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Jeff Bailey : 11/23/2005 1:21:01 AM

Program Trading Levels for Wednesday ... HL Camp & Company has their computers set for program buying at $+2.76 and set for program selling at $+0.89.

Jeff Bailey : 11/23/2005 1:04:36 AM

nq05z ... Tab! You have a great trade going in the UOPIX. I have to agree with you that indications are still in "bull mode." I thought we would get a "rest" based on Friday's settlement and pre-option expiration action. However, Monday's settlement back above 1,688 once again/still bullish. I slapped your 10-day exponential moving average on the NQ chart with the "bullish 38.2%" retracement I've been using. I can see your near-term 1,735 target in play. NQ chart at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 11/23/2005 12:31:27 AM

PRICE weighted Dow Industrials components with associated sector bullish % symbols at this Link ... Note: American Express (AXP) $51.75 Link spun off its financial planning, asset management and insurance division Ameriprice Financial (AMP) $42.15 Link on 10/03/05.

Tab Gilles : 11/23/2005 12:19:24 AM

Follow-up on 2 positions

NASDAQ100 ($NDX)/ Profund UOPIX As per 11/2 11:51 AM & 11/3 12:45 PM posts.

1/2 positions entered 10/26 @ $22.66 & 11/2 @ $23.66, average cost basis $23.16. Closing NAV on 11/22/05 was $26.09...+ 12.65% to date.

Charts still signaling to maintain long position. However, as stated on 11/18 10:33 AM post I had intiated a trailing stop using the 10-ema. Link

Upside nearterm targeting 1735 and a longside peak of 1800. Link

Nasdaq Summation Index ($NASI) Both the daily and weekly NASI charts are still in bull mode....no reversal as of yet. Link Link Link Link

The other position, actually a 1/2 position is in Murphy Oil (MUR) entered back on 11/16 @ $48, trailing stop set at 10-ema. Per 11/16 12:10 PM post.

Todays close was at$50.31; up $2.31 / +4.81%. Next level to test is $51 Fibonacci retrace. Link

I'll be busy Wednesday, wishing all a Happy Thanksgiving...enjoy the day with family and friends.

Jeff Bailey : 11/22/2005 11:46:52 PM

Internals continue to strengthen ... Market internals continued to show sign of strength at Tuesday's close. On Monday, the very broad NYSE Bullish % ($BPNYA) Link reversed up to "bear correction" status at 58%, with roughly 1,740 of 3,000 stocks now showing a point and figure buy signal. Tuesday's action found this broad measure of breadth adding an additional 1.12%.

This action shows bullish breadth broadening out after the also-broad S&P 500 Bullish % ($BPSPX) Link reversed up to "bull confirmed" status at 58% on November 4.

Here's a quick look at Dorsey/Wright & Associates' sector bell curve from 11/04/05 to 11/22/05 at this Link .

The narrower NASDAQ-100 Bullish % ($BPNDX) Link , which reversed back up to "bull confirmed" status on 11/03/05, was unchanged at 60% bullish today.

The very broad NASDAQ Composite Bullish % ($BPCOMPQ) Link (roughly 3,000 stocks) remains in "bear confirmed" status at 48.01%, and would currently need a 50% measure to reverse up to "bear correction" status.

The narrow S&P 100 Bullish % ($BPOEX) was unchanged at 60% after Tuesday's trade and remains in "bear confirmed" status. It would currently take a 62% reading for this market to reverse up to "bear confirmed" status.

The very narrow (just 30 stocks) Dow Industrials Bullish % ($BPINDU) Link was unchanged at 56.66% and remains in "bear alert" status. It would currently take a reversing higher 60% reading for this market to achieve "bull confirmed" status.

OI Technical Staff : 11/22/2005 9:59:59 PM

The Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

Disclaimer: Stocks discussed in the Market Monitor are for educational purposes only and any analysis is not meant to imply a recommendation for or against that stock. The analysts in this forum as on any other website are prohibited by the SEC from giving any specific advice to ANY individual trader. All information posted is for ALL readers and is not meant to be directed to any individual. Our analysts cannot answer any email questions regarding any specific stock. Please do not ask and please do not take offense if requests are denied.

Results posted in the Market Monitor are hypothetical and OIN does not claim that any reader achieved these exact results. Due to the lag time between research, writing, posting, uploading, reading and execution there will be differences between the actual signal given and the fill achieved by the reader. Fills may be better or worse but in most cases they will be different. The writers will make every effort to give advance notice of intended signals and indicate potential price targets. Your individual results may vary depending on your activity level and aggressiveness. This forum is intended as an education service only. Trading involves risk and should not be attempted by anyone not ready to accept this risk. By acting on any signal in this forum you agree and personally accept this risk.

Jeff Bailey : 11/22/2005 5:54:28 PM

Daily/Weekly/Monthly Pivot Matrix for tomorrow at this Link ... In YELLOW I mark some correlative levels for tomorrow. For those that currently hold my QQQQ Jan. $42 Put (QQQ-MP) long from Monday's open, my $0.85 stop may be about $0.05-$0.10 too tight, as it may be "destiny" for the QQQQ to trade $41.94, if not $42.00.

Still, today's continued observation of heavy PUT SELLING continues to suggest that institutions are on the short side, and wrong side and still trying to get squared up.

BIX.X continues to impress with a CLOSE above WEEKLY R2/MONTHLY R2 and that has never been a good sign for the bears/sellers, including those among the major indices.

LIGHT BLUE with underlined black are levels that have been traded.

Jeff Bailey : 11/22/2005 5:09:48 PM

Closing U.S. Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 11/22/2005 5:01:40 PM

Closing Internals found at this Link ... Volume at the NYSE was brisk, especially for a pre-holiday trade. NASDAQ was heavy considering pre-holiday and current November average daily volume of 1.81 billion and October's 1.76 billion average daily volume.

5-day NH/NL ratios at both the NYSE and NASDAQ reversed back above their intermediate-term 10-day NH/NL ratios

Jeff Bailey : 11/22/2005 4:32:47 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles found at this Link

Today's Activity ... As WellPoint (WLP) set for test of PINK bullishly fit $79.22, I raised stop on the WLP Dec. $75 Calls (WLP-LO) with trigger of $78.45 on the underlying (technical/account managment notes) Link . As WLP traded $78.45, we were stopped at the bid of $4.20 in the WLP-LO ($+0.80, or 23.53%).

Jonathan Levinson : 11/22/2005 3:56:44 PM

QQQQ's 30 min cycle upphase is stalling just below overbought territory, while the 60 min cycle continues to advance at the top of its range. This is so far just a short cycle pullback at the highs, though the pattern could be taking the form of a head and shoulders at the top of the move. Link

Linda Piazza : 11/22/2005 3:57:11 PM

For the second time this afternoon, the OEX tests the rising regression channel's resistance, showing bearish divergence when compared to the last test at about 3:10-3:15. We're likely going to have to wait until tomorrow to see if the OEX rolls down through the channel again, with the midline support now at about 578.45 and the bottom support now at about 576.70, or if it breaks out. It could produce a last-minute breakout, but I really wouldn't trust that, if it did. Tomorrow, but all the signs are there for a rolldown through the channel at least to the midline. They're the same signs there on 11/18 and twice yesterday. The OEX didn't quite get to the bottom of the channel either of those times, but did get to the midline, so even if the OEX is strong, it's likely to pull back toward 578.50. Unless it's just going to go parabolic, which can't be ruled out.

Linda Piazza : 11/22/2005 3:47:54 PM

TRAN keeps climbing.

Linda Piazza : 11/22/2005 3:46:39 PM

The OEX is coming up to retest the top of that rising regression channel again, also to test the day's high at 580.16, with the OEX now at 580.04.

Jonathan Levinson : 11/22/2005 3:41:37 PM

QQQQ is breaking 41.75 support and the short cycle (top oscillator pane) is rolling over, while the wavelet (middle oscillator pane) tries to bottom. So far, these wavelet bottoms have provided real support for the Qs on the pullback, resulting in at least sideways-upward chop through their upphases. Only a weak bounce to a lower high would suggest real short cycle weakness building. Failing that, it remains a bullish chart. Link

Linda Piazza : 11/22/2005 3:37:10 PM

Today the SOX pierced a slightly descending trendline off the August 2 high. As I type, it's pulling back to/below that trendline, leaving only a candle shadow above it. SOX at 483.66 as I type, but lots of time left to change that picture.

Linda Piazza : 11/22/2005 3:34:05 PM

Depending on how you draw that inverse H&S on the BIX's chart, a not completely trustworthy continuation-form H&S, there might still be another couple of points before the BIX hits the upside target, with that target at about 369.92. Of course, I guess you could consider that a cup-and-handle formation, which is a valid continuation formation. Lots of bearish divergences going on in that chart, too.

Jeff Bailey : 11/22/2005 3:31:52 PM

03:00 Internals found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 11/22/2005 3:29:40 PM

The advdec line punched right back above that line that had marked a possible short-term change in tenor. There's the potential for a H&S on the advdec line's one-minute chart.

Linda Piazza : 11/22/2005 3:28:48 PM

TRAN still climbing.

Jeff Bailey : 11/22/2005 3:27:36 PM

Bullish call stop alert on the two (2) WellPoint WLP Dec. $75 Calls (WLP-LO) at the bid of $4.20.

WLP $78.47 after trade at $78.45

Linda Piazza : 11/22/2005 3:27:35 PM

TRAN still near its high of the day, with that high at 4179.58.

Linda Piazza : 11/22/2005 3:26:08 PM

We also need to see the OEX's 15-minute RSI dip below 50 as a first sign of any short-term change in tenor. On each dip through that rising regression channel depicted in my 3:21:02 post, the 15-minute RSI has dipped toward 50, but not below it. RSI at 64.44 as I type, headed down.

Jeff Bailey : 11/22/2005 3:24:40 PM

June 2006 Fed Funds futures (ff06m) alert "jumps" higher to 95.39. Currently predicting 40% chance of three (3) more 25 bp rate hikes.

On November 9, traded a contract low of 95.20 and 120% chance of three (3) more 25 bp rate hikes.

Jane Fox : 11/22/2005 3:24:46 PM

Unfortunately any bearishness you see in the VIX is currently being negated by these two. Link

Jonathan Levinson : 11/22/2005 3:22:41 PM

QQQQ is pulling back with slightly better volume on this attempt, while volume breadth remains positive +1.5:1. Below 41.75, there will be the possibility that this decline impacts the still-rising short cycle, though it will take a break of 72 SMA support at R1 to confirm a new downphase: Link

Linda Piazza : 11/22/2005 3:22:33 PM

For the first time since the post-FOMC minutes zoom, the advdec line is dropping beneath support at 992. That signals a slight, emphasis on "slight" change in tenor. If there's not a big downdraft soon, then scared bears are going to start covering into the close and it won't matter that there's been that slight change in tenor. Advdec line at 910 as I type, QCharts value.

Jane Fox : 11/22/2005 3:21:51 PM

Earlier I mentioned that the VIX has been a leading internal these last few days so the bearishness you see here should be noted. Link

Linda Piazza : 11/22/2005 3:21:01 PM

Bulls, especially OEX bulls, keep following the OEX higher with your stops. Here's where the OEX is with respect to one version of a rising regression channel, with this channel seeming to have some validity because of what RSI does at each test of the resistance: Link I've seen indices break over similar formations and go parabolic, so it's no guarantee that just because touches of the top of the channel complete with RSI over 70 have signaled downturns through the channel before, that it will do so now, but it's certainly a possibility.

Linda Piazza : 11/22/2005 3:15:50 PM

I kind of hope the TRAN hits 4200 this afternoon. Let's get the TRAN up to that upper envelope and reinstitute some sanity here.

Linda Piazza : 11/22/2005 3:15:22 PM

OEX hit 580. It's above the strongest resistance on that long-term band I've had marked on my charts. We'll see tomorrow, perhaps, whether a pullback to that zone looks like a good entry. I wish the OEX weren't almost a full 10 points above its 10-sma, however. That makes it vulnerable to a deeper decline.

Linda Piazza : 11/22/2005 3:12:52 PM

TRAN still climbing. Showing bearish price/RSI divergences up through the 240-minute chart, building since the November 3.

Linda Piazza : 11/22/2005 3:10:38 PM

Advdec line testing stronger resistance on the 15-minute chart. On a strong day, it often ends at this resistance, as it did yesterday, for example, and as it did Friday, November 11. On November 7, it actually dropped from this resistance at the end of the day.

One caution: this is a day-to-day guideline, and it all starts over the next day. Often, when there's a close at or above that line, the next day sees a pullback near the open, but sometimes only a minor pullback and sometimes from a higher open. So, if the OEX were hitting this early in the day, it would be more significant perhaps.

Right now, the advdec line would have to drop beneath 850 or so to begin to signal even a short-term change in trend, with the advdec line now at 1071, QCharts value.

Jeff Bailey : 11/22/2005 3:09:15 PM

Dow Jones Home Construction Index (DJUSHB) alert 951.14 +1.49% ... pulling free of its rising 200-day SMA (919.92)

Jonathan Levinson : 11/22/2005 3:08:53 PM

QQQQ rises to a new high at 41.82 as NQ breaks 1700. The intraday cycles continue to work their way higher with room to run to the close, the short cycle indicators just now starting to enter overbought territory: Link

Jeff Bailey : 11/22/2005 3:08:11 PM

03:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jane Fox : 11/22/2005 3:07:05 PM

Do not even think of shorting until you see a top in the AD volume and AD line. This is a bullish market and you have to be very careful with shorts.

Jeff Bailey : 11/22/2005 3:05:38 PM

Junk offering ... Greektown Holdings, which is casino owned by the Sautl Ste. Marie Tribe of Chippewa Indians and which owns Detroit-based Greektown Casino LLC sold $185 million of eight-year unsecured notes in a Rule 144a private placement.

Greektown did pay up to get the deal done, in what has been an anemic junk market. Greektown priced its offering at a discount of 98.693 to yield 11.00%, compared with official price guidance from underwriter Merrill Lynch of 9.75% to 10%.

Linda Piazza : 11/22/2005 3:03:06 PM

Advdec line now needs to drop below about 720 to even begin to change the upward trend. Advdec line now at 898, QCharts value.

Linda Piazza : 11/22/2005 3:01:36 PM

RLX climbing strongly, approaching the 11/14 high of 470.15, with the RLX at 469.29.

Linda Piazza : 11/22/2005 3:00:27 PM

BIX accelerating its climb.

Jonathan Levinson : 11/22/2005 3:00:17 PM

Session high for ten year notes here at 109 19/64, TNX down 3.3 bps at 4.428% heading into the cash close. Link

Linda Piazza : 11/22/2005 3:00:07 PM

SOX at a new high for the day.

Linda Piazza : 11/22/2005 2:58:40 PM

I can't keep up with these. Higher high now on the OEX, with the OEX now near the top of a rising regression channel roughly in place sincde the 18th.

Linda Piazza : 11/22/2005 2:57:20 PM

The advdec line broke out on the 10-mintue chart on the close of the last 10-minute candle. It's now approaching the next resistance I mentioned, near +1000, except that resistance is now at +1033. The advdec line has now reached overdone levels on charts all the way up through the 15-minute time interval, and way overdone on the shorter-term ones. The advdec line would have to fall beneath 600 or so to even begin to change its tenor, however. Advdec line at 861 as I type, having just punched up to 935.

Jane Fox : 11/22/2005 2:57:20 PM

... but with AD volume and AD line making new daily highs I wouldn't be thinking about shorting yet.

Jane Fox : 11/22/2005 2:56:07 PM

VIX is not confirming ES's new daily highs and the first sign that we may be seeing a top here.

Linda Piazza : 11/22/2005 2:53:57 PM

Just before the FOMC minutes, I said that the TRAN needed to confirm that H&S on its 15-minute chart within the next few minutes or else bulls would send the TRAN up higher and invalidate the formation. That was an understatement, wasn't it?

Jeff Bailey : 11/22/2005 2:52:10 PM

Sell Program Premium ... DIA $108.50, SPX 1,258.91, QQQQ $41.75

Linda Piazza : 11/22/2005 2:51:44 PM

Equal high test on the OEX. Bearish divergence on the five-minute chart. And it serves only as a warning to bulls, not as a signal to enter bearish positions . . . blah, blah, blah.

Linda Piazza : 11/22/2005 2:50:30 PM

TRAN still climbing toward that target and strong resistance in that chart I posted. The TRAN has never closed a week above this channel line, not since the middle of 1997, although it has pierced it intraweek by a few points. Could always be a first time, and I have a feeling we'll find out soon.

Jonathan Levinson : 11/22/2005 2:48:38 PM

I'm taking an early exit rather than wait for a repeat of every other consolidation at the highs. While it feels like there's selling waiting to happen, every consolidation for the last 3 weeks has ended in a new surge higher. The short cycle is still rising, breadth is still positive, and there was plenty of time for the bulls to exit on this sideways dip. Link

Jane Fox : 11/22/2005 2:47:57 PM

Although the AD volume and line have come from well below 0 they continue to make higher highs and making the bears hair stand up on end - again.

Linda Piazza : 11/22/2005 2:47:41 PM

The advdec is line still climbing, trying to break out over that 10-minute resistance at about 590, with the advdec line now at 629, QCharts value and with several minutes left in the period. Because these numbers are so large, these resistance lines can change quickly.

Jane Fox : 11/22/2005 2:46:35 PM

TICKS are strong today.

Jonathan Levinson : 11/22/2005 2:46:18 PM

QQQQ - Exit Point Alert -

Out QQQQ at 41.70, +.01.

Linda Piazza : 11/22/2005 2:45:52 PM

The OEX broke out again on its five-minute chart, but now has slipped back inside those channels, testing the resistance again. That resistance is from 578.29-578.76 on five-minute closes, with the OEX currently at 578.37. This is the point from which a pullback (pullback, not necessarily deep downdraft) might occur, but if the OEX is going to do that, it usually signals it with a strong red candle on that five-minute chart. Haven't had that yet, so the danger of another breakout remains.

Linda Piazza : 11/22/2005 2:46:11 PM

The TRAN is now less than 50 points away from this target and likely strong resistance area, although the inverse H&S's target is a little higher: Link

Jeff Bailey : 11/22/2005 2:44:01 PM

Notable PUT SELLING in both the QQQQ Dec. $41 Puts (QQQ-XO) and Jan $41 puts (QQQ-MO) leading up to the FOMC minutes release today. This could well have a $41 floor (less premiums received) being established.

Linda Piazza : 11/22/2005 2:42:29 PM

Broadening formation now on the TRAN's 15-minute chart? If so, the top of that broadening formation could expand all the way up to the 4200-4275 zone that's target and strong resistance on that old envelope chart I've been showing and also for the TRAN's continuation-form (and so not to be trusted completely) inverse H&S. Crazy.

Jonathan Levinson : 11/22/2005 2:37:35 PM

Volume breadth +1.35:1 on the NYSE, +1.5:1 on the Nasdaq.

Linda Piazza : 11/22/2005 2:35:30 PM

The advdec line's 10-minute resistance continues to hold. The advdec line's move is extreme on a 10-minute basis.

I don't trust any of this, either direction. We're just seeing wild spikes to the upside, sometimes reversed and sometimes not. Today, we've even seen a few spikes to the downside, violating what had looked to be important support, only to see those reversed. This is crazy stuff.

Jeff Bailey : 11/22/2005 2:33:28 PM

QQQQ options chain just after FOMC minutes release at this Link ...

Jane Fox : 11/22/2005 2:27:54 PM

TICKS range today has moved to a bullish +1262 to -609.

Linda Piazza : 11/22/2005 2:27:24 PM

I'm watching the advdec line closely. It broke above the three-minute top Keltner resistance, with the three-minute chart one that I frequently watch, with the outer boundaries there sometimes marking important S/R. After the breakout, the advdec line dropped back inside the outside channel, but it's creeping upward just along the upper channel line again, not dropping further. The 10-minute is another key chart I watch, with this morning's downdraft in the advdec line stopping at this chart's support, for example. The advdec line has reached an extreme level on that chart, too, so unless it starts trending, it will soon be time for it to turn down according to this chart. It never convincingly broke out on that chart, although closing one ten-minute period above the resistance at about 530, and pushing a little above that again. If it can maintain these levels, there's a possibility of it pushing up toward +1000, but it's an iffy time for bulls right here.

Linda Piazza : 11/22/2005 2:19:45 PM

TRAN still dropping after that pop higher. Highly suspicious move.

Linda Piazza : 11/22/2005 2:18:31 PM

Be careful in case this has been a pop-and-drop move.

Jonathan Levinson : 11/22/2005 2:18:18 PM

QQQQ pulls back after blasting above the upper 30 and 60 min channels on huge volume. The pullback needs to be for real, not just sideways and slow. If the latter, I'll be exiting. No need to wait around for the bears to fail again. Link

Linda Piazza : 11/22/2005 2:17:44 PM

TRAN pulling back from its punch above yesterday's high. It looks like a big pullback on the five-minute chart, not so impressive on the 15-minute one, althoughit does leave a long upper shadow on that last 15-minute candle. The TRAN often pulls back after leaving such long upper shadows, but it doesn't always. That punch higher left another bearish divergence on the TRAN's 15-minute chart, with each swing high since the morning of the 18th leaving such bearish divergences.

Jeff Bailey : 11/22/2005 2:16:48 PM

Sell Program Premium ... DIA $108.46, SPX 1,258.03, QQQQ $41.70

Jeff Bailey : 11/22/2005 2:14:20 PM

02:00 Internals found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 11/22/2005 2:12:58 PM

So glad that the advdec line was climbing all day after the opening, except for one little dip. Kept me from entering or suggesting a new bearish play.

Bulls, be very careful here, with this news-driven rise. The advdec line is now rising into extreme levels on some short-term charts. It could climb the rest of the day, but it's already reached dangerously overdone levels on the three-minute and five-minute charts.

Jane Fox : 11/22/2005 2:11:02 PM

Normally the AD volume and line trumps the VIX but yesterday and today the VIX was bullish all day, while the AD volume and line were not and the day has ended up bullish thus the VIX has trumped the AD volume and line.

Jonathan Levinson : 11/22/2005 2:08:58 PM

QQQQ - Entry Point Alert -

Short QQQQ at 41.71, stop 41.80

Jane Fox : 11/22/2005 2:07:28 PM

How many times have we seen this? AD volume and AD line meandering with no direction then all of a sudden they both make new daily highs and take off. Link

Linda Piazza : 11/22/2005 2:06:28 PM

The OEX did not break out on the five-minute Keltner chart yet, as it did Friday (twice) and Monday (twice), but it's attempting to do so as I type, edging just above Keltner resistance on that chart at the beginning of this five-minute period. Still lots of minutes to go in this five-minute period, but no sign of a pullback yet.

Jonathan Levinson : 11/22/2005 2:06:15 PM

Volume breadth is up to +1.25:1 on the NYSE, +1.55:1 on the Nasdaq.

Jonathan Levinson : 11/22/2005 2:04:57 PM

QQQQ retested but did not break the prior high at 41.63: Link

Jonathan Levinson : 11/22/2005 2:04:22 PM

Ten year notes extend their gains, TNX now down 2 bps at 4.441%. IRX is down a hefty 7 bps at 3.825%.

Linda Piazza : 11/22/2005 2:03:00 PM

And there goes the TRAN rising, the advdec line moving higher, the OEX to a new high, but within that resistance band still.

Jeff Bailey : 11/22/2005 2:02:39 PM

02:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 11/22/2005 2:02:03 PM









Jane Fox : 11/22/2005 2:01:56 PM

These buy programs are getting down right dangerous.

Jane Fox : 11/22/2005 2:01:35 PM

TICKS +1000 again.

Jane Fox : 11/22/2005 2:00:48 PM

Dateline WSJ Gold futures traded at about $492 an ounce on the New York Mercantile Exchange, after briefly touching $496 in earlier trading. Gold prices have nearly doubled in the past four years, typically a sign that investors are worried about rising prices and want to put their money in something that won't fall in value as the dollar shrinks. Citing high energy prices, fairly low interest rates and U.S. trade and budget deficits, gold bulls have for months predicted that the dollar will collapse and that gold will rally to $500 and beyond. They may soon be vindicated. But gold's resurgence may not be a sure-fire indicator that you'll soon need to take a wheelbarrow full of greenbacks to the grocery store. Other measures of inflation expectations, including longer-term interest rates, still indicate that investors are fairly sanguine about future prices. For example, gold and 10-year Treasury yields usually move more or less in tandem. That hasn't happened in the latest gold rally. Bond investors may just be in denial; certainly, plenty of analysts think they are.

Jonathan Levinson : 11/22/2005 2:00:32 PM

FOMC minutes at this Link

Linda Piazza : 11/22/2005 1:59:49 PM

Here's the H&S formation on the TRAN, shown on a line drawing. Link

Jonathan Levinson : 11/22/2005 1:58:31 PM

Awaiting the FOMC minutes in 2 minutes.

Linda Piazza : 11/22/2005 1:57:01 PM

Here we go again: It's about time for the TRAN to confirm that H&S on its 15-minute chart, within the next 15 or 30 minutes. If it doesn't, that suggests that bears don't have enough strength to do that, and bulls will take that as a signal to send it higher again.

Jonathan Levinson : 11/22/2005 1:56:11 PM

Ten year notes slip negative, -1/32 at 108 63/64, TNX up .2 bps to 4.463%. IRX is down 4.3 bps at 3.852%.

Jonathan Levinson : 11/22/2005 1:53:28 PM

QQQ breaks rising intraday trendline support, but on very light volume: Link

Jeff Bailey : 11/22/2005 1:50:48 PM

DaimlerChrysler (DCX) $50.47 -2.62% Link ... Lower after news from Deutsche Bank (DB) $96.95 -0.26% Link that it is increasing the number of shares it is selling in the company (DCX) to 25 million from the 20 million originally planned. This will have Deutsche Bank's stake dropping to 4.4% from a previous level of 6.9%. The shares were sold in a range between 42.80 euros and 43.20 euros.

Linda Piazza : 11/22/2005 1:44:25 PM

VIX rising, but it's not above the benchmark three-minute 100/130-ema's I'm watching, with those at 10.88 and 10.92, respectively. The VIX retested these this morning and fell back from them, corroborating their validity.

The advdec line is attempting to rise again, into resistance near -290. Choppy evidence, still.

Linda Piazza : 11/22/2005 1:36:12 PM

I hesitate to mention this, but there's a big H&S-ish formation on the TRAN's 15-minute chart, descending neckline, at about 4133, depending on how the neckline is drawn. The left shoulder took a chunk out the middle of the day yesterday to form and now the right shoulder has been forming a similar chunk of time, and so it's time to start watching for either a confirmation or invalidation.

Linda Piazza : 11/22/2005 1:33:38 PM

Advdec line dropping big now, but toward support at -1200. Advdec line at -821, QCharts value, as I type.

Jonathan Levinson : 11/22/2005 1:32:36 PM

Today's narrow range coincides with an aimless, sideways stall in the 30 min cycle, while the 60 min cycle is just approaching overbought territory. This is potentially bearish, as a synchronous upphase in these cycles has gotten minimal price traction. With volume very thin and the range tight, there's the potential for a squeeze in either direction on the break, however, and those cycles could well just follow along. Forgetting the technicals, however, the fact remains that the Qs are more extended to the upside, having risen for 3 weeks without correction. A downside break would not be an unreasonable guess here, but the sideways tape reduces it to just that- a guess. A break of 41.50 targets the 41.36 session low, while above the day high, the bulls will have the ball.

Jeff Bailey : 11/22/2005 1:25:26 PM

10 Most Active ... MSFT $28.00 -0.56%, INTC $26.06 +3.20%, CSCO $17.36 +1.75%, CHTR $1.26 +1.61%, QQQQ $41.59 +0.09%, SPY $125.75 (unch), ORCL $12.37 -0.56%, SNDK $49.54 +5.76%, CPN $1.46 -16.57%, SIRI $7.10 -0.42%

Linda Piazza : 11/22/2005 1:28:36 PM

I think the OEX's resistance is strong enough that it should promote either one of the OEX's 4-6-point ranges to form. If that happens, there should be a pullback 4-6 points. Or this test should prompt a pullback all the way to the 10-sma, currently at 570.23, but rising steeply. Unfortunately, I'm not getting any setups yet that show the possibility for anything other than chop, and markets keep defying one resistance level after another. No matter what I "think," I need some confirmation before a bearish play and a rising advdec line is not giving it to me.

Jonathan Levinson : 11/22/2005 1:21:58 PM

Back. Volume breadth is up to 1:1 on the Nasdaq and +1.5:1 on the NYSE. QQQQ made a break to new highs at R1 and failed, back to within the rising triangle apex. Link

Linda Piazza : 11/22/2005 1:20:59 PM

What games are going on today. Bears trapped, bulls trapped, all being stopped out of just-entered plays. For once, I'm glad that the signals were so mixed, because it's kept us out of this chop.

Jeff Bailey : 11/22/2005 1:18:49 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 11/22/2005 1:16:29 PM

TRAN still climbing, too, off the low tested a few minutes ago.

Linda Piazza : 11/22/2005 1:15:51 PM

OEX coiling at the top of its climb.

Linda Piazza : 11/22/2005 1:15:18 PM

So far, advdec line still climbing.

Linda Piazza : 11/22/2005 1:10:12 PM

Equal high test on the OEX. Major bearish divergence so far up through the 15-minute Keltner chart, with resistance on that chart up to 577.69, but the advdec line still climbs and we know a lot of that money has been going into big caps these days.

Jeff Bailey : 11/22/2005 1:10:03 PM

01:00 Internals found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 11/22/2005 1:06:00 PM

Advdec line still climbing. TRAN bounced strongly from that trendline I mentioned and from the five-minute 130-ema, breaking the trend of lower five-minute highs.

Linda Piazza : 11/22/2005 1:04:58 PM

What tricks are being played on us today. There's a break of an important trendline, tricking some bears (not us) into new entries, and then, snap, they're trapped. At least for now.

Jeff Bailey : 11/22/2005 1:04:00 PM

01:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 11/22/2005 1:03:11 PM

And there goes the OEX back up to test that former rising trendline off the 11/16 congestion zone. I'm not yet at Keene's point of thinking that it's a useless trendline, but I may be soon.

The advdec line's action kept me from being too bearish, but the strong overhead resistance keeps me from being too bullish, either, unless the OEX has broken through and then come back to retest the former resistance.

Jane Fox : 11/22/2005 1:02:50 PM

TICKS +1000 and the bulls are pulling the provebial rabbit out of the hat again.

Linda Piazza : 11/22/2005 1:00:04 PM

Everything is a mess. The OEX is dropping again from that long-term support/resistance area I've had marked on my charts for years. Yet, the advdec line is well off its low and trending up, although currently pausing. The VIX cannot stay above the three-minute 100/130-ema's. The TRAN tests important support, and could either bounce or fail, but such a mixture of signs exists that absolutely anything could still happen.

Linda Piazza : 11/22/2005 12:57:09 PM

The TRAN has been building a bearish right triangle, but it did other times, too, and broke higher. The TRAN is testing today's low of 4136.85, now being at 4137.62, also testing a trendline that's been support since Friday morning, now located at about 4135.75. Bounce or failure?

Jeff Bailey : 11/22/2005 12:57:48 PM

US Energy Secretary ... DJ - Confident Saudis will meet oil capacity target

Oil Ministers agree mid-$50/bbl price too high.

US still mulling strategic gas reserve strategy.

Linda Piazza : 11/22/2005 12:54:33 PM

The OEX is dropping below the trendline rising from 11/16. Watch out for the possibility that it could drop down to about 576, where yesterday's rising trendline is now located, and then rise back into a retest. The advdec line is not yet supporting anything bearish, as it's been rising since the early plunge.

Jane Fox : 11/22/2005 12:42:15 PM

VIX takes a bullish jump to a new daily low but with the AD line and volume still below 0 I am still on the sidelines. I also cannot make a lot of comments on the mess the markets are in today.

Linda Piazza : 11/22/2005 12:31:07 PM

The OEX continues testing that trendline in which it's climbed since 11/16. It's now squeezed between that rising trendline and 15-minute resistance that looks firm, up to 577.42. One or the other is going to break.

Linda Piazza : 11/22/2005 12:21:05 PM

The OEX's trendline rising since 11/16 now crosses at about 576.85, although perhaps it needs to be lowered a bit to accommodate this morning's early piercing of that trendline, soo reversed.

Jonathan Levinson : 11/22/2005 12:18:51 PM

I need to step away for approx. 45 minutes here.

Linda Piazza : 11/22/2005 12:17:48 PM

Advdec line still climbing. BIX still negative, but it isn't moving much. The same is true of the RLX.

Linda Piazza : 11/22/2005 12:16:57 PM

I think it would take a TRAN five-minute close beneath 4135 to get things started to the downside, and then there's gap support near 4130. TRAN at 4140.73 as I type.

Jeff Bailey : 11/22/2005 12:16:52 PM

12:00 Internals found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 11/22/2005 12:15:51 PM

The TRAN isn't playing its usual leadership role today, mostly finding resistance at its five-minute 21-ema on five-minute closes, with that average at 4142.56. The TRAN now tests the five-minute 100/130-ema's, having tested and broken through the two and three-minute versions.

Linda Piazza : 11/22/2005 12:08:41 PM

So the long signal I was getting this morning (see my 9:55:19 post) would have been a profitable one, but if I'd put readers into a long trade then, I'd be pulling them out of that trade now, to watch the retest of resistance. I would at least be suggesting partial profit and a tightening of stops. That's what I would suggest for you bulls out there.

Jeff Bailey : 11/22/2005 12:04:23 PM

12:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 11/22/2005 12:03:09 PM

Advdec line still climbing.

Jonathan Levinson : 11/22/2005 12:03:02 PM

QQQQ holds 3 cents off the high and rising triangle resistance, on what is so far a strong wavelet bounce- strong enough to stall the short cycle downphase in the early going. A break above 41.60 should be enough to turn it up. Volume remains very light and the price action very slow during the past hour. Link

Jane Fox : 11/22/2005 12:01:48 PM

TICKS range today so far as been an anemic 782 to -607.

Jane Fox : 11/22/2005 11:59:24 AM

The VIX just made a bullish new daily low but the AD line and volume are still bearish below 0 so I'm still not going to try and trade this.

Linda Piazza : 11/22/2005 11:56:19 AM

The OEX's five-minute Keltner resistance climbs and the OEX climbs with it. The OEX is holding minimally to that rising trendline in place since 11/16, bouncing a little less exuberantly from it today than it has been doing. Of coruse, the day is far form over yet.

Linda Piazza : 11/22/2005 11:54:57 AM

The way the VIX crawls along the descending 240-minute Keltner support that's now at 10.98, since about 11/17, looks so much like the way it did last December, from about 12/20/04-12/23/04. The RSI was a little lower during that period, but the RSI is already now at a low not often seen on that chart. The last few times were 7/14, 4/08, 2/01-2/04, and then that December period.

Even a cursory look at the equity charts will show you that this is not a good market-timing tool, as the VIX often started higher again ahead of an equity pullback, particularly in that February period, when equities actually bounced higher after an initial pullback. Still, keep this on your radar screen.

Jane Fox : 11/22/2005 11:53:04 AM

The month of October and November have been two very clear examples as to why I like trading bear markets as opposed to bull markets. Even though this bullish rally started about around October 20th the month of October was mostly bearish and it was one my best trading months. The whole month of November has been bullish and my account has suffered proportionally. This is because fear is a stronger emotion than greed and when markets start to fall they feed on themselves, which does not happen when markets rise so the climb comes in fits and spurts and makes day trading very hard. I can hardly wait for the next bear phase to start.

Jeff Bailey : 11/22/2005 11:51:42 AM

Goldcorp (GG) $21.05 -1.26% Link ... Monday's trade at $21.00 triggered the "bullish triangle" pattern. According to Professor Robert Earl Davis' study (Purdue University) the bullish triangle is profitable 71.4% of the time, for an average gain of 30.9% within a 5.4 month period when sector is in a bull phase.

A quick check of Dorsey/Wright's Precious Metals Bullish % (BPPREC) this sector reversed back up to "bull confirmed" status at 56% on 11/16/05. Friday's closing reading was 61.11%, up 3.7%.

Linda Piazza : 11/22/2005 11:44:26 AM

Advdec line climbing, breaking through another resistance level, but the move looking overdone on the shortest time interval.

Jonathan Levinson : 11/22/2005 11:40:39 AM

The bullish perspective has the 41.57-.60 QQQQ high as the resistance line on a rising triangle. The bearish view is of a rising wedge: Link

Linda Piazza : 11/22/2005 11:40:28 AM

I was reading an article this weekend about a trader who studies massive amounts of high-frequency tick data, looking for patterns in the shortest-term time intervals, in fractals of the time intervals some study. I agree with Keene that there's nothing here that I want to trade just yet, with a possibility building for another climb, but into strong resistance on the OEX. How about using a day like today to dial down to a one- or two-minute chart and study formations or actions around key moving averages, or test some other indicator that interests you on a short-term time period. Don't trade the stuff, but you can use the time to learn.

Linda Piazza : 11/22/2005 11:36:44 AM

The advdec line is trying to creep above that resistance again. Whatever it's doing, it's not getting bounced back from each test of that line, as it would be in the most bearish case. This could still be a case of the advdec line hugging resistance and following it lower all day, but there's danger here of a continued bounce if it can break away to the upside. Right now, it's hugging a flattening line, so there's not a forecast either direction, except that bears should not grow comfortable with this continued advdec line attempt to higher.

Jane Fox : 11/22/2005 11:33:30 AM

The VIX is leading the TRIN today but both have the same path. Link

Jonathan Levinson : 11/22/2005 11:32:07 AM

Volume for QQQQ is light (again), currently 26.6M shares traded compared with yesterday's 69.7M total. The average for the day is 102.1M.

Linda Piazza : 11/22/2005 11:27:44 AM

The only trend I see is in the TRIN, and it's moving higher over the last forty-five minutes or so, as Jane may have already mentioned. In fact, it's got an inverse H&S that's been confirmed on the three-minute chart. Of course, it's coming right down to retest the neckline as I type.

Linda Piazza : 11/22/2005 11:21:18 AM

The TRAN approached today's low, but didn't quite touch it, with the previous low at 4136.85, reached just after the open and with the low just reached a few minutes ago at 4137.72. The TRAN is at 4141.13 as I type.

Jonathan Levinson : 11/22/2005 11:21:00 AM

Volume breadth -1.28:1 on the NYSE, +1.25:1 on the Nasdaq.

Linda Piazza : 11/22/2005 11:18:27 AM

I'm not going to harbor too many bearish hopes until that VIX gets over and stays over the three-minute 100/130-ema's at 11.01 and 11.05, respectively. VIX at 10.96 as I type.

Jeff Bailey : 11/22/2005 11:17:58 AM

Bullish Call Option establish stop alert ... Let's place a stop profit on the two (2) WellPoint WLP Dec. $75 Calls (WLP-LO) should the underlying shares trade $78.45.

WLP $78.89 +0.57% here ...

Jonathan Levinson : 11/22/2005 11:16:10 AM

QQQQ's short cycle indicators are on the cusp of a sell signal, confirmation of which will come if QQQQ makes a lower high on the wavelet bounce due to commence immediately (middle oscillator pane) Link A break below rising intraday support in the 72 SMA in the 41.43-.45 area should be enough to confirm a new short cycle downphase.

Linda Piazza : 11/22/2005 11:09:50 AM

No confirmation yet on the inverse H&S on the VIX's 60-minute RSI.

Jeff Bailey : 11/22/2005 11:09:49 AM

11:00 Internals found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 11/22/2005 11:07:00 AM

I'm not getting any confirmation that I need for a bearish OEX play, unfortunately. I had a dream setup in mind for the morning, but it did not materialize, unfortunately.

Linda Piazza : 11/22/2005 11:05:45 AM

The advdec line is breaking above that resistance line I mentioned. The candles have not yet sprung away from that resistance line and it's puzzling to see the OEX and TRAN and SPY and SMH all dip down while the advdec line sprang up, but I see that the advdec line has already dropped back through that resistance again. Just a test, so far.

Jeff Bailey : 11/22/2005 11:02:25 AM

11:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 11/22/2005 11:02:17 AM

I think the TRAN is just reforming into a larger triangle.

Linda Piazza : 11/22/2005 11:00:13 AM

The OEX is coiling, mostly within this morning's gap.

Linda Piazza : 11/22/2005 10:59:37 AM

The TRAN broke to the downside out of the coiling formation into which it had settled after the first ten minutes of trading, but it hasn't confirmed by breaking to a new low for the day.

Linda Piazza : 11/22/2005 10:55:24 AM

The OEX has so far not been able to break over resistance, and neither has the advdec line. However, the advdec line keeps testing and hasn't been bounced down from that resistance, and the VIX can't get over those three-minute 100/130-ema's, so the evidence remains very mixed.

Jonathan Levinson : 11/22/2005 10:49:31 AM

Stepping away.

Linda Piazza : 11/22/2005 10:49:12 AM

OEX facing five-minute resistance at 577.15 on five-minute closes, with that resistance holding over the last twenty minutes or so. There's no divergence here to guide us, as if bearish divergences mattered anyway. Prices are still lowr and RSI is still lower, too.

Linda Piazza : 11/22/2005 10:46:37 AM

As long as the advdec line bounces back from tests of a Keltner resistance line now at about -900, it's supporting the down-all-day thesis more than the stronger bounce one. There are times when the advdec line threads in and out of that line, following it down, but bears really want a bounce back from it and certainly do not want a break above it that then moves away from that line and doesn't form candles along it. Advdec line now at -1007 and climbing toward a second test of that line in the last 15 minutes.

Jonathan Levinson : 11/22/2005 10:45:52 AM

Volume breadth is up to -1.1:1 on the NYSE, +1.72:1 on the Nasdaq.

Jeff Bailey : 11/22/2005 10:40:57 AM

Oil Service Index (OSX.X) 179.10 +0.92% Link ... new all-time high this morning.

Jonathan Levinson : 11/22/2005 10:40:16 AM

The pullback off 41.60 is so far on much lighter volume than the advance: Link The short cycle has turned up, while the wavelet is looking toppy- could be a recipe for chop here at the top.

Linda Piazza : 11/22/2005 10:38:56 AM

The VIX fell back again from its test of its three-minute 100/130-ema's.

Linda Piazza : 11/22/2005 10:35:46 AM

As I feared, matters looked dire this morning, but the bounce was coming. It's a bounce into that 577-578-ish (really a little broader than that, but the most concentrated there) long-term S/R zone on the OEX's daily chart. Not a place that I wanted to go long from with other evidence mixed. Is the BIX about to confirm that inverse H&S or invalidate it? Is the TRAN going to break out of its coil to the upside or downside? Is the advdec line going to turn down after climbing in this bear-flag looking formation, from the resistance now being tested near -950 or is it going to break above it in a climb the rest of the day?

Jeff Bailey : 11/22/2005 10:36:17 AM

Charter Communications (CHTR) $1.29 +4.03% ... atop this morning's most active list (35.22 million traded vs. 12.07 avg. daily volume). Citigroup's (C) $48.38 -0.26% Citigroup Global Markets plans a public offering of 67.7 million shares of Charter Communications' Class A common stock at $1.22 a share, as part of a share lending agreement.

Charter previously agreed to loan to Citigroup Global Markets up to 122.8 million Class A shares. As part of that agreement, Charter will issue 67.7 million shares. Assuming the sale of all of those shares, Charter is obligated to issue an additional 55.1 million shares in three subsequent offerings, at Citigroup's request.

Jonathan Levinson : 11/22/2005 10:30:14 AM

Session high for ten year notes, TNX now negative and down .4 bps at 4.457%. IRX is down 5 bps at 3.845%, steepening the yield curve.

Jeff Bailey : 11/22/2005 10:31:47 AM

China Nat. Resources (CHNR) $6.45 +44.29% Link ... hot for a second-straight session. Recent 10QSB filing at this Link

Linda Piazza : 11/22/2005 10:27:26 AM

TRAN still coiling. Advdec line still rising in a possible bear flag. The OEX has risen to test 15-minute Keltner resistance at 576.69-577.26 on a 15-minute closing basis, but that resistance band slants up so strongly that it's difficult to tell whether it's really resistance at all. the RSI is near the neutral zone on that chart, so it gives no guidance.

Jonathan Levinson : 11/22/2005 10:25:28 AM

QQQQ fills the gap and returns to yesterday's highs, currently flat at 41.55: Link Note that R1 and 30 min channel resistance are both above yesterday's high, making this a very difficult level to short. Shorting the R1/channel top is above yesterday's high in breakout territory, while shorting here is still within easy range for a run to the channel top- calls for a wide stop and great courage. With volume breadth still strengthening to +1.43:1 on the Nasdaq, I'm sitting on my hands.

Linda Piazza : 11/22/2005 10:23:51 AM

I am watching a potential RSI inverse H&S on the VIX's 60-minute chart. Such formations do matter, and they do matter on the VIX's chart.

Linda Piazza : 11/22/2005 10:21:06 AM

The BIX today tests a neckline for an inverse H&S, with the neckline a rising one, and with this on the daily chart. It's actually turning down from the neckline after appearing to punch just a little above it at the close yesterday. The downturn isn't significant yet so the evidence here is mixed, too. Is is this just consolidation before a stronger push above that neckline or is this going to result in an invalidation of that formatiion? We just have to wait and see.

If you have a strong market opinion, here's the place to go for it, setting either close stops to take you out quickly if you're wrong or wide stops to avoid the noise if you're convinced you're right and your account can take the heat if you're eventually proven wrong. Me? After the last couple of weeks, when technical analysis has been of less usefulness than usual, I'm watching for either a strong break over OEX long-term resistance and then a retest or else for a retest of that resistance and another failure there, with evidence that supports a rollover play. I think the OEX needs to come down for a test its 10-sma at some point, even if it's going to bounce into eternity, but I have to see evidence now that the downturn is occurring before I make any kind of judgment call that might entice readers to spend their money on a position.

Linda Piazza : 11/22/2005 10:15:19 AM

TRAN still coiling.

Jonathan Levinson : 11/22/2005 10:16:05 AM

QQQQQ is testing the gap again off a pattern of higher lows, possibly for a rising triangle. above current levels, next resistance is at 41.52 for the short cycle channel and the bottom of yesterday's closing range. Link

Linda Piazza : 11/22/2005 10:14:45 AM

Advdec line continues climbing in what looks like a bear flag. It's showing bullish divergence across many time frames, however, so there's mixed evidence. The OEX is still caught between nearest Keltner support and resistance on the five-minute chart, still testing that rising trendline off the 11/16 levels. Could be a strong bounce point or a failure point, and I do not see anything that shows me definitively which it is.

Jeff Bailey : 11/22/2005 10:13:20 AM

KLA-Tencor (KLAC) $52.18 +1.16% ... new 52-weeker

Jonathan Levinson : 11/22/2005 10:11:32 AM

Volume breadth -1.4:1 on the NYSE, +1.2:1 on the Nasdaq.

Jeff Bailey : 11/22/2005 10:11:22 AM

10:00 Internals found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 11/22/2005 10:10:37 AM

TRAN still coiling. Advdec line trying to climb in a bear-flag looking formation. OEX trapped between nearest support and resistance on the five-minute chart. I don't see definitive evidence yet as to whether there will be a retest of yesterday's high or not. The advdec line could go either way. The coiling TRAN could, too. The VIX is testing the 3-minute 100/130-ema's, and if I showed you a chart, you'd see that these averages have been problematic for the VIX over recent days, although it shows more strength with respect to this test than it has previously. This is either the real deal or it isn't. Helpful, isn't it?

Jane Fox : 11/22/2005 10:08:15 AM

All the internals are telling me bearish so why is this market not falling? Obviously the bulls have a different agenda than we do.

Linda Piazza : 11/22/2005 10:03:41 AM

The TRAN coils, just like the advdec line.

Linda Piazza : 11/22/2005 10:02:04 AM

The OEX is testing a rising trendline off the last 15-minute swing low on 11/16. That trendline appears to cross at about 575.75. A trendline off yesterday's lows crosses just a bit lower, so I wouldn't be surprised to see a violation of that long-term rising trendline, a finding of support just a little lower, and then a bounce up to retest it. Without some kind of retest with sufficient evidence to support it, we won't have confirmation of a rollover in progress, and I want confirmation after the last few weeks, especially with about equal possibilities on the advdec line's chart of a down-all-day day and a long signal, depending on whether that advdec line begins trending in levels indicating an overdone move.

Jeff Bailey : 11/22/2005 10:01:44 AM

10:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 11/22/2005 9:58:30 AM

Correction: it was a 7.5B overnight repo expiring, for a net add of 250M for the day.

Linda Piazza : 11/22/2005 9:55:17 AM

Bounce attempt going on, from where I'd expect it to happen on the advdec line. Some charts show a long entry here, but I'm just not going long with the OEX right below that 577-578-ish resistance zone that's so important.

Jonathan Levinson : 11/22/2005 9:54:40 AM

The Fed's open market desk announces a 7.75B overnight repo, more than covering the expiring 7.25B for a net 500M add. Demand for the money fell, with the stop out rate down 4 bps to 3.97. So much for Moskow's comments about inflation.

Linda Piazza : 11/22/2005 9:53:03 AM

OEX trapped so far between 576.28 resistance on the five-minute chart and 575.68-575.80 support. Not much happening so far.

Jonathan Levinson : 11/22/2005 9:51:39 AM

Still no quotes for Nymex crude oil or natgas from Interactive Brokers. I'm told that they're aware of the problem, which stems from a rollover of quoting services from Globex (indirectly) to Nymex. Hopefully they'll work it out soon.

Jeff Bailey : 11/22/2005 9:50:11 AM

Sell Program Premium ... DIA $107.87, SPX 1,252.28, QQQQ $41.46

Jonathan Levinson : 11/22/2005 9:49:43 AM

The short cycle is early in a roll over as QQQQ tests the bottom of the opening gap: Link

Linda Piazza : 11/22/2005 9:48:08 AM

Iffy point here. There's the possibility of a down-all-day sort of day, but that depends on what happens with the bounce that's beginning, because there are definite bounce signals now across many time frames. Just a bounce to test resistance again or something more? The advdec line is approaching extreme downside levels on many charts. The VIX is attempting to climb off its low, but I think Jane would warn us not to put too much credence in early morning moves. The TRAN broke through another rising trendline this morning, but, as it did yesterday, climbs to retest it immediately. It also broke throug the 10-minute 21-ema, now moving up the list of time intervals over which it's broken through that MA, bouncing it since 11/16, but we're going to have to see if it stays beneath this one. It always bounces back. TRAN at 4150.24 as I type, with the 10-minute 21-ema at 4148.33.

Jonathan Levinson : 11/22/2005 9:44:19 AM

Volume breadth is the reverse of what we saw yesterday, now -1.4:1 on the NYSE, +1.25:1 on the Nasdaq. Yesterday, the NYSE led to the upside.

Jonathan Levinson : 11/22/2005 9:42:27 AM

Awaiting the Fed's 10AM announcement regarding its expiring 7.5B overnight repo. Moskow's comments last night don't square with the Fed's very generous action via the open market desk recently. It will be interesting to see how much (if any) liquidity they drain this morning.

Linda Piazza : 11/22/2005 9:42:02 AM

OEX Keltner picture, 5-minute chart: The OEX has reached support that's held up since Friday about noon, with a Keltner line now at 575.76 on five-minute closes. The OEX pierced this line but now attempts a bounce from it, confirming its short-term importance. Next resistance at 576.37 on five-minute closes and then at 576.86-577.04. Next support at 574.52-564.67. The longer-term charts have resistance that slants upward so strongly that it's difficult to tell if it's real resistance, so these are the short-term levels we'll watch.

I was a day too early, but I didn't want to chase this, this morning. Too much opportunity that dip-buying will come in.

Jonathan Levinson : 11/22/2005 9:39:17 AM

QQQQ loses 72 SMA support on this drop below 41.40. Looks like yesterday afternoon's surge was a stop runner. The 30 min cycle is only now stalling however, and there's strong support at yesterday's lows, from 41.30-.23. I will look to short the next bounce to channel resistance around yesterday's high, unless yesterday's lows are seriously challenged. That stop runner took us out of a nice entry yesterday. Link

Linda Piazza : 11/22/2005 9:38:56 AM

The TRAN's strong move down is helping send other indices lower, but the TRAN now approaches what might be support. If there's a bounce, other indices could be brought higher, too.

Jane Fox : 11/22/2005 9:34:04 AM

ES opens below the red trendline I drew on the ES and VIX charts but I see the VIX has not printed above its line so remains bullish.

Jane Fox : 11/22/2005 9:32:35 AM

AD line is -418 and AD volume is below 0 so the bears have the ball this morning.

Linda Piazza : 11/22/2005 9:32:13 AM

Here's the downturn that was being predicted all day yesterday, from the very level I've had marked on my charts for so long. However, the advdec line is already showing that the move is overdone to the downside, so there might be a bounce somewhere along here, as there was yesterday. If you're in a bearish position, guard profits.

Jonathan Levinson : 11/22/2005 9:31:54 AM

Volume breadth is -1.6:1 on the NYSE, -2.05:1 on the Nasdaq at the open.

Jonathan Levinson : 11/22/2005 9:31:27 AM

Updated QQQQ levels: 72 SMA support is at 41.40, with 30/60 min resistance at 41.54 -41.60, support at 41.30 and 41.23: Link

Jeff Bailey : 11/22/2005 9:15:05 AM

Program Trading Levels for Tuesday ... HL Camp & Company has their computers set for program buying at $+3.02 and set for program selling at $+1.04.

Jane Fox : 11/22/2005 9:05:34 AM

DAteline WSJ Difficulty in finding enough skilled workers is hampering the ability of many U.S. manufacturers to serve their customers.

Eighty-one percent say they face "moderate" or "severe" shortages of qualified workers, according to a survey by the National Association of Manufacturers and Deloitte Consulting LLP. More than half of manufacturers surveyed said 10% or more of their positions are empty for lack of the right candidates.

The shortfall is especially acute in skilled trades, for positions such as welders and specialized machinists. Gaps on the factory floor can make it harder for manufacturers to move quickly to exploit new market opportunities and could hasten the exodus of jobs as more employers hunt for skilled workers outside the U.S.

Jane Fox : 11/22/2005 9:03:46 AM

Dateline WSJ The National Retail Federation raised its forecast for holiday-retail sales, citing upbeat economic news, including falling gasoline prices and better-than-expected sales in October. The industry trade group said it now expects combined retail sales for November and December of $439.53 billion, a 6% increase from a year earlier. That is up from its previous forecast for a 5% gain, made on Sept. 21. The group said this marks the first time it has ever officially upgraded its forecast during the holiday season.

Linda Piazza : 11/22/2005 9:02:01 AM

Yesterday, the OEX climbed right up into a long-term support/resistance band marked on my charts, with that band from about 577-578, roughly, but with support and resistance extending a bit on either side. On the monthly chart, it's possible to see how this level tends to play a part in the OEX's behavior, although it of course sometimes trades across it. It tends to be a level at which the OEX slows down to do some consolidating, however, if not an actual pullback. Seasonal effects may change that pattern.

Yesterday, I had thought we might see a push up toward that level in the morning and then a pullback of some sort. I'd advised readers yesterday morning that the best opportunities for plays were to look for a push up into that zone to look for a rollover play or for a pullback to the 10-sma to look for a bullish one.

However, the push into that zone didn't come until later in the day, and not until after bearish formation after bearish formation had set up, some seeing full follow-through, some moderate follow-through, and some not at all. At the end of the day, the TRAN shot up and everything else did, too, and with the support of the BIX and the RLX, the OEX joined the party. If I hadn't called a couple of bearish OEX plays that performed poorly, I probably would have suggested that it was worth a try at a bearish entry, but I didn't want to suggest that a bearish play be carried overnight. We'll see today if anything sets up, either bearish or bullish. With this low-volume environment and the underpinning the market obviously still has, I'm going to be reluctant to call a bearish trade, however, and with the OEX pinned to long-term and significant resistance on my charts, it's going to be difficult to consider a long one until I see the OEX safely across this zone. This is especially true with the TRAN now within 60-120 points of a level that might stop it cold, with no assurance that it will actually reach that level.

Jane Fox : 11/22/2005 8:35:37 AM

Dateline WSJ With faster-than-expected growth in inflation and the economy this year, the Federal Reserve will likely raise its key interest rate target -- currently at 4.00% -- to 4.25% next month and 4.75% by the end of 2006, economists said Tuesday.

The National Association for Business Economics said its panel of 45 economic forecasters indicates the overall consumer price index, or CPI, will grow 3.4% this year and 3.0% next year, up from last year's 2.7% rate. Compared with its last forecast in September, the latest NABE outlook for CPI is up two-tenths of a percentage point this year and four-tenths a percentage point next year.

"Our forecasters expect strong real GDP (gross domestic product) growth of 3.3% next year, albeit with some changes in the composition of growth," said Carl Tannenbaum, NABE vice president and chief economist for LaSalle Bank in Chicago. "This should be enough to prompt more rate increases from the Federal Reserve."

Jonathan Levinson : 11/22/2005 8:34:16 AM

Dec. emini gold has edged back to a 3.2 gain at 492.7, off a session high of 495.90. Updated daily chart at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 11/22/2005 8:21:21 AM

Session low for ten year notes here, ZN futures -3/32 at 108 59/64, TNX quoted +.9 bps at 4.47%.

Jonathan Levinson : 11/22/2005 7:49:58 AM

The decline overnight brings the Qs and NQ back to yesterday's range, below where our 41.49 short was stopped out. That's either an outstanding distribution job, (in which the entire market became a buyer following which a relative few sold the highs back to the intraday range overnight), or a light-volume overnight dip to permit a second chance to load up at yesterday's intraday levels, the reverse of a gap & crap.

The 30 and 60 min cycles are still in the early stages of their upphases, and the daily cycle is still pinned to the ceiling in overbought. If QQQQ doesn't bounce at the open, a decline from here will reverse those intraday cycles from much lower highs, and would set up the first clue that yesterday's closing high was a daily cycle top. But that's just a guess until we see a break and close below yesterday's low. Until then, as discussed in last night's Market Wrap, the broader price trend remains up.

Jonathan Levinson : 11/22/2005 7:36:30 AM

Equities are down, ES trading 1254.5, NQ 1685.5, YM 10822 and QQQQ -.11 to 41.44. Gold is up 4.80 to 494.30, silver is up .056 to 8.19, ten year notes are down 3/64 to 108 31/32, and Interactive Brokers still can't quote Nymex oil or gas.

The FOMC minutes from the Nov. 1 meeting are scheduled for release at 2PM.

Linda Piazza : 11/22/2005 7:01:51 AM

Good morning. The Nikkei started out in the red, but managed a gain last night. Most other Asian markets declined. European markets are mixed. As of 6:57 EST, gold was up by $3.70 to $493.20, and crude, up by $0.98 to $58.68. More details about Asian and European markets follows in succeeding paragraphs.

Last night, Japan's important tertiary industry index for September disappointed, falling 0.7% month over month. A fall of 0.4% had been forecast. November's all-industries index also disappointed, falling 0.4% month over month, deeper than the expected 0.1%. At the open, the Nikkei declined, working on a possible H&S, with the left shoulder and head produced over the previous two trading days. As has happened so often on our own indices, however, the Nikkei was disinclined to confirm that H&S and instead posted a 27.89-point or 0.19% gain, closing at 14,708.32.

In early trading, financials declined, but carmakers gained from the beginning and other gains were termed broad based. Toshiba Corp. declined after Intel Corp. and Micron Technology formed a joint venture to enter the flash-memory market, competing with Toshiba for sales to Apple Computer. One report said that Apple would buy chips for its Ipod music players from the new venture. Jonathan reported more fully on this joint venture last night in his Wrap.

Most other Asian markets declined. The Taiwan Weighted lost 0.72%, and South Korea's Kospi declined 1.92%, with one article noting that it was chip- and steel-related issues that pressured the Kospi. Singapore's Straits Times dropped 0.29%, but Hong Kong's Hang Seng was flat. China's Shanghai Composite dropped 1.90%. China's Baosteel has announced a lowering of its product prices in the first quarter in 2006, with the company cutting prices an average of more than 10%.

European markets are mixed. Italy's non-EU trade balance for October showed the deleterious effects of higher crude costs, with imports rising 15.5% year over year due to those costs while exports rose on 7.3%. The deficit had narrowed from September's number, but a surplus had been expected, and some feel that it's the year-over-year comparison that's most telling. In Germany today, Angela Merkel was confirmed as the new chancellor. In the U.K. the CBI's November industrial trends survey disappointed, remaining at -25 against the expectation of an improvement to -22. Exports improved but the output component also disappointed.

Resource-related stocks tended to rise with crude rising, too. German utility E. ON rose after the company announced that it isn't bidding for Scottish Power after all. Some positive earnings reports helped limit losses on bourses, with the U.K.'s easyJet PLC being one of the companies with stock benefiting from a well-received earnings report. Swiss staffing firm Adecco benefited from a reorganization and shakeup in executive lineup. Two IPO's were introduced with the home-improvement company Praktiker, a unit of German retailer Metro, performing well. The other IPO had not yet begun trading at the time various research articles began to appear. In other news in the retail sector, France's Carrefour moved lower after announcing job cuts.

As of 6:51 EST, the FTSE 100 had risen 16.70 points or 0.30%, to trade at 5,514.60. The CAC 40 had dropped 7.17 points or 0.16%, to trade at 4,579.21. The DAX had dropped 5.82 points or 0.11%, to trade at 5,164.79.

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