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Tab Gilles : 10/7/2005 12:42:46 AM

Murphy Oil (MUR) Link Link

MUR's energy production will be impacted by Katrina; approximately 30% of their production is from the Gulf of Mexico. The stock price more than reflects the lower production. Earnings will be up over 50% this year for MUR but year to date the stock is up about 15%. Earnings release Oct.24th. MUR has strong profitability and a very low valuation when measure by its P/E and price to sales ratio (less than 1). Link Link

Two LEAPS that look attractive here, Jan $40 '06 (MURAH) & Jan $42.5 '06 (MURAV). Link Link

Tab Gilles : 10/7/2005 12:16:05 AM

Nasdaq Summation Index ($NASI) Weekly... Link Daily... Link

Both signaling SELL/Bearish readings.

Exited Profund UOPIX position (per 10/5 8:10PM post) cost $23.11, exited @ $22.11 (-4.3%). Entered USPIX full position $17.36. All closing NAV's.

OI Technical Staff : 10/6/2005 9:59:59 PM

The Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

Disclaimer: Stocks discussed in the Market Monitor are for educational purposes only and any analysis is not meant to imply a recommendation for or against that stock. The analysts in this forum as on any other website are prohibited by the SEC from giving any specific advice to ANY individual trader. All information posted is for ALL readers and is not meant to be directed to any individual. Our analysts cannot answer any email questions regarding any specific stock. Please do not ask and please do not take offense if requests are denied.

Results posted in the Market Monitor are hypothetical and OIN does not claim that any reader achieved these exact results. Due to the lag time between research, writing, posting, uploading, reading and execution there will be differences between the actual signal given and the fill achieved by the reader. Fills may be better or worse but in most cases they will be different. The writers will make every effort to give advance notice of intended signals and indicate potential price targets. Your individual results may vary depending on your activity level and aggressiveness. This forum is intended as an education service only. Trading involves risk and should not be attempted by anyone not ready to accept this risk. By acting on any signal in this forum you agree and personally accept this risk.

Jeff Bailey : 10/6/2005 9:39:50 PM

US House GOP Conservatives Broker Deal on GSE Bill ... DJ - Conservative Republicans in the U.S. House agreed to a deal Thursday that could bring legislation retooling Fannie Mae's (FNM) Link and Freddie Mac's (FRE) Link regulation to a vote on the House floor by Oct. 17, according to people close to negotiations.

Members of the conservative Republican Study Committee brokered a deal with the bill's sponsor, Rep. Richard Baker, R-La., to lift their objections to a controversial provision that creates two separate affordable housing funds financed by a levy on the companies' profits.

The RSC, which blocked the measure for fear that the money would be used to fund liberal political campaigns, agreed to floor action on the broader bill as long as the measure prohibited money from going to groups that support get-out-the-vote, voter registration and other voter identification activities.

The broader legislation would combine and overhaul the regulation of Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and the Federal Home Loan Bank System.

Jeff Bailey : 10/6/2005 7:51:14 PM

JDS Uniphase (JDSU) $2.20 -0.22% ... Company said today that it had dismissed auditor Ernst & Young and hired Pricewaterhouse Coopers.

JDS Uniphase, which disclosed several material weaknesses in its internal controls over financial reporting on Sept. 30 in its annual report, didn't say Thursday why its board decided to approve dismissing Ernst & Young.

In a filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission, the company said E&Y's report on management's assessment of the effectiveness of internal control over financial reporting as of June 30 didn't contain an adverse opinion, although the auditor indicated that JDS Uniphase didn't maintain effective internal control over financial reporting as of that date because of material weaknesses.

Its its annual report, JDS Uniphase, which makes parts for fiber-optic networks, said the material weaknesses resulted in adjustments to several "significant accounts" that included revenue, investments, cash flows, stock-based compensation, foreign currency translation, restructuring accruals and investment, as well as stock-based compensation.

Jeff Bailey : 10/6/2005 7:12:23 PM

McDonald's (MCD) $32.73 -0.36% Link ... Company said today that it was closing all 8 of its restaurants in Jamaica for unspecified "business reasons."

Jeff Bailey : 10/6/2005 6:55:28 PM

Delta (DAL) $0.85 +7.59% Link ... Company said today that it is prepared to use the bankruptcy court to achieve $325 million in cost concessions from its pilots if the company and union can't reach a deal on their own.

On 09/22, eight days after filing for bankruptcy, Delta said it is targeting $930 million in annual savings from its employees, including $325 million from pilots. The cuts are part of a new turnaround plan that will shed up to 9,000 more jobs.

A year ago, the union agreed to $1 billion in annual concessions to help Delta avoid bankruptcy. But fuel prices soared, and Delta was forced to file for Chapter 11 anyway.

Jeff Bailey : 10/6/2005 6:51:36 PM

AMR Corp. (AMR) $12.41 +7.35% Link ... AP - May Raise Rates on Higher Fuel Costs - American's parent company, AMR Corp., expects to spend $5.75 billion on fuel this year - a 45% percent increase on top of last year's 43% jump.

Chief Executive Gerard Arpey saying American was paying the equivalent of $130 per barrel for jet fuel this week. "Just to cover the increase in fuel costs between 2003 and 2005, American would have had to raise fares nearly $75 per roundtrip ticket," he said. "Unfortunately, during this time period our average fare increased only $15."

Jeff Bailey : 10/6/2005 6:45:10 PM

Placer Dome (PDG) $16.56 +2.60% Link ... Speaks to Philippine Lawsuit (Update) ... Press Release Link

Jeff Bailey : 10/6/2005 7:04:10 PM

President Bush to Meet With Vaccine Producers ... DJ - Amid increasing concern over avian flu, U.S. President George W. Bush will meet with the heads of vaccine-manufacturing companies Friday to discuss ways to expand the mass production of a flu vaccine, the White House said Thursday.

The chief executive officers of Chiron Corp. (CHIR) Link Sanofi-Aventis (SNY) Link , Wyeth (WYE) Link , GlaxoSmithKline (GSK) Link Merck & Co. Inc. (MRK) Link and MedImmune Inc. (MEDI) Link will meet with Bush at 2:00 p.m. Friday, the White House said.

A number of manufacturers have stopped producing vaccines because of their exposure to lawsuits. Bush spokesman Scott McClellan said the issue will be discussed in the meeting.

"One of the concerns that manufacturers have had is certainly the issue of liability and lawsuits," McClellan said.

The president also met with his top advisers Thursday in the White House to discuss avian flu, and how the government can prepare for a potential outbreak.

Jeff Bailey : 10/6/2005 6:03:55 PM

Just noticing the SPY low of the day was that 04/05/05 close. It was that evening I noted two (2) 500,000 share blocks of SPY printed at 04:42:51 and 04:43:22 at $118.17. Aslo saw a 2 million share block crossed at $118.17.

Jeff Bailey : 10/6/2005 5:14:20 PM

NYC Police Likely to Raise Alert Level on Subways ... DJ - New York Police Commissioner Raymond Kelly is expected to raise the terror-alert level Thursday in the city's subway system due to a perceived, but yet unspecified, threat, Cable News Network reported.

CNN said that Kelly is expected to conduct a news conference shortly.

Law enforcement sources told Newsday a "credible threat" to the subway system has prompted a vast mobilization of police officers.

Jeff Bailey : 10/6/2005 5:11:04 PM

Closing U.S. Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 10/6/2005 5:00:00 PM

Closing Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 10/6/2005 4:25:50 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles found at this Link ... Today's Activity ... Closed out 2/3 of the bullish calls in Matrix Services and the (MTRX Feb. $7.50 Calls (QXW-BU) at the bid of $1.90 ($+0.45, or 31.03%).

Bought back the covered puts for Apple Computer and the AAPL Oct. $47.50 (QAA-VW) at the offer of $0.75 ($+0.15, or +16.67%).

Swing trade shorted 1/2 position in shares of Sun Microsystems (SUNW) at the bid of $4.16. Stop $4.30 to begin, targeting $3.95.

Jonathan Levinson : 10/6/2005 4:15:06 PM

QQQQ 3-year weekly chart at this Link

Linda Piazza : 10/6/2005 3:58:24 PM

The OEX is currently testing that five-minute 21-ema, but we won't have the answer as to whether the close will be above it until the market close. Bears, you had plenty of time and plenty of warnings (too many, some would say) and have presumably already acted upon your end of day decisions. Hope some of you captured a bit more of that profit than I did.

Jonathan Levinson : 10/6/2005 3:52:00 PM

QQQQ has just broken upside 30 min channel resistance. This is a sell signal for me, but I'm not taking it. With the intraday cycles nowhere near overbought, the risk is too high: Link

Jeff Bailey : 10/6/2005 3:50:39 PM

Buy Program Premium ... DIA $102.89, SPX 1,191.66, QQQQ $38.28

Linda Piazza : 10/6/2005 3:48:51 PM

Here's a stronger bounce attempt beginning on the OEX and on the advdec line, too. The OEX has to close a 15-minute period above the 15-minute 21-ema, currently at 551.88 before there's even a tentative change in tenor, so it could all still just fall apart. But the OEX has hit my target and here it goes, and that gut feeling of mine would have me outta there! If I hadn't already been out, for a piddling little profit.

Jeff Bailey : 10/6/2005 3:46:28 PM

Buy Program Premium ... DIA $102.64, SPX 1,187.61, QQQQ $38.14

Jeff Bailey : 10/6/2005 3:45:46 PM

Tweeter Home Ent. (TWTR) $4.59 +40.79% ... selling long into the close.

Jonathan Levinson : 10/6/2005 3:44:55 PM

QQQQ takes a tall wavelet bounce here from the 37.92 low, that cycle just topping now as the short cycle indicators begin to turn up. First sign of trouble for bears is a break above the 72 SMA at 38.23: Link

Jeff Bailey : 10/6/2005 3:41:16 PM

New Quarterly Program Trading Curbs ... at this Link

Linda Piazza : 10/6/2005 3:40:36 PM

Once again, the advdec line is at another zone of potential support. The OEX has approached another zone of potential support. If you took my advice earlier and began aggressively lowering stops, you still haven't been stopped out, as there's been a straight-down dive since then, but MOC orders come through soon. Keep lowering them with any downward move in the OEX. I would not leave a full bearish position on the table tonight.

Jonathan Levinson : 10/6/2005 3:38:15 PM

Volume breadth -4.76:1 on the NYSE, -4.18:1 on the Nasdaq.

Jonathan Levinson : 10/6/2005 3:37:03 PM

QQQQ update (downdate?) at this Link

Linda Piazza : 10/6/2005 3:34:46 PM

And there's OEX 548! Join me in a little stomp-around-the-office war dance.

Jonathan Levinson : 10/6/2005 3:33:40 PM

QQQQ is on a new daily cycle sell signal off the Tuesday doji spike that stopped me out of my 39.74 short. Below 38, we're looking at light support at 37.75 and stronger confluence at 37.50. Here's a rough daily chart to show the magnitude of today's break: Link

Linda Piazza : 10/6/2005 3:32:10 PM

Here's a sobering possibility for the SPX, although you'll have to sort through a messy chart: Link

Jonathan Levinson : 10/6/2005 3:28:25 PM

QQQQ with fib grid on the intraday action, with a current low of 38.06: Link

Linda Piazza : 10/6/2005 3:27:46 PM

Will someone tell me to pay attention to my own pre-market analysis from now on? Here's the OEX just above my 548-548.20-ish downside target from this morning. The low of the day has been 548.68. However, there is still tentative bullish price/RSI divergence here and the advdec line has slipped only down to next potential support, and I still think you need to be lowering your stops aggressively, as bounce potential rises. Somewhere between 546.50-548 should be strong support.

Jonathan Levinson : 10/6/2005 3:26:14 PM

Volume breadth down to -3.37:1 on the NYSE, -3.36:1 on the Nasdaq.

Jonathan Levinson : 10/6/2005 3:25:34 PM

Big volume here, 130.75M QQQQs so far, well above average.

Linda Piazza : 10/6/2005 3:23:32 PM

When considering when to exit, the possibility that the OEX will dip to the bottom of its broadening formation must be considered, with that formation's bottom at about 546.50 currently.

Linda Piazza : 10/6/2005 3:22:10 PM

Advdec line still trying to steady.

Jonathan Levinson : 10/6/2005 3:20:14 PM

QQQQ update at this Link with volume breadth down to -2.86:1 for the Nasdaq and channel support down to 38.10. The SOX is probing new lows here below 458.

Linda Piazza : 10/6/2005 3:21:39 PM

Advdec line still attempting to steady. OEX still showing bullish price/RSI divergence. It's still sinking, but this divergence is going to mean something sometime. Bears need to consider now whether they intend to hold overnight and make decisions about setting stops accordingly. If you don't intend to hold overnight, I'd be lowering stops aggressively, and letting a bounce take you out, if one occurs. If you do plan to hold overnight, I'd perhaps widen my stops accordingly, in case a late-day bounce occurs. Since Tuesday afternoon, the OEX has been finding resistance on 15-minute closes at the 15-minute 21-ema, currently at 552.52, and that's one possibility, but I personally wouldn't want to let that much of my profit get away from me if this was intended as a scalping play anyway and I wanted out by the close. If I hadn't closed out my position earlier when I got some bad news, I'd taking the lowering-stops-aggressively route about now or maybe even closing my position, but I'm often willing to exit and lose the possibility of participating in the last few points and some aren't.

Jeff Bailey : 10/6/2005 3:18:14 PM

03:00 Internals found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 10/6/2005 3:10:48 PM

New LOD on the OEX and the advdec line slipping toward stronger -3100 potential support.

Jonathan Levinson : 10/6/2005 3:09:47 PM

Session lows across the board here, NYSE volume breadth dropping to -3.13:1.

Linda Piazza : 10/6/2005 3:10:04 PM

I don't know whether to call the OEX's pattern on the 15-minute chart since yesterday morning a descending regression channel or a descending wedge. They have different connotations, with the narrowing form of a descending wedge typically being bullish, but there's bullish price/RSI divergence on the bottoms there, too, so there's at least the chance that this one is a wedge.

The advdec line is driving that -2750 support lower, currently to about -2800, with further support in the -3100 region. Advdec line at -2868 as I type, QCharts version.

Linda Piazza : 10/6/2005 3:04:55 PM

The Nasdaq 200-ema is at 2082.21, with the Nasdaq LOD at 2083.03. The 200-sma is just below, too. Nasdaq at 2085.03.

Jeff Bailey : 10/6/2005 3:03:51 PM

03:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 10/6/2005 3:01:55 PM

The advdec line is indeed trying to stabilize above about -2750. Its stabilization is tentative at best right now, however. A push down to next support at about -3100 currently remains possible. Advdec line at -2640 as I type, QCharts value.

Jonathan Levinson : 10/6/2005 2:55:18 PM

QQQQ chart at this Link , 30 min channel support down to 38.15.

Linda Piazza : 10/6/2005 2:55:11 PM

I'm still watching for the possibility that the -2750 level may prove to be support for the advdec line. About -3050 looks to be next strong support below that. I'm beginning to get that nervous, itching-to-get-out feeling when I think a play might be reaching its limit or close to it. I thought this morning that OEX 548 might be a potential target based on a fitted Fib bracket, but I'm getting close to that get-out-now feeling and I'm not even still in a bearish play. This is just a gut feeling, but if I were still in a bearish play and I hadn't taken partial profits, at least, I'd sure be doing it right now.

Jeff Bailey : 10/6/2005 2:52:45 PM

Swing trade close out naked put alert ... Close out (buy back) the Apple Computer AAPL Oct. $47.50 Put (QAA-VW) at the offer of $0.75.

AAPL $51.82 -1.81% here.

Jonathan Levinson : 10/6/2005 2:52:30 PM

Volume breadth -2.71:1 on the NYSE, -2.12:1 on the Nasdaq.

Linda Piazza : 10/6/2005 2:44:59 PM

I'm watching for the possibility that -2750 support might hold on the advdec line. It's at -2383 as I type. I keep seeing continued bullish price/RSI divergence on the OEX's 15-minute chart, although it's only tentative as I type for the latest dip. I haven't seen enough signs yet to convince me that an automatic exit should be made on any still in short-term bearish OEX trades, but it may be getting closer. Protect your profits.

Jonathan Levinson : 10/6/2005 2:43:35 PM

Go get em, Mark!

Jonathan Levinson : 10/6/2005 2:42:12 PM

Session high for gold at 475.90, silver +.114 at 7.594. Crude oil closed -1.45 at 61.35, off a low of 60.70, and natgas -.795 at 13.39, low of 13.36.

Jonathan Levinson : 10/6/2005 2:38:44 PM

QQQQ - Exit Point Alert -

Out QQQQ at 38.28, breakeven. They got us to the tick.

Jonathan Levinson : 10/6/2005 2:32:32 PM

Volume breadth -2.33:1 on the NYSE, -2.01:1 on the Nasdaq.

Linda Piazza : 10/6/2005 2:27:01 PM

So far, the advdec line bounce hasn't gone far and neither has the OEX's. The advdec line hasn't even moved as high as I thought it might. Resistance still holds so far.

Jonathan Levinson : 10/6/2005 2:26:40 PM

Our long is 5 cents' to the good after QQQQ failed at S1 from below. If the short cycle bulls don't pick it up from here, we'll likely get stopped for breakeven on the way to a lower low: Link

Jeff Bailey : 10/6/2005 2:24:08 PM

02:00 Internals found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 10/6/2005 2:18:59 PM

QQQQ's short cycle is throwing a preliminary bullish cross, the wavelet cycle approaching overbought. Bulls need to get back above S1 at 38.42: Link

Linda Piazza : 10/6/2005 2:16:27 PM

I think it's likely the OEX will retest the 15-minute 21-ema on an advdec line bounce, if it's strong enough, with that MA now at 553.59, and with the OEX now at 551.29. Reset your stops accordingly, as to whether you want to weather that bounce or not.

Jonathan Levinson : 10/6/2005 2:15:30 PM

Volume breadth -2.36:1 on the NYSE, -2.11:1 on the Nasdaq.

Linda Piazza : 10/6/2005 2:14:30 PM

Watching the advdec line, here's what I see: There's the potential for a bounce now, up into the -1800 to -1250 zone, where resistance lines are thick. They're not too thick to prevent a bounce attempt, but should at least slow the advdec line, if not turn it back. Turning it back lower still looks like a distinct possibility and I don't see a strong support level here for the advdec line unless I'm missing something. So, although I'm looking for a sign that it's a time to close bearish plays and for aggressive longs who like countertrend plays (I don't) to try one, I just don't see a strong signal for that right now. I don't always get new entry signals. Some good plays are missed, but I'm just not seeing it yet, even though I "think" I ought to be seeing it, with the OEX having approached 550 and although I do think the advdec line will bounce at least a bit.

Jonathan Levinson : 10/6/2005 2:11:17 PM

QQQQ - Stop Loss Adjustment Alert -

QQQQ long at 38.28, to breakeven

Linda Piazza : 10/6/2005 2:09:32 PM

Still tentative bullish price/RSI divergence on this latest OEX dip.

Linda Piazza : 10/6/2005 2:08:35 PM

In my 8:51:15 post this morning, I noted that the OEX 548-ish level looked possible based on a fitted Fib bracket, but don't hold out for the last little point or two, as there's some art to fitting a bracket, and the target isn't always exact.

I also said in that post that I expected a bounce (but maybe to 556-558, and it didn't get quite that high) and then maybe a rollover, maybe into the 548-ish area, but maybe not all today. Wish I'd listened to myself a bit more and held onto that bearish position a bit longer, but as I commented when I exited, the news here made me lose focus for a while and I distrusted my analysis. Going flat in such circumstances can be a good account-management decision, as a trading friend reminded me.

Jonathan Levinson : 10/6/2005 2:05:15 PM

The market feels like it's full of lead, but our 3 cent QQQQ stop is still intact: Link

Jeff Bailey : 10/6/2005 2:04:45 PM

02:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 10/6/2005 2:03:27 PM

Advdec line still descending, and that's good for OEX bears. A warning: OEX 550 may be too round a number for dip-buyers to resistance, so have your profit-protecting plans in place. I advised this morning that you who were considering entering a bearish play choose an option with as high a delta as possible, so you should have some decent gains here with the OEX almost 3 points below where the entry would have been. If you're still in the play and didn't get stopped out or didn't elect to exit with me when the OEX dipped to retest yesterday's late-day low, then absolutely do not let your gains turn to losses.

Jonathan Levinson : 10/6/2005 2:01:38 PM

QQQQ - Entry Point Alert -

Long QQQQ at 38.28 stop 38.25

Jonathan Levinson : 10/6/2005 2:01:13 PM

QQQQ's 30 min channel declines toward S2 at 38.29.

Jeff Bailey : 10/6/2005 1:57:23 PM

Swing trade short alert 1/2 position in shares of Sun Microsystems (SUNW) $4.16 here, stop $4.30, target $3.95

Jonathan Levinson : 10/6/2005 1:56:20 PM

Volume breadth -2.11:1 on the NYSE, -1.9:1 on the Nasdaq.

Linda Piazza : 10/6/2005 1:55:33 PM

There went the advdec line support and the OEX's, too. The advdec line is still within "testing" range, but so far, so good for any still in OEX bearish positions.

Jonathan Levinson : 10/6/2005 1:54:33 PM

QQQQ tests S2 here at the low, but breadth is deteriorating and the short cycle indicators are only now starting to roll from their lower low. 30 min channel support continues to dive, now down to 38.35: Link

Jonathan Levinson : 10/6/2005 1:49:54 PM

QQQQ drops back to the bottom of the range, with 30 min channel support down to 38.39: Link

Linda Piazza : 10/6/2005 1:47:04 PM

Advdec line dipping again, but it needs to dip further to give bears a safer feeling. Otherwise, there's risk of setting up an equilibrium position, one in which there's little information to be gained from choppy movements back and forth. Bears want to see the advdec line below about -1500 to -1550. It's currently at -1269, QCharts value.

Jonathan Levinson : 10/6/2005 1:42:07 PM

It looks like QQQQ is holding a short cycle upphase here, and given the lack of price action, it's so far corrective and weak. Bulls need to take out the 72 SMA at 38.67 to avoid its topping at lower high, setting up for a more aggressive retest of the session lows: Link

Jeff Bailey : 10/6/2005 1:38:15 PM

Exxon/Mobil (XOM) $58.96 +0.01% ... a bright spot among energy producers today.

Jeff Bailey : 10/6/2005 1:34:48 PM

Italy canceling 80% of Iraqi debt ... DJ - The Government of Iraq today announced that it has signed a bilateral agreement with Italy canceling the equivalent of U.S.$2.4 billion of Iraqi debt, amounting to 80% of Italy's claims against Iraq. The bilateral agreement implements the Agreed Minute concluded in November 2004 between Iraq and eighteen Paris Club creditor countries.

This is the third bilateral agreement that Iraq has signed with its Paris Club creditors. In December of last year, the United States of America cancelled the entirety of its claims and Canada cancelled 80% of its claims against Iraq this past June.

Linda Piazza : 10/6/2005 1:33:54 PM

GE continues to find support on 15-minute closes above a Keltner line currently at 33.54, and strings out its candle bodies along a line currently at 33.57. GE is at 33.57 as I type, and probably needs to break that pattern before the OEX can drop too far.

Jeff Bailey : 10/6/2005 1:30:12 PM

Tweeter Home Ent. (TWTR) $4.57 +40.18% ... sings a high note and breaks above intra-day congestion.

Linda Piazza : 10/6/2005 1:26:59 PM

Advdec line turning tentatively lower from a lower high, back toward support. For any still in bearish OEX plays, that's what you want to see. You want to see it break through the next support, down to about -1550, too. It's at -1104 as I type, still coiling. If you're nervous about a bounce, take any of these OEX retests of the low to exit. While resistance keeps holding on the OEX and on the advdec line, support is trying to firm on the advdec line, and the setup there remains iffier than early this morning.

Jeff Bailey : 10/6/2005 1:30:05 PM

Goldcorp (GG) $19.37 +0.83% ... threatens to backfill this morning's gap higher. WEEKLY S2 $19.20 found some buyers yesterday.

Jonathan Levinson : 10/6/2005 1:23:36 PM

QQQQ update at this Link . The daily cycle indicators are printing bearish kisses intraday, and a sell signal is a lock unless QQQQ bounces about 30-50 cents from here before the close. Ths intraday pattern managed to baffle me, and the oscillator picture intraday is a mess because all intraday timeframes have been trending.

Jeff Bailey : 10/6/2005 1:21:57 PM

Goody's Family Clothing (GDYS) $8.98 +23.14% ... zips higher from $8.25 in last 10-minutes.

Jonathan Levinson : 10/6/2005 1:18:32 PM

That's one of the holy grails - a directional futures trade that you can hold for months.

Linda Piazza : 10/6/2005 1:16:07 PM

The OEX's 15-minute chart has been showing bullish price/RSI divergence since yesterday, and that includes on the recent new low. That's a warning to bears, but not a definitive sign yet, but added to my reasoning for suggesting in my 12:37:44 that all but the bears who wanted to make their own decisions anyway should exit. The advdec line is climbing again, too, but it's not even giving tentative approval to any kind of bounce idea just yet. It's not giving needed confirmation of more downside, either, especially when it's climbing in this moment, but watch resistance in the -300 to zero zone.

Jeff Bailey : 10/6/2005 1:13:49 PM

01:00 Internals found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 10/6/2005 1:08:04 PM

Stepping away for 10 minutes.

Linda Piazza : 10/6/2005 1:06:56 PM

OEX perhaps headed back to the 15-minute 21-ema, currently at 554.66. Bears want continued 15-minute closes beneath this average. It's at 554.04 as I type. Bears also want 30-minute closes benath a Keltner line currently at 554.63.

Jeff Bailey : 10/6/2005 1:03:02 PM

01:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 10/6/2005 1:02:21 PM

QQQQ surges back up to the 72 SMA here at 38.68: Link

Linda Piazza : 10/6/2005 1:01:02 PM

The TRAN is trying to build an inverse H&S at the bottom of its steep decline. The head is there, at yesterday's low, and the current pullback is into a possible right-shoulder level. There was bullish price/RSI divergence as the head was formed, which bulls want to see. The neckline currently appears to be at about 3694, although it's still rising, and I'd want to see a move above the 3697.58 HOD before I believed that was being confirmed. Note that there's also Keltner resistance at 3706.85 on 15-minute closes, and the TRAN absolutely does sometimes adhere fairly well to these Keltner levels. Not on a day like yesterday, when breakdowns were occurring everywhere, but I wouldn't ignore the possibility that the TRAN could zoom up (during the 1:35-1:55 typical stop-running time of day, perhaps) to confirm that inverse H&S, hit that Keltner resistance and then turn over again. Why do we OEX traders care? The TRAN sometimes leads other indices, particularly the Dow, SPX and OEX, in the same way that the SOX sometimes leads the tech-related indices.

Jonathan Levinson : 10/6/2005 1:00:38 PM

Volume breadth -1.21:1 on the NYSE, -1.4:1 on the Nasdaq.

Jeff Bailey : 10/6/2005 12:55:31 PM

Valero Energy (VLO) $104.50 -1.20% ... off session low that undercut the $100.00 at $99.50.

Linda Piazza : 10/6/2005 12:55:23 PM

GE keeps finding support on 15-minute closes above a Keltner line currently at 33.48. It needs to change that pattern before the OEX has too much chance of falling too far. GE at 33.60 as I type, near the day's 33.68 high.

Jonathan Levinson : 10/6/2005 12:50:59 PM

QQQQ's short cycle indicators are buried in oversold, and unless they're going to start a bearish trending move, a bounce should begin setting up. There has yet to be break of the lower channel supports, no terminal downside surge, and that 38.42 S1 level has yet to be tested: Link

Jeff Bailey : 10/6/2005 12:46:35 PM

Costco Wholesale (COST) $44.63 +4% ... Q4 comparable-store sales up 7%.

Tab Gilles : 10/6/2005 12:46:28 PM

$NASI Daily and weekly charts signal bear/sell. Switching back to USPIX from UOPIX today on closing NAV's. Link Link

Linda Piazza : 10/6/2005 12:44:47 PM

For those bears still in an OEX play from this morning, the advdec line is still testing the support at about -1313, currently. It's building a potential bearish right triangle (flat bottom, descending highs), and these formations sometimes do matter on the advdec line, just as they do with equity prices. However, also just as with equity prices, you can't count on a bearish right triangle breaking to the downside, but it's still better than having something bullish sitting on that chart. OEX bears would like to see the advdec line drop through about -1650. It's at -1252 as I type, QCharts value.

Jonathan Levinson : 10/6/2005 12:41:53 PM

New session low for QQQQ: Link

Linda Piazza : 10/6/2005 12:37:43 PM

This is why I use the advdec line rather than absolute OEX values alone for my style of OEX plays. The advdec line was iffier than it had been earlier, but never screamed that it was time to get out of this bearish OEX play. I, however, am exiting now, because of the situation going on here and my lack of ability to focus carefully on both my own plays and my work. I needed to lessen the load somewhere, so have personally gone flat. The advdec line currently tests the same support that held it up earlier, so I think I'd suggest that all but those who feel comfortable making their own decisions exit here, too. I'll still cover what I'm seeing, but distrust my focus right now.

Linda Piazza : 10/6/2005 12:33:09 PM

Slight new low, below yesterday's late-day low, on the OEX. Bears want to see follow through.

Jeff Bailey : 10/6/2005 12:32:35 PM

Sell Program Premium ... DIA $103.15, SPX 1,195.30, QQQQ $38.56.

Jonathan Levinson : 10/6/2005 12:31:58 PM

QQQQ holds 4 cents above the session low, the 30 min channel ticking back lower: Link

Linda Piazza : 10/6/2005 12:30:17 PM

The advdec line now has dropped to next support. Needs to keep dropping. OEX bears want to see a new LOD, too.

Linda Piazza : 10/6/2005 12:28:14 PM

Advdec line dropping.

Jeff Bailey : 10/6/2005 12:24:14 PM

12:00 Internals found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 10/6/2005 12:19:28 PM

Volume breadth back down to -1.08:1 on the NYSE, -1.29:1 on the Nasdaq.

Linda Piazza : 10/6/2005 12:16:56 PM

My first impression pre-market was that the OEX was likely to bounce up toward 556-558 resistance, at which point I'd look for a bearish entry, and then might pull back, perhaps even through the opening level. We're getting that early rise that I expected, but the advdec line's early action--that swift pullback from first resistance hit--suggested that the OEX might not bounce for long or as high as I had expected and that a bearish entry was at least an okay risk. The advdec line hasn't done anything terrible yet to scream that the play ought to be exited (although it should if your stops have been hit) but neither has it done anything that's particularly comforting for bears, either. Resistance continues to hold, but support is trying to firm and it coils. Meanwhile, the OEX continues to challenge the 19.1% retracement of its steep decline and the 15-minute 21-ema, at 555.63 and 555.20, respectively.

Jonathan Levinson : 10/6/2005 12:09:55 PM

GE continues to hold a strong 2.66% gain at 33.55, off a low of 33.18 and 4 cents off its session high. GE raised full year guidance today and expects to achieve the "high-end" of its Q3 projections: Link As well, the company announced that it plans on adding another 1B to its already 4B+ share repurchase plan this year.

Linda Piazza : 10/6/2005 12:08:49 PM

Resistance still holding on the advdec line, but it's not retreating again. The OEX is again retesting the 15-minute 21-ema, now at 555.30.

Jonathan Levinson : 10/6/2005 12:05:24 PM

Session high for Dec. gold here, +6.2 t 475.60. Silver is up 14.5 cents at 7.625, while crude oil and natgas hold the bulk of their losses, currently 61.55 and 13.83 respectively.

Jeff Bailey : 10/6/2005 12:03:46 PM

12:00 Market Watch at this Link

Linda Piazza : 10/6/2005 12:02:29 PM

Thanks, Marc, for your thoughts for Emmi and for those who have expressed them privately.

Linda Piazza : 10/6/2005 11:59:08 AM

Advdec resistance still relatively firm, but support is trying to firm, too. Still iffy and still enough reason for conservative OEX bears to just exit and take their (hopefully small) lumps. GE has got to pull back before the OEX pulls back too far, and, currently, GE heads back up to retest the high of the day.

Jonathan Levinson : 10/6/2005 11:53:51 AM

A new short cycle downphase has kicked off, and this is a key pullback. If it bottoms at a higher QQQQ low, then the 30/60 min cycles should get a bullish boost, raising a stronger likelihood of the next short cycle upphase breaking to a higher relative high above 38.85. A lower low below 38.55 would set up a test of S1 at 38.42 for starters, below which next confluence support is in the 38.27 area.

Linda Piazza : 10/6/2005 11:50:05 AM

Back. Sorry for the time away, but I unfortunately just learned this morning that, in addition to my 18-month-old granddaughter's other difficulties, she is deaf. It took a while to refocus here.

So, I am refocused. The OEX did indeed hit the 19.1% retracement of the steep decline and the 15-minute 21-ema, as I expected that it might. If you have not yet exited the bearish OEX play entered this morning, the climb still looks bear-flag-ish, and the advdec line's resistance still holds. The advdec line is still coiling, however, with the direction of the breakout as yet unknown. So, the evidence in support of the bearish play is a bit more iffy than it was earlier, at the time of my 9:48 post. In the minute aftet the post, the OEX ranged from a low of 553.12 to a high of 553.31, so an entry would likely have been made somewhere through there, with the OEX eventually bumping as high as 555.65 afterwards.

Jeff Bailey : 10/6/2005 11:49:40 AM

Matrix Services (MTRX) $8.92 +13.19% ... notable new 52-weeker at the NASDAQ.

Jonathan Levinson : 10/6/2005 11:49:08 AM

QQQQ cracks lower rising linear regression support here, also ticking back below 72 SMA support: Link

Jeff Bailey : 10/6/2005 11:40:00 AM

10 Most Active ... QQQQ $38.76 (unch), SPY $120.07 +0.37%, MSFT $24.81 +0.56%, IWM $64.21 +0.17%, XLE $49.05 -1.14%, INTC $24.16 +0.37%, JDSU $2.22 -1.33%, EWJ $11.75 -0.92%, SUNW $4.22 +0.23%, CSCO $17.61 +0.62%

Jonathan Levinson : 10/6/2005 11:33:14 AM

Crude oil is up to a 1.25 loss at 61.55, natgas -.405 at 13.78.

Jonathan Levinson : 10/6/2005 11:25:46 AM

Volume breadth +1.03:1 on the NYSE, +1.62:1 on the Nasdaq.

Jonathan Levinson : 10/6/2005 11:24:13 AM

QQQQ has pivot resistance 38.88, but obviously if the longer intraday cycle are going to turn up, that level will be easily broken. The short cycle has so far provided all of the lift for QQQQ, and it's approaching overbought territory. This is where the longer intraday cycle bulls will have to carry the ball: Link

Jeff Bailey : 10/6/2005 11:18:14 AM

I need to shut down form about 15 minutes.

Jonathan Levinson : 10/6/2005 11:18:11 AM

Session highs across the board, QQQQ above 38.80: Link

Jeff Bailey : 10/6/2005 11:17:24 AM

Dow Transports (TRAN) 3,693.42 +1.92% ...

Jeff Bailey : 10/6/2005 11:16:57 AM

Dow Jones Home Construction (DJUSHB) 888.24 -1.42% ... I can't get my U.S. Market Watch to updated the % change.

Jeff Bailey : 10/6/2005 11:15:13 AM

11:00 Internals found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 10/6/2005 11:15:06 AM

The 30 and 60 min cyles have yet to turn up for QQQQ, though the 30 min channel is on the cusp. I think most participants, myself included, expect a bounce here, which leads me to doubt it. Nonetheless, the short cycle price bias is bullish so long as price holds above the 72 SMA at 38.67-.68: Link

Linda Piazza : 10/6/2005 11:13:31 AM

The OEX is approaching that 15-minute 21-ema that I thought it might be approaching. The advdec line is testing that former support to see if it holds as resistance, but there's a possibility of a renewed climb up toward about +1100.

I, unfortunately, have to step away. As I've cautioned all day, adhere to your stops, if hit. I think the 556-558 level should be the next at which rollover potential exists.

Jonathan Levinson : 10/6/2005 11:11:10 AM

Session highs for GE and ES here. Volume breadth is -1.15:1 for the NYSE, -1.04:1 for the Nasdaq. Ten year notes are at a new low, TNX up .7 bps at 4.368%.

Linda Piazza : 10/6/2005 11:08:45 AM

I think the OEX is probably likely to test the 15-minute 21-ema at 555.48, important on 15-minute closes. That would also be about a 19.1% retracement of the steep decline. The advdec line is still retesting resistance, not yet at the strongest, now at -300 or so.

Jeff Bailey : 10/6/2005 11:06:43 AM

FedEx (FDX) $82.27 +1.99% ... busts a move.

Linda Piazza : 10/6/2005 11:05:29 AM

So far, the OEX's Keltner resistance at 554.33-554.51 still holds on 15-minute closes, but the OEX keeps challenging that, converting what had looked like a potential neutral triangle into a more bullish-looking one (flat top, rising support line). Nothing alarming is happening yet on the advdec line, but if it hangs around at this -700 to -800 level too much longer, support is going to build.

Jeff Bailey : 10/6/2005 11:03:06 AM

10:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 10/6/2005 11:02:33 AM

Advdec line still climbing up to retest resistance now at about -350, with the advdec line now at -712 (QCharts value).

Linda Piazza : 10/6/2005 10:59:55 AM

BUD is another strong gainer among OEX components and it's still climbing, although currently producing a doji on the about-to-be-completed 15-minute candle, currently challenging its 10-sma at 43.08, with BUD just a little above that, at 43.15.

Jeff Bailey : 10/6/2005 10:59:23 AM

Matrix Services (MTRX) ... updated bar chart with retracement work shown in past at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 10/6/2005 10:59:06 AM

Good Morning Jon, I am looking for a new quote service. I have been using Bridge (Reuters), which is free with my account, but it leaves off some things to be desired. Which service do you use? Does IB, include a good service?

IB's portfolio screen refreshes in realtime. For more involved charting and other functions, I've added Quotetracker, which is free with ads (no ads for a yearly fee). My intraday charts are generated with Quotetracker being fed by IB's data. Other data feeds work as well. I've also used OptionsXpress' data feed before, but that's been it.

Linda Piazza : 10/6/2005 10:57:27 AM

The RLX's 15-minute and 30-minute Keltner charts are inconclusive, not giving hints of next direction. It's between support and resistance on both, with both about equally weighted.

Jeff Bailey : 10/6/2005 10:55:13 AM

Matrix Services (MTRX) ... Trader's note: On Tuesday 10/04/05, I reviewed the MTRX option chain and noted 242 contracts traded at $0.90 in the May $10 Calls (QXW-EB). This was the day the company announced the private placement of 2.3 million shares at $6.50 per share.

Levels to watch near-term ... $10.00 +/- $0.90, or $9.20-$10.90.

Jonathan Levinson : 10/6/2005 10:54:25 AM

72 SMA support at 38.68 QQQQ being tested again here.

Jonathan Levinson : 10/6/2005 10:51:27 AM

Volume breadth is up to -1.2:1 on the NYSE, -1.06:1 on the Nasdaq.

Jonathan Levinson : 10/6/2005 10:51:02 AM

QQQQ is rising beneath the previous session high, after an upside resolution to the pennant noted earlier. The short cycle has turned up, and QQQQ just found support above the 72 SMA, the first such successful test today: Link

Linda Piazza : 10/6/2005 10:49:57 AM

Advdec line suddenly surging, up into the resistance band being tested.

Linda Piazza : 10/6/2005 10:47:44 AM

Advdec line rises to retest former support, now having risen up to about -350, with the advdec line now at -763, QCharts value.

Linda Piazza : 10/6/2005 10:47:01 AM

The OEX tests that gathered Keltner resistance from 554.35-554.72 on 15-minute closes, with the OEX currently at 554.28.

Jonathan Levinson : 10/6/2005 10:46:56 AM

Session low for 10-yr note futures here, with TNX up to a .8 bp loss at 4.353%. IRX is up 1.3 bps at 3.503%.

Linda Piazza : 10/6/2005 10:43:49 AM

GE still moving up and still spoiling what might have been a good OEX bearish play. Advdec line still looking okay for a bearish play.

Jeff Bailey : 10/6/2005 10:43:06 AM

Matrix Services (MTRX) $8.60 +9.13% ...

Linda Piazza : 10/6/2005 10:41:57 AM

OEX's 15-minute Keltner resistance is at 554.26-554.81 on 15-minute closes, with next resistance at 556.05. The OEX is at 553.76 as I type.

Jeff Bailey : 10/6/2005 10:40:52 AM

Swing trade call close out 2/3 alert Let's sell 2/3 of the Matrix Services MTRX Feb. $7.50 Calls (QXW-BU) at the bid of $1.90.

Linda Piazza : 10/6/2005 10:39:56 AM

By the tools I use to enter and exit trades, the OEX's bearish trade is still working. Of course, you might argue, the OEX isn't dropping. That's true, and that absolutely needs to happen, with GE perhaps spoiling the whole play. These trades are not foolproof, and I'm still watching the advdec line closely to see if it gives me clues that it's time to exit. Hasn't done it yet, though, but adhere to your stops if hit.

Jeff Bailey : 10/6/2005 10:38:36 AM

Naked put cancel order alert ... Cancel order to sell naked the Apache Corp APA Nov. $60 Puts (APA-WL) at this time (order from 10:03:42).

APA $66.66 -3.55% ... seeing some signs of bullish complacency among energy bulls and it may take some substantially lower prices to get rid of it.

Linda Piazza : 10/6/2005 10:35:47 AM

Advdec line is showing some possible weakness with respect to the resistance currently being tested--began turning down again as I type, but not yet at a new LOD.

Jonathan Levinson : 10/6/2005 10:35:33 AM

Natural gas storage report at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 10/6/2005 10:35:00 AM

Session low for crude oil, -1.925 at 60.875, natgas -.585 at 13.60.

Linda Piazza : 10/6/2005 10:34:49 AM

Thanks, Tab, for the update on the natural gas inventories. See Tab's 10:31:58 post. I was reading last night that expectations were for around 41-45, although one pundit was guessing as low as 25, so I guess this could be interpreted as being in line with expectations. Not much action either way as a result.

Linda Piazza : 10/6/2005 10:32:30 AM

BIX is bouncing today, too, probably helping to support the OEX. It's struggling with the 333-ish level, perhaps forming an inverse H&S with a neckline just above it, at about 333.13. The BIX is at 332.69 as I type, moving up toward that neckline.

Tab Gilles : 10/6/2005 10:34:49 AM

EIA: Natural Gas +44 Billion Cubic Feet

Tab Gilles : 10/6/2005 10:29:56 AM

Murphy Oil (MUR) Link

Linda Piazza : 10/6/2005 10:28:50 AM

Advdec line bouncing again up to retest broken support, to see if it holds as resistance. Natural gas inventories expected any moment, so exit now if you want to ahead of inventories.

Jonathan Levinson : 10/6/2005 10:28:36 AM

Looks like a coiled pennant here for QQQQ. S1 is at 38.42, overlapping the 30 min channel bottom: Link

Linda Piazza : 10/6/2005 10:27:53 AM

The TRAN rallied through its 200-sma and 72-ema this morning, but has dropped back below the 72-ema again, leaving a long upper shadow. It does, however, hover just above the 200-sma currently.

Jeff Bailey : 10/6/2005 10:27:30 AM

10:00 Internals found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 10/6/2005 10:24:13 AM

Volume breadth -1.58:1 on the NYSE, -1.62:1 on the Nasdaq.

Linda Piazza : 10/6/2005 10:22:32 AM

GE must be helping to prop up the OEX, because the RLX and advdec line are doing their parts to pressure it lower.

Linda Piazza : 10/6/2005 10:20:15 AM

Advdec line falling through support. Needs to hold below about -400, but preferably below -1100. It's at -1319 as I type, QCharts value.

Jonathan Levinson : 10/6/2005 10:19:11 AM

30 min channel support drops to 38.45 QQQQ: Link

Linda Piazza : 10/6/2005 10:13:45 AM

Jonathan and subscriber D.C. were helpful in determining the time when natural-gas inventories were to be released. See Jonathan's 9:07:10 post. Remember that these inventories are as likely to be market-moving and maybe more so in the current climate than the crude inventories. Make your decision soon as to whether you want to stay in a bearish OEX position into those inventories numbers. The advdec line is acting okay--I'd rather it have dropped even deeper--and the RLX is acting okay, too, although I wish it had reversed more of the first 15-minute climb, but the OEX is still holding to its bear flag formation, and so could still climb into the 556-558 zone. There's no confirmation that this trade is working as hoped yet, and so conservative traders might choose to exit now and take a small loss.

Jonathan Levinson : 10/6/2005 10:12:22 AM

30 min channel support for QQQQ is down to 38.49. Although I might miss the bounce, I'll be patiently waiting for a terminal spike that tests/violates that lower band on which to get long with a tight stop to try and catch the reversal. Bulls could try more aggressive entries from 38.60 support, but it will take a wider stop due to the distance to the lower channel band- and volume breadth is now negative on the Nasdaq, -1.32:1.

Linda Piazza : 10/6/2005 10:09:04 AM

Advdec line dropping back to retest that support again. It's gyrating between resistance from about +600-900 and support from about -1100 to -500. It's at -708 as I type.

Jeff Bailey : 10/6/2005 10:07:47 AM

10:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 10/6/2005 10:07:17 AM

RLX pulling back now, but the advdec line is still moving higher, back for another test of that resistance that held it earlier. OEX Keltner resistance from 556.75-555.37 is still holding on 15-minute closes. A climb after a bearish entry is never comfortable, but that's what stops are for--to allow a little wiggle room for a not-perfect entry, but to take you out if the entry turns out to be wrong-headed entirely.

Jonathan Levinson : 10/6/2005 10:04:48 AM

Volume breadth -1.1:1 on the NYSE, +1.08:1 on the Nasdaq.

Jeff Bailey : 10/6/2005 10:03:42 AM

Swing trade sell naked put alert ... Place an offer to sell two (2) of the Apache Corp. Link APA Nov. $60 Puts (APA-WL) at $1.25.

APA $66.77 -3.39% ...

Linda Piazza : 10/6/2005 10:03:20 AM

The RLX hangs near the day's high, just under the 10-sma. The just-completed 15-minute period created a potential reversal signal, but there's been no reversal this period to complete that signal. Until there is, the OEX isn't likely to fall far.

Jonathan Levinson : 10/6/2005 10:02:24 AM

QQQQ update at this Link with the 30 min channel bottom down to 38.50.

Linda Piazza : 10/6/2005 10:01:42 AM

So far, advdec line resistance holds, but so does support, so it's a draw. So far, OEX massed 15-minute Keltner resistance from 554.73-555.39 still hold, too, but the OEX is still climbing in a likely bear flag into that resistance. It hasn't give up yet.

Linda Piazza : 10/6/2005 9:57:24 AM

Advdec line bouncing tepidly from that support I mentioned, but the OEX is bouncing much more strongly. If you entered a bearish trade this morning as the advdec line dove, adhere to the stops you set, because the OEX could move all the way up to 556-558 if the advdec line doesn't continue to find resistance at this morning's level. Some confusion here this morning.

Jonathan Levinson : 10/6/2005 9:57:08 AM

The overnight repo from the Fed was 7B, for a net add of 2.25B. The stopout rate was 3.77, 2 bps above the 3.75 target rate, showing a rising demand for the repo money.

Jonathan Levinson : 10/6/2005 9:55:59 AM

Our QQQQ 38.58 stop was 4 cents' too tight. I'm going to have to start widening them, but it's very risky when trying to fade trending oscillators such as we have here.

Jonathan Levinson : 10/6/2005 9:52:11 AM

Gold and silver to new session highs at 475.50 and 7.565.

Linda Piazza : 10/6/2005 9:52:04 AM

Advdec line diving sharply while the OEX retreats to test yesterday's late-day low. The OEX needs to keep pushing lower beneath this to benefit bearish traders, of course. The advdec line has just reached potentially strong, strong support and now could attempt another bounce if that support, through about -1100 holds. I'd expect at least a steadying here.

Jonathan Levinson : 10/6/2005 9:50:29 AM

QQQQ - Exit Point Alert -

Stopped out QQQQ at 38.58, -.03

Linda Piazza : 10/6/2005 9:48:27 AM

The advdec line hit that resistance and is holding. There's the potential for a decline in it and the in the OEX. Those who want to risk a new bearish entry could do so here, but need tight stops and rigorous attention to those stops. They need high-delta options to capture a small movement.

Jonathan Levinson : 10/6/2005 9:47:35 AM

QQQQ - Entry Point Alert -

Long QQQQ at 38.61, stop 38.58

Jonathan Levinson : 10/6/2005 9:45:30 AM

30 min channel support drops to 38.60, also price confluence noted yesterday. Link

Jonathan Levinson : 10/6/2005 9:42:54 AM

My screen is lighting up green, but the indices are up only slightly and the prce feels heavy. Those green flashes are confusing me, as the picture still looks uncertain pricewise. Meanwhile, Nasdaq volume breadth has risen to +2.15:1. Certainly not bearish. The premarket highs are being tested here at 39.80 QQQQ.

Linda Piazza : 10/6/2005 9:43:01 AM

As most of you know, my most-used technical tool is nested Keltner channels. Yesterday's steep declines skewed those channels and it will take a while for them to sort themselves out this morning. The advdec line is moving into first reistance now, up to about +1000, and it's resistance that is sometimes important, but I just can't give a weighting this morning on how important it is today. Advdec line at +630 (QCharts value) as I type, and still headed up. We know we don't want to consider a rollover imminent as long as it's still climbing, at least, but it sometimes has a habit of hitting resistance early and then diving during the second 15-minute period. I wouldn't think that would be what it would do today, as I think the OEX probably needs to climb a bit higher--toward 556-558--but no big funds or institutions have called and asked my opinion today.

Jonathan Levinson : 10/6/2005 9:38:09 AM

Volume breadth holds positive, +1.01:1 for the NYSE and +1.95:1 for the Nasdaq.

Linda Piazza : 10/6/2005 9:38:21 AM

Here's the OEX Keltner outlook for now, from the 60-minute chart. It created a breakdown signal on the 15- and 30-minute charts, but ended the day just above the 60-minute support. That support is at 551.87, but it still looks weak. First resistance being tested, at 553.78 on 60-minute closes, with next and perhaps stronger resistance at 556.49-556.69 on 60-minute closes. That would be near the 556.09 level that's a 38.2% retracement of the steep drop this week.

Jeff Bailey : 10/6/2005 9:35:08 AM

Ross Stores (ROST) $25.46 +5.74% ....

Jonathan Levinson : 10/6/2005 9:34:41 AM

Session highs for gold and silver here at 472.60 and 7.522 respectively.

Linda Piazza : 10/6/2005 9:34:17 AM

Thanks, Jonathan, for the information on the inventories today. I missed your update. My MM wasn't updating and I didn't realize it until the open when my post wasn't showing up.

Jonathan Levinson : 10/6/2005 9:32:54 AM

Volume breadth is +1.44:1 for the NYSE, +1.45:1 for the Nasdaq.

Jonathan Levinson : 10/6/2005 9:32:27 AM

Huge bounce for GE at the open, up 1.87% at 33.29 here.

Linda Piazza : 10/6/2005 9:32:20 AM

Small bounce in the OEX. The advdec line opens in the middle of nowhere, not giving any clues, except that it will soon be facing possible resistance in the 500-700 zone. It doesn't look strong enough to be sure whether it will hold or not, though. I don't see a trade setup here. Not yet.

Jeff Bailey : 10/6/2005 9:27:37 AM

Matrix Service (MTRX) $7.88 ... higher at $8.34 after the company said it earned $400,000, or $0.02 a share vs. a loss of $900,000, or $0.05 in the same period last year. Revenue rose to $109 million from $84.9 while gross-profit margin widened to $9.3% from 7.9%.

The company will hold a conference call at 11:00 AM EDT and will be simultaneously broadcast over the Internet at Link or Link . Please allow extra time prior to the call to visit the site and download the streaming media software required to listen to the Internet broadcast. The online archive of the broadcast will be available within one hour of the live call.

Jonathan Levinson : 10/6/2005 9:16:41 AM

QQQQ is back to a 1 cent loss at 38.74, after trading as high as 38.81. With the short cycle, 30 min cycle and 60 min cycle all at or near maxxed out/oversold levels, the chances of an intraday bounce are very high. But because these indicators have been trending and whipsawing, it's more difficult than usual to separate the signals from the noise. 30 min channel support is down to 38.67. Any bounce will need to clear the 72 SMA at 38.92 to stall the ongoing 30 min channel decline.

Jeff Bailey : 10/6/2005 9:14:14 AM

Program Trading Levels for Thursday ... HL Camp & Company has their computers set for program buying at $+6.62 and set for program selling at $+3.60.

Jonathan Levinson : 10/6/2005 9:07:10 AM

Here, Linda:

The Energy Information Administration (EIA) provides weekly estimates of working gas volumes held in underground storage facilities at the national and regional levels. Weekly estimates of working gas in storage were first provided by the American Gas Association (AGA) in 1994. In October 2001, the AGA announced that it would discontinue its survey due to resource considerations. AGA's last report appeared May 1, 2002, containing data for the report week ending April 26, 2002. The EIA first released its estimates of underground storage for the week ending May 3, 2002, on May 9, 2002, in the Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report (WNGSR). The WNGSR is posted on the EIA web site on the internet at Link between 10:30 and 10:40 a.m. each Thursday, except for certain weeks that include Federal holidays.


Jonathan Levinson : 10/6/2005 8:59:56 AM

Linda, I don't. My guess would be 10:30, same as the petrol report, but it's only a guess. I'll see what I can dig up.

Jonathan Levinson : 10/6/2005 8:59:24 AM

The Fed has announced a 9B 14-day repo, for no net change against the 9B expiring in that timeframe. There remains the 4.75B overnight to address at the 10AM announcement. The stopout rate on the repo was 3.71, 4 bps below the 3.75 target rate.

Linda Piazza : 10/6/2005 8:57:34 AM

Jonathan, do you know when the DOE updates on the natural gas inventories today? I couldn't find a time when I was doing research earlier.

Linda Piazza : 10/6/2005 8:55:20 AM

As expected, the ECB left interest rates unchanged. European and U.K. bourses have moderated their losses since my Asia/Europe report this morning, although the FTSE 100 is still down 0.94%; the CAC 40, 1.19% and the DAX, 1.05%.

Linda Piazza : 10/6/2005 8:51:53 AM

The OEX ended the day yesterday about a point below the 7/07 low. That's not good. It confirmed a H&S formation within its broadening formation. That's not good, either, at least not if your portfolio is heavily long. It did, however, end on potential 551.79 Keltner support. There were breakdowns all day each time the OEX tried to rise, with no relenting until the bell rang. That usually suggests some follow-through the next morning. A fitted Fib bracket suggests to me that 548 is possible, but futures are higher as I type, suggesting that a bounce might get in the way of that supposition about lower prices this morning. The Keltner support may hold.

The drops have been so relentless, and the decliners so swamped the advancers yesterday that I'm wondering if it's not time for a doji day or for some type of consolidation that digests some of the steep declines. Usually technical indicators will be more contradictory of each other when such a day is setting up than they are now, but there are those competing inverse and regular H&S's on the Nasdaq's daily chart, at least. That's contradictory evidence at its best.

On the OEX, nothing yet gives me information that it's time for such a day except that we've had such steep declines already this week. So, I'm wondering about the possibility of a climb up toward 556-558 and a rollover from there, down toward 548 and then maybe a bounce, with that action perhaps not to occur all in one day. If the OEX instead opens near the flat-line level and immediately heads lower, something that doesn't seem the most likely outcome from this vantage point, at least, then I'd be particularly watch of a bounce from that 548.20-ish zone. I'll need to get a look at the advdec line's opening values and immediate action before I have much of an idea about today's likely action, as Keltner lines and other evidence are skewed by yesterday's steep declines. This is one day when charts are just not giving enough evidence to reach a firm conclusion pre-market.

Jonathan Levinson : 10/6/2005 8:39:01 AM

Session low for crude oil here, -.05 at 61.85. Natural gas is down .19 at 13.995.

Jane Fox : 10/6/2005 8:33:26 AM

Dateline WSJ Hundreds of thousands of businesses and individuals displaced by Hurricane Katrina face possible financial disaster as money to pay workers dries up, banks get tougher on borrowers who were allowed to skip payments immediately after the storm and bureaucratic snafus slow the flow of cash and loans to victims.

The rising financial peril represents a second crisis for those forced to abandon their homes and businesses when Katrina barreled into Louisiana and Mississippi in late August. While cleanup and repair efforts are accelerating in devastated areas, prompting officials in New Orleans and elsewhere to urge some evacuees to return home, the financial hardships caused by the storm are expected to get much worse.

Unemployment payments in Louisiana more than quadrupled to $87.7 million last month, compared with a year earlier, according to the state's labor department. More than 183,000 workers filed for unemployment benefits during the week ended Sept. 24, up from about 29,000 the week before Katrina hit. State officials are bracing for another surge as companies that kept workers on the payroll after the storm decide they can't afford to keep paying.

Jonathan Levinson : 10/6/2005 8:32:20 AM

Ten year notes hold their gains, TNX -1.7 bps to 4.344%, IRX -2 bps to 3.47%.

Jonathan Levinson : 10/6/2005 8:31:43 AM


8:30am 10/06/05 U.S. WEEKLY JOBLESS CLAIMS UP 21,000 TO 390,000

8:30am 10/06/05 U.S. 4-WEEK AVG. JOBLESS CLAIMS UP 15,750 TO 404,500

8:30am 10/06/05 U.S. CONTINUING JOBLESS CLAIMS UP 118,000 TO 2.91 MLN

Jonathan Levinson : 10/6/2005 8:31:18 AM

Awaiting the headlines.

Jonathan Levinson : 10/6/2005 8:31:04 AM

Initial claims 390K vs. 350K. Prior 369K up from 356K initially reported.

Jonathan Levinson : 10/6/2005 8:30:29 AM

Session highs for gold and silver.

Jonathan Levinson : 10/6/2005 8:21:31 AM

Equities have gone green as we await the 8:30 initial claims report, as have bonds, TNX -.8 bps at 4.353% and QQQQ now +.01 at 38.77.

Jonathan Levinson : 10/6/2005 7:44:48 AM

Equities are down, ES trading 1200.25, NQ 1579.5, YM 10344 and QQQQ -.06 at 38.70. Gold is up 20 cents at 469.60, silver -.009 at 7.471, ten year notes +5/32 at 109 53/64, crude oil -.625 at 62.175 and natgas -.085 at 14.10.

We await the 8:30 release of initial claims, est. 350K, prior 356K.

Linda Piazza : 10/6/2005 7:16:02 AM

The Bank of England maintains its 4.5% repo rate, as expected. The FTSE 100 has not yet reacted strongly, either direction.

Linda Piazza : 10/6/2005 7:09:19 AM

Good morning. Bourses are lower across the globe, with the Nikkei posting a 2.41% loss and European bourses having dropped heavily ahead of Bank of England and ECB rate-hike decisions. No hikes are expected. As of 6:57 EST, gold was down $0.40, to $468.90, and crude, down $0.76, to $62.03. Our futures were near the flat-line level at that time. More details about Asian and European markets follows in succeeding paragraphs.

Last night, the Nikkei plummeted more than 250 points in the first hour of trading, on its way to a 330.38-point or 2.41% loss. It closed at 13,359.51. Although many Japanese economists feel that the Japanese economy is in a different stage than the U.S.'s, at the cusp of a recovery from a long deflationary period, it's seen strong gains not yet tested with significant pullbacks, and many weak hands might exist at current inflated levels. Exporters declined, with Nintendo Co. having a reason beyond the general weakness of exporters for declining. CSFB downgraded the company's rating to an underperform one. One exporter, Fuji Heavy, saw early gains after GS upgraded it to an in-line rating, with GM set to sell its position in Fuji Heavy and Toyota agreeing to buy a hefty portion of the shares being sold. Energy-related issues fell sharply, too, as they had in the U.S.

Other Asian markets fell, too. The Taiwan Weighted dropped 0.64%, and South Korea's Kospi fell 2.03%. Singapore's Straits Times lost 1.57%, and Hong Kong's Hang Seng dropped 2.12%. China's Shanghai Composite remains closed for Chinese holidays.

European markets drop heavily again today, with automakers, oil majors, and materials-related issues such as BHP Billiton leading decliners. September's Bloomberg retail PMI for the EU12 countries fell to 49.7 from August's 51.7, but still maintained a 50.8 average in the third quarter. Germany's and France's numbers led to the decline, while Italy's rose. August's retail sales had seen a strong increase, so a pullback might not be unexpected, but those hoping for an increase in consumer demand were likely disappointed by the result. An interesting report notes that the EU monetary affairs commissioner claims that European governments are taking steps to hide the depth of their budget deficits, including hiring private-sector banks to help them disguise the depth. Reportedly the commissioner has assigned more staff to the task of discovering the methods being used to disguise those budget deficits. The EU Commission released its quarterly assessment of the economy this morning. It expects an increase in GDP growth to 0.4% quarter over quarter in the third quarter and 0.6% in the fourth quarter, but the full-year forecast of 1.2% was lower than in the previous quarterly update. It believes that business confidence is being boosted by accommodative interest rates and by a firming dollar against the euro. It pegs oil prices and global imbalances as risks, saying that the U.S. and Asian imbalances are the main problems, with the EU's roughly in order. Sounds as if the EU commission should be talking a bit more to the EU monetary affairs commissioner, doesn't it?

The Bank of England announces its rate-hike decision imminently with an ECB decision expected later, and the Bank of England has had two economic releases to digest this morning when making a decision. September's housing prices, as measured by the Halifax HPI, rose 1.2% month over month, with a three-month year-over-year rate now rising to 3%. This number is higher than some other surveys on housing prices, although Halifax noted that it doesn't expect a sustained acceleration in prices because it believes that slowing economic growth will lessen housing demand. The ONS industrial production figure fell 0.9% month over month in August, with a year-over-year decline now at 1.9%. Manufacturing output fell 0.2% month over month, and was 0.1% year over year, down from the previous 0.2% growth. Mining and quarrying were deemed responsible for the weak number.

Stock-specific news included speculation that the London Stock Exchange will be the subject of yet-another takeover bid, this one from Australia's Macquarie and software firm Computershare. Irish independent newspaper Eircom soared in early trading after reporting that it might receive a bid for the company from Swisscom with Portugal Telecom also perhaps still considering a takeover of the company. U.K. bus and train operator National Express announced potential merger talks with a privately owned Spanish transport group, Alsa, with National Express dipping after that disclosure. Insurer Swiss Life disappointed investors when an update did not include plans to sell its Banca del Gottardo unit, and it fell. German financial planning group AWD Holdings also disappointed investors when it revealed third-quarter revenue and warned that it won't meet its 2005 expectations. It had fallen more than 12% at one point this morning.

As of 6:57 EST, the FTSE 100 was lower by 64.90 points or 1.20%, at 5,362.90. The CAC 40 was lower by 63.96 points or 1.39%, at 4,530.15. The DAX was lower by 79.67 points or 1.57%, at 4,989.75.

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