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OI Technical Staff : 9/26/2005 9:59:59 PM

The Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

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Jeff Bailey : 9/26/2005 6:30:12 PM

General Motors (GM) $31.15 +0.25% ... AP - Fitch just now lowering the company's credit rating further into "junk" status, saying automaker has made little progress in reducing its high costs and is vulnerable if gas prices remain high.

Seeing some Delphi (DPH) $2.99 -13.58% ... cross the evening session at the bid of $2.97.

Jeff Bailey : 9/26/2005 6:24:50 PM

Combined US Airways Group and America West Holdings begins trading on the NYSE tomorrow under ticker (NYSE:LCC).

Jeff Bailey : 9/26/2005 6:21:50 PM

Well .... I'm off to the Broncos (1-1) vs. Chiefs (2-0) game in a key AFC West battle. Looks like a quiet evening session with many companies reporting minimal damage from Hurricane Rita as management gets first look at operations.

Jeff Bailey : 9/26/2005 6:14:10 PM

70% of small town destroyed ... CNN - Roughly 70% of the buildings in Creole, LA, population 1,500 were destroyed by Hurricane Rita. Reporter Randi Kaye said she saw cattle, rabbits and other dead animals.

Jeff Bailey : 9/26/2005 5:32:52 PM

Lowes Companies (LOW) $65.27 -0.18% ... DJ - At 2005 analyst and investor conference, company saying it is still comfortable with 4%-6% Q3 same-store sales growth.

Jeff Bailey : 9/26/2005 5:30:00 PM

Shell Oil ... DJ - Company saying no significant topside damage to US Gulf platforms. Company adds that is now restaffing Gulf platforms.

Jeff Bailey : 9/26/2005 5:28:10 PM

Parkway Properties (PKY) $45.31 +1.59% ... DJ - Releases Hurrican Rita upate. Company saying all 15 Houston, TX properties are open and operational.

Jeff Bailey : 9/26/2005 5:18:33 PM

Global Elections DJ - Israel's Netanyaho concedes he lost Likud vote to Sharon.

Jeff Bailey : 9/26/2005 4:58:34 PM

Weekly/Monthly pivot matrix found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 9/26/2005 4:41:01 PM

Closing Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 9/26/2005 4:38:40 PM

Closing U.S. Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 9/26/2005 4:19:57 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles found at this Link ... Today's activity ... Day trade shorted shares of Office Max (OMX) at the bid of $39.50, but was stopped out at $39.65 ($-0.15, or -0.46%).

Jeff Bailey : 9/26/2005 4:06:18 PM

Short Interest in NASDAQ stocks ... NASDAQ stock market announcing open short interest positions for September totalled 5.7 million shares.

Jonathan Levinson : 9/26/2005 3:52:41 PM

QQQQ is trading up a cent at 38.76, and will leave off within a short cycle upphase against the ongoing 30 and 60 min cycle downphases. The daily cycle. The daily cycle downphase continues despite a higher high and higher low for the day, and the bears are going to have to press tomorrow in order to stall what is now day 2 of higher-highs and higher-lows for the Qs.

Linda Piazza : 9/26/2005 3:51:53 PM

The OEX rose past first resistance, breaking out of what looked like a corrective bear-flag rise into a stronger rise. There's again a potential for a H&S, this one a continuation-form one that began forming on Thursday afternoon with a rise into a shoulder area at about 563.85, a head at today's high and a neckline at about 560.48. If the OEX is currently rising into a right shoulder for that formation, it might be stopped again at the 15-minute 100/130-ema's at 563.61 and 564.16, and begin to flatten there. Symmetry would suggest that it might take up to a day or so to finish forming that right triangle, so that's a possibility that must be considered. The Keltner picture isn't clear, with multiple possible resistance levels overhead, but with none of them converging close enough that I can tell that one will definitely hold or not hold.

Backing up a little from a 15-minute chart, the OEX continues to consolidate in a 4-6 point range, as it so often does after moving big and before deciding on a direction. This morning's climb was higher than expected, but the OEX will likely close back below the 200-ema, so that range remains essentially from the 200-ema down to the 559-560-ish range.

Jeff Bailey : 9/26/2005 3:49:36 PM

BP Plc (BP) $71.29 +1.14% ... DJ - Company saying there was no damage to its US Gulf deepwater facilities.

Linda Piazza : 9/26/2005 3:34:59 PM

So, what's going to happen the last few minutes of the trading day? Unfortunately, neither the OEX nor the advdec line give strong clues, as both are in a corrective-looking climb, but between possible strong support and possible strong resistance.

Jeff Bailey : 9/26/2005 3:31:47 PM

Office Depot (ODP) $29.93 -0.23% Link ...

Jeff Bailey : 9/26/2005 3:32:07 PM

Staples (SPLS) $20.99 +0.04% Link ...

Jeff Bailey : 9/26/2005 3:30:07 PM

Bearish day trade stop alert ... for Officemax (OMX) $32.65

Jeff Bailey : 9/26/2005 3:29:50 PM

Valero (VLO) $112.25 +1.34% ... breaks above WEEKLY Pivot.

Jeff Bailey : 9/26/2005 3:26:40 PM

Bearish swing trade lower stop alert .... for Delphi Corp. (DPH) $3.00 -13.29% .... to $3.18.

Linda Piazza : 9/26/2005 3:25:55 PM

As I thought might happen today, the RLX did find resistance at its converging 200-sma and -ema's, at 442.01 and 440.97, respectively. See my 10:23:56. Although I'd already guessed that the OEX's 566-567 resistance might hold, the presumption that the RLX's resistance might hold, too, corroborated that impression. So far, the RLX is printing its second long-legged doji in a row, indicative of indecision, but its rise so far has constituted only a retest of broken support, and that former support is so far holding as resistance. That's bearish overall, as long as the resistance continues to hold.

Jonathan Levinson : 9/26/2005 3:21:23 PM

The short cycle upphase that scared me into covering at 38.73 QQQQ is ticking up here, again with minor bullish-d's on the wavelet cycle, but the bounce is laborious and volume breadth is holding negative. I believe that any bounce will be a gift to sell, and the 30/60 min cycles continue in gear to the downside, so far keeping a lid on even short cycle gains off the lows:

Jeff Bailey : 9/26/2005 3:20:27 PM

DHL, a unit of German logistics and mail company Deutsche Post World said it has spent $12 million to update its vehicular fleet in Mexico, including the purchase of 375 new trucks (vendor(s) not disclosed).

Linda Piazza : 9/26/2005 3:17:28 PM

The advdec line still hasn't sunk all the way into possible support, so more downside is possible, perahps after a test of the +700-1000 zone. It's at 396 (QCharts value) as I type. The OEX is already bouncing from Keltner support (Those Keltner channels are wonderful sometimes, aren't they?), up to test first resistance at 561.91 on 15-minute closes.

Jeff Bailey : 9/26/2005 3:16:27 PM

Global Elections ... DJ - Israel exit polls have Likud party vote too close to call. The vote pits Sharon vs. rival Netanyahu.

Jeff Bailey : 9/26/2005 3:12:14 PM

03:00 Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 9/26/2005 3:04:09 PM

03:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 9/26/2005 3:03:31 PM

Volume breadth has deteriorated to -1.24:1 on the Nasdaq and +1.02:1 on the NYSE- not exactly a sign of bulls rending their cloths and panicking, but still well off the +9:1 and +5:1 readings for the Nasdaq and NYSE at the open.

Linda Piazza : 9/26/2005 3:01:58 PM

OEX support is trying to firm near 560.50. The jury remains out as to shether it will hold or not, but a bounce up to 562 doesn't seem out of the question.

Linda Piazza : 9/26/2005 2:55:50 PM

The advdec line sinks toward but not quite to next strong support, where I would expect downside momentum to possibly weaken. This is down to about -420 now, with the advdec line at +168 and approaching the top band of a possible support band. This occurs as the OEX has hit its Keltner target. I'd advised short-term bears to take partial profit at that Keltner target and ratchet down stops, or conservative bears might even have taken full profit. If the OEX rolls down through this support, now at 560.48, it's setting a new downside target of 557.85, but the OEX isn't always good at hitting the particular target that would be set.

Jeff Bailey : 9/26/2005 2:53:53 PM

Apple Computer (AAPL) $53.50 +0.56% Link ... backfills Monday morning's gap higher after setting new all-time high of $54.56 intra-day.

Jeff Bailey : 9/26/2005 2:50:54 PM

Nalco Holding Co. (NLC) $17.01 (unch) ... DJ - Plants returning to production.

Jonathan Levinson : 9/26/2005 2:49:54 PM

Session low for GOOG just printed at 312.71 after printing a higher high this morning above 320.

Jonathan Levinson : 9/26/2005 2:45:24 PM

Volume breadth drops to -1.08:1 for the NYSE, -1.32:1 for the Nasdaq.

Linda Piazza : 9/26/2005 2:43:21 PM

OEX drawing close to the 560.69 current target on its 15-minute chart. Bears, you've had some time to consider how you'll treat this test of this potential support, so it's soon going to be time to put your plan into effect. The advdec line shows the potential for more downside, although support might be reached from about the zero level to -250.

Jonathan Levinson : 9/26/2005 2:42:06 PM

I wonder what Chairman Greenspan would think about Condoflip.com Link ... "speculative" indeed.

Jonathan Levinson : 9/26/2005 2:39:21 PM

Those bullish divergences noted earlier are now history as price holds at the lows, within the rolling 30 and 60 min cycles channels. There's no sign of strength, other than the neutral volume breadth, but with the 60 min cycle only now rolling over, there are many hours left of potential downward bias. I'm hoping for an overdue short cycle upphase to bounce back to the 38.90 area, which would be an opportunity to reload short. Currently, the short cycle is beginning to trend in oversold beneath the weight of the longer downphases: Link

Linda Piazza : 9/26/2005 2:33:20 PM

Here's that same old 561.63-ish level coming into play in the OEX, with that the 38.2% retracement of the entire bear-market rally. OEX at 561.64 as I type. The advdec line looks as if ther might be more downside. The OEX downside target is currently 560.72 as long as the OEX maintains 15-minute closes beneath the Keltner line currently at 562.76.

Jeff Bailey : 9/26/2005 2:33:25 PM

BellSouth (BLS) $25.76 -0.73% ... Board of Directors declares regularly quarterly dividend of $0.29 per common share. Q3 dividend payable on November 1, 2005 to shareholders of record as of the close of business on October 13, 2005.

BLS has approximately 1.8 billion shares outstanding in about 700,000 registered shareholder accounts.

Jeff Bailey : 9/26/2005 2:29:26 PM

TRIN 1.00 +19.04

Jeff Bailey : 9/26/2005 2:20:15 PM

TRIN alert 1.06 +26.19%

Linda Piazza : 9/26/2005 2:19:33 PM

The OEX has violated what would have been the H&S neckline and now heads down toward its current 560.74 downside Keltner target. This has been that same old Keltner channel that contains most movements. In most cases, it's been a good idea to take partial profit as that channel is hit, and then lower the stop on the rest of the positions. Sometimes it's been a good idea to take total profit and switch sides after some confirmation that a bullish position is a good idea, but I think I'd take the partial-profit-and-lower stop option in case the OEX keeps heading lower. The advdec line suggests that more downside might be possible. I'll keep watching.

Jonathan Levinson : 9/26/2005 2:17:52 PM

Volume breadth holds positive here, +1.18:1 for the NYSE and +1.06:1 Nasdaq. Wish I hadn't covered our short from the open- woulda coulda. 30 min channel support is down to 38.64: Link

Jeff Bailey : 9/26/2005 2:15:13 PM

02:00 Internals found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 9/26/2005 2:13:56 PM

I'm tempted to get back into our QQQQ short here, but the bullish divergent setups are increasing in the short cycle indicators, and I'm tired of giving back money by holding positions too long. Still on the sidelines.

Jonathan Levinson : 9/26/2005 2:12:19 PM

Session high for crude oil at 65.675.

Headlines:

100% OF DAILY GULF OIL OUTPUT REMAINS OFFLINE: MMS

78.4% OF DAILY NATURAL-GAS OUTPUT REMAINS OFFLINE: MMS

Linda Piazza : 9/26/2005 2:05:05 PM

Not much of a bounce attempt here into a right shoulder for a possible H&S for the OEX, is it? The advdec line threatens to drop down to the +750 level, too, from its current 1019. The neckline for that H&S would have been at about 562.17 or slightly above that. The OEX is at 562.72 as I type.

Jeff Bailey : 9/26/2005 2:03:05 PM

02:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 9/26/2005 2:01:22 PM

QQQQ's little bounce is feeling flaggy so far, and bulls need to clear 38.81 to invalidate the distribution pattern: Link

Linda Piazza : 9/26/2005 1:58:28 PM

So far, OEX 566-567 resistance did hold, with 565.30 resistance holding on 15-minute closes. Bears need a decisive break of the bear flag, with the OEX currently testing the flag's (as QCharts draws it) support at about 562.90. As long as the OEX maintains 15-minute closes beneath 563.67 or possibly a little higher, it still looks vulnerable to 560.85.

Linda Piazza : 9/26/2005 1:50:53 PM

Possible H&S on the OEX's 15-minute chart, with the head at today's highs and the shoulder area near the 15-minute 100-ema, curerntly just below 564, and with the right shoulder still to be formed.

Jonathan Levinson : 9/26/2005 1:48:34 PM

QQQQ - Exit Point Alert -

Out QQQQ at 38.73, +.26.

Linda Piazza : 9/26/2005 1:47:48 PM

Currently, OEX Keltner resistance looks stronger than support, but perhaps not strong enough to preclude another bounce attempt.

Jonathan Levinson : 9/26/2005 1:47:14 PM

Getting ready to cover our QQQQ short on the next drop- seeing possible bullish divergence in the wavelet oscillator (2nd pane from bottom): Link

Jane Fox : 9/26/2005 1:46:40 PM

Dateline WSJ President Bush said Monday that the government is prepared to again tap the Strategic Petroleum Reserve to alleviate any new pain at the pump caused by Hurricane Rita's damage to the nation's energy industry, and he asked Americans not to drive if they don't have to.

He also implied he will likely name a federal czar-like official to oversee the reconstruction of the Gulf Coast from the devastation caused by Hurricane Katrina. But he said that local officials must first produce a vision for how they want their rebuilt communities to look.

"I'm considering how best to balance the need for local vision and federal involvement," he said. "The vision and the element of reconstruction is just beginning and there may be a need for an interface with a particular person to help to make sure that the vision becomes reality."

Linda Piazza : 9/26/2005 1:44:23 PM

On a Keltner basis, the OEX looks vulnerable to 560.81 as long as it maintains 15-minute closes beneath 563.83.

Linda Piazza : 9/26/2005 1:41:32 PM

Advdec line dropping more steeply now as the OEX now tests the QCharts-drawn support for its possible bear flag rise of Friday's low. Potential advdec support near +700. It's at 941 now. If it bounces and the OEX does, too, bears want it now to find resistance below 564.50.

Jeff Bailey : 9/26/2005 1:40:06 PM

Teppco Partners (TPP) $40.47 +0.92% ... DJ - Returning service to systems affected by Hurricane Rita. 20-inch diameter mainline system resumed pumping at 45% capacity.

Jonathan Levinson : 9/26/2005 1:38:21 PM

Headlines:

GREENSPAN: FED CLOSELY STUDYING HURRICANES' ECONOMIC IMPACT

GREENSPAN: HOME PRICE FALL NOT NECESSARILY DISRUPTIVE

GREENSPAN: MOST PEOPLE HAVE CUSHION FOR HOME PRICE DROP

GREENSPAN: MORTGAGE DEBT RISING FASTER THAN HOME VALUES

GREENSPAN: MORTGAGE DEBT RISE DUE TO TAKING CASH FROM HOMES

GREENSPAN: HIGHER RATES WOULD CUT CASH FROM HOMES, SPENDING

Jeff Bailey : 9/26/2005 1:34:38 PM

Bearish day trade short alert for Officemax (OMX) $32.50 here, stop $32.65, target $32.05.

Jonathan Levinson : 9/26/2005 1:33:23 PM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Any decline in home prices would not necessarily be disruptive, Fed chief Alan Greenspan said Monday. In a speech to the American Bankers Association, Greenspan said it is "an open question" what the impact of higher mortgage rates or any drop in home prices would have on the economy. Consumer spending would fall as homeowners would not be able to finance spending from the rise in their home's value, but the low personal savings rate would rise and the U.S. trade deficit would shrink, Greenspan said. The vast majority of homeowners have a sizable equity cushion to absorb a potential decline in house prices, he said. "That said, the situation clearly will require our ongoing scrutiny in the period ahead, lest more adverse trends emerge," he said. In a short statement on Hurricanes Katrina and Rita, Greenspan said the Fed will continue to follow developments closely to assess their implications for the economy.

Jeff Bailey : 9/26/2005 1:32:09 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles found at this Link ... updated from 10:13 AM EDT Link

Linda Piazza : 9/26/2005 1:31:59 PM

The OEX has violated the actual rising trendline off Friday's low, but is bouncing from the QCharts-drawn support of its rising regression channel. Bears want to see the OEX remain below the 15-minute 100/130-ema's at 573.99 and 564.54, respectively. The advdec line has dropped below the support needed to suggest a trend change, but approaches new support and now may rise to retest the broken support. I would need that retest for confirmation, and it may not come soon enough to benefit bearish traders.

Jonathan Levinson : 9/26/2005 1:31:11 PM

Volume breadth ticks negative for the Nasdaq at -1.01:1, neutral, while it holds +1.75:1 for the NYSE.

Jonathan Levinson : 9/26/2005 1:30:42 PM

Session highs for crude oil, natgas and gold futures here.

Jeff Bailey : 9/26/2005 1:29:32 PM

December Fed Funds futures (ff05z) alert 95.93 -0.04% ... (10-minute delayed)

Jonathan Levinson : 9/26/2005 1:26:02 PM

QQQQ goes negative at 38.74, with price testing convergence at the 30/60 min channel bottoms. The 60 min cycle downphase is just kicking off, and this is where the short cycle downphase should begin trending as the longer intraday cycles get in gear to the downside: Link

Jeff Bailey : 9/26/2005 1:23:34 PM

Carmax, Inc. (KMX) $31.77 +1.01% ... DJ - Sees "minimal" Rita effect on sales. Company expects to recover "nearly all" lost sales. Houston sites "largely unscathed."

Jonathan Levinson : 9/26/2005 1:23:16 PM

QQQQ - Stop Loss Adjustment Alert -

QQQQ short at 38.99, lower stop to 38.90

Jeff Bailey : 9/26/2005 1:21:55 PM

Swift Energy (SFY) $47.44 +3.69% ... DJ - About 55%-60% of total production still shut-in. No damage to Houston headquarters.

Linda Piazza : 9/26/2005 1:21:40 PM

The OEX has now dropped back to the rising trendline off Friday's low as the advdec line drops to and slightly below support. Bears don't want to see a quick bounce in either of them. If the OEX ends this 15-minute period below the Keltner line at 563.45, it looks vulnerable to 560.87.

Linda Piazza : 9/26/2005 1:14:52 PM

OEX back to test the 200-ema again. Advdec line dropping to test support, too.

Jonathan Levinson : 9/26/2005 1:14:46 PM

QQQQ - Stop Loss Adjustment Alert -

QQQQ short at 38.99, lower stop to 38.99

Jeff Bailey : 9/26/2005 1:10:38 PM

01:00 Internals found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 9/26/2005 1:07:21 PM

OEX still testing support. The advdec line moves down toward support, today, but hasn't violated it, and may still bounce from it. Nothing definitive yet that precludes another push higher, although I still believe that the 566-567 resistance may ultimately hold.

Jonathan Levinson : 9/26/2005 1:05:21 PM

Foreign central banks took 7.5B of the 32B in 13- and 26-week bills auctioned today. The 13 week bills sold for 3.44% yielding 3.518%, generating 2.28 bids tendered for each accepted. The 26-week bills sold for 3.745% yielding 3.87%, with a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.12.

Jeff Bailey : 9/26/2005 1:03:00 PM

01:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 9/26/2005 1:00:31 PM

S&P Banks Index (BIX.X) 340.36 (unch) ... after brief test of WEEKLY Pivot, sinks to unchanged.

Linda Piazza : 9/26/2005 1:00:11 PM

The OEX again punched through the 15-minute 100-ema, down to within a few cents of the daily 200-ema, but then bounced again. It's at 564.12 as I type. The advdec drifts lower, but hasn't convincingly violated support. A further push higher and continued OEX testing of resistance isn't yet ruled out.

Jonathan Levinson : 9/26/2005 12:58:59 PM

Session high for natural gas, +.065 at 12.75.

Jeff Bailey : 9/26/2005 12:56:35 PM

Global Trade Fifth round of China-U.S. textile talks begin today in Washington with many industry participants pessimistic that an agreement will be reached to limit the overall growth of Chinese textile shipments.

Jonathan Levinson : 9/26/2005 12:56:16 PM

This dip could have bottomed the short cycle downphase, though there oscillators are still declining and the wavelet starting to trend. Shorts who took the 38.99 entry this AM can cover here for a small gain, but I'm going to leave it in place and try to catch the overdue 30/60 min cycle downphase. Link

Jonathan Levinson : 9/26/2005 12:51:39 PM

Session lows for NQ and QQQQ here, with QQQQ down to an 8 cent gain at 38.83. 30 min channel support is at 38.78, and the longer intraday cycles should be rolling over here: Link

Jeff Bailey : 9/26/2005 12:51:13 PM

General Motors (GM) $31.24 +0.54% ... builds gain from Friday.

Jeff Bailey : 9/26/2005 12:50:24 PM

Delphi (DPH) $2.99 -13.58% ....

Delphi Trust I 8.25% (DPH-A) $9.10 -15.34% ...

May depict some re-think regarding DPH leaning toward bankruptcy, with DPH-A outperforming to the downside in percentage terms now.

Linda Piazza : 9/26/2005 12:49:13 PM

The OEX is breaking down out of this morning's consolidation pattern, but has dropped only to the 15-minute 100-ema at 564.02, so far. The advdec line is dropping, too, but hasn't confirmed by dropping below and staying below 1550. It's at 1881 as I type, on QCharts.

Linda Piazza : 9/26/2005 12:45:11 PM

Hurricane stories: my brother-in-law heard from a friend who hadn't been able to get all the way out of harms' way and made it only to Livingston, where a dam has had to be opened and further evacuations ordered. He said that, while there, people traveling from and now back to Houston had begun punching into the gas tanks of the parked cars. He said they had to deputize Parks and Wildlife people and post them in the parking lot to keep that from happening.

Linda Piazza : 9/26/2005 12:42:22 PM

The RLX is headed sideways/sideways down into the five-minute 100/130-ema's, with those at 437.93 and 437.11, respectively, and with the RLX currently at 439.13. Is has confirmed a double-top formation on its five-minute chart, but has started the sideways action just after that confirmation. That can be a sign that bears don't have the strength to follow through on that confirmation. OEX bears would need to see that violated before they believed that the RLX was even beginning to change its tenor. Bulls, of course, want a bounce.

Jeff Bailey : 9/26/2005 12:41:22 PM

Energy Futures at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 9/26/2005 12:35:31 PM

Keene, I agree re: the p/c ratio. However, the 21 DMA remains in the mid .60s according to Vtoreport, still well off the highs.

Tab Gilles : 9/26/2005 12:34:15 PM

Material Select Sector (XLB) Link

Jonathan Levinson : 9/26/2005 12:33:40 PM

GOOG goes red here, -.47 at 314.88.

Linda Piazza : 9/26/2005 12:33:02 PM

Advdec line is dropping to test support. It needs to lose +1500 support before the tenor has even changed.

Linda Piazza : 9/26/2005 12:28:28 PM

Resistance still tentatively holding on the advdec line, but it's still testing it.

Jonathan Levinson : 9/26/2005 12:26:56 PM

Volume breadth +2.55:1 for the NYSE, +2.56:1 for the Nasdaq. TRIN and TRINQ have risen slightly, still neutral at .75 and +.87 respectively.

Jeff Bailey : 9/26/2005 12:23:19 PM

Bottom 10 performing sectors at 12:00 ... Retail/Drugs, Appliance & Tool, Auto & Truck Parts, Water Transportation, Construction & Agric. Machinery, Biotech/Drugs, Mobile Homes & RVs, Insurance/Misc., Textiles - Non Apparel, Office Equip.

Jeff Bailey : 9/26/2005 12:21:22 PM

Top 10 performing sectors at 12:00 ... Retail Apparel, Fish/Livestock, Gold/Silver, Auto/Truck Mfg., Coal, Apparel/Accessories, Recreational Activities, Construction/Raw Materials, Retail/Technology, Restaurants.

Linda Piazza : 9/26/2005 12:17:07 PM

The advdec line has again risen to test resistance, continuing to show bearish divergence each time it does, but always finding support at the first level and bouncing. It hasn't given up testing resistance and neither has the OEX.

Jeff Bailey : 9/26/2005 12:16:22 PM

12:00 Internals found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 9/26/2005 12:16:27 PM

QQQQ's 60 min cycle is hanging in suspended animation on a bearish stochastic kiss within overbought territory. Bears need to see a sustained break of 72 SMA support at 38.90 to roll it over. So far, price refuses to break down, but also refuses to break up, holding within its first 1/2 hour's range.

Jeff Bailey : 9/26/2005 12:04:56 PM

12:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 9/26/2005 12:02:49 PM

Biogen Idec (BIIB) $38.13 -1.11% ...

Jonathan Levinson : 9/26/2005 12:02:37 PM

Gold trades nearly 6 points off its earlier low, currently +1.1 at 468.40, with silver trading .075 at a session high of 7.41.

Jeff Bailey : 9/26/2005 12:02:20 PM

Amgen (AMGN) $82.55 -0.88% ... probes its rising 21-day SMA ($82.49)

Jeff Bailey : 9/26/2005 12:01:37 PM

Biotechnology Index (BTK.X) 630.84 -0.04% ... slips red and session low.

Linda Piazza : 9/26/2005 12:00:28 PM

The advdec line descends toward support, now at about +1800, with stronger support at about +1350. That support needs to be broken before there's even a hint of a change in tenor. Meanwhile, the OEX still churns near the 15-minute 100/130-ema's.

Jonathan Levinson : 9/26/2005 11:56:55 AM

Session high for crude oil here at 64.275, session low for GE at 33.31.

Linda Piazza : 9/26/2005 11:52:21 AM

SOX turning down again, but it's not yet into this morning's small gap higher. SOX at 464.43 as I type.

Jeff Bailey : 9/26/2005 12:00:54 PM

Did anyone catch the details of President Bush's comments regarding the administration's recent policy regarding the use of "colored diesel" and near-term lifting of restrictions on its use? Was it just for farmers being allowed to use it for their on-road vehicles, by region/state (ie Louisianna, Mississippi, Texas....) or would a company like Yellow Roadway (YELL) $40.90 +1.43% be able to use it?

I've been looking for and details on this, but haven't been able to find any.

The White House's press briefings Link

Linda Piazza : 9/26/2005 11:39:09 AM

The RLX is headed down toward a test of its five-minute 100/130-ema's at 437.53 and 436.63. The RLX is at 439.00 as I type. The OEX still coils, with support for its coil along the midline of its rising regression channel. The OEX is still testing the five-minute 100/130-ema's at 563.96 and 564.54, but not much can be determined yet, except that it's still churning, as I predicted earlier that it probably would within this range. My presumption is still that the 566-567 resistance will hold, but the advdec line still isn't giving any confirmation that my guess is likely correct. None at all yet, so the churning could go on.

Jonathan Levinson : 9/26/2005 11:36:23 AM

The wavelet bounce is over for QQQQ, failing below 38.98 and hopefully setting up for a renewed test of 38.90 as the wavelet downphase kicks off: Link

Jeff Bailey : 9/26/2005 11:30:59 AM

All equity indices in U.S. Market Watch currently green.

DIA $104.77 +0.64%, SPX 1,220 +0.41%, QQQQ $38.94 +0.49%, SOX.X 465.07 +0.94%, BIX.X 341.44 +0.31%

Airline (XAL.X) $41.47 +2.16%, Networking (NWX.X) 234.44 +2.05%, HMO Index (HMO.X) 1,624 +1.28% and Natural Gas (XNG.X) 419.15 +1.09%

Jeff Bailey : 9/26/2005 11:25:19 AM

Additional Existing Home Sales data ... Month's supply for August rose to 4.7 from July's 4.6. Regional had Northeast at 1.21 vs. 1.19 (July 2005), Midwest 1.64 vs. 1.61 (July 2005), South 2.74 vs. 2.75 (July 2005), West 1.69 vs. 1.60 (July 2005).

Median price for an existing home was up to $220,000 from July's $216,000. Average price was $268,000 vs. $267,000 for July.

Jonathan Levinson : 9/26/2005 11:22:45 AM

An overdue wavelet upphase is getting poor traction here for QQQQ, weaker than I'd expected. I'm still nervous about the tight stop on our short from 38.99 at the open, but so far it continues to hold. If QQQQ fails below 39.00 here, we should see a more aggressive test of the 38.90 support that's been holding for the past hour. Link

Jonathan Levinson : 9/26/2005 11:19:42 AM

Crude oil is -.8 here at 63.40, natgas -.305 at 12.38.

Linda Piazza : 9/26/2005 11:19:02 AM

OEX still churning. There's nothing much else to be said, or perhaps that should be said right now, as it's dangerous to microanalyze at this point. I'm still guessing that resistance will likely hold, but still watching for the slightest sign that it's through challenging resistance. Haven't gotten confirmation of that yet. It may not come before a rollover, but that's okay if a play is missed, if the risk is too great to consider it. Another good play will come along.

Jeff Bailey : 9/26/2005 11:13:36 AM

11:00 Internals found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 9/26/2005 11:13:02 AM

Volume breadth is at +2.86:1 for the NYSE, +1.85:1 for the Nasdaq here.

Jonathan Levinson : 9/26/2005 11:12:29 AM

Ten year note yields are up 4.1 bps at 4.289% here, IRX up 2.9 bps at 3.419%.

Jonathan Levinson : 9/26/2005 11:10:35 AM

Headlines:

PRESIDENT BUSH: FEDERAL OFFICIALS TO CUT NONESSENTIAL TRAVEL

BUSH URGES PUBLIC TO CONSERVE ENERGY

PRESIDENT BUSH: EXPLANDED USE OF DIESEL FUEL WILL BE ALLOWED

PRESIDENT BUSH: U.S. NEEDS ADDITIONAL REFINING CAPACITY

PRESIDENT BUSH TO WORK WITH CONGRESS TO ADD NEW REFINERIES

Linda Piazza : 9/26/2005 11:10:05 AM

OEX still coiling. On a Keltner basis, nearby resistance holds, with nearby Keltner support, from 564.14-564.36 holding only tentatively. If that should break on a 15-minute close, a retest of 562.75-563.02 looks possible, although not yet probable with the advdec line behaving as it is. The advdec line still hasn't given confirmation that the OEX has finished testing resistance yet. My presumption is still that 566-567 resistance will hold.

Jeff Bailey : 9/26/2005 11:05:03 AM

11:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 9/26/2005 11:06:49 AM

Headlines:

PRESIDENT BUSH: 1.56 MILLION BARRELS OF OIL IN GULF SHUT IN

PRESIDENT BUSH: WILLING TO USE OIL RESERVES TO AID PRODUCERS

PRESIDENT BUSH: STORM AFFECTED ABILITY TO MOVE GASOLINE

PRESIDENT BUSH: COLONIAL PIPELINE AT 52% CAPACITY

PRESIDENT BUSH: EXPLORER PIPELINE AT 67% CAPACITY

PRESIDENT BUSH: WILL CONTINUE FUEL WAIVERS THORUGHOUT U.S.

Jonathan Levinson : 9/26/2005 10:58:35 AM

QQQQ update at this Link with price holding between 38.90-39.00. 72 SMA support is up to 38.85, below which a new 30 min cycle downphase should kick off. The pattern up here looks like a bullish pennant, but the cycle picture continues to look for an intraday decline, overdue since Friday.

Linda Piazza : 9/26/2005 10:58:24 AM

OEX still churns.

Linda Piazza : 9/26/2005 10:58:05 AM

The RUT and SOX have been strong performers today, both rising into a congestion of MA's on the daily chart, with the RUT currently testing its 10-sma and 30-sma, with the 50-sma waiting above, and those averages ranging from 662.25-665.92. The SOX didn't quite make it up to that same river of MA's, with those ranging from 468.35-470.24 and the SOX HOD at 467.08. The SOX is currently near the midpoint of the day's range, but hasn't closed this morning's gap, so presents a mixture of evidence.

Linda Piazza : 9/26/2005 10:54:08 AM

Today, the BIX has risen to rest the bottom of its broadening formation, from the underside. Again, presumed strong resistance.

Tab Gilles : 9/26/2005 10:53:42 AM

20+ Year Treasury Bond Fund iShare (TLT) Back down to the 120-ema again. Link

Linda Piazza : 9/26/2005 10:53:25 AM

Just noted that the RLX has been challenging its converging 200-sma and -ema's this morning, with that presumably strong resistance for the RLX. This RLX retest has perhaps been in the making, with these averages also currently just below the neckline for the RLX's confirmed H&S. Again, the presumption is that this resistance will hold, but if the RLX is able to pop above those averages and isn't quickly slapped back, it could gain further and propel the OEX higher, too.

Linda Piazza : 9/26/2005 10:50:23 AM

Advdec still climbing. OEX Keltner resistance at 565.59-565.82 still holds, with the OEX currently headed back down to retests 564.13-564.37 support. Still just chopping around, although my best guess is still that 566-567-ish resistance will hold. The action of the advdec line just doesn't give any credence to that guess just yet.

Jonathan Levinson : 9/26/2005 10:46:59 AM

This bounce is occurring from a higher low and runs a better chance of hitting our tight 39.04 QQQQ stop. I'm going to leave it where it is, and am feeling stubborn with the short cycle now maxxed out, as are the 30 and 60 min cycles.

Jeff Bailey : 9/26/2005 10:50:51 AM

Update of Gulf Coast Operations Affected by Hurricane Rita ... DJ- Conn's Inc. (CONN) $28.91 +7.83% ... sustained minimal damage with 50%-55% operational as of Sunday. All of its distribution centers and service facilities, except for the Beaumont, Texas, location, are operational. All facilities in the affected areas will become operational when city services are restored. Its headquarters sustained minimal damage, but no damage occurred to the company's computer and telecommunications facilities.

Englobal (ENG) $8.29 -4.6% ... The company hasn't received reports of flood damage to any of its Gulf Coast locations, but at least two buildings sustained wind damage. Englobal expects the storm will hurt its financial performance because of lost billing revenue and anticipated gross profits between the time of evacuation and resumption of normal operations. The company expects its insurance will cover the majority of the physical damage to its property and any subsequent relocation. Englobal will pay deductibles and may be required to incur costs that are in excess of its insurance coverage.

Pilgrim's Pride (PPC) $35.15 +0.51% ... Saw virtually no damage to company-owned facilities and minimal damage to its contracted growing facilities. Number of chickens lost was insignificant to operations.

Westlake Chemical (WLK) $27.73 +1.94% ... Its petrochemical complex in Lake Charles, La., sustained minor physical damage from the hurricane. The plant is shut down and awaits restoration of utilities and feed-stock supplies. The company's vinyls plant in Geismar, La., suffered minimal storm-related damage. The sites await restoration of natural gas service in order to resume normal operations.

end update

Jonathan Levinson : 9/26/2005 10:45:22 AM

Volume breadth is +3.23:1 for the NYSE, +2.64:1 for the Nasdaq. TRIN and TRINQ are neutral at .71 and .78 respectively.

Jeff Bailey : 9/26/2005 10:41:36 AM

Walgreen (WAG) $41.39 -2.63% ... Lower after the drugstore-chain said Q4 net rose to $329 million, or $0.32 a share, including pre-tax charge of $54.7 million related to Hurricane Katrina. Excluding items, EPS would have come in at $0.35, below the $0.37 consensus. Sales were up 11% to $10.49 billion vs. year ago quarter.

Linda Piazza : 9/26/2005 10:40:12 AM

The OEX is still just chopping mostly within the 563.60-566 zone, but staying above the 200-ema. The advdec line continues to show bearish divergence, but so far holds support. Bears would need to see it below +1100, at least, and sustaining values below that, before any change in tenor was established.

Jeff Bailey : 9/26/2005 10:37:33 AM

Tommy Hilfiger (TOM) $17.74 +4.41% ... higher on speculation that Wal-Mart (WMT) $43.68 +1.11% is a potential suitor for the company and could start its due diligence analysis by week's end. Women's Wear Daily fueled the speculation, saying financial and industry sources see the deal happening.

Jonathan Levinson : 9/26/2005 10:37:13 AM

Ten year note yields hold their gains, TNX up 4.2 bps at 4.29%. 13 week bill yields (IRX) are up 4.8 bps at 3.438%.

Jeff Bailey : 9/26/2005 10:33:28 AM

Boeing (BA) $65.70 +3.95% ... sharply higher and challenging its 50-day SMA ($65.81) in early session trade after the company said it and its Machinists union have reached a tentative contract agreement, which if approved would end a three-week strike that shut down the company's airplane production. Union members will vote on the deal Thursday.

Linda Piazza : 9/26/2005 10:31:56 AM

Despite that early and steep pullback in the advdec line, support held, suggesting that the OEX would go on challenging resistance, as I've suggested today. I'm watching closely for signs of a rollover in progress, but haven't seen a definitive sign in the advdec line yet. On the OEX's 15-minute Keltner chart, the OEX is still finding resistance at the Keltner lines at 565.50-565.73, but has climbed above the important mid-channel line at 564.35, perhaps converting that potential resistance into support. Yet each punch up toward 566-566.50 resistance determined from other means has so far gotten slapped back. As I said earlier, my best guess is that we'll see some chop now until final direction is chosen, with possibly continued testing of 566-567 resistance, but that my best guess is also that the resistance would hold. Bulls need to protect profits and bears need to look for definitive signs of a rollover before they even consider a bearish play. It just hasn't happened yet, or at least isn't visible from the signs I watch. I see lots of bearish divergences, but no failure of the advdec line to go along with them.

Tab Gilles : 9/26/2005 10:28:13 AM

Murphy Oil (MUR) & $WTIC From yesterday's post: Link

MUR: Link

Jonathan Levinson : 9/26/2005 10:22:05 AM

Our QQQQ short is back to breakeven now, after being up as much as 16 cents at the low. If they hit the stop, so be it, but the 30/60 min/ daily cycle setup suggests that we should have seen the top at the open.

Linda Piazza : 9/26/2005 10:21:49 AM

Advdec line again testing possible resistance, but possible light resistance.

Jeff Bailey : 9/26/2005 10:21:01 AM

WEEKLY/MONTHLY Pivot Matrix found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 9/26/2005 10:18:48 AM

OEX still chopping around or consolidating about where I thought it would. See my 9:58:41 post.

Jeff Bailey : 9/26/2005 10:18:11 AM

Current OPEN MM Profiles found at this Link

Tab Gilles : 9/26/2005 10:18:16 AM

$NDX As I wrote Friday (9/23 6:44PM) entereda 1/2 position short $NDX USPIX fund. Having made that decision just after the close, so I couldn't factor in the total effects of Hurricane Rita at that point. However, as stated in that mornings post (8:04AM) I'd outlined my trade plan. I'm now watching the 50-ma, MACD on the $NDX, seeing similarities to mid-June. Also, keeping watch on the daily and weekly $NASI. Link Link Link Link

Jeff Bailey : 9/26/2005 10:16:55 AM

Buy Program Premium ... DIA $104.87, SPX 1,221.25, QQQQ $38.98

Linda Piazza : 9/26/2005 10:14:43 AM

The top of the ascending regression channel (bear flag?) in which the OEX climbs is at about 566. The 50% retracement of the last steep drop is at about 566.30. Many moving averages on the daily chart converge near 566.46, up to 567.31. That looks like strong resistance on these measures and by other evidence, such as Keltner evidence. Unfortunately, the advdec line hasn't given strong evidence, or any evidence, that support is failing, so I'm still not certain that the OEX is through testing that overhead resistance.

Jonathan Levinson : 9/26/2005 10:12:29 AM

QQQQ's short cycle upphase has yet to stall, showing just a potential negative divergence if price fails to make a new high on this bounce. I'm leaving the 39.04 stop in place, and will hope that the Fed's big 10B repo add doesn't power the price back to a new high.

Jeff Bailey : 9/26/2005 10:11:57 AM

10:00 Internals found at this Link

Friday's Internals found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 9/26/2005 10:10:19 AM

OEX still trying to bounce or chop around. Advdec line needs to drop below about +900 before bears believe that there's even the slightest change in tenor. It's at +1434 as I type, according to QCharts.

Jonathan Levinson : 9/26/2005 10:09:41 AM

Crude oil is down .725 here at 63.475, natgas -.39 at 12.295.

Jonathan Levinson : 9/26/2005 10:08:05 AM

QQQQ's 72 SMA is up to 38.78 here, and the 30 min channel has yet to turn back down: Link

Linda Piazza : 9/26/2005 10:05:18 AM

OEX attempting a bounce, as I suspected it might. (Note: that bounce was over before I uploaded the post.) I think this could be the beginning of a period in which the OEX chops around near the 15-minute 100/130-ema's and the daily 200-ema. As I look at the Keltner chart, 564.34-565.43 resistance looks strong. The support at 562.68-563.36 may be strong enough to keep the OEX testing that resistance for a bit longer, however, which supports the idea of some choppiness. Unless the OEX can produce 15-minute closes above that resistance level, however, I would suppose that it's likely to hold and the OEX is likely to eventually roll down and test 562-562.40 support. A breakdown there would likely see a retest of the 559-560 support level. I'm just not sure that the test of the resistance is yet concluded.

Jeff Bailey : 9/26/2005 10:03:18 AM

10:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 9/26/2005 10:03:31 AM

Headlines:

U.S. AUG. EXISTING HOME SALES UP 2% TO 7.29 MLN

U.S. AUG. EXISTING HOME SALES ABOVE CONSENSUS OF 7.11 MLN

U.S. REALTORS: KATRINA IMPACT ON HOUSING UNCLEAR FOR MONTHS

U.S. AUG. EXISTING HOME SALES SECOND HIGHEST RATE ON RECORD

Linda Piazza : 9/26/2005 9:59:46 AM

OEX falling beneath the 200-ema and the 15-minute 100/130-ema's, but still within testing range of those averages. I may have missed the high of the day, but even now the possibility of a bounce back up to retest resistance exists.

Linda Piazza : 9/26/2005 9:58:40 AM

Here's what I would expect today: I would expect a period of time when the OEX chops around near 563.80-566 before it decides on direction. I would expect the 566-567 resistance to hold. Maybe it already has, on its only test. The advdec line is now dropping more heavily, but toward support from +930 to +1260. It's testing that now, at +1300.

Jonathan Levinson : 9/26/2005 9:57:55 AM

10B overnight repo from the Fed, all net add with no expiries, driving the stop out rate down to 3.67, off its 3.75% target rate.

Jeff Bailey : 9/26/2005 9:54:10 AM

Delphi (DPH) $2.88 -17.05% ....

Delphi Trust I 8.25% (DPH-A) $9.80 -8.83% ...

Linda Piazza : 9/26/2005 9:50:25 AM

The OEX is consolidating along the 15-minute 100/130-ema's, and hasn't pulled back below them yet. It's still testing. Those are at 563.87 and 564.58. I'm getting mixed signal today, but the reality is that the OEX hit the top of the flag formation and has pulled back from that. The advdec line has pulled back, too, but only toward next possible support. The picture is one of a downturn just where one might be expected, but the still existing possibility that the OEX could find support and push up toward the top of that channel again. A mixed picture. This could have been a pop-and-drop morning and we may have missed the beginning of the drop, but with the possiblity of another bounce up from support, I'd rather miss a possible play than jump into a bearish play on a presumed rollover, only to see the OEX push up toward 567.

Jonathan Levinson : 9/26/2005 9:47:30 AM

Volume breadth +2.97:1 on the NYSE, +2.89:1 on the Nasdaq.

Jeff Bailey : 9/26/2005 9:46:00 AM

Fed's Bieas ... Continued high oil prices will hurt consumer spending, but believes US inflation less sensitive to oil than 1970s. Rita's impact on energy sector less than feared.

Jeff Bailey : 9/26/2005 9:43:27 AM

Bearish swing trade short lower stop alert ... for Delphi (DPH) $3.09 -10.69% ... to $3.45.

Jonathan Levinson : 9/26/2005 9:42:46 AM

Headlines from the National Association of Business Economists:

NABE: HOUSE-PRICE GAIN TO SLOW TO 4.8% NEXT YEAR FROM 10%

NABE: DOLLAR TO FALL UP TO 10% VS. CHINA'S YUAN NEXT YEAR

NABE POLL: BEN BERNANKE SEEN LIKELY TO REPLACE GREENSPAN

NABE SEES U.S. UNEMPLOYMENT RATE HOLDING NEAR 5% IN '05, '06

NABE PEGS 2005 U.S. GDP AT 3.5%, SEES 3.4% IN 2006

NABE UPS U.S. GROWTH FORECAST FROM MAY POLL DESPITE KATRINA

NABE SEES U.S. CORE CPI AT 2.3% IN 2005, DOWN FROM MAY POLL

Jonathan Levinson : 9/26/2005 9:39:47 AM

They missed the stop on our short by 1 cent, with QQQQ down to a session low here at 38.91. We need to see south of the 72 SMA at 38.75 to trigger the overdue 30 min cycle downphase.

Linda Piazza : 9/26/2005 9:39:33 AM

I'm watching the advdec line for any sign of a pullback, and I'm not seeing it yet. The OEX is approaching level from which a pullback might occur, but the advdec line isn't showing it yet.

Linda Piazza : 9/26/2005 9:38:52 AM

The OEX is still within the rising regression channel off Thursday's low. It's approaching the top of that channel, so unless it's going to break out to the upside, gains should slow from 566-566.30, or the OEX could even roll down through the bear-flag channel.

Jonathan Levinson : 9/26/2005 9:36:46 AM

Volume breadth is down to +4.49:1 on the NYSE, +5.55:1 on the Nasdaq now.

Jonathan Levinson : 9/26/2005 9:35:07 AM

Volume breadth currently 9:1 on the Nasdaq, 4.37:1 on the NYSE in favor of advancing volume.

Jonathan Levinson : 9/26/2005 9:33:59 AM

Here's the setup on this QQQQ short, tight stop only based on the toppy 30 and 60 min cycles and upside channel breach: Link

Linda Piazza : 9/26/2005 9:34:15 AM

The OEX charged right up to that 565 upside target on the Keltner charts. No sign of a rollover just yet, and if it gets purchase here, it could continue to bound from this area, up toward 566-567.

Jonathan Levinson : 9/26/2005 9:32:29 AM

QQQQ - Entry Point Alert -

Short QQQQ at 38.99, stop 39.04

Jonathan Levinson : 9/26/2005 9:21:13 AM

Bitter disagreements over global economic policy broke out into the open yesterday as the French Finance Minister claimed that Alan Greenspan had admitted America had "lost control" of its budget while China warned the US to drop demands for radical economic policy changes.

In an extraordinary revelation after a meeting between Thierry Breton and Mr Greenspan, M. Breton told reporters: "'We have lost control,' that was his [Mr Greenspan's] expression.

"The US has lost control of their budget at a time when racking up deficits has been authorised without any control [from Congress]," M. Breton said.

"We were both disappointed that the management of debt is not a political priority today. The situation that is creating tension today on the currency market ... is clearly the American deficit."

Link

Jonathan Levinson : 9/26/2005 9:19:07 AM

QQQQ's 30 and 60 min cycles are overbought and on the verge of trending if the bulls can hold these gains past the 1st hour. The daily cycle downphase continues to decline, not yet oversold, and QQQQ 39 is 22 day EMA resistance, just above Friday's R2. The short cycle should be peaking here, and there's a decent chance of a gap & crap open.

Jeff Bailey : 9/26/2005 9:07:29 AM

Program Trading Levels for Monday ... HL Camp & Company has their computers set for program buying at $+6.86 and set for program selling at $+4.06.

Linda Piazza : 9/26/2005 9:00:29 AM

Friday, the OEX mostly chopped around underneath the 200-ema although it did briefly violate that average to the upside. It looks to me as if it's doing its OEX-thing, moving big and then forming a 4-6-point consolidation range. This one looks as if it's forming below the 200-ema, now at 563.78, with support near 559.25 or so. The actual Keltner channel boundaries that may now describe the range are just under 565 and just above 560. For now, then, those in bearish trades on rollovers beneath the 200-ema need to take partial profit and ratchet down stops on the position as the 559.25-560-ish zone is approached, if it is, and those in bullish trades need to do the same as the 200-ema is approached, or perhaps even take full credit. Because this consolidation pattern is forming beneath the 200-ema after a steep fall, the presumption might be that the OEX will eventually break to the downside out of that pattern, so some might elect the partial-credit-and-ratchet-down-stops option as the lower boundaries of the possible consolidation zone are approached.

Friday, the OEX ended squarely on the ascending trendline off the Thursday low, and futures are higher, so the presumption might be that we'll see a test of the 200-ema again. I'll look at internals as the market opens, to see, but unless one was long as of Friday afternoon, there's really not enough cushion between any upside opening and that 200-ema to feel comfortable suggesting a long entry at the open. Any long from Friday should protect profits at the level of the 200-sma up to that 565 level and bears should watch for rollover potential from that zone. On any sustained move above the 200-sma and particularly on 15-minute closes above the Keltner line currently just under 565, there's the chance the OEX could run up to the averages grouping between 566.30-567.00, so don't presume a rollover until there's evidence to support that possibility.

Keene Little : 9/26/2005 8:57:41 AM

Jonathan, I have to run the browser version of MM so I'm not sure if that makes any difference. And why rebooting my computer would make a difference in getting the linked charts to work properly, I have no idea but it did.

Linda Piazza : 9/26/2005 8:43:42 AM

I'm okay with electricity here. Despite the dire predictions, we got only some blustery winds and an overcast sky. My husband and brother-in-law and sister-in-law were out in our kayaks yesterday, if that tells you anything about the weather.

Our relatives are from Port Arthur, however, Petroleumville, as Jim said this weekend, and have been avidly watching news reports. This morning, we're finally seeing some overhead shots from their area. Valero Refinery seems to be the only refinery that took a hit that's going to require some time to repair, but the lack of utilities will hurt many more. Many have their own generators, of course, although the plant where my brother-in-law works does not. However, manpower will continue to be of concern, as no return plan has yet been formulated for the hard-hit Beaumont/Port Arthur area. While Houston-area evacuees now have a schedule by which to return, Beaumont/Port Arthur residents are still being asked to stay away.

Jonathan Levinson : 9/26/2005 8:41:25 AM

Keene, I haven't been able to see the MM charts for a long time.

Jonathan Levinson : 9/26/2005 8:22:39 AM

Ten year note yields are up 2.7 bps here at 4.275%, with ZN bonds down 17/64 at 110 13/32.

Jonathan Levinson : 9/26/2005 8:14:27 AM

From that article:

"Greenspan believes that now we've overcome all the peaks of the risks of those storms ... (and) Katrina and Rita have exhausted their influence on the oil market already," he told a small group of reporters through a translator.

Jonathan Levinson : 9/26/2005 8:05:58 AM

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan told Russian Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin that risks to the oil market from a pair of U.S. hurricanes have peaked, and pressure on refineries should ease, the Russian minister said on Sunday.

Link

Jonathan Levinson : 9/26/2005 8:03:24 AM

Mark, I received an email from Linda confirming that she and her family are OK. Electricity is sketchy, however, and she may be in and out today.

Jonathan Levinson : 9/26/2005 7:47:59 AM

Equities are trying to rally with ES trading 1226.5, NQ 1592.5, YM 10503 and QQQQ +.19 at 38.94. Gold is down 3 at 464.3, silver -.065 at 7.27, ten year notes -9/32 at 110 25/64, crude oil -.15 at 64.05 and natgas +.005 at 12.69. Equities cratered in the premarket after Katrina, bottoming at the cash open before kicking off a 2 week rally. Here, it appears that the premarket is frontrunning it- either that, or it's a distribution gap being set up for a post-cash selloff.

We await the 10AM release of Existing Home Sales, est. 7.11M, prior 7.16M.

Linda Piazza : 9/26/2005 7:32:27 AM

Good morning. The Nikkei surged to four-year highs last night, with all other Asian markets gaining, too. Most European markets are in the green. As of 6:36 EST, gold was lower by $1.76 to $465.50, and crude, down by $0.58 to $63.61. At that same time, our futures were higher. More detail about Asian and European markets follows in succeeding paragraphs.

With crude oil dropping, the Nikkei opened just above the 13,180-13,225 resistance zone some had been watching last week, and then charged higher. By mid-morning in the Nikkei's session, the Nikkei Net Interactive was touting a fresh more-than-four-year high, with the Nikkei pushed higher by steel companies and automakers. The Nikkei was to climb straight into the closing bell, however, rising 233.27 points or 1.77%, to a close of 13,392.63. In general, exporters performed well, although Sony dropped in early trading, with investors having their first chance in Japan to react to the company's restructuring plan, announced Thursday after the close. Energy-related issues declined.

July-September's corporate survey resulted in a rise to 6.4 from the previous -2.4 for big manufacturers' business sentiment. October-December's was reported at +11.1 and January-March's at +9.0. Big non-manufacturers' climbed to +11.7 from the previous -2.3, and was reported at +10.4 for October-December, and +10.2 for January-March. The all-industries capex plan for the current fiscal year increased +11.0 year-over-year. Perhaps near the close, August's supermarket sales were released, falling 2.9% year over year, the 18th month in a row of declines. Department store sales fell 0.7% year over year, down from July's 1.1% year-over-year rise. In another development, Prime Minister's Koizumi's postal privatization bill, the cause of a government shakeup and election, was passed, with enactment slated for mid-October. Political conflict wasn't ended, however, as Japan's efforts to increase monitoring China's activities in the disputed East China Sea's gas fields was in the news.

All other Asian markets rose. The Taiwan Weighted gained 0.08%, and South Korea's Kospi, already hitting record highs last week, rose 2.60%. Singapore's Straits Times climbed 1.07%, and Hong Kong's Hang Seng gained 0.86%. China's Shanghai Composite climbed 0.27%. China's central bank chief Xiaochuan had spoken at a dinner speech associated with the IMF/World Bank's annual meeting, and said that the country's guiding principle for its exchange rate regime was a gradual change. The IMF's Asia Director Burton was of the opinion that the China's forex decision to widen the yuan's trading band against some Asian currencies was a technical one as China works its way through a cautious new currency regime.

European markets turn in positive performances this morning as market watchers get their first look at the post-Rita impact and find it less than had been feared. Insurance, resource and chemical shares tended to rebound. Bear Stearns analysts concluded that the impact to European reinsurers would likely not be significant "from a balance sheet perspective," according to a Marketwatch.com article. BASF rebounded after it was concluded that its Port Arthur plant was probably not significantly damaged. This weekend, the ECB's Weber spoke about inflation risks in an interview, saying that higher oil prices and liquidity in monetary policy are increasing those risks. The ECB's Liikanen had spoken at the IMF meeting in Washington, also noting the impact of soaring energy prices, saying those prices could slow growth and raise inflation. He noted that the ECB would have to be vigilant for second-round effects, noting that the current low interest rates would not be maintained forever. The U.K.'s Chancellor Brown said that consumer spending had slowed in Europe, as expected, and that U.K. exports were a concern. Last week, he had noted that economic growth forecasts for the U.K. for 2005 might be downgraded. A WSJ report quotes Germany's Chancellor Schroeder as considering a grand coalition with his opponent's faction, but not as being willing to give up being leader of the country.

Stock-specific news included a drop in Porsche related to its decision to increase its stake in Volkswagen, and Vokswagen's gain after an initial drop. Speculation this weekend that Deutsche Telekom might buy O2 sent O2 higher in London. Other deals were in the works, including German utility's E.ON's deal to buy U.K. gas production company Caledonia Oil and Gas Ltd., with a resultant gain in the acquirer, and ABN Amro's takeover of Italy's Banca Antonveneta SpA, with ABN Amro gaining as this move ended takeover battle that had lasted a year. British Airways named a new CFO and British building materials company Wolseley named a new CEO and reported earnings. BA gained but Wolseley dropped. Dutch retailer Ahold will gain BA's former CFO as its new CFO, and Nestle will have a new CFO, too. Both companies gained in early trading. Also in the news was Cap Gemini, surging more than 3% higher in early trading after Merrill Lynch upgraded the stock to a buy rating.

Italy's July industrial orders climbed 3.6% month over month, the largest month-over-month increase in almost two years. Although domestic orders rose, it was the 5.8% rise in foreign orders that led to the higher-than-expected result. Industrial sales rose 1.8% month over month.

As of 7:21 EST, the FTSE 100 was higher by 29.00 points or 0.54%, at 5,442.60. The CAC 40 was higher by 72.82 points or 1.63%, at 4,550.02. The DAX was higher by 93.67 points or 1.92%, at 4,976.25. Some are trading sideways, some, sideways down after an earlier high.

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