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Tab Gilles : 9/30/2005 12:51:20 AM

NASDAQ100 $NDX As stated on 9/23/05 8:04AM MM post I've been monitoring several technical points on the $NDX and $NASI.I had taken a partial 1/2 position via the Profunds USPIX fund. For Friday 30th, I'm looking to see if the $NDX can stay above it's 50-ma which was the next technical level to trade. The $NDX barely closed above that level Thursday. Link

Nasdaq Summation $NASI On the daily chart it turned bullish Thursday. Link

Also on the $NDX chart the 3 MACD are signaling bullish. Link QQQQ.... Link ....*NOTE the up volume.

Even though on the weekly $NASI chart (which tends to be a lagging indicator) it has not yet given a bullish/buy signal. Link Link

Let's see what Friday brings!

OI Technical Staff : 9/29/2005 9:59:59 PM

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Jeff Bailey : 9/29/2005 7:48:33 PM

Weekly/Monthly Pivot Matrix at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 9/29/2005 7:12:12 PM

Closing U.S. Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 9/29/2005 6:54:27 PM

Closing Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 9/29/2005 6:35:43 PM

Booo yaaaah! on the airlines. (at least for those that need labor concessions or need to go bankrupt to get them)

Jeff Bailey : 9/29/2005 6:33:04 PM

Boooo yaaaaah!

Jeff Bailey : 9/29/2005 6:14:32 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles found at this Link ... Today's Activity ... Swing traded long 1/2 bullish position in shares of Yellow Roadway (YELL) at the offer of $40.71, stop for now is $39.90 with a target of Floyd Little ($44.00)

Linda Piazza : 9/29/2005 3:59:24 PM

I don't know about the rest of you, but I'm glad this day is over. The OEX is ending the day at the 200-sma and just below the important 72-ema. It's likely ending the day below 30-minute Keltner resistance at 567.24 on 30-minute closes, but above 15-minute support. The advdec line is ending at an extreme level for the movement, but that starts over tomorrow morning, since it's a daytrading tool only.

Jonathan Levinson : 9/29/2005 3:56:46 PM

QQQQ looks to close near the top of the 30 and 60 min cycle channels. The next significant move in these key timeframes should be to the downside tomorrow morning, and the strength or weakenss of that move should rule on the viability of the new daily cycle upphase. Unless the bears can really drill the price back down tomorrow morning/early afternoon, a new daily cycle upphase will confirm.

Linda Piazza : 9/29/2005 3:53:12 PM

OEX traders, you have some decisions to make this afternoon. I've already suggested long ago that those in bullish trades consider taking partial profit at least, if not full profit, as the OEX tests the 200-sma, so presumably those who wanted to follow that plan have done so, and I won't irritate the rest of you by repeating the suggestion. But what about a bearish play on the possibility that the climb has been overdone and the OEX might retreat at least some tomorrow morning? I can look at some charts and say, sure, looks like a reasonable idea. So far, this week's candle hasn't retraced more than 50% of last week's tall red candle, so we're still in the bearish half of last week's range. The OEX is currently near the midline bisecting its broadening formation, having moved up to test that midline, so that looks okay, too, although it's certainly not strong corroboration. The BIX sprang up, but only to retest the bottom of its former broadening formation, and it hasn't been able to break back inside it. The RLX this week retested its 200-sma and remains below it, including after today's zoom higher, so that looks okay, too. The SOX looks as if it will end the day below its 50-sma, for all its gains, and perhaps beneath the 38.2% retracement of its drop off its September high, so that's an okay validation that this might be a good place to attempt a bearish play. But the TRAN has definitely broken out of its descending regression channel, rising straight up toward 3726-ish resistance, with the TRAN currently at 3714.16 and showing a tall (and perhaps a bit suspicious, in light of what's happening with energy costs?) white candle, and I really don't understand at this point what drove the markets higher. Since yesterday afternoon, there's been a lot of shooting one direction or the other without a lot of prior corroboration of the move. I don't usually see that happen quite so often in a row. So I'm left uncertain and so unwilling to call it one direction or the other. I don't think we'll sell off much into the close, however, not with a lot of surprised shorts trying to cover.

Linda Piazza : 9/29/2005 3:39:07 PM

OEX turning toward 565.78-566.17 Keltner support on 15-minute closes. OEX at 566.67.

Jonathan Levinson : 9/29/2005 3:36:31 PM

Great entry, Mark. I was waiting for that channel test, but it never came.

Linda Piazza : 9/29/2005 3:35:08 PM

No real change in tenor yet for the advdec line. It's showing some signs of flattening, but it will take a move below about 1340 to begin to change its tenor. It's at 1925 as I type, with the OEX currently dipping back below the 50% retracement of the decline off the 9/09 high.

Linda Piazza : 9/29/2005 3:25:32 PM

No change in tenor in the advdec line yet.

Linda Piazza : 9/29/2005 3:25:08 PM

OEX now at the 50% retracement of the decline off the 9/09 high, with that at about 567.14 and the OEX at 567.11.

Jonathan Levinson : 9/29/2005 3:24:48 PM

QQQQ approaches 30 min channel resistance, already above the 60 min channel top: Link

Jeff Bailey : 9/29/2005 3:23:38 PM

Word of caution for DAY TRADERS of any trucking stocks.

For me, the November Heating Oil (ho05x) contract settled higher than I would have liked it too. If having day traded Yellow (YELL) $41.50 +5.70%, I'd stay more disciplined and close the trade before the close. Had the contract settled below $2.12, then perhaps a hold into tomorrow.

Linda Piazza : 9/29/2005 3:22:40 PM

OEX traders need to remember the OEX's tendency to move big and then consolidate in a 4-6 point range, as they're making the decision a little later this afternoon as to whether they'll hold overnight or not. Of course, a lot depends on where the OEX ends the day, but presuming that it ends the day at the 200-sma or 72-ema, then that range could well be between the 200-sma and back down to the 200-ema. It's a pattern we've seen before, although it could well begin with a doji day tomorrow, and perhaps even a long-legged doji day. Of course, if the OEX ends the day comfortably above the 200-sma and 72-ema (the 72-ema is important, too), then matters might change somewhat. Same if it's slapped back significantly as it now rises into those two averages.

Linda Piazza : 9/29/2005 3:18:57 PM

I think they'll want to close the OEX at or above the 200-sma.

Jonathan Levinson : 9/29/2005 3:17:37 PM

30 min channel resistance is up to 39.25 QQQQ. The channel is flattening, and it will take a strong sustained move to turn it back up from here: Link

Jeff Bailey : 9/29/2005 3:16:25 PM

03:00 Internals found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 9/29/2005 3:13:40 PM

QQQQ's 30 and 60 min cycle indicators continue in their upphases, currently lagging well behind the sharp price move. This lag is a possible bearish divergence, and a sharp one on the 60 min cycle- but it's also a key outside reversal and bullish engulfing print for the day, with a new weekly low follwed by a new weekly high. The intraday cycles should be topping by the close, but that possible bullish setup in the longer daily cycle that I discussed early this morning means extreme caution for bears. If the next intraday downphases tomorrow aren't strong, then it will be time to switch from selling the bounces to buying the dips on QQQQ.

Linda Piazza : 9/29/2005 3:10:45 PM

The push to regain the OEX's 200-sma has been obvious this afternoon, and it's rising again toward that level as I type, but without yet reaching a new HOD. Next Keltner resistance at 566.99 on 30-minute closes.

Linda Piazza : 9/29/2005 3:09:25 PM

Not enough of a change in the advdec line to be significant, I don't think. Not yet. The OEX is so far finding support on the Keltner line at 565.78 rather than dropping beneath it, with the OEX currently at 565.93. No change in tenor yet.

Jeff Bailey : 9/29/2005 3:04:48 PM

03:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 9/29/2005 3:04:43 PM

Slightest change in tenor for the advdec line, but not a significant one as yet. Needs to drop below about 1200 to signify anything beginning to be significant, with the advdec line now at 1720. Without a drop below that levels, there's still every chance of a bounce again.

Linda Piazza : 9/29/2005 3:02:21 PM

OEX breakout on an intermediate term (we know about the daytraders' term already for today) or not? Here's a chart: Link The OEX is below the 50% retracement of the decline off the 9/09 low (I was quoting wrong figures a while ago for that 50% retracement, with the 566.31 level actually the drop off the 9/19 high) and still likely within the rising regression channel, with that possibly a bear flag. It's on the cusp of a breakout beyond today's daytrading one, but I'm not sure we can be sure that it's not going to roll down through that channel again.

Jonathan Levinson : 9/29/2005 2:58:39 PM

Back to find QQQQ rolling over from a triple top at 39.10. Those 3 tests are too flat to qualify as a classic head and shoulders top, but if 38.97 lets go, I'd be willing to call it close enough for government work. A short cycle downphase is in progress, so far getting weak traction, and volume breadth remains strong at +2.53:1 on the NYSE and +2.1:1 on the Nasdaq. Link

Linda Piazza : 9/29/2005 2:53:26 PM

Advdec line testing the support that has prompted bounces since mid-morning, dropping a little beneath it as I type. It's not seriously beneath it, but this is the first time it's dropped any beneath it since the 11:20 candle this morning. This isn't a lot of evidence of any change in tenor, but something to watch.

Linda Piazza : 9/29/2005 2:51:38 PM

OEX testing Keltner support at 565.73, with the OEX at 565.82 as I type. Bulls want this support and particularly that at 564.96, to hold on 15-minute closes. This is the channel that usually contains the OEX.

Linda Piazza : 9/29/2005 2:47:08 PM

OEX still pausing at the 50% retracement of the decline off the 9/09 high, with that at about 566.31. The OEX pulls back after punching above it momentarily, up toward the 200-sma. Bulls who haven't yet taken partial profit need to do so now.

Linda Piazza : 9/29/2005 2:45:34 PM

Well, my worries on behalf of bulls, that we could be seeing a fake-out move like this morning's to the downside were not justified. After the OEX closed a 30-minute period above both its 30-minute 100/130-ema's, it has charged straight up. The advdec line has accompanied and hasn't changed its trend since the 11:20 five-minute candle this morning. A change in that trend would require a close beneath 1730 or so, and that would be just the slightest, first warning of a potential change in trend, and not confirmation. That would require a drop back below about 1150, I'm estimating.

Linda Piazza : 9/29/2005 2:43:16 PM

OEX 200-sma at 566.73, and the also important 72-ema at 566.97. OEX at 566.78 as I type.

Linda Piazza : 9/29/2005 2:42:05 PM

Still no change in trend in the advdec line at all. OEX slipping above the 50% retracement of the steep decline off the 9/09 high, seemingly heading for the 200-sma and 72-ema's. In fact, it's just below them as I type.

Jeff Bailey : 9/29/2005 2:41:59 PM

Buy Program Premium ... DIA $105.40, SPX 1,226.86, QQQQ $39.07

Jeff Bailey : 9/29/2005 2:41:17 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 9/29/2005 2:35:47 PM

A 15-minute OEX close below the Keltner line currently at 565.55 erases the upside target, and particularly on a 15-minute close beneath the line currently at 564.65. None of that has happened as yet. The OEX is at 566.06 as I type, so far finding support on that Keltner line rather than falling beneath it.

Linda Piazza : 9/29/2005 2:32:21 PM

No change in trend in the advdec line at all yet. Still climbing a line currently at 1675, with the advdec line at 1813 as I type, all QCharts values.

Jane Fox : 9/29/2005 2:29:49 PM

These two need to retrace before I will feel comfortable with a short. Link

Jane Fox : 9/29/2005 2:28:12 PM

ER and YM make double tops. ES and NQ don't quite make it to test daily highs.

Jeff Bailey : 9/29/2005 2:27:08 PM

02:00 Internals found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 9/29/2005 2:26:24 PM

The RLX is now within three cents of erasing all yesterday's losses, being within three cents of Tuesday's close . . . oops, made it above that as I typed. The OEX is not going to pull back far as long as the RLX is charging higher. However, the RLX is charging higher into a resistance zone, so watch it.

Linda Piazza : 9/29/2005 2:24:40 PM

The SOX is testing the 38.2% retracement of its steep fall off the 9/13 high. It punched briefly above it, but has now dropped back to retest it. The 50-sma waits above, at the 50% Fib level.

Linda Piazza : 9/29/2005 2:22:10 PM

OEX next Keltner support at 565.44 on 15-minute closes. Target at 569.10, but I'd greet that target with some skepticism. In fact, I advised bulls to take partial profit as the OEX's first Keltner target was approached and I'd advise them now to keep their stops ratcheted up, particularly if the OEX closes a 15-minute period below that Keltner line currently at 565.44, instead of finding support on that line.

Jane Fox : 9/29/2005 2:18:49 PM

Dateline WSJ Judge John Roberts was confirmed as chief justice of the U.S. by the Senate. Roberts will immediately confront several controversial cases, including at least two abortion-related appeals, terrorism matters and the government's lawsuit against the tobacco industry.

Linda Piazza : 9/29/2005 2:16:26 PM

OEX pulling back slightly from the 50% retracement of the last steep decline, off the early September high.

Linda Piazza : 9/29/2005 2:15:00 PM

The OEX will likely close this 15-minute period above the Keltner line currently at 565.39, setting a new upside target of 569.13, but these upside targets have not had a good record of being met. The OEX is at 566.05 as I type.

Linda Piazza : 9/29/2005 2:12:32 PM

The OEX is currently testing the 50% retracement of the last steep decline, with that at 566.32. If you look at a 60-minute chart, you can see the potential that this whole climb off the 9/22 low has been a bear flag, with a 50% retracement only now being tested.

Next advdec line resistance in the +2250 zone, but none of these potential resistance levels have made any difference on the climb. One will.

Jeff Bailey : 9/29/2005 2:09:52 PM

02:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 9/29/2005 2:09:45 PM

The OEX's 200-sma and 72-ema are waiting above at 566.72 and 567.12, respectively. For those bulls who did not take partial profit as the OEX's first Keltner target was being hit, this is another level to consider doing so.

Jeff Bailey : 9/29/2005 2:05:54 PM

S&P Banks Index (BIX.X) intra-day alert 337.20 +1.26%

Jeff Bailey : 9/29/2005 2:03:46 PM

Daily EIA report/update on Hurricane Impact (as of yesterday afternoon) at this Link ... I'm trying to find the "demand" numbers just quoted by CNBC reporter.

Jonathan Levinson : 9/29/2005 2:02:49 PM

I need to step away for an hour here.

Linda Piazza : 9/29/2005 2:02:22 PM

Advdec line flattening beneath next Keltner resistance, but it did this before, during the mid-morning period when it was testing the 30-minute 100-ema for so long. There's no pullback yet. It would have to pull back below +1350 just to suggest a pause, much less a real pullback, which would probably require a drop below +750 or so. It's at +1525 as I type.

Linda Piazza : 9/29/2005 1:56:12 PM

On a Keltner basis, the OEX is clinging to last Keltner support before next support at 563.46, with a drop to that lower level constituting a retest of the 30-minute 100/130-ema if it should happen. Next Keltner resistance currently at 565.13. According to the Keltner channels usually watched, the OEX hasn't broken out yet.

Jeff Bailey : 9/29/2005 1:53:20 PM

S&P Banks (BIX.X) 336.32 +0.99% ... yesterday afternoon, just after 02:00, I noted how the BIX.X "rocketed" off their then session lows. It was at these very levels of trade. Sellers then showed up and pushed the banks right back down to a new 52-week low.

Jonathan Levinson : 9/29/2005 1:49:54 PM

Ten year notes remain weak, TNX +3.2 bps at 4.294%, and IRX is up 4.6 bps at 3.433%, some curve flattening.

Jonathan Levinson : 9/29/2005 1:48:00 PM

At least they overran the stop by 2 cents... had it been "on the nose," that would've made it worse.

Linda Piazza : 9/29/2005 1:47:08 PM

If it wasn't for that OEX break above the 30-minute 100/130-ema's and the daily 200-ema, this would be another Keltner level on both the OEX and the advdec line at which I'd be looking for evidence for a new bearish entry. (That evidence hasn't appeared yet, by the way.) However, although I said earlier that I don't pay that much attention to the OEX prices but rather the actions of the advdec line, I of course do note potential OEX S/R, and the OEX has bumped above resistance that's been holding a long while now, so I am also of course paying attention to that action. I'd have to see some fairly strong corroboration, including a move back below the 30-minute 100-sma but also including certain advdec line action. With all that said, though, I'm still concerned about the possibility that this breakout above the triangle is a fake-out move, just as this morning's below it was.

Jeff Bailey : 9/29/2005 1:46:07 PM

S&P Banks Index (BIX.X) 336.10 +0.92% .... high of session and has edged back above DAILY Pivot (335.00)

Jonathan Levinson : 9/29/2005 1:42:06 PM

They got our tight stop and are back down to the prior lows that supported the initial pullback. QQQQ's short cycle oscillators are pinned to the ceiling and overdue for a decline as the longer intraday cycles continue to rise. Link

Linda Piazza : 9/29/2005 1:39:04 PM

OEX current 556.09 resistance holding so far. The OEX is pulling right back to test the 30-minute 100/130-ema's, a normal-enough action, but bulls don't want to see the OEX below the 100-ema again, with that at 563.76. Advdec line now hitting potentially strong resistance but not yet pulling back.

Jeff Bailey : 9/29/2005 1:34:50 PM

Bullish swing trade long alert for 1/2 bullish position in shares of Yellow Roadway (YELL) $40.71 here, stop $39.90, target $44.00.

Jonathan Levinson : 9/29/2005 1:34:13 PM

Steady improvement in volume breadth, +2.06:1 on the NYSE, +2.1:1 on the Nasdaq.

Linda Piazza : 9/29/2005 1:31:44 PM

OEX testing the 10-sma at 564.63, the average that turned it back on the 9/26 spike higher. You know, I don't trust this breakout any more than I did the one to the downside this morning. However, there has just been a 30-minute close above the 30-minute 130-ema so there's been confirmation of the breakout from that source. The OEX's upside Keltner target is about to be tested next, as the advdec line hits the resistance level that often holds, stronger than resistance tested earlier.

Jane Fox : 9/29/2005 1:32:16 PM

Linda are you getting any of my emails?

Jonathan Levinson : 9/29/2005 1:30:59 PM

QQQQ - Exit Point Alert -

Stopped out QQQQ at 39.10

Linda Piazza : 9/29/2005 1:26:22 PM

At least I feel better about saying that I could not recommend potential rollover plays as the OEX was testing that known resistance. The advdec line just didn't support such a play. Now the advdec line again approaches another area of even stronger potential resistance, at +1440 to + 1510. Be careful here, bulls. No sign of a pullback in the advdec line yet, but this is resistance that often does hold.

Jeff Bailey : 9/29/2005 1:25:43 PM

Dow Transports (TRAN) alert 3,702 +1.25% Link ... Trade at 3,710 could have the trannies hitting high gear.

Linda Piazza : 9/29/2005 1:23:57 PM

New bulls, a position that I didn't recommend, absolutely do not want a quick reversal back through the 30-minute 100-sma at 563.74. No sign of that as yet. As the OEX approaches its first Keltner target, bulls need to consider taking partial profit and ratcheting up stops or even taking full profit, as this is the channel line that usually contains most movements to the upside. Your choice which you do, but I absolutely would at least take partial profits.

Jonathan Levinson : 9/29/2005 1:23:00 PM

QQQQ 3-min chart at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 9/29/2005 1:22:06 PM

QQQQ - Entry Point Alert -

Short QQQQ at 39.06 stop 39.10 just above R2

Linda Piazza : 9/29/2005 1:19:41 PM

I have now corrected my 1:18:30 post to say that there's the "same potential for a fake-out move" instead of "breakout move" to the upside.

Jonathan Levinson : 9/29/2005 1:19:00 PM

That was a huge volume surge, nearly 3M QQQQs within 3 minutes, driving volume breadth to +1.82:1 on the Nasdaq.

Jeff Bailey : 9/29/2005 1:18:49 PM

01:00 Internals found at this Link ... Yesterday's Internals ... found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 9/29/2005 1:18:30 PM

Advdec line still climbing and now setting a potential target up toward +1390. The OEX is tentatively breaking above the neutral triangle's upper resistance as this happens, trading above the 30-minute 100-ema for the first time since 9/20. There's the same potential for a fake-out move here to the upside as there was to the downside earlier, so any tempted to play an upside breakout certainly want to see follow through and a 30-minute close above the 130-ema at 564.32. I won't be one of those playing that right now. For those in bullish OEX plays, the upside target is now 564.91 and you shouldl be considering taking at least partial profit between the current level and that one.

Jonathan Levinson : 9/29/2005 1:15:10 PM

And picking up here. Yesterday's spike high is breaking here for QQQQ.

Jonathan Levinson : 9/29/2005 1:14:31 PM

Session high for QQQ breaking flag resistance, but volume so far is light: Link

Linda Piazza : 9/29/2005 1:06:24 PM

Advdec line now hitting another level of potential resistance, a stronger one. A continued move higher than isn't punched back has the potential to move up toward +1340, but we need to see a how this 15-minute period closes to see whether that's likely or not. This potential for the advdec line to move higher is the reason that I couldn't suggest a bearish OEX play as it was testing that known strong resistance. Wanted to, but couldn't, and we'll find out soon if my reluctance was a good thing or a bad thing as the OEX again rises to test that resistance.

Linda Piazza : 9/29/2005 1:04:23 PM

OEX now trying to bounce along with the advdec line, with the 30-minute 100/130-ema's at 563.71 and 564.30 and with the daily 200-ema at 563.72. These should be strong resistance, but I'm a bit wary this morning because of the fake-out move below the ascending trendline off the 9/22 low, the lower boundary of the OEX's triangle formed after a steep drop. I'm wondering if we won't see at least a fake-out attempt above the upper boundary, now, with that at about the 30-minute 100-ema's level. If so, it would need to be corroborated by a 30-minute close above the 130-ema at 564.31, I would think.

Jeff Bailey : 9/29/2005 1:03:32 PM

01:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 9/29/2005 12:58:56 PM

Advdec line climbing agian.

Jonathan Levinson : 9/29/2005 12:58:39 PM

Stepping away for a few minutes.

Linda Piazza : 9/29/2005 12:57:56 PM

Still the potential for the advec line to climb to about +560, with that at +247 as I type. It's testing resistance that is so far holding, but also following support that is so far holding, so the upward grind is still possible. Essentially, it is stalling at resistance, nudging that resistance a little higher as it, too, climbs, but not able to break about above it just yet.

Jonathan Levinson : 9/29/2005 12:57:55 PM

On a closeup view of today's QQQQ action, see how the most recent pullback off the highs is flatter/weaker than the previous correction from 10:35PM? That looks bullish, as the selling has weakened at higher prices. The short cycle is still due for a downphase, but the bears are going to have to not waste it. A break of the highs/yesterday's highs to 38.95 could be the trigger to send shorts covering. Link

Linda Piazza : 9/29/2005 12:53:44 PM

Since near the close yesterday, the OEX has zoomed all the way down through the neutral triangle (but presumed bearish because it formed after a steep drop) to violate the lower boundary before bouncing and zooming all the way back up through that triangle again and now stalling. The advdec line is doing some stalling, too, but certainly hasn't drawn back and corroborated the idea that it will roll over yet and so keeping alive the possibility of another push higher. And people are having difficulty with this market? I can't imagine why!

Jane Fox : 9/29/2005 12:49:27 PM

Jonathan I was so glad to see your 12:56 post because I am having a horrid time figuring out the market today.

Jonathan Levinson : 9/29/2005 12:49:08 PM

Volume breadth is down to +1.14:1 on the NYSE, +1.3:1 on the Nasdaq.

Linda Piazza : 9/29/2005 12:47:04 PM

The RLX has been trying to bounce today, with likely resistance on daily closes at the 10-sma at 433.75, and with the RLX currently at 431.90 with the high of the day at 433.13 so far.

Jonathan Levinson : 9/29/2005 12:47:00 PM

Thanks, Linda.

The automatic regression lines here suggest that the pullback is a bull flag, but the short cycle indicators suggest an imminent short cycle downphase. A break above QQQQ 38.87 or below 38.76 should be directional- a surge in volume would confirm. Link

Jeff Bailey : 9/29/2005 12:46:36 PM

S&P 100 Index (OEX.X) 562.66 (unch) ... here's a screen capture I took late last night of the 25 most heavily weight OEX stocks, and 25 smallest market cap stocks. Link

Jeff Bailey : 9/29/2005 12:44:39 PM

S&P Banks (BIX.X) 333.46 +0.13% ... still pinned under WEEKLY S1. Daily Pivot just above at 335.00.

SPX 1,218.36.

Linda Piazza : 9/29/2005 12:43:21 PM

Jonathan, I don't think it's just you. See Jonathan's 12:26:23 post. The tools I usually use are not giving so much as a heads-up signal before there's a reversal today and late yesterday, too.

Linda Piazza : 9/29/2005 12:41:14 PM

While I had stepped away, the advdec line came down to test support and bounced from it, back up to test resistance. The OEX did the same, dropping momentarily below the 15-minute 100-ema and then bouncing up a little. Advdec line still testing that resistance. It's still holding. So far. Not sure it will continue to do so.

Jeff Bailey : 9/29/2005 12:31:46 PM

November Heating Oil (ho05x) $2.09 -3.68% ... (30-minute delayed) ... session lows here. Possible "tweezer top" with strong support at $1.84.

Linda Piazza : 9/29/2005 12:30:49 PM

Advdec line resistance still holding, but it's still not pulling back enough to corroborate a bearish entry. Watch for a sustained move below about -150 now (QCharts value). I have to step away for a few minutes.

Jeff Bailey : 9/29/2005 12:28:29 PM

United Parcel (UPS) $69.41 +0.68% Link ... earnings date 10/20/05. Late yesterday, Dell Computer (DELL) $33.93 -0.02% said it is shifting some of its computer deliveries from private parcel shippers (UPS/FDX) to the US Postal Service.

Linda Piazza : 9/29/2005 12:27:01 PM

Advdec line dips, but not enough yet to corroborate a bearish play. OEX's 30-minute 100-ema holds as resistance, but the 15-minute version holds as support. Unfortunately, that corroboration is needed today.

Jonathan Levinson : 9/29/2005 12:26:23 PM

I feel like I'm running 3 minutes behind the action here- the tape feels more confusing than usual today. Probably just me.

Linda Piazza : 9/29/2005 12:24:14 PM

Advdec line resistance tentatively holding still, but the advdec line is still trying to push above it. No pullback yet to signal that a bearish entry would be a good idea. The OEX finds resistance where wanted, but now has the 15-minute 100-ema as potential support.

Jonathan Levinson : 9/29/2005 12:22:29 PM

The current pullback in QQQQ isn't going to do it for bears, as the longer price holds up at the highs, the longer the 30 and 60 min channels have to turn up. 30 min channel support is already above the session low, and the 72 SMA is rising now, up to 38.68. 38.80 is first support. Link

Jeff Bailey : 9/29/2005 12:21:34 PM

FedEx (FDX) $86.20 +1.11% Link ... big test coming up. Stock has held gains since its shocking upside earnings/outlook from 09/21. Bar chart has 200-day SMA at $89.33.

Linda Piazza : 9/29/2005 12:18:55 PM

Advdec line next resistance still holds, but the advdec line doesn't pull back and so maintains the possibility of charging up toward +550 or so before it hits next resistance.

Linda Piazza : 9/29/2005 12:14:54 PM

Advdec line next resistance still holding, but there hasn't been a pullback below about -125 yet and a sustained level below it. OEX pulling back a little from the 30-minute 100-ema at 563.75 and back below the 200-ema. If the OEX leads the advdec line again, as it did earlier, confirmation of a pullback might not come before the pullback actually begins, so if you like to hit known resistance with a bearish play, the OEX is at the right level. Sorry, but it's not a play that I can advise you to take an entry on just yet, as the advdec line isn't cooperating and as it's possible that the OEX will find support on the 15-minute 100/130-ema's now being tested and push higher again. Sometimes you get the corroboration you need and sometimes you don't.

Jeff Bailey : 9/29/2005 12:11:38 PM

12:00 Internals found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 9/29/2005 12:10:06 PM

Advdec stalling at the next resistance, but not really pulling back yet.

Jonathan Levinson : 9/29/2005 12:09:37 PM

Volume breadth is up to +1.1:1 on the NYSE and +1.48:1 on the Nasdaq.

Linda Piazza : 9/29/2005 12:04:40 PM

The OEX's 30-minute 100-ema still holds as resistance, but the advdec line still tentatively holds onto its potential to move higher, with that potential existing until it move back below about -150. Currently at +122. Mixed signals now.

Jeff Bailey : 9/29/2005 12:02:04 PM

12:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 9/29/2005 12:01:49 PM

Crude oil is down 65 cents to 65.70, natural gas -.09 to 14.01 here.

Linda Piazza : 9/29/2005 12:01:26 PM

Looks as if the advdec line is maintaining the potential to move higher, up to about 550 or so.

Jonathan Levinson : 9/29/2005 12:01:13 PM

The 30 and 60 min indicators are lagging the move significantly, but with the daily cycle downphase faltering and bulls testing yesterday's upper confluence, this is a very dangerous spot for bears. Just as there were bull stops at and below yesterday's low, so are there bear stops above the highs. Link

Linda Piazza : 9/29/2005 11:57:04 AM

The OEX hit the 30-minute 100-ema and pulls back, but the climb has been anything but bear flag-like. If you like to hit known resistance with a trial balloon of a play and absolutely know that you'll honor your stops, this is a place to try, but there's absolutely no corroboration yet in the advdec line and it suggests that it could keep climbing and either hold the OEX here or even carry it higher. There's nothing here to suggest a bearish play except that known resistance at the 30-minute 100-ema. Could be all you get, but there's again not enough information here for me to suggest a new entry, either bullish or bearish. There's been a lot of that today, unfortunately.

Jonathan Levinson : 9/29/2005 11:55:55 AM

I had stepped away just long enough to miss the space needle to QQQQ 38.90. It leaves a bearish short cycle divergence if it falls from here, but the bids are so far strong above R1 at 38.83. Link

Linda Piazza : 9/29/2005 11:54:22 AM

Advdec line still charging higher, toward next resistance at +560 or so. It's at +168 as I type.

Linda Piazza : 9/29/2005 11:53:19 AM

The advdec line has popped above the resistance that stopped it earlier this morning, and the OEX has accelerated its climb, too. This is not what bears want to see, and the reason that a breakdown entry was too risky to suggest as a play. However, the advdec line has now moved up to test the level that turned it back twice yesterday, so we'll see. All bets are off right now, because the OEX looks as if it's charging higher, back toward the 30-minute 100-ema and the top of the neutral triangle, to give that a try. The 30-minute 100/130-ema's are at 563.77 and 564.37, respectively.

Tab Gilles : 9/29/2005 11:52:10 AM

$SPX *chart for previous post Link

Jeff Bailey : 9/29/2005 11:51:49 AM

Buy Program Premium ... DIA $104.72, SPX 1,217.91, QQQQ $38.82

Jeff Bailey : 9/29/2005 11:50:05 AM

Pepsico (PEP) $56.65 +2.88% Link ...

Linda Piazza : 9/29/2005 11:47:05 AM

Keltner picture for the OEX: The OEX is currently testing first Keltner resistance at 561.20 on 15-minute closes. The rise from the LOD looks a bit bear flag-like on the 15-minute chart, but bears certainly want this resistance to hold on 15-minute closes. Next resistance at 561.97-562.68 in three closely arrayed lines.

Tab Gilles : 9/29/2005 11:46:18 AM

$SPX, $NYSI& $BPSPX Link Link Link

Linda Piazza : 9/29/2005 11:43:45 AM

OEX bouncing now, a bit. The advdec line is approaching potentially strong resistance now, so I'm again watching to see if that holds, up to about -550 and with next resistance at -333 above that.

Linda Piazza : 9/29/2005 11:39:08 AM

Absolutely no upward movement in the OEX as the advdec line again climbs toward potentially strong resistance. Makes me wonder if my OEX feed is correct, actually.

Jonathan Levinson : 9/29/2005 11:39:05 AM

Volume breadth holds negative, -1.41:1 on the NYSE and -1.21:1 on the Nasdaq.

Jonathan Levinson : 9/29/2005 11:38:32 AM

Crude oil trades -.025 here at 66.325, off a low of 66.125. Natural gas is up .085 at 14.185.

Linda Piazza : 9/29/2005 11:37:08 AM

Advdec line still climbing, into potentially stronger resistance, and the OEX so far hasn't moved much, only bouncing right back to that rising trendline off the 9/22 low. Really iffy through here with lots of potential historical support and the advdec line climbing but with a formation that suggests the break should be to the downside.

Tab Gilles : 9/29/2005 11:35:06 AM

GOLD ($GOLD) Link Link

Linda Piazza : 9/29/2005 11:34:28 AM

The advdec line's rise into first support was not accompanied by a strong OEX bounce, which is what any bears who took a breakdown entry on the break below the rising trendline off the 9/22 low want to see. As I mentioned this morning, this would be a risky entry and not one I wanted to see as the only entry. Unfortunately, although the OEX and advdec lines hit the exact levels I wanted to see, the turnaround was too quick to give confirmation before the move had already begun, so I didn't get in a suggestion to enter the bounce-and-rollover play. As long as the advdec line continues to find resistance in the -1000 to -475 levels, and hopefully near the bottom of that zone, there's the possibility of further downside. You do not want to see a quick OEX bounce, however. If there is, watch that same 15-minute and 30-minute 100-ema's for potential resistance, and you want to see that hold.

Tab Gilles : 9/29/2005 11:29:00 AM

Oil Services Holders (OIH) Link Link

Linda Piazza : 9/29/2005 11:26:46 AM

Advdec line climbing rapidly without much movement in the OEX as yet. This is what bears want to see.

Jonathan Levinson : 9/29/2005 11:24:03 AM

QQQQ is bouncing from a higher low, having held the previous breakout point at 38.55 as its peers made new lows. Link

Linda Piazza : 9/29/2005 11:21:10 AM

OEX trying to steady on 559.50-560.01 Keltner support. It's above the 9/22 low, below the rising trendline off that low. The advdec line is trying to steady on -1470 support, rising toward resistance at -1145 and then stronger, at -900 to -720. Looks as if the OEX may bounce again, at least tepidly. Bears do not want that bounce to carry too high, though, as that presents the opportunity that the break of that trendline was a stop-running move and an upside break could be attempted.

Linda Piazza : 9/29/2005 11:10:21 AM

OEX tsting the trendline off the 9/22 low as I type. The advdec line says it will drop through it, as it's doing as I type. Watch for potential strong OEX support at 559.52, however, and for a bounce from that level. If you are in a bearish play and haven't already taken partial profit, it might be a good idea to do so now, and then lower the stop on the rest of the position. The 9/22 low was 558.99.

Jonathan Levinson : 9/29/2005 11:08:43 AM

Session lows for ES and YM, while QQQQ holds 10 cents above the lows.

Linda Piazza : 9/29/2005 11:05:06 AM

OEX right back at that rising trendline off the 9/22 low, testing that support. Sorry, bears, but I probably should have just advised that you hit that joined OEX/advdec resistance with an automatic bearish entry, but the advdec line action usually leads the OEX action, giving a heads up. It went the other way around today. Any bears who entered again on a test of the 15-minute 100-ema now need to consider taking partial credit again in case the OEX is going to bounce right up again through that narrowing triangle.

Jeff Bailey : 9/29/2005 11:02:43 AM

11:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 9/29/2005 10:56:20 AM

Red Hat (RHAT) $20.74 +25.56% Link ... atop this morning's most active and % gainer list after the software maker reported a net profit of $16.7 million, or $0.09 a share, up 49% from $11.8 million, or $0.06 cents, in the year-ago second quarter.

Revenue jumped 42% for the three months ended 8/31 to $65.7 million, up from $46.3 million last year.

Consensus was for $0.07 pershare on revenue of $65 million.

Linda Piazza : 9/29/2005 10:57:45 AM

Because I base my plays on different parameters than most traders (I don't really look that closely at the OEX's price), it's always difficult for me to suggest a stop for traders: On an advdec line move above the mid-channel Keltner resistance just isn't going to fly with most traders! However, if the OEX does move up again and give a decent entry at either the 15-minute 100-ema or the 30-minute, there's the top of the neutral triangle to help provide a decent stop for traders. That's currently at about 563.85 if I've placed my cursor correctly, with the 30-minute 100/130-ema's at 563.86 and 564.46 currently, so the benchmark could be those 100/130-ema's. Just not sure a new bounce-and-rollover entry will be offered.

For those who want to risk a breakdown entry, though, the OEX heads right back to the support of that neutral triangle, with that support currently at about 560.40. Breakdown entries are just iffier, and you'd want to either set a tight stop so that you'd be out if the OEX bounced right back inside that triangle, or widen the stop to above the top of the triangle so that you wouldn't be chopped around too much, depending on how much heat you can take with your stops.

Jonathan Levinson : 9/29/2005 10:55:09 AM

QQQQ trades both sides of the 72 SMA here, the rise slowing from its initial launch above 38.55. This is causing the short cycle upphase to slow as well, and a wavelet downphase is finally starting after trending. This still looks net bullish to me, but it's an important battle being fought and the outcome still up for grabs.

Tab Gilles : 9/29/2005 10:53:45 AM

Murphy Oil (MUR) Link Link

Linda Piazza : 9/29/2005 10:50:38 AM

Advdec line pulling back more strongly now, but the OEX is unfortunately already pulling back, too, and not giving the strongest entry. On any punches back toward the 562.60 level, bears can consider new entries as long as the advdec line is not above -500, but this time, the OEX led the advdec line rather than the other way around, and such an entry might not be offered.

Jeff Bailey : 9/29/2005 10:49:45 AM

Sell Program Premium ... DIA $104.42, SPX 1,214.60, QQQQ $38.65

Linda Piazza : 9/29/2005 10:46:27 AM

Advdec line still testing resistance, but still climbing. No sign of a turnaround yet. It's at -565, and a much higher climb and it could keep going toward -183 and bring the OEX up higher with it.

Jeff Bailey : 9/29/2005 10:41:55 AM

Current OPEN MM Profiles found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 9/29/2005 10:40:16 AM

Advdec line at -659, now deeper into that resistance band I'm watching. If it pops through that, there's a possible OEX run up to the 30-minute 100-ema, where I'll be watching again for signs of a rollover. On a pop through that -ema that isn't quickly slapped back, we'll be watching for signs that an upward move can be sustained, with the first sign a 30-minute close above the 30-minute 130-ema. For now, my best guess is that 562.60-563.90 level will hold as resistance.

Jonathan Levinson : 9/29/2005 10:36:53 AM

Today's QQQQ set a new low for the week, and so far the high hasn't violated yesterday's high. That's bearish action, but the short cycle bounce so far has been strong and is accompanied by high volume. This could be the makings of a daily cycle bottom, but the bulls would need a bullish engulfing close above yesterday's high to help confirm it. Link

Linda Piazza : 9/29/2005 10:35:51 AM

Still watching/hoping for an advdec line push up further into the -660 to -550 resistance zone and then further corroboration that it's finding resistance there. It's moving up again as I type, as I thought it might do. Don't want to enter a new bearish play while the advdec is still showing signs that it could climb higher and maybe carry the OEX up higher with it. I'd rather miss suggesting an entry as another one will always come along. However, I'm encouraged that the advdec line is now testing that resistance, moving higher into it as I typed.

Linda Piazza : 9/29/2005 10:32:04 AM

May have missed the OEX new bearish entry. It may be coming too quickly to give confirmation first, but there's still a possibility of an advdec line push a little higher.

Jonathan Levinson : 9/29/2005 10:31:55 AM

Natgas is trading +.17 at 14.27 here, off a high of 14.58.

Jeff Bailey : 9/29/2005 10:31:45 AM

Sell Program Premium ... DIA $104.50, SPX 1,215.10, QQQQ $38.65

Jonathan Levinson : 9/29/2005 10:31:36 AM




Linda Piazza : 9/29/2005 10:31:00 AM

OEX testing the 15-minute 100-ema. The advdec line is approaching, but not quite at the strongest resistance level yet, with the advdec line at -779 and that strongest resistance level up to about -575 or so. Watching for signs now that resistance will hold. Would have liked to have seen the OEX up to the 30-minute 100-ema so that it was closer to the top of that neutral triangle, but this could possibly be as high as it gets. No confirmation here just yet, but the advdec line is beginning to stall as I type.

Jonathan Levinson : 9/29/2005 10:29:53 AM

Volume breadth quickly rebounded to -1.08:1 on the NYSE and +1.41:1 on the Nasdaq.

Jonathan Levinson : 9/29/2005 10:26:43 AM

QQQQ surges here to test the 72 SMA at 38.67, breaking it as I type and stalling the 30 min channel decline: Link

Linda Piazza : 9/29/2005 10:25:55 AM

OEX still climbing toward the 15- and 30-minute 100/130-ema's. It's been the 30-minute 100-ema at 563.90 currently that's actually been turning back advances, but today it was the 15-minute at 562.62 that the OEX actually gapped beneath at the open, so both may be important to watch. The advdec line is climbing, too, but not yet at the strong resistance I'd like to see it approach before I even considered a new bearish entry. This thing could roll over at any moment, but there's no sign of it yet, and indeed some signs that both could climb where I want them to climb, at least. I'll then be watching for signs of a rollover or for a possible punch up higher and through the top of that neutral triangle, with that currently congruent with the 30-minute 100-ema. If the OEX does punch through the top, I'd certainly want it to clear the 564.50 level of the 30-minute 130-ema before I considered that upside break confirmed.

Jeff Bailey : 9/29/2005 10:21:13 AM

10:00 Internals found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 9/29/2005 10:17:57 AM

Volume breadth is up to -1.38:1 on the NYSE and -1.51:1 on the Nasdaq.

Jonathan Levinson : 9/29/2005 10:16:39 AM

Session highs for gold and silver, +4 at 476.90 and +.095 at 7.498 respectively.

Jonathan Levinson : 9/29/2005 10:15:46 AM

A bullish divergent wavelet upphase has kicked off here, and it could be enough to turn the short cycle to the upside was well. Bulls need to at least hold these gains off the low, and confirm with a break of the 72 SMA at 38.67: Link

Linda Piazza : 9/29/2005 10:16:38 AM

OEX first Keltner resistance at 562.05-562.28 on 15-minute closes, with further resistance at 562.87-563.29. Bears, I hope you took the opportunity to take at least partial profit back there and have now ratcheted down stops on the rest of the position. I hadn't recommended a bearish entry yesterday as strong resistance was being tested, but figure that there have to be some how tried it anyway--and it was an okay thing to do, I think--even if there wasn't enough corroboration. I promised yesterday to still give what information I had, and I have been. Now, I'm watching/hoping for a possible rise to 562.60-563.90, with a concurrent advdec line rise to -870 to -550 and then signs that resistance is holding there for both, for a possible new bearish entry. That's in an ideal world, and I'm not sure that opportunity will be given. Remember that there's still a chance that the OEX could break through its neutral triangle to the upside instead of to the downside.

Jonathan Levinson : 9/29/2005 10:08:19 AM




Linda Piazza : 9/29/2005 10:06:42 AM

My charts still appear unstable, but I've got them for the moment, and notice that the OEX is attempting a bounce along the rising trendline off the 9/22 low. That trendline is at about 560.35 currently, if I've placed my cursor correctly. That narrowing range that I mentioned in my first OEX-related post now appears to be a neutral triangle forming after a steep drop, so the presumption is that the break should be to the downside, a presumption I've held all along, but no one should trade on presumptions alone. The advdec line is bouncing, too, from potential support. This support, now near about -1770, is sometimes broken, but let's see if the advdec line can bounce up to next strong resistance while the OEX does, too, and give us a new bearish entry. Not sure it will happen, and I certainly would rather not be stuck with a breakdown entry, which I don't trust these days, but we may just not get what I want us to get.

Jeff Bailey : 9/29/2005 10:05:57 AM

10:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 9/29/2005 10:03:13 AM

Volume breadth -1.47:1 for the NYSE, -1.68:1 for the Nasdaq. QQQQ chart updated at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 9/29/2005 10:02:35 AM

Ten year note yields whipsawed up, now +2.4 bps at 4.286%. IRX is up .8 bps at 3.395%.

Jonathan Levinson : 9/29/2005 10:01:28 AM

Help Wanted Index 35 vs. 39 exp.

Jonathan Levinson : 9/29/2005 9:58:15 AM

The American Bankers Association reported Wednesday that the percentage of credit card accounts 30 or more days past due climbed to an all-time high of 4.81 percent in the April-to-June period. It could grow in the months ahead, experts said.


Jonathan Levinson : 9/29/2005 9:56:35 AM

The Fed announces a 6.5B overnight repo, resulting in a net drain of 4.75B for the day. The stop out rate on Treasury collateral dove to 3.52, almost 25 bps below the target rate and 11 bps below yesterday's level- suggesting much weaker demand for the money.

Linda Piazza : 9/29/2005 9:55:38 AM

Still chartless.

Linda Piazza : 9/29/2005 9:54:03 AM

The OEX is dropping heavily toward the rising trendline off the 9/22 low, with that trendline at about 560.35 if I've placed my cursor correctly. The Keltner target is 559.90, but the OEX still continues to hug that same Keltner support line that held it up yesterday, although the OEX did slip lower along it for a while. The advdec line has reached another level of potential support, a stronger one . . . and now my charts have gone, so I can't update further until I get that fixed.

Jeff Bailey : 9/29/2005 9:52:43 AM

Program Trading Levels for Thursday ... HL Camp & Company has their computers set for program buying at $+6.81 and set for program selling at $+4.24.

Jonathan Levinson : 9/29/2005 9:49:13 AM

Awaiting the Help Wanted Index at 10AM as well, est. 39.

Jonathan Levinson : 9/29/2005 9:51:01 AM

The Fed has 16.25B expiring today, and has announced a 5B 14-day repo leaving 11.25B with which to deal in the 10AM announcement. The stop out rate on that repo was 3.63%, 3.76%, and 3.79% for Treasury, Agency and Mortgage-Backed collateral.

Linda Piazza : 9/29/2005 9:45:55 AM

So far, so good for any in OEX bearish plays, but yesterday afternoon, the OEX rebounded from the Keltner support currently being tested. Nervous bears might consider taking partial profit here, although I usually recommend that step for a test of the Keltner line currently at 559.95. The advdec line is also at the support level from which it rebounded yesterday, so I'm nervous about the possibility for a bounce through here.

Jonathan Levinson : 9/29/2005 9:40:28 AM

Volume breadth now negative, -1.33:1 on the NYSE and -1.46:1 on the Nasdaq.

Linda Piazza : 9/29/2005 9:40:43 AM

Advdec line dropping now, but dropping back into potential support. I'm just not getting firm corroboration of either direction here, but so far, the OEX heads lower. Although I could not find enough corroboration yesterday as the OEX tested strong resistance to suggest a bearish play, there must have been some who entered such a play, and they're happy to see the OEX dropping to first support at 561.43 on 15-minute closes. The OEX is also entering a zone of potential historical support, so bears can't exactly breathe easily here. As I prepared this post, the advdec line started dropping more heavily, too, which also helps, but guard profits, as there's still the potential for a rebound. Consider taking partial profits if the OEX should drop to its lower Keltner target, at 559.98 currently. I think I'd probably expect a bounce attempt somewhere through here first, with bears wanting 15-minute closes beneath 562.51 if such a bounce should occur.

Jonathan Levinson : 9/29/2005 9:38:06 AM

QQQQ is violating lower 30 min channel support here. 60 min channel support is at 38.50. Because neither cycle is anywhere near oversold, however, there's potential room to the downside here. Link

Jonathan Levinson : 9/29/2005 9:34:28 AM

Volume breadth is -1.15:1 on the NYSE and +1.01:1 on the Nasdaq at the open.

Linda Piazza : 9/29/2005 9:34:23 AM

Keltner picture for the OEX. As long as it maintains 15-minute closes beneath 562.42 and perhaps below 562.94, it maintains a downside target of at least 561.70 and perhaps 560.09. This is iffy this morning, however, as the advdec line is climbing.

Linda Piazza : 9/29/2005 9:33:10 AM

The OEX drops below mid-channel support on the 15-minute Keltner chart, but the advdec line so far gives a mixed picture as it jumped above its mid-channel level.

Jonathan Levinson : 9/29/2005 9:24:17 AM

QQQQ's 30 and 60 min cycles are currently opposed, within a short cycle downphase that has grown oversold. This is a setup for a choppy sideways upphase. The daily cycle is trying to bottom, showing a tentative bullish kiss, and a break of yesterday's high could well be the real thing, particularly if it's accompanied by high volume.

Linda Piazza : 9/29/2005 8:53:14 AM

The OEX ended the day yesterday just beneath the 30-minute 100/130-ema's at 564 and 564.60, with the 30-minute 100-ema having stopped advances three time this week. Yesterday, an early punch above the 200-ema, currently at 563.55, was repelled, as all advances above it have been since 9/21. The OEX is trading in that same kind of 4-6 point range that it often sets up after moving big, and this one has candle bodies forming beneath the 200-ema. The formation could be consolidation before a rise or a "b" distribution pattern with an expected downside break, but we just have to see where it breaks.

Keltner channels that describe the range are at 564.74 on the topside and 560.11 on the bottom, with the OEX's approach to the topside being met with selling yesterday morning and the approach to the bottom later in the day being met with buying. Neither channel line was actually touched, but the OEX might have been narrowing its range ahead of today's GDP.

Until otherwise shown, selling the resistance and buying the support appear to be the best bets, although I need more confirmation before entering bullish than bearish plays because of the nature of the formation on the daily chart and seasonal tendencies. The OEX ended the day almost in the middle of its Keltner channel range, sitting on potential support, so no new entry immediately presents itself. As the 30-minute 100-ema was being tested yesterday, I kept hoping that other factors would come together to corroborate a new bearish entry, but they just weren't there. The pullback was from expected strong resistance, but took the form of a possible bull flag on the 15-minute chart, and the middle of the channel isn't the safest place for any entry, bullish or bearish. If that Keltner support is violated first thing this morning with a lower open, it may turn out that a bearish entry would have been a good trade after all, but this morning's important economic releases dictated that all the ducks be in a row for any entry. I'll be watching this morning, to see if anything else presents itself.

Jonathan Levinson : 9/29/2005 8:32:47 AM

Little reaction from the markets so far, bonds stronger with the TNX down 1.6 bps here at 4.246%, while QQQQ is down .03 at 38.65.

Jonathan Levinson : 9/29/2005 8:30:48 AM





Jonathan Levinson : 9/29/2005 8:30:22 AM





Jonathan Levinson : 9/29/2005 8:25:00 AM

No weakness for natural gas futures. The latest photo I've seen shows Henry Hub still submerged. Currently +.125 at 14.225. Crude oil is up .325 at 66.675.

Jonathan Levinson : 9/29/2005 8:22:40 AM

Equities have ticked red, ten year notes holding light gains with TNX -.8 bps at 4.254%. The IRX is down 2 bps at 3.367%.

Jonathan Levinson : 9/29/2005 7:54:01 AM




Jonathan Levinson : 9/29/2005 7:45:08 AM

Equities are up, ES trading 1223.25, NQ 1581.5, YM 10513 and QQQQ +.03 at 38.71. Gold is up 1.60 to 474.50, silver is up .067 to 7.47, ten year notes are up 3/64 to 110 31/64, crude oil is up .325 to 66.675 and natural gas is up .13 to 14.23.

We await the 8:30 release of the Q2 GDP, est. 3.3%, initial claims, est. 420K and at 10AM, the Help Wanted Index, est. 39.

Linda Piazza : 9/29/2005 7:17:58 AM

Good morning. The Nikkei reached another new recent closing high, with most other Asian markets gaining, too. European markets turn lower, however. As of 7:04 EST, gold was higher by $1.40 to $474.50, and crude, higher by $0.23 to $66.58. More detail about Asian and European markets follows in succeeding paragraphs.

Despite having just confirmed a H&S at Wednesday's close, the Nikkei gapped higher and rose into the early morning session on Thursday, dipped to the flat-line level by mid-morning, and then climbed the rest of the day. It ended the day on its high of the day, up 181.33 points or 1.35%, at 13,617.24. August retail sales rose 1.5% on a seasonally adjusted basis from July's number and 1.5% from the year-ago level, with that rise far more than the anticipated 0.6%. Many retailers rose in early trading as did many banks and raw-material producers. A boost in Moody's Investors Service rating of Honda Motor Co. Ltd. sent that company's stock higher, but other carmakers were gaining, too. Some mentioned optimism about Friday's upcoming industrial output and Monday's quarterly tankan business survey as prompting gains, too.

August orders for Japan's chip-makers fell 10% according to a trade association, but that decrease was less than July's. One source reports that the Ministry of Finance figures showed that foreign investors were net sellers of both Japanese equities and Japanese bonds last week. The Bank of Japan's Governor Fukui was scheduled to speak, with his talk perhaps occurring after the close, with much attention likely directed at his comments regarding the ending of quantitative easing. His comments did not sound as if he thought the ending of the quantitative easing policy could come as soon as some other central bank members have been speculating. He mentioned fiscal years 2006 and 2007 as possible times when CPI might rise and stabilize enough to end that policy. He did have upbeat things to say about Japan's emergence from the soft patch, rising capital investment and the sustainability of the gradual recovery. He mentioned overseas economies and oil as dangers to be watched. He further said that it's possible that the current account target could be lowered before quantitative easing was ended.

Most other Asian markets gained, too. The Taiwan Weighted gained 1.33%. South Korea's August industrial production showed an unexpected decline of 1.6% month over month, attributable at least in part to strikes at Hyundai Motor Co. and Kia Motors Corp. Many analysts had expected a small rise. However, the Kospi again posted a gain, up 0.22%. Singapore's Straits Times fell 0.11%, but Hong Kong's Hang Seng rose 1.38%. China's Shanghai Composite charged higher by 2.10%. The government initiated its stock rescue fund, meant to compensate investors and help brokerages that encounter problems, according to Marketwatch.com. Also, GE reportedly agreed to buy a 7% position in China's Shenzhen Development Bank, according to Bloomberg.com. A battle is heating up between the U.S. Treasury and the IMF's Chief Rato, with Rato refusing to label China a currency manipulator, as a U.S. Treasury official has reportedly called for the IMF to do.

European markets turn lower, however. In the U.K., nationwide housing prices fell 0.2% in September, with a year-over-year drop of 1.8%. Other figures lately had led to expectations for a gain, and this disappointing figure may pressure the Bank of England to lower rates again, some speculate. Contrasting information came from the August consumer credit figures, though, with August mortgage approvals rising sharply.

In Germany, September's unemployed rose a seasonally adjusted 39,000, with this increasing the unemployment rate to 11.7% from the previous 11.6%. While above expectations, the number of unemployed is nevertheless below whisper numbers, but the confusion comes in a new way of computing the number. Unadjusted, the number of unemployed rose 79,000 rather than the 100,000 expected, with this release questioning whether the pace of the economic recovery has been strong enough to support the labor market. Adjusted vacancies rose 25,000, however. Also in Germany, a trade association has reported that plant and machinery orders rose 12% year over year in August. Foreign orders increased 18% year over year, driving most of the gains.

In France, PPI rose 0.3% month over month, down from July's 0.6% gain month over month. Year over year, the PPI fell to 2.8%. A rise in energy prices increased the PPI. No other upward pressures were found other than energy-related ones.

Mining and steel stocks have tended to perform well today in Europe, as they did in Asia. UBS upgraded Anglo-Dutch Corus to a buy rating and raised its price target on that company and on France's Arcelor. The firm already had buy ratings on Arcelor and ThyssenKrupp. Carmakers were mixed. Air France-KLM announced that it was raising its fuel surcharge on long-haul flights. Dutch media company VNU NV's efforts to secure the support of institutional shareholders for its decision to acquire IMS Health was the topic of a WSJ article. The article speculated that the company was ready to take strong measures to convince those institutional investors, with possible tactics including selling off a big division and other such radical measures. In other news, the U.K.'s pharmacy chain Boots Group fell after updating investors on its second quarter comparable sales and noting difficult market conditions that aren't likely to get better for the rest of the year. Sugar refiner Tate & Lyle PLC rose after it updated, keeping its fiscal 2006 forecast unchanged, but saying that energy prices could add to costs for fiscal 2007 if those energy prices persisted at current levels. Schering and Merck both rose, Schering rising after receiving FDA approval of its Angeliq hormone-replacement therapy and Merck after revealing details of its upfront payment by Japan's Takeda Pharmaceutical as they co-develop an antibody for cancer.

As of 7:04 EST, the FTSE 100 was lower by 11.90 points or 0.22%, to 5,482.90. The CAC 40 was lower by 13.34 points or 0.29%, to 4,586.29. The DAX was lower by 17.19 points or 0.34%, to 5,031.55.

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