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Jeff Bailey : 12/1/2005 1:25:14 AM

Program Trading Levels for Thursday ... HL Camp & Company has their computers set for program buying at $+2.56 and set for program selling at $+0.44.

Jeff Bailey : 12/1/2005 12:43:46 AM

Good move Tab! (selling 1/2 of the UOPIX)

Tab Gilles : 12/1/2005 12:48:29 AM

NASDAQ 100 ($NDX)/ Profund UOPIX-USPIX [Per 11/30 8:32 AM post]

Sold 1/2 position of Profund Ultra OTC (UOPIX), entered on 11/26 1/2 position @ $22.66 and 11/2 1/2 position $23.66; avg cost basis $23.16. Sold on 11/30 closing NAV of $25.40 for a +9.67% gain. Entered 1/2 position USPIX- Profund UltraShort OTC fund a closing NAV of $15.03.

Based on $NDX chart closing below 10-ema stop and MACD. Link Link

However, the Nasdaq Summation Index, both daily and weekly, did not reverse their respective bull modes. At least not Wednesday. I'm just hedging here and trying to catch a pullback/consolidation on the NDX. Of course this may play out to be a bigger correction, but seasonally this has been a bullish time. Just look back to the June/July timeframe this year, where the $NASI keep rising and the NDX had a 5% pullback, which was 10% on the USPIX (leveraged 2:1). Link

So, are we in store for a similar pullback? Maybe, but I'll keep a close eye on the MACD, RSI, Stochastics, $VXN and $NASI charts and trade accordingly.

Jeff Bailey : 12/1/2005 12:50:47 AM

SPY / SPX Option Chain found at this Link as of 11/30 close. OI is from 11/29/05 close. For SPX, I've quickly tabulated increases or decreases in OI from the 11/29/05 11:00 AM EST benchmarking and Option Trader's Question. Here was that snapshot Link

Trader's question surrounded the 1,250 strike. In PINK, I've marked the newly discovered MONTHLY Pivot. Might be informative tomorrow to see what OI is for the 1,250 puts. VIX was little changed today, 1,250 dn/up tick vol was even, yet the 1,250 puts traded "heavy" at 10,040, but OI about 20K less than the 1,250 Call OI.

Jeff Bailey : 11/30/2005 11:05:48 PM

QQQQ options chain at 11/30/05 Close Link

Jeff Bailey : 11/30/2005 10:57:20 PM

Pivot Matrix for Thursday at this Link

OI Technical Staff : 11/30/2005 9:59:59 PM

The Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

Disclaimer: Stocks discussed in the Market Monitor are for educational purposes only and any analysis is not meant to imply a recommendation for or against that stock. The analysts in this forum as on any other website are prohibited by the SEC from giving any specific advice to ANY individual trader. All information posted is for ALL readers and is not meant to be directed to any individual. Our analysts cannot answer any email questions regarding any specific stock. Please do not ask and please do not take offense if requests are denied.

Results posted in the Market Monitor are hypothetical and OIN does not claim that any reader achieved these exact results. Due to the lag time between research, writing, posting, uploading, reading and execution there will be differences between the actual signal given and the fill achieved by the reader. Fills may be better or worse but in most cases they will be different. The writers will make every effort to give advance notice of intended signals and indicate potential price targets. Your individual results may vary depending on your activity level and aggressiveness. This forum is intended as an education service only. Trading involves risk and should not be attempted by anyone not ready to accept this risk. By acting on any signal in this forum you agree and personally accept this risk.

Jeff Bailey : 11/30/2005 9:26:01 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles found at this Link

Today's Activity ... Stopped on the swing trade long from yesterday at $41.28 ($-0.16, or -0.39%).

Day traded short shares of Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) at the bid of $26.17. Closed out 1/2 of the position at $26.19 ($-0.02, or -0.08%)

Carried the remaining 1/2 short in AMD overnight with stop at $26.37, target of $25.78.

Jeff Bailey : 11/30/2005 8:50:15 PM

Closing U.S. Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 11/30/2005 8:25:26 PM

Closing Internals found at this Link ... Volumes were heavy at both the NYSE and NASDAQ today.

Average daily volume at the big board was 2.13 billion per day for November, down 10% from October's 2.36 billion per day average. November of 2004 saw an average daily volume of 1.50 billion shares change hands per day.

NASDAQ volume averaged 1.74 billion shares per day in November, down 2% from October's 1.76 billion share per day average. November of 2004 saw an average daily volume of 1.87 billion shares change hands per day.

Jeff Bailey : 11/30/2005 7:55:24 PM

QQQQ with new MONTHLY Pivot retracement at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 11/30/2005 5:02:02 PM

Hmmm ... this MONTH's S1 for the QQQQ would be a MAX TARGET decline. Note that that price is highly correlative with November's MONTHLY 38.2% (see chart from 04:16:00).

With overhead supply vastly exhausted, computers have had to short to the market to meet November's demand and will need to replenish inventory, most likely on any type of test of December's MONTHLY Pivot.

Jeff Bailey : 11/30/2005 4:59:40 PM

QQQQ ... MONTHLY Pivot Levels for December ... $37.35, $39.29, Piv= $40.66, $42.60, $43.97.

Jeff Bailey : 11/30/2005 4:16:00 PM

QQQQ goes out at November's MONTHLY R2. Not bad after starting out at MONTHLY Pivot Link

Jonathan Levinson : 11/30/2005 4:02:50 PM

Daily QQQQ chart updated at this Link

Linda Piazza : 11/30/2005 4:04:48 PM

OEX/SPX Option Trade Signals
Bearish options play entered this morning when OEX at 579.09. Automatic profit stop taken at 577.80, for a 1.29-point OEX move in the direction of the entry. Sure could have ridden that one down a bit longer, but evidence was mixed and there was the important Beige Book release coming up soon after our profit-target was hit. No other signal presented during the afternoon.

Jeff Bailey : 11/30/2005 4:00:25 PM

Bearish day trade close out 1/2 position alert ... in AMD $26.19 here. Let's hold the other 1/2.

Jeff Bailey : 11/30/2005 3:57:14 PM

SOX.X 481.89 ... Holding DAILY R1

QQQQ $41.23 ... holding DAILY S1

Linda Piazza : 11/30/2005 3:57:32 PM

End-of-day decisions: The OEX looks as if it's going to end the day right on that 573.59-574.80 next support zone that I've been mentioning today. If you're in a bearish position (could be doing the coulda/woulda/shoulda thing about holding onto our earlier bearish play, but I'm not going to wallow in that), you've got a tough decision to make. I think I'd take partial profit, at least, if I hadn't already. Whether to take full profit or just partial is a more difficult decision that should be account-specific. I'm holding onto a small position overnight, but I wouldn't risk too much, as this week is chock full of economic releases. Do not hold overnight if you can't afford to lose on the position.

Jonathan Levinson : 11/30/2005 3:52:47 PM

Session lows across the board. QQQQ channel support is at 41.10. On YM, it's being tested now at 10830.

Jeff Bailey : 11/30/2005 3:52:27 PM

AMD & SOX.X intra-day charts (Monday to current) with QCharts' DAILY/WEEKLY Pivot levels at this Link

Linda Piazza : 11/30/2005 3:52:04 PM

Subscriber Lynne wrote mentioning that the BKX was turning down from a long-term rising regression channel. Here it is, if I've drawn it as Lynne envisioned it: Link Great observation, Lynne.

Jonathan Levinson : 11/30/2005 3:50:04 PM

Volume breadth has yet to go negative for the Nasdaq, now down to +1.25:1.

Jonathan Levinson : 11/30/2005 3:49:14 PM

QQQQ is parked right at intraday support as YM and ES make new lows. Link

Linda Piazza : 11/30/2005 3:41:51 PM

TRAN at 4112.00, a new low for the day and verging on a breakdown below the 30-minute 100/130-ema's.

Linda Piazza : 11/30/2005 3:39:02 PM

The OEX is again edging just below the important 30-minute 100/130-ema's. It's edged below them earlier, during the previous 30-minute period. The 50% retracement of the OEX's last climb off the low of the 16th, is at 574.83, another reason to look for potential support there, if not earlier. Just below that is the bottom support of the broadening formation, too.

Jonathan Levinson : 11/30/2005 3:36:31 PM

New lows from ES and YM while QQQQ holds up within its morning range, still a tale of two markets. There are preliminary short cycle buy signals printing for QQQQ, and the TRINQ is neutral/bullish at .79 (compared to 1.28 for the NYSE TRIN).

Linda Piazza : 11/30/2005 3:33:42 PM

I look at the way the OEX is behaving and I don't see any evidence yet that it will pull up into the close, other than the ongoing bullish divergence on the 15-minute chart. That's been doing on all day, however, and RSI just essentially chops around in a range that isn't giving any true signals. However, I look at the daily chart and I can't imagine that there won't be an effort to pull the OEX and some other indices back above their 10-sma's, so I have mixed feelings about what might happen into the close.

Linda Piazza : 11/30/2005 3:25:43 PM

OEX still sliding lower, still finding resistance on 15-minute closes at a Keltner line currently at 576.80. OEX at 575.95 as I type. If you're in a bearish position, know how you'll deal with a test of 573.72-574.50 next support, if touched.

Jonathan Levinson : 11/30/2005 3:22:55 PM

Volume breadth is still mixed, currently -1.3:1 on the NYSE and +1.5:1 on the Nasdaq.

Linda Piazza : 11/30/2005 3:20:26 PM

Advdec line testing the three-minute Keltner support that bounced it just before 3:00. It's just coiling.

Jeff Bailey : 11/30/2005 3:18:05 PM

SOX.X 482.81 +1.49% ... hasn't wanted to give up its WEEKLY Pivot this afternoon. Not yet.

AMD ... see that $26.10 afternoon set of lows (on 5-minute chart) ... I think that comes from SOX.X holding WEEKLY Pivot at this point.

Jonathan Levinson : 11/30/2005 3:17:32 PM

Daily chart of QQQQ at this Link . The lower low and lower high were enough to generate daily cycle sell signals.

Linda Piazza : 11/30/2005 3:17:22 PM

TRAN dropping toward toward the day's low again, with the TRAN at 4116.60 as I type, and with the day's low at 4113.20. I can't see the TRAN easily letting go of the 4100 level after such a strong climb without at least another bounce attempt from this level, but it's possible that it's going to drop toward 4077-4080 next support before attempting a stronger climb.

Jeff Bailey : 11/30/2005 3:11:12 PM

03:00 Internals found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 11/30/2005 3:18:00 PM

Back. QQQQ failed again below the declining 72 SMA, and the 30 min cycle upphase has now stalled, with the channel already tilting lower. 30 min channel support is down to 41.10 here, where it lines up with descending linear support from yesterday. Link

Linda Piazza : 11/30/2005 3:11:07 PM

OEX still sliding down that resistance toward 574.80-573.73 support. Be careful about potential short-covering into the close, though, since shorts could be understandably cautious about not collecting profits when offered.

Linda Piazza : 11/30/2005 3:04:57 PM

So far, the advdec line's 450-ish resistance is holding, but only tentatively so far, with the advdec line at 382 as I type. No signals here.

Jeff Bailey : 11/30/2005 3:01:50 PM

03:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 11/30/2005 3:01:34 PM

OEX Keltner resistance at 577.08 on 15-minute closes. OEX at 576.78 as I type.

Linda Piazza : 11/30/2005 3:00:34 PM

Advdec line climbing strongly as I type, at least as seen on the three-minute chart. There was Keltner-style bullish divergence on that last test, but not value/RSI divergence. It looks for now as if the advdec line is just zooming up to test 450-ish resistance. Advdec line at 398 as I type, with next resistance at about 710 if the 450-ish is broken.

Linda Piazza : 11/30/2005 2:56:25 PM

Slightly lower low on the OEX. It's still sliding down along that Keltner support at 576.48, now actually below it, but still clinging to it in Keltner terms. The OEX begins to look vulnerable to 573.78-574.80 on that chart, but it has to lose that support first. Until it does, there's danger that it will reverse and it's beginning to take on a little of a bullish falling wedge look today.

Jonathan Levinson : 11/30/2005 2:51:16 PM

Stepping away for 10 minutes.

Linda Piazza : 11/30/2005 2:48:04 PM

Now the advdec line coils even on the three-minute chart.

Linda Piazza : 11/30/2005 2:43:42 PM

Just checked the TRAN's 240-minute chart. That's a chart I often trust for longer-term predictions. The TRAN is now testing the 240-minute support from which it's been bouncing all through November, with that support at 4109.86-4117.91 on 240-minute closes. Bounce potential remains.

Jonathan Levinson : 11/30/2005 2:42:42 PM

Volume breadth is down to 1.1:1 on the NYSE, +1.42:1 on the Nasdaq.

Linda Piazza : 11/30/2005 2:42:15 PM

The TRAN dipped briefly below the support in the 4115-4121 zone, dropping to a low of 4113.88 before rebounding, now at 4120.31 as I type. Whether you consider that rough formation a H&S or just a rounding-over upside-down saucer formation, the TRAN is in danger of dipping over. The actual ascending trendline for the TRAN off the October lows is now at about 4077, so there's danger of a bounce from that zone, if it should be reached.

Jonathan Levinson : 11/30/2005 2:37:32 PM

QQQQ fails below the 72 SMA and is now back to testing the session lows. The short cycle downphase has run most of its course, and it's looking like the 30/60 min channel bottoms at 41.15-.18 will hold if tested directly from here. Only an extreme trending move would violate that level, and so far, we've seen none of those today. Link

Linda Piazza : 11/30/2005 2:29:11 PM

OEX again testing that Keltner resistance I just mentioned. Advdec line testing the last three-minute swing high, moving a little above it as I type, but only a little. Perhaps that long signal on the three-minute should have been trusted? I'm still on the side that there's not enough clarity yet to go long and see the OEX now just chopping around between the 30-minute 100 and 130-ema's, at 577.48 and 576.04 on 30-minute closes.

Linda Piazza : 11/30/2005 2:21:44 PM

No clarity. Sometimes when you study charts and you come away without a strong impression of next direction, you feel dumb, but in truth, you may just be assessing a lack of clarity.

So far, the OEX can't close 15-minute periods above the Keltner line currently at 577.59, and as long as that continues, it's likely to slide lower along Keltner support now at 576.38-576.72.

Jeff Bailey : 11/30/2005 2:19:55 PM

QQQQ $41.34 (unch) ... for second-time today, hold the WEEKLY/MONTHLY pivot retracement overlap. QQQQ chart from Monday's MM at this Link

Linda Piazza : 11/30/2005 2:14:07 PM

OEX facing Keltner resistance at 577.69 on 15-minute closes. This resistance has more or less held since about 10:30 today.

Jonathan Levinson : 11/30/2005 2:13:32 PM

One thing that's clear is that the 30 min cycle upphase is weak in the extreme. It hasn't reversed, but it's been sideways at best, with new lows for the day printing on its watch. The 60 min cycle is the wildcard, but so far it's been way behind the action and also very weak.

Jeff Bailey : 11/30/2005 2:12:42 PM

02:00 Internals found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 11/30/2005 2:08:34 PM

OEX knocked back immediately. I did not trust that signal, as I mentioned, but we have to see how this retest of the 10-sma is handled. That average is at 577.01 with the OEX at 577.06 as I type. If the OEX firmly loses that support, it looks to me as if might fall to 575 or maybe even to 571.50 to retest the descending trendline off the year's high. So far, that support is holding, however.

Linda Piazza : 11/30/2005 2:05:35 PM

OEX bouncing from its test of the 10-sma. This is an expected bounce, but where will it take the OEX. My most trusted advdec chart gives me no signal at all.

Jonathan Levinson : 11/30/2005 2:05:21 PM

QQQQ 41.42 is short cycle channel resistance above which the short cycle sell signal printed 10 minutes ago will prove to have been a headfake: Link

Jane Fox : 11/30/2005 2:04:47 PM

TICKS +800 - those poor bears just can't get a footing no matter what.

Linda Piazza : 11/30/2005 2:03:24 PM

Advdec line bouncing from support that was being tested. The three-minute chart gives a buy signal, but . . . this time, I don't trust it.

Jeff Bailey : 11/30/2005 2:03:23 PM

02:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 11/30/2005 2:02:31 PM

QQQQ trades 3 cents off the low to 41.26, TNX down to 1.8 bps at 4.5% with a slight bid returning to bonds.

Jonathan Levinson : 11/30/2005 2:01:46 PM

Headlines:

ECONOMY IMPROVING BUT AT UNEVEN PACE: FED BEIGE BOOK

FACTORY SECTOR A STAR OF AUTUMN ECONOMY: BEIGE BOOK

RETAILERS GENERALLY OPTIMISTIC ABOUT HOLIDAYS: BEIGE BOOK

BUSINESSES REPORT RISING INPUT PRICES: BEIGE BOOK

CONSUMER PRICES FLAT OR UP ONLY MODESTLY: BEIGE BOOK

SOME SIGNS OF INCREASED HIRING: BEIGE BOOK

HOUSING MARKET COOLING OFF IN SEVERAL AREAS: BEIGE BOOK

Jeff Bailey : 11/30/2005 2:00:37 PM

Bearish day trade short alert ... for Advanced Micro (AMD) $26.17 +2.30% here, stop $26.37, target $25.78

Linda Piazza : 11/30/2005 2:00:30 PM

The advdec line is right on that horizontal support line that I've had marked on the chart all day. The OEX is below the 10-sma, but poised on the important 30-minute 100/130-ema's. It really is either breakdown or bounce time, but we have to see what is given to us. I might not be fast enough at posting to post an entry, and the more trusted 15-minute advdec line chart isn't anywhere near giving me one anyway.

Linda Piazza : 11/30/2005 1:57:21 PM

Not looking good for bulls here, but that could change in an instant.

Jonathan Levinson : 11/30/2005 1:56:39 PM

Session lows across the board ahead of the Beige Book, scheduled for official release in 4 minutes.

Jonathan Levinson : 11/30/2005 1:56:14 PM

All the intraday cycles are opposed at this point- short cycle rolling over within 30 min cycle pointing up within 60 min sliding sideways within oversold. In other words, a mess. The daily cycle should be biased lower at this point, but of course, a strong bounce to yesterday's highs could stall that too.

Linda Piazza : 11/30/2005 1:56:08 PM

Here's where the advdec line is positioned on its 7-minute chart. Note the black channel lines and the horizontal blue support (from the 30-minute chart). The advdec line is poised for another bounce or for a breakdown. Link I'm not going to speculate which just ahead of the 2:00 release.

Jeff Bailey : 11/30/2005 1:51:46 PM

DAILY/WEEKLY/MONTHLY Pivot Matrix at this Link with today's action marked on DAILY in light blue.

At today's close, we'll get new MONTHLY Pivot levels.

Jonathan Levinson : 11/30/2005 1:50:59 PM

QQQQ loses 72 SMA support here, the short cycle indicators rolling over. 30 min channel support had risen to 41.21, now stalling: Link

Jonathan Levinson : 11/30/2005 1:49:23 PM

Session low for ten year notes, TNX now up 2.8 bps at 4.51%. 13-week rates are down 4 bps to 3.847%, steepening the yield curve. Awaiting the Fed's Beige Book in 11 minutes.

Linda Piazza : 11/30/2005 1:48:01 PM

Since about 12:30 yesterday, the advdec line's 15-minute RSI has chopped between about 40 and 60, not giving a single good signal. It's at 42.52 as I type. The three-minute chart is again approaching levels indicating that the downside is approaching overdone levels over the very short term. It's not quite there yet, though, and it looks as if the advdec line could easily decline to 440, if not below. It's at 535 as I type. This mess is going to see a breakout sometime or another, but in which direction?

Linda Piazza : 11/30/2005 1:40:11 PM

The TRAN confirmed a H&S on its two-mintue chart, did drop but not quite to its target and now rises right back above the neckline again. Rises strongly. Lots of chopping around today.

Linda Piazza : 11/30/2005 1:39:23 PM

The OEX hit or nearly hit 15-minute Keltner support again, at 577.12, and is bouncing. Watch 578.51 on two-minute closes if the OEX should rise that far. OEX 577.92 is next resistance.

Jonathan Levinson : 11/30/2005 1:36:48 PM

QQQQ is back to the 72 SMA at 41.37 as YM and ES make new lows.

Jeff Bailey : 11/30/2005 1:34:12 PM

Cisco Systems (CSCO) $17.60 +0.51% ... DAILY Pivot $17.61

Jeff Bailey : 11/30/2005 1:33:09 PM

Palm, Inc. (PALM) $28.00 +4.66% ...

Jeff Bailey : 11/30/2005 1:32:29 PM

Research in Motion (RIMM) $60.50 -6.33% ... released for trade.

Linda Piazza : 11/30/2005 1:32:03 PM

The advdec line turned down right on schedule from the "fully overdone" level I mentioned in my 1:18:49 post. The OEX drops, too. Too bad these signals are coming on a three-minute chart and so their signals are not trustworthy enough for an options play with such potentially strong support beneath. It's difficult to gauge the relative importance of the pivots and resistance overhead and the support underneath, especially with the OEX inside a broadening formation and inside that long-term S/R band on my charts.

Jeff Bailey : 11/30/2005 1:32:00 PM

Microsoft (MSFT) $27.73 +0.18% ... DAILY Pivot $27.68

Jeff Bailey : 11/30/2005 1:31:16 PM

Intel (INTC) $26.76 -0.07% ... DAILY Pivot $26.88

Jonathan Levinson : 11/30/2005 1:25:51 PM

Volume breadth is +1.1:1 on the NYSE, +2.5:1 on the Nasdaq here. QQQQ volume is surprisingly heavy given the tight price action, 55.4M traded so far compared with yesterday's 77.4M and the 89.5M average.

Jeff Bailey : 11/30/2005 1:22:28 PM

SOX.X 484.17 +1.76% ... has managed to reclaim its WEEKLY Pivot in last half-hour.

QQQQ $41.45 +0.26% ... eyeballing its DAILY Pivot. If broken, DAILY R1/WEEKLY Pivot correlative.

Jonathan Levinson : 11/30/2005 1:19:04 PM

Crude oil is unchanged here at 56.50, 45 cents off the earlier high.

Linda Piazza : 11/30/2005 1:18:48 PM

The advdec line now on the three-minute chart, if you trust that, is now signaling that the upside move is fully overdone and signaling bearish divergence when compared to the last swing higher. Be careful if long. If you kept a partial bearish position earlier from our bearish entry, you're doing okay, but that support zone has now been proven to be support, so be careful. Next Keltner support at 577.20 on 15-minute closes. I don't think the OEX has yet fully ruled out the possibility of rising toward 579.26-579.56 yet.

Jeff Bailey : 11/30/2005 1:15:03 PM

01:00 Internals found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 11/30/2005 1:14:35 PM

We've got another broadening formation on the TRAN, this one at the bottom of today's range, with the boundaries now at about 4114 on the downside and 4150 on the upside, but expanding quickly. This is not a good atmosphere in which to trade.

Linda Piazza : 11/30/2005 1:12:52 PM

OEX testing next resistance at 578.65-578.74. Have your profit-protecting plans in place.

Jonathan Levinson : 11/30/2005 1:11:17 PM

QQQQ's 60 min cycle still hasn't turned up, and has been lagging the action all week. The 30 min cycle is nearly halfway into its rise, as is the short cycle. The bias remains to the upside, and if the bulls can break 41.50, it should pull the 60 min cycle into the game as well. Only the wavelet cycle is maxxed out to the upside so far and is already beginning to trend in overbought territory. Link

Linda Piazza : 11/30/2005 1:11:16 PM

Three-minute advdec line showing the upside movement more closely approaching overdone now, with the possibility for a further rise, but with first resistance nearby. The advdec line is mostly swinging through the five-minute channel that spans from near 470 on the bottom to near 1400 on the top. It's at 950 as I type, in the middle of that zone.

Linda Piazza : 11/30/2005 1:08:12 PM

The advdec line also has a potential inverse H&S, with the OEX already confirming its version, trying to lead the advdec line higher, too, as the blue chips have been doing lately. The OEX move needs to be confirmed by an advdec line move and the OEX also needs a 15-minute close above 578.27. The next resistance, at 579.38-579.63 looks relatively firm, however, so I'd have my profit-protecting plans in mind for a test of that zone, if it occurs. OEX at 578.34 as I type.

Linda Piazza : 11/30/2005 1:05:29 PM

There's a potential inverse H&S visible on the OEX's 2- and three-minute charts, at the bottom of the decline, head at today's low, neckline at about 578.32 and being tested as I type with the OEX at 578.31.

Jeff Bailey : 11/30/2005 1:02:42 PM

01:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 11/30/2005 1:02:00 PM

The OEX finally hit that first Keltner resistance, now at 578.21 on 15-minute closes but higher during the last 15-minute period, and it's at least temporarily turning down from that resistance. If this keeps up, this isn't saying a lot for bullish strength.

No new signals for me.

Linda Piazza : 11/30/2005 1:00:15 PM

The advdec line's three-minute chart is almost back to a signal showing that the upside is overdone. It's not quite there, but each time it rises and gives this signal today, it's rising only to a lower level of resistance before hitting that overdone signal. I'm not sure it's through rising yet.

Jonathan Levinson : 11/30/2005 12:59:14 PM

The Qs have cleared 72 SMA resistance for the 2nd time today, this time on the break above 41.38. The last break, at 10:30, lasted for less than 25 minutes before reversing lower, and hit the ceiling at 41.49. 41.47-.50 remains confluence resistance, a break above which would confirm bullishness in the 30 min cycle. Link

Jeff Bailey : 11/30/2005 12:58:16 PM

BioCryst (BCRX) $15.71 +33.02% ... with 22.5 million traded so far today. Short interest data at this Link

On October 14, BCRX closed at $16.75 on its way to recent high of $18.42.

Linda Piazza : 11/30/2005 12:55:22 PM

If you've entered an OEX long play on the thoughts that there would be a bounce from the 10-sma, a reasonable assumption, you want more confirmation than you're getting yet. Also, consider what you'll do at the powerful 579.20-580.50 resistance zone, shown to be resistance today and with weekly and daily pivots at the top of that zone, along with other forms of resistance. Be careful today as there's just a lot of uncertainty and markets feel strange.

Linda Piazza : 11/30/2005 12:53:18 PM

Advdec line testing resistance on the three-minute chart, with that at about 570 on a three-minute chart and with the advdec line now at 586, QCharts value. This is a tentative sign that the advdec line will climb now, but this is just a three-minute chart and these aren't the most trustworthy of signals. I'd love to call a long play here, but other longer-term advdec line charts show a possibility for the advdec line to get trapped between nearby support and nearby resistance, and so the evidence just isn't there for a long play.

Meanwhile, the OEX hasn't even risen into the 578.23 next resistance on 15-minute closes. It's at 577.87 as I type.

Jeff Bailey : 11/30/2005 12:52:23 PM

BioCryst (BCRX) $15.78 +33.53% Link ... good gravy! Stock opened at $13.68 and has built gains.

This morning, Roche Holdings said it has licensed an experimental compount from BCRX as a potential drug for organ transplant rejection and auto-immune diseases.

New catalyst here as stock had been volatile whenever Bird Flu news was present.

Jonathan Levinson : 11/30/2005 12:41:50 PM

QQQQ holds within its premarket range, flat for the day at 41.35. Link

Linda Piazza : 11/30/2005 12:39:11 PM

I haven't seen even the earliest signals for a long play according to the advdec line yet, but I'm not going to get a long signal any time soon according to the most trustworthy 15-minute chart. It's nowhere near giving a signal. Meanwhile, the OEX follows 15-minute Keltner "support" at 577.41 on 15-minute closes, following it lower. Watching for a rise to next Keltner resistance at 578.36 to see how that's handled, but so far, the OEX isn't rising to test that.

Jeff Bailey : 11/30/2005 12:40:03 PM

Palm (PALM) $28.18 +5.26% Link ... RIMM's rival. Stock has shown a recent history of jumping higher on an "negative" RIMM/NTP news, but then fades those gains.

Nice looking reverse head/shoulder pattern develops, with a neckline close above $28.10 a possible bullish catalyst. Bar chart at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 11/30/2005 12:35:37 PM

Research in Motion (RIMM) $65.28 +0.55% ... Update: US District Judge James Spencer said he he would request briefs and set a hearing date to deal with the remaining issues of injunctive relief and appropriate damages against RIM.

However, Judge Spencer refused to delay the patent infringement case and rejected a disputed settlement with patent holder NTP

Reuters story at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 11/30/2005 12:27:45 PM

There was a sell program premium generated at 12:17 PM EST.

DIA fell to $108.67, SPX fell to 1,254.71, QQQQ went to $41.28

Linda Piazza : 11/30/2005 12:24:38 PM

The OEX came within 11 cents of its 10-sma. The advdec line tests Keltner support on the five-minute chart, showing bullish divergence when compared with its previous two tests of this particular channel line this morning, but it looks possible for there to be a little more downside, at least. There's certainly no new signal on the 15-minute chart as yet.

Linda Piazza : 11/30/2005 12:19:54 PM

The SOX has already begun a bounce attempt from its 30-minute 100/130-ema's. It has not yet broken out above the latest bull-flag-looking descending regresion channel, but it's certainly been testing the breakout level, which QCharts says is at the current 481.30 level on a 30-minute close. Keep the SOX on your radar screen.

Jeff Bailey : 11/30/2005 12:23:34 PM

S&P Bank Index (BIX.X) 363.38 -1.43% Link ... sharply lower.

MEL $33.62 -2.09%, USB $30.28 -2.03%, HBAN $23.94 -1.97%, KEY $33.00 -1.72%

Jeff Bailey : 11/30/2005 12:17:17 PM

12:00 Internals found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 11/30/2005 12:17:07 PM

The SPX, OEX and TRAN have now dropped into a test of the 30-minute 100/130-ema's, with those even more important than the 15-minute versions. The TRAN has been bouncing from these averages since late October, as have the OEX and SPX. Unless there's going to be a cascading fall, which I don't yet rule out but don't yet see evidence of occurring other than in a certain heaviness in the markets, this level should create a neutral (choppy) to bullish short-term tone. That covered all the bases, didn't it? I'm just saying these are important levels, and they should produce at least a bounce attempt. However, markets feel a little heavy today, not able to rise much even when the advdec line climbs. They may be on hold until after the 2:00 release when they could become more buoyant or even more leaden, and it's a dangerous point for both bulls and bears.

Jonathan Levinson : 11/30/2005 12:16:10 PM

QQQQ returns to the pennant apex. Link It seems lately that more pennant breaks tend to reverse than to follow through, and the doctrine has always held these to be "continuation" patterns.

Linda Piazza : 11/30/2005 12:10:06 PM

The TRAN tests Friday's low, with today's low just a little above that low of 4116.20. The TRAN's low today has been 4118.07, not much of a difference for the TRAN. There is so far marked bullish divergence on the 15-minute chart, but it's tentative as yet. The TRAN is poised to give way, confirming a bigger H&S, which still appears viable despite my impression yesterday that it wouldn't be unless it was confirmed early this morning, or to soar higher and invalidate the thing, and I think that either might have an impact on other equities.

Jonathan Levinson : 11/30/2005 12:09:38 PM

That's an inflation/deflation debate, and I suspect that for the long term, it won't be market forces that decide it. Greenspan has warned (and warned and warned) of the danger posed by the confluence of growing deficits and the imminent retirement of the boomers. These are huge macro forces. On the other side, there's the Fed's and the foreign central banks' ability to try to fight deflation by printing (devaluing) money. I don't believe that the answer to that dilemma can be found in today's price charts, but it remains those charts that will give us the heads up as it unfolds.

Jeff Bailey : 11/30/2005 12:04:58 PM

12:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 11/30/2005 12:03:21 PM

This pause near our automatic exit demonstrates why I wanted that automatic exit. I think it's possible that the OEX could continue lower, perhaps much lower, but the OEX is still within a broadening formation, with any trade within such a formation a risky one, still trying to make its way through a long-term S/R band, still having the 10-sma's support below and having bounced from each test of that MA since late October. There have to be dip buyers waiting for their next chance at that 10-sma, now at 577.08. They could get overwhelmed with supply, and I think that's at least a reasonable possibility, but this setup wasn't premier and I think we're lucky to have scalped anything out of today's market. I'll look for another play setup and tell you if I see it, but I'm for one still expecting some chop today.

Jonathan Levinson : 11/30/2005 12:03:13 PM

The daily cycle suggests that we've seen the high for this run, with a downphase due for 2-4 weeks if it completes its rollover. A bounce (such as the 30/60 min cycles are looking for) could retest or nominally exceed the last 60 min cycle high within that toppy daily cycle, but a break above it would be a trending move within the daily cycle. This is a tricky spot, and has been this week because all of the intraday cycles have been failing early. Link

Linda Piazza : 11/30/2005 11:59:20 AM

OEX 15-minute Keltner picture: The OEX is currently testing 15-minute Keltner support at 577.64 on a 15-minute closing basis, but that support has begun to slant down so strongly that it's not clear that it can hold. The daily S1 is at 577.70, according to QCharts, so it may lend its support. If there's a bounce, first resistance is at 578.97 on a 15-minute closing basis.

Linda Piazza : 11/30/2005 11:55:38 AM

The OEX is hovering around our exit level, showing the importance of the 577-577.77 level as potential support. The three-minute advdec line chart--that time interval being fairly good at predicting movements today, shows that the advdec line is approaching overdone levels to the downdie, but I'm not so sure the downside is done just yet. I'm thinking that the -107 to +375 level might get tested.

Jonathan Levinson : 11/30/2005 11:53:57 AM

Volume breadth drops to +1.1:1 on the NYSE, +1.6:1 on the Nasdaq.

Linda Piazza : 11/30/2005 11:52:37 AM

The TRAN is dropping strongly, but dropping toward Friday's 4116.20 low and the neckline of its H&S, somewhere around the 4100 level, although the formation is so rough that it's difficult to pinpoint exactly where that neckline might be. TRAN at 4119.00 as I type, testing Keltner support on the 15-minute chart.

Jonathan Levinson : 11/30/2005 11:50:06 AM

Session low for QQQQ, below yesterday's low. 30 and 60 min channel support are lined up at 41.17 here, but a failure to bounce immediately will see those channels resume yesterday's decline, whipsawing their young upturns from this AM. Link

Linda Piazza : 11/30/2005 11:48:23 AM

OEX/SPX Option Trade Exit Point Alert
Automatic profit target of 577.80 was just reached, so the position is closed. Entry was at 579.09, so there was a 1.29-point OEX move in the play's direction. Some may have elected to keep a partial position open. Be careful as the OEX tests its 10-sma, if so. Play officially closed.

Jane Fox : 11/30/2005 11:46:06 AM

Remember I said I thought the bullishness was tentative. These two show just tentative that bullishness really was. All bullish bets are off the table now but not time for bearishness yet. Link

Jeff Bailey : 11/30/2005 11:45:50 AM

SPX Link ... 1,400 , 1,400, 1,400. By March?

Jonathan Levinson : 11/30/2005 11:45:06 AM

QQQQ loses rising intraday support, rolling the short cycle indicators from well below overbought territory: Link

Linda Piazza : 11/30/2005 11:43:42 AM

OEX/SPX Option Trade Exit Point Alert
Automatic profit target of 577.80 approaching. I'm going to retain that profit target, closing the position, as this market is too risky and the setup too iffy to stay in longer. However, some might elect to take partial profits and lower stops in case the OEX crashes through that support.

Jonathan Levinson : 11/30/2005 11:43:20 AM

Headlines:

11:42am GERMANY'S DAX INDEX DOWN 0.1% AT 5,193 AS TRADE ENDS

11:42am FRANCE'S CAC 40 FALLS 0.3% TO 4,574

11:42am U.K.'S FTSE 100 SHEDS 1.2% TO 5,423 AT FINISH

Linda Piazza : 11/30/2005 11:41:09 AM

OEX/SPX Option Trade Exit Point Alert
The OEX tests this morning's low as the advdec line tests support. It looks possible that the advdec line could bounce here, so exit if you're worried. Setup looks okay so far, but we've seen this before, and it didn't turn out okay. I'm keeping the play open.

Jeff Bailey : 11/30/2005 11:42:33 AM

SPX and SPY Most Active Options at this Link ... per Jonathan's 11:19:34 post.

There was a correlative trade at 11:05 AM EDT in the SPX Mar 1,400 Calls (SXZ-CT) at $1.00, which sent that option to the top of the SPX most active.

Jonathan Levinson : 11/30/2005 11:37:55 AM

Session low for ten year notes, -7/64 at 108 25/32, TNX +1.2 bps at 4.494%.

Linda Piazza : 11/30/2005 11:36:08 AM

Bears need to see the OEX fall sharply below this morning's 578.40 low and stay below it.

Jonathan Levinson : 11/30/2005 11:33:41 AM

QQQQ update at this Link , hugging the sideways 72 SMA as price drifts sideways. This is still within a potential 30/60 min channel upturn, with the intraday channels moderating their decline from yesterday.

Linda Piazza : 11/30/2005 11:32:59 AM

OEX/SPX Option Trade Signals
OEX still below the 15-minute 100-ema and the weekly and daily pivots. Advdec line testing 15-minute resistance, but it's still holding so far. Here's a dangerous point, and the play may get closed if the danger materializes.

Jane Fox : 11/30/2005 11:27:37 AM

TICKS +800

Linda Piazza : 11/30/2005 11:24:57 AM

OEX/SPX Option Trade Entry Point Alert
OEX bearish options entry at OEX 579.09. Stop 580.75. Automatic profit 577.80, although I might change both the stop and the profit target. Aggressive and risky play.

Linda Piazza : 11/30/2005 11:23:34 AM

OEX/SPX Option Trade Entry Point Alert
Enter a bearish options play. Stop 580.75. Automatic profit at 577.80, if touched. This is a dangerous play because the setup so far comes only through the 10-minute advdec line chart, because the OEX has been coiling so long, because of the Beige Book release still due, and because of the support band just below.

Jeff Bailey : 11/30/2005 11:23:56 AM

Research in Motion (RIMM) $65.25 +0.50% Link ... Stock has been halted with news pending. Speculation is that the maker of the popular BlackBerry may announce settlement with NTP.

NTP co-founder saying just now that no deal has been struck.

Earlier today, RIMM announced that Telefonica Moviles will launch RIMM's BlackBerry wireless e-mail device in 13 Latin American countries starting in early 2006.

Jonathan Levinson : 11/30/2005 11:19:34 AM

A steep drop in the realtime CBOE total put to call ratio, down .49 to .58 here.

Jonathan Levinson : 11/30/2005 11:18:56 AM

Session high for crude oil, +.325 at 56.80.

Jeff Bailey : 11/30/2005 11:16:53 AM

11:00 Internals found at this Link

Yesterday's Internals found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 11/30/2005 11:13:34 AM

I still think it possible that the OEX will see 577-577.70. The trouble is that the 15-minute advdec line chart makes it look just as possible that it will rise as drop, likely sending the OEX in the direction it goes. No signal at all on that chart, not even close to one. Perhaps that's appropriate, as the OEX is just chopping around those 15-minute 100/130-ema's. What is different this time than in recent times, is that the OEX is not benefiting when the advdec line climbs, or benefiting only minimally. Now seeing tentative bearish divergence all the way up through the 10-minute advdec line. It can still be erased, however.

If this keeps up, the first setup I will see will be a bearish one, which would be a scary trade to take with the 10-sma just below. Many of you will be aware of the weekly and daily pivots (QCharts values, anyway) just above the 15-minute 100-ema, with those at 580.50 and 580.31. It's interesting that other factors showed me 577.70 as a possible support level and it shows up on QCharts as daily S1, too. That's one reason I don't always check the pivots, because they invariable show me information I already knew about where support or resistance might lie.

Jonathan Levinson : 11/30/2005 11:11:57 AM

Volume breadth is up to +3.2:1 on the Nasdaq, despite what feels like heavy action in the short cycle upphase so far. It may indicate heavier accumulation in the low end of yesterday's range, or it may be a divergence- tough to read.

Tab Gilles : 11/30/2005 11:06:14 AM

Dell (DELL) Link

Linda Piazza : 11/30/2005 11:05:58 AM

VIX just retested the 15-minute 100/130-ema's and is bouncing from that test. It's a tentative bounce so far.

Jeff Bailey : 11/30/2005 11:03:59 AM

11:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 11/30/2005 11:03:11 AM

Tentative value/RSI bearish divergences on the advdec line are now showing up all the way up through the 7-minute chart, with the three-minute and 7-minute being charts I like to watch for early clues. Here's a 7-minute, showing why I watch it, too. Link

Jeff Bailey : 11/30/2005 11:00:56 AM

It looks like refiners have really started to crank up their refining of Distillates, which diesel and jet fuel are comprised. With the winter driving season (lower demand) and greater focuse on distillate refining, gasoline finds a draw.

Linda Piazza : 11/30/2005 10:56:52 AM

The OEX isn't benefiting much from that little burst higher in the advdec line. It still can't produce 15-minute closes above the 15-minute 100/130-ema's.

Linda Piazza : 11/30/2005 10:55:39 AM

The OEX's 10-sma is at 577.19 currently. If in bearish positions, decide ahead of time how you'll deal with that level, if tested. I see that despite giving a tentative bearish signal on the three-minute chart, the advdec line climbs again, so it's possible that level won't be tested immediately, if at all. This is why I don't trade on three-minute advdec line signals, although they can be used to fine-tune an entry or exit.

Jonathan Levinson : 11/30/2005 10:54:36 AM

Stepping away to reboot.

Jane Fox : 11/30/2005 10:54:19 AM

TICKS +800

Jeff Bailey : 11/30/2005 10:51:53 AM

EIA Weekly Crude Oil, Gasoline, Distillate, Diesel, Jet Fuel Inventory Table found at this Link ... In yellow, I've benchmarked my currently unfortunate bearish put trade in AMR $17.08 +0.35%, which has surged from the $10.82 level.

Linda Piazza : 11/30/2005 10:51:32 AM

The advdec line's three-minute chart again gives a bearish signal, although perhaps not as strong as the earlier one, since there's no value/RSI divergence, but instead just Keltner-style bearish divergence. There's no signal of any kind on the 15-minute chart, however, with RSI chopping around near the neutral level.

Jonathan Levinson : 11/30/2005 10:50:18 AM

QQQQ holds 41.39, the short cycle upphase getting no traction since the oil report. This could be the "weightless" chop within the turning 30 and 60 min cycle oscillators, but for that to be valid, any dip from here must stop no lower than the session low, and preferably above it. The 30 and 60 min channels have yet to turn up, with QQQQ's foray above 72 SMA support at 41.44 (now down to 41.41) so-far short-lived. Link

Linda Piazza : 11/30/2005 10:47:25 AM

The advdec line's 15-minute chart, the one I prefer to watch for signals, isn't signaling a thing, perhaps suggesting more chop? It's not close to giving me a signal, either direction.

Jonathan Levinson : 11/30/2005 10:45:15 AM

Ten year note yields flip positive here, +.2 bps at 4.484%.

Linda Piazza : 11/30/2005 10:41:23 AM

SPX, TRAN and OEX still testing those 15-minute 100/130-ema's, coiling along them since yesterday afternoon. The OEX's versions are at 579.98 and 579.31, respectively, with the OEX piercing the 100-ema intra-period, but not closing above it. The OEX is at 579.69 as I type.

Jane Fox : 11/30/2005 10:40:14 AM

These two are back in sync and it is another day of either stay long or stay out. Link

Jeff Bailey : 11/30/2005 10:39:08 AM

EIA Weekly Gross Inputs, Operable Capacity and Percent Utilization Table found at this Link ... 89.3% of nation's refinery capacity currently utilized.

Jane Fox : 11/30/2005 10:38:43 AM

TICKS +1000 so much for a pull back today.

Linda Piazza : 11/30/2005 10:37:57 AM

The OEX coils and 15-minute RSI does, too. The advdec line zooms from one side of an intraday broadening formation to another, with 15-minute RSI coiling on that chart, too, and not giving any trade setups.

Jonathan Levinson : 11/30/2005 10:36:29 AM

Volume breadth is up to +1.5:1 on the NYSE, +2.05:1 on the Nasdaq.

Linda Piazza : 11/30/2005 10:35:58 AM

The advdec line approaches resistance again, at 1425 and then again at 1750. The 1750 level is the Keltner line that stopped the advdec line earlier. It would be bearish if the currently being tested lower line should stop it this time, but even the advdec line has a broadening formation now and it's zooming from one side to the other. Advdec line at 1308 as I type, down from a just-reached 1390 three-minute swing high.

Linda Piazza : 11/30/2005 10:33:13 AM

The OEX still has difficulty with the 15-minute 100-ema at 579.98. It's piercing it during the 15-minute periods, but not able to close above it. OEX at 579.68 as I type.

Jonathan Levinson : 11/30/2005 10:32:02 AM

Headlines:

U.S. DISTILLATE STKS UP 3.4 MLN BRLS: ENERGY DEPT

U.S. GASOLINE STKS DOWN 500,000 BRLS: ENERGY DEPT

U.S. CRUDE STKS DOWN 4.2 MLN BRLS LAST WK: ENERGY DEPT

Jonathan Levinson : 11/30/2005 10:31:36 AM

QQQQ pulling back from a 41.49 high to test 72 SMA support: Link

Jeff Bailey : 11/30/2005 10:31:12 AM

QQQQ Option Chains found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 11/30/2005 10:30:48 AM

Crude oil +.20 at 56.70.

Tab Gilles : 11/30/2005 10:32:13 AM

EIA OIL DATA Crude down 4.2M bbl

Jane Fox : 11/30/2005 10:30:32 AM

Ad volume making new daily highs while the AD line is +1000 is a different story from AD volume making new daily highs while the AD line is a paltry +200. The former is very bullish while the later is bullish but only so so. Right now the AD volume is making new daily highs while the AD line is +603 so we have the bulls in control but I am still looking at it as choppy until I see the AD line make a new daily high as well.

Jonathan Levinson : 11/30/2005 10:30:10 AM

From the EIA website:

U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) dropped by 4.2 million barrels from the previous week. However, at 317.6 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories remain well above the upper end of the average range for this time of year. Total motor gasoline inventories inched lower by 0.5 million barrels last week, putting them near the lower end of the average range. Distillate fuel inventories jumped by 3.4 million barrels last week, but are in the lower half of the average range for this time of year. Increases were seen in both high-sulfur (heating oil) and low-sulfur (diesel fuel) distillate fuel inventories. Total commercial petroleum inventories rose by 2.2 million barrels last week, and are near the upper end of the average range for this time of year.

Linda Piazza : 11/30/2005 10:28:05 AM

The OEX's next resistance is 580.43 on a five-minute close, and it's turning down from that as I type.

Jane Fox : 11/30/2005 10:25:06 AM

If you follow the AD volume you can get a pretty good idea as to bullishness or bearishness. AD volume is now making new daily highs - again so the bulls are back in control.

Linda Piazza : 11/30/2005 10:24:29 AM

On the advdec line's 15-minute chart, RSI chops around in the neutral area. I'm not going to get a good signal from such action.

Jonathan Levinson : 11/30/2005 10:24:18 AM

QQQQ breaks 72 SMA resistance on the move above 41.44, testing confluence at 41.47-.50. Link

Jane Fox : 11/30/2005 10:22:39 AM

Buyers are back again +800. Did I mention that I though we going to see chop?

Linda Piazza : 11/30/2005 10:21:24 AM

Stepping away.

Jeff Bailey : 11/30/2005 10:19:42 AM

QQQQ $41.39 +0.12% ...

Linda Piazza : 11/30/2005 10:19:24 AM

For those of you chastising yourselves for not entering a bearish play today (or chastising me, perhaps), it's not a weakness to stay out of the market when signals are mixed. It's a sign of a progression in your trading skills when you recognize the mixed signals and stay out, knowing that a better trade will come along. I am not sure that the OEX will give us that better trade setup today, however, with indicators so mixed as I type.

Jeff Bailey : 11/30/2005 10:19:17 AM

SOX.X 478.09 +0.48% ... the NYSE said it was having some computerized trading problems this morning. Now getting a feed at DAILY Pivot.

Jonathan Levinson : 11/30/2005 10:17:43 AM

Headline:

10:16am CHICAGO PMI PRICES PAID JUMPED TO 94.1 VS. 79.6

Linda Piazza : 11/30/2005 10:17:07 AM

We're getting the expected bounce in the advdec line, right from where I expected it to come, at the horizontal blue line marked on the chart in my 10:12:36 post. The OEX bounces, too, back up to retest the neckline of the H&S formation it has now confirmed. It's bouncing from 15-minute Keltner support now at 578.20-578.50, and is testing resistance now at 579.53, with the outcome of those tests, on 15-minute closes, not yet known. On a 15-minute Keltner chart basis, these closes beneath that 579.53 Keltner line make it look weaker than it has since the 16th, but the OEX isn't really falling away from that resistance, so hasn't yet clearly broken below it. It's still testing.

Jeff Bailey : 11/30/2005 10:15:21 AM

10:00 Internals found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 11/30/2005 10:12:35 AM

Here's what I was looking at this morning when I said that the three-minute advdec line chart was already showing signs that the movement was overdone to the upside: Link Unfortunately, the evidence on a rollover came on a three-minute chart, and wasn't significant enough for a bearish entry. It did, however, allow me to caution you about bullish entries early this morning, even for a scalp, and that's valuable, too. Kept me and you from being trapped at today's high. Now, watch for a potential bounce. I have the same conundrum I had earlier, though, with the advdec line now at central support on the 15-minute chart, not a good place from which to issue a long signal. I'd like it to be more overdone to the downside.

Jonathan Levinson : 11/30/2005 10:08:52 AM

Volume breadth is down to -1.05:1 on the NYSE, -1.01:1 on the Nasdaq.

Jeff Bailey : 11/30/2005 10:08:51 AM

Bullish swing trade stop alert on the QQQQ $41.28 here.

Jeff Bailey : 11/30/2005 10:08:02 AM

Sell Program Premium ... DIA $108.68, SPX 1,256.37, QQQQ $41.29

Jonathan Levinson : 11/30/2005 10:05:51 AM

Session high for crude oil just printed at 56.625.

Linda Piazza : 11/30/2005 10:05:16 AM

OEX testing the neckline of that H&S on its 15-minute chart, a less-reliable continuation-form H&S, but still useful to watch. It needs to drop below this morning's open to confirm that formation, however, and even then, I wouldn't bet the farm on the 576.90 downside target being met. As I typed, the OEX attempted a rise from the neckline.

Jane Fox : 11/30/2005 10:04:52 AM

AD volume is falling and making a new daily low. AD line is also falling but not yet to a new daily low. The bears are picking up momentum.

Jeff Bailey : 11/30/2005 10:04:05 AM

10:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jane Fox : 11/30/2005 10:03:17 AM

The TICKS made a new daily low on that last sell program but didn't come anywhere near -800.

Jonathan Levinson : 11/30/2005 10:02:27 AM

QQQQ drops to test short cycle channel support. 30min channel support is below at 41.20: Link

Jeff Bailey : 11/30/2005 10:02:27 AM

Sell Program Premium ... DIA $109.01, SPX 1,257.91, QQQQ $41.34

Jane Fox : 11/30/2005 10:01:57 AM

I have been watching the AD volume and AD line for months and when they look like this the pattern tells we have no direction and I can expect chop until they get back into sync. This has been one of the best chop-meters I have found to date. Link

Jonathan Levinson : 11/30/2005 10:01:35 AM

Headline:

NOV. CHICAGO PMI AT 61.7 VS. 62.9 IN OCT., 59.9 EXPECTED

Jonathan Levinson : 11/30/2005 10:01:23 AM

Chicago PMI 61.7 vs. 60 exp.

Linda Piazza : 11/30/2005 10:01:20 AM

It still looks just as likely to me that the OEX will fall toward 577-577.70 as that it will break higher.

Linda Piazza : 11/30/2005 10:00:30 AM

SPX, TRAN, OEX: all are testing their 15-minute 100/130-ema's. The SPX's are at 1260.09 and 1258.57, respectively; the OEX's at 580.00-579.30. The SPX is currently at 1259.60, the OEX, 579.72.

Linda Piazza : 11/30/2005 9:57:55 AM

The TRAN is not doing its usual directional thing this morning but is coiling, it appears. No signal from that indicator index, either.

Jonathan Levinson : 11/30/2005 9:55:09 AM

A 4.25B overnight repo has just been announced, all add.

Jane Fox : 11/30/2005 9:53:28 AM

ER tags its R1, ES is only able to tag its PP and NQ has not even been able to test its PP. Link

Linda Piazza : 11/30/2005 9:53:26 AM

If any of you are seeing it, I'm aware of the H&S formation on the OEX's 15-minute chart, forming since yesterday afternoon, but it's in the midst of congestion, at the bottom of the decline off yesterday's high, and so perhaps not as valid as some. It should still be watched. The neckline is at about 578.95, and the OEX opened just below that level this morning and then climbed, so you'd need to see a low below the day's 478.80 open to confirm that formation. A three-minute close above a Keltner line currently at 580.19 and especially a five-minute close above the one currently at 580.48, would look as if the formation were being invalidated.

Jonathan Levinson : 11/30/2005 9:51:43 AM

Volume has been declining in the Qs this morning, not what a bull wants to see. The Fed announcement and the PMI data could be keeping the big guns on hold, or it could be the petroleum report at 10:30. The intraday cycles still want upside, but so far the price action is less than inspiring. Link

Jane Fox : 11/30/2005 9:50:24 AM

I would not be thinking short until you see some evidence of bearishness creeping in and I don't see any in the internals.

Jeff Bailey : 11/30/2005 9:50:06 AM

Buy Program Premium ... DIA $109.18, SPX 1,256.61, QQQQ $41.39

Linda Piazza : 11/30/2005 9:49:49 AM

Okay, here's the deal. I came into the day ready to play both directions--an early bounce (entry already primed so I could post it quickly) and then exit and play the rollover if that set up. So, I have no preconceived bias against playing the long side or the bearish one. The advdec line is still climbing, but into resistance and showing that it's approaching overdone measures on the three- through five-minute charts but still has the possibility of climbing a bit further on the 10- through 15-minute ones. The three-minute already shows bearish divergence, although it can still be erased.

So, this evidence tentatively supported a long position, although it's already getting iffy. Meanwhile, the TRAN is already turning down sharply from the first Keltner resistance to have been tested, and the OEX's rise felt a little reluctant, too.

Mixed evidence, and no clear signal here. No play from me, and that's because of an absolute decision that I'm not going to call iffy OEX plays while it's inside a broadening formation. Based on what I'm seeing, it looks just a likely that the OEX could rollover soon as that it could continue climbing, and just as likely that it could continue climbing as that it could rollover soon.

Jeff Bailey : 11/30/2005 9:45:53 AM

Semiconductor HOLDRs (SMH) $37.18 +0.21% ... DAILY Pivot Levels for today are $36.58, $36.84, Piv = $37.30, $37.56, $38.02.

QQQQ $41.42 +0.19% ...

Still not getting a data feed for the SOX.X

Jonathan Levinson : 11/30/2005 9:44:34 AM

So far this morning's bounce has been just a wavelet upphase, the short cycle indicators stalling but not yet turning up from just above oversold territory. Bulls need to see this morning's premarket range hold to prevent a downside whipsaw in the so-far fragile upturn: Link

Linda Piazza : 11/30/2005 9:43:58 AM

And there, finally, was the TRAN climb, but right up into that first resistance zone that I told you to watch, and it's currently snapping back from that resistance zone. The TRAN's 15-minute RSI just squiggles near neutral, but remember the potential roughly formed H&S on the TRAN's chart. The formation needs to be confirmed soon this morning, as I mentioned yesterday, or the formation is invalidated. TRAN at 4141.00 as I type.

Jonathan Levinson : 11/30/2005 9:42:17 AM

Ten year note yields have risen to a .6 bp loss at 4.476% as ten year notes weaken from their morning highs.

Linda Piazza : 11/30/2005 9:41:26 AM

The advdec line is climbing, with RSI already showing the first hints that the movement is becoming overdone on the three- and five-minute charts, not yet on the longer-interval ones. The OEX is just not performing well as the advdec line climbs, however, and that's sending a bit of a warning sign despite my thought that there might be a bounce attempt early today. Is this all the bounce attempt that can be mustered? Signals are not right just now, so be careful.

Jane Fox : 11/30/2005 9:39:28 AM

These two are bullish. Link

Linda Piazza : 11/30/2005 9:38:26 AM

The OEX is not zooming past Keltner resistance at 579.54-579.70 on 15-minute closes, but instead tests it, with the OEX at 579.89 as I type and moving up just a little. Next resistance at 580.52-580.87. It's almost squarely in the center of that broadening formation, not a good place from which to initiate new positions of any type, and I need more corroboration than I'm getting for a long play, although I came into the day expecting a bounce. RSI is 48.97, neutral. I didn't have a bias against a bounce, but just need evidence.

Jane Fox : 11/30/2005 9:37:05 AM

The VIX takes a bullish drop to new daily lows.

Jonathan Levinson : 11/30/2005 9:36:55 AM

Don't forget the Chicago PMI at 10AM. The Fed has no repos expiring today, so any adds will be net adds for the day.

Jeff Bailey : 11/30/2005 9:36:43 AM

QQQQ $41.42 +0.19% ... reclaims WEEKLY S1 here.

SOX.X .... I'm not getting a data feed quote this morning.

Linda Piazza : 11/30/2005 9:35:42 AM

The TRAN is isn't doing much just yet, but watch out because it has a history of often zooming one direction or the other pre-inventories numbers.

Jonathan Levinson : 11/30/2005 9:34:50 AM

Volume breadth is +1.8:1 on the NYSE, +2.4:1 on the Nasdaq at the open.

Linda Piazza : 11/30/2005 9:34:49 AM

From the setups I'm seeing, it's just as likely that the OEX will pull back soon as it is that it will zoom soon. No strong evidence either direction, although the advdec line is looking a bit stronger as I type.

Jane Fox : 11/30/2005 9:34:47 AM

The AD volume is above 0 and the AD line is +286 so the bulls have a slight edge this morning but not much.

Jonathan Levinson : 11/30/2005 9:32:40 AM

QQQQ intraday channel and nearby pivots at this Link , 30/60 min channel support at 41.24-.30, 30/60 min channel resistance 41.62-.70. 72 SMA resistance is 41.47.

Linda Piazza : 11/30/2005 9:32:35 AM

I have a long-entry post primed to go, but I'm seeing mixed evidence in the advdec line and OEX, so it's not going to be posted and I can't recommend such a play just yet.

Linda Piazza : 11/30/2005 9:30:46 AM

OEX headed up toward 579.59 first Keltner resistance, on 15-minute closes.

Jeff Bailey : 11/30/2005 9:29:58 AM

QQQQ $41.30 .... DAILY Pivot Levels for today are ... $41.00, $41.17, $41.51, $41.68, $42.02.

Jeff Bailey : 11/30/2005 9:26:48 AM

Program Trading Levels for Wednesday ... HL Camp & Company has their computers set for program buying at $+2.58 and set for program selling at $+0.64.

Linda Piazza : 11/30/2005 9:03:08 AM

Yesterday, I thought it possible that the OEX might be setting up another of its infamous 4-6-point trading ranges, with this one forming above the 577-578.40-ish S/R horizontal band I've had marked on my charts for years. As I've repeated other times lately, the S/R band is really broader than that, but that's the locus of the most opens, closes, highs and lows. I expected a climb and a pullback, both of which occurred, but then thought it likely the OEX might chop around. Instead, the pullback continued and the OEX retraced all of the day's range, plus a little. If yesterday's candle had come at the top of a climb, it would have been a potential bearish reversal signal; at the bottom of a decline, a potential bullish reversal signal. Is it bullish or bearish if it occurs within a building consolidation zone at the top of a climb?

My expectation today is the same as yesterday's, that unless the OEX gaps down this morning, I expect a bounce attempt. I'm not sure whether such a bounce attempt would be playable or not, but we'll see how it sets up. I want to be particularly careful because the OEX is still within what looks to be a downward-sloping broadening formation. The presence of a broadening formation suggests disorganized trading patterns that are not particularly amenable to technical analysis, so anyone trading while with OEX is within that pattern risks being whipsawed out of positions. The broadening formation now spans from about 576.45 on the downside to 583.34 on the upside.

If there is a bounce, we'll then look for a rollover, hoping that the OEX is headed down for a test of the 10-sma. If a bearish entry does present, we're likely going to take automatic profit there or actually a little ahead of that MA unless the OEX just crashes through it. We'll watch some other indicator indices to see if that's likely, with the SOX, TRAN and BIX being among those. Pay special attention to the TRAN as it tests the 4145 zone, if it does, and then again near 4160-4165, looking for rollover potential or for prices to break through to the upside, in which case the TRAN might be headed for a retest of last week's high or even for a higher high between 4235-4275. The RLX has already broken below its 10-sma and the SOX ended on or near its 10-sma.

Jonathan Levinson : 11/30/2005 8:49:55 AM

QQQQ's 30 min cycle has fallen deeper into oversold territory, while the 60 min cycle, which was actually in a weak upphase for most of yesterday, has begun to tick lower, also near the bottom of its range. These are levels from which bounces have tended to occur, and while such a bounce will have what is likely a new daily cycle downphase to deal with, that still leaves the potential for hours of upward bias should they kick off a new upphase. I cannot update my SMA and keltner levels pre-market, but yesterday's 41.47-.50 level should be key confluence resistance above which these longer intraday cycles should turn up.

Jonathan Levinson : 11/30/2005 8:35:20 AM

Chain deflator 3% vs. 3.1% exp., prior unrevised at 3.1%.

Q3 GDP 4.3% vs. 4% exp., prior unrevised at 3.8%

Tab Gilles : 11/30/2005 8:32:15 AM

NASDAQ 100 ($NDX)/ Profund UOPIX position update.

As per 11/23 12:19 AM post. Where I'd been targetiing the 1735 level on the NDX, we'll it appears we came close. But, the 10-ema stop came soooo close yesterday on the NDX. If it is trading below the 10-ema before the close, I'm exiting a 1/2 position on the UOPIX and entering 1/2 position on the Profund Ultra Short USPIX. Also watch the daily and weekly $NASI if they go bearish then exit the remaining UOPIX position and add to USPIX. Link Link Link Link Link Link

Jonathan Levinson : 11/30/2005 8:32:14 AM

QQQQ up to flat at 41.35.

Jonathan Levinson : 11/30/2005 8:31:59 AM

Headlines:

U.S. 2Q REAL DISPOSABLE INCOME REVISED LOWER TO 0.2% VS 1.5%

U.S. 3Q PCE CORE PRICE INDEX UP 1.2% VS. 1.3%

U.S. 3Q PROFITS FALL 3.4% ON HURRICANES IMPACT

Jonathan Levinson : 11/30/2005 8:31:40 AM

Ten year notes hold a 5/32 gain at 108 31/32, TNX down 1 bp at 4.472%.

Jonathan Levinson : 11/30/2005 8:31:04 AM

Headlines:

U.S. 3Q CONSUMER SPENDING UP 4.2% VS. 3.9%

U.S. 3Q BUSINESS INVESTMENT UP 8.8% VS. 6.2%

U.S. GDP UP 3.7% YEAR-ON-YEAR

U.S. 3Q GDP REVISION TO 4.3% BETTER THAN THE 4% EXPECTED

Jonathan Levinson : 11/30/2005 8:30:39 AM

Looks like down from here, Tab.

Tab Gilles : 11/30/2005 8:23:19 AM

Jonathan, in addition to the $TNX candle...look at the TLT chart. Link

Jonathan Levinson : 11/30/2005 7:51:10 AM

Ten year note yields printed a bullish engulfing on the daily chart yesterday, reversing all of last week's losses. With the daily cycle in potential bottom territory, this could be the start of the next leg higher for the TNX. A close above 4.5% should be sufficient to generate the first buy signals on the daily cycle oscillators: Link

Jonathan Levinson : 11/30/2005 7:34:35 AM

Note that the Comex increased the margin requirements on silver and copper yesterday, and made changes to the margin requirements by tier today for natural gas. Read all about it at this Link

Linda Piazza : 11/30/2005 7:31:09 AM

Good morning. After reaching above 15,000 early in the overnight session, the Nikkei saw profit-taking late in the session that closed it in negative territory. Other Asian markets were mixed, but European markets turn lower, pressured by commodity-related stocks and oil majors. As of 7:19 EST, gold was lower by $4.50, to $494.60, and crude, lower by $0.21 to $46.29. Our futures were modestly lower at the time. More details about Asian and European markets follows in succeeding paragraphs.

Last night, the Nikkei, perhaps responding to an encouraging OECD report, gapped higher at its open. It climbed up to exceed 15,000 and reach another high not seen since December 2000, with one report saying that foreign buying helped drive it up to that level. Then, the Nikkei coiled until late afternoon, when prices plunged into the day's low. The Nikkei closed lower by 55.55 points or 0.37%, at 14,872.15.

Near or before the open, an economic release showed that Japan's November JMMA PMI rose to 55.3, up from October's 54.7. Domestic demand drove manufacturing activity to its fastest expansion in a year and a half. New orders and the output index rose, but the export orders index slipped slightly lower. In another release, October's overtime pay eased 0.1% year over year, the first decrease after 38 months of gains. During the day, some Bank of Japan members spoke about the bank's intention to expand rates soon after the CPI began rising on a year-over-year basis, which would probably occur in the next few months. One said that policy could be changed at a moderate pace.

A Reuters survey revealed that Japanese institutional investors increased stock allocations in their portfolios in November, although equity weighting for North American issues eased to 46.5% from the previous 46.6%. The weighting of U.S. bonds also eased, to 35.6% from the previous 35.9%. In yet-another release, October's housing starts beat expectations, rising 9.1% year over year, far above the expected 3.6%.

In earliest trading, issues related to the manufacture of chemicals rose after Showa Denko KK announced plans to build a new hard-disk plant to satisfy increasing demand. Profit-taking in techs, financials and steel stocks occurred during the late-afternoon downdraft, with Shinsea Bank due to report after the bell. That report showed a decline of 7.6% in first-half profit due to costs incurred when acquiring a consumer-lending firm. The bank reiterated its full-year forecast.

Other Asian markets were mixed. The Taiwan Weighted gained 1.04%, and South Korea's Kospi rose 1.41%. The U.S.'s AIG may sell its position in Taiwan's Far Eastern Air Transport Corp. so that it can focus on investments in China. Singapore's Straits Times eased 0.11%, and Hong Kong's Hang Seng dropped 0.61%. The IPO for China's third-biggest automaker, Dongfeng Motor Group Co., priced in the middle of its range. The WSJ speculates that when the Chinese premier visits France this weekend, an order will be placed for Airbus A320 jetliners, although the number is not known. In other news, there is speculation that the U.S.'s AMD may take a position in a proposed chip-manufacturing factory in China. China's Shanghai Composite rose 0.21%.

European markets decline this morning ahead of tomorrow's ECB rate decision, with oil majors contributing to the weakness and with many economic releases to be considered. An ECB member spoke out today about a lifting of rates to 2.25%, fitting the expectations that Trichet has lately been building into the markets of a modest rate hike. The ECB member speaking today characterized the ECB's attitude toward rate hikes as less aggressive than the FOMC's. Germany's retail sales rose 1.9% month over month, but fell 0.8% year over year, and the month-over-month gain may be due to the previous month's sharp decline. France's consumer confidence for October fell to -33 with the riots influencing the data and their effect unlikely to continue, if other data is considered. In a separate release, October's unemployment fell to 9.7%, a low for 2005. The Eurozone's revised third-quarter GDP showed a 0.6% quarter-over-quarter growth, higher than the second quarter's 0.3%. Yearly, growth increased 1.5% from the previous quarter's 1.1%. In a separate release, a Eurozone September sentiment indicator improved more than expected, with the headline number rising to 100.5. Business confidence surveys in November have shown a softening, however, so markets may be discounting that September number. The UK's November consumer confidence index was unchanged at -8 while some had hoped to see a slightly improvement to -6. Underneath the headline number, the major purchases climate indicator improved to +5 from +2.

In the U.K., oil- and gas-related stocks and miners tended to be lower. The FTSE 100's lone tech stock, software maker SAGE, dropped after its earning announcement although it appeared to beat profit and revenue expectations. Much attention was on the Daily Mail & General Trust's decision to put its regional newspaper operation up for sale. In Europe resource-related stocks tended to be lower, too, but the Anglo-Dutch Corus Group rose after the steelmaker beat earnings expectations. Another European gainer was TDC, a Danish telecommunications carrier, gaining after it received a private-equity buyout bid. European pharmaceuticals tended to be weak. Broker action resulted in J.P. Morgan cutting its rating of insurer Royal & Sun Alliance on valuation concerns and CSFB cutting caterer Compass Group PLC and lowering its price target.

As of 7:17 EST, the FTSE 100 was lower by 36.10 points or 0.66%, to 5,454.90. The CAC 40 was lower by 24.01 points or 0.52%, to 4,564.72. The DAX was lower by 12.56 points or 0.24%, to 5,186.92.

Jonathan Levinson : 11/30/2005 7:28:31 AM

From the Mortgage Bankers Assoc. website:

WASHINGTON, D.C. (November 30, 2005) -The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) today released its Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending November 25. The Market Composite Index - a measure of mortgage loan application volume - was 624.1 a decrease of 1.8 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from 635.4, one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 33.2 percent compared with the previous week but was down 8.0 percent compared with the same week one year earlier. The seasonally-adjusted indexes include an additional adjustment to account for the Thanksgiving holiday.

The seasonally-adjusted Purchase Index increased by 0.8 percent to 476.2 from 472.3 the previous week whereas the Refinance Index decreased by 6.3 percent to 1484.3 from 1584.1 one week earlier. Other seasonally adjusted index activity includes the Conventional Index, which decreased 2.1 percent to 933.8 from 953.4 the previous week, and the Government Index, which increased 2.2 percent to 106.9 from 104.6 the previous week.

The four week moving average for the seasonally-adjusted Market Index is down 0.9 percent to 644.6 from 650.3. The four week moving average is up 2.1 percent to 473.0 from 463.4 for the Purchase Index while this average is down 5.4 percent to 1642.4 from 1737.0 for the Refinance Index.

The refinance share of mortgage activity decreased to 39.1 percent of total applications from 39.9 percent the previous week. The adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) share of activity decreased to 33.0 percent of total applications from 33.2 percent the previous week.

Jonathan Levinson : 11/30/2005 7:27:20 AM

Equities are down, ES trading 1258.25, NQ 1678, YM 10898 and QQQQ -.04 to 41.30. Gold is down 5.60 to 493.30, silver is down .117 to 8.18, ten year notes are up 7/64 to 109, crude oil is down .125 to 56.375 and natgas is up .265 to 12.

We await the 8:30 releases of Q3 GDP, est. 4%, the Chain Deflator, est. 3.1%, then at 10AM the Chicago PMI, at 10:30 the Petroleum Report, and at 2PM, the Beige Book.

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