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Jeff Bailey : 11/17/2005 1:44:39 AM

Bullish swing trade long alert At Thursday's open, place an order to buy 1/3 bullish position in shares of IntercontinentalExchange (ICE) with a LIMIT of $40.00, stop $37.05, target $49.00.

Jeff Bailey : 11/17/2005 1:44:32 AM

I will be out of the office on Monday, November 21 and will not return until Tuesday morning, November 22.

Drake (my Yellow Labrador Retriever) and I will be in Northwestern Kansas performing some "Bird Flu" tests on the male Phasianus colchicus torquatus (Chinese Ringneck Pheasant) Link with fellow members of Pheasants Forever Link .

I will report any findings of Bird Flu here in the Market Monitor on Tuesday, November 22. This may then be deemed a deductible tax item. Wouldn't it?

Jeff Bailey : 11/17/2005 12:59:26 AM

IntercontinentalExchange (ICE) $39.25 ... OK, with BOT observations overlaid, here we go! Link ... I've placed a "conventional" Day #1 retracement on Wednesday's range. Then I stacked it for two more days to the UPSIDE. Remember, I'm envisioning how BOT traded.

I also hand calculated Thursday's DAILY Pivot Levels. Anything look SIMILAR here? Yes! Some good tests now. Level by level. MACD, Stochastics, SMAs? Not all that useful for such a "young" chart.

Two BULL RISK measures. One is for a 1.25% decline from Wednesday's low. That would be a "tight stop." A second is for a $1.00 decline below Wednesday's low.

IF ICE were to trade DAILY S1, that would be TOO MUCH DIVERGENCE to the BOT history wouldn't it?

Jeff Bailey : 11/17/2005 12:21:57 AM

OK ... a little more work and HISTORY of the CBOT Holding (BOT) first days of its IPO at this Link .

Several questions on "what do you think Jeff?"

All I can do at this point is look at some "like" stocks history, see what happened, how the MARKET seemed to trade, then know what to look for, or what NOT to look for.

I show QCharts' DAILY Pivot Levels. I also show a "conventional" retracement of "Day #1" range. Then use the technique of "stacking" this retracement.

This afternoon (Wednesday) we noticed some "overlap" for "Day #2" when the BOT broke above its Day #1 38.2% retracement, as well as its DAILY Pivot. For now, let's just say that was an early signal for bullishness.

Now, on DAY #2 of trade for the BOT, early that day, it undercut its IPO day (Day #1) low by $1.00, or 1.25%. Quite a bit of trading in ICE (which BOT provides some possible history for) on Wednesday, and Wednesday's extended session.

Tomorrow morning, for ICE, what MIGHT a trader be looking for?

OI Technical Staff : 11/16/2005 9:59:57 PM

The Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

Disclaimer: Stocks discussed in the Market Monitor are for educational purposes only and any analysis is not meant to imply a recommendation for or against that stock. The analysts in this forum as on any other website are prohibited by the SEC from giving any specific advice to ANY individual trader. All information posted is for ALL readers and is not meant to be directed to any individual. Our analysts cannot answer any email questions regarding any specific stock. Please do not ask and please do not take offense if requests are denied.

Results posted in the Market Monitor are hypothetical and OIN does not claim that any reader achieved these exact results. Due to the lag time between research, writing, posting, uploading, reading and execution there will be differences between the actual signal given and the fill achieved by the reader. Fills may be better or worse but in most cases they will be different. The writers will make every effort to give advance notice of intended signals and indicate potential price targets. Your individual results may vary depending on your activity level and aggressiveness. This forum is intended as an education service only. Trading involves risk and should not be attempted by anyone not ready to accept this risk. By acting on any signal in this forum you agree and personally accept this risk.

Jeff Bailey : 11/16/2005 6:11:51 PM

Closing U.S. Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 11/16/2005 6:08:23 PM

Closing Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 11/16/2005 5:21:04 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles found at this Link

Today's Activity ... Swing traded long 1/2 position in Goldcorp (GG) at the offer of $19.70, stop $18.89, target $24.00.

Swing trade sold two (2) of the WellPoint WLP Nov. $75 Calls (WLP-KO) at the bid of $0.90. Covered by the Dec. $75 Calls. No sign of $75 Call "Max Pain" for the longs today, but the shorts might be feeling it.

Jeff Bailey : 11/16/2005 4:40:15 PM

Taser Intl. (TASR) $7.35 +3.37% ... got to keep an eye on these things. Last I looked today stock was $7.10 and starts to gravitate toward the $7.50 stike. Nov $7.50 puts 5,797:6,322 and $7.50 calls 3,483:12,924.

Still holding the underlying shares with $7.50 CCs as noted last week (buy, run, write).

Jeff Bailey : 11/16/2005 4:14:19 PM

Buy Program Premium .... DIA $107.03, SPY $123.50

Jeff Bailey : 11/16/2005 4:10:32 PM

CBOT Holdings (BOT) $113.16 -1.34% ... on its IPO, came with 3.2 million shares priced at $54. The 3.2 million significantly fewer.

I'm wondering if that sudden and unexplicable decline from $118 on 11/09/05 had anything to do with positioning ahead of today's ICE IPO?

Jane Fox : 11/16/2005 4:06:05 PM

This was just plain laughable today. Link

Jeff Bailey : 11/16/2005 4:05:44 PM

ICE $39.25 +50.96% ... using today's high of $44.21 and low of $38.56, I come up with DAILY Pivot Levels of .... $35.02, $37.14, Piv= $40.67, $42.79, $46.32.

Hmmmm... today's "dynamic" 38.2% at $40.72.

Jeff Bailey : 11/16/2005 3:59:56 PM

WLP 5-minute interval chart with WEEKLY Pivot Levels as well as previously shows BLUE/PINK retracement levels at this Link

Linda Piazza : 11/16/2005 3:55:02 PM

End of day decisions: The OEX is printing a doji or near doji (depending on the close) today. It's not after a steep descent, so I'd consider it indicative of indecision and not a clear reversal signal. However, since it's my suspicion that the OEX might be in the process of establishing another of its notorious (with me, anyway) 4-6 point ranges, I wouldn't be surprised if this isn't an attempt to halt its descent and chop around with that range, likely roughly from the 200-sma up to 570.50 or so. A strong decline in the last few minutes, through the 200-sma, might change that outlook, but that doesn't seem likely to be the most likely outcome right now.

Jeff Bailey : 11/16/2005 3:50:36 PM

WLP ... intra-day chart would show a "burst" of volume on 5-minute interval (100,100 shares) from $75.92 to $75.92. Maybe somebody has flinched a bit.

Jeff Bailey : 11/16/2005 3:49:11 PM

WellPoint (WLP) $75.97 +0.35% ... nobody's flinched just yet. Option Chain at this Link

Linda Piazza : 11/16/2005 3:49:08 PM

Nothing much has changed. I haven't seen the advdec line print such a straight path for a long time. Tuesday, November 8 was one such day, it the advdec line stayed in that straight-line path straight into the close.

Jonathan Levinson : 11/16/2005 3:44:19 PM

Headline:

3:41pm SENATORS DELAY VOTE ON CHINA CURRENCY PROPOSAL

Jonathan Levinson : 11/16/2005 3:44:10 PM

QQQQ's 30 and 60 min cycle indicators have turned up again, but from neutral levels with the 30 min cycle just approaching overbought territory. The short cycle is also nearly overbought. All of this intraday action takes place within the context of a fresh 10-day stochastic sell signal on the daily chart, suggesting that yesterday's spike was a high for the daily cycle upphase. Bears need a lower closing high today.

Jeff Bailey : 11/16/2005 3:39:38 PM

A little Vanilla ICE tomorrow? Here's a 5-minute interval montage of today's IPO for ICE and the Chicago Board of Trade (BOT) when it began trading IPO. Link

Jonathan Levinson : 11/16/2005 3:36:18 PM

It feels more like an op-ex Thursday than Wednesday.

Linda Piazza : 11/16/2005 3:33:59 PM

The advdec line still hasn't broken out of that narrow channel in which it's been trading all afternoon. The OEX keeps trying to lead it higher, but it's not going. Not yet. It's just tested resistance again, just turning into the mid-channel level again.

Jeff Bailey : 11/16/2005 3:33:49 PM

Sell Program Premium ... DIA $106.91, SPX 1,230.58, QQQQ $40.71 ... seconds after WLP alert.

Jeff Bailey : 11/16/2005 3:33:10 PM

WellPoint (WLP) $76.00 +0.30% ... alert

Jonathan Levinson : 11/16/2005 3:31:11 PM

Session high for QQQQ at 40.74, 6 cents below 30/60 min channel resistance: Link

Jonathan Levinson : 11/16/2005 3:28:26 PM

Ten year notes held their big gains into the close, TNX finishing down 7.3 bps at 4.484%. IRX closed -.3 bps at 3.912%.

Jeff Bailey : 11/16/2005 3:27:11 PM

IntercontinentalExchange (ICE) $39.00 +50% ... New IPO today from Europe's largest energy futures exchange priced 16 million shares @ $26/share.

Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs were lead underwriters.

ICE was launched in 2000 primarily as an Internet-based platform for trading U.S. power and gas.

Jane Fox : 11/16/2005 3:20:19 PM

TICKS +800

Linda Piazza : 11/16/2005 3:19:36 PM

Just noted a headline that GM has hit a 14-year low this afternoon.

Linda Piazza : 11/16/2005 3:19:33 PM

Just noted a headline that GM has hit a 14-year low this afternoon.

Jonathan Levinson : 11/16/2005 3:17:55 PM

Volume breadth is -1.02:1 on the NYSE and the Nasdaq.

Jeff Bailey : 11/16/2005 3:16:04 PM

03:00 Internals found at this Link

Jane Fox : 11/16/2005 3:17:36 PM

Earlier today I noticed the ER did not have a nice smooth morning move (what I call a magic carpet ride) and I thought the day may be treacherous. Well it has been.

Jonathan Levinson : 11/16/2005 3:10:32 PM

The SOX and the BTK are both down, but the Qs are up.

Linda Piazza : 11/16/2005 3:10:28 PM

The advdec line rose right to the top of that narrow straight channel defining support and resistance and turned lower. It hasn't broken through support at -1550, however, and instead hangs around near the middle of the channel. No outcome yet.

Linda Piazza : 11/16/2005 3:08:49 PM

Look how the 30-year bond yield behaved with relationship to a long-term supporting average: Link

Marc Eckelberry : 11/16/2005 3:07:46 PM

The battle is the 2004 QQQQ high of 40.68, once again.

Jonathan Levinson : 11/16/2005 3:06:37 PM

QQQQ returns to test the breakout point from above: Link . Bulls need to see it hold. I wonder how Bulkowski's statistics would reflect the action in pennant breaks today- they seem to whipsaw more often than not, whereas the doctrine always treated them as continuation patterns.

Jeff Bailey : 11/16/2005 3:06:25 PM

03:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 11/16/2005 3:03:52 PM

Heavier volume coming in now, but vol. breadth remains dead even, 1:1 on the Nasdaq.

Marc Eckelberry : 11/16/2005 3:03:34 PM

Those November QQQQ 41 puts have been growing and now they threaten to hold the market up until Friday. Shorts might not get any mileage until next week, or worse, after Thanksgiving.

Linda Piazza : 11/16/2005 3:01:35 PM

If that was a bearish right triangle at the bottom of the OEX's descent, it's broken above the top, descending trendline. If it's a rectangular formation, the OEX is coming up to test the top of that formation, now at the 15-minute 100-sma at 566.96 and at the 38.2% retracement of the rally of the Thursday morning low. The OEX is at 566.92 as I type. For the first time today, it looks as if it will close a 15-minute period above the 15-minute 21-ema. The advdec line still coils, however, not yet breaking out of a channel from about -1550 on the downside and about -1000 on the upside. It's at -1182 as I type. The OEX front-ran the bounce again.

Jonathan Levinson : 11/16/2005 2:59:53 PM

Volume is so far higher but still pretty light on the break. Volume breadth is still -1.03:1 on the Nasdaq. 30/60 min channel resistance are at 40.78 on the chart just posted, but it's still open to a whipsaw at the apex below the previous 40.73 high.

Jonathan Levinson : 11/16/2005 2:58:27 PM

QQQQ breaks the upper resistance line. Link

Jeff Bailey : 11/16/2005 2:55:11 PM

Google (GOOG) 397.99 +1.32% Link ... ringing up another all-time high today. Up $5.19.

It might just take being added to the SPX to bring it down a little.

Jonathan Levinson : 11/16/2005 2:52:10 PM

Headline:

2:50pm DEC CRUDE RISES 90C TO CLOSE AT ONE-WK HIGH OF $57.88/BRL

Linda Piazza : 11/16/2005 2:50:35 PM

I'm actually trying to be sparing in what I post because there's really no direction apparent right now, and I don't want anything I say to be misinterpreted. Now is not a good time to form a strong market opinion. If technicals were all that was important, then I think the OEX would likely drop to the 200-sma, but we've seen technicals set up too many times in an almost certain drop and had the markets shoot higher instead.

Jonathan Levinson : 11/16/2005 2:50:03 PM

Upper pennant resistance is at 40.65 QQQQ, being tested now: Link

Jeff Bailey : 11/16/2005 2:48:51 PM

Bema Gold (BGO) $2.72 +6.66% ... no options here.

Jeff Bailey : 11/16/2005 2:47:21 PM

Goldcorp (GG) $19.99 +4.00% ...

Stillwater Mining (SWC) $11.13 +10.05% ... came "unpinned" from $10.00 today.

Linda Piazza : 11/16/2005 2:46:52 PM

OEX testing the support of the possible bearish right triangle.

Jeff Bailey : 11/16/2005 2:46:06 PM

Bank of America (BAC) $44.98 -0.59% ... "pinned like a tail on a donkey."

Jonathan Levinson : 11/16/2005 2:38:40 PM

Lower support line test here for the Qs: Link

Jane Fox : 11/16/2005 2:38:13 PM

TICKS -800

Marc Eckelberry : 11/16/2005 2:37:58 PM

COMP tagged 10 day ema and bounced. Is it showing the way?

Linda Piazza : 11/16/2005 2:36:16 PM

The OEX continues to find resistance on the 15-minute 21-ema at 566.50, on 15-minute closes.

Marc Eckelberry : 11/16/2005 2:35:45 PM

Updated VNX daily with envelopes: Link

Marc Eckelberry : 11/16/2005 2:33:16 PM

While the lower 10% envelope is not getting touched since Friday. A push and close above VXN 15.11 will set up testing upper envelope at 16.60.

Marc Eckelberry : 11/16/2005 2:31:41 PM

Note the trade highs around 10 day ema for VXN the past 3 days.

Marc Eckelberry : 11/16/2005 2:30:25 PM

I would certainly not want to be holding long Nov puts. They are killing them slowly. The picture, however, is remarkably different going into Dec. This is why I used Jan strike.

Jeff Bailey : 11/16/2005 2:29:43 PM

Microsoft (MSFT) $27.77 +0.98% ....

Intel (INTC) $24.74 -1.35% ....

Linda Piazza : 11/16/2005 2:27:13 PM

OEX still coiling. Advdec line, too. TRAN testing that Keltner resistance. No outcome predicted yet. Well, in the "old days," a bearish right triangle would suggest a break to the downside, but anyone counting on a bearish outcome from a bearish formation lately would be in trouble.

Jeff Bailey : 11/16/2005 2:27:12 PM

Good comment Jonathan (2:19:57) regarding "apex of the pennant."

Your VXN.X 14.63 -1.08% looks "identical"

$42, 41, 40 puts all seeing a dntick bias here.

Jonathan Levinson : 11/16/2005 2:26:23 PM

Session high for silver, +.243 at 8.03, a new high for the year. The Dec. 2004 high was a few pennies north of 8.30.

Marc Eckelberry : 11/16/2005 2:25:31 PM

There appears to be no sizeable put support on NDX options until 1625. Is this the true range setting up for the week? 1625/1650?

Linda Piazza : 11/16/2005 2:25:04 PM

Mark, my accent was one of the reasons I cringed when the powers-that-be were thinking about introducing voice capabilities to the Market Monitor! It's actually a Monroe, Louisiana type accent overlaid with a Texas drawl. Anyone who has ever visited Monroe and Ruston will know what I mean.

Jonathan Levinson : 11/16/2005 2:23:18 PM

Volume breadth -1.02:1 on the NYSE, -1.1:1 on the Nasdaq.

Jeff Bailey : 11/16/2005 2:19:57 PM

02:00 Internals found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 11/16/2005 2:19:30 PM

QQQQ is wedged into the apex of the pennant. The short cycle indicators suggest an upward break, the daily suggest down, and the longer intraday cycles are undecided. A break of either trendline on volume should be decisive: Link

Linda Piazza : 11/16/2005 2:14:56 PM

The TRAN slides down along descending Keltner resistance that's now at 4027.79 on 15-minute closes. It's not falling away from that resistance toward the next downside target at 3969, however, which means that bears should remain watchful for a sudden bounce. TRAN at 3986.77 as I type. Bulls should remain aware of a possible break lower, toward that next target. For now, resistance holds and the TRAN remains in a downtrend.

Jeff Bailey : 11/16/2005 2:13:37 PM

SFBC Intl. (SFCC) $25.05 -24.47% ... halted for trade. News pending.

Linda Piazza : 11/16/2005 2:10:13 PM

That formation on the OEX's 15-minute chart looks more and more like a bearish right triangle. We know not to count on these breaking to the downside, especially with the advdec line still just coiling, but watch now. I think it would take a break and 15-minute close above the 15-minute 100-ema at 577 to confirm an upside break, by the way.

Jeff Bailey : 11/16/2005 2:04:29 PM

02:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Marc Eckelberry : 11/16/2005 1:59:43 PM

Ultimate target is gap close at 39.35.

Jeff Bailey : 11/16/2005 1:59:04 PM

WellPoint (WLP) $75.74 +0.05% ... here's the WLP Options chain. CALL Support at $75 strike. Question(s) are ... Is OI net long, or short/NAKED, or Covered?. We "know" that the Market Maker of these options has had to sell them. Can he/she get a quick move back lower to $75 and get some of it close out? Link

Note the dn/up volume in the stock at this point. Net BUYERS, so $75 Call may well be overly NAKED, thus need to buy the stock.

Note: Despite heavy $75 call OI, volume so far with 2.5 days left is VERY LIGHT. Do see some dntick bias though.

No premiums here, just "manipulation"

Marc Eckelberry : 11/16/2005 1:58:06 PM

The plan is to get enough profit to be able to hold the remaining postion with a wide stop at dollar break-even.

Marc Eckelberry : 11/16/2005 1:57:17 PM

ALERT
Modify partial (50% of position) profit target on QQQQ Jan 41 puts to QQQQ 40.31. Day only.

Jonathan Levinson : 11/16/2005 1:52:16 PM

QQQQ tests the upper descending pennant resistance line here at 40.67: Link

Jonathan Levinson : 11/16/2005 1:49:51 PM

Crude oil holds a 1.05 gain at 58.025, 22.5 cents off the high. Yesterday's high was tested but not broken on the surge: Link

Jonathan Levinson : 11/16/2005 1:44:55 PM

Dec. gold continues its break above descending resistance, now up 10.20 at 479.20 and 20 cents off its high, the daily cycle upphase confirmed as price approaches the year high: Link

Jeff Bailey : 11/16/2005 1:45:07 PM

Take a chance sell covered call alert ... Let's take a chance and sell two (2) of the Wellpoint WLP Nov. $75 Calls (WLP-KO) at the bid of $0.90.

WLP $75.63 -0.09% ... session high/low has been $75.10-$75.94. Nov. $75 Calls are heaviest OI (75:10,769).

Linda Piazza : 11/16/2005 1:44:21 PM

Stepping away from a few minutes.

Jane Fox : 11/16/2005 1:38:33 PM

I'm not sure how many traders out there feel the same as I do but October was a phenomenal month for trading and November has been almost a 180 degree turn and been dismal. Take a look at the spikes in the AD volume during October and how those spikes have been almost nonexistent during November. Link

Jeff Bailey : 11/16/2005 1:36:48 PM

Goldcorp. (GG) ... Keeps pounding against the $20.00 level Link

Linda Piazza : 11/16/2005 1:33:45 PM

The TRAN keeps printing new lows, but it's just risen past the previous swing low on the five-minute chart. It hadn't done that previously. This is micro-analyzing, and not proof of anything, but perhaps a warning to pay attention to whether the TRAN's short-term downside momentum is waning.

Jane Fox : 11/16/2005 1:31:30 PM

Just when the bears thought it may be safe to go back in the water there comes a buy program and pushes the TICKS to +800.

Linda Piazza : 11/16/2005 1:30:57 PM

Advdec line just coiling. This differs from yesterday's action. It spent a period of time testing resistance, short-term charts showing RSI marking the move as overdone, and then the advdec line fell. Today, it coils and so does RSI, not signaling much of anything.

Jonathan Levinson : 11/16/2005 1:26:19 PM

QQQQ bounces above the lower rising pennant support line, returning to test 72 SMA resistance from below: Link

Linda Piazza : 11/16/2005 1:25:30 PM

The RLX is near the day's high, testing the 10-sma from the underside, but positive for the day, unlike many other indices.

Linda Piazza : 11/16/2005 1:24:23 PM

Important test: the BIX has fallen to its converging 10- and 200-sma's, at 354.98 and 355.44, respectively, with the BIX at 355.25, between the two. The BIX often leads the OEX by a step or two, and if it plunges beneath the 200-sma, that might tell OEX traders that it's possible the OEX could do the same. If it bounces hard from this test occurring right now, that might tell OEX traders something, too.

Linda Piazza : 11/16/2005 1:20:53 PM

The OEX's 15-minute pattern appears to be taking on the look of a bearish right triangle if you ignore the candle spikes below 565.70. That would show support at 565.70 and lower highs for the top of the triangle. If you include those spikes and you're bullish, it's possible that you could see a falling wedge setting up. We're approaching a stop-running time of day in twenty minutes or so, so we could find out soon.

Jane Fox : 11/16/2005 1:30:27 PM

Internals, although bearish, are anything but clear. Like what's new? AD volume is once again making new daily lows but the AD line is not although it is bearish at -514 but not overly so. Both the TRIN and VIX are making new daily highs but the TRIN's new daily high was 0.88, not what you would call a bearish number. All in all the internals are once again still very murky and I am so looking forward to the day when they start talking to me again.

Jeff Bailey : 11/16/2005 1:13:44 PM

01:00 Internals found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 11/16/2005 1:11:01 PM

Session high for ten year notes here at 108 55/64, TNX down 7.7 bps to 4.48%. IRX is still down just .3 bps at 3.912%.

Linda Piazza : 11/16/2005 1:10:00 PM

If you're in a bearish OEX position and have not take partial profit, I'd certain consider it as the OEX drops toward its 200-sma at 564.85. Much support lies in that zone. If you have already taken partial profit, I'd be following the OEX lower with your stops if you're aggressive but maybe considering full profits if conservative. There's the possibility that the OEX could just plow through that support zone on the way down the way it did on the way up, but if I were feeling bullish right now, I'd be studying all the support coming together in that zone. Because I watch the advdec line and it's not giving me a bullish signal yet, I'm not feeling bullish, but those who aren't watching the same thing might be.

Linda Piazza : 11/16/2005 1:06:38 PM

New low on the TRAN, although only minimal so far. Advdec line drops again. The OEX falls toward the day's low. All is right in the bearish world again, but bears should not forget those waiting support levels for the OEX.

Jeff Bailey : 11/16/2005 1:05:01 PM

01:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 11/16/2005 1:02:17 PM

Advdec line turning lower again. Next support at -1325. So far, the advdec line has found resistance at a lower level that yesterday.

Jeff Bailey : 11/16/2005 12:58:40 PM

OEX Top 33 Market Cap components at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 11/16/2005 12:54:17 PM

Back. QQQQ has continued to bleed lowever on extremely thin volume, holding below pennant resistance. The setup is very similar both on the daily chart and on the intraday 3 min chart, with the cyles in each timeframe toppy and price edging lower in either a bull flag or a distribution top. The cycles say it's the latter, while the trend from the last few weeks suggests the former. With so many trades since last Thursday in the 40.65-40.90 area, I'm treating that area as resistance until proven otherwise. A strong bounce today, making this range off the intraday into a bull flag, should propel price into that range, but it will take a break of the 40.90 high to be significant on the daily chart as well.

So far, this is an inside day following yesterday's bearish engulfing/key reversal. Shorts with a stop at the day high are the textbook play on that basis, but with the 30 and 60 min cycles ambiguous and trying to turn up off yeterday's lows, it's still too early to try it with a tight enough stop. Link

Marc Eckelberry : 11/16/2005 12:51:46 PM

ALERT
QQQQ Jan 41 puts entered Friday at 1.05, raise stop to 0.75
Take partial profits at NQ 1635. GTC.

Linda Piazza : 11/16/2005 12:51:42 PM

Coiling, coiling, coiling. The OEX coils above the 200-sma and below 568-ish resistance. The advdec line tests resistance, not yet able to break above it, but not having registered enough of an overdone signal that we can't count on it being through testing that resistance. No outcome can be determined from this as yet, unfortunately.

Tab Gilles : 11/16/2005 12:51:26 PM

Keene...will oil be that catalyst for a deeper decline? per 12:24:18 PM post... Link

Jane Fox : 11/16/2005 12:51:11 PM

TICKS range so far today has been a benign +762 to -655.

Jeff Bailey : 11/16/2005 12:48:05 PM

Bank of America (BAC) $44.98 -0.59% Link ... Nov OI heaviest at $45 Call (1,085:43,024), then $42.50 Call (20:27,182), then $42.50 Put (0:23,665). The $45 Puts (422:17,698) much lighter OI than the $45 Calls, so a "Max Pain" value should be below the $45.00.

Last night I was looking at the Regional Bank HOLDRs (RKH) $138.78 -0.35% Link and option action suggested some heavy $140 Call selling.

Keene Little : 11/16/2005 12:44:56 PM

Linda, that upper K-Band on your daily TRAN chart shows how stretched the rubber band got up there.

Linda Piazza : 11/16/2005 12:38:04 PM

Keene, here's a daily Keltner chart for the TRAN, too. Look where the TRAN ended its climb. However, there's the possibility of strong support being approached, too, at the thin red line and the top of the black channel. Watching to see what happens. Link

Linda Piazza : 11/16/2005 12:35:12 PM

At least temporarily, the advdec line has stopped rising. The five-minute RSI didn't rise quite as far as I would have like to have seen it rise in order to have concluded that the upside move was overdone for the short-term period, but did rise above 70. The possibility that the advdec line could rise toward yesterday's resistance band hasn't been undone yet.

So far, the OEX continues to find resistance at the 15-minute 100-ema at 567.11.

Tab Gilles : 11/16/2005 12:24:56 PM

DJ Oil & Gas Index ($DJUSEN) Link Link

Keene Little : 11/16/2005 12:24:18 PM

Linda, the watcher of the TRAN, notice where the rally stopped--right at the top of an ascending wedge on its weekly chart. The internal wave count for the last leg up shows complete so I'm expecting at least a deeper pullback now. If this index has topped out, I'll be watching for evidence of impulsive declines from here. Needless to say that would be bearish for the broader market since we currently have DOW non-confirmation of its rally. Link

Jeff Bailey : 11/16/2005 12:23:12 PM

QQQQ 33 biggest market caps ... current trade at this Link ... yesterday I made a quick note of MSFT and INTC November Open Interest $27.50/$25.00 respective. Might be some day trades in here.

Jonathan Levinson : 11/16/2005 12:22:19 PM

Stepping away.

Jeff Bailey : 11/16/2005 12:19:03 PM

QQQQ $40.67 +0.39% ....

Jeff Bailey : 11/16/2005 12:18:32 PM

Microsoft (MSFT) $27.62 +0.43% ....

Intel (INTC) $24.87 -0.83% ....

Jeff Bailey : 11/16/2005 12:16:23 PM

12:00 Internals found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 11/16/2005 12:12:09 PM

So far, the OEX continues to find resistance at the 15-minute 21-ema at 566.94 and the 100-ema at 567.13, closing 15-minute periods below these averages. This is what bears want to see, but until the advdec line turns lower again, that resistance is likely to go on being tested if not exceeded. Advdec line now at -1032. It could be stopped at the resistance that's being tested now, but the movement doesn't yet appear overdone on the five-minute chart, so I think it's likely that the advdec line will rise into higher resistance, as it did yesterday. In fact, it bounced as I typed, now at -916.

Tab Gilles : 11/16/2005 12:10:38 PM

Murphy Oil (MUR) Entry $48;(1/2 position) MUR over 200 ema. Trailing STOP set at 10-ema. Note keep eye on $WTIC chart posted earlier [12:04AM]. Link

Jonathan Levinson : 11/16/2005 12:09:49 PM

Volume breadth pulls back to neutral while QQQQ settles back into its opening range. There was a surge in volume off the low, and another off the high, with volume crawling between the price extremes. At this point the oscillators are barely keeping up with the swings, while the daily cycle continues to hold on the cusp of its overdue downphase. Price is tracing a pennant from yesterday's high to low, so far an inside day. However, without volume to confirm a trendline break in either direction, I will be very skeptical of such a break: Link

Jeff Bailey : 11/16/2005 12:07:06 PM

12:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 11/16/2005 12:04:24 PM

No new low of the day for the TRAN. It's at 3986.78 as I type, with the current low at 3982.67.

Jane Fox : 11/16/2005 12:03:44 PM

Here is a chart I posted this morning as to why I was bullish on bonds. As you can see they have now broken the reverse H&S and I believe they can make it all the way to the green trendline. Link

Linda Piazza : 11/16/2005 11:58:36 AM

The TRAN is still in a decline, currently temporarily finding resistance at or below the previous swing low. It's been doing that since Monday morning, and hasn't broken that trend yet. TRAN at 3989.89 as I type.

Linda Piazza : 11/16/2005 11:55:32 AM

OEX moving up to test the 15-minute 21-ema at 566.97 and the 15-minute 100-ema at 567.14. The advdec line has broken above the resistance that was holding it back earlier, zipping right up to next resistance at the current -1115 level, and will soon hit next resistance at -875. RSI shows mixed evidence here, not producing a buy signal and looking rather like it did yesterday afternoon when the advdec line rose to test resistance. We can see the consolidation patterns and just have to wait to see the direction they break. Bears had an opportunity to prepare their profit-protecting plans, and now should hold to them. OEX at 566.91 as I type.

Jeff Bailey : 11/16/2005 11:54:29 AM

QQQQ Current Options Chain with updated for yesterday's action OpenInterest at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 11/16/2005 11:54:24 AM

Volume breadth is up to +1.2:1 on the NYSE, +1.1:1 on the Nasdaq as QQQQ breaks the previous high.

Jane Fox : 11/16/2005 11:53:37 AM

Geesh AD volume is back to making new daily highs and above 0 but the AD line is still below 0 and NOT making new daily highs. This can't go on forever!

Jonathan Levinson : 11/16/2005 11:49:43 AM

QQQQ challenges the prior 40.70 high, above which is 30/60 min channel resistance at 40.75, also a confluence level from yesterday's sideways range: Link

Jeff Bailey : 11/16/2005 11:47:51 AM

Jonathan ... have you noted today's DAILY S2/WEEKLY S1 and DAILY R2/WEEKLY R1 QQQQ correlations?

Jeff Bailey : 11/16/2005 11:46:42 AM

Yesterday's finishing QQQQ Options Chain found at this Link

QQQQ Options Chain snapshot taken yesterday as QQQQ/VXN.X both traded their WEEKLY Pivot at this Link

Linda Piazza : 11/16/2005 11:46:11 AM

The advdec line has risen all the way back to that resistance level that it was testing for almost an hour earlier today. That extends up to -1400, with the advdec line now at -1587. Indicators on short-term charts just tell us what we already know, that indices are consolidating. I have not gotten a bullish sgnal today, but that doesn't mean that the advdec line won't continue to bounce and bring indices up, too. Some movements are missed on this system.

As far as the OEX is concerned, it's consolidating near a 60-minute Keltner support line at 565.85. That support has held on 60-minute closes since midmorning on October 28, having been tested two previous times during that rally, so it's important. Not more important than the 200-sma, of course, but a 60-minute close below that Keltner level would be another notch in the bears' belts. It also represents a point of danger for bears, as it's bounced the OEX other times. It's not looking as it did those other times, with the OEX not springing away the moment it was approached, but I absolutely would not count on that support being violated. I'd just be watchful, guarding my positions, whether bullish or bearish.

Jonathan Levinson : 11/16/2005 11:41:47 AM

The Qs have regained the 72 SMA here above 40.56, and the short cycle has stalled early, this time in its downphase. This is opex action at its finest, the picture flipping from bullish to bearish within a 10 cent range, every signal failing early. Link

Jonathan Levinson : 11/16/2005 11:38:51 AM

Headlines:

11:37am GERMANY'S DAX DOWN 0.6% AT 5,081 AS TRADING ENDS

11:37am FRANCE'S CAC-40 DOWN 0.7% AT 4,512

11:37am U.K.'S FTSE 100 DOWN 0.2% AT 5,430

Jeff Bailey : 11/16/2005 11:37:59 AM

30-year YIELD ($TYX.X) plunging 6.4 bp to 4.678%. This is "riskiest" of Treasuries.

Jeff Bailey : 11/16/2005 11:37:08 AM

Junk Bond alert Nibbling away at some Pacholder High Yield (PFH) $9.11 +0.77% for the retirement account today.

SEC YIELD currently 9.879%

Jane Fox : 11/16/2005 11:33:02 AM

WE had a direction for a short while this morning but we now back to no direction and I would not be trading unless you see a pristine setup. Link

Jonathan Levinson : 11/16/2005 11:24:26 AM

Ten year notes have continued higher, TNX now down 6.9 bps at 4.488%, a 1.51% decline today. IRX is down .3 bps at 3.912%. There are no Treasury auctions scheduled for today.

Linda Piazza : 11/16/2005 11:24:17 AM

Watching to see what the advdec line does as it tests next resistance at -1600 to -1720. Advdec line now at -1729. Next resistance above that closer to -1500.

Jonathan Levinson : 11/16/2005 11:20:14 AM

Headline:

11:16am SENATE BANKING PANEL VOTES TO CONFIRM BERNANKE AS FED CHIEF

Jeff Bailey : 11/16/2005 11:19:57 AM

11:00 Internals found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 11/16/2005 11:15:15 AM

This drop stalls the 30 and 60 min cycle upphases in the early going, while the 30 min channel has not yet turned down. The cycle picture is a mess at this point, because the moves in price are taking place more quickly than the oscillators can track, and the reversals are starting early in both directions. Link Volume is appropriately light at 38.6M shares, breadth now negative -1.4:1.

Jeff Bailey : 11/16/2005 11:14:46 AM

GSIG Link ... I remember now. On 10/28/05, company reaffirmed guidance, commented that it didn't know why stock had fallen on heavy volume in recent sessions.

Linda Piazza : 11/16/2005 11:11:56 AM

New low for the OEX, but it punched right back to the 50% retracement of the rally, at 565.70. The advdec line is again at one level of potential support, at -1900, so a bounce back to retest that resistance it was just testing can't be precluded. Bears, you've had lots of time to plan what you were going to do if the OEX were to approach the 200-sma at 564.88, and it's approaching it now, so firm up that plan, as a bounce could occur quickly. What you want to see happen is a quick plunge through those gathered averages instead. It could happen because it sliced right through them on the way up, but I'd bet that there are some dip-buyers waiting.

Jeff Bailey : 11/16/2005 11:11:07 AM

GSI Group (GSIG) $9.21 +4.06% ... had an al_rt set here, but can't remember scenario.

Jonathan Levinson : 11/16/2005 11:07:40 AM

Session lows across the board, QQQQ filling the gap and returning to yesterday's S2: Link . 30 min channel support is at 40.44.

Linda Piazza : 11/16/2005 11:03:49 AM

The OEX might still be trying to climb, but the advdec line is turning lower again, at a new low for the day. Be careful of assuming climbs with continue unless the advdec line turns around soon.

Jeff Bailey : 11/16/2005 11:03:25 AM

11:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jane Fox : 11/16/2005 11:02:06 AM

These two have been following the same path this morning so it may be worth your while to keep an eye on the TRIN. Link

Jonathan Levinson : 11/16/2005 10:56:03 AM

Volume breadth is now neutral at 1:1 on both the NYSE and Nasdaq, QQQQ +.11 at 40.63.

Jeff Bailey : 11/16/2005 10:55:43 AM

Distillate 0-15ppm Sulfer (diesel) Inventories rose by 85,000 barrels, or 6.17% to 1.46 million barrels.

Jeff Bailey : 11/16/2005 10:53:59 AM

Jet Fuel Inventories rose by 1.12 million barrels, or 2.92% to 39.74 million barrels.

Linda Piazza : 11/16/2005 10:53:47 AM

The advdec line is still challenging that same resistance that it's been challenging, currently rising within the narrow range in which it's been holding, but not yet breaking above that resistance. RSI still flattens. The OEX, meanwhile, is rising to test resistance of its own, from the 15-minute 100/130-ema's and the 38.2% retracement of its rally off the morning low on Thursday, with that resistance extending up to 567.20 on 15-minute closes. So far, the expected bounce hasn't amounted to much, but neither the advdec line nor the OEX has broken support, either.

Jeff Bailey : 11/16/2005 10:51:05 AM

EIA Weekly Crude Oil, Gasoline, Distillate Inventory Table found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 11/16/2005 10:45:15 AM

The advdec line has spent the last 30 minutes challenging resistance at -1360 up to -1250. The advdec line is at -1442. RSI flattens. No clues as to whether that resistance will ultimately hold or not. Meanwhile, the OEX tries to hold above the 50% retracement of its rally off last Thursday's low, with that retracement at about 565.70, just above yesterday's low. OEX at 565.95.

If there's a bounce in both--the advdec line and the OEX--my setup would still not be for a long play, but that doesn't mean that a bounce couldn't go high and far, so bears need to know what they'll do if a bounce occurs instead of an advdec line rollover beneath the resistance being tested.

Jonathan Levinson : 11/16/2005 10:44:16 AM

Ten year notes are holding their gains, with TNX down 3.2 bps to 4.532%, Link , the first full daily print (so far) below the 22 day EMA and the lower rising support line. 13-week rates are flat at 3.915%, however, the yield curve flattening today.

Jeff Bailey : 11/16/2005 10:41:21 AM

EIA Weekly Inputs, Operable Capacity, Utilization Table found at this Link ... Note: 86.22% of the nation's refinery capacity currently online. Back to levels found just after Hurricane Katrina, but still well off those levels found prior.

Jonathan Levinson : 11/16/2005 10:38:00 AM

Volume breadth is -1.1:1 on the NYSE, +1.03:1 on the Nasdaq.

Jonathan Levinson : 11/16/2005 10:34:03 AM

A quick dunk below 72 SMA support has been reversed again for QQQQ, despite the bounce to 57.35 in Dec. crude. The decline this AM is choppy and sideways, and it started very early to generate a reliable 30 or 60 min sell signal. I don't trust the decline so far, and keep thinking "flag" as it drifts off its opening high: Link

Linda Piazza : 11/16/2005 10:32:39 AM

TRAN still dropping. Advdec line moved a little lower. The OEX, however, is testing an equal-low or double-bottom level. Bears would have liked to have had it drop below yesterday's low, but there are all those averages just below.

Bears, this might be a good place/time to consider at least partial profits, if you haven't already done so.

Jonathan Levinson : 11/16/2005 10:31:26 AM

Headlines:

10:30am U.S. CRUDE STKS DOWN 2.2 MLN BRLS LAST WK: ENERGY DEPT

10:30am U.S. GASOLINE STKS DOWN 900,000 BRLS: ENERGY DEPT

10:30am U.S. DISTILLATE STKS UP 2.6 MLN BRLS: ENERGY DEPT

Jonathan Levinson : 11/16/2005 10:30:21 AM

From the EIA website:

U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) fell by 2.2 million barrels from the previous week. However, at 321.4 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories remain well above the upper end of the average range for this time of year. Total motor gasoline inventories declined by 0.9 million barrels last week, putting them in the middle of the average range. Distillate fuel inventories rose by 2.6 million barrels last week, but are in the lower half of the average range for this time of year. Increases were seen in both high-sulfur (heating oil) and low-sulfur (diesel fuel) distillate fuel inventories. Total commercial petroleum inventories decreased by 1.1 million barrels last week, but remain near the upper end of the average range for this time of year.

Linda Piazza : 11/16/2005 10:28:02 AM

RUT approaching the 50-sma and the 72-ema, with that 72-ema also important on the RUT's chart. Those averages are at 652.02 and 651.03, respectively, with the RUT at 652.61 as I type. It's looking possible to me that the RUT could find support there and bounce up into a right-shoulder formation on the 60-minute chart. If it's symmetrical to the left shoulder, it will consist of a week of choppy movement. If the RUT instead falls straight through that support, well we know something different about the RUT, don't we?

Jonathan Levinson : 11/16/2005 10:27:46 AM

Awaiting the oil inventory report in 2 minutes.

Linda Piazza : 11/16/2005 10:24:34 AM

The TRAN is now below its 10-sma and below 4000. It's been in a downtrend since Monday morning. Remember, though, that the TRAN's pre-inventories trend is sometimes reversed after the inventories number. It's at 3993.54 as I type, looking as if it might be attempting a rise or at least a steadying now, with the TRAN now at 3991.33. It's showing some bullish divergences on some charts, but that may just mean a rise within its falling channel. Difficult to tell with the TRAN just ahead of the inventories number, especially since the TRAN sometimes just continues its pre-inventories trend afterwards. There's no trend as to how the TRAN handles the trend. Smile.

Jane Fox : 11/16/2005 10:17:45 AM

Now we have the AD volume and AD line both below 0 and both falling. Finally direction.

Linda Piazza : 11/16/2005 10:16:47 AM

Remember inventories in a few minutes.

OEX traders, the converging 10-dma, 200-sma and 100-sma are all in the 564.17-564.90 region, with that also being the location of the former ascending trendline off the April low. That's going to be a natural place for dip-buyers to step in. I'm not yet getting a long signal, and a bounce could come without me ever getting one, but bears should be making their profit-protecting plans now. Are you going to stay in, take partial profits, what?

Jonathan Levinson : 11/16/2005 10:16:30 AM

Back to find QQQQ breaking below 72 SMA support and stalling the short cycle upphase early in its run, ditto the 30 min channel upphase: Link . 30 min channel support is at S1, 40.37. However, with the wavelet bottoming (middle oscillator pane) and the short cycle not yet rolling over, it's still very early for the bears to count out the bulls.

Jeff Bailey : 11/16/2005 10:14:49 AM

10:00 Internals found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 11/16/2005 10:13:01 AM

Advdec line still dropping. It sliced right through yesterday's resistance, with that resistance not holding as support today. Next support being rapidly approached, at about -1450 to -1200.

Linda Piazza : 11/16/2005 10:06:24 AM

Unless there's going to be a plunge lower all day, a cascading kind of fall, the advdec line is approaching stronger support, at about -620. From this vantage point, it looks possible, but not yet probable, that the advdec line will find resistance rather soon, at about -200, if it should bounce. However, if it should get past that, then it's possible that it could rise to +100-200 or even burst higher to 1250 or so. As I said, I'm not going to get a setup right now for a long play, but if that support that's being test does hold and it does bounce, indices might, too. Bears should know how much of a bounce they'll tolerate.

As I typed, the OEX invalidated the inverse H&S.

Jeff Bailey : 11/16/2005 10:04:32 AM

10:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jane Fox : 11/16/2005 10:03:49 AM

The VIX is making new daily highs confirming the new daily lows in ES.

Jonathan Levinson : 11/16/2005 10:03:16 AM

Stepping away for a few minutes.

Jane Fox : 11/16/2005 10:02:55 AM

AD line is falling now and has fallen below 0 but the AD volume is hanging around above 0 and until these two move in unison we will have choppy unreadable markets.

Jonathan Levinson : 11/16/2005 10:02:53 AM

Headlines:

10:01am U.S. OCT OIL-PRODUCT DELIVERIES DOWN 8% VS. YR AGO: API

10:01am HIGH OIL PRICES PROMPTS OCT CUTS IN OIL-PRODUCT DEMAND: API

10:01am OCT REFINERY UTILIZATION AT 79.7%, LOWEST SINCE 1987: API

10:01am OCT GASOLINE IMPORTS AT RECORD 1.3 MLN BRLS/DAY: API

Linda Piazza : 11/16/2005 10:01:12 AM

Advdec line still dropping, still testing yesterday's resistance zone to see if it holds as support. Advdec line at -404 as I type. This advdec line saved bulls this morning. Although it was rising, the upward movement was showing that it was short-term overdone and facing resistance. Even if a bullish move will eventually be produced, bulls have had an opportunity to get in lower. I can tell you already, though, that even if I were calling plays this week, I would not be getting a setup for a long play from this. It's possible that the advdec line's RSI will trend in "overbought" status all day, but that's not the right setup for a new long entry for me.

Jonathan Levinson : 11/16/2005 9:59:15 AM

QQQQ tests the pivot here, still holding above the declining 72 SMA at 40.60. The short cycle and 30 min channels still rise, but are losing their momentum as the price slides sideways/down: Link

Linda Piazza : 11/16/2005 9:58:51 AM

The OEX has another potential inverse H&S setting up on the five-minute chart, this one with a rising neckline, a head at yesterday's low, right shoulders at the 38.2% retracement of the rally off the Thursday morning low, at about 566.87. If the OEX drops much further than that, it's going to invalidate the formation. It needs to rise through the current 568.20-ish level of the neckline soon, too, or it's going to invalidate the formation because the right shoulder is taking too long to build.

Linda Piazza : 11/16/2005 9:56:10 AM

TRAN pulling back off the high of the day, still above the 10-sma at 4004.99. TRAN at 4013.82 as I type.

Linda Piazza : 11/16/2005 9:54:42 AM

Advdec line pausing now at yesterday afternoon's resistance. If it maintains support here and rises, bears want to see it fail again at about +200. Failing that, they want to see resistance at +1230, with bearish divergence on any thrust up there again. Bulls want to see the advdec line at least maintain the support being tested now and climb again, at least hugging the +100 level all day if not actually climbing further. Advdec line at -397 and continuing to drop as I typed.

Jonathan Levinson : 11/16/2005 9:53:59 AM

A 4B overnight repo results in a net 10.25B drain on the day. That's a large drain, though demand for the money fell, with the stop out rate down from yesterday's 4.08 to 3.97 on treasury collateral.

Linda Piazza : 11/16/2005 9:51:59 AM

Jane's 9:49:27 post, perhaps on the Futures side, reminds me of something that I wanted to say. Sometimes, it's a strength as a trader to recognize that signals are not setting up right and to stay out of the market. Perhaps you think you know where markets are going and perhaps they do indeed go that direction, but you're accepting a lot of risk if you're betting on direction and there's not support for your theory, if indicators are mixed. You might luck out sometimes and be in terrible trouble others. It's not a strength to insist on trading each and every day. Wait for the good trades. Preserve your trading account.

Jeff Bailey : 11/16/2005 9:51:30 AM

Bullish swing trade long alert for 1/2 bullish position in shares of Goldcorp (GG) $19.70 +2.45% Link here, stop $18.90, target $24.00.

Jonathan Levinson : 11/16/2005 9:49:44 AM

Volume breadth is down to +1.4:1 on the NYSE, +1.7:1 on the Nasdaq.

Linda Piazza : 11/16/2005 9:48:19 AM

Advdec line dropping more steeply now. This is why I said earlier that I wouldn't be chasing the OEX higher if not already long. Now we'll have to see how the advdec line behaves as it drops into the level that was resistance yesterday afternoon. If it holds, there could be another attempt higher, but this is not a setup according to my methodology for a long play, so be cautious. It could be a day when the advdec line's indicators trend in "overbought" levels all day, of course, but the setup for me is not there for a long play.

Jeff Bailey : 11/16/2005 9:47:23 AM

Program Trading Levels for Wednesday ... HL Camp & Company has their computers set for program buying at $+3.66 and set for program selling at $+1.66.

Jeff Bailey : 11/16/2005 9:46:21 AM

Sell Program Premium ... DIA $107.17, SPX 1,230.84, QQQQ $40.66

Linda Piazza : 11/16/2005 9:45:48 AM

The advdec line is not following through on the current five-minute period with the potential for a pullback, not completing an evening star reversal pattern just yet. It is pulling back, but not deep enough to have confirmed that formation . . . but dropping as I type. It's at 510 as I type, and watch for potential support in the -60 to +90 region, and then again at yesterday's region down to -500.

Jonathan Levinson : 11/16/2005 9:43:15 AM

The Fed has 14.25B in various repo expiries to address today in its 10AM announcement. Following that, we'll be watching for the 10:30 Petrol Report.

Linda Piazza : 11/16/2005 9:42:44 AM

Potential for a pullback now, according to the five- and 10-minute advdec lines. Not definitive proof yet.

Linda Piazza : 11/16/2005 9:41:55 AM

The TRAN bounces from its 10-sma at 4005.96. The TRAN is at 4023.17 as I type, retesting the neckline of a new H&S on its 15-minute chart, this one with a descending neckline. It's also retesting the 15-minute 100/130-ema's at 4028.98 and 4021.50, respectively. This would be a natural place for a rollover, and the TRAN is pulling back, but not definitively so. Can't count on a rollover yet.

Jonathan Levinson : 11/16/2005 9:40:32 AM

QQQQ's short cycle is still catching up to the move in price, still in a steep upphase not yet overbought. The 30 min channel test at 40.70 is tempting for a short, but with neither the short cycle nor the 30 min cycle anywhere near overbought territory, there's room for those channel tops to continue climbing.

Jeff Bailey : 11/16/2005 9:42:21 AM

Tyco Intl. (TYC) $28.05 +2.37% Link ... Most active in early trade after the diversified manufacturer said quarterly profits doubled vs. a year ago.

For the fourth quarter ended on September 30, Tyco said net income increased to $917 million, or $0.44 per share, from $454 million, or $0.22 per share, a year earlier.

Excluding one-time charges and gains, earnings totaled $0.48 per share, compared with consensus of $0.46.

Revenue was flat at $10 billion, but excluded $465 million in sales from the plastics and adhesives business, which Tyco plans to sell by year-end and now classifies as a discontinued operation. Consensus was for $10.6 billion.

For the first quarter, Tyco forecast earnings per share of between $0.40-$0.42 a share, including a charge of $0.02 for an accounting change. Analysts on average are expecting $0.45.

During the company's conference call, Tyco's Chief Executive Ed Breen said the company's shares are undervalued and if the shares remain undervalued, the company will take "additional actions."

At 13 times estimated 2006 earnings, Mr. Breen pointed out that Tyco trades at a discount to the S&P Industrials Index, which has a price-to-earnings ratio of about 15.

Tyco has repurchased $300 million of its shares in the fourth quarter ended on Sept. 30 and an additional $200 million since then. It also spent $450 million to repurchase convertible debt securities during the latest quarter.

Linda Piazza : 11/16/2005 9:37:53 AM

The OEX has confirmed an inverse H&S on its five-minute chart, upside target somewhere around 568.90, if met. OEX at 567.84 as I type. The advdec line is jammed against one level of resistance, though, and so, if not already long, I'd be a little reluctant to chase this. That's just me.

Jane Fox : 11/16/2005 9:36:39 AM

AD line is +480 and AD volume is above 0. Not overly bullish but bullish all the same.

Linda Piazza : 11/16/2005 9:35:39 AM

Advdec line's movement looking overdone to the upside already, but no sign of a downturn yet, and it sometimes climbs for the first hour after showing such a breakout before turning lower again.

Jonathan Levinson : 11/16/2005 9:35:03 AM

Volume breadth is +2.15:1 on the NYSE, +1.7:1 on the Nasdaq.

Linda Piazza : 11/16/2005 9:32:44 AM

Advdec line opens much as it did yesterday, above support, but it's climbing into next resistance now. As it does, the OEX climbs, too, still testing the 15-minute 100-ema, at 567.31 current, with the OEX just above it, at 567.51.

Jonathan Levinson : 11/16/2005 9:31:58 AM

72 SMA support is at QQQQ 40.63, 30 min channel resistance at 40.70 and 60 min channel resistance at 40.84. 30 min channel support is at 40.35. Link

Jonathan Levinson : 11/16/2005 9:29:03 AM

QQQQ's bounce this morning has regained the 40.60 level, stalling both the 30 and 60 min cycle downphases at higher oscillator lows, for a possible bullish divergence if the gains stick in the opening 15-20 minutes. However, the broader daily cycle printed a stochastic sell signal yesterday, and to my mind the key will be whether the bulls can meet or exceed yesterday's high. If yes, then the drop was a bear trap. If not, then we look for a lower daily low to confirm a new daily cycle downphase. My guess is for the latter scenario, because of how toppy the daily cycle has become. I will post the channel markets just after the open when my charts refresh.

Jeff Bailey : 11/16/2005 9:22:19 AM

Gilead Sciences (GILD $51.64 Link ... #4 most active in pre-market trade and higher at $54.88 after Chinese government officials confirm first case of Bird Flu in human.

Novavax (NVAX) $3.54 Link also marked higher at $3.74.

BioCryst Pharma (BCRX) $11.27 Link ... up at $11.90.

Quigley Corp. (QGLY) 12.83 Link ... (unch)

Jeff Bailey : 11/16/2005 9:14:20 AM

American Intl. Group (AIG) $66.68 Link .... 3.1 million share block crossed at $66.10.

Jane Fox : 11/16/2005 9:09:03 AM

Dateline WSJ The U.S. economy has been on an impressive run, logging its most stable stretch of expansion ever. But the bond market is signaling trouble ahead.

Even as long-term interest rates have risen to levels not seen in many months, the Federal Reserve has driven short-term borrowing rates up even faster, closing the gap between short and long rates in a trend known as a flattening yield curve. Meanwhile, the prices of certain mortgage bonds have fallen, pushing their yields up.

This, investors and economists say, is the bond market's way of saying that the Fed's efforts to fight inflation could take a toll on overstretched homeowners and tip the economy into recession -- though the bond set does have a history of predicting recessions more often than they occur.

"What that's telling you is that the Fed is going to be successful in popping the real-estate bubble," says Robert Smith, who manages about $1.4 billion in bond investments as chief investment officer at Smith Affiliated Capital Corp. in New York.

After steepening in the wake of Hurricane Katrina, the yield curve has started flattening quickly. The difference in yield between two-year and 10-year Treasury notes -- a popular measure of the curve -- tightened to less than 0.09 percentage point in midday New York trading yesterday. That compares with a low of about 0.11 percentage point before Katrina hit and a historical average of 0.75 percentage point. If the trend continues, as many market professionals expect it to do, short rates could rise above long rates in what is called an inverted yield curve, an event that typically precedes economic recessions.

Linda Piazza : 11/16/2005 9:02:38 AM

I'm still having difficulty with my email from readers. You get one problem repaired and another one pops up. Another late-night call to Comcast resulted in some poor guy reading from a prepared set of steps to tell me what to try, none of which worked. I have again called someone to come to the house. That's what we all should be doing for a living, but I don't begrudge him his charges and am grateful that it's not like the old days, when you dropped your computer off somewhere and maybe saw it in a month, if you were lucky.

Jonathan Levinson : 11/16/2005 9:01:22 AM

Headline:

CAPITAL FLOWS TO U.S. RISE TO RECORD $101.9 BLN IN SEPTEMBER

Linda Piazza : 11/16/2005 8:55:13 AM

OEX Trade Signals
Some of you may have missed my statement earlier in the week that I'm not posting any signals this week. I am trading in isolation, trying to fine-tune signals.

What I'm finding so far is that my signals are true scalps, and that they're going to require a high-delta option, which I've already discussed ad nauseam, but also some skill in getting between the bid and the ask, and the need to act immediately. I may not have time to provide anything more than "enter now" and "exit now" signals, with explanations to follow, if you're to benefit at all. I'm still watching, but these trades can't be milked for a little extra movement. They turn quickly.

Jonathan Levinson : 11/16/2005 8:53:46 AM

Crude oil has recovered to a .15 loss at 56.825, off a low of 56.65 as gold trades +.6.3 at a new high of 475.30. Link Next resistance is at 476-477, above which the year highs come into view above 480.

Linda Piazza : 11/16/2005 8:48:29 AM

I thought yesterday's scenario had set up for a doji or some other candle indicating indecision, or for an actual decline. The day produced an actual decline, with the OEX's close completing a non-classic version of an evening-star reversal signal. A classic evening star wouldn't have had that punch higher, but, as I mentioned late yesterday, even the great Nison gives some leeway to behavior at resistance or behavior by indices rather than specific stocks.

Our problem is the OEX's usual tendency to move big and then spend days or sometimes weeks consolidating in 4-6 point ranges. The range from yesterday's high down to the 200-sma at 564.76 and back again would make a natural place at which to see such a pattern set up again. Unless the OEX plunges straight through that average on any drop today, if one should occur, we can probably expect to see some dip-buying, and maybe some of you will be among the dip-buyers. Right now, the OEX's 30-minute chart shows a channel that spans from 564.65 on the bottom to 570.47 on the top, all at 30-minute closes.

If the OEX should rise this morning, I'll be watching 567.56-567.82 resistance to see if it holds on 30-minute closes. If it doesn't hold, then a retest of yesterday's high might be likely. If that resistance does hold, a test of the 200-sma might be possible. Unless the OEX plunges through that MA and other support in that zone, bears should consider closing at least part of their positions, if not all, if it's touched. If the OEX should plunge straight through that average, next support is at about 563.40, but strongest support is probably near 561-562. Until and unless that plunge happens, we should probably expect some dip-buying near the 200-sma and -ema's, if they're touched. I would not be surprised to see a range from 563.50 to 570 or so be established over the next few days. The exception would be if there are a lot of weak hands among the bulls and the OEX crashes through those 200-sma's and -ema's. Your contingency plan should include either possibility--a holding of that support or a crash through it. Know what you'll do in either case. Know the same about any test of the 570-571 zone, and what you'll do if the OEX finds resistance there and what you'll do if it bursts through it. I'll be making further observations as the day goes on.

Jonathan Levinson : 11/16/2005 8:33:38 AM

QQQQ pulls back to 40.56 after testing 40.60 resistance, while gold and silver hold their gains, gold +6.1 at 475.1, silver +.108 at 7.895.

Jonathan Levinson : 11/16/2005 8:33:02 AM

Ten year notes extend their gains, TNX -1.4 bps to 4.543%. IRX holds steady at a -.8 bp loss at 3.907%.

Jonathan Levinson : 11/16/2005 8:32:27 AM

Headlines:

U.S. OCT. REAL WEEKLY WAGES UP 0.4%

U.S. OCT. CORE CPI UP 0.2% AS EXPECTED

U.S. CPI UP 4.3% IN PAST YEAR

U.S. CORE CPI UP 2.1% IN PAST YEAR

U.S. OCT. CPI ENERGY PRICES FALL 0.2%

U.S. OCT. CPI MEDICAL PRICES UP 0.5%

U.S. OCT. CPI HOUSING PRICES UP 0.9% ON HOTELS

U.S. OCT. CPI NEW CAR PRICES UP 0.5%

Jonathan Levinson : 11/16/2005 8:31:37 AM

CPI and Core CPI +.2% respectively vs. unchanged and +.2% exp.

Jonathan Levinson : 11/16/2005 8:31:14 AM

Still waiting for the CPI data.

Jonathan Levinson : 11/16/2005 8:30:38 AM

Headlines :

U.S. SEPT. BUSINESS INVENTORIES UP 0.5% VS 0.3% EXPECTED

U.S. SEPT. BUSINESS SALES UP 0.6%

U.S. SEPT. RETAIL INVENTORIES UP 0.9%

U.S. SEPT. INVENTORIES-SALES RATIO FALLS TO RECORD LOW 1.25

Jonathan Levinson : 11/16/2005 8:27:04 AM

Session highs for gold and silver at 474.5 and 7.859. Ten year notes hold a 3/64 gain on the ZN future, with TNX quoted -.2 bps at 4.555%, IRX -.8 bps at 3.907%.

Jonathan Levinson : 11/16/2005 8:19:47 AM

Headline:

CHINA CONFIRMS FIRST 3 HUMAN BIRD FLU CASES: BBC

Jonathan Levinson : 11/16/2005 8:17:24 AM

A sudden flurry of activity with NQ spiking to a high at 1654.5, ten year notes to a 108 1/2 high, QQQQ up to a 7 cent gain at 40.59. Still 13 minutes to go until the scheduled release of the 8:30 data.

Jonathan Levinson : 11/16/2005 7:31:17 AM

From the Mortgage Bankers Association website:

WASHINGTON, D.C. (November 16, 2005) -The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) today released its Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending November 11. The Market Composite Index - a measure of mortgage loan application volume - was 657.6 a decrease of 0.6 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from 661.3, one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 12.1 percent compared with the previous week and was down 13.7 percent compared with the same week one year earlier. The seasonally adjusted figures include an additional adjustment for Veteran's Day.

The seasonally-adjusted Purchase Index increased by 2.6 percent to 477.9 from 465.7 the previous week whereas the Refinance Index decreased by 5.4 percent to 1702.4 from 1798.8 one week earlier. Other seasonally adjusted index activity includes the Conventional Index, which decreased 0.7 percent to 980.8 from 988.2 the previous week, and the Government Index, which increased 2.2 percent to 118.1 from 115.6 the previous week.

The four week moving average for the seasonally-adjusted Market Index is down 2.9 percent to 661.2 from 681.2. The four week moving average is down 1.4 percent to 461.9 from 468.4 for the Purchase Index while this average is down 5.1 percent to 1820.2 from 1918.5 for the Refinance Index.

The refinance share of mortgage activity decreased to 40.4 percent of total applications from 41.7 percent the previous week. The adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) share of activity increased to 32.9 percent of total applications from 31.6 percent the previous week. ...

Jonathan Levinson : 11/16/2005 7:30:20 AM

Equities are down slightly, ES trading 1231.75, NQ 1651.5, YM 10707 and QQQQ +.04 at 40.56. Gold is up 3.4 to 472.40, silver is up .025 to 7.812, ten year notes are up 1/64 to 108 23/64, crude oil is down .30 to 56.675 and natgas is up .13 to 11.695.

We await the 8:30 release of the CPI and core CPI, est. unchanged and +.02% respectively, and Business Inventories, est. .3%. At 9AM it's Net Foreign Purchaes, prior 91.3B, then at 10:30, the Petroleum Report.

Linda Piazza : 11/16/2005 6:59:22 AM

Good morning. The Nikkei achieved a four-year closing high last night, and other Asian markets turned in positive performances, too. European markets turn lower, however. As of 6:50 EST, gold was higher by $2.90 to $471.90, and crude was lower by $0.23 to $56.75. More details about Asian and European markets follows in succeeding paragraphs.

Although beginning the day under water, the Nikkei bounced above the flat-line level by midmorning, and it closed higher by 79.10 points or 0.56%, at 14,170.87. The close achieved a four-year closing high. This occurred on a day when President Bush was meeting with Prime Minister Koizumi, expected to praise the Japanese leader and call for China to continue revaluation of the yuan. Also, crude prices dropped to a four-month low, helping those issues sensitive to higher prices. Steel-related stocks gained. Toyota Motor Corp. was one of the stocks gaining in early trading with many other car manufacturers seeing their stock rise in early trading. In other stock-related news, Sanyo Electric Co. Ltd. gained after announcing debt-reducing plans.

Other Asian markets turned in positive performances last night, too. The Taiwan Weighted gained 0.26%, and South Korea's Kospi rose 1.06%. South Korea achieved a record closing high. EBay will set up Asian headquarters in South Korea, a Marketwatch.com article says. After the close, Samsung announced that it was talking to Apple Computer, Inc. about a possible long-term contract to supply Apple with chips. Singapore's Straits Times rose 0.62%, and Hong Kong's Hang Seng climbed 0.16%. China's Shanghai Composite rose 0.77%. Skype, recently bought by eBay, has been negotiating with Chinese state-owned telecoms operators to launch its service in China. In other news, China has had its first confirmed case of bird flu in a human.

Asian markets might have turned in positive performances, but European markets turn lower this morning, pressured in part by poor performances from oil majors. Italy's trade balanced widened, with import prices driven higher by crude costs. In the U.K., there were more unemployment claims than expected and wages moderated, but the unemployment rate stayed steady at 2.8%. The Eurozone's October HICP's (Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices) final number was unchanged from the estimated figure. Prices ex-energy and food rose 1.5%, higher than September's 1.4%. In the U.K., the Bank of England's quarterly inflation report states that the CPI would likely achieve the 2.0% target in two years. Consumer spending remained rather weak. Western European automobile registrations dropped 2.6% in October, partly impacted by a strike in Spain, but automakers gained in early trading, perhaps due to the lower crude costs.

Also pressuring bourses were disappointing earnings releases. One came from German power company RWE. Other companies with disappointing reports were Swiss staffing firm Adecco SA and British supermarket J. Sainsbury.

As of 6:52 EST, the FTSE 100 was lower by 45.10 points or 0.83%, at 5,394.50. The CAC 40 was lower by 42.74 points or 0.94%, at 4,500.41. The DAX was lower by 40.06 points or 0.78%, at 5,070.55.

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