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OI Technical Staff : 11/7/2005 9:59:59 PM

The Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

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Jeff Bailey : 11/7/2005 4:48:16 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles found at this Link

Today's Activity ... No profiled trades were activated today.

Jeff Bailey : 11/7/2005 4:22:23 PM

Bullish swing trade cancel order alert ... for the 1/2 bullish position in Chicago Board of Trade (BOT) $115.24 +1.08% ... for $118.00 entry at this time.

Jeff Bailey : 11/7/2005 4:20:09 PM

Closing U.S. Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 11/7/2005 4:16:07 PM

Closing Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 11/7/2005 4:06:21 PM

Sell Program Premium ... DIA $105.76, SPY $122.33

Linda Piazza : 11/7/2005 4:05:07 PM

OEX Trade Recap
Entered a bearish OEX play at OEX 562.44. Took partial profit at 561.66 for a 0.78 move in favor of the position. Stopped on the rest at 562.44.

Update for those following my methodology: It was iffy for a while, and at one point, I told traders that I was keeping my partial position unless stopped by the original 564.07 stop but that it was probably better if they exited sooner, but the 15-minute resistance did hold on the advdec line chart and that stop was never hit. Multiple opportunities for profit or break-even exits were offered, with me pointing those out ad nauseam to those who think I do so too often. I always want you to know when I think there's going to be a move against the position and where it's likely to bring the OEX, however, so you can make your own decisions. Hopefully, some benefited from my suggestions that a bounce was likely imminent and if a trader did not want to weather that bounce, then that trader should exit.

A last minute push kept the OEX from producing a doji today and also kept the pattern on the daily chart from looking a lot like a bearish deliberation or advance block candlestick patterns.

Jeff Bailey : 11/7/2005 3:54:34 PM

Dow Jones Home Construction ($DJUSHB) alert $921.83 +2.08% Link ... threatening a bullish close ABOVE both its 200-day and 50-day SMAs. Bar chart Link

Linda Piazza : 11/7/2005 3:52:02 PM

The OEX is now so close to its 200-sma at 564.67 that I wouldn't be surprised to see it tested, either this afternoon or tomorrow morning. Keep that possibility, but not yet a probability, in mind as you make end-of-day decisions today.

Linda Piazza : 11/7/2005 3:49:40 PM

Advdec line is now, finally, bouncing from the same support that bounced it twice earlier today, with that support at about 330 now and with the advdec line now at 763. There's certainly nothing too inspiring as yet about the action, with an obvious and concerted effort to hold the OEX near its high, but so far failing in its efforts to move it above the former rising trendline off the April low. I absolutely would not be surprised to see almost anything happen in the last few minutes, including another effort to drive the OEX above that trendline, now at about 564 or an end-of-day drop to produce that doji I thought was one scenario for today.

Jonathan Levinson : 11/7/2005 3:46:27 PM

Volume breadth is back up to 1.3:1 on the NYSE, 1.4:1 on the Nasdaq.

Jane Fox : 11/7/2005 3:45:45 PM

Buyers are back TICKS +800

Jonathan Levinson : 11/7/2005 3:39:48 PM

QQQQ's 30 and 60 min cycles are both stalled at lower oscillator highs compated with the relatively higher price highs. If the bulls lose 40.00 at the close, it should be enough to leave QQQQ on the cusp of bearish divergent downphases. So far, most signals have been aborting early or reversing in this sideways-up range for the past 3 sessions- but it would remain a dangerous setup from the bull side if the Qs go out at or near the 39.95 low. Link

Linda Piazza : 11/7/2005 3:38:58 PM

Although the advdec line did bounce from that support it's bounced from twice today, the bounce has been different so far. By the third three-minute bar after testing that line, it was well on its way into a stronger bounce the previous two times. This time, it's just sitting there, but perhaps there's just a pause before the MOC orders?

Jeff Bailey : 11/7/2005 3:40:09 PM

Alliance Gaming (AGI) $12.36 +11.15% Link ... highs of the session and at Katrina levels.

Strong move today and recaptures its flat 200-day SMA. Bar chart Link

Jane Fox : 11/7/2005 3:36:18 PM

That red trendline on the VIX and SPX charts is coming back into play now. Link

Linda Piazza : 11/7/2005 3:30:52 PM

Advdec line now testing that same support that bounced it twice earlier. There's no bounce yet, but bears have an opportunity to decide if they want to risk a bounce into the close from this advdec line support.

Linda Piazza : 11/7/2005 3:29:59 PM

As reminder, the OEX's daily 100/130-ema's are at 561.22 and 561.76, with the OEX currently at 562.38.

Jonathan Levinson : 11/7/2005 3:27:26 PM

Volume breadth +1.12:1 on the NYSE, +1.18:1 on the Nasdaq.

Jonathan Levinson : 11/7/2005 3:26:10 PM

QQQQ is working on pivot support after breaking back below the 72 SMA, the short cycles decisively turned down. But the indices remain green, if fractionally so, and there was no clear buying climax to mark a top. If the bulls don't return to the high, there will be yet another of these slow-motion doji days within the ongoing daily cycle upphase. Link

Linda Piazza : 11/7/2005 3:24:34 PM

Advdec line dropping to that same support that has bounced it twice today, with that support at 300-390 currently and with the advdec line now at 547, QCharts value.

Jeff Bailey : 11/7/2005 3:21:46 PM

TheStreet.com (TSCM) $4.77 +10.93% Link ... "There's always a bull market somewhere!" ... threatens to close at a 52-week high!

Linda Piazza : 11/7/2005 3:16:59 PM

OEX Trade Signals
I tried to get a new bearish OEX entry posted for those who might have taken the stop earlier, but the OEX and advdec line dropped too quickly, and the OEX now tests potentially strong support at about 562.70 (descending trendline off the 9/09 high). However, for those of you who elected to keep the 564.07 stop for the rest of your position after taking partial profit this morning, the advdec line held to 15-minute resistance, but not 10-minute. It's back below both now, but the OEX is likely to attempt a bounce from that support, so be careful.

Jeff Bailey : 11/7/2005 3:13:19 PM

03:00 Internals found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 11/7/2005 3:11:06 PM

So far, and very tentatively, the rising trendline off the April low is again holding as resistance today.

Jonathan Levinson : 11/7/2005 3:10:46 PM

It's either me, or the tape is moving very slowly. Volume is certainly the lightest in many sessions, now up to 55.6M QQQQ shares, on track to fall well short of Friday's volume.

Jeff Bailey : 11/7/2005 3:02:54 PM

03:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 11/7/2005 3:00:50 PM

Headlines:

U.S. SEPT. CONSUMER CREDIT FLAT VS. $5.3BLN EXPECTED

U.S. SEPT. REVOLVING CREDIT UP 4.7%

U.S. SEPT. NONREVOLVING CREDIT FALLS 2.8%

Jonathan Levinson : 11/7/2005 2:54:45 PM

QQQQ engulfed the previous 45 minutes' range in a single red candle, now back below 40.20. The move came nowhere close to overbought on the short cycle indicators or the 30 min channel top, and there are no signals preceding these sudden moves. Price is weak after looking ripe for a breakout, but confirmation will come on a break back below the 72 SMA and the pivot at 40.11: Link

Linda Piazza : 11/7/2005 2:50:51 PM

Tentative 60-minute price/RSI divergence on the OEX's chart as it tests that rising trendline off April's low. The last swing high to test that rising trendline, on Thursday, did not produce bearish divergence when compared to the previous swing high. You never know what will happen, especially with the close of the bond market approaching, but I just can't be too bullish just yet as that trendline is tested. Unfortunately, too, the signs I've been getting lately have been bearish ones, as occurred today after the open. The advdec line has not acted in a bullish manner today, not setting up a bullish play, other than a possible scalping one the last time it hit the support that had bounced it earlier. Since it was below what appeared to be a key S/R zone, though, that wasn't a strong-enough setup. I have gotten a few tentative bullish setups over the last week, but all as this key resistance was being tested.

Jonathan Levinson : 11/7/2005 2:47:31 PM

Awaiting Consumer Credit at 3PM, est. 5.8B.

Linda Piazza : 11/7/2005 2:46:05 PM

New high of the day for the OEX, as it tests that rising trendline off April's low.

Linda Piazza : 11/7/2005 2:40:54 PM

If there were bearish divergence on the advdec line's 15-minute chart right now, I'd be suggesting a new bearish entry. There isn't, however.

Jeff Bailey : 11/7/2005 2:40:51 PM

Beetle's Balanced Benchmark alert! ... Dow Diamonds (DIA) $105.76 +0.54% ... joins the QQQ and IJH for asset classes (other than the dollar) to get back green since 09/30/05 rebalancing.

Jonathan Levinson : 11/7/2005 2:39:08 PM

Stepping away for a few minutes.

Linda Piazza : 11/7/2005 2:37:24 PM

Why am I not going long yet? First of all, the advdec line may be proving problematic for a bearish play, but it's far from indicating that a bullish one is a good idea according to my methodology. Here's the other reason, with the rising trendline being the rising trendline off the April low, and with this looking too much as yet like a possible kiss goodbye: Link

Jane Fox : 11/7/2005 2:36:12 PM

TRIN and VIX supporting SPXs new daily highs. Link

Jane Fox : 11/7/2005 2:32:53 PM

Once the AD volume started to retrace I just had this nagging suspicion this would happen today.

Jonathan Levinson : 11/7/2005 2:31:11 PM

Crude oil closes -1.125 at 59.45, off a low of 58.60, while natgas goes out +.455 at 11.87, off a low of 10.965.

Linda Piazza : 11/7/2005 2:30:33 PM

OEX Trade Signals
Although the OEX bearish trade is officially closed, I wanted to update again according to what I'm seeing. I'm seeing breakouts on the three-minute and ten-minute charts on the advdec line.

I'm personally going to hold the rest of the position until the original 564.07 stop, but I think an earlier exit is probably wiser.

Jeff Bailey : 11/7/2005 2:31:19 PM

Swing trade long setup alert ... for 1/2 bullish position for Chicago Board of Trade (BOT) $117.18 +2.78% ... go long 1/2 bullish should stock trade $118.00. Stop $110.00, target $134.00.

Disclosure: I currently hold bullish positions in BOT.

Linda Piazza : 11/7/2005 2:25:56 PM

OEX Trade Signals
Advdec line resistance held on the three-minute close. Tentatively only. Watching the ten-minute close now.

As a reminder, our play is officially closed, but I'm updating according to my methodology.

Linda Piazza : 11/7/2005 2:24:45 PM

OEX Trade Signals
The advdec line now tests the resistance that I'd be using as a standard as to whether plays would stop out by my methodology. Watching for the three-minute and then the ten-minute close, but if you're still in a bearish play, make up your own mind as to whether you'll hold to the original 564.07 stop, wait for my updates on the three-minute and ten-minute closes, or go ahead and exit now. Remember that our play today is officially stopped. I'm just updating as to what's happening by my methodology.

Jeff Bailey : 11/7/2005 2:23:26 PM

Chicago Board of Trade (BOT) $117.50 +3.07% Link ... edges to best levels of the session.

Jonathan Levinson : 11/7/2005 2:19:34 PM

QQQQ's 30 min cycle has been in a very weak downphase that has reversed up, while the 60 is in a weak upphase. There's no cycle direction evident here, but above the morning high, particularly given the higher low printed this morning, the day will resolve as another advance with the daily cycle upphase. The low volume doesn't fit very well with higher price, but so long as the buying keeps up, the uptrend remains the bottom line. Link

Linda Piazza : 11/7/2005 2:17:51 PM

The OEX's former rising trendline off the April low is at about 563.75, I believe, and the 200-sma is at 564.67.

Jeff Bailey : 11/7/2005 2:16:55 PM

02:00 Internals found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 11/7/2005 2:16:01 PM

Previous high of the day for the OEX about to be tested, with that high of the day at 563.37 and with the OEX at 563.24. The advdec line is now testing its resistance zone from the current 685 level up to about 825-850 now.

Jonathan Levinson : 11/7/2005 2:14:13 PM

QQQQ hits a new high for the afternoon, 6 cents off its morning high: Link

Jane Fox : 11/7/2005 2:13:51 PM

TICKs +1000

Linda Piazza : 11/7/2005 2:13:47 PM

OEX Trade Signals
There went the advdec line, springing up from that same support configuration that bounced it this morning. See my 2:07:18 post. It's again springing into resistance, with that resistance beginning at about +400 and extending up to +800 now. As a reminder, the rest of our position is officially stopped, but I've promised the last few days to let OEX bears know how the trade would proceed according to my methodology, and it would not yet be stopped according to that methodology, but it would certainly be getting close again. I think I'd advise not running too much more of a risk, if in bearish plays.

Jonathan Levinson : 11/7/2005 2:13:17 PM

Volume breadth +1.14:1 on the NYSE, +1.84:1 on the Nasdaq.

Jane Fox : 11/7/2005 2:09:36 PM

TICKS +800 and the bulls are back.

Linda Piazza : 11/7/2005 2:07:18 PM

Advdec line testing the support that it hit at about 11:30 this morning, just prior to the bounce off the low. That support has risen higher than it was then, but it's a similar configuration. Again, as happened then, any rise now will be a rise into likely (and now proven) resistance), but any significant bounce produced here also is from proven support, and only clouds the picture more.

Jeff Bailey : 11/7/2005 2:06:48 PM

02:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 11/7/2005 2:03:56 PM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - A small number of domestic commercial banks eased lending standards and terms for commercial and industrial loans over the past three months, the Federal Reserve said Monday. Five out of 57 banks surveyed by the Fed eased their terms "somewhat" for commercial and industrial loans to large and medium-sized companies, the Fed said in its quarterly senior loan officer survey. Meanwhile, 15% of domestic banks reported an increase in demand for commercial and industrial loans over the past three months, the Fed said. That's down from the 40% increase reported in the last survey.

Linda Piazza : 11/7/2005 2:01:02 PM

Advdec line rapidly approaching the support that held it this morning, now pushed down to about -50, with the advdec line now at 33, Qcharts value.

Linda Piazza : 11/7/2005 1:58:33 PM

Stop-running move quickly being reversed on the OEX, at least so far. We're not the only ones who know where that declining line off the 9/09 high is located, and the prices were spiked just above that line, just as they were this morning near the open. The test isn't over yet, and if enough bears get scared and start covering, the move could catch and produce gains on the OEX. So far, someone was selling into it.

Jane Fox : 11/7/2005 1:56:29 PM

Bears be careful AD volume is making new daily highs. Things are getting more and more bullish.

Linda Piazza : 11/7/2005 1:55:30 PM

Here it comes, the stop-running push. Will it hold? This was not a big push yet on the advdec line, but the OEX front-ran it.

Linda Piazza : 11/7/2005 1:54:41 PM

Advdec line sinking. If it keeps declining, the next important test of support will be at about -21, with the support now located there stopping the advdec line's decline earlier today. Meanwhile, the OEX tries to rise. Advdec line now at +225 as I type . . . oops, popped up to 325 as I typed and the OEX rose, too.

Linda Piazza : 11/7/2005 1:45:25 PM

Next Keltner resistance for the OEX at 562.77 on five-minute closes. The OEX is jammed right underneath that descending trendline off the 9/09 high, though, with that trendline at about 562.75 if I've drawn it correctly.

We're in a stop-running time of day, so be careful, whether in bullish or bearish plays. If you see a sharp spike in the direction of your play over the next few minutes, you don't want to see it quickly reversed.

Jonathan Levinson : 11/7/2005 1:40:54 PM

Ten year notes are bouncing from 107 3/4, TNX dropping back down to a 1.4 bp loss at 4.643%.

Linda Piazza : 11/7/2005 1:39:15 PM

TRAN to a new high of the day. Friday's high was 3976.93, and the TRAN is now at 3976.24, so it's still testing today's and Friday's high. Thursday's intraday high was above 4,000, of course, at 4002.48.

Jeff Bailey : 11/7/2005 1:49:43 PM

Natural Gas bearish/bullish vertical counts ... December ($0.20 box) bearish to $11.40 (achieved) with bullish support trend at $10.00. Currently needs a trade at $14.60 to generate a "buy signal."

January ($0.20 box) bearish to $11.80, bullish support trend at $10.00. Currently needs a trade at $15.00 to generate a "buy signal."

February ($0.20 box) bearish to $11.80. Bullish support trend at $10.40. Currently needs a trade at $14.80 to generate a "buy signal."

Continuous Natural Gas ($NATGAS) $0.20 box chart at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 11/7/2005 1:35:40 PM

QQQQ continues to hug lower rising pennant support, currently at 40.14. The short cycle is in a slow rollover, opposed to the wavelet which is turning up. Volume is a fraction of recent sessions, just 42.1M shares traded so far, not even half of Friday's 100M+ volume. Link

Linda Piazza : 11/7/2005 1:31:54 PM

OEX Trade Signals
As a reminder, the rest of our position is officially stopped, but I've promised the last few days to let OEX traders know how the trade would proceed according to my methodology, and it would not yet be stopped according to that methodology. Now we have the advdec line in another iffy place, but the opposite of the previous one. It's just broken minimally through the support of its rising regression channel off the day's low, although it's not yet confirmed that by a drop below 200-250, much less a drop to a new low. Between that rising trendline and 200-250 support is definitely another iffy zone, but a more bearish one that the iffy zone we were seeing earlier. Advdec line at 355 as I type.

Jeff Bailey : 11/7/2005 1:48:14 PM

Unleaded Gas bearish/bullish vertical counts ... December ($0.01 box) bearish to $1.40. Negated on current trade at $1.64. Testing bullish support trend at $1.54 during today's floor trade.

January bearish to $1.52. Would be negated on current trade at $1.69. Bullish support trend currently at $1.54.

Continuous Unleaded ($GASO) $0.01 box found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 11/7/2005 1:28:34 PM

There's still not a soul interested in that 565 put on the OEX Weeklys, but still some interest in the 560 call. This is far from any kind of contrarian sentiment indicator, as a lot of people don't even know these Weeklys exist now and they're far too thinly traded to interest me, but we have a 138 to 0 bet among options traders that the OEX is going up rather than down and that interests me.

Linda Piazza : 11/7/2005 1:24:47 PM

The TRAN has been testing the previous high of the day, as well as Friday's high. It's coming back to do so again, with the previous HOD at 3975.41 and the TRAN now at 3973.88.

Jonathan Levinson : 11/7/2005 1:23:28 PM

Session high for gold here, +2.7 at 460.5. Daily chart of Dec. gold at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 11/7/2005 1:26:36 PM

Heating Oil bearish/bullish vertical counts ... December ($0.01 box) bearish to $1.89 (exceeded).

January ($0.01 box) bearish to $1.76, would be negated on current trade at $1.89. Recent action found buyers lurking at bullish support trend ($1.80).

March ($0.01 box) bearish to $1.93 (exceeded).

Linda Piazza : 11/7/2005 1:19:20 PM

Advdec line testing that 250-ish support I mentioned. It's at 329 as I type, QCharts value. The rising trendline off today's advdec line low, the probable bear flag support, is at about 295. OEX bears want to see the advdec line drop below 250, at least, and preferably below 200.

Jonathan Levinson : 11/7/2005 1:16:53 PM

Volume breadth is -1.1:1 on the NYSE, +1.8:1 on the Nasdaq.

Jeff Bailey : 11/7/2005 1:13:15 PM

01:00 Internals found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 11/7/2005 1:12:15 PM

OEX Trade Signals
As a reminder, the rest of our position is officially stopped, but I'm letting you know each day how the plays would proceed according to my methodology. The rest of the position would not yet have been stopped. As I posted a few minutes ago, the advdec line has been testing the upper end of that range of S/R and threatening to break above that resistance. It has not done that yet, with that resistance now risen to about +750 as I noted earlier, and with the advdec line currently at 495, QCharts value. So far, that resistance holds, but only tentatively and those still in bearish positions want to see a strong advdec line drop, back below 250 at least. Still iffy at this point, although it did not yet stop out a play by my methodology. I just do not want to discourage you from taking any profit you might be tempted to take because evidence remains iffy at this point.

Jonathan Levinson : 11/7/2005 1:12:20 PM

Central banks took 4.05B of the 13-week bills and 5.16B of the 26-week bills, 9.2B of the 36B auctioned in a total. The 13 week bills set a high-rate of 3.87% yielding 3.963%, with a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.3. The 26 week bills sold for 4.155% yielding 4.303%, with 2.01 bids tendered for each accepted.

Jane Fox : 11/7/2005 1:07:21 PM

These are telling you the bulls and bears are having a battle and you should not be in the market either long or short. Link

Jeff Bailey : 11/7/2005 1:03:50 PM

01:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 11/7/2005 1:00:43 PM

Question ... What do your point and figure charts show as the bearish vertical count for oil?

Reply: December $58.50, January $59.50 (recently achieved).

February PnF shows bullish vertical count to $71 ($0.50 box scale), construction completed. Negated should contract currently trade $60.00.

Additional energy commodity bearish/bullish counts to follow.

Linda Piazza : 11/7/2005 12:59:05 PM

OEX Trade Signals
As a reminder, the rest of our position is officially stopped, but I'm letting you know each day how the plays would proceed according to my methodology. The rest of the position would not yet have been stopped. Now the advdec line is threatening to end the play according to my methodology, too. It's not quite there, but you're being offered an opportunity to squeeze out just below the original entry, so if you're not willing to have another retest of the day's high, this is an opportunity to exit. Unless the advdec line turns around soon, I think we'll likely see a stronger bounce attempt. Advdec line at 568, with next resistance at about 750 now.

Linda Piazza : 11/7/2005 12:55:21 PM

If you think that S/R doesn't matter on the advdec line, take a look at this horizontal line I drew this morning, before the market opened. I drew it as the locus of important S/R, not as a specific line, but it's certainly shown some relevance today. Currently, the neckline of that inverse H&S and that horizontal resistance are being exceeded, but there's further resistance up to about +725, so the interpretation is still a bit up in the air at this point. Link It's looking more bullish than it did earlier, but not above all resistance yet, just testing the zone and doing it during the lunchtime lull.

Jonathan Levinson : 11/7/2005 12:50:05 PM

QQQQ is wedging itself into a pennant here as the short cycle upphase begins to tire below overbought territory. 72 SMA support is at the low end of the apex at 40.10: Link

Linda Piazza : 11/7/2005 12:49:28 PM

Here comes another push in the advdec line, up toward resistance. The last drop back in the advdec line may actually have been the right shoulder for that inverse H&S I mentioned, with the previous right-shoulder-appearing formation actually part of the head. It looks as if a climb much above 425-450 would likely confirm that inverse H&S, with the advdec line now at 357, QCharts value. The advdec line has resistance from the current level, up to about 700-725 now, though, so between +200 and +750, it's in a kind of no-where land.

Jeff Bailey : 11/7/2005 12:46:32 PM

FARO Technologies (FARO) $16.75 -6.67% Link ... entombed again today with Robert W. Baird downgrade. On Friday, the 3D measurement systems-maker saw its shares fall after reporting Q1 net income $0.18 a share, which was below consensus of $0.25 a share.

Tab Gilles : 11/7/2005 12:31:43 PM

Murphy Oil (MUR) Trailing 10-ema stop hit- *SELL*.( As per 11/4 12:55AM post) Exit $46.85 on entry 9/16 $48.85 & 11/2 $47.75 (-3%). Link Link

Jonathan Levinson : 11/7/2005 12:29:57 PM

Volume breadth has yet to return to positive on the NYSE despite the strong surge in the Nasdaq and YM's return to the highs. Bonds have weakened within positive territory, TNX up to a 1.2 bp loss at 4.645%. The picture remains confusing, as I'm seeing no fresh clues in the price action this morning.

Linda Piazza : 11/7/2005 12:24:39 PM

TRAN rising again, to test the day's high or 3975.09, with the TRAN currently at 3972.49.

Linda Piazza : 11/7/2005 12:23:02 PM

OEX Exit Point Alert
We were just stopped out of the rest of our OEX position. Entry 562.44. First profit 561.66. Stopped out of the rest of the position at 562.44, our entry.

I had thought about raising the stop and alternately about just bailing from the rest of the position. As to the stop, there was a chance of a move all the way to the day's high, and I'd already told aggressive traders they might keep the original stop, so there was ample opportunity to decide ahead of time if the stop would be taken or not. As to bailing, there was still--is still--the possibility of a further down move, so it seemed worth the risk to try to hold on. This play would not yet be stopped according to my parameters, but if the advdec line climbs much further than +600 to +650, I'd have to consider it.

Jeff Bailey : 11/7/2005 12:21:58 PM

Stillwater Mining (SWC) $9.26 -7.58% Link ... percentage loser on the Big Board after the miner of palladium, platinum, and associated metals said its net loss grew to $9.1 million, or $0.10 per share, compared to a loss of $944,000, or $0.01 per share in the year-ago quarter.

Consensus was for a profit of $0.02 a share.

Jonathan Levinson : 11/7/2005 12:21:14 PM

QQQQ clears the pivot and runs back to the 40.20 line as the 30 min channel turns back up. Volume breadth is up to +2.1:1 on the Nasdaq here. Link

Jane Fox : 11/7/2005 12:20:33 PM

TICKS +800.

Jane Fox : 11/7/2005 12:20:50 PM

AD line is now above 0 but at +37 I would not be making any bullish bets on it. AD volume is still below 0 but I see the bulls getting stronger.

Linda Piazza : 11/7/2005 12:19:07 PM

OEX Trade Signals
To let you know what I'm seeing on the advdec line, so far it's just rising for a retest of former support to see if it holds as resistance. It's not doing any alarming, but it may still stop our play, and I can't guarantee that the resistance will hold. There's the possibility of a down-all-day type move, but also of a doji-type day, with a bounce in the afternoon if that resistance gives way.

Jane Fox : 11/7/2005 12:18:18 PM

Bullisness is creeping back in. VIX has broken below its bullish/bearish line but SPX has not yet. Link

Linda Piazza : 11/7/2005 12:17:12 PM

There's a potential inverse H&S on the advdec line's three-minute chart, so our stop may well be hit. Even if the inverse H&S goes no where, there's still the potential for the advdec line to climb, now up to at least +244, with it at 243.97.

Jeff Bailey : 11/7/2005 12:14:54 PM

12:00 Internals found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 11/7/2005 12:10:04 PM

The TRAN is back in that triangle from earlier today, after its attempt to break out to the upside.

Jonathan Levinson : 11/7/2005 12:07:12 PM

QQQQ looks extended on a daily chart, with the 10-day stochastic diverging against the breakaway gap up last week. But the bounce came from a higher low, for a possible broad rising triangle over the past 6 months. This is a complex picture, something for bulls as well as bears, and this week's net change should provide some valuable directional clues for the remainder of the year. Link

Linda Piazza : 11/7/2005 12:05:49 PM

The TRAN broke out of its triangle on top of today's climb, but has now dipped back to test the triangle's former resistance line, to see if it holds as support. The advdec line did make it up to +95, but not yet back to the +200 I thought it might retest. It's dropped back to test support now, with that support down to about -250 and then again at -490, with the advdec line now at -118, QCharts value. Just lots of squiggling around right now.

Jeff Bailey : 11/7/2005 12:05:38 PM

12:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 11/7/2005 11:56:54 AM

SanDisk (SNDK) $61.76 -5.18% Link ... 3-box reversal after powerful unleashing of spread triple top buy signal at $54.00.

Robert W. Baird downgrades to "neutral" from "outperform."

Jonathan Levinson : 11/7/2005 11:54:17 AM

Volume breadth is up to -1.1:1 on the NYSE, +1.6:1 on the Nasdaq.

Jeff Bailey : 11/7/2005 11:53:15 AM

China Medical Tech (CMED) $24.65 +10.73% ... sharply higher. The China-based developer, manufacturer, and marketer of products for the treatment of solid cancers reported Q1 net revenue of RMB 88.1 million ($10.0 million), up 81.6% year-over-year and up 43.3% sequentially.

Net income was RMB 42.9 million ($5.3 million), up 61.3% year-over-year and 42.1% sequentially. Fully diluted earnings per ADS were RMB 1.78 ($0.22 a share) for the quarter.

Note: Each ADS represents 10 ordinary shares.

Linda Piazza : 11/7/2005 11:49:53 AM

OEX Trade Signals
It's possible and maybe even likely that the advdec line will climb up toward +275-300. It's at +58 now, and that bump could be enough to pick off our stop. If the advdec line stops and rolls over from that level, that will not be a bullish development, but we won't know until it's tested, if it is. For now, I'm going to leave the official stop where it is. I said earlier that aggressive bears could leave it at the original stop. I'll let you know what I'm seeing as I see it for those who choose to stay in the play, but be careful if you do. Bulls absolutely have not given up, and that's why I lowered the stop.

Jonathan Levinson : 11/7/2005 11:45:32 AM

Headlines:

FTSE 100 UP 37 POINTS, OR 0.7%, AT 5,460

FRENCH CAC 40 UP 0.1%, OR 5 POINTS, AT 4,503

GERMAN DAX 30 UP 0.6%, OR 29 POINTS, AT 5,024

Jane Fox : 11/7/2005 11:43:35 AM

If the AD volume breaks back above 0 I would be out of my short positions but that is still not enough evidence to be into long positions. I will need to see the VIX and SPX break their respective red trendlines and both AD line and AD volume make new daily highs before I could say the bulls are taking control.

Jeff Bailey : 11/7/2005 11:43:51 AM

Natural Gas Services (AMEX:NGS) $21.14 -12.50% Link ... sharply lower. The provider of equipment and services to the U.S. natural gas and oil industry confirms Q3 2005 earnings call to start Thursday at 04:00 PM EST.

Jane Fox : 11/7/2005 11:40:32 AM

The VIX has just confirmed a lower high and one has to wonder will the SPX now confirm its higher low with a break of the swing high at 11:05?

Linda Piazza : 11/7/2005 11:39:39 AM

The OEX 15-minute Keltner channel gives no information about the next direction. Strongest resistance is at 563.22 and strongest support is at 558.31-558.88. So far today, the OEX is finding support on 15-minute closes at a line currently at 560.77, so bears would like to see that fail on a 15-minute close, preferably before the stop is hit on the bearish play. Smile.

Linda Piazza : 11/7/2005 11:36:57 AM

TRAN currently rising to test the top of the neutral triangle on top of its climb this morning (five-minute chart). The top of that formation is at about 3966, with the TRAN currently at 3964.87. The bottom of the formation is at about 3955.50 currently.

Jonathan Levinson : 11/7/2005 11:36:21 AM

QQQQ retests the previous high at the 40.11 pivot, rising back above the 72 SMA. The 30 min channel downphase is on the verge of stalling, and volume breadth has ticked up to +1.7:1 on the Nasdaq. Link

Jeff Bailey : 11/7/2005 11:33:37 AM

Isle of Capris Casinos (ISLE) $24.40 +9.66% ... Stock continues to build gains despite warning investors on Thursday that it expects a Q2 loss due to hurricane damage along the U.S. Gulf Coast.

On Thursday, ISLE said it expects to report a loss of $0.03 to $0.07 a share, compares with a previous estimate for a profit of at least $0.01 a share.

Linda Piazza : 11/7/2005 11:31:37 AM

I thought the advdec line had concluded its test of resistance, but it had other ideas. It's conducting that test now from a position of weakness, but bulls still haven't given up yet. The OEX, meanwhile, coils at the bottom of its drop, but we aren't going to draw too many conclusions about which way it will break. You have your partial profit, your new stop at the entry level, and have had multiple opportunities to exit the rest of the position, so now it's just waiting out this test.

Jeff Bailey : 11/7/2005 11:30:33 AM

Intrawest (IDR) $25.01 +2.50% ... Destination resort and advanture-travel company announcing it plans to buy back up to 4.6 million shares, or 10% of public float during next 52 weeks. Buyback could begin as soon as November 15.

Jonathan Levinson : 11/7/2005 11:29:25 AM

Ten year notes hold the bulk of their gain, TNX currently down 2.4 bps at 4.633%. The 13-week rate, IRX, is down 1.5 bps at 3.85%. The Treasury will auction 36B of 13- and 26-week bills today, the results of which are expected at 1PM.

Jane Fox : 11/7/2005 11:25:19 AM

Well so much for any bullish predictions. Ad volume and AD line are now making new daily lows.

Linda Piazza : 11/7/2005 11:24:20 AM

Advdec line has concluded its test of resistance and now hits a new LOD. Not the OEX yet, however. Not yet.

Linda Piazza : 11/7/2005 11:23:15 AM

I've roughed out a Traders Corner article for this next weekend on the Weeklys, the new options offered for the OEX and SPX, listed each Friday (except for the Friday preceding an opex week) and expiring the next Friday. I'm not trading them because of the low OI and volume, although I'm watching them. This morning, the short-term sentiment by some traders appeared to be bullish, as the slightly in-the-money 560 call saw more than 100 contracts traded early in the day, but the ITM 565 put has yet to see a single contract traded today. The 560 put did see some activity, but only 60 contracts.

Jonathan Levinson : 11/7/2005 11:16:23 AM

QQQQ's short cycle has turned up off the 39.95 bounce, price failing to break the pivot at 40.11 and how trading both sides of the 72 SMA. Volume remains neutral at -1.09:1, direction still up for grabs. Link

Linda Piazza : 11/7/2005 11:16:21 AM

No new low of the day for the OEX yet. Bears would like to see one, with the previous LOD at 560.56. Last week, I was mentioning the 50% retracement of the decline off the 9/09 high, but there's another 50% retracement to consider, that off the 7/28 high, with that one at about 560.52 and obviously helping to provide support today. The OEX at 561.22 as I type.

Jane Fox : 11/7/2005 11:15:47 AM

I have drawn in red trendlines where I think the bulls will start to gain momentum. Link

Jeff Bailey : 11/7/2005 11:12:16 AM

11:00 Internals found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 11/7/2005 11:12:08 AM

The advdec line has dropped to test that same support that held it at about 10:30. It still looks relatively srong, but the advdec line is sinking just below it as I type. Needs to sink deeper. It's at -272, QCharts value.

Jane Fox : 11/7/2005 11:09:07 AM

AD volume has now retraced 50% of it daily range but it is still below 0. AD line has not retraced this 50% and is also still below 0 so the bears retain firm control of the reins. Earlier I thought the day was setting up for a bearish slam dunk but once the AD volume retraced to 50% I now think we are in for a battle and I'm not entirely sure the bears will win.

Linda Piazza : 11/7/2005 11:06:50 AM

The OEX broke to the upside out of its bear-flag-like formation, gapping up on the three-minute chart, but is currently reversing. One of Keene's "Scare Bear" moves? See Keene's 10:12:59 post on the Futures side. I'm not sure if that's what it is or just bulls seeing a buying opportunity when bears couldn't move the indices lower for a while. Meanwhile, the advdec line is moving up to retest that +200 to +600 zone I was mentioning earlier today as possible strong support, to see if it holds as resistance now. So far, it is, but I'm not sure the test is concluded.

Jonathan Levinson : 11/7/2005 11:04:49 AM

Stuck on a phone call- back in a moment.

Jeff Bailey : 11/7/2005 11:02:03 AM

11:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 11/7/2005 10:57:59 AM

OEX Trade Signals
The OEX's climb off its LOD so far looks like a bear flag climb, but we've seen these get away from us. No worries, though, because we've got that partial profit and a reset stop. If you're nervous, bail any time. The advdec line is probably going to come up to test the next +300-400 resistance zone.

Jeff Bailey : 11/7/2005 10:56:08 AM

Last 3 WEEKLY Pivot Matrix found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 11/7/2005 10:51:46 AM

This is the lightest 1st hour QQQQ volume we've seen in many sessions. As always, there are two interpretations. Firstly, it could show that the selling is just retail, not a true exodus and not a true top being printed. Or, much more bearishly, a destruction of value with less resulting liquidity generation, as the price is dropping for everyone with relatively less cash being withdrawn. Given that QQQQ is down all of 3 cents from its close, both interpretations are probably over the top- but so far, that failure at the high and drop back to Friday's range are on lighter than usual volume.

Jane Fox : 11/7/2005 10:49:41 AM

AD line is pulling back a bit but the AD volume continues to make new daily lows telling me the pullback is only temporary. AD volume is just too good an indicator of bullishness or bearishness to ignore.

Linda Piazza : 11/7/2005 10:48:45 AM

OEX Trade Signals
We have to wait things out now while the advdec line and OEX both test support, perhaps try some bounces. The advdec line is not setting up in any bullish way, at all, but that doesn't mean that the PPT might not come in and rescue the markets and ruin our play. It also doesn't mean that a tepid advdec line bounce might not produce a stronger bounce in the OEX if all the money is going into big caps. However, we've taken partial profit and reset the stop to the 562.44 entry, so any bid/ask-induced loss on the rest of the position is going to be small even if the play is stopped. I'm not seeing anything alarming yet.

Jeff Bailey : 11/7/2005 10:48:11 AM

Weekly/Monthly Pivot Matrix found at this Link

Jane Fox : 11/7/2005 10:35:08 AM

Here is how the SPX is trading compared to the VIX. I would be keeping a eye on this relationship for divergences that hint of bullishness. I see none yet however. Link

Linda Piazza : 11/7/2005 10:34:00 AM

Advdec line and OEX both hitting support, OEX trying to bounce. If the advdec line bounces, bears would like to see the bounce stopped by about +300, if not lower. It's not bouncing yet, but only trying to steady.

Linda Piazza : 11/7/2005 10:29:47 AM

I wish someone would tell my charting service how to change the TRAN's daily chart so that it doesn't always combine the current daily candle with the previous day's candle. The TRAN is off its day's high, which was a retest of Friday's high, but it's pretty much stayed within the range of Friday's open to Friday's close. It opened just a touch lower than Friday's close.

Jonathan Levinson : 11/7/2005 10:27:43 AM

QQQQ is so far finding support above Friday's afternoon range, having bounced at the 30 min channel bottom at 39.95. The bounce is heavy so far, and that channel support is drifting lower. With volume breadth holding lightly negative, direction is still up in the air, but a lot less bullishly tilted then it was just before the cash open. Link

Linda Piazza : 11/7/2005 10:26:43 AM

OEX Exit Point Alert
Reset stop to entry, at 562.44. Aggressive traders can keep it where it is, at 564.07, just above those equal highs.

Linda Piazza : 11/7/2005 10:24:17 AM

OEX Trade Signals
Next important OEX support are those 240-minute 100/130-ema's at 558.57 and 559.55. These showed their importance over the last week, with five 240-minute candles required to test that resistance before the OEX could get over it and with five (including the current one) since testing it, always bouncing from the 130-ema. If you're nervous, set a profit target anywhere between the current level and that 130-ema and congratulate yourself for taking profit and honoring your trading style.

Linda Piazza : 11/7/2005 10:20:55 AM

The advdec line is sitting right on strong support, now at about 147, with the advdec line now at 181, QCharts value. The advdec line looks ugly today, but this remains a potentially strong support level, and the OEX is also approaching potentially strong support at 561.23, with that number important for many reasons, including a long-term Fib level. Being tested now.

Jane Fox : 11/7/2005 10:20:00 AM

ER and NQ are making new daily lows but ES and YM are not. As a matter of fact YM seems to be making a higher high.

Jonathan Levinson : 11/7/2005 10:19:01 AM

Volume breadth goes neutral at -1.01:1 as the Qs test 72 SMA support at 40.05: Link

Linda Piazza : 11/7/2005 10:18:24 AM

And, of course, there's our original first partial profit target.

Linda Piazza : 11/7/2005 10:17:54 AM

OEX Exit Point Alert
Entry at 562.44. Partial profit taken at 561.66. Keep stop at 564.07 for now.

Jane Fox : 11/7/2005 10:16:46 AM

This is not an environment where you want to be long. Link

Linda Piazza : 11/7/2005 10:16:33 AM

OEX Exit Point Alert
OEX bears, take partial profit now. Conservative traders, take full profit. Could be a down-all-day day, but that's not proven yet.

Linda Piazza : 11/7/2005 10:15:02 AM

There we go. Advdec line slipping lower again. It's not below the strongest support, though, but slipping lower through that strongest support band.

Jeff Bailey : 11/7/2005 10:13:32 AM

10:00 Internals found at this Link

Friday's Internals found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 11/7/2005 10:12:50 AM

Advdec line bouncing. Bears would like to see it find resistance below about +1100. It's at 807 as I type, QCharts value.

Jonathan Levinson : 11/7/2005 10:12:39 AM

The overdue wavelet cycle bounce has yet to slow the short cycle downphase in the Qs. Volume breadth is still positive for the Nasdaq, however, and the 30 min cycle channel hasn't yet stalled its upphase for QQQQ. But if a lower high results from this wavelet bounce, then I'll be expecting a more vigorous test of the 72 SMA support on the next dip, below which the intraday bias would go negative for the Qs. Link

Linda Piazza : 11/7/2005 10:11:09 AM

Potential H&S on the OEX's 1-minute chart. It needs to turn over below about 562.50, though, or that right shoulder is probably rising too far. It's at 562.13 as I type.

Linda Piazza : 11/7/2005 10:09:41 AM

OEX Exit Point Alert
I just realized that I accidentally typed in the wrong stop on this OEX bearish play. It should obviously have been 564.07, rather than 554.07. I don't want to go back and change the original, because that would change the time stamp on the entry.

I got too cute with the first profit at 561.44, wanting a full point, because the OEX dipped to 561.49 before this bounce. Should have just said to take profit just above 561.50.

Jane Fox : 11/7/2005 10:09:26 AM

I see nothing bullish so far. Vix is supporting the bearishness with new daily highs. TRIN is supporting the bearishness with new daily highs. AD volume is supporting the bearishness making new daily lows and the AD line is neutral at +180.

Linda Piazza : 11/7/2005 10:06:29 AM

I think the OEX is going to bounce now to test 561.95 from the underside, and bears want to see that resistance hold on 15-minute closes. Next resistance at the 562.50-ish zone.

Jonathan Levinson : 11/7/2005 10:04:35 AM

Crude oil is down .825 at 59.75, a new session low. Natgas is -.385 at 11.03, 6.5 cents off the low.

Linda Piazza : 11/7/2005 10:04:17 AM

OEX Exit Point Alert
Take partial profit at 561.44, if touched. Conservative trades, take full profit. Advdec line testing strongest support, with the test not over yet.

Jane Fox : 11/7/2005 10:03:49 AM

I will be on the side of bears as long as the AD volume continues to make new daily lows and stay below 0. I think Linda did get a great OEX entry for it will take a lot of work for the bulls to pull this out of the water.

Jeff Bailey : 11/7/2005 10:03:16 AM

10:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 11/7/2005 10:02:06 AM

QQQQ has now filled the opening gap, holding 6 cents above 72 SMA support at 40.03. The short cycles have rolled over, and the bottomy wavelet cycle oscillator (middle oscillator pane) is now trending bearishly in oversold: Link

Jonathan Levinson : 11/7/2005 9:57:12 AM

The Fed announces a 6B overnight repo, bringing the day's new money up to 6.8B. Only agency collateral was used, and the stop out rate was 4.01, 1 bp above the target rate and showing a slightly greater demand for the money. The Treasury is raising new cash (around 5B, if memory serves) in a relatively larger 36B worth of 13- and 26-week bills today, and perhaps today's repo add is there to shore up demand.

Linda Piazza : 11/7/2005 9:57:10 AM

OEX Trade Signals
Depending on what happens with the advdec line as it tests support, we could have seen a setup for a down-all-day type of day, in which case we will have gotten a great entry on our bearish OEX trade, or else, we were just seeing a minor pullback before markets head higher and I was roped in with the rest of the bears. The setup was a decent one on the advdec line and its chart looks worse than the OEX's now, and the OEX was resting resistance and had pulled back below that descending trendline off the 9/09 high again. As I said, it was a decent setup, and now we see if it works or not.

Linda Piazza : 11/7/2005 9:52:59 AM

Advdec line trying to steady as it approaches that +200 to +600 support zone. Could be a bounce here, with OEX already trying to bounce. Bears would like to see the advdec line stay below about +1000 if it does bounce.

Jonathan Levinson : 11/7/2005 9:51:21 AM

Volume breadth is down to 1:1 on the NYSE, +1.5:1 on the Nasdaq.

Linda Piazza : 11/7/2005 9:49:44 AM

Advdec line still dropping, at 874 on QCharts.

Jeff Bailey : 11/7/2005 9:49:34 AM

Energy under pressure early ... OIX.X -1.24%, OSX.X -1.32%, XNG.X -1.79%.

Jonathan Levinson : 11/7/2005 9:47:44 AM

The Fed has no expirations today and the $800M coupon pass deliverable, for a net add in that amount. Any repos announced at 10AM will supplement an already positive liquidity picture.

Linda Piazza : 11/7/2005 9:47:33 AM

OEX Trade Signals
The advdec line dropping quickly, but dropping toward potential support at +200 to +600, with the advdec line now at 987. We'd like to see that support fail and for the advdec line to just keep dropping. I think it's likely to attempt to steady in that range, if not at the current level, however, and OEX bears should be prepared for a potential bounce to retest the high if it does.

Jeff Bailey : 11/7/2005 9:47:19 AM

Yellow Roadway (YELL) $47.87 +1.76% ... looking for a gear. Still bound between $47.02-$48.61 "zone of resistance."

December Heating Oil (ho05z) $1.76 -2.22%

Jeff Bailey : 11/7/2005 9:45:17 AM

Taser Intl. (TASR) $8.42 +5.51% ... another strong morning. Retraces 38.2% of May-October decline on this morning's gap higher.

Linda Piazza : 11/7/2005 9:44:42 AM

OEX Entry Point Alert
Bearish entry made at 562.44.

Note: This was the OEX price one second after the al_rt sounded. I realize that not many of you can get into a bearish play that quickly, but I have to use something to benchmark the play. I was still in a partial bearish position from Friday, so I can't use my entry as the most likely entry.

Jonathan Levinson : 11/7/2005 9:44:30 AM

QQQQ bounces from a partial gap fill, but the quick drop highlights the fact that the short cycle indicators are close to maxxed out on the upside. Bears need to see a 72 SMA failure way down at 40.02. Link

Jeff Bailey : 11/7/2005 9:42:40 AM

Nathan's Famous, Inc. (NATH) $9.31 +3.90% ... Q2 EPS $0.48 vs. $0.18. Ex-items came in at $0.21 on revenue of $11.7 million vs. $9.9 million year ago.

Linda Piazza : 11/7/2005 9:42:24 AM

Advdec line pulling back.

Linda Piazza : 11/7/2005 9:41:57 AM

OEX Entry Point Alert
Enter a bearish trade now. Stop 554.07. Too obvious an entry to let it go without a try.

Linda Piazza : 11/7/2005 9:39:01 AM

If the OEX is going to hit resistance and roll down, even for a pullback, this is one level from which it might do so, with the advdec line also hitting one level from which it might do so. Neither has pulled back yet or at least not significantly, but bulls need to be prepared for a possible pullback in case one occurs.

Jonathan Levinson : 11/7/2005 9:37:16 AM

Volume breadth weakens to +2:1 on the NYSE, strengthens to +3.2:1 on the Nasdaq.

Jeff Bailey : 11/7/2005 9:36:59 AM

Golden Star Resources (AMEX:GSS) $2.57 -0.38% ... UBS cuts target to $3.00 from $3.75. Lowers rating to "neutral" from "buy."

Linda Piazza : 11/7/2005 9:36:57 AM

Advdec line still headed higher, but headed into resistance now at about 2200.

Linda Piazza : 11/7/2005 9:36:09 AM

The 11/03 high for the OEX was 563.35. The OEX approaches a test of that level--at it now.

Linda Piazza : 11/7/2005 9:35:06 AM

OEX Keltner picture: The OEX is testing 15-minute and 30-minute Keltner resistance that held it back on Friday, with that at 562.97 on the 15-minute chart and 563.16 on the 30-minute. OEX at 563.20, still climbing, as is the advdec line.

Tab Gilles : 11/7/2005 9:34:57 AM

Nasdaq100 ($NDX) Link

Jeff Bailey : 11/7/2005 9:34:09 AM

IMS Health Inc. (RX) $22.97 ... delayed open after Dutch media company VNU NV said it is considering scrapping its planned acquisition of the U.S. health care data provider for 5.8 billion euros ($6.92 billion) due to opposition from VNU shareholders.

Jonathan Levinson : 11/7/2005 9:33:13 AM

QQQQ holds above the 30 and 60 min channel tops at the open, testing Friday's highs. Link

Linda Piazza : 11/7/2005 9:31:40 AM

OEX back against that descending trendline off the 9/09 high this morning, with that trendline at about 562.80-563 if I've drawn it correctly. OEX at 562.88 as I type.

Jonathan Levinson : 11/7/2005 9:31:18 AM

Volume breadth is +2.06:1 on the NYSE, +2.6:1 on the Nasdaq at the open.

Linda Piazza : 11/7/2005 9:30:55 AM

The expected bounce comes this morning. Will it hold? I'm watching the advdec line for clues. It's mired in a S/R band right now, but climbing, so fits with the early climb scenario so far.

Tab Gilles : 11/7/2005 9:29:23 AM

$WTIC/Murphy Oil (MUR) I'd come up with this chart late Friday night of the daily $WTIC. Link And in this weekend's Market Wrap Jim also presented a similar chart of the December Crude Oil Chart - Daily. [Excellent wrap Friday]

I've been on the same page as Jim concerning oil and the outlook for energy sector for some time now. I'm looking forward to Jim's report on the Peak Oil Conference he'll be attending.

Murphy Oil chart. Link

Jeff Bailey : 11/7/2005 9:27:40 AM

Harrah's Entertainment (HET) $63.69 and Starwood Hotels & Resorts (HOT) $58.59 set to announce plans to spend as much as $2 billion to develop a major resort and casino project in the Bahamas.

Jeff Bailey : 11/7/2005 9:24:17 AM

Time Warner (TWX) $17.61 ... marked higher at $17.74 after the company confirmed it and Microsoft (MSFT) $26.66 have been in talks for MSFT to buy a stake in AOL, with MSFT emerging as front-runner for potential sale of AOL.

MSFT approached TWX several months ago to discuss a joint venture, but any agreement may still be weeks away.

Last week Time Warner's chairman and chief executive, Richard Parsons, acknowledged the talks. But he says the discussions are very fluid, and they don't know whether a deal will even be reached.

Jeff Bailey : 11/7/2005 9:18:53 AM

Guidant (GDT) $58.92 ... lower at $55.30 after the medical device maker said it was suing Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) $60.88 to force the completion of JNJ's acquisition of Guidant.

GDT also reported Q3 earnings that fell to $65 million, or $0.20 per share, from $161 million, or $0.50 per share in the year-ago quarter. The latest results included a $43 million, or $0.12 per share charge, related to research and development.

Jeff Bailey : 11/7/2005 9:12:47 AM

TiVo (TIVO) $5.12 ... among this morning's most actives and higher at $5.65 after company said it and Yahoo! Inc. (YHOO) $37.87 have launched a collaborative service that allows TiVo users to program their digital video recorders remotely using Yahoo's television information Web sites.

Terms of the deal were not disclosed.

Shares of Yahoo! Inc. (YHOO) edged lower to $37.70.

Jonathan Levinson : 11/7/2005 9:03:56 AM

The current bounce has stopped QQQQ's 60 min cycle downphase dead, and continues to build on the 30 min cycle's closing upturn from Friday. Both preceding downphases ended prematurely, a sign of ongoing strength on a daily cycle basis. That daily cycle continues to slow its climb, however, a strange divergence from the otherwise very bullish price action.

The current setup makes it appear likely that daily cycle high is due this week. We won't know until we see at least one session print a lower high and lower low. Until that occurs, the benefit of any doubt goes to the bulls on a daily basis. The intraday action will continue to present opportunities in both directions. Currently, the short cycle indicators have entered overbought, but show no sign of weakness yet. Link

Jeff Bailey : 11/7/2005 9:00:41 AM

Program Trading Levels for Monday ... HL Camp & Company has their computers set for program buying at $+3.56 and set for program selling at $+1.26.

Linda Piazza : 11/7/2005 8:54:16 AM

First, I'm going to talk about the mixed evidence I'm seeing. Obviously, the OEX has been gaining. However, the OEX reached up and touched the trendline off the September 9 high on Thursday, but couldn't touch it again Friday. Friday, the OEX printed a near doji for the day just under that trendline, but did close just above the important daily 100-sma, mixed evidence. It was my personal conviction throughout the afternoon, after watching the action, that there would be a massive effort to close the Dow above the 200-sma so that the weekend newspapers could print that the Dow (a widely watched index by mom and pop investors) closed back above that average (a widely watched average by the same people, even those who know little about technical analysis) for the first time since early October. Surely some newspapers this weekend reported that the October swoon was over and a rally had begun.

The SPX broke above the descending trendline off its 9/09 high, but closed at that trendline both Thursday and Friday. The Nasdaq's evidence may not be quite so mixed. It has broken above the descending trendline off the August high, printing two doji in a row and leaving behind a gap. However, that gap is a running gap, produced on a breakout above a consolidation formation, and although it looms there, running gaps aren't always filled.

On some fronts, it's certainly looking as if the bulls are right. I just wish the signs had been clearer, and there weren't all these doji printed right on top of steep rises. And then, the TRAN's straight-up rise saw a steep retracement from Thursday's high after a rise that begs for a retracement. That rise was after a rejection of a bearish formation, a diamond, on its weekly chart and those rejections sometimes result in straight-up climbs as relieved bulls and scared shorts all scramble to buy at the same time. They certainly need a breather, though, don't they?

That doji on top of the OEX's steep rise presents a dilemma for bulls, though, and for all of us looking at higher futures this morning and balancing it against the OEX's usual tactic of following such a doji either with another or with an actual pullback. If the OEX traded in isolation, I'd certainly be looking for either a doji or for an actual pullback this morning, and I think we have to give a nod to that possibility today, too, but keep those other indices in mind. A doji could result from the OEX climbing higher this morning, then pulling back, so if in bullish positions, watch the internals and other indices carefully this morning to see if a bounce looks sustainable. I'll be watching to see how the internals set up this morning and will let you know what I see.

Jonathan Levinson : 11/7/2005 8:36:54 AM

Bonds are holding their gains, TNX down 3.1 bps to 4.626%, while equities make new highs, QQQQ +.12 to 40.20.

Jane Fox : 11/7/2005 8:05:17 AM

Dateline WSJ Internet powerhouses Yahoo Inc. and Google Inc. are set to roll out new wireless services, taking advantage of advanced networks and cellphones to provide features similar to those available on computers.

Yahoo, Sunnyvale, Calif., soon will introduce a cellphone that it will sell through a partnership with SBC Communications Inc., according to SBC executives. The cellphone will take a step closer to linking wirelessly such cellphone services as music, photos and email with consumers' existing Yahoo accounts, address books and preferences.

Meantime, Google, Mountain View, Calif., is tailoring some popular Internet services for use on wireless devices. Starting today, for example, consumers using some types of cellphones will be able to access satellite maps wirelessly and scroll through them as they can on the Google Maps service.

Jonathan Levinson : 11/7/2005 7:42:13 AM

GRIGNY, France (Reuters) - More than 30 police were hurt and 800 vehicles burned in France's poor suburbs as unrest spread and intensified for an 11th night despite a vow by President Jacques Chirac to defeat it.

Link

Jonathan Levinson : 11/7/2005 7:32:42 AM

Equities are up, ES trading 1223.75, NQ 1636.5, YM 10550 and QQQQ +.08 at 40.16. Gold is up .70 to 458.50, silver -.037 at 7.536. Ten year notes are up 3/32 to 107 51/64, crude oil is down .60 to 59.975, and natgas is down .225 to 11.19.

We await Consumer Credit at 3PM, est. 6B, prior 4.9B.

Linda Piazza : 11/7/2005 6:56:48 AM

Good morning. The Nikkei closed modestly lower, but most other Asian markets turned lower, too. So do most European markets. As of 6:47 EST, gold was higher by $1.10 to $459.00, and crude, down $0.73 to $59.85. Our futures were near the flat-line level. More details about Asian and European markets follows in succeeding paragraphs.

Monday, the Nikkei opened near the flat-line level, climbed for the first few minutes, matching Friday's high, and then fell. By early afternoon, it recovered somewhat, stumbled again, but then investors produced a burst higher at the last minute, closing it only 14.36 points or 0.10% in the red, at 14,061.60. September's leading and coincident indicators were released sometime during the afternoon, meeting expectations at 50.0% and 55.6%, respectively.

Despite the early market weakness, a firm's raising of estimates on Japan's top seven banks sent banks higher. Stocks related to raw materials and their production declined in early trading, but steel-maker JFE Holdings Inc. rose after its earnings release. Oil-related indices were mixed, with UBS cutting its rating and price target for Nippon Oil Corp. and sending that stock lower, but with other stocks in the sector gaining. Japan Airlines Corp. dropped after its earnings release.

Most other Asian markets turned lower. The Taiwan Weighted lost 0.87%, and South Korea's Kospi declined 0.29%. Singapore's Straits Times fell 0.42%, and Hong Kong's Hang Seng dropped 1.51%. China's Shanghai Composite inched 0.05% higher, however. Last night, the U.S. and China reached a tentative three-year deal concerning imports of Chinese textiles into the U.S. Last night, China also said it will now seek a goal of 15% renewable energy by the year 2020, reducing its reliance on fossil fuels.

Many European markets turn lower, too. In France, riots continued for an 11th straight night. In the U.K., September's industrial production rose 0.5% month over month, disappointing, and the component measuring manufacturing output disappointed. Germany's industrial production climbed in September after a decline in August. A delving into the components produced an upbeat outlook for October's number. In the Eurozone, September's retail sales dropped, but a drop was expected after August's rebound and the decline wasn't as deep as had been feared.

Lower crude and currency behaviors helped carmakers. Ryanair Holdings didn't benefit from lower crude costs, however, dropping after its earnings report. Some M&A activity was drawing interest, including a possible bid by E.ON for the U.K.'s Scottish Power and possible rival bid by Scottish & Southern Electricity. In other stock-specific news, Dutch telecom KPN dropped after its earnings report, with many other European telecommunications companies also turning lower.

As of 6:45 EST, the FTSE 100 was higher by 4.30 points or 0.08%, at 5,427.90. The CAC 40 was lower by 20.14 points or 0.45%, at 4,481.88. The DAX was lower by 18.70 points or 0.37%, at 4,992.30.

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