Option Investor
Archive
HAVING TROUBLE PRINTING?
Printer friendly version
Jeff Bailey : 10/5/2005 12:05:44 AM

Program Trading Levels for Wednesday ... HL Camp & Company has their computers set for program buying at $+6.62 and set for program selling at $+3.86.

Fair Value for the S&P 500 is $+5.14.

Tab Gilles : 10/4/2005 10:55:25 PM

$SPX Is the $SPX ready to breakout or selloff? Link

OI Technical Staff : 10/4/2005 9:59:59 PM

The Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

Disclaimer: Stocks discussed in the Market Monitor are for educational purposes only and any analysis is not meant to imply a recommendation for or against that stock. The analysts in this forum as on any other website are prohibited by the SEC from giving any specific advice to ANY individual trader. All information posted is for ALL readers and is not meant to be directed to any individual. Our analysts cannot answer any email questions regarding any specific stock. Please do not ask and please do not take offense if requests are denied.

Results posted in the Market Monitor are hypothetical and OIN does not claim that any reader achieved these exact results. Due to the lag time between research, writing, posting, uploading, reading and execution there will be differences between the actual signal given and the fill achieved by the reader. Fills may be better or worse but in most cases they will be different. The writers will make every effort to give advance notice of intended signals and indicate potential price targets. Your individual results may vary depending on your activity level and aggressiveness. This forum is intended as an education service only. Trading involves risk and should not be attempted by anyone not ready to accept this risk. By acting on any signal in this forum you agree and personally accept this risk.

Tab Gilles : 10/4/2005 6:52:38 PM

$NDX/$NASI Sorry, I've been unable to post, having ISP/ Comcast connection problems since yesterday AM., Using AOL dialup now...geezzz is it so slow!

OK, on the $NDX that downtrend line I pointed out yesterday Link at the 1610 level, could see a drop back towards 1580. Link

$NASI on daily chart still bullish. Link Link

Murphy Oil (MUR) Update, this stock is still a BUY even lower then my entry point back on 9/16 1:34 PM post. Link

Jeff Bailey : 10/4/2005 5:09:53 PM

Weekly/Monthly Pivot Matrix (updated) found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 10/4/2005 4:46:42 PM

Closing U.S. Market Watch at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 10/4/2005 4:43:20 PM

Closing Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 10/4/2005 4:24:24 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 10/4/2005 4:04:28 PM

Sell Program Premium ... DIA $104.30, SPY $121.30

Linda Piazza : 10/4/2005 3:56:18 PM

The OEX is breaking below that rising trendline off the 9/22 high, headed toward the current 559.00 Keltner target. Another rising trendline, off the 7/07 low, crosses at about 558.80, so that's another potentially strong area of support. I still feel comfortable having closed out my bearish OEX position and waiting to see what develops tomorrow morning, but if you're still in a partial position, then you're liking what you see. Keep lowering those stops, though, and do take partial profit by the close.

Jeff Bailey : 10/4/2005 3:49:07 PM

Imperial Oil (AMEX:IMO) $112.30 -2.77% Link ... DJ - Cuts Edmonton par crude by C$9 / cubic meter.

Linda Piazza : 10/4/2005 3:47:23 PM

The OEX isn't moving much after touching that rising trendline off the 9/22 low. It maintains its 559.15 downside target on its 15-minute chart, but is at other forms of potentially strong support, so you've got a tough decision if you're in a bearish OEX position. It's on the verge of a breakdown out of the latest consolidation pattern, but it is tentatively holding to support that has prompted strong bounces, too. I've already said in a previous post that I've closed out my bearish position and I'll take a look tomorrow morning at what happens, but some of the rest of you might prefer to hold onto a partial position. Do this only if you've been able to lock in some of your profit, however.

Jeff Bailey : 10/4/2005 3:42:13 PM

Fed's Poole ... DJ - Markets have bettern understanding of Fed policy.

Fed clarity is behind economic stability.

Predictable policy leads to predictable inflation.

Linda Piazza : 10/4/2005 3:36:11 PM

I'd like to see the TRAN fall below the 50-sma at 3692.88 to confirm its potential reversal signal, but, at 3709.36, it's already reversed all of Friday's and Monday's gains.

Well, actually, if I had my "druthers," as my grandmother used to say, I would like to see the stock market performing well, all healthy and wealthy in our country, but you know what I mean.

Jeff Bailey : 10/4/2005 3:33:30 PM

No buy, or sell program premiums so far today.

Linda Piazza : 10/4/2005 3:26:08 PM

Advdec line still continuing lower. OEX sitting right on the rising trendline off the 9/22 low. We're about to get into MOC orders in about 15 minutes and those who stuck it out in the bearish position off the post-ISM entry yesterday now need to make up their minds as to whether they want to hold on overnight or even into the MOC orders. I'm opting out, taking profit, but you make your own decision. This could continue lower the rest of the day, but I'm content here.

Jeff Bailey : 10/4/2005 3:26:01 PM

Semiconductor HOLDRs (SMH) $36.46 -1.72% ... testing WEEKLY Pivot here.

Linda Piazza : 10/4/2005 3:22:15 PM

Advdec line still continuing lower.

Jeff Bailey : 10/4/2005 3:19:52 PM

03:00 Internals found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 10/4/2005 3:19:40 PM

The OEX is now sitting directly on the actual ascending trendline off the 9/22 low. This should be a possible bounce point for the OEX. It currently maintains a 559.17 downside Keltner target, as long as it maintains 15-minute closes beneath 562.46-562.85.

Linda Piazza : 10/4/2005 3:16:48 PM

The RLX is beginning to violate the 30-minute support that's been holding it up for days. That support should now be resistance if the RLX should try to rise, but OEX bears need to see a quick and deeper drop to feel safe. The RLX now has a 30-minute downside target of 433.15 as long as it maintains 30-minute closes beneath 437.97, but preferably below 437.18. It's at 435.87 as I type.

Linda Piazza : 10/4/2005 3:15:14 PM

Advdec line continuing lower.

Linda Piazza : 10/4/2005 3:14:44 PM

The SPX is sitting right on its 72-ema at 1218.53, with the SPX at 1218.88. This averages is sometimes important to the SPX, specifically from 8/25-8-30, for example, when it was opening or closing right on that average.

Linda Piazza : 10/4/2005 3:10:36 PM

Advdec line dropping all the way to the next support level, nudging it lower. I'm not as concerned about this potential support at this time of the day as I would be if it had been hit early in the day, as the advdec line often follows this line lower the rest of the day when it's hit it later in the day. I am concerned about the RLX, however, on behalf of those in bearish OEX plays. It is just not dropping to the degree that bears need to see, especially as the OEX sinks into potentially strong support of its own. Just keep lowering your stops on your OEX bearish position.

Linda Piazza : 10/4/2005 3:04:52 PM

The TRAN has confirmed a double-top formation on its 30-minute chart.

Linda Piazza : 10/4/2005 3:04:11 PM

The RLX may be weakening, but not enough to satisfy me yet.

Linda Piazza : 10/4/2005 3:03:39 PM

The OEX and advdec line have both reached potentially strong support and it may be time for another bounce attempt. Bears want it to be tepid. Specifically, the OEX maintains a downside target of 559.28 on the 15-minute chart, but only as long as it maintains 15-minute closes beneath a line currently at 563.42, but preferably below the one currently at 562.70.

Jeff Bailey : 10/4/2005 3:02:45 PM

03:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 10/4/2005 3:00:51 PM

Advdec approaching next potentially strong support at -1250, with the advdec line at -1035 as I type and dropping fast.

Note, as I type this, the OEX is at the exact 561.23 level that's the 38.2% retracement of the entire bear-market decline, a number that still has some resonance. Time to lower stops again, if you haven't already.

Linda Piazza : 10/4/2005 2:59:31 PM

RLX is not yet dropping far enough and hard enough to please OEX bears. Needs some more downside action to confirm the drop in the OEX. Meanwhile, though, OEX bears are enjoying the current drop in the OEX, whether or not the RLX cooperates. You'll just feel less antsy about it if the RLX participates, too. Or at least I will.

Linda Piazza : 10/4/2005 2:56:49 PM

The SOX may also have tentatively confirmed a H&S on its 15-minute chart, too, with the SOX's version one with an ascending neckline. The head would have topped out at yesterday's high and the neckline is approximately at 479.50 currently, with the SOX just barely below that, at 478.62. The SOX isn't dropping far after confirming it, which means that I either have the neckline drawn incorrectly or else bears haven't quite vanquished the bulls as this level is being tested. Bears want to see a quick and sustained drop to avoid the possibility that the bulls could send it higher again, invalidating that formation.

Linda Piazza : 10/4/2005 2:51:45 PM

Advdec line not showing any strength yet, but still testing support. It's about to retest its LOD. Next potential support in the -1200 level, if it continues falling.

Jeff Bailey : 10/4/2005 2:50:49 PM

Sun Microsystems (SUWN)$4.27 +1.90% and Google (GOOG) $314.22 -1.41% announced an agreement to promote and distribute their software technologies. The agreement aims to make it easier for users to freely obtain Sun's Java Runtime Environment, the Google Toolbar, and the OpenOffice.org office productivity suite. Under the agreement, SUNW will include the Google Toolbar as an option in its consumer downloads of the Java Runtime Environment on java.com. In addition, the co's have agreed to explore opportunities to promote and enhance SUNW technologies, like the Java Runtime Environment and the OpenOffice.org productivity suite.

Linda Piazza : 10/4/2005 2:50:00 PM

Lots of H&S-ish formations being confirmed on today's 15-minute charts. None were classic, with the right-shoulder formations extending way too long in time, but the Dow has one and the RLX has one and the OEX has one, among others. The RLX, of course, bounces right back up to retest the broken support. You can't stomp that thing down.

Linda Piazza : 10/4/2005 2:48:37 PM

Dow 10,500 being tested, with the Dow at 10,499.38, just off its 10,487.53 LOD.

Linda Piazza : 10/4/2005 2:41:44 PM

The RLX still sits on that mid-channel Keltner support I mentioned earlier. It dropped down into that support, but hasn't broken through it, with that support down to 437.21 on 30-minute closes, and with the RLX at 437.67 as I type. The RLX needs to break soundly through that resistance.

Linda Piazza : 10/4/2005 2:38:11 PM

The OEX has set a tentative downside target of 559.54, dependent on the OEX staying beneath a Keltner line currently at 563.17 on 15-minute closes. The OEX has much support in the 560-561 levels, however, and even now approaches a 19.1% retracement of the decline off the 9/09 high. I hope some of you are still in at least partial bearish positions from the post-ISM period yesterday, but you need to be aware that the bottom of the rising channel off the 9/22 is somewhere between 560.20-561.41, dependent on how that channel is drawn. Keep lowering your stops.

Linda Piazza : 10/4/2005 2:33:05 PM

Advdec at next support. Bears want to see it stay beneath about -25 but certainly beneath +300-500 on any bounces. They'd like it to keel over beneath -425. It's at -368 as I type.

Linda Piazza : 10/4/2005 2:30:13 PM

TRAN back at its opening level, erasing all today's gains. Now bears want to see continued downdrafts in the TRAN.

Linda Piazza : 10/4/2005 2:29:40 PM

Finally. New LOD of the OEX. First downside target just ahead at 563.38. If you didn't take partial profit earlier and weren't stopped on the spike post-10:00, now is your opportunity. If the RLX continues tumbling and can break through its support, down to 437.21 on 15-minute closes, then you might hold onto at least a partial position. Watch carefully here.

Linda Piazza : 10/4/2005 2:23:46 PM

The RLX is attempting a bounce from that strong support that I mentioned earlier, in my 1:59:10 post. As I said then, it either had to be pushed strongly through it if it was going to break through it, or it's got some more chopping around before it separates lines has any chance of dropping through it. Of course, there's another alternative--it could just keep rising and not break through it at all.

Jeff Bailey : 10/4/2005 2:22:14 PM

U.S. Interior Secretary Galer Norton ... DJ - Just Now Seeing Oil,Gas Recovery In Gulf

56 Oil,Gas Platforms Damaged By Storms

109 Platforms Destroyed By Rita and Katrina

Linda Piazza : 10/4/2005 2:20:44 PM

The TRAN is trying to rise again, but that overhead resistance still looks strong, with first resistance currently being tested at 3748.55 on 15-minute closes, but with firmer resistance at 3753.96-3756.33 on 15-minute closes. The TRAN is at 3747.50.

Jeff Bailey : 10/4/2005 2:17:46 PM

02:00 Internals found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 10/4/2005 2:05:31 PM

The OEX bounced again exactly from the midline of its rising regression channel off the 9/22 low, but its bounce is tepid so far. Watching the advdec line to see if it breaks down through important support being approached.

Jeff Bailey : 10/4/2005 2:04:35 PM

02:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 10/4/2005 2:02:46 PM

The OEX's current downside target is 563.55 as long as it maintains 15-minute closes beneath 565.16. It set up a similar downside target this morning without quite reaching it. It's approaching the midline of its rising regression channel, but a break to a new LOD might help get things going to the downside.

Linda Piazza : 10/4/2005 2:01:20 PM

Advdec line dropping into potentially strong support or at least important support from about -290 up to about +70. The advdec line is now at +221 as I type, QCharts value. Watch to see if it breaks through support.

Linda Piazza : 10/4/2005 1:59:10 PM

The RLX is now dropping into gathered Keltner support from 437.20-437.70, with the RLX currently at 437.88. The RLX has been testing this support for days now. It still looks as if it's going to take a strong surge down to break through it, so unless that surge is produced somehow, it still looks as if the RLX could chop around a bit longer.

Jeff Bailey : 10/4/2005 1:59:35 PM

Fed's Fisher ... DJ - Inflation not showing signs of moving lower.

Inflation near upper end of comfort zone.

Post-hurricane economic boost to last for years.

Fed to rely "more than ever" on anecdotal clues.

U.S. economy moving to slower growth track.

Linda Piazza : 10/4/2005 1:54:06 PM

I barely got that 1:50 post out before the OEX and some other indices started moving lower. Actually, I was about five minutes late posting it because I've found through the years that there's often a move sometime around 1:45.

The OEX LOD has been 564, with the OEX currently at 564.61. That first LOD bounced from the midline of the ascending regression channel that's been forming since 9/22. The OEX burst above that channel twice, once being yesterday morning, so I wasn't sure whether it was still valid, but this morning's action suggested it might be.

Linda Piazza : 10/4/2005 1:50:26 PM

We're entering a typical period for a stop-running move, with those moves sometimes seeing follow-through and sometimes being reversed. They're tests to see whose in charge.

At least, we can hope we'll get such a move, right?

Linda Piazza : 10/4/2005 1:43:39 PM

The TRAN's close yesterday was at 3736.59 and today's open at 3736.71. Market bears want the TRAN below both and steeply below both. It's at 3747.55 as I type, off its HOD at 3758.09.

Linda Piazza : 10/4/2005 1:39:46 PM

TRAN easing back a little from that massing Keltner resistance that I mentioned. Its pullback isn't significant yet. Bears want to see it go negative for the day, dropping heavily through recent gains.

Linda Piazza : 10/4/2005 1:26:56 PM

RUT breaking to a new high.

Linda Piazza : 10/4/2005 1:24:23 PM

It looks to me as if Keltner resistance is massing above the TRAN's current 3752.84 level. The TRAN is still trying to rise against that resistance, even as I type, but without a strong surge up, it looks to me as if that resistance, up to 3757.11 on 15-minute closes, will hold.

Jeff Bailey : 10/4/2005 1:13:04 PM

01:00 Internals found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 10/4/2005 1:05:24 PM

I switched to the OEX's three-minute nested Keltner chart to see if it offered any clarification. Not hardly! Take a look. Link Of course, the moment I uploaded this, the OEX began rising off that mid-channel level, toward next resistance.

Jeff Bailey : 10/4/2005 1:02:28 PM

01:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 10/4/2005 12:54:56 PM

With the exception of a punch higher yesterday near the open and a punch lower today near the open, the OEX has been printing small-bodied candles on top of the 30-minute 100/130-ema's for two and a half days now.

Linda Piazza : 10/4/2005 12:37:49 PM

The TRAN is inching above yesterday's 3756.74 high . . . oops, back just below it as I type. The TRAN is doing its best to avoid confirming an evening-star reversal pattern after yesterday's doji at the top of a steep rise. Classically, the TRAN would have opened today at or below yesterday's close, which it did, and then moved down from there if it was confirming that pattern, but it's pushing higher instead. A continued move higher means the TRAN is rejecting that reversal potential, but it's the close we really have to watch since the TRAN has a way of overrunning targets and then reversing quickly. The 15-minute chart shows bearish price/RSI divergence, which sometimes continues for quite a while on the TRAN before it even so much as pulls back. The TRAN should be watched at this level and as it approaches the 3760-ish resistance level. Market bears want to see a sharp pullback, beginning soon--really soon--and the bulls want to see a continued move higher.

Jeff Bailey : 10/4/2005 12:34:44 PM

10 Most Active ... SUNW $4.48 +6.68%, MSFT $25.00 -1.9%, LU $3.48 +5.13%, SIRI $6.89 +5.35%, JDSU $2.25 +4.65%, QQQQ $39.84 +0.70%, EWJ $12.21 +0.65%, NT $3.44 +4.24%, INTC $24.86 +1.05%, SPY $122.85 +0.20%

Linda Piazza : 10/4/2005 12:30:44 PM

Despite spending most of the day trying today, the RLX has not been able to get above its 200-sma, as it did yesterday morning on the first burst higher. It's dangerous to draw too many conclusions from this just yet, as the RLX could be consolidating underneath in a measured accumulation pattern prior to trying again, but keep a watch (and an open mind) on this.

Jeff Bailey : 10/4/2005 12:14:35 PM

12:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 10/4/2005 12:13:14 PM

WellPoint Health (WLP) $77.61 +2.34% ... notable 52-weeker at the big board.

Jeff Bailey : 10/4/2005 12:02:41 PM

12:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 10/4/2005 12:01:10 PM

Advdec line about to hit next likely resistance in the 1000-ish zone. It's at 939 as I type.

Linda Piazza : 10/4/2005 12:00:41 PM

There is just nothing to say about the OEX right now that might not be misleading. It's in a choppy pattern with little Keltner or other evidence as to which direction it will head next.

I can say this, when taking a step back and looking at it from a longer-term view. The OEX broke down out of a rising regression channel that had been in place since its climb off the April low. This occurred in August. It rose off its August low to retest that former channel, briefly breaking back inside it, but then breaking down again. That's not a bullish event. It however, achieved a higher low and began climbing from that, but it so far (on a 240-minute basis) has not been able to close a period back above the 50% retracement of that decline off the 9/09 high. It also has not been able to close above a 50% retracement of the decline off the late July high into the August low, with both being closely aligned above 567. The formation since late August looks a bit like a large neutral triangle with an upper boundary near 570 and a lower one near 560. Right now, the OEX is almost exactly in the middle of that narrowing triangle with few clues as next direction. All in all, I'd have to consider the evidence as being weighted slightly toward the bearish side, but the neutral triangle and continual testing of the 567-ish zone must be given some weight, too. Because the bearish case seems to have a slightly heavier weighting, I think I'd be more likely to enter bearish plays on rollovers under the 567-ish zone than to buy support at the currently-being tested 565-ish zone, but I'd need corroborating evidence either direction.

If you've still retained a portion of your bearish play from the post-ISM period yesterday, then hopefully you've already taken partial profits as suggested near this morning's low, just prior to today's economic releases, and you've set stops that you intend to honor on the rest. Some of those were probably hit on the post-factory orders spike. I just don't see any new entries presenting themselves right now. The advdec line is headed again toward potential resistance, and I'll look then, but so far, nothing shows up.

Jeff Bailey : 10/4/2005 11:46:11 AM

Semiconductor HOLDRs (SMH) $37.18 +0.21% ... SNDK $51.23 +6.3%, VTSS $1.77 +5.35%, ATML $2.26 +3.66% .... LSI $9.62 -2.92%, TXN $32.98 -2.62%, MU $13.44 -1.46%, AMD $25.38 -1.05%

Linda Piazza : 10/4/2005 11:44:40 AM

Advdec line climbing again, perhaps headed toward 950-1000. RLX challenging the 200-eja again. OEX trading just above the 30-minute 100/130-ema's, trying to rise again. Just a bunch of choppiness so far.

Jeff Bailey : 10/4/2005 11:40:23 AM

Bearish Put establish stop alert for the Apple Computer AAPL Nov. $55 Put (QAA-WK).

With the stock trading $55.18 +1.35%, will place a stop loss on this option should the stock trade $55.60.

Jeff Bailey : 10/4/2005 11:34:17 AM

Google Inc. (GOOG) $317.68 -0.31% Link ... Goldman Sachs maintaining its "outperform" rating on the stock this morning, saying it believes there is potential for the company to host a Microsoft (MSFT) $24.94 -2.19% Link Office-like product such as OpenOffice.org or StarOffice from Sun Microsystems (SUNW) $4.49 +7.15% Link

In a note to clients, Goldman's research team said, "Star Office has not gained much traction, but with Google, maybe it could do better hosted on the Internet, mostly in the consumer market."

Goldman also reiterated its "outperform" rating on MSFT and noted that GOOG and SUNW will host a joint press conference later today. (see yesterday's MM at 01:31:06 PM EDT)

Linda Piazza : 10/4/2005 11:30:16 AM

The OEX's Keltner outlook provides no insight, either, at least not on the 15-minute chart. The OEX is squarely at mid-channel S/R, at 564.79 on 15-minute closes, right in the middle of all three channels, lining up in flat stretches around that flattening mid-channel S/R level. In other words, those channels are lining up in an equilibrium setup that precedes a breakout one direction or another, but that can persist for some time and that gives no clues as to which direction the breakout will be. We haven't seen this done in quite this way for a while. It's a pattern seen often in summertime trading, for example.

Linda Piazza : 10/4/2005 11:26:14 AM

What OEX bears would really like is to see the RLX break below today's and yesterday's lows, with yesterday's at 437.47 and with the RLX currently at 439.11.

Linda Piazza : 10/4/2005 11:23:41 AM

Advdec line and OEX dropping, but the OEX has been trading across the 30-minute 100/130-ema's. It's verging on a downside breakout of the 240-minute consolidation pattern, but bears just haven't been able to produce follow-through.

Jeff Bailey : 10/4/2005 11:22:28 AM

Lexmark Intl. (LXK) $45.06 -26.05% Link ... Sharply lower after the maker of printers warned that Q3 results will be lower than expected due to revenue shortfalls.

The company said it now expects EPS between $0.40 and $0.50 per share, which excludes the impact of previously announced layoffs (275 jobs through first half of 2006), or $0.05 per share.

Lexmark said lower laser and inkjet supplies revenue, caused by a reduction in channel inventories and lower end-user demand, was the main reason for the overall revenue shortfall. Laser and inkjet printer revenue was less than expected because of more aggressive product pricing and promotion and slower demand.

The company also expects these factors to affect Q4 results. Lexmark expects revenue and earnings per share to be significantly below the current average of analysts' expectations.

A consensus of analysts had estimated earnings of $1.17 per share for Q4.

Linda Piazza : 10/4/2005 11:16:16 AM

Still nothing much changing. The OEX is still oscillating around the 30-minute 100/130-ema's, the advdec line between support and resistance.

Jeff Bailey : 10/4/2005 11:12:18 AM

11:00 Internals found at this Link

Yesterday's Internals found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 10/4/2005 11:09:34 AM

Nothing much is changing.

Jeff Bailey : 10/4/2005 11:02:10 AM

11:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 10/4/2005 11:01:58 AM

The RLX won't give up on its test of the 200-sma at 440.46, with the RLX at 439.82 as I type, and with the 200-sma just above the other average, at 441.46.

Linda Piazza : 10/4/2005 10:44:42 AM

Mixed-up signals everywhere I look. On the OEX itself, the day's range has been roughly from the 30-sma (a little above it) on the topside to the 200-ema and 10-sma (a little above them, too) on the bottomside. The advdec line itself goes sideways. The RLX keeps bouncing, but is so far held back by its 200-sma and -ema's . . . just barely.

Linda Piazza : 10/4/2005 10:35:00 AM

Advdec line dropping again, and the OEX drops back toward the 30-minute 100/130-ema's. The RLX turns back from its test of its 200-ema and -sma's, but not far back yet. President Bush is speaking, so some of this could be event-driven, so be careful. I'm seeing a strange lack of strong setups for plays lately.

Linda Piazza : 10/4/2005 10:28:16 AM

Advdec still climbing. Not at strongest resistance, leaving open the possibility that it could continue to climb. RLX still testing the 200-ema with the 200-sma just above.

Linda Piazza : 10/4/2005 10:24:58 AM

The advdec line is in no kind of place to suggest a new entry any direction. It's in the middle of support and resistance, in the middle of a likely short-term range.

Linda Piazza : 10/4/2005 10:22:32 AM

RLX just hit a new HOD, but has already pulled back a little. That HOD was a touch of the 200-ema at 440.16, with the 200-sma at 441.46. The RLX may be key to watch here. OEX bears do not want to see the RLX break above yesterday's 441.93 HOD, as that could prompt a new wave of buying on the RLX and perhaps the OEX, too. RLX currently at 440.38.

Linda Piazza : 10/4/2005 10:19:40 AM

Those OEX bears who took partial profit pre-10:00 or especially those who took full profit are now congratulating themselves. Those who didn't need to honor their revised profit-protecting plans, exiting when their stops are hit. The OEX tests historical resistance now, as well as the 30-sma at 565.79, but both the OEX and the advdec line show a possibility of a continued climb, depending on whether they're knocked back or not before the end of this 15-minute period.

Jeff Bailey : 10/4/2005 10:17:18 AM

QQQQ $39.74 +0.44% ... alert

Jeff Bailey : 10/4/2005 10:16:11 AM

10:00 Internals found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 10/4/2005 10:11:47 AM

RLX bouncing. Of course. It's still in the recent consolidation band, though. I think that's strung out long enough that it's losing its H&S look now, but the RLX is still between what would have been the neckline and what would have been the right shoulder. Still iffy, and looks iffy on a Keltner basis, too.

Linda Piazza : 10/4/2005 10:10:18 AM

The OEX is still testing the 30-minute 100/130-ema's from the underside, not yet able to break above them, but certainly not falling far from them. This is a level that bulls and bears both need to defend. The advdec line also tests a potentially strong support band, too, so it's natural to see the descent slow. Bears would like to see the advdec line keel over and bring the OEX down with it, but that's not happening yet. As I type, resistance looks strong on the advdec line, too, so there's either got to be a strong move to break up one or the other or there will be a period of congestion.

Linda Piazza : 10/4/2005 10:05:08 AM

As long as the SOX maintains 15-minute closes below a Keltner line currently at 477.69, it looks vulnerable to the one at 474.16.

Jeff Bailey : 10/4/2005 10:04:27 AM

10:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 10/4/2005 10:03:52 AM

Advdec line trying to steady at a support band from -170 to -25, with the advdec line at 122 as I type, QCharts value. Next support at -500 or so. Resistance looks strong up to about +550, too, though.

Linda Piazza : 10/4/2005 10:02:26 AM

OEX trying to bounce back up to the 30-minute 100/130-ema's at 564.70-564.89, and bears want that test to fail and a new LOD to be produced instead.

Linda Piazza : 10/4/2005 10:01:39 AM

Marketwatch reports U.S. Aug nondurable goods orders up 1.6%, durable goods orders revised higher to 3.4% from 3.3%, inventory-shipment ratio a record low 1.18, factory inventories falling 0.1%, and core capital goods orders up 3.1%. Shipments are up 1.7%, and the headline number up 2.5% versus an expected 2.0%.

Linda Piazza : 10/4/2005 9:59:57 AM

The RLX has erased most of today's gains now.

Linda Piazza : 10/4/2005 9:58:59 AM

The OEX didn't quite hit its Keltner downside target pre-10:00, but it's come close. Consider taking that partial profit now, if you haven't already done so, or exiting, if that's your style.

Jeff Bailey : 10/4/2005 9:57:53 AM

Placer Dome (PDG) $17.03 -0.46% Link ... DJ - The Philippine province of Marinduque is suing Placer Dome Inc. (PDG) for more than US$100 million in a Nevada court, a statement from MiningWatch Canada said Tuesday.

"The provincial government of Marinduque holds Placer Dome responsible for decades of destructive mining on the island," the statement said.

Linda Piazza : 10/4/2005 9:55:12 AM

RLX pulling back, but not significantly yet.

Linda Piazza : 10/4/2005 9:53:11 AM

The OEX's daily 200-ema is at 563.81 and the 10-sma at 563.50, another reason to consider taking at least partial profit on post-ISM bearish entries from yesterday if that level is approached. Those of you whose trading styles dictate going flat ahead of a potentially market-moving release need to do so soon.

Linda Piazza : 10/4/2005 9:50:43 AM

The OEX's daily Keltner chart looks as if a much lower value, perhaps about 559.50-560 is possible eventually, with that depending on continued daily closes beneath 566.19-566.79.

Linda Piazza : 10/4/2005 9:47:51 AM

OEX Keltner outlook. The OEX is setting a tentative downside target of 563.34. Those in bearish plays from the post-ISM period yesterday need to give strong consideration to taking partial profit if that is reached, if they haven't already, particularly if it's reached before the 10:00 numbers. All need to be considering whether it fits their trading styles to hold over a potentially market-moving announcement or whether their personal styles usually include taking total profit and standing aside. There's no right or wrong answer to this and it depends on the number of contracts you hold in proportion to your trading account size, among other factors.

Linda Piazza : 10/4/2005 9:45:33 AM

Advdec line still dropping, and the OEX dips just below the 30-minute 100-ema. The RLX pulls back only barely beneath the day's high, however, and OEX bears want to see more of a pullback on this sometimes-leading index.

Linda Piazza : 10/4/2005 9:41:40 AM

OEX sinking back toward the 30-minute 100-ema now, and is sitting right above it. That's at 564.72. Advdec line drawing back sharply, but back into potential support. RLX still gaining. No convincing evidence as yet that the OEX will drop through that average. The OEX looks as if it likely could, the advdec line looks as it might, but the RLX argues the opposite.

Jeff Bailey : 10/4/2005 9:41:31 AM

Program Trading Levels for Tuesday ... HL Camp & Company has their computers set for program buying at $+6.52 and set for program selling at $+3.52.

Linda Piazza : 10/4/2005 9:38:41 AM

Advdec line moving toward its first band of resistance from about 1300-1550, with the advdec line at 1184 as I type. This pop higher in the advdec line isn't yet accompanied by much of a pop higher in the OEX, at least. Those who were in bearish plays from the post-ISM period yesterday are gratified to see that reluctance to move higher, but need a decline below the 30-minute 100/130-ema's. There aren't many clues at this point as to whether that will happen, and particularly if it will happen before the 10:00 release.

Linda Piazza : 10/4/2005 9:35:39 AM

The RLX is currently rising. Although it looked as if it might have minimally confirmed a H&S on its 15-minute chart, it's back above the neckline this morning, but not yet above the right-shoulder area. Not much sense of direction to be gained from there, except for a warning that the OEX is going to retreat too far or too long if the RLX continues gaining. The RLX's action doesn't look particularly convincing just yet, but it bears watching.

Linda Piazza : 10/4/2005 9:31:34 AM

The OEX is opening at the 30-minute 100-ema, advdec line at potential support. No real direction signified yet, although an attempt to rise may be in the making. It's as noncommittal an opening as you could get.

Jane Fox : 10/4/2005 8:55:37 AM

Dateline WSJ Soaring oil prices have generated a record windfall for the world's petroleum producers. But they are managing it quite differently than in the past -- helping limit, so far, the damage to the global economy.

Oil exporters like Saudi Arabia are saving far more and spending far less than they did in earlier booms. In most cases, they are controlling state spending and saving or prudently investing much of the money, largely in assets held in the U.S. and Europe.

All that money pouring into financial markets, added to the huge flows coming from Asia's thrifty economies, is enabling Americans to keep spending while borrowing overseas -- thus fueling the U.S. economy.

That has helped keep interest rates low and asset prices high, even as rising oil prices take a toll on airlines, automobile owners and other oil consumers in the U.S. and Europe.

Linda Piazza : 10/4/2005 8:54:48 AM

For those who might have missed his late-day post, Jonathan will be gone today for a holiday. We wish you a happy and prosperous New Year, Jonathan. Return Wednesday refreshed and ready to help us all muddle through the inventories releases.

Linda Piazza : 10/4/2005 8:52:32 AM

Yesterday, OEX chart characteristics led me to expect an early bounce that might get knocked back post-ISM, producing either a doji or an actual red candle for the day. Although some of the day was spent as a doji, it was the red-candle-day version with which the OEX ended the day. However, it also ended right at its 30-minute 100/130-ema's, with those averages important over the last couple of weeks. They were at 564.72 and 564.91 as of yesterday's OEX close at 565.10.

If there's a gap below those averages this morning, look for potential support near 563.40-564.00. Those in bearish positions entered right after the ISM will want to have a profit-protecting plan for a test of that region, and that plan should include taking partial profit, if that wasn't done at the close yesterday. This is especially important considering the 10:00 release of factory orders, another potentially market-moving event. If the OEX has reached that first target in that 563.40-564 region ahead of the factory orders, you might want to lock in some profit.

On a bounce from that average, particularly if it occurs early in the session and ahead of the 10:00 release, look for a rollover beneath 567 or perhaps beneath 568.51 if the OEX invalidates its potential H&S and instead heads up to test an equal high. These are on 30-minute closes.

As I type, futures are near enough the flat-line level and fair values that there's little guidance. SunMicro is headed sharply higher in pre-market, Clorox headed sharply lower.

Linda Piazza : 10/4/2005 6:49:19 AM

Good morning. The Nikkei surged higher by 1.58% last night, with most other Asian markets posting gains, too. European markets are mixed, however. As of 6:41 EST, crude was down $0.70 to $64.77, gasoline was down $0.0210 and natural gas, up $0.0130. Our futures were modestly higher at that point. More details about Asian and European markets follows in succeeding paragraphs.

The Nikkei gapped higher Tuesday morning, on its way to a 213.56-point or 1.58% gain. It closed at 13,738.84, with exporters gaining due to the dollar's firming against the yen. Carmakers gained on the strength of their increasing U.S. sales, with Nissan's rising 16%, Honda's, 12%, and Toyota's, 10%. CSFB downgraded four general contractors in the face of a bottoming in long-term construction spending, and construction companies tended to decline, at least in early trading. Before the open, Minister of Finance Tanigaki reiterated that Japan was still in a mild deflationary period, but that the tankan survey results released yesterday did not change his opinion that the economy was in a recovery trend. He believes that oil prices might present a risk, however. The Nikkei Shimbun proposed that the electronics device sector's recovery is still sluggish. Further, speculation was that 2006 will be the low point of the PC repurchasing cycle, slowing the semiconductor demand. DRAM prices are stumbling and continued higher crude prices will cut into consumption, the speculation continued.

Most other Asian markets gained. The Taiwan Weighted gained 0.30%, and South Korea's Kospi rose 1.78%. South Korea's September consumer price index rose 2.7%, so there's some thought that a rate increase could come as early as next week, according to a Marketwatch.com article. Singapore's Straits Times climbed 0.97%, but Hong Kong's Hang Seng eased 0.08%. China's Shanghai Composite was still closed.

European markets are mixed, probably as a result of the mixture of oil majors and techs in the various indices. The U.K.'s BP announced that it would not be able to meet production or profit targets for the year due to the effects of Katrina and Rita, and it was dropping in early trading, bringing other European oil majors lower with it. Also, the U.K.'s insurance company Legal & General brought other peers lower with it as it said that proposed legislation by the British Treasury may result in a hefty charge taken in 2005. Across Europe, carmakers were reacting to U.S. sales figures, with DaimlerChrysler and Porsche dropping and BMW gaining.

European market watchers also pondered economic releases. The EU 12 PPI increased in August by 0.4% month over month and 4% year over year, down from July's 0.5% month over month and 4.1% year over year. As has been reported before, excluding energy, PPI did not show inflationary tendencies, up 0.1% month over month and 1.3% year over year, but recent figures have shown some risk that upside pressure may increase or continue. Also, another release showed that the EU12 unemployment figure increased to 8.6% in August, with Germany's jobless rate the highest. In the U.K., September's CIPS construction PMI fell to 57.2 from the previous 57.4, with the housing component also falling, to 50.2. However, other recent numbers lead to an expectation of a further increase in the next months, especially as new orders rose. One article cautions that August's number had been a more-than-a-year high, and so that a dip was expected.

As of 6:44 EST, the FTSE 100 was lower by 7.80 points or 0.14%, at 5,493.70. The CAC 40 was higher by 18.09 points or 0.39%, at 4,640.63. The DAX was higher by 21.82 points or 0.43%, at 5,103.89.

Market Monitor Archives