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Jeff Bailey : 10/11/2005 10:42:47 PM

Program Trading Levels for Wednesday ... HL Camp & Company has their computers set for program buying at $+5.93 and set for program selling at $+2.81.

OI Technical Staff : 10/11/2005 9:59:59 PM

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Jeff Bailey : 10/11/2005 5:22:20 PM

Apple Computer (AAPL) $51.59 +2.42% Link ... Marked lower at $45.60 in extended session after the company said net income for its fiscal fourth quarter rose to $430 million, or $0.50 a share, from $106 million, or $0.13 a share, a year previous. Revenue jumped to $3.68 billion, a 56% increase from the same period a year ago.

Excluding items, AAPL said it earned $0.38 per share.

Jeff Bailey : 10/11/2005 5:04:42 PM

Closing Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 10/11/2005 4:49:12 PM

Closing U.S. Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 10/11/2005 4:15:31 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles found at this Link ... Didn't quite get a tick at my bearish target of $3.95 on SUNW this afternoon.

Jeff Bailey : 10/11/2005 4:04:31 PM

Apple Computer (AAPL) $51.59 +2.42% ... Reports quarterly earnings after the bell. Consensus among 24 analysts is for $0.37 per share on revenue of $3.74 billion. Low/high EPS estimates are $0.33/$0.43. Low/high revenue is $3.54 billion/$3.95 billion.

Linda Piazza : 10/11/2005 3:54:42 PM

Based on where the advdec line will close, I wouldn't be surprised to see an early bounce tomorrow morning, but it could be of the pop-and-drop variety, as we saw on the 7th and today. I'll be watching closely tomorrow morning to see how the advdec line sets up and whether that looks like a possibility. Of course, I haven't seen how futures will behave, and so an OEX bounce tomorrow morning could come from a lower level than today's close.

Linda Piazza : 10/11/2005 3:49:47 PM

The OEX is bouncing through the descending regression channel in which it's traveling, with the top of that channel roughly congruent with the 10-minute 100-ema at 551.49. The 130-ema is at 552.13, and the OEX would have to produce ten-minute closes above those levels before it even begins to change its tenor. The advdec line's bounce is far from convincing just yet.

Linda Piazza : 10/11/2005 3:43:33 PM

I deleted that "if it weren't so late in the day" entry, because I didn't want to seem to be encouraging long plays so late in the day, based on day trading parameters.

Jonathan Levinson : 10/11/2005 3:40:13 PM

QQQQ's 30 and 60 min cycle oscillators continue to edge lower, showing potential bullish divergences here from last Thursday's lows. I believe that these oscillators are actually trending, as there's no clear movement such as we see on most days. The daily cycle remains down, and so does the weekly, and so the bias remains in that direction. A bounce above this afternoon's 38.12 high would be a problem for bears, but below the 72 SMA at 37.95, the onus remains on the bulls.

Linda Piazza : 10/11/2005 3:35:32 PM

Advdec line dropping into the next support level. So far, none of these have stoped its descent, but each one passed brings it into a stronger possibility of finally hitting support. RSI beginning to dip into levels that suggest some overdone-ness to the descent, but not quite there yet.

Linda Piazza : 10/11/2005 3:31:58 PM

RUT below the 200-sma and -ema's, headed down toward the 629.28-ish level that's the 50% retracement of its last rally.

Linda Piazza : 10/11/2005 3:31:27 PM

Okay, OEX bears. Although RSI isn't quite where I'd like to see it be for a new long play, it and the advdec line's level are both approaching levels that signal danger to bears. A thorough waterfall decline is possible into the close as the advdec line hasn't yet stopped falling, but it's reaching levels that could signal a turnaround to come soon, levels that it hasn't reached all day. On behalf of wannabe longs, I'm looking for stronger signals, but since the signals I follow are generally day trades and since it's so late in the day, I'm probably not going to offer any long signals, but I do want to warn bears that danger grows of a bounce. If you still haven't taken partial profits, now is the the time to do it. Ratchet down your stops. Start making end-of-day decisions about whether you'll hold overnight and let those decisions help guide you as to how tightly you'll place those stops.

Jonathan Levinson : 10/11/2005 3:30:43 PM

Double bottom support is being tested here. A break should see a quick move to those lower channel supports at 37.70: Link

Linda Piazza : 10/11/2005 3:25:30 PM

OEX Keltner picture: The OEX is approaching 547.83-548.62 Keltner support. It's also at the bottom of its descending regression channel off Friday's high, at today's 548.87 previous LOD as I type. Potential for a bounce here, although the advdec line still drops and doesn't support that idea just yet. OEX just reached a slightly lower new LOD, too. Still bounce potential. Watch for that, bears.

Jonathan Levinson : 10/11/2005 3:25:10 PM

Session low for QQQQ here. 30/60 min channel support are down to 37.70, the start of confluence support to 37.50.

Jonathan Levinson : 10/11/2005 3:23:14 PM

Volume breadth -1.57:1 on the NYSE, -3.38:1 on the Nasdaq.

Linda Piazza : 10/11/2005 3:23:14 PM

No quick advdec line reversal back through the support being tested. Unless that happens within this five-minute period, the Keltner-style bullish divergence will be reversed. Next support at -2300. Advdec line at -1800 as I type.

Jeff Bailey : 10/11/2005 3:23:06 PM

Sell Program Premium ... DIA $102.59, SPX 1,184.70, QQQQ $37.85

Jonathan Levinson : 10/11/2005 3:22:36 PM

QQQQ breaks south out of the rising expanding wedge: Link

Linda Piazza : 10/11/2005 3:21:18 PM

Advdec line drifting lower into potential support, now near -1600. If it's to maintain the Keltner-style bullish divergence it's been setting up, it won't drift much lower than that, or will quickly reverse back up through it, if it does. Advdec at -1540 as I type.

Jeff Bailey : 10/11/2005 3:14:58 PM

03:00 Internals found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 10/11/2005 3:12:35 PM

Advdec line tentatively holding to -1560 support, and showing tentative Keltner-style bullish divergence, too, but that's tentative only. So far, the OEX continues to show Keltner-style bullish divergence on each dip, too. The advdec line is still just not showing RSI evidence that it's "oversold," though, so there can't yet be any faith in the downside and we saw how successful the upside test was. My gut feel here is that the OEX is trying to bottom, at least over the short-term and within that 4-6-point range, but the advdec line still unfortunately looks susceptible to a further downdraft. With that bullish divergence, it's not certain it will come, but charts say it's susceptible to it.

Earlier, when I had suggested that OEX pullback to 550.80-551.20 or so could be new bullish entries, but only if the advdec line held above -800, that advdec line's action kept bulls from entering, warning them that the setup wasn't working as expected. There are just too many good setups for me to suggest an iffy one, no matter what my gut might be suggesting.

Jonathan Levinson : 10/11/2005 3:11:22 PM

The pattern printed today is prertty much unreadable- it's almost a reverse sloping h&s, or, alternatively a rising expanding wedge with support at 37.90 here: Link

Linda Piazza : 10/11/2005 3:06:05 PM

The RUT is at its converging 200-sma and -ema's, trying to bounce from both. They're at 634.44 and 635.26, respectively, and the RUT is at 635.24. The 50% retracement of the rise off the April low into the summer's high is at about 629.28, and that should provide strong enough support to prompt at least a bounce attempt if the 200-sma and -ema's aren't.

Jeff Bailey : 10/11/2005 3:02:22 PM

03:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 10/11/2005 2:59:21 PM

Advdec line approaching support again. Bears, watch for a possible bounce again.

Linda Piazza : 10/11/2005 2:58:36 PM

The advdec line is dropping, but dropping in a choppier manner than it rose earlier, almost reluctantly, if I can be allowed a little anthropomorphic reference. Looks vulnerable to -1525, next support.

Jonathan Levinson : 10/11/2005 2:55:07 PM

QQQQ is back below the 72 SMA as the short cycle upphase stalls. Another reversal without ever testing 30 min channel resistance or support: Link

Jonathan Levinson : 10/11/2005 2:43:38 PM

Volume breadth -1.3:1 on the NYSE, -2.05:1 on the Nasdaq.

Linda Piazza : 10/11/2005 2:41:44 PM

OEX dropping beneath Keltner support at 550.74 on 15-minute closes, too, making it vulnerable to 548.08-549.13 next support unless it can pull up soon. OEX at 550.27 as I type.

Jeff Bailey : 10/11/2005 2:40:27 PM

Sell Program Premium ... DIA $102.86, SPX 1,188.04, QQQQ $38.01

Linda Piazza : 10/11/2005 2:40:04 PM

Here's what I see. While the advdec line did drop below the -800 level (-895 as I type), it is trying to steady at the lower edge of the S/R zone that it had bumped above. The jury is still out as to whether it will be able to maintain that support. If not, it's subject to a downdraft to -1500 again, if not -1900. That support is in about the -950 zone. The OEX, meanwhile, hovers near the 10-minute 100/130-ema's, not drifting back too far. If the advdec line had held above -800, I would have felt comfortable suggesting a long scalp with an upside target of about 2 points, but that was one of the conditions and it just hasn't been met, so I don't feel comfortable . . . and the advdec line drops as I type, bringing the OEX lower with it.

Jeff Bailey : 10/11/2005 2:34:32 PM

Program Trading Levels ... HL Camp has now updated today's buy/sell program premium levels. Their computers are set for program buying at $+5.82 and set for program selling at $+2.89.

There was a strong buy program premium found at 02:11 PM EDT.

Linda Piazza : 10/11/2005 2:31:39 PM

Bigger drop than you want in the advdec line here, if considering a new long entry. It's at -870, not steadying at the -800 level as I suggested as one of the requirements for entering a new long play.

Linda Piazza : 10/11/2005 2:29:10 PM

So far, former advdec line resistance holds as support. The OEX is climbing, too, into the 10-minute 100/130-ema's. It has not dipped back to the 550.80-551.20 level since my 2:23:23 post, which might be fortunate or unfortunate, depending on what happens next. The advdec line holds that support in the -800 level and charges toward next resistance in the -290 area. The signals aren't really clear here, and the OEX's ten-minute 100/130-ema's are holding as support, so only real risk-takers should be considering a long play anyway.

Jonathan Levinson : 10/11/2005 2:25:38 PM

Session high for crude oil her at 61.875 with 5 minutes left in the daytime session. Natgas is up .515 at 13.49.

Linda Piazza : 10/11/2005 2:23:22 PM

Tentative advdec line break above resistance, if it holds. OEX resistance at the 10-minute 100/130-ema's and top of the descending regression channel holds so far, though. Aggressive longs could be entered on any OEX dips into the 550.80-551.20 zone if the advdec line holds above -800 while that happens, but only for those aggressive traders who can scalp the two points before the OEX runs straight into next resistance again.

Jeff Bailey : 10/11/2005 2:22:56 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 10/11/2005 2:22:52 PM

QQQQ update at this Link . That buy program launched at 2:15 to the minute, and it looks like the Fed's big repo add is making itself felt. So far, this bounce is a lot smaller than what happened at last Thursday's low, but until price gets back below the 72 SMA at 38.00, the benefit of the doubt will go to QQQQ bulls.

Linda Piazza : 10/11/2005 2:17:06 PM

OEX pushing straight to the top of that descending regression channel and up to the significant 10-minute 100/130-ema's at 551.79 and 552.45. OEX at 551.94 as I type. The advdec line zoomed, too, straight up to that resistance level that turned it back. Not sure how to interpret this volatility post-FOMC meetings, as so far, everything has just been brought up to known resistance. There is now the tentative bullish divergence I'd been waiting to see on the advdec value/RSI, but it happened as the OEX zoomed all the way to known resistance. I'm going to have to wait and see how the OEX manages those 10-minute 100/130-ema's and the advdec line that resistance before I draw any conclusions, as this could be just a stop-running move or something like late-yesterday's rapid-fire movements through this same regression channel.

Jonathan Levinson : 10/11/2005 2:14:34 PM

QQQQ blasts above 72 SMA resistance for the first time today: Link . If the bulls can hold these levels for another 10 minutes or so, the 30 min cycle should turn up.

Linda Piazza : 10/11/2005 2:12:46 PM

OEX and advdec line both bouncing strongly, the advdec line from just above that -1800 level. The advdec line showed tentative bullish divergence on the last push lower.

Jeff Bailey : 10/11/2005 2:10:47 PM

02:00 Internals found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 10/11/2005 2:09:37 PM

The OEX is now approaching the bottom of its descending regression channel off last Friday's high. That's at about 549.10. OEX Keltner support at 548.23-549.05 on 15-minute closes, if it's to continue its Keltner-style bullish divergence. The advdec line dives into support, too, but RSI still isn't registering oversold levels on the advdec line yet. Still looks a bit premature to go long the OEX, based on those parameters, but may be getting closer.

Jonathan Levinson : 10/11/2005 2:08:35 PM

Second that, Marc. I'm having buyer's remorse from this morning.

Linda Piazza : 10/11/2005 2:07:09 PM

And the advdec line will likely test that -1800-ish support, with next support below that at about -2200.

Jonathan Levinson : 10/11/2005 2:06:17 PM

Full text of the minutes from the Sept. 20th Fed meeting at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 10/11/2005 2:05:42 PM

QQQQ tests 72 SMA resistance here at 37.99. So far, the 30 min channel has yet to be violated either to the upside or to the downside. Link

Jonathan Levinson : 10/11/2005 2:03:13 PM

Volume breadth -1.38:1 on the NYSE, -2.53:1 on the Nasdaq.

Linda Piazza : 10/11/2005 2:02:36 PM

Advdec line again testing newish -1400 support, to see if it holds. Next support about -1800.

Jeff Bailey : 10/11/2005 2:02:20 PM

02:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 10/11/2005 1:59:52 PM

Ten year notes still weak, TNX +3 bps at 4.391%, IRX +3.7 bps at 3.57%, slight flattening.

Linda Piazza : 10/11/2005 1:59:50 PM

Advdec line is pulling back from that resistance. This is why I said in my 1:30:25 post that the then-current level was not one from which I'd want to enter a long position. I don't think we've settled yet whether the advdec line has hit bottom or not.

Jonathan Levinson : 10/11/2005 1:59:19 PM

QQQQ update at this Link , the 30 min channel flattening but price still heavy below S1.

Jonathan Levinson : 10/11/2005 1:58:47 PM









Linda Piazza : 10/11/2005 1:50:54 PM

So far, the advdec line's resistance is holding, but only tentatively so far.

Linda Piazza : 10/11/2005 1:41:35 PM

Advdec line still testing resistance. While it hasn't quite broken above that resistance, it has confirmed the inverse H&S on its 10-minute chart. Still watching to see if that resistance holds. Meanwhile, the OEX pulls back from 551.24-551.63 next Keltner resistance on 15-minute closes.

Linda Piazza : 10/11/2005 1:33:52 PM

Do other writers have experience with the symbol for the advdec on QuoteTracker, IB, thinkorswim or OptionsXpress?

Linda Piazza : 10/11/2005 1:30:25 PM

So far, since yesterday, the OEX has continued Keltner-style bullish divergence on its 15-minute chart. I, like everyone, am looking for signs that the OEX has finished its short-term bottoming test, and this is one sign to pay attention at least. I'm watching to see if the advdec line is going to retreat again and if new -1400-ish support holds if it does. Alternately, I'm watching to see if it breaks strongly above -700-ish resistance. There's a potential inverse H&S on the advdec line, and those sometimes do matter, but it hasn't confirmed and that resistance so far holds. This is not the level from which I'd want to enter a bullish play.

Linda Piazza : 10/11/2005 1:25:38 PM

Despite the strong candle, the advdec line pausing beneath that -750-ish resistance. (It's moved up a little.) I'm watching to see if it continues to hold. So far, it does, but the potential for another movement down toward stronger support continues.

Linda Piazza : 10/11/2005 1:17:12 PM

The advdec line heads into -800 potential resistance. This is the strongest climb in the advdec line since the 10:20 ten-minute candle, but this resistance could be important. The advdec line did not register as oversold (RSI) as I'd like to have seen it register before I considered the downside completed. There was no bullish divergence as it hit its low, so I'm not yet convinced that the downside is finished.

Jeff Bailey : 10/11/2005 1:13:26 PM

01:00 Internals found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 10/11/2005 1:07:27 PM

The OEX is trading through that descending regression channel off Friday's high. One version now shows the top resistance at just under 552 and the bottom support at about 549.20 currently, but with some intra-15-minute punches above and below that support and resistance. It would take a 15-minute close above the top of that channel to change the tenor at all.

Linda Piazza : 10/11/2005 1:04:21 PM

Several people have written asking about my use of the advdec line today. My September 6 TradersCorner Link explained a little about my early explorations of using the advdec line to predict index movements. Here's what I was seeing this morning when I was thinking that we could be seeing a pop-and-drop day due to the resistance being tested: Link

Jeff Bailey : 10/11/2005 1:04:21 PM

01:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 10/11/2005 1:00:44 PM

RealNetworks (RNWK) $8.07 +40% ... released for trade.

Linda Piazza : 10/11/2005 1:00:24 PM

It still looks possible for the advdec line to dip a bit further, perhaps into the -1800 level.

Linda Piazza : 10/11/2005 12:45:49 PM

The SOX is not so very far above its 200-sma at 433.23 with a SOX LOD of 437.84. The bottom of the SOX's rising regression channel, in place for a year, is at about 408.80, but I suspect the SOX may attempt a bounce from that 200-sma if it should touch it.

Linda Piazza : 10/11/2005 12:40:37 PM

At any point, a bounce could occur, so bears should keep revising their profit-protecting plans. The advdec line still looks vulnerable to the -1800 level, at least, but perhaps not until a bounce first to retest broken support. If such a bounce during the lunchtime lull could get too much steam behind it, bulls could take over.

Linda Piazza : 10/11/2005 12:37:52 PM

There may be some slight signs that the advdec line is trying to steady before hitting next support, but it's far from bouncing yet and slightly lower, at least, still remains possible.

Linda Piazza : 10/11/2005 12:30:12 PM

The advdec line is still headed down, into the next support, now from -1800 to -2200. This is a level of strong potential support again, although none of those has stopped the advdec line or the OEX so far. However, I would again guard bearish profits if the advdec line should dip into that support zone and the OEX is also holding above 548.38 Keltner support. That's perhaps weak support for the OEX.

Jonathan Levinson : 10/11/2005 12:20:15 PM

I need to go. Back in an hour and a half.

Linda Piazza : 10/11/2005 12:19:06 PM

Back for another check-in. The OEX's Keltner support is now from 548.47-549.06 on a 15-minute closing basis, with next support below that at 546.92. First resistance at 550.22. The advdec line still heads lower, but there's the slightest chance that it could try to steady near its -1267 current level and attempt to retest resistance. That resistance looks strong, however, and a drop down to -1770, and perhaps rather soon, could be in the works. At that point, down to -2150, the advdec line will be reaching extreme levels to the downside and further downside moves on the OEX might be tempered.

Jonathan Levinson : 10/11/2005 12:16:03 PM

QQQQ tests lower short cycle channel support, with the 30 min channel dropping to 37.80 here. Link

Jeff Bailey : 10/11/2005 12:15:28 PM

12:00 Internals found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 10/11/2005 12:11:26 PM

My ride just called to tell me that he's going to be 10 minutes late, so I'm still around. Note on the 4 day 3-min QQQQ chart that this is actually the second test of the 200 day EMA, the first having taken place at Thursday's spike low: Link

Jeff Bailey : 10/11/2005 12:04:03 PM

12:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 10/11/2005 12:03:43 PM

Just noticed that Jonathan is going to be away, too, so I'll step up my efforts to post as often as possible until I can return full-time.

Linda Piazza : 10/11/2005 12:02:51 PM

I'm going to be away a little longer than I'd expected, but am checking in and will do so as often as I can. I wanted to note that although the OEX is testing support from yesterday and this could be thought to be a double-bottom area, the advdec line fell below next support and remains vulnerable to a downdraft toward -1700, perhaps after a bounce up to retest the -600 level. It's at -825 as I type. In other words, this doesn't yet look like a good level from which to go long.

Jonathan Levinson : 10/11/2005 11:58:39 AM

I need to step away in a few minutes for an appointment that I expect to take around an hour and half. QQQQ is in a setup with an oversold short cycle, almost oversold 30 min cycle, and neutral 60 min cycle downphase. A short cycle bounce can be expected, but it should remain corrective below declining 30 min channel resistance at 38.25. Link

Jeff Bailey : 10/11/2005 11:55:05 AM

BioCryst Pharmaceuticals (BCRX) $14.29 +10.24% Link ... surging on CNBC's "Bird Flu" report.

Jonathan Levinson : 10/11/2005 11:48:28 AM

Session highs for gold and silver here at 480.60 and 7.949, +2.60 and .104 respectively.

Tab Gilles : 10/11/2005 11:46:18 AM

Follow up charts:

Material Select Sector SPDR (XLB) (from 10/5 11:11PM) Link Link Link

Storm Cat Energy (SME.V & SCU) (from 10/6 12:05AM) Link Link

$COMPQ/$NAHL/$NASI (from 10/5 11:02PM) Link Link Link Link

Jonathan Levinson : 10/11/2005 11:45:12 AM

QQQQ tested the 200 day EMA at the 37.92 low, and the short cycle indicators have drifted lower into oversold territory. 30 min channel support now lines up with S2 at 37.85, but shows no sign of slowing its descent yet: Link

Jeff Bailey : 10/11/2005 11:37:59 AM

Lattice Semiconductor (LSCC) $4.35 +7.67% Link ... Company saying Q3 revenue growth is expected to be at the high end of its previous sequential growth estimate of 1% to 2%. The chipmaker said it would report full results after the stock market closes on October 26.

Jonathan Levinson : 10/11/2005 11:37:01 AM

NYSE volume breadth has finally joined that of the Nasdaq in negative territory, just below neutral at -1.19:1 but well off its earlier 3:1+ highs. Crude oil and natgas remain strong, while ten and 13-week rates are holding 3 bp gains at 4.392% and 3.563% respectively. Wherever the Fed's money repo is going, I'm seeing no sign of it yet.

Jonathan Levinson : 10/11/2005 11:32:43 AM

New lows for QQQQ here, with 30 min channel support down to 37.96: Link

Jonathan Levinson : 10/11/2005 11:28:37 AM

Session low for 10 year notes here at 109 1/2, TNX +3.1 bps at 4.392%.

Jeff Bailey : 10/11/2005 11:26:23 AM

RealNetworks (RNWK) $5.75 Link ... Has been halted for trade this morning on news that it and longtime adversary Microsoft (MSFT) $24.33 -0.53% Link will hold a news conference later today, with speculation that the company's have settled RNWK's antitrust lawsuit against MSFT.

RealNetworks sued Microsoft in December 2003, accusing the software giant of illegally forcing Windows users to accept Microsoft's digital media player. RealNetworks said its music player suffered as a result.

The Wall Street Journal has reported that a settlement would cost Microsoft $750 million. It was unclear how much of that would be in cash; the Journal said that Microsoft would work to promote RealNetworks music and game services and that the companies would collaborate on technology initiatives.

Jonathan Levinson : 10/11/2005 11:19:42 AM

GOOG is down 1.36% at at a session low of 306.41, weaker than the broader market for a change.

Jeff Bailey : 10/11/2005 11:16:32 AM

11:00 Internals found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 10/11/2005 11:12:50 AM

I have to step away, perhaps for as much as an hour, although I hope for a shorter time. The advdec line is approaching potentially strong support in the -350 level, down to -650. The OEX is showing a propensity to jump higher at any little opportunity. I've already advised bears from this morning to take at least partial profits, if not total profits, but vulnerability to 548.65-549.41 Keltner support exists for those who retained a portion of their bearish positions. I'm just not so sure that I trust that the OEX is going to get there. I'll be back as soon as I can.

Jonathan Levinson : 10/11/2005 11:12:33 AM

Volume breadth is down to -1.85:1 on the Nasdaq, and 30 min channel support is down to 37.90 on QQQQ, the 72 SMA at 38.10. Below that level, QQQQ bears remain in control.

Jeff Bailey : 10/11/2005 11:06:48 AM

11:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 10/11/2005 11:04:08 AM

Delphi (DPH) $0.36 ... NYSE suspends trading in stocks and bonds due to "abnormally low" trading levels of its stock.

I (Jeff Bailey) believe "abnormally low" means price, not volume.

In a statement, the NYSE noted that it "may, at any time, suspend a security if it believes continued dealings in the security on the NYSE are not advisable."

Linda Piazza : 10/11/2005 11:02:57 AM

Advdec line is inching beneath the support it's been testing, but by -350 to -400, it will be testing the strongest support it's tested all day. It's at -64 as I type. If there are bears still in an OEX play, prepare for a potential steadying or bounce from that level. Today, on the OEX, that often means a zoom higher.

Linda Piazza : 10/11/2005 11:01:01 AM

And there goes the OEX again, bouncing up strongly to retest the trendline that it just broke through. I took my profit when I suggested that readers do so or at least take partial profit. I'm going to sit this out although for those still in the play, there's potential for further downside. I would not keep a full position, however.

Jeff Bailey : 10/11/2005 11:00:30 AM

November Heating Oil (ho05x) $2.02 +2.53% ... jumps back above the $2.00 level.

Jonathan Levinson : 10/11/2005 10:58:25 AM

Neither the 30 nor 60 min cycles are anywhere near oversold, with price at critical support. If the current levels don't hold, the bulls will have a problem. Next confluence is in the 37.50-.70 area.

Jeff Bailey : 10/11/2005 10:58:09 AM

Pfizer (PFE) $24.10 -1.43% Link ... Stock lower despite the Supreme Court rejecting an appeal from generic drug maker Teva Pharmaceuticals (TEVA) $34.01 -0.93% Link over the patent for the antidepressant Zoloft, in a case that sought to speed up development of a cheaper substitute.

At issue in the appeal, filed by Teva Pharmaceuticals USA, was when federal courts can intervene in cases involving proposed generic drugs.

Justices were told the sooner that generic drug companies can get patent disputes resolved, the more quickly they can get those drugs ready to go to market.

One of Pfizer's patents expires next year, and Teva planned to begin marketing its new drug after that. Pfizer, however, declined to initially contest Teva's plans. A federal appeals court said there was no dispute to be settled.

Linda Piazza : 10/11/2005 10:56:20 AM

Advdec line fell through the support as bears would have wanted and the OEX finally succumbs, too. This is why I like trading based on the advdec line, because although there are uncomfortable moments and the timing isn't always exact, the movements of that advdec line prove a better predictor for me of how a play is actually doing. When trading for myself, and not for subscribers out there, I tend to try to ignore the OEX price as much as possible and trade on the advdec line. It's not always easy to do, and today was one example.

For now, as a reminder, I've advised that some or all bearish profits be taken off the table. There's potential for the advdec line to drop a bit further, but the action today has just been weird.

Linda Piazza : 10/11/2005 10:53:44 AM

The OEX tests that trendline off yesteday's low, and I'd take part of my bearish profits off the table here and reset stops.

Jonathan Levinson : 10/11/2005 10:53:17 AM

QQQQ is printing a new low despite a .26 or 1.63% drop for the NDX volatility index (QQV). 30 min channel support is down to 37.92. Link

Linda Piazza : 10/11/2005 10:50:15 AM

The ascending trendline off yesterday's OEX LOD is now just a touch above 550.50, and should be presumed to be potential support if the OEX should dip that far. For those in a bearish OEX play, I'd certainly consider cashing in all or a hefty portion of my chips if that level should be approached.

So far, this just rates as another of the bear flag climbs we've seen over the last few days, although this one is a particularly volatile one. The advdec line is again dropping, but into the 400-ish support, and the OEX is already trying to rise in advance of an advdec line holding that support. This is difficult to gauge and I'd advise that any in a bearish play and nervous about it take any breakeven or small profits offered on any dips and just get out. This was never meant to capitalize on a big downturn, anyway. So far, I'm still not alarmed by the advdec line's behavior, but the OEX's proves problematic, and it's that index that we're trading.

Jeff Bailey : 10/11/2005 10:47:47 AM

10 Most Active ... QQQQ $38.09 -0.10%, SPY $119.07 +0.39%, MSFT $24.38 -0.32%, NOK $16.94 +0.71%, JDSU $2.11 -1.40%, CSCO $17.35 -0.74%, SWKS -14.52%, GM $26.26 +3.06%, EWJ $11.97 +2.13%, AAPL $51.43 +2.10%

Jonathan Levinson : 10/11/2005 10:47:20 AM

Volume breadth +1.66:1 on the NYSE, -1.28:1 on the Nasdaq. Crude oil is up 1.25 at 63.05, natgas +.405 at 13.38.

Jonathan Levinson : 10/11/2005 10:44:20 AM

Session lows across the board as the QQQQ bear flag breaks. Link

Linda Piazza : 10/11/2005 10:41:26 AM

Advdec line's strongest support now at 500-630, with the advdec line at 787 as I type. There's a chance the advdec line could be coiling above that support, so bears would prefer to see it dip below it again and stay below it this time.

Jeff Bailey : 10/11/2005 10:39:29 AM

Alcoa (AA) $23.37 +3.13% Link ... Percentage gainer among the Dow Industrials components. The aluminum giant said Q3 quarterly profits rose 2% from a year ago.

Alcoa said late yesterday that net income rose to $289 million, or $0.33 per share, compared with a profit of $283 million, or $0.32 per share, during the same period last year. The results include a gain of $0.04 per share from railroad sales.

Sales grew to $6.57 billion, up 13% from $5.81 billion a year ago. Revenue for the first nine months of the year were $19.5 billion, a 13% increase from the same period in 2004.

The results were ahead of the $0.29 per share consensus estimate.

Linda Piazza : 10/11/2005 10:39:34 AM

OEX back for a retest of the five-minute 100/130-ema's, but I'm dialing up to the 10-minute versions because they've been holding back the OEX on tests since yesterday. The 10-minute versions are at 552.58 and 553.30, respectively. The OEX is at 551.68 as I type, right at the five-minute 100-ema.

Jonathan Levinson : 10/11/2005 10:38:53 AM

QQQQ breaks back to the bottom of the bear flag in play since yesterday PM: Link

Linda Piazza : 10/11/2005 10:36:09 AM

The OEX is just not behaving itself! I'm not seeing anything alarming yet in the action of the advdec line--just an expected bounce and retest of resistance, so far--but the OEX is doing the same sort of zooming around that it was doing yesterday afternoon. Bears, make your own decisions about whether staying in the bearish play or not. I hope some of you were able to exit for a small profit where I advised that a bounce was imminent, but if not, you want to see the 1930-ish resistance hold on the advdec line and you want to see a drop back below the 800-ish and then 400-ish zones.

Jonathan Levinson : 10/11/2005 10:30:27 AM

QQQQ bounced back to premarket resistance, currently back to rising wedge support here at 38.17: Link

Linda Piazza : 10/11/2005 10:29:10 AM

Bears need the advdec line to find resistance in the 800-1000-ish zone now being tested, then fall below 300-400. It's not happening yet as I type, with the OEX surging up as I type, too. The advdec line still isn't looking particularly healthy, and may be just headed up for a retest of former resistance, but the OEX is trying to lead the way again today, not behaving as it usually does in accordance with the advdec line and trying to lead it higher. The OEX is testing the top of one version of that descending regression channel off Friday's high again, with the other version topping out just above 553, but the OEX has come perilously close to hitting the previous HOD.

Jeff Bailey : 10/11/2005 10:22:02 AM

AMR Corp. (AMR) $11.75 -2.00% Link ... Company saying it is seeking consents for amendments related to $500 million worth of New York City Industrial Development Agency Special Revenue bonds related to the John F. Kennedy International Airport Project. The company said the amendments related to contemplation of a potential offering of additional bonds and to the financing of costs related to a new terminal.

Linda Piazza : 10/11/2005 10:20:30 AM

Advdec line hit and bounced from that 400-ish support. Next resistance just overhead now, too, at 700-800, so we'll have to see which wins out. Bears definitively need the resistance to win out. Advdec line at 663 as I type.

Jonathan Levinson : 10/11/2005 10:18:53 AM

Stepping away for a few minutes.

Jonathan Levinson : 10/11/2005 10:18:29 AM

Ten year notes have weakened, TNX up to a 1 bp gain at 4.371%. IRX is up .7 bps at 3.54%.

Jonathan Levinson : 10/11/2005 10:17:43 AM

Volume breadth +1.72:1 on the NYSE, -1.16:1 on the Nasdaq.

Jeff Bailey : 10/11/2005 10:17:34 AM

Current OPEN MM Profiles found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 10/11/2005 10:17:09 AM

Advdec line edging a little below that potential support, but still withing "testing" range. Still, bears are happy to see this development, and would now like to see the advdec line tumble into negative values, although 400 is likely to be next potential support. So far, so good, bears, but I think you can expect an advdec line bounce any moment.

Linda Piazza : 10/11/2005 10:14:41 AM

Advdec line still dropping, getting closer to potentially strong support. The OEX is not dropping with it, but instead consolidates just below the five-minute 100/130-ema's and this morning's gap. That isn't particularly bullish behavior, but bears would prefer to see outright bearish behavior and another steep drop to follow the earlier one. Advdec line at 786 as I type, support near 700-750.

Jonathan Levinson : 10/11/2005 10:14:02 AM

Do you suppose the fed's repo has anything to do with the FOMC meeting minutes? Maybe they're going to weigh on the market and the fed's trying to keep things balanced. Time will tell :)

We can only guesstimate based on the clues they provide us. Because of Fisher's recent speeches, I doubt that the Fed would try to cushion the blow of any "scary" inflation talk- Fisher's been talking as scary as a Fed-head could. More likely, today's repo is to monetize some of the Treasury issuances and possibly support the sputtering equity markets- in that order of priority. That would be my guess.

Jeff Bailey : 10/11/2005 10:11:34 AM

10:00 Internals found at this Link

Yesterday's Internals found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 10/11/2005 10:10:52 AM

I think it's likely that the advdec line will drop a bit further, at least, and that the OEX might drop back from its present 551.24 level, too, at least some. I'm not sure what will happen after the advdec line drops into the 700-800-ish zone, however, and bears need to be prepared for the possibiltiy that it could then find support and climb again.

Jonathan Levinson : 10/11/2005 10:10:50 AM

QQQQ - Exit Point Alert -

Out QQQQ short at 38.13, +.33.

Jonathan Levinson : 10/11/2005 10:09:30 AM

Crude oil +.925 here at 62.725. Natgas +.295 at 13.27, a session high.

Linda Piazza : 10/11/2005 10:08:59 AM

Advdec line still dropping, but will find potentially strong support near 700, with the advdec line at 967 as I type. The OEX is back in that volatile zone from yesterday and it's behaving that way, too. It's trying to maintain 15-minute support at the Keltner line currently at 551.23, and bears really would like to see a 15-minute close below that line. This is why I advised protecting profits, if any earlier, and that this was good only for scalping.

Linda Piazza : 10/11/2005 10:04:20 AM

Okay, if you were scalping a few bearish points on the OEX after my earlier post, you're glad to see this decline, but the OEX is now needs a 15-minute close below the Keltner line currently at 551.22 to make you feel better, and there's still a long period to go in this 15-minute period. Next support at 548.90-549.53, and I'd certainly take something off the table as the OEX neared that level.

Jonathan Levinson : 10/11/2005 10:03:25 AM

Volume breadth flips to negative on the Nasdaq here, still positive +2:1 on the NYSE.

Jeff Bailey : 10/11/2005 10:02:01 AM

10:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 10/11/2005 10:02:52 AM

I would not be surprised if the OEX had not already hit its high of the day, although I'd change my thought if the advdec line were to stop dropping and suddenly climb up toward 2500. It's at 1468 as I type. That doesn't mean that I necessarily see huge downside for the OEX, too. This advdec pattern is setting up like that on the 3rd and 7th, and there was a decline and then sideways on the 3rd and just sideways-down on the 7th.

Jonathan Levinson : 10/11/2005 9:59:51 AM

I'm tempted to cover the QQQQ short here and bag our profit. The Fed's repo has me nervous, but so far the price is holding below premarket levels, and just below confluence resistance. Link

Linda Piazza : 10/11/2005 9:59:37 AM

OEX testing the five-minute 100/130-ema's and the little running gap this morning on the five-minute chart. There could be strong support here, which is the reason that I told scalpers to know how they'd handle this test. The advdec line is turning lower at resistance but not by much just yet.

Linda Piazza : 10/11/2005 9:55:48 AM

Advdec line pulling back, but nothing significant yet. It's a step in the right direction for those trying to scalp a few downside points, but that push toward 2550 remains possible.

Jonathan Levinson : 10/11/2005 9:55:14 AM

The Fed announces a 6.25B overnight repo with no expiries, for a net add of 6.25B The stop out rate is 5 bps below the 3.75 target, which should be a bullish indication for the markets as demand for the money is lower than the Fed's target overnight rate. But with a pile of Treasury auctions scheduled today, there could be additional demands on that excess liquidity.

Linda Piazza : 10/11/2005 9:54:01 AM

Still watching for signs of a pullback in the advdec line. There's the potential for a climb up to 2550 or so, with the advdec line now at 1932, but currently facing likely strong resistance. If you're an adept OEX scalper and know yourself well enough to know that you won't do the deer-in-the-headlights thing if the OEX heads above yesterday's high, perhaps heading toward 555 if that should happen, you could try a bearish play here, but you'll want to see the advdec turn down very soon, and you'll need to evaluate how you'll handle the trade if the OEX can't get below the five-minute 100-ema at 551.71.

Jonathan Levinson : 10/11/2005 9:52:54 AM

QQQQ closeup at this Link with price holding in a possible bear wedge or flag. Confirmation will come if the session lows break on a surge in volume.

Linda Piazza : 10/11/2005 9:50:26 AM

The OEX is challenging trendline resistance in the 552.50-ish zone (one version of the former descending regression channel, with the other versions resistance up closer to 553).

Linda Piazza : 10/11/2005 9:47:02 AM

Advdec line not pulling back yet.

Jonathan Levinson : 10/11/2005 9:45:44 AM

Volume breadth +2.93:1 on the NYSE, +1.79:1 on the Nasdaq.

Linda Piazza : 10/11/2005 9:42:39 AM

The advdec line has not stopped rising and neither has the OEX, of course. If you were in a long play either from yesterday's close or at the open, this is one level where I counseled protecting profits, and the extreme level and possibility of a pop-and-drop move urges me to repeat that advise. The advdec line has not turned lower, but this next 15-minute is typically the time period when such a move occurs. So, there's no evidence of a pop-and-drop as yet, but the possibility exists, so protect those profits.

Jonathan Levinson : 10/11/2005 9:37:38 AM

QQQQ's 30 min channel continues to point down. Filtering out the premarket action, lower channel upport is at 37.95: Link

Linda Piazza : 10/11/2005 9:36:13 AM

The OEX just leaped across the five-minute 100/130-ema's, with the gap readily visible on the five-minute chart. Advdec line hitting what should be strong resistance, but no pullback yet.

Linda Piazza : 10/11/2005 9:33:47 AM

The possibility of a pop-and-drop sets up according to the advdec line. It's only a possibility at this point, with further developments needed, including a quick drop in the advdec line once it hits resistance.

Linda Piazza : 10/11/2005 9:31:50 AM

Advdec line opens and climbs. The OEX opened near the close, and might have a possibility of climbing toward those five-minute 100/130-ema's, but if you didn't jump in quickly to a long play, I think I'd stay my hand here. We're getting the quick ramp up I expected, with the advdec line climbing straight into resistance, and with the possibility of another stall at the 551.50 level too great to risk an entry when the OEX is already approaching 551.

Jonathan Levinson : 10/11/2005 9:30:47 AM

Volume breadth is -3.76:1 on the NYSE, -2:1 on the Nasdaq at the opening bell.

Linda Piazza : 10/11/2005 8:51:04 AM

I noted yesterday morning that the OEX was likely to settle into its usual pattern of moving big and then consolidating for days or weeks in a 4-6-point range. Yesterday's range was from 549.65-553.63, a four-point range. Because futures were higher yesterday morning, it looked as if the OEX would rise first, and then we should look for a bounce-and-rollover entry. That was my suggestion pre-market and that's exactly what happened, but the day proved to be extremely frustrating because the parameters I use to watch for a trade setup just wouldn't come together in the right way. The OEX kept leading the advdec line, so that by the time the setup was there on the advdec line, the move was too far advanced in the OEX and there was never a setup I could recommend to subscribers. Due to the bond-market holiday and the Nikkei's holiday the night before, trade setups needed to be stellar as there was just too much opportunity for a bunch of funny stuff, and there was never a stellar trade setup by the parameters I watch.

Into the close, there was almost a setup for a long play. The advdec line had almost dropped to strong support. The OEX had dropped to Keltner support near 550 and had preserved the Keltner-style bullish divergence, but the factors just didn't quite jell correctly, especially for a play to be held overnight. I had suggested that scalpers use sub-550 levels as entries, but there was never another sub-550 level. While the advdec line was still continuing lower, the OEX began fast-and-furious 1.5-point swings between the 550-ish support and 552-ish resistance. If I'd seen that kind of behavior at the top of a climb, I would have labeled it emotion-based topping behavior, and it could well have been emotion-based bottoming behavior, too, but I'd term that a short-term bottom only. I still think it possible that the OEX might continue its 4-6 point range-building shenanigans another day. The most likely range is from 549.15 on the bottom to 554.83 on the top.

I'll let you know if I see a long play setting up this morning, but remember that this is a wounded market, and countertrend longs tend to be either fast-and-furious and then stall or as quickly reverse, or else they tend to be choppy, impossible to trade moves that tend to collapse at odd times. Only those adept at countertrend plays should be trying longs right now, and they should know ahead of time how they'll treat 552 and then 554.83. I'd advise taking a hefty proportion of your profit as 555 was approached, if it is. Because futures are up so strongly this morning, we could get the fast-and-furious form of rise, and it's possible that it could stall if the OEX is going to maintain that 4-6-point range another day or two . . . or week or two. If the OEX should open near the close and if the advdec line should open and rise sharply, those who are risk-takers could opt for a long entry, but they should be aware that there's nothing yet on the Keltner charts that precludes another dip. Nothing at all as of yet. If the OEX should gap higher and especially if the advdec line should also open near 1100 and then turn down, I wouldn't enter a long at the open automatically, because an open anywhere near 551.50 sets up the possibility of another reversal at the top of that 1.5-point range the OEX was building late yesterday. I'll let you know what I see when the markets open.

Jonathan Levinson : 10/11/2005 8:43:52 AM

Snow, speaking at a press conference at the American embassy in Tokyo, said he will continue to hold private talks with China on its currency.

Treasury officials say China's currency policies are contributing to the record U.S. trade deficit by holding down the exchange rate, making it cheaper for Americans to import Chinese goods than to buy from factories at home. China's holdings of U.S. Treasury notes increased almost five-fold in the past five years, in part because authorities sought to control the yuan's value against the dollar.


Jonathan Levinson : 10/11/2005 8:38:31 AM

Naturally, in keeping with the choppy mess that's been the cycle picture since Thursday's low, the current bounce is premature and counter to the primary intraday cycles. The 30 and 60 min cycle oscillators are still pointing down around the midpoints of their ranges, nowhere near oversold. A short cycle upphase is reaching overbought territory, setting up a potential gap & crap for the cash open. But price is above the 72 SMA here, which spells potential trouble for QQQQ bears: Link

Jonathan Levinson : 10/11/2005 8:26:18 AM

Bonds open in light negative territory, TNX +.5 bps at 4.366%.

Jonathan Levinson : 10/11/2005 7:57:45 AM

Equities are up, ES trading 1194.25, NQ 1561, YM 10297 and QQQQ +.11 at 38.24. Gold is up 50 cents to 478.50, silver -.027 to 7.818, ten year notes +1/16 to 109 51/64, crude oil +.75 at 62.55 and natgas +.07 to a session low of 13.045.

We await the 2PM release of the FOMC minutes from the Sept. 20 meeting.

Linda Piazza : 10/11/2005 7:19:45 AM

Good morning. The Nikkei climbed 2.49% last night, and most other Asian bourses gained, too. European markets see strong gains despite mixed economic data. As of 7:08 EST, gold was unchanged at $478.00, and crude, up $0.70, to $62.50. Our futures were higher. More details about Asian and European markets follows in succeeding paragraphs.

The Nikkei is still trying to make up for last week's drop. Although its September 1-20 trade surplus fell 32.7% year-over year, the Nikkei charged straight up from its open on its way to a 328.97-point or 2.49% gain. The Nikkei closed at 13,556.71, at the bottom of the huge gap down from last Wednesday. That trade surplus release showed that exports rose 5.5% year over year and imports climbed 17.9%. During the trading day, August's key machinery orders were released. Those orders rose far more than the anticipated 2.5%, showing a month-over-month gain of 8.2%. The year-over-year increase of 13.4% also beat the 7.0% forecast.

A newspaper report sent banks higher, after that report suggested that half the amount of the government bailout funds will be repaid by March. Mitsubishi UFJ, Mizuho Financial Group, and Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group were among the banks gaining in early trading. Mitsubishi will probably speed up its repayment schedule by more than a year, with the bank originally intending to repay the funds by 2007. Hitachi and NTT DoCoMo gained on news-related developments, with Hitachi updating on sales for its finger vein authentication systems and NTT saying it would join with Internet shopping mall operator Rakuten Inc. to increase revenue growth. Nintendo wasn't one of the companies whose stocks participated in those early gains, however. It guided sales expectations for the half ending September 30 and for the full year lower. Sanyo also moved lower in early trading after the announcement that its CFO quit over a disagreement with the management policy.

Most other Asian markets gained. With chip-related issues dropping, the Taiwan Weighted wasn't one of the gaining bourses, and it lost 0.25%. South Korea's Kospi gained 1.39% despite an interest-rate hike. The hike was expected. LG Philips LCD reported third-quarter earnings, with profit falling more than expected but earnings increasing over the previous quarter's. Flat-screen TV shipments helped those earnings jump, but they remain below the year-ago level. Posco trimmed its steel output target for the year. Singapore's Straits Times rose 0.50%. Hong Kong's Hang Seng was closed, but China's Shanghai Composite gained 1.60%. Again yesterday, U.S. Treasury Secretary Snow called for China to allow more flexibility in the yuan's trading band. The G20 meeting this weekend will not address yuan flexibility, Snow reiterated along with several others in recent days, but he said he would talk with Chinese officials privately on the matter. After the close, exports for the January-September period were released, showing growth of 31.3% year over year, with high-tech exports driving the number higher. This should keep September's trade surplus high, but perhaps below August's level.

European markets climb this morning. The EU has made a counter-proposal to the U.S.'s concerning the liberalization of farm trade, with both to cut farm subsidies. One article suggests that the EU and U.S. are still in a bargaining stage and the latest proposal is not likely to be the final one. Both the U.S. and EU subsidize farms, with the EU providing much more farm support than the U.S. (Note: this is a report on developments only, and not commentary on those subsidies.) In Germany, September's wholesale price index increased 1.7% month over month and 3.6% year over year. One article notes that this is a volatile number, but that August's number had been puzzlingly weak and that market watchers had expected a rebound due to the influence of crude prices. Tobacco prices also jumped, contributing. Market watchers now look toward next week's PPI, with the WPI hinting that they could see some upward pressure reflected in that number. In France, the August trade deficit narrowed, but was still at levels considered high for France historically. Consumer spending and rising crude prices contributed to the deficit by keeping imports high. Some question now whether net exports might once again subtract from the GDP for the third quarter. In the U.K., the August trade deficit widened from a revised-higher July number. This was a surprise, as the trade deficit had been expected to narrow. In a separate release, one source, SmartNewHomes.com, indicated that property markets were showing some difficult conditions again, with the average prices of new homes down again. Better news came in the form of the September British Retail Consortium figures, with those revealing a 0.8% decline, a less-steep decline than August's 1%.

That retail sales figure and its own earnings report helped send the U.K.'s Marks & Spencer higher by more than 3%. Although CNBC Europe labeled the economic releases as mixed, Roche also helped buoy sentiment after an earnings report by a majority-owned company. It had risen almost 3% earlier in the trading session, to a 52-week high. Roche owns a majority of Genentech and Genentech posted higher-than-anticipated earnings and revenue. In Germany, SAP and Infineon showed strong growth. A Heineken downgrade by UBS to a reduce rating meant that company's stock did not participate in the generalized gains, however. UBS termed the company overweight in developed markets.

As of 7:08 EST, the FTSE 100 was higher by 25.60 points or 0.48%, at 5,400.10. The CAC 40 was higher by 26.61 points or 0.59%, at 4,562.83. The DAX was higher by 33.74 points or 0.67%, at 5,056.53.

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