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Tab Gilles : 11/16/2005 12:02:44 AM

$WTIC 40 week moving averages being tested. Cold weather in coming weeks may reverse the recent downtrend. Link

OI Technical Staff : 11/15/2005 9:59:59 PM

The Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

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Jeff Bailey : 11/15/2005 9:16:27 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles found at this Link

Today's Activity ... Swing trade bullish stopped on the 1/2 position in shares of Frontier Airlines (FRNT) at $9.20 ($-0.53, or -5.45%).

Jeff Bailey : 11/15/2005 7:14:51 PM

EIA Report on Hurricane Impacts on U.S. Energy (updated 11/15/05 04:00 PM) at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 11/15/2005 5:35:00 PM

Closing Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 11/15/2005 5:31:48 PM

Closing U.S. Market Watch found at this Link ... Note: I've been experiencing some "major problems" with my QCharts the past couple of days and High/Low readings (for those calculating DAILY Pivot Levels) may be incorrect.

Jeff Bailey : 11/15/2005 4:17:48 PM

UTStarcom (UTSI) released for trade ... $7.44 in extended

Jeff Bailey : 11/15/2005 4:13:58 PM

Buy Program Premium ... DIA $107.10, SPY $123.30

Linda Piazza : 11/15/2005 4:04:00 PM

Jonathan, I also had trouble with my mail today, and so haven't received or been able to answer any email, either.

Linda Piazza : 11/15/2005 3:58:54 PM

We certainly did not see a big rebound from the TRAN after it tested 4000.

Jonathan Levinson : 11/15/2005 3:54:07 PM

My POP server appears to be down, so anyone trying to email me, please be patient.

Jonathan Levinson : 11/15/2005 3:53:23 PM

Headline:

BERNANKE: CHINA NEEDS TO DO MORE TO MAKE CURRENCY FLEXIBLE

Jeff Bailey : 11/15/2005 3:52:27 PM

UTStarcom (UTSI) $8.11 ... still halted. Reuters news at this Link

UTStarcom press release at this Link

Linda Piazza : 11/15/2005 3:49:58 PM

I'm back. The TRAN is at 4001.87 as I type, not making much headway in its efforts to bounce, and looking bear flag-ish as it does bounce.

The OEX bounces back into the 15-minute 100/130-ema's at 567.30 and 566.81, also retesting the 38.2% retracement of the rally off the early morning low on Thursday. So far, this all looks like an expected bounce to relieve oversold pressures, but we've been fooled before. Like Mark, earlier, I'm still wary, especially with the OEX's 200-sma and ema's waiting below. I think it's possible those will get retested, but perhaps we can't yet say it's probable they will.

Jeff Bailey : 11/15/2005 3:35:37 PM

WellPoint Health (WLP) $75.81 +1.81% ... comes back from 02:00 relative low of $75.25 to challenge afternoon high and WEEKLY R2.

Jeff Bailey : 11/15/2005 3:33:44 PM

HMO Index (HMO.X) 1644.81 +0.96% ... all-time high alert!

Jonathan Levinson : 11/15/2005 3:31:52 PM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Ben Bernanke, who was nominated by President Bush to replace Fed chief Alan Greenspan, gave an upbeat assessment of the economic outlook in his confirmation hearing before the Senate Banking panel on Tuesday. "Near term the economy is in strong recovery. I am looking forward to that growth continuing next year despite the obviously serious effects of the hurricanes," Bernanke said. The economy has already withstood three years of rising energy prices, and so far, growth and inflation have not been very badly adversely affected. The Fed remains focused on keeping higher energy prices from feeding into other prices, he said. The confirmation hearing resumed after a two-hour break for votes on the Senate floor.

Headline: BERNANKE SEES NO NEAR-TERM SHIFT IN FOREIGN CAPITAL FLOWS

Jonathan Levinson : 11/15/2005 3:30:59 PM

The drop this afternoon reversed the 30 and 60 min upphases and whipsawed them early in their runs, a rare sight in recent weeks and suggestive of weakness in the broader daily cycle. So far, the bounce is flaggy and mostly sideways comparred with the preceding drop. A break above 40.60 should be enough to stall these new downphases, though the 72 SMA is down to 40.66, now below the pivot. Link

Jeff Bailey : 11/15/2005 3:29:27 PM

QQQQ $40.46 -0.61% .... any guesses on what is going on here? INTC pulled one way, MSFT pulled the other.

Linda Piazza : 11/15/2005 3:29:04 PM

I may be in and out over the last few minutes of the day, so I wanted to take a look at the charts. I said today that the most likely scenario would be for a doji or some other candle indicating indecision, or for an actual decline. We're seeing the actual decline after the OEX punched up to test the descending trendline off the summer high. If the OEX ends the day at 567.20 or below, it will have completed a reversal signal, although not a classic one. A classic one wouldn't have had that punch higher, but even the great Nison gives some leeway to behavior at resistance or behavior by indices rather than specific stocks.

I want you to remember the OEX's tendency to move big then spend days or sometimes weeks consolidating in 4-6 point ranges. The range from today's high down to the 200-sma at 564.76 and back again would make a natural place at which to see such a pattern set up again. Unless the OEX plunges straight through that average, we can probably expect to see some dip-buying, and maybe some of you will be among the dip-buyers. Right now, the OEX's 30-minute chart shows a channel that spans fron 564.67 on the bottom to 570.53 on the top, all at 30-minute closes.

If the OEX should plunge through the 200-sma and -ema's, there's support at about 563.40, but strongest support is probably near 561-562. Until and unless that happens, we should probably expect some dip-buying near the 200-sma and -ema's, if they're touched.

Jeff Bailey : 11/15/2005 3:27:49 PM

Microsoft (MSFT) $27.59 +0.80% ... best levels of the session here.

Nov. $25 Put (MSQ-WJ) $0.05 was heaviest OI at 59,419, Nov. $27.50 Call (MSQ-KY) $0.20 next at 50,410 and Nov. $27.50 Put (MSQ-WY) $0.20 next at 34,117.

Jeff Bailey : 11/15/2005 3:24:01 PM

Intel (INTC) $25.04 -1.30% ... session low and not unlike the QQQQ, just under its DAILY S2. INTC Nov. $25 Calls (INQ-KE) $0.25 were heaviest November OI and trade 4,799 on OI of 67,264.

Linda Piazza : 11/15/2005 3:17:32 PM

Remember the OEX's 200-sma at 564.76 and the 200-ema and 10-sma both converging at 564.17.

Jonathan Levinson : 11/15/2005 3:15:02 PM

Headline:

SENATE PANEL DROPS EXTENSION OF DIVIDEND, CAP GAINS TAX CUTS

Jeff Bailey : 11/15/2005 3:14:08 PM

03:00 Internals found at this Link

New Lows on the big board approaching the 161 found on 11/10/05.

Jonathan Levinson : 11/15/2005 3:13:18 PM

QQQQ bounces from a 40.38 low, testing S2 from below. Bulls need to get price back within yesterday's range to avoid a lower close and key reversal on the daily chart. The short cycle indicators are trending in oversold and overdue for a bounce. Link

Jane Fox : 11/15/2005 3:09:44 PM

"IF" MACD turns up here we could have some really nice positive divergences forming on all four markets. When this happens on all four it usually means the divergences will work out. This is the first bullish thing I have seen so far. I will keep looking for more. Link

Jonathan Levinson : 11/15/2005 3:09:01 PM

Headlines:

BERNANKE SAYS ECONOMY IS IN STRONG RECOVERY

BERNANKE: HOUSING PRICES WILL LIKELY STABILIZE

BERNANKE SEES GROWTH CONTINUING NEXT YEAR

BERNANKE: NEAR-TERM SITUATION IS 'STRONG'

Jane Fox : 11/15/2005 3:06:49 PM

THE VIX has been so cooperative today and in an OPEX week! Link

Linda Piazza : 11/15/2005 3:05:58 PM

TRAN hit 4000. OEX hit the 50% retracement of the rally off Thursday's early morning high. Bounces could be expected from these levels, but bears shouldn't let any bounce get away from them. Bulls will be looking for places to buy the dip.

Jane Fox : 11/15/2005 3:04:54 PM

I see nothing Nadda nich bullish about the market.

Jonathan Levinson : 11/15/2005 3:04:34 PM

Volume breadth is down to -1.98:1 on the NYSE, -1.95:1 on the Nasdaq.

Jeff Bailey : 11/15/2005 3:03:40 PM

03:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jane Fox : 11/15/2005 3:02:50 PM

AD line/volume are both breaking their previous day lows.

Jane Fox : 11/15/2005 3:01:53 PM

AD line at -1323 adn AD volume falling to new daily lows. Not the time to be long.

Jonathan Levinson : 11/15/2005 3:01:25 PM

QQQQ engulfs the flat range, closes the Friday gap and is on track for a key reversal print for the day. The bounce failed at the 40.60 level. Link

Linda Piazza : 11/15/2005 2:55:21 PM

The OEX is now below the 38.2% retracement of the rally off the Thursday morning low, with that number at 566.87. The 50% retracement is at 565.70.

Jonathan Levinson : 11/15/2005 2:54:42 PM

QQQQ breaks its previous low, still weaker than the SOX which is testing 462 support here after engulfing its steep gains from this morning.

Jeff Bailey : 11/15/2005 2:54:03 PM

Sell Program Premium ... DIA $106.94, SPX 1,228.63, QQQQ $40.49

Linda Piazza : 11/15/2005 2:53:38 PM

TRAN still dropping, but that round-number support at 4000 is going to kick in soon. The TRAN is at 4004.67 as I type, with 30-minute Keltner support at 4005.93 on 30-minute closes. There's a chance the TRAN may violate that on the close coming up.

Jeff Bailey : 11/15/2005 2:53:18 PM

December Unleaded (hu05z) $1.45 -2.7% ... retraces 80.9% of its May settlement low ($1.32) to September settlement high ($2.03)

Jane Fox : 11/15/2005 2:52:56 PM

TICKS -800

Jeff Bailey : 11/15/2005 2:51:13 PM

S&P Banks Index (BIX.X) 358.02 -0.89% ... session lows here and also probes WEEKLY Pivot (357.99)

Linda Piazza : 11/15/2005 2:47:41 PM

TRAN at 4008.13.

Linda Piazza : 11/15/2005 2:45:23 PM

The OEX has been testing the 15-minute 100-ema as the advdec line attempts to bounce. That average is at 567.39. Support is at the 38.2% retracement of the rally off Thursday's early morning low, at 566.87, and at the 15-minute 130-ema, at 566.63. OEX at 566.90 as I type.

Jeff Bailey : 11/15/2005 2:40:21 PM

QQQQ Options Chain ... screen captured just as QQQQ traded WEEKLY Pivot and VXN.X traded WEEKLY Pivot at this Link

QQQQ $40.58 -0.31%, VXN.X 15.02 +2.31% here

Jonathan Levinson : 11/15/2005 2:39:08 PM

QQQQ has bounced back to test the overhang from the range from below. The short cycles are oversold and due for an upturn, but volume has been waning on the bounce so far, making it look like a bear flag off the low: Link . 72-SMA resistance is down to the pivot at 40.73.

Jonathan Levinson : 11/15/2005 2:27:35 PM

New low for crude oil, -.725 at 56.975. Natgas trades -.085 at 11.52 with 3 minutes left of the day session.

Linda Piazza : 11/15/2005 2:26:17 PM

The advdec line is trying to rise from support that it's currently testing. It looks as if there's significant resistance in the -1930 to -1700 region, but remember the OEX's recent tendency to rise extravagantly for every little jot higher in the avdec line. Advdec line at -2285 as I type. It looks as if the OEX has first resistance near its current 567.39 level and then at 568. First support at 566.55-566.80, and it looks significant. Tough to gauge whether the OEX might climb as high as 568.73, to next resistance or just rollover here due to the advdec line weakness being seen. The TRAN has come within three points of its H&S target, but it looks weaker on a Keltner basis, as if it could still drop significant.

Jonathan Levinson : 11/15/2005 2:17:29 PM

QQQQ printed a higher high at the top, and currently trades below yesterday's and Friday's low. If it closes here, that setup will leave a key reversal/bearish engulfing candle on the daily chart, and with the daily cycle overbought (as discussed in last night's Market Wrap), we could be looking at a peak and reversal for the daily cycle. QQQQ bears need a close below 40.60.

Linda Piazza : 11/15/2005 2:15:05 PM

TRAN getting closer to that 4008-4010 target. Bears, be careful as it approaches it. The round-number support will be there, even if the TRAN slips past that 4008-4010 target. You want to see the TRAN blow through that 4008-4010 level and then blow through 4000, too, although I think that's a bit too much to hope for.

And I'm talking about SPX, OEX and Dow bears.

Jeff Bailey : 11/15/2005 2:14:17 PM

Schlumberger (SLB) $93.74 -0.04% ... slips red. One of 72 stocks on the big board that had traded a new 52-week high today ($96.03)

Jonathan Levinson : 11/15/2005 2:13:30 PM

Session low for crude oil here, -.625 at 57.075.

Jonathan Levinson : 11/15/2005 2:12:51 PM

Volume breadth weakens to -1.5 on the NYSE and the Nasdaq.

Linda Piazza : 11/15/2005 2:10:54 PM

TRAN just eight points away from its 4010-ish downside target from its H&S. It's 15-minute chart suggests it could go much lower, perhaps as low at 3982, but I wouldn't count on that. The TRAN does sometimes overrun targets.

Jane Fox : 11/15/2005 2:10:35 PM

TICKS -800 again

Jeff Bailey : 11/15/2005 2:10:20 PM

02:00 Internals found at this Link

Jane Fox : 11/15/2005 2:10:01 PM

Linda I completely agree. MY AD line was below 0 the whole day which did not let me join the bulls at all today.

Linda Piazza : 11/15/2005 2:08:19 PM

See those two blue horizontal lines on this advdec line chart? Those were drawn pre-market at the location of mid-channel support/resistance on the 30- and 60-minute charts. See how the advdec line opened at the black channel's resistance then fell through that mid-channel level? That's bearish. Then see how that rise that sent the OEX to new highs and the TRAN to test that neckline was in actuality only a rise to retest that mid-channel support/resistance and that the advdec line went exactly to the top line before falling back? Link Now notice that the advdec line is at the bottom support of the black channel. Unless it's going to break down or else just follow that line sideways lower the rest of the day, this could be a bounce point. Now we're already back to a point at which bears should be protective of positions but hopeful for a breakdown here.

And this is why I watch the advdec line. Things looked so bullish several times today, but the advdec line wasn't confirming that bullishness. At all.

Jonathan Levinson : 11/15/2005 2:03:41 PM

QQQQ flirts with yesterday's spike low at 40.60, current session low 40.59: Link

Linda Piazza : 11/15/2005 2:02:25 PM

And there was the new low on the TRAN.

What a trap that send-up was. The advdec line never turned positive and all that was happening was that the mighty TRAN was rising to test a neckline for an already-confirmed H&S. Bears are still not in the clear as, unless the TRAN is going to start trendine lower, it will soon be testing support that might hold it, from its current 4021 level down to its 4010-ish downside target for its H&S.

The OEX tests its 10-minute 100/130-ema's, at 568.34 and 567.81, respectively.

Jeff Bailey : 11/15/2005 2:02:06 PM

02:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jane Fox : 11/15/2005 2:01:31 PM

The line in the sand I drew on the ES and VIX charts has been broken now.

Jeff Bailey : 11/15/2005 1:58:49 PM

VXN.X 14.78 +0.68% .... off session/weekly low of 14.15. WEEKLY Pivot just ahead at 15.01, which VXN.X has been either side of on Monday and today.

Jeff Bailey : 11/15/2005 1:57:16 PM

VIX.X 12.10 -0.65% ... has reversed sharply from post-12:00 low of 11:70.

Jane Fox : 11/15/2005 1:56:17 PM

TICKS falling again to -931.

Jonathan Levinson : 11/15/2005 1:56:12 PM

Session low for NQ here at 1653.5, QQQQ 1 cent away at 40.63.

Linda Piazza : 11/15/2005 1:53:56 PM

Advdec line still headed down, although slowing its descent as it tests support. The TRAN hangs just above the low of the day, with the TRAN currently at 4028.38.

Jonathan Levinson : 11/15/2005 1:52:59 PM

Volume breadth is -1.2:1 on the NYSE, -1.3:1 on the Nasdaq here.

Linda Piazza : 11/15/2005 1:49:40 PM

Big test now in the TRAN. We had the failure at the neckline of the confirmed H&S, but we haven't seen the new low and the follow-through below that. The advdec line is showing that the move is overdone to the downside on the five-minute chart, so watching for a potential bounce. Market bears want to see a new TRAN low of the day before that happens, though. TRAN at 4029.69 as I type.

Jane Fox : 11/15/2005 1:49:34 PM

AD volume breaking to new daily lows and although the AD line is not making new daily lows at -691 it is bearish. This along with the TICKS hitting -1000 gives me enough evidence to say the bears have the reins. THis is the first time today I feel safe saying this.

Jonathan Levinson : 11/15/2005 1:47:45 PM

QQQQ has dropped to test the lower 30 min channel. That would suggest it's time to buy, except that the 30 min cycle (and the daily, and the weekly) are overbought and due for a decline- whether corrective or impulsive, it means that there's room for that channel bottom to move lower so long as the price holds below 72 SMA resistance. Link

Linda Piazza : 11/15/2005 1:47:39 PM

TRAN at 4029.13, testing the bottom of its range today, with the previous low at 4027.85 and with significant support--Keltner and pivot--down to 4027.

Jeff Bailey : 11/15/2005 1:47:10 PM

December Crude Oil (cl05z) with conventional May low settlement to August high settlement retracement as well as previously al_rted to h/s top pattern, with objective met last week at this Link

Jane Fox : 11/15/2005 1:45:53 PM

TICKS -1000 bears gaining speed.

Jane Fox : 11/15/2005 1:44:32 PM

ES (SPX) spikes below the red trendline but so far the VIX has not confirmed it.

Jane Fox : 11/15/2005 1:43:53 PM

TICKS -800

Jane Fox : 11/15/2005 1:43:26 PM

Here is my line in the sand for the bulls and bears. If the ES falls below this red trendline and is confirmed by the VIX above it then the bears are gaining momentum. Link

Linda Piazza : 11/15/2005 1:42:53 PM

TRAN dropping away from its neckline test, but no new low of the day yet. Advdec line dropping from its test of the resistance band I kept mentioning.

Jonathan Levinson : 11/15/2005 1:41:46 PM

Ten year notes hold their gains, TNX down 5.1 bps here at 4.553%, 13-week bills their losses with IRX up 2.8 bps at 3.91%.

Jeff Bailey : 11/15/2005 1:36:21 PM

UTStarcom (UTSI) $8.11 ... still halted with news pending. No update since 12:47:05

Linda Piazza : 11/15/2005 1:35:49 PM

Advdec line still dropping away from its test of the resistance band I talked about earlier.

Linda Piazza : 11/15/2005 1:35:21 PM

TRAN pausing in what could be an appropriate right-shoulder level for the inverse H&S visible on its five-minute chart. At 4037.69 currently, it probably has to drop to a new low of the day to get anything bearish going and probably has to climb above 4050 and sustain it to get anything bullish going.

Jonathan Levinson : 11/15/2005 1:31:28 PM

QQQQ breaks back below broken triangle support and is now breaking the rising triangle support line, reversing the prior high-volume breakout and confirming how tricky the tape can be this week. Below the 40.78 72-SMA, the 30 and 60 min channel bias shifts to the downside, if the bears can hold the price below it for 5-10 minutes. Link

Linda Piazza : 11/15/2005 1:30:19 PM

The TRAN has tested that neckline for its confirmed H&S, 15-minute chart, and now turns down. This is the bears' chance, if they can drive the TRAN below about 4027 and keep it there. There's lots of Keltner support in that 4027-4032 zone, however. TRAN at 4037.29 as I type.

Jane Fox : 11/15/2005 1:29:36 PM

TICKS -800

Linda Piazza : 11/15/2005 1:28:57 PM

The advdec line is dropping to test the support that has been holding it up since that surge on the 10:45 candle (15-minute), with that support now at -780. That particular line served as resistance the early part of the morning. Advdec line at -809 as I type.

Jeff Bailey : 11/15/2005 1:27:54 PM

Human Genome Science (HGSI) $9.32 +0.43% ... DJ - Reports interim results pf Phase II trial of its Albuferon in combination with Ribavirin in treatment of Hepatitits C patients was safe and well tolerated.

The U.S. trial involves patients who failed to respond to a previous interferon alpha-based treatment regimen. The Phase 2 trial's objectives are to evaluate the safety and tolerability of the Albuferon combo in such patients and gauge the drug's effectiveness.

According to Human Genome, Albuferon with ribavirin was well tolerated. And at the end of 24 weeks, 30% of the patients had no detectable hepatitis C RNA viral load.

Jeff Bailey : 11/15/2005 1:23:30 PM

WellPoint Health (WLP) $75.90 +1.93% ... probes WEEKLY R2 ($75.96) after move above Nov. $75 Call resistance. Nov. $75 Calls $1.20 on volume of 193 and open interest of 10,985.

Dec. $75 Calls (WLP-LO) $2.70 are second-most active 80:9,852

Jeff Bailey : 11/15/2005 1:21:36 PM

VIX.X 11.80 -3.11% ... probes Friday's lows after second-consecutive session test of WEEKLY Pivot

Jonathan Levinson : 11/15/2005 1:20:30 PM

Volume breadth +1.2:1 on the NYSE, +1.05:1 on the Nasdaq.

Linda Piazza : 11/15/2005 1:20:19 PM

Advdec line testing that resistance band, still, finding resistance at about -250 over the last hour, but finding support at about -600. It's at -508 as I type.

Linda Piazza : 11/15/2005 1:18:21 PM

And there's a H&S on the TRAN's one-minute chart, part of a right shoulder of an inverse H&S on the five-minute, with that inverse H&S bringing the TRAN up to test the neckline of a large, already confirmed H&S on its 15-minute chart. See what I mean?

Jeff Bailey : 11/15/2005 1:17:00 PM

December Heating Oil (ho05z) $1.72 -0.57% ... just undercut Friday's lows, trades Friday's settlement.

Jeff Bailey : 11/15/2005 1:16:14 PM

December Unleaded (hu05z) $1.48 -1.33% ... reverses earlier gains. Challenges Friday's settlement.

Jonathan Levinson : 11/15/2005 1:13:57 PM

QQQQ slips back below 40.80, back to the old rising triangle horizontal support at 40.79, below which the move becomes a throwover/headfake: Link

Jeff Bailey : 11/15/2005 1:13:35 PM

01:00 Internals found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 11/15/2005 1:09:38 PM

The OEX's 15-minute Keltner resistance held again into the close of the last 15-minute period, but the OEX is also above the first support, at 569.89. As long as it's closing 15-minute periods above that, it may go on challenging that resistance and bumping it higher, bearish price/RSI or Keltner-style divergence or not. Bulls have had warning to keep raising their stops with any OEX move higher, but they still haven't needed that warning. Keep a watch on the TRAN, however, as much of this has come courtesy of a TRAN move back up to retest that neckline of its confirmed H&S. The TRAN has followed Keltner S/R quite nicely today, and it's now facing Keltner and other types of resistance. Let's see if the bulls forming that inverse H&S or the bears who were able to confirm the larger regular H&S will win the day. I'm seeing bearish divergences everywhere I look, but no pullbacks that mean anything yet, and it feels already as if it's been a long, long day.

Jeff Bailey : 11/15/2005 1:04:35 PM

01:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 11/15/2005 1:04:21 PM

The TRAN is now moving into a resistance band from 4045 up to 4048.62, the location of the neckline for its confirmed H&S. TRAN at 4044.55 as I type. There's a hint of a new inverse H&S on the bottom of the TRAN's five-minute chart, steeply sloping rising neckline, now crossing at about 4046, just under the neckline of the larger regular H&S. It's a battle. I absolutely hate the days when you see conflicting bearish and bullish formations like these.

Jonathan Levinson : 11/15/2005 1:03:38 PM

The Treasury's 24B 4-week bill auction has just completed, with indirect bidders taking a relatively small 3.45B of the total. The high-rate was 3.93% and the bills yielded 3.997%, with 2.14 bids submitted for each awarded.

Jeff Bailey : 11/15/2005 1:02:35 PM

Avon Products (AVP) $25.57 -5.57% Link ... Company's CEO saying 2006 "a transition year."

Jeff Bailey : 11/15/2005 12:59:42 PM

Lockheed Martin (LMT) $60.50 +1.17% Link ... Gets $2.9B F/A-22 pact from US Air Force.

Linda Piazza : 11/15/2005 12:58:43 PM

SPX Keltner outlook, 15-minute chart: Resistance, currently at 570.40, has been holding on 15-minute closes, but so has support at 569.76 on 15-minute closes. Next resistance 571.17. Next support, 568.74-569.15. OEX at 570.20 as I type. Bearish price/RSI diverence and Keltner divergence on today's high, but it can still be erased.

Jonathan Levinson : 11/15/2005 12:58:40 PM

Breadth is weak, with 161 new lows on the NYSE vs. 75 new highs, 1580 decliers vs. 1565 advancers, though volume breadth leads 1.18:1. On the Nasdaq, New highs outnumber new lows 71:52, while there are 1653 decliners vs. 1250 advancers. Advancing volume leads 1.15:1 over declining volume.

Linda Piazza : 11/15/2005 12:54:34 PM

Advdec line still testing that resistance band with the band's top level perhaps now having risen to +120. Advdec line now at -352.

Jonathan Levinson : 11/15/2005 12:48:52 PM

US Pension Benefit Guaranty Corp. (PBGC) confirms that exposure to underfunded pension plans rose from 96B to 108B while its deficit shrank from 23.5B to 23.1B. In 2005, the PBGC has paid out 3.7B, up 700M from its 2004 payout.

Jeff Bailey : 11/15/2005 12:47:05 PM

UTStarcom (UTSI) ... DJ - Company confirms deal with Chinese city. (details to follow)

Jeff Bailey : 11/15/2005 12:45:36 PM

Kroger (KR) $19.29 -0.36% ... Union ratifies 42-month contract.

Jeff Bailey : 11/15/2005 12:42:09 PM

UTStarcom (UTSI) $8.11 +23.43% ... halted for trade.

Linda Piazza : 11/15/2005 12:38:57 PM

The RLX has just reached a 38.2% retracement of the day's steep decline, it's climb so far looking bear flag-like. The RLX has not yet broken down out of that bear flag, however, if that's what it is, and a drive up to the 50% retracement at 461-461.38 remains possible as long as the RLX is finding support on five-minute closes on a Keltner line currently at 458.50. The RLX is at 458.58 as I type. If it rises again, watch how it behaves near 459.60, that 38.2% retracement.

Jonathan Levinson : 11/15/2005 12:38:27 PM

QQQQ has edged back 8 cents from its 40.90 print, the short cycle indicators slowing just below overbought territory. Support now appears atop the sideways range at 40.80, and volume has tapered off on the pullback. Link

Linda Piazza : 11/15/2005 12:35:34 PM

Keltner style bearish divergences are beginning to show up, too. As with any sort of bearish divergence, they should be used by bears as an invitation to snug up stops, but shouldn't be used by bears as a sign that there's going to be an imminent rollover. I'm still watching the TRAN for guidance.

Jane Fox : 11/15/2005 12:35:15 PM

The AD line was able to peek above 0 to +26 (TS values) but that was it.

Jeff Bailey : 11/15/2005 12:35:36 PM

Amazon.com (AMZN) $45.08 +5.99% Link ... higher after Standard and Poors announced the company will replace AT&T (T) $19.84 -0.35% Link in the S&P 500 ($SPX.X) 1,237.02 +0.26% Link .

Linda Piazza : 11/15/2005 12:30:58 PM

TRAN drawing ever closer to a test of that neckline from its confirmed H&S. TRAN at 4043.82 and that neckline is at about 4048.63 or so.

Linda Piazza : 11/15/2005 12:29:33 PM

Make or break time for the advdec line, as it's finally risen to test the resistance band roughly from -550 to -250 or maybe even up to -50. The advdec line is now at -462.

Linda Piazza : 11/15/2005 12:23:57 PM

Big price/RSI divergence showing up now on the TRAN's five-minute chart, as the TRAN draws closer to a test of the neckline of its confirmed H&S on the 15-minute chart, with that neckline now at about 4048.61 and with the TRAN at 4042.81.

Linda Piazza : 11/15/2005 12:22:38 PM

The OEX is at a best-fit descending trendline off the 7/28 high, ignoring part of the candle shadow from 8/10.

Linda Piazza : 11/15/2005 12:21:24 PM

SPX at the descending trendline off the August high.

Jonathan Levinson : 11/15/2005 12:19:20 PM

QQQQ breaks 30 min channel resistance, but there's the potential for strong followthrough if the last 2 1/2 days' range becomes a launchpad for a short squeeze. Link

Jane Fox : 11/15/2005 12:18:44 PM

Both AD volume and AD line are pushing higher and AD line is almost above 0.

Linda Piazza : 11/15/2005 12:18:07 PM

TRAN has confirmed a triple bottom formation, and it climbing now toward the neckline of its confirmed H&S, at about 4048.51, with the TRAN at 4041.94.

Jonathan Levinson : 11/15/2005 12:17:44 PM

Volume breadth is up to +1.3 on the NYSE, +1.4:1 on the Nasdaq.

Linda Piazza : 11/15/2005 12:16:23 PM

New high on the OEX.

Jonathan Levinson : 11/15/2005 12:15:31 PM

QQQQ broke horizontal resistance on a pop in volume, and is holding penny above it now at 40.80. The wavelet cycle peaked on the break and is rolling over with the pullback, while the short cycles continue their rise, just entering overbought territory. With much of the range from the past session and a half now underwater, there's the potential for a sharp squeeze higher... or a quick reversal down if the expected buyers don't take up the slack. Still a tricky spot, but turning more bullish with price holding the highs. Link

Jeff Bailey : 11/15/2005 12:12:57 PM

12:00 Internals found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 11/15/2005 12:10:13 PM

Equal high on the OEX or prelude to a stronger climb? The 15-minute chart shows price/RSI bearish divergence that can still be erased, but that exists so far. The advdec line has not yet touched nor broken above the strongest resistance and its move higher is beginning to look overdone on the very short term, although it has continued to climb off the low of the day. The TRAN hasn't done much of anything after falling and confirming its H&S on its 15-minute chart. I think it's possible that it could still rise to retest that trendline, but I don't necessarily see evidence that it's probable that it will do so yet. So, there's just a lot of mixed evidence out there.

Jonathan Levinson : 11/15/2005 12:05:45 PM

Nice entry, Mark.

Jonathan Levinson : 11/15/2005 12:03:59 PM

Volume breadth +1.1:1 on the NYSE, +1.2:1 on the Nasdaq.

Jeff Bailey : 11/15/2005 12:03:55 PM

12:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 11/15/2005 12:02:01 PM

OEX approaching yesterday's 570.14 high, just a few cents away now.

Linda Piazza : 11/15/2005 12:00:19 PM

Advdec line moving up again. It's continued to hold the support of the line that was providing resistance earlier today, with that support now at -1440 on 15-minute closes. Stronger resistance in the -680 to -100 range.

The TRAN is bouncing up to test resistance that continues to hold, so far, at 4035.69 on 15-minute closes. Stronger resistance at the neckline of its confirmed h&S, with that neckline at about 4045.96 currently. TRAN at 4035.38 as I type.

Jonathan Levinson : 11/15/2005 12:00:09 PM

Session high for QQQQ at 40.80, exceeding the previous high by 1 penny: Link

Jeff Bailey : 11/15/2005 11:56:06 AM

UTStarcom (UTSI) $7.50 +13% ... surging on CNBC report that company saying it will announce major deal with China.

Linda Piazza : 11/15/2005 11:54:06 AM

TRAN dropping to a slight new low of the day. Watch for a potential bounce or for a rollover. So far, it's trying to bounce, but not far yet.

Linda Piazza : 11/15/2005 11:44:29 AM

So far, the OEX has been holding five-minute support at a Keltner line currently at 569.39, but that line is beginning to flatten now and the OEX is beginning to pierce it during the five-minute periods. The next support that had looked fairly firm is beginning to soften underneath, as I mentioned that it might be in an earlier post.

Unfortunately, I see the TRAN and the advdec line both nailed down inside narrow and flattened Keltner channels on their one-minute charts, showing what a range-bound market it's been over the last few minutes.

So, I would advise you to ignore all the chop and not try to anticipate a breakout or read too much into all these updates. Please don't take them as encouragement to go one way or the other, because I don't think a direction has been settled yet, and I see a possibility that the day might be rather directionless. I hope it's not. I'd rather see a decline than a directionless day.

Jonathan Levinson : 11/15/2005 11:36:17 AM

QQQQ tracing a possible rising triangle intraday, with a pattern of higher lows below horizontal resistance: Link A violation of the highs on a surge in volume would suggest a breakout, while a print below 40.67 should invalidate the rising intraday trendline.

Linda Piazza : 11/15/2005 11:32:49 AM

In my 9:48:17 post today, I cautioned that traders should remember that possible doji scenario for the day. It's disheartening to think that the OEX and other indices could spend the rest of the day just chopping around within their previously established ranges or almost within them, and then end the day very near where they started it, but that action remains a possibility. Either a doji day or spinning top--something indicative of indecision--or an actual pullback still remain the most likely outcomes of yesterday's action, but I think we still have to keep the TRAN's action on the radar screen. So far, it's holding above that strong support in the 4027-4028 range, but it's not moving far off it, either. The TRAN is at 4030.92 as I type.

Jeff Bailey : 11/15/2005 11:31:56 AM

Sell Program Premium ... DIA $107.24, SPX 1,234.72, QQQQ $40.72

Jeff Bailey : 11/15/2005 11:29:27 AM

Uruguay launches $200M, 17-year amortizing bond to yield 8.2%

10-year yield ($TNX.X) currently down 5.3bp to yield 4.551%.

30-year yield ($TYX.X) currently down 6.2 bp at 4.734%

Jonathan Levinson : 11/15/2005 11:28:00 AM

Headlines:

BERNANKE: LARGE FEDERAL BUDGET DEFICITS ARE A PROBLEM

BERNANKE: U.S. CURRENT ACCOUNT GAP MUST COME DOWN OVER TIME

Jane Fox : 11/15/2005 11:27:54 AM

If any of you are thinking bullish today I would rethink it. Link

Linda Piazza : 11/15/2005 11:25:35 AM

There's a little H&S on the OEX's one-minute chart, head at the just-reached high, neckline at about 569.20, right shoulder extending a bit too long in time. Needs to confirm if it's going to. I'm sure that I could look somewhere and find an inverse H&S, too, as it's been that kind of trading environment lately. I hate it when I see these competing formations set up because it means that bulls and bears haven't settled up which one is going to lead the day yet, and the rest of us are caught in the chop.

As I typed, I think the OEX traded too long and that the formation has fizzled out, but the OEX does head down slightly.

Jonathan Levinson : 11/15/2005 11:22:44 AM

Yesterday saw very light volume for QQQQ at 53.7M shares- just over half of the 102.3M share average. Today is looking just as light, with 22.4M QQQQs traded so far. Slightly over half of that volume is positive, but volume breadth has been flip-flopping and remains effectively neutral today.

Linda Piazza : 11/15/2005 11:20:46 AM

OEX Keltner picture, five-minute chart: The OEX found support at first Keltner support, at a line currently at 569.22 on five-minute closes, and rises toward resistance, from 569.63-569.81 on five-minute closes. The next support is at 568.44-568.80, and may be softening slightly. The move looked overdone according to RSI to the upside on the first test of the five-minute resistance a few minutes ago. I'm watching to see if there will be price/RSI bearish divergence on a second test, if it occurs. The TRAN is sitting near its LOD, so I'm not sure what will happen until the TRAN moves.

Jeff Bailey : 11/15/2005 11:15:35 AM

11:00 Internals found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 11/15/2005 11:14:26 AM

The TRAN has likely invalidated its inverse H&S and may be headed down to test the day's low. Besides Keltner support, it's got a weekly pivot and a daily S2 just below the day's low, so that's strong support and it will be significant, if broken, too. Still up to the TRAN, according to my thinking.

Linda Piazza : 11/15/2005 11:10:49 AM

Did "they" do it again, trapping bulls? It's possible. Still watching the TRAN for guidance, but it's close to invalidating its inverse H&S on its 1-minute chart.

Linda Piazza : 11/15/2005 11:09:39 AM

If the TRAN falls much lower than 4030-4032, it's likely invalidating its inverse H&S formation. TRAN at 4033.71 as I type.

Jeff Bailey : 11/15/2005 11:08:51 AM

11:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 11/15/2005 11:08:42 AM

OEX Keltner picture, five-minute chart: The OEX hit five-minute reisstance at 569.81 on five-minute closes. Next support at 569.16 on the same closes, with stronger support at 568.41-568.65. OEX at 569.51 as I type. Movement registered overdone to the upside on the five-minute chart, but there's been no bearish price/RSI divergence yet.

Jonathan Levinson : 11/15/2005 11:07:10 AM

Headline:

BERNANKE: CONGRESSIONAL OK NOT NEEDED FOR INFLATION TARGET

Jonathan Levinson : 11/15/2005 11:04:55 AM

Volume breadth is neutral here, -1.06:1 on the NYSE and +1.06:1 on the Nasdaq. Unlike the SOX, QQQQ has so far made a lower high by 2 cents on the surge. Link

Linda Piazza : 11/15/2005 11:04:39 AM

I'm still watching the TRAN for guidance. I said earlier, in my 10:51:59 post, that I wouldn't be surprised to see it pop up to 4040, and it did hit 4040.25 at 10:54, just a few minutes later. It has since dropped back, currently at 4036.60, but it's perhaps forming an inverse H&S at the bottom of its drop, neckline at about 4040.60 currently. If that's confirmed, the upside target would bring the TRAN back up to retest the neckline of its bigger regular H&S on its 15-minute chart, with that neckline at about 4048 currently. Watching the TRAN may give us clues as whether the TRAN will actually rise high enough to retest that neckline, likely bringing other indices higher with it, or whether it will fail to confirm that inverse H&S and turn lower again.

Jonathan Levinson : 11/15/2005 11:02:32 AM

Ten year notes have reversed most of yesterday's losses, with ZN futures up 15/64 here to 108 1/4, TNX down 3.3 bps to 4.571%. 13-week rates are holding a 2 bp gain at 3.902%, flattening the yield curve.

Jane Fox : 11/15/2005 10:58:14 AM

VIX is making new daily lows confirming ES's new daily highs. Once the AD line gets itself above 0 the bulls will be breathing a lot easier.

Linda Piazza : 11/15/2005 10:56:47 AM

Advdec line continuing its climb above the resistance that held it back earlier today. It's still not strong, and has further and likely stronger resistance higher, but that's not holding back the OEX, which has soundly broken above the descending regression channel in which it traded off yesterday's high. Watching the advdec line with respect to resistance provided an al_rt that something different was happening, but this kind of extravangant OEX action with respect to the action on the advdec line continues to be a relatively new phenomenon over the last couple of weeks. Yesterday's high was 570.14. Current OEX value 569.84. Advdec line due for a pullback now.

Jane Fox : 11/15/2005 10:56:27 AM

AD volume is now positive and to new daily highs but the AD line is still below 0 so although the bulls have taken a chunk out of the bears hold they still do not have control.

Jonathan Levinson : 11/15/2005 10:53:49 AM

The SOX blows past its earlier high, rsing to challenge the 467 level while QQQQ tests its opening spike highs, currently +.06 at 40.77.

Jeff Bailey : 11/15/2005 10:52:45 AM

Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) $26.50 +6.0% Link ... Among this morning's most actives and sharply higher after the chip maker said it and Sun Microsystems (SUNW) $3.68 -0.27% Link announced that the Tokyo Institute of Technology (Tokyo Tech), one of the world's leading technical institutes, is creating Japan's largest supercomputer on a foundation of Sun. The system is based on Sun Fire(TM) x64 (x86, 64-bit) servers with 10,480 AMD Opteron(TM) processor cores [totaling more than 50 trillion floating point operations per second (teraFLOPS)], Sun and NEC storage technologies and NEC's integration expertise as well as ClearSpeed's Advance(TM) accelerator boards.

Linda Piazza : 11/15/2005 10:51:58 AM

The TRAN confirmed a double-bottom formation on its five-minute chart by less than 50 cents, but it has since dropped back slightly below the 4036.75 confirmation level. It certainly didn't shoot higher since that confirmation. I wouldn't be surprised to see it rise to about 4040, however. It's at 4036.53 as I type.

Linda Piazza : 11/15/2005 10:49:23 AM

Advdec line testing that resistance that held it back earlier today. It's above it now, although not yet on a 15-minute close, with this 15-minute period just begun. The OEX has bumped all the way up to test the day's high. Advdec line at -1493 as I type, resistance that had previously held on a 15-minute close at -1628, further resistance from -1375 to -1100.

Jeff Bailey : 11/15/2005 10:48:47 AM

Pfizer (PFE) $22.03 -0.98% Link ... among this morning's most active after the company said its experimental cholosterol drug Torcetrapib, combined with its Lipitor, significantly increased levels of "good" cholesterol while significantly lowering "bad" cholesterol.

The results of two mid-stage, or Phase II, studies presented at the annual meeting of the American Heart Association in Dallas were promising enough to prompt Pfizer to continue into the final stage of the development process.

However, the study also showed high doses of its Lipitor drug showed no better results at preventing recurrent heart attacks and heart-related deaths than regular doses of the competing drug Zocor.

Jane Fox : 11/15/2005 10:47:54 AM

TICKS +800.

Jonathan Levinson : 11/15/2005 10:47:13 AM

The lack of range in QQQQ this morning has caused the 30 and 60 min cycle oscillators to stall in their upphases while the channels expand. 30/60 min support is at 40.53-.54, resistance at 40.85-.88. Link

Linda Piazza : 11/15/2005 10:46:01 AM

The SOX broke to a new high of the day, pulling back slightly as I type. It hasn't been able to top Friday's high yet, however, with that high at 468.32 and with the SOX currently at 466.30.

Linda Piazza : 11/15/2005 10:43:25 AM

TRAN still rising, but in a choppy manner that's leaving lots of candles shadows spiking above and belwo small-bodied candles on the five-minute chart.

Jeff Bailey : 11/15/2005 10:42:40 AM

10 Most Active ... CPST $4.33 +37.02%, SPY $123.58 -0.08%, GDT $62.56 +8.32%, QQQQ $40.70 -0.02%, JNJ $62.68 +3.58%, JDSU $2.14 -1.83%, MSFT $27.36 +0.33%, PFE $22.05 -0.89%, EWJ $12.03 -1.23%, AMD $26.48 +5.96%

Linda Piazza : 11/15/2005 10:42:15 AM

The OEX pierced the descending regression channel off yesterday's high, but didn't close the just-completed 15-minute period above it. It's testing it again, however, with the top of that channel at about 568.66 on 10- and 15-minute closes, and with the OEX at 568.85 as I type.

Jane Fox : 11/15/2005 10:42:44 AM

ES made a new daily high but the VIX did not make a new daily low so the new high could be a head fake.

Jeff Bailey : 11/15/2005 10:38:08 AM

Buy Program Premium ... DIA $107.21, SPX 1,233.56, QQQQ $40.72

Jeff Bailey : 11/15/2005 10:37:33 AM

Dr. Bernanke prepared comments for today's confirmation hearing.

Will operate "strictly independent" of politics if confirmed.

Continuity with Greenspan policy will be "top priority."

Keep Fed focus on long-term price stability

Supports more transparent fed policy process

Back inflation target only with Fed consensus

Target would stabilize inflation expectations

Target needs more study, extensive discussion

To work on enhancing financial system stability

Jonathan Levinson : 11/15/2005 10:37:09 AM

Stepping away for a few minutes.

Linda Piazza : 11/15/2005 10:36:41 AM

We have a pattern established in the advdec line now. For the last 45 minutes, the advdec line has been finding resistance on 15-minute closes at a line now at -1644. Because the advdec line features such big numbers, the support and resistance levels move quickly when the advdec line does, too. So, if the advdec line bounces, as it's been doing as I typed this post, that resistance line moves up quickly, too. Now, it's moved up to -1635, for example, just in the few minutes it took me to type this, and could be near -1600 by the time it's tested again. Advdec line at -1800, QCharts value, as I type.

Linda Piazza : 11/15/2005 10:33:10 AM

One reason that I don't always watch pivots is that they have an unerring tendency to show up at important levels I'm already watching. I showed you a TRAN chart in my 10:19:40 post, showing the Keltner support that was showing up and holding up the TRAN. The weekly pivot is also right in that area, at 4027 according to QCharts, and the daily S2 is at 4028. The TRAN is at 4028.85 as I type.

Jonathan Levinson : 11/15/2005 10:32:15 AM

Headlines:

FED'S MOSKOW: ECONOMY COULD ADJUST TO HOUSE PRICE SLOWING

MOSKOW: FED SHOULD STAY REACTIVE, NOT PRE-EMPTIVE

Jane Fox : 11/15/2005 10:30:29 AM

I see slso the AD volume has now retraced 50% of its daily range so the bears are losing a little momentum.

Linda Piazza : 11/15/2005 10:30:24 AM

The OEX has established a descending regression channel off yesterday's high. As QCharts draws it, the top of that channel is at about 568.72, important on 10- or 15-minute closes. The OEX has spiked outside this channel as it's been forming, but always closed 10- and 15-minute periods below it. OEX at 568.40 as I type.

Jane Fox : 11/15/2005 10:28:31 AM

A bullish development - ES made a double bottom and the VIX did not make a double top but a lower high.

Linda Piazza : 11/15/2005 10:25:22 AM

Here we go again, with a bounce in the OEX far more exuberant than that in the advdec line. As I type, the OEX is pulling back below the five-minute 100-ema again, almost back to the trendline that had described the bottom of the triangle.

Jane Fox : 11/15/2005 10:22:47 AM

AS long as the AD line stays as bearish as it is and the AD volume continues to make new daily lows the bears have reins. Watch the volume for it is the key. Link

Jeff Bailey : 11/15/2005 10:22:11 AM

10:00 Internals found at this Link

Monday's Internals found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 11/15/2005 10:20:28 AM

Volume breadth is down to -1.8:1 on the NYSE, -1.3:1 on the Nasdaq as QQQQ returns to the lows, currently -.07 at 40.64, session low 2 cents below.

Linda Piazza : 11/15/2005 10:19:39 AM

Here's the TRAN's H&S neckline superimposed on a Keltner chart. Note the Keltner support that's been steadying the TRAN over the last few minutes. The TRAN hasn't been able to bounce, though. Bears want to see the TRAN either just keel over, which it sometimes does, plunging through support levels, or else find resistance at that neckline. Link

Linda Piazza : 11/15/2005 10:15:36 AM

The OEX's five-minute 100/130-ema's may be playing a part in the resistance being encountered at the bottom of the OEX's triangle. Those averates are at 568.42 and 568.23, respectively. OEX at 568.11 as I type.

Jonathan Levinson : 11/15/2005 10:11:37 AM

QQQQ broke 72 SMA support but bottomed above yesterday's 40.60 low, currently bouncing back to the earlier 40.75 range and stalling the rollover in the short cycle. Price holds within yesterday's sideways range, still no break with the intraday cycle channels sliding sideways. Link

Linda Piazza : 11/15/2005 10:10:01 AM

The OEX is back inside its triangle again. Until now, it hasn't been able to close a five-minute period inside it, and it's going to be touch and go as to whether it does this time, either. That triangle's support is at about 568.19 now, with the OEX at 568.22 as I type.

Jonathan Levinson : 11/15/2005 10:09:46 AM

My IB feed just blinked out for about 1 minute. Don't forget your stops.

Linda Piazza : 11/15/2005 10:05:00 AM

OEX bouncing hard up to the former support of its triangle. The advdec line isn't too healthy, but bouncing, too, and the TRAN is bouncing from that support I just mentioned. These bounces to retest broken resistance are natural and to be expected, but lately, the resistance hasn't held, so the bounces scare bears. That's especially true on the OEX, when the bounces have often been excessive compared to what the advdec line is doing, and bears are often stopped.

Jonathan Levinson : 11/15/2005 10:04:17 AM

Text of Bernanke's testimony at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 11/15/2005 10:02:44 AM

10:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 11/15/2005 10:02:34 AM

Headlines:

10:00am BERNANKE SUPPORTS TREND TO MORE TRANSPARENT FED

10:00am BERNANKE PLEDGES TO BE INDEPENDENT OF POLITICAL INFLUENCE

10:00am BERNANKE: WILL MAINTAIN FED FOCUS ON PRICE STABILITY

10:00am BERNANKE: KEEPING GREENSPAN POLICY AND STRATEGY TOP PRIORITY

10:00am BERNANKE: INFLATION TARGET CONSISTENT WITH FED'S MANDATE

10:00am BERNANKE: NO MOVE UNTIL FED CONSENSUS ON INFLATION TARGETING

Linda Piazza : 11/15/2005 10:02:07 AM

The TRAN has now confirmed a larger H&S than the ones I was watching yesterday, this on its 15-minute chart, with a neckline at about 4047. The downside target would be about 4010. The TRAN is at 4029.06 as I type, at potential Keltner support that extends down to 4024 or so. It's possible this support could bounce it back to retest that neckline, so watch for that possibility. When the TRAN investors finally give up, it sometimes moves quickly, so it's possible it won't bounce much, but that's if investors in TRAN stocks are weak-enough hands and give up quickly.

Jonathan Levinson : 11/15/2005 10:01:30 AM

The Fed announces a 5.25B overnight repo resulting in a 1.25B net add for the day. But demand rose for the money, with the stop out rate up to 4.08 on treasury collateral, a new high for this tightening cycle.

Jane Fox : 11/15/2005 10:01:05 AM

AD volume and Ad line continue to make new daily lows.

Jeff Bailey : 11/15/2005 9:59:38 AM

Guidant (GDT) $62.46 +8.15% Link ... #2 most active behind CPST Link (see 09:40:12).

Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) $62.15 +2.71% Link saying it has agreed to acquire GDT for $21.5 billion in cash and stock under revised terms that value the maker of implantable heart care devices. The revised terms are about $4 billion less that last year's original offer.

Linda Piazza : 11/15/2005 9:54:58 AM

The OEX may be at one potential bounce point, or approaching it. Next resistance at 568.25-568.55 region, near the bottom of the triangle that it had formed, so testing that triangle's former support to see if it holds as resistance. If this is going to be a cascade-lower type day, the OEX may not steady here at all.

Linda Piazza : 11/15/2005 9:52:05 AM

I'm having difficulty with my mail this morning, so if you've emailed me, I'm not ignoring you.

Jonathan Levinson : 11/15/2005 9:50:20 AM

The Fed has its 4B overnight repo to address in the next 10 minutes. As well, Bernanke's confirmation hearing before the Senate Banking Committee will be starting at 10AM.

Linda Piazza : 11/15/2005 9:48:16 AM

Tom Williams says "they" are vicious and will do anything to trick you, especially in the first 30 minutes of trading. If we hadn't been watching the advdec line and seeing that it was in danger of rolling down, that first push through the descending trendline off yesterday's high would have looked bullish, wouldn't it? It was a trick.

Of course, we're still in the first 30 minutes of the day, and this push down could be a trick, too, so guard bearish profits. So far, the advdec line supports the action, but remember the doji possibility for today.

Linda Piazza : 11/15/2005 9:46:30 AM

OEX testing that 567.80-ish support, now a little below it, and the advdec also just brushed through the next support I expected it to steady at. The OEX still has bounce potential and I see it bouncing just a little as I typed. Advdec line still headed down, however.

Jonathan Levinson : 11/15/2005 9:45:19 AM

QQQQ breaks back below 72 SMA support here on a burst of volume: Link

Jane Fox : 11/15/2005 9:44:52 AM

The VIX has just shot back up to new daily highs and I guess we will have to deal with VIX spikes today. THe new daily high in the VIX confirmed the new daily low in ES (SPX).

Linda Piazza : 11/15/2005 9:43:45 AM

OEX testing that triangle support now. Advdec line still declining and now beginning to dip through support. Unless both bounce soon--still not ruled out--both will have violated support. Watch OEX 567.80 or so for potential support, too.

Jonathan Levinson : 11/15/2005 9:43:20 AM

Volume breadth has weakened to -1.2:1 on the NYSE and +1.3:1 on the Nasdaq.

Jane Fox : 11/15/2005 9:41:28 AM

The VIX is now making new daily lows and below its red trendline taking some of the momentum away from the bears.

Linda Piazza : 11/15/2005 9:40:39 AM

At about 568.10, the OEX will test the bottom support of the triangle it's been forming on top of its climb. That triangle is the head and right shoulder of a now roughly shaped H&S, so support could also comb at the possible neckline of that formation, at about 567.80, if the OEX should decline that far. The advdec line is testing central support to see if it holds.

Jeff Bailey : 11/15/2005 9:41:31 AM

Capstone Turbine (CPST) $4.28 +35.44% ... my bar chart with conventional (BLUE) and high-to-low close (PINK) retracement at this Link

Last night's "Cramer last tick" was $3.53, right on the PINK 38.2%. This morning's open was right on the BLUE 38.2%. Speculators only.

Jane Fox : 11/15/2005 9:40:08 AM

Once again we have internals that are hard to read. AD volume/line are below 0 but not by much. VIX is above its bullish/bearish line in the sand and ES is below. so the bears have edge but it is could change in a heartbeat.

Jonathan Levinson : 11/15/2005 9:38:33 AM

QQQQ holds the upper end of yesterday's afternoon range as the short, 30 and 60 min cycles continue from yesterday's closing upphases: Link

Linda Piazza : 11/15/2005 9:38:16 AM

Advdec line testing support now, down to about -540, with the advdec line now at -308, QCharts value.

Linda Piazza : 11/15/2005 9:36:45 AM

Advdec line pulling back. If the OEX continues lower now, this will have been a classic case of "them," in market guru Tom Williams' words, running up the indices early on so "they" could sell into them. No guarantee that will happen, but the advdec line's action looks as if it's possible.

Jane Fox : 11/15/2005 9:34:39 AM

Referring to this chart Link , ES opens below its red trendline and VIX above.

Jonathan Levinson : 11/15/2005 9:34:24 AM

Volume breadth is +1.01:1 on the NYSE, +1.76:1 on the Nasdaq at the open.

Linda Piazza : 11/15/2005 9:33:34 AM

The OEX is breaking above the top of the triangle that's been forming on its 15-minute chart, yet the advdec line shows the possibility, but not yet the probability of a pullback.

Linda Piazza : 11/15/2005 9:31:36 AM

Slightly lower open for the OEX, but it's climbing. As it's been doing lately, the advdec line opened just above mid-channel support, but it looks as if it might drop to test that support. It already looks overdone to the upside on the 15-minute chart.

Jeff Bailey : 11/15/2005 9:31:10 AM

It's 30 degrees here in Denver Linda! Drake won't get off the bed. Brrrrr.... Link

Jonathan Levinson : 11/15/2005 9:21:05 AM

Note that retail sales were boosted by a 27.1% y-o-y increase in Gasoline Station Sales and a 13.1% increase in building material and garden equipment sales presumably resulting from reconstruction efforts following the hurricanes. Link

Jonathan Levinson : 11/15/2005 9:16:31 AM

QQQQ's 30 and 60 min cycles had turned up as of yesterday's close, but the price traction was just as weak as that on the downphases that preceded the upturn. This is common during opex week, when price distortions are more common that at other times during the month. The intraday cycle bias is to the upside this morning, barring a drop below 40.60 support.

Jonathan Levinson : 11/15/2005 8:58:46 AM

Headlines:

FED'S MOSKOW: U.S. INTEREST RATES STILL TOO LOW

MOSKOW: CONTAINING INFLATION EXPECTATIONS IS KEY

MOSKOW: UNDERLYING U.S. ECONOMY CONTINUES TO BE STRONG

MOSKOW: RISK TO UPBEAT FORECAST LIES IN ENERGY, HOME PRICES

Linda Piazza : 11/15/2005 8:57:46 AM

I feel cheated. We were promised wintry (for Dallas) weather by the time we woke. Preparing to jog the dogs at six this morning, after I'd completed the Asia/Europe report, I put on gloves since my hands get cold, and stepped outside into balmy, humid 70 degree weather. We're expecting thunderstorms instead of cold weather. The promised cold front has not reached us yet. As Marc has noted on the Futures side, the effect of this cold front sweeping down through the states on prices of crude should be watched.

Linda Piazza : 11/15/2005 9:07:25 AM

Yesterday, the OEX formed a small-bodied candle at the top of a climb, a doji and an indication of indecision. Although it doesn't always do so, the OEX usually follows such days with either another candle indicative of indecision, such as a spinning top or doji, or with an actual pullback. That's the scenario under which we'll operate today, looking for clues from the advdec line as to which it might be. Remember that a doji day often is constructed from a thrust higher and a thrust lower and a close near the open, but that there's no rule over which thrust will come first or how far it will carry. It could be a long-legged doji or a doji star. As the day ended yesterday, the OEX's 15-minute Keltner channel chart wasn't giving any clues, either, with the OEX trading right down the middle, between support and resistance. On the five-minute chart, it was forming candles along the 100/130-ema's in a straight line. There's a possible H&S with a neckline now at about 567.80, so if the OEX starts down, that's what we'll be watching first, for support or for a confirmation of the formation. If it starts up first, we'll watch the descending trendline off yesterday's high, now at about 569, for either resistance or a violation. That H&S may be reforming into a neutral triangle at the top of the climb. Equity futures have been jumping around a bit after this morning's economic releases, so it's uncertain which direction they'll be headed when it's closer to the cash open.

Jonathan Levinson : 11/15/2005 8:42:49 AM

From Greenspan's February 23, 2004 speech to the Credit Union National Association 2004 Governmental Affairs Conference Link :

One way homeowners attempt to manage their payment risk is to use fixed-rate mortgages, which typically allow homeowners to prepay their debt when interest rates fall but do not involve an increase in payments when interest rates rise. Homeowners pay a lot of money for the right to refinance and for the insurance against increasing mortgage payments. Calculations by market analysts of the "option adjusted spread" on mortgages suggest that the cost of these benefits conferred by fixed-rate mortgages can range from 0.5 percent to 1.2 percent, raising homeowners' annual after-tax mortgage payments by several thousand dollars. Indeed, recent research within the Federal Reserve suggests that many homeowners might have saved tens of thousands of dollars had they held adjustable-rate mortgages rather than fixed-rate mortgages during the past decade, though this would not have been the case, of course, had interest rates trended sharply upward.

Jane Fox : 11/15/2005 8:40:28 AM

Dateline WSJ Borrowers looking for a good deal on mortgages are starting to run out of options.

For more than a year, rates on adjustable mortgages have been rising. But traditional fixed-rate mortgages have remained a remarkably good deal for borrowers -- and have also helped keep the mortgage and housing markets chugging.

Now that last holdout is no longer looking so compelling. The reason: While still relatively low by historical standards, the fixed rate on the average 30-year mortgage is about 6.5%, its highest level in more than two years, according to HSH Associates in Pompton Plains, N.J. Rates on one-year adjustables currently average 5.29%, the highest level since April 2002.

The increases are already having a broad impact. A growing number of borrowers are shunning the risk of adjustable mortgages and some are moving to lock in rates for longer periods.

Jane Fox : 11/15/2005 8:38:56 AM

Dateline WSJ The pace of U.S. home sales is showing further signs of slowing, amid a widening gap between sellers' asking prices and the amount skittish buyers are prepared to offer, according to an industry survey, real-estate brokerage firms and housing economists.

Rising mortgage rates, higher energy costs, widespread talk about the risk of a "bubble" in housing and a surge in the number of homes on the market are among the factors behind the apparent slowdown. They have combined to make home shoppers more cautious, economists and real-estate brokers say. Buyers are taking their time to look for bargains, while many sellers have put unrealistically high price tags on their homes. That leads to a standoff, causing the number of sales to drop -- a classic ending to a period of unusually rapid house-price increases.

Jonathan Levinson : 11/15/2005 8:35:17 AM

Retail Sales -.1% vs. -.07% exp., prior revised from .2% to .3%.

Retail Sales ex-auto +.9% vs. .3% exp., prior unrevised at 1.1%.

Jonathan Levinson : 11/15/2005 8:34:17 AM

Session highs for NQ, YM and QQQQ at 1661, 10744 and 40.79 respectively.

Jonathan Levinson : 11/15/2005 8:33:52 AM

TNX is down .8 bps at 4.596%, IRX is up 2.5 bps at 3.907%.

Jonathan Levinson : 11/15/2005 8:33:14 AM

Empire State Index 22.8, est. 15.5

PPI +.7%, est. 0%

Core PPI -.3%, est. .2%.

Jonathan Levinson : 11/15/2005 8:31:37 AM

Headlines:

U.S. NOV. EMPIRE STATE EMPLOYMENT INDEX 16.9 VS 9.3 IN OCT

U.S. OCT. CRUDE GOODS PPI UP 6.7%

U.S. OCT. RETAIL SALES EXCLUDING GASOLINE FLAT

U.S. OCT. PPI ENERGY RISES 4.1%

U.S. OCT. RETAIL SALES EX-AUTOS RISE 0.9% VS. 0.3% EXPECTED

U.S. OCT. PPI AUTO PRICES FALL 3.0%

U.S. SEPT. RETAIL SALES REVISED TO RISE 0.3%

U.S. NOV. EMPIRE STATE INDEX 22.8 VS 12.1 IN OCT.

U.S. PPI UP 5.9% IN PAST 12 MONTHS

U.S. NOV. EMPIRE STATE INDEX ABOVE CONSENSUS 15.8

U.S. NOV. EMPIRE STATE PRICES PAID INDEX 60.6 VS 57.3 IN OCT

U.S. CORE PPI UP 1.9% IN PAST 12 MONTHS

U.S. NOV. EMPIRE STATE PRICES PAID INDEX AT RECORD HIGH

U.S. NOV. EMPIRE STATE EMPLOYMENT INDEX 16.9 VS 9.3 IN OCT

Jonathan Levinson : 11/15/2005 8:21:32 AM

Ten year notes are quoted -.8 bps at 4.596% as we await the 8:30 data. Crude oil is up to a 5 cent gain at 57.75.

Jonathan Levinson : 11/15/2005 7:31:40 AM

Equities are down, ES trading 1234.75, NQ 1657.5, YM 10708 and QQQQ -.03 at 40.68. Ten year notes are up 1/8 to 108 9/64, gold is down 1.90 to 467.30, silver +.023 to 7.802, crude oil -.275 to 57.425 and natgas is up .095 to 11.70.

We await the 8:30 release of the Empire State Index, est. 15.5, Retail Sales est. -.7%, ex-auto est. +.3%, and the PPI and Core PPI, est. unchanged and +.2% respectively.

Linda Piazza : 11/15/2005 6:30:09 AM

Good morning. Bourses across the globe declined last night, although some declines amounted to only a slight easing. As of 6:23 EST, gold was lower by $1.30 to $467.80, and crude, lower by $0.43 to $57.26. More details about Asian and European markets follows in succeeding paragraphs.

The Nikkei opened lower last night and closed lower, too, down 24.27 points or 0.17%, at 14,091.77. October's manufacturers' input/output price indices showed that oil and oil-related products drove up both input and output prices. Input prices rose by a greater percentage, with the resultant trade condition index falling 0.5 points. Exporters were higher, but Mitsubishi Motors Corp. did not join those exporters in gaining, continuing to lose ground after its confirmation that a Goldman Sachs unit was selling its position in the company. Mizuho Financial and some others in the sector continued lower. Chugai Pharmaceutical, Japanese distributor of Tamiflu, rebounded after Tamiflu maker Roche Holding AG denied seeing any clear evidence that its drug contributed to the death of two teens in Japan. In other stock-specific news, oil developer Inpex Corp rose, with earnings announced either during the day or after the close.

Other Asian markets declined, too. The Taiwan Weighted lost 0.87%, and South Korea's Kospi declined 0.30%. Posco dropped after announcing a Japanese share offering. Singapore's Straits Times dropped 0.61%, but Hong Kong's Hang Seng eased only 0.01%. China's Shanghai Composite fell 0.11%. October's industrial output rose 16.1% from the year-ago level. In other China news, Standards & Poors upgraded oil-producer CNOOC's rating.

European markets trade lower, with Vodafone declining after its earnings report. The Eurozone's third-quarter flash GDP rose 0.6% quarter over quarter with the yearly rate climbing to 1.5% from the previous 1.1%. However, that good news was balanced by the German Zew expectations balance for November, with that number falling against forecasts for a climb. Political uncertainties and expectations for a rate hike by the ECB weighed against the number. In the U.K., October's CPI rose 0.1% month over month and 2.3% year over year, with that year-over-year rate moderating from September's. The core CPI was 1.6% year over year, lower than September's rise.

Oil majors trended higher as this report was prepared. Vodafone dropped after the company reported a 23% decline in first-half net profit and warned that 2006 would see falling revenue and margins. Beverage maker Diageo dropped in early trading after saying that it would meet fiscal-year guidance through June but perhaps not for the first half, but then the stock climbed off its low and is currently 0.1% higher. Commerzbank dropped after announcing that it intends to take a position in a German mortgage bank. Retailers Hennes & Mauritz, Burberry Group, and Bulgari reported, with Hennes & Mauritz gaining in early trading but the other two dropping 3%.

As of 6:23 EST, the FTSE 100 had dropped 30.80 points or 0.56%, to 5,439.20. The CAC 40 was lower by only 2.33 points or 0.05%, to 4,546.12. The DAX was lower by 8.29 points or 0.16%, to 5,084.14.

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