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Jeff Bailey : 12/2/2005 1:14:08 AM

There was only one program trading premium generated on Thursday. It came at 09:46 AM EST and had the SPX trading a new intra-day high of 1,259.78.

Jeff Bailey : 12/2/2005 1:02:57 AM

SPY / SPX Options Chain at 12/01/05 Close (OI as of 11/30/05) found at this Link

Now the SPY / SPX Options Chain posted last night 11/30/05 ( OI 11/29/05) found at this Link

For 11/30/05, the SPY Jan $128 Call was the most active at 11,736 and dn/upTickVol was slightly to the dn side. Today, bugger trades just 722 with dn 23 and up 44. Say 1 : 2.

Oh ... for the SPY dn/up volume, I was just capturing the above screen at 12:00:00 AM EST and its measures were erased as clock reset. I going from snapshot "memory" here, but I saw that dn vs. up was not reflective of what today's price action was. I think it was 18 dn vs. 14 up. Almost like the SPY was net shorted on the day.

What I really wanted to check in on was the 11/30/05 action and that day's 10,040 volume, yet evenly matched 2,297 dn vs. 2,226 up in the SPX Dec. 1,250 Puts (SZP-XJ). Found some action action today, but OI up just a bit.

Hmmm ... today, similar 10,366 volume in the SPX Dec 1,260 Puts (SZP-XL). Thinking out loud ... "is somebody trying to get a peg at 1,255, or get squared up at that level?"

SPX Dec 1,225 call/put ... The cat coughed up the furball in the 1,225 puts is a thought.

The 1,225 call allllllll traded pretty much between 13:25 PM and 13:45 PM at $42.50. 1,225 + 42.50 = 1,267.50.

Jeff Bailey : 12/2/2005 12:02:04 AM

QQQQ Options Chain found at this Link ... Also noting that the QQQQ Jan $42 Put (QQQ-MP) did trade $0.80, my profiled stop in today's action.

I will have to officially drop this trade and record the loss for my MM profiles. I find that I did not get filled (this I have a hard stop on) and would like to leave this option in my MM profile updates, until it trades $0.75. There were several thousand option contracts that did trade the bid of $0.80, it wasn't just a few.

Again ... Swing trade put stop alert for the QQQQ Jan. $42 Put (QQQMP) at $0.80. (

Jeff Bailey : 12/1/2005 10:00:51 PM

Closing Internals found at this Link ... Earlier today (01:34:53) I showed some current, then historical (back to late July/August internals) where those dates are correlative to what I showed in last night's MM and QQQQ with new MONTHLY Pivot Levels, and last several months MONTHLY Pivot levels.

Posted a PnF style NYSE NH/NL ratio chart at 11:38:49 AM. At today's close, a chartist would NOT post a new five day entry as we don't have a reading of 66.00% or better, or a 3-box reversal lower to 58.00%. We do chart 3 new X (demand) up to 62.00%. For time referance, and the month of December, we place the letter C at 58.00%. Like this Link

OI Technical Staff : 12/1/2005 9:59:59 PM

The Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

Disclaimer: Stocks discussed in the Market Monitor are for educational purposes only and any analysis is not meant to imply a recommendation for or against that stock. The analysts in this forum as on any other website are prohibited by the SEC from giving any specific advice to ANY individual trader. All information posted is for ALL readers and is not meant to be directed to any individual. Our analysts cannot answer any email questions regarding any specific stock. Please do not ask and please do not take offense if requests are denied.

Results posted in the Market Monitor are hypothetical and OIN does not claim that any reader achieved these exact results. Due to the lag time between research, writing, posting, uploading, reading and execution there will be differences between the actual signal given and the fill achieved by the reader. Fills may be better or worse but in most cases they will be different. The writers will make every effort to give advance notice of intended signals and indicate potential price targets. Your individual results may vary depending on your activity level and aggressiveness. This forum is intended as an education service only. Trading involves risk and should not be attempted by anyone not ready to accept this risk. By acting on any signal in this forum you agree and personally accept this risk.

Jeff Bailey : 12/1/2005 9:31:46 PM

Linda! ... I'm just looking through some of today's MM posts. I couldn't see anything from the net today (I could send stuff out, but couldn't receive). Thanks for some of the updates on AMD though.

I don't place "hard stops" on my trades when I know I'm going to be around to watch things. However, I didn't anticipate not having a two-way internet connection today. I felt like a trader back before online trading. I couldn't believe I was calling a person to make a trade/place a stop.

I "knew" it was a low odd that I wouldn't get stopped in my personal account (MM profiled should have been stopped on the morning's gap higher) when at MM post 10:23:44, when I saw the QQQQ had broken back above weekly pivot, that most stocks, especially those anywhere close to a recent 52-week high would find few sellers. Note: More times than not, when a security trades an S1, then reversed back through the PIVOT, and the Pivot doesn't hold, the trend day unfolds.

For a bear, it is a BRUTAL MARKET to try and sell right now. Everyone wants to "get the top," but with all the bad news that the markets have been swamped by in recent months, just a little "good news" for a market that knows all, just begets further short covering and some new longs coming in.

No... there's plenty of institutional money that has been sitting things out, and CNBC can't go a day without telling us that the "retail investor" left this summer. Yet the end of the year is approaching quicker than a bear can enter a day trade short, place the stop, and have it triggered.

Today, well... we've seen it, better yet, felt it before. From the short side, AMD as a prime expample, you see the major market index, then the sector index inflicting pain on an bear with claws left, and you're counting on that "level" (today's DAILY R2 for AMD) to hold. But deep down, yes deep down, you know the market and the sector's strength and trade within the pivots simply too much.

Short some GG yesterday? Oh the pain, oh the pain.

Jeff Bailey : 12/1/2005 7:55:48 PM

Closing U.S. Market Watch found at this Link ... Cyclical bear market? Folks... the NYSE Composite closed at an all-time high today. Link

Tab Gilles : 12/1/2005 7:15:17 PM

NASDAQ100 ($NDX / Profund USPIX & UOPIX Update to 12/1/05 12:42 AM post.

As I stated in the previous post- The NASI has not reverse and it still was in bull mode. I was hedging trying to catch a pullback consolidation similar to June/July '05. We'll it didn't pan out. Link

So what to do? I could of made 3.7% more today on the 1/2 position UOPIX sale. (Thankyou Jeff for the nice words). But, like I stated...I wanted to hedge my position, so if it pullback I would sell USPIX and buy back into UOPIX. But it appears now that we maybe seeing a similar move to that of Aug '04/Feb '05. If this is to occur, then I'll most likely sell the remaining UOPIX and add to my USPIX short position. At least that's my strategy for now. Link

Profund Ultrashort OTC (USPIX) Link

Watching $NAHL +200 level as a sell signal, just as -200 was a key buy level. Link

$NDX 5 year weekly chart 1735 remains key resistance as I mentioned back on 11/23 12:19 AM post. Link

Linda Piazza : 12/1/2005 4:16:45 PM

I just received an email from a reader--I didn't receive the name, sorry--asking if I was taking the loss at the close. Unfortunately, the way our email is routed these days, we don't always receive it in a timely manner. I'm answering this email the moment I received it, and it's obviously too late to benefit the reader, as it arrived after and not before the close. I'm sorry, but that's out of my control. I always reply quickly when I receive an email.

The short answer is that the play was closed early today, so the loss was taken then, with an exit at 12:47:38, when the OEX was at 580.18. At that time, I mentioned some parameters for those who wanted to stay in a bearish play, but those weren't ever met. So the longer answer is that the wisest thing to do was to exit the position. The even longer answer is that the OEX's test of the broadening formation's upper boundary and Keltner resistance that usually holds would have made a decent bearish entry on its own if the markets hadn't shown such underpinning today. It would have been a place at which I would have suggested a bearish position if there hadn't been that underpinning and if there hadn't been important numbers tomorrow morning. There was that underpinning and there are those numbers tomorrow morning, however, and that could change everything. There was just too much risk to "hope" the resistance held tomorrow morning. I think there's a halfway decent chance that it will hold, but I'd be quick to exit tomorrow morning if it doesn't. Here's the broadening formation, with a chart you'll see again tomorrow morning: Link

Linda Piazza : 12/1/2005 4:02:23 PM

OEX/SPX Option Trade Signals
Bearish entry made at OEX 578.70. Stopped at 580.18 for a 1.48-point loss against the position.

After a day like today, you look back in retrospect and think why wasn't I long all day, but I know why. The advdec line showed danger in that after the first of the day. If we'd gone long at the open, we'd have been okay and could have just kept moving our stops up, but after that, it looked too dangerous, and I had been afraid of a pop-and-drop day.

Linda Piazza : 12/1/2005 3:58:03 PM

End-of-day decisions: markets are poised at make-or-break levels into the close. You have a difficult decision to make, whether in bullish or bearish positions. All day, bearish plays have been setting up, but none have been fruitful, and I'm just glad I didn't pull you into any more than that single one. There's been an underpinning to the market. Will it remain tomorrow? I don't know. That depends both on the numbers and the markets' interpretation of them.

I've said it all afternoon, but if you're in bullish positions, you might consider taking at least partial profits. I'm as frustrated and "weirded out," as my daughters used to say, as some other commentators by the failure of technical analysis to work right now, and I don't have any pearls of wisdom to impart about what will happen tomorrow. I do know that the SOX tests long-time resistance, as the BKX did this week (thanks, Lynne) and as the TRAN did last week. All except for the SOX have pulled back, although the SOX hasn't pulled back far enough to preclude another push upward.

That push could come. I don't suggest that it can't, but only that the TRAN produced a doji last week and so far this week turns slightly lower.

If you close a position, you're risking that the market will move your direction tomorrow and you'll be doing the woulda/shoulda/coulda shuffle. Make your decision and act on it.

Jonathan Levinson : 12/1/2005 3:51:15 PM

QQQQ daily chart updated at this Link . Volume was heavier today, but still looks to just meet or slightly exceed the 89.5M average (85.8M traded so far). The sell signals printing this week are stalling out and on the verge of a whipsaw, but so far it's just a retest of the highs within a probable daily cycle top.

Linda Piazza : 12/1/2005 3:44:58 PM

The TRAN just dropped almost to that 4151.32 support level that's been holding all day, hitting a 4151.72 low a few minutes ago, and bouncing now to 4154.73. It's still in its consolidation zone.

Linda Piazza : 12/1/2005 3:43:40 PM

Advdec line dropping, not significantly yet, but more strongly than it has since earlier this morning. It's right at next support, however, just above 3200, and it's this support line that bounced it early this morning. Advdec line at 3227 as I type, QCharts value.

Jonathan Levinson : 12/1/2005 3:40:39 PM




Linda Piazza : 12/1/2005 3:40:24 PM

And the advdec line still finding resistance, still producing bearish divergences. For the first time today, it's now finding resistance at a five-minute Keltner level at 3403 on five-minute closes. Usually when the advdec line does this, it's beginning to show some flagging strength, but I wouldn't count on it this afternoon with some trapped bears wanting desperately to get out before tomorrow's numbers. We'll get market-on-close orders--wish Jim was still telling us how they looked--in a minute or so, and should see something about the bias. If the institutions aren't bailing, however, the shorts could drive it up into the close.

Jonathan Levinson : 12/1/2005 3:36:28 PM



Linda Piazza : 12/1/2005 3:35:55 PM

Mark mentioned the crowd having 11,000 printed on the inside of their eyeballs. I think they also had TRAN 4000 and SOX 500 (made it today) along with some other numbers. I've noticed something during the rally off the October lows that I don't remember noticing at other times. In this run up, one index always seems to be the leader. It was the TRAN for a while. As soon as the TRAN moved above 4000, pulled back, and then rose through it, however, I started noticing other indices picking up, as if the baton were being passed to another sector. If I remember correctly, the financials were next. Now they're appearing to be flagging, and here comes the SOX. It seems to be as if one sector after another is being pumped up, and as soon as it gets to some level that might sustain it in bulls' eyes, so that they'll buy on pullbacks, attention is turned to another. I don't know. Perhaps I just didn't notice this at other times, but it feels artificial to me, and you can literally see it happening if you're watching various indices.

Jonathan Levinson : 12/1/2005 3:35:34 PM

New session high for QQQQ at 42.04: Link

Linda Piazza : 12/1/2005 3:29:33 PM

Ever since the TRAN's rise in the first half hour of the day, each pullback has bound support at or slightly above 4151.32. The TRAN is at 4154.78 as I type, perhaps headed down to test that support.

Linda Piazza : 12/1/2005 3:27:56 PM

Neither the BKX nor the BIX can get above their 10-sma's today, with both staying in the bearish (lower) half of yesterday's long bearish candle. Are the financials' strength flagging?

Linda Piazza : 12/1/2005 3:25:36 PM

Here's where the SOX is with respect to 240-minute Keltne resistance. If you glance down to October, you can see how the SOX treated that outer Keltner boundary test, so you can see that the resistance could be important. If you look at the black channel, you can see that the SOX does sometimes follow this period's Keltner S/R levels. If you glance to the far left of the chart, however, you'll see that even outer-boundary resistance doesn't always hold even though a breakout usually signals the beginning of the end, even if you wouldn't want to hold bearish through that breakout: Link

Jonathan Levinson : 12/1/2005 3:20:54 PM

Volume breadth is holding +4.5:1 on the NYSE, but up to an impressive +6.1:1 on the Nasdaq.

Jonathan Levinson : 12/1/2005 3:19:35 PM

QQQQ returned to the previous high without exceeding it, but bounced from a higher low. The 30 min channel hasn't risen, however, and this could well be the short entry on which our earlier 41.99 was early. If so, then a break of 41.90 , below the rising 72 SMA, should kick off the overdue 30 min cycle downphase. Above the previous high, 30 min channel resistance is at 42.08. Link

Linda Piazza : 12/1/2005 3:18:46 PM

So far, the OEX's 15-minute Keltner resistance holds, and the top of the broadening formation holds, and the advdec line's 15-minute Keltner resistance holds, but if there's not some downside soon, panicked bears are going to bail ahead of tomorrow's economic numbers, and . . . well, you know what that will do.

Jeff Bailey : 12/1/2005 3:18:31 PM

Still no modem from Comcast at this point and not certain I'll get it before today's close.

Late last night, I thought Tab's decision to sell 1/2 of his long position in the QQQQ-tied mutual fund was a good one. My thoughts based on the QQQQ technicals was if the QQQQ made a continued lower move, that a close of 1/2 position with very nice percentage gain for first 1/2 was excellent risk management.

With that said ...

The INDU is just 80-points away from 11,000 and I would have to think that even the most aggressive and perma-bear will be hesitant to try and short until that psychological level (see technical WEEKLY R1 and newly derived MONTHLY R1) gets some trade.

Did the QQQQ trade $42.19 (WEEKLY R1) after this morning's bold move back above WEEKLY S1, but more importantly WEEKLY Pivot? The thought here is that overhead supply remains limited and with today's observation of strength after the close at November's MONTHLY R2, computers and individual market participants (shorts and new longs) provide demand.

How's AMD doing? How's the SOX.X doing? SOX 500.00 and INDU 11,000? While psychological, also some computer-like matching perhaps.

Linda Piazza : 12/1/2005 3:09:19 PM

And the advdec line has still not violated 15-minute Keltner resistance, still showing bearish divergence. The OEX moves back up toward the resistance that has been holding since 11/23, prepared for a breakout or a rollover through that channel, perhaps not until tomorrow, however. If you're in a bullish position, I'll repeat what I said earlier: you might consider taking at least partial profits. Unless the OEX breaks strongly over that resistance soon and you have a cushion above it, there's risk of a rollover through the broadening formation that's been forming since 11/23.

Jonathan Levinson : 12/1/2005 3:06:58 PM

QQQQ - Exit Point Alert -

Out QQQQ stopped at 41.99, flat.

Linda Piazza : 12/1/2005 3:05:32 PM

Bearish setups are still not working. The advdec line resisted confirming that H&S. The SOX has now moved to a new HOD, and will soon test the 240-minute Keltner resistance. OEX heads back toward resistance spanning up to 581.41 on 15-minute closes. OEX at 580.83.

Jane Fox : 12/1/2005 2:58:02 PM

WE are having the first snow storm of the year today and it is like a winter wonderland out my office window. Until I have to drive in it that is then it will be %^&*(^%$.

Linda Piazza : 12/1/2005 2:55:02 PM

The SPX sprang up from that Keltner support that it had been easing below, instead of dropping into the next support band. No real weakening there yet. It tests Keltner resistance at 1264.91 on 15-minute closes, with the SPX at 1264.73. The SPX overruns those 15-minute boundaries a bit sometimes, though.

Linda Piazza : 12/1/2005 2:53:13 PM

If the advdec line doesn't turn around soon, it will have invalidated that little potential H&S on its three-minute chart. Advdec line at 3418 as I type, with Keltner resistance at about 3440 on that chart.

Linda Piazza : 12/1/2005 2:51:43 PM

The OEX still clings to that Keltner support at 580.30 on 15-minute closes, not really breaching it yet, although it's pierced it. Until the OEX falls soundly below that, though, it preserves the possibility that it will go on hammering at resistance, now up to 581.35 on 15-minute closes.

Linda Piazza : 12/1/2005 2:50:15 PM

Oh, my. Just saw a false tick, I think, on the SOX, down to 494.64. What was that that Jeff used to say about these, that they might be an eventual target? I don't see any "size" on the T&S chart for thta 494.64 price.

Jonathan Levinson : 12/1/2005 2:47:02 PM

Stepping away for a few minutes.

Jane Fox : 12/1/2005 2:44:47 PM

The reverse H&S shoulders I thought was so bullish on the TBonds chart has reversed on me and it looks like bonds are heading down again. Link

Jane Fox : 12/1/2005 2:41:44 PM

TICKS +800.

Linda Piazza : 12/1/2005 2:42:09 PM

Advdec line within the right-shoulder level for its potential H&S on the three-minute chart, with a climb up to about 3410-3425 still in keeping with that formation. A drop below 3275 is needed to confirm the formation, but then look for next potential support near 3200. Advdec line at 3328 as I type.

I want to caution readers, however, that even stellar setups are not working, and you can see everything look as if it's going your way, only to have "them" drive prices against your position again. I'm not bragging on myself, but my setup was good this morning. It was a good as those I traded for months and months, with great success. Mark has expressed his frustration for weeks now and again today, but I tell you that these setups that we've all traded are just not working. If you were a newbie trader and just went with the momentum, you're doing great, but those of us who have been caught in those momentum trades and learned the hard way to pay attention to divergences and such other technical aspects haven't always felt comfortable doing that. Jim has had some good ideas about position trades. Tab has had some, too. For most of us, however, our trusted setups are failing. Don't put too much faith in anything, even if matters appear to be going your direction.

Jonathan Levinson : 12/1/2005 2:39:57 PM

QQQQ tests 72 SMA support for the first time today: Link

Jonathan Levinson : 12/1/2005 2:39:23 PM

Session high for gold at 504.20, +9.60.

Linda Piazza : 12/1/2005 2:35:30 PM

The Dow is clinging to 15-minute Keltner support currently at 10936.05, after having risen to test upper resistance and pulling back. Although the Dow has moved below that support, it hasn't really broken below it yet and so still somewhat maintains its support. If it can continue clinging to it, it has a chance of rising into resistance again, at 10927,31 and 10,936.12. Currently, however, subject to change, it looks vulnerable to a pullback to the next support band, at 10886.72-10,901.07. Note: the Dow dropped a little closer to that support band as I typed.

Linda Piazza : 12/1/2005 2:32:35 PM

The TRAN must be tired. Still no new high of the day, with its high reached during the first 30 minute of trading. It's just moving sideways, though, and an upside break isn't ruled out, and maybe is even suggested after a strong early gain.

Linda Piazza : 12/1/2005 2:30:34 PM

There's still a potential H&S on the advdec line's three-minute chart. The potential for this formation to set up was the reason that I suggested earlier that the advdec line might find support at about 3275 and then rise again, with that constituting a move to finish forming the head and then rise into a right shoulder. so far, the rise is choppy enough to suggest that a right shoulder could form, but unless something gets started to the downside soon, bears are going to want to bail. It won't matter what chart setups show, if it has at any time today, as covering bears will drive the markets higher.

Jonathan Levinson : 12/1/2005 2:28:15 PM

Natgas is +.5 at 13.085. Crude is up 1.275 to 58.60.

Linda Piazza : 12/1/2005 2:27:00 PM

SOX back below 500, also having just sunk beneath the three-minute 21-ema, the average that was bouncing it earlier. This is a tentative, tentative sign only on a very short-term chart that the SOX might be changing the day's tenor. It shouldn't be taken as strong encouragement that markets will pull back, just as one little sign to be watched. SOX at 499.49 as I type, three-minute 21-ema at 499.75.

Linda Piazza : 12/1/2005 2:23:17 PM

The advdec line has dropped into next support, the support I mentioned near 3275. It's now at 3309, already rising from the just-reached 3284 low. Bears want to see 3410 or so hold as resistance, although they'd prefer to see a lower resistance level hold.

Meanwhile, the OEX so far maintains the 15-minute Keltner support that has held all day, now at 580.28 on 15-minute closes, with the OEX at 580.40 currently, and back below the QCharts-figured weekly pivot.

Jonathan Levinson : 12/1/2005 2:22:55 PM






Linda Piazza : 12/1/2005 2:17:59 PM

Advdec line drifting lower, but "drifting" is the operative word. This is not a plunge lower. I wouldn't be surprised to see a steadying at about 3275 and then a rise again, perhaps toward 3410, although bears would prefer that it just drop straight down. Advdec line at 3320 as I type.

Linda Piazza : 12/1/2005 2:16:13 PM

The OEX tests the Keltner support that has held all day on each pullback, currently at 580.24 on 15-minute closes. The OEX is currently at 580.33. It won't be so terrible for new bears if the OEX should bounce from this support again if such a bounce produces bearish divergence, hopefully on a lower or equal high. Of course, bears would prefer that the OEX just plunge below that support.

Bulls, I see lots of potential resistance at the day's high. If the OEX gets past all that, then you're going to be celebrating, but I'd be considering taking some partial profits at least.

Jonathan Levinson : 12/1/2005 2:13:45 PM








Jeff Bailey : 12/1/2005 2:11:42 PM

It's just after 12:00 here in Denver. Still no modem from Comcast at this time. Still see a bunch of green tickers on CNBC.

Jane Fox : 12/1/2005 2:10:04 PM

TICKs range today is 1158 to -299, very bullish.

Jonathan Levinson : 12/1/2005 2:08:07 PM

Volume breadth +5:1 on the NYSE, +4.75:1 on the Nasdaq.

Linda Piazza : 12/1/2005 2:07:48 PM

Advdec line isn't dropping significantly.

Linda Piazza : 12/1/2005 2:01:55 PM

If you're still in a bearish OEX play today or thinking about entering one, you're likely watching that resistance shown in the chart linked to my 1:46:46 post. A breakout above that resistance wouldn't be bearish, of course. You're encouraged to see the advdec line post its first three-minute close below the three-minute 21-ema, but only a little encouraged. That's the barest of signs of a minimal change in trend in the advdec line. Although that line has been setting up bearish play after bearish play all day, it hasn't significantly dropped, pulling indices down with it and you need a significant drop in the advdec line, below 2900, to even begin to feel as if there could be a rollover.

Jonathan Levinson : 12/1/2005 2:00:58 PM

72 SMA support is at 41.84, a break of which would reverse the 30 min cycle to the downside. So far, that SMA hasn't been approached, let alone tested all day. The short cycle is rolling over here, but the wavelet cycle is bottomy, setting up the Qs for a possible bounce. Link

Linda Piazza : 12/1/2005 1:55:20 PM

All day, the advdec line has been bouncing from the three-minute 21-ema, now at 3395.29, with the advdec line now at 3450. The advdec line needs to lose that support if bears are to have any hope. It needs to maintain that support to keep bulls happy, although a violation of that support would be only a short-term negative, just a hint of a change in trend.

Jonathan Levinson : 12/1/2005 1:54:49 PM














Jonathan Levinson : 12/1/2005 1:49:43 PM

QQQQ - Stop Loss Adjustment Alert -

QQQQ short from 41.99, move stop to breakeven

Those trying to ride a broader rollover (30 min cycle and daily cycles) would leave the stop at the 42.06 level- always subject to individual risk tolerance, etc. The intraday bias is still strongly bullish, and advancing volume is leaving 5.92:1 on the Nasdaq now.

Linda Piazza : 12/1/2005 1:46:46 PM

Here's where the OEX is with respect to Keltner resistance that usually holds and the broadening formation, complete with bearish divergence: Link If technical analysis were restored to its rightful place in the universe (smile), we'd be looking for a pullback here.

Jonathan Levinson : 12/1/2005 1:43:54 PM

So far our QQQQ short from 41.99 is getting no traction. The wavelet cycle is declining and there's a short cycle Macd bearish-D against the higher price high, but if I don't see some price traction quickly, I'll look to close the short. Link

Linda Piazza : 12/1/2005 1:38:37 PM

The BIX still can't get above its 10-sma.

Linda Piazza : 12/1/2005 1:38:19 PM

No new high of the day yet for the TRAN.

Jeff Bailey : 12/1/2005 1:34:53 PM

Table of Internals for NYSE and NASDAQ at this Link

I'm still waiting for Comcast to show up with my cable modem.

In last night's MM, I showed a chart of the QQQQ with updated MONTHLY Pivot retracement and discussed the QQQQ trading its MONTHLY R2 in July.

The above table is a time period from 07/27/05 to 09/07/05, which would be a historical representation of what happened.

Then, in the lower half of the table, we jump to 11/08/05 to last night's readings.

Now, for the NDX, there are some similarities in the NDX bullish %, but very bothersome to a seller of these markets, or long putter, is that the much broader COMPQ bullish % is just about to reverse back higher, as if broader bullishness of buy signal breadth is about to take place. I see the COMPX is up 33 points on CNBC. In a flat COMPX market yesterday gaining some buy signals (48.70% to 49.24%) there's got to be some reversing buy signals today.

Aslo note how high 94% both the NYSE and NASDAQ 5-day ratios achieved in late July, peaking at around 92%.

Now, the NYSE is probably not going to post high 300 low 400 new highs anytime soon. I might be wrong as their may be a boat load of stocks that are just off their highs, but it is renewed short covering of the new low category (both NYSE and NASDAQ) that could have the 5-day NH/NL ratios vaulting to the +90% level.

From the QQQQ chart posted last night, it really wasn't until 08/08/05 (the 6th session of August) that the QQQQ violated its prior MONTH's (July's) Monthly R2, to hint that PRICE action might turn lower to MONTHLY Pivot.

With yesterday's closing observation (QQQQ close on MONTHLY R2), and today's strong rebound and ability to take out WEEKLY Pivot rather easily, without much contest from sellers, it becomes very difficult to become even intermediate-term swing trade bearish on the QQQQ.

Linda Piazza : 12/1/2005 1:34:14 PM

Advdec line closed the last 15-minute period at Keltner resistance. Bearish divergence continues, both all day today and when compared to Tuesday's swing high to test this same resistance line (then lower). This occurs as many indices test resistance levels, including the OEX testing the top of the broadening formation, the SOX testing 500-503-ish resistance, the Dow, yesterday's high although the Dow moved just a little above yesterday's high. It's definitely either breakout time or rollover time.

Jonathan Levinson : 12/1/2005 1:33:46 PM


1:32pm DE:693773 PORSCHE NOV. U.S. SALES UP 10% VS YR AGO

Jonathan Levinson : 12/1/2005 1:32:56 PM




Jonathan Levinson : 12/1/2005 1:29:43 PM

QQQQ chart, price at last week's highs and testing all intraday channel tops: Link

Linda Piazza : 12/1/2005 1:29:36 PM

Here we are: OEX at Keltner 15-minute resistance at 581.18 on 15-minute closes, with the broadening formation's resistance right about there, too. OEX at 581.08 as I type.

Jonathan Levinson : 12/1/2005 1:28:53 PM

QQQQ - Entry Point Alert -

Short QQQQ at 41.99 stop 42.06

Jane Fox : 12/1/2005 1:28:06 PM

TICKS +1000

Linda Piazza : 12/1/2005 1:27:36 PM

SOX at 500.07. Keltner target of 502.25 up ahead.

Jonathan Levinson : 12/1/2005 1:27:29 PM

Session highs for gold and silver, +7.7 at 502.30, +.229 at 8.501.

Linda Piazza : 12/1/2005 1:26:04 PM

SOX at 499.94.

Linda Piazza : 12/1/2005 1:24:35 PM

Yesterday's high on the Dow was 10,924.82. Today's has been 10,924.18. Hmm. The Dow is now at 10,919.32.

Jonathan Levinson : 12/1/2005 1:23:07 PM

Volume breadth +5:1 on the NYSE, +5.3:1 on the Nasdaq, an impressive show of bullish strength for the entire day. Low range has been in the +3:1 area, advancing volume holding a strong lead throughout.

Linda Piazza : 12/1/2005 1:18:04 PM

OEX 15-minute Keltner resistance and the top of the broadening formation falling away from the 11/23 high are at 581.07 and 581.40, respectively. The advdec line looks overstretched. The SOX approaches 500 and then it's 240-minute Keltner target and resistance, now at 502.25, with the SOX at 499.40 as I type. It feels as if markets need to pull back, but they're not doing it. On Thursday, 11/17, the advdec line set up much as it's doing today, and then broke out to the upside in the afternon a nd moved higher all day, but the advdec line is now already at extreme levels.

Linda Piazza : 12/1/2005 1:11:13 PM

SOX at 499.12 as I type . . .

Jonathan Levinson : 12/1/2005 1:06:26 PM

QQQQ daily chart updated at this Link with the preliminary daily cycle sell signals stalling but not yet reversed.

Jonathan Levinson : 12/1/2005 1:05:23 PM



Jonathan Levinson : 12/1/2005 1:04:20 PM



Linda Piazza : 12/1/2005 1:02:35 PM

SOX at 498.53, down slightly from the day's high of 498.63. It's getting very close. Close enough? Perhaps, but there's not any selling yet.

Linda Piazza : 12/1/2005 1:01:17 PM

The top of the OEX's broadening formation in which it's been pulling back from the high of the 23rd is at about 581.06 currently, but descends. OEX testing the weekly pivot again as I type.

Jonathan Levinson : 12/1/2005 1:00:25 PM






Jonathan Levinson : 12/1/2005 12:59:51 PM






Linda Piazza : 12/1/2005 12:57:48 PM

I think SOX 500 has a lot to do with it, too. I thought this morning that was too obvious of a price magnet for the SOX not to be sent up to test it. SOX at 497.95 as I type, down from the day's high of 498.29.

Linda Piazza : 12/1/2005 12:55:35 PM

Rolling up to the OEX's 15-minute Keltner chart now that it's broken out on the 7-minute, I see next resistance at 581.03 on 15-minute closes. OEX at 580.54 as I type. QCharts says that the weekly pivot is currently being tested, however, with that at 580.50. I had originally placed our stop $0.25 above that pivot and I have a sinking feeling that I should have just left the play running for that test. The advdec line again tests Keltner resistance, still continuing bearing divergence with each little swing high, up through the 15-minute chart.

Jonathan Levinson : 12/1/2005 12:53:03 PM

Session highs for NQ and QQQQ, the SOX holding just off its highs. QQQQ at 41.90 is just below still-flat 30 min channel resistance, and the intraday cycles are growing toppier. Above 42, it's a breakout for the Qs, but that level continues to look like stiff resistance. Link

Jane Fox : 12/1/2005 12:51:54 PM

These two remain bullish. I won't show any more charts of the AD volume because I think I have beat my drum enough. Link

Linda Piazza : 12/1/2005 12:51:06 PM

OEX/SPX Option Trade Exit Point Alert
Bearish entry made at OEX 578.70. Stopped at 580.18 for a 1.48-point loss against the position. I didn't want to put any more of your money at risk, but I'm really afraid that was a high of the day exit as the advdec line is fast approaching resistance again, at about 3425. The Dow, however, had closed a 15-minute period soundly above the 15-minute 100-sma.

Linda Piazza : 12/1/2005 12:47:37 PM

OEX/SPX Option Trade Exit Point Alert
Exit now. I'm seeing too many mixed signals. The 7-minute Keltner resistance continues to hold, but the OEX is awfully close to setting up an upside target near 581.35-582.35, although I haven't yet been signaled to exit according to the advdec line. Instead, it just keeps giving new potential sell signals, but there have been times in the past when the signal is early or just plain wrong. Those who want to stay in a bearish play (although this one is now officially closed) want to see a quick drop below 3100 in the advdec line and then want it to stay below that on retests, then dropping soon below 2700.

Jonathan Levinson : 12/1/2005 12:45:24 PM

Volume breadth is up to +4.7:1 on the NYSE, +4.4:1 on the Nasdaq.

Linda Piazza : 12/1/2005 12:42:25 PM

Advdec line dropping again, but now we need to see it below 3140 and stay there. It's currently at 3104, QCharts value.

Linda Piazza : 12/1/2005 12:37:43 PM

Big jump again in the advdec line, back above 3200, to 3243 as I type, testing resistance again, with 15-minute resistance higher at 3415. There's a rough potential H&S on the advdec line's one-minute chart, but the right shoulder is already a little high and the advdec line needs to pull back quickly or the formation will be invalidated.

Jane Fox : 12/1/2005 12:36:27 PM

TICKS +800 Bulls are waking up again.

Linda Piazza : 12/1/2005 12:33:26 PM

The Dow closed the 15-minute period at the 15-minute 100-sma. Here's a chart: Link If I weren't already in a bearish play, this would look like a good place from which to test one.

Jonathan Levinson : 12/1/2005 12:33:24 PM

Ten year note yields easy back to 4.531%, a 3.1 bp gain here, ZN down 7/32 at 108 33/64.

Linda Piazza : 12/1/2005 12:31:04 PM

Advdec line below 3200, at 3169 as I type. That's only the first very slight, very, very slight, move in the favor of our bearish play. We next need to see a strong drop below 2900.

Jeff Bailey : 12/1/2005 12:31:56 PM

NASDAQ NH/NL Ratio Chart at this Link ... The recent five day NH/NL reading of 74% came on the 11/25/05 close, with actual reading of 75.7%.

Linda Piazza : 12/1/2005 12:29:46 PM

The Dow popped above that 15-minute 100-sma during the current 15-minute period, with that average at 10,903.86 and with the Dow currently at 10,903.92, pulling back from the day's high of 10,907.85. It's going to be touch and go as to whether the Dow manages a 15-minute close above that MA, but it looks as if it's again providing at least some resistance and I wouldn't count a minimal close above it as being definitive.

Linda Piazza : 12/1/2005 12:26:54 PM

Advdec line finally dropping a bit. Not much yet. As a first step our direction, we need to see it drop significantly below 3200, with the advdec line now at 3210 as I type, QCharts value, approaching support at 3196.

Jonathan Levinson : 12/1/2005 12:22:11 PM

Volume breadth is +4.22:1 on the NYSE, +4.4:1 on the Nasdaq, still very strong.

Jonathan Levinson : 12/1/2005 12:21:13 PM

QQQQQ returns to 41.87, 3 cents off the highs, with the 30 min channel top already declining to 41.92. However, the corrective short cycle downphase has stalled and is turning up well above oversold territory. I'm thinking that a break of the session high could see a quick run to 42. The mixed intraday cycles are muddying the waters. Link

Linda Piazza : 12/1/2005 12:12:30 PM

No breakout on the OEX above the 7-minute Keltner resistance, a rising wedge look to the climb, no new breakout on the advdec line and bearish divergence continuing on the 15-minute chart. But nothing's happening in our favor, either.

Linda Piazza : 12/1/2005 12:11:21 PM

The DOW tests its 15-minute 100-sma, with that average at 10,904.17. As I study that chart, it's clear that there's remarkable correlation in the Dow's behavior and that average for the last several weeks, with one exception being the trading going on late Tuesday and early Wednesday, when some candles were spanning the average. The Dow is at 10,902.88 as I type.

Linda Piazza : 12/1/2005 12:08:31 PM

Previous HOD being tested on the OEX. Seven-minute Keltner resistance is holding into the closes, but the OEX is nudging that higher. There's bearish divergence as it does so, with bearish divergence continuing on the advdec line's 15-minute chart. I'd like to hold this play open a bit longer, waiting for an advdec line downturn, but it sure better come soon. This isn't so painful when it's just me in a play, silently watching.

Jane Fox : 12/1/2005 11:59:24 AM

There are no 100%s in the market but this pattern is about as close as I have very come to an almost certainty. I will not take a short as a long as the AD volume is this strong and AD line is this bullish. Link

Jonathan Levinson : 12/1/2005 11:58:36 AM

Ten year note yields continue to run higher, now +3.9 bps at 4.539% and steepening against 13-week rates, up 1.8 bps at 3.875%.

Linda Piazza : 12/1/2005 11:55:46 AM

Dow just reached a minimal new high, at 10,901.76, but it's back slightly below 10,900, at 10,898.40 as I type.

Linda Piazza : 12/1/2005 11:54:40 AM

No breakout yet on the OEX's 7-minute Keltner chart, but this certainly isn't pleasant. Seven-minute resistance at 579.72 on 7-minute closes currently, with resistance and support looking about equally weighted. OEX at 579.33 as I type, just above massed support. There's going to be a breakout one direction or the other, although I can't estimate when. We need to see the advdec line drop quickly below 2900 and stay there on retests. If it does drop below 2900, it will probably then find support near 2700, although I wish it wouldn't, and then retest that 2900 level.

Linda Piazza : 12/1/2005 11:47:37 AM

The OEX's descending trendline off the 11/23 high is far above the current price, at about 581.21 currently.

Jonathan Levinson : 12/1/2005 11:47:03 AM

Stepping away for a few minutes.

Linda Piazza : 12/1/2005 11:46:44 AM

The SPX has so far closed 60-minute periods below a descending trendline off the highs of 11/23, but it's still testing that trendline, with that trendline just a hair under 1261, if I've drawn it correctly. SPX at 1260.51 as I type.

Jonathan Levinson : 12/1/2005 11:46:06 AM

So far, this short cycle downphase is doing a whole lot of nothing, and the decline has a sideways, flaggy feel to it. With the indicators at the halfway point in the range, there's the potential of another bounce to testthe top of the 30 min channel at the Friday/Monday highs (levels which have already been breached by the SOX). QQQQ bulls many not be done yet on this broader 30/60 min cycle upphase. Link

Linda Piazza : 12/1/2005 11:39:47 AM

The BIX has a potential inverse H&S at the bottom of its decline, head at yesterday's low, neckline now just a touch below 366, with the BIX's 10-sma at 366.25 and with other resistance in that zone. The BIX is at 364.44, having already tested and pulled back from the 10-sma once today. If the BIX can't push above that resistance, it looks vulnerable to a decline back to the 200-sma to me, with that average at 355.17 currently. We don't know yet which way it's going to go.

Jonathan Levinson : 12/1/2005 11:38:59 AM

Ten year notes hit a low of 108 31/64, with TNX now up 2.3 bps at 4.523% in a strong intraday reversal.

Jeff Bailey : 12/1/2005 11:38:49 AM

NYSE NH/NL Ratio Chart at this Link ... As of last night's close.

The 5-day NH/NL ratio did give a "buy signal" on 11/23/05 and that day's NH/NL tabulation was 211:67. At today's close, we'll look to see if that type of breadth is achieved.

The 10-day ratio also gave a "buy signal" (intermediate term bullish leadership building) at yesterday's close.

Jane Fox : 12/1/2005 11:32:42 AM

This is where I get a knot in my stomach. I have a system and I totally believe in order for a system to work you HAVE to take each and every signal, you can't just pick and choose or the system will not work. Well I just got a sell signal in ER and the AD volume is so very bullish, what the heck do I do? Do I believe my system more than the AD volume or the AD volume more than my system? I think I will go with the AD volume and not take the short. ARGHHHH!!!!

Jonathan Levinson : 12/1/2005 11:32:39 AM

QQQQ's 30 min channel top has advanced to 42. The wavelet pullback is bottoming after a short decline, setting up another possible retest of the current 41.87 high. Link

Tab Gilles : 12/1/2005 11:32:24 AM


Linda Piazza : 12/1/2005 11:28:08 AM

Tab's post reminded me of something that I wanted to mention in addition to appreciation of Jane's Wrap last night. I know some of you probably miss Tab's late-night or early morning posts, but you should look for those. He's had some great results.

Jane Fox : 12/1/2005 11:27:28 AM

Thank you so much Tab.

Tab Gilles : 12/1/2005 11:26:40 AM

Jane, great job on last nights wrap. I agree with your comments on being suspect if the SPX makes a higher high and the MACD a lower high (Bearish Divergence).

My take on the $NDX was to take some profits and then hedge. 1700 is currently resistance and we may see 1735. Looking at the daily and weekly charts the NDX looks over bought and yes- they can remain that way longer then we expect. Let's see if this is a bearish divergence or a double top?

Like you stated- " It takes a lot to make a bull market." Link Link

Linda Piazza : 12/1/2005 11:25:47 AM

OEX dropping to test that strong support band that I mentioned. It's not yet getting enough help from the advdec line, which is easing, but still holding to support now at about 3150, with the advdec line at 3160 as I type. If there's not a steep decline in the advdec line, the OEX will either have to chop around until it loosens up that support or else it's going to bounce from it again. On the 7-minute chart, it's now squeezed firmly between support and the resistance that's been holding all day, so this is a particularly iffy point.

Linda Piazza : 12/1/2005 11:23:44 AM

Dow high has been 10,901.28. One of my charts shows a support/resistance band that stretches up to about 10,908.

Jonathan Levinson : 12/1/2005 11:22:50 AM

The wavelet cycle upphase has stuff failed early, below overbought territory on a sell program. The short cycle indicators are in a downphase as well. 72 SMA support is still 27 cents' south, below which the steep, almost vertical 30 min cycle upphase would reverse. Link

Linda Piazza : 12/1/2005 11:19:11 AM

Still bearish divergence on the advdec line, and it now pulls back ever so slightly from its test of the upper Keltner resistance on the 15-minute chart. It hasn't pulled back far yet, however, and we need it do so. That resistance is now at 3370, with the advdec line at 3266. The OEX will soon test support that's gathered thickly from 577.98-578.86, so we need a strong drop in the advdec line to carry the OEX through that potential Keltner support.

Jonathan Levinson : 12/1/2005 11:17:03 AM

Session low for ten year notes, with TNX up to a .2 bp gain at 4.502%, just ticking positive here.

Linda Piazza : 12/1/2005 11:15:46 AM

The SOX's 240-minute Keltner chart shows the SOX's next resistance at 501.96 for now. (It's still rising). On October 28, this chart showed a downside target of 411.76, with the SOX hitting a low that day of 413.00 before springing higher. So, these targets are not exact, but there appears to be some correlation at the outer boundaries. That doesn't preclude the SOX hitting that or approaching that, then drawing back and charging higher again as the resistance moves higher, but it gives us some idea of where resistance might be found if the SOX continues charging higher. I don't like the number of gaps the SOX has had in that charge higher, so am not totally convinced the SOX will hit that upper boundary.

Linda Piazza : 12/1/2005 11:12:09 AM

SOX charging up toward 500, at 497.06 as I type. It hasn't made the slightest attempt at filling this morning's gap, but I would imagine that 500 is going to be a price magnet. These things begin to be self-fulfilling sometimes.

Linda Piazza : 12/1/2005 11:11:03 AM

Advdec line now just below next resistance, at about 3370 now on 15-minute closes, with the advdec line now at 3310, just down from a 3338 high. Still seeing bearish divergence, but the OEX is looking stronger than I like by some measures. Still a risky play, obviously.

Linda Piazza : 12/1/2005 11:09:11 AM

Both times the OEX has risen today, it's been the 7-minute Keltner resistance, now at 579.61 but lower earlier, that's stopped it on 7-minute closes. When it dropped, it was 7-minute support now at 578.81 but then much lower, that supported it, so I'll be watching the 7-minute Keltner chart. OEX at 579.54 as I type.

Tab Gilles : 12/1/2005 11:08:54 AM

I had the a similar problem as Jeff, with Comcast cable connection a month ago. Turned out to be a connection outside from the telephone pole to the house. Bad connector, caused from high winds and rain. I had to switch to phone modem line....geezzzz it was slow. You really get spoiled with cables speed. :)

Linda Piazza : 12/1/2005 11:06:48 AM

The BIX has been testing the 10-sma from the underside, with the 10-sma at 366.28 and the BIX currently at 364.75, down from a day's high of 365.46.

Jonathan Levinson : 12/1/2005 11:06:35 AM

Volume breadth +4.4:1 on the NYSE, +4.5:1 on the Nasdaq.

Jane Fox : 12/1/2005 11:05:52 AM

VIX confirms ES's new daily high.

Jonathan Levinson : 12/1/2005 11:05:34 AM

The wavelet upphase is roughly 2/3 done, and the short cycle indicators have already printed a bearish cross. So far, the bounce hasn't approached the previous session high, QQQQ currently holding at 41.82: Link

Linda Piazza : 12/1/2005 11:04:59 AM

Next advdec line resistance at 3360 currently, advdec line high at 3275 a few minutes ago. It's now at 3237, QCharts value. There's still bearish divergence on the 15-minute chart.

Jane Fox : 12/1/2005 11:04:00 AM

THis is pretty bullish TICK chart. Link

Linda Piazza : 12/1/2005 11:02:36 AM

OEX/SPX Option Trade Signals
I am so far seeing pronounced but still tentative bearish divergence on the advdec line's five-minute chart with the current climb. That's what we want to see, although I wish I'd just closed the play at 10:43:41 when I made that post about the bounce and suggested that some might exit. I don't like putting readers through discomfort. The OEX has for the first time today closed a 15-minute period above the 15-minute 100/130-ema's, so I think we're going to see a rise in the OEX along with the rise in the advdec line, but the advdec line is fast approaching the next resistance.

Jane Fox : 12/1/2005 10:57:52 AM

TICKs +1000

Linda Piazza : 12/1/2005 10:57:08 AM

RUT above the 11/23 high by a couple of cents, still below the nearby August high.

Linda Piazza : 12/1/2005 10:55:52 AM

Advdec line now at 3124. Next resistance at 3340 now. We're probably going to see where our bearish entry should have been. Hopefully we won't be stopped in the process.

Linda Piazza : 12/1/2005 10:54:14 AM

RUT approaching the 11/23 high of 686.22, with the RUT at 685.84. The August high was 688.51.

Jane Fox : 12/1/2005 10:53:31 AM

I find trading a lot easier when these two talk to me like they are today. Link

Linda Piazza : 12/1/2005 10:49:20 AM

Strong push just now in the BIX. The BIX had a little H&S on its one-minute chart, and did confirm it and did fall, but didn't meet its downside target. So, the evidence was mixed there, but there's certainly evidence that bulls are trying to push the BIX higher. So far, it's below the day's high.

Jonathan Levinson : 12/1/2005 10:49:09 AM

A buy signal on the wavelet oscillator here. QQQQ bears want to see a test and failure at the 41.87 high to confirm a short cycle top: Link

Jeff Bailey : 12/1/2005 10:48:50 AM

How are CME, BOT and ICE doing today? Bullish/bearish/unchanged? If bullish, and depending by how much, along with volumes, might give an equity trader some reaction as to the nat gas figures.

Linda Piazza : 12/1/2005 10:47:17 AM

Advdec line bouncing, as I warned that it looked as if it might do. About 3325 is the next target, but if that's hit, bears want to see bearish divergence. OEX testing those 15-minut 100/130-ema's again, at 578.97 and 578.72, respectively.

Jeff Bailey : 12/1/2005 10:46:41 AM

Distillate and Nat. Gas Inventory table at this Link

I took CNBC's report of 49 bpc draw and subtracted it from last week's data (so not confirmed from EIA report). However, the year-ago change is what traders will focus on for about the next three-months.

Jane Fox : 12/1/2005 10:45:32 AM

TICKS +1000

Jane Fox : 12/1/2005 10:45:21 AM

TICKS +800

Linda Piazza : 12/1/2005 10:43:40 AM

OEX/SPX Option Trade Exit Point Alert
I'm seeing evidence that the advdec line could actually bounce from this level, the 2900 level. If so, it's likely to bounce up toward 3325 or so, hopefully creating bearish divergence if it does. Some might elect to take an exit now, at 578.03, down from our 578.70 entry. I'm keeping the play officially open, although watching carefully and I'll likely take a profit stop at 577.50, or that's my thinking right now.

Jonathan Levinson : 12/1/2005 10:43:16 AM

Session low for ten year notes at 108 23/32, with TNX up to a .2 bp loss at 4.498%. 13-week bill rate is up 1 bp at 3.867%.

Jonathan Levinson : 12/1/2005 10:38:41 AM

Crude oil is +.375 at 57.70, natgas +.16 at 12.745 here.

Jonathan Levinson : 12/1/2005 10:36:22 AM




Linda Piazza : 12/1/2005 10:36:21 AM

OEX/SPX Option Trade Exit Point Alert
May raise the profit target to the point when the advdec line reaches 2600, depending on what I see as that is approached. The Keltner line I'm watching has risen to that level. Advdec line now at 2909, QCharts value. I just wanted to let those of you with QCharts, able to check the levels for yourselves, know what I'm thinking. For the others, I estimate (but this is iffy) that the OEX might be at about 577.50 at that time. Hopefully lower.

Jonathan Levinson : 12/1/2005 10:35:44 AM

So far, this pullback is just a wavelet decline, and the short cycle indicators haven't rolled over yet. The next wavelet bottom, due within minutes, should provide one last push (Keene's wave?) to retest the highs as the short cycle tops out: Link

Linda Piazza : 12/1/2005 10:33:35 AM

Laughing at myself. If Jeff isn't getting any incoming signals but can send, then he's able to post but not to read our posts, so he's not able to read my not-so-helpful update on AMD's price.

Linda Piazza : 12/1/2005 10:31:20 AM

OEX/SPX Option Trade Signals
The advdec line has been poised weightless at its day's high, easing just a little now. The TRAN is backing off its day's high, forming yet another broadening formation that began forming late Tuesday. Sigh. The OEX isn't doing much of anything, holding Keltner resistance and 15-minute 100/130-ema's resistance, but not convincingly just yet. There's still a possibility of another advdec line punch higher before a pullback, so exit now if you're nervous about it. The OEX is at 578.40 as I type, just a little below our 578.70 entry.

Jonathan Levinson : 12/1/2005 10:31:18 AM

Volume breadth declines to +3.85:1 on the NYSE, +3.93:1 on the Nasdaq.

Jonathan Levinson : 12/1/2005 10:27:55 AM

Session high for gold at 500.50- hearing that this is the first time the front-month gold contract has broken 500 in 18 years.

Linda Piazza : 12/1/2005 10:27:47 AM

Jeff, AMD now at $26.99, so you're not stopped yet.

Jeff Bailey : 12/1/2005 10:27:03 AM

Advanced Micro (AMD) ... Traders are likely stopped out of the remaining 1/2 bearish position.

I didn't have a hard stop in my account. When I talked to Ameritrade (via phone) stock was $26.80. I've now placed a hard stop (via phone) at $27.05.

Linda Piazza : 12/1/2005 10:26:34 AM

Sorry for your technical difficulties, Jeff. That's so frustrating when we all do the best we can to have the best equipment and provide the most up-to-date information for our readers. Technical difficulties do occur, however unfortunately. I've had my own problems with Comcast, but unfortunately, I can't get DSL where I am and I have only one choice for fast internet connections.

Jonathan Levinson : 12/1/2005 10:26:00 AM

QQQ fails at a high of 41.87 and returns to 41.77. With upper channel limits being tested or broken, there will be strong short cycle resistance within even rising intraday channels, setting up a better chance of sideways chop - either consolidation or distribution. The longer daily cycle indicators remain on the sell side, stalling today but not reversing higher yet. Link

Jane Fox : 12/1/2005 10:23:57 AM

I have seen the AD volume look like this too many times to believe we are going anywhere but up. Of course if this thing should start to fall then I may change my story but for now it is bullish.

Jeff Bailey : 12/1/2005 10:23:44 AM

With QQQQ going by at $41.86, this looks like a "trend day," with the majors going to close at their highs of the session.

Comcast called me back and a service technician will be here "before noon." The receive light on my modem isn't lit, and the tech needs to bring me a knew one.

Linda Piazza : 12/1/2005 10:24:24 AM

The SOX is now at the top of a long-term rising regression channel, building since August 2004. During that time, the SOX has severaltimes broken above that rising channel intra-week, but usually closes back inside it at the week's end. The channel, drawn by QCharts, now crosses at about 493.90, with the SOX now at 494.22, just down from its day's high. This is the SOX's third gap higher (maybe fourth, if you consider the small gap in October) in its climb off its October low, and that may be warning of a possible exhaustion gap. It looks like a breakaway gap, a gap that breaks above (or below, as the case might be) out of a consolidation pattern, but the fact that it's at least the third gap in that climb offers a bit of a warning.

Jane Fox : 12/1/2005 10:24:51 AM

Here is where the AD volume and AD line need to be "read." See how the AD line is falling making one believe we are making a top but the AD volume is not. If the AD line were around +500 or less I would be saying that a top could be forming but with the AD line at this very bullish level and the AD Volume as strong as it is I don't think we have seen a top only a consolidation that will take us higher. Link

Linda Piazza : 12/1/2005 10:17:27 AM

OEX/SPX Option Trade Signals
The OEX is testing Keltner resistance at 578.85 on 15-minute closes. If the OEX gets much past that, then the next resistance on that chart is at 581.06 and our bearish play is in trouble, so you can also use that as a benchmark for your personal stops. OEX at 578.50 as I type.

Jonathan Levinson : 12/1/2005 10:12:18 AM

QQQQ - Exit Point Alert -

Out QQQQ at 41.83, -.06

Jeff Bailey : 12/1/2005 10:12:04 AM

I hear the ECB raised rates. That may well have ignited today's bullishness.

Global economic growth.

Jonathan Levinson : 12/1/2005 10:10:28 AM

The SOX pulls back slightly to 493.7 here, still well above all intraday cycle channels at new highs for the Nov. rally: Link

Linda Piazza : 12/1/2005 10:10:20 AM

OEX/SPX Option Trade Signals
I'm thinking about an automatic exit when the advdec line drops to about 2550, depending on what I see with the advdec line and with the OEX. The advdec line is now at 3104. I'd like to wait until the advdec line hits about 2000, at a Keltner line that it usually does retreat to touch, but I'm skittish about collecting quick profits, if offered.

Jonathan Levinson : 12/1/2005 10:08:00 AM

Volume breadth declines to a still-very-strong +5.14:1 on the NYSE, +4.12:1 on the Nasdaq.

Jane Fox : 12/1/2005 10:06:15 AM

... or here. Link

Jonathan Levinson : 12/1/2005 10:05:48 AM

Session highs for gold and silver at 499 and 8.33 respectively.

Linda Piazza : 12/1/2005 10:05:40 AM

Here's what I'm watching on the advdec line, showing resistance being tested, RSI above 70, bearish divergence, but it sure better start working soon on the price: Link

Jane Fox : 12/1/2005 10:05:27 AM

No weakness here. Link

Jonathan Levinson : 12/1/2005 10:04:22 AM


10:02am U.S. NOV. ISM JOBS 56.6% VS 55.0% IN OCT.

10:02am U.S. NOV. ISM NEW ORDERS 59.8% VS 61.7% IN OCT.

Jonathan Levinson : 12/1/2005 10:03:42 AM

Hopefully it's not a case of "fools seldom differ" ;)

Jonathan Levinson : 12/1/2005 10:03:14 AM


10:02am U.S. NOV. ISM PRICES 74.0% VS 84.0% IN OCT.

Jane Fox : 12/1/2005 10:02:58 AM

I do see a top forming in price but certainly not in the AD line and volume.

Jonathan Levinson : 12/1/2005 10:02:56 AM

Here's the chart- risky entry with tight stop just above all channels and Tuesday high with short cycle indicators ripe for a pullback: Link

Jeff Bailey : 12/1/2005 10:02:22 AM

I'm waiting for a service call from Comcast. It appears I can send data out through my cable modem, but I can't see/get any data in.

Jonathan Levinson : 12/1/2005 10:02:04 AM

QQQQ - Entry Point Alert -

Short QQQQ at 41.77 stop 41.83

Jonathan Levinson : 12/1/2005 10:01:32 AM




Jonathan Levinson : 12/1/2005 10:01:03 AM






Linda Piazza : 12/1/2005 10:00:14 AM

OEX/SPX Option Trade Entry Point Alert
Entered a bearish OEX options play with the OEX at 578.70. Hopefully some of you were able to get a better (higher) entry, but I have to have a benchmark, and that's when the al_rt sounds on the MM. Stop at 580.75.

Set a closer stop if you prefer, but it's possible that there could be an advdec line pullback and second push slightly higher before the real advdec line pullback. The OEX would of course likely move higher with the advdec line on that second, hopefully bearish-divergence producing push. The OEX currently tests the 15-minute 100/130-ema's, and may even break a little above them, but you could also base your stop on an account-appropriate amount above those averages, now at 579.02 and 578.74, respectively, with the OEX at 579.03 as I type.

Jeff Bailey : 12/1/2005 9:59:40 AM

Just saw the QQQQ go by at $41.72 on the CNBC ticker. That's WEEKLY Pivot and for bears, it better hold.

Jane Fox : 12/1/2005 9:59:21 AM

Egads I was expecting a sideways to maybe down day today. The bulls certainly pulled one on me.

Jonathan Levinson : 12/1/2005 9:58:14 AM

Session highs across the board awaiting the 10AM data.

Jane Fox : 12/1/2005 9:57:59 AM

TICKS +800

Linda Piazza : 12/1/2005 9:55:53 AM

OEX/SPX Option Trade Entry Point Alert
Extremely risky play. Enter a bearish options play. Stop at 580.75. I'll be exiting based on the advdec line and so can't give you a profit target right now, but it's likely to be close to the 10-sma unless the advdec line just plummets.

Jonathan Levinson : 12/1/2005 9:54:25 AM

A 6B overnight repo results in a net add of 750M for the day.

Jonathan Levinson : 12/1/2005 9:50:27 AM

Volume breadth is strong verging on extreme, +5.4:1 on the NYSE, +5.1:1 on the Nasdaq.

Linda Piazza : 12/1/2005 9:49:41 AM

No pullback in the advdec line just yet. The OEX's climb is stronger than its 3-point climb Tuesday morning, with the climb about 4.5 points this morning, but otherwise the setup, advdec-wise, looks much as it did Tuesday morning, not leading me to want to chase this opening bounce. Watching to see if anything bearish sets up, but if it does, it may be just a quick-and-fast light pullback. It will be impossible to tell when the play is entered if that's what it is or if it's going to be something stronger, so any who elect to participate in it should buy an option with enough delta to capture a small pullback and be profitable and should be right there at the computer, ready to exit at a moment's notice.

Jane Fox : 12/1/2005 9:49:26 AM

Bulls are in firm control of the reins today. Link

Jonathan Levinson : 12/1/2005 9:49:57 AM

R1 in play for QQQQ here at the highs, still strongly above its 30 and 60 min channel tops. Awaiting the Fed's repo decision, and the 10AM data (ISM, Construction Spending). Link

Jonathan Levinson : 12/1/2005 9:46:03 AM

Session highs across the board, QQQQ testing resitance on the declining linear channel from Monday's highs, breaking above as I type: Link

Jane Fox : 12/1/2005 9:45:55 AM

TICKS +1000

Jane Fox : 12/1/2005 9:45:28 AM

Now the TICKS join the party +800.

Jane Fox : 12/1/2005 9:44:21 AM

VIX to new daily lows confirming the bullishness in the AD line and volume.

Jonathan Levinson : 12/1/2005 9:58:02 AM

The SOX has blasted clean above the highs, holding above 490 here: Link Contrast to QQQQ, which has yet to even test Tuesday's highs.

Linda Piazza : 12/1/2005 9:41:20 AM

No pullback as yet on the advdec line and still some room to go before it signals an overdone condition on the 15-minute chart. It's way overdone on the five- through seven-minute charts, approaching that condition on the 10-minute. The OEX has moved right back into that 577-578.40-ish S/R zone, and is now parked just beneath the 15-minute 100/130-ema's that it tested for so long this week before finally falling beneath them yesterday. The Dow and SPX are parked at or just beneath them, too, but the TRAN has already driven past those averages.

Jane Fox : 12/1/2005 9:40:00 AM

As Mark mentioned AD line is a very bullish +1485 and of course the AD volume confirms the bullishness above 0.

Jeff Bailey : 12/1/2005 9:39:25 AM

I have no data feed coming in from my cable modem at this point and am trying to resolve the problem (QCharts / Trading Account )

Linda Piazza : 12/1/2005 9:37:38 AM

The TRAN has moved right back up toward the top of the consolidation range from Tuesday and yesterday, a descending regression channel that started out as a right shoulder for a roughly formed H&S. A 15-minute close above the Keltner resistance now at 4138.27 would suggest an upside break out of that descending channel, but it would need to be confirmed by a move above Tuesday's 4161.86 high. The TRAN is at 4141.61 as I type.

Jonathan Levinson : 12/1/2005 9:37:17 AM

Price is holding above 30 and 60 min channel resistance for QQQQ. Aggressive bears would short this print with a stop at 41.60. I will not, because the short cycle is turning up, early in an upphase, and because the 60 min cycle is turning up from oversold, due for a bounce.

Linda Piazza : 12/1/2005 9:33:52 AM

The expected OEX bounce, moving the OEX right up to and a little through the 30-minute 100/130-ema's. The advdec line climbs right into the resistance that stopped it midday yesterday, moving a little past it as I type, with that resistance at 1850 on 15-minute closes and the advdec line at 1963 as I type. The movement is not yet registering as overdone to the upside on that 15-minute chart, but is up through the 7-minute chart, stretching the upper Keltner boundary already on that chart.

Jonathan Levinson : 12/1/2005 9:33:47 AM

Volume breadth +6:1 on the NYSE, +4.9:1 on the Nasdaq.

Jonathan Levinson : 12/1/2005 9:31:41 AM

QQQQ intraday chart updated at this Link with 72 SMA support at 41.32.

Jonathan Levinson : 12/1/2005 9:04:15 AM




Jonathan Levinson : 12/1/2005 9:03:08 AM

The Fed has 14.25B in various repos expiring today, and has just announced a 14-day repo in the amount of 9B, leaving 5.25B with which to deal at the 10AM announcement. The stopout rate was 4% and the highest rate submitted 4.02%, showing a slight increase in demand for the money on the part of the Fed's dealers.

Linda Piazza : 12/1/2005 8:47:07 AM

Yesterday, the OEX finally retreated to test its 10-sma, a test that's been long overdue even if the OEX is to remain strong. The OEX overran that average into the close. There's the possibility that momentum just carried the OEX below that 10-sma, and that the OEX finally stopped at the Keltner and broadening-channel support that I had mentioned through the afternoon, with that support now at 573.56 (on 15-minute closes) to 574.40, and with the OEX ending the day at 574.66.

This entire update was originally composed immediately after the close yesterday and here's what I wrote: Unless the OEX is going to cascade lower this morning, we should probably expect a bounce attempt, perhaps after an early punch lower, deeper into that support zone but perhaps from yesterday's close, since that was near the 50% retracement of its latest climb, off the lows of the 16th. It appears this morning that the bounce will begin immediately.

I continued in the portion written yesterday afternoon to say that on any bounce, we'll be watching the 30-minute 100/130-ema's for rollover potential, with those averages at 577.38 and 576.02, respectively. I'll be watching for any setups that might appear, bullish or bearish. As you saw yesterday morning, following the advdec line setups kept us from getting trapped in an early long play, although it had appeared that the OEX would attempt a bounce, and got us into a bearish play. Unfortunately, the 15-minute chart, the one I prefer to give the signals, gave none at all yesterday, and I was working on a shorter-term chart and therefore anxious to take profit quickly when that short-term chart signaled bounce potential as the 10-sma was approached. We could have milked that play for much bigger gains, but hopefully some stayed in as I suggested that aggressive bears might do and took profit closer to the close yesterday. That's just the way these plays set up sometimes, but I'll take that if they also keep me out of too many bad plays, as they've been doing lately. The plays did not perform as expected during November's options expiration cycle, but they also gave far fewer signals. We want to do better than losing less money than we might have, though. I think we may see trading success look up again soon.

With that said, there's still much uncertainty about market direction. If you were reading the Futures side yesterday, you saw an interesting discussion on where markets might be positioned with respect to a secular bear market, and you read varied opinions about whether the markets have topped for the year or will see new recent highs. Some of that uncertainty is reflected in market action, making it less amenable to technical analysis than usual. That means that I will sometimes read conflicting signs that keep me out of the markets when you think I should be issuing signals. I'm not going to suggest a play for readers if I don't see enough corroboration. I'm going to tell you already that I'm probably not going to be entering long right at the open, not with a chance that the SPX will run right up to its 10-sma, the Dow right up to 10,868-10,908 resistance, and the OEX right up into its 10-sma or the 577-578.40 resistance zone. I'm going to want corroboration that we're not seeing a pop-and-drop day and that corroboration isn't likely to occur right at the open. That may mean, if it's not to be a pop-and-drop day but rather a gain-all-day-with-nary-a-pullback day, we're going to miss any entry at all. Feel free to use your own judgment about when to enter and which direction.

Jonathan Levinson : 12/1/2005 8:33:33 AM

QQQQ +.24 to 41.48, TNX -3.9 bps to 4.461%, ZN peaked at 109, currently +15/64 at 108 31/32.

Jonathan Levinson : 12/1/2005 8:32:34 AM




Jonathan Levinson : 12/1/2005 8:32:14 AM










Jonathan Levinson : 12/1/2005 8:31:00 AM




Jonathan Levinson : 12/1/2005 8:29:38 AM

Session high for ten year notes, just crossing the 72 SMA at 108 29/32, currently +7/64 at 108 30/32 (108 15/16).

Jonathan Levinson : 12/1/2005 8:27:02 AM

Here's a 3 min chart of QQQQ showing price breaching upper 30 and 60 min channel resistance on the open. That's often a recipe for a gap & crap open. The 30 min cycle was stalled at the close at the midpoint of its range, but the 60 min cycle was turning up from deep in oversold territory. That's the uncertainty of the current setup- mixed longer intraday cycles surrounding a strong short cycle upphase only now becoming overbought: Link

Jonathan Levinson : 12/1/2005 8:24:03 AM

QQQQ holds a .23 gain at 41.47 ahead of the 8:30 data.

Jonathan Levinson : 12/1/2005 8:22:59 AM

Ten year notes hold their gain, with TNX quoted -2.2 bps at 4.478%. IRX is flat at 3.857%, flattening the yield curve.

Jonathan Levinson : 12/1/2005 7:51:05 AM

Session high for ten year notes at 108 7/8, session lows for euros at 1.175 and swiss franc futures at .7597. Euro chart at this Link swiss francs Link and ZN futures: Link

Jonathan Levinson : 12/1/2005 7:47:29 AM

Euro futures are currently down .18% at 1.1784 (basis E7Z5 contract). off a low of 1.1768.

Jonathan Levinson : 12/1/2005 7:46:47 AM





Jonathan Levinson : 12/1/2005 7:36:58 AM





Jonathan Levinson : 12/1/2005 7:33:19 AM

Equities are up, ES trading 1258.25, NQ 1686, YM 10882 and QQQQ +.26 to 41.50. Gold is up 2.4 to 497, silver +.048 to 8.32, ten year notes +1/16 to 108 51/64, crude oil -.25 to 57.075 and natgas -.065 to 12.52.

We await the 8:30 releases of Initial Claims, est. 325K, Personal Income and Personal Spending, est. .5% and .2% respectively, and at 10AM, Construction Spending and the ISM, est. .5% and 58 respectively.

Linda Piazza : 12/1/2005 6:46:57 AM

Good morning. The Nikkei soared last night, closing well above 15,000. Other Asian markets were mixed, however. European markets gain this morning ahead of an ECB rate decision. As of 6:38 EST, gold was higher by $0.80, to $499.50, and crude, lower by $0.19, to $57.13. Our futures were higher. More details about Asian and European markets follows in succeeding paragraphs.

The Nikkei just couldn't resist that 15,000 level. It spent the morning session gyrating in 70-point swaths, trying to reach 15,000 again, with exporters leading morning gains. By the opening of the afternoon session, it was through coiling, and it climbed throughout the session, closing higher by 258.35 points or 1.74%, at 15,130.50. The Ministry of Finance released figures that showed that overseas investors were again net buyers of Japanese shares. In Japan, the central bank and the government are not reconciling their varying stances on when rates might be changed, with the central bank's Iwata last night uttering statements more hawkish than the government wants to hear. Iwata suggests that CPI minus oil and public utility charges be watched, while the government wants the GDP deflator to govern when rates are raised. Central bank member Mizuno chimed in, too, saying that monetary policy should be flexible and that there shouldn't be too many restrictions on when quantitative easing policy should be stopped.

Semi-related issues contributed to the Nikkei's rise, with Advantest Corp. leading the index's gains. GS made encouraging statements about Japanese shippers, and those stocks gained, too.

Other Asian markets were mixed. The Taiwan Weighted lost 0.38%, but South Korea's Kospi gained 0.66%. In South Korea, exports rose 13% in November to a record number. The consumer price index rose 2.4% from year-ago level, but fell 0.7% from October, showing that inflation eased. Samsung participated in the rise in semi-related issues in Asia although it had yesterday admitted in a U.S. court that it had participated in a global price-fixing conspiracy. Singapore's Straits Times rose 0.47%, and Hong Kong's Hang Seng climbed 0.88%. Hong Kong's Cathay Pacific Airways revealed its largest aircraft order ever made, with that order likely to make Boeing investors happy. China's Shanghai Composite fell 0.05%.

European markets climb ahead of an ECB decision this morning. The ECB is expected to raise rates for the first time in five years. President Trichet has signaled the ECB's intention to raise rates, with most expecting a quarter-point move although a half-point move isn't ruled out. The October unemployment figures for the Eurozone showed the number steady at 8.3%. In information that was leaked before its official release, Germany's unemployment figures showed a decline in jobless numbers in November, with the unemployment rate now at 11.5%. The decline in jobless numbers was better than expected. PMI numbers for November are being released throughout Europe, with Italy's and Spain's rising, France's dropping as a likely result of the recent riots but remaining above 50, and Germany's easing but remaining above 50. In the U.K., the CBI Distributive trades survey was weaker than expected, at -35 against expectations for -23.

Gains in energy-related issues helped the European bourses this morning. M&A action captures attention, with South African insurer Old Mutual changing its offer for Skandia Insurance so that the offer is more likely to be accepted, and with Prudential saying that it will buy out the shares of online bank EGG that it doesn't already own. In addition, Crucell has made a big for Swiss biotech Berna. Nokia announced plans to expand production of mobile devices in China. In other news, the FTSE 100's lone tech, Sage, fell, but today it rebounds after its earnings report.

As of 6:37 EST, the FTSE 100 had gained 25.70 points or 0.47%, to trade at 5,448.90. The CAC 40 gained 33.34 points or 0.73%, to trade at 4,600.75. The DAX gained 29.35 points or 0.57%, to trade at 5,222.75.

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