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Tab Gilles : 9/20/2005 1:10:22 AM

+20+ Year treas Bond Fund LEH (TLT) Finding support at the 120-ema again. Link

Tab Gilles : 9/20/2005 1:09:25 AM

Nasdaq100 ($NDX)Refer to 9/15 11:23AM post Link

Looks similar to last Feb./March Link Link

Jeff Bailey : 9/20/2005 9:14:22 AM

National Hurricane Center Link

Jeff Bailey : 9/20/2005 12:24:13 AM

October Unleaded (hu05v) is up 3 cents at $2.07.

Jeff Bailey : 9/20/2005 12:23:25 AM

October Crude Oil (cl05v) is down 9 cents at $67.30.

Jeff Bailey : 9/20/2005 12:17:27 AM

NASDAQ e-mini (nq05z) with conventional (blue), a bearish 38.2% (red) and bullish 38.2% (green) retracement at this Link ... While last week's trade was what I felt (based on observation) to be an Triple Witch manipulated trade, I was somewhat more bullish headed into this morning's trade.

However, the weaker open below 1,611.75-1,617.50 somewhat cautionary and I will also admit that I was surprised that the $NASI didn't move higher and give a "buy signal."

You can see that my profiled (1/2 position) short in the QQQQ finds the nq05z in "no man's land" and overnight trade is just above the nq05z's DAILY Pivot.

As I get ready to turn in for bed, my thoughts right now are for any type of lower trade into the FOMC, I need to wake up with the nq below its daily pivot, otherwise, there's just too many shorts in the QQQQ and we'll probably gravitate higher to DAILY R1. Here's Keene's futures pivot table for tomorrow at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 9/19/2005 11:39:09 PM

Dorsey/Wright's Dow Industrials Bullish % (BPDIA) at this Link , where I've circled 4 of the six different market conditions. "Bear alert" is depicted by a bullish % that exceeds 70%, then falls below without a column of O (supply) exceeding a prior column of O. "Bear confirmed" is depicted by a column of O exceeding a column of O.

Jeff Bailey : 9/19/2005 11:10:16 PM

General Motors (GM) $31.31 -3.60% Link ... StockCharts.com's PnF chart (discounts a stock's price for payment of ordinary dividends).

General Motors (GM) $31.31 -3.60% Link ... Dorsey/Wright's PnF chart (does not discount a stock's price for payment of ordinary dividends).

QCharts' bar chart of GM at this Link

I have had a couple of questions as to why StockCharts.com and Dorseywright.com show different percentages for their bullish %.

Recent trade in GM is the perfect example of how Stockcharts.com discounts a stock's price for payment of ordinary dividend, and how that discipline can make a meaningful change in a stock's supply/demand chart.

Note how GM never traded $24.00, unless you begin to subtract the $0.50 quarterly dividends (see stockcharts' PnF chart). Begin subtracting a $0.50 quarterly dividend, and Stockcharts.com shows the stock having traded $30 (a 3-box reversal from $33)

In all, GM never generated a reversing higher PnF buy signal at $34 from a purist's point of view (see Dorsey's PnF chart).

Today, Stockcharts.com's $BPINDU = 73.33% and "bull confirmed", while Dorsey's BPDJIA = 70.00% is "bear correction". Dorsey shows Citigroup (C) $45.36 -0.19% still showing its PnF chart on a "sell signal" having traded the $43.00 in August (this chart appears correct if not discounting the stock's price for ordinary dividend) and below the $44.00 level (traded $43.80 on 04/04/05). Stockcharts.com shows the stock on a PnF buy signal still (if you subtract dividends, the 04/04/05 trade low of $43.80, falls enough to trade a low of $43.00 on the PnF chart, which was just traded again at $43.00 in August) Link

OI Technical Staff : 9/19/2005 9:59:59 PM

The Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

Disclaimer: Stocks discussed in the Market Monitor are for educational purposes only and any analysis is not meant to imply a recommendation for or against that stock. The analysts in this forum as on any other website are prohibited by the SEC from giving any specific advice to ANY individual trader. All information posted is for ALL readers and is not meant to be directed to any individual. Our analysts cannot answer any email questions regarding any specific stock. Please do not ask and please do not take offense if requests are denied.

Results posted in the Market Monitor are hypothetical and OIN does not claim that any reader achieved these exact results. Due to the lag time between research, writing, posting, uploading, reading and execution there will be differences between the actual signal given and the fill achieved by the reader. Fills may be better or worse but in most cases they will be different. The writers will make every effort to give advance notice of intended signals and indicate potential price targets. Your individual results may vary depending on your activity level and aggressiveness. This forum is intended as an education service only. Trading involves risk and should not be attempted by anyone not ready to accept this risk. By acting on any signal in this forum you agree and personally accept this risk.

Jeff Bailey : 9/19/2005 9:58:43 PM

S&P 500 Bullish % ($BPSPX) Link ... saw a net loss of 2 stocks to PnF sell signal on Monday. Still bull confirmed status at 69.40% and would need a reversing lower reading of 68% to turn "bull correction" status.

S&P 100 Bullish % ($BPOEX) Link ... this narrower bullish % saw a net loss of 1 stock to a reversing lower PnF sell signal. Still "bear confirmed" status at 67%.

NASDAQ-100 Bullish % ($BPNDX) Link ... this narrower bullish % saw a net loss of 2 stocks to a reversing lower PnF sell signal. Still "bull correction" status at 56%.

Dow Industrials Bullish % ($BPINDU) ... this very narrow (just 30 stocks) saw a net loss of 1 stock to a reversing lower PnF sell signal in Monday's action. Still "bull confirmed" status at 73.33%.

Jeff Bailey : 9/19/2005 8:09:31 PM

December Fed Funds Futures (ff05z) currently predict two more rate hikes over next three meetings.

Seems to be a "mixed view" from news media, but Fed Funds (not just December) depict a market that is expecting a 25 bp rate hike tomorrow, and a FOMC statement that it may take a "wait and see" approach into early November.

Here's a chart of December with retracement brackets of 10% probability levels. Current Fed Funds are 3.5%, so 25 bp hike would be 3.75%. Chart at this Link ...

In my opinion (based on observations) the equity markets would be negatively surprised if the Fed were to raise 25 bp AND give no hint/suggestion that it will go on hold near-term (November), with special mention of Katrina's impact.

The terrorist attacks of 09/11/2001 had the FOMC cutting rates 50 bp to 3.0% on 09/17/2001 Link , but I think it is important for traders and investors to remember that the financial district was a target of those attacks, and may have pushed the FOMC to pump greater liquidity into the system.

Hurricane Katrina, and an approaching Rita (impact/damage will not be known by tomorrow afternoon) appears to have market participants still expecting a 25 bp hike to 3.75%, but that sharp rise in Fed Funds futures just after Katrina, gives the impression that market participants also expect some type of commentary from the FOMC that it isn't "so focused on raising rates," to understand the possible risks of near-term economic slowing as energy prices provide a tax on the economy.

Jeff Bailey : 9/19/2005 6:50:25 PM

NYSE Summation Index ($NYSI) Link looks to be following the $NASI.

Today's action for the NYSE's NH/NL ratio Link had the five day ratio slipping lower to register a 74% entry. It would currently take a 78% reading for the more intermediate-term 10-day (still in column of X at 84%) to reverse lower.

The very broad NYSE Composite Bullish % ($BPNYA) Link is still "bear correction" status and would take a reading of 66% to reverse lower to "bear confirmed."

Note: The $BPNYA is from www.stockcharts.com and will be different from those readings from www.dorseywright.com as Stockcharts.com discounts a stock's historical price for any dividend distribution (if you paid $65.00 for a stock 52-weeks ago with an annual dividend of $1.00, then you didn't pay income tax on that dividend, but have a cost basis of $64.00, which the stock may, or may not have ever traded). Dorsey/Wright and Associates does not discount a stock paying a normal dividend (if you paid $65.00 for a stock 52-weeks ago with an annual dividend of $1.00, then you paid $65 for that stock, recieved $1.00 in income, paid taxes on that $1.00 per share, but still have a cost basis of $65.00)

Jeff Bailey : 9/19/2005 6:07:48 PM

NASDAQ Sumation Index ($NASI) Link gives another "sell signal" today.

Today's action for the NASDAQ's NH/NL ratio Link has its five-day ratio reversing lower. It would currently take a 66% reading for the 10-day (still in column of X) to reverse lower. These readings combined suggest a defensive posture.

The very broad NASDAQ Composite Bullish % ($BPCOMPQ) Link is still "bear correction" status at 52.80% and would need a reading of 50% to reverse back lower to "bear confirmed" status.

It would be my supply/demand analysis that as long as the $NASI is falling, it will be difficult for the $BPCOMPQ to rise.

Jeff Bailey : 9/19/2005 5:03:53 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles found at this Link ... Today's Activity ... Bearish swing trade stopped on the short position in shares of Valero Energy (VLO) at an adjusted stop of $110.50 (-$2.40, or -2.22%).

Bearish swing trade shorted 1/2 position in the QQQQ at $39.03, stop is at $39.26, targeting $38.65.

Jeff Bailey : 9/19/2005 5:12:39 PM

Closing U.S. Market Watch found at this Link ... October Crude Oil futures (cl05v) settled up $4.39, or +6.97% at $67.39, October Heating Oil futures (ho05v) settled up $0.20, or +10.96% at $2.038. October Unleaded Gas futures (hu05v) settled up $0.257, or +14.43% at $2.043.

Jeff Bailey : 9/19/2005 4:52:50 PM

Closing Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 9/19/2005 4:35:39 PM

Pivot Matrix for Tuesday at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 9/19/2005 4:05:45 PM

QQQQ goes out at $39.09 -0.78% ... tomorrow's DAILY Pivot Levels ... $38.66, $38.87, Piv= $39.13, $39.34, $39.60.

Note correlative MONTHLY Pivot/Daily Pivot of $39.13. Tomorrow's DAILY S2 ($38.66) is correlative with my neckline of the reverse h/s pattern. This is also very close to my current 1/2 position short target of $38.65.

Linda Piazza : 9/19/2005 3:49:29 PM

Bears want the SOX to close the day below its 50-sma at 469.97 and bulls want a close above it. SOX at 468.24 as I type.

Jonathan Levinson : 9/19/2005 3:49:23 PM

QQQQ's short cycle indicators are approaching overbought territory but still have room to run, while the 30 min channel turns up within the flattening 60 min cycle channel. 30 min channel resistance is 39.10, 60 min resistance 39.15. Bulls need to hold above 39.01, the 72 SMA, to give these longer cycles time to turn: Link

Linda Piazza : 9/19/2005 3:48:03 PM

First Keltner resistance didn't hold on the OEX, but the 5-minute 100/130-ema's are, so far. They're at 570.12 and 570.18, respectively. Make your end-of-day decisions, soon, if you haven't already.

Linda Piazza : 9/19/2005 3:41:27 PM

Most of the day, the OEX has been finding resistance on 15-minute closes at a Keltner line currently at 569.33, with the OEX now just cents below that. Stronger resistance is just above 570, but a fear of just such a bounce from the OEX's Keltner support, currently at 568.29, is what led me to go ahead and get out. So far, as long as 15-minute closes are beneath that line at 569.33, they hint that support might be retested, but we're going to run out of day to do that soon. End of day decision? Factor in FOMC tomorrow and the near approach to the 72-ema and 200-sma today into that decision. That's why I exited.

Jeff Bailey : 9/19/2005 3:40:12 PM

Hewlett Packard (HPQ) $28.78 +1.51% Link ... new 52-weeker at the big board (Dow component) and achieves its PnF bullish vertical count today!

Meanwhile ....

Dell Computer (DELL) $34.26 -1.72% Link ... continues to trade weak at bullish support trend.

Jonathan Levinson : 9/19/2005 3:33:42 PM

QQQQ break above 72 SMA resistance at 39.01 for the first time today, stalling the 30 min channel downphase. But that wall of confluence resistance remains from 39.08-39.14. Link

Jeff Bailey : 9/19/2005 3:30:54 PM

QQQQ $38.97 -1.09% ... still off its lows of $38.91 found at 02:30 PM EDT.

Jeff Bailey : 9/19/2005 3:28:53 PM

S&P 100 (OEX.X) 568.39 -0.86% ... gets the trade at WEEKLY S1.

Linda Piazza : 9/19/2005 3:23:22 PM

The RLX has definitely confirmed its H&S on its daily chart, and it dropped strongly below the 200-sma and -ema's, too. It has not, however, dropped soundly beneath the late June swing low of 435.79, but instead hovers just below it, at further potential support at 434.50 or so. The RLX has been extended for a long, long time on the 15-minute Keltner chart, with the RLX today testing the daily Keltner support (435.81 on a daily close) that could send it into a bounce attempt, to retest that broken neckline. There's no guarantee that will happen, but remain watchful for an RLX bounce and for the way it might act on a retest of its 200-sma if it does bounce.

Linda Piazza : 9/19/2005 3:18:29 PM

At this point, OEX bears should be following the OEX lower with their stops, being careful not to let a bounce get too big and strip you of your bearish profits. This candle for the day (so far) is obviously anything but bullish, but the OEX is settling into one of those consolidation zones that it's oh-so-good at producing. It's good at producing them either just above or just below the 72-ema, too, with that average at 567.89. There's the 200-sma at 566.86 just below, too, so unless there's going to be a real whoosh down to close the OEX below those averages, bearish gains might slow now. We can't predict what will happen with MOC orders. There could be that whoosh, but I'd be taking at least partial profit now, if you haven't already. In fact, there's no "I'd be" to my decision. I have already taken full profit and will sit out the rest of the day. I haven't yet seen a long setup, and am not sure I'd feel comfortable with it just yet. Have to see it when it develops.

Jeff Bailey : 9/19/2005 3:13:42 PM

03:00 Internals found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 9/19/2005 3:08:12 PM

Slight short cycle bullish divergences on the oversold QQQQ oscillators, but price continues to feel heavy. The 30 min cycle is down at levels from which it would usually bounce, but the 60 min cycle has plenty of room to run, and the combination often results in sideways consolidative chop. The light QQQQ volume today and the anticipated slow grind toward the FOMC announcement tomorrow only add to the confusion, but my guess is for a bounce from this setup, which I will be looking to take as a short entry.

Jonathan Levinson : 9/19/2005 3:05:30 PM

Headlines:

OCT NATGAS CLOSES AT $12.663/MLN BTUS, UP 13.6%

NATURAL-GAS FUTURES CLOSE AT AN ALL-TIME HIGH

Jeff Bailey : 9/19/2005 3:03:20 PM

03:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 9/19/2005 3:01:19 PM

OEX Keltner target and potentially strong support is at 568.45 on 15-minute closes. As long as the OEX maintains 15-minute closes beneath the Keltner line currently at 569.70, that target will be maintained, but be aware that the OEX is now testing Friday's gap and top-of-the-gap, middle-of-the-gap and bottom-of-the-gap support could all figure in here. Protect bearish profits. Unless there's a whoosh down, trading could get choppy through here. I personally have just exited my bearish position, willing to forego possible further gains.

Linda Piazza : 9/19/2005 2:49:28 PM

The OEX is testing the top of the gap from Friday morning. Careful, bears, as gap support could exist anywhere through here.

Linda Piazza : 9/19/2005 2:48:38 PM

OEX bears want another new LOD, or there's the chance that the OEX could try to form another bear flag and climb higher. We saw a doji on the last 15-minute candle, just completed. Next Keltner resistance on 15-minute closes is at 569.72, with further resistance at 570.33-570.42. Advdec line suggests more downside is possible. The advdec line is showing that the move is getting extended to the downside, however, without yet showing that it's time to switch to a long position. Just be careful and protective of bearish profits here.

Jonathan Levinson : 9/19/2005 2:43:54 PM

Crude oil closed +4.35 at 67.35, off a high of 67.40. Natgas closed +1.495 at 12.64, 4.5 cents off the high.

Jonathan Levinson : 9/19/2005 2:40:26 PM

We now have the 30 min cycle in oversold territory, but there are no bullish divergences on the short cycle indicators as of yet. Link

Linda Piazza : 9/19/2005 2:35:38 PM

OEX resistance now at 569.77-570.34, and then at 571.16.

Jonathan Levinson : 9/19/2005 2:34:20 PM

Headlines:

HOMELAND SECURITY DEPT: OFFICE TO BE RUN BY MATTHEW JADACKI

HOMELAND SECURITY DEPT TO ESTABLISH KATRINA OVERSIGHT OFFICE

Jeff Bailey : 9/19/2005 2:28:00 PM

Dow Diamonds (DIA) $105.27 -0.90% and Dow Industrials (INDU) 10,536 -0.99% ... now find trade at their WEEKLY S1.

SPX 1,228.93 -0.72%, SPY $122.80 -0.56% and OEX 569.13 -0.73% have yet to trade their respective WEEKLY R1. High probability they will though.

Linda Piazza : 9/19/2005 2:26:52 PM

Current OEX downside target is 568.53. That's the bottom of that same old Keltner channel that usually supports the OEX. If you're in a bearish position and haven't taken partial profits yet, you might consider doing so as this level is tested, and keep the 567-ish historical S/R level in mind, too, if the OEX should continue lower. The important 72-ema is at 567.85 and the 200-sma at 566.86. OEX at 569.03 as I type, trying to bounce again.

Jonathan Levinson : 9/19/2005 2:22:11 PM

Headline:

RITA NEARING HURRICANE STRENGTH OVER CENTRAL BAHAMAS - NHC

Jonathan Levinson : 9/19/2005 2:20:09 PM

QQQQ's 30 min and 60 min channel bottoms line up at 38.96, 6 cents above the 50 day EMA. The weakness of that short cycle upphase has complicated the picture enormously- it would have been much easier to enter short at the top of a short cycle rise than in the middle of a corrective sideways range above support.

Jeff Bailey : 9/19/2005 2:18:05 PM

02:00 Internals found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 9/19/2005 2:18:02 PM

New LOD for the OEX, but it keeps trying to bounce.

Linda Piazza : 9/19/2005 2:15:10 PM

There's a tentative bounce on the OEX after it came within 5 cents of the previous LOD. The advdec line indicates more downside is possible, but OEX bears don't want this bounce to get much above 570.15 or so and certainly want the OEX to stay below 570.51 on 15-minute closes. Next resistance above that is near 571.

Linda Piazza : 9/19/2005 2:11:22 PM

Current OEX LOD is 569.63. Bears want to see the OEX quickly move below that, now that it's violated the bear flag's support. They do not want to see a quick bounce from that previous LOD. OEX dropped to 569.69 while I typed.

Jonathan Levinson : 9/19/2005 2:11:01 PM

QQQQ's short cycle is rolling over here after a pathetic upphase, QQQQ back to 39.00. Natgas, crude oil and ten year notes are all making session highs.

Jonathan Levinson : 9/19/2005 2:04:07 PM

Correction: I wrongly stated that the Fed auctioned 28B in 3- and 6-month bills. It was actually 32B, and so the foreign central bank participation was less notable than I had initially thought. The 8.7B was roughly average, not strongly above as I'd initially thought.

Jeff Bailey : 9/19/2005 2:01:52 PM

02:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 9/19/2005 1:59:32 PM

TRIN 1.00 +33.33% ...

QQQQ $39.07 -0.83% ... break of session lows (DAILY S2) could bring further selling to WEEKLY S2.

Linda Piazza : 9/19/2005 1:49:30 PM

The OEX's 15-minute 100/130-ema's are at 570.43 and 570.38, respectively, and the five-minute versions are at 570.61 and 570.56, respectively, joining their resistance to Keltner resistance. I'd now be watching the trendline off the day's low for a trendline break, as a sign that the bear flag's support was breaking, but it's going to take a new LOD to make it look as if the OEX is actually confirming that neckline for a H&S on the 15-minute chart. Sure would have felt better about the downside if there'd been a rise a bit higher before a breakdown.

Jonathan Levinson : 9/19/2005 1:46:00 PM

QQQQ's 30 min channel bottom is ticking up as price edges closer to the declining 72 SMA at 39.08. That 39.08-39.14 area should be very heavy resistance, and so far QQQQ is limping towards it- but if the 30 min cycle starts to turn up, then it could fuel a stronger bounce. This is a tricky spot here. Link

Linda Piazza : 9/19/2005 1:43:56 PM

Stop-running time of day approaching. Of course, with the FOMC meeting tomorrow, there's the possibility that this sideways movement could just go on and on and on. If there is a stop-running move, OEX bears would prefer that the advdec line stay under about -1400. It's at -1813 as I type, on QCharts.

Jonathan Levinson : 9/19/2005 1:42:06 PM

Volume breadth -1.84:1 for the NYSE, -2.46:1 for the Nasdaq.

Linda Piazza : 9/19/2005 1:38:00 PM

The OEX has traded sideways long enough to invalidate the potential inverse H&S and turn it into a coil at the bottom of a decline. Those usually resolve to the downside, but watch for the potential for a quick stop-running move up to the right-shoulder level near 571.50 or perhaps a little higher. OEX Keltner resistance still suggests that it will be difficult for the OEX to produce 15-minute closes that high, at least.

Jonathan Levinson : 9/19/2005 1:31:13 PM

Ten year notes are firming, TNX down to a 2.7 bp loss at 4.235%. There's support from 4.22% to 4.2%.

Jonathan Levinson : 9/19/2005 1:26:35 PM

QQQQ's short cycle upphase is losing it here, stalling at the midpoint of its upphase and well below overbought territory. This is more corrective than I expected it to be, but the 30 min channel is moderating its decline as well. Cycles aside, a break of the session lows should see a sharp continuation of the selling as the collective dip buyers of the past 2 hours hit the silk- but until it does, the short cycle bias remains to the upside, however corrective it may be: Link

Linda Piazza : 9/19/2005 1:26:23 PM

The OEX still hasn't been able to make it above that gathering Keltner resistance from 570.28-570.97 on 15-minute closes. It remains vulnerable to 568.62 according to the 15-minute chart. The rise of the LOD still looks bear flaggish.

Jonathan Levinson : 9/19/2005 1:22:41 PM

Updated storm flight-path projections at this Link

Jane Fox : 9/19/2005 1:19:15 PM

Dateline WSJ Tropical Storm Rita, expected to become a hurricane, threatened Florida, the Gulf of Mexico and Gulf coast cities still reeling from Hurricane Katrina, including New Orleans, where some residents returned today.

Rita, which is expected to grow into a Category One hurricane early this week, passed the Bahamas and made a beeline for the Florida Keys. Tourists were ordered to evacuate early this morning, and shortly thereafter residents were sent packing, too. Gov. Jeb Bush declared a state of emergency. The storm is on a course to head into the Gulf this week. According to the National Hurricane Center, its next land target will most likely be Houston, which just weeks ago accepted tens of thousands of evacuees from areas devastated by Katrina. Hurricane tracks are extremely unpredictable; the range of potential landing sites extends from Mexico in the south to Mississippi and Alabama in the north. But some recent models indicate there is a good chance the storm could hit Louisiana late this week. If the storm were to spend much time over warm Gulf waters, it could gain strength, as Katrina did before hitting the Gulf coast late last month.

Jeff Bailey : 9/19/2005 1:14:33 PM

Bearish swing trade short alert for 1/2 position in the QQQQ $39.03 -0.93% here, stop $39.26, target $38.65.

Jonathan Levinson : 9/19/2005 1:13:00 PM

The 91-day bill auction sold for 3.495% yielding 3.575%, and set a bid to cover ratio of 2.25. The 182-day bills sold for 3.715% with a yield of 3.839%, bid to cover lower at 2.11. Foreign central banks purchased a strong 8.7B of the 28B total.

Jeff Bailey : 9/19/2005 1:11:36 PM

01:00 Internals found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 9/19/2005 1:07:16 PM

OEX currently testing 570.41-570.98 Keltner resistance. OEX at 570.38. I've been watchful all day for the possibility that the OEX could rise into a right shoulder for its current possible regular H&S, and a bounce to test the upper edge of that resistance would fit with that possibility. Not sure that it will rise that far, but it looks more possible than it did earlier. Use the five-minute 100/130-ema's, at 570.69 and 570.61, as benchmarks that the OEX is confirming the inverse H&S on the five-minute chart.

Jonathan Levinson : 9/19/2005 1:05:16 PM

The Nasdaq tested the 50 day EMA at 2147 today, which supported last week's low as well. Today's action violated that low, but only slightly. With a new daily cycle downphase now in progress, every 30/60 min cycle top should set a relatively lower high, and should provide good entries for shorts. Daily Nasdaq chart at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 9/19/2005 1:01:52 PM

01:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 9/19/2005 12:56:03 PM

Natgas holds a 1.24 or 11.13% gain here at 12.385, crude oil +3.5 at 66.50, a 5.56% gain today. TNX holds at 4.247%- the results of the 3- and 6-month bill auctions are due in the next few minutes.

Linda Piazza : 9/19/2005 12:50:59 PM

If that little inverse H&S I've been watching confirms, it will have an upside target somewhere near 571.25-571.50, so near the level appropriate for a right-shoulder for the larger H&S visible on the 15-minute chart. To confirm, it has to get through the 15-minute 100/130-ema's and Keltner resistance up to 571.02 on 15-minute closes, however. Right now, that resistance looks strong enough to turn the OEX lower, so I'm not certain the OEX will get that right-shoulder formation for the H&S.

Jonathan Levinson : 9/19/2005 12:46:11 PM

QQQQ's 72 SMA is down to 39.11 as the short cycle upphase ticks higher, but so far the action is flaggy and corrective: Link

Jane Fox : 9/19/2005 12:41:46 PM

Dateline WSJ Former Tyco executives Dennis Kozlowski and Mark Swartz were sentenced to eight and one-third to 25 years in prison and ordered to pay heavy fines for stealing millions from the company.

Linda Piazza : 9/19/2005 12:37:50 PM

The OEX's Keltner resistance, currently from 570.41-571.14, did hold on the first test in the previous 15-minute period. The OEX appears to be trying to pull up here, ahead of the previous LOD, perhaps into a bear-flag. If so, it could perhaps climb higher into that resistance. There's a small inverse H&S on the five-minute chart, with the OEX trying to round up now into a right shoulder, but we have competing formations all over the place. If this little inverse H&S confirms and rises, that rise could be just part of the right shoulder that I've been wary about for the larger regular H&S on the 15-minute chart.

Linda Piazza : 9/19/2005 12:25:34 PM

The SOX is bouncing toward the 50-sma from the underside again, with the SOX at 468.99 as I type, and the 50-sma at 469.98. The former ascending trendline off the early August low is currently being retested, too. Bears want that 50-sma to serve as resistance now.

Jonathan Levinson : 9/19/2005 12:19:53 PM

Need to step away for half an hour here.

Jeff Bailey : 9/19/2005 12:16:37 PM

12:00 Internals found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 9/19/2005 12:12:14 PM

QQQQ break the prior 39.05 high here and is now testing the bottom of the 39.10 support zone. This is a confluence area from weeks past in both directions. Above 39.10, the new short cycle upphase will confirm as more than just another trending blip.

Linda Piazza : 9/19/2005 12:11:46 PM

OEX may be trying to bounce, finally. Keltner resistance at 570.42-570.67 looks fairly strong, but a right-shoulder rise would more likely take the OEX up to 571.50-572. Not sure it can get there.

Jeff Bailey : 9/19/2005 12:03:37 PM

12:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 9/19/2005 11:59:44 AM

Ten year notes have pulled just off their session highs, TNX down 1.5 bps at 4.247% and back below 4.26% support. Crude oil and natgas are holding the bulk of their gains, however, and equities remain very weak despite the deeply oversold short cycle indicators. Volume breadth is -2.21:1 for the Nasdaq, -1.6:1 for the NYSE.

Linda Piazza : 9/19/2005 11:58:52 AM

Although just off its LOD, the SOX did fall below its 50-sma at 469.95, with the 30-sma also nearby at 469.78. The SOX is at 467.63 as I type, approaching potential daily Keltner support at 466.19 on daily closes.

Jeff Bailey : 9/19/2005 11:56:05 AM

Current OPEN MM Profiles found at this Link ... We were stopped out of the Valero Energy (VLO) $111.63 +3.31% swing trade short this morning at $110.50 ($-2.40, or -2.22%)

Linda Piazza : 9/19/2005 11:50:46 AM

Although I see stronger potential for a bounce building as the OEX approaches 569.60-ish support, Keltner and other resistance strengthens from 570.43-570.75 on a 15-minute closing basis. That won't make much of a right-shoulder, will it? Further resistance is at 571.62 and that's a more likely area for a right shoulder. I'm just not sure, with all that resistance building, that the OEX will get that high even if a bounce does begin. The evidence for a bounce comes from historical support being tested as well as potential support being reached on the advdec line, at -2100, with the advdec line now at -1966 on QCharts. This isn't absolute, no-doubt-in-the-world evidence, but it does suggest that bears should be protecting their profits and assessing their willingness to weather a bounce into a right shoulder, if it should occur.

Jonathan Levinson : 9/19/2005 11:45:29 AM

QQQQ is bouncing from just above S2 at 38.95, a break below lower 30 and 60 min channel support. That should have been a terminal move for the extended short cycle downphase, and the corrective bounce is now overdue. Bears remain in control of this action, however, and any bounce below 39.10 support is just noise. I am hoping for a short cycle upphase to provide a bounce on which to load short. Link

Linda Piazza : 9/19/2005 11:41:44 AM

OEX has created that 568.55 downside target, but I'm still wary of a possible bounce. The advdec line finally approaches potential support, too. If the OEX should bounce, I'll be watching for a right-shoulder rollover potential, but would like to see the advdec line still negative before I considered a rollover bearish entry. Current bears--you might consider taking partial profit at the current level. The OEX is approaching keel-over level or a bounce potential.

Jeff Bailey : 9/19/2005 11:38:56 AM

QQQQ $39.00 -1.06% ... there was a nasty "bad tick" that went down to $37.30, with the bad tick found as QQQQ was trading $39.11-$39.16. That might not have been a key punch error, and $37.30 is way down near MONTHLY S2.

Jonathan Levinson : 9/19/2005 11:36:48 AM

Session lows across the board, QQQQ to 39.00 and testing 30 min channel support, well below 60 min support 10 cents above. Link

Linda Piazza : 9/19/2005 11:35:10 AM

The OEX's 50-sma is at 570.19, with the OEX at 570.29 as I type.

Linda Piazza : 9/19/2005 11:29:25 AM

I was afraid of a bounce on the OEX, so every little jot higher reinforces that worry. There was a temporary bounce back across the 15-minute 100/130-ema's, at 570.50 and 570.42, respectively. If the OEX were to hold above them, it may have a chance of rising higher, but there's Keltner resistance at 570.78 and 571.13, too. As I typed, the OEX sank back below those averages, so they're holding so far, and this so far doesn't look like the right-shoulder rise that I've been fearing (on behalf of current bears). Symmetry suggests that such a rise is still possible, while other evidence suggests the OEX might still have more downside before there's a substantial bounce.

Jeff Bailey : 9/19/2005 11:22:08 AM

Friday's Internals found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 9/19/2005 11:21:13 AM

QQQQ continues to test 39.10 support, some small potential bullish divergences forming in the short cycle indicators. Again, with the longer intraday cycles pointing south with room to run, any pop in the short cycle should be corrective only. Link

Jeff Bailey : 9/19/2005 11:21:02 AM

11:00 Internals found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 9/19/2005 11:20:39 AM

The OEX has now set a tentative downside target of 568.62, but it's tentative only because the close beneath the Keltner line currently at 570.44 was only a minimal close beneath that level. The advdec line says otherwise, and suggests that the downside target could be reached or at least that there could be a lower low still in the making for the OEX. Former support is now trying to firm up as resistance, with that resistance forming from 570.44-471.10 on 15-minute closes. Bears would like to see the OEX close 15-minute periods below the topmost of those lines, at least, but I'm still worried about the possibility of a right-shoulder rise. Keltner and advdec line evidence says lower before we see a rise into a right shoulder (although it doesn't preclude a lesser rise), but I'm still cautious in my outlook. Just telling you what I see.

Linda Piazza : 9/19/2005 11:11:11 AM

OEX bears now want to see the OEX quickly sink beneath 569.76, the last swing low on the 15-minute chart (from Friday).

Linda Piazza : 9/19/2005 11:10:30 AM

SOX still below the 50-sma. The TRAN has bounced from its sub-3600 LOD, however, and is currently at 3613.07, a few points below its 100-sma at 3618.66. The RLX has given up the test of the 200-sma and -ema, and now sinks toward a test of the late-June low of 435.79, with the RLX now at 438.56. It does look as if it's confirmed that H&S on the daily chart now. The DOW sinks toward the 200-sma at 10,542.09, with the DOW at 10,568.44 and having erased most of Friday's gains already. Looks like more weakness below, and the OEX is currently testing the 15-minute 100/130-ema's and 570 round-number support. The advdec line suggests more downside is possible, with OEX bears now wanting to see a 15-minute close beneath a Keltner line currently at 570.45 to set a downside target of 568.61. I personally believe that OEX bears need to recognize possible vulnerability to a bounce into another right-shoulder test, but so far, the OEX has looked too weak to do much testing of overhead levels.

Jonathan Levinson : 9/19/2005 11:09:45 AM

Dec. gold has broken the Dec 2004 contract high, now up 8.1 at a session high of 471.40.

Jonathan Levinson : 9/19/2005 11:07:44 AM

New highs for crude, now +5.79%. Natgas is up 12.61% here. 100 tick chart of crude at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 9/19/2005 11:04:28 AM

11:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 9/19/2005 11:03:20 AM

A bad tick just printed to 37.30 QQQQ. Quotetracker users can zap it by clicking the chart and pressing ctrl-shift-L a couple of times.

Linda Piazza : 9/19/2005 11:02:15 AM

The OEX again approaches the 15-minute 100/130-ema's at 570.51 and 570.42, but if that was a right shoulder rise, it was awfully stunted. The possibility exists that we haven't seen the right shoulder form yet, and that the last rise was just part of the head formation. Watch for potential support again at these 15-minute 100/130-ema's or perhaps from closer to 569.60-570 and then a rise into a right shoulder. However, a 15-minute close beneath the Keltner line currently at 570.44 sets up a potential 568.64 downside target, with this being the bottom of the Keltner channel that usually supports the OEX. It certainly looks as if it needs a bigger right shoulder, though, so I'm a bit leery of the chances of it keeling over right here. If it does, you know what the levels are.

Jeff Bailey : 9/19/2005 11:00:43 AM

QQQQ $39.14 ... should go $39.00 pretty quick.

Jonathan Levinson : 9/19/2005 10:59:29 AM

Session high for crude oil +4.21% at 65.675. Frankly, I'm astounded at the strength in equities given these big rallies in energy- enough so that I hesitate to initiate shorts without a spike up on which to do it. I might be speaking too soon- equities printing new lows here.

Jonathan Levinson : 9/19/2005 10:53:09 AM

No improvement for volume breadth despite the price bounce, still -1.81:1 for the Nasdaq and -1.41:1 for the NYSE.

Linda Piazza : 9/19/2005 10:44:15 AM

SOX just below the 50-sma at 469.99, with the SOX at 469.18. SOX bears want it to keel over from here. SOX bulls want a bounce from this support.

Linda Piazza : 9/19/2005 10:41:54 AM

First Keltner resistance for the OEX is now at 571.72 on 15-minute closes, with next resistance above that at 572.87-573.01. While the OEX is retracing part of today's losses, bears would like to see the advdec line remain in the -1100 range or at least remain negative.

The right-shoulder level for the potential H&S on the OEX's five- and fifteen-minute charts is at about 571.50-572 or perhaps a little higher since the neckline slants slightly upward.

Jonathan Levinson : 9/19/2005 10:41:15 AM

QQQQ breaks back above 39.20, testing 39.25 confluence from below. So long as price holds 39.20 support, the short cycle indicators should continue to turn back up for a new upphase. However, that upphase should be corrective within the 30 min cycle downphase.

Jonathan Levinson : 9/19/2005 10:38:06 AM

Session high for Dec. gold at 469.50, +6.20.

Jonathan Levinson : 9/19/2005 10:36:29 AM

Volume breadth has deteriorated to -1.38:1 for the NYSE and -1.71:1 for the Nasdaq. So far no bounce for QQQQ, still holding onto 39.20 support but unable to break back above it. Link

Tab Gilles : 9/19/2005 10:36:26 AM

Tropical Storm Rita is causing concern on the oil markets today pushing oil up $2 per bbl.

Murphy Oil (MUR) followup to Friday's BUY call on MUR. Link Link Link Link MUR gapped up to the 38.2 % retracement today.

Linda Piazza : 9/19/2005 10:32:10 AM

The OEX hit that Keltner support I've been mentioning earlier and also the 15-minute 100/130-ema's. It should be time for a bounce, although a little further testing of support first wouldn't be surprising. It's going to take either some chopping around long enough to soften up that support (perhaps after a bear-flag rise?) or else strong burst lower, which I wouldn't rule out yet with the character of today's trading, to get the OEX through that support, it appears, but on 15-minute closes beneath a line currently at 570.42, it has little Keltner support until about 568.60. For now, the Keltner chart suggests that the bounce or else a sideways consolidation is more likely, while the five-minute chart suggests that the bounce is currently corrective and is liable to fail at any time.

Linda Piazza : 9/19/2005 10:27:41 AM

Lots of indices are perched right on strong S/R, or, actually, some just below it, but still in testing range: RLX just below the 200-sma, SOX at the 50-sma, Dow just below 10,600, TRAN just above 3600 and just below the 50% retracement of its rally off the late-June low. We're paused on the edge of the precipice here, and it may take some choppy stuff to settle it down and decide on direction.

Jonathan Levinson : 9/19/2005 10:26:39 AM

Pretty weak bounce so far, but the short cycle indicators are trying to bottom out: Link

Linda Piazza : 9/19/2005 10:23:53 AM

I think the RLX has confirmed its H&S on its daily chart, a big one that begin forming in late May or early June, with about a 50-point rise into the head. However, the RLX is certainly not falling steeply after confirming that H&S with a slightly ascending neckline. It may take a decline below the late-June low 435.79 to get anything much started to the downside, but until there's a precipitous fall away from the neckline, there's the possibility that the neckline is drawn incorrectly (roughly congruent with the 200-sma) or that bears aren't as much in control as OEX and RLX bears would hope. RLX at 440.58 as I type, just below the 200-sma and -ema.

Jonathan Levinson : 9/19/2005 10:21:34 AM

The first half hour's CBOE total put to call ratio was .67, with the realtime total p/c ratio reported here by Interquote at .82.

Jeff Bailey : 9/19/2005 10:21:05 AM

10:00 Internals found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 9/19/2005 10:17:49 AM

Latest storm forecasts at this Link

Linda Piazza : 9/19/2005 10:17:37 AM

TRAN testing 3600, at 3698.95. Last Thursday's low was 3572.65, with the 200-ema currently at 3576.30. Bulls want 3600 or at least last week's low to hold; bears don't.

Jonathan Levinson : 9/19/2005 10:16:13 AM

Crude oil and natgas still rising, at new session highs of 65.20 and 12.29.

Linda Piazza : 9/19/2005 10:16:12 AM

Ongoing SOX test of the 50-sma. Bulls don't want this to fail; bears do.

Linda Piazza : 9/19/2005 10:13:17 AM

The OEX stopped at the 15-minute 100/130-ema's at 570.47 and 570.39, respectively. There's the potential for another H&S on the 15-minute chart, with a rise into the 571.50-572 level a potential rise into a right shoulder. We've had a bigger H&S, confirmed last Thursday, an inverse H&S, confirmed on Friday, and now this potential H&S, so are you going to trust these to confirm or meet their targets? I wouldn't, but they're still helpful at showing short-term sentiment.

Jonathan Levinson : 9/19/2005 10:12:14 AM

QQQQ is now testing 39.20 confluence support, breaking it as I type. Price is now on 30 and 60 min support: Link

Linda Piazza : 9/19/2005 10:11:29 AM

So far, OEX support isn't holding, but the 570.40 bottom of that support band and the 570 round-number levels are being approached. The "b" distribution pattern suggests a downside target nearer 569.20, and I'd certainly have profit-protecting plans, including perhaps taking partial profit on a short-term bearish play, between 569.60-570.00, if reached.

Linda Piazza : 9/19/2005 10:09:27 AM

New LOD for the OEX, suggesting that was a "b" distribution and that bears might not get their early bounce and rollover for a new entry. Current bears or those who just jumped in at the open don't mind, but those left twiddling their numbers do. First support at 570.40-571.20 is being testing as I type, and current bears need to know how they'll handle this level. The advdec suggests a possibility of much more downside, but doesn't yet give a strong hint as to how likely that possibility is to develop into a reality.

Jonathan Levinson : 9/19/2005 10:07:32 AM

QQQQ is back to Friday's 1st hour range.

Jonathan Levinson : 9/19/2005 10:05:09 AM

Big spike in natgas, now up to an 8.48% gain at a new high of 12.09.

Linda Piazza : 9/19/2005 10:04:40 AM

SOX a couple of points above the 50-sma that prompted a bounce Friday off its LOD. The 50-sma is at 470.04, the SOX, at 471.66.

Jonathan Levinson : 9/19/2005 10:04:37 AM

Session lows for QQQQ, 3 cents above the 39.22 30 min channel bottom.

Jeff Bailey : 9/19/2005 10:04:29 AM

10:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 9/19/2005 10:03:47 AM

OEX bounce shaping up or is this a "b" distribution pattern forming on the five-minute chart after this morning's sharp drop? A break to a new LOD suggests a "b" distribution pattern. Bears would like to see continued 15-minute closes beneath the Keltner line currently at 572.18, but the longer the OEX hesitates here, the strong the support beneath it at 570.43-571.23 can grow. I'm not seeing signs yet that dictate whether the OEX is more likely to sink into that support first or rise to retest resistance, at 572.18 and 5712.88-573.13.

Jonathan Levinson : 9/19/2005 10:02:11 AM

Volume breadth is down to -1.11:1 for the NYSE, -1.39:1 for the Nasdaq- weaker, but still mostly neutral.

Jonathan Levinson : 9/19/2005 10:01:06 AM

Natural gas and crude reopen, natgas to a new high at 11.98, +.835, crude oil +1.55 at 64.55.

Linda Piazza : 9/19/2005 10:00:05 AM

The TRAN has dropped to 3605, just above the rising trendline off Thursday's low and above the important 3600 support. No break of that rising trendline yet, so the TRAN still remains within the rising regression channel off Thursday's low, just testing support. The 50% retracement of its rally off the June low into the July high is also at 3603.32.

Jonathan Levinson : 9/19/2005 9:59:35 AM

QQQQ's 30 min cycle channel has rolled over, but the short cycle is starting to look bottomy with little downside below the pre-market range: Link

Jonathan Levinson : 9/19/2005 9:56:43 AM

A 7.5B overnight repo results in a net drain of 2B. The stopout rate on treasury collateral was 3.53, on mortgage-backed 3.65.

Linda Piazza : 9/19/2005 9:55:51 AM

OEX support perhaps building near 570.40-571.19, still a rather broad range. The OEX certainly wasn't successful at bouncing yet, with the potential for a drop to 570-571.20 still possible. Bears would prefer to see 15-minute closes beneath a line currently at 572.25, or below 572.87 if that first resistance doesn't hold, and that hasn't been a problem so far. The problem has been getting a bounce that offers a new bearish entry on a rollover. That's just not happening. Since there's the possibility that this is just post-opex action that will soon be reversed, be careful about chasing entries. The advdec line, RLX, and BIX all linger at potential support (well, the BIX is a little weaker), so the possibility of a bounce still remains.

Jonathan Levinson : 9/19/2005 9:52:05 AM

Awaiting the results of the Fed's open market ops in the coming minutes. There's a 2B Treasury paydown on the 3- and 6- month bill auctions later today, and 9.5B in weekend repos expiring. With the stop-out rate holding well above 3.5 since midweek last week, anything less than a massive repo add should see the stop out rate march higher toward a 3.75 target.

Jonathan Levinson : 9/19/2005 9:50:26 AM

My quotes are blinking on and off, mostly still off.

Linda Piazza : 9/19/2005 9:47:11 AM

Here's the first OEX retracement of the day beginning, starting exactly where I thought it would begin, at the touch of the descending trendline off the 9/09 high. This was almost a given, but now we'll get to see what the OEX does with this bounce. Bears want to see the OEX continue 15-minute closes beneath the Keltner lines currently at 572.30 and below the one at 572.84 if that doesn't hold. They want to see the advdec line remain negative.

Linda Piazza : 9/19/2005 9:44:49 AM

RLX at 440.87, below both the 200-sma and -ema's, testing 440-ish otential support. Bears want this to fail and bulls want it to hold. The BIX has fallen steeply, currently approaching a 50% retracement of Friday's big range, at about 348.75 with the BIX at 348.98. That midpoint could likely provide support for the first retracement of the day. OEX bears would really like to see the BIX remain below 350.

Linda Piazza : 9/19/2005 9:42:08 AM

RLX dropping further below the 200-sma and now testing the 200-ema. Round-number support at 440 might be presumed, too, with the RLX now at 441.19.

Currently, the OEX looks vulnerable to 570.38-570.72. Bears wanting a new entry would like to see the first retracement of the day, usually beginning in a few minutes, take the OEX back up to test 572.38-572.82 to offer a new entry, but that doesn't look as if it's happening as I type. The OEX instead may fall straight to the 570-571 level, where it might steady. Those currently in bearish positions need to know how they'll handle a test of that potential support.

Jonathan Levinson : 9/19/2005 9:40:49 AM

My IB feed is offline here.

Jonathan Levinson : 9/19/2005 9:36:50 AM

QQQQ continues to hold within its opening range. Short cycle channel resistance is at 30.43, below rising 30 min channel resistance at 39.52. Link

Jeff Bailey : 9/19/2005 9:36:13 AM

Bearish swing trade short stop alert ... for Valero Energy (VLO) $110.50

Linda Piazza : 9/19/2005 9:35:52 AM

The BIX now retests the daily 21-sma that had been stopping advances since late July, but which the BIX overran Friday afternoon. Bulls, BIX and OEX both, want to see this support hold. The 21-sma is at 350.56 and the BIX is currently at 350.39, essentially still testing that MA. The RLX has dropped below the 200-sma and below Friday's low.

These events are not good for OEX bulls, but both the BIX and the RLX are still within "testing" range, so the jury is still out.

Jonathan Levinson : 9/19/2005 9:34:50 AM

Volume breadth -1.23:1 for the NYSE, +1.05:1 for the Nasdaq.

Linda Piazza : 9/19/2005 9:32:41 AM

The OEX has potential support near 571.53 if it drops that far. That's the current site of the former descending trendline off the 9/09 high.

Linda Piazza : 9/19/2005 9:31:45 AM

The OEX opens and turns down immediately from the resistance level it was challenging at the close. The BIX pulls back but not below the 21-ema at 350.60, at least not yet.

Jeff Bailey : 9/19/2005 9:28:31 AM

September Fed Fund futures (ff05u) 96.40 ... roughly 45% chance of another 25 bp tightening as of Friday's close.

Jonathan Levinson : 9/19/2005 9:23:24 AM

QQQQ's 30 and 60 min cycles are stalled just below overbought territory with price over 50 cents below last week's high. 72 SMA support is at 39.31, below which these cycles will begin to roll over. Any failure to run higher and reignite the Friday advance would suggest a top being put in on these longer intraday cycles.

Jeff Bailey : 9/19/2005 9:19:50 AM

Bearish swing trade adjust stop alert ... for the Valero Energy (VLO) Link stop, with the stock trading $110.13 pre-market. Adjust stop to $110.55 at this point, but I wouldn't give it any more room than that.

Jane Fox : 9/19/2005 9:17:12 AM

Dateline WSJ Expectations for a pause in rate increases by the Fed have gone from a 50%-50% chance to about a 10% chance in the days leading up to the policy meeting, according to trading in federal-funds futures. An increase Tuesday would mark the 11th since June 2004, bringing the Fed's target for overnight loans between banks to 3.75%.

Jeff Bailey : 9/19/2005 9:05:56 AM

Program Trading Levels for Monday ... HL Camp & Company has their computers set for program buying at $+7.32 and set for program selling at $+4.94.

Linda Piazza : 9/19/2005 9:04:41 AM

The TRAN will also be an important index to watch this morning. Friday's big gain just brought the TRAN up to the daily 10-sma, where it stopped just short of that average and the important 200-sma at 3639.25. The TRAN remains in a confirmed downtrend off the late-July high and will need a push above the 72-ema at 3654.80 and the downtrending line off the July highs, with that downtrending line currently at about 3662, to change that outlook. Because the TRAN can overrun boundaries, I'd really want to see a daily close above that downtrending line before I got too excited about the downtrend being broken.

Jonathan Levinson : 9/19/2005 8:45:25 AM

December gold continues to advance currently 90 cents off its 468.60 high. On a continuous contract basis, this is up in the vicinity of 17 year highs. For the Dec. contract, this roughly matches last Nov-Dec's highs, though obviously from a higher previous low. Daily and weekly bollinger resistance are at 464, and while I am bullish on gold, silver, and the CRB as a class, this is not yet a full breakout because of the prior high at the end of 2005.

Jonathan Levinson : 9/19/2005 8:25:40 AM

Ten year notes have edged back to unchanged at 110 39/64, with TNX opening -.1 bps at 4.261%, right on support.

Jonathan Levinson : 9/19/2005 7:39:31 AM

Equities are down, ES trading 1240.75, NQ 1609.5, YM 10655 and QQQQ offered at 39.34. Gold and silver are at session highs of 467.20 and 7.377, ten year notes are +5/64 at 111 11/16, crude oil is up 1.175 at 64.175 and natgas is +.69 or 6.19% at a session high of 11.835.

There are no major economic reports scheduled for release today. The FOMC policy announcement is called for tomorrow at 2:15PM.

Linda Piazza : 9/19/2005 7:19:00 AM

My expectation Friday was that the OEX would likely spend the day rattling around between the support of the 200-sma and the resistance of 15-minute 100/130-ema's, located at the confirmed H&S on the 15-minute chart. Was I ever wrong. Link

In my opinion, much of the OEX's gain Friday occurred on the BIX's back, with the BIX rising up to and breaching the daily 21-sma that had stopped four advances since the BIX fell below it in late July. I discount the last few minutes of trading, when surprised shorts covered. The BIX hit Keltner resistance, too, a little above that important average.

So what's next? That depends on the BIX and the RLX, to a large degree. Should the BIX retreat and the RLX continue its retreat, dropping below the 200-sma and -ema's it's currently testing, the OEX should likely pull back from the strong resistance it's testing. Should be BIX continue to climb and the RLX bounce from that 200-sma, the OEX will likely try breaking above the resistance it's testing. I'd watch those two indices this morning.

Keltner evidence suggested at the close that the OEX could be reaching toward 575.31, but that depends on continued 15-minute closes above Keltner lines currently at 572.41 and 572.60. On a rollover, the OEX could come back down to retest those 15-minute 100/130-ema's, but this is one day when I'm going to have to see how things set up before I draw a strong conclusion.

Linda Piazza : 9/19/2005 7:01:39 AM

Good morning. The Nikkei and several other Asian bourses were closed for a holiday, with others Asian bourses mixed. European markets are mixed, too, with the DAX declining after this weekend's election results led to an uncertain political future. Our futures are modestly negative as of 6:54 EST. At that same time, gold was higher by $3.50, and crude, higher by $1.22, to $64.22. A two-day OPEC meeting begins today. More detail about Asian and European markets follows in succeeding paragraphs.

Japanese markets were closed on Monday due to a national holiday, with several other Asian markets also closed for the day. Over the weekend, speculation arose that Prime Minister Koizumi would make some changes in the lineup for his Cabinet. A newspaper also reported that the government may end a special income and residential tax break in 2007, with the net result being a rate hike.

Other Asian markets were mixed. The Taiwan Weighted gained 0.07%. South Korea's Kospi was another of those markets closed for the day. Singapore's Straits Times dropped 0.34%. Hong Kong's Hang Seng was also closed for the day. China's Shanghai Composite gained 0.63%.

European markets are mixed, with the DAX reacting negatively to an uncertain political situation. Yesterday's election in Germany resulted in ambiguity, with both Merkel and Schroeder claiming victory after close results that gave Merkel a three-person majority. Angela Merkel's Christian Democrats pulled slightly ahead of Schroeder's Social Democrats, but neither party had enough to pull together a majority of votes, and Merkel's coalition did perform worse than expected. These results remain preliminary ahead of Dresden's vote on October 2, but the preliminary vote leaves uncertainty, with Schroeder now unlikely to give up his Chancellorship. Because many had thought that a government led by Merkel would be more lenient toward the development of nuclear power facilities, power companies had been gaining over the summer, but fell on Monday. German automakers also declined. Also in Germany, August PPI stayed at a 4.6% gain year over year, with the month-over-month rate rising 0.3%, less than July's 0.5%. A year ago, the year-over-year gain was 2.2%, but higher energy prices are pushing that year-over-year gain much higher this year. The core rate, excluding energy, was 1.4% year over year. Because firms have not been able to push higher prices through to the consumer, some don't yet consider the inflation picture alarming, but that would certainly cut into corporate profits.

Bank of England board member Nickell commented that the U.K.'s consumer sector might be negatively impacted by higher oil prices and that current economic growth forecasts might not be met, but the FTSE is higher today. Vodafone didn't share in those higher prices in early trading, dropping ahead of an investor presentation today. Anglo-Dutch company LogicaGMC gained, however, announcing a conditional deal to buy France's Unilog.

Other deals were afloat in Europe. Independent energy company Spinnaker Exploration Co. announced that it has agreed to a $65.50-per-share offer from Norsk Hydro. Germany's Deutsche Post said that it would buy U.K. logistics company Exel. Exel gained while acquiring company Deutsche Post slipped lower.

As of 6:49 EST, the FTSE 100 was higher by 5.80 points or 0.11%, at 5,413.70. The CAC 40 had slipped below the flat-line level by 0.91 points or 0.02%, to 4,508.58. The DAX was lower by 60.84 points or 1.22%, at 4,925.66, coiling above its low of the day.

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