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OI Technical Staff : 9/23/2005 9:59:59 PM

The Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

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Tab Gilles : 9/23/2005 6:44:21 PM

As per today's 8:04 AM post, entered 1/2 position on Profund UltraShort OTC (USPIX). Link Link Link

Jeff Bailey : 9/23/2005 5:59:18 PM

Valero Energy (VLO) $110.77 -1.79% ... DJ - CEO saying damage could be done to Houston and Texas City. Port Arthur refinery may be "completely flooded," and down for 1-2 months.

Jeff Bailey : 9/23/2005 5:51:15 PM

Closing U.S. Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 9/23/2005 5:43:27 PM

Closing Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 9/23/2005 5:05:45 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles at this Link

Weekly trade blotter of CLOSED Trades found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 9/23/2005 4:53:10 PM

Imperial Oil (AMEX:IMO) $111.00 -1.39% Link ... reduced its purchase price for benchmark 40-degree gravity light crude oil at Edmonton by C$20 a cubic meter to C$485 a cubic meter, effective today.

In terms of barrels, the company is now offering C$77.12 a barrel, down from C$80.30. The new purchase price indicates an export price delivered to Chicago of about US$67.22 a barrel after considering transportation and import charges and foreign exchange rates.

Actual export prices are confidential but are believed to be closely related to the posted levels.

Jane Fox : 9/23/2005 4:16:43 PM

Linda C U Monday! (wink)

Keene Little : 9/23/2005 4:13:47 PM

Linda, take care of yourself and family members this weekend. And then find yourself a generator so we can enjoy your commentary on Monday (wink).

Jeff Bailey : 9/23/2005 4:25:31 PM

We'll be thinking of you Linda. Good luck and stay safe.

All you traders in the deep south. Stay safe too!

Jonathan Levinson : 9/23/2005 4:02:23 PM

Headline:

FDA COMMISSIONER LESTER CRAWFORD HAS RESIGNED -- AP

Linda Piazza : 9/23/2005 3:55:21 PM

I'm just reminding everyone that we're being warned that we may lose our electricity this weekend, so I may not be on the MM Monday morning if that happens and it's not yet restored by Monday morning. I don't expect major damage where we are, but those power outages are possible, and I'll return as soon as I can.

Linda Piazza : 9/23/2005 3:52:04 PM

OEX still testing the rising trendline off yesterday's low. The Keltner channel suggests the possibility that it could break through to the downside, but it needs to do so soon, as there aren't many minutes left in this day.

Linda Piazza : 9/23/2005 3:43:10 PM

Advdec line approaching +250-550 support, with the line currently just above +550 having supported it since about mid-morning.

Linda Piazza : 9/23/2005 3:41:58 PM

RLX still looks vulnerable to 434.70-ish zone. At 436.18 as I type. Those hoping to see a downturn into the close have gotten some initial signs that movement is going the right direction, but not strong confirmation yet. The OEX is about to test that ascending trendline off yesterday's low, and this is a trendline that bears want to see quickly violated.

Jeff Bailey : 9/23/2005 3:41:39 PM

Bearish day trade close out alert for DPH here at $3.48. 750 of the 1000 share short

Linda Piazza : 9/23/2005 3:39:02 PM

Those hoping for a drop into the close want to see the advdec line dropping soon. It's just consolidating sideways, not really dropping.

Jeff Bailey : 9/23/2005 3:37:24 PM

DPH $3.45 bid still .... let's stick out a bid to cover 750 shares at $3.40. See that Instinet bid at $3.38 and $3.39? They haven't been there all afternoon. That may be where it trades.

Jeff Bailey : 9/23/2005 3:35:46 PM

DPH $3.45 ... Level II looks $3.42 support.

Linda Piazza : 9/23/2005 3:35:08 PM

OEX headed down to test the rising trendline off yesterday's low, with that rising trendline at about 562. Those hoping for a decline into the close want that trendline broken.

Jeff Bailey : 9/23/2005 3:33:19 PM

Bearish day trade short update alert ... for the 1,000 share (1/3 position) short in Delphi (DPH) $3.48 +11.53% ...

Let's do this if you want, but what I'll do for my market monitor profiles.

I think there's a shot that they may announce bankruptcy this weekend.

Let's close out 750 shares of the short by the close, but then hold 250 shares.

I'm tracking some Level II action and will give the "al_rt" if it looks like they want to try a give it a bid back towards its morning open.

We could get some weakness towards the close if "day trade bulls" haven't picked up on the "hedge possibility" and the day trade bulls get jittery with Rita this weekend. They might just liquidate it to our bearish target.

Linda Piazza : 9/23/2005 3:32:17 PM

RLX might get that rise into a right shoulder now, with a rise to retest 437.69-438.78, former support now turned to possible resistance. Right now, that looks stronger than nearby support, suggesting that the RLX could rop toward 434.70 at least.

Jonathan Levinson : 9/23/2005 3:31:06 PM

QQQQ's 60 min cycle appears to have topped and is stalled on the cusp of a rollover from overbougt. Within it, the 30 min cycle turned up, aborting is downphase in the early going about 2 hours ago, but currently hesitates below overbought territory. Again, this should be it for the day (just as I mistakenly though an hour ago at QQQQ 38.76), but with the impact of extraneous news over the weekend unknown, it's very risky to try to step in front of it.

Jeff Bailey : 9/23/2005 3:27:01 PM

Apple Computer (AAPL) $53.36 +2.81% ... also just off its all-time high of $53.81 set on Tuesday.

Jeff Bailey : 9/23/2005 3:25:13 PM

Goldman Sachs (GS) $119.73 +1.03% ... just off its all-time high of $120.40 set on Tuesday.

Jeff Bailey : 9/23/2005 3:24:04 PM

Dave & Busters (DAB) $13.10 +0.46% ...

Jeff Bailey : 9/23/2005 3:23:24 PM

03:00 Internals found at this Link ... current daily NH/NL ratio for NYSE is 35.7 and NASDAQ 36.1.

Jonathan Levinson : 9/23/2005 3:20:38 PM

Session highs for GOOG here, up over 1.66% at 316.68.

Linda Piazza : 9/23/2005 3:19:26 PM

Watch the OEX's ascending trendline off yesterday's low, with that trendline at about 562 now. A break through that trendline, unless quickly reversed, might be a sign that 560.60 or even 559-ish levels might be tested. I still think it would be better to just take the rest of the day off, but that's for those of you who are in or anticipating a bearish play. There's one way of drawing the action yesterday and today that turn it into a bullish right triangle--flat top with rising bottom support.

Linda Piazza : 9/23/2005 3:17:00 PM

RLX has dropped below the neckline of the H&S-ish formation and it looks vulnerable to a deeper pullback, but perhaps not before another bounce to retest resistance. Some elements are coming together that suggest a possible pullback now, but it's late in the day and they're not overwhelming signs yet.

Linda Piazza : 9/23/2005 3:15:09 PM

RUT at the 72-ema that's sometimes important to its performance, testing its resistance. The 72-ema is at 655.77 and the RUT at 655.83.

Linda Piazza : 9/23/2005 3:09:11 PM

The advdec line would have to drop to at least 600 and stay there before it's clear that the resistance it's testing now is holding. Until then, it looks as if it might be trying to convert to support. If I were in a bullish OEX position, I'd be making decision about how to protect profits here as some entities are hinting at a slight weakening, but others have yet to follow through.

Jeff Bailey : 9/23/2005 3:09:02 PM

December Fed Fund futures (ff05z) 95.97 ... first tick back below 96.00

Jonathan Levinson : 9/23/2005 3:07:10 PM

QQQQ is back to testing 38.80 support here after failing at a lower high a minute earlier. The short cycles are rolling over, while that recalcitrant wavelet is failing from a lower high, leaving a possible bullish divergence: Link

Linda Piazza : 9/23/2005 3:06:09 PM

RLX approaching the 15-minute 21-ema at 436.99, the neckline for a potential H&S, with a right shoulder still perhaps to be formed.

Jonathan Levinson : 9/23/2005 3:05:44 PM

Ten year note yields finished higher by 7.2 bps at 4.248%, IRX +1 bp at 3.39%.

Jeff Bailey : 9/23/2005 3:05:24 PM

See that bid in unleaded futures to their settlement? (see earlier insight 01:08:53). Now we'll see if it means anything to the equity-side of things.

Jeff Bailey : 9/23/2005 3:03:55 PM

03:00 Market Watch at this Link

Linda Piazza : 9/23/2005 3:02:28 PM

There's a potential H&S on the RLX's 15-minute chart, with a right shoulder still to be formed. Don't get too excited, bears. There was a similar one early this afternoon, at the 15-minute 100/130-ema's, and it was invalidated.

Tab Gilles : 9/23/2005 3:00:30 PM

SmallCap 600 Growth iShares (IJT) Bearish divergences on weekly chart. Link

A way to play the short side of this is via UCPIX. Link

Linda Piazza : 9/23/2005 2:55:16 PM

SOX hitting Keltner resistance at 462.11-462.18 on 15-minute closes. SOX at 461.74 as I type.

Jeff Bailey : 9/23/2005 2:54:53 PM

Delphi (DPH) $3.50 +12.17 ... seems pinned doesn't it?

Deplphi Trust 8.25% pfd (DPH-A) ...$10.60 +23.97% did tick as high as high as $10.95 within the past 30-minutes.

Linda Piazza : 9/23/2005 2:53:02 PM

Since Thursday morning, the RLX has been bouncing from a 30-minute Keltner line currently at 436.32. It's coming down to test that now, with the RLX at 438.01.

Jonathan Levinson : 9/23/2005 2:52:17 PM

A wall of bids under 38.80 QQQQ here: Link

Jeff Bailey : 9/23/2005 2:45:39 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 9/23/2005 2:43:02 PM

Headlines:

634 OIL/GAS PLATFORMS EVACUATED IN GULF REGION: MMS

7.2B CUBIC FEET OF GAS/DAY SHUT IN BY KATRINA/RITA: MMS

90 OIL/GAS RIGS EVACUATED IN GULF REGION: MMS

Linda Piazza : 9/23/2005 2:41:07 PM

RLX testing Keltner support currently from 438.07-438.42. RLX at 438.51. This is the support from which it's been bouncing this afternoon. A drop beneath this would look as if it might be losing some strength, but the advdec line hasn't lost support and there's just no strong evidence for a rollover yet. Would want to see the advdec line turn over and the RLX turn over.

Jeff Bailey : 9/23/2005 2:36:45 PM

It could be a wild one on Sunday! Bears defend the little "right shoulder" with neckline at roughly $63.00. Link ... BLUE and PINK are my BULLISH fitted 38.2%. The RED is a BEARISH. A bigger h/s top outlined, but will probably take several weeks to form, if it forms at all.

Jonathan Levinson : 9/23/2005 2:36:10 PM

Stepping away for ten minutes.

Jonathan Levinson : 9/23/2005 2:35:09 PM

Infrared satellite loop of the storm from the NOAA at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 9/23/2005 2:31:56 PM

If it's going to bounce, this is where it should happen. The short cycle hasn't printed a sell yet, and the wavelet is bottoming: Link

Linda Piazza : 9/23/2005 2:28:27 PM

Advdec line still climbing. RLX dropping a bit, and its climb has begun to look rising-bearish-wedge-like to me, but there's just nothing here to suggest an imminent rollover.

Here's the Keltner picture for the OEX. Strong resistance at 564.50-565.04. Potentially strong support at 561.57-562.65. Predictable consolidation here with the OEX between the two. If the OEX convincingly breaches either, it could travel some distance, but I still think readers might be better served to go do something and have some fun this afternoon or else stick around and experiment with a new indicator you wanted to test.

Jonathan Levinson : 9/23/2005 2:25:43 PM

Volume breadth is +1.56:1 for the NYSE, +1.67:1 for the Nasdaq.

Jeff Bailey : 9/23/2005 2:22:17 PM

02:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 9/23/2005 2:16:52 PM

Advdec line still climbing, but also still testing the current +650-ish resistance, with the advdec line currently at +705 on QCharts. The RLX pulls back a bit but hasn't done anything to change its rally pattern from today. The SOX tests yesterday's 460.99 high, with Keltner resistance at 462.06. So, there's potential resistance coming up on some entities and the OEX still struggles with its resistance, but there are just way too few signs to hang a bearish play on just yet. RLX coming back now. Watch 473.19 Keltner support to see if it holds on 15-minute closes. However, I won't be able to follow any play closely and so won't be suggesting any the rest of the day.

Jeff Bailey : 9/23/2005 2:07:04 PM

02:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 9/23/2005 2:06:31 PM

The RLX still climbs. The OEX struggles, so far, with the 15-minute 100/130-ema's and the 200-ema at 563.79, but I wouldn't assume a rollover with the RLX still climbing.

Jonathan Levinson : 9/23/2005 2:03:10 PM

It's either the start of a wire-to-wire bullish trending move on this blast through the upper keltner channel tops, or a terminal surge for the 60 min cycle, with a potential bearish divergence for the 30 min cycle. I'm guessing the latter, but bears need to get QQQQ back below 38.63 in order to prove it. Link

Jeff Bailey : 9/23/2005 2:01:38 PM

Bearish day trade lower stop alert ... on Delphi (DPH) $3.50 +12.17% ... to break even.

Linda Piazza : 9/23/2005 1:59:14 PM

The advdec line passed first resistance and now is hitting resistance near 650, while the OEX hits the fifteen-minute 100/130-ema's at 563.98 and 564.78, respectively. This could be strong resistance for the OEX, but I sure wouldn't count on a rollover as long as both the advdec line and RLX move higher.

Linda Piazza : 9/23/2005 1:57:31 PM

The RUT is moving up to the 72-ema, possible resistance.

Jonathan Levinson : 9/23/2005 1:56:29 PM

The NHC is reporting that Rita is being downgraded to a Cat-3.

Jeff Bailey : 9/23/2005 1:56:06 PM

General Motors (GM) $30.79 +1.15% ... DPH $3.49 bears should keep an eye on this one too.

Linda Piazza : 9/23/2005 1:54:41 PM

I would not even think about a bearish OEX play while the RLX is still climbing strongly, but watch RLX 441-442 for possible resistance.

Jeff Bailey : 9/23/2005 1:54:15 PM

DIA $104.37, SPX 1,217.71, QQQQ $38.81

Jonathan Levinson : 9/23/2005 1:53:49 PM

QQQQ - Exit Point Alert -

Stopped out QQQQ at 38.81.

Jeff Bailey : 9/23/2005 1:53:48 PM

Buy Program Premium ...

Linda Piazza : 9/23/2005 1:50:17 PM

The SOX is above the 72-ema, a danger signal to those contemplating bearish plays just now.

Linda Piazza : 9/23/2005 1:49:15 PM

The RLX hasn't changed its pattern yet, still climbing.

Jonathan Levinson : 9/23/2005 1:48:40 PM

QQQQ chart at this Link with the wavelet due to roll over and price pulling back from the upside 30/60 min keltner test.

Jonathan Levinson : 9/23/2005 1:47:10 PM

QQQQ - Entry Point Alert -

Short QQQQ at 39.76, stop 39.81

Jonathan Levinson : 9/23/2005 1:40:38 PM

QQQQ - Exit Point Alert -

Stopped out QQQQ at 38.69, -.05. The short was wrong.

Jonathan Levinson : 9/23/2005 1:41:55 PM

Natgas holds a .24 loss here at 12.835, crude oil -1.85 at 64.65.

Jonathan Levinson : 9/23/2005 1:34:02 PM

Volume breadth is mixed between the markets here, +1.1:1 for the NYSE and -1.15:1 for the Nasdaq. Too close to call.

Linda Piazza : 9/23/2005 1:33:18 PM

The advdec line punched right up to the next resistance, but is back below it now. If you're in a bearish position or planning one, that's one element you want to see. RLX is testing Keltner support, and you want that to crater. I'm not sure that the OEX got far enough above potentially strong support that I'd feel comfortable risking a downside play, though.

Jonathan Levinson : 9/23/2005 1:30:45 PM

Price needs to break 72 SMA supprot at 38.57 very soon to break the short cycle back down. Link

Jonathan Levinson : 9/23/2005 1:28:57 PM

QQQQ - Entry Point Alert -

Short QQQQ at 38.64, stop 38.69

Linda Piazza : 9/23/2005 1:27:38 PM

Yes, I'm thinking in "wavelet" terms. Back in a while. They just drove up.

Jonathan Levinson : 9/23/2005 1:26:38 PM

Sorry, Linda- my fault there ;)

Jane Fox : 9/23/2005 1:26:00 PM

Linda you just said wavelet of relatives - you have been in this monitor too long :)

Jeff Bailey : 9/23/2005 1:24:28 PM

01:00 Internals found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 9/23/2005 1:24:26 PM

The first wavelet of our relatives who left Port Arthur last evening have now made it to the outskirts of Dallas (a normal five-hour trip) and may be arriving soon, as I believe that our streets here in Dallas are not too terribly clogged right now. I may be in and out a bit more this afternoon. I don't see anything that I'd trade again just yet, but I'm watching the advdec line to see how it behaves and if it rolls down. I don't know that I'd be gung ho a new bearish entry anyway, with yesterday's twice tested 559-ish zone waiting just below, but the advdec line has now made a closer approach to potential resistance. I think I'd like to see the RLX keel over and at least form 15-minute closes beneath a Keltner line at 436.93 before I believed it was making the slightest change in behavior, but even then the RLX has potentially strong support now in the 433 range so it make take a fall below that before any stronger decline began in the RLX. I'd want to see the SOX still below its 72-ema, too, before I considered any bearish plays. If you're inclined to trade this afternoon, you might watch for a potential OEX retest of yesterday's low if all those conditions set up, but I'm not sure I'll be here to guide you at the moment it sets up or would feel comfortable about suggesting a play on a pre-storm Friday afternoon if I am here.

Jonathan Levinson : 9/23/2005 1:23:39 PM

Headline:

LABOR DEPT. TO MODIFY JOBS REPORT PROCEDURES DUE TO KATRINA

Linda Piazza : 9/23/2005 1:17:56 PM

The advdec line has finally charged up toward next resistance, now at -150 rather than -200. Advdec line at -401 as I type. The OEX isn't charging much of anywhere, although it is seeing a little pop. The SOX is below the 72-ema and the RLX below its converging 200-sma and -ema's, although the RLX hasn't really changed the nature of its uptrend yet. Don't see anything that marks a potential for a rollover just yet, but still watching.

Jonathan Levinson : 9/23/2005 1:13:10 PM

The wavelet cycle has finally gotten in gear, but now it's taking the short cycles up with it. 30 and 60 min channel resistance have edged down to 38.73-.77 QQQQ, and volume has slowed to a crawl- just over 1/3 of yesterday's volume has traded so far for QQQQ.

Jonathan Levinson : 9/23/2005 1:08:14 PM

Ten year notes continue to bleed lower, ZNZ5 down to 110 11/16 with TNX now up 7.2 bps at 4.248%.

Jeff Bailey : 9/23/2005 1:07:00 PM

01:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 9/23/2005 1:08:53 PM

Had talked to a energy futures trader buddy of mine late last night. He said he and most traders on the floor are going to be focused on the natural gas and unleaded gas futures today, and most likely want to be net long into the close. These are deemed the "most at risk" energy commodities at this point.

He makes a good point that Crude Oil isn't too big of a deal, but a close eye there too in regards to a market view on any news that may be flooding of the SPR.

In short ... the unleaded and natural gas complex is a view of how refiners are taking it, while crude oil is more "flood" related.

He laughed when I asked him where his stops were. In essence, that type of info isn't shared with anyone!

Linda Piazza : 9/23/2005 12:56:01 PM

Painful day, but a lot less pain if you're out of short-term directional trades. I've got some spreads, but I'm glad I'm not sitting here agonizing over every little jot back and forth and what its implications might be.

Jeff Bailey : 9/23/2005 12:55:56 PM

General Cable (BGC) $16.00 -1.23% ... had my eye on it the other day at this level, but wanted a little more weakness to $15.50-$15.75. Just got off the phone with my buddy with a grouse/elk update. Said his just digging in to a filled e-mail and phone recorder log from some of his customers and regional reps. He assumed business is pretty good.

Linda Piazza : 9/23/2005 12:47:59 PM

If the advdec line had kept climbing toward -200 before it stalled, I'd know better what to think. I'd think it was bearish that the OEX couldn't climb any higher while the advdec climbed all the way into strong resistance. But the advdec line stalled beneath that, so it's not near the strong resistance that I wanted to see it test, and far too near to possible support to give me a good feeling about anything too bearish happening.

Linda Piazza : 9/23/2005 12:41:40 PM

There's the slightest hint of the OEX's Keltner support softening, looking softer now than the resistance. This is really microanalyzing, however. I, personally, am not considering any new positions at this time. I'll let you know if I see anything that changes.

Jonathan Levinson : 9/23/2005 12:40:38 PM

I've had a QQQQ short entry typed up for 5 minutes as price sits flat right here. At this point, I have no idea which way it will break immediately from here, though I think that beyond the little wavelet bounce due, the intraday bias is shifting to the downside. I'd just prefer to enter closer to my proposed stop just above the day high.

Jeff Bailey : 9/23/2005 12:42:55 PM

A "hedge" trade? ... DPH $3.50 +12.17, while Delphi Trust I Cumulative Pfd 8.25% (DPH-A) $10.40 +21.63%.

In case of bankruptcy, long the DPH-A and short the DPH?

Merrill wouldn't have loaded up clients in the preferred and upgraded the stock just to get this pop would they?

Jeff Bailey : 9/23/2005 12:33:14 PM

Swing trade put option alert ... Let's pick up one (1) of the Apple Computer AAPL Nov. $55 Puts (QAA-WK) here at $4.30.

AAPL $52.88 +1.86%

Jonathan Levinson : 9/23/2005 12:32:22 PM

QQQQ's losing it here, the wavelet cycle actually trending in oversold. An ideal short entry might have just slid away with the wavelet failure.

Linda Piazza : 9/23/2005 12:28:36 PM

Caught on the telephone.

Jeff Bailey : 9/23/2005 12:28:34 PM

Dave & Busters (DAB) $13.18 +1.07% Link ... was a 52-week low at the NYSE yesterday. Getting a "feel" for the NYSE NH/NL ratios.

Jonathan Levinson : 9/23/2005 12:24:42 PM

A wavelet bounce is due here for QQQQ. If it fails at a lower high, then the short cycle should begin its downphase. Link

Jeff Bailey : 9/23/2005 12:24:22 PM

12:00 Internals found at this Link ... Daily NH/NL ratios for NYSE and NASDAQ nearing more "oversold" 30% levels. NYSE = 33% and NASDAQ 33.3%

Linda Piazza : 9/23/2005 12:18:48 PM

If the OEX continues sideways too much longer, it's going to invalidate that potential inverse H&S on its 15-minute chart just because of the time factor. That looks more bearish than bullish. It's still climbing in its potential bear flag, however. Keltner-wise, it's trading sideways right in the middle of the bottom half of its biggest channel, with support and resistance looking about the same and not giving the slightest clue as to next direction. Often when it looks like this, it takes wild swings, but today it's taking the clamp-it-down-and-don't-move mode.

Jonathan Levinson : 9/23/2005 12:13:59 PM

Signs of trouble for the short cycle which is stalling below overbought territory, QQQQ unable to crack yesterday's high: Link

Jeff Bailey : 9/23/2005 12:06:21 PM

Well Point (WLP) $76.00 +3.83% Link ... Xs get the squares!

Jeff Bailey : 9/23/2005 12:04:29 PM

12:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 9/23/2005 12:01:44 PM

Ten year notes continue to weaken, TNX now up 6.2 bps at 4.238% (a 1.5% gain today), IRX up 1 bp at 3.39%.

Linda Piazza : 9/23/2005 12:00:50 PM

RLX chugging straight up toward the converging 200-sma and -ema's. The OEX isn't going to roll over, although it might still stagnate, while the RLX is climbing up there, but watch for RLX resistance at that area, if you're looking for a new bearish OEX trade. You'd want a lot of elements to come together, including having the advdec line hit resistance, too, so I'm not advocating that you automatically take a bearish trade when the RLX hits the 441-442 zone. I'll be in and out a lot today, but if I see something developing, I'll let you know.

Jeff Bailey : 9/23/2005 12:01:58 PM

Apple Computer (AAPL) $53.02 +2.17% Link ... gets back to WEEKLY S2. Thinking about Wednesday's short trade, and after-thoughts. Now... let's see if bears didn't get "trapped", but now that the rally comes, let's see if it wasn't some very long bulls that set up the trap, now get a boost of short-covering, to really sell into. If I were long this stock, I'd sure be taking some stock/profits off the table.

Linda Piazza : 9/23/2005 11:56:54 AM

Advdec line still looking as if it might try to climb toward -200 or so, and as long as it's looking that way, I wouldn't expect a rollover.

Jonathan Levinson : 9/23/2005 11:51:45 AM

Session low for ten year notes and crude oil, session high for GE. Volume breadth ticks fractionally positive on the NYSE and Nasdaq.

Jeff Bailey : 9/23/2005 11:51:03 AM

Bearish day trade lower stop alert for Delphi (DPH) $3.48 to $3.57 now.

Jonathan Levinson : 9/23/2005 11:46:38 AM

Volume breadth holds fractionally negative for the NYSE and Nasdaq, basically neutral, and price is holding consistently above the 72 SMA. It's still an inside day, but very close to yesterday's QQQQ high, and direction is still up for grabs. Price feels like it wants to run higher, but a short cycle upphase is reaching overbought territory, and none of the intraday cycles are oversold or even close to it. Link

Linda Piazza : 9/23/2005 11:46:58 AM

Thanks, Mark. We had some events that prevented me from offering my home to evacuees from New Orleans, something I had wanted to do. Now, I'm glad that I have room for our relatives. Who knew?

By the way, I've mentioned it before, but they've been telling us to expect power outages in Dallas. I'm not sure whether Rita's small change in direction and small decrease in winds will change that, but if I don't appear Monday morning, I'm probably sitting at my computer, twiddling my thumbs, waiting for the electricity to come back on.

Jeff Bailey : 9/23/2005 11:47:56 AM

Delphi (DPH) $3.49 +11.85% ... day trader's chart at this Link ... I noted where WEEKLY S2 and S1 are at, but didn't display QCharts' Weekly Pivot Levels.

A trader the believes yesterday's comments from the company's CEO that "bankruptcy could be any day" might hold some of his/her short position over the weekend. Maybe close out 750 shares of current short at target, but go for the throat if company announces official bankruptcy.

Merrill Lynch might "know something" different than yesterday's news, but I think Merrill simply believes the risk of a long from these levels was worth a shot. It might be for the bullish side, so consider trade risk if you/I decide to hold some overnight.

Linda Piazza : 9/23/2005 11:42:55 AM

The OEX's climb off its LOD looks bear flaggish to me. If the advdec line continues climbing, it will approach another area of resistance at about -200, with it now at -820. If the OEX stays where it is while the advdec line climbs that high and if the advdec line then craters, those who stayed in a bearish play might be rewarded, but that's a lot of "if's" just yet. It's even possible that a new bearish entry might set up if the advdec climbs into strong enough resistance so that it seems safe, but I'm just not sure about that possibility right now. Just watching, and leaning toward not doing anything else today unless there's a really strong setup.

Linda Piazza : 9/23/2005 11:39:13 AM

I'm sure you're hearing the news, but Rita is expected to completely flood Port Arthur, my hometown and the current home of my mother-in-law and brother-in-law, and destroy some 6,000 homes. Guess I'll be having company for a while here in Dallas. Outside the human toll to be considered, there's the hit that our nation's concentration of refineries and chemical companies in that area will take. I'll tell you a story that illustrates how many there are in the area. When my husband was in law school, we were driving back from Houston to visit. Ahead of us, a car blew up something or other in its motor and the guy pulled over. This was on a back road to Port Arthur. We stopped and picked him up--it was a long time ago and people still did that--and he asked my husband, "Which refinery do you work at?" He could probably tell that my husband wasn't a shrimper, another big industry in the area that will be hard hit, but he could imagine no other employer for someone from Port Arthur. There's now a big prison in the area--Oh, my, wonder what they're doing with the prisoners, to protect them?--to diversify the economy a bit and perhaps some other industries.

Jonathan Levinson : 9/23/2005 11:32:31 AM

Headline:

RITA AT BORDER OF CATEGORY 4 AND 3, WINDS NEAR 135 MPH -NHC

Jeff Bailey : 9/23/2005 11:30:40 AM

11:00 Internals found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 9/23/2005 11:29:34 AM

The OEX tests this morning's small gap. On a Keltner basis, it's also testing resistance at 562.41. A 15-minute close above that, if it holds, would set an upside target again at 565.01-565.47. However, if it closes below that, it may just stay tangled up in other Keltner lines.

Jonathan Levinson : 9/23/2005 11:29:00 AM

Headlines:

HURRICANE RITA 'A LITTLE WEAKER,' STILL DANGEROUS -NHC

RITA EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL NEAR LA, TEXAS EARLY SAT -NHC

Jeff Bailey : 9/23/2005 11:22:43 AM

Delphi (DPH) $3.55 ... should be filled. I'll follow with a day trader's chart in a minute. DAILY Pivot Levels ... $2.90, $3.01, Piv= $3.21, $3.33, $3.53.

Low/High so far has been $3.38-$3.65

Jonathan Levinson : 9/23/2005 11:20:04 AM

QQQQ still holds inside yesterday's range, a lower high but also a higher low. Volume is quite low, much lower than in recent sessions and just under 1/5 of yesteday's 119.2M QQQQ shares. Looks like everyone's waiting for everyone else to make the first directional move.

Jeff Bailey : 9/23/2005 11:18:32 AM

Bearish entry alert for Delphi Corp. (DPH) $3.54 +13.46% on the offer here.

Jeff Bailey : 9/23/2005 11:16:35 AM

Delphi (DPH) correction alert. Looking short 1/3 position, or 1,000 shares.

Linda Piazza : 9/23/2005 11:09:44 AM

SOX jammed up underneath the 72-ema at 458.55 again, with the SOX at 457.36. I personally think this could be strong resistance, but there's the 456-ish support just beneath, too, and that could be strong. Perfect prescription for some choppy behavior.

Jeff Bailey : 9/23/2005 11:16:00 AM

Bearish day trade short setup alert upgraded by Merrill Lynch today are shares of Delphi (DPH) $3.46 +10.89% ... would look day trade short 1,000 shares (1/3 position) on trade at $3.54. Stop $3.61, target $3.40.

Jonathan Levinson : 9/23/2005 11:08:25 AM

Session low for crude oil, -1.125 at 65.375.

Jeff Bailey : 9/23/2005 11:06:02 AM

11:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 9/23/2005 11:03:03 AM

Before I step away, I wanted to note that the advdec line is reaching a dangerous point for bears and that any who did not exit when I first suggested it might take that profit right now.

Linda Piazza : 9/23/2005 11:02:22 AM

Stepping away for a few minutes.

Jonathan Levinson : 9/23/2005 11:01:45 AM

Session high for QQQQ as price breaks above 72 SMA resistance and volume breadth ticks up to +1.07:1 for the Nasdaq.

Linda Piazza : 9/23/2005 11:00:00 AM

Advdec line turning higher again, challenging resistance that bears want to see hold. Not good for bearish plays to see it climbing.

Jonathan Levinson : 9/23/2005 10:56:13 AM

The 30 min oscillators have rolled over as the channel edges lower, while the 60 min cycle upphase is stalling. Both failed below overbought territory. If price continues sideways, it would likely be the "weightless" period within which the longer 60 min channel makes its turn from up to down. QQQQ bears need to hold below the 72 SMA at 38.59.

Jeff Bailey : 9/23/2005 11:01:58 AM

Bullish % ... order of importance, or most widely followed/analyzed by traders and investors

NYSE Bullish % Link ... is a very broad measure of 1, 2 and 3-lettered stocks (roughly 3,000) that are deemed "institutionaly held." Traders and investors will tie this bullish % in with what the BIG MONEY is doing.

NASDAQ Comp. Bullish % Link ... is a very broad measure of 4 and 5-lettered stocks (roughly 3,000). This is deemed "the other market," but gives important insight on a broad scale to this market's internals. It has been my/our observation since the October 2002 lows that this very broad bullish % usually "follows" the NYSE bullish % around. Prior to the October 2002 lows, during the recession, it was the NASDAQ that would lead to the downside, and corrections would have the NYSE Bull % reversing higher first.

S&P 500 Bullish % ($BPSPX) Link ... a broad measure of 500 stocks that includes both NYSE and NASDAQ listed securities. This is "the market." Fewer stocks should give "more" reversals. It is easier to move 500 stocks than 3,000, or 6,000.

S&P 100 Bullish % ($BPOEX) Link ...

Jane Fox : 9/23/2005 10:52:44 AM

Dateline WSJ China's central bank Friday took a further step toward a flexible foreign-exchange trading system, widening the daily band in which the yuan can trade against currencies other than the U.S. dollar. In morning trading in New York, the dollar recovered from a sharp swoon against the yen that followed China's overnight announcement. The euro was trading at $1.2114 from $1.2154 late Thursday. The dollar fell to 111.59 yen from 111.70 yen, and was at 1.2845 Swiss francs from 1.2789 francs. The pound was at $1.7852 from $1.7916, while the euro was down versus the yen at 135.16 yen from 135.56 yen. The People's Bank of China said in a statement that, effective immediately, the yen, Hong Kong dollar, and euro exchange rates to the yuan would be able to move by as much as 3% above and below the previous day's closing level, widening the band from 1.5%. But the central bank held firm its grip on the yuan's exchange rate to the dollar, keeping the daily trading band for that currency pair steady at 0.3% on either side of the previous closing rate.

Linda Piazza : 9/23/2005 10:53:46 AM

The advdec line is behaving just as bears might wish, so if you didn't bail along with me out of the bearish trade entered yesterday (see my 10:24:16 post), then you're still doing okay, although you now want to see a rollover in the advdec line.

On a Keltner basis, the OEX's resistance is beginning to soften, and that worries me on behalf of bears. The support isn't all that firm, either, though, so there's just not much guidance to be found there for either bulls or bears. A bounce is as likely as a decline, and vice versa.

Jonathan Levinson : 9/23/2005 10:46:31 AM

Terrible times, Jane.

Jane Fox : 9/23/2005 10:46:24 AM

Linda things just keep getting worse. How sad.

Jonathan Levinson : 9/23/2005 10:44:40 AM

I'd heard that it was an oxygen tank that caused the explosion.

Linda Piazza : 9/23/2005 10:43:48 AM

Jane, I had seen reports of that explosion and fire on the bus this morning, but at the time they weren't sure about fatalities and injuries. It's also blocked the roadway for those evacuees trying to move into Dallas.

Jane Fox : 9/23/2005 10:42:39 AM

Dateline CNN Dallas TV station WFAA reports 20 people killed when bus loaded with Hurricane Rita evacuees erupted in flames south of Dallas.

Linda Piazza : 9/23/2005 10:42:13 AM

Advdec line finding resistance, so far, where bears would want it, too. The OEX, too. RLX turning down a bit again. So far, any aggressive bears that stayed in a bearish play are doing fine and those conservative (among the aggressive who took the trade--smile) are maybe wishing you hadn't taken profit. Perhaps me, too, although I took the profit right along with you and exited. Still, a profit is a profit, and you should have been able to make one.

Jeff Bailey : 9/23/2005 10:41:47 AM

NYSE Composite ($NYA.X) conventional 20-point box chart at this Link ...

Jonathan Levinson : 9/23/2005 10:41:40 AM

Headline:

10:38 *DJ Second Levee Breach Reported In Western New Orleans -CNN

Jonathan Levinson : 9/23/2005 10:41:03 AM

Nov. natural gas is down .12 at 12.955, off a low of 12.685, and crude oil is down .625 at 65.875, 37.5 cents off the low.

Jonathan Levinson : 9/23/2005 10:40:13 AM

Sep 23, 2005 - NEW YORK (Reuters) - The New York Mercantile Exchange said Friday it declared force majeure on September natural gas deliveries due to the closure of the Sabine Pipeline which operates the key Henry Hub delivery point in Erath, Louisiana.

On Thursday, Sabine shut down a pipeline ahead of Hurricane Rita's expected landfall along the Gulf Coast and declared a force majeure, the exchange said in a statement.

Linda Piazza : 9/23/2005 10:36:18 AM

RLX bouncing. It's above yesterday's close but still below its open, and I wouldn't be surprised to see that current doji sitting there at the end of the day today. As long as the RLX is rising, the OEX is going to have a hard time cratering, another reason that I bailed on the bearish play, suggesting that traders go ahead and take profit. I don't know whether my uneasiness comes from signs I'm picking up, an expectation for a choppy trade that might not go much below 559 anyway or just from the unsettled stuff going on here in Texas and in my home in particular. I know that Fridays, for me, don't tend to be a day as amenable to technical signals as some, so I'm always a little antsy about a profitable trade turning into an unprofitable one on a Friday. So, I think most traders probably should have taken profit, but I'll continue to tell you what I see, as it's possible that I was just being too conservative this morning.

Jonathan Levinson : 9/23/2005 10:34:29 AM

Volume breadth remains negative but has improved, -1.82:1 for the NYSE and -1.23:1 for the Nasdaq.

Jonathan Levinson : 9/23/2005 10:34:00 AM

No further action from the Fed following that 6-day repo, so it's likely that the 500M net add will be it for the day. Bonds remain weak, TNX up 4.8 bps at 4.224%, IRX up 1 bp at 3.39%.

Jeff Bailey : 9/23/2005 10:32:53 AM

Bear Confirmed alert .... Yesterday's action had the very broad NYSE Bullish % ($BPNYA) Link from StochCharts.com reversing back lower to "bear confirmed" status.

Dorsey/Wright and Associates' NYSE Bullish % (BPNYSE) also reversed lower to "bear alert" status.

I would consider the "bear alert" status more accurate (as noted over the years, StockCharts.com adjusts their stock's charts lower when a dividend is paid, and now we have two different "bear" phases), but both signal a defensive posture from the markets.

The NYSE Bullish % is perhaps the most noted bullish % by institutions, as well as the broad S&P 500 Bullish %.

Jonathan Levinson : 9/23/2005 10:31:04 AM

Big upside surge for QQQQ here, testing 72 SMA resistance at 38.60. The wavelet cycle is ticking up, still tracking slowly due to the lighter volume this morning.

Linda Piazza : 9/23/2005 10:28:28 AM

If any are still in bearish plays, they want to see the advec line find resistance at -1250 or so. It's at -1481 now.

Linda Piazza : 9/23/2005 10:27:50 AM

After that 10:24 post, the advdec line moved up again. It's still just challenging resistance, but I'm glad that I advised that bears take profit as there's something that's just not feeling right here. I'm not advising a long play, either, at least not now.

Linda Piazza : 9/23/2005 10:24:15 AM

Advdec line turning down a bit more again, but needs to drop below -2150 to make bears feel comfortable. I honestly can't tell if the unsettled feeling I'm getting is some kind of gut intelligence picking up signals that my eyes don't see or if it's due to all the upheaval here, but something doesn't feel right, and I'd suggest that all but the most aggressive of you take your profits on the play entered yesterday near the close. I'd thought the downside limited to about 559 anyway.

Jeff Bailey : 9/23/2005 10:22:26 AM

10:00 Internals found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 9/23/2005 10:20:52 AM

QQQQ is holding a short ccyle downphase, but the bulls are fighting it, with the wavelet trending and overdue for a corrective bounce within the ongoing short cycle decline. 30 and 60 min channel support line up at 38.40: Link

Linda Piazza : 9/23/2005 10:18:50 AM

Keltner picture. So far, the OEX finds resistance below the Keltner lines currently from 561.81-563.17 on 15-minute closes. Those look stronger than nearby support, but perhaps not yet strong enough to preclude a bounce up to retest them and bunch them up closer to each other. Support is trying to firm, too, though, with nearest support at 560.38, about to be tested. That support is weaker than the resistance I think. Next support is at 558.67 and 559.41.

Linda Piazza : 9/23/2005 10:16:04 AM

Slight downturn in the advdec line. Not much.

Linda Piazza : 9/23/2005 10:15:05 AM

There's something about this morning's action that I just don't like on behalf of bearish plays. I'm not seeing anything yet that screams "get out," but I don't like the way the advec line is acting. The bounce was too strong. I'd like to see it turn around soon. Unless it does, I think I'd advise going ahead and taking profit and then watching the retest of yesterday's low.

Jonathan Levinson : 9/23/2005 10:09:09 AM

Headline:

RUBIN: U.S. ON THE WRONG ECONOMIC TRACK

RUBIN: U.S. IN 'DEEP HOLE' OF DEBT

RUBIN SEES RISING THREAT OF 'FISCAL DISARRAY'

Jonathan Levinson : 9/23/2005 10:06:16 AM

Session low for ten year notes with TNX up 3.8 bps at 4.214%, IRX up 2.1 bps at 3.401%.

Linda Piazza : 9/23/2005 10:05:46 AM

SOX bounced ahead of yesterday's low. Bears want to see it stay below 458.51, the 72-ema, although a quickly reversed move above it wouldn't be disastrous.

Jonathan Levinson : 9/23/2005 10:05:42 AM

Headline:

SNOW TELLS JAPAN'S TANIGAKI CHINA YUAN FLEXIBILITY NEEDED

SNOW, JAPAN FINANCE MINISTER PUSH FOR G8 DEBT DEAL

SNOW, JAPAN FINANCE MINISTER DIDN'T DISCUSS YUAN ACTION

TREASURY CALLS CHINESE YUAN MOVE TECHNICAL STEP

Jeff Bailey : 9/23/2005 10:04:36 AM

10:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 9/23/2005 10:04:05 AM

OEX bears want to see 15-minute closes beneath Keltner lines currently at 561.96-562.58.

Linda Piazza : 9/23/2005 10:00:27 AM

The advdec line has hit a place of potential support again. Bears want another thrust lower to get it below the ascending trendline off the 9/21 low. Conservative of you (although I warned this was for aggressive traders only) might take profit soon if the advdec line can't thrust lower.

Jonathan Levinson : 9/23/2005 9:56:39 AM

Need to step away for 5 minutes.

Linda Piazza : 9/23/2005 9:56:35 AM

So far, the signs I watch suggest that more downside is possible, although a bounce first isn't precluded. The OEX looks vulnerable to 558.79-559.49 as long as 15-minute closes are below 562.15-562.64, but I'd certainly be looking at taking partial profit soon if/as the OEX approaches yesterday's LOD. You've got profit now if you entered after my 3:58 suggestion yesterday, and there's nothing wrong with taking profit. Ever.

Jonathan Levinson : 9/23/2005 9:55:51 AM

The announces a 6.75B 6-day repo, a net 500M add for the day but leaving the door open for another repo in the coming minutes. The stop out rate was 3.66, the same area as yesterday and the day before.

Linda Piazza : 9/23/2005 9:50:02 AM

The RLX is outperforming some other indices. It's at the flat-line level now, although below its open with a small-bodied red candle on the daily chart. This thing is a real snake about striking higher, so OEX bears want to keep a close watch on it. So far, so good.

Linda Piazza : 9/23/2005 9:48:58 AM

SOX dropping from its 72-ema, back below the 556 level Marc has been noting as important, but not yet below yesterday's low.

Linda Piazza : 9/23/2005 9:47:29 AM

Keltner outlook for the OEX: As I suspected it might (see my first OEX-related post this morning), the OEX fell below the Keltner lines that maintained its upside target. This first retracement of the day, typical for this period, might bring it up to retest that former support, now possible resistance, from 562.27-562.66 on 15-minute closes. Bears who might have entered near the close yesterday (see my 3:58 post yesterday) want to see that resistance hold on 15-minute closes. From this perspective, it looks strong enough to hold. Things could change.

Jonathan Levinson : 9/23/2005 9:41:16 AM

Mark, GOOG has done it again- back above 315 here, just like the weather on the "Wet" Coast.

Jonathan Levinson : 9/23/2005 9:40:31 AM

QQQQ gapped and has held below 72 SMA support at 38.60, below which the intraday bias remains to the downside as the 30 and 60 min channels begin to roll over: Link

Linda Piazza : 9/23/2005 9:40:29 AM

The OEX still hasn't seriously breached an appropriate right-shoulder level for its potential inverse H&S, something that OEX bears would like to see it do right away. A bounce might be in order first, however. If so, OEX bears would like to see the advdec line stay below about -1250 to -1000, with that line at -1657 now.

Jonathan Levinson : 9/23/2005 9:37:19 AM

Volume breadth is -1.82:1 on the NYSE and -2.23:1 on the Nasdaq at the open.

Linda Piazza : 9/23/2005 9:36:26 AM

Advdec line approaching a possible support zone, down to -1600, with the advdec line now at -1258, according to the QChart version. Watch for a potential bounce soon if the advdec line holds at about -1600, or for a continued fall if it drops heavily below it.

Jonathan Levinson : 9/23/2005 9:34:53 AM

Hearing of a new levee break affedcting New Orleans' 9th ward- searching for confirmation.

Linda Piazza : 9/23/2005 9:34:50 AM

The OEX does open below the 200-ema this morning, so those who floated a trial bearish play late yesterday as it was testing it, as I suggested that aggressive traders might try doing, are happy with the open. I warn that the OEX has not yet dropped below the appropriate right-shoulder level for its potential inverse H&S, however, so a bounce back to test that 200-ema might still be possible. If the OEX does continue lower, guard profits near yesterday's low. I'd take partial profits, at the least, near 559-560 and ratchet down the stops on the rest of the position because I think it more than possible that the OEX could be forming another of its infamous congestion/consolidation zones.

Keene Little : 9/23/2005 9:34:31 AM

Jonathan, interesting observation, especially in light of the crash alarms that seem to be going off recently, as I disussed in last night's Wrap. Crashes are so rare that it doesn't pay to bet on them but the vulnerability of the current market is a little scary.

Linda Piazza : 9/23/2005 9:32:10 AM

Thanks for the good wishes, everyone, but I think we'll probably just experience something similar to a bad and prolonged thunderstorm. When we lived in Port Arthur, we would have stayed and weathered a category 1 storm, which we may not even get now, if Rita stays turned. We may have more thunder inside the house from crowded relatives!

Jonathan Levinson : 9/23/2005 9:29:15 AM

A friend has reeled in this famous quote from the New York Times on September 1, 1929. I'll stick to the charts and other indicators, and don't mean to suggest an imminent repeat of the crash or anything like that, but it's certainly fascinating to read today what they were saying back then:

"... Traders who would formerly have taken the precaution of reducing their commitments just in case a reaction should set in, now feel confident that they can ride out any storm which may develop. But more particularly, the repeated demonstrations which the market has given of its ability to "come back" with renewed strength after a reaction has engendered a spirit of indifference to all the old time warnings. As to whether this attitude may not sometime itself become a danger-signal, Wall Street is not agreed."

Jeff Bailey : 9/23/2005 9:27:19 AM

Yes Linda. Be safe!

Jonathan Levinson : 9/23/2005 9:25:23 AM

Good luck, Linda. Prayers to all from "up" here in Canada.

Jeff Bailey : 9/23/2005 9:19:47 AM

Program Trading Levels ... HL Camp & Company has their computers set for program buying at $+7.27 and set for program selling at $+4.52.

Jane Fox : 9/23/2005 9:17:31 AM

Linda we will hold down the fort here as you hold down your own fort at home. Good luck and God bless.

Linda Piazza : 9/23/2005 9:14:26 AM

I have evacuees from the Beaumont/Port Arthur and Houston areas straggling into my house all day today, so there may be times when I'm away from the MM for a while. Some have been on the road more than 12 hours now, making a trip that's normally between 4-6 hours, depending on whether they're coming from Port Arthur or Houston. Rita has turned a bit, and some who previously weren't coming to Dallas, because Rita was still supposed to be a category 1 by the time she got here, are now turning from the direction they were headed and are coming here.

Linda Piazza : 9/23/2005 9:11:14 AM

Yesterday, I expected the OEX to start a countertrend bounce from a zone between Wednesday's close and about 558.90. It did, with the LOD at 558.99. The trouble was that it began that bounce later in the day than I'd hoped. I'd wanted to see an earlier bounce that then rolled over and offered a new bearish entry. Instead, the early bounce collapsed, and it wasn't until about noon that a sustainable bounce began.

In the process, the OEX formed an inverse H&S with a neckline at about the daily 200-ema's level. That average is at 563.80, with the day's HOD at 563.86. Just above that zone, several other types of resistance converge, including the 38.2% retracement of the decline off this week's high, with that Fib level at 564.64. By the end of the day, the OEX had barely maintained a 15-minute upside Keltner target of 565.77, but was headed down to retest the support level that was needed to maintain that upside target.

I expected a countertrend bounce and I think that's what we saw. I expected it earlier, and then I expected a pullback that would have left a doji for the day's candle instead of the stronger candle that was produced, but I think the effect was still the same. I think the OEX is consolidating above the 558.90-ish level that's the actual ascending trendline off the April low and below either the 200-ema, touched yesterday, or perhaps the 200-sma, up at 566.84. If I had to pick one, I'd pick the 200-ema tested yesterday. I suggested at the close if an aggressive trader wanted to try a bearish entry, that might be an okay move, but an open this morning above that 200-ema at 563.80 would likely spell trouble for that play unless the OEX was quickly knocked lower. That's because the OEX has a strong tendency to consolidate between important averages or S/R levels in 4-6 point ranges. Sustained values above the 200-ema could set that up as the support for a higher consolidation zone. The OEX could use the 200-ema's support to leapfrog up to the 200-sma, and consolidate between the two. It tried that earlier in the month.

Despite that inverse H&S and the upside Keltner target just under 566, I'll be looking at the possibility this morning that a downturn could begin from the 200-ema tested yesterday. That's partly because the SOX couldn't manage a close above the 72-ema that it kept testing all day yesterday, after closing at that average all day the day before, so watch the SOX. Watch the RLX, too. It retraced all of Wednesday's losses and most of Tuesday's, closing just a tad above a 19.1% retracement of the decline off the late July high. The RLX could be on its way to a retest of its 200-sma and the neckline of its confirmed H&S. I'd expect that, even if that's what it's doing, it's likely to zig-zag its way higher, and today might be time for a zag lower after yesterday's zig higher. If the RLX performs strongly again, however, I wouldn't expect the OEX to crater, so the RLX should also be watched. The BIX sprang up strongly, and a continuation of its rally off yesterday's low would also help support the OEX.

So, an open near or below the 200-ema and trade below that level suggests that the OEX may be setting up a consolidation pattern under that MA and may roll down toward 559-560 again. An open above the 200-ema that isn't quickly slapped back may suggest that a consolidation pattern would likely be established at or somewhere beneath the 200-sma instead, so bears who entered yesterday near the close should then be prepared to exit.

Jonathan Levinson : 9/23/2005 8:44:48 AM

The EIA reports that Rita has shut in roughly 2.2 million bpd of gasoline, 600K bpd of jet fuel and 1.2 million bpd of distillates. They estimate that 5 million bpd of refining capacity is currently offline, with no estimates as to how long these disruptions will last.

Jonathan Levinson : 9/23/2005 8:26:30 AM

Ten year notes hold their losses, with TNX opening +2.8 bps at 4.204%, IRX +2.1 bps at 3.401%.

Jonathan Levinson : 9/23/2005 8:24:21 AM

QQQQ's 30 and 60 min cycles are in mature upphases, the 60 min cycle roughly halfway to overbought, both of which are within a daily cycle downphase that is just past its midpoint on the way to oversold. The weekly cycle remains in the opening stages of a downphase. This is a bearish setup based on price cycles alone, with a prognosis of short term strength/sideways chop as the intraday upphases work themselves out. The uncertainty comes where those upphases are stronger than expected- for example, if they break and hold above the previous day's high.

Candle-wise, yesterday's print showed a steep rejection at the lows (actually two rejections intraday) leaving a doji star. The rejection at the high prevented it from being a bullish hammer/inverted gravestone, and results in a mostly uncertain print. A lower low and lower high was printed, continuing the daily cycle downphase's operative theme. Below yesterday's high, QQQQ remains in "sell the bounce" mode.

Jonathan Levinson : 9/23/2005 8:11:59 AM

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Treasury prices fell Friday in anticipation China, the second largest holder of U.S. debt, could curb its purchases as it takes more steps toward currency flexibility. China may need fewer of the U.S. Treasurys it buys with dollar proceeds from transactions historically used to hold down the value of its yuan. China said Friday it will widen from 1.5% to 3% the band in which the yuan trades against the euro, yen and the Hong Kong dollar. Treasurys, which gained initially this week on risks seen posed by Hurricane Rita, finished U.S. trade lower on Thursday after oil prices eased modestly. Friday morning, the benchmark 10-year Treasury note was down 1/4, or $2.50 for each $1,000 in securities at face value, at 100 9/32. The drop in price lifted its yield ($TNX) to 4.21% vs. 4.18% Thursday.

Tab Gilles : 9/23/2005 8:04:24 AM

Nasdaq100 ($NDX) I'm watching several key technical points on the $NDX and planning to trade accordingly today.

1)The 1550 support level if broken may see the $NDX drop rapidly to the 1500 level. If the $NDX is trading below 1550 before the close I'll enter a short position via USPIX fund. $NASI is still iin bear mode and $NDX MACDs bearish.

2)If the $NDX reamins above the 1550 level and below the 50-ma I'll take a partial position via USPIX.

3) If the $NDX closes above the 50-ma, $NASI bearish and $NDX Macd bearish- I'll take a partial long position via UOPIX.

4) If the $NASI turns bullish, $NDX crosses over 50-ma and the $NDX MACDs crossover then I'll take a full long position via UOPIX Profund Ultra OTC. Link Link Link Link

Jonathan Levinson : 9/23/2005 8:00:16 AM

Headlines:

AAA DAILY AVG RETAIL GASOLINE PRICE $2.748 A GALLON

AAA DAILY AVG RETAIL GASOLINE PRICE WAS $1.865 A YR AGO

Jonathan Levinson : 9/23/2005 7:40:15 AM

Equities are mixed with ES trading 1220.75, NQ 1577.5, YM 10449 and QQQQ -.04 at 38.60. Gold is down 3.5 to 467, silver -.084 to 7.33, ten year notes -1/4 to 110 63/64, crude oil -.8 to 65.70 and natgas -.145 to a session low of 12.93.

There are no major economic reports scheduled for today.

Linda Piazza : 9/23/2005 7:09:06 AM

Good morning. The Nikkei was closed last night, with other Asian markets tending to drop. European markets perform better, however, rebounding off recent losses, although the DAX is currently still more than 100 points below last week's close. As of 6:54 EST, gold was down $3.00, and crude, down $0.75, to $65.75. Our futures were modestly higher, but below fair value at that time. More detail about Asian and European markets follows in succeeding paragraphs.

The Nikkei was closed last night for a national holiday, but several events may impact trading next week. After the close Thursday, Sony had announced that it would cut 10,000 jobs and close 11 plants under a new three-year business plan. A restructuring plan had been anticipated. The government had news of its own, with the Economic and Fiscal Policy Minister Takenaka revealing in an interview that government-affiliated financial institutions would have a new, specific timetable for cutting lending. Monday, Prime Minister Koizumi will likely ask for a quick passage of the postal privatization bill. He may also call for a revamping of the financial relationship between regional governments and the central government, a newspaper article speculated. Another article called for China to stop gas exploration in the East China Sea, with Jim Brown mentioning that rift between China and Japan in a recent market wrap.

Most other Asian markets declined. Ahead of the G7 meeting today, China has reportedly widened the yuan's trading range against non-U.S. dollar currencies to 3% from its previous 1.5%, impacting some Asian currencies and then their countries' equity performance. China claimed that the widening of the band will increase the costs of speculating and therefore would limit such speculation, maintaining a stable currency. This move came just hours before the G7 meeting, with increasing numbers of officials speaking out this week, calling for China to widen the trading band. China did deny that it would use its reserves to buy oil assets, giving those a more favorable status than U.S. treasuries, as one Chinese economist suggested the country should do yesterday. Of course, I believe that China also recently denied earlier speculation that it would again widen the trading band for its yuan.

The Taiwan Weighted lost 0.78%, and South Korea's Kospi dropped 2.01%. Singapore's Straits Times climbed 0.10%, but Hong Kong's Hang Seng declined 0.24%. China's Shanghai Composite fell 0.69%.

Many European markets are higher this morning as crude prices retreated overnight and Hurricane Rita was downgraded to a category 4 storm. In Germany, August's import prices rose more than expected, to a 0.9% month over month increase, but the yearly rate was steady from July's, at a 4.7% year over year increase. Energy costs were of course responsible, and one article said they were solely responsible. Excluding oil and mineral product prices, the important prices fell 0.2% month over month and climbed 0.8% year over year.

European oil majors tended to be weaker, as might be expected with a retreat in crude prices, but BP was also hard hit after it announced that it would pay a $21.3 million fine because of alleged safety violations found after the explosion and fire in March in Texas City. Other stock-specific news included Swedish insurance company Skandia's rejection of an offer from Old Mutual, with Skandia falling afterwards. Oracle's earnings results hit SAP in early trading, although ABN Amro and J.P. Morgan analysts both defended the company. The WSJ speculated that Airbus, owned by EADS and BAE systems in an 80/20 split, felt that the European government would likely fund up to one-third the development cost of its planned A350 jetliner. EADS and BAE Systems both gained in early trading. Brokerages were active, with Nomura International trimming chip manufacturer STMicroelectronics to a reduce rating, Merrill Lynch upgrading Peugot to a buy rating, and CSFB trimming Volkswagen to a neutral rating. STM and Peugeot gained in early trading, while Volkswagen dropped.

As of 6:49 EST, the FTSE 100 had gained 14.50 points or 0.27%, to trade at 5,400.20. The CAC 40 was higher by 12.01 points or 0.27%, to trade at 4,460.16. The DAX was higher by 24.12 points or 0.50%, to trade at 4,873.13, still more than 100 points below last week's close.

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