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Jeff Bailey : 11/14/2005 11:22:16 PM

Program Trading Levels for Tuesday ... HL Camp & Company has their computers set for program buying at $+3.60 and set for program selling at $+1.68.

OI Technical Staff : 11/14/2005 10:00:01 PM

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Jeff Bailey : 11/14/2005 5:57:28 PM

Headline ... EIA saying retail gasoline average price fell $0.08 per gallon in latest week to $2.296.

EIA saying prices fell in all regions with Rocky Mountains falling the most at $-0.117 a gallon to $2.347.

Average price for retail gasoline still $0.327 per gallon above year-ago levels.

Other regions ... East Coast -10.1 cents at $2.295, Midwest -5.3 cents at $2.178, Gulf Coast -8.7 cents at $2.247, West Coast -7.6 cents at $2.547.

December Unleaded Gas futures (hu05z) settled up 1.6 cents, or 0.75% at $1.4961 per gallon in Monday's trade.

Jeff Bailey : 11/14/2005 5:23:16 PM

Headline ... DJ - EIA saying September Crude Oil imports plunged 13% vs. August at 8.98 million b/d. Off 7.4% from a year ago and lowest for any month since February 2003.

Canada, which sends much of its crude oil exports to the into the northern U.S. through pipelines, was the top crude oil supplier in the month. U.S. imports of Canadian crude rose 4.3% in September from August, to 1.679 million b/d, the highest level since June, but down slightly from 1.686 million b/d a year ago.

But because of the massive disruption to U.S. Gulf operations, the flow from other key suppliers was severely cut.

Imports from Saudi Arabia, the world's largest oil producer and exporter, were 1.252 million b/d, down 13.3% from August and were at the lowest monthly level since April 2004.

The crude flow from Saudi Arabia was 20% below the year-earlier level of 1.567 million b/d.

Jeff Bailey : 11/14/2005 5:18:47 PM

Headline ... DJ - US Bank Business Loads down $700 million in latest week.

The Federal Reserve saying large U.S. banks' commercial and industrial loan activity fell by $700 million to $1.03 trillion in the week ended November 2, 2005.

Jumbo certificates of deposit (Jumbo CDs) at the 34 large banks in the survey rose $6.5 billion to $1.415 trillion in the latest week after rising $4.7 billion the previous week. Revolving home equity loans fell $1.2 billion to $436.3 billion after rising $600 million the previous week.

Jeff Bailey : 11/14/2005 5:14:20 PM

Agilent (A) $32.90 -0.09% ... sharply higher at $34.60 after the test-and-measure equipment maker said Q4 net profit fell 65% to $26 million, or $0.05 a share from $74 million, or $0.15 per share in year-ago quarter. Excluding one-time items, including the sale of its semiconductor business, the company reported an adjusted profit of $193 million, or $0.38 per share compared to $153 million, or $0.30 per share last year.

Sales rose 5% to $1.41 billion while orders surged 26% to $1.5 billion.

Analysts were projecting earnings of $0.37 a share on revenue of $1.85 billion.

Agilent said that it will buy back up to $2.7 billion in its shares, roughly 14.2% of its outstanding stock, in a modified "Dutch auction."

It plans to buy 73 million shares between $32-$37. The tender offer is expected to begin tomorrow (Tuesday) and expire on December 13, unless extended.

Jeff Bailey : 11/14/2005 5:07:44 PM

American Intl. Group (AIG) $67.50 +0.38% ... Dow component edging higher at $67.74 after filing 10-Q for period ending September 30, 2005 with SEC.

Q3 net income was $1.72 billion, or $0.65 per diluted share vs. $2.69 billion, or $1.02 per diluted share in year ago quarter. Results include after tax net catastrophe related losses of $1.57 billion, or $0.60 per diluted share in Q3 2005 compared to $512 million, or $0.19 per diluted share last year.

Net income for first 9 months of 2005 stands at $10.02 billion or $3.82 per diluted share, compared to $8.29 billion, or $3.14 per diluted share for first 9 months of 2004. These results include after tax net catastrophe related losses per duluted share in 2005 and 2004 of $0.60 and $0.19, repectively.

Jeff Bailey : 11/14/2005 4:42:19 PM

Closing U.S. Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 11/14/2005 4:26:15 PM

Closing Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 11/14/2005 4:06:35 PM

Buy Program Premium ... DIA $107.18, SPY $123.75

Jeff Bailey : 11/14/2005 3:56:20 PM

Chicago Board of Trade (BOT) $118.45 +8.79% alert Link ... surging now.

Trade at $122 a triple top buy signal. Possible short squeeze.

Jeff Bailey : 11/14/2005 3:54:36 PM

Canada ... Proposed tax measure include:

- an immediate C$500 increase to the amount of income all Canadians can earn without paying federal income tax, effective Jan. 1, 2005; - a reduction of the lowest personal income tax rate to 15% from 16%, effective Jan. 1, 2005;

- an increase in the income level at which the top tax rate begins to apply, starting in 2010;

- confirming the general corporate income tax rate reductions and the elimination of the corporate surtax for all corporations proposed in the government's last budget in February;

- eliminating the federal capital tax as of 2006, two years ahead of schedule.

Linda Piazza : 11/14/2005 3:53:44 PM

I'm going out on a limb to post anything about the OEX's daily candle before the end of the day, but the current candle is a spinning top at the top of a strong climb. Although the OX often follows such potential reversal signals with either another potential reversal signal such as a doji or with an actual decline, it didn't do so the day following the candle produced on 11/04, a potential reversal signal, so we can't assume it will do so. However, I'd give strong consideration to either a possible doji day or an actual pullback tomorrow. Remember when planning that a doji day can begin with a climb which is then reversed, or can begin with a decline that is then reversed, with prices ending up back at or near the open.

Jeff Bailey : 11/14/2005 4:46:41 PM

Canada ... Govt. sees fiscal 2005-06 budget surplus of C$1.6 billion.

Proposes personal, corporate tax relief

Forecasting GDP growth of 2.8% in 2005, 2.9% in 2006.

Linda Piazza : 11/14/2005 3:44:04 PM

Advdec line dropping away from that descending trendline in place for the last couple of hours, and the OEX drops away from the descending trendline off the day's high. You have to be careful about these stop-running moves. We still don't know the outcome for the day and whether the OEX will confirm that H&S on its 15-minute chart, but we know that someone tried to run it up and sellers were waiting.

Linda Piazza : 11/14/2005 3:41:16 PM

And here's the advdec line back to test the same resistance that has held it back most of the day, as well as the trendline that had marked the inverse H&S. Perhaps that trendline slopes so strongly that, despite the lower low on the advdec line, the inverse H&S still might be valid. The trendline is now at about -1620, with the advdec line moving just over it as I type, now at -1600. Still really iffy evidence, if it's evidence of anything at all. The OEX has also come up to test the descending trendline off the day's high, having just pierced it but fallen back. That trendline is at about 569.01, if I've drawn it correctly, with the OEX at 568.93. This action is someone front-running the MOC orders, either because they know what they are, or think they do.

Jonathan Levinson : 11/14/2005 3:37:31 PM

A 3 cent bounce is enough to engulf all of the sellers from the past hour and a half on QQQQ as price rises to the top of the flat short cycle channel: Link

Linda Piazza : 11/14/2005 3:34:12 PM

The OEX's five and 15-minute Keltner charts give few clues. If anything, support may be a little stronger than resistance on the 15-minute chart, but resistance is as strong as support on the five-minute.

Jeff Bailey : 11/14/2005 3:33:41 PM

EU's ECB Executive Issing ... Saying ECB's monetary policy has been "well placed."

"Poor" economic performance seen in much of EU.

Jeff Bailey : 11/14/2005 3:28:03 PM

WellPoint Health (WLP) $74.61 +1.13% Link ... looks at Nov. $75 Call "resistance." Nov. $75 Calls (417:11,261) trade $0.50 here. Jan. $70 Puts (WLP-MN) active at 412:1,988 and last trade $1.50.

Linda Piazza : 11/14/2005 3:25:36 PM

The OEX bouncing after testing its neckline. that right shoulder is formed of its own H&S, though. (Aren't you getting tired of these endless formations? I am.) A down turn from near its current 568.65 level, up to about 568.80, maybe, wouldn't undo the right-shoulder H&S.

Jeff Bailey : 11/14/2005 3:25:36 PM

HMO Index (HMO.X) 1,631 +0.64% Link ... breaks to new monthly highs here.

Jane Fox : 11/14/2005 3:25:08 PM

Both AD line and AD volume have now made new daily lows.

Jeff Bailey : 11/14/2005 3:23:59 PM

Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) $384.51 -0.59% ...

Jeff Bailey : 11/14/2005 3:23:00 PM

Chicago Board of Trade (BOT) $114.00 +4.68% ... best levels of the session.

Earlier this morning, the NYSE said recent seat sale of $3.025 million marked new historic high. The previous recors sale was $3.0 million.

Jeff Bailey : 11/14/2005 3:18:07 PM

Datawatch Corp. (DWCH) $4.00 +18.69% Link ... testing its 200-day SMA.

Jonathan Levinson : 11/14/2005 3:17:42 PM

Volume breadth is back to -1.46:1 on the NYSE, -1.1:1 on the Nasdaq. Pricewise, the SPX has been respecting a one point range for the past hour, and QQQQ no more than a 5 cent range. Link

Linda Piazza : 11/14/2005 3:15:16 PM

The OEX has dropped toward a test of the neckline of its latest version of a H&S. I believe that neckline to be at 568, with the OEX currently at 568.04. The OEX is trying to maintain values above that neckline. The advdec line has dropped to a new low for the day, and appears to have vulnerability to -2275 to -2300. It's at -1961 as I type, QCharts value.

Jeff Bailey : 11/14/2005 3:11:32 PM

03:00 Internals found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 11/14/2005 3:08:57 PM

Everything is kind of in limbo, but if the OEX doesn't turn lower soon, it's going to invalidate its latest version of a H&S formation because the left shoulder didn't take too long to form and the right one needs to complete soon. I see the OEX has tried to bounce as I began typing this post. The advdec line is rising to test the resistance that's been holding it back all afternoon--no, falling back again as I type. Earlier it tried to confirm the inverse H&S on its three-mintue chart, but fell away from the neckline. It didn't fall far enough to create a new low, however. If it doesn't rise soon through its neckline, that inverse H&S will fizzle out, too. So, we have some conflicting formations, all of which appear ready to fizzle out or be invalidated, just as easily as be confirmed.

As I typed, the advdec line has fallen to test its previous low.

Jeff Bailey : 11/14/2005 3:02:45 PM

03:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 11/14/2005 2:56:54 PM

Advdec line dropping hard away from that inverse H&S neckline. Well, dropping hard if you're watching it on a one-minute chart. No new low of the day, though.

Linda Piazza : 11/14/2005 2:52:52 PM

Advdec line is trying again to confirm that inverse H&S.

Jeff Bailey : 11/14/2005 2:54:53 PM

Minerals Management Services (MMS) ... Saying it has seen steady improvement in Oil, Gas output in U.S. Gulf.

727,054 b/d oil (48.5%), 3.74 bcf/d (37.4%) gas still off line.

Cumulative shut-in oil production since Aug. 26 - when Katrina triggered the first wave of offshore evacuations - reached 85.67 million, or 15.6% of yearly Gulf crude oil output.

Lost natural gas production amounted to 442.05 billion cubic feet, or 12.1% of the region's annual gas output.

Some 162 offshore platforms remained evacuated Monday compared to 190 on Thursday.

Linda Piazza : 11/14/2005 2:49:09 PM

I'm watching OEX 568. That appears to be the neckline location for the OEX's latest H&S version--left shoulder forming Thursday afternoon, head at this morning's high, right shoulder forming on this afternoon's little push higher, and neckline slightly ascending. The OEX has set up various H&S versions today, and has confirmed some, only to bounce up again and reform. OEX at 568.41 as I type. The advdec line has not hit a new low yet.

Jane Fox : 11/14/2005 2:47:33 PM

AD volume to new daily lows.

Linda Piazza : 11/14/2005 2:45:52 PM

The advdec line did not confirm that inverse H&S, at least not yet. Watching to see if there will be a new low of the day, which also hasn't happened just yet. Advdec line at -1672 as I type.

Linda Piazza : 11/14/2005 2:41:54 PM

Advdec line trying to push above that resistance that held it back earlier this afternoon. Hasn't quite been successful yet, but the advdec line has a potential inverse H&S at the bottom of its decline today. Depending on how you draw the neckline, it's somewhere between -1500 and -1275. The advdec line is now at -1584, QCharts value. A new low, below the current -1851 low, would invalidate the formation.

Things are really iffy right now.

Jane Fox : 11/14/2005 2:40:41 PM

Isn't this interesting. The high of the VIX's first 5 minute bar was the low at 2:05. Then the high of ES's first 5 minute bar was the high of the swing high at 2:05. Link

Linda Piazza : 11/14/2005 2:37:48 PM

Along with the regular H&S's we can find on the OEX's charts, there's a potential inverse one on the three-minute chart, somewhat roughly formed. There was no bullish price/RSI divergence as the head was formed and the right shoulder dipped a little lower than it probabl should, and it's forming in a congestion zone, but it should probably be watched despite all those drawbacks. The neckline is now at about 569.50 and rising. If nothing else, it's presence indicates that bulls and bears haven't finished sorting out who is going to win the day.

Linda Piazza : 11/14/2005 2:35:25 PM

Advdec line coming back up to test the resistance that's been holding it this afternoon, now at about -1500 on 10-minute closes, with the advdec line now at -1630 and rising toward that resistance.

Jonathan Levinson : 11/14/2005 2:33:36 PM

QQQQ is stuck to the 72 SMA, holding at the midpoint of its narrow 26 range for the day. Volume has just now crossed the halfway point to Friday's 80M shares, and volume breadth is back to positive at +1.3:1 for the Nasdaq. Link

Linda Piazza : 11/14/2005 2:26:00 PM

TRAN below 4050 again, but just barely.

Linda Piazza : 11/14/2005 2:21:41 PM

The advdec line has so far not fallen to a new low, which will be a danger sign for bearish plays if it continues to hold above the previous low of the day. It's at -1730 as I type, QCharts value.

Jane Fox : 11/14/2005 2:20:03 PM

Unfortunately you have to keep your rod in the water because you never know when the big one will come along. Friday the big one never did come along and I suspect it will not today as well but you just never know.

Jonathan Levinson : 11/14/2005 2:17:57 PM

Stepping away for a few minutes.

Jane Fox : 11/14/2005 2:16:43 PM

I don't like bellyaching about tough trading days because I believe 90% of trading days are difficult to trade, if not then we would all be rich heh? But there are some days that are so much more difficult than the norm that you know you will remember them for months to come. Friday and today are two of those days.

Jeff Bailey : 11/14/2005 2:14:06 PM

02:00 Internals found at this Link

Jane Fox : 11/14/2005 2:12:29 PM

Like I said you can't trust anything today. As soon as you think the bulls are gaining strength the TICKs print a -800.

Linda Piazza : 11/14/2005 2:12:24 PM

Advdec line resistance holds. Now bears need to see a new low to confirm that.

Jeff Bailey : 11/14/2005 2:05:06 PM

02:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 11/14/2005 2:03:33 PM

Advdec line resistance near -1400, with the advdec line currently at -1447. There's been slightly more strength in the advdec line in that it has climbed above a resistance currently at -1540. This was why I warned about the bullish value/RSI divergences I was seeing. The advdec line may just be climbing into stronger resistance, but bears need to see resistance hold. Otherwise, there could be a repeat of other days when it held for a while and then a push later in the day broke through the resistance.

Jonathan Levinson : 11/14/2005 2:01:45 PM

QQQQ pops back above decline 72 SMA resistance at 40.70 here, retracing the afternoon's losses: Link

Jeff Bailey : 11/14/2005 2:00:35 PM

Bearish day trade stop alert .... KLA-Tencor (KLAC) $51.55 +3.10% here.

Jane Fox : 11/14/2005 2:00:19 PM

I see AD volume climbing and the bulls are gaining a little strength, which is confirmed by the VIX falling. Don't let this fool you though we have seen this kind of action many many times in the last few days and it can lead to nowhere.

Jeff Bailey : 11/14/2005 1:59:33 PM

This market looks/feels very NAKED CALL short. ie. sold way too many naked calls for the underlying strength found in recent weeks.

Jeff Bailey : 11/14/2005 1:51:47 PM

VXN.X 14.87 +4.64% .... WEEKLY Pivot Levels ... 12.19, 13.29, Piv= 15.01, 16.11, 17.83.

Linda Piazza : 11/14/2005 1:49:27 PM

The TRAN finally dropped beneath 4050, but it hasn't stayed there long, so far. The TRAN has to close a 30-minute period below a line currently at 4033.26 before it changes its trend since late October.

Jeff Bailey : 11/14/2005 1:48:32 PM

QQQQ $40.66 -0.12% ... intra-day option chain screen captures at this Link and Link

May hold 90% of the answer to Jane's 01:25:15 post.

Jonathan Levinson : 11/14/2005 1:45:09 PM

QQQQQ continues to drift, but holds below 72 SMA resistance. This has the 30 and 60 min channels declining here, down to just above S2 at 40.55. Volume has yet to reach half of Friday's sub-average 80M QQQQ shares. Link

Linda Piazza : 11/14/2005 1:37:26 PM

The OEX is yet again apparently reforming its H&S, now with a horizontal neckline at about the day's low, at 567.86, and with the shoulder level at about 568.50. The OEX is chopping around in the right-shoulder zone now, with the possibility that it could go on doing so for another hour or two, without destroying the symmetry with the left shoulder.

Be prepared. If the OEX should confirm this version and drop to 566.85 or so, it could form yet-another version, rising into a new right shoulder.

Jonathan Levinson : 11/14/2005 1:30:44 PM

Volume breadth is down to -1.36:1 on the NYSE, -1.13:1 on the Nasdaq.

Linda Piazza : 11/14/2005 1:26:17 PM

Advdec line moving lower again. It's beginning to show some bullish value/RSI divergence on some charts, though, and bears should keep the warning that offers in mind. So far, resistance continues to hold, however, and there's a threatened break lower, to about -2200. So far, so good for bearish plays, but keep the advdec line on the radar screen, if you have the ability to watch it. It's now at -1755.

Jane Fox : 11/14/2005 1:25:15 PM

Lower lows and lower highs along with bearish internals means the bears have the reins so why can't the markets get any traction?

Jonathan Levinson : 11/14/2005 1:23:59 PM

The high rates on those auctions were the highest this year and exceeded the quarterly averages going back to 2000 in the case of the 13-week bills, 2001 in the case of the 26-week bills.

Jeff Bailey : 11/14/2005 1:32:15 PM

6-month Bills 4.195% high rate; 23.23% at high. Bid-to-cover 2.38. $1.61B noncomps.

$38.11 billion awarded in Monday's auction with Treasury accepting $16.00 billion in bids, including $1.61 billion of noncompetitive tenders. The dollar price was 97.878194 and the investment rate, or bond-equivalent return, was 4.345%

Treasury also sold $158.00 million of 6-month bills to foreign and international monetary authority accounts on a noncomp bidding basis.

Tenders submitted at high yield were allotted 23.23%.

Median rate was 4.180%; that is, 50% of the amount of accepted competitive bids were tendered at or below that rate.

Of competitive bids, 5% were tendered at or below the rate of 4.170%.

The Federal Reserve purchased $13.62 billion in bills for its own account in Monday's 3-month and 6-month bill auctions. When the auction was announced, the Fed held $16.41 billion of maturing bills.

High rate was up from 4.155% at the previous 6-month bill auction. The high rate (4.195%) was the highest since the rate of 4.220% at the 6-month auction on 03/19/01.

Linda Piazza : 11/14/2005 1:19:21 PM

Advdec line bouncing back to test resistance again, with that near -1200 now and with the advdec line now at -1608. So far, on the advdec line, it's been down, down, down all day. The damage to the indices has been minimal, however.

Marc Eckelberry : 11/14/2005 1:18:59 PM

QQQQ has dropped 2004 high of 40.68 and the January 41 put trade at 1.05 is getting nicely in the money. I will raise the stop shortly. We don't want them to take back 40.68 for too long.

Jeff Bailey : 11/14/2005 1:32:07 PM

13-week yield ($IRX.X) up 2.0 bp at 3.892% ... 3-month bill auction 3.910% high rate; 85.73% at high. Bid-to-cover was 2.12. $1.99B noncomps.

$18.00 billion awarded in Monday's auction with the Treasury receiving $38.08 billion in bids. The dollar price was 99.011639 and the investment rate, or bond-equivalent return, was 4.004%.

Treasury also sold $150.3 billion of bills to foreign and international monetary authority accounts on a noncompetitive bidding basis.

Tenders submitted at the high yield were allotted 85.73%.

Median rate was 3.900%; that is, 50% of the amount accepted competitive bids were tendered at or below that rate.

Of the competitive bids accepted, 5% were tendered at or below the rate of 3.870%.

Jonathan Levinson : 11/14/2005 1:14:04 PM

A big upside move in QQQQ volatility today (QQV), +7.6% at 14.3. The total CBOE put to call ratio (realtime) is .99 here. While the p/c ratio at each strike favors support at QQQQ 39 and at 40, we could be seeing institutional buying of deflated QQQQ puts such as to spike the premium (as measured by QQV). That could remove some of the put support in recent weeks, but so far put volume is heaviest at 41 for the November puts and at 40 for the Nov. calls- no evidence volume-wise of a big effort to buy back OTM Nov. QQQQ puts.

Linda Piazza : 11/14/2005 1:13:32 PM

OEX rising to test Keltner resistance at 568.15 on the five-minute chart, having held above the Keltner support at 567.95, so far, into this 15-minute close. There are still a few minutes left in this period, but the support tentatively holds. OEX at 568.08 as I type. This needs to break to see 566.26 downside target.

Jeff Bailey : 11/14/2005 1:11:13 PM

01:00 Internals found at this Link

Jane Fox : 11/14/2005 1:08:21 PM

AD volume and AD line are making new daily lows. Don't be a hero and try to catch a bottom here.

Jane Fox : 11/14/2005 1:07:22 PM

ES (SPX) now breaks to a new daily low following the VIX.

Jonathan Levinson : 11/14/2005 1:06:00 PM

The 13-week bills sold for 3.91% yielding 4.004%, and set a bid to cover ratio of 2.12. The 26-week bills sold for 4.195% yielding 4.345%, and generated 2.38 bids for each accepted.

Jonathan Levinson : 11/14/2005 1:03:53 PM

Foreign central banks took a respectable 9.3B of the 34B in 13- and 26-week bills auctioned, not a record but still a solid showing.

Linda Piazza : 11/14/2005 1:03:34 PM

New low on the advdec line. The TRAN, however, holds above 4050.

Jeff Bailey : 11/14/2005 1:02:06 PM

01:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 11/14/2005 1:01:50 PM

The OEX is at an important point on its five-minute and 15-minute charts now. It's testing support at 568.04 on a five-minute close and 567.95 on a 15-minute close. Below that, next support is near 566.13-566.27 on those charts.

Jonathan Levinson : 11/14/2005 1:00:52 PM

The 13-week and 26-week treasury auction results are delayed on the Treasury's site, but the market doesn't appear too impressed with them so far.

Jonathan Levinson : 11/14/2005 1:00:10 PM

QQQQ breaks the lows, approaching 30/60 min channel support: Link

Linda Piazza : 11/14/2005 1:00:07 PM

Advdec line testing the previous low of the day.

Linda Piazza : 11/14/2005 12:59:33 PM

Advdec line resistance holds. Now bears want to see a new low on the advdec line. They want to see one on the OEX, too. The OEX could be reforming into a new H&S on the 15-minute chart, with the neckline at about 568.35.

Jonathan Levinson : 11/14/2005 12:59:11 PM

The Fed announced a coupon pass, a permanent addition to liquidity, in the amount of $1.096B deliverable tomorrow.

Jane Fox : 11/14/2005 12:57:13 PM

VIX is making new daily highs but ES is not making new daily lows. This is making me believe the VIX is becoming unreliable as a market internal but once again even if it is this is not bullish.

Jeff Bailey : 11/14/2005 12:57:00 PM

Bearish day trade lower stop alert ... for KLA-Tencor (KLAC) $51.36 +2.72% .... to $51.55.

Jonathan Levinson : 11/14/2005 12:51:18 PM

BEIJING (AP) - The government Monday reported a new case of bird flu in poultry in the country's east, while experts from the World Health Organization traveled to central China to investigate whether the virus killed a 12-year-old girl there.

Link

Jeff Bailey : 11/14/2005 12:49:49 PM

ECB's Weber ...

EU labor laws impede job creation

EU budget deficit pacts haven't worked

Linda Piazza : 11/14/2005 12:49:33 PM

Hmm. TRAN still dropping, although tentatively so as I type.

Linda Piazza : 11/14/2005 12:41:59 PM

You all know that I watch the advdec line. This morning, it fell beneath a 15-minute channel that it's now risen to retest, with that channel at about -1250 and with further resistance at -1107. In the past, the OEX often hugged this channel and moved sideways down (or sideways up, when it hit it to the upside) when it had hugged this long into the day. However, lately, specifically on Tuesday and Thursday of last week, that channel line didn't hold and a bounce ensued by about this time of day. Today's pattern doesn't look exactly the same as those seen last week. The climb hasn't been as strong to retest that resistance. Keep a watch on this, whether in bearish or bullish plays. A downturn in the advdec line now would be a departure from those stronger days last week.

Jonathan Levinson : 11/14/2005 12:37:06 PM

QQQQ's volume breadth is back to light positive at +1.3:1, and price is holding unchanged at 40.71. Considering how overbought the indicators looked at Friday's open, these prints are an impressive show of force from bulls (or at least, of weakness on the part of sellers). Bond yields are up strongly, TNX +5.6 bps now at 4.62% (a 1.23% increase today), crude oil refused to return to its overnight 57.40 low, but still, the Qs won't dip below that 40.68 level for longer than a few slow, low-volume ticks at a time. The short cycle indicators are trying to turn up, and unless something changes, all we've seen so far is that "they" can't run it lower. Link

Linda Piazza : 11/14/2005 12:35:54 PM

At 11:54:59, I posted that the OEX's nearby support and resistance looked about equally weighted, and that the OEX was either going to have to surge through one or the other or else chop around long enough to soften one or the other. It's taken the soften-up route, but I can't yet tell that one has softened more than the other. It looks as if resistance may be softening a little, but that's really an iffy call and one I wouldn't peg a trade on. It is one reason, among others, that I suggested a point a few minutes ago, before the OEX bounced again, at which short-term bears might take partial or full profit, depending on their trading styles.

Linda Piazza : 11/14/2005 12:21:45 PM

The VIX has broken higher after having spent most of the morning testing the five-minute 100-ema. It's not broken above it, making a sharp gain.

Jane Fox : 11/14/2005 12:20:43 PM

That little spike in the VIX may be due to OPEX but even if it is that is not bullish. Link

Linda Piazza : 11/14/2005 12:16:34 PM

This is a good place for OEX bears to consider taking partial profit (full, if conservative and trading short-term) if you entered near the high of the day, and haven't yet taken partial profit.

Jonathan Levinson : 11/14/2005 12:14:10 PM

Stepping away for a few minutes.

Jeff Bailey : 11/14/2005 12:13:43 PM

12:00 Internals found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 11/14/2005 12:10:48 PM

OEX chopping around between that five-minute support and resistance that I mentioned earlier as looking about equally weighted. They're at 568.75-569.05 at the top and 568.06-569.77 on the bottom.

Jonathan Levinson : 11/14/2005 12:08:59 PM

Session lows for ten year notes and QQQQ together, but the Qs are hanging onto every penny so far, a very difficult grind slowly lower, just like Friday. Link

Jeff Bailey : 11/14/2005 12:05:36 PM

12:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 11/14/2005 12:04:04 PM

Ten year note yields have popped through 4.6%, now up 4.8 bps at 4.61%.

Linda Piazza : 11/14/2005 12:00:16 PM

The TRAN has shown some short-term weakness, but it needs to close a 30-minute period below Keltner support currently at 4029.15 to change its trend. It's been closing above that particular support since the morning of 10/28. If in bearish positions on the SPX, OEX or Dow, I'd be particularly careful as the TRAN approached the 4030-4050 zone, if it does, for the potential of a bounce. If you're in a bearish position, you're hoping for the TRAN to plow through that likely support. If you're in a bullish position and the TRAN does hit that and bounce, you sould be watchful near the recent high for the potential of a rollover. The TRAN's bounce has been fantastic for you, but it's going to need to take a breather some time or another.

Jonathan Levinson : 11/14/2005 11:55:48 AM

QQQQ is down to 40.69, still very light volume, narrow range and slow movement. Channel support is unchanged at 40.60: Link

Linda Piazza : 11/14/2005 11:54:58 AM

Turning to the OEX five-minute Keltner picture: The OEX has resistance at 568.92-568.99 and support at 568.02-568.09, and they look about equally weighted. It will take either a strong shove through one or the other or else a little chopping around to loosen one or the other. OEX at 568.67 as I type.

Jane Fox : 11/14/2005 11:53:21 AM

This time the VIX made a new daily high confirming ES's (SPX) new daily low.

Jonathan Levinson : 11/14/2005 11:52:16 AM

Volume breadth has been deteriorating as bond yields rise, now down to -1.3:1 on the NYSE, +1.18:1 on the Nasdaq.

Linda Piazza : 11/14/2005 11:49:57 AM

Advdec line still dropping.

Linda Piazza : 11/14/2005 11:49:06 AM

OEX investors are reluctant to let it drop far enough to meet its curent 568.01-568.15 first downside target. It keeps hanging up in the vicinity of that H&S neckline, although it's now so rough that it's difficult to judge exactly where it is. The most conservative OEX bearish who entered near today's high might consider taking partial or full profit as the OEX approaches that first target unless it just barrels through it.

Jeff Bailey : 11/14/2005 11:48:45 AM

General Electric (GE) $34.44 -0.57% ... OEX heavyweight.

Jeff Bailey : 11/14/2005 11:48:14 AM

Exxon Mobil (XOM) $56.25 -0.47% ... OEX heavyweight.

Jeff Bailey : 11/14/2005 11:47:03 AM

CBOE Oil Index (OIX.X) 508.71 (unch) ... reverses morning gains.

Jonathan Levinson : 11/14/2005 11:42:52 AM

Headlines:

U.K.'S FTSE 100 EDGES UP 0.09% TO 5,470

FRANCE'S CAC 40 INDEX RISES 0.3% AT 4,548

GERMANY'S DAX INDEX UP 0.03% AT 5,092 AS TRADING ENDS

Linda Piazza : 11/14/2005 11:41:52 AM

Slight new LOD for the TRAN. It's essentially still testing an equal-low level, however.

Jonathan Levinson : 11/14/2005 11:41:29 AM

Ten year notes have broken to new lows and have retraced half of Thursday's gain (market was closed Friday), the 30 min cycle rolling over as TNX rises to a 3.4 bp gain a 4.598%, just below 4.6% resistance. ZN future chart at this Link

Linda Piazza : 11/14/2005 11:35:17 AM

The OEX coils while the advdec line continues to find resistance and drop. If I were in a lot of bullish positions, that dropping advdec line would make me nervous, but I'd certainly be heartened by the OEX's failure to drop significantly while that drop was occurring. That advdec line isn't doing anything that would be encouraging me to go long today, but the bears haven't exactly gotten their due, either.

Current OEX 15-minute Keltner picture: The OEX did find resistance during the previous 15-minute period where it had been finding support. According to that chart, it remains vulnerable to 568.46 and maybe to 567.79 as a downside target. OEX at 569.07 as I type.

The OEX also has a rough H&S, with the head formed of a H&S of its own and with the neckline at about 568.77, so that it might be difficult to push the OEX below that neckline level.

Jonathan Levinson : 11/14/2005 11:33:25 AM

Crude oil is dowbn to unchanged at 57.525 here, natgas -.22 at 11.49.

Jonathan Levinson : 11/14/2005 11:29:20 AM

Ten year note yields climb to a 2.2 bp gain at 4.586% with ZN futures at a new session low, while 13-week rates are up 2.3 bps to 3.895%. The 11B in new supply of 4-week bills announced half an hour ago is proving bullish for bond yields here.

Jonathan Levinson : 11/14/2005 11:23:06 AM

The market agrees with you Jane- volume is running as light as any summer session here. Traders are waiting for someone else to take the first step.

Linda Piazza : 11/14/2005 11:21:22 AM

The OEX hasn't yet dropped even to its first target, although it got close to the top of that target range. The TRAN is bouncing hard as I type, and we're about to see if it's just widening what had looked like a possible bulling falling wedge into a regular old descending regression channel or whether it's just broken to the upside out of that wedge and will keep going. The advdec line has bounced only minimally from its low, still below resistance.

Jonathan Levinson : 11/14/2005 11:18:54 AM

From the Treasury's website: The Treasury will auction 4-week Treasury bills totaling $24,000 million refund an estimated $13,000 million of publicly held 4-week Treasury bills maturing November 17, 2005, and to raise new cash of approximately $11,000 million.

Jeff Bailey : 11/14/2005 11:15:46 AM

11:00 Internals found at this Link

Jane Fox : 11/14/2005 11:13:13 AM

... unfortunately though the VIX did not make a new daily high confirming ES's new daily low.

Jane Fox : 11/14/2005 11:12:15 AM

Ok we are now getting a little better information - both AD volume and line are now making new daily lows.

Jonathan Levinson : 11/14/2005 11:11:52 AM

Volume breadth ticks negative on the NYSE, -1.05:1 here, still positive at +1.4:1 on the Nasdaq.

Linda Piazza : 11/14/2005 11:10:51 AM

TRAN dropping. Its drop is beginning to take on a little of a falling wedge look, however, so it needs to steepen its decline to avoid the look of that bullish formation. TRAN at 4061.79. A conservative downside target for its confirmed H&S was at about 4050.

Linda Piazza : 11/14/2005 11:09:27 AM

For the first time since Thursday afternoon, the OEX closed a 15-minute period below the Keltner support now at 569.40, perhaps now converting that level, up to 570.03, into resistance and perhaps aiming the OEX down toward 567.80-568.35 as a first downside target. If you're in bearish plays, be careful with your positions today, as there hasn't yet been a lot of confirmation that they're a good idea.

Jonathan Levinson : 11/14/2005 11:07:49 AM

QQQQ printed a low one penny above 40.68 support, currently bouncing against the new slowly rolling short cycle indicators, which failed early in their upphase. A break of 40.68 on expanding volume will be the first suggestion of trouble for bulls here, with S2 and 30/60 min channel supports looking strong so far at 40.60, also the bottom of price confluence from Thursday's close. Volume has picked up slightly on the bounce, but remains quite light overall. Link

Linda Piazza : 11/14/2005 11:07:03 AM

Chop, chop. The OEX also confirmed a H&S on its two-minute chart, perhaps with that formation making up the head of a larger H&S. Anyway, the OEX heads up again to either form that right shoulder, reject the whole thing or maybe just into a retest of the neckline. The TRAN still coils, but it coils because it hasn't been able to rise past it's own neckline for its own H&S. The formation's validity is fizzling out, though, the longer the TRAN coils.

Jeff Bailey : 11/14/2005 11:03:49 AM

11:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 11/14/2005 11:01:01 AM

Bearish day trade short alert ... for KLA-Tencor (KLAC) $51.50 +3.0% here, stop $52.00, target $50.50

Linda Piazza : 11/14/2005 11:00:13 AM

New low of the day on the advdec line, equal or almost equal low on the TRAN. As the end of the current 15-minute period approaches, the OEX sits near the support at 569.37 on 15-minute closes, just a little below it, but not yet significantly below it. A first downside target now might be 567.83-568.13.

Jonathan Levinson : 11/14/2005 10:59:35 AM

Ten year note yields creep higher, TNX +1.1 bps at 4.575%. IRX holds its 1.5 bp gain at 3.887%.

Jane Fox : 11/14/2005 10:55:04 AM

This is your ultimate recipe for chop and until it resolves we will not have a direction - just like early Friday. Link

Linda Piazza : 11/14/2005 10:52:36 AM

Instead of falling sharply lower after confirming its H&S on the two-minute chart, the TRAN coils at/just below the neckline, depending on how it's drawn. Not a great sign for bears, since it shows that the bulls haven't given up yet. Bears were able to get the formation confirmed, but not to meet the downside target. At least they haven't done so yet.

The advdec line is rising, but only rising to test resistance, at about -500. The advde cline has been following that resistance lower all day.

Linda Piazza : 11/14/2005 10:43:22 AM

The OEX looks as if it will close this 15-minute period above that support that's been bouncing it since Thursday afternoon, with that support at 569.21 currently. On other fronts, though, I wonder if some support is crumbling beneath it, if the TRAN stumbles.

Linda Piazza : 11/14/2005 10:41:52 AM

The TRAN has now confirmed that H&S on its 2-minute chart. It's coming right back up to test the neckline, though. A conservative downside target is 4050, if met. Remember I'm watching this to see if the TRAN's strength is flagging.

Jonathan Levinson : 11/14/2005 10:40:14 AM

QQQQ's Friday drift lower is now a Monday drift higher, on extremely light volume. But the slope is a little steeper, and volume breadth is holding above neutral, currently +1.7:1 on the Nasdaq. Still very few clues, and it's still just chop: Link

Jane Fox : 11/14/2005 10:34:55 AM

I was blaming Friday's lack luster trading on the fact that the bond market was closed and a lot of equity traders took the day off as well but today is shaping up to be the very same type of day. We have a positive AD volume that is trying to climb but the AD line is negative and continues to fall. We have a VIX that is makes new daily lows then quickly retreats back to its daily range and does not follow through. This is tough to read.

Linda Piazza : 11/14/2005 10:33:16 AM

The OEX just ended the last 15-minute period at the Keltner support now at 569.22, with that support having bounced the OEX since Thursday afternoon. The OEX is above that support now, but finding resistance at the 30-minute resistance at 570.13, too. Mixed picture. OEX at 569.42 as I type, attempting another bounce from that support.

Jonathan Levinson : 11/14/2005 10:31:28 AM

Crude oil drops to a .425 gain at 57.95.

Jeff Bailey : 11/14/2005 10:30:55 AM

OPEC President sees no need to cut production now.

Jonathan Levinson : 11/14/2005 10:26:30 AM

Ten year notes are at the low end of today's sideways range, down 7/64 at 108 15/64 here. TNX is up .7 bps at 4.571%, and IRX is up 1.5 bps at 3.887%, slightly flattening the yield curve.

Linda Piazza : 11/14/2005 10:26:27 AM

TRAN at the neckline now, but this right shoulder still isn't symmetrical to the left. Advdec line dropping now.

Linda Piazza : 11/14/2005 10:25:52 AM

In case you're wondering what's wrong with my spelling and typing this morning and whether I'm recovering from a bender over the weekend, no, I'm recovering, but from something else. I've been sick and my hands are shaky. I apologize for the frequent typos.

Linda Piazza : 11/14/2005 10:24:26 AM

Okay, here's what I see: The advdec line is still finding resistance where bears would want to see it find resistance, but it hasn't started dropping again and it's in danger of doing what it did Friday--just holding at that level through most of the day and then making a mid-afternoon move (higher, in Friday's case). The TRAN is perhaps forming a H&S on top of its climb, on its two-minute chart, but it hasn't confirmed that formation nor even begun to meet the downside target. So far, it fits the formation. The OEX continues to bounce. I can't check volume on the OEX, but the SPY shows some bearish price spread/volume patterns, but it's climbing, too.

Conclusion? None. There are some warning signs, but the same ones that have been showing up and not heeded for days. It's the same thing that's been getting bears into trouble all that time.

Jeff Bailey : 11/14/2005 10:22:24 AM

Home Depot (HD) $42.75 +2.0% Link ....

Jeff Bailey : 11/14/2005 10:21:35 AM

Lowes Companies (LOW) $65.75 +6.08% Link ... Home-improvement retailer sharply higher after the company said earnings rose nearly 26% to $649 million, or $0.81 a share vs. $516 million, or $0.65 a share in the year ago quarter. Consensus was for $0.77 a share.

Sales for the latest quarter came in at $10.6 billion, up 16.9% from $9.1 billion in Q3 2004. Sales at stores open at least a year rose 6.2%.

Looking forward the company forecast earnings of $0.77-$0.80 for Q4 and $3.37-$3.40 for the year.

Linda Piazza : 11/14/2005 10:20:39 AM

TRAN still within the appropriate level for a right-shoulder formation on its two-minute chart. Neckline between 4064.46 and 4066.85, depending on how it's drawn. TRAN at 4070.00 as I type, but it looks as if it could probably take up to another hour to finish the right shoulder and stilll have it be roughly symmetrical with the left shoulder.

Jane Fox : 11/14/2005 10:19:01 AM

That new daily high in ES (SPX) was confirmed by a VIX new daily low. AD volume continues to make new daily highs and I see the bulls starting to pull ahead here.

Linda Piazza : 11/14/2005 10:18:29 AM

New high for the OEX. It has not changed its pattern of bouncing from the Keltner support now at 569.13. It's hitting its 30-minute target, with the 60-minute target at 571.74. OEX at 569.97.

Jonathan Levinson : 11/14/2005 10:16:34 AM

Session high for QQQQ at 40.83, with volume breadth holding strong at +2:1 for the Nasdaq but overall volume light at 13.1M shares so far today. 30/60 min channel and R1 resistance are at 40.90: Link

Linda Piazza : 11/14/2005 10:16:07 AM

TRAN rising again into a right shoulder, from the 4064-4065 zone that I thought it might do so from. It didn't even drop quite to 4065. Right shoulder in the 4075 zone or below, with the TRAN currently at 4070.57 as I type.

Linda Piazza : 11/14/2005 10:15:00 AM

The problem with many of us is that we keep seeing these signs that the climb isn't a healthy one, so we don't want to commit to it, but then the climb continues.

Jonathan Levinson : 11/14/2005 10:14:01 AM

Full text of Greenspan's speech to the Banco de Mexico's 80th Anniversary International Conference, Mexico City at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 11/14/2005 10:13:33 AM

10:00 Internals found at this Link

Friday's Internals found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 11/14/2005 10:12:41 AM

Headlines:

GREENSPAN: ECONOMIC FLEXIBILITY KEY FOR TRADE GAP ADJUSTMENT

GREENSPAN: CUTTING FISCAL DEFICIT NOT PANACEA FOR TRADE GAP

GREENSPAN: NO MAGIC BULLET TO CUT CURRENT ACCOUNT DEFICIT

GREENSPAN: DOLLAR WILL NOT LOSE RESERVE STATUS ANYTIME SOON

GREENSPAN: U.S. CURRENT ACCOUNT DEFICIT CANNOT GROW FOREVER

Linda Piazza : 11/14/2005 10:13:31 AM

Marc just mentioned the SPY's PC ratio. My chart's aren't uploading this morning, so I can't show you what I see, but the SPY just was knocked back on a 15-minute candle with larger-than-normal volume. That's a sign of selling. The trouble is, I've been seeing signs like this for a while, with no downturn.

Jonathan Levinson : 11/14/2005 10:07:46 AM

Crude oil is up .65 at 58.175, natgas +.15 at 11.86.

Linda Piazza : 11/14/2005 10:07:10 AM

TRAN at a new low of the day, but I'm going to have to revise the formation for the possible H&S, perhaps. It's possible that the TRAN will drop to 4064-4065 and then bounce into a right shoulder. That right shoulder was wimpy, so it may still need another. TRAN at 4065.82 as I type. So far, bears aren't exactly winning, but they are in the game.

Linda Piazza : 11/14/2005 10:05:31 AM

Another OEX 15-minute close above the Keltner support currently at 568.97. These 15-minute candles are beginning to look a bit tentative, though. What am I saying? They've been looking that way, but the OEX still climbs. Right now, though, it's testing that support again, the OEX at 568.88.

Jane Fox : 11/14/2005 10:03:58 AM

VIX just made a bullish new daily low.

Jane Fox : 11/14/2005 10:03:17 AM

As long as the AD volume is positive and AD line is negative we will continue to get this non-directional type trading just like we did on Friday. This could be a long day.

Jeff Bailey : 11/14/2005 10:03:12 AM

10:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 11/14/2005 10:00:39 AM

Potential H&S on the TRAN's 2-minute chart, head at today's 4080.95 high, shoulders at about 4075 or lower, with the TRAN now rising into a right-shoulder formation. These two-minute formations are not particularly predictive of targets, but they can tell us whether the bulls or bears are winning the short-term battle. TRAN at 4074.26 as I type.

Linda Piazza : 11/14/2005 9:56:55 AM

If the OEX should close a 15-minute period below that Keltner line currently at 568.92, the first downside target would be 567.24, but I don't know how much bears should count on any downside targets being hit. OEX at 569.15 as I type.

Linda Piazza : 11/14/2005 9:55:09 AM

Advdec line's resistance did hold. The TRAN still holds near it's high, however. The OEX hasn't changed its pattern of bouncing from the Keltner support now at 568.92 on 15-minute closes. And that's about all I can say, because this evidence is decidedly mixed.

Jonathan Levinson : 11/14/2005 9:54:18 AM

Volume breadth has strengthened to +1.12:1 on the NYSE, +2.07:1 on the Nasdaq.

Jeff Bailey : 11/14/2005 9:55:47 AM

Tyson Foods (TSN) $16.94 -8.43% ... The world's largest meat and poultry processor said it earned $98 million, or $0.28 a share vs. a profit of $66 million, or $0.19 a share in the year ago quarter. The latest results included a nonrecurring tax benefit of $15 million, and $8 million in pre-tax losses sustained from Hurricane Katrina. The items added $0.03 per share in profit.

Sales fell 9% to $6.5 billion from $7.15 billion in the year-ago quarter, mainly because of lower volume from on less week of sales this year.

Consensus was for TSN to earn $0.30 a share on sales of $7.03 billion.

For 2006 the company is currently forecasting earnings between $0.95 and $1.25 per share (consensus $1.33 per share). Tyson said it expects to record more charges from Hurricane Katrina in the quarter.

Jonathan Levinson : 11/14/2005 9:53:43 AM

The Fed announces an overnight repo of 4B, for a net add in that amount.

Jane Fox : 11/14/2005 9:52:47 AM

Sorry folks but I just cannot find anything that is revealing direction so far except for the TRIN which is making new daily lows.

Jonathan Levinson : 11/14/2005 9:52:08 AM

Copper prices pushed to a fresh all-time high on Monday amid market rumours that a Chinese government copper trader built a significant short position on the London Metal Exchange and subsequently went missing.

The three-month copper price rose to $4,132 per tonne from Friday's close of $4,100 before retreating to $4,079.5.

Link

The CRB is up .1 at 315.69, led by natural gas, heating oil and cotton futures.

Linda Piazza : 11/14/2005 9:51:04 AM

The advdec line has climbed to retest what should have been support, with that tentatively holding now as resistance. Meanwhile, the OEX climbs excessively for the little bump higher in the advdec line. It's been that way for about 10 days now. Advdecline at -55, QCharts value.

Jeff Bailey : 11/14/2005 9:49:58 AM

Brodade Communications (BRCDE) $4.08 +16.57% ... higher after the company said its audit committee had finished reviewing its stock option accounting and had found some stock-based compensation expenses that had not been included in the prior estimates announced on 05/16/05.

The company said that the internal review had identified stock-based compensation expenses associated principally with employees on leaves of absence and the company would restate its financial statements for the fiscal years ending 2002 through 2004 to record additional charges for stock-based compensation expense.

Linda Piazza : 11/14/2005 9:49:50 AM

Now the OEX follows with a new high above Friday's.

Linda Piazza : 11/14/2005 9:49:35 AM

The SPX just broke above Friday's high, averting a double-top formation unless it should drop back quickly, leaving only a candle shadow above Friday's 1235.70 high. The SPX's high today has been 1235.95, with the current level at 1235.86.

Jonathan Levinson : 11/14/2005 9:48:56 AM

QQQQ pops 5 cents to test Friday afternoon's high, but on declining volume this morning: Link

Jonathan Levinson : 11/14/2005 9:46:36 AM

The Fed's big 9B repo on Friday was a 6-day agreement, meaning that there will be no expirations today. Any add will be a net add, to be announced just before 10AM.

Jane Fox : 11/14/2005 9:46:21 AM

AD line is -321 but AD volume is barely negative so there is not enough information from these two yet to give me a feel for bullishness or bearishness. The VIX has fallen back within its previous day range and I think I will be disregarding the first 5 minute bar that opened above previous day range.

Jonathan Levinson : 11/14/2005 9:45:56 AM

QQQQ holds the upper end of Friday's afternoon's range, the short cycle indicators on the cusp of a new upphase. The range has been so ridiculously narrow that most of the cycle channels and intraday indicators are flatlined. Link

Tab Gilles : 11/14/2005 9:44:30 AM

IBM 84.40 9:43AM ET 0.15 (0.18%) Link

Linda Piazza : 11/14/2005 9:44:20 AM

TRAN still headed higher. Advdec line still headed lower.

Linda Piazza : 11/14/2005 9:43:28 AM

The OEX's 15-minute Keltner support so far looks to be holding into the 15-minute close, although there are still a couple of minutes left in that period. That support is now at 568.79, and it's been bouncing the OEX since Thursday afternoon. That trend has to change before there's any thought of a pullback. OEX at 569.01, so it will be touch and go into this close.

Linda Piazza : 11/14/2005 9:41:17 AM

Breakdown on the advdec line below support, but it now looks as if it's time to bounce soon and retest that support to see if it holds as resistance. It looks strong enough to do so, in the -100 to +100 region.

Linda Piazza : 11/14/2005 9:39:39 AM

The advdec line is slipping below support. This usually indicates the potential for a pullback, but Friday, the advdec line pulled back slightly lower than its current -238 and then began coiling. It coiled until the afternoon, then breaking higher. So, it could be giving false information, but so far, the trend has been down without any downward traction in the OEX.

Tab Gilles : 11/14/2005 9:38:49 AM

Nasdaq 100 ($NDX) Sector breakdown. Hardware 35%; Software 20%; Healthcare 15%. Link Link Link Link

Jeff Bailey : 11/14/2005 9:37:47 AM

Bearish swing trade stop alert ... for Schlumberger (SLB) $93.50 +1.65%

Jonathan Levinson : 11/14/2005 9:35:53 AM

Volume breadth is +1:1 on the NYSE, +1.8:1 on the Nasdaq at the open.

Linda Piazza : 11/14/2005 9:34:38 AM

The advdec line is dropping to test the support that it opened above, at about -100, with the advdec line now at +165 on QCharts. Nothing definitive there yet.

Jane Fox : 11/14/2005 9:33:55 AM

The VIX is bearishly above its previous day highs but I am giving this internal a little bit of latitude today because it is OPEX week.

Linda Piazza : 11/14/2005 9:33:54 AM

TRAN not doing much of anything yet.

Linda Piazza : 11/14/2005 9:33:11 AM

OEX Keltner picture: All day Friday and most of Thursday, too, the Keltner support currently at 568.73 bounced the OEX on each touch. The OEX is slightly below that support now, at 568.53, but with many minutes left in the current 15-minute period. That line would have to be violated on a 15-minute close before the trend had begun to change on even the shortest-term basis.

Jeff Bailey : 11/14/2005 9:32:01 AM

Wal-Mart (WMT) $49.41 +0.83% ... Said net income rose to $2.4 billion, or $0.57 a share compared to $2.3 billion, or $0.54 a share a year ago.

Net sales were $75.4 billion, a 10.1% increase over $68.5 billion in the year-ago quarter.

Consensus was for WMT to earn $0.57 a share on revenue of $76.35 billion.

Linda Piazza : 11/14/2005 9:31:06 AM

Slightly positive opening on the OEX, but then it drops a little. Advdec line opens above support and turns slightly higher. Nothing definitive yet.

Jeff Bailey : 11/14/2005 9:29:15 AM

Georgia Pacific (GP) $34.65 ... Trades higher at $47.40 after the company said it has agreed to a buyout offer from Koch Industries valued at more than $21 billion ($13.2 billion in cash and $7.8 billion in GP debt).

Koch Industries is the nation's second-largest privately held company.

Jonathan Levinson : 11/14/2005 9:22:57 AM

Crude oil trades near its session highs, currently +.575 at 58.10. There's news of a Tropical depression, number 27, still in its formative stage.

Jonathan Levinson : 11/14/2005 9:21:43 AM

Friday's sideways drift lower for QQQQ was enough to complete the long overdue 30 min cycle downphase, the longest such downphase in 2 weeks. Unfortunately for bears, that downphase resulted in no significant price decline, and suggests that Friday's intraday prints formed a bull flag at the top of Thursday's steep rise. However, the 60 min cycle is still in the opening stages of its downphase, and as noted Friday, the daily and weekly cycles are overbought as well.

There's no way to guess which way this ambiguity will resolve. Chop is the usual outcome of a conflict in these key cycles, and it's also a common theme during opex week, which kicks off today. For QQQQ, a break of 40.68 or 40.81 would be the first directional clue, but we'll want to see the volume and price action when such occurs.

Linda Piazza : 11/14/2005 8:53:01 AM

Friday, the OEX climbed again, climbing straight up to a descending trendline off the August 9 high and closing only a little below that trendline, at about Friday's 569.59 high of the day. It's not so far away from the approximate location of the descending trendline off the year's high, with that at about 562.60, if I've drawn that trendline correctly.

Since breaking out of its latest consolidation pattern on Thursday, the OEX has been dispatching one type of resistance after another. It finally hit and tested the 240-minute Keltner resistance now at 568.46, closing just a little above that resistance. It climbed above a 565.10-ish target from a fitted Fib bracket that I thought fit so nicely. I hated to see that nice fit spoiled, but spoiled it was. And, yet, the whole time the OEX has been climbing over the last few days, it has continued forming bearish divergence on its 60-minute chart. Cautions about those bearish divergences haven't been needed so far. In any case, they aren't a definitive sign of an imminent rollover but rather offers a warning to bulls to protect positions. Even that warning hasn't been needed.

It's been clear for a while that we needed to watch the TRAN for guidance, as this index, sometimes leading the SPX, OEX and Dow, was shooting higher. Its climb didn't seem sustainable without a pullback, but there's been nary a pullback. Last week, I posted this old chart for the TRAN, questioning whether the TRAN might really be headed up toward that upper envelope line again, with that envelope line now at 4193.42. I mentioned that another chart showed a slightly lower target, then at about 4069, but since having moved higher and hit Friday.

I don't have a strong sense of what will happen today, perhaps because I was away from the Monitor on Friday or perhaps because the TRAN's action, in particular, just doesn't give a strong sense of where support or resistance might be, and the TRAN's actions are governing so much of what's happening. Buying a dip to the OEX's 200-sma, currently at 564.75 might be a good idea, if the OEX dips that far and if internals seem to support such an action, but a climb to 570-572.60 might be possible first. Because indices were slicing right through resistance levels as they were passed, it's hard to know if they'll hold on the way down.

In any case, I'm not going to be posting plays today and perhaps for several days. Since beginning to post trades, my own trades have gone downhill and readers have lost money, too. I'm not trading to lose money and especially not that of readers. I'm going to trade in isolation for a few days and see what went wrong before I post trades again. I was careful to make sure that I had traded through both trending and choppy markets using this methodology before I began posting trades, since I know as well as anyone that a system that works in one type of market often doesn't in another. Its strength had appeared to be that it worked well in either, so I can't blame results on the new trend in the OEX. I know part of what's happening--I can't be as flexible--but that may not be all and I need to figure it out. So, I'll comment on what I see, but I won't be posting trades today and maybe all week.

Jonathan Levinson : 11/14/2005 8:24:39 AM

Ten year notes have ticked lower, now fractionally negative, while equities have ticked higher, NQ up to 1658.5, ES 1237.25 and QQQQ 40.73.

Jonathan Levinson : 11/14/2005 7:29:15 AM

Equities are down slighly, ES trading 1237.25, NQ 1658, YM 10701 and QQQQ +.02 at 40.73. Gold and silver are up at 470.70 and 7.839 respectively, ten year notes up 1/64 at 108 3/8, crude oil is up .525 at 58.05 and natgas is up .20 at 11.91

There are no major economic releases scheduled for today.

Linda Piazza : 11/14/2005 6:47:33 AM

Good morning. The Nikkei gapped higher and hit a new four-year high, but then dove through the afternoon, and ended the day in negative territory. Other Asian markets were mixed. European markets currently post strong gains. As of 6:41 EST, gold was higher by $1.40, to $470.80, and crude, higher by $0.49, to $58.02. Our futures trade near the flat-line level, also near their fair values, currently indicating a flat open. That may change with WMT earnings hitting the news as this report is prepared. More details about Asian and European markets follows in succeeding paragraphs.

Once again, the Nikkei gapped up Monday morning, hitting another new four-year high, and it did so despite figures showing net portfolio outflows from Japan. The Ministry of Finance reported that September's current account surplus expanded. The Nikkei dove during the afternoon session, however, closing down 39.02 points or 0.28%, at 14,116.04, more than 100 points off the day's high. Another economic report, this one by the Semiconductor Equipment Association of Japan (SEAJ), announced that September's global sales of chip equipment declined 10.8% from the year-ago level, but the degree of the decline from that year-ago level was slower than it had been in July and August.

Many exporters gained, some helped by their earnings report. After a newspaper reported this weekend on the death of two boys after taking Tamiflu, the stock of the Japanese distributor, Chugai Pharmaceutical Co., dropped during earliest trading. It is not clear whether Tamiflu contributed to their deaths, but they reportedly began reacting strangely after the drug was taken.

By the end of the day, techs had gained, but financials had lost. Financials have been hit lately, but a newspaper report this weekend that one was planning on issuing preferred stock to raise money also hurt the group. A Goldman Sachs unit sold most of its position in Mitsubishi Motor Corp., sending that company's stock lower.

Perhaps near the time the Nikkei declined, October's Department Store Sales for Tokyo was released, showing a decline of 1.5% year over year. Warmer-than-usual weather was blamed, but national retail sales may have softened, too.

Other Asian markets were mixed. The Taiwan Weighted gained 0.14%, and South Korea's Kospi climbed 0.12%. Singapore's Straits Times dropped 0.52%, and Hong Kong's Hang Seng lost 0.75%. China's Shanghai Composite lost 0.14%.

European markets climb. Airlines such as Deutsche Lufthansa and Air France were lower in earliest trading, but have climbed now. Some chip-related stocks such as STM and IFX were lower in earliest trading, but have since moved higher, too. The ever-evolving London Stock Exchange takeover story continues to evolve, with reports speculating that Goldman Sachs is taking steps to take over the exchange. The merger and acquisition Monday talk also centered on U.K. homebuilder Persimmon, which had bid for a rival, Westbury.

As of 6:36 EST, the FTSE 100 had climbed 9.30 points or 0.17%, to 5,474.40. The CAC 40 had gained 75.80 points or 1.69%, to 4,555.30. The DAX had gained 86.86 points or 1.73%, to 5,102.41.

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