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OI Technical Staff : 10/10/2005 9:59:59 PM

The Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

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Jeff Bailey : 10/10/2005 5:39:02 PM

Qualcomm (QCOM) $43.68 -0.54% ... DJ - Declares quarterly cash dividend of $0.09 per common share, payable on January 4, 2006 to stockholders of record at the close of business on December 7,2005.

Jeff Bailey : 10/10/2005 5:06:51 PM

Bird Flu ... DJ - Colombian authorities said Monday they had detected the first suspected cases of bird flu in this South American country, but said the strain was not harmful to humans.

Avian influenza was discovered in chickens at three farms in Tolima state in western Colombia, and the affected flocks were immediately quarantined to prevent the spread of the disease, the Agriculture Ministry said in a statement.

There was no sign, however, of the H5N1 strain of bird flu that experts fear could mutate to become a dangerous human virus, the ministry said.

"It's not the type of virus that has the world worried. It is not the type of virus that has sickened people in Asia," Agriculture Minister Andres Felipe Arias told reporters. Chickens across the country will be checked for the virus, Arias said.

H5N1 has swept through poultry populations in Asia since 2003, bringing the death of more than 100 million birds. It has also infected 116 people, and killing 60, mostly poultry workers.

Jeff Bailey : 10/10/2005 5:01:21 PM

Biotech HOLDRs (BBH) $184.30 +0.11% .... $186.53 here.

Jeff Bailey : 10/10/2005 5:00:42 PM

Genentech (DNA) $82.00 +1.04% ... released for trade at $85.00 here.

Jeff Bailey : 10/10/2005 4:46:48 PM

Closing U.S. Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 10/10/2005 4:44:03 PM

Closing Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 10/10/2005 4:36:43 PM

Biotech HOLDRs (BBH) went out at $184.30 +0.11% ... trading $186.00 here.

Jeff Bailey : 10/10/2005 4:35:29 PM

Genentech (DNA) $81.50 +0.43% ... halted (earnings).

GAAP net income $359.4 million vs. $230.9 million year ago.

Non-GAAP $383.8 million vs. $259.6 million.

Non-GAAP EPS $0.35 vs. $0.24

Q3 Sales surged 44% to $1.451 billion from $1.006 billion.

Jeff Bailey : 10/10/2005 4:06:02 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 10/10/2005 4:04:50 PM

Sell Program Premium ... DIA $102.35, SPY $118.60

Linda Piazza : 10/10/2005 4:02:44 PM

Note: I was looking at the OEX's 30-minute and not 15-minute chart in my 3:59:16 post. I don't want to change the notations to "on 30-minute closes" because that would change the time stamp on the post.

Linda Piazza : 10/10/2005 3:59:16 PM

OEX Keltner picture going into the close: The OEX has support at 549.23-549.37, but that support still turns lower. First resistance at 551.25 has been stopping the OEX on 15-minute closes over the last hour. Next resistance above that at 553.14-553.60 on 15-minute closes, but I'd certainly keep those five-minute 100/130-ema's at 551.67 and 551.94 on my radar screen. No resolution yet, although the OEX is certainly trying to put in a higher bottom. Note to scalpers: the OEX has not dipped below 550 since my post about that, and I wouldn't enter right at the close, of course, for a scalping play.

Jonathan Levinson : 10/10/2005 3:46:43 PM

QQQQ's 30 and 60 min cycles have resolved their funk to the downside, but there's still no clear trend emerging in those timeframes. If the current chop off Thursday's lows is a bear flag, then we should see a retest of those lows soon, and today's high should not be revisisted or broken. The daily cycle continues to point south after failing at a lower oscillator high, confirming the bearish weekly cycle.

Jeff Bailey : 10/10/2005 3:43:48 PM

Yahoo! Inc. (YHOO) $34.64 +1.40% ... DJ - Yahoo! launches its Podcast service, allowing users to download a variety of audio content, including shows from National Public Radio and independently published programs, comes as Internet portal gears up for battle with Apple (AAPL) $50.44 -1.67% .

Jeff Bailey : 10/10/2005 3:41:15 PM

Oracle Corp. (ORCL) $12.03 +0.41% ... Chairman Jeff Henley saying he sees a "chance" for the company's middleware business to generate about $1 billion in revenue this fiscal year.

Linda Piazza : 10/10/2005 3:38:25 PM

If you're an aggressive OEX scalper, it looks as if a long scalp might be worth a try on punches below 550, if any more occur. I wouldn't try it if the OEX just barreled through 550, and I'd plan to take profit on tests of 552, if it got that high, so you'd need a high-delta option. I don't know that there will be any further tests of the sub-550 zone, though, as the OEX began bouncing strongly as I prepared this post, and I wouldn't want to get in on a play as the OEX approached 551, when the plan was to exit at 552. This is for aggressive traders only, and I think I was too late with this post anyway.

Jeff Bailey : 10/10/2005 3:34:05 PM

European governments close borders to poultry imports ... DJ - With avian influenza reaching Turkey and perhaps Romania, European governments are closing their borders to poultry imports from these countries and checking their vaccine stocks. US HHS Secretary Leavitt warns of future flu pandemic.

Linda Piazza : 10/10/2005 3:33:38 PM

I wasn't sure that the advdec line would dip all the way to the -2800 to -2900 level, but it's certainly coming close. It's at -2674 as I type. No sign of a bounce from the support below. On waterfall days, the advdec line does break through this support, but it's important.

Jeff Bailey : 10/10/2005 3:31:20 PM

Columbia Auto Sales ... DJ - January to September auto sales up 28% from year ago period.

Jeff Bailey : 10/10/2005 3:30:24 PM

Israel claims to have broken up 3 Hamas terrorist cells.

Jonathan Levinson : 10/10/2005 3:29:28 PM

QQQQ update at this Link with price chopping along above the lows as the 30 min channel declines to its morning low just below 38.00. The short cycle indicators are on a new buy singal, but so far it's a very heavy bounce. First sign of trouble for bears will be a break above the 72 SMA at 38.26.

Linda Piazza : 10/10/2005 3:28:44 PM

I haven't seen any signals clear enough that I wanted to drag subscribers into a play today. Either the OEX set up right or the advdec did, but neither was in synch with the other. The OEX appeared to be leading the advdec line all day, something that doesn't usually happen, at least to that degree. The advdec line is vulnerable to a further drop, but as I said earlier, I'm not so sure it will drop all the way to that -2800 to -2900 level, and I think there's the possibility for a bounce at any time. There's continued bullish divergence setting up on several charts, in several ways. At the same time, the OEX still has not been able to close a 15-minute period above the Keltner line currently at 551.10. I just wouldn't be surprised to see a bounce attempt get started at any time, perhaps after another downdraft and perhaps not, but I'm not so sure yet that it will get much past 552.20-552.40, if it does begin. By then, if such a bounce should occur, the advdec line should be approaching next resistance. Above that, the OEX's next resistance is just under 555.

Linda Piazza : 10/10/2005 3:14:38 PM

Advdec line headed down toward -2800 to -2900 next support. It's at -2570 as I type. This next level should be strong support for the advdec line.

Jeff Bailey : 10/10/2005 3:11:32 PM

03:00 Internals found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 10/10/2005 3:05:29 PM

Stepping away for 15 minutes.

Linda Piazza : 10/10/2005 3:05:56 PM

Advdec line still trying to steady. The OEX's chart and the advdec's give me different pictures. The OEX's suggests that a test of the 552.19-552.40 zone isn't ruled out, although the OEX has next resistance at 551.18 on 15-minute closes. The advdec line still shows perhaps massive resistance near -1950 up to -1800. There's potential bullish value/RSI divergence on the 15-minute advdec line chart, though, warning that the advdec line might not meet its downside target and could break above that resistance. Sure wish that resistance didn't look so strong, but it does.

Jeff Bailey : 10/10/2005 3:02:45 PM

03:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 10/10/2005 2:58:08 PM

Well, the OEX certainly did maintain that Keltner-style bullish divergence, didn't it! The advdec line is bouncing, but not strongly enough just yet. It's going to run into resistance again from -2080 to -1800, with the advdec line now at -2213 as I type. The OEX has been leading the way today, hasn't it, but without the cooperation of the advdec line, you just can't trust it. I suspect though, that the current 549.44 Keltner support may hold on 15-minute closes even if the OEX does pull back again. Just a guess.

Jonathan Levinson : 10/10/2005 2:55:45 PM

Volume breadth -3.72:1 on the NYSE, -1.76:1 on the Nasdaq.

Linda Piazza : 10/10/2005 2:52:21 PM

And the advdec line tells the tale. No bounce there, but remember that it's now getting closer to potential support again, in the -2900 zone. It's at -2401 as I type.

The OEX tests Keltner support at 549.51 on 15-minute closes, with the OEX at 549.65 as I type. If that Keltner-style bullish divergence is to continue, the OEX won't go much lower than this. There's no given that it will continue, but this is a measure we can watch.

Linda Piazza : 10/10/2005 2:47:21 PM

Back. The advdec line still hasn't been able to bounce, but the OEX is still trying to steady at Keltner and historical support near 550. Wish these two would get in concert, because I've missed suggesting some good plays today. As the advdec line is set up now, though, it's vulnerable to a deeper downdraft, to -2900 . . . and the OEX dropped down a notch while I was typing. I'm not strongly convinced that the advdec line will get all the way down to -2900 today, though. Still watching.

Jeff Bailey : 10/10/2005 2:42:06 PM

Delphi (DPH) $0.38 -66.07% ... 82.2 million shares change hands in last 10 minutes.

Jeff Bailey : 10/10/2005 2:40:02 PM

Delphi (DPH) $0.40 -64% ... CEO saying discussions with UAW will continue.

Company likely to switch to defined contribution.

Company simply ran out of time for out-of-court plan.

Will deal with healthcare costs.

Absolutely determined not to let company collapse.

No decision yet to terminate pension plans.

Chapter 11 won't adversely impact customers.

Chapter 11 will be well-organized, well-planned.

General Motors (GM) may turn out to be biggest creditor.

Jonathan Levinson : 10/10/2005 2:38:34 PM

QQQQ - Stop Loss Adjustment Alert -

QQQQ short from 38.46, move stop to 38.40

Jonathan Levinson : 10/10/2005 2:35:41 PM

The intraday cycles are still mostly directionless, but the short cycle is in oversold territory. Day traders should be exiting now, if they didn't on the run to QQQQ 38.10, while swing traders will continue to eye the rolling daily cycle and the bear-flaggish action off Thursday's low.

Jeff Bailey : 10/10/2005 2:35:22 PM

General Motors (GM) $26.19 -7.42% ... Saying Delphi (DPH) liabilities could exceed $10 billion.

Linda Piazza : 10/10/2005 2:35:13 PM

I'm going to have to step away for a few minutes. I see the advdec line trying to bounce again. If it gets back above about -1650, it may help the OEX as it tries to form a bottom here. Still mixed signals. Advdec line dipped to low to give a good long signal, etc.

Jeff Bailey : 10/10/2005 2:30:48 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 10/10/2005 2:29:14 PM

Only adept scalpers should be in this market today. I've not seen clear signals today. We're getting the obligatory bounce from today's equal-bottom level now, but the advdec line hasn't begun bouncing along with it. Not yet, anyway.

Jonathan Levinson : 10/10/2005 2:27:04 PM

QQQQ tests lower 30/60 min channel support again, again with no sign of oversold readings from the cycle oscillators in those timeframes. Link

Linda Piazza : 10/10/2005 2:26:16 PM

Next OEX support at 549.67 on 15-minute closes, and at 548.29 below that. There's potential Keltner-style bullish divergence here. If it's to be maintained, the OEX shouldn't breach that 549.67 level.

Jeff Bailey : 10/10/2005 2:24:04 PM

Sell Program Premium ... DIA $102.58, SPX 1,187.94, QQQQ $38.15

Linda Piazza : 10/10/2005 2:23:49 PM

Advdec line breaking below -2000, but doing it after the OEX had already broken sharply lower, as I feared.

Linda Piazza : 10/10/2005 2:22:26 PM

Advdec line testing that support a little earlier than I thought, at about -1900 to -1950. It's at -1916 as I type.

Jeff Bailey : 10/10/2005 2:22:01 PM

02:10 Internals found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 10/10/2005 2:17:11 PM

The OEX tests the ascending trendline off the day's low. I'm disappointed that the advdec line support sits just below the current advec line level, as it sure looks as if an OEX breakdown here would suggest at least a test of 550.30 if not something deeper. It's again looking vulnerable to Keltner support now at 549.89 and perhaps even at 548.47, although that might be tougher. The signal is just not clear, however, unless the advdec line drops below -2000 and that might not happen until after the OEX begins dropping, being that it already has begun dropping. There's just too much potential for the advdec line to find support here.

Jeff Bailey : 10/10/2005 2:13:04 PM

02:10 Market Watch found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 10/10/2005 2:11:14 PM

It's hard to believe that we'll see a move of any significance in today's light volume/light participation, but a move below this morning's spike 38.06 QQQQ low could change that. For now, price continues to explore Friday's range after making a lower low and nominally lower high.

Linda Piazza : 10/10/2005 2:09:33 PM

Advdec line dropping closer to that potential support. It's at -1649 with that support band from -1750 to about -2000.

Jonathan Levinson : 10/10/2005 2:03:07 PM

Volume breadth -2.43:1 on the NYSE, -1.46:1 on the Nasdaq.

Linda Piazza : 10/10/2005 2:02:28 PM

I lost a post, but the sense of it was the the advdec line has dropped now to test support building from -1750 to -2000, with the advdec line now at -1550. This support is what now clouds the picture. I had thought earlier that the advdec line could climb into the resistance that it's been testing and that it looked strong enough to hold the advdec line, and it has, so far, but now this support has built. Bears, watch this level, down to about -2000, for bounce potential. A breakdown through it would be significant and lead to a likely retest of today's low if not last week's.

Jonathan Levinson : 10/10/2005 1:52:43 PM

QQQQ loses 72 SMA support on the break below 38.29: Link

Linda Piazza : 10/10/2005 1:50:56 PM

OEX failing below those five-minute 100/130-ema's, to test midline support on one version of its descending regression channel, at about 552, with the other version having a lower midline at about 551.45. The bottom of the descending regression channel ranges from 550.20-550.85, depending on the version. When looking at the swing lows on the five-minute chart, the lower values look more valid, but when looking at the swing highs, the higher ones do. In any case, bulls did not want to see the OEX pull back inside this channel at all, no matter which version.

Linda Piazza : 10/10/2005 1:46:50 PM

The OEX is back at those same-old five-minute 100/130-ema's. On a Keltner basis, it's squeezed tightly between resistance at 552.58 on a 15-minute closing basis and support at 552.40 on a 15-minute closing basis, ready to burst one direction or the other. The advdec line still shows the possibility of rising a bit further into that resistance band, but it's struggling with next resistance a bit.

Jonathan Levinson : 10/10/2005 1:36:16 PM

The wavelet cycle for QQQQ is looking for a bottom after reaching the mid-38.30s, and while the short cycle oscillators are starting to roll, direction is still up for grabs here. Link

Jonathan Levinson : 10/10/2005 1:34:53 PM

QQQQ - Stop Loss Adjustment Alert -

QQQQ short from 38.46, move stop to 38.45

Jonathan Levinson : 10/10/2005 1:32:04 PM

Volume breadth -2.07:1 for the NYSE, -1.07:1 for the Nasdaq here.

Linda Piazza : 10/10/2005 1:30:30 PM

Wow, Jeff. We're just glad it's finally in the 60-70's here, and that might be temporary. It's supposed to be mid-80's again by the middle of the week.

Linda Piazza : 10/10/2005 1:26:05 PM

The OEX is back inside that descending regression channel off Friday's high (I've got two versions, but it's back inside both) and back testing the five-minute 100/130-ema's, but it's not below them yet. No clear signals yet although it still looks slightly more likely that the advdec line will turn down from its test of resistance and carry the OEX lower with it. The problem is that advdec line support has been firming while the advdec line climbed.

Jeff Bailey : 10/10/2005 1:23:11 PM

Vail Resorts (MTN) $30.25 +0.53% Link ... nearing its PnF chart's bullish vertical count of $31.00.

Marc Eckelberry : 10/10/2005 1:20:08 PM

I plan on buying some INTC 22.50 January calls on an NDX drop to 200 dma and July gap close at 1533/1535, so mark that in your alarms if you are interested. There is lots of put activity in INTC and I view that as bullish. INTC has fib support at 23.15 and July low just under 22 if we get so lucky.

Jeff Bailey : 10/10/2005 1:17:14 PM

I've been experiencing intermittent power outages this morning as a heavy wet winter's snow covers the South Denver, CO metro area.

Parts of the South Denver area have been without power for several hours.

Jonathan Levinson : 10/10/2005 1:16:52 PM

QQQQ's short cycle continues to drift, looking ripe for a rollover but not yet overbought. By rushing the entry I managed to get into a position, but I also increased the risk of a stop run lest the cycle should actually play itself out to a full run- something it hasn't been doing since Friday morning. Link

Jeff Bailey : 10/10/2005 1:12:30 PM

01:00 Internals found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 10/10/2005 1:12:04 PM

I just don't see anything definitive here one way or the other. The OEX broke higher and the advdec line climbed, too, but only further into resistance. Support is trying to firm below the advdec line, though, while the OEX now drifts back to retest the resistance it broke through. I think the advdec line could possibly still climb toward about -450, but that's not a particular sign of strength as it just climbs back to retest the central resistance line. It's certainly been possible to profit today, but hindsight is pretty clear while signals looking forward haven't been.

Linda Piazza : 10/10/2005 1:07:46 PM

The advdec line is still testing resistance, rising higher into the resistance band, while the OEX drops back to retest the five-minute 100/130-ema's and the top of the descending regression channel off Friday's high. Those five-minute 100/130-ema's are at 552.26 and 552.51. Bulls don't want the OEX back below those averages or back inside that channel as that suggests a fake-out move that could soon seen a plunge back through the channel and a test of the bottom support, now just above 550. The OEX is at 552.76 as I type.

Jeff Bailey : 10/10/2005 1:05:28 PM

01:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 10/10/2005 12:58:02 PM

Volume breadth -184:1 on the NYSE, +1.07:1 on the Nasdaq.

Linda Piazza : 10/10/2005 12:56:06 PM

The advdec line surged, too, up further into its resistance band that extends up to about -450 now. It hasn't broken through that resistance band, but rather just keeps testing it.

Meanwhile, the OEX did produce a slightly higher high--so no bearish price/RSI divergence on that high--but it's now pulling back. Bulls do not want it back inside that descending regression channel or below those five-minute 100/130-ema's at 552.22 and 552.50. That presents the possibility of this being just a stop-running move, more than possible on a day like today. So far, the OEX is at 553.19, not pulling back all that far.

Jonathan Levinson : 10/10/2005 12:54:41 PM

Here's the setup for the QQQQ short: Link

Jonathan Levinson : 10/10/2005 12:53:36 PM

QQQQ - Entry Point Alert -

Short QQQQ at 38.46 stop 38.52

Linda Piazza : 10/10/2005 12:52:20 PM

The OEX is now testing the top of that descending regression channel off Friday's high, the one I just mentioned in my last post. It has not closed a five-minute period above it, but has surged strongly above it, perhaps up to test the day's high of 553.59. It's at 553.22 as I type, and unless it manages a higher high, it's produced bearish price/RSI divergence on that five-minute chart.

Jeff Bailey : 10/10/2005 12:51:28 PM

Bearish day trade cancel order alert ... for Taser Intl. (TASR) $5.74 +5.90% ... at this time. (see 11:52:29 AM EDT)

Linda Piazza : 10/10/2005 12:48:54 PM

Interminable testing of resistance going on, both on the OEX and on the advdec line. The advdec line's resistance had looked rock-solid earlier and still looks stronger than nearby support, but the test continues and there's no further retreat. The OEX's five-minute 100/130-ema's have served as obvious resistance on five-minute closes since Friday's first jump higher was retraced, but the OEX keeps retesting them. The OEX is maintaining a descending regression channel that formed off Friday's high, with an upper boundary now at 552.75 on five-minute closes and a lower boundary now at 550.30 on five-minute closes. Since today's low, it's just been climbing in a choppy fashion up toward the top of that channel. It hasn't yet broken out to the upside.

Jeff Bailey : 10/10/2005 12:48:08 PM

Antigenics (AGEN) $5.76 +14.97% Link ... Higher after company said preliminary analysis of Phase III study for its melanoma drug Oncophage showed improvement in average survival in patients with metastatic melanoma who used the treatment.

Jonathan Levinson : 10/10/2005 12:41:37 PM

QQQQ update at this Link with the current wavelet downphase so far getting almost no price traction. While the short cycle indicators (top oscillator pane) look ready for their next rollover, a strong wavelet (2nd oscillator pane) bounce could present a stronger attempt on 38.36 resistance. Still a choppy and directionless mess.

Tab Gilles : 10/10/2005 12:35:57 PM

Semi Conductor Holders Trust (SMH) Intel makes up around 20% of this trust. Link Link Link Link

Linda Piazza : 10/10/2005 12:31:29 PM

That little inverse H&S on the OEX's one-minute chart did confirm and did meet its upside target, so bulls had enough strength to accomplish that much. Now there's a potential regular H&S on the OEX's one-minute chart, with the OEX now rising into a potential right shoulder, with a value up to about 552.20 and with the OEX at 552.04 as I type. Watching to see if that one confirms by a move below 551.80.

Jeff Bailey : 10/10/2005 12:30:48 PM

Unisys (UIS) $6.38 -6.58% Link ... IT service provider warned that revenues would be below year-ago levels. Company now expects a loss of $0.16-$0.18 a share on revenue of $1.37 billion to $1.39 billion.

Jeff Bailey : 10/10/2005 12:26:15 PM

General Motors (GM) $26.97 -4.66% Link ... Notably weak after Bank of America cut its rating on the stock to "sell," saying Delphi's (DPH) Chapter 11 bankruptcy filing will raise GM's retirement liabilities by at least $6.00 per share. As a result, BofA raises GM bankruptcy possibility to 30% from 10%.

Linda Piazza : 10/10/2005 12:28:01 PM

The OEX is rising into the five-minute 100/130-ema's again, with those at 552.21 and 552.51, respectively, and with the advdec line still testing first strong resistance. The OEX is looking relatively stronger than is the advdec line, so either the big caps are going to help lead the markets higher, or this move higher in the OEX isn't supported by what's being seen on the advdec line. It's just not breaking through and maintains a bear-flag-like look so far. No signals so far. I'd still have to give slightly more weight to a potential OEX retest of support due to what I'm seeing on the advdec line, but if it should break strongly higher, that would change.

Jeff Bailey : 10/10/2005 12:15:23 PM

12:00 Internals found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 10/10/2005 12:13:28 PM

QQQQ 4-day 3-min chart updated at this Link with price trading both sides of the 72 SMA as it holds a bounce from a higher low starting to stall at a lower high. The wavelet bounce is nearly done, and we'll get to see if the short cycle rollover was for real. Bears need a lower high below 38.36.

Linda Piazza : 10/10/2005 12:12:17 PM

The OEX is back testing the five-minute 100/130-ema's, at 552.22 and 552.53.

Linda Piazza : 10/10/2005 12:10:21 PM

Advdec and OEX both rising into resistance.

Jonathan Levinson : 10/10/2005 12:08:18 PM

Volume breadth -2.36:1 on the NYSE, -1.41:1 on the Nasdaq.

Jeff Bailey : 10/10/2005 12:05:05 PM

12:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 10/10/2005 12:04:13 PM

Crude oil has held its 60.775 low, currently up to a .725 loss at 61.125. Natgas is up to a .415 loss at 12.81, off its 12.70 low.

Linda Piazza : 10/10/2005 12:02:53 PM

The OEX closed the last 15-minute period below the Keltner line currently at 551.59, a line that it's immediately rising to retest. Fifteen-minute closes beneath this level indicate a potential retest of lower support, but those channels are lining up now in such a way that nearest resistance and support are looking about equally weighted and the advdec line refuses to drop through support.

Linda Piazza : 10/10/2005 11:57:41 AM

For lack of anything else to report, there's a little inverse H&S on the OEX's one-minute chart, with an upside target of about 552, if confirmed by a move above about 551.40, currently. The OEX is at 551.21 as I type. I obviously don't put a lot of stock in a formation on a one-minute chart, but it at least shows up something about market psychology right now, and whether those bulls that are trying to buy these dips can carry through on their intentions.

Jeff Bailey : 10/10/2005 11:52:29 AM

Bearish day trade short alert ... for Taser Intl. (TASR) $5.70 +5.16% ... on a bounce back to $5.79. Stop $5.87, target $5.51.

Linda Piazza : 10/10/2005 11:50:22 AM

The advdec line is clinging to the support of today's bear-flag-like climb and to last support before a drop into the -2300-ish support level. There's danger to both OEX bulls and bears here. There's evidence of attempted dip-buying, dangerous to bears, but the advdec line's support just won't quite give way, and that's dangerous to bears.

Jonathan Levinson : 10/10/2005 11:49:45 AM

QQQQ update at this Link , with the short cycle on the verge of a new sell signal (without reaching overbought) as the wavelet cycle tries to bottom. My earlier prognosis of "chop" is unfortunately playing out so far.

Tab Gilles : 10/10/2005 11:46:40 AM

Volatility Index- Nasdaq($VXN) On Friday, I posted this chart Link Looking for the $VXN to rise, targeting the 65 weekly -ema.

Here's today's intraday $VXN. Link

Linda Piazza : 10/10/2005 11:43:55 AM

As long as this 15-minute OEX close remains below a Keltner line currently at 551.78, in question now, the OEX is vulnerable to 550.39 next support, and then likely to support at 549.71. Bulls don't want to let it stay down, thought, as it keeps springing up every time ti declines. The advdec line did not yet break down out of its bear-flag-like climb, although resistance did hold. Still mixed signals everywhere, but the OEX did break down out of that bear flag, as I thought it might do, a thought expressed in my 10:48 post.

Jonathan Levinson : 10/10/2005 11:39:56 AM

The only trade that has presented itself since Friday morning would have been a long at 38.10 QQQQ, when the lower 30 and 60 min channel supports were violated. But even there, none of the intraday cycles were anywher near oversold. The light volume makes it worse, but the problem since Thursday's close has been that none of the intraday timeframes are cycling, all stalling and reversing prematurely.

Jonathan Levinson : 10/10/2005 11:38:05 AM

Crude oil has made a new low at 60.775, currently -1 at 60.85. Natgas is down .505 at 12.72.

Tab Gilles : 10/10/2005 11:36:32 AM

Dell Link

Linda Piazza : 10/10/2005 11:34:46 AM

Advdec line still testing next resistance. The OEX is still within its bear-flag type climbing pattern off today's low, but perhaps headed down to retest the 551.40-ish support as I type . . . oops, broke through it as I type. Bears don't want to see a quick reversal now.

Jeff Bailey : 10/10/2005 11:26:45 AM

Current OPEN MM Profiles found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 10/10/2005 11:18:37 AM

This action is a choppy mess for QQQQ- none of the cycles make it beyond have of their normal range before stalling or reversing.

Linda Piazza : 10/10/2005 11:16:53 AM

The RLX is rising to test its daily 10-sma, at 433.38. The OEX still challenges those five-minute 100/130-ema's, and the advdec line still challenges the bottom of a resistance zone that extends upward to about -350. That zone does not appear as strong as it did earlier, but still stronger than nearby support.

Linda Piazza : 10/10/2005 11:14:52 AM

The TRAN has been testing its 50-sma today, at about 3682.87. (I'm having to use the 390-minute approximation since some daily bars are missing.) The TRAN is at 3682.84 as I type. It's been retesting this average for the last three trading days, chopping between that and the 72-ema at 3654.96 for the most part, but also dropping below the 200-sma at 3632.20 at times. A sustained TRAN move above the 50-sma would likely buoy sentiment.

Jonathan Levinson : 10/10/2005 11:12:29 AM

QQQQ update at this Link with price working on confluence resistance and a wavelet cycle top within the broader short cycle upphase.

Linda Piazza : 10/10/2005 11:12:08 AM

The SPX is not above either the 200-ema or the 200-sma, with this punch higher unable yet to move it out of the consolidation below those averages, at 1196.72 and 1199.89, respectively, with the SPX at 1193.22.

Jeff Bailey : 10/10/2005 11:12:00 AM

11:00 Internals found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 10/10/2005 11:10:49 AM

The advdec line's 15-minute bar is looking much stronger than a tepid bear-flag-like climb, once again confusing the issue, and, incidentally, weakening the overhead resistance. There are no clear signals today, but here the OEX is, retesting those five-minute 100/130-ema's and here the advdec line is, moving into the bottom of that resistance band I've been mentioning, with first resistance overhead at -1190 to -1111, and with the advdec line at -1286.

Linda Piazza : 10/10/2005 11:06:50 AM

OEX climbing more strongly now toward the five-minute 100/130-ema's at 552.41 and 552.74, respectively. OEX at 552.30 as I type. The advdec line is climbing more strongly, too, into that resistance band that I had thought earlier that it might test, but that it had looked too weak to test for a while. That extends up to about -350 or so currently.

Jeff Bailey : 10/10/2005 11:03:27 AM

11:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 10/10/2005 10:59:27 AM

I'm not psychic, so I've changed my 10:58:45 post to read "last week's" low and not "next week's," as it previously read.

Jonathan Levinson : 10/10/2005 10:59:16 AM

The short cycle indicators have turned up, but price has yet to break 72 SMA resistance at 38.27 QQQQ: Link

Linda Piazza : 10/10/2005 10:58:45 AM

As the OEX chugs its way back into a retest of the five-minute 100/130-ema's, at 552.45 and 552.78, the advdec line tries to steady, but remains vulnerable, it appears, to a retest of -2400 to -2900. It's at -1689 (QCharts value) as I type. I thought earlier that the advdec line might rise into the -1100 to -400 resistance band, but it so far hasn't been able to do that, either. Unless these patterns change, it appears that the OEX's bear flag climb is likely to break down and the OEX is likely to retest today's low, if not last week's. This information is for scalpers only, because the evidence once again isn't convincing in either direction, and so I'm once again precluded from issuing any kind of advice to enter a bearish play on a rollover, and there's absolutely no setup by the parameters I watch for a long play yet.

Linda Piazza : 10/10/2005 10:47:57 AM

Advdec line trying to steady now. That resistance overhead isn't quite as strong as it was earlier, but still looks strong enough to turn it back. It's from about -950 to about -400, with the advdec line now at -1557. It keeps halting at the middle of support and resistance today, not giving clear signals either way, but this isn't yet a clear long signal by my parameters, not with that resistance still looking relatively firm overhead. The bear-flag-like look of the OEX's climb isn't particularly convincing, either.

Jonathan Levinson : 10/10/2005 10:47:18 AM

Session low for natgas here, -.395 at 13.83.

Jonathan Levinson : 10/10/2005 10:46:15 AM

QQQQ update at this Link with the short cycle downphase stalling just above oversold territory.

Jonathan Levinson : 10/10/2005 10:40:35 AM

Volume breadth down to -3.05:1 on the NYSE, -1.86:1 on the Nasdaq.

Linda Piazza : 10/10/2005 10:39:31 AM

The OEX can't maintain 15-minute closes above the Keltner line currently at 551.87. Support from 549-550.55, currently being tested. OEX at 550.98 as I type. Advdec line looking vulnerable to about -2400, although a bounce up to -900 to -350 isn't precluded. Until these change, either more chop or continued retests of support are likely.

Jeff Bailey : 10/10/2005 10:37:50 AM

Patterson Dental Co. (PDCO) $40.39 +6.31% Link ... replacing Delphi (DPH) $0.51 -54.46% in the S&P 500

Jonathan Levinson : 10/10/2005 10:34:04 AM

DETROIT, Oct. 8 /PRNewswire/ -- UAW President Ron Gettelfinger and UAW Vice President Richard Shoemaker today issued this statement on the decision by Delphi Corp. to file for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection:

Link

Jeff Bailey : 10/10/2005 10:29:52 AM

10 Most Active ... DPH $0.54 -51.78%, QQQQ $38.17 -0.44%, SPY $119.15 -0.38%, XLNX $23.03 -15.08%, CSCO $17.40 -1.30%, MSFT $24.45 -0.56%, JDSU $2.14 (unch), INTC $23.57 -1.04%, GM $27.00 -4.55%, SIRI $6.50 +1.24%

Linda Piazza : 10/10/2005 10:29:43 AM

It's looking more and more like any advdec line climb into the -800 to -320 region is going to hit strong enough resistance to stall it, if not push it lower again. I just don't see a long signal here yet, although the RSI shows that the downside is getting extreme.

Jonathan Levinson : 10/10/2005 10:26:05 AM

QQQQ's wavelet cycle has turned up, while the short cycle indicators continue to point uncertainly lower, just above oversold territory. The 30 and 60 min indicators have rolled over, suggesting that any bounce should be corrective. It's risky to trade the middle of the cycle channels, as meaningless whipsaws can hammer stops. I expect more downward action from here, but because the short cycle is close to oversold, we could see a bounce back to the 38.30 that would degenerate into more sideways drift as the 30 min cycle works against it. Overall, my guess is for chop, with a downward bias. I am looking to get a short position on any spiky bounce, but I've been waiting since Friday.

Linda Piazza : 10/10/2005 10:24:49 AM

On the OEX first Keltner resistance is at 552.23 on 15-minute closes. Support is trying to build from 549.06-550.70, but it isn't quite as firm as I'd like to see it yet. The OEX may need to dip again and pack that support down a little firmer.

Linda Piazza : 10/10/2005 10:22:39 AM

Advdec line trying to steady now, but there's such strong resistance now up to about -300 or perhaps even a little higher that I'm not sure whether it might not hit that and come back for a retest. I'm chomping at the bit to find a solid play just like everyone else, but all the ducks won't line up in a row just yet. Not sure but whether the OEX might make another dip.

Linda Piazza : 10/10/2005 10:19:08 AM

OEX trying to steady where Keltners suggested they would. The problem now is that resistance is trying to mass above the advdec line now, and it's barely made any attempt to rise. Almost none. Need more evidence there before I can suggest that even aggressive bulls try a countertrend play.

Jeff Bailey : 10/10/2005 10:16:12 AM

10:00 Internals found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 10/10/2005 10:16:08 AM

Volume breadth -2.79:1 on the NYSE, -1.76:1 on the Nasdaq.

Linda Piazza : 10/10/2005 10:12:16 AM

Advdec line still falling. OEX trying to hold Keltner support, and I could do so, but I don't want to consider a long position just yet.

Jonathan Levinson : 10/10/2005 10:08:06 AM

QQQQ bounced from the keltner breaks but no finds resistance at former support. Link

Linda Piazza : 10/10/2005 10:05:39 AM

Careful, bears, the OEX is now at 549.14-550.03 support. If it's going to building a higher low, this would be where it would try to steady. The OEX is now at the bottom of that channel that usually contains it on 15-minute closes, unless it's in breakdown mode, as it was last week. I thought the OEX needed this retest, but I'm not sure it needed more than this. Remains to be seen.

Jonathan Levinson : 10/10/2005 10:05:04 AM

Session low for crude oil, -.60 at 61.25.

Jonathan Levinson : 10/10/2005 10:04:03 AM

QQQQ takes out Friday's low and tests lower 30/60 min channel support. This would normally be a long signal, but none of these cycles are oversold and volume is light.

Jeff Bailey : 10/10/2005 10:02:31 AM

Sell Program Premium ... DIA $102.82, SPX 1,190.70, QQQQ $38.20.

Jonathan Levinson : 10/10/2005 10:00:37 AM

QQQQ has 30/60 min channel support just below Friday's low at 38.15. There's been no meaninful test to upper 30 min channel resistance, a further sign of weakness, but so far that 38.15-.17 level has held as support: Link

Jonathan Levinson : 10/10/2005 9:58:11 AM

Back to find volume breadth down to -1.66:1 for the NYSE and -1.77:1 for the Nasdaq. QQQQ testing 38.20 support at the low.

Linda Piazza : 10/10/2005 9:56:36 AM

Advdec line falling through support, but only tentatively so far. Still within testing range, so bears don't want to see a quick reversal just yet. Next potential support at about -1200, with the advdec line at -750 as I type.

Jeff Bailey : 10/10/2005 9:55:42 AM

Valero Energy (VLO) $105.34 -2.14% Link ... Company saying it will begin restarting two sulfur recovery units at its 250,000 barrel-per-day refinery in Port Arthur, Texas. In a filing with the Texas Commission for Environmental Equality, the company said it would start to restart the SRU-544 and SRU-545 units at the refinery which sustained significant damage when Hurricane Rita struck on Sept. 24. The restart is expected to take a week.

Linda Piazza : 10/10/2005 9:53:21 AM

Advdec line dropping into the top of that support zone now. If it just barrels through it, then the OEX may be likely to retest last week's lows, although I wouldn't be surprised to see a higher low form this time. Keltner charts suggest that higher low as a possibility. If the advdec line holds this support, however, that retest may not come. I thought Friday afternoon that it might be needed, and still think it might be, but signals are just not setting up in a conclusive way.

Jeff Bailey : 10/10/2005 9:51:48 AM

Dell Computer (DELL) $32.95 +2.68% Link ... Upgraded to "strong buy" at Needham based largely on valuation. Analyst Charles Wolf said the stock's decline since it reported second-quarter sales that missed expectations has been excessive, and ignores the company's earnings growth.

Linda Piazza : 10/10/2005 9:49:43 AM

Keltner view of the OEX: On a Keltner basis, the OEX looks vulnerable to 551.71 next support, with 549.41-550.34 possible, too, as long as it's maintaining 15-minute closes beneath a Keltner line currently at 552.63, now being tested. If that support holds on 15-minute closes, it may go on challenging Keltner resistance up to 553.57.

Jeff Bailey : 10/10/2005 9:49:20 AM

IBM (IBM) $81.80 +1.61% Link ... Upgraded to "buy" from "hold" at Citigroup. In a note to clients, analyst Richard Gardner said the optimistic outlook is fueled by a rise of 10%-15% rise in services bookings, following a 22% decline in 2004.

Jonathan Levinson : 10/10/2005 9:48:30 AM

Stepping away to let a repairman in. I will be back shortly. Recall that there will be no open market operations this morning.

Jonathan Levinson : 10/10/2005 9:47:09 AM

Gold made a new 18 year high today at 482, currently down to a 10 cent loss at 477.50 on the Dec. 2005 contract.

Linda Piazza : 10/10/2005 9:45:55 AM

Advdec line dropping back to support. If it were dropping from stronger resistance, this would have offered a potential put play on the OEX, but it never rose into the strongest resistance, so it's just not a strong-enough signal. The OEX is likely to go on challenging support or maybe even pulling back itself, but that depends on what happens as that -500 to -300 advdec support is tested. If the advdec line steadies, the OEX is likely to do so, too, but if the advdec line just plunges through that support, a stronger OEX pullback is likely. Advdec line at -10 as I type.

Jonathan Levinson : 10/10/2005 9:45:07 AM

Filtering out the premarket action, QQQQ is square in the middle of Friday's narrow sideways range: Link

Jeff Bailey : 10/10/2005 9:43:17 AM

Sell Program Premium ... DIA $102.99, SPX 1,195.15, QQQQ $38.33

Linda Piazza : 10/10/2005 9:41:25 AM

The SPX is testing the 200-ema from below, with that average at 1196.75 and the SPX at 1196.14.

Jeff Bailey : 10/10/2005 9:40:46 AM

Xilinx (XLNX) $23.00 -15.22% Link ... Programable chipmaker sharply lower and among this morning's most actively traded after the company revised down its fiscal 2006 September quarter sales guidance to a sequential decline of between 1% and 2%, compared to prior guidance of flat to 4% growth.

The company's management said turns during the month of September were hurt with manufacturing operations in Asia Pacific decreasing double digits and sales of mainsteam products were lower than expected. Gross margins are still expected to be in line with prior guidance.

Jonathan Levinson : 10/10/2005 9:37:17 AM

Volume breadth +1.08:1 on the NYSE, -1.12:1 on the Nasdaq at the open. QQQQ volume is very light at 4.7M so far.

Linda Piazza : 10/10/2005 9:37:11 AM

Advdec line stalling at first resistance, at about +600, but it's still between presumed strong support, from about -500 up to -300 and presumed strong resistance, from about +1550, up to +2000. It's at +550 as I type. No clear signal here, although if it can't maintain values above that first resistance level, it's likely to drop back to support, keeping the OEX testing its own support, too, or even pulling back. The depth of the pullback could be shallow, however, if the first strong advdec support holds. Absolutely no clear signal here by the parameters I watch.

Jeff Bailey : 10/10/2005 9:34:08 AM

Delphi Corp. (DPH) $0.58 -48.21% Link ... Filed for bankruptcy over the weekend.

Linda Piazza : 10/10/2005 9:33:23 AM

The OEX opens above the five-minute 100/130-ema's that it fought so much on Friday. The advdec line opened between support and resistance and climbs toward resistance, but it's not there yet. Further advances remain possible or at least a further challenging of 553.19-553.68 resistance on the OEX on 15-minute closes. Don't see any signal any direction just yet.

Jeff Bailey : 10/10/2005 9:31:30 AM

Dana Corp. (DCN) $6.93 -24.59% Link ... Auto parts maker sharply lower after saying it will restate earnings for 2004 and the first half of 2005, and delay posting third-quarter 2005 earnings, citing accounting problems.

Jonathan Levinson : 10/10/2005 9:13:37 AM

QQQQ's 60 min cycle continues to point down, while this morning's earlier bounce stalled the weak 30 min cycle. Both of these key directional intraday cycles have been whipsawing near their midpoints, and I believe it's due to the downturn in the broader daily cycle last week. While my bias is bearish due to the synchronous weekly and daily cycle downphases, a strong enough bounce could stall them. On an intraday basis, QQQQ remains within Friday's sideways range: Link

Jonathan Levinson : 10/10/2005 9:08:16 AM

Delphi (DPH) files under Ch. 11, and shares are down 49.09% to 1.12. This is another one that will no doubt make the labor history textbooks. GM is down 3.36% to 37.34 in the premarket.

Jonathan Levinson : 10/10/2005 8:39:30 AM

No open for bonds, as Jane has noted. There will be no Treasury auctions today, and the Fed's 5-day repo from Friday will carry through as the open market desk will be closed as well.

Linda Piazza : 10/10/2005 8:33:32 AM

Friday was a miserable day. I scalped a few points early in the day and I hope some readers scalped them with me, but I hope those readers also got out at the point I suggested, because the rest of the day was the chop I had feared. The OEX consolidated most of the day beneath the five-minute 100/130-ema's in an increasingly tight range. A late-day "surge" broke the OEX above the descending trendline off the day's high, and the OEX plowed higher by a whopping $0.60 after that wild breakout. It was not particularly convincing. It's part of the OEX's attempt to bottom, with emphasis on "attempt" for now. Such attempts have been characterized most of the year by several days at least spent in consolidation ranges, usually of at least 4-6 points, but sometimes in wider ranges than that. The OEX's 15-minute Keltner chart suggests that the current range might most likely be from the 550.29-556.08 range.

But which way will the OEX head first today? That's important to know. Unfortunately, the OEX ended the day in the middle of that range, at 552.93. Futures are higher as I type. The OEX ended the day just below a Keltner resistance level up to 553.52, so if the open produces a bounce above, say 553.63 (site of an inverse H&S neckline) and isn't immediately reversed, it may well be on its way up to test resistance from 556.08-556.48 on 15-minute closes. If it instead finds resistance at that line and especially if the advdec line opens and heads straight down, a retest of 550.28-550.70 may be first on the plate. Because the OEX ended Friday in the middle of that most likely range and because there was such tepid buying Friday, I won't be suggesting any long plays, but instead will be looking for a bounce-and-rollover opportunity.

My method of trading involves watching the advdec line more closely than OEX prices, however, and if the open shows something different than I've suggested here, I'll let you know. That method of trading sometimes misses plays, sometimes really, really good ones, but is profitable more often than not. If you see a trade set up on your own, of course go for it, but I'm not going to be suggesting anything that doesn't fit my own trading parameters. There are too many good plays out there to be participating in iffy ones.

Jonathan Levinson : 10/10/2005 8:06:38 AM

Equities are up, ES trading 1203.75, NQ 1570, YM 10355 and QQQQ +.11 at 38.45. Gold is up 2.1 at 479.70, silver +.031 at 7.801, ten year notes +3/64 at 109 25/32, crude oil -.05 at 61.80 and natgas -.24 at 12.985.

There are no major economic reports scheduled for release today.

Linda Piazza : 10/10/2005 7:26:53 AM

Good morning. Our thoughts go out this morning to those of our subscribers who might have relatives or friends impacted by the massive earthquake in South Asia or the mudslides in Guatemala after Hurricane Stan.

The Nikkei and Taiwan Weighted were closed last night, but most other Asian markets gained. European markets gain, too, with many political developments being announced in Germany today. As of 7:16 EST, gold was higher by $2.30, to $480.00, and crude, higher by $0.10, to $61.94. Our futures were modestly higher at that time. More details about Asian and European markets follows in succeeding paragraphs.

The Nikkei was closed for a holiday Monday. Ex-board member of the Bank of Japan did voice his concerns about the risk that energy prices impose on the Japanese economy. He said that when those risks begin to be fully felt might be about the time that plans for changing Japan's easy monetary policy might be being effected, and that could be a dangerous combination. Other news from Japan included Toyota Motor Corp.'s acquiring of electric motors from Hitachi Ltd. for its fuel-efficient vehicles and the successful testing of a supersonic jet that's mean to succeed the Concorde.

Most other Asian markets rose. The Taiwan Weighted was also closed. South Korea's Kospi gained 2.18%, with exporters leading the gain after September's consumer sentiment index rose for the first time since early in the year. Singapore's third-quarter GDP showed the economy growing at a 3.2% annualized rate, below the forecasted 3.7%. However, with production increasing, some feel that the government's 4.5% growth estimate for the year may be modest. The manufacture of drugs, oil rigs and ships helped boost the GDP. The Straits Times climbed 1.65%. Hong Kong's Hang Seng rose 0.34%, but China's Shanghai Composite dropped 1.44%. This month--I've read differing dates--China's Construction Bank is to launch its IPO, possibly to be the biggest IPO ever launched and certainly the biggest this year. Pricing should occur on October 20, according to one article, but another said the IPO was to be launched this week.

European markets climb. Big political news this morning is that Merkel will become chancellor in Germany. Although the general view is that this concession by Schroeder's camp will delay needed reforms, Germany perhaps rebounds after last week's drops and due to some relief at the resolution of this issue. In Germany, the August trade surplus narrowed slight more than anticipated, shrinking to 12.6 billion euros from the previous revised-lower 13.4 billion. Exports rose 3.5% month over month, but higher crude drove imports up 6.0% month over month, in addition to July's 3.7% month-over-month gain. The figures hint that the third-quarter's GDP may not see a hoped-for contribution from the net exports. The current account surplus also surprised, falling to 2.5 billion euros from the previous 7.6.

Other countries saw economic releases this morning. In France, August's industrial output increased 0.8% month-over-month after July's surprising decline. The third quarter's figure still remains 0.1% below the second quarter's. Industrial production composes about 1/5 of the GDP for France. Manufacturing output rose 0.7%. In the U.K., September's input prices fell 0.3% month over month, with the year-over-year rate dropping to 10.3% from its 12.5% figure in August. Falling crude prices helped produce that moderation. However, output prices rose a higher-than-anticipated 0.7% month over month and 3.3% year over year, with the core index rising 2.1% year over year.

Stock-specific news included a gain of more than 10% in telecom equipment maker Marconi in early trading, with the surging prices due to speculation that Ericsson may buy the company. This report helped the telecom sector, as did the optimism of Nokia's chief executive in an interview. Miners and oil majors gained. Online gaming stocks fell in the U.K., with one, Party Gaming, being a FTSE 100 component. Earnings reports are coming in, sending various stocks up or down in accordance with the reception of those earnings reports. Capgemini's COO interviewed with Accor, and Capgemini fired him, sending Capgemini's prices lower and Accor's higher. According to one newspaper report, Capgemini's former COO is not the top candidate for Accor's position, however. In other news, Merrill Lynch raised its price target on SAP, and the software maker's stock moved higher. Citigroup upgraded U.K. advertising company WPP to a buy rating and it had posted a gain of over 2% in early trading. Barron's had good things to say about share-price increase for agrichemicals group Syngenta over the next year and that company's stock had also gained 2% in early trading.

As of 7:17 EST, the FTSE 100 was higher by 31.90 points or 0.59%, to 5,394.20. The CAC 40 was higher by 26.89 points or 0.59%, to 4,555.68. The DAX was higher by 40.97 points or 0.82%, to 5,048.74.

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