Option Investor
Printer friendly version
Jeff Bailey : 10/21/2005 2:00:23 AM

QQQQ Option Chain sorted by October open interest. November/December sorted by Thursday's most active roll at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 10/21/2005 12:54:57 AM

Program Trading Levels for Friday ... HL Camp & Company has their computers set for program buying at $+4.91 and set for program selling at $+2.19.

Tab Gilles : 10/21/2005 12:23:39 AM

Energy select sector SPDR (XLE) Chart posted yesterday AM Link Closing chart... Link

Tab Gilles : 10/21/2005 12:11:02 AM

Citrix Systems (CTXS) Back on 7/13 11:25 AM I mentioned to keep CTXS on the radar. It appears to be breaking out. Link Link Shares of Citrix Systems rose 5% after the software company posted third-quarter results that topped forecasts. The company earned $41 million, or 23 cents a share, on sales of $226.9 million. Citrix forecast fourth-quarter adjusted earnings of 30 cents to 32 cents a share, above analysts' average projection of 29 cents.

OI Technical Staff : 10/20/2005 9:59:59 PM

The Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

Disclaimer: Stocks discussed in the Market Monitor are for educational purposes only and any analysis is not meant to imply a recommendation for or against that stock. The analysts in this forum as on any other website are prohibited by the SEC from giving any specific advice to ANY individual trader. All information posted is for ALL readers and is not meant to be directed to any individual. Our analysts cannot answer any email questions regarding any specific stock. Please do not ask and please do not take offense if requests are denied.

Results posted in the Market Monitor are hypothetical and OIN does not claim that any reader achieved these exact results. Due to the lag time between research, writing, posting, uploading, reading and execution there will be differences between the actual signal given and the fill achieved by the reader. Fills may be better or worse but in most cases they will be different. The writers will make every effort to give advance notice of intended signals and indicate potential price targets. Your individual results may vary depending on your activity level and aggressiveness. This forum is intended as an education service only. Trading involves risk and should not be attempted by anyone not ready to accept this risk. By acting on any signal in this forum you agree and personally accept this risk.

Jeff Bailey : 10/20/2005 6:02:31 PM

Large Block #3 another large block trade on the sell side was found today. This time it is Chevron Corp. (CVX) $55.75 -4.43% Link . 6.449 million shares changed hands from $57.72-$57.00 between 10:25 and 10:30 AM EDT.

Jeff Bailey : 10/20/2005 5:57:33 PM

Closing U.S. Market Watch found at this Link ... About the only think that made sense to me today was the trade in the QQQQ.

Rolling to December contracts for Crude Oil, Unleaded, Heating Oil and Natural Gas with today's November expiration of November Crude Oil futures (cl05x), which settled down $1.38, or 2.21% at $61.03.

Jeff Bailey : 10/20/2005 5:43:00 PM

Closing Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 10/20/2005 5:01:41 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles found at this Link

Today's Acitivity ... Stopped out of the naked puts in Valero Energy's VLO Oct. $95 Puts (VLO-VS) at $1.50 ($-0.70, or -87.50%). Stock closes $92.95 -6.09%.

Swing trade stopped on the 1/2 bearish position in KLA-Tencor (KLAC) at $48.55 ($-1.58, or -3.36%). Stock traded a session high of $48.60, finishes $47.92 +0.46%.

Swing traded short 1/2 position in Schlumberger (SLB) at the bid of $80.72. I've adjusted the stop from $82.50 to $82.65 (see KLAC h/o/d) and targeting $77.50.

Linda Piazza : 10/20/2005 4:21:49 PM

Jonathan, just caught your 3:52:23 post. Funny!

Jeff Bailey : 10/20/2005 4:20:53 PM

M-Systems Flash Disk (FLSH) $28.78 -1.94% ... marked higher at $30.65

Jeff Bailey : 10/20/2005 4:19:55 PM

SanDisk (SNDK) $46.38 -2.48% ... surging to $52.83 in extended session on earnings and acquisition news of privately held firm Matrix.

Jonathan Levinson : 10/20/2005 4:08:14 PM

GOOG 325 and climbing.

Jonathan Levinson : 10/20/2005 4:07:48 PM

QQQQ bounces back to 38.41 resistance on a surge in volume: Link

Jonathan Levinson : 10/20/2005 4:06:48 PM

GOOG blasts up to 319 here. Link



[GOOG] GOOGLE Q3 REV $1.58B VS $805.9

Full story at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 10/20/2005 3:55:48 PM

GOOG continues its grind lower, -2.1% here at 302.25. Earnings are scheduled for this afternoon.

Jonathan Levinson : 10/20/2005 3:53:27 PM



Linda Piazza : 10/20/2005 3:52:34 PM

Because this is opex week and Friday trading is not my strongest anyway, I intend to be conservative about offering trade entries tomorrow. The OEX is actually setting up for a bounce tomorrow, but it could be a bounce from a gap below support. Ordinarily, I'd feel comfortable suggesting a trial balloon small bullish position here to avoid amateur-hour inflated options prices, but not on opex week, when those who decide to buy front-month options are going to see a lot of decay overnight. Better to wait and see what sets up tomorrow, if anything.

Jonathan Levinson : 10/20/2005 3:52:22 PM

I can't imagine what it must be like in the Yahoo message boards today. Millennia of civilization no doubt being retraced...

Linda Piazza : 10/20/2005 3:50:25 PM

Advdec line falling back a little from that resistance.

Jonathan Levinson : 10/20/2005 3:50:12 PM

QQQQ 3 day 100-tick chart update at this Link

Linda Piazza : 10/20/2005 3:48:53 PM

Advdec line rising up to test that resistance.

Jeff Bailey : 10/20/2005 3:47:55 PM

NYSE Composite ($NYA.X) 7,230 -1.79% (down 130 points) ... program trading curbs alert.

Jonathan Levinson : 10/20/2005 3:47:07 PM

NYSE curbs in effect. I need to dig up my link on those rules.

Jeff Bailey : 10/20/2005 3:41:19 PM

Sell Program Premium ... DIA $102.97, SPX 1,170.07, QQQQ $38.29 .

Can't keep up

Linda Piazza : 10/20/2005 3:41:49 PM

Some bounce on the OEX, but not matched yet by the advdec line's bounce. Need to see the advdec line above about -2700 before the danger of more declines is lessened. The advdec line is showing that the movement is overdone to the downside, but it was showing the same thing yesterday this time (but to the upside), and I got a four-point spanking (reversed today) when I tried to step in front of that train steaming forward. Bears, you had lots of time to prepare your exit strategy, so adhere to your plans, but, bulls, the OEX is trying to lead the way without confirmation yet from the advdec line and so I'm standing aside just now. Those of you who make trading decisions based on the OEX levels are probably ahead of me into a bullish play, but I see advdec line resistance up to about -2700 and the advdec line hasn't punched above it.

Jeff Bailey : 10/20/2005 3:39:40 PM

Alternating buy/sell program premiums being found.

Jonathan Levinson : 10/20/2005 3:39:11 PM

This has been a very steep bounce- sharper than the decline which preceded it. 38.41 QQQQ held as resistance on the first test.

Jeff Bailey : 10/20/2005 3:37:11 PM

Buy Program Premium ... DIA $103.16, SPX 1,181.19, QQQQ $38.38

Linda Piazza : 10/20/2005 3:34:34 PM

Here's another OEX chart that I've been showing you from time to time. It shows another reason to be careful about assuming that the OEX will absolutely crater now. It shows an envelope that usually stops descents, although there's nothing stopping the OEX from sliding down it, as it has been doing: Link

Jonathan Levinson : 10/20/2005 3:33:33 PM

QQQQ bounces off S1 at 38.12, the 30 and 60 min channels racing to catch up. A break above 38.41 would stall the 30 min cycle downphase. It's worth noting that despite all the action, price has yet to come close to violating the 38-39 range. Link

Jeff Bailey : 10/20/2005 3:28:45 PM

KLA-Tencor (KLAC) $47.68 -0.04% ... inches red.

QQQQ $38.15

Linda Piazza : 10/20/2005 3:27:32 PM

Woulda, coulda, shoulda. I hope that not all of you took the official exit pre-Philly Fed. I'd still do the same thing again for an official trade, as it was the best account-management decision with a release that could have moved the markets either direction, but I sure would have liked to have brought readers along for this whole ride.

If you did stay in a trade, be aware that the OEX is once again approaching the 10/13 and 10/19 lows, of 543.81 and 543.80, respectively, with the OEX at 545.33. I think there's going to be a real effort to maintain the OEX above those levels, whether or not that can be done.

There's also something called a "last bearish engulfing candle" produced after a decline. While it seems outlandish to believe that anything about today could signal a potential reversal, that potential does exist. In addition, I believe that max pain might be near 550, and although I don't greatly believe in the max pain theory, I do watch it. In addition, the advdec line is setting up for the possibility of a bounce early tomorrow morning. Admittedly, that could be a bounce after a gap lower. There's nothing that tells me that for sure.

I wouldn't jump into a bullish trade right now, for sure, but I would make some end-of-day decisions and be on the watch for your exit, if you've decided to exit ahead of the close. If I were going to exit, I'd just keep tightening my stops and following the OEX lower, letting a bounce take me out if one was going to occur.

Jonathan Levinson : 10/20/2005 3:27:14 PM

NYSE breadth is down to -5.88:1, far more intense than the Nasdaq. I doubt if QQQQ will break yesterday's low before the bell, but for the YM it's a lot closer.

Jeff Bailey : 10/20/2005 3:23:14 PM

03:00 Internals found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 10/20/2005 3:22:26 PM

Volume breadth -5.51:1 on the NYSE, -2.27:1 on the Nasdaq.

Jonathan Levinson : 10/20/2005 3:21:09 PM

QQQQ violates lower 30 and 60 min channel support here on the break below 38.30- not to the same degree as yesterday's upside breaks, but this again is very rare divergent activity for these cycles. Link

Jeff Bailey : 10/20/2005 3:18:49 PM

Schlumberger (SLB) $80.02 -2.43% ... quick drop. Break below $80 strike could unravel.

See VLO $92.66 -6.39%

Linda Piazza : 10/20/2005 3:15:19 PM

Some potential bullish divergences showing up now on the advdec line's 15-minute chart, but potential still for the advdec line to fall much deeper, according to the 30-minute chart. I wouldn't step in front of this. I am so mourning my bearish play, exited too early, and I bet you are, too.

Jeff Bailey : 10/20/2005 3:13:53 PM

Novellus (NVLS) $21.59 +1.07% ... mid-point of today's session.

Jonathan Levinson : 10/20/2005 3:13:41 PM

Intraday channel support continues to decline, with confluence from 38.30-.35 next in line if 38.40 lets go: Link

Jonathan Levinson : 10/20/2005 3:11:31 PM

Session lows across the board.

Linda Piazza : 10/20/2005 3:07:41 PM

As long as the advdec line stays beneath about -2500 currently, then the OEX is likely to at least go on rattling between the 50% and 61.8% retracements of yesterday's range, if not drop lower. Bears can use dips to the bottom of that range, if any more come, to exit, if you're worried about the advdec line's reaching stronger resistance or about that coiling formation on the OEX's 15-minute chart. Not sure what to tell you here. The advdec line is reaching support on some charts and the RSI is beginning to indicate overdone levels, but there wasn't bullish value/RSI divergence today as the advdec line fell.

I'd be prepared for a possible early-morning bounce tomorrow, although once again, from what level and how high isn't yet shown. It could be a gap lower and then a bounce up to test the gap, for example.

Jeff Bailey : 10/20/2005 3:04:39 PM

03:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 10/20/2005 3:03:55 PM

QQQQ remains parked 2 cents below 38.50. Volume is surprisingly heavy given the lack of movement and narrow range for the past several hours, 91.7M shares traded today- roughly 3/4 of yesterday's total volume. 30 min channel support has crept down to 38.37- the intraday cycles remain bearish, but "sideways" remains the dominant force more than anything. Link

Jonathan Levinson : 10/20/2005 3:02:03 PM

Ten year notes finish fractionally positive, TNX -.4 bps at 4.459%. IRX finished +.3 bps at 3.76%.

Jonathan Levinson : 10/20/2005 3:00:21 PM

Volume breadth -3.03:1 on the NYSE, -1.95:1 on the Nasdaq.

Linda Piazza : 10/20/2005 2:54:20 PM

Bears shouldn't be too concerned about this OEX bounce just yet. The advdec line is still headed down. It is at next support, however, and is looking overdone to the downside. While there's a chance of a big bounce into the close and the OEX is obviously bouncing, there aren't signs yet that the selling is quite through. Signs that it might be about to be.

Nevertheless, I would protect my profits if still in a bearish play. Honor your stop if it's hit.

Linda Piazza : 10/20/2005 2:45:50 PM

Several writers have talked about max pain today. If I'm guessing correctly, the OEX's max pain level is at 550. I'm not a strong believer in the max-pain theory, but enough of a believer that I wouldn't be surprised to see an effort not to let the OEX get too far outside the 550 level. Remember that the OEX's settlement is different than the SPX's. The OEX options for October continue trading tomorrow and the settlement is at the end of the day, not the beginning.

Jonathan Levinson : 10/20/2005 2:42:36 PM

Full text of Atlanta Fed Chief Jack Guynn's speech at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 10/20/2005 2:38:58 PM

QQQQ's short cycle indicators are gathering in oversold territory, no uptick yet, but within the slowly-rolling 60 min channel. A decline from here could gain momentum as these cycles get in gear, but support at 38.40 and that 38.50 magnet will have to let go first. Link

Jeff Bailey : 10/20/2005 2:37:51 PM

Bearish swing trade short alert for 1/2 position in Schlumberger (SLB) $80.72 -1.58% here, stop $82.50, target $77.50.

Jonathan Levinson : 10/20/2005 2:33:31 PM

Crude oil finished -1.525 at 59.975, natural gas lost .55 to close at 13.31.

Linda Piazza : 10/20/2005 2:32:50 PM

Advdec line still dropping but testing 15-minute support.

Linda Piazza : 10/20/2005 2:28:35 PM

The advdec line is approaching overdone levels now on some charts and approaching the next support level, too, on the 15-minute chart. However, I don't like to act on a signal this far in front of the close, because these things can snowball. So far, if you're still in a bearish position, you're happy to see the further decline, but you need to keep your guard up and protect those profits.

Jeff Bailey : 10/20/2005 2:27:29 PM

02:00 Internals found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 10/20/2005 2:25:57 PM

Session high for ten year notes, retesting the prior print with TNX -.6 bps at 4.457%.

Linda Piazza : 10/20/2005 2:24:38 PM

I thought the OEX would likely bounce at the midpoint of yesterday's range, but it hasn't, so far. Advdec line heading lower.

Perhaps you're having seller's remorse because you opted to exit the official bearish play today before the Philly Fed, but don't. It was the right thing to do at the time. I wish we'd gotten the advdec line bounce up to test resistance before it finally--just now--broke through support, so I could have given another official bearish entry, but that just didn't happen. Don't worry. Trades come along quite often with this, sometimes a couple a day and sometimes just a couple a week, but often enough and most of the trades are profitable.

Jonathan Levinson : 10/20/2005 2:23:56 PM

Session low for the Qs here, NQ finally joining its peers. 30 min channel support lines up with the pivot at 38.40: Link

Jonathan Levinson : 10/20/2005 2:21:36 PM

Sure feels that way, Jeff. They're playing it like a fiddle.

Jeff Bailey : 10/20/2005 2:20:35 PM

I think oil could be at $10 and the QQQQ would probably stay $0.25 either side of $38.50. What about you?

Jeff Bailey : 10/20/2005 2:19:43 PM


Jeff Bailey : 10/20/2005 2:19:06 PM

KLA-Tencor (KLAC) $48.05 +0.72% ... edging back lower now.

Linda Piazza : 10/20/2005 2:17:25 PM

And there was the OEX 548.80 level that I thought the OEX might hit. Bears, keep in mind that this is the powerful mid-point of yesterday's big range and that the OEX is still within that potential bull flag. It's not yet as bearish as it feels, so keep guarding those profits.

Jeff Bailey : 10/20/2005 2:15:46 PM

Valero Energy (VLO) $94.12 -4.91% ... sets up for test of yesterday morning's spike session low.

I've had my fill of "Max Pain" today ....

Jonathan Levinson : 10/20/2005 2:14:33 PM

New lows from ES and YM, but QQQQ is not participating, holding that 38.55 level: Link

Jonathan Levinson : 10/20/2005 2:13:09 PM

Ten year notes just printed a high here at 109 3/16, with TNX down to a 1 bp loss at 4.453%. IRX holds fractionally green at 3.76%. TNX continues top chop sideways between 4.443% and 4.57%, with the daily cycle trending in overbought. The price trend is up, while the daily cycle is very toppy. A break of either end of the range should determine the direction of the next leg for ten year note yields. Link

Jeff Bailey : 10/20/2005 2:11:34 PM

I would think "bearish" trade action would be the $47.50 Calls (KCQ-JT) seeing volume at the bid. Current volume just 57 contracts. The Oct. $50 Puts a little heavier, but really light at 103 contracts.

Jeff Bailey : 10/20/2005 2:09:17 PM

KLA-Tencor (KLAC) $48.22 +1.09% ... just kissed DAILY R1 after holding mid-point of sessions range. It would be a trade like this where I'd watch those $47.50 and $50.00 strikes. Nothing happened on the volume side of the options on the way UP, will something happen now just below a level that computers may be set to trade.

Linda Piazza : 10/20/2005 2:11:09 PM

The OEX's five-minute 100/130-ema's are now resistance; the ten-minute versions support. The ten-minute versions are at 549.75 and 549.62, respectively, with the OEX closing ten-minute periods above or at them so far. Bears need to break through that support.

Jeff Bailey : 10/20/2005 2:06:42 PM

02:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 10/20/2005 2:05:03 PM

Advdec line headed down again. It's approaching next support, in the -2350 level, with the advdec line at -2225 as I type, QCharts value. Still doing okay if you didn't exit that official bearish OEX play, but there's still a lot of potential support to work through. OEX 548.80 (50% retracement of the rally yesterday) remains possible, but perhaps not probable yet. Keep lowering those stops.

Jeff Bailey : 10/20/2005 2:02:38 PM

KLA Tencor (KLAC) $48.15 +0.94% ... mid-point of today's session.

Jonathan Levinson : 10/20/2005 2:02:22 PM

ES and YM testing their lows, QQQQ down to 38.56 here, 5 cents above the bottom of the declining flag/channel: Link

Jeff Bailey : 10/20/2005 2:01:32 PM

KLA-Tencor (KLAC) $48.27 +1.19% ... intra-day chart at this link. I was checking my "dynamic" at saw KLAC traded my adjusted stop. Will add new observation that DAILY R2 very close to a mid-point of $47.50-$50.00 strike. Chart at this Link

Linda Piazza : 10/20/2005 2:00:03 PM

The OEX rose back to test the five-minute 100-ema from the underside. So far, that's holding as resistance, with that average at 550.27, but the OEX is still testing it. I don't see any alarming strength in the advdec line yet, but it's still kind of clinging to last support, not really violating it. It's been doing that all day as it traveled down, though, so if you're in a bearish play, you're still doing okay but need to be aware of the potential for a bounce.

Jeff Bailey : 10/20/2005 1:52:15 PM

Swing trade bearish stopped alert ... I had an electronic alert set on KLA-Tencor (KLAC) $48.25 +1.15% ... at my adjusted stop of $48.55 and it didn't sound/flash on my QCharts. KLAC did trade $48.60 and it doesn't look like a bad tick.

Bearish swing trade stopped alert at $48.55.

Jonathan Levinson : 10/20/2005 1:44:56 PM

Volume breadth -2.09:1 on the NYSE, -1.24:1 on the Nasdaq.

Jeff Bailey : 10/20/2005 1:46:00 PM

Applied Materials (AMAT) $17.18 +0.31% ... Option chain sorted by October open interest at this Link ...

KLAC much "stronger" $48.33 +1.32% ... Observations certainly depict that of option expiration don't they? Two VERY SIMILAR stocks, notable difference today.

Linda Piazza : 10/20/2005 1:44:50 PM

Advdec line threatening to break support again. The OEX has just closed a five-minute period below its five-minute 100/130-ema's, for the first time since yesterday afternoon, but it's zooming right back up to retest them. This is the prime stop-running time of day, so be careful. If you're still in a bearish play, you're liking this so far, though.

Jonathan Levinson : 10/20/2005 1:40:32 PM

The NOAA reports that it expects this winter to be 6.5% colder than last year, but last year was an abnormally warm winter. By its calculations, this winter will be .7% warmer than average.

Jeff Bailey : 10/20/2005 1:40:18 PM

Sell Program Premium ... DIA $103.77, SPX 1,188.06, QQQQ $38.61

Jonathan Levinson : 10/20/2005 1:32:39 PM

Zooming out to a 3-day 100-tick view, we see the price holding it's possible bull flag here above 38.50. Price is looking heavier as the short cycle upphase gets weak traction. But the 60 min cycle channel has stopped short of rolling over, now drifting sideways. The 38.50-.70 QQQQ range remains key. Link

Linda Piazza : 10/20/2005 1:30:27 PM

Right now, the OEX is just testing, testing, the 549.50-550-ish support, support from several means. On the five-minute advdec chart, the support attempts to firm, but I'm just thinking that's suggesting a climb up to test that strong resistance in the -1300 to -900 zone, rather than a sustained climb. In fact, I'm wishing that it had done that already, relieving some overdone pressure and giving a new tentative bearish signal, as I think there's the possibility (but not probability) of the OEX dropping to 548.80 or so, okay for a scalping move with a high-delta option if the OEX had climbed a bit with an advdec line bounce, too. Unfortunately, it's not giving any kind of signal right now. If the Philly Fed hadn't intervened and we'd stayed in a play, I'd still be feeling fairly comfortable with it, with the potential for the advdec line to drop further, but I'd be warning about the possibility of a bounce first. So far, no bounce.

Jeff Bailey : 10/20/2005 1:20:22 PM

01:00 Internals found at this Link

Wednesday's Internals found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 10/20/2005 1:18:46 PM

Ten year noes have firmed, approaching their best levels of the session, TNX down to a .2 bp gain at 4.465%. IRX is down .2 bps here at 3.755%.

Jonathan Levinson : 10/20/2005 1:14:07 PM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- The Federal Reserve should continue pushing interest rates higher at a gradual pace despite the effects on the economy from the two hurricanes that struck the Gulf Coast region in August and September, said Jack Guynn, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. "Our gradual course has been far preferable to pausing and risking more drastic --and painful --- moves later," Guynn said in a speech prepared for delivery to a business group in Atlanta on Thursday. Guynn said the storms have not changed "our mostly positive economic path." The risks of inflation are elevated, but Guynn said he thought today's inflation pressures will turn out to be "mostly temporary."

Linda Piazza : 10/20/2005 1:11:22 PM

I take that back. The five-minute nested Keltner chart is giving a tentative buy signal (bullish value/RSI divergence, a Keltner support level tentatively holding) but I don't base the decisions on the five-minute chart, not with significant resistance in the -1350 to -900 zone. Advdec line at -1724 currently, QCharts value.

Jonathan Levinson : 10/20/2005 1:09:45 PM

QQQQ tests 38.70 here on rising volume, with volume breadth up to +1.02:1 on the Nasdaq: Link

Linda Piazza : 10/20/2005 1:09:12 PM

OEX testing the top of that flag-like formation. If you're basing your decisions on OEX behavior alone, an upside break out of that flag would be a bullish signal you'd typically take, but I'm just not getting a signal by my parameters and so I'm not going to recommend it (or take it myself). The OEX hasn't broken out anyway. Not yet. It's just testing.

Linda Piazza : 10/20/2005 1:06:35 PM

Jane suggested that I show you the advdec line setup for this morning's trade. Good idea, Jane. Thanks. Link Note that the advdec line is below resistance, but not yet at support and RSI isn't yet signaling that it's overdone to the upside. No bullish signal here. Not yet. Doesn't mean that the OEX might not climb straight from here--the five-minute chart sure looks bullish overall--but there's just no signal by the parameters that I use.

Jeff Bailey : 10/20/2005 1:04:03 PM

01:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 10/20/2005 1:00:36 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 10/20/2005 12:59:43 PM

Crude oil is back above 60, down 1.40 at 60.10. The low was 59.325.

Linda Piazza : 10/20/2005 12:52:36 PM

What we're seeing on the OEX's five-minute chart looks like a pretty classic bull flag pullback. Link However, the advdec line isn't giving me a strong signal for a bullish entry, either, with the opportunity for it to still drop at least into the -2300 zone and maybe deeper.

Jonathan Levinson : 10/20/2005 12:50:43 PM

The wavelet cycle is starting to trend as the short cycle begins to turn up for QQQQ, but price continues to respect the channel trendline. This is classic op-ex stuff, but so close to the highs, it's an impressive show of bullish strength after yesterday's quick sharp run. Link

Tab Gilles : 10/20/2005 12:45:38 PM

Pfizer (PFE) Link

Linda Piazza : 10/20/2005 12:43:12 PM

I'm not getting any signals right now, but the OEX is bouncing around above the 15-minute 100/130-ema's and all that other potential support in the 549.50-550-ish level. It's closing 15-minute periods above the 38.2% retracement of yesterday's rally and it's pullback so far looks bull flag-like, but the advdec line hasn't sunk low enough to give me any bullish signals, either. It still looks vulnerable to further declines. Right now, I'd guess that those declines would probably just keep the OEX testing that support, but it could break through it, too.

Tab Gilles : 10/20/2005 12:40:29 PM

$INDU Link

Jonathan Levinson : 10/20/2005 12:37:20 PM

QQQQ tests the top of its descending channel here, 38.69-.70: Link

Linda Piazza : 10/20/2005 12:32:42 PM

Stepping away for a few minutes.

Linda Piazza : 10/20/2005 12:28:27 PM

OEX Trade Information
I wanted to explain a little bit about my trading system. I enter and exit trades based mostly on a Keltner-based study of the advdec line. It's problematic for posting on the MM for several reasons. They're almost always profitable (just completed my 13th profitable trade in a row this morning when I exited today, for example, and out of the last 28 trades, only three have been losses, with two of those just losing part of the commissions), but because they're based on the movements of the advdec line, they sometimes get me in the trade way too early and the plays go very, very wrong before they go right. For example, I actually entered this play yesterday, when the OEX was much lower, but when the advdec line set up the play. It went badly against me as far as the OEX level was concerned before it turned around, but the advdec line never erased the signal and so I stayed in. It was touch-and-go for me to collect a profit today, and you probably did better than I did because I got you in later, with the OEX nearer the high reached yesterday. The other problem is that the profits are sometimes small as they're scalping moves. The whole system is backwards, with the winners often small and the trades often going badly in the hole before they turn profitable.

That's okay for me to trade that way because I'm risking a very small percentage of my trading account on these trades and I've been testing them for several months now and feel comfortable. I don't know if readers are doing that and don't think it's really ethical to teach readers to let a trade go so badly against them without exiting.

And, of course, my basis on entering and exiting makes it problematic to set a stop. My stop might be on an advdec line move above or below a certain Keltner line, which in itself is dynamic and moving, so how am I going to give you a stop? I can do the "get in now," "get out now" thing without any explanations, but that's not a good solution on the MM, either. Sometimes these advdec line trades set up when the OEX just appears to be in the middle of nowhere, with no good stop for me to offer you, and yet they turn out profitable. So, when a trade setup appears sound and when there's a nearby stop I can offer, I'll call the trade, but there will be times I'm trading alone, as I can't offer that stop. If you're reading my posts, however, you'll see me occasionally post an "if you're an aggressive OEX trader" without an official banner. I've been doing it for months, and I'm only doing this officially now because a trusted fellow trader told me that the comments are sometimes missed. I'm usually in that trade I'm suggesting unofficially, too, although not if my family circumstances here don't allow me to follow it carefully enough, and you can follow along if you want, but those won't be official trades.

Jonathan Levinson : 10/20/2005 12:20:07 PM

Volume breadth -1.65:1 on the NYSE, -1.41:1 on the Nasdaq.

Jeff Bailey : 10/20/2005 12:18:26 PM

12:00 Internals found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 10/20/2005 12:16:42 PM

QQQQ has double bottomed in the 38.51-.52 area, so far a very sideways decline off the high this morning. However, it's not purely bullish: the 60 min cycle always takes longer to turn and often results in a sideways range for the first stages of the 30 min cycle downphase which precedes it. So far, this could well be a bull flag, but the bulls need to hold above the declining support line, currently at 38.50: Link

Linda Piazza : 10/20/2005 12:11:11 PM

Should have held over, but that's just too risky of an endeavor, especially for a first time that I've covered an OEX play recently. The OEX approaches the 549.50-ish support from various source. One important source are the 15-minute 100/130-ema's at 549.50 and 549.60.

Jonathan Levinson : 10/20/2005 12:09:30 PM

Here it is:

Higher Prices Reported Firms continued to report higher production costs this month. The current prices paid index rose 15 points, following an increase of 27 points in September, and is now at its highest reading since November 1980. Sixty-eight percent of the manufacturers reported higher prices for inputs, up from 57 percent last month. No firms reported declines in input prices.

Full report at this Link

Linda Piazza : 10/20/2005 12:08:38 PM

Must have been some inflated expectations for that Philly Fed number! So far the reaction is negative, but only to send the OEX down to retest the day's low. The advdec line still creeps lower, but still does it slowly enough to push its support lower, too, so there's still no break. If you elected to say in a bearish play over the Philly Fed number, then you're glad to see it still creeping lower, but you need more. The OEX currently tests the three-minute 100/130-ema's that prompted the earlier bounce, and it needs to fall beneath those, at 550.96 and 550.58, respectively. There's so much support in the 549.50-550-ish zone, from MA's, Keltner lines, etc., that the OEX probably is going to need to plunge through that support or else just sit here for hours and hours until it dissipates. Otherwise, it's going to be hard to pierce.

Jonathan Levinson : 10/20/2005 12:07:04 PM

New session low for gold, -3.6 at 462.20. Crude oil -1.675 at 59.825, 50 cents above today's low.

Jonathan Levinson : 10/20/2005 12:06:24 PM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Manufacturing activity rebounded in the Philadelphia region in October, the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia saied Thursday. The Philly Fed index rose to 17.3 in October from 2.2 in September, ahead of the 10.4 expected by economists. Readings over zero indicate growth. New orders improved to 18.6 from negative 0.5. Shipments rose to 19.5 from 13.2. Prices received increased to 32.6 from 8.6, while prices paid rose to 67.6 from 52.7.

Jeff Bailey : 10/20/2005 12:06:04 PM

12:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 10/20/2005 12:05:51 PM



Jonathan Levinson : 10/20/2005 12:05:39 PM

I'm hearing that the "Prices Paid" component set a 25 year high, but I'm trying to find confirmation.

Linda Piazza : 10/20/2005 12:03:33 PM

OEX Trade Recap
Entry @ 552.55. First profit 550.85. Second profit 550.85.

As you can see, this was just a scalping move, and it required an ITM option to make a profit. I can't tell you whether or how much profit the play should have garnered because that depends on the option the trader chose and on the trader's skill at getting between the bid and ask. And on the market maker's generosity. Perhaps you did not make any profit at all, especially since the play was entered near the open when the options prices were inflated. However, the 560 put was 7.40 x 8.00 at the time of entry and 8.70 x 9.50 at the time of the last exit, so a profit should have been available to those with ITM options.

Jonathan Levinson : 10/20/2005 12:03:17 PM






Jeff Bailey : 10/20/2005 12:02:11 PM

Sell Program Premium ... DIA $104.04, SPX 1,190.49, QQQQ $38.65

Jonathan Levinson : 10/20/2005 12:01:32 PM

Awaiting the details.

Jonathan Levinson : 10/20/2005 12:01:16 PM

Philly Fed 17.3 vs. 10 exp.

Tab Gilles : 10/20/2005 12:00:43 PM

$SPX Link $VIX Link

Linda Piazza : 10/20/2005 11:58:45 AM

Thanks, Mark.

Linda Piazza : 10/20/2005 11:56:04 AM

OEX Trade Exit Point Alert
Exit the rest of the position now, with the OEX at 550.85 and with the Philly Fed due in a few minutes.

At its LOD, the OEX was bouncing from its three-minute 100-ema. That's now risen to 550.97 with the 130-ema on that time period at 550.57 and right at our automatic profit stop. The three-minute 100/130-ema's do have much congruence with the OEX's action, so the 550.55 level might not quite be touched. Still watching.

Jonathan Levinson : 10/20/2005 11:54:15 AM

The 100-tick Macd is failing here below the zero line. So far, the upturn in QQQQ's short cycle upphase is proving itself a dud: Link

Linda Piazza : 10/20/2005 11:51:23 AM

Advdec line still dropping, but clinging to that last support that it's pushing lower with it since its decline is so gentle. Needs a sharper decline.

Jonathan Levinson : 10/20/2005 11:46:27 AM

Bonds remain negative here, TNX up 1.5 bps at 4.478% and IRX up 2 bps at 3.777%.

Linda Piazza : 10/20/2005 11:44:50 AM

Advdec line still dropping. OEX needs to keel over, too.

Linda Piazza : 10/20/2005 11:39:23 AM

RLX still near the HOD. It did a little downturn, but as is so often true of the RLX, it turned around and zoomed higher again. You can't stomp out a rally in this thing, it seems sometimes. Lots of bearish divergences showing up, but doesn't matter so far.

Jonathan Levinson : 10/20/2005 11:38:51 AM

So far, QQQQ's bounce is just reflecting itself on the 100-tick wavelet cycle, but above 38.70, the short cycle indicators should begin to turn up: Link . With the 30 min channel top at 38.80, however, we could be looking at a short/sideways upphase on the move above 38.70.

Linda Piazza : 10/20/2005 11:37:31 AM

OEX bears want to see the OEX continue to find resistance on 15-minute closes at a Keltner line currently at 551.86. The OEX is currently at 551.85, testing that line. As long as it continues those closes beneath that Keltner line, it remains vulnerable to a drop to 550.69 and possibly 549.51-549.86.

Jonathan Levinson : 10/20/2005 11:37:20 AM

Session low for Dec gold here, -2.50 at 463.30 with silver -.014 at 7.626. Crude oil is down 2.10 now at 59.40, natgas -.71 at 13.15.

Jeff Bailey : 10/20/2005 11:36:49 AM

Valero Energy (VLO) $94.21 -4.81%

Jeff Bailey : 10/20/2005 11:36:26 AM

Naked put stop alert on the Valero Energy VLO Oct. $95 Put (VLO-VS) $1.50.

Tab Gilles : 10/20/2005 11:35:53 AM

Energy Select Sector SPDR (XLE) Watch 445 level. Link

Linda Piazza : 10/20/2005 11:35:03 AM

OEX Trade Exit Point Alert
I'd rather not hold this play open over the Philly Fed release. Take profit on the rest of the position at 550.55, if reached pre-Philly Fed. This was intended as a scalping play only. If that's not reached pre-Philly Fed, I'll reassess in a little while. If you're not scared of risks, go ahead and hold over since you've taken partial profits, but there's lots of potential support in the 549.50-550 zone, and lots of potential to bounce from that again. I'm not sure it will, and the Philly Fed release could send everything lower again, plunging through support levels, but it could also bounce the markets and I don't want to put your money at risk in an official trade.

Jeff Bailey : 10/20/2005 11:30:15 AM

QQQQ $38.65 -0.05% ...

Jeff Bailey : 10/20/2005 11:29:49 AM

Bearish swing trade adjust stop alert ... for KLA-Tencor (KLAC) to $48.55. $48.50 here.

Jonathan Levinson : 10/20/2005 11:25:59 AM

Note the bullish Macd divergence in the chart just posted at 11:23- if QQQQ can break back above 38.70, it should be enough to turn it up and confirm the bullish divergent signal. For now, it's just a potential setup.

Jeff Bailey : 10/20/2005 11:25:12 AM

11:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 10/20/2005 11:24:09 AM

Volume breadth is down to -1.65:1 on the NYSE, -1.35:1 on the Nasdaq.

Linda Piazza : 10/20/2005 11:24:00 AM

The OEX looks vulnerable to 549.73-549.84 as long as it's producing five-minute closes beneath a Keltner line currently at 551.35. OeX at 551.07 as I type.

Jonathan Levinson : 10/20/2005 11:23:41 AM

Back. QQQQ printed a nominal new low to 38.52, just above resistance from yesterday that broke on the 3:30PM surge. 30 min channel support drops to 38.40 as the 30 min channel begins to roll over. Link

Jeff Bailey : 10/20/2005 11:23:34 AM

Valero Energy (VLO) $95.00 -4.01% ... WEEKLY S1 $95.25 , S2 $89.25.

Jeff Bailey : 10/20/2005 11:22:50 AM

Oil Service Index (OSX.X) 153.49 -2.85% ... testing WEEKLY S1 here.

Linda Piazza : 10/20/2005 11:22:37 AM

Advdec line is dropping, still, but so is support, right along with it. It hasn't broken through that final support. The good news is that the support that it did sink beneath is now firming up as possible resistance.

Jane Fox : 10/20/2005 11:21:57 AM

Linda emailed me yesterday and told me she expected a pullback this morning and was the reason she put on a bearish position. She was right again.

Linda Piazza : 10/20/2005 11:20:49 AM

OEX Trade Exit Point Alert
Lower stop on the rest of the position to 553.55, just above the 38.2% retracement of the decline off the 10/3 high.

Jane Fox : 10/20/2005 11:20:44 AM

Linda I am so happy you are officially posting your trades. For all you readers out there I have been trying to convince Linda for ages to do this because she is one heck of an OEX trader.

Tab Gilles : 10/20/2005 11:20:21 AM

Murphy Oil (MUR) Keep watch on the 100- weekly ema and Fibonacci Retracment. Setting stop @ $41 level. My viewpoint is that as the thermostat drops below 32F, and the furnaces kick on, oil will rise. Link Link

Linda Piazza : 10/20/2005 11:18:31 AM

OEX Trade Exit Point Alert
Take partial profit here, at OEX 550.85.

Linda Piazza : 10/20/2005 11:16:45 AM

Advdec line dropping. Needs to drop further, though. Believe it or not, the opportunity for a bounce still exists, although it's less than it was previously.

Linda Piazza : 10/20/2005 11:15:57 AM

Wow, an OEX 15-minute close below the support at 551.98. Another good point for OEX bears.

Linda Piazza : 10/20/2005 11:14:29 AM

OEX Trade Exit Point Alert
OEX again at a slightly new LOD. The advdec line is still not breaking support, however. If you're a conservative trader, this is another opportunity for you to get out. OEX at 551.75 as I type.

Jeff Bailey : 10/20/2005 11:14:06 AM

Valero Energy (VLO) alert $95.03 -4% ... VLO-VS trading $1.20 here. Stop is firm at $1.50. I did see what looks like a covered call seller of the Nov. $95 Calls earlier this morning.

Linda Piazza : 10/20/2005 11:11:45 AM

RLX still near the HOD.

Linda Piazza : 10/20/2005 11:11:08 AM

OEX still finding support on the Keltner line currently at 552.17 on 15-minute closes. It needs to lose that support. It's testing it as I type, but there are still several minutes left in this 15-minute period. OEX at 552.23. By the way, that's right under the one-minute 100-ema at 552.36, with the OEX having come up to retest it after a first one-minute close beneath the 100/130-ema's on that chart.

Jeff Bailey : 10/20/2005 11:07:23 AM

11:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 10/20/2005 11:06:18 AM

RLX still holding near its HOD. Going to be difficult for the OEX to retreat too far until the RLX does, too.

OEX testing those one-minute 100/130-ema's, and actually just had a first one-minute close below them for the day. Smile. It was only a cent or so below them. Still testing, and a one-minute -ema is not anything definitive for the day, but I'm watching for any changes in tenor.

Linda Piazza : 10/20/2005 11:02:56 AM

Remember the Philly Fed in an hour.

Linda Piazza : 10/20/2005 11:02:20 AM

Lots more interesting to watch all this on a one- or two-minute chart. You feel as if something big is happening rather than this churning action. So far today, the OEX has not closed a one-minute period below both its 100- and 130-ema's, with those at 552.38 and 552.15, respectively. It's tested them during the 10:21-10:43 period several times, always bouncing from them, and now it's coming down to test them again. OEX at 552.48 as I type. Advdec line still challenging that support.

Jonathan Levinson : 10/20/2005 11:01:01 AM

Stepping away for a couple of minutes.

Linda Piazza : 10/20/2005 10:59:08 AM

RLX retesting its previous HOD, just a little above it, and that may tell the tale for the OEX. There's tentative but marked bearish divergence on the RLX's three-minute chart as that high is retested, but you know how much to trust the RLX's bearish divergences when it's on a roll--not at all.

Linda Piazza : 10/20/2005 10:52:29 AM

Advdec line not climbing much, but the OEX is climbing more. Thirty-minute resistance at 553.89 on 15-minute closes.

Jeff Bailey : 10/20/2005 10:51:59 AM

QQQQ $38.73

Jeff Bailey : 10/20/2005 10:51:38 AM

VXN.X alert 15.51 -0.25% ... WEEKLY S1 here.

Linda Piazza : 10/20/2005 10:49:51 AM

Must be the big caps they're trying to hold up today, as the advdec line sure isn't good, but the OEX is holding up relatively well during it all. Too well for our liking. That's the reason that I suggested that conservative bears might exit when the OEX was near its LOD. They still probably would have incurred some small commission losses. For the rest of us, the advdec line's support is no longer so clear, with support and resistance now looking about equal. While the OEX might withstand a downdraft in the advdec line better than other indices today, it will still eventually succumb if that advdec line support fails to hold. Just a matter now of seeing whether it does or not. The OEX is about at the entry level now. Advdec line at -1188, trying to bounce, and support now down to -1430 or so, with resistance now up to about -900.

Jonathan Levinson : 10/20/2005 10:49:00 AM

QQQQ continues to work on the range, sliding sideways without a retest of the 38.58 low. The short cycle downphase hasn't aborted since it kicked off at the highs, but it's losing traction in a hurry. Link

Linda Piazza : 10/20/2005 10:45:53 AM

The OEX is closing another 15-minute period below the Keltner resistance at 552.70, but above the support at 552.10, all on 15-minute closes, and it's headed right up to test the resistance again as I type. As long as it's closing above that support line, it's going to keep doing so.

Jonathan Levinson : 10/20/2005 10:44:40 AM

Volume breadth -1.35:1 on both the NYSE and the Nasdaq.

Linda Piazza : 10/20/2005 10:44:32 AM

Advdec line support has now dropped down to -1430 or so, with the advdec line now at -1292, QCharts value. It's good for our bearish play that it's still dropping, but it needs to completely violate that support. So far, so good. Unfortunately, the OEX isn't dropping along with it, but it will if the advdec line keeps falling.

Tab Gilles : 10/20/2005 10:40:14 AM

Projection on $NDX- nearterm run upto 1600, within the confines of a downtrending channel. Link

Linda Piazza : 10/20/2005 10:40:08 AM

It looks to me as if the advdec line support is actually firming. We'll soon see, though, as the advdec line is dropping again to test that support.

Linda Piazza : 10/20/2005 10:35:33 AM

OEX bouncing ahead of the advdec line, leading it as it has been tending to do lately. It's bouncing up to test 15-minute Keltner resistance, currently at 552.67 on 15-minute closes, with the OEX currently at 552.63. Bears obviously want this resistance to hold. The retest was expected as per my previous posts, so not alarming, although I'm not liking it particularly.

Jonathan Levinson : 10/20/2005 10:35:19 AM





Jonathan Levinson : 10/20/2005 10:33:55 AM

From the EIA website:

Working gas in storage was 3,062 Bcf as of Friday, October 14, 2005, according to EIA estimates. This represents a net increase of 75 Bcf from the previous week. Stocks were 152 Bcf less than last year at this time and 53 Bcf above the 5-year average of 3,009 Bcf. In the East Region, stocks were 19 Bcf above the 5-year average following net injections of 45 Bcf. Stocks in the Producing Region were 8 Bcf below the 5-year average of 828 Bcf after a net injection of 24 Bcf. Stocks in the West Region were 41 Bcf above the 5-year average after a net addition of 6 Bcf. At 3,062 Bcf, total working gas is within the 5-year historical range.

Jonathan Levinson : 10/20/2005 10:31:18 AM

The natural gas report is due out now, and I don't yet have the data- but natgas is down 5.01% or .695 to 13.165, off a lower low of 13.14. Crude oil is making a new low at 60.25, -1.25.

Linda Piazza : 10/20/2005 10:31:14 AM

The OEX has closed a 15-minute period below the Keltner line currently at 552.61, but so far maintains support at the one at 551.94, all on 15-minute closes, so might continue to test resistance . . . and it's doing so as I type.

Jonathan Levinson : 10/20/2005 10:30:22 AM

QQQQ trades heavily below 38.66, sliding sideways above the 38.58 low. It has a right shoulder look to it, but by the same token, the initial selling has slowed considerably. The 30 min channel has already flattened, but it will take a break of the 72 SMA at 38.50 to confirm the current weakness. Link

Linda Piazza : 10/20/2005 10:29:45 AM

OEX Trade Exit Point Alert
While I'm not alarmed about the development of this trade, the advdec line has so far held support and that continues the possibility that it could bounce and bring the OEX higher, too. Conservative traders among you might take an exit now, as the OEX is dropping to a slight new low and the advdec line again tests that support.

Linda Piazza : 10/20/2005 10:24:20 AM

OEX headed down to a test of a Keltner line at 551.87 and bears certainly want a 15-minute close beneath that line. It may well be support on the first test, however. OEX at 551.87 as I type. So far, so good, but the advdec line needs to drop through that support.

Linda Piazza : 10/20/2005 10:22:42 AM

Slight new LOD for the OEX. Be aware that the pullback still looks bull flag-ish and the advdec line is still just testing likely strong support.

Linda Piazza : 10/20/2005 10:19:19 AM

Advdec line attempting to bounce, and it will bring the OEX back up with it, if it's successful. Bears want to see it stopped at about -600 to -350, but certainly below +560 to 750. It's at -840 as I type, QCharts value.

Jonathan Levinson : 10/20/2005 10:17:22 AM

Session lows for oil and natgas here at 60.75 and 13.50. Ten year notes continue to recover, TNX down to a .8 bp gain at 4.471%. The 13-week bill rate is down to 3.75%, -.7 bps.

Jeff Bailey : 10/20/2005 10:16:27 AM

10:00 Internals found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 10/20/2005 10:15:08 AM

The OEX looks as if it will close this 15-minute period at rather than significantly below the Keltner support at 552.49 on 15-minute closes. It's at 552.40 as I type, so essentially holding to that support. Bears want it to fail and then for the OEX to produce 15-minute closes beneath 551.78. Until all that happens, the chance of another bounce up to 30-minute resistance at 553.74 on 30-minute closes continues.

Linda Piazza : 10/20/2005 10:13:31 AM

Advdec line pausing at deepest support before support thins. Could be a bounce attempt here unless it pushes through deeper. It's at -1229 as I type, in that zone I've been mentioning.

Jonathan Levinson : 10/20/2005 10:11:58 AM

Crude oil reopens off its lows, -.40 here at 61.10. Natgas is -.355 at a session low of 13.505.

Linda Piazza : 10/20/2005 10:10:48 AM

Advdec line still dropping, but now deeper into possible support. Needs to keep going lower. It's at -1237 as I type.

Linda Piazza : 10/20/2005 10:10:20 AM

BIX pulling back to the boundary of its former broadening formation after trying to pierce it.

Jonathan Levinson : 10/20/2005 10:10:12 AM

Session lows across the board, the short cycle rolling over for the first time since yesterday morning. QQQQ's 72 SMA is at 38.40, and if it breaks, we'll get a bearish divergent sell signal for the 30 min cycle. Link

Linda Piazza : 10/20/2005 10:09:55 AM

RLX has drawn back below its 200-sma. There's much opportunity for a doji day today, a choppy day, so we have to be watchful for that possibility.

Linda Piazza : 10/20/2005 10:07:18 AM

Advdec line support still being tested. Still a dangerous point for bears, as it could bounce from that support. Need to see it below about -1300 now. It's at -918.

Linda Piazza : 10/20/2005 10:05:56 AM

Next thing the OEX bears need is a 15-minute cclose beneath a Keltner line currently at 552.45, and preferably below the one currently at 551.83. However, that top line is likely to go on providing support for a little longer. OEX at 552.73 as I type.

Jonathan Levinson : 10/20/2005 10:05:09 AM

Make it 3, Mark.

Jeff Bailey : 10/20/2005 10:04:45 AM

10:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 10/20/2005 10:04:03 AM

For the first time since about 1:10 yesterday afternoon, the OEX had begun closing five-minute periods below a Keltner line currently at 552.82, and it's testing that this current five-minute period, currently a little above it at 552.94, testing further five-minute Keltner resistance at 553.02 on 15-minute closes. So far, so good. No downside traction yet, but chart characteristics holding okay.

Jonathan Levinson : 10/20/2005 10:01:44 AM

Ten year notes are trying to firm, TNX down to a 2.5 bp gain at 4.488%, IRX flat at 3.757%.

Linda Piazza : 10/20/2005 10:01:32 AM

Advdec line testing support. If it falls through about -1200, then the bearish play will gain some traction. If it bounces again, we're back to biting our nails. (Not really.)

Jonathan Levinson : 10/20/2005 10:00:35 AM







Jeff Bailey : 10/20/2005 9:59:37 AM

Coca Cola (KO) $42.82 +2.44% Link ... World's largest beverage maker said Q3 earnings rose 37% to $1.28 billion, or $0.54 a share compared to $935 million or $0.39 for the same period last year. Excluding items, Coke sait it earned $1.36 billion, or $0.57, which was above consensus estimates for $0.53.

Revenue was up 8% to $6.04 billion, compared to revenue of $5.6 billion in the same period last year.

Jonathan Levinson : 10/20/2005 9:59:05 AM

The Fed adds a 4.5B overnight repo, which results in a net 250M add for the day. The treasury-collateral stop out rate dropped to 3.71 with this operation.

Linda Piazza : 10/20/2005 9:57:46 AM

Advdec line again approaching the support that held it up earlier. Danger point for the bearish play.

Jonathan Levinson : 10/20/2005 9:57:41 AM

Volume breadth -1.18:1 on the NYSE, -1.15:1 on the Nasdaq.

Jonathan Levinson : 10/20/2005 9:56:22 AM

Here's the break. A clear weakness in my system is that once price begins to trend, both in terms of the various oscillators as well as std-deviation and true-range bands I follow, there's simply no way to apply trades with a reliable stop. I can see that the move is "deviant" and highly likely to reverse, but I can only guess as to the price. And so, we're stopped out of a directional trade minutes before what appears to be a significant reversal of the move. Link

Linda Piazza : 10/20/2005 9:55:36 AM

OEX Entry Point Alert
Enter put position, stop 554.15, or 30-minute close above 553.66. I'll be using the 554.15 for the official stop.

Linda Piazza : 10/20/2005 9:49:59 AM

RLX still climbing, too, about to test 443.62-444.47 MA resistance, with the RLX at 441.97.

Jonathan Levinson : 10/20/2005 9:49:35 AM

This is the strongest move I've seen in a long time- price is behaving comfortably against even the longest of intraday cycles. So far, this daily cycle upturn is behaving like the real deal, but the day is still young. Link

Linda Piazza : 10/20/2005 9:48:53 AM

BIX still pushing higher, testing that former broadening formation's resistance. That's at about 340.90, if I've draw the line correctly, with the BIX just above that, at 341.21. The OEX isn't going to retreat too far, perhaps, until the BIX stops climbing and rolls over, if it does.

Linda Piazza : 10/20/2005 9:45:51 AM

Next advdec line resistance at about 450-700, with the advec line now at 199, QCharts value.

Jonathan Levinson : 10/20/2005 9:45:23 AM

Volume breadth +1.27:1 on the NYSE, +2.37:1 on the Nasdaq.

Linda Piazza : 10/20/2005 9:45:00 AM

Here's what's happening on the OEX's 15-minute Keltner chart. At the close yesterday, the OEX had created a breakout signal with an upside target of 556.59, but I don't completely trust it. It will maintain that breakout signal, however, as long as it maintains 15-minute closes above 552.17, with the OEX currently at 553.19. The OEX does not have a good record of reaching those breakout targets, although it of course sometimes does. Moving up to the 30-minute chart, the OEX is butting its head against strong resistance at 553.66 on 30-minute closes. I think that resistance is likely to hold and the OEX is likely to pull back, at least in advance of another test of that resistance. However, until it either breaks below 15-minute support or above 30-minute resistance, it's stuck. From the chart characteristics I watch, I think we ended the day yesterday near a short-term top for the move, but there hasn't been confirmation, and the advdec line didn't set up the way I wanted it to this morning. It's coming up now to retest resistance, as I thought it might.

Jonathan Levinson : 10/20/2005 9:42:56 AM

QQQQ - Exit Point Alert -

Out QQQQ, -.05.

Linda Piazza : 10/20/2005 9:40:54 AM

I may not always be getting correct values on the advdec line so am flying in the blind here according to the parameters that I use. It's still headed down, but into possible support, and may bounce back to test resistance. The OEX still tests the 60-minute 100-ema.

Jonathan Levinson : 10/20/2005 9:39:33 AM

The entry is based on the upper channel violations, the lack of gap up followthrough, and the extended nature of the move beyond the price bands that (until yesterday) tend to work reliably. Link

Jonathan Levinson : 10/20/2005 9:37:55 AM

QQQQ - Entry Point Alert -

Short QQQQ at 38.73, stop 38.78

Linda Piazza : 10/20/2005 9:37:17 AM

The BIX just hit the lower trendline of its broadening formation, from the underside, after breaking through that formation in mid-September. Important test for the BIX, and a rollover here in the BIX would help OEX bears.

Linda Piazza : 10/20/2005 9:36:13 AM

OEX still testing the 60-minute 100-ema and the 38.2% retracement of the drop from the 10/3 high into the 10/13 low. Sure wish the advdec line had opened higher, giving us a new bearish signal. It gave one yesterday, early, but all but those who prefer wide, wide stops should be stopped out because I'd said to set them an account-appropriate level above the 10/17 high of 552.41. I'm still in because I follow a setup on the advdec line and not on prices on the OEX, but the problem with the setup that I use is that plays sometimes go very, very wrong before they go right, and that's not appropriate for most traders on this site.

Jonathan Levinson : 10/20/2005 9:33:50 AM

QQQQ's 30 min channel top holds at 38.70 after lagging the move in price for much of yesterday afternoon. The price move also exceeded the upper 20-period bollinger bands on the 30 and 60 min charts. Currently, 72 SMA support is at 38.30, above which the intraday cycles retain a bullish bias. Link

Linda Piazza : 10/20/2005 9:33:20 AM

SOX gapped higher this morning, right below the important 200-ema, an average that I think is more important on the SOX than the -sma version. The 200-ema is at 442.90 and the SOX at 441.74.

Linda Piazza : 10/20/2005 9:32:07 AM

The OEX is currently testing the 60-minute 100/130-ema's, dropping beneath them as I type, but only by a little. The advdec line opened in nowhere land again according to my signals, but drops toward support in the -800 to -1200 zone, support that could be strong. No new signals according to my setup, although an early drop has not been good for bulls lately.

Jonathan Levinson : 10/20/2005 9:30:53 AM

Volume breadth is +2.65:1 on the NYSE, +2.67:1 on the Nasdaq at the open.

Linda Piazza : 10/20/2005 9:30:21 AM

Advdec line drops at the open.

Jonathan Levinson : 10/20/2005 9:09:31 AM

The Fed has announced a 7B 14-day repo which drains net 2B on that timeframe. The stop out rate rose to 3.75, at the target rate, and showing a higher demand for the money than we've seen in many sessions. Awaiting the overnight repo announcement just before 10AM- 4.25B remains to be covered.

Jonathan Levinson : 10/20/2005 8:47:39 AM

Further to Linda's post, here's a daily chart of the Dow in the months leading up to the 1987 crash. It's not dissimilar to this year's chart, and stretching the analogy, yesterday's spike would coincide with the bounce that took place 4 sessions prior to Oct. 19, 1987. Yesterday's rally was much larger than that which took place ahead of the 1987 meltdown, however, and I don't mean to suggest that this is what's going to occur. But it's fascinating to look at these charts and compare. The bounce in Oct. 1987 launched from a doji bottom, broke the previous 2 day's highs, then settled back to close above the previous day's high. A bear flag (as it turned out), but it also kicked off a new daily cycle buy signal. It no doubt sucked in a lot of new longs and caused many shorts to cover... presumably depriving the market of support and contributing to the drop which was to follow.

Again, these are different times, and while the past can rhyme, it rarely repeats. Here's the chart:Link

Jonathan Levinson : 10/20/2005 8:31:29 AM

No response from bonds or equities, QQQQ edging down a penny as I type, TNX holding steady at 4.494%.

Linda Piazza : 10/20/2005 8:33:22 AM

What a bullish day was seen yesterday on the OEX and other indices! And wasn't it nice that the bounce occurred just as it looked as if we'd see markets crash through some important support levels? And wasn't it nice that we avoided having that happen on the anniversary of the 1987 crash?

And doesn't that make you oh-so-suspicious?

It was fun participating in the gains yesterday while they lasted, or at least part of the gains, but I'm suspicious. Suspicious or not, the OEX printed a bullish engulfing candle yesterday. It climbed up to test and close slightly above the 38.2% retracement of its decline off the 10/3 high into the 10/13 low, with that level at about 553.38. It confirmed a double bottom. It closed just above the 60-minute 100-ema at 553.04.

However, while the case wasn't as easy to see on the OEX as it is on other indices, the others were climbing straight from known and expected support (true of the OEX, too) into retests of recently broken support. The SPX closed right at its 200-ema and just below the 200-sma and further resistance in the 1200-1204 region. The Nasdaq climbed straight toward the 2097-2106 resistance zone. The Dow ended in one S/R zone, with a river of MA's above that. Indeed, looking at the charts on these, it looks suspiciously like the indices just overran resistance by a little.

The SOX and RUT present stronger cases, with the SOX usually seeing some follow-through after producing such a strong spring up and with the RUT looking as if it might be heading for the midline of its rising regression channel at about 644 or so. However, did you notice that the SOX stopped at the resistance of its last little triangle on the daily chart? And that the RUT's climb still could be a bear flag?

Watch some of those levels this morning for the potential of a pullback at least, if not something more. Yesterday morning, I was warning that the OEX was hitting the bottom support of its 30-minute Keltner channel and that such support usually held. This morning, I'm warning that it ended the day at the top of that same channel and that the resistance there usually holds, too, although nothing precludes a pullback and then another push higher, with each push higher nudging that target higher, too. That channel's resistance has held since the middle of September, for example. In addition, the advdec line had set up the possibility of a pullback this morning, perhaps after an early climb.

So, the possibility of a pullback and maybe even a pop-and-drop exists this morning. If the advdec line opens near or above 1800-2100 and perhaps climbs, but then reverses hard during the second or third 15-minute period, the possibility for a pullback increases. If it instead opens near the flat-line level and climbs from there, the pullback scenario is threatened.

If a pullback begins, the OEX has potentially strong support at 551.93 on 15-minute closes, so support is nearby and it's possible that only scalpers might benefit. Unless the OEX plunges straight through that, I'd expect a bounce and retest of 30-minute resistance. I'll let you know where that it tomorrow after the open. I'll let you know what I see on the advdec line. For now, I see the possibility of a quick scalping move to the downside, but then we'll have to see how things set up after that before any more predictions are made. Stay suspicious. Remember that this is opex week, among other reasons for suspicion. Only adept traders should be trying to trade this. If you're a newbie, it might be a good day instead for you to test your favorite indicator.

Jonathan Levinson : 10/20/2005 8:30:47 AM







Jonathan Levinson : 10/20/2005 8:29:02 AM

"Live" color infrared loop of the hurricane at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 10/20/2005 8:21:00 AM

Ten year note yields are +3.1 bps at 4.494% ahead of the Initial Claims data, IRX +1.3 bps at 3.77%.

Jonathan Levinson : 10/20/2005 8:20:19 AM

CANCUN, Mexico (AP) - Hurricane Wilma weakened slightly as it roared toward Mexico's Yucatan peninsula and southern Florida, leaving 13 people dead in its wake and forcing the evacuation of tens of thousands in coastal areas from Honduras to the Florida Keys.

Wilma briefly grew into a monstrous Category 5 storm before weakening to a Category 4 Wednesday night.


Jonathan Levinson : 10/20/2005 8:18:26 AM

The Fed's open market desk has 11.25B in expiring repos today, comprised of a 9B 14-day repo and a 2.25B overnight repo.

Jonathan Levinson : 10/20/2005 7:45:39 AM

Equities are down, ES trading 1198.5, NQ 1577.5, YM 10435 and QQQQ -.01 at 38.66. Gold is up 50 cents to 466.30, silver is down .002 to 7.638, ten year notes are -11/64 to 108 15/16, crude oil is flat at 62.40 and natgas is -.18 at 13.37.

We await the 8:30 release of Initial claims, est. 365K, then at 10AM Leading Economic Indicators, est. -.5%, and at noon, the Philly Fed, est. 10.

Linda Piazza : 10/20/2005 6:54:09 AM

Good morning. The Nikkei rose last night, although it closed near its low of the day. Other Asian markets gained, as do European markets this morning. As of 6:49 EST, gold was higher by $0.90 to $466.70, and crude, down by $0.16 to $62.25. Our futures were lower at that time. More details about Asian and European markets follows in succeeding paragraphs.

After strong gains in the U.S. markets yesterday, the Nikkei gapped higher last night and climbed during the early part of the session. The rest of the day, it was to chop around in an 80-point range in positive territory, closing near the bottom of that range. It closed higher by 60.97 points or 0.46%, at 13,190.46. Before the open, the Reuters' Tankan survey showed that in the quarter ending in September, manufacturers' DI or diffusion index, a net percentage of corporations that believe conditions are favorable, dropped to +15 from the previous +20, with higher crude prices contributing to the decline, while non-manufacturers' rose to +25 from +19, with domestic demand contributing to the rise. The forecast for the next quarter's report, due in January, is for a rise to +25 for manufacturers and +27 for non-manufacturers. Early gainers included shares of computer-related companies such as Advantest and Tokyo Electron Ltd. Early decliners included automakers. Nissan's chief executive gave a dour outlook, saying that the strong sales markets in the U.S. and China would not continue at previous rates.

Most other Asian markets gained, too. The Taiwan Weighted gained 0.95%, and South Korea's Kospi rose 0.79%. Singapore's Straits Times climbed 0.39%, and Hong Kong's Hang Seng rose 0.25%. China's Shanghai Composite gained 0.12%. China's GDP was released last night, showing strength although cooling slightly from its overheated previous numbers. It grew 9.4% in the third quarter and in the first nine months of the year. This still beat forecasts for 9.2% growth. Katrina-related disruptions in U.S. production and consumption might lead to a further cooling in the next quarter and a full-year growth somewhere around 9.0%. Because the last yuan revaluation occurred just after the release of the second quarter GDP report, some speculate that China might soon move toward other revisions. So far, these are just rumors.

European markets post strong gains this morning, with a strong retail sales figure and encouraging earnings reports from SAP and Nestle being mentioned as factors, both in print articles and on CNBC Europe. SAP raised its sales and earnings outlook after seeing profit increase 15%. Nestle sales rose 5%. Oil and gas majors rebounded from their recent pounding. In other news, one source reported that Germany's engineering and technology conglomerate Siemens has engaged in talks to buy French electrical equipment maker Legrand. Legrand is currently undergoing preparations for an IPO. Nokia rose ahead of its earnings report but declined afterward. CNBC Europe was just reporting that the company also raised its guidance for industry sales. Nokia beat expectations by a penny, with mobile phone sales higher but mobile phone operating margin and average selling price falling. Nokia expects to increase its market share. The company also expects to see network sales lower in the fourth quarter and mentioned that profitability in the network sales division might be pressured during that quarter.

The Eurozone August trade figures showed a deficit of 2.6 billion euros against July's and the year ago's surplus. Expectations had been for a surplus, although a narrowing one. Italy's October Consumer Confidence rose in October to 105.3 from a revised slightly higher September number of 102.9. General outlook, durable goods spending plans, and expectations components increased. The personal assessment component stayed stable. Expectations for 12-month inflation rose to a high not seen in three years.

As of 6:45 EST, the FTSE 100 had risen 45.30 points or 0.88%, to trade at 5,213.10. The CAC 40 had risen 54.89 points or 1.25%, to trade at 4,429.98. The DAX had risen 60.46 points or 1.25%, to trade at 4,906.44.

Jeff Bailey : 10/20/2005 3:08:26 AM

Here's one to keep an eye on .... I'm telling ya! It feels like fall, but sounds a lot like the spring of 2004. WEEKLY Chart of BAC at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 10/20/2005 3:03:18 AM

I need some sleep ... see you in the morning!

Jeff Bailey : 10/20/2005 3:02:39 AM

OOooooo .... Link

Jeff Bailey : 10/20/2005 3:01:17 AM

GEeeee .... Link

Jeff Bailey : 10/20/2005 3:00:33 AM

hMMMmmmm ... Link

Market Monitor Archives