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OI Technical Staff : 11/23/2005 9:59:59 PM

The Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

Disclaimer: Stocks discussed in the Market Monitor are for educational purposes only and any analysis is not meant to imply a recommendation for or against that stock. The analysts in this forum as on any other website are prohibited by the SEC from giving any specific advice to ANY individual trader. All information posted is for ALL readers and is not meant to be directed to any individual. Our analysts cannot answer any email questions regarding any specific stock. Please do not ask and please do not take offense if requests are denied.

Results posted in the Market Monitor are hypothetical and OIN does not claim that any reader achieved these exact results. Due to the lag time between research, writing, posting, uploading, reading and execution there will be differences between the actual signal given and the fill achieved by the reader. Fills may be better or worse but in most cases they will be different. The writers will make every effort to give advance notice of intended signals and indicate potential price targets. Your individual results may vary depending on your activity level and aggressiveness. This forum is intended as an education service only. Trading involves risk and should not be attempted by anyone not ready to accept this risk. By acting on any signal in this forum you agree and personally accept this risk.

Jeff Bailey : 11/23/2005 9:32:47 PM

EIA Weekly Crude Oil, Gasoline, Distillate and Nat. Gas Inventory Table found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 11/23/2005 5:34:32 PM

I will be out of the office on Friday, November 25, but plan on returning by Monday's opening bell.

Have a safe Thanksgiving!

Markets are closed on Thursday. The NYSE will open for floor trade at 09:30 AM EST on Friday, but will close early at 01:00 PM EST. Crossing Session I order entry will begin at 01:15 PM with order executions at 01:30, and Crossing Sessions II, III and IV orders will be accepted beginning at 01:00 PM for executions until 01:30 PM EST.

Jeff Bailey : 11/23/2005 5:27:38 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles found at this Link

Today's Activity ... Swing traded long 300 shares of the QQQQ at the offer of $41.86, stop $41.70, target $42.15. While this trade would take a $10,000.00 account into margin, this trade somewhat protected by the currently long Jan. $42 Puts (QQQ-MP). The QQQ-MP's traded a session low of $0.85, where QQQQ traded a session high of $41.02 today.

On Friday, should the QQQ-MP's get stopped at $0.80, I would then suggest an immediate raising of a stop in the underlying QQQQ to break-even.

Note: At 09:47:05 AM EDT, I suggested traders in the QQQ-MP adjust their stops to $0.80 from $0.85 based on SPY/QQQQ Pivot Analysis and early morning action.

Bullish swing trade sold 1/2 of the Goldcorp (GG) position at $21.25 ($+1.55, or +7.87%)

Jeff Bailey : 11/23/2005 4:56:49 PM

Closing U.S. Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 11/23/2005 4:51:01 PM

Closing Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 11/23/2005 4:13:30 PM

Buy Program Premium ... DIA $109.16, SPY $126.91

Jane Fox : 11/23/2005 4:06:16 PM

Happy Thanksgiving to you all and see you all on Friday.

Linda Piazza : 11/23/2005 4:01:59 PM

As I thought, the OEX's H&S on the five-minute chart was not confirmed by the close. We start over Friday, with every possibility that formation could morph into something else--say a bullish falling wedge?

Jeff Bailey : 11/23/2005 4:01:27 PM

Bullish swing trade raise stop alert ... for the remaining 1/4 bullish position in Goldcorp (GG) $21.19 -2.03% ... to break even of $19.70.

Linda Piazza : 11/23/2005 3:55:57 PM

It looks as if the OEX will be ending the day with a H&S on its five-minute chart, perhaps not confirmed by the close, with a descending neckline now at about 581.57. The OEX is at 581.82 as I type. Regardless of whether it's confirmed by the close or not, I think we start over Friday morning and see what sets up then.

Linda Piazza : 11/23/2005 3:52:58 PM

Happy Thanksgiving to all of you, too, to readers and fellow writers.

In my family, we have special reason to be thankful. My 20-month-old granddaughter walked 12 steps yesterday. We were told that the likelihood of her ever walking was less than 20%. Therapists who work with her now are amazed that she can even sit or crawl, but she's doing it!

Linda Piazza : 11/23/2005 3:51:03 PM

I'm going to be signing off soon, too. I'll be around until the close, but taking off right after that. I've already presented my end-of-day thoughts. I think that intermediate-term bulls out to begin scaling out of positions and tightening stops on what's left. I think it's possible that the reach higher will continue, as those siren 11,000 Dow and 4,200-4,275 TRAN levels still beckon, but there needs to be a pullback soon.

Jonathan Levinson : 11/23/2005 3:50:40 PM

Have a happy Thanksgiving, all! See you on Monday.

Linda Piazza : 11/23/2005 3:47:58 PM

Jeff's mention of AMD reminds me to mention something I've been testing. I've mentioned that CBOT webinar that I took a few weeks ago, and the volume and price-spread correlations that it teaches you to study. I mentioned last week that I've begun testing out the theories with my own money, because the positions are not the scalping ones that are so difficult to post the Market Monitor and I'd like to find a way other than those to give you trades. I said on Friday that I had tested it with a long LU position, with Thursday's close showing that the position was viable. I bought 800 shares just to test it because things feel different when there's real money at stake. I sold the position the same day, as it was just a test. Shouldn't have sold it, although I'd likely be selling it today, depending on the close. That would be out of caution because today's volume was higher and the daily candle has an upper shadow. I also entered a bearish AMD position (options this time) near the close yesterday. I've closed that one out for a laughable profit today, as soon as profit was offered, but it is real money at stake after all, and a bearish play of any kind in this market is scary! If I'd held on, I'd have another $0.30/contract as of this writing. However, it proved that the setup worked. I also entered a HPQ bearish play Monday just before the close, and missed by a few cents collecting money on that yesterday morning. The option bid price is now a few 30 cents below my entry.

Other signals included a bearish play on JNJ, which I didn't take, unfortunately, and a bullish one on CSCO, with that one at the close on Friday, but I didn't take that one, either, unfortunately. Anyway, I like what I'm seeing so far, but you know about how trustworthy a test of a week or two are. Besides, I know just enough about this to get us all into trouble, and am far from an expert. If you ever get a chance to take that free CBOT webinar, though, I recommend it. In the meantime, I'm exploring this as a way to provide plays you can consider, enter if you're willing and then have time to consider the exit, too.

Jeff Bailey : 11/23/2005 3:47:50 PM

Bullish swing trade sell 1/2 position alert ... let's sell 1/2 of the Goldcorp (GG) $21.25 -1.75% position here.

This would have us holding 1/4 bullish at this point.

Jonathan Levinson : 11/23/2005 3:42:12 PM

QQQQ daily chart at this Link . Note that yesterday's low and rising wedge support are both comfortably below today's higher low. While the doji rejection at the highs certainly isn't bullish, it's going to take more than that to suggest a break or pause in the current rally.

Jonathan Levinson : 11/23/2005 3:37:30 PM

Volume breadth declines to +2:1 on the NYSE, +1.8:1 on the Nasdaq.

Jeff Bailey : 11/23/2005 3:30:49 PM

SOX.X 480.35 -0.52% ... reverses earlier gains. AMD $26.20 -3.28%, MRVL $55.60 -1.92% pace weakness.

Jonathan Levinson : 11/23/2005 3:30:39 PM

The SOX took out the morning lows and is bouncing below it, while the Qs bounce from above it. So far the bounce is on declining volume and looks distributive, but the broader trend remains up. So far it's just a wavelet bounce within the short cycle and young 30 min cycle downphase- a break above 41.90 is required to reverse these latter. Link

Jeff Bailey : 11/23/2005 3:27:54 PM

03:00 Internals found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 11/23/2005 3:24:57 PM

I'm working on charts for this evening's Wrap, and I see that the TRAN has nearly reached its upside target and likely strong resistance. The Dow came very close to March's 10,984.46 high with today's high at 10,950.75. The SOX has come close to converging trendlines just below 1280, with one of those being a descending trendline off the March 2000 high.

I'm going to be advising in tonight's Wrap that intermediate-term bulls begin locking in some profits and tightening stops. Dow 11,000 is so attractive (with 11,030-11,070 potentially strong resistance) and TRAN 4,200 is, too, that I can still see an effort to reach those levels and above, perhaps even this afternoon, perhaps Friday, perhaps even next week. But the indices have far outstripped their 10-sma's, and they need to consolidate sideways or else decline toward those averages sometime or other. I'm not saying it's going to be now, as I really could see an effort to jam indices past those important levels to "safety," but it could be any time.

Linda Piazza : 11/23/2005 3:19:01 PM

The OEX has dropped to the next and longer-term (well, when we're talking about intraday charts) support at the five-minute 72-ema. The OEX has bounced from this since last Wednesday. It's at 581.97. As I typed, the OEX began a bounce from it, but it's not yet a convincing bounce.

Jeff Bailey : 11/23/2005 3:18:38 PM

03:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jane Fox : 11/23/2005 3:16:32 PM

I believe these two will need to retrace at least 50% before it would be safe for the bears to dip their toes back in the water but you know with the time of day I don't think it is worth while. Link

Jane Fox : 11/23/2005 3:14:11 PM

The VIX is now making new daily highs. I figured that could go on for only so long and the VIX/ES divergence got strong enough to trump the bullish ADs.

Jonathan Levinson : 11/23/2005 3:11:07 PM

Volume breadth -1.75:1 on the Nasdaq for the first test of 30 min channel support since Tuesday.

Jeff Bailey : 11/23/2005 3:10:59 PM

QQQQ Options Chain at this Link ... 14,000 contracts just went off at the bid of $2.60 in the Jan07 42 Puts. That's a "long-term" trade, so not all that pertinent here.

QQQQ does show nearly 2:1 sellers in the underlying though.

Jane Fox : 11/23/2005 3:05:10 PM

This discrepancy has to take its toll at some point today. Link

Jonathan Levinson : 11/23/2005 3:01:40 PM

The weakness is much more pronounced in the SOX, which has just engulfed the bulk of today's gains and tests the opening lows: Link QQQQ is dropping from its 72 SMA break, testing 30 min channel support now. Link

Linda Piazza : 11/23/2005 2:55:06 PM

The advdec line pulls back a little, but to a level that might be strong support.

Jonathan Levinson : 11/23/2005 2:55:03 PM

QQQQ tests 72 SMA support here, the 30 min channel flattening from its rise. Link

Linda Piazza : 11/23/2005 2:53:06 PM

Yesterday, the SOX punched above a descending trendline off the summer high, but then had moved back below it by the end of the day, leaving a long candle shadow behind. Today, the SOX has again punched above that descending trendline, currently crossing at about 483.38, and it's pulling back, but not quite to that trendline again. If it did pull back below it again, that would not look good. SOX at 484.49 as I type.

Jonathan Levinson : 11/23/2005 2:50:16 PM

Volume breadth +2.5:1 on the NYSE, +3.3:1 on the Nasdaq.

Linda Piazza : 11/23/2005 2:48:38 PM

The TRAN's high today has been 4187.92. It's getting closer and closer.

Linda Piazza : 11/23/2005 2:47:44 PM

The OEX drops towawrd its three-minute 21-ema again, with that average at 583.73. Each bounce from that average has produced a gain today, and actually since 2:00 yesterday afternoon. The only time the OEX crashed through it was at the open this morning. While I wanted to go long on a test of that average earlier today, that test never occurred when I wanted it, and now I no longer want to chase the OEX. Its high has been only a little more than two points away from its 586.64 target and resistance on its 240-minute chart. RSI on that chart now measure 89.44. The last time RSI was anywhere near that level on that chart was, coincidentally, last November. As all know, November did not mark the end of the rally last fall, but each time the OEX tested that upper Keltner resistance (twice), it dropped back. That doesn't always happen. The OEX can break out on this chart, just as it can on any other, but I'm not going to chase the OEX now. I would have earlier if the OEX had come back and tested that average, with several hours to go in the day and several points to go before that resistance was hit, but not now.

Jonathan Levinson : 11/23/2005 2:44:47 PM

QQQQ is coming in for a test of the 72 SMA at 41.90, the first of the day if reached. So far, each such dip has bounced from 2 cents above it all day: Link

Jonathan Levinson : 11/23/2005 2:36:58 PM

Bonds had a very weak finish considering the repeat repo adds this week and the dealers' stop out rate finishing at 3.95, a week low. If the Fed's money wound up in any market, equities would be the obvious choice.

Jeff Bailey : 11/23/2005 2:26:32 PM

Placer Dome (PDG) $21.82 -0.36% Link ... earlier this morning the company rejected Barrick Gold's (ABX) $27.48 -1.18% $9.2 billion takeover bid, calling the offer "indadequate."

Linda Piazza : 11/23/2005 2:26:29 PM

TRAN breaks above what was now clearly a bull flag. I certainly wish it would go ahead and tag that resistance.

Linda Piazza : 11/23/2005 2:24:02 PM

No surprise, the TRAN is almost invalidating that H&S on its five-minute chart and will have invalidated it, if the TRAN doesn't draw back soon. The TRAN is at 4184.26 as I type. If that's a bull flag instead, QCharts draws the channel so that its upward boundary is at 4185.12.

Jonathan Levinson : 11/23/2005 2:22:39 PM

Volume breadth is up to +2.65:1 on the NYSE, +3.22:1 on the Nasdaq.

Jane Fox : 11/23/2005 2:21:47 PM

TICKS +800 and the shorts continue to be squeezed.

Linda Piazza : 11/23/2005 2:18:42 PM

TRAN still testing that right shoulder, or the top of its bull flag pullback, whichever it might be.

Jeff Bailey : 11/23/2005 2:16:36 PM

About the only suspense left today is to see if the AMEX Gold Bugs ($HUI.X) 250.54 -1.67% can erase a 4-point loss by the close.

NEM $46.75 -0.99%, GG $21.40 -1.06%

Linda Piazza : 11/23/2005 2:14:52 PM

Advdec line still climbing.

Jeff Bailey : 11/23/2005 2:13:44 PM

02:00 Internals found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 11/23/2005 2:15:18 PM

TRAN still at the right-shoulder level for its latest version of a H&S. It began forming this when it failed to confirm the cup-and-handle formation. First bulls tried a formation and now bears try one. A rise much above 4184.15 would invalidate the formation, with the TRAN now at 4182.51 as I type.

Another possibility is that the TRAN is just setting up a bull-flag pullback. That would be in keeping with a further push toward the 4200-4275 zone.

Jonathan Levinson : 11/23/2005 2:11:01 PM

QQQQ's 30 and 60 min cycles are now both in overbought territory, joining the daily and weekly cycles. The short cycle indicators are sliding sideways, but each dip has been bought on a sudden surge of volume. With the Fed's generosity this week, that's not surprising- but this remains an extended trending move. 72 SMA support is up to 41.88, a move below which would stall the 30 min cycle's advance. Link

Linda Piazza : 11/23/2005 2:18:14 PM

The TRAN is at that right-shoulder level for its latest H&S on its five-minute chart.

Linda Piazza : 11/23/2005 2:04:19 PM

The OEX just touched, or nearly did, the three-minute 21-ema a few minutes ago, when that average was at 582.95 and the OEX dropped to 583.01. The OEX is now at 583.60, so it looks as if it would have made a decent entry once again, depending on what happens next. No change in trend yet, with the OEX bouncing from that average and climbing to new highs each time.

Bulls can use this information to set their stops if they don't want to carry a long position over the holiday. They can set their stops an account-appropriate amount below that average.

Jeff Bailey : 11/23/2005 2:02:58 PM

02:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jane Fox : 11/23/2005 2:02:33 PM

TICKS +800.

Linda Piazza : 11/23/2005 2:00:57 PM

And another potential H&S on the TRAN, this on the five-minute chart, with a descending neckline now at about 4176 or perhaps a little higher, depending on how it's drawn. The TRAN is just a little below an appropriate right-shoulder level, with the TRAN at 4181.20 as I type and rising into that right shoulder.

Does it mean anything that the TRAN keeps setting up these formations, and even briefly confirming some, as it did this morning's? I think it might, but right now, it means more than it's not meeting the downside targets and often invalidates the formations. I've had that target for the TRAN for a long while--first at 4000 and then raised to 4200-4275 as the TRAN breezed past 4000--and I think others are seeing the end of its zoom nearing, too. We may be seeing some initial signs of that end, but they don't prevent the TRAN from blowing up to that 4200-4275 target and strong resistance.

Jonathan Levinson : 11/23/2005 1:59:16 PM

Volume breadth is +2.4:1 on the NYSE, +3.15:1 on the Nasdaq.

Jeff Bailey : 11/23/2005 1:59:03 PM

Matrix Service (MTRX) $8.98 +2.62% Link ... On Friday of last week, the company did comment on the fatal accident involving two employees at the Valero Refinery in Deleware City. The two employees died following exposure to nitrogen fumes at the refinery, which is owned by Valero.

Matrix said its unit has adequate insurance coverage that includes both workers' compensation and general liability.

Valero hired Matrix Service Industrial Contractors, one of its primary maintenance contractors, to work on the current turnaround at the refinery. The company continues to work with Valero at this refinery and expects to complete the turnaround project on schedule.

Jeff Bailey : 11/23/2005 1:48:47 PM

Cisco Systems (CSCO) $17.54 +1.50% Link ... challenges its 50-day SMA ($17.52) and moves into its 11/09-11/10 gap.

Jonathan Levinson : 11/23/2005 1:36:51 PM

A friend has just stepped into my office- back shortly.

Linda Piazza : 11/23/2005 1:38:05 PM

Once again, I didn't really have to wonder what to do about an OEX test of the rising 3-minute 21-ema, with that average bouncing the OEX since about 2:00 yesterday, except for this morning's brief stop-running dip. The OEX never got there. It's moving sideways into that average now, though, with the average at 582.90 an the OEX at 583.24. It's now almost as if there's a force field above that average, propelling the OEX away before it even touches it. There is: it's composed of others, like me, who have discovered what average was bouncing the OEX. They're buying just ahead of a touch, or bears are covering just ahead of it.

Linda Piazza : 11/23/2005 1:35:03 PM

It's definitely been the financials' day today. I had wondered last week if the BIX might top out somewhere near 372-373, and it's at 372.12 now. I now no longer believe that anything tops out, however! Smile.

Jane Fox : 11/23/2005 1:34:52 PM

Its been a long time since I have seen this kind of divergence between the VIX and ES. This should make the bulls very worried but as I have said many many times before as long as we have the discrepancy between the VIX and ADs you can't take anything at face value. I would not be long because of the VIX and definitely would not be short because of the ADs. Link

Jonathan Levinson : 11/23/2005 1:32:58 PM

I heard an interesting statistic today to the effect that another green Friday would result in 12 consecutive green Fridays- an event that has occurred only once before in market history, in Spring 1971.

Linda Piazza : 11/23/2005 1:31:01 PM

So far, the TRAN is not confirming the potential cup-and-handle formation on its three-minute chart. Still a lot of day left, however.

Jeff Bailey : 11/23/2005 1:29:17 PM

According to the StockTrader's Almanac, every day this week is historically a bullish day Jonathan. Friday too!

Linda Piazza : 11/23/2005 1:27:19 PM

The advdec line has now tested resistance in the 1400-ish level on the 15-minute chart. If this were not so late in what is a bullish day, this would be setting up a signal for a bearish play. However, it is this late on a historically bullish day.

Jonathan Levinson : 11/23/2005 1:21:09 PM

QQQQ is doing what it's been doing for 3 weeks, consolidating narrowly just below its most recent high on light volume in a flat range. Channel resistance holds at 41.99 but channel support is rising- 30 min at 41.80, 60 min at 41.70. Link

Jeff Bailey : 11/23/2005 1:12:46 PM

01:00 Internals found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 11/23/2005 1:05:33 PM

Stepping away for a few minutes.

Linda Piazza : 11/23/2005 1:04:50 PM

The OEX is falling again toward a test of the three-minute 21-ema. More than an hour and several points above my intention to go long on a retest of that MA, I can't bring myself to do it now. Too risky.

Jeff Bailey : 11/23/2005 1:03:43 PM

01:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 11/23/2005 12:56:45 PM

SPY $127.14 +0.66% ... did trade overlapping WEEKLY R2/DAILY R2.

Jonathan Levinson : 11/23/2005 12:55:01 PM

QQQQ stopped at the channel top cluster just below 42, session high 41.973, but the pull back is on very light volume, and the short cycles are just turning up. No sign of weakness, and volume breadth is now up to +3.2:1. Link

Jeff Bailey : 11/23/2005 12:53:56 PM

Have a great Thanksgiving Jane!

Linda Piazza : 11/23/2005 12:53:40 PM

Is that a cup-and-handle formation now on the TRAN's five-minute chart? Those are valid continuation formations. The lip of the formation appears to be at about 4185.70, with the TRAN now at 4184.55. If confirmed, the upside target would be at about 4209, with that being very near the upside target and resistance area that's been on my envelope chart for so long. This, up to 4275, should be massive resistance for the TRAN, if it reaches it. Famous last words? Perhaps, but the TRAN has not punched outside that envelope since 1997, other than a brief intra-week test.

Jeff Bailey : 11/23/2005 12:51:43 PM

QQQQ $41.96 +0.62% ... buyers and sellers may now be targeting $42.62. That's my reverse head/shoulder pattern objective at this Link

Linda Piazza : 11/23/2005 12:49:15 PM

I went looking an hour or so ago for the MA that was bouncing the OEX, and found the three-minute 21-ema. I decided to go long (personal account--too risky for the MM) on an OEX drop back to the three-minute 21-ema that's been bouncing it, but it hasn't touched that average since the 11:03 candle. Now it's risen so high that I find myself reluctant to try it on another test, if one should occur.

Jane Fox : 11/23/2005 12:46:07 PM

I am going to take a off for a bit and make apple pies for tomorrow so C U later.

Jonathan Levinson : 11/23/2005 12:43:16 PM

Volume breadth has strengthened further to +2.2:1 on the NYSE, +3.05:1 on the Nasdaq.

Jeff Bailey : 11/23/2005 12:42:31 PM

Intel (INTC) $26.76 +2.25% Link ... strong gain again today. Impressive move yesterday on volume above its longer-term 200-day SMA.

Jane Fox : 11/23/2005 12:38:25 PM

VIX once again suggesting a top is in but this has tricked us once today already and the AD line and volume continue to make new daily highs so I will definitely not be acting on this divergence. Link

Jeff Bailey : 11/23/2005 12:37:33 PM

OEX 582.49 +0.45% ... above MONTHLY/WEEKLY R2. Next highest level is DAILY R2 of 583.24.

This is when a conventional or fitted retracement comes in handy. To find further levels/targets for resistance.

Jonathan Levinson : 11/23/2005 12:33:56 PM

Session highs here, with QQQQ at 41.89, challenging rising triangle resistance. The flat range has narrowed the channel bands, but if the current range turns into another springboard, it could propel price easily above those keltner channel tops. I will not be in a hurry to short such a breach for that reason. A break below 41.80 would invalidate the current rising triangle setup. Link

Linda Piazza : 11/23/2005 12:32:18 PM

Strong bounce on the BIX.

Linda Piazza : 11/23/2005 12:32:00 PM

TRAN went down to the neckline of its latest H&S on its three-minute chart, but didn't confirm the formation and now bounces. What's new?

Linda Piazza : 11/23/2005 12:31:12 PM

New OEX high.

Jeff Bailey : 11/23/2005 12:30:45 PM

Oil Service Index (OSX.X) 181.42 +0.02% ... have all the sellers gone home for an extended Thanksgiving holiday?

Jeff Bailey : 11/23/2005 12:28:22 PM

Exxon Mobil (XOM) $59.70 +0.06% ... session high. Membership has its privilege today.

INDU 10,910.89 +0.36% ...

DIA $109.08 +0.04% ...

Linda Piazza : 11/23/2005 12:27:38 PM

TRAN coming down to test that neckline on that possible H&S on its three-minute chart. I'm tired of reporting on possible formations that mean little, and I'm certain you're tired of hearing about them, but this formation is at the top of the equal-high test the TRAN made, and so it might have more importance than most such little formations. Of course, the TRAN actually moved a little higher than yesterday's high, but was in essentially an equal-high area. The neckline is now at about 4177.55 if I've drawn it correctly, but I wouldn't consider it confirmed until a one-minute close beneath the 100/130-ema's at 4177.87 and 4176.73, respectively.

Jonathan Levinson : 11/23/2005 12:23:17 PM

QQQQ volume reaches 1/4 of yesterday's below-average 88.8M total. Advancing shares outnumber declining shares 3:1.

Linda Piazza : 11/23/2005 12:20:35 PM

TRAN is in danger of invalidating the potential inverse H&S. Big surprise if it does, right?

Linda Piazza : 11/23/2005 12:17:52 PM

Should I even mention it? Potential H&S on the TRAN's 3-minute chart. TRAN testing the right shoulder as I type, with the TRAN at 4180.57.

Jeff Bailey : 11/23/2005 12:15:34 PM

QQQQ $41.86 +0.38% .... the QQQ-MP trades a 10 lot at $0.85.

Jeff Bailey : 11/23/2005 12:14:02 PM

12:00 Internals found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 11/23/2005 12:12:35 PM

Session low for ten year notes, breaking 109 here and approaching yesterday's 108 27/32 low. TNX is up 3.9 bps at 4.467%.

Linda Piazza : 11/23/2005 12:09:48 PM

The OEX has not even dipped back to the three-minute 21-ema this time. That average is at 581.45 and the OEX is at 581.92.

Jane Fox : 11/23/2005 12:08:38 PM

These two are into the trajectory that we seen so many times in the past, a trajectory that has been disastrous to shorts and continues to be disastrous to shorts again today. Link

Jeff Bailey : 11/23/2005 12:05:07 PM

12:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 11/23/2005 12:03:00 PM

Except for a brief dip below it near the open, the OEX has been bouncing from the three-minute 21-ema, currently at 581.33 since about 2:00 yesterday afternoon. OEX at 581.76 as I type.

Jonathan Levinson : 11/23/2005 12:02:37 PM

Headline:

DOE: NATURAL GAS IN STORAGE FALLS 8 BILLION CUBIC FEET

Jonathan Levinson : 11/23/2005 12:02:28 PM

Natural gas is +.02 here at 11.635, crude oil -.525 at 58.325.

Jeff Bailey : 11/23/2005 12:02:08 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles found at this Link ... I adjusted LOWER my stop on the three (3) QQQ-MP to $0.80, which may give room to QQQQ $41.93-$41.94.

Took a swing trade long for 300 shares (over $10,000, but hedged by $42 puts) in the QQQQ, as SPY action suggest possible trade above $42 by Friday's close.

Jonathan Levinson : 11/23/2005 12:01:50 PM

From the EIA's website:

Working gas in storage was 3,274 Bcf as of Friday, November 18, 2005, according to EIA estimates. This represents a net decline of 8 Bcf from the previous week. Stocks were 32 Bcf less than last year at this time and 195 Bcf above the 5-year average of 3,079 Bcf. In the East Region, stocks were 92 Bcf above the 5-year average following net withdrawals of 9 Bcf. Stocks in the Producing Region were 46 Bcf above the 5-year average of 851 Bcf after a net injection of 4 Bcf. Stocks in the West Region were 57 Bcf above the 5-year average after a net drawdown of 3 Bcf. At 3,274 Bcf, total working gas is within the 5-year historical range.

Linda Piazza : 11/23/2005 11:59:00 AM

Another new high on the OEX. The BIX is helping to drive it higher currently, with the RLX consolidating in a tight range since about 10:30.

Linda Piazza : 11/23/2005 11:55:56 AM

If in bullish OEX plays, continue to raise your stops. That's my only advice for today.

Jonathan Levinson : 11/23/2005 11:54:50 AM

Hearing that the EIA natural gas report will be released at noon. I will post the results as soon as they're out. Link

Linda Piazza : 11/23/2005 11:51:56 AM

The TRAN is in the process of testing yesterday's high.

Jane Fox : 11/23/2005 11:51:14 AM

TICKS +800

Jonathan Levinson : 11/23/2005 11:45:53 AM

Headlines:

11:41am GERMANY'S DAX ENDS UP 0.4% AT 5,196

11:41am FRANCE'S CAC 40 ENDS UP 0.6% AT 4,608

11:41am U.K.'S FTSE 100 ENDS UP 0.3% AT 5,531

Linda Piazza : 11/23/2005 11:42:07 AM

The OEX comes down to retest the top of the latest rising regression channel, the channel it broke above about twenty minutes ago. The support there looks strong, but it had looked strong as resistance, too. The support immediately below the OEX extends down to 581. As I type, it looks as if the OEX may attempt to rise before it even falls all the way into a test of the that former resitance. OEX at 581.44.

Jane Fox : 11/23/2005 11:39:34 AM

AD volume and AD line continue to make new daily highs and the VIX is now also getting in on the bullishness with new daily lows. The bulls have a very firm grip on the reins and I don't see anything that tells me they are ready to get go of them.

Jonathan Levinson : 11/23/2005 11:36:29 AM

Volume breadth +1.75:1 on the NYSE, +2.8:1 on the Nasdaq.

Linda Piazza : 11/23/2005 11:32:52 AM

TRAN climbing toward yesterday's high. Above that, if that resistance doesn't hold, is the 4220-ish next target on its weekly envelope, with a 4275-ish target for the confirmed continuation-form inverse H&S on its daily and weekly charts. I don't always give strong credence to targets on continuation-form inverse H&S's, but do keep them on my radar screen.

Jonathan Levinson : 11/23/2005 11:32:06 AM

The Qs have returned to yesterday's high from a series of higher lows, for another potential bullish rising triangle. These have provided the springboard for several of the recent breakouts following the shallow sideways consolidations off the highs. If so, then a break above 41.87-.90 could kick off the next meltup- watch for expanding volume on the break. A break below 72 SMA at 41.80 would invalidate the setup and should be enough to kick off a new short cycle downphase. Link

Linda Piazza : 11/23/2005 11:29:06 AM

Now the advdec line has climbed into levels showing some slight overdone-ness (I can't say overbought because the advdec line isn't bought.) on the shortest-term charts. Not on the five-minute yet. Zoom, zoom.

Linda Piazza : 11/23/2005 11:27:44 AM

And there goes the OEX above that rising regression channel and breaking to the upside out of a (bearish) rising regression channel, all while no new bullish signal was given. As I type, there's a quick pullback in the OEX and some indices, although none yet in the BIX.

Jeff Bailey : 11/23/2005 11:26:46 AM

SPY 126.80 +0.38% .... If computers were going to hit it at MONTHLY R2, I would have thought they'd have done it by now.

Jane Fox : 11/23/2005 11:26:19 AM

TICKS +800 confirming the bullishness.

Jeff Bailey : 11/23/2005 11:25:47 AM

Bullish swing trade long alert for 300 shares of the QQQQ $41.86 here, stop $41.70, target $42.15.

If traders have some "in the money puts" might as well use them as protection against the swing trade long.

Jonathan Levinson : 11/23/2005 11:24:56 AM

Session highs across the board here, QQQQ at 41.87.

Jonathan Levinson : 11/23/2005 11:23:52 AM

Volume breadth is up to +1.6:1 on the NYSE, +2.7:1 on the Nasdaq.

Jonathan Levinson : 11/23/2005 11:21:32 AM

Session high for GOOG here at 422.92, +6.45.

Linda Piazza : 11/23/2005 11:20:14 AM

Now I think the TRAN has confirmed an inverse H&S on its two-minute chart, at the bottom of its drop off yesterday's high. However, look for the possibility that it might climb toward 4177 and pull back from there, possibly toward 4170, into a larger inverse H&S. TRAN at 4173.86 as I type.

Jeff Bailey : 11/23/2005 11:19:01 AM

11:00 Internals found at this Link

Yesterday's Internals found at this Link

Jane Fox : 11/23/2005 11:17:34 AM

Even though the VIX is saying we have seen a top these two just do not agree. This is no environment to be short. Link

Jane Fox : 11/23/2005 11:15:46 AM

Notice the VIX is not confirming ES's new daily highs, a classic topping process, but taking into account the AD line and volume I would be hard pressed to suggest a short here. Link

Linda Piazza : 11/23/2005 11:13:30 AM

The SOX invalidated that inverse H&S that it had just confirmed.

Jeff Bailey : 11/23/2005 11:09:46 AM

11:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 11/23/2005 11:07:13 AM

Session low for ten year notes, with TNX up 1.7 bps at 4.445%. IRX is down .5 bps at 3.827%, steepening the yield curve.

Jonathan Levinson : 11/23/2005 11:05:23 AM

Volume breadth is +1.4:1 on the NYSE, +2.5:1 on the Nasdaq as QQQQ edges back in a weak, though bearish-divergent, wavelet downphase: Link . Below 41.78, it should begin to impact the broader short cycle.

Jeff Bailey : 11/23/2005 11:06:49 AM

EIA Weekly Crude Oil, Gasoline, Distillate Inventory Table found at this Link ... Alert! I believe these data taken directly from the EIA table correct. Crude Oil Inventory up 354,000 barrels, Gasoline up 238,000 and Distillate up 1.1 million.

Major differences betwee EIA and API statistics this week.

Linda Piazza : 11/23/2005 11:04:41 AM

The OEX's 30-minute RSI is over 80 again. It almost never stays there for more than a couple of 30-minute bars. The pullback isn't always a big one. These days, it's hard to attach the word "pullback" to the markets. I have not got a single new signal this morning, either direction, with the advdec line staying mostly in the central zone. My advice would be to keep following the OEX higher with your stops if in long plays. I don't see any new entries that are corroborated by any evidence that I see. I know what I think, but I thought the OEX would pull back to the 10-sma after it tested that 577-578 zone, and it didn't.

Linda Piazza : 11/23/2005 10:57:02 AM

The TRAN has now broken above that descending regression channel but it's still not doing its usual zoom up when it's invalidated a H&S formation.

Linda Piazza : 11/23/2005 10:54:03 AM

The OEX keeps climbing the rising regression channel's upside resistance, with two-minute Keltner resistance thickening above it, but it's still climbing it. Advdec line still climbing, too.

Jeff Bailey : 11/23/2005 10:51:22 AM

EIA Weekly Gross Inputs, Refinery Operable Capacity, Percent Utilization of Operable Capacity Table found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 11/23/2005 10:51:13 AM

This feels like an unconvincing climb in the indices, and I'm not going long here, but the big Fed add and positive seasonality have me trying to treat my skepticism as "wall of worry" stuff.

Linda Piazza : 11/23/2005 10:50:29 AM

The SOX hasn't been able to make much progress since confirming its inverse H&S on the two-mintue chart. In fact, it's drifted back to test the neckline at about 486.09, with the SOX at 486.13 as I type.

Linda Piazza : 11/23/2005 10:49:10 AM

And there goes the TRAN above that neckline for that confirmed H&S. It's not climbing as strongly as I would have expected with a H&S invalidation, however, so far adhering to a descending regression channel off yesterday's late-day high. It's trying to break to the upside as I type, though, with the TRAN at 4169.26.

Jonathan Levinson : 11/23/2005 10:41:23 AM

QQQQ's rise is on declining volume this AM, but weak volume has been more bullish than bearish this month, and price continues to rise. The channels are clustering at R1, just below 42, setting that area up as strong resistance for the time being- but the longer that price stays above the 72 SMA at 41.75, the greater the likelihood of those channels continuing higher. Link

Linda Piazza : 11/23/2005 10:39:00 AM

The advdec line coils. If this were an equity, I'd say it's coiling in a possible bullish right triangle, but RSI is in neutral on the 15-minute chart, and there's just no signal.

Linda Piazza : 11/23/2005 10:37:29 AM

Thanks, Jonathan, for the information on the lack of natural-gas inventories information. I'm looking for it, too, and haven't found it.

Jonathan Levinson : 11/23/2005 10:35:59 AM

Headlines:

API: GASOLINE UP 1.29 MILLION BARRELS

API: CRUDE SUPPLIES UP 3.35 MILLION BARRELS

API: DISTILLATES UP 1.96 MILLION BARRELS

Linda Piazza : 11/23/2005 10:34:53 AM

The OEX keeps testing the upper boundary of that rising regression channel in which it's traded over the last few days. So far, it keeps falling back from the test, but it's not giving up easily.

The SOX has just confirmed its inverse H&S, continuation-form, on the two-minute chart.

Jeff Bailey : 11/23/2005 10:33:37 AM

SPY 126.48 +0.13% ... with OSX.X -1.65%, OIX -1.35%, XNG.X -1.24%

Linda Piazza : 11/23/2005 10:33:03 AM

The SOX has a nicely formed (but perhaps untrustworthy because it's a continuation-form) inverse H&S on its two-minute chart, necline at yesterday's 386.09 high, being tested as I type.

Jonathan Levinson : 11/23/2005 10:32:33 AM

I might be missing it, but I see no update on the EIA's natural gas storage webpage.

Jeff Bailey : 11/23/2005 10:31:59 AM

SPY alert $126.58 +0.22% ... MONTHLY R2 here.

QQQQ $41.85 +0.35% ... QQQ-MP $0.90 x $0.95

Jonathan Levinson : 11/23/2005 10:33:00 AM

Headlines:

DOE: DISTILLATES UP 1.1 MILLION BARRELS

DOE: CRUDE OIL SUPPLIES UP 400,000 BARRELS

DOE: GASOLINE STOCKS UP 200,000 BARRELS

Jonathan Levinson : 11/23/2005 10:31:20 AM

Session highs across the board, QQQQ at 41.85: Link

Jane Fox : 11/23/2005 10:30:47 AM

If you have to trade I would stay on the long side until these two at least retrace 50% of their daily range. Link

Jonathan Levinson : 11/23/2005 10:30:15 AM

From the EIA's website:

U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) increased by 0.4 million barrels from the previous week. At 321.8 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories remain well above the upper end of the average range for this time of year. Total motor gasoline inventories inched up by 0.2 million barrels last week, putting them in the lower half of the average range. Distillate fuel inventories rose by 1.1 million barrels last week, but are just above the lower end of the average range for this time of year. An increase in high-sulfur (heating oil) more than compensated for a slight decline in low-sulfur (diesel fuel) distillate fuel inventories. Total commercial petroleum inventories rose by 1.6 million barrels last week, and are near the upper end of the average range for this time of year.

Linda Piazza : 11/23/2005 10:29:10 AM

The TRAN has a downside target of 4153.25 from its confirmed H&S, but I'd be reluctant to guess whether it will meet that target when inventories are coming up in a few moments. Does someone know something about inventories, do you think, or are inventors just taking profits ahead of that number? The TRAN often zooms one direction or the other ahead of that number. Afterwards, it can as easily reverse direction as continue the same.

Linda Piazza : 11/23/2005 10:25:38 AM

I see no viable signals going into the inventories number.

Linda Piazza : 11/23/2005 10:25:00 AM

The TRAN has confirmed that H&S visible on its two-minute chart. It's not dropping much further, though, essentially still testing the two-minute 100/130-ema's.

Linda Piazza : 11/23/2005 10:21:05 AM

The TRAN hasn't gotten all that far away from that neckline for a potential H&S on its two-minute chart. The right shoulder looks a bit lopsided in comparison to the left, but it's still a valid formation, and the TRAN is testing the neckline again as I type. I wouldn't consider it confirmed until and unless the TRAN prints a two-minute close below support currently at 4164.82, however, and I'd be wary of any conclusions ahead of the inventories number. The TRAN is at 4166.71.

Jonathan Levinson : 11/23/2005 10:19:17 AM

Stepping away for 10 minutes. I will be back to report the EIA Petrol report at 10:30AM.

Jeff Bailey : 11/23/2005 10:18:54 AM

SPY $125.56 +0.20% ... challenges MONTHLY R2 here.

QQQQ $41.84 +0.33% ... session highs.

Jane Fox : 11/23/2005 10:18:08 AM

AD volume is making new daily highs and if you are short I would put some close stops on the position.

Jonathan Levinson : 11/23/2005 10:18:04 AM

Volume breadth is up to +1.44:1 on the NYSE, +2.72:1 on the Nasdaq. Somehow, bond yields are still green despite the Fed's generous open market ops this morning, TNX +1.1 bps at 4.439%, IRX +.3 bps at 3.835%.

Linda Piazza : 11/23/2005 10:15:09 AM

The OEX is not moving to confirm that small H&S on its one and two-minute charts, and I think we can now consider the formation invalidated, and the bulls encouraged. On several charts, RSI chops around near or slightly above the neutral level. Bearish divergence since Friday continues on the 15-minute chart. No signal.

Jeff Bailey : 11/23/2005 10:14:25 AM

10:00 Internals found at this Link

Note: Recent session's action along with this morning's readings would be enough to the the NYSE 10-day NH/NL ratio reversing up to 48.00%. I do not chart these values on the point and figure chart until today's close and all votes are counted.

Linda Piazza : 11/23/2005 10:11:35 AM

The advdec line has stopped climbing, finding resistance in the 400 region, as soon as the one-minute chart showed RSI above 70 again. Again, unless you want to trade on a one-minute signal, this is just a choppy session with no real signals either direction.

Be aware that inventories will be released soon, and Jim said last night that the release of natural gas inventories will be today, too. I haven't verified that for myself.

Jonathan Levinson : 11/23/2005 10:09:08 AM

QQQQ's short cycle downphase has stalled early, and a wavelet downphase is getting no traction. Volume is light so far on the Qs, to be expected, but I see no sign of weakness here. Link

Linda Piazza : 11/23/2005 10:04:41 AM

Minimal TRAN confirmation of the H&S, but then it bounced right back across the neckline. Sound familiar? It does to me.

Jane Fox : 11/23/2005 10:03:14 AM

Even though the bulls have the reins this morning they don't seem to be able to do much with them and cannot get any traction. I strongly advise all daytraders to put away the trading mouse today.

Jeff Bailey : 11/23/2005 10:03:04 AM

10:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 11/23/2005 10:02:52 AM

Help Wanted Index 38 vs. 39 exp.

Linda Piazza : 11/23/2005 10:02:39 AM

TRAN is on the verge of confirming a H&S on its one-minute chart, neckline at the current 4168.77 level. These days, that's just as easily a signal for an invalidation and a strong zoom.

Jeff Bailey : 11/23/2005 9:59:45 AM

UTStarcom (UTSI) $7.70 +4.47% Link ... Wireless equipment maker trades WEEKLY Pivot of $7.74 here. A post-halt (see 11/15/05 Market Monitor) high. Bar chart at this Link

Linda Piazza : 11/23/2005 9:59:40 AM

Potential (perhaps double-headed) H&S on the OEX's two-minute chart. Head just above 580, tested twice yesterday, left shoulder at about 2:20 yesterday, at 579.37, ascending neckline now crossing at about 579.10 currently, OEX appearing to turn down from the right-shoulder area as I type. "Appearing" is the operative word, however. We shouldn't watch these expecting them to be confirmed, since they've been most untrustworthy lately, but we can watch to see what they tell us about short-term bullish or bearish sentiment. The appropriate right-shoulder level actually extends beyond yesterday's high because the neckline slopes so steeply, but bears of course do not want the OEX to get above yesterday's high. Bears want that formation to confirm rather quickly, perhaps within the next ten to fifteen minutes, or else they should consider it invalidated just because they couldn't get the job done. In that case, bulls will be cheered and likely send the index higher.

Jonathan Levinson : 11/23/2005 9:57:48 AM

The Fed's open market desk has just announced a massive 10.5B 2-day repo to refund the remaining 4.75B expiring, for a net 5.75B add. The stop out rate dropped to 3.95, showing a declining demand for the money.

Jane Fox : 11/23/2005 9:55:55 AM

The bulls now have a firm grip on the reins. Both AD volume and line are above 0 and climbing and the VIX is making new daily lows.

Linda Piazza : 11/23/2005 9:53:37 AM

The advdec line moved past that mid-channel resistance and still climbs. The five-minute chart suggests it could still climb further, but the longer-term charts just show chop near the midline. No signals.

Linda Piazza : 11/23/2005 9:51:35 AM

BIX headed up again toward a retest of yesterday's high. BIX at 368.02, with yesterday's high at 368.40. The RLX reached higher than yesterday's high this morning, but is hitting 240-minute Keltner resistance and is retreating just a little. That resistance slopes up strongly, which indicates that the resistance may not be all that strong.

Jonathan Levinson : 11/23/2005 9:51:30 AM

QQQQ violates right shoulder resistance on yesterday afternoon's h&s pattern: Link

Jane Fox : 11/23/2005 9:51:22 AM

AD volume is now above 0 and climbing but the AD line remains below 0 so we are back into no man's land. However, the VIX is confirming ES's new daily highs with new daily lows so I have to give a little edge to the bulls.

Jonathan Levinson : 11/23/2005 9:49:22 AM

Volume breadth is up to +1.2:1 on the NYSE, +2:1 on the Nasdaq.

Linda Piazza : 11/23/2005 9:48:58 AM

Advdec line still testing that resistance, with the strongest band up to about +200. It's looking as if it's at least possible that it will hold, but the RSI hasn't risen far enough yet on the five-minute chart to show that the overdone pressure has been relieved. Not sure it's through testing yet.

Jonathan Levinson : 11/23/2005 9:48:11 AM

Michigan sentiment 81.6 vs. 81 exp.

Jeff Bailey : 11/23/2005 9:47:05 AM

QQQQ Jan $42 Put stop adjustment alert ... with QQQQ $41.83 +0.31%, I want to adjust lower my stop on the QQQQ Jan $42 Put (QQQ-MP) to $0.80 from $0.85.

Linda Piazza : 11/23/2005 9:46:39 AM

The top of the Q-Charts drawn rising regression channel in which the OEX has traveled this week appears to be at about 580.15-580.30, on five-minute closes. The OEX is still testing that resistance on the five-minute chart, with the resistance extending up to 580.24 on a five-minute closing basis. The OEX did reach down to test the midline this morning, and did bounce from it, as strong securities do and as I mentioned it might do, but no buy signal was given unless you want to go long on a signal on a one-minute chart! Smile.

Jeff Bailey : 11/23/2005 9:44:17 AM

Dow Jones Home Construction (DJUSHB) 966.85 +0.50% ... breaks above its 50% retracement of August/October decline.

Jeff Bailey : 11/23/2005 9:43:08 AM

S&P Depository Receipts (SPY) $126.38 +0.06% ... first sign that SPY might want to take a rest would be a move back under WEEKLY R1 and correlative WEEKLY retracement of $126.17. Yesterday's intra-day volume shows BIG volume on the move above $126.00. Bar chart with WEEKLY/MONTHLY Pivot retracements at this Link

For my currently open QQQQ Put trade, it becomes important for the SPY to stay under its MONTHLY R2.

Linda Piazza : 11/23/2005 9:42:06 AM

Advdec line bouncing off its low, up to test what looks like important resistance up to about +200, I believe. This short-term bounce was to be expected, but now we need to see what the advdec line does here. The 15-minute chart is not giving any kind of buy signal.

Linda Piazza : 11/23/2005 9:38:30 AM

OEX Keltner outlook, five-minute chart: The OEX has risen to test the five-minute Keltner resistance at 579.58-580.21. It's looking a little firmer than it has been looking,but still turns up enough that it's not certain that it will hold. It's being tested now, with the OEX at 579.66.

Linda Piazza : 11/23/2005 9:37:15 AM

TRAN still dropping. Which trendline matters? Which moving average? If your charts look like mine, there are trendlines everywhere, some that seemed to matter, but then their violations didn't. There are moving averages that appeared to be important (three-minute 100/130-ema's) but then their violations didn't.

Jane Fox : 11/23/2005 9:35:06 AM

The bears have the reins this morning with both the AD line and volume below 0 but don't think that will last all day. We know how easily the bulls have been able to yank them above 0 and then to new daily highs.

Linda Piazza : 11/23/2005 9:35:02 AM

The advdec line's downside move is overdone on the shortest time frames, on the 1 through 5-minute charts, so there could be a bounce attempt through here. There's no buy signal yet, but that doesn't mean that a bounce won't be more than an "attempt."

Linda Piazza : 11/23/2005 9:33:33 AM

I think we've got a broadening formation on the TRAN's 15-minute chart. Those are not indicative of stability, but they're rotten to try to guage. When is there an upside breakout? When a downside one?

Jonathan Levinson : 11/23/2005 9:33:00 AM

Volume breadth is -1.3:1 on the NYSE, +1.35:1 on the Nasdaq at the open.

Linda Piazza : 11/23/2005 9:32:28 AM

The advdec line is not yet at a point that suggest that it's overdone, except on the shortest time frames, so no buy signal right now.

Linda Piazza : 11/23/2005 9:31:54 AM

A repeat of the pattern we've seen so often lately, of selling in the morning. Advdec line currently dropping, OEX dropping through that rising regression channel, as the setup had suggested last night.

Jonathan Levinson : 11/23/2005 9:31:42 AM

QQQQ updated opening chart at this Link . 72 SMA support is just above yesterday's R1, currently at 41.67. 30 min channel resistance is at 41.93, support at 41.57.

Jeff Bailey : 11/23/2005 9:23:18 AM

Research in Motion (RIMM) $67.08 Link ... Marked lower at $62.25 after the maker of the Blackberry wireless device warned subscriber additions would come in lower than expected in the third and fourth quarters due to product launch delays.

The company lowered its fourth-quarter forecast for subscriber additions of 775,000 to 825,000 by about 3%. However, the company reaffirmed its third-quarter revenue projection of $540 million to $570 million and said it does not expect "any material impact" to its prior fourth-quarter revenue guidance.

Jane Fox : 11/23/2005 9:20:16 AM

I will keep an eye on the AD line/volume to see if we have another ~2:00EST move although today the chances are not all that great for any kind of move. However, that AD line/volume climb at 2:00 has been interesting the last few days.

Jeff Bailey : 11/23/2005 9:19:03 AM

Alexion Pharmaceuticals (ALXN) $29.56 Link ... Atop this morning's most active list and sharply lower at $21.24 after the company said a Phase III trial of its Pexelizumab found that the drug did reduce the combined incidence of heart attack or death through 30 days following the surgery in moderate-to-high risk patients but that it didn't meet the threshold for statistical significance.

Jonathan Levinson : 11/23/2005 9:09:37 AM

QQQQ's 30 and 60 min cycles have both stalled near the tops of their ranges on bearish divergent highs. The daily cycle remains pinned to the ceiling at top of its trending move. This is virtually identical, cyclewise, to the setup before the open on Friday, except that the rise preceding this morning's open is less extreme than that from last Thursday afternoon. Trendline support below the rally of the past 3 weeks is at 41.40, and above that level, the Qs remain comfortably within their rising price trend. I will post the intraday cycle and SMA levels when they update at the opening bell.

Jane Fox : 11/23/2005 8:57:02 AM

Dateline WSJ The Federal Reserve soon may become less predictable.

Minutes to the Nov. 1 meeting of Fed policy makers suggest they might stop giving strong hints about where interest rates are headed. Such a change in statements could lead to increased market volatility. "Several aspects of the statement language would have to be changed before long, particularly those related to the characterization of, and outlook for, policy," according to the minutes, which were released yesterday with a customary three-week lag.

Markets focused on a passage that said some policy makers "cautioned that risks of going too far with the tightening process could also eventually emerge." Investors cut the odds of future rate increases as a result. Instead of expecting the Fed to stop raising rates once its short-term rate target, now 4%, reaches 4.75%, investors currently give slightly higher odds on a halt occurring at 4.5%.

Jonathan Levinson : 11/23/2005 8:55:03 AM

The Fed remains easy via its open market desk, having replaced the expiring 9B 13-day repo with a 12B 15-day repo, leaving 4.75B expiring. That remaining 4.75B will be addressed in the 10AM announcement.

Jane Fox : 11/23/2005 8:54:57 AM

Dateline WSJ New claims for unemployment benefits last week made their largest advance in two months.

Initial jobless claims for the week rose by 30,000 to 335,000 in the week that ended Nov. 19, the Labor Department said Wednesday -- a day earlier than the normal weekly release because Thanksgiving Day falls on Thursday. The four-week average climbed by 1,250 to 323,250 from 322,000. Economists say a four-week average below 350,000 typically indicates an improving job market.

The 30,000-claim increase, the biggest since the week of Sept. 10, surprised Wall Street. The median estimate of 14 economists surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires and CNBC was for claims to increase by 12,000 to 315,000. Claims for the prior week, ending Nov. 12, were revised upward to 305,000. Originally, claims for that week were reported at a seasonally adjusted 303,000.

Linda Piazza : 11/23/2005 8:54:34 AM

The OEX climbed above that long-term resistance band, or at least the thickest part of it, yesterday. It climbed to test 580-ish round-number resistance. It's been climbing through a rising regression channel, with the newest version in place since last Friday. Each time it hits the top of that rising regression channel, an RSI move above 70 has signaled that the OEX is topping out, lending confirmation to the channel's validity. The entire time that channel has been forming, RSI has been hitting lower highs while price hit higher highs, signaling bearish divergence, but that obviously has made little difference to a trending market.

At the close, the signals were for a pullback to through the channel again. A security showing strength will often pull back only to the midline of a rising regression channel, and the OEX's midline is at about 578.50-578.60, so watch for a potential bounce from that midline. One guide: RSI has been bouncing from above 50, so watch RSI as the OEX pulls back. Bulls don't want to see it dip below 50.

Everything is extended. I ignored a long signal yesterday morning because of the holiday week shenanigans. The stop-running moves both directions were easy to spot, and they don't encourage me to trade this week. At one point, the OEX was sent sharply higher, only to quickly reverse, with some new longs surely being stopped. The same thing happened to the downside. It's easy to get whipsawed out of positions on a week like this one, even if you're right about the eventual direction.

We'll see what sets up. I said I wanted to see a break through this congestion and then a successful retest, so we'll watch for that, but I'm frankly scared about new long positions with the TRAN rushing up toward that envelope line that sometimes stops it cold and with the OEX having moved 10 points away from its 10-sma. I'm particularly concerned about direction today because of the crude inventories release. What happens if the TRAN has rushed up toward that ultimate target and perhaps ultimate resistance pre-release and then turns tail afterwards? Or if the TRAN looks as if it's rolling down from just beneath that target and then the inventories number shoots it higher again? Here's the TRAN's chart from last Friday's Wrap: Link

We won't count on the OEX turning down, because I've seen securities just break higher from rising regression channels that look like these, but we will look for that possibility and then for the possibility of a bounce or a breakdown below that channel, with the OEX finally headed back for a test of the 10-sma. I'm not going to be inclined to trade anything unless signals are more trustworthy.

Jonathan Levinson : 11/23/2005 8:31:47 AM

Ten year notes are unchanged from their pre-data levels, QQQQ holding a +.07 gain at 41.77.

Jonathan Levinson : 11/23/2005 8:31:01 AM

Headlines:

8:30am 4-WEEK MOVING CLAIMS AVERAGE RISES TO 323,250

8:30am CONTINUING CLAIMS RISE TO 2.82 MLN, UP BY 59,000

8:30am U.S. JOBLESS CLAIMS OUTPACE ECONOMISTS' EXPECTATIONS

8:30am U.S. INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS RISE TO 335,000

Jonathan Levinson : 11/23/2005 8:23:06 AM

Ten year notes hold a 3/32 loss, with TNX quoted higher by 1.1 bps at 4.439%.

Jonathan Levinson : 11/23/2005 7:35:49 AM

From the Mortgage Bankers Assoc. website:

WASHINGTON, D.C. (November 23, 2005) -The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) today released its Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending November 18. The Market Composite Index - a measure of mortgage loan application volume - was 635.4, a decrease of 3.4 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from 657.6 one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index increased 4.8 percent compared with the previous week, but was down 11.8 percent compared with the same week one year earlier.

The seasonally-adjusted Purchase Index decreased by 1.2 percent to 472.3 from 477.9 the previous week whereas the Refinance Index decreased by 6.9 percent to 1584.1 from 1702.4 one week earlier. The Refinance Index is down 17.4 percent compared to four weeks ago when the index was 2144.5 Other seasonally adjusted index activity includes the Conventional Index, which decreased 2.8 percent to 953.4 from 980.8 the previous week, and the Government Index, which decreased 11.4 percent to 104.6 from 118.1 the previous week.

The four week moving average for the seasonally-adjusted Market Index is down 1.7 percent to 650.3 from 661.2. The four week moving average is up 0.3 percent to 463.4 from 461.9 for the Purchase Index, while this average is down 4.6 percent to 1737.0 from 1820.2 for the Refinance Index.

The refinance share of mortgage activity decreased to 39.9 percent of total applications from 40.4 percent the previous week. The adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) share of activity increased to 33.2 percent of total applications from 32.9 percent the previous week.

Jonathan Levinson : 11/23/2005 7:34:45 AM

Equities are mixed, with ES trading 1262.25, NQ 1697.5, YM 10879 and QQQQ +.07 at 41.77. Gold and silver are down to 489.20 and 8.074, ten year notes are down 1/32 to 109 1/4, and amazingly, Interactive Brokers still can't issue a quote on Nymex oil or gas.

We await the 8:30 release of Initial Claims, est. 312K, then at 9:45, Michigan Sentiment, est. 81, at 10AM the Help Wanted Index, and at 10:30, the weekly Petroleum Report.

Linda Piazza : 11/23/2005 6:45:49 AM

Good morning. The Nikkei was closed for a national holiday last night. Most other Asian markets climbed, as do most European markets this morning. As of 6:38 EST, gold was down $4.00 to $488.90, and crude, down $0.43 to $58.41. More details about Asian and European markets follows in succeeding paragraphs.

Last night, the Nikkei was closed for a national holiday, Labor Thanksgiving Day, and news was scarce out of Japan. The Bank of Japan's Fukui did state that the central bank and the government shared the goal of bringing about sustainable economic growth and stable price movements. He also said that the central bank's policy board will make the needed decision and then take full responsibility for that decision. There has been some tension between the central bank and the government, with the government anxious not to change the monetary policy too quickly.

Most other Asian markets, and all typically noted in this report, gained. The Taiwan Weighted gained 1.06%. South Korea's Kospi had dropped heavily on Tuesday, but its exporters swung it higher again on Wednesday on hopes that an ending of U.S interest-rate hikes would increase the appetite for South Korea's exports. Semi-related stocks bounced a day after being hit by the news of the Micron/Intel joint venture. Samsung gained even though an investigation has begun into the company's flash memory supply deal with Apple. The Kospi gained 3.01%. Singapore's Straits Times rose 0.81%, and Hong Kong's Hang Seng gained 1.19%. China's Shanghai Composite rose 0.65%. China's CNOOC still seeks to buy liquefied natural gas from Chevron's Gorgon project in Australia, one article reports, even though negotiations are currently stalled.

Most European markets gain. Central bankers were speaking across the globe last night, and the Bank of England's monetary policy committee member Walton was one. Walton mentioned that CPI was above target and said that CPI together more encouraging consumer spending and growth data points to a need keep interest rates steady rather than ease. The Bank of England minutes, released this morning, showed a unanimous vote for unchanged rates and no hint of next direction. Wages and crude prices remained of some concern. In Italy, November's consumer confidence number rose to 108.8, a three-year high, from October's revised higher 105.6. Durable goods figures fell, however. In another release, the September Eurostat new industrial orders climbed 1.1% against August's revised higher 0.1%. Yearly growth dropped significantly, to 4.6% from August's 7.5%. Demand rose 1.1% quarter over quarter in the third quarter.

Stocks reacting to news included France's steelmaker Arcelor, declining after the company revealed an interest in making a hostile bid for Canada's Dofasco Inc. More M&A news included a report by a British newspaper that the U.K.'s construction and infrastructure group Amec PLC had received a takeover bid from a competitor in Europe, and Amec rose in early trading. Air France-KLM and Anglo Irish Bank gained after their earnings reports. Belgian-Dutch financial-services group Fortis dropped after its earnings report. Goldman Sachs downgraded Merck, and that company's stock dropped. Yesterday, Merck had announced that its chief executive was leaving immediately.

As of 6:41 EST, the FTSE 100 was higher by 2.10 points or 0.04%, at 5,519.30. The CAC 40 was higher by 20.47 points or 0.45%, to 4,601.28. The DAX was higher by 14.67 points or 0.28%, to 5,189.39.

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