : 9/15/2005 1:19:07 PM

TNX adds to its gains, now up 5.4 bps at 4.222%, +1.3% for the day. Daily chart of the TNX at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 9/15/2005 1:18:15 PM

01:00 Internals found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 9/15/2005 1:17:38 PM

Depending on how closely you set your stops, some of you may have been stopped out on the remaining portion of your bearish OEX position on that surge during the last 15-minute period. For the rest, the OEX is now tentatively back below the former rising trendline off yesterday's low--the line that marked the bottom line of the coiling triangle today. The advdec line has held at resistance. So far. These are tentative conclusions and should not encourage you to ignore your stops or your previously set profit-protecting plans.

Linda Piazza : 9/15/2005 1:11:38 PM

The OEX has now risen to retest the former ascending trendline off yesterday's low, punching above it and back into today's triangular formation as I type. Bears wanted a 15-minute close beneath the line currently at 568.02, but stronger resistance is at 569.17-570.17. The advdec line has risen now to test its former support, now at about -700, and bears would like that to hold on 15-minute closes, too.

Jeff Bailey : 9/15/2005 1:09:49 PM

01:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 9/15/2005 1:09:43 PM

QQQQQ breaks upward out of the flag formation, returning to 39.25-.27 resistance: Link

Linda Piazza : 9/15/2005 1:08:12 PM

The BIX is back to potential support at the bottom of its broadening formation. I've been mentioning the OEX's and BIX's broadening formations for many months now, all through the summer. These are typically bearish formations, and they set up as the BIX and OEX rose off the spring low, but then expanded so much that we now have to consider them as occurring in the midst of the big consolidation over the last couple of years. That consolidation on the BIX has now taken the form of a well-formed H&S on the BIX's weekly chart. Depending on tomorrow's close (since it's a weekly chart), the BIX may have broken through the neckline of that formation: Link

Jeff Bailey : 9/15/2005 1:07:26 PM

Bank of America (BAC) $42.68 +0.07% ... trader's chart at this Link

Tab Gilles : 9/15/2005 1:03:22 PM

INTC & $SOX Link Link

Linda Piazza : 9/15/2005 1:02:01 PM

The RLX sits right above its 200-sma, at 442.73 with the 200-sma just below at 441.17. The RLX is at 444.08 as I type. Those MA's are roughly congruent with the neckline of a H&S. On a neckline break, if it should occur, support might be found near the late-June swing low of 435.79.

Jonathan Levinson : 9/15/2005 1:01:52 PM

QQQQ's trending 30 min cycle oscillators are trying to turn up, while the channels for the 30 and 60 min cycles continue sideways within the new daily cycle downphase. QQQQ bulls need to clear the prior bounce highs at 39.27 to suggest an end to this trending decline: Link

Jonathan Levinson : 9/15/2005 12:55:32 PM

Volume breadth -1.47:1 for the NYSE, and -1.94:1 for the Nasdaq.

Jeff Bailey : 9/15/2005 12:54:03 PM

OEX Components top 25-weighted components at this Link

Linda Piazza : 9/15/2005 12:52:13 PM

Just a reminder for the newbies and even for experienced traders who might be managing a lot of positions: unlike some other indices, the OEX's options continue trading tomorrow and the OEX settles at the close tomorrow, not at the open. This means, for you newbies, that the settlement value is a compilation of the closing values of the component stocks of the OEX, NOT the closing value for the OEX.

Linda Piazza : 9/15/2005 12:50:43 PM

So, the OEX made a closer approach to the 200-sma and all you bears out there had time to enact your profit-protecting plans. Some of you may have elected to take full profits and watch the test of the 200-sma or maybe just take off the rest of the day. Probably saved yourselves lots of fingernail-knawing, if you did, and have fun! Some may have taken partial profits and lowered stops on the rest. That takes some of the tension out of watching this current corrective bounce, too. If you haven't taken partial profit or even if you have, don't let a bounce get away from you. Don't let a winning position turn negative. The signs I watch suggest that there could still be more downside, but OEX Keltner support keeps trying to firm up, too, and there's that 200-sma below.

Jeff Bailey : 9/15/2005 12:45:18 PM

If you're not doing anything right now, give my friend Hank Camp a call at HL Camp & Company and ask for their "Expiring Options Exercise Manipulation Game" material. 1-877-811-5304

Jonathan Levinson : 9/15/2005 12:45:14 PM

QQQQ's bounce is taking the shape of a bear flag here, the short cycle again trying to turn up against the wavelet turning down: Link

Jeff Bailey : 9/15/2005 12:43:28 PM

Bank of America (BAC) $42.63 -0.02% ... will monitor for stock to pull into $42.47 area, firm around 02:20 PM EDT.

Linda Piazza : 9/15/2005 12:41:40 PM

So far, all is working out as wanted in my 12:32:05 post, but still time left in this 15-minute period and still other 15-minute periods to come.

Jeff Bailey : 9/15/2005 12:41:08 PM

Bank of America (BAC) $42.65 +0.02% ... looking at a bullish swing trade setup this afternoon. Get your "dynamic" and 5-mrts along with WEEKLY/DAILY Pivot levels set up on this one. Trade would be bullish this afternoon, then look to sell tomorrow morning.

OEX 567.59 +0.03% ...

Linda Piazza : 9/15/2005 12:36:58 PM

OEX bears want 568.17 to hold on 15-minute closes, although the strongest resistance is at about 569.30-570.25 on 15-minute closes. They want the advdec line to find resistance below about -650 on 15-minute closes, although those lines change quickly. OEX at 567.70 and advdec line at -983 as I type.

Linda Piazza : 9/15/2005 12:32:05 PM

OEX trying to steady; advdec line trying to do so, too, at support, but the signs I watch most often still haven't given a long signal which I won't be taking anyway. I'm watching for that, for a sign that the decline might be finished. Haven't gotten confirmation of that: just a sign that there might be a bear-flag type rise. That does NOT mean you should ignore your stops. I don't, on occasions like these.

Jonathan Levinson : 9/15/2005 12:25:42 PM

Ten year note yields have broken the prior high, currently up 4.3 bps at 4.211%. 4.195%-4.2% is now confluence support.

Jonathan Levinson : 9/15/2005 12:20:05 PM

Stepping away for ten minutes here.

Jonathan Levinson : 9/15/2005 12:17:10 PM

Second that, Keene. Link

Linda Piazza : 9/15/2005 12:17:07 PM

Looks as if the OEX is going to bounce up to retest the former ascending trendline off yesterday's low. Bears don't want a quick bounce back inside that coil today, as that suggests the possibility of a fake-out move, a stop-running move. Bears want to see the OEX remain below 568.28 and the advdec line below -680 on 15-minute closes.

Jonathan Levinson : 9/15/2005 12:15:39 PM

Volume breadth weakens to -1.46:1 for the NYSE, -2.6:1 for the Nasdaq, QQQQ retesting its prior low. Ten year notes have weakened further, TNX up 4.7 bps to 4.215%, IRX -1.3 bps at 3.332%. So far, the Fed's tightening via its open market ops and the rising stop out rate have been hitting the longer dated ten year notes harder.

Jeff Bailey : 9/15/2005 12:13:06 PM

12:00 Internals found at this Link

Yesterday's Internals found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 9/15/2005 12:10:06 PM

Advdec line at a possible bounce point again. Today, it's been steadying at these potential support levels, but not really bouncing. Could be some steadying here. Some charts suggest there could be more downside, though.

The OEX tests yesterday's low and the Keltner support at 567.04-567.13. Bears would like those breached on 15-minute closes, setting up a new downside target, but that line slopes down, too, and the OEX could just slide lower along that line.

Linda Piazza : 9/15/2005 12:07:58 PM

Slight new LOD for the OEX. Bears want it soundly below yesterday's low to confirm the breakdown out of today's coil, and to avoid the possibility of a double-bottom bounce. Bears, you've had time to prepare your profit-taking plan, so if that included taking partial profit or full profit as the OEX approached the 200-sma, pull out that plan and put it into effect.

Jonathan Levinson : 9/15/2005 12:06:25 PM

Session lows for ES and YM here.

Linda Piazza : 9/15/2005 12:05:05 PM

Watch for another potential steadying of the advdec line in the -1250 to -1200 zone, although it may be destined to go much lower. It's at -986 as I type.

Jonathan Levinson : 9/15/2005 12:03:48 PM

The "Prices Paid" component tells a different story from the PPI and CPI data this week.

Linda Piazza : 9/15/2005 12:04:00 PM

Advdec line breaking lower now, and OEX moving lower, too, but only to test the rising trendline off yesterday's low. It hasn't broken through that (attempting to bounce again), so the push higher a few minutes ago was just a widening of today's coil. The advdec line is back to doing what bears want, and, if that was the bounce that echoed yesterday's bounce attempt, it, too, was weaker than that seen yesterday, as other signs have been.

Jonathan Levinson : 9/15/2005 12:03:05 PM

Headlines:

U.S. SEPT. PHILLY FED 2.2 VS.17.6 IN AUG.

U.S. SEPT. PHILLY FED INDEX BELOW 12.3 CONSENSUS

U.S. SEPT. PHILLY FED NEW ORDERS -0.5 VS. 19.8 IN AUG.

U.S. SEPT. PHILLY FED PRICES PAID 52.7 VS. 25.9 IN AUG.

Jeff Bailey : 9/15/2005 12:02:43 PM

12:00 Market Watch at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 9/15/2005 12:01:12 PM

Philly Fed 2.2, est. 13.3, prior 17.5

Jonathan Levinson : 9/15/2005 11:59:49 AM

QQQQ held above the 72 SMA for all of 15 minutes and is now ticking below it. That upside surge may have been the terminal move for the short cycle upphase, and while it's ticked the 30 min cycle channel up, the short cycle is one good sell spike away from a new downphase. This remains extremely weak action from such strongly oversold intraday cycles, and suggests that the daily cycle downphase kicking off this morning cool be a strong one. Link

Jeff Bailey : 9/15/2005 11:55:11 AM

Thanks Linda ... maybe it is my hamsters that need feeding.

Linda Piazza : 9/15/2005 11:55:11 AM

No new HOD for the OEX. The advdec line is perhaps starting a sideways/sideways-up move like yesterday's, showing some divergence in time and other ways. Here's one: once the advdec line dropped below a certain support line yesterday, it never closed another 15-minute period back above it. It just did during the last 15-minute period. Not sure how much weight to give this yet, as the advdec line remains beneath the resistance at about -80 (lines move quickly), although it may still test that, much less that at about +450. Advdec line now at -498 as I type. A continued retest of that neckline and maybe even of the 570-571 zone now look more possible.

Linda Piazza : 9/15/2005 11:46:25 AM

Jeff, sorry, I was studying charts. No, I'm not having any difficulties with the QCharts' servers. I guess I feed my hamsters better than you do yours. Smile.

Jonathan Levinson : 9/15/2005 11:44:51 AM

QQQQ blasts above 72 SMA and runs straight to 30 min channel resistance here: Link

Linda Piazza : 9/15/2005 11:44:38 AM

OEX back at the neckline again, breaking out of that coil to the upside but not yet confirming by a new HOD. 15-minute 100/130-ema's at 570.43 and 570.37, and bears want those to hold on 15-minute closes, if the neckline doesn't.

Linda Piazza : 9/15/2005 11:43:32 AM

Yes, that divergence did matter, and there is a bounce beginning. Bears want the advdec line to stay below about -100.

Jeff Bailey : 9/15/2005 11:41:40 AM

I can't get a connection to QCharts at all right now. Need to feed those hamsters.

Linda Piazza : 9/15/2005 11:41:03 AM

A little more strength showing up the advdec line now. It's nothing definitive yet, but I'm monitoring closely for divergence from yesterday's pattern and there's some slight divergence now, on the strength side, which may mean a bounce being attempted. Not sure how far it would get just yet.

Jeff Bailey : 9/15/2005 11:38:45 AM

Linda ... are you having trouble keeping/getting a connection with QCharts' SC servers?

Jonathan Levinson : 9/15/2005 11:34:17 AM

As we saw throughout yesterday's session, the short cycle upphase is generating poor price traction for QQQQ off the 39.05 low, with 39.20 so far capping the advance. The 30 min channel continues to decline, with lower channel support down to 39.00. 72 SMA resistance holds at 39.20, and bulls need to take this level with authority to suggest that a viable 30 min cycle upphase can emerge. 5 day view of the QQQQ at this Link

Tab Gilles : 9/15/2005 11:31:50 AM

Addition to previous post. Even though the $NASI has not given a weekly sell confirmation signal. I'm getting some mixed signals and going into cash, exiting the long position via Profund UltraOTC (UOPIX) fund. Again the $NASI is not a stand alone indicator. That said I'm going to stay on the side line and wait to see what happens over the next few days and watching for either a long or short signal and trade accordingly.

Linda Piazza : 9/15/2005 11:32:40 AM

The OEX and other indicators I follow are still following yesterday's pattern to a "T," which means that we all have to wait and see which way the OEX's coil breaks. It doesn't mean unequivocably that we can assume more downside as there was yesterday, but it's at least a possibility. The signs I watch have not given a long cue, which I wouldn't be taking today anyway, but I'm watching for that a sign that bearish positions should be exited. My honest feeling is that if you're in a bearish OEX play and are at all nervous on this opex Thursday, that you should just go ahead and take profits. Coils at the bottom of a decline, particularly under a neckline for a confirmed H&S, should be presumed to break to the downside, which bears want, but this coil also happens above the 200-sma and happens on an opex Thursday, so in my mind, that gives equal weighting to a break either direction.

Jeff Bailey : 9/15/2005 11:29:00 AM

Educational QQQQ updated option chain at this Link and same sort order as shown this morning.

OK Jonathan ... let's see if there wasn't enough to matter. A trader that is trading with the mindset of a market maker isn't worried about options price at this point (just less than 2-days to quarterly expiration). What we want to monitor is VOLUME in the options for the scenario we think is in play. See that volume in the $39 puts? That's the option that the market maker wants to defend. The assumption is .... a market maker of that option is "net short" or he/she has sold that option as he/she makes a market for particpants.

Now, my (Jeff Bailey's) QQQQ "Max Pain" eyeball price is $39.25. What have we seen so far today?

Perhaps a little "jolt" below WEEKLY S1/Monthly S1 correlation to $39.05, perhaps influences traders to panic and do something they shouldn't have done?

Let's test it! Was there a burst of volume at any point in time in those $39 puts? What did/has the VXN.X do intra-day? If we see the VXN.X suddenly "reverse course" from a pivot level, then perhaps we're onto something (again) regarding some Triple Witch action.

I'll test with charts in a second.

Tab Gilles : 9/15/2005 11:23:33 AM

Murphy Oil (MUR) Link

$NDX MACD SELL. Sell on closing NAV UOPIX position (refer 9/7/05 7:29AM post). Link

$SPX Link

$SOX Link

Jonathan Levinson : 9/15/2005 11:17:59 AM

The Treasury has just announced that it will issue 32B worth of 13 and 26 week bills on Monday, for a net paydown of 2.012B against the 34B maturing. This is the equivalent of an addition to liquidity from the Treasury.

Jeff Bailey : 9/15/2005 11:15:21 AM

11:00 Internals found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 9/15/2005 11:15:10 AM

Something I've never seen before from the Fed: a third repo was announced after the overnight repo announcement, with a 5-day 2B repo bringing the net add up to 2.05B for the day. The stop out rate was down to 3.58 for Treasury collateral, 3.65 for agency and 3.69 for mortgage-backed. I guess that the flat level for the day wasn't accomodative enough. Currently, IRX is down 3.2 bps at 3.313% and TNX is up 1.3 bps at 4.181%, more steepening.

Linda Piazza : 9/15/2005 11:13:29 AM

The OEX is still trailing along that Keltner line currently at 568.55. The OEX is at 568.56 as I type. Next resistance at 569.73-569.76. Next support--important support--is at 567.37-567.53. The OEX coils at the bottom of the drop off yesterday's 1:00-ish high. A coil at the bottom of a drop is presumed to likely break to the downside, but if it does, watch yesterday's low and the 200-sma for possible strong support.

Jeff Bailey : 9/15/2005 11:04:29 AM

11:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 9/15/2005 11:04:14 AM

OEX coiling so far, instead of forming a flag.

Jeff Bailey : 9/15/2005 11:01:56 AM

See how QQQQ sliced below W S1/M S1 overlap? Then sliced back above without hesitation either way? That suggests to this trader of a intra-day "bear trap" on that QQQQ dip. Now a BULL looks for a re-test of that overlap to firm, then a BULL plays the kick higher, maybe for a little triple witch to $39.50.

Jonathan Levinson : 9/15/2005 11:01:43 AM

Headlines:

[MMC] NY GRAND JURY INDICTS 8 FORMER MARSH & MCLENNAN BROKERS

[MMC] 8 CHARGED WITH SCHEME TO DEFRAUD IN 1ST DEGREE

[MMC] NY GRAND JURY CHARGES STEM FROM SPITZER INSURANCE PROBE

MMC trades -.13 at 28.75, a dime off the session low.

Jonathan Levinson : 9/15/2005 10:59:35 AM

Not enough to matter, Jeff. VXN only nominally higher, 39 puts flat.

Linda Piazza : 9/15/2005 10:59:31 AM

The OEX did bounce from the Keltner support I mentoned, but that support now weakens a bit. OEX bears would prefer that the OEX close this 15-minute period at or below the Keltner line at 568.54, with the OEX currently a little above it, at 568.79. This is the line that the OEX curled along yesterday while the advdec line began a sideways/sideways-up move at the same support it just hit.

Jeff Bailey : 9/15/2005 10:58:19 AM

VIX.X 12.42 -3.79% ...

VXN.X 15.63 +0.38% ...

Note the divergence AGAIN today, just the opposite of what we saw early yesterday. VXN eventually follow the VIX.X. Take some notes, look for a pattern. Understand the Triple Witch.

Jeff Bailey : 9/15/2005 10:56:57 AM

Jonathan! You see any action in the VXN.X and QQQQ Sep. $39 puts?

Jonathan Levinson : 9/15/2005 10:55:58 AM

QQQQ bounces sharply to the opening congestion area, volume breadth lurching upward to -1.37:1 here. 72 SMA resistance is down to 39.22, above which the trending 30 min cycle downphase will stall.

Jeff Bailey : 9/15/2005 10:53:57 AM

eBay (EBAY) $37.61 -0.05% ... stopped at $37.50 for the mm profiles.

QQQQ $39.12 -0.15% ... target achieved at $37.05 for the short from yesterday's $39.47.

Linda Piazza : 9/15/2005 10:53:21 AM

Advdec line tangled in possible support lines, but that support doesn't look as strong today as it did yesterday, so I'm not sure if this support will hold as it did temporarily yesterday, even prompting a sideways/sideways-up move in the advdec line over several hours yesterday. Still, the advdec line is trying to steady, as I suggested it might, and there's danger of a flag forming on the OEX. OEX bears would really like to see a new low below yesterday's. Right now, the evidence is iffy both ways, so if you entered today and are antsy, consider taking at least partial profit now, instead of waiting for the test of yesterday's low or the 200-sma. That gives you a little more leeway about making decisions without getting too caught up in emotion.

Jeff Bailey : 9/15/2005 10:51:45 AM

TRIN 1.01

Jeff Bailey : 9/15/2005 10:49:52 AM

I currently hold a bullish position in eBay too, but I'm not honoring the $37.50 stop in my own account today, based largely on my QQQQ thoughts. I may regret it, but look for a bounce to start for the majors at about 02:10 PM EDT.

Jonathan Levinson : 9/15/2005 10:49:26 AM

QQQQ's daily cycle has printed its first sell signal on this morning's weakness, the first such signal since July.

Linda Piazza : 9/15/2005 10:49:55 AM

Important OEX Keltner support from 567.41-567.65 on 15-minute closes. Bears would really like to see a surge down through that support. Otherwise, there's the potential for an ascending regression channel to be built beginning at yesterday's low. OEX at 567.94 as I type, with many minutes left in this current 15-minute period. It looks to me as if, without a strong sell program, that support may be strong enough for a bounce up to 568.44 (on 15-minute closes) at least, though.

Jeff Bailey : 9/15/2005 10:46:18 AM

Bearish swing trade target alert .... for the QQQQ $39.05. Close it out at target.

Jonathan Levinson : 9/15/2005 10:46:00 AM

Volume breadth has dropped to -2.64:1 for the Nasdaq and has just gone negative for the NYSE at -1.1:1. So far all of the short cycle, 30 min and 60 min oversold/buy indications ave trended lower.

Jeff Bailey : 9/15/2005 10:45:44 AM

Bullish swing trade stop alert ... for eBay (EBAY) $37.50 -0.47% ... traders could adjust a stop based on QQQQ action.

Jonathan Levinson : 9/15/2005 10:45:02 AM

Nice trade, Jeff!

Jeff Bailey : 9/15/2005 10:44:22 AM

Bearish swing trade lower stop alert on the QQQQ to $39.26. QQQQ $39.08 here.

Jeff Bailey : 9/15/2005 10:43:34 AM

Sell Program Premium .... DIA $105.50, SPX 1,227.37, QQQQ $39.10.

Linda Piazza : 9/15/2005 10:43:57 AM

Advdec line should attempt to steady right about here (-680). Support doesn't look as strong as it did yesterday, though, so I'm not certain about that.

Jonathan Levinson : 9/15/2005 10:43:04 AM

New session lows for QQQQ with both the 30 and 60 min channels declining to 39.08 here: Link

Jeff Bailey : 9/15/2005 10:42:58 AM

QQQQ $39.18 (unch) ... intra-day screen capture on 5-minute interval at this Link with QCharts' Daily and Weekly Pivot levels (know where your MONTHLY Pivot levels are too). Then I add my secret squirrel 5-minute retracement, or "5-MRT" technique. Color up my zones with yellow. You can see my pre-defined target of $39.05 at red #5, so there is "hope." If I were an options market maker I don't want those $39 puts to go in the money by Friday's close.

Linda Piazza : 9/15/2005 10:41:11 AM

If today continues to follow yesterday's pattern (no guarantee, of course, although it currently is), then we're entering that coiling period (Rolling, Rolling, Rolling, Rawhide!) that we saw yesterday. Actually on some charts, this looks weaker than yesterday's period. However, a BIG difference from yesterday's trading behavior is the OEX's proximity to the 200-sma. There's much less wiggle room below before the OEX hits historical and MA support. Another big difference is that this is opex Thursday, and this coiling behavior currently seen is of the type that often settles in about mid-morning opex Thursday and settles in for the rest of the day. Keep those factors in mind when making decisions, because they're perhaps big differences. So far, though, all works as expected for those who might have opted to enter a bearish play as the neckline was tested. Time soon to make a decision about enacting your profit-protecting plan, though. The OEX gets closer to yesterday's low and Keltner support and the advdec line moves into a zone of possible support, too, down to about -950, with it now at -400 and almost at the top of that potential support band.

Jonathan Levinson : 9/15/2005 10:36:13 AM

I agree with Keene's interpretation just posted. The intraday cycles are due, overdue actually, for some upside, but the price action has been very weak. This is compounded by the bearish action in the toppy daily cycle, and for that reason, I'm less enthusiastic about trying to catch a bounce at current levels than I will be about trying to catch a high above them.

Jonathan Levinson : 9/15/2005 10:35:05 AM

Headlines:

OCT NATGAS FALLS 1.9% TO $10.95/MLN BTUS AFTER $11.37 HIGH

U.S. NATGAS STKS UP 89 BLN CUBIC FT LAST WK: ENERGY DEPT

Jonathan Levinson : 9/15/2005 10:32:33 AM

From the EIA website:

Working gas in storage was 2,758 Bcf as of Friday, September 9, 2005, according to EIA estimates. This represents a net increase of 89 Bcf from the previous week. Stocks were 102 Bcf less than last year at this time and 98 Bcf above the 5-year average of 2,660 Bcf. In the East Region, stocks were 30 Bcf above the 5-year average following net injections of 58 Bcf. Stocks in the Producing Region were 28 Bcf above the 5-year average of 739 Bcf after a net injection of 22 Bcf. Stocks in the West Region were 40 Bcf above the 5-year average after a net addition of 9 Bcf. At 2,758 Bcf, total working gas is within the 5-year historical range.

Jonathan Levinson : 9/15/2005 10:31:47 AM

Natural gas futures dove on the release of the weekly inventory data, equities bouncing off their lows. I'm awaiting the data to post here.

Jonathan Levinson : 9/15/2005 10:22:57 AM

Stepping away for 10 minutes.

Linda Piazza : 9/15/2005 10:20:51 AM

OEX clinging to a Keltner line now at 568.63. This is the same Keltner line that it followed sideways after yesterday's initial drop, too. So far, the advdec line and the OEX are both following yesterday's pattern. Doesn't mean that it will all day, of course. Remember that we saw some steadying and even a bounce attempt that began at 10:30 yesterday, and we could today, too.

Jeff Bailey : 9/15/2005 10:20:38 AM

QQQQ $39.19 +0.02% ... noting that today's RED #6 from lower 5-mrt is $38.99. RED #5 is $39.05 and my bearish swing trade target.

Jonathan Levinson : 9/15/2005 10:20:18 AM

Volume breadth weakens, +1.2:1 on the NYSE and -1.54:1 on the Nasdaq.

Jeff Bailey : 9/15/2005 10:16:50 AM

10:00 Internals found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 9/15/2005 10:13:06 AM

OEX bears want the advdec line to stay below about +480, with the line now at +17.

Linda Piazza : 9/15/2005 10:12:23 AM

The OEX tests 568.63 Keltner support, and bears would like that support to fail on a 15-minute close. Next support at 567.31-567.80, and current bears should prepare for a possible bounce from that point. The OEX is now in a confirmed downtrend from Friday's high, but you need to remember the 567-ish historical support and the 72-ema and 200-sma support, at 567.71 and 566.81, respectively. New bears or current ones who haven't yet taken at least partial profit need to consider doing so as those levels are approached, if they are. Some conservative traders might want to take full profit and stand aside and watch the test of the 200-sma, if it should be approached, planning on getting back in if the opportunity should present itself. Depends on your style. If the OEX just keels over and plunges straight through the 200-sma, that's a different matter, although partial profit might still be taken. At this point, I'm not anticipating a straight-down plunge through the 200-sma, but then I wasn't anticipating a straight-up climb this morning, either.

Jonathan Levinson : 9/15/2005 10:10:11 AM

Session low for QQQQ at 39.17 here. 30 and 60 min channel support are holding at 39.10, which is confluence we remember from all the upside tests prior to Katrina: Link

Jeff Bailey : 9/15/2005 10:06:51 AM

10:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 9/15/2005 10:06:21 AM

Correction! I goofed on the overnight repo. It was a 10.05B overnight repo, for no net drain on the day, and the stop out rate was 3.62 for treasury collateral, not 3.65 as I mistakenly noted earlier. This is still a big step toward at 3.75% target for next week's meeting, however, and my conclusion remains unchanged.

Linda Piazza : 9/15/2005 10:05:21 AM

Advdec line falling beneath support. OEX bears want it stay there.

Jonathan Levinson : 9/15/2005 10:04:43 AM

The short cycle upphase is over for QQQQ after a dismal rise, but so far the drop off the high has been tame, no violation or challenge to yesterday's lows. Direction is still up for grabs, volume breadth +1.64:1 for the NYSE and -1.27:1 for the Nasdaq. QQQQ chart at this Link

Linda Piazza : 9/15/2005 10:01:53 AM

The advdec line hit support and is trying to steady, just as it did early yesterday. Support now about +400, with the advdec line at +549. OEX bears want the 570-571 level to hold as resistance and for the advdec line's support to fail. May take a few 15-minute periods, even if it's going to happen, which is not guaranteed.

Jeff Bailey : 9/15/2005 9:59:39 AM

10 Most Active ... NWAC $1.01 -45.98%, QQQQ $39.23 +0.12%, DAL $0.97 +36.61%, TWX $18.23 +1.78%, SPY $123.49 +0.22%, JDSU $1.75 -0.56%, MSFT $26.31 (unch), CSCO $18.01 +0.95%, INTC $24.44 -0.20%, LU $3.13 -0.63%

Jonathan Levinson : 9/15/2005 9:57:19 AM

The overnight repo was for another 5B, net drain of 5B, but driving the stop out rate up to 3.65. My guess is that this will create a bearish bias today- bonds are already weak, while equities continue to hold within yesterday's range.

Linda Piazza : 9/15/2005 9:54:42 AM

The OEX could now try to form into a flaggish type of formation and prolong the climb or strengthen it. Watching the advdec line for some clues. So far, resistance that bears would want to hold, is holding, but that strong surge this morning rather than a measured climb threw some doubt on whether the retest would show the resistance holding.

Jonathan Levinson : 9/15/2005 9:51:42 AM

QQQQ to session lows at 39.20: Link

Linda Piazza : 9/15/2005 9:50:42 AM

If you're in a bearish OEX play, either because you decided to risk an entry as the neckline of the confirmed H&S was being retested or because you held on overnight, then you want to see the advdec line drop below about 350 and hold below that level. It's 938 (QCharts) now. Those levels also change rather quickly, so don't look at this as guidance for what should happen two hours from now. You don't want the advdec line to bounce from that 350-ish level, or at least not strongly.

Jonathan Levinson : 9/15/2005 9:46:55 AM

QQQQ continue its flaggy bounce. I suspect that the Fed's repo decision is going to resolve the current uncertainty. Another drain on the shorter term money could spur a downside break if it's going to occur.

Jeff Bailey : 9/15/2005 9:46:19 AM

QQQQ option chain sorted by Sep. open interest at this Link

Linda Piazza : 9/15/2005 9:46:17 AM

The OEX also approaches the descending trendline off Tuesday's high, at about 570.10. It's hesitating at the neckline for that H&S, but it could also rise up to retest the 15-minute 100/130-ema's, at 570.73 and 570.58, respectively. If you're the type that enters automatically when a certain resistance level had been hit, with a tight stop, this is one place to consider doing so, but I'm just not yet getting the confirmation I need to suggest it to all traders.

Jonathan Levinson : 9/15/2005 9:39:14 AM

QQQQ retreats from a session high of 39.34, the wavelet cycle turning down within a choppy short cycle upphase. The 30 min channel has flattened, but has yet to turn decisively up. A higher low above 39.20 could do it, however.

Linda Piazza : 9/15/2005 9:39:31 AM

The OEX is at the neckline of that H&S. The advdec line is at a level giving a preliminary reading that it's overdone for this move . . . but it hasn't confirmed that impression. It usually does, but it didn't yesterday, just falling back all day after an initial push higher. This push higher is anything BUT a corrective move, so there's lots of conflicting evidence. I expected this push, but thought it might take longer to get started and might take longer to get to the neckline once it did get started. Yet this, up to 571, is the level I wanted to watch for a potential rollover, and I wanted the advdec line to be right where it is when I started watching for that rollover. With the surge as strong as it was, I sure would like to see some confirmation before I assumed a rollover was in the making.

Jonathan Levinson : 9/15/2005 9:32:29 AM

Volume breadth is +3.03:1 for the NYSE, -1.12:1 for the Nasdaq at the open.

Linda Piazza : 9/15/2005 9:32:17 AM

OEX immediately rises to test 568.05-568.32 Keltner resistance on 15-minute closes. It's rising more strongly than I expected (although who knows what will happen by this period's close), so it's possible but not yet certain that we'll see the retest of the neckline before a further decline. I had thought that there might be some small follow-through after a small bounce, but advised current bears to adhere to the stops they'd set, and that's still my advice.

Jonathan Levinson : 9/15/2005 9:23:12 AM

The Fed replaced 9B in 14-day repos with a mere 5B 14-day repo, the smallest I've seen in a long time. The stop out rate was 3.65 on Treasury, 3.7 on Agency and 3.73 on Mortgage-Backed collateral, showing that the drain had a serious impact and bringing these rates within spitting distance of a 3.75% overnight target if the Fed is going to raise next week. We'll see what they do with the remaining 10B unaccounted for at the 10AM announcement, but the 25 bp rate hike is looking a lot more likely than it was yesterday at this time on an open market op basis.

Jonathan Levinson : 9/15/2005 9:10:25 AM

Yesterday's decline wiped out a week's worth of gains, roughly half of the Katrina Rally. My expectation is for a daily cycle downphase from here, and on that basis am expecting that the overdue 30 and 60 min cycle upphases will be weak/corrective. The current bounce has yet to reverse the longer intraday cycles, and bulls need to see a break above 39.32-.33 to confirm that this isn't more gyration within the ongoing decline from yesterday.

Linda Piazza : 9/15/2005 9:09:17 AM

There's a nicely formed potential H&S on that RLX daily chart, too, Marc, to show what investors really think, although we all know that they're sometimes invalidated so I'm not counting my chickens (or my H&S's) before they hatch: Link

Linda Piazza : 9/15/2005 9:02:01 AM

Yesterday, the OEX broke through the neckline of the H&S formation that I've been watching: Link The 200-sma is at 566.76 as of yesterday's close with the important 100-sma below that at 566.02, so that the OEX ended just above that support and 567-ish historical support. Because of that confirmed H&S on the OEX's 15-minute chart, we'll be looking for bearish entries. The best might be on a rise up to retest the broken neckline, particularly if the 15-minute 100/130-ema's have dropped down to meet the neckline by the time it's tested. We'll see how things set up. The riskier new entry would be on a breakdown below the 200-sma, because the risk would be that the move would be a fake-out move and would then see a quick reversal that takes the OEX back up to test that neckline. Let's see what develops this morning. Futures currently suggest a flattish to slightly higher open, but I'm not yet certain whether any bounce might begin immediately or only after a dip down closer to the 200-sma. Keltner evidence suggests that a bounce might not get far and that the OEX might decline toward the 200-sma before it makes much progress in bouncing toward a retest of that neckline. Current bears should be following the OEX down with their stops, assessing their willingness to weather a retest of that neckline before they even know if it's going to hold as resistance on the retest. So far, this setup is working just as it should--beautifully shaped H&S that looked as if it required more right-shoulder work yesterday and did, a neckline break, a steep descent afterwards, all just as it should be. That doesn't mean that it will continue to perform so beautifully, so know where your account appropriate stops should be and adhere to them.

I will not be suggesting long plays on a bounce up to retest that neckline, even though such a move would take the OEX several points higher. We can all see that neckline plain and clear and there's too much risk that trapped bulls will start selling ahead of the neckline test, so that any bounce could collapse at any time. The possibility also exists that the OEX will just keep climbing above that neckline and end up invalidating the formation after all. At this point, there doesn't appear to be a big risk of that happening, but I'll look at what sets up and let you know what I see.

New bears entering on a break of the 200-sma, on hopes that the H&S downside target of 563.60 or so will be met, need to be extremely vigilant. That's a high-risk play, made higher risk now on opex Thursday.

Jonathan Levinson : 9/15/2005 8:52:44 AM

Bonds have reversed, ZN futures printing a session low just now at 111 13/64. TNX is now green, up .9 bps to 4.177%, IRX still down .8 bps at 3.337%.

Jonathan Levinson : 9/15/2005 8:51:30 AM

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- A spokesman for New York Attorney General Eliot Spitzer said an announcement will be coming later on Thursday about the ongoing probe of the insurance industry. Further details were not immediately available.

Jane Fox : 9/15/2005 8:45:12 AM

Dateline WSJ U.S. consumer prices rose last month at a slower pace than Wall Street had expected.

The consumer-price index climbed 0.5% in August, the same rate as in July, the Labor Department said Thursday. That mostly reflected rising energy prices, including gasoline. Outside of food and energy items, the inflation rate for August held steady at 0.1%, where it has been since May.

Economists had expected a 0.6% increase in the overall index and a 0.2% gain in the core index, according to a survey by Dow Jones Newswires and CNBC.

Energy prices jumped 5%, the biggest increase in more than two years. That increase accounted for more than 80% of the increase in the overall CPI, a department economist said.

Gasoline prices rose 8.3%, the biggest increase since February 2003. Food prices, however, were unchanged for the first time in nine months. Medical-care prices were unchanged after nearly 30 years of increases. Housing prices grew more slowly in August, falling to a 0.2% rate from 0.4% in July. Automobile prices fell 0.5%, half the rate of decline recorded in July.

Jonathan Levinson : 9/15/2005 8:34:16 AM

Ten year notes have firmed on the data, TNX now down 2.7 bps to 4.141%, while QQQQ holds its pre-data gains after a brief dip, currently +.08 to 39.26. Crude oil is up .325 at 65.425, gold up 3.80 to 457.5.

Jonathan Levinson : 9/15/2005 8:33:11 AM

The core CPI came in lighter than expected. Too bad we can't spend "core" dollars, net of the "volatile" food and energy inputs...

Jonathan Levinson : 9/15/2005 8:32:06 AM

Headlines:

U.S. AUG. CPI UP 0.5% AS EXPECTED

U.S. AUG. CORE CPI UP 0.1% VS. 0.2% EXPECTED

U.S. WEEKLY INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS UP 71,000 TO 398,000

WEEKLY CLAIMS DON'T REFLECT ALL KATRINA FILINGS: DOL

LARGE UPWARD REVISION TO CLAIMS LIKELY: DOL

U.S. CPI UP 3.6% YEAR-OVER-YEAR, MOST IN 4 YEARS

U.S. CORE CPI UP 2.1% YEAR-OVER-YEAR

U.S. AUG. CPI ENERGY PRICES RISE 5%

U.S. AUG. CPI SHELTER PRICES FLAT

U.S. REAL EARNINGS FALL 1.1% YEAR-OVER-YEAR

U.S. AUG. MEDICAL PRICES UNCHANGED

U.S. JULY BUSINESS INVENTORIES FALL 0.5% ON AUTOS

U.S. SEPT. EMPIRE STATE INDEX 17.0 VS 23.0 IN AUG.

U.S. SEPT. EMPIRE STATE INDEX ABOVE CONSENSUS 16.6

U.S. SEPT. NEW ORDERS INDEX 13.1 VS 33.8 IN AUG.

U.S. SEPT. EMPIRE STATE JOB INDEX 12.9 VS 10.2 IN AUG.

U.S. SEPT. EMPIRE STATE PRICES PAID INDEX 53.4 VS 29.0 AUG.

U.S. SEPT. EMPIRE STATE PRICE PAID INDEX HIGHEST SINCE MARCH

Jonathan Levinson : 9/15/2005 8:24:35 AM

The Fed has 15B in various repos to address on this expiration Thursday, when the 14-day repo is announced. As well, there is a 4B 7-day repo expiring tomorrow. The 14-day announcement is due before 9AM, the shorter-term money before 10AM.

Jonathan Levinson : 9/15/2005 8:23:03 AM

Treasuries hold light gains at the cash open, TNX quoted -1.4 bps at 4.154%, IRX +.5 bps at 3.35%.

Jonathan Levinson : 9/15/2005 8:22:29 AM

It's worth taking a moment to reflect on systemic strains during the past month, with the Katrina disaster now joined by the NWAC and DAL bankruptcies. The equity and treasury markets have proven astoundingly resilient, almost trading on a different planet from that on which these very significant events are occurring- one is hardpressed not to agree with Greenspan's comments in recent years about the resilience that derivatives have provided the various markets. Those derivatives will be discussed today in the meeting that the Fed called last month to deal with settlement and reporting issues.

Jonathan Levinson : 9/15/2005 8:16:27 AM

Natgas has launched, up 1.79% or 20 cents here at 11.365.

Jonathan Levinson : 9/15/2005 8:15:38 AM

GOOG Sept. 300 call writers are being awoken with a jolt as the stock trades 298.50, putting Mark's put play up to "umpteen-bagger" status. Here's a 5-day 3-min view of the stock, back to Friday's zone of support: Link

Jonathan Levinson : 9/15/2005 7:47:51 AM

Equities are up, ES trading 1236, NQ 1605.5, YM 10610 and QQQQ +.06 at 39.24. Gold is up .7 to 454.4, silver is up .047 to 7.088, ten year notes are up 1/16 to 111 11/32, crude oil is up .30 to 65.40 and natgas is up .045 to 11.21.

We await the 8:30 releases of the Empire State Index, est. 15.5, the CPI and Core CPI, est. .5% and .2%, Initial Claims, est. 350K, Business Inventories, est. .1%, and at noon, the Philly Fed, est. 13.3.

Linda Piazza : 9/15/2005 7:18:42 AM

In Jeff's 11:51:41 post last night, he mentioned in his answer to a reader about sell/buy program premiums that his archived articles were no longer available. On July 23, 2005, my TradersCorner article provided basic, overview-type information about fair value and sell and buy-program premium. This might provide another viewpoint or more detail than Jeff was able to provide in a post. Some sources referenced in that article discount the traders' ability to capitalize on those buy- and sell-premium programs because the discrepances in futures and cash markets are so quickly ameliorated, but as Jeff mentioned in his comment, different traders use different tools.

Linda Piazza : 9/15/2005 6:58:09 AM

Good morning. The Nikkei zoomed right underneath 13,000 last night, gaining triple digits, but other Asian markets were mixed, as are European markets this morning. As of 6:48 EST, gold was down $0.40, and crude, up $0.24. Our futures were modestly positive. More detail about Asian and European markets follows in succeeding paragraphs.

The Nikkei opened at this week's support level, at 12,817.78, and then shot higher. It closed higher by 152.53 points or 1.19%, at 12,986.78, oh-so-close to 13,000. The Nikkei closed at the high of the day and at a new year's high. Early gains in energy-related stocks helped get the day's rally started. Economic data showed that foreign investors are still buying Japanese stocks, but still some think the Nikkei's rally is a bit overdone. Bank of Japan board members have been speaking out this week, with varying opinions about when the easy monetary policy might end. Iwata appears to be one of the more optimistic ones and he reiterated last night that CPI should start rising soon, perhaps as early as next month, and that Japan could be emerging from deflation. Others appear more cautious about ending that easy monetary policy, afraid of delivering any shocks to the economic system.

Other economic news included the release of August's Consumer Confidence, up from July's 48.1 to 48.4. Improvements in the labor market outlook and household income are increasing confidence. July's index of leading economic indicators was revised lower, to 45.5 from the previous 50.0, however.

Other Asian markets were mixed. The Taiwan Weighted lost 1.08% after its central bank raised the interest rate to its highest rate in nearly four years, and South Korea's Kospi fell 0.10%. Singapore's Straits Times rose 0.19%, but Hong Kong's Hang Seng declined 0.30%. China's Shanghai Composite was flat, up 0.02 points or 0.00%. This morning, there have been renewed rumors that China will widen the yuan's trading band, but those rumors may have surfaced after the bourse's close. China also merged oil-drilling companies and refiners to form its fourth state-owned oil firm.

European markets are mixed, too, with the DAX down again this morning. Italy's Banca Popolare Italiana's decision to accept ABN's offer for its stake in rival Antonveneta SpA cheered European investors, as it ended a long takeover battle. ECB board member Mersch cautioned this morning that the rising energy costs create a worrisome scenario for growth and inflation in the Eurozone. Bank of England board member Lambert said that economic growth had been slower than anticipated this year and that inflation had been higher than expected, with the Bank of England most concerned with watching inflationary pressures when making rate-hike decisions. He said that inflationary pressures were at least in part due to crude prices, not a surprise. Later, the U.K.'s retail sales figure for August proved weaker than expected. That may prompt a good-news-is-bad-news scenario, however, as it may at least keep alive the possibility of a rate cut even if this week also saw CPI rise.

Stock-specific news in Europe included Kanaher Corp.'s announcement that it had sold its stake in Swiss measuring equipment company Leica Geosystems, with Danaher and Sweden's Hexagon both bidding for the company. U.K. reporting companies included home improvement retailer Kingfisher PLC, plummeting after its report, and clothing retailer Next PLC, easing after its report. Supermarket retailer Tesco PLC eased after SG Securities cut its former buy rating to a hold rating. SG Securities had more positive things to say about Tesco's French competitor, Carrefour, and that stock was inching higher in early trading.

As of 6:44 EST, the FTSE 100 was higher by 21.70 points or 0.41%, at 5,369.10. The CAC 40 was higher by 15.48 points or 0.35%, to 4,485.91. The DAX was lower by 8.20 points or 0.17%, to 4,902.97, but off its 4,888.79 low of the day.

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