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Jeff Bailey : 10/27/2005 1:03:52 AM

e-mini S&P (es05z) down 5.00 points at 1,191.00

Jeff Bailey : 10/27/2005 1:01:23 AM

December Gold (gc05z) up 2.40 at $475.40.

Jeff Bailey : 10/27/2005 1:00:27 AM

U.S. Dollar Index (dx00y) alert ... 89.12 -0.11% ... breaking below correlative DAILY S2 and WEEKLY S2 (89.20)

Jeff Bailey : 10/27/2005 12:15:55 AM

December Unleaded (hu05z) flat at $1.62.

Jeff Bailey : 10/27/2005 12:15:14 AM

December Heating Oil (ho05z) flat at $1.90.

Jeff Bailey : 10/27/2005 12:14:19 AM

December Natural Gas (ng05z) down $0.09 at $13.97.

Jeff Bailey : 10/27/2005 12:12:58 AM

December Crude Oil (cl05z) up $0.20 at $60.86.

Jeff Bailey : 10/27/2005 12:11:42 AM

mini Dow (ym05z) down 30 points at 10,344.

Jeff Bailey : 10/27/2005 12:09:17 AM

e-mini NASDAQ (nq05z) down 8.5 points at 1,577.50.

Jeff Bailey : 10/27/2005 12:07:59 AM

e-mini S&P (es05z) down 6 points and rather active this time of night at 1,190.00

Keene Little : 10/27/2005 12:05:36 AM

Hey Jeff, that's not why the futures tanked after 11:30 PM is it?

Jeff Bailey : 10/27/2005 12:02:53 AM

Congratulations to the Chicago White Sox. Baseball's World Champions!

Jeff Bailey : 10/26/2005 11:36:12 PM

Program Trading Levels for Thursday ... HL Camp & Company has their computers set for program buying at $+4.37 and set for selling at $+1.45.

OI Technical Staff : 10/26/2005 9:59:59 PM

The Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

Disclaimer: Stocks discussed in the Market Monitor are for educational purposes only and any analysis is not meant to imply a recommendation for or against that stock. The analysts in this forum as on any other website are prohibited by the SEC from giving any specific advice to ANY individual trader. All information posted is for ALL readers and is not meant to be directed to any individual. Our analysts cannot answer any email questions regarding any specific stock. Please do not ask and please do not take offense if requests are denied.

Results posted in the Market Monitor are hypothetical and OIN does not claim that any reader achieved these exact results. Due to the lag time between research, writing, posting, uploading, reading and execution there will be differences between the actual signal given and the fill achieved by the reader. Fills may be better or worse but in most cases they will be different. The writers will make every effort to give advance notice of intended signals and indicate potential price targets. Your individual results may vary depending on your activity level and aggressiveness. This forum is intended as an education service only. Trading involves risk and should not be attempted by anyone not ready to accept this risk. By acting on any signal in this forum you agree and personally accept this risk.

Tab Gilles : 10/26/2005 8:34:42 PM

$NASI/$NAHL/$VXN/$NDX As indicated on 10:35 AM post, I would exit the position on Profund USPIX and enter a 1/2 position UOPIX (adding on a break over 1600 $NDX). Link

Exited USPIX @ $16.89 which was entered @ $17.36 on 10/6 (-2.7%). Entered UOPIX 1/2 position @ $22.66. Link

Jeff Bailey : 10/26/2005 6:48:27 PM

Placer Dome (PDG) $16.08 -2.24% Link , Bema Gold (BGO) $2.41% Link and Arizona Star Resources (AZS.V) $4.40 -1.12% Link reach agreement in principle, whereby Placer Dome will sell its interest in Compania Minera Casale, the company holding the Cerro Casale project, to Bema and Arizona Star in return for contingent payments.

Bema and Arizona Star will jointly pay to Placer Dome $10 million upon a decision to construct a mine at Cerro Casale and either (a) a gold payment beginning 12 months after commencement of production consisting of 10,000 ounces of gold per year for five years and 20,000 of gold per year for a subsequent seven years; or (b) a cash payment of $70 million payable when a construction decision is made, at the election of Bema and Arizona Star.

Placer Dome President and CEO Peter Tomsett said: "We did not see a reasonable likelihood of Cerro Casale meeting our current investment requirements. Completing this agreement will allow us to focus our efforts and resources on project development opportunities that will add greater value to our shareholders while recovering our expenditure on Cerro Casale should a mine be developed."

Jeff Bailey : 10/26/2005 6:43:10 PM

Pride Intl. (PDE) $26.98 -0.55% Link ... Announcing Gulf of Mexico jackup contracts. Sees $26 million in revenue.

Jeff Bailey : 10/26/2005 6:33:50 PM

Closing U.S. Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 10/26/2005 6:28:07 PM

50/50 NH and NL at NYSE, NASDAQ and AMEX found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 10/26/2005 6:18:13 PM

Closing Internals found at this Link ... Today's closing action does have the NASDAQ 10-day NH/NL ratio reversing up 3 boxes to 28%, plus an additional box to 30%. Updated NASDAQ NH/NL ratio chart at this Link mm=&Path=/oin/mm/chartlink/595_10262005030425 ... Number of new lows at the NYSE start to rebuild a bit. Most bearish was 319 on 10/13/05 and then 235 on 10/19/05.

Jeff Bailey : 10/26/2005 5:27:53 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles found at this Link ... Today's Activity ... Wild action at the open had us being stopped out of the remaining 1/2 short in Xilinx (XLNX) $23.29 -1.01% at the offer of $23.60 ($-0.16, or -0.68%).

We were also stopped out of the 1/2 bullish positiion in Lucent Tech (LU) $2.93 -5.78% at the bid of $3.05 ($-0.13, or -4.09%).

Then turned and shorted 1/2 position in Nortel (NT) at the bid of $3.41, stop $3.52, targeting $3.10.

Jeff Bailey : 10/26/2005 5:03:39 PM

Biogen Idec (BIIB) $40.05 -1.01% Link ... lower at $38.50 on headline numbers.

Jeff Bailey : 10/26/2005 5:02:36 PM

Volcom (VLCM) $28.50 +2.18% Link ... jumps to $31.50 on headine numbers. $0.47 per share vs. consensus of $0.29.

Jeff Bailey : 10/26/2005 5:00:11 PM

American Express (AXP) $50.14 +0.84% Link ... Friedman, Billings & Ramsey upping 12-month bullish target to $54.00 from $50.00.

Jeff Bailey : 10/26/2005 4:57:23 PM

Zoran (ZRAN) $12.88 +1.09% Link ... higher at $13.14 on headline numbers. $0.11 per share vs. consensus of $0.15.

Jeff Bailey : 10/26/2005 4:55:36 PM

Amkor Tech (AMKR) $4.37 -4.58% Link ... jumps to $4.70 on headline numbers.

Semiconductor HOLDRs (SMH) $33.98 -0.58% Link ... $33.91 in extended session.

Jeff Bailey : 10/26/2005 4:49:01 PM

Eaton Vance alert ... DJ - Quarterly closed-end fund data now available at company's websit at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 10/26/2005 4:45:24 PM

Imperial Oil (AMEX:IMO) $90.41 -0.74% Link ... lower at $89.78. Cuts Edmonton par crude by C$22 Cubic Meter.

Jeff Bailey : 10/26/2005 4:43:14 PM

Wright Express (WXS) $20.02 -1.37% ... ticks higher at $20.20 on headline numbers. $0.43 vs. consensus $0.29. $0.43 includes one-time gain of $0.18 a share.

Jeff Bailey : 10/26/2005 4:37:04 PM

Raymond James (RJF) $33.15 +1.43% ... broker ticks higher at $33.15 on headline numbers. $0.59 vs. $0.50 consensus.

Jeff Bailey : 10/26/2005 4:34:12 PM

WellChoice (WC) $74.61 -2.34% ... ticks unchanged on headline numbers.

Jeff Bailey : 10/26/2005 4:30:13 PM

Siebel Systems (SEBL) $10.35 (unch) ... ticks higher at $10.41 on headline quarter numbers.

Oracle (ORCL) $12.66 -2.39% ... marked higher at $12.72. ORCL / SEBL looking to merge.

Jeff Bailey : 10/26/2005 4:28:53 PM

Chevron (CVX) $57.66 -1.72% ... ticks unchanged. Announces quarterly dividend of $0.45 per share, payable December 12, 2005, to stockholders of record as of November 18, 2005.

Jeff Bailey : 10/26/2005 4:26:00 PM

DJ - House defeats measure to curb Fannie, Freddie portfolios.

Jeff Bailey : 10/26/2005 4:23:17 PM

Forest Labs (FRX) $36.90 +0.59% ... lower at $36.90 after company announces that the Federal District Court, District of Deleware has rescheduled the start of its pending litigations trial regarding Lexapro from December 5, 2005 to March 15, 2006.

Forest Labs saying it remains confident in the strength and validity of the Lexapro patent.

Jeff Bailey : 10/26/2005 4:19:41 PM

Callaway Golf (ELY) $13.34 -0.22% ... ticking higher at $13.47 on headline numbers.

Jeff Bailey : 10/26/2005 4:18:24 PM

Sallie Mae (SLM) $55.09 -0.10% ... steady at $55.09 in extended session (light trade).

Jeff Bailey : 10/26/2005 4:16:41 PM

Studen Loan alert ... DJ - US House Panel votes to cut student loan subsidies.

Jeff Bailey : 10/26/2005 4:15:56 PM

LSI Logic (LSI) $8.36 -1.76% ... lower at $8.04 on headline earnings.

Jeff Bailey : 10/26/2005 4:15:18 PM

Digital River (DRIV) $37.48 -2.19% ... lower at $34.10 on headline earnings.

Jeff Bailey : 10/26/2005 4:14:02 PM

Buy Program Premium ... DIA $103.50 , SPY $119.37

Linda Piazza : 10/26/2005 4:02:05 PM

Remember that I will likely be out the first part of the morning tomorrow and almost certainly will be out at the open. No Asia/Europe report tomorrow morning.

Linda Piazza : 10/26/2005 4:00:19 PM

OEX Trade Recap
Entry at 551.57. Exit at 554.30, for a 2.73-point move against the position.

This week has been a frustrating one for me, in the extreme. Monday's entry saw a small loss, with the first profit taken, but with the Bernanke announcement ruining the play and with me, in my novice state calling plays, just unable to get the exit I wanted posted quickly enough. Yesterday, I was set to call a play when a family emergency called me away and I wasn't sure when I returned whether I'd be called away again and so missed a play I would have called and that would have been profitable. Today's play was just one of those that doesn't go as expected, with the play showing one of the shortcomings of my methodology, because unrealized losses (and realized ones, as today) are sometimes bigger than wanted. Then, a reasonable setup occurred later, but in my novice state again and because of this morning's failure, I wanted a perfect setup and not a reasonable one. I said last week I'd make mistakes, and I will. When I'm trading my own account, matters are much different than they are up here. I don't have to post an entry. I set my stops based on the action of the advdec line and so don't have to figure out where they would be based on the OEX price--which makes a huge difference in profitability, I think--and I don't have to wait for the perfect setup. I can make more judgment calls.

I will be fine-tuning as I go. I advised last week that you paper trade these and not take them automatically, as you don't know whether they'll fit your trading style or not, and that's still what I would suggest.

Jeff Bailey : 10/26/2005 3:59:01 PM

La Quinta (LQI) $7.99 -0.12% ... DJ - Fitch affirms its 'BB-' for the company's senior unsecured notes and 'BB' to the senior credit facility.

Fitch said La Quinta's ratings reflect the company's solid market position as a leading limited service lodging provider, its high quality asset portfolio, an improved credit profile, robust lodging fundamentals, and Fitch's expectation for a strong 2006. Also considered is management's strong track record of executing on operational goals. Management has delivered on its stated goals to divest the health care assets (completed fourth quarter 2002), launch a successful franchise program, upgrade assets to improve future performance, and expand its hotel system through strategic acquisitions. Rating concerns include expanded capital expenditures in the near term, acquisition risk, and pricing transparency due to proliferation of information on the internet and expansion of third party sellers.

Linda Piazza : 10/26/2005 3:58:43 PM

OEX testing that rising trendline, and it looks as if it's going to end the day there, leaving us in suspense.

Jeff Bailey : 10/26/2005 3:55:07 PM

Canadian High Yield Trust (TSE:HYB.U) ... DJ - Canadian High Yield Fund (HYB.UN.T) plans to buy back up to 1,077,963 of its trust units, representing 10% of the public float, through the facilities of the Toronto Stock Exchange.

In a news release, the fund said the buyback will start Nov. 1 and end by Oct. 31, 2006.

In the last 12 months under its previous buyback, the fund purchased 83,600 of its units at an average price of C$14.31 each.

Linda Piazza : 10/26/2005 3:44:07 PM

If you're in a bearish play and haven't yet taken partial profit, here's the place to do it.

Linda Piazza : 10/26/2005 3:42:56 PM

The OEX is headed straight down toward the ascending trendline off last week's low, with that trendline at 550.70 currently, and with the OEX just a few cents above that. The 30-minute 100/130-ema's are congruent with that trendline, at 550.55 and 550.77, respectively. If you look at the 30-minute chart, you see the possibility for a steadying there, with a rise into the right shoulder for another potential H&S with the right shoulder somewhere just above 554.

Jeff Bailey : 10/26/2005 3:40:51 PM

Sell Program Premium ... DIA $103.46, SPX 1,193.09, QQQQ $38.80

Jonathan Levinson : 10/26/2005 3:40:05 PM

QQQQ's short cycle upphase is losing it here, never made it to overbought territory and coming in for a test of yesterday's low. A close below 38.78 could set up a key outside reversal day- higher high closing at lower low below the prior day low: Link

Linda Piazza : 10/26/2005 3:37:21 PM

It looks as if you could have scalped a point or so back and forth all afternoon between the OEX's 10-minute 100-ema, currently at 551.74, and 553.48. I don't know that I'd try it now, though, with MOC orders about to hit.

Linda Piazza : 10/26/2005 3:27:59 PM

I would normally be looking for a late-day bearish entry today, hoping to see a spike that sent the OEX higher but created a bearish signal while doing so. However, I will be out early tomorrow, perhaps until mid-morning and will not be able to watch the markets and guide you. I will not be doing the Asia/Europe report. I'll let you know what I'm seeing, though, as the close draws close.

Linda Piazza : 10/26/2005 3:24:55 PM

I don't think the newest H&S on the OEX's five and ten-minute chart has any validity any longer. The right shoulder has taken far too long to form. Yesterday about this time, we were watching another H&S on the OEX's 10 and 15--minute charts, with the neckline also along the 15-minute 100/130-ema's. That one looked close to confirming when yesterday's late-day bounce soared higher and invalidated it. It's memories of that and of this morning's failed setup that made me want to get the best entry possible if a new bearish play was entered.

Jonathan Levinson : 10/26/2005 3:22:16 PM

Stepping away for 15 minutes.

Jonathan Levinson : 10/26/2005 3:22:03 PM

QQQQ is just hugging the rising support line here, the short cycle upphase getting little traction. Nasdaq volume breadth holds neutral-negative at -1.32:1. Link

Linda Piazza : 10/26/2005 3:20:56 PM

I may be glad that I didn't issue that bearish entry, as frustrating as it was to watch the OEX decline today.

Linda Piazza : 10/26/2005 3:16:50 PM

I have had a bearish entry prepared for hours. I keep changing my mind about the ideal entry point. The truth is that the ideal entry was missed and that nothing else has been ideal. The advdec line has so far been finding resistance at a line that's now at -1075, but strong support is below. The OEX is churning between about 553.60 and the 551.25. While I think it likely that the OEX will eventually break below the rising trendline off last week's low, the advdec line setup leaves open the possibility of a late-day move like yesterday's.

Jeff Bailey : 10/26/2005 3:12:20 PM

03:00 Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 10/26/2005 3:02:31 PM

03:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 10/26/2005 3:02:26 PM

This is a very weak short cycle upphase so far, which makes sense as it's swimming against the broader 30 min cycle downphase. Pulling back a bit, the longer cycle appears to be cresting, giving the price action that rough head and shoulders appearance that Linda notes: Link

Linda Piazza : 10/26/2005 2:56:30 PM

If this right shoulder on the OEX's newest potential H&S extends too long, then the action begins to look suspect.

Jonathan Levinson : 10/26/2005 2:54:26 PM

Crude oil finished -1.775 at 60.675, natgas -.425 at 14.035 in a wild session. Crude closed 2.30 off its intraday high.

Linda Piazza : 10/26/2005 2:42:02 PM

Advdec line hitting potential support again.

Linda Piazza : 10/26/2005 2:40:26 PM

The OEX's inverse H&S failed. Now there's a potential regular H&S (best viewed on the five-minute chart) with a neckline at 551.23. OEX at 551.85 as I type. The rising trendline off last week's low is at about 550.40 as I type, though, with the 15-minute 100/130-ema's just above that, so I think I'd want to see 15-minute close below those averages, now at 551.02 and 550.65 before I considered that formation confirmed.

Jeff Bailey : 10/26/2005 2:38:01 PM

Exxon Mobil (XOM) $56.60 -1.10% ... probes morning lows.

Jonathan Levinson : 10/26/2005 2:37:30 PM

Volume breadth -1.39:1 on the NYSE, -1.53:1 on the Nasdaq.

Jeff Bailey : 10/26/2005 2:35:41 PM

Sell Program Premium ... DIA $103.68, SPX 1,195.46, QQQQ $38.93

Jonathan Levinson : 10/26/2005 2:33:06 PM

Back with QQQQ still rattling in its slot between 38.96-39.01. Volume is steady, and the short cycle bulls are trying to get it going here- a break above 39.01 targets 39.08, above which the new upphase would confirm. Below 38.93, and a possible bear wedge/flag failure will target the session low. Link

Jeff Bailey : 10/26/2005 2:30:45 PM

Research in Motion (RIMM $55.57 -3.2% alert ... released for trade.

Linda Piazza : 10/26/2005 2:30:11 PM

I'm watching, so carefully, as the advdec line climbs again. The line that was serving as support all morning is now at -165, with resistance broadly from -338 up to -165. The advdec line is now forming a likely bear flag in which it climbs, about to test -900 support again near the bottom of that flag.

By the way, the advdec line has already confirmed a small inverse H&S on its three-minute chart and now this pullback toward support is a pullback to test the neckline, among other levels of support.

Linda Piazza : 10/26/2005 2:23:40 PM

Advdec line still bouncing off its afternoon low. OEX bouncing up to test that neckline . . . just pressed above it as I typed. Bulls don't want to see a quick reversal. Bears, of course, do.

Linda Piazza : 10/26/2005 2:22:04 PM

There's a little potential inverse H&S on the OEX's five-minute chart, neckline about to be tested at about 553.50, with the OEX currently at 553.23. Upside target, if confirmed and if the target is met, two big "if's" at this point, would be the previous HOD at 555.77.

Jeff Bailey : 10/26/2005 2:14:56 PM

02:00 Internals found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 10/26/2005 2:13:40 PM

Stepping away for a few minutes.

Jonathan Levinson : 10/26/2005 2:10:28 PM

Zooming out to a compressed 6 day view, we see how the lower wedge supports keep breaking and then bouncing again. It requires a lot of courage to buy those lows: Link

Linda Piazza : 10/26/2005 2:07:51 PM

This is why I refused a new entry until I saw the advdec line bounce and that resistance held on the retest. The advdec line is bouncing, but the OEX is bouncing in greater degree, if that makes sense, leading the charge, as it's been doing a lot lately. A moderate bounce in the advdec line could have seen a new OEX high (and still could), with the advdec line eventually showing that former support held as resistance, but we could have been stopped out of the bearish play. I think it's possible that the OEX will be stopped now near 554.09, but I really hadn't hoped that it would shoot as high as it has right now ("hoped" because I'd like for a new bearish entry to set up as close to the previous HOD as possible), so it's a little like trying to "catch a tiger by the tail," to employ a trite phrase, to gauge what's going to happen.

Jonathan Levinson : 10/26/2005 2:03:47 PM

QQQQ breaks the prior high at 38.96, now testing the 39.01 line from below: Link

Jeff Bailey : 10/26/2005 2:02:49 PM

02:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 10/26/2005 2:01:13 PM

OEX bounce from the 10-minute 100/130-ema's, as I warned might happen. Now I'm watching the advdec line for a possible bounce and the OEX for possible resistance in the 553 zone.

Jonathan Levinson : 10/26/2005 1:55:53 PM

Session low for crude oil here in a big reversal, -1.15 at 61.30.

Jonathan Levinson : 10/26/2005 1:55:25 PM

QQQQ drops down to a near touch of the combined 30/60 channel bottoms at 38.80, lined up with yesterday's low. The 30 min channel has a long way to go to the bottom of its decline, but the price has bounced from similar readings in recent sessions. I'll be looking for a long with a tight stop just below yesterday's low to try to catch a short cycle upphase: Link

Jonathan Levinson : 10/26/2005 1:46:32 PM




Full text of the speech at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 10/26/2005 1:47:28 PM

Palm Inc. (PALM) $27.62 +2.75% Link ... WEEKLY R1 did get tested at $27.94

Jeff Bailey : 10/26/2005 1:45:15 PM

Research in Motion (RIMM) (update) ... Supreme Court deinies company's request to delay proceedings in a long-running patent dispute with NTP until the high court decided whether to consider an appeal in the case. The decision is viewed as a legal setback for RIM, which faces the possibility of being barred from offering its popular BlackBerry service in the U.S. as an outcome of the case.

Linda Piazza : 10/26/2005 1:44:17 PM

Advdec line now on potentially strong support. The OEX has already tested the important 10-minute 100/130-ema's, during the 1:20 ten-minute candle. It may come down to do so again, so bears who entered at the test of the top of the broadening formation or who might have stayed in from our original bearish entry today have another opportunity to exit all or part of their positions. Those averages are at 551.52 and 551.09, respectively. Those who were in from the rollover beneath the broadening formation would be considering a taking partial or full profits, of course, while those still in the bearish play from this morning (although it's official stopped out) would be considering a BE or near breakeven exit. The advdec line still continues lower, but it's been acting a bit strangely today, so it's difficult to give advice.

Jeff Bailey : 10/26/2005 1:41:21 PM

Research in Motion (RIMM) $53.74 -6.37% (halted alert) Link ...

Jeff Bailey : 10/26/2005 1:38:55 PM

Apache Corp. (APA) $63.93 -1.14% ... turns defensive.

November Nat. Gas futures (ng05x) $14.21 -0.89% (30-min. delayed) expire tomorrow. Expect a very wild and volatile session.

Linda Piazza : 10/26/2005 1:38:41 PM

No bounce in the advdec line. The second bearish entry of the day should have been this morning, at the close of the 11:30 fifteen-minute candle.

Jeff Bailey : 10/26/2005 1:34:34 PM

Current OPEN MM profiles found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 10/26/2005 1:33:33 PM

Volume breadth is -1.23:1 on the NYSE, -1.24:1 on the Nasdaq, just below neutral.

Jonathan Levinson : 10/26/2005 1:31:30 PM

Session low for Dec. gold here at 472.80, -1.90. The high remains 476.

Linda Piazza : 10/26/2005 1:30:04 PM

It's not usual to see the advdec line zoom from significant support to significant resistance and back toward significant support, which it's done already today. Currently, it's looking as if there's more weakness in store, perhaps after a bounce.

Jonathan Levinson : 10/26/2005 1:26:13 PM

The QQQQ lows here are at support on the multiple keltners, close enough for a long with a 10 cent stop, but I'm not taking it because the 30 min cycle is in the opening stages of a new downphase. If the bulls can't regain 39.10 support to stall that downphase, these support levels should continue to work their way lower. Link

Linda Piazza : 10/26/2005 1:22:53 PM

The advdec line is now approaching strong support at -950 or so, down to -1200. It's at -647 as I type, QCharts value.

Jeff Bailey : 10/26/2005 1:21:35 PM

Xilinx (XLNX) $23.35 -0.76% ... probes morning lows. :(

Jonathan Levinson : 10/26/2005 1:21:32 PM

QQQQ tests lower wedge support here at 38.90, the 30 min channel bottom declining now. Yesterday's 38.78 low is the last ditch for the bulls, below which we will have a bear wedge break targeting 38.15 and last week's 37.60 support. Compressed chart at this Link

Linda Piazza : 10/26/2005 1:21:09 PM

I know that there are likely some who did not take the stop today on the bearish play. I just know that some are unwilling to take losses, particularly big ones. If you're one of those, you need to know that the often-important 10-minute 100/130-ema's for the OEX are at 551.05 and 551.50, near our original entry. A test of those, possibly upcoming, could offer you a breakeven exit. The advdec line is dipping back below support, but it has not retested that support and the OEX has been doing wild things while the advdec line climbs just a little, so make up your mind what you want to do. If this were a typical period, I'd say you're probably okay to stay in, but weird things have been happening.

Linda Piazza : 10/26/2005 1:15:48 PM

No bounce on the advdec line and I got too cute with the entry, too gun-shy to call it when I first saw it but wanted more confirmation. I'll look for a bounce now to get us in.

Jeff Bailey : 10/26/2005 1:14:38 PM

01:00 Internals found at this Link

Tab Gilles : 10/26/2005 1:14:12 PM

20+ Year Bond Fund (TLT) Link

Jonathan Levinson : 10/26/2005 1:09:39 PM

There was very little meat on this bounce, but the short cycle indicators haven't fully reversed upward either. The 30 min channel has rolled over, and any bounce should have a problem getting past 39.20. QQQQ is in the process of losing that upturn as I type. 30 min channel support is down to 38.90, and should drop further if 38.96 doesn't hold. Link

Tab Gilles : 10/26/2005 1:07:33 PM

Energy Select Sector (XLE) Link Link

Murphy Oil Link

Jeff Bailey : 10/26/2005 1:06:39 PM

01:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 10/26/2005 1:04:48 PM

Foreign central banks took a solid 6.93B of the 20B in 2-year T-notes auctioned today. The notes sold for 4.365%, with 2.21 bids tendered for each accepted.

Linda Piazza : 10/26/2005 1:01:30 PM

I mentioned earlier that the VXO had leaped above its 10-minute 21-ema, but that the VIX had not. I also mentioned that, at the time, the VIX was dropping back to test that gap, and it's done so, currently exactly at the 10-minute 21-ema. As Jane mentioned earlier, the VIX isn't doing much of anything but teasing us. It's coiling.

Linda Piazza : 10/26/2005 12:59:43 PM

The current support for the advdec line looks strong on one of the charts I watch most closely. I'm still anticipating a bounce, although I expected it earlier. I just don't want to enter a bearish play with that support just beneath the advdec line, not without evidence that it's going to roll over beneath the support that had held it earlier today. I'm now thinking that it might not bounce as high, either, perhaps back up to 400-500, although I hope to see something nearer 650-700. Note: An attempted bounce began while I typed.

Jonathan Levinson : 10/26/2005 12:54:34 PM

Ten year note yields hold a 6.3 bp gain here at 4.571%, 13-week bill rates lower to a 3.5 bp loss at 3.802% as we await the results of the 20B Treasury note auction just after 1PM.

Linda Piazza : 10/26/2005 12:49:35 PM

VXO just leaped above the 10-minute 21-ema, although it may be dropping back to test the gap. The VIX hasn't similarly leaped above that average.

Linda Piazza : 10/26/2005 12:45:51 PM

Advdec line now testing the support that it broke through early this morning, precipitating our bearish entry this morning, since stopped out. I'm still waiting for that bounce back up to 700-750 and hope I don't lose the play opportunity, but it still looks possible. I think we actually got our confirmation at the conclusion of the 11:30 fifteen-minute candle, but it looked then as if it was likely that there would be another bounce up to test resistance, and the OEX has had a tendency lately to bounce excessively on any bounce of any magnitude on the advdec line. While the advdec line might be producing a lower high, which I wanted to see it produce, the OEX is often producing a higher one, which would have likely stopped us out of a bearish play.

Jonathan Levinson : 10/26/2005 12:44:02 PM

Nasdaq volume breadth is just ticking negative here, -1.07:1, with the TRINQ up to 1.14.

Jeff Bailey : 10/26/2005 12:43:01 PM

WellPoint Health (WLP) $73.11 -3.91% Link ... sharply lower today after the company reported quarterly net income (Q3) more than doubled to $640.7 million, or $1.02 per share, from $242.1 million, or $0.85 a share. Revenue rose 135% to $11.3 bilion from $4.8 billion.

On a comparable basis before merger with Anthem, revenue rose 5.6%.

Consensus was for EPS of $1.01 per share on revenue of $11.49 billion.

Jonathan Levinson : 10/26/2005 12:42:27 PM

QQQQ 30/60 min channel support line up at 38.95, with an attempted upturn in the short cycle indicators stalling: Link

Linda Piazza : 10/26/2005 12:41:20 PM

And there goes the advdec line without bouncing, down to test next support at -82 to +82. I hope I didn't get too cute with my bearish entry, but I wanted that confirmation, and an OEX bounce remains possible, into the right shoulder for a potential H&S.

Jeff Bailey : 10/26/2005 12:37:34 PM

Apex Silver (AMEX:SIL) $15.30 -1.54% Link ... backfills recent gap higher from 10/21-10/24. Bar chart Link

Jonathan Levinson : 10/26/2005 12:36:15 PM

LOL. Buy when they're selling.

Jeff Bailey : 10/26/2005 12:34:24 PM

Cabelas (CAB) $17.23 +0.17% Link ... Personal note here. Of late, I've been getting e-mail from CAB on frequent basis of "sales" and "triple-point awards" if I buy product from them using my Cabela's Club Card.

This, combined with GMTN announcement doesn't look good for the outdoor retailing segment.

The good news is that I've been adding aggressively to my duck/goose decoy collection.

Jeff Bailey : 10/26/2005 12:31:11 PM

Gander Mountain (GMTN) $5.39 -34.66% Link ... Outdoor lifesyle retailer getting crushed after saying its fiscal 2005 sales and profits will fall short of earlier estimates due to higher energy prices and persistently warm weather.

The company previously expected revenue of at least $850 million, flat comparable store sales and pretax income of at least $16 million for fiscal 2005.

The company expects that comparable store sales in the third quarter will decline nine to ten percent versus the third quarter of fiscal 2004.

Linda Piazza : 10/26/2005 12:30:55 PM

The advdec line and OEX are both taunting me. Both balance precariously on support.

Jonathan Levinson : 10/26/2005 12:25:03 PM

Volume breadth +1.33:1 on the NYSE, +1.27:1 on the Nasdaq.

Linda Piazza : 10/26/2005 12:23:31 PM

Advdec line bouncing, right from where I hoped it would, up, hopefully, to test resistance now at 750-760. It may not get quite that far, but I'm hoping that it will, so that there's a full retest of former support to prove to me that it's now holding as resistance. The OEX is bouncing, but not much yet. I'd like to see it at least above 554, and perhaps as high as 554.80, but I wouldn't like to see it move above the day's high so far.

Jonathan Levinson : 10/26/2005 12:17:28 PM

QQQQ bounces off that 39.01 test, but the bounce is heavy so far, only turning the wavelet oscillator (middle oscillator pane). 30/60 min channel support line up at 38.95-.96, which has been confluence in both directions in recent sessions: Link

Jeff Bailey : 10/26/2005 12:16:49 PM

Lucent (LU) $2.98 -3.85% ... sets up for test of its 200-day SMA ($2.97)

Jeff Bailey : 10/26/2005 12:16:04 PM

Bearish swing trade short alert ... for 1/2 position in Nortel Networks (NT) $3.41 +0.58% here, stop $3.52, target $3.10

Linda Piazza : 10/26/2005 12:13:58 PM

OEX Entry Point Alert
Prepare for a possible bearish entry. I want to see the advdec line bounce and fail at the day's former support, now at about 770 with the OEX hopefully also bouncing up to about 554.40 at the same time, but am not sure I'll get the needed confirmation. After the day's earlier failed play and the strangeness in the market, I really want to get that confirmation, so the potential play may not set up at all. That's my fear, and it may be being realized as the OEX looks to be having trouble holding onto the ten-minute 21-ema, but I'm still watching.

Jeff Bailey : 10/26/2005 12:13:04 PM

12:00 Internals found at this Link ... Yesterday's Internals found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 10/26/2005 12:06:57 PM

OEX attempting the expected bounce from the 10-minute 21-ema. Advdec line attempting to steady at the support level I was watching. Now we need to see a bounce in both and a failure at resistance, at least on the advdec line.

Linda Piazza : 10/26/2005 12:05:06 PM

Waiting and watching as the advdec line drops toward that 375 level I wanted to watch and the OEX tests the important 10-minute 21-ema. I expect bounce attempts from both tests and want to see how they perform. I'm worried that the bottom may just drop out without giving those signals, but in this climate, I want the retest and the confirmation.

Jonathan Levinson : 10/26/2005 12:04:55 PM

Session low for gold, -1.4 at 473.30. Crude oil is up 30 cents at 62.75, 22.5 cents off the high as QQQQ tests the prior low at 39.01.

Jeff Bailey : 10/26/2005 12:02:32 PM

12:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 10/26/2005 12:00:29 PM

SOX / SMH components sorted by % gain at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 10/26/2005 11:59:09 AM

QQQQ lost the 72 SMA and has turned the 30 min cycle down, ending its rise with no fanfare, no terminal surge or boost of volume, and no test of upper resistance despite breaking to a nominal new high. 30 min channel support is at 39, but with the upphase aborting so early in its run, there's a chance of lower lows if that 39 channel support breaks. Link

Linda Piazza : 10/26/2005 11:59:23 AM

For the first time today, the advec line has dropped beneath a line currently at 765. I'd like to see it drop to about 350 or so and then bounce back to retest that line. It's at 575 as I type.

Linda Piazza : 10/26/2005 11:57:15 AM

OEX dropping to test that 10-minute 21-ema that has proven so important lately. That average is at 553.49, and the OEX is currently at 553.92. I would expect at least a bounce attempt from this MA.

Linda Piazza : 10/26/2005 11:56:12 AM

I agree with Keene's assessment that this rally is topping, but I agreed a few points lower. Smile. Now I want proof, which probably means that I'll miss any downdraft, if one occurs. Right now, I'm seeing the advdec line not bouncing from that support in the same way it did earlier, but still testing it, and still preserving the possibility that it will bounce. If I hadn't been so gun-shy, I probably would have issued a signal for a bearish play about 10 minutes ago, and it will probably turn out to have been the ideal time to do so, since I didn't do it.

Linda Piazza : 10/26/2005 11:53:13 AM

Today's advdec line support being tested. Until the advdec line stops bouncing from that support and instead starts finding resistance at it, the trend has not changed, despite its finding resistance at a higher level. So far, each bounce from this support, although producing bearish value/RSI divergences on the advdec line, has brought the OEX to a new high, so you don't want to mess around with this one.

Jonathan Levinson : 10/26/2005 11:50:13 AM



FRANCE'S CAC 40 ENDS UP 0.4% AT 4,412

U.K'S FTSE 100 ENDS UP 0.9% AT 5,227

Jonathan Levinson : 10/26/2005 11:47:52 AM

Another coupon pass, the 2nd one in as many days, has just been announced. 902M will be made available on a permanent basis to the Fed's dealers tomorrow.

Linda Piazza : 10/26/2005 11:47:06 AM

After hitting resistance again and producing bearish value/RSI divergence while it did so, the advdec line is now dropping back to test the line that has been supporting it all day, now at about 725, with the advdec line at 865, QCharts value.

Jonathan Levinson : 10/26/2005 11:45:33 AM

Another probe below the rising wedge support here, but not doji-ing back up as the last attempt did. Currently testing 72 SMA support as I type: Link

Jeff Bailey : 10/26/2005 11:46:50 AM

Conoco Phillips (COP) $65.08 +4.22% Link ... triggers a double top buy signal here.

Company said quarterly earnings rose to $3.8 billion, or $2.68 a share on revenue of $49.66 billion.

Consensus was for $2.57 a share.

The company said it produced 1.79 million barrels of oil equivalent (BOE) per day, including 1.52 million BOE per day from the exploration and production segment and an estimated 270,000 BOE per day from its Lukoil Investment segment.

During the quarter, COP generated $6.1 billion in cash from operations, spent $3.6 billion in capital projects and investments and reduced debt by $516 million.

The company added that it expects its Lake Charles, La., refinery, which has been shut down since September, to return to normal operations by next week.

Jonathan Levinson : 10/26/2005 11:41:57 AM

Volume breadth +1.69:1 on the NYSE, +1.43:1 on the Nasdaq.

Linda Piazza : 10/26/2005 11:36:09 AM

The advdec line's resistance is so far holding, at the same line that held it this morning. Bearish value/RSI divergence was produced. The advdec line is coming down to test that support that's been holding it all day, however.

Jonathan Levinson : 10/26/2005 11:35:30 AM

I'm turning off the automatic linear regression channels to try to de-clutter the chart. Note a small bear wedge setting up here. Unless that upper rising resistance line breaks, we might be in for more frustration waiting for a terminal push to that 39.33 area: Link

Linda Piazza : 10/26/2005 11:29:14 AM

The OEX is headed right up into the resistance of the broadening formation, now at about 556.

Jonathan Levinson : 10/26/2005 11:28:56 AM

Session highs here, QQQQ reaching for upper wedge/30 min channel resistance at 39.32-.33. Link

Linda Piazza : 10/26/2005 11:28:39 AM

The advdec line bounced from that support that's been holding all day, now at about 530, with the advdec line now at 998, QCharts value. No evidence that the bounce is over yet, although I'm watching the 1150 zone for potential resistance.

Jeff Bailey : 10/26/2005 11:32:42 AM

Amerada Hess (AHC) $121.96 +0.53% Link ... off morning lows of $110.00. Company reported quarterly net income of $272 million, or $2.60 a share, up 53% from $178 million, or $1.74 a share for the same period last year (ended Sept. 30).

Revenue rose to $5.96 billion from $3.93 billion, with energy prices benefiting from the same hurricane impact that shut in so much of Gulf of Mexico production.

The figures were shy of consensus for $3.31 a share on revenue of $6.10 billion. recent hurricane activity in the Gulf of Mexico cut Q3 production by about 9,000 barrels a day, which negatively impacted earnings by $25 million, generating a one-time cost of $14 million.

The company's U.S. natural-gas output sold on average for $8.53 per thousand cubic feet, more than double the $4.13 it got in the third quarter of 2004, partly the result of extensive production shutdowns in the Gulf of Mexico.

Refining profits also showed a big increase, jumping to $125 million from $85 million.

Refining margins were up strongly for the entire U.S. oil industry after Hurricanes Katrina and Rita knocked out about a fourth of the nation's refining capacity.

Linda Piazza : 10/26/2005 11:25:38 AM

The advdec line is testing support that's been holding it up all day, with that support now at about 450 and the advdec line at 516, QCharts value, as I type.

Linda Piazza : 10/26/2005 11:23:42 AM

The RLX is gaining today, but it hasn't even retraced half of yesterday's decline yet. Not a particularly strong sign for the RLX. OEX bulls want to see it show more strength. The BIX has bounced, too, and more strongly, now testing the 50-sma, but, unlike the OEX, it has not bested yesterday's high.

Jonathan Levinson : 10/26/2005 11:22:56 AM

Session high for crude oil at 62.775, session low for GE, -.05 at 33.86.

Linda Piazza : 10/26/2005 11:21:18 AM

Chip-related stocks didn't perform all that well in China last night and some earnings reports weren't exactly cheering in their outlooks on demand and costs, but the SOX climbs within its triangle shape today. (It's a triangle if you ignore the long candle shadow from 10/19.) The top of that triangle is at about 446.45 and the bottom at about today's low of 439.85. Right now, the day's candle spans almost from the bottom to the top of that triangle. As always happens with such shapes, MACD has flattened, not giving clues as to the next direction.

Jonathan Levinson : 10/26/2005 11:20:39 AM

QQQQ's 72 SMA has risen to 39.10, and while QQQQ is breaking lower, it's still at a relatively higher wavelet low. Bulls need to keep price above 39.20 to avert a possible bearish divergent short cycle downphase, but it remains only potential- the bears have little to talk about so long as price holds above that 72 SMA support line: Link

Jeff Bailey : 10/26/2005 11:19:52 AM

11:00 Internals found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 10/26/2005 11:14:53 AM

OEX still butting up against both 15-minute and 30-minute Keltner resistance, with 60-minute up at 556.64. Bearish price/RSI divergences persist on some charts. The advdec line attempts a bounce from support, and we'll see where it goes and how it handles its own resistance.

Jeff Bailey : 10/26/2005 11:14:22 AM

SOX.X 445.60 +0.78% ... breaks above yesterday's highs. AMD $22.89 +2.37%, BRCM $44.00 +2.37%, MU $12.88 +1.73%, MRVL $46.87 +1.10% ... TER $14.34 -0.62%, TSM $7.84 -0.38%

Jonathan Levinson : 10/26/2005 11:11:42 AM

Ten year note yields hold a 6.3 bp gain here at 4.571%, 13-week bill rates down 1.7 bps at 3.82%.

Linda Piazza : 10/26/2005 11:11:08 AM

The advdec line so far clings to support, while coiling, and so maintains the ability to rise higher, perhaps back toward the 1060 level that's next resistance.

Jeff Bailey : 10/26/2005 11:03:24 AM

11:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 10/26/2005 11:03:17 AM

This last surge broke the high by a penny, never coming close to upper 30 min channel resistance or the wedge top. The higher lows suggest that the little double top has a decent chance of breaking, and the lack of drama on these pushes to the high makes me suspicious of the pullback. Link

Linda Piazza : 10/26/2005 11:02:23 AM

The advdec line has not done what I would want it to do to signal to me that the bounce is concluded. It may be close to being concluded, but I haven't gotten that confirmed signal yet. The OEX is approaching strong Keltner resistance in the form of the 30-minute channel line now at 555.26 on 30-minute closes. The OEX sometimes does violate this channel to the upside--it did in July for a period, for example--but it more usually holds as resistance, as it did on the just completed 30-minute period. The top of the broadening formation is up near 556. If this were any other time, I might be suggesting that a trial balloon bearish play might be in order, but I've had this morning's signal not play out as expected, and so I want confirmation this time.

Jonathan Levinson : 10/26/2005 11:00:38 AM

Session high for crude oil at 62.475, just entering positive territory.

Jonathan Levinson : 10/26/2005 10:54:48 AM

Session high for QQQQ at 39.24. 30 min channel resistance is up to the rising wedge resistance line at 39.32: Link

Linda Piazza : 10/26/2005 10:54:39 AM

Thanks, guys, for the encouragement.

Tab Gilles : 10/26/2005 10:53:26 AM

Citrix Systems (CTXS) Hitting that $27 resistance. Link Link

Linda Piazza : 10/26/2005 10:52:11 AM

Advdec line support holding, so far.

Jonathan Levinson : 10/26/2005 10:50:56 AM

Volume breadth +1.47:1 on the NYSE, +1.18:1 on the Nasdaq, positive but not particularly strong.

Tab Gilles : 10/26/2005 10:50:19 AM

Materials Select Sector (XLB) Breaking over 50-ma. Link Link

Jeff Bailey : 10/26/2005 10:50:13 AM

Low Sulfer Distillate (diesel) fell by 202,000 barrels, a 15.2% decline, to 1.12 million barrels.

Linda Piazza : 10/26/2005 10:48:17 AM

What I need to see now in order to issue a new signal is for the advdec line to hit that support, bounce up to retest the resistance and signal bearish value/RSI divergence while it does so. I suspect we may not get that signal and I also suspect that we were stopped out at an awful loss, but just before the turnaround. However, if that support holds, there's the chance the the advdec line will just climb into the next resistance and surmount that, bringing the OEX even higher, and so that's why some confirmation is needed. And then I would need to screw up my courage again. While I can deal with my own losses, I hate the thought of making readers lose, especially when I so looked forward to sharing this methodology that's been working so well for me.

Jeff Bailey : 10/26/2005 10:47:58 AM

Kerosene-type Jet Fuel stocks were up 691,000 barrels to 36.76 million barrels.

Tab Gilles : 10/26/2005 10:43:06 AM

Murphy Oil (MUR) Looking to add to position on 10/20-ema crossover as indicated on 10/25 12:41 AM post. Link Link Link Link

Jeff Bailey : 10/26/2005 10:42:55 AM

Valero (VLO) $103.00 +1.92% ... lurches higher.

Jonathan Levinson : 10/26/2005 10:42:31 AM

QQQQ drops down to test the 72 SMA at 39.06 here, below which the 30 min channel upphase will stall: Link

Jeff Bailey : 10/26/2005 10:42:14 AM

EIA Weekly Inventory of Crude Oil, Gasoline, Distillates Table found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 10/26/2005 10:42:13 AM

The advdec line support currently being tested, extending down to -76, looks relatively strong, so it looks as if it's going to take a strong push to get through it, with other support waiting below. Otherwise, it looks as if it might hold as support. The advdec line is at 392, QCharts value, as I type. On the other side of the coin, the resistance at about 1000 looks relatively strong and the advdec line signaled that the upside move was overdone while it was being tested.

Jonathan Levinson : 10/26/2005 10:41:52 AM

Crude oil recovers to a 27.5 cent loss at 62.175 here, off a low of 61.45. The drop broke the day low, then the bounce spiked above the day high.

Linda Piazza : 10/26/2005 10:37:22 AM

Bearish price/RSI divergence on the OEX on that latest swing high, up through the 60-minute chart. It could still be erased, but it's there now.

Jeff Bailey : 10/26/2005 10:37:12 AM

EIA Weekly Inputs, Operable Capacity, Capacity Utilization Table found at this Link ... 80.73% of the nation's refineries online.

Jonathan Levinson : 10/26/2005 10:36:28 AM

Looks like the bulls aren't going to get it on this run, with QQQQ losing R1 and back to testing 39.10 confluence from above. Link

Linda Piazza : 10/26/2005 10:36:00 AM

Nearest advdec line support being tested soon.

Tab Gilles : 10/26/2005 10:45:31 AM

Sorry I couldn't post last night, ISP problems. However, as per 10/25 12:40 AM post; I was waiting for confirmation on the $NASI weekly and daily charts and after last nights close it still read BUY. As my disciplined strategy works it is signaling to switch into a long position on the $NDX [or Profund].

Weekly $NASI/$NDX/$NAHL Link

Daily $NASI/$NDX/$NAHL Watch 1600 level, will the $NASI reverse again? Link Link

Selling USPIX position on today's close that I entered back on 10/6 ($17.36), entering 1/2 position on UOPIX and watching 1600 level, adding on break over 1600. Link

$VXN weekly Link

Linda Piazza : 10/26/2005 10:34:30 AM

Advdec line pausing at resistance, but now that former resistance that I watched earlier might be support. No clear signal right now, depending on whether that support holds or collapses, or maybe I'm just gun-shy now.

Jonathan Levinson : 10/26/2005 10:34:01 AM

The jam to which Mark refers would target 39.30 QQQQ, which should be a good short entry with a stop 5-10 cents above.

Linda Piazza : 10/26/2005 10:32:18 AM

Swing Trade Signals
Today's trade pointed out one of the shortcomings I've been warning about in the methodology that I use. Although we've now had two losses in a row, that's not usual with my methodology, but the losses are sometimes bigger than desired when there is a loss. The unrealized losses are often large while a play is underway. This is a characteristic of the methodology that I noted several times last week. Before the last two plays, I had a string of 18 profitable plays documented, and I'd had only one other instance of two unprofitable plays in a row. This week's earlier loss was mostly due to my newness to posting trades because I had tried to get an exit posted for the rest of the position, but fumbled all the different steps to getting it uploaded, and the OEX had bounced too much. Today was just one of those days, with the advdec line setting up exactly as it has for other bearish plays, rising to retest broken support as it's done so many times, but this time popping back through it.

You need to know about some of these shortcomings. I need to figure out if I'm pushing entries in order to get them posted for you, but I don't think so. I think this was just one of those things that happens.

Jonathan Levinson : 10/26/2005 10:31:58 AM





Jonathan Levinson : 10/26/2005 10:30:55 AM

Session low for crude oil -1 at 61.45.

Jonathan Levinson : 10/26/2005 10:30:11 AM

From the EIA:

U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) increased by 4.4 million barrels from the previous week. At 316.4 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories remain above the upper end of the average range for this time of year. Total motor gasoline inventories inched up by 0.2 million barrels last week, putting them above the lower end of the average range. Distillate fuel inventories fell by 1.6 million barrels last week, and are just above the lower end of the average range for this time of year. Inventories fell for both low-sulfur (diesel fuel) distillate fuel and high-sulfur (heating oil) distillate fuel. Total commercial petroleum inventories decreased by 0.3 million barrels last week, but remain in the upper half of the average range for this time of year.

Jonathan Levinson : 10/26/2005 10:19:45 AM

QQQQ update at this Link with price making a nominal new high at 39.20, with no bearish divergences on the short cycle indicators. I've compressed a lot of data points into this chart to show the move in relation to the wedge whose support was tested yesterday.

Linda Piazza : 10/26/2005 10:19:22 AM

The OEX is now jammed against 15-minute Keltner resistance, with that at 554.25 on 15-minute closes, and with the OEX at 554.34 as I type. The 30-minute channel's resistance is at 555.03, with this channel containing almost all OEX movements. Those in bullish plays need to protect profits from the current level up through 555.03, although the broadening formation suggests that the OEX could bounce as high as 556 before hitting its resistance. The advdec line has now bounced high enough that a further bounce up to +2100-2250 is possible, carrying the OEX higher with it, but I'm just not sure that will happen, at least not before a pullback.

Jeff Bailey : 10/26/2005 10:18:37 AM

10:00 Internals found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 10/26/2005 10:18:19 AM

New highs for GOOG, +4.77 at 451.68.

Jonathan Levinson : 10/26/2005 10:17:10 AM

Volume breadth is up to +1.60 on the NYSE, +1.65:1 on the Nasdaq.

Jonathan Levinson : 10/26/2005 10:14:19 AM

Don't forget the EIA petrol report in 17 minutes. Crude oil trades -.45 here at 62, natgas -.175 at 14.285.

Linda Piazza : 10/26/2005 10:13:53 AM

OEX Trade Exit Point Alert
Our stop was hit. Entry at 551.57. Exit at 554.30. That one was painful. Sorry.

Linda Piazza : 10/26/2005 10:12:55 AM

OEX Trade Exit Point Alert
Conservative traders, although none were supposed to be in this risky play, exit now and take your lumps. The advdec line is moving above the level I'd like to see it move, not holding resistance particularly well. I think I'm going to keep the official play open, however, with the original stop as the advdec line approaches another level of resistance. The OEX may get to our stop before the advdec line gets to its next resistance, though, so keep that in mind while making decisions.

Jeff Bailey : 10/26/2005 10:09:55 AM

10:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 10/26/2005 10:08:56 AM

QQQQ's short cycle downphase ended early, well before reaching oversold, a confirmation of the strength in the broader 30 min cycle within which it oscillates. The top of that 30 min channel is up to 39.20 and still rising. Link

Linda Piazza : 10/26/2005 10:08:54 AM

OEX's 15-minute Keltner chart: As long as the OEX is finding support on a Keltner line currently at 551.92, it retains an upside target of 554.09, and it may be trying for that as I type.

Linda Piazza : 10/26/2005 10:05:28 AM

It's a bit iffy right now. The advdec line's resistance tentatively held on some charts, on some time intervals, and looks as if it might have breached resistance a little on others. The OEX's daily 21-ema at 553.46 has tentatively held as resistance. We'd like to see a bigger advdec line pullback soon.

Jonathan Levinson : 10/26/2005 10:04:00 AM

Added to the 2.5B net add via overnight repo is the 1B coupon pass announced yesterday and deliverable today, for a net gain of 3.5B today from the Fed.

Jeff Bailey : 10/26/2005 10:02:07 AM

Sell Program Premium ... DIA $103.72, SPX 1197.20, QQQQ $39.06

Jonathan Levinson : 10/26/2005 10:01:39 AM

If the QQQQ bulls can break the 39.20 area, then they'll be in a position to reverse the 60 min cycle downphase that's keeping a lid on the price: Link

Jeff Bailey : 10/26/2005 9:58:49 AM

Lucent (LU) $3.06 -1.60% ... reported quarterly profit of $374 million, or $0.08 per share, down from $1.21 billion, or $0.23 per share, a year ago. The latest quarter included a gain of about $107 million, or $0.02 per share, mainly from income tax items, compared with a gain of $1 billion, or about $0.19 per share, a year earlier.

Consensus was for $0.05 per share.

Jonathan Levinson : 10/26/2005 9:55:39 AM

The Fed announces an overnight repo of 4.25B, replacing 1.75B expiring for a net 2.5B add.

Linda Piazza : 10/26/2005 9:54:08 AM

OEX Trade Exit Point Alert
I'm watching the advdec line closely as it tests resistance. If the resistance doesn't hold, I'll want to exit the bearish play quickly, so be prepared for a possible exit. I don't want to wait for the official stop of the advdec line is acting differently than I want. So far, it's okay and our official stop might hold anyway, but be ready.

Jeff Bailey : 10/26/2005 9:50:09 AM

SOX.X 441.11 -0.23% ...

Jonathan Levinson : 10/26/2005 9:47:26 AM

Volume breadth has strengthened to -1.14:1 on the NYSE, +1.28:1 on the Nasdaq.

Jeff Bailey : 10/26/2005 9:47:18 AM

Swing trade short stopped alert .... for Xilinx (XLNX) $23.60

Linda Piazza : 10/26/2005 9:46:55 AM

The advdec line is bouncing during the first reversal of the day, as I thought it might do, and the OEX is rising with it, now above our entry and looking scary. The advdec line isn't looking scary yet, as it's only rising up to test resistance. As long as that resistance holds, the signal should still be good. I don't base my own exits on the OEX price, but rather on the action of the advdec line, which is the reason that I'm not sure they'll translate well into the MM, as the OEX could pop up higher than our stop while the advdec line is still testing resistance, but then both the advdec line and the OEX could roll over again.

Jeff Bailey : 10/26/2005 9:46:45 AM

Flextronics (FLEX) $9.38 -22.47% ... atop this morning's most active list after the contract electronics manufacturer reported a net loss for its second fiscal quarter ended September 30 of $2.4 million, or $0.00 cents per share, compared with a year-ago net profit of $92.6 million, or $0.16 cents per share.

Revenue declined to $3.88 billion from $4.14 billion, largely due to the divestiture of its semiconductor and network services divisions and the sale by two large customers of their cell phone business to Asian companies, which took over manufacturing themselves.

Excluding items, Flextronics had a per-share profit of $0.17, compared with the average Wall Street estimate for a profit of $0.19.

Jonathan Levinson : 10/26/2005 9:45:34 AM

The 30 min channel is still rising, and upper resistance is just below R1 at 39.19 QQQQ: Link

Linda Piazza : 10/26/2005 9:44:16 AM

OEX Trade Signals
OEX Keltner picture: The OEX has first support at 551.27 on 15-minute closes, with the OEX currently at 551.34 as this 15-minute period draws to a close. Next support at 550.68, then at the more important mid-channel area at 549.61-549.70, and we'll be looking at taking all or first profit near that level, if reached.

Jeff Bailey : 10/26/2005 9:41:48 AM

Bullish swing trade stopped alert ... for Lucent (LU) $3.05 -1.92%

Linda Piazza : 10/26/2005 9:41:18 AM

I'm thinking that there could be another advdec line bounce during the first reversal, up to retest the -100 zone, with the advdec line now at -989. The first reversal of the day should be beginning about now.

Linda Piazza : 10/26/2005 9:40:02 AM

OEX bouncing now from the 10-minute 21-ema, an average that tends to be important for the OEX. It's at 551.19, important on 10-minute closes.

Linda Piazza : 10/26/2005 9:38:51 AM

Advdec line still dropping. The OEX will see strong support in the 549.50-550 zone, if that's touched.

Jeff Bailey : 10/26/2005 9:38:23 AM

Bearish swing trade lower stop alert ... for the 1/2 position in Xilinx (XLNX) $23.31 -0.93% ... to $23.05.

Linda Piazza : 10/26/2005 9:37:42 AM

OEX Entry Point Alert
Entry was at OEX 551.57.

Jonathan Levinson : 10/26/2005 9:37:37 AM

Weekly chart of the ten year note yield, printing above descending trendline resistance on its move to 4.6% earlier this morning: Link

Linda Piazza : 10/26/2005 9:36:26 AM

OEX Entry Point Alert
For aggressive traders only, as there's no logical stop except above yesterday's high, enter a bearish position. Stop at 554.30.

Jonathan Levinson : 10/26/2005 9:35:27 AM

QQQQ's 30 min cycle is trying to turn up against an ongoing 60 min cycle downphase. This is a recipe for chop, but the short cycle upphase appears to have peaked in the premarket and is giving bears the edge at the open. Link

Linda Piazza : 10/26/2005 9:35:07 AM

OEX Entry Point Alert
Thinking about a bearish entry here. The advdec line is dropping from S/R, with plenty of room to drop.

Jonathan Levinson : 10/26/2005 9:34:13 AM

Volume breadth is -1.6:1 on the NYSE, -1.74:1 on the Nasdaq at the open.

Linda Piazza : 10/26/2005 9:32:02 AM

The OEX drops but the advdec line opens at S/R and hasn't moved enough either direction to give a clear view of the likely action. No signals yet, but the evidence is slightly weighted toward weakness rather than strength.

Jeff Bailey : 10/26/2005 9:22:53 AM

Boeing (BA) $66.97 Link ... lower at $65.10 in pre-market trade after the company reported a quarterly profit of $1.01 billion, or $1.26 per share (includes a one-time gain of $0.62 per share), up from $456 million, or $0.56 per share in the year ago quarter. Revenues fell 4% to $12.6 billion from $13.2 billion, reflecting the impact of the International Assoc. of Machinists (IAM) strike.

Looking forward, Boeing raised its estimates for earnings to a range of $2.95 to $3.05 per share for 2005, up $0.20 per share, and between $3.10 and $3.30 per share in 2006, up $0.10 cents per share. It cited strong performance in its core businesses this year followed by higher commercial airplanes deliveries, revenues and earnings next year, offsetting the lower revenue growth in defense.

Jeff Bailey : 10/26/2005 9:16:10 AM

Energy Select Spdr (AMEX:XLE) $48.65 ... 1.5 million shares cross the wire at $48.65.

Jeff Bailey : 10/26/2005 9:09:40 AM

Program Trading Levels for Wednesday ... HL Camp & Company has their computers set for program buying at $+4.36 and set for program selling at $+1.68.

Linda Piazza : 10/26/2005 8:44:24 AM

Yesterday was a wild day on the OEX, with the OEX dropping along with other indices and the advdec line, but then seeing a late-day buying spurt that sent it higher, producing a doji or near-doji for the day. I was a bit suspicious of that late-day spurt, but it did come after the advdec line had been trailing strong support and showing bullish divergences. Despite the late-day bounce or, rather, because of it, the day's candle was a potentially bearish one produced beneath the resistance of the daily 21-ema. When consolidating, the OEX often follows such doji days with either another doji or an actual decline, so that should be the scenario we keep on our radar screens, testing early action against that scenario.

The question, of course, is whether the OEX is through consolidating. Back on May 3, the OEX had been consolidating after touching April's low, and it produced a doji at the 200-sma. The next day, it climbed instead of producing either a doji or a decline. That was the last time I found such a reaction, but it does at least point out the possibility that it could happen again. Remember, too, that a doji can mean an early rise and then a decline and bounce, so an early rise isn't precluded even if the OEX is going to produce another doji day.

Futures don't indicate a bounce this morning, but let's look at the possibility anyway. On a bounce, it's tempting to say that a move above yesterday's high would likely get something going to the upside and see follow through. That's all fine and good except that the OEX is consolidating in a broadening formation at the bottom of its decline, this broadening formation within a larger one that's been in place for months, and that newest broadening formation's resistance is rising, of course. A break over yesterday's 554.24 high is soon going to slam into the resistance at the top of that broadening formation, now at about 556.

I'm typing this after the close on Tuesday, and I've been staring at various OEX charts for more than an hour, trying to find the definitive MA, trendline or other formation that will tell you whether the OEX is breaking out, but the truth is that as long as the OEX is within that broadening formation, it's likely to be difficult to trade and difficult to interpret. For now, I'm left with the simplistic conclusion that until the OEX breaks out, it hasn't broken out and we can expect former resistance (this time in the form of a broadening or rising top trendline) to hold as resistance. If there should be a bounce, watch levels from yesterday's close up to 556 for a potential rollover through that consolidation pattern again. On a Keltner basis, the OEX's next resistance is at 554.61 on a 30-minute close, and that's resistance that often holds. If there's an early bounce, I would first watch for the possibility of a rollover from that resistance, if it's touched.

Right now, the often reliable 240-minute chart shows the OEX trapped between support at 549.90 on a 240-minute close and resistance at 553.92 on a 240-minute close, so if the OEX should roll over instead this morning, watch again for potential support in the 549-550 zone. If the OEX should close a 15-minute period below the Keltner mid-channel support currently at 549.63, then a drop to 547.57 might be possible, with bears needing to be protective of profits in the 545.20-547.57 range.

With futures down this morning and with a political storm perhaps brewing and with forex market rumors of a possible hedge fund failure, possibly in Europe, I'm going to be watching at the open to see if the OEX looks as if it's rolling down. I'll let you know what I see.

Jonathan Levinson : 10/26/2005 8:30:53 AM

TNX is still climbing, now up 8.9 bps at 4.597% after peeking above 4.6%, currently holding a 1.93% gain on the day.

Linda Piazza : 10/26/2005 8:29:37 AM

I will be on the MM after all today, although I'd expected to be out.

Jonathan Levinson : 10/26/2005 8:27:30 AM

Session lows across the board for equities, QQQQ down 8 cents to 38.93 and ES down 3 at 1196.

Jonathan Levinson : 10/26/2005 8:26:18 AM

Ten year note yields open on a big 7.3 bp jump to 4.581%, steepening against the IRX, up .8 bps at 3.845%. Compressed year-to-date daily chart at this Link with today's print breaking above rising channel resistance.

Jonathan Levinson : 10/26/2005 8:12:01 AM

Ten year notes have dropped to a new low at 108 3/16, equities flipping red here with NQ unchanged at 1590, ES -.25 at 1198.5 and QQQQ down a cent at 39.00.

Jonathan Levinson : 10/26/2005 8:09:33 AM

The news media are leading with the CIA leak case this morning. New York Times article from page A01 at this Link , MSNBC.com at this Link .

Jonathan Levinson : 10/26/2005 8:05:03 AM

Dec. gold held its gains yesterday, and this morning sits with a 20 cent loss at 474.50. The overnight high was 476, at key resistance discussed yesterday. On the daily chart, that level, in addition to being a 150% retracement off the Feb. trough- March peak, is also a possible right shoulder of a spiky head and shoulders formation above the 462 area. That confluence/fib/pattern resistance area is a key goal for bulls here. Yesterday's bounce was enough to stop the daily cycle downphase midway through its run, but it will take a close above that level to begin generating the first daily cycle bullish crosses. Daily chart at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 10/26/2005 7:27:39 AM

Equities are green, just off their overnight highs with ES trading 1202.5, NQ 1594.5, YM 10421 and QQQQ +.09 at 39.10. Gold is down 30 cents at 474.40, silver +.041 at 7.87, ten year notes are down 1/4 at 108 21/64, crude oil is down .375 at 62.075 and natgas is down a nickel at 14.41.

We await the 10:30 release of the weekly EIA petroleum report.

Linda Piazza : 10/26/2005 7:03:43 AM

Just a note: Some chip-related stocks performed poorly last night in Japan, although Advantest was higher ahead of its earnings report. Those earnings, released after the close, I believe, showed a 48% drop in first half net group profit. I'm not certain that chip-related weakness will carry through to our markets and Intel supplier Tokyo Electron actually raised its profit forecast for the year, but some of the other reporting companies in Japan had dour things to say about demand.

Linda Piazza : 10/26/2005 6:45:50 AM

Good morning. The Nikkei gained, but other Asian markets were mixed. European markets gain this morning, and our futures are mildly positive as of this writing. As of 6:40 EST, gold was down $0.40 to $474.30, and crude, down $0.48, to $61.96 . More details about Asian and European markets follows in succeeding paragraphs.

Wednesday, the Nikkei gained 114.40 points or 0.86%, to close at 13,395.02. It saw follow through to Tuesday's gains despite a narrowing of its trade surplus by 21% from the year-ago level. Domestic demand rose, but the high costs of the imports needed to satisfy that demand shrank the surplus. Most economists had expected the surplus to narrow more than it did, however, and exports rose more than expected, by 8.8% instead of the expected 5.8%. Exports to China rose 14.4% in September, while those to the U.S. rose 5.8%. In a separate release, the September Corporate Services Price Index rose 0.3 points month over month after having dropped in August. The year-over-year rate declined, but by a smaller amount than in August. Unlike the Domestic Corporate Goods Price Index, the Corporate Services Price Index has not completed its bottoming process, some speculate.

Gainers included resource-related stocks. News- or earnings-related developments sent some stocks higher. Tokyo Electron raised its profit forecast for the year. Resona announced first-half profit that beat forecasts. Advantest was due to report earnings later in the day. All three gained in early trading.

NEC and Seiko Epson were also to announce earnings. NEC reported a first-half loss and slacking demand for mobile-phone chips. The company forecast a big net loss for the fiscal year. The company's head will step down. Elpida Memory, termed Japan's biggest memory-chip manufacturer, revealed earnings that disappointed. The company said that declining prices for chips and higher research costs would lead to annual profits lower than previously anticipated. Hynix Semiconductor fell ahead of its global share sale. Canon and Fuji Photo Film Co. also dropped in early trading. Sharp was to end the day lower after reporting falling first-half net profit.

In other company news, Sony Corp. announced a cancellation of the tracking stocks for Sony Communications Network Corp. This is a step toward an IPO for the wholly owned company. Toyota Motor Corp. gained. A newspaper had speculated that the company plans to increase production in 2006 and might soon pass up GM's output. Matsui Securities was targeted for disciplinary action by Japan's Securities and Exchange Surveillance Commission. The commission said the online brokerage had misled clients.

Other Asian markets were mixed. The Taiwan Weighted lost 0.36%, and South Korea's Kospi dropped 0.19%. Singapore's Straits Times rose 0.10%, and Hong Kong's Hang Seng gained 0.23%. China's Shanghai Composite dropped 2.21%. China's largest commercial bank will appoint three independent board members, an unnamed source apparently revealed to Reuters. China's foreign exchange chief reportedly said that China will take further and gradual steps with currency reform, with nothing really new in that statement.

European markets gain, boosted by encouraging results from DaimlerChrysler. Those results were unveiled Tuesday, with DaimlerChrysler noting increasing demand for some of its products, including a new Mercedes M-Class SUV. Net income had declined but by less than had been expected. CSFB still advised buying the company's shares only after a pullback. The firm does not expect October sales figures to be stellar when released November 1. Still, DaimlerChrysler and some other automakers rose.

Miners rose, some due to their own encouraging earnings reports and some due to the rise in commodity prices overnight. Early decliners included Bayer and Prudential plc. Bayer will sell rights to an anti-thrombosis drug candidate to a Johnson & Johnson division. Prudential declined after unveiling its strategy review.

Italy's October Business Confidence inched up to 89.5 from its previous 89.3. This number proved disappointing, but it was the fourth straight gain, and a gain into the year's high. In the U.K., the October CBI Industrial Trends Survey met expectations, rising to -25 from its previous -27. The component measuring expectations dropped, and export orders fell. For the quarter, the number disappointed. The Business optimism balance, number employed and output expectations declined.

As of 6:36 EST, the FTSE 100 was higher by 52.60 points or 1.02%, at 5,234.70. The CAC 40 was higher by 35.58 points or 0.81%, at 4,432.57. The DAX was higher by 40.36 points or 0.83%, at 4,913.33.

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