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Jeff Bailey : 11/10/2005 11:45:17 PM

Don't leave out those WEEKLY Pivot levels Marc! Institutions just love em! Link

Jeff Bailey : 11/10/2005 11:34:15 PM

Shoot! Just noticing that I once again "switched" the NYSE and NASDAQ NH/NL measures at the 04:00 closing reading for 11/10/05. However, the 5-day NH/NL ratio and 10-day NH/NL ratio are correct. The 04:00 NYSE NH/NL should bee 124/161 and NASDAQ's NH/NL should be 121/89.

Jeff Bailey : 11/10/2005 11:25:42 PM

Here's what tomorrow morning's 10:00 AM NH/Nl ratios would look like if we were to see EXACTLY the same number of NH/NL that we saw this morning (Thursday) Link

Jeff Bailey : 11/10/2005 11:11:56 PM

Might get an "answer" regarding bullish leadership (NH/NL) tomorrow morning. Today's NYSE NH/NL was weakest this week. This morning's 10:00 AM EST reading was 40/53. NASDAQ's was 45/37.

One would THINK that with readings at today close (see the build of NHs in last hour) with NYSE finishing 124/161 that NHs better be at least 62 at the big board, and with NASDAQ finishing 121/89, then at least 62. The New Highs cover the head of the proverbial inchworm.

IF new lows are half that of the close, then that could depict the tail of the inchworm trying to "dig in" and provide the traction for the expansion higher.

Jeff Bailey : 11/10/2005 10:35:31 PM

Good observation Marc regarding NYSE a/d ratio of 600, or 60% (take advancers, then divide by sum of advance+decline). 60% still looks a bit strong compared to 5-day average of 51% and 10-day average of 58%. Is it headed for mid-70s? Here's may table of data at this Link

OI Technical Staff : 11/10/2005 9:59:59 PM

The Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

Disclaimer: Stocks discussed in the Market Monitor are for educational purposes only and any analysis is not meant to imply a recommendation for or against that stock. The analysts in this forum as on any other website are prohibited by the SEC from giving any specific advice to ANY individual trader. All information posted is for ALL readers and is not meant to be directed to any individual. Our analysts cannot answer any email questions regarding any specific stock. Please do not ask and please do not take offense if requests are denied.

Results posted in the Market Monitor are hypothetical and OIN does not claim that any reader achieved these exact results. Due to the lag time between research, writing, posting, uploading, reading and execution there will be differences between the actual signal given and the fill achieved by the reader. Fills may be better or worse but in most cases they will be different. The writers will make every effort to give advance notice of intended signals and indicate potential price targets. Your individual results may vary depending on your activity level and aggressiveness. This forum is intended as an education service only. Trading involves risk and should not be attempted by anyone not ready to accept this risk. By acting on any signal in this forum you agree and personally accept this risk.

Jeff Bailey : 11/10/2005 8:17:35 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles found at this Link

Today's Activity ... Bullish swing trade stopped out of the 1/2 bullish position Chicago Board of Trade (BOT) at $110.00. ($-8.50, or -7.17%).

Swing trade shorted full position in Schlumberger (SLB) at the bid of $91.31, stop $93.50 and targeting $87.80. While energy prices slid again today, the delayed plan on a package of cuts to federal benefits program and agreement among House Republicans to drop language designed to open Alaska's Arctic wildlife refuge to energy exploration could be a major blow. More than $87.80 target. As always, we shall see.

Swing trade long 1/2 bullish position in shares of Frontier Airlines (FRNT) at the offer of $9.73, stop $9.20 to begin, targeting $10.15 (subject to upward revisions). Yes... an "if you can't beat them, then join them" type of trade. See AMR $16.05 +6.5%.

Jeff Bailey : 11/10/2005 6:43:24 PM

Closing U.S. Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 11/10/2005 6:35:01 PM

Closing Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 11/10/2005 5:56:27 PM

PLAY based on "range of trade" since announcement of secondary (if responsible for sell off) then at 19.1% retracement, $25 - $0.80 = $24.20 becomes early point of "whew, I'm hedged against the NAKED calls I sold."

From here $24.20, it becomes a game of perception at tomorrow's open. Excessive call buying at $0.80 and higher then becomes $25.80, $26.55, $27.00. Call selling becomes the low end of $24.20, $23.45 and $23.00.

Jeff Bailey : 11/10/2005 5:51:44 PM

PLAY alert ... $24.13 here. IF long from earlier alert, would exit some here. Here's why. Nov. $25 Call (PQP-KE) at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 11/10/2005 5:17:47 PM

PLAY ... "old" options chain screen capture from 10/19/05 Close Link . Looking at the OI of those $25 Calls back then of 4,270. $25 Call OI now 6,821 and I would have to think that after the gap down on news of secondary, there may have been a lot of selling of these calls. Today, the Nov. $22.50 Calls (PQP-KX) were active (1,681:4,372) as were the Dec. $22.50 Calls (PQP-LX) (1,192:7,321).

I must admit a bias here. I felt the company pulled the rug out from under a bull's feet when they announced the secondary offering during earnings. Now they might have pulled the rug out from under a bear's paw. Another bias is that I currently hold one (1) Nov. $25 Call, which looked as if it was going to go "poof." Maybe not?

All is fair in love and war.

I have been waiting to see/hear just where they were going to price the secondary, they never did say. Now they aren't going to come with it. There may be some shorts on the wrong side of this trade if they were short, and looking to cover into the secondary.

Jeff Bailey : 11/10/2005 4:54:39 PM

Dell Computer (DELL) $29.19 +0.58% ... $29.02 in extended.

Company said net income fell to $606 million, or $0.25 a share, from $846 million, or $0.33 a share in the same period a year ago. Recent quarterly results hurt by $422 million in charges ($0.14 per share in charges) to repair a faulty computer component and costs related to restructuring.

Operating income was $754 million, or $0.39 a share, which was inline with consensus of $0.39.

Sales were a record $13.9 billion, up 11% from the $12.5 billion last year. However, the $13.9 billion was below company's prior guidance of $14.1 to $14.5 billion and analysts' forecast of $14.3 billion.

Jeff Bailey : 11/10/2005 4:40:49 PM

PortalPlayer history ... see Link and 04:44:54 PM post. It was thought by some that PLAY fell sharply based on the announcement of proposed secondary offering.

Jeff Bailey : 11/10/2005 4:28:20 PM

PortalPlayer (PLAY) alert $21.24 -0.97% Link ... higher at $22.85 in extended session. Company saying it has cancelled previously announced secondary offering.

Board of Directors believe current stock price does not reflect the company's market opportunity and future growth prospects.

In light of the withdrawn S-1 filing, new guidance given. Now expects GAAP net income for Q4 to be between $0.37 and $0.47, on 26.2 million weighted average shares outstanding. Excluding the effects of non-cash stock compensation charges of $600,000 to $800,000, the company expects non-GAAP net income per diluted share to be in the range of $0.40 to $0.50 a share.

This compares with previous guidance of GAAP net income of $0.34 to $0.43 a share and non-GAAP net income per diluted share in the range of $0.37 to $0.46.

Linda Piazza : 11/10/2005 3:54:34 PM

OEX Trade Signals
Entry was made into a bearish OEX trade at 566.46. Exit was at 567.40, for a 0.93 move against the position.

Linda Piazza : 11/10/2005 3:51:50 PM

And here's the move that the advdec line was suggesting. You wait and you wait until the perfect moment. I waited all day for that setup, and then we were shaken out of it. However, we were shaken out of it by the most conservative interpretation of my methodology, taking full accountability, as my reader said yesterday. The trade set up again a few minutes ago, but I didn't want to risk last-minute short-covering. We'll look tomorrow again.

Linda Piazza : 11/10/2005 3:45:56 PM

The OEX has climbed up to a best-fit trendline off the summer's high. This trendline cuts off a few upper shadows, but forms along the candle bodies descending from that trendline. This trendline also describes the top of a descending regression channel off that summer high. Time now for a breakout above that channel or a downturn through it.

Remember that Dell reports after the close.

Jeff Bailey : 11/10/2005 3:41:12 PM

Ryland Group (RYL) $68.89 +3.02% ... has battled back to its 200-day SMA Link

Jonathan Levinson : 11/10/2005 3:41:05 PM

Volume breadth is up to +1.65:1 on the NYSE, +1.6:1 on the Nasdaq.

Linda Piazza : 11/10/2005 3:39:00 PM

Advdec still going higher. Still bearish divergence on the five-minute chart and some others. The TRAN is pulling back slightly from 4050.

Jonathan Levinson : 11/10/2005 3:35:17 PM

So far the downturn in the short cycle indicators is entirely tractionless, corrective, and bullish: Link

Linda Piazza : 11/10/2005 3:33:20 PM

I'm seeing the same topping signs that I was seeing earlier, and even a few more. I'm worried, however, that scared shorts may send the indices higher no matter what the charts say. Due to my connectivity issues, my skinned hide, and that possible end-of-day action by scared shorts, I'm not going to issue a new signal. If charts were telling the truth, there would be a decline into the close, but charts may not be telling the truth.

Jane Fox : 11/10/2005 3:26:21 PM

AD volume and AD line are still not giving me any evidence that a top is in.

Jonathan Levinson : 11/10/2005 3:17:27 PM

QQQQ 3-min chart updated at this Link with the short cycle and wavelet cycles turning tentatively lower from overbought extremes. Any lack of traction will spell "trending", and more bullish bias. A break of 72 SMA support at 40.30 would confirm a reversal and a new 30 min cycle downphase, but that line is a long way from the current 40.63. Link

Jane Fox : 11/10/2005 3:16:51 PM

OK evidence is coming in now that a top may be forming. Es made a new daily high but the VIX did not make a new daily low and the VIX has broken its red trendline. This not enough for sure but it is a start.

Jeff Bailey : 11/10/2005 3:16:08 PM

03:00 Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 11/10/2005 3:03:56 PM

03:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 11/10/2005 3:00:37 PM

The "Bernanke Bank Bounce" really firing on all cylinders today and the super regionals/multi-nationals Link

Jonathan Levinson : 11/10/2005 2:59:14 PM

Session highs across the board, volume breadth now climbing to +1.7:1 and +1.5:1 on the NYSE and Nasdaq.

Jeff Bailey : 11/10/2005 2:59:08 PM

Wal-Mart (WMT) $49.14 +1.95% Link ... Strong move again today as lower energy prices fuel the retail sector higher. Volume a little on the light side with today's big move above its trending lower 200-day SMA Link

Linda Piazza : 11/10/2005 2:58:32 PM

OEX Exit Point Alert
Entrance at 566.47. Exit at 567.40, for a 0.93 point move against the play. If you haven't exited, I still see the same sort of divergences as I was seeing yesterday, but they're not making any difference so far this afternoon.

Linda Piazza : 11/10/2005 2:56:24 PM

OEX Exit Point Alert
Exit now.

Linda Piazza : 11/10/2005 2:55:30 PM

Potential H&S now on the OEX's three-minute chart. May get an equal high instead, but I'm watching.

Linda Piazza : 11/10/2005 2:48:07 PM

VIX at the same place with regard to the 60-minute Keltner chart as it was the last two times it bounced. This time, though, there was no bullish divergence when commpared to yesterday's low, but there still is when compared to the November 3 low.

Jonathan Levinson : 11/10/2005 2:47:16 PM

Compressed 3-min 10-day chart of QQQQ at this Link . The cycle channels and the trendline action continue suggest resistance at and just above current levels, but the intraday action has all but the most devoted bears in full retreat.

Linda Piazza : 11/10/2005 2:46:47 PM

OEX Trade Signals
Slight downturn in the advdec line, but it's not much yet. Doji at the top of the OEX's climb. This is the thinnest of evidence, but I'm still watching. Again, we're not far from our 566.46 entrance, so if you're nervous, take your opportunity to exit. There are the kinds of divergences that I was seeing yesterday from 1:00 until about 1:30, until the advdec line finally dropped. That's absolutely not a guarantee that it will happen the same way today, but reason enough to have held on a moment longer, as I did. OEX at 566.51 as I type.

Jonathan Levinson : 11/10/2005 2:40:07 PM

Ten year notes pull off their 108 23/64 high, with TNX up to a 5.9 bp loss at 4.576%, not yet breaking yesterday's low. However, the daily cycle is on a new sell signal. A break of rising daily support would confirm a new daily cycle downphase: Link

Jonathan Levinson : 11/10/2005 2:38:12 PM

Volume breadth is up to +1.4:1 on the NYSE, +1.35:1 on the Nasdaq.

Linda Piazza : 11/10/2005 2:34:18 PM

OEX Exit Point Alert
Exit now if you're worried. I'm seeing such significant bearish divergences on the advdec line that I'm going to try to hold on a few minutes longer.

Jeff Bailey : 11/10/2005 2:32:10 PM

SOX.X 464.38 +1.25% ... session high and just above its WEEKLY R1

Jeff Bailey : 11/10/2005 2:31:07 PM

Linear Tech (LLTC) $34.77 +2.68% ... gets the trade at WEEKLY R1! #*&%!

Linda Piazza : 11/10/2005 2:30:34 PM

This is following yesterday's pattern on yesterday's spike. First spike. Small pullback. Second spike that created divergence. the OEX is now at resistance again at 566.94.

Linda Piazza : 11/10/2005 2:28:57 PM

OEX Exit Point Alert
Advdec line trying to break higher. There's the bearish divergence I want to see on the five-minute chart, but there's danger that an exit will come soon. Be on standby.

Jonathan Levinson : 11/10/2005 2:27:37 PM

QQQQ has already exceeded yesterday's volume, and volume breadth continues to strengthen, albeit very slowly, with advancing vol. now leading declining 1.2:1. QQQQ is holding just above R2, and those toppy short cycles have grown toppier. A short cycle downphase is due, but if it doesn't kick off soon, a very bullish trending move will be underway with the oscillators pinned to the ceiling. Link

Linda Piazza : 11/10/2005 2:25:51 PM

OEX Exit Point Alert
I just lost connectivity again after not having lost it for several hours. I wouldn't have opened a trade if it I'd been having problems. If I disappear, adhere to your own account-appropriate stops. I'm going to start updating more frequently than I would in case I lose connectivity again. The advdec line has not begun dropping back yet, hanging at the day's high, and currently rising to test that resistance I want it to stay below in 15-minute closes. That's now at about 400-425 on 15-minute closes, with the advdec line now at 375.

Jeff Bailey : 11/10/2005 2:18:13 PM

02:00 Internals found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 11/10/2005 2:16:09 PM

OEX Trade Signals
Advdec line resistance holding, but barely. That resistance is now at about +400, with the advdec line now at 309, and with the 15-minute period just concluded. Now we need the advdec line to fall during this period, but there could be another punch higher. So far, so good, but still iffy, so take profit any time you want, if it's offered.

Jonathan Levinson : 11/10/2005 2:14:05 PM

Volume breadth is up to +1.3:1 on the NYSE, +1.2:1 on the Nasdaq.

Linda Piazza : 11/10/2005 2:09:04 PM

OEX Entry Point Alert
We have entered a bearish OEX position at OEX 566.46. I'm watching the advdec line at about +400 and want the advdec line to close 15-minute periods below that. Advdec line now at 338. This is a risky play so take any profit offered. OEX at 566.27 as I type.

Jonathan Levinson : 11/10/2005 2:07:23 PM

Crude oil breaks its earlier high and runs to 57.975, -.95 here.

Linda Piazza : 11/10/2005 2:06:20 PM

OEX Entry Point Alert
Enter a bearish OEX (or SPX) options trade now. Advdec line resistance showing that the movement is way overdone on the short-term. Set your own account-appropriate stop. We may be out quickly. I'll let you know.

Jeff Bailey : 11/10/2005 2:04:34 PM

02:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 11/10/2005 2:04:40 PM

Headlines:

U.S. OCT. FEDERAL DEFICIT $47.2BLN VS. $57.3BLN YEAR AGO

U.S. OCT. FEDERAL REVENUES UP 8.4% TO $149.5BLN

U.S. OCT. FEDERAL OUTLAYS UP 1.3% TO $196.7BLN

Jeff Bailey : 11/10/2005 2:01:16 PM

QQQQ Option Chain at this Link

Linda Piazza : 11/10/2005 1:59:58 PM

OEX Entry Point Alert
I'm thinking about issuing a bearish signal for an OEX put position, watching to see if it sets up right. If so, remember that you're going to have to determine your own stop and choose your own option. Be thinking about it.

Jonathan Levinson : 11/10/2005 1:58:51 PM

QQQQQ testing R2, trading well above intraday short/30/60 min channel resistance- either a terminal blowoff in the daily cycle upphase, or the start of a new upleg and a trending move for the shorter cycles: Link

Jane Fox : 11/10/2005 1:58:26 PM

Do not be short here. Link

Jeff Bailey : 11/10/2005 1:56:25 PM

QQQQ Option Chain ... screen capture just prior to my alert at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 11/10/2005 1:55:15 PM

Inversion alert QQQQ $40 Calls huge buyer has Up/Dn 1,493:1,016

Jane Fox : 11/10/2005 1:55:14 PM

Another TICK +1000. We certainly have had some very nice tradable moves today

Jonathan Levinson : 11/10/2005 1:54:08 PM

QQQQ - Exit Point Alert -

Stopped out QQQQ at 40.47, -.07

Jonathan Levinson : 11/10/2005 1:52:02 PM

Volume breadth ticks positive, +1.09:1 for the NYSE and +1.03:1 for the Nasdaq.

Jane Fox : 11/10/2005 1:50:55 PM

THe VIX is certainly supporting this bullishness. Link

Jonathan Levinson : 11/10/2005 1:48:20 PM

This entry is based on the upper 30 min channel breaks, the toppy short cycle indicators and a potential bearish wavelet divergence. And, it's sporting a tight stop, in the event that this isn't just a throwover above the recent highs and channel tops.

Jonathan Levinson : 11/10/2005 1:47:09 PM

QQQQ - Entry Point Alert -

Short QQQQ at 40.40, stop 40.47

Jeff Bailey : 11/10/2005 1:46:40 PM

Bullish swing trade long alert for 1/2 position in shares of Frontier Airlines (FRNT) $9.73 +2.63% here, stop $9.20, target $10.15.

Linda Piazza : 11/10/2005 1:46:32 PM

OEX testing yesterday's high, at 565.45. OEX at 565.38 as I type, with the just-reached high at 565.48.

Jonathan Levinson : 11/10/2005 1:45:59 PM

Session high for ten year notes at 108 23/64, TNX -6.1 bps to 4.574%.

Jonathan Levinson : 11/10/2005 1:44:57 PM

Nasdaq volume breadth is up to -1.04:1, neutral but still not ticking positive.

Jane Fox : 11/10/2005 1:44:05 PM

Oh my goodness gracious AD volume just went positive and is pulling the AD line along with it. Isn't this just so much fun? Isn't this just so much like yesterday?

Linda Piazza : 11/10/2005 1:44:00 PM

The TRAN has totally invalidated that potential H&S now, but again facing resistance.

Linda Piazza : 11/10/2005 1:43:15 PM

Advdec line still climbing. The movement is beginning to look extreme now on the five- and ten-minute charts, not quite yet on the 15-minute one.

Jonathan Levinson : 11/10/2005 1:42:18 PM

After breaking the lows of the last 3 days, QQQQ pushes to a new 3 day and 52 week high: Link

Jane Fox : 11/10/2005 1:42:00 PM

TICKS +1000 they're backkkk!!!!!!!!!

Jane Fox : 11/10/2005 1:41:41 PM

With the AD volume and AD line still below 0 I would still be cautious about long positions. THe VIX is testing daily highs as ES is testing daily lows so we have bullish confirmation there but still not in sync with the AD line/volume.

Jonathan Levinson : 11/10/2005 1:40:17 PM

30 and 60 min channel resistance are up to 40.33 QQQQ, where they line up with R1. The short cycle upphase is growing toppy, with volume breadth still negative, up to -1.14:1 here for the Nasdaq: Link

Jeff Bailey : 11/10/2005 1:33:25 PM

QQQQ option chain at this Link ... Still a bearish looking bias. I'll urge some caution to bears if the QQQQ breaks above DAILY R1 and you suddenly find reversal in VXN.X extend itself, and all those upticks in $41 and $40 puts reverse themselves from this morning.

Note too the UP/DN tick volume for the QQQQ itself. Then think about how "bearish" this morning's internals were. The table has turned quickly intra-day hasn't it?

Linda Piazza : 11/10/2005 1:24:56 PM

TRAN turning lower again. OEX resistance holding. The advdec line has not really rolled lower, but its climb has reached an extreme level according to the one-minute chart.

Linda Piazza : 11/10/2005 1:22:14 PM

OEX resistance now at 564.32 is holding, at least for now. If that resistance continues to hold and the OEX continues to pull back, support on that chart is 563.16, 562.59, and then at 561.12. The advdec line is steadying near its afternoon high. The TRAN is finding resistance, so far, at 4010.06 on five-minute closes, probably the topmost level that could be considered appropriate for its right shoulder. It may even be a little too high, but the TRAN tends to overrun targets, so I give it a little more leeway than I would another index.

Jonathan Levinson : 11/10/2005 1:21:33 PM

Volume breadth is up to -1.25:1 on the NYSE and on the Nasdaq

Jeff Bailey : 11/10/2005 1:18:24 PM

VXN.X 15.82 -0.05% ... reversal going on here.

Check that QQQQ option chain!

Jonathan Levinson : 11/10/2005 1:15:48 PM

Mark, that spike coincided with the impressive results from the ten year note auction- foreign central banks stepped up to the plate in a huge way, taking down more than half of all the notes sold, a record. The move is resulting in a channel test on the Qs, usually the kind of spike I'd try shorting, but that's a really bullish development at the Treasury auction- who knows what other US denominated assets they're willing to bid on? Over 7B was just spent on those 10-yr notes.

Linda Piazza : 11/10/2005 1:15:04 PM

The advdec line might climb further, but the OEX is facing resistance now at 564.27, so I'm watching the advdec line to see if it does turn lower again, from lower than I thought it might once it passed up the lower resistance line that I had been watching. Nothing has changed, with these spikes up, but this one came as advdec line resistance was tested.

Jeff Bailey : 11/10/2005 1:14:55 PM

01:00 Internals found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 11/10/2005 1:11:38 PM

The advdec line closed that ten-minute period above the optimum level that bears wanted to see and might now continue climbing into the -1100 to -875 zone. It's at -1399 as I type.

Jonathan Levinson : 11/10/2005 1:09:31 PM

Headlines:

RATO SEES NEW REASONS TO DOUBT SUCCESS OF BUSH DEFICIT PLAN

$TNX TREASURY BID-COVER LOW BUT INDIRECT BID AT RECORD HIGH 55.6%

RATO: U.S. TAX INCREASES WILL BE NECESSARY

IMF'S RATO: U.S. DOESN'T GRASP RISKS OF GLOBAL IMBALANCES

RATO CALLS FOR BOLD ACTION TO REDUCE U.S. FISCAL DEFICIT

Linda Piazza : 11/10/2005 1:08:23 PM

Advdec line testing that resistance that probably needs to hold if bears are to hope the advdec line is going to turn down again. It's inching above it as market makers try a stop-running move on the OEX. That resistance is at about -1830 on 10-minute closes, with the advdec line currently above it, at -1609, but with only about half of that 10-minute period completed. The TRAN is also rising to test the top of the appropriate right-shoulder level for its H&S. If the TRAN rises too much more, it may invalidate the H&S. It may have already done so, but won't if the TRAN reverses soon. The TRAN is at 4009.66 as I type, next resistance at 40140-4022.

Jonathan Levinson : 11/10/2005 1:07:59 PM

Big volume surge driving QQQQ up to the 30 min channel top, printing a preliminary channel break: Link . The short cycle upphase has strengthened, however, and there's room for the channel top to advance as price holds near the highs.

Jane Fox : 11/10/2005 1:07:25 PM

TICKS +800. ARe we getting real tried of this yet.

Jeff Bailey : 11/10/2005 1:07:00 PM

01:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 11/10/2005 1:05:32 PM

QQQQ $40.29 +0.32% ... gulp!

Jeff Bailey : 11/10/2005 1:04:51 PM

SOX.X 459.17 +0.11% ... never did get a chance to look at option chain here. Bid coming in.

Jonathan Levinson : 11/10/2005 1:04:32 PM

Foreign central banks took 7.125B of the 13B 10-year note auction, a very strong showing. The notes sold for 4.578% with a 2.24 bid-to-cover. TNX is down 5.3 bps at 4.582% on the strong results.

Jeff Bailey : 11/10/2005 12:57:38 PM

BIG divergence between VIX.X -1.56% and VXN.X +2.33% ... where the "Pain" levels for SPX?

Jeff Bailey : 11/10/2005 12:55:55 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles found at this Link

Might look to sell WLP Nov. $75 Calls in coming sessions. Close out the $80 Calls yesterday at $0.05 to provide the opportunity with stock at good near-term support.

Also monitor YELL and LLTC based on recent option observations.

Jonathan Levinson : 11/10/2005 12:55:50 PM

Crude oil is bumping along at the lows, trading -1.3 at 57.625, 17.5 cents off the low after failing to regain 57.90 resistance. Link

Linda Piazza : 11/10/2005 12:55:11 PM

I said in my 12:45:28 post that I wouldn't be surprised to see the OEX rise again to test the 563.17-563.25 resistance again, and it did, rising to 563.04 a few minutes ago. I'm not sure that it's through testing resistance yet. The advdec line's resistance is holding, although tentatively as yet. The TRAN's right-shoulder level is holding, so far.

Jonathan Levinson : 11/10/2005 12:46:25 PM

Volume breadth is -1.6:1 on the NYSE, -2.3:1 on the Nasdaq.

Linda Piazza : 11/10/2005 12:46:11 PM

Advdec line resistance holding, but tentatively so far. It needs to turn lower soon for bears' sakes, probably within the next 20-30 minutes. The TRAN is still testing the right-shoulder level, and that test could go on a couple of hours if the right shoulder is to be symmetrical to the left. The TRAN doesn't always produce symmetrical shoulders, however. The TRAN is at 3999.16 as I type. As for the OEX, it's been climbing in a roughly rising wedge-ish shape off the low of the day, but it may just need to widen it into a tight rising channel. Resistance at about 563.17-563.25 right now and I wouldn't be surprised to see the OEX rise to retest that again.

Jane Fox : 11/10/2005 12:34:43 PM

VIX is falling as SPX is rising but both the AD line and AD volume are still below 0 so if trying a long position please be very careful.

Jonathan Levinson : 11/10/2005 12:34:41 PM

QQQQ clears the broken rising support line and 72 SMA resistance above 40.10, currently down 5 cents at 40.11: Link

Linda Piazza : 11/10/2005 12:31:20 PM

The advdec line is now testing that resistance that probably needs to hold if the advdec line and the OEX are going to turn lower again.

Linda Piazza : 11/10/2005 12:30:17 PM

TRAN rising into the appropriate right-shoulder level for its potential H&S. A line cloned from its neckline shows that the TRAN probably shouldn't rise much above 4000-4006 if that formation is going to be confirmed. The TRAN is now at 3998.34.

Jeff Bailey : 11/10/2005 12:28:17 PM

Schlumberger (SLB) $91.00 -2.16% ... Option chain sorted by November OI at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 11/10/2005 12:25:20 PM

Awaiting results of the 13B 10-year t-note auction in progress, expected at 1PM. Currently, ten year notes trade +13/64 at 108 3/32 off a low of 107 13/16, with TNX up to a 2.2 bp loss at 4.613%.

Linda Piazza : 11/10/2005 12:20:04 PM

The advdec line is rising into that resistance that probably needs to hold if bears are to get their wishes and the OEX is going to turn down again. This occurs as the OEX has risen to test the 15-minute 21-ema at 562.47 and also other resistance.

Jeff Bailey : 11/10/2005 12:15:57 PM

12:00 Internals found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 11/10/2005 12:09:11 PM

Volume breadth -1.7:1 on the NYSE, -2.3:1 on the Nasdaq.

Linda Piazza : 11/10/2005 12:07:20 PM

The advdec line climbs in a bear flag formation now. It's no longer finding resistance at the resistance now at -2200 and now tests next resistance at -2020. Since there's a risk of a rise from advdec line support and a risk of an OEX rise through the regression channel I posted earlier, bears would like to see resistance hold. If the advdec line is going to trend down into the close or almost into the close, it usually finds resistance at or below a trendline now at about -1800. The advdec line is now at -2044, QCharts value.

Jeff Bailey : 11/10/2005 12:03:43 PM

12:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 11/10/2005 12:00:15 PM

QQQQ bounces from a higher intraday low to approach the rising broken support line at 40.09, with the 72 SMA down to 40.10. That's a key level above which the intraday bias would return to potentially bullish. The short cycle upphase off the 39.94 is not the strongest ever, but it has yet to stall as the price continues its tentative climb. Link

Linda Piazza : 11/10/2005 11:55:10 AM

Here's the potential H&S I've been watching on the TRAN, complete with bearish divergence as the head was formed: Link That bearish divergence does not guarantee that the formation will be confirmed.

Tab Gilles : 11/10/2005 11:51:31 AM

$WTIC Tuesday 2:19PM post; I pointed out the daily chart and WTIC heading for it's 200-ma. Currently $WTIC @ $57.75. Link

DJ Oil & Gas Index ($DJUSEN) Link

Murphy Oil (MUR) Link

Jonathan Levinson : 11/10/2005 11:50:30 AM

Bonds hold their gains, TNX down 2.7 bps at 4.608% and IRX -1.5 bps at 3.862%. Price holds within the upper end of yesterday's tall candle, testing 4.6%, at the 127.2% fibonacci retracement off the June low: Link

Linda Piazza : 11/10/2005 11:48:08 AM

Is the OEX getting ready to break down out of this rising regression channel or bounce back up through it? The bearish price/RSI divergence has been going on for a long time now without the OEX breaking down, but it's showing some weakness today when compared to previous tests of the 15-minute 100/130-ema's since last October. Link So far, the advdec line hasn't been able to bounce far, but I'm still watching that, too.

Linda Piazza : 11/10/2005 11:42:35 AM

And now the OEX heads up through that one-minute Keltner range. See my 11:41:32 post.

Linda Piazza : 11/10/2005 11:41:32 AM

The OEX comes down again to test the bottom of the tight range in which it's been trading this morning. Since about an hour ago, I've dialed down to the one-minute Keltner chart to watch that range, from about 561.38 on one-minute closes on the bottom and 562.17 on one-minute closes on the top.

Jonathan Levinson : 11/10/2005 11:39:51 AM

QQQQ's short cycle oscillators have actually turned up, but are generating very poor price traction. This suggests a corrective bounce, either a bear flag or wedge off the day's lows, and a strong short cycle downphase to follow if the bulls can't do better with the current setup. A move below 39.90 would target lower channel support at 39.80, below which the decline would accelerate into a downside directional break. Link

Jeff Bailey : 11/10/2005 11:39:46 AM

Jane ... Good observation on internals. Looks very similar to Monday morning's internals Link

Good test to see if buyers (perhaps some shorts) come in here.

Tab Gilles : 11/10/2005 11:41:20 AM

Nasdaq100 ($NDX) The $NDX is looking Bullish on a weekly chart, the daily chart had a bullish upside gap and hit resistance at 1636. Currently it has piulled back. I would like to see a break over 1636- with an upsde price objective of 1820 (PnF) Link

Daily... Link Link Weekly... Link Link

Maintaining position in Profunds UOPIX entered 10/26 & 11/2.

Linda Piazza : 11/10/2005 11:33:48 AM

The advdec line's potential inverse H&S could not confirm. The formation is fizzling out, and that's not a good sign for bulls. I still think it possible that the advdec line could continue to rise into next resistance, and that's dangerous for OEX bears because any tepid rise in the advdec line has been either preceded or greeted by a strong rise in the OEX lately. However, for the time being, the advdec line is finding resistance at a line currently at -2085.82 with the advdec line at -2119.

Jeff Bailey : 11/10/2005 11:29:44 AM

11:13 Internals found at this Link

Yesterday's Internals found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 11/10/2005 11:29:41 AM

New low for crude oil at 57.60, -1.325 here.

Jane Fox : 11/10/2005 11:24:24 AM

I would just like to reiterate this is not the time to try any long positions. Link

Jonathan Levinson : 11/10/2005 11:24:01 AM

Volume is running only slightly heavier than yesterday's slow day, with 35.1M QQQQs traded so far, compared with 72.5M for the entire day yesterday and an average of 102.3M. There are more than twice as many Nasdaq shares declining as there are advancing, but it's not the clear directional break that traders are hoping to see, even with the breach of the past 3 day's lows this morning. So far, there's been no follow through, and not enough volume to confirm it as a key directional move.

Linda Piazza : 11/10/2005 11:18:30 AM

So far, the advdec line can't mount much of a bounce. It's attempting an inverse H&S at the bottom of its decline, however, so bears need to remain cautious. The OEX is so far finding resistance where bears would want, as it looks as if this 15-minute period will wind up with the OEX below the 15-minute 100-ema. Just did. That's at 561.90 with the 130-ema at 561.35. The OEX has strong potential support at confluence of its old rising regression channel's resistance and new and smaller channel's support, at about 560.90-561.00 on 15-minute closes. Below that are the important 240-minute 100/130-ema's at 558.80 and 559.86, respectively. Below that, the OEX is more bearish, but it's going to take either a strong thrust down or else a lot of chopping around to weaken that support.

Jonathan Levinson : 11/10/2005 11:15:50 AM

QQQQ fails at to regain broken rising support from below, falling back to 40.00. The short cycle indicators are on the cusp of a low, while the wavelet cycle tops out within it. Link

Jeff Bailey : 11/10/2005 11:15:48 AM

11:13 Market Watch found at this Link

Jane Fox : 11/10/2005 11:13:56 AM

Weekly commentary from Larry McMillan. The typically bullish period at the end of October was particularly strong this year. In fact, it was strong enough to push the major indices above resistance, thereby generating buy signals which were also accompanied by buy signals from sentiment and breadth indicators.

Now that $SPX is above the 1205-1210 area, it should be able to attempt an assault on the yearly highs near 1240. There is plenty of apparent resistance all over the $SPX chart, but the trend is now towards higher prices, and we expect that trend to remain in effect -- unless the 1205-1210 support area (yes, it's now support) is violated on the downside.

Equity-only put-call ratios turned bullish and remain strongly bullish. This is an important intermediate-term technical indicator perhaps the most important one. Not only have these buy signals occurred, but they arose at high levels on their charts (see the graphs at the top of the page). This means they were emanating from a rather deeply oversold condition -- a fact which usually means that the buy signals are excellent ones. With these buy signals in effect, we can cut the other indicators some 'slack,' if they waver at times.

Breadth (advances minus declines) was quite bullish and expansive as the initial breakout occurred. However, as the market has temporized over the past few days, breadth has deteriorated somewhat. Volatility ($VIX) has been supportive of the bullish case, as it fell to new lows for this move (albeit somewhat belatedly). As long as $VIX remains below 13.50 or 14.00, it is not rising -- and that's all the bulls need to count this indicator in their column.

In summary, sentiment indicators are bullish (especially the put-call ratios) while the market indicators (especially breadth) are less so. This adds up to a bullish posture as far as we're concerned, as long as $SPX remains above 1205

Jeff Bailey : 11/10/2005 11:12:05 AM

Quigley Corp. (QGLY) $14.58 +8.32% ... this makes me sick to my stomach. Will note here that stock has retraced 61.8% of its all-time high to all-time low.

As noted, I purchased shares in recent weeks in my personal account ONLY AS A SEASONAL PLAY on the cold season and dumped shares just below $10. Stock has suddendly become a "Bird Flu" play. EXTREME CAUTION advised here.

Jeff Bailey : 11/10/2005 11:08:06 AM

Weekly EIA Crude Oil, Gasoline, Distillate, Nat. Gas Inventory Table at this Link ... Excellent time to benchmark where things were this time last year, as it is right now that the "winter heating season" begins, especially for Nat. Gas, where inventories are still down 2.9% vs. year ago. This is why many Nat. Gas. commodity, and stock traders are paying some attention to weather conditions.

I'm seeing some "nat gas" stocks/equities being thrown out like trash today, and there may be some good opportunity for call buyers. I've got to look at some charts, but looking for those that are nearing a bearish vertical count or longer-term support level.

Linda Piazza : 11/10/2005 11:07:56 AM

The TRAN is attempting a bounce now. So far, it's a tepid one, but I'm not so sure it's through bouncing. Support is firming on the five-minute chart. Resistance is, too, so that the TRAN could just chop around between 3988 and 4003 for a while, producing a right shoulder to go with the left shoulder.

Jonathan Levinson : 11/10/2005 11:07:04 AM

Crude oil -.975 here at 57.95, off a low of 57.675.

Linda Piazza : 11/10/2005 11:04:52 AM

I'm still unfortunately having connectivity issues, so still cannot be calling plays today. The advdec line is bouncing, an expected event, but bears would like to see it stay below -1650 to -1320 on any bounces, and then they'd like to see it roll down again, strongly. They'd like to see the OEX find resistance at 562.30-562.75 and turn down strongly from there. In fact, they'd like to see it find resistance on 15-minute closes at the 15-minute 100-ema, currently at 561.92. The OEX is just above that now, with many minutes left in the 15-minute period.

The OEX has established a rising regression channel since early November, on top of its previous one, and there's the chance that the OEX will now bounce up through that channel again. Those who might have ventured bullish entries as the advdec line was testing support of course want to see the advdec line above the levels listed above. Currently, the advdec line is at -2126.

Jonathan Levinson : 11/10/2005 11:03:33 AM

Volume breadth is up to -1.8:1 on the NYSE, -2.05:1 on the Nasdaq.

Jonathan Levinson : 11/10/2005 11:00:28 AM

QQQQ bounces back to resistance at yesterday's lows, just below the broken support line connecting the lows. The short cycle indicators have yet to turn up- so far it's just a wavelet bounce off the lows (middle oscillator pane): Link A break above the 72 SMA at 40.14 should be sufficient to kick off a new short cycle upphase and stall the ongoing 30 min channel downphase.

Linda Piazza : 11/10/2005 10:51:50 AM

And here's the bounce I've been expecting, coming along a little later than I expected it. That in itself doesn't say good things about the bounce's sustainability, but I've been surprised other times lately.

Linda Piazza : 11/10/2005 10:49:20 AM

The TRAN has dropped below the support zone that I thought might bounce it, all the way to next support near its current 3988.79 level. If it doesn't bounce soon, it's dismissing the right-shoulder bounce entirely in its possible H&S on its five-minute chart. The TRAN has been known to do that before, but I'm not convinced just yet that it won't attempt the right-shoulder bounce. It's gained about a point as I typed.

Jane Fox : 11/10/2005 10:46:22 AM

TICKS -800 again

Linda Piazza : 11/10/2005 10:49:57 AM

The OEX is also at the daily 100-ema, at 561.27, just below it but still within "testing" range.

Jonathan Levinson : 11/10/2005 10:44:41 AM

Stepping away for 5 minutes.

Linda Piazza : 11/10/2005 10:44:52 AM

The advdec line has reached a five-minute-chart RSI level from which it usually bounces, and it's created bullish divergence on that chart, too. It has been trying to bounce, with the bounce so far a tepid one, which is good for bearish traders. The OEX hasn't done much of anything while the advdec line has tried to bounce. The advdec line rolls down a bit again as I type, to test the day's low, but I think it may just be widening its bear-flag climb. That's a possibility at least, and now we may have a period of time when it tries to grind its way higher and OEX traders sit, waiting to see what it will do to the OEX as it climbs. So far, this all fits with the need for the OEX to test the important 15-minute 100/130-ema's now that it's hit them again. It's bounced from these averages since late October, and I wouldn't expect it to just fall straight though, even if it's going to eventually do so. It's doing a fairly good approximation of that as I type, though. Smile.

Jeff Bailey : 11/10/2005 10:41:57 AM

EIA's Weekly Nat. Gas Storage regional table Link

Jeff Bailey : 11/10/2005 10:39:24 AM

December Crude Oil (cl05z) alert $57.60 -1.91% (30-min. delayed) ... achieved its head/shoulder top objective.

Linda Piazza : 11/10/2005 10:35:53 AM

Deeper drop in the TRAN, below that Keltner support that it was climbing yesterday. It's been testing support near 4000, however, with that support roughly from 3993-3997. I wouldn't be surprised to see the TRAN bounce from that support, up to about 4010-4018, before we know whether it's through rising or not. TRAN low of the day at 3997.67, and it's currently at 4003.12.

Jeff Bailey : 11/10/2005 10:35:35 AM

Swing trade short alert ... sell short shares of Schlumberger (SLB) $91.31 -1.82% here, stop $93.50, target $87.80

Jonathan Levinson : 11/10/2005 10:33:17 AM

QQQQ is bouncing from a low of 39.94, not yet testing the broken rising trendline from Tuesday at 40.07: Link

Jonathan Levinson : 11/10/2005 10:31:50 AM

Natgas is bouncing from a low of 11.07, currently -.505 at 11.165.

Jonathan Levinson : 11/10/2005 10:31:18 AM

From the EIA website Link :

Working gas in storage was 3,229 Bcf as of Friday, November 4, 2005, according to EIA estimates. This represents a net increase of 61 Bcf from the previous week. Stocks were 93 Bcf less than last year at this time and 123 Bcf above the 5-year average of 3,106 Bcf. In the East Region, stocks were 56 Bcf above the 5-year average following net injections of 36 Bcf. Stocks in the Producing Region were 15 Bcf above the 5-year average of 857 Bcf after a net injection of 22 Bcf. Stocks in the West Region were 52 Bcf above the 5-year average after a net addition of 3 Bcf. At 3,229 Bcf, total working gas is within the 5-year historical range.

Linda Piazza : 11/10/2005 10:29:36 AM

Jeff, I just wish someone would keep my broadband connected today. I'm not so worried about the heat I'm taking.

Jonathan Levinson : 11/10/2005 10:27:52 AM

The Fed announced a 9B 6-day repo, for a net add of 500M for the day.

Linda Piazza : 11/10/2005 10:28:54 AM

I think there's likely to be an OEX bounce attempt soon, but the OEX may find resistance near 561.90-562.33 if it bounces. That's what bears hope to see, anyway. Determine now if you want to risk a rise to test that level.

Jeff Bailey : 11/10/2005 10:24:28 AM

Linda may have to turn on the air conditioning today.

Jeff Bailey : 11/10/2005 10:23:17 AM

Weekly Natural Gas inventories due out in about 10 minutes. Looks like warm temperatures today Link

Jonathan Levinson : 11/10/2005 10:22:26 AM

Volume breadth is down to -2:1 on the NYSE, -2.1:1 on the Nasdaq.

Linda Piazza : 11/10/2005 10:20:48 AM

The advdec line has broken down below support, now in breakout mode on the 15-minute chart. Next support at -2350, and a bounce attempt should be expected from somewhere near that level, if not from the current -2170 level. The advdec line could be setting up a down-all-day kind of day, as I noted earlier, but that depends each time on how the advdec line behaves on bounce attempts.

Shoulda, woulda, coulda. When the TRAN printed a doji on its ten-minute chart and then started down the next ten-minute period, I actually printed up a bearish entry, but yesterday's experience combined with my connectivity issues kept me on the sidelines. If I had posted that (OEX at 563.11 at the time), I'd be telling you again that this was a good place to consider partial or full profits, depending on your trading style, and so that's what I'm telling you bears now.

Jonathan Levinson : 11/10/2005 10:19:50 AM

Bonds are just off their highs, TNX down 2.4 bps at 4.611% and IRX down 1.2 bps at 3.865%.

Jeff Bailey : 11/10/2005 10:19:26 AM

Energy under pressure ... OIX -3.14%, OSX.X -3.04%, XNG.X -2.83%

Jane Fox : 11/10/2005 10:18:44 AM

TICKS reached a low of -1040

Jeff Bailey : 11/10/2005 10:17:53 AM

Sell Program Premium ... DIA $105.38, SPX 1,215.50, QQQQ $39.98

Jeff Bailey : 11/10/2005 10:16:25 AM

10:00 Internals found at this Link

Jane Fox : 11/10/2005 10:15:45 AM

TICKS -800

Linda Piazza : 11/10/2005 10:14:50 AM

The TRAN has been dropping nicely from its 4038.26 high. It's now dropped into the support that mostly held it yesterday, though, at 4010.87 on 15-minute closes. The TRAN would have to drop significantly below that on 15-minute closes to change its tenor. I think it's going to sometime or other, and very likely today, either from the current high or from a high that more closely approaches or touches upper Keltner resistance at 4065.67 on the daily chart. I'm not sure it's happened yet, but the TRAN is currently at 4010.31.

Jonathan Levinson : 11/10/2005 10:14:38 AM

With this relatively small move, QQQQ has taken out the last 3 days' lows and violated rising support connecting those lows: Link

Jane Fox : 11/10/2005 10:13:59 AM

Certainly hope no one will try to go long here. Link

Jonathan Levinson : 11/10/2005 10:11:31 AM

QQQQQ tests 30/60 min channel support at 39.98 here as the short cycle indicators roll over from a weak bounce attempt: Link

Linda Piazza : 11/10/2005 10:11:23 AM

SOX dropping back to test the 50-sma. It's just above it now. Important test.

Linda Piazza : 11/10/2005 10:09:02 AM

Advdec line approaching next support, bears, the support I said that you wanted to see it break through to the bottom. That support is now at about -1200 with the advdec line now at -1185, QCharts value. Some bullish divergences are beginning to show up on the three- and five-minute charts, so a bounce attempt or steadying attempt might be expected, at least.

Jane Fox : 11/10/2005 10:05:38 AM

AD volume and AD line are both making new daily lows.

Jeff Bailey : 11/10/2005 10:02:30 AM

10:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 11/10/2005 10:00:58 AM

Jonathan mentioned that the post-Consumer-sentiment spike had been reversed, and that's your signal that sellers are waiting, producing those long upper shadows on the candles. We know from the rock-solid way that 559.50-560.40 support has been treated on the OEX that buyers have been waiting there, too. Has buyers absorbed all the supply they want or are there still buyers who want more? We may see this morning.

Jonathan Levinson : 11/10/2005 10:00:35 AM

New session low for crude oil at 58.175 here, -.75. Natgas is down .155 at 11.515, 5.5 cents off the low.

Linda Piazza : 11/10/2005 9:58:44 AM

The OEX's Keltner picture gives no clues this morning. The OEX is between fairly well matched support and resistance, in the middle of the channel that's been capturing most movements. That channel currently spans from 560.52-565.39. Bulls tried to break the OEX out of that channel to the upside yesterday. Will bears try to the downside today?

Linda Piazza : 11/10/2005 9:57:07 AM

Advdec line resistance holding, with the advdec line again dropping into support. Advdec line is showing that the move is overdone to the downside on some charts, so it's a time to follow any bearish trades down with your stops. It could be a down-all-day type day, but that depends on how this support from the current -718 to -1134 is treated. Bears want to see a breakout below that support or at least a sideways-down movement along it.

Jonathan Levinson : 11/10/2005 9:57:03 AM

QQQQ continues to rattle within yesterday's afternoon range, no clear indications on any of the intraday cycles. The 30 min channel drifts sideways with the 60 min trying to tick up: Link

Jonathan Levinson : 11/10/2005 9:53:59 AM

Volume breadth is neutral-negative, -1.07:1 on the NYSE, -1.4:1 on the Nasdaq.

Linda Piazza : 11/10/2005 9:50:00 AM

Advdec line at -93 QCharts level, resistance up to about +200 looking strong. If we were trading in a vacuum, without that TRAN action, this would look like a possible setup for a bounce-and-rollover bearish entry.

Linda Piazza : 11/10/2005 9:47:49 AM

The advdec line is just not supporting this climb, but the advdec line has hit support, which was the reason behind my suggestion earlier that the OEX was likely to rise to 563-563.42 at least. Now the advdec line is trying to bounce from that support, up to test resistance, and we're watching to see if the resistance holds.

Jeff Bailey : 11/10/2005 9:47:36 AM

Buy Program Premium ... DIA $105.85, SPX 1,222.49, QQQQ $40.25.

Jonathan Levinson : 11/10/2005 9:47:27 AM

Headline:

UMICH NOV. CONSUMER SENTIMENT INDEX 79.9 VS. 74.2 OCT

Jonathan Levinson : 11/10/2005 9:47:02 AM

QQQQ clears 72 SMA resistance, currently up 8 cents to 40.24: Link

Jonathan Levinson : 11/10/2005 9:46:24 AM

Awaiting Michigan Sentiment, due sometime between now and 9:55.

Linda Piazza : 11/10/2005 9:45:12 AM

Daily Keltner resistance is at 4065.07 on the TRAN, and the TRAN does sometimes adhere to the support and resistance levels on that chart. TRAN at 4031.53, and, at this rate, it's not going to take long to get to that target and resistance level.

Linda Piazza : 11/10/2005 9:43:22 AM

This morning's setup on the advdec line and the OEX looks as if a bounce-and-rollover bearish entry might be a possibility, but I'd be hesitant about suggesting such a thing with the $TRAN still driving higher, so I might be on the sidelines even if my connectivity issues hadn't sidelined me. Here's an old TRAN chart that I was posting a lot late last year. Back then, I thought the bearish divergence on the weekly chart at the last swing high suggested that the TRAN would likely drop to the mid-level support, but it didn't do that. Link I didn't think it likely that the TRAN would touch the top of the envelope again before testing the mid-line support, but now I wonder.

Jane Fox : 11/10/2005 9:41:49 AM

AD line is +582 and AD volume is below 0 so the bears have the reins... at least for now.

Jonathan Levinson : 11/10/2005 9:50:01 AM

The Fed has 17.5B in various repos expiring this morning, and has already announced a 9B 13-day repo to replace the 4B 14-day repo expiring. That leaves 8.5B with which to deal at the short term announcement just before 10AM.

Linda Piazza : 11/10/2005 9:38:36 AM

Advdec line still headed down. The OEX bounced up to 562.67, but not yet to the 563-563.42 level that it looked as if it might hit. Bouncing again now, though.

Jonathan Levinson : 11/10/2005 9:37:30 AM

QQQQ holds at the lower end of its premarket range, below 72 SMA resistance at 40.21: Link

Jeff Bailey : 11/10/2005 9:37:26 AM

Bullish swing trade stop alert ... for the 1/2 position in the Chicago Board of Trade (BOT) $110.00 -1.93%

Linda Piazza : 11/10/2005 9:35:44 AM

TRAN shot higher this morning. It's at 4015.30.

Linda Piazza : 11/10/2005 9:35:04 AM

Advdec line dropping through support, a bearish signal, but the OEX is dropping to support. I'm still having connectivity issues, so I'm on the sidelines for now, but bears should prepare for a possible OEX bounce, perhaps up to 563-563.42 at least. Right now, it just looks like a bounce up to test resistance, but we just never know these days.

Jonathan Levinson : 11/10/2005 9:34:28 AM

Volume breadth is -1.3:1 on the NYSE, -1.25:1 on the Nasdaq at the open.

Linda Piazza : 11/10/2005 9:32:14 AM

Advdec line dropping through support.

Linda Piazza : 11/10/2005 9:31:15 AM

Advdec line opens at support. Watching early action to see if it falls through support or climbs. OEX opens just above the 15-minute 100/130-ema's at 562.59 and 562.21, respectively.

Linda Piazza : 11/10/2005 9:29:31 AM

Strange that Keene and I are both dealing with connectivity issues today.

Jonathan Levinson : 11/10/2005 9:28:31 AM

Session low for crude oil here, -.70 at 58.225. Gold is up 2.70 at 470.20, 40 cents off the high.

Linda Piazza : 11/10/2005 9:20:22 AM

OEX Trade Recap
I'm having difficulties maintaining my broadband connection, since late yesterday. I'm not certain whether the fault lies with my equipment or with the broadband service, but my checking among neighbors shows me that it's likely my broadband service and not my equipment. Someone two blocks away is having the same difficulty. If it doesn't clear up this morning, I'm not going to be calling any trades.

If I do, there's going to be a change in the way the trades are set up. Although I dispute some of the assertions made yesterday by the anonymous reader, I agree with others. I have always maintained that it was going to be difficult to present trades that follow my methodology on this Market Monitor and set stops according to the OEX value. Tom Williams of Master the Markets says that it's dangerous to trade the markets using only price and derivatives of price (such as stochastics, etc.) and that you need another variable. Volume provides that other variable.

I happen to agree, and my trades are based more on volume patterns than on the actual OEX price. They're based on support and resistance in the advdec line based on Keltner channel levels. However, I'm cognizant that many of you do not follow or understand Keltner channels or have access to quotes on the advdec line even if you do, and that no brokerage that I know of allows conditional stops on options based on, say, "advdec at or above 1911." So, in an effort to bring these trades to the Market Monitor, I've been trying to find a legitimate OEX-based stop. Yesterday morning, that stop was based on a move back above the triangle in which the OEX had been trading, for example.

Yet, sometimes those stops are violated while the trade still appears viable according to my methodology. The supposed reader yesterday questioned my accountability, but those who read my initial long-winded posts about my methodology are well-acquainted with these concerns, voiced right from the beginning. They're not something I'm hiding behind now, but are worries that I voiced then, both to you and to the management.

So, in order to merge my methodology with Market Monitor realities, I'm going to post entries and exits, explaining why as I always do, as long as there's enough time to provide an explanation. I always give readers plenty of opportunities to consider an exit that's not an official one, explaining that, too, and I'll continue doing that, but as always, the trade recap information you see posted at the end of the day is the legitimate entry and exit, not what some people could have made.

What I'm not going to do is give a stop. You're going to need to set an account-appropriate and trading-style-appropriate stop. That can be a certain number of points away from the entry; a decay of, say 1/3 in your options price; above or below known support or resistance, depending on whether it's a bearish or bullish play, or any combination of those. That's the only way I see this working. I'll still be accountable for when we entered and when we exited, but my comments will be clearer, and you can decide if you want to follow all the way or be willing to risk the heat when the play starts to go wrong.

At the time I first began posting trades, I offered many cautions and I'm going to restate them here. First, you have to choose an option with a high delta, preferably around 0.70 (or -0.70 for a put), which means that it's going to be 5-7 points in the money. Some of the trades move only a little, and so you need to see movement in your option price that pretty well matches the OEX's movement if you're going to be able to squeeze out any profit on your trade by the time you pay commission and get between the bid and the ask. I usually try to pay about 70% of the spread when I'm buying and collect 30% when I'm selling that option, as a rough guide. Of course, some trades are more profitable, but generally, it's a system that relies on lots of small profits.

A second caution, voiced before and reiterated here, is that these trades sometimes go the wrong direction, far in the wrong direction, before they go right. If you've got a high-delta option, that means you're going to lose a lot, hopefully an unrealized loss, before the trade follows through and become profitable. I can handle this in my own trading because I govern the number of positions I take and don't take on too much risk, but I don't know if you're doing that out there in cyberland or not. If a loss must be taken, they're usually large. It's a backwards system, not the usual "keep the losses small and let the winners run" system. I always said it was, and it is, but it works, or did. My efforts to get these things posted has severely cut down into the number of trades I take, limiting my ability to get in and out, and I'm missing exits sometimes on the trades I'm in. I can no more set those conditional "stop at advdec line at 1911" than you can and I'm sacrificing my own account sometimes to get information posted for you.

I said from the very beginning, in my intense effort to be accountable and upfront, that these were my concerns and that traders should not automatically take my trades, but should paper trade them for a while to see if they fit traders' styles. They're not for everyone.

Go back and read my 12:28:27 post on 10/20 and my 8:55:29 am post on 10/21 for a complete listing of my concerns. Do some thinking about what kind of stops you want to place on your own trades. Paper trade for a while. Take the opposite trade as I do if you feel that's most useful. Shout at the screen if that helps with the anxiety of the day. Smile. Use this information however it best suits you and your trading style.

Jonathan Levinson : 11/10/2005 9:05:45 AM

Might have been this:

SANTA CLARA, Calif., Nov 10, 2005 (BUSINESS WIRE) -- Intel Corporation today announced that its board of directors has approved a 25 percent increase in the quarterly cash dividend to 10 cents per share beginning with the dividend that will be declared in the first quarter of 2006. The Intel board also authorized the repurchase of up to $25 billion in shares of common stock under the company's ongoing stock repurchase program.

Link

Jonathan Levinson : 11/10/2005 9:03:09 AM

Sudden session highs, QQQQQ to 40.27. Searching for news.

Jane Fox : 11/10/2005 8:55:51 AM

And another mess from GM. Link

Jonathan Levinson : 11/10/2005 8:52:12 AM

As well, Mark, a new mess from Fannie: Link

Jonathan Levinson : 11/10/2005 8:49:04 AM

The current weakness for QQQQ has drilled the short cycle oscillators down to near oversold levels with no sign of a bounce yet. This occurs within a fresh 30 min cycle rollover, but this wider channel is barely cycling anymore, having coiled itself into a wedge as the price continues to drift in its very narrow range. The 60 min cycle is giving no additional clues, stalled in a weak downphase. All of this occurs within the overbought daily cycle, which continues to suggest an impending but not-yet-commencing downphase. QQQQ remains in suspended animation, drifting sideways-up.

Linda Piazza : 11/10/2005 8:38:18 AM

Yesterday, what didn't the OEX do? I'd thought earlier in the week that it might need to tag the 200-sma and it didn't do it then, but it did yesterday. It broke above it but then was hit hard and closed the day in the bottom half of the day's range. That's bearish, but try trading any of these bearish setups. The support at the daily 200-sma at 561.39 is rock-solid and has held for the last four trading days. The OEX is doing its thing, moving big and then consolidating. It's being accumulated at the bottom of the range, and very obviously distributed at the top. Sooner or later, supply is going to run out at the top and it will rise or supply is going to swamp willing buyers at the bottom and it's going to drop. Right now, it's been in fairly close balance and that's why there's consolidation. The OEX usually consolidates in 4 to 6-point ranges, and I see it's now widened that range to almost four points.

Chop. That's what we've got again. I keep seeing bearish setups day after day, and yet none deliver. It's not just that I don't trade bullish setups. I do and I have, but that's unfortunately not what's setting up right now. I was absolutely, 100% ready to go long yesterday morning if the advdec line had set up that way, but it didn't. My big fault lately is in not taking profits quickly because my study of longer-term charts keeps showing that resistance is holding, and the fault is not in taking the bearish trades when offered. And that resistance does hold.

While punching up to the 200-sma, the OEX also punched above the descending trendline off the September 9 high and the rising trendline I've been watching, but ended up back below both. For now, trading the range appears to be the only trade around . . . until the range breaks. We'll see what sets up this morning.

Jonathan Levinson : 11/10/2005 8:35:19 AM

A new high printed for gold at 469.40, equities dipped slightly, but all have returned to pre-data levels, almost no net change. Ten year note yields are down .2 bps to 4.633%, 13-week rates down 1.7 bps to 3.86%.

Jonathan Levinson : 11/10/2005 8:31:55 AM

Headlines:

U.S. SEPT. TRADE GAP WIDENS 11.4% TO RECORD $66.1BLN

U.S. SEPT. TRADE GAP WELL ABOVE CONSENSUS OF $61.5 BLN

U.S. SEPT. EXPORTS DECLINE BY LARGEST AMOUNT SINCE 9/11

U.S. AUG. TRADE GAP REV $59.3 BLN VS $59.0 PREV EST

U.S. SEPT. TRADE GAP WITH CHINA RECORD $20.1 BLN

Jonathan Levinson : 11/10/2005 8:31:03 AM

Headlines:

U.S. OCT IMPORT PRICES EXCLUDING PETROLEUM UP 0.8%

U.S. OCT. EXPORT PRICES UP 0.6%

U.S. OCT. EXPORT PRICES EX-AGRICULTURE UP 0.6%

U.S. OCT. IMPORT PRICES EX-FUELS UP 0.3%

U.S. WEEKLY CONTINUING JOBLESS CLAIMS UP 23,000 TO 2.82MLN

CUMULATIVE NEW CLAIMS FROM HURRICANES KATRINA, RITA: 535,000

U.S. OCT. IMPORTED CAPITAL GOODS PRICES FALL 0.3%

U.S. OCT. IMPORTED CHINESE GOODS PRICES FALL 0.1%

Jonathan Levinson : 11/10/2005 8:20:55 AM

Ten year note yields are flat at the cash open, quoted +.2 bps at 4.637%. NQ and YM are making new session lows as I type at 1632.5 and 10555.

Jonathan Levinson : 11/10/2005 7:23:43 AM

Equities are mixed, ES trading 1224, NQ 1635.5, YM 10569 and QQQQ flat at 40.16. Gold is up 1.3 to a 468.8 session high, ten year notes are up 1/64 to 107 29/32, crude oil is down .425 to 58.50 and natgas is down .07 to 11.60

We await the 8:30 releases of export prices ex-ag and import prices ex-oil, prior +1.1% and +1.2% respectively, the trade balance, est. -61.3B, and initial claims, est. 320K. At 9:45, it's Michigan Sentiment, est. 76 and at 2PM, the Treasury Budget for Oct., est. -50B.

Linda Piazza : 11/10/2005 6:18:44 AM

Good morning. The Nikkei squeaked through with a positive close after trading in negative territory much of the day. Other Asian markets were mixed. European markets are positive, but the FTSE 100 barely holds onto positive levels as I type, immersed in political troubles due to the defeat of a measure wanted by the prime minister and ahead of a rate decision. As of 6:13 EST, gold was higher by $0.30 to $467.80, and crude, lower by $0.42 to $58.51. At that time, our futures were modestly lower, just below fair value. More details about Asian and European markets follows in succeeding paragraphs.

Last night, the Nikkei punched higher during the morning session, but had dropped below the flat-line level by the close of that morning session. After dipping again to that 13,980 support level, it bounced during the last hour of trading, closing higher by 8.68 points or 0.06%, at 14,080.88. Goldman Sachs had downgraded insurers to a neutral rating after the previous day's comments that banks had much of the positive news already priced in, and insurer Millea Holdings Inc. lead declines. Banks continued the previous day's losses. Strong earnings reports form Tokyo Electron and also from Taiwan Semiconductor in Taiwan helped computer-related stocks gain in early trading. Articles did not mention any Cisco effect, either positive or negative.

A key economic number was released during the day. Septembers core machinery orders disappointed, falling 10.0% month over month. A decline had been expected, but only of 7.0%. Year over year, they've risen to 4.8%, but that number disappoints, too, as orders had been forecast to rise 8.3% year over year. The number would still likely result in a Q3 growth of 2.1%, one source estimated, with that source also pointing out that August's growth had been strong.

Other Asian markets were mixed. The Taiwan Weighted gained 0.29%, and South Korea's Kospi rose 0.56%. Singapore's Straits Times declined 0.53%, but Hong Kong's Hang Seng climbed 0.25%. China's Shanghai Composite dropped 1.79%.

European markets are modestly higher, with banks propping up the FTSE 100 ahead of a rate decision in the U.K. In France, September's industrial production rose 0.2% month over month over an upwardly revised August number, and October's CPI inflation was milder than expected. That number declined 0.1% month over month, with the lower crude prices in the month credited with the drop.

Insurance stocks gained after earnings reports by ING group and Aegon. Germany's Siemens rose after reporting strong sales but profit below expectations. U.K. telecom BT Group fell after its earnings report. Much talk on CBNC Europe this morning centers on the possibility of an announcement today concerning a possible bid by E.ON for the U.K.'s Scottish Power.

As of 6:09 EST, the FTSE 100 was higher by 0.30 points or 0.01%, at 5,440.10. The CAC 40 was higher by 10.11 points or 0.23%, at 4,490.34. The DAX was higher by 16.39 points or 0.33%, at 5,027.77.

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