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Tab Gilles : 10/25/2005 2:06:04 AM

Value Line Arithmetic and Geometric ($XVG/$VLE) Link Link Link Link

Tab Gilles : 10/25/2005 1:15:38 AM

$NASI Weekly chart Link

Tab Gilles : 10/25/2005 12:41:14 AM

Murphy Oil (MUR) Link Link Link Link

Tab Gilles : 10/25/2005 12:41:06 AM

Citrix Systems (CTXS) Link Link Link

Tab Gilles : 10/25/2005 1:14:49 AM

Nasdaq Summation Index ($NASI) The weekly $NASI gave a buy signal after the close Monday night. As did the daily chart, however, I'm waiting to see if this reading was a fasle reading and would like to get confirmation on the Tuesday close chart. That said we may see again a fake out with the $NDX hitting the 1600 level and reversing. That may or may not occur, however any break over 1600 and the $NASI along with $NAHL, $VXN charts signaling buy, this rally may have more upside. Link Link Link Link

OI Technical Staff : 10/24/2005 9:59:59 PM

The Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

Disclaimer: Stocks discussed in the Market Monitor are for educational purposes only and any analysis is not meant to imply a recommendation for or against that stock. The analysts in this forum as on any other website are prohibited by the SEC from giving any specific advice to ANY individual trader. All information posted is for ALL readers and is not meant to be directed to any individual. Our analysts cannot answer any email questions regarding any specific stock. Please do not ask and please do not take offense if requests are denied.

Results posted in the Market Monitor are hypothetical and OIN does not claim that any reader achieved these exact results. Due to the lag time between research, writing, posting, uploading, reading and execution there will be differences between the actual signal given and the fill achieved by the reader. Fills may be better or worse but in most cases they will be different. The writers will make every effort to give advance notice of intended signals and indicate potential price targets. Your individual results may vary depending on your activity level and aggressiveness. This forum is intended as an education service only. Trading involves risk and should not be attempted by anyone not ready to accept this risk. By acting on any signal in this forum you agree and personally accept this risk.

Marc Eckelberry : 10/24/2005 9:45:08 PM

The November and December QQQQ 37 and 38 strikes have pc ratios that are so bearish, one has to consider the 38 level to be a major buying opportunity on a pullback. Call resistance is at 40. This would be a swing trade into the end of November, when I would exit and possibly reverse short into the final two weeks of the year. Do not jump the gun yet, wait for some kind of pullback. If you buy now, you will run smack into 40 call resistance and erode time value.

Jeff Bailey : 10/24/2005 7:11:17 PM

Albertsons (ABS) $25.25 +4.94% ... Grocer rocketed higher today on talk that rival Kroger (KR) $20.07 +1.36% may be set to make offer.

Might be something here. Friday morning (10/21/05 09:20:14) I noted 1.9 million shares blocked at $23.60.

Jeff Bailey : 10/24/2005 6:16:32 PM

Large Block Alert ... 2,000,000 shares crossed at $27.00 in shares of Merck (MRK).

Jeff Bailey : 10/24/2005 6:22:37 PM

Small cap alert ... Advisory panel to the SEC offers first indication of its plans for scaling back regulations on small public companies, floating a proposal that would exempt about half of U.S. market from a requirement of the 2002 Sarbanes-Oxley law.

Reuters story at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 10/24/2005 6:13:38 PM

Merck (MRK) $27.00 +3.13% Link ... reclaimed its opening session highs after the drug giant and Dow component posted net income of $1.42 billion, or $0.65 a share, which was $0.03 above consensus $0.62. Sales dropped 2.2% to $5.42 billion amid no sales of its painkiller Vioxx, which was pulled from market in September 2004.

Jeff Bailey : 10/24/2005 6:09:06 PM

AFLAC (AFL) $47.38 +3.29% Link ... notable new all-time high on the big board today after the supplemental health insurance provider posted Q3 net of $455 million, or $0.90 a share, as bond swaps boosted realized investment gains. Revenue increases more than 10% to $3.67 billion. Excluding items, earnings topped consensus of $0.64 a share.

Jeff Bailey : 10/24/2005 5:00:38 PM

Sovereign Bancorp (SOV) $23.37 (halted) ... Philadelphia-based thrift saying it will acquire Independence Community Bank Corp. (ICBC) $32.45 (halted since Friday) for $3.6 billion, or $42 per share and enter New York market. The deal is all cash.

Earlier today, the thrift confirmed that Spanish banking giant Santander Central Hispano (STD) $13.13 +2.49% was buying a 20% stake for $27 per share.

Jeff Bailey : 10/24/2005 4:49:37 PM

Texas Instruments (TXN) $30.92 +1.31% ... lower at $29.52 after the world's largest maker of chips used in mobile phones reported earnings of $631 million, or $0.38 a share, which was up 10% from $563 million, or $0.32 in the year-ago period. Revenue came in at $3.59 billion vs. $3.25 billion.

Consensus was for $0.39 per share on revenue of $3.56 billion.

Jeff Bailey : 10/24/2005 4:44:54 PM

PortalPlayer (PLAY) $27.86 +8.19% ... falls to $23.70 in extended session after company said quarterly net income jumped to $10.3 million, or $0.40 per share compared to $3.2 million, or $0.18 per share in the year-ago period. The figures easily surpassed consensus of $0.35 per share.

The company also announced it may sell up to 4.5 million shares in an offering to raise cash for general corporate purposes and working capital.

Most recent filing had 23.63 million shares outstanding, float: N/A.

Jeff Bailey : 10/24/2005 4:35:44 PM

Closing Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 10/24/2005 4:22:28 PM

Closing U.S. Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 10/24/2005 4:19:27 PM

DJ - Citigroup upgrades Mexican equities to "neutral", cuts Chile exposure.

Jeff Bailey : 10/24/2005 4:07:33 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles found at this Link ... Today's Activity .... Lowered bearish stop on the remaining 1/4 bearish position in Dynamic Materials (BOOM) to $20.32.

Linda Piazza : 10/24/2005 4:04:39 PM

OEX Trade Recap for the Day
Bearish entry at OEX 548.37, according to my quote source. November 555 put at 10.70 x 11.50 at entry, according to my quote source. (As noted previously, I wasn't recommending this or any particular put or saying that you could have entered at that price, but only noting it for benchmarking purposes. It was noted just after the entry was uploaded on the MM.)

First profit target of 547.20 was reached, with conservative traders urged to exit all the position and others to exit part and prepare for a bounce back to test resistance. OEX 555 put at 11.20 x 12.00.

Stopped out of the rest of the position at 550.45. OEX 555 put at 9.00 x 9.80.

Jonathan Levinson : 10/24/2005 4:02:03 PM

QQQQ drills through 30 and 60 min channel resistance to test the broad Keltner155 channel- I would expect only a very strong trending move exceed it at 39.20: Link

Jeff Bailey : 10/24/2005 3:58:32 PM

Retail Index (RLX.X) 440.18 +1.51% ... comes to test its 200-day SMA here. 50-day SMA trending lower at 443 with 21-day curling higher at session low of 432.

Linda Piazza : 10/24/2005 3:58:05 PM

The SOX is just above Friday's high now, currently testing the descending trendline off the 10/11 high. The SOX is at 446.71 as I type.

Linda Piazza : 10/24/2005 3:55:14 PM

I should have stuck with my original premise for the day in my 9:01:19 post, no matter what the advdec line was showing me. I know others are talking about the advdec line being strong and that's true, but my methodology is different and it's mostly successful, although woefully not so today. Link I think it signaled a day early, as it did last Wednesday and as it did on the 14th. That does not mean that the OEX will drop as significantly as it did those days and it obviously will be dropping from a much higher level than it would have been if the signal had produced a decline this morning. It could be signaling just a pullback, but we should see at least that tomorrow morning. A pullback from what level? I don't know. Maybe from the closing level and maybe from a little higher, after some initial follow through. And maybe the signal won't work at all.

Jeff Bailey : 10/24/2005 3:54:58 PM

Curbs in alert ... Dow Industrials (INDU) 10,380.92 +1.62%

Jonathan Levinson : 10/24/2005 3:53:19 PM

We have a violation of the upper 30 min channel here, a red paintbar to denote the breach. This is generally a sell signal, but I'm not taking it this close to the close and with upper wedge resistance just broken on a small burst of green volume: Link

Linda Piazza : 10/24/2005 3:44:49 PM

OEX breaking out now on the 10-minute chart, headed back to test that 15-minute resistance, with the 15-minute chart being the one that usually contains most movements. I wouldn't be surprised to see the OEX sprint over that resistance, too, into the close, as often happens on days like these. That resistance is at 551.91 on 15-minute closes, with the OEX currently at 551.66.

Linda Piazza : 10/24/2005 3:42:56 PM

OEX breaking to a new high, and it matters not at all that it's showing bearish divergences, too, up through the 10-minute chart. That could be erased with a further climb in the RSI, of course.

Jonathan Levinson : 10/24/2005 3:39:24 PM

Here's the short cycle upphase mentioned earlier, launching from the completion of a very weak corrective downphase for QQQQ. The 30 and 60 min cycles are trending at the tops of their ranges, and upper channel resistance so far is at 39.04-39.08- but the longer that price holds at the highs, the more likely we are to see those levels climb from here. Link

Jeff Bailey : 10/24/2005 4:51:28 PM

Sovereign Bancorp (SOV) $23.37 (halted) ... Spanish banking giant Santander Central Hispano SA (STD) $13.06 +1.95% has agreed to buy 20% of the Philadelphia-based thrift for $2.4 billion, or $27 per share.

Linda Piazza : 10/24/2005 3:38:55 PM

Unless the advdec line breaks and sustains values higher than 3200 this afternoon or perhaps early tomorrow morning, it's showing bearish divergence with every test of resistance since Friday morning. It's rising now, so it's certainly possible that a late-day push could do that. It's at 2901 as I type, QCharts value.

By the way, on almost every day that the advdec line sets up near the close as it looks to be doing now, there's either a gap lower or a pullback, perhaps after some minimal follow-through. I can't guarantee at what point that pullback would begin or whether there would be a gap lower, but I'm just saying that this is a common pattern and you can use it to help make end-of-day decisions.

Jeff Bailey : 10/24/2005 3:31:51 PM

Canada's Intl. Reserves up $197 million in week ended October 23 to $33.874 billion.

The Oct. 23 reserves included:

-U.S. dollars, $16.758 billion;

-other foreign currencies, $14.026 billion;

-gold, $50 million;

-special drawing rights, $898 million;

-reserve position in the International Monetary Fund, $2.142 billion.

All reserve figures are reported in U.S. funds.

Jonathan Levinson : 10/24/2005 3:29:39 PM

On the 4-day 100-tick QQQQ chart, we have what is eitehr a rising triangle breakout (bullish) or a rising wedge (bearish). If the former, we would want to see more volume on the upside break, and today's 88M QQQQ shares is strong, but running weaker than Friday's 110M total so far. If a bear wedge, then QQQQ 39 should not get violated, and a break below the 38.66 line would need to be strong and on high volume. Link

Jonathan Levinson : 10/24/2005 3:27:23 PM

Volume breadth holds at +4.66:1 on the NYSE, +3.27:1 on the Nasdaq.

Linda Piazza : 10/24/2005 3:27:16 PM

The advdec line is now coming up on the underside of the support line that it was clinging to earlier today, to test it from the underside. It was formerly at the 2800 level and now is higher, at about 2900. The advdec line is at 2866 as I type, QCharts value.

If I were the type of person who believed that some efforts were being made the hold the market up, the advdec line's actions today would be corroborating that view. So far--could be changed at the close--the advdec line has continued to show bearish divergences and Keltner-style bearish divergences, and it keeps slipping beneath lower levels of Keltner resistance. So far, it isn't falling back, though. It, however, does not look the same as the OEX's advance, with the advdec line never yet topping its early high although the OEX and some other indices have. That's a form of bearish divergence, too.

Linda Piazza : 10/24/2005 3:13:44 PM

SOX forming a doji so far, beneath or at the 200-ema. That's at 443.30, with the SOX at 443.15 as I type.

Jeff Bailey : 10/24/2005 3:12:13 PM

Industry Winners ... Coal +5.4%, Iron/Steel +5.07%, Trucking +3.07%, Metal/Mining +3.02%, Construction Supplies +2.81%

Industry Losers ... Printing Services -4.25%, Hotel/Motel -1.51%, Photography -1.20%, Office Equipment -1.04%, Apparel/Accessories -0.50%

Linda Piazza : 10/24/2005 3:09:55 PM

OEX 15-minute resistance at 551.52-551.74 on 15-minute closes, but it's bee the ten-minute chart that's calling the show today. Ten-minute resistance at 551.28-551.39 on ten-minute closes, with the OEX at 551.04.

Jeff Bailey : 10/24/2005 3:09:52 PM

03:00 Internals found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 10/24/2005 3:07:05 PM

That OEX ten-minute 21-ema was hit, at 550.05, and the OEX immediately shot higher into this new HOD. Someone was waiting to buy there. Advdec line resistance still looks relatively strong although this strong move higher in that line, too, scattered the resistance relative to the way it had been aligned earlier. The advdec line is not making any upward progress relative to its HOD while the OEX shoots higher, though, and that should worry bulls just a little.

Jonathan Levinson : 10/24/2005 3:05:55 PM





Jeff Bailey : 10/24/2005 3:02:07 PM

03:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 10/24/2005 2:57:14 PM

The OEX has produced a first ten-minute close beneath the Keltner line currently at 550.45 on 15-minute closes, the first time it's done so since this morning's first pullback. It's now testing the Keltner support at 550.34 on 15-minute closes, with several minutes left to pull itself back up above that Keltner line. It wouldn't be a big violation of that support anyway if it were to close this period at the current 550.26. These are tentative signs at the very least, but the advdec line could not break through resistance and so needs to retreat to next support, wherever that might be.

Linda Piazza : 10/24/2005 2:54:47 PM

the OEX is dropping toward a test of the 10-minute 21-ema at 549.95. Earlier this MA stopped the OEX pullback on the 10-minute close, so a ten-minute close beneath that number would change the short-term tenor. OEX at 550.19 as I type.

Jonathan Levinson : 10/24/2005 2:52:41 PM

QQQQ loses 72 SMA support here for the first time this afternoon. Link

Jeff Bailey : 10/24/2005 2:43:55 PM

10-year YIELD ($TNX.X) is up 5.8 bp at 4.450%. Price is down .... Dec futures (zn05z) $109'045 -0.38%

Linda Piazza : 10/24/2005 2:37:44 PM

The OEX continues to hold above support currently at 550.47 on ten-minute closes and above that at 550.29 on fifteen-minute closes. As long as that continues, it's still continuing its pattern for today. The next sign of any change in pattern would be a ten-minute close beneath the ten-minute 21-ema, currently at 549.87. None of those has happened yet. Until they do, you can consider that the OEX will continue to test resistance, with the possibility that it will break free of that resistance. Bulls need to be aware that the Keltner resistance from 551.15-551.53 has been holding so far today, though, and that's a channel that usually does contain most OEX movements. Until and unless there's a 15-minute close above that top Keltner line, the very-short-term outlook (resistance being challenged) is battling little less short-term outlook that resistance is likely to hold.

Jonathan Levinson : 10/24/2005 2:37:28 PM

QQQQ is testing 72 SMA support at 38.88, its third test of the SMA since breaking above it at 11:30AM: Link

Jonathan Levinson : 10/24/2005 2:31:04 PM

Crude oil closes -.40 at 60.225, natgas +.06 at 13.225 for the day session.

Jonathan Levinson : 10/24/2005 2:27:37 PM

Ten year note yields are down 6.2 bps at 4.452%, a 1.41% change today. 13-week bill rates are up .7 bps at 3.772%, a .19% gain.

Linda Piazza : 10/24/2005 2:25:14 PM

As long as the advdec line clings to the 2800-ish level, it has a chance of rising to 3475 but it also has a chance of declining to 1900. The overhead resistance continues to strengthen and currently looks stronger than nearest support. If the powers-that-be want the markets to stay up today of all days, then it will, but those are the chart characteristics that I see.

Jeff Bailey : 10/24/2005 2:23:37 PM

I have to shut down for about 15-minutes. Have not been able to get a full intra-day chart of anything all session.

Jonathan Levinson : 10/24/2005 2:21:53 PM

QQQQ's 30 and 60 min cycles are trending or on the verge of (in the case of the 60 min cycle), all showing potential bearish divergences if the bulls can't hold it up here. Against this tentatively bearish setup is a very weak/corrective short cycle downphase nearly 2/3 done. If the bears can't do more damage that this within the next half hour, I'll be expecting an aggressive retest of the highs when that short cycle turns back up: Link

Jeff Bailey : 10/24/2005 2:20:47 PM

PortalPlayer (PLAY) $27.35 +6.21% ... stock surging. Earnings tonight. Excessive action in Nov. $30 Calls (4,934 : 11,888).

Consensus $0.35 per share.

Linda Piazza : 10/24/2005 2:12:26 PM

Reply to Reader Question: I received a question earlier today about whether the advdec line I use is available on Trade Station. I answered that question earlier today, but it has apparently not reached the reader. I thought I'd address it here since some other subscribers might use Trade Station. As far as I know, and as far as other commentators on the site have been able to determine, that figure is not available from Trade Station. Sorry.

This reader also asked if it's feasible to get between the bid and the ask if trading only 3 or 4 contracts. Good question, and the answer is yes. When I was first testing this methodology, I tested it with one-contract trades. In fact, sometimes I think it's easier to get between the bid and the ask with small numbers of contracts, because sometimes they just want to get rid of you and clear your order. This is just anecdotal evidence, but generally I haven't noticed any more difficulty when trading small numbers of contracts than when trading larger numbers, and sometimes less trouble. Maybe that's just because I'm more patient with entries and exits when less is at stake.

Jeff Bailey : 10/24/2005 2:11:35 PM

02:00 Internals found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 10/24/2005 2:07:03 PM

As I thought it might do, that 10-minute 21-ema that supported the OEX on its previous pullback (on a 10-minute close) has now risen to join the potential support near 549.61, the 61.8% retracement off Wednesday's high into Friday's low.

Linda Piazza : 10/24/2005 2:04:22 PM

Advdec line resistance looking stronger than it has all day, but it's not dropping.

Jeff Bailey : 10/24/2005 2:04:03 PM

02:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 10/24/2005 2:03:29 PM

The OEX is again rising toward a test of the day's high. OEX 15-minute resistance, now at 551-25-551.53, looks a bit stronger now, but its strength is possibly about to be tested if the OEX can break to a new high. It did press a couple of cents higher than the previous HOD, but still within testing range, and it's dropped down slightly from that test. Only slightly. It's at 550.75 as I type.

Jeff Bailey : 10/24/2005 2:02:00 PM

Hurricane Wilma ... NHC saying Wilma has restrengthened to Category 3. Maximum sustained winds near 115 MPH.

Jeff Bailey : 10/24/2005 2:00:41 PM

American Express (AXP) $48.26 +2.33% ... Announces Q3 net of $1.0 billion vs. $879 million in same period last year (+17%). Q3 EPS of $0.69. Consensus was for $0.68 per share.

Jonathan Levinson : 10/24/2005 1:57:39 PM

I recall reading that the the markets rallied on the days of Volcker's and Greenspan's nominations.

Jonathan Levinson : 10/24/2005 1:54:20 PM

Today's action, most bullish on the ES and YM, is far less than the utter wire-to-wire meltup that some might have predicted for a day in which 6B of new money is added by the Fed and Bernanke is appointment to replace the outgoing Chairman. The Nasdaq is holding at a nominally higher high while the SOX has made it back from below Friday's low and is only now approaching Friday's highs. It's clearly a bullish day in the markets, but not as strong as I might have though. So far, the move in bonds has outpaced the gains in equities.

Jeff Bailey : 10/24/2005 1:54:17 PM

Sovereign Bancorp (SOV) $23.37 (halted) ... shares have been halted all day. Spain's Banco Santander Central Hispano SA saying it is in "advanced discussions" about taking a significant stake in the Philadelphia-based thrift.

Linda Piazza : 10/24/2005 1:53:12 PM

It looks possible, although as yet far from probable that the advdec line could drop down toward 2200 or maybe even toward 1550. It's at 2766 as I type. Again, this is not a probable outcome yet, just a possible one.

Linda Piazza : 10/24/2005 1:51:58 PM

The OEX's ten-minute 21-ema was support on ten-minute closes on the earlier pullback today. That MA is now cycling up to 549.39 and still rising. If the OEX should dip lower, watch that average for potential support, particularly as it might by then have risen to the 549.61 level that's the location of the 61.8% retracement of the decline off Wednesday's high. the OEX isn't retreating right now, though. Instead, it's coiling at the top of its range for the day. Meanwhile, the advdec line's resistance continues to strengthen somewhat.

Jonathan Levinson : 10/24/2005 1:51:23 PM

Crude oil holds a .575 loss at 60.06, 32.5 cents off the high, while natgas is down .035 at 13.13, 12 cents off the session high.

Jonathan Levinson : 10/24/2005 1:49:18 PM

Volume breadth holds strong at +4.59:1 on the NYSE, +3.27:1 on the Nasdaq.

Linda Piazza : 10/24/2005 1:46:32 PM

There's the slightest hint now of resistance firming above the advdec line. It's nothing that a strong thrust upward can't break, but it's there for now.

Jonathan Levinson : 10/24/2005 1:43:15 PM

Good catch, Jeff, re: your 1:37:58. Here's an example of what the mainstream press managed to report:

CHICAGO (MarketWatch) -- The dollar remained under water but had pared previous losses once widely held speculation that Ben Bernanke would be tapped to replace outgoing Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan was put to rest with President Bush's official nomination. Last-minute uncertainty, even though Bernanke had long been the front-runner, added to general dollar weakness earlier Monday. The greenback was last changing hands at 115.35 yen compared to 115.85 yen Friday, a loss of 0.5%. The euro, after briefly climbing back above $1.20, stood more recently at $1.1967 vs. $1.1945 Friday, a gain of 0.1%

Jeff Bailey : 10/24/2005 1:39:50 PM

Oracle (ORCL) $12.48 +1.79% ... presses best levels of the session. Company's president saying Q2 has started off "pretty good" with a number of deals closing since the quarter began September 1.

Jeff Bailey : 10/24/2005 1:37:57 PM

DJ - Brazil's Central Bank buys US dollars at BRL2.62 ... The Brazilian Central Bank bought U.S. dollars at an auction Monday afternoon for BRL2.262 to the dollar.

The Brazilian real was trading at BRL2.264 to the dollar before the bank called the auction at 1717 GMT. The real traded flat at BRL2.264 shortly after the auction.

The currency opened at BRL2.261 to the dollar on Monday, slightly stronger from Friday's close of BRL2.266.

The bank also bought dollars from the market at auctions held on Tuesday, Thursday and Friday last week.

Linda Piazza : 10/24/2005 1:37:15 PM

RUT approaching a 50% retracement of its decline off the 10/4 high. That's at about 644.40, with the RUT currently at 642.46.

Linda Piazza : 10/24/2005 1:36:00 PM

The OEX is attempting to bounce now after retesting the 30-minute 100/130-ema's. Those are at 549.05 and 549.83. The OEX has not yet at least confirmed the double-top formation on its five-minute chart and a new HOD would erase that potential, of course. Previous HOD at 550.93 with the OEX at 550.77 as I type.

Jonathan Levinson : 10/24/2005 1:34:28 PM

QQQQ holds below the 38.97 session high, so far printing a pattern of higher lows in what could be a bullish rising triangle. A break above the session highs on a spike in volume would target the upper 30/60 kin channel tops in the 39-39.10 area: Link

Jeff Bailey : 10/24/2005 1:28:52 PM

DJ - Brazil's Central Bank calls auction to buy US Dollars. (more to follow)

Linda Piazza : 10/24/2005 1:24:54 PM

OEX Keltner picture: The OEX has resistance at 551.05-551.39 on 15-minute closes, with that upper line already tested today (when it was lower than it is currently). Support at 549.74 on 15-minute closes, with the OEX testing that support during the current and previous 15-minute periods. If that support should fail, the next Keltner support is from 547.98-548.43 on 15-minute cloes, with that looking fairly strong at the current time.

Linda Piazza : 10/24/2005 1:21:45 PM

Confirmation of the OEX's double-top would come on an OEX move below 549.71. That hasn't happened yet.

Jeff Bailey : 10/24/2005 1:20:26 PM

S&P 100 Index (OEX.X) 550.15 +1.03% ... top 33 most heavily weighted components at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 10/24/2005 1:16:55 PM





Linda Piazza : 10/24/2005 1:13:49 PM

Double top test on the OEX.

Jonathan Levinson : 10/24/2005 1:13:33 PM

Foreign central banks took 8.3B of the 36B auctioned, slightly below their usual participation. The 19B in 13-week bills sold for 3.85% yielding 3.942%, with a 2.11 bid-to-cover ratio. The 26 week bills sold for 4.065% yielding 4.208%, with 2.15 bids tendered for each accepted.

Linda Piazza : 10/24/2005 1:13:27 PM

Advdec line pulling back to test support that's been holding it all day, at 2770, with the advdec line at 2783 as I type, QCharts value. The OEX has dropped to retest the 30-minute 100/130-ema's that it broke through earlier, ruining my bearish play. Is this retest an opportunity for a bullish entry or a sign of a deeper pullback, perhaps at least to the 100-ema at 549? The evidence isn't clear, but as long as the advdec support currently at 2770 holds, there's the possibility of another bounce. There is such bearish divergence on that advdec line, though, that there's no way I'll be suggesting a bullish entry even though it may be setting up to do what it did on the 14th, climbing all day. The OEX has Keltner resistance at 551.31 on 15-minute closes, and it's usually fairly strong resistance, although of course there are middle-of-the-day breakouts, as there was on 9/29.

Jeff Bailey : 10/24/2005 1:12:13 PM

01:00 Internals found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 10/24/2005 1:10:55 PM

Ten year notes are recovering off their lows, TNX now down to a 4.8 bp gain at 4.438%.

Jonathan Levinson : 10/24/2005 1:08:54 PM

QQQQ breaks the prior low, touching a low here to 38.86, as the short cycle indicators begin to roll over: Link

Jonathan Levinson : 10/24/2005 1:07:52 PM





Linda Piazza : 10/24/2005 1:03:42 PM

The OEX pullback so far looks bull flaggish on the 15-minute chart. Advdec resistance holds, but no pullback yet.

Jonathan Levinson : 10/24/2005 1:02:36 PM





Jeff Bailey : 10/24/2005 1:02:12 PM

01:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 10/24/2005 12:58:06 PM

Volume breadth +5.03:1 on the NYSE, +3.9:1 on the Nasdaq here. Awaiting results of the 36B Treasury auction in a few minutes.

Jeff Bailey : 10/24/2005 12:55:09 PM

Health Provider Index (RXH.X) 456.28 -1.01% ... only equity-based sector in U.S. Market Watch currently in the red. Sets up for test of rising 200-day SMA Link ...

Matria Healthcare (MATR) $32.57 +1.78% Link ... off session highs of $33.34.

Linda Piazza : 10/24/2005 12:52:09 PM

The BIX burst back above the bottom of its broadening formation, and has now risen all the way to its 50-sma at 343.36. The BIX has pulled back slightly from its test of that MA and also of the 38.2% retracement of its steep decline off the 7/15 high into the October low, but it would take a decline below 340 or so to make the candle look too bearish. The BIX is at 342.66 as I type.

Jonathan Levinson : 10/24/2005 12:51:14 PM

QQQQ holds 38.90 support after stopping us out at the session high. The short cycle is still trending in overbought at what should be its peek, the wavelet heading down in a lukewarm decline so far. A break below 38.72 confirms any weakness in the rising 30/60 min cycles. Link

Jeff Bailey : 10/24/2005 12:50:43 PM

Russell 2000 Index (RUT.X) 641.91 +1.45% Link ... Today's trade at 640 is double top buy signal after test of bullish support trend.

Back above its rounding flat 200-day SMA. 21-day SMA just ahead at 644. Link

Linda Piazza : 10/24/2005 12:49:38 PM

The SOX has risen to the 200-ema again, with tha at 443.30 and the SOX exactly there.

Linda Piazza : 10/24/2005 12:47:35 PM

Advdec resistance still holding (five-minute chart), but not pulling back yet.

Jonathan Levinson : 10/24/2005 12:47:03 PM

Session low for 10-yr notes here at 109 1/16, TNX now up 6.8 bps or 1.55% to 4.458%, breaking Friday's high.

Jeff Bailey : 10/24/2005 12:43:03 PM

Bearish swing trade lower stop alert ... for Dynamic Materials (BOOM) $20.11 +3.65% ... to breakeven ($20.32).

I'm not seeing the negative reaction to Bernanke appointment at this stage.

Linda Piazza : 10/24/2005 12:39:00 PM

OEX Keltner picture. Next Keltner resistance at 551.18 on 15-minute closes. This is the channel that usually contains most OEX prices, but that doesn't preclude a breakout. Stronger resistance at 553.19.

Jeff Bailey : 10/24/2005 12:38:55 PM

DJ - Senate Banking Chair Shelby saying Dr. Bernanke would be "good appointment."

Dow Industrials (INDU) 10,335 +1.18% ... up 120 points.

Jonathan Levinson : 10/24/2005 12:38:16 PM

QQQQ - Exit Point Alert -

Stopped QQQQ at 38.97, -.05

Linda Piazza : 10/24/2005 12:35:44 PM

OEX Trade Recap
Bearish entry at OEX 548.37, according to my quote source. November 555 put at 10.70 x 11.50 at entry, according to my quote source. (As noted previously, I wasn't recommending this or any particular put or saying that you could have entered at that price, but only noting it for benchmarking purposes. It was noted just after the entry was uploaded on the MM.)

First profit target of 547.20 was reached, with conservative traders urged to exit all the position and others to exit part and prepare for a bounce back to test resistance. OEX 555 put at 11.20 x 12.00.

Stopped out of the rest of the position at 550.45. OEX 555 put at 9.00 x 9.80.

Jonathan Levinson : 10/24/2005 12:32:59 PM

The Nasdaq is testing 2100-2105 resistance, currently +19.72 at 2101.93, off a high of 2102.65.

Jonathan Levinson : 10/24/2005 12:31:46 PM

Ten year note yields are +5.2 bps at 4.442% here, IRX +2.7 bps at 3.792%, the yield curve steepening.

Linda Piazza : 10/24/2005 12:30:16 PM

OEX Trade Exit Point Alert
We were just stopped out of the bearish play on the rest of the position as the OEX hit 550.45. At the time it hit, the 555 put was 9.00 x 9.80, according to my quote source, and you've just seen two of the shortcomings that I named to the methodology I use. One is that the necessity to use high-delta options causes the losses to be bigger than you'd like. The other is the difficulty setting stops as that advdec line is still tentatively holding to resistance, although that might be about to change. In my personal trades, I don't exit until the advdec line tells me to do so, but that does not translate well onto the MM trades.

Jonathan Levinson : 10/24/2005 12:30:04 PM

QQQQ - Entry Point Alert -

Short QQQQ at 38.92 stop 38.97

Jonathan Levinson : 10/24/2005 12:28:37 PM

I'm looking for a short play as close to the upper 30/60 min channel tops as I can get it, currently in the 38.90-.92 area, to permit a tight stop.

Jeff Bailey : 10/24/2005 12:26:28 PM

12:00 Internals found at this Link ... Correction to 10:00 and 11:00 NH/NL ratios. I had inadvertently hidden 5 rows of data in my spreadsheet, which skewed the NH/NL ratios to the upside. Currently displayed NH/NL ratios are correct.

Table of NH/NL data at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 10/24/2005 12:24:42 PM

Session highs across the board.

Linda Piazza : 10/24/2005 12:23:55 PM

Advdec line still testing that resistance, and the OEX is rising with it.

Linda Piazza : 10/24/2005 12:23:05 PM

SOX is down today, as some might have already noted, finding resistance at its 200-ema after punching just above it. That average is at 443.27 with the SOX currently at 440.68. The SOX is trading within a triangle at the bottom of its drop (if you ignore the long candle shadow on 10/19 that spiked below that triangle. With such a strong spike upward after that punch lower, bulls should have been able to build on the gains rather than continuing to coil, you'd have thought.

Jonathan Levinson : 10/24/2005 12:21:10 PM

QQQQ's short cycle indicators are rolling over here (top oscillator pane) Link , the bounce stalling below the 30 and 60 min channel tops.

Linda Piazza : 10/24/2005 12:16:02 PM

Advdec line resistance still holding, but the advdec line still isn't retreating.

Linda Piazza : 10/24/2005 12:15:26 PM

There's a rising wedge on the OEX's 5- and 10-minute charts. These were traditionally deemed bearish, but we've seen a lot of them break to the upside, so experienced traders don't count on them breaking to the downside. An OEX move below 548.90 would be a violation of the downside support of this wedge. OEX at 549.64 as I type.

Linda Piazza : 10/24/2005 12:10:38 PM

Advdec line rising to test resistance again, strongest at about 2900 and then 3100. It's at 2811 as I type, QCharts value.

Linda Piazza : 10/24/2005 12:07:15 PM

The OEX is certainly not confirming that reversal signal produced during the last 30-minute period, not unless there's a steep decline this period.

Jane Fox : 10/24/2005 12:07:14 PM

AD volume makes another daily high and VIX makes a new daily low. The bulls still have the reins.

Jonathan Levinson : 10/24/2005 12:07:06 PM

Session high for NQ here, QQQQ 1 cent away.

Linda Piazza : 10/24/2005 12:05:38 PM

Advdec line resistance still holding, but it's still not pulling back. Support is trying to firm.

Jeff Bailey : 10/24/2005 12:04:14 PM

12:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 10/24/2005 12:03:24 PM

The OEX just created a shooting star, a potential reversal signal on the last 30-minute period. It needs confirmation by a decline during the just-begun 30-minute period.

Linda Piazza : 10/24/2005 11:58:36 AM

OEX testing 30-minute Kelter resistance from 549.92-550.00 on 30-minute closes. OEX at 549.22 as I type.

Linda Piazza : 10/24/2005 11:56:15 AM

Advdec line resistance still holding and there are signs that it's weaker in comparison to earlier thrusts upward, but it's not turning down significantly and that's what's needed next. I'm not alarmed yet--I've watched many a play proceed this way, but then this play is not exactly comfortable, either, is it?

Tab Gilles : 10/24/2005 11:55:52 AM

Citrix Systems (CTXS) Gaining after breaking over $26.[follow up 10/21 12:10AM post] Link

Jeff Bailey : 10/24/2005 11:55:49 AM

Unisys (UIS) $4.60 -17.11% Link ... Shares plunged to all-time low after the Washington Post reported that federal authorities found that the company "overbilled taxpayers by charging up to $131 for 171,000 hours worth of labor for employees who were paid less than half that amount."

"There certainly was no attempt here to commit any type of misdeed of any form," Unisys' managing partner of homeland security, Tom Conaway, told the Post.

Jonathan Levinson : 10/24/2005 11:54:51 AM

QQQQ's 30 min cycle downphase has just stalled out early again, and is turning up to meet the 60 min cycle that is stalled in the first stages of a rollover. This setup can break either way, to the upside in the beginning of a trending move or to the down in the start of an overdue synchronous decline for the intraday cycles. 30 min channel resistance is at 38.85, the 60 min top up to 38.91. The SOX continues to weigh on the Qs.

Linda Piazza : 10/24/2005 11:52:19 AM

OEX Trade Signals
OEX climbing up to test the 30-minute 130-ema. Advdec line not dropping although the resistance is still holding so far, but we may soon be stopped out of this play unless the advdec line turns down at resistance instead of just seeing the resistance holding.

Jeff Bailey : 10/24/2005 11:50:47 AM

Buy Program Premium ... DIA $103.12, SPX 1,191.54, QQQQ $38.77

Linda Piazza : 10/24/2005 11:49:39 AM

OEX currently between the 30-minute 100-ema at 548.94 and the 30-minute 130-ema at 549.79. OEX at 549.32 as I type. Advdec line resistance still holding, but more weakness is needed than has been seen so far. Short-term bears need to see the advdec line below 2200 again, as a beginning. It's at 2554 as I type, QCharts value.

Jeff Bailey : 10/24/2005 11:47:46 AM

Taser Intl. (TASR) $6.70 +22.71% Link ... atop NASDAQ's percentage gainer list after Jefferies upgrade. Firm saying distributor comments suggest that order levels have bottomed out. One U.S. distributor said he's seen good pickup for the third quarter, according to Jefferies analyst Matthew McKay. Another said revenue has remained steady, while a third distributor said his inventories have become tighter, he said.

Linda Piazza : 10/24/2005 11:44:21 AM

Advdec line still testing resistance.

Jonathan Levinson : 10/24/2005 11:44:17 AM




U.K.'S FTSE 100 ALSO GAINS 1.3% TO 5,207

Jane Fox : 10/24/2005 11:41:22 AM

Dateline WSJ President Bush plans to name Ben Bernanke, the current chairman of his Council of Economic Advisers, to succeed Alan Greenspan as chairman of the Federal Reserve.

Jeff Bailey : 10/24/2005 11:39:15 AM

30-year YIELD ($TYX.X) now up 4.7 bp at 4.656% ...

Jeff Bailey : 10/24/2005 11:38:36 AM

10-year YIELD ($TNX.X) now up 4.8 bp at 4.438%.

Jonathan Levinson : 10/24/2005 11:38:28 AM

Gold is back to the session high, +.5 at 469.60, silver 1 cent below at 7.74. Crude oil holds -.675 at 59.95.

Jeff Bailey : 10/24/2005 11:37:16 AM

Current OPEN MM Profiles found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 10/24/2005 11:36:57 AM

Volume breadth is back up to +4.6:1 on the NYSE, +2.67:1 on the Nasdaq.

Jonathan Levinson : 10/24/2005 11:33:39 AM

And there's the lift. Session highs for ES and YM, QQQQ up to 38.76 here. 30 and 60 min channel resistance are at 38.86-38.89, with the SOX breaking back to the bottom of Friday's range.

Linda Piazza : 10/24/2005 11:32:21 AM

Advdec line still retesting resistance.

Linda Piazza : 10/24/2005 11:31:08 AM

The OEX has just produced its first 30-minute close above the 30-minute 100-ema since Thursday afternoon.

Linda Piazza : 10/24/2005 11:30:30 AM

Advdec line testing resistance now, from 2700-3000. Advdec line at 2615 as I type, QCharts value.

Jeff Bailey : 10/24/2005 11:31:31 AM

KBW Bank Index (BKX.X) 97.34 +0.96% Link ... best levels of the session here. Breaks above 50-day SMA.

Linda Piazza : 10/24/2005 11:29:38 AM

Here we go, and we'll see if the announcement is going to blow our trade out of the water. OEX rising to retest the 30-minute 100/130-ema's at 548.92 and 549.79, respectively. OEX at 548.65 as I type.

Jonathan Levinson : 10/24/2005 11:28:45 AM

QQQQ continues to rise off the low, still below 72 SMA resistance as the short cycle indicators turn up from oversold territory. So far, the bounce is weaker than the decline which preceded it, but a break above the 72 SMA could provide further lift: Link

Jonathan Levinson : 10/24/2005 11:27:17 AM

Dec. gold trades -1.4 at 467.70, 1.90 off its earlier high. Crude oil is -.675 at 59.95, and the CRB is -1.72 at 320.79, with copper, wheat and heating oil leading to the downside.

Linda Piazza : 10/24/2005 11:26:42 AM

OEX retest Keltner resistance at 547.99 on 15-minute closes, with further resistance at in the 549.50-ish region on 30-minute closes. It's holding to support, though, on both charts, and so might go on challenging that resistance.

Linda Piazza : 10/24/2005 11:24:41 AM

Reader Question: Readers have asked about my trading methodology for these scalping plays. Here's a Traders Corner article I wrote a few weeks ago that explains what I'm watching: Link

For those who have asked, I don't believe that Trade Station offers the same setup.

Jonathan Levinson : 10/24/2005 11:23:10 AM

From the Treasury website:

The Treasury will auction 4-week Treasury bills totaling $18,000 million to refund an estimated $8,000 million of publicly held 4-week Treasury bills maturing October 27, 2005, and to raise new cash of approximately $10,000 million.

Linda Piazza : 10/24/2005 11:20:59 AM

The OEX has a little potential H&S now on its five-minute chart, so we have battling H&S and inverse H&S, never a good thing to have if you're trying to trade the market. I should have have everyone exit all positions when the OEX hit 547, just so we wouldn't have to endure this painful chop. Nothing too alarming is happening yet, though, with resistance looking as if it's trying to firm. That won't prevent the advdec line from climbing straight through it if we have some news that cheers the market.

Jeff Bailey : 10/24/2005 11:20:36 AM

Dr. Ben Bernanke (biography) ... thought by many to replace Alan Greenspan. Biography at this Link

Linda Piazza : 10/24/2005 11:18:36 AM

Advdec line rising now, headed toward resistance. Bears would like to see it remain below about 2650, but certainly below the HOD at 3001. It's at 2447 as I type, QCharts value.

Jonathan Levinson : 10/24/2005 11:17:06 AM

It's very hard to say, Marc. it could send yields higher. But recall that in 2003, as the USD Index declined, bonds and stocks rose together. Even if an inflationary wave of dollars is created, the purchase of bonds by those and related dollars can drive yields lower. It's much easier just to follow the charts than to try to predict macro forces for trading purposes, imo. But these certainly are interesting times.

Linda Piazza : 10/24/2005 11:15:59 AM

Advdec line trapped between nearby support and nearby resistance.

Linda Piazza : 10/24/2005 11:15:16 AM

The OEX is clinging to Keltner support at 547.01-547.29 and testing resistance at 547.93. It's trapped between the two.

Jeff Bailey : 10/24/2005 11:13:00 AM

11:00 Internals found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 10/24/2005 11:13:08 AM

Bernanke? He's the one who made the famous "printing press" comments in his 2002 speech. Greenspan would be a hawk compared to Bernanke, I would guess.

What has this got to do with monetary policy? Like gold, U.S. dollars have value only to the extent that they are strictly limited in supply. But the U.S. government has a technology, called a printing press (or, today, its electronic equivalent), that allows it to produce as many U.S. dollars as it wishes at essentially no cost. By increasing the number of U.S. dollars in circulation, or even by credibly threatening to do so, the U.S. government can also reduce the value of a dollar in terms of goods and services, which is equivalent to raising the prices in dollars of those goods and services. We conclude that, under a paper-money system, a determined government can always generate higher spending and hence positive inflation.


Jonathan Levinson : 10/24/2005 11:09:39 AM

From Bloomberg.com:

One person who has spoken to administration officials said the choice is expected to be Ben Bernanke, former Fed governor and chairman of Bush's Council of Economic Advisers. That could not be confirmed, although Bernanke cancelled meetings scheduled today in New York to remain in Washington, the person said.


Jonathan Levinson : 10/24/2005 11:07:45 AM

Session low for ten year notes at 109 3/8, TNX now up 2.2 bps at 4.412%.

Jonathan Levinson : 10/24/2005 11:06:30 AM

QQQQ bounces below 72 SMA resistance at 38.66, putting in a higher low above Friday's low, while the SOX continues to trade below Friday's low.

Linda Piazza : 10/24/2005 11:06:39 AM

This is so far following the script I noted earlier when I set the first profit target and said that conservative bears should exit the entire position and that others should prepare for a bounce back up to test resistance. That's what's happening, irrespective of what's happening with Greenspan's successor. That doesn't mean that the OEX will continue lower--it could punch through the resistance this time.

Jeff Bailey : 10/24/2005 11:04:25 AM

11:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 10/24/2005 11:03:40 AM

OEX Trade Signals
There could be a strong market reaction to Bush's naming of his successor. Think carefully about whether you want to stay in this play or not, as I have no idea what the reaction will be.

Jeff Bailey : 10/24/2005 11:01:41 AM

Currency Benchmarks at this Link ... Live at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 10/24/2005 10:58:43 AM

Ten year note yields hold a 1.2 bp gain at 4.402%, within the bottom of Friday's range. Updated daily chart at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 10/24/2005 10:58:11 AM

U.S. Dollar Index (dx00y) 90.12 -0.26% (30-minute delayed) ... trades below WEEKLY Pivot.

Linda Piazza : 10/24/2005 10:57:31 AM

Advdec line climbing to test resistance again. Watching carefully.

Jeff Bailey : 10/24/2005 10:56:32 AM

DJ alert - President Bush to name Greenspan replacement "soon."

Jonathan Levinson : 10/24/2005 10:55:08 AM

Volume breadth declines to +3.47:1 on the NYSE, +1.05:1 on the Nasdaq.

Linda Piazza : 10/24/2005 10:54:28 AM

OEX holding so far to 15-minute Keltner support at 546.98-547.22, and it's this support that makes me nervous for bears.

Jeff Bailey : 10/24/2005 10:53:31 AM

Disk Drive Index (DDX.X) 119.73 -1.26% ... turn defensive and edge below DAILY S1. Weekly Pivot 119.17.

SanDisk (SNDK) $55.14 -2.32% ...

Linda Piazza : 10/24/2005 10:53:18 AM

OEX Trade Signals
I see the potential for the advdec line to drop a bit further, but I'll be watching closely for signs that we should exit, so be watchful for a possible quick exit.

Jonathan Levinson : 10/24/2005 10:52:46 AM

A friend in Florida reports that electricity is out on the east coast, while structural damages appears minimal so far. That's anecdotal only- I'm not hearing anything new from the media yet.

Jeff Bailey : 10/24/2005 10:52:07 AM

Sell Program Premium ... DIA $102.50, SPX 1,185.26, QQQQ $38.52 -0.07% ....

Linda Piazza : 10/24/2005 10:51:26 AM

OEX Trade Exit Point Alert
First profit target reached. 555 put at 11.20 x 12.00.

Jonathan Levinson : 10/24/2005 10:51:22 AM

Session high for gold and silver futures here at 469.60 and 7.75 respectively.

Jeff Bailey : 10/24/2005 10:51:17 AM

DIA Option Chain snapshot at this Link ... not seeing much out of the ordinary here.

$100 call/put, which after this weekend's "Crash of 87" research would be the contracts to monitor for any hedge-related action.

Jonathan Levinson : 10/24/2005 10:49:42 AM

Crude oil bounces to a .725 loss at 59.90 here, natgas +.06 at a session high of 13.225.

Linda Piazza : 10/24/2005 10:49:08 AM

OEX Trade Exit Point Alert
First profit exit at 547.20, if touched. Conservative traders should exit entire position there. Others should be prepared for a possible bounce from there, back to test resistance.

Jonathan Levinson : 10/24/2005 10:49:06 AM

Although QQQQ has not yet come close, the SOX has broken Friday's low. Thursdsay's low is just below 438, SOX currently trading 440.29.

Jonathan Levinson : 10/24/2005 10:47:42 AM

The 30 min cycle for QQQQ has rolled over from a bearish divergent high, the lower channel bottom already declining to 38.50 as I type: Link

Linda Piazza : 10/24/2005 10:46:06 AM

Advdec line tentatively where we want it. Needs to drop further, though, to encourage us to hang on to the bearish scalp.

Jeff Bailey : 10/24/2005 10:45:29 AM

Dow Jones now saying President Bush to name Greenspan successor this afternoon.

Linda Piazza : 10/24/2005 10:45:05 AM

OEX Trade Signals
Advdec line dropping. Want to see it below 2300, though, and sustaining values below that. Thinking about a quick exit on our bearish scalp, maybe as quick at 547.20, but not sure yet. Watching the advdec line.

Jeff Bailey : 10/24/2005 10:44:34 AM

10 Most Active ... QQQQ $38.67 +0.31%, SPY $118.93 +0.65%, PFE $21.07 -0.80%, CD $19.77 -1.59%, IWM $63.53 +0.80%, LU $3.11 +0.97%, INTC $23.01 -0.60%, XLE $46.93 +1.97%, CSCO $17.02 -0.05%, MSFT $24.75 -0.12%

Jonathan Levinson : 10/24/2005 10:44:09 AM

QQQQ finally breaks 72 SMA support, approaching lower 30 min channel support lined up with S1 At 38.53: Link

Linda Piazza : 10/24/2005 10:43:24 AM

OEX bears want to see the OEX close a 15-minute period below 548.01, but will be fairly happy if it closes another below 548.30, the 50% retracement of the decline off the 10/19 high into Friday's low. That may suggest a decline back down to 547, the 38.2% retracement.

Jonathan Levinson : 10/24/2005 10:43:17 AM

As we've seen with the furor over the recent nomination to the Supreme Court, there's always room for surprises in the nomination to the office of the Fed Chairman- although I'd be very surprised if the choice position isn't taken with great care and preparation.

Tab Gilles : 10/24/2005 10:42:01 AM

Murphy Oil (MUR) Link Link

Linda Piazza : 10/24/2005 10:41:48 AM

Just noticed Jonathan's repo notation for the day. That is a caution for our bearish scalp, so may want to take quick profits, if offered.

Jeff Bailey : 10/24/2005 10:40:50 AM

S&P Banks Index (BIX.X) 340.95 +0.75% ... hold near morning highs after last week's test of WEEKLY R2 (first trade at a WEEKLY R2 since the week of 07/11-07/15).

Jonathan Levinson : 10/24/2005 10:40:32 AM

Volume breadth weakens to +4.11:1 on the NYSE, +2.51:1 on the Nasdaq, still well into positive territory.

Jeff Bailey : 10/24/2005 10:38:26 AM

U.S. Dollar Index (dx00y) 90.17 -0.21% (30-min. delayed) ... lower and morning lows here.

Linda Piazza : 10/24/2005 10:38:15 AM

OEX bearish scalpers want the advdec line to drop below 2300-2400. It's at 2699, QCharts value, as I type.

Jeff Bailey : 10/24/2005 10:37:36 AM

Treasuries calm with modest selling. Shorter-dated 5-year finds bulk of selling with yield ($FVX.X) up 2.1 bp at 4.280%. 10-year yield ($TNX.X) higher by 1.2 bp at 4.402% with 30-year ($TYX.X) unchanged at 4.609%.

Linda Piazza : 10/24/2005 10:37:19 AM

OEX Entry Point Alert
Entry at OEX 548.37, according to my quote source. November 555 put at 10.70 x 11.50 at entry, according to my quote source. Note: I'm not recommending this put or saying that you could have entered at that price, but only noting it for benchmarking purposes. It was noted just after the entry was uploaded on the MM.

Jeff Bailey : 10/24/2005 10:34:35 AM

Federal Reserve alert! ... CNBC reporting that as early as today, President Bush may name replacement for Alan Greenspan.

Tab Gilles : 10/24/2005 10:34:23 AM

President to name successor to Greenspan

Jonathan Levinson : 10/24/2005 10:33:22 AM

QQQQ's 72 SMA has risen to 38.66 here, a move below which would stall the longer intraday upphases. The 30 min channel bottom is up to 38.53, and the 60 min channel bottom is at 38.45. QQQQ bears need a move below the 72 SMA to challenge those channel lows. Anything less would look like a bullish consolidation at this point. Link

Linda Piazza : 10/24/2005 10:29:56 AM

OEX Entry Point Alert
For aggressive traders only, and I mean that: Enter a bearish OEX position. Stop 550.45. I'll follow this closely and let you know the profit target based on the advdec line actions, but don't enter this unless you, too, can follow the trade closely.

Jonathan Levinson : 10/24/2005 10:29:35 AM

Volume breadth is +5.58:1 on the NYSE, down to +2.67:1 on the Nasdaq.

Linda Piazza : 10/24/2005 10:28:05 AM

OEX Entry Point Alert
I'm considering a bearish entry again, but again it will be a scalp only and only for aggressive traders. Stand by.

Linda Piazza : 10/24/2005 10:26:03 AM

Advdec line tentatively bouncing from that just-tested support that I mentioned.

Jonathan Levinson : 10/24/2005 10:21:04 AM

Session high for Dec. gold at 468.80, -.30 for the day, and session low for ten year notes, -11/64 at 109 25/64.

Linda Piazza : 10/24/2005 10:20:11 AM

Watching the advdec line carefully as it tests 2300-2500-ish support. It's at 2695 as I type.

Jonathan Levinson : 10/24/2005 10:18:23 AM

The short cycle upphase is flatlining in overbought territory, potentially bearish, but a wavelet downphase has been in effect since before the surge to the QQQQ high and is now half done, still getting poor traction- potentially bullish for when it bottoms in the coming minutes. This feels like an extension of Friday's op-ex action so far, but hasn't been bearish. Link

Linda Piazza : 10/24/2005 10:17:24 AM

The OEX has just set a tentative upside target of 550.58 on its 15-minute chart, but the 30-minute says that it has some significant resistance just overhead, too, so there's a mixed picture. It did maintain a 15-minute close above the 50% retracement of the decline off the 10/19 high, however, although barely, and a close above the 15-minute 100/130-ema's. I have a feeling this will be a day when we'll look back and think the signals were so clear, but they're not right now. The advdec line is pulling back a bit as I type, but into first support, and we'll see how it acts there.

Jeff Bailey : 10/24/2005 10:13:56 AM

10:00 Internals found at this Link ... early morning NH/NL measures would be enough to have the 10-day NH/NL ratios reversing up at both the NYSE and NASDAQ.

Linda Piazza : 10/24/2005 10:13:04 AM

Advdec line dropping, but into possible strong support. OEX holding to the support of the 15-minute 100/130-ema's and may hold above the 50% retracement of the decline off the 10/19 high at this 15-minute close. That's not a good sign for a bearish play, if it does.

Bulls like this action, but need to be aware of possible resistance being reached on the advdec line, too.

Jonathan Levinson : 10/24/2005 10:12:34 AM

New session low for crude oil atg 59.35, -1.275. GOOG touches a new high at 349.30, up nearly 3% today.

Jonathan Levinson : 10/24/2005 10:10:37 AM

Interquote reports the total CBOE put to call ratio running at a neutral .75 here. Volume breadth continues to strengthen, +6.55:1 on the NYSE, +4.79:1 on the Nasdaq. The Nasdaq TRIN is down at .36, verging on extreme buying pressure, with the NYSE TRIN a more neutral but still-low .59.

Jeff Bailey : 10/24/2005 10:06:13 AM

Sell Program Premium ... DIA $102.72, SPX 1,188.37, QQQQ $38.77

Linda Piazza : 10/24/2005 10:05:11 AM

OEX Keltner picture: the 30-minute chart shows the OEX facing significant resistance up to 549.58 on 30-minute closes.

Advdec line has a potential of moving up to 3300 or so, currently at 2941.

Jonathan Levinson : 10/24/2005 10:03:01 AM

Crude oil -1.025 at 59.60, natgas -.19 at 12.975.

Linda Piazza : 10/24/2005 10:02:40 AM

The OEX is through the 50% retracement of the decline off Wednesday's high into Friday's low. That may suggest a test of the 61.8% retracement, at 549.61. Advdec line still climbing.

Jeff Bailey : 10/24/2005 10:02:36 AM

10:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 10/24/2005 10:02:10 AM

30 min channel resistance rises to 38.88, that cycle strong due to the bounce above the 72 SMA on the earlier dip.

Linda Piazza : 10/24/2005 10:01:33 AM

OEX Entry Point Alert
Cancel that potential entry signal.

Jonathan Levinson : 10/24/2005 10:01:15 AM

Session highs printing for QQQQ: Link

Linda Piazza : 10/24/2005 10:00:08 AM

OEX currently testing the 50% retracement of the decline off the 10/19 high into Friday's low.

Linda Piazza : 10/24/2005 9:58:53 AM

OEX Entry Point Alert
Still watching as the neckline of that inverse H&S is tested. Don't want to get in a bearish play if it's going to burst through that neckline. Stand by.

Jonathan Levinson : 10/24/2005 9:58:52 AM

Session low for 10-yr notes here at 109 25/64, TNX up 1.6 bps at 4.406%, as QQQQ holds the top of its premarket range.

Jonathan Levinson : 10/24/2005 9:57:18 AM

A 6B overnight repo, all add, has just been announced. The stop out rate rose 1 bp to 3.7, still 5 bps below the target rate, up from Friday's 3.69 reading and indicating a slightly higher demand for the Fed's overnight money.

Linda Piazza : 10/24/2005 9:56:13 AM

OEX Entry Point Alert
I'm considering a bearish entry, but it will be a scalp only and only for aggressive traders. Stand by.

Jonathan Levinson : 10/24/2005 9:54:36 AM

Volume breadth is up to +5.15:1 on the NYSE, +3.2:1 on the Nasdaq. Awaiting the Fed's repo decision any minute.

Linda Piazza : 10/24/2005 9:53:50 AM

I'm seeing some bearish value/RSI divergences on the advdec line.

Jeff Bailey : 10/24/2005 9:49:24 AM

Cendant (CD) $20.58 +2.28% ... atop this morning's most actives after the conglomerate said it will split into 4 companies by summer of 2006.

One of the companies will take over Cendant's hospitality business (Ramada and Howard Johnson brands), with each of the other three focusing on single areas of real estate, travel bookings and car rentals.

Linda Piazza : 10/24/2005 9:48:36 AM

There's been no pullback at all in the advdec line as it tests resistance. As long as it maintains levels above about 2300, it looks as if it could go on climbing or at least moving sideways the rest of the day. It's at 2580, QCharts value, as I type, but looking extended. Until and unless it pulls back, though, it's impossible to predict whether the pullback will be minor and we're in the midst of a breakout day or whether the OEX just zoomed up to first resistance and is going to roll over again. No signals for me, unfortunately.

If you are in a bullish play from Friday, you need to be guarding your profits in case there's another pullback. I didn't suggest such a play and so don't have any idea of the entry levels for any who are in bullish plays, but just don't let profits turn into losses in this market.

Jonathan Levinson : 10/24/2005 9:48:35 AM

So far, the short cycle upphase delivered all of its punch before the opening bell, and is getting no traction here as it approaches overbought territory. Link

Jonathan Levinson : 10/24/2005 9:46:08 AM

QQQQ returns to its premarket range, bouncing from 2 cents above the 72 SMA support line at 38.61.

Linda Piazza : 10/24/2005 9:44:59 AM

Advdec line pushing higher. Here's the OEX 15-minute picture: The OEX is pausing below 547.77-547.99 Keltner resistance on 15-minute closes, but so far holding above 546.72 support into this first 15-minute close. As long as it maintains 15-minute closes above that level, it's likely to go on challenging resistance, but this resistance slapped the OEX back on at least two occasions late last week, so it's strong.

Jonathan Levinson : 10/24/2005 9:44:39 AM

Volume breadth weakens to +3.43:1 on the NYSE, +3.20:1 on the Nasdaq, still very firm.

Jonathan Levinson : 10/24/2005 9:41:48 AM

Ten year notes have strengthened while 13-week bills have weakened, flattening the yield curve further. TNX is down to a .8 bp gain at 4.398%, while IRX is up to a 2 bp gain at 3.785%.

Linda Piazza : 10/24/2005 9:40:42 AM

I'm in a wait-and-see mode now, as the advdec line climbed straight up into strong resistance, and the neckline of the inverse H&S was tested but the formation not confirmed. A pullback into the right shoulder area could be next, but I don't see a clear interpretation of what's happening, with the OEX having already hit what would have been my first target. I'm going to have to see what happens on the advdec line pullback to see whether I think it's likely that there will be another push higher or that was it. Difficult to interpret at this point and no clear signal now for me.

Jonathan Levinson : 10/24/2005 9:37:14 AM

There's no way to tell if the strength in QQQQ this morning is sustainable, or whether it's an extension of Friday's op-ex range as positions get rolled and reset as a result of expiry. QQQQ remains heavier than its peers, despite a short cycle upphase that is still in progress from this AM's open. Link

Jeff Bailey : 10/24/2005 9:35:51 AM

Dow Industials (INDU) 10,290 +0.72% ... strong early with breadth decidedly positive at 28 : 2.

AXP $48.14 +2.12%, VZ $30.07 +1.86%, HD $40.17 +1.31%, CAT $49.55 +1.30% ... IBM $83.05 -0.33%, PFE $21.21 -0.18%

Linda Piazza : 10/24/2005 9:35:34 AM

Unfortunately, unless you were long from Friday, you likely would have had a difficult time participating in this climb this morning. It happened too soon and with too much speed. Now I'm going to have to watch to see how the internals look as this resistance is being tested. The OEX is pulling back a little from the test of the 15-minute 100/130-ema's, but not much.

Linda Piazza : 10/24/2005 9:34:13 AM

The advdec line has already climbed straight into first resistance, too.

Linda Piazza : 10/24/2005 9:33:48 AM

OEX 15-minute 100/130-ema's at 547.74-548.11 coming up. A 15-minute close above them will set up a confirmation of the inverse H&S on the OEX's 15-minute chart. This is likely resistance, though, unless the OEX is going to just plow through everything.

Linda Piazza : 10/24/2005 9:32:38 AM

There's the OEX quote. Unfortunately, the OEX has already moved up far toward what would have been my first profit target, at about 547.25 or so. It's moving far toward the inverse H&S neckline's resistance.

Jonathan Levinson : 10/24/2005 9:32:35 AM

QQQQ and NQ are lagging their peers this morning.

Linda Piazza : 10/24/2005 9:31:34 AM

If my other quote source is correct, the OEX has gapped up quite a bit, making a bullish entry problematic.

Jonathan Levinson : 10/24/2005 9:31:21 AM

Volume breadth is +4.42:1 on the NYSE and +4.09:1 on the Nasdaq at the open.

Linda Piazza : 10/24/2005 9:30:45 AM

Charts giving me problems. Advdec line is setting up for a potential bullish entry, but I can't see OEX quotes.

Jonathan Levinson : 10/24/2005 9:02:44 AM

QQQQ finished with the 60 min cycle turning up early from a downphase and the 30 min cycle turning down, both near the tops of their ranges. This followed a basically sideways, choppy session on Friday. This morning's strength has the 60 min cycle gathering strength to the upside and the 30 min cycle reversing up. The daily continues its upphase.

The intraday cycles trading in unison to the upside is a bullish setup. The oscillators turning up early from a higher low with price holding at recent highs is potentially bearish-divergent if the oscillators don't make it up to the tops of their ranges before the price breaks back down. Because this is post-opex Monday, bullish traders need to be careful of a whipsaw in the price. 72 SMA support is at 38.62, and is first key support below which the intraday cycles will stall. Below 38.44, they will turn down. Here's a 4 day 100-tick chart of the QQQQ: Link

Linda Piazza : 10/24/2005 9:01:19 AM

What about for Monday, I wrote in the MM late Friday afternoon? I had mentioned early Friday morning that until the OEX broke out of its pattern, it was likely still doing its churning thing after a big move, and that we were likely to continue seeing big moves one direction reversed the next day, with perhaps a doji day sprinkled in here and there for good effect. We got the doji day Friday, or at least a near-doji day since there was a small real body. Be aware that the OEX usually does at least attempt a climb the next trading day when it's produced a similar doji in its churning-around pattern. We occasionally have a break from that pattern, so it's not set in stone, but the presumption this morning should be that we'll see a bounce attempt.

There was a potential inverse H&S on the OEX's 15-minute chart Friday, with the right shoulder in the process of being built. On a Keltner basis, the OEX still looked vulnerable to a decline to 543.22 and it hasn't done much right-shoulder building just yet, so the possibility for some small churning between the 543.20-545.43 still exists, in my viewpoint. There was no such churning as the left shoulder was formed, so may not be with this right shoulder, either, but before entering any bullish plays, I'd certainly give that possibility some consideration.

We'll be looking for a bullish entry today, but I, for one, am going to wait until I see what the internals look like before calling any trades, and that may mean that we miss the first climb. Make your own decision as to whether you want to enter at the open, but I'll be waiting before giving a bullish entry signal.

A couple of notes about signals: Remember that my signals usually require choosing a high-delta option in order to make a profit, because the moves are often scalping moves. Sometimes they turn into more, but that's how they're entered, as scalping moves. Such options are ITM options and usually at least a few points ITM. At this point in the opex cycle, they're going to be expensive. I know that there are subscribers out there who have small accounts, and so a purchase of an ITM option is going to take up a hefty proportion of your trading account, perhaps an unhealthy proportion. It might be better to look for a different opportunity than a scalping one with an expensive option. One possibility is just waiting a while later in the opex cycle. My signals should come along often enough that you can find something later in the opex cycle, and I personally think everyone out there should be watching my trades before deciding if you want to enter them anyway. I've been giving unofficial "if you're an aggressive OEX trader" suggestions for a while now, and so perhaps some of you have followed those comments long enough that you already feel comfortable, but I would never suggest blindly following any commentator's suggestions without checking them out for yourself, not even mine.

Also, I may be called away from the MM for periods this week due to further difficulties my granddaughter experienced this weekend, so I'm not going to want to give a signal unless it's a good one and can be followed by traders after entry without me necessarily being here to complete the play. Most of the time when I warn of these possible interruptions in my work day, they don't materialize, but I want to let you know up front what could happen.

Jonathan Levinson : 10/24/2005 8:47:08 AM

With the Fed's Friday open market operations conducted via 6-day repos, any amounts added today will be net adds. QQQQ was firm on Friday and outperformed its peers, and continues to hold near Thursday and Friday's highs. The bullish repo setup for today was known from 10AM Friday, and the only question is whether the net add will be a large one or not. We will find out just before 10AM this morning.

Jonathan Levinson : 10/24/2005 8:24:18 AM

Ten year notes hold a small loss at the cash open, TNX currently +1.4 bps at 4.404%, attempting to regain the key 4.4% support line breached on Friday. IRX is up .7 bps at 3.772%.

Jonathan Levinson : 10/24/2005 7:57:18 AM

MIAMI (Reuters) - Hurricane Wilma made landfall on Florida's southwest Gulf Coast on Monday as a powerful Category 3 storm capable of causing structural damage to buildings, the U.S. National Hurricane Center said.

Wilma, once the most powerful hurricane ever observed in the Atlantic, had winds of 125 mph (200 kph) when it came ashore around Cape Romano, near the city of Naples, the center said.


Jonathan Levinson : 10/24/2005 7:51:38 AM

Equities are in a bounce that found its legs with Europe's open, ES currently trading 1186.25, NQ 1578, YM 10265 and QQQQ +.17 at 38.72 and testing Friday's highs. Gold is down 2.4 at 466.70, silver -.023 at 7.665, ten year notes +1/64 at 109 35/64, crude oil -.925 at 59.70 and natgas -.26 at 12.905.

Although this will be a heavy week for economic data, there are no economic reports scheduled for release today.

Linda Piazza : 10/24/2005 7:21:00 AM

Good morning. The Nikkei closed in negative territory last night, and most other Asian markets did, too. European markets show strong gains, however. As of 7:09 EST, gold was lower by $2.40 to $466.70, and crude, by $0.93 to $59.70. Our futures were positive. More details about Asian and European markets follows in succeeding paragraphs.

Last night, the Nikkei started off in positive territory, but soon tumbled. It closed lower by 93.77 points or 0.71%, at 13,106.18. Pioneer's warning that its annual net loss may widen and news media speculation that NEC may show a loss for the full-year profit sent tech stocks lower. Many computer-related companies will report later this week. KDDI Corp. and Seiko Epson were two tech stocks that gained in early trading, with both reporting earnings. Automakers rose in early trading ahead of their sales figures, released later. Morgan Stanley recommended Toyota to investors and a newspaper speculated that its earnings next week would probably show record sales for the first half. There was also speculation that it might see a 7% decline in group operating profit for the first half of the fiscal year, although it was unclear whether both speculations were included in the same article. Isuzu Motors Ltd. was also gaining after speculation that it would take over GM's commercial truck operations in Australia and South Africa. Bank Mizuho Financial Group fell as it offered shares to raise money to repay funds from a government bailout. In other news, according to the Asian version of the Wall Street Journal, Seven-Eleven Japan Co. will acquire the U.S.'s Seven Eleven.

During the day, several economic releases occurred. September's Auto Production by the top five manufacturers rose 0.7% year over year. Nissan and Honda fell year over year, but Toyota eked out a 0.3% year-over-year gain, the first such gain in four months. Mitsubishi had easy comparisons with last year, after a year plagued by scandal, and that company showed the strongest year-over-year gain, with Mazda next. In another release, September's Department Store Sales increased 0.8% year over year. August's numbers had been down. Supermarket sales fell 1.9% year over year.

Most other Asian markets declined, too. Taiwan has begun production of its own version of Tamiflu. The Taiwan Weighted lost 0.37%, but South Korea's Kospi was the lone Asian bourse that closed positive, eking out a 0.09% gain. Steel company Posco helped it eke out that gain, after Posco announced that it would be the first South Korean company to list its stock in Japan. Singapore's Straits Times dropped 0.74%, and Hong Kong's Hang Seng fell 0.59%. China's Shanghai Composite lost only 0.01%. China has come under increasing pressure to take the next step toward making the yuan more flexible. Reuters has reported that Macquarie Infrastructure Fund will take a 38% position in Changshu Xinghua port. This is a port west of Shanghai along the Yangtze River, used as a multi-purpose cargo port.

European markets gain despite one troubling economic release, with declining crude prices and Schering's earnings report buoying sentiment. The EU12 Current Account Deficit showed a widening to the largest deficit in almost five years, brought about by a narrowing in the merchandise trade balance. In another release this morning, the Eurozone's August Industrial Orders declined 0.1% month over month against a revised 1.6% decline in June. Germany's 4.1% month-over-month decline drove the Eurozone number lower, despite gains in Italy and France. Transportation was the industry seeing the biggest decline. Year over year, the figure climbed 7.5% to a high for 2005. Other figures, such as industrial production and manufacturing PMI, suggest that the orders number may see a recovery soon. In the U.K., figures released last night showed that the UK Hometrack House Price Index fell 3.5% year over year in October and 0.1% month over month. The decline was at a slightly lower rate than September's, showing that the weakness might be moderating. Expectations had been for a decline of 0.2% month over month. The number of prospective buyers and transactions both rose, but so did the number of properties for sale.

The declining crude prices helped oil-sensitive sectors such as the chemical sector. One of Total's refineries resumes operations today, contributing to crude's decline. Goldman Sachs helped the resource stocks after it upgraded steel company Arcelor and the European steel sector. Deal talk surfaced, with Spain's Banco Sandander Central Hispano SA reportedly deep in talks to buy Philadelphia's Sovereign Bancorp Inc., and Ericsson and Alcatel reportedly both vying for U.K. telecom equipment maker Marconi.

As of 6:57 EST, the FTSE 100 had gained 51.60 points or 1.00%, to trade at 5,193.70. The CAC 40 had gained 34.76 points or 0.80%, to trade at 4,401.28. The DAX had gained 42.23 points or 0.87%, to trade at 4,880.63.

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