Option Investor
Archive
HAVING TROUBLE PRINTING?
Printer friendly version
Jeff Bailey : 12/5/2005 11:23:44 PM

Program Trading Levels for Tuesday ... HL Camp & Company has their computers set for program buying at $+2.26 and set for program selling at $+0.39.

OI Technical Staff : 12/5/2005 9:59:59 PM

The Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

Disclaimer: Stocks discussed in the Market Monitor are for educational purposes only and any analysis is not meant to imply a recommendation for or against that stock. The analysts in this forum as on any other website are prohibited by the SEC from giving any specific advice to ANY individual trader. All information posted is for ALL readers and is not meant to be directed to any individual. Our analysts cannot answer any email questions regarding any specific stock. Please do not ask and please do not take offense if requests are denied.

Results posted in the Market Monitor are hypothetical and OIN does not claim that any reader achieved these exact results. Due to the lag time between research, writing, posting, uploading, reading and execution there will be differences between the actual signal given and the fill achieved by the reader. Fills may be better or worse but in most cases they will be different. The writers will make every effort to give advance notice of intended signals and indicate potential price targets. Your individual results may vary depending on your activity level and aggressiveness. This forum is intended as an education service only. Trading involves risk and should not be attempted by anyone not ready to accept this risk. By acting on any signal in this forum you agree and personally accept this risk.

Jeff Bailey : 12/5/2005 7:13:47 PM

New York Stock Exchange ... DJ - Archipelago deal gets "favorable" IRS ruling.

Jeff Bailey : 12/5/2005 7:07:21 PM

Venezualan pipeline repaired to "full capacity." ... DJ - A major oil pipeline damaged by a blast on the eve of Venezuela's elections has been repaired and is again supplying the nation's largest refinery, officials said Monday.

The Ule-Amuay pipeline, which supplies more than a third of oil to Venezuela's giant Paraguana refining complex, was "operating in full capacity" after repairs were completed ahead of schedule, the state oil company Petroleos de Venezuela, S.A., or PDVSA, said in a statement.

The pipeline, comprised of two tubes together transporting 400,000 barrels a day of crude, was paralyzed Saturday, the night before congressional elections.

Officials blamed the explosion on government opponents attempting to disrupt the poll.

A smaller tube carrying 150,000 barrels a day was repaired Sunday, but the larger one with a capacity of 250,000 barrels a day took longer due to more extensive damage. Both tubes became operational again Monday, PDVSA said.

Jeff Bailey : 12/5/2005 6:59:03 PM

Bank of Korea ... DJ Headlines ...

Expects 2006 exports +10.8% vs. +10.1% for 2005.

2006 capital investment likely +5.4% vs. +3.9% in 2005.

2006 private consumption likely +4.5% vs. +3.0% for 2005.

Sees 2006 core inflation at +2.7%.

Sees 2006 CPI likely +3.0% vs. +2.7% in 2005.

Ups 2005 GDP growth target to +3.9% from +3.8%.

Expects 2006 GDP growth rate to accelerate to 5.0%.

MSCI S. Korea Index Fund (AMEX:EWY) $41.62 +0.21% Link

Fund info at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 12/5/2005 6:14:28 PM

Vail Resorts (MTN) $38.11 -0.88% ... Saying its Vail mountain resort set a new snowfall record, having accumulated 141.25 inches so far this season. Prior record of 140 inches was set during the 1985-1986 ski season.

9Live Vail Camera Link as the sun sets west of the Lion's Head gondala.

Jeff Bailey : 12/5/2005 6:08:07 PM

Delta Air Lines (DALRQ) $0.52 -5.45% ... November traffic down 0.4%. November load factor 73.8% vs. 73.4% a year earlier. Domestic travel down 2.4% in November, while international traffic rose 7.3%.

Jeff Bailey : 12/5/2005 6:05:36 PM

General Motors (GM) $22.13 +0.22% Link ... Auto maker said it will permanently shut down its Oklahoma City sports utility vehicle plant on February 3 as it begins to implement a deep restructuring plan aimed at cutting production capacity in North America.

GM also said that the Bank of Nova Scotia plans to buy up to $20 billion of GMAC U.S. car loans during the next five years. The bank will make an initial purchase of $3 billion this month.

Jeff Bailey : 12/5/2005 5:47:27 PM

Deutsche Bank ups PC forecasts ... DJ - Citing lower prices, Deutsche Bank said it sees demand for personal computers unabated.

Jeff Bailey : 12/5/2005 5:44:29 PM

KD Home (KBH) & Shaw Group (SGR) to form venture ... DJ - KB Home and Shaw Group form venture to build homes in areas affected by Katrina, starting in New Orleans. Venture will also look for land in Baton Rouge and will later consider Mississippi.

Jeff Bailey : 12/5/2005 5:41:38 PM

Fed Watchdog says no overtightening risks ... DJ - A group of academics and other private-sector economists known as the Shadow Open Market Committee says the Federal Reserve should continue its tightening campaign to quell inflationary pressures.

Jeff Bailey : 12/5/2005 5:39:10 PM

Closing U.S. Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 12/5/2005 5:39:03 PM

Altera (ALTR) $18.30 -4.18% Link ... Ticks higher at $18.56 after the company reiterates Q4 sales projections and lifts gross margin view.

ALTR expecting Q4 sales of $286 million to $297 million, compared to consensus of $291.8 million.

Expects gross margins to edge up to 66.5% from prior expectations of 66%. The latest estimate includes a slightly smaller gain on the sale of written off inventory than its prior tally. The company also said that operating expenses will be about $114 million, higher than the prior estimate of $111 million.

Jeff Bailey : 12/5/2005 4:59:18 PM

Buenos Aires ... DJ - Country's subway system was paralyzed by a strike Monday with workers demanding a 58% pay hike.

Local news wires reported that workers are demanding a 58% increase on their basic salaries of 900 pesos ($299.50).

Jeff Bailey : 12/5/2005 4:54:07 PM

Closing Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 12/5/2005 4:39:21 PM

Pivot Matrix for Tuesday found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 12/5/2005 4:08:33 PM

Input/Output (IO) $7.97 +0.88% Link ... Announces the departure of its Chief Financial Officer, Mike Kirksey.

Mr. Kirksey informed the company of his plans to accept a recent offer to join another company. Mr. Kirksey plans to transition over the next few weeks in order to provide the needed continuity in the implementation of his responsibilities. The company has already begun an internal and external search and is confident of a smooth transition over the next several weeks.

Jeff Bailey : 12/5/2005 4:04:27 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 12/5/2005 3:57:15 PM

You know, the OEX never really got far above the 30-minute 100/130-ema's today and it was closing 30-minute periods at or below the 30-minute 21-ema. I don't see anything here that tells me definitive next direction, unfortunately, but that big triangle keeps narrowing now.

Jeff Bailey : 12/5/2005 3:59:22 PM

RMK High Income Fund (RMH) $17.48 -1.18% Link ... Board of Directors declare a special one-time dividend of $0.10 per share and a capital gain distribution of $0.68 per share payable on December 20, 2005 to shareholders of record on December 12, 2005. Ex-dividend date for the special dividend and capital gain distribution is December 8, 2005.

RMK High Income Fund, Inc. is a diversified, closed-end investment company seeking a high level of current income with capital appreciation as a secondary investment objective.

RMH recently declared three monthly dividends of $0.15 per share.

Linda Piazza : 12/5/2005 3:54:50 PM

Barring a strong downthrust in the last few minutes of trading, it does not look as if the SOX is going to close the day below the midpoint of Thursday's tall white candle. So, while today's development was so far not a bullish one, it still fails to confirm an evening-star reversal pattern. The SOX would have had to have closed below 495.95 before I would consider that confirmed.

Jeff Bailey : 12/5/2005 3:54:22 PM

Analog Devices (ADI) $39.21 -1.33% Link ... CEO gets $274,805 bonus for second-half fiscal 2005.

Linda Piazza : 12/5/2005 3:51:08 PM

Well, the OEX attempted a breakout of today's neutral triangle during the previous 15-minute period, but fell back inside the triangle by the end of the period. It's trying again, falling back again as I type, although perhaps not all the way into the triangle. There's just no resolution as yet.

Jonathan Levinson : 12/5/2005 3:47:18 PM

QQQQ's 30 min cycle downphase has stalled again in the current narrow range, but channel support appears at 41.40 should the current 41.63 low fail if/when tested. On a short cycle basis, the current bounce looks corrective, following a series of corrective up and downphases since midmorning. However, considering the sharp drop beneath Thursday-Friday's range, followthrough has been minimal. Direction remains up for grabs on the daily chart, with the steep rising trend not violated and the daily cycles holding in suspended animation on the cusp of an overdue downphase. Link

Linda Piazza : 12/5/2005 3:39:46 PM

The OEX attempts an upside breakout out of today's version of its neutral triangle. This needs to be confirmed by a 15-minute close above 578.85-579.06 next resistance. Above that is the resistance from the broadening formation, from 579.58 (best-fit version) to 579.82. OEX at 578.58 as I type.

Linda Piazza : 12/5/2005 3:33:23 PM

Advdec line trying to break higher. The VIX eases a little. The OEX is still within the neutral triangle that it's been forming all day today. Market-on-close orders will come soon. Perhaps that will change something.

Linda Piazza : 12/5/2005 3:27:08 PM

The advdec line is showing slightly more strength with respect to a Keltner resistance line now at -1925 than it had earlier today. It's trying to break above it, although there's still about 5 minutes left in the period, so it's not clear if it will be able to do so. The advdec line is now at -1907.

Linda Piazza : 12/5/2005 3:20:18 PM

The OEX is now churning around within a small neutral triangle that's forming within a larger one that's forming. Both appear to have supporting trendlines at about 577.40 right now, which would be one reason among others that there's some attempt to hold the OEX above that line. The top trendline for the small triangle is at about 578.50 and for the larger one, at about 579.56. The OEX is at 577.99, in the middle of the mess.

Linda Piazza : 12/5/2005 3:15:35 PM

VIX at 11.67, confirming that continuation-form inverse H&S, if it can stay above 11.66.

Jonathan Levinson : 12/5/2005 3:14:09 PM

GOOG running lower here, -10.10 at a session low of 407.60. QQQQ is returning to the range low within an ongoing short cycle upphase. There's very little to read within the 41.65-.80 range, similar to what we saw for all of Friday. Breadth remains negative a -2.2:1 for the Nasdaq. Link

Linda Piazza : 12/5/2005 3:12:05 PM

New OEX descending trendline off the day's low is at 577.40, with Keltner resistance just below that at 577.21 on five-minute closes. OEX at 577.68 as I type.

Jeff Bailey : 12/5/2005 3:11:56 PM

03:00 Internals found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 12/5/2005 3:10:58 PM

VIX still moving up toward the neckline of the continuation-form inverse H&S it's been forming. The high of the day was 11.66, so the VIX would have to break above and stay above that to confirm the formation. VIX at 11.63 as I type.

Jeff Bailey : 12/5/2005 3:03:59 PM

Matrix Service (MTRX) $9.75 +3.5% ...

Jeff Bailey : 12/5/2005 3:02:53 PM

Apache Corp. (APA) $68.30 +0.17% ... off session highs of $69.46.

Linda Piazza : 12/5/2005 3:02:45 PM

The VIX still works on that potential continuation-form inverse H&S I mentioned in my 2:13:20 post. I mentioned then that it lacked a right shoulder. It tried to break out without forming one, but now has dropped into a right shoulder. Bears don't want to see that formation invalidated and would like the VIX to remain above about 11.53 on five-minute closes, and then would like to see it push to a new high to confirm the formation. VIX at 11.59 as I type.

Jeff Bailey : 12/5/2005 3:02:06 PM

03:00 Market Watch found at this Link ... Nat. Gas also reversing earlier gains.

Linda Piazza : 12/5/2005 2:57:06 PM

The BIX broke higher after dropping to test last week's low. A break below that low would have left the BIX vulnerable to the 101.25-103 zone, and it appears that either there was some real interest in buying or just real interest in keeping the financials from dropping too low. I know that bulls absolutely do not want GE dropping below 35.25 and especially not back below the 200-sma at 35.07. They don't want GE dropping into that big gap higher from 11/18. GE at 35.74 as I type.

Linda Piazza : 12/5/2005 2:50:36 PM

My charts are a huge mess with trendlines everywhere, with regression channels that widen into broadening formations, with bearish or bullish divergence marked, with none of it seeming to matter. This is an unnatural environment and be careful with your positions.

Linda Piazza : 12/5/2005 2:48:55 PM

So, when it looked as if markets might drop, "they" sent the financials higher again. C, LEH, GE all gained. The BIX shot up. The BKX did, too, so they should be watched to see if they're slapped back again.

Jonathan Levinson : 12/5/2005 2:46:06 PM

Volume breadth is up to -1.55:1 on the NYSE, -2.1:1 on the Nasdaq.

Linda Piazza : 12/5/2005 2:45:06 PM

And the VIX falls back into its consolidation pattern after attempting to break out to the upside. Is anyone else tired of this?

Jonathan Levinson : 12/5/2005 2:44:36 PM

QQQQ has taken a quick bounce and regained 72 SMA resistance, stalling the sideways 30-min channel and turning the short cycle indicators back up. Volume has been quite light since the morning selloff, and Friday's lighter-than-average 72.9M shares should remain heavier than today's total at the current rate. So far, just 49.4M QQQQs have traded. Link

Linda Piazza : 12/5/2005 2:41:51 PM

Advdec line's resistance at -1180 on 15-minute closes, with the advdec line at -1938 as I type.

Linda Piazza : 12/5/2005 2:40:24 PM

Next resistance for the OEX is at 578.57-578.90 on 15-minute closes.

Linda Piazza : 12/5/2005 2:38:39 PM

LEH also just reached a new high for the day during this 30-minute period, but it's pulled back a little off that high. Both are breaking above their 30-minute 100/130-ema's after breaking below them late last week. LEH may be at the top of a rising regression channel on the 30-minute chart, however.

Linda Piazza : 12/5/2005 2:35:47 PM

GE at a new high for the day.

Jonathan Levinson : 12/5/2005 2:35:47 PM

Crude oil closed +.625 at 59.95, off a high of 60.825: Link

Jeff Bailey : 12/5/2005 2:34:43 PM

Securities Broker/Dealer (XBD.X) 196.19 +0.03% ... reverse earlier losses. Regain WEEKLY Pivot (195.79).

Linda Piazza : 12/5/2005 2:34:19 PM

The SOX has been testing that Keltner support now at 496 on 15-minute closes, nudging it lower, toward next support at 494.69. SOX at 496.35 as I type. Next resistance at 497.69 on 15-minute closes.

Linda Piazza : 12/5/2005 2:30:55 PM

The OEX has narrowed its broadening formation in which it fell off the 11/23 high into a triangle. Let's see: should we consider that a triangle at the bottom of the decline off the 11/23 high, in which case the breakdown should be to the downside, or a triangle formed after the rise off the October low, in which case an upside break might be expected? If you traded through November, you know why I'm saying I wouldn't count on anything at all. Just watch, and then be prepared to be wrong even if the OEX appears to break one direction or the other.

Jeff Bailey : 12/5/2005 2:30:52 PM

Continuous Unleaded ($GASO) $0.01 box size at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 12/5/2005 2:28:55 PM

December Unleaded (hu06f) $1.60 -0.62% (30-min. delayed) ... down a penny here. Reverses from morning high of $1.64.

Linda Piazza : 12/5/2005 2:28:48 PM

No new low for the OEX yet. It's still testing the 30-minute 100/130-ema's, now at 578.23 and 577.31, respectively, with the OEX at 577.35.

Jonathan Levinson : 12/5/2005 2:27:35 PM

QQQQ has yet to break rising trendline support off the Oct. low. A break below 41.55 would do it, but so far the short cycle downphase has been only slightly stronger than the previous upphase. This range along the lows has been as difficult as that along the highs last week. Daily QQQQ candles at this Link

Jane Fox : 12/5/2005 2:25:49 PM

VIX and ES are not in sync today but I do read the VIX as bearish. Link

Linda Piazza : 12/5/2005 2:24:26 PM

I think the SOX has to close beneath 495.95, the midpoint of Thursday's range, before there's a confirmed evening-star formation on its daily chart. The lower it closed below that, the better it would be for confirmation's sake, but then there's that big gap from Thursday morning, too. The SOX is currently at 496.57, and a close above that midpoint of Thursday's tall white candle would not give me enough confirmation yet that the SOX were ready to pull back to retest that gap or the rising 10-sma.

Linda Piazza : 12/5/2005 2:18:45 PM

Minimal new low on the SOX. Next support at 496.13 on 15-minute closes, then at 494.64. SOX at 496.33 as I type.

Jane Fox : 12/5/2005 2:17:57 PM

AD volume continues to make new daily lows and although the AD line is not making new daily lows as well, at -950 it is bearish enough to support the bearish AD volume.

Linda Piazza : 12/5/2005 2:17:49 PM

The VIX broke higher but now drifts back to retest the breakout level, at about 11.60-11.61. VIX at 11.62 as I type.

Linda Piazza : 12/5/2005 2:16:22 PM

For those who aren't trading crude, but want to keep a watch on how it's impacting trade, you'll probably want to know something about the hours it trades. For example, the 2:30 close of open outcry trading is shortly upon us, but electronic trading opens at 3:15. Here's a link to the part of the Nymex site providing trading hours: Link

Jeff Bailey : 12/5/2005 2:14:17 PM

02:00 Internals found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 12/5/2005 2:13:19 PM

Watching the VIX to see if it breaks higher again. It's now at a slighly descending trendline off the day's high, but also at Keltner resistance, with both at about 11.61. Needs to move above the day's high of 11.63 and stay above that to confirm a new breakout. The pattern looks like a potential continuation-form inverse H&S, but, if so, it still needs a right shoulder.

Jonathan Levinson : 12/5/2005 2:10:48 PM

Volume breadth -1.75:1 on the NYSE, -2.15:1 on the Nasdaq as QQQQ's short cycle rolls over, burying the wavelet cycle which reverses from below its midpoint. Session low is 8 cents below: Link

Linda Piazza : 12/5/2005 2:10:06 PM

SOX coming down to test its low. Since my 12:58:22 post, the SOX has chopped around enough to soften the Keltner support, so that it's possible that the SOX could drop to 494.62-496.24 before finding next support. SOX at 496.89 as I type.

Linda Piazza : 12/5/2005 2:08:51 PM

Bears want to see that new low of the day on the OEX. OEX at 577.48 as I type.

Jane Fox : 12/5/2005 2:06:11 PM

AD volume to new daily lows so any bullishness you may be seeing I think will dissipate.

Jeff Bailey : 12/5/2005 2:03:48 PM

02:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 12/5/2005 2:03:16 PM

Back. The OEX did break the support of its bear flag, but it hasn't confirmed by a new low. Right now, resistance looks stronger than support, suggesting a possible move down toward 577.54 or perhaps toward 576.84 support on 15-minute closes.

Jonathan Levinson : 12/5/2005 1:56:02 PM

QQQQ's short cycle upphase is looking very tired as a wavelet cycle upphase kicks off. That should be the last push provided that 41.80 holds, following which the next short cycle downphase should confirm. Compared with the decline this morning, the bounce has been anemic and corrective. Link

Jeff Bailey : 12/5/2005 1:57:47 PM

Question ... Jeff: Could you tell me what the weekly pivot levels are for the January Natural Gas Contract?

Reply: My QCharts' WEEKLY Pivot Levels are $10.24, $12.09, Piv= $13.03, $14.88, $15.82.

Linda Piazza : 12/5/2005 1:45:24 PM

Stepping away for a few minutes.

Jonathan Levinson : 12/5/2005 1:39:02 PM

Stepping away for a few minutes.

Linda Piazza : 12/5/2005 1:37:47 PM

Advdec line still not turning down significantly.

Linda Piazza : 12/5/2005 1:34:59 PM

The OEX is front-running the advdec line again. The advdec line isn't dropping much yet. Waiting to see if it follows the OEX lower. Want to see some corroboration between the two.

Linda Piazza : 12/5/2005 1:33:43 PM

Was that a lower high test on the OEX? So far, the OEX has not even touched the rising trendline off the day's low, much less violated it or confirmed that violation by breaking to a new low. Oops, I was still typing that when the OEX moved down to test that rising trendline, at about 578.

Jonathan Levinson : 12/5/2005 1:25:00 PM

Session low for 10-year notes at 108 15/64, TNX +5.6 bps at 4.575%. IRX is up 1 bp at 3.902%. QQQQ continues to hold right on 72 SMA, currently at 41.80, as the short cycle rises choppily. Link

Jonathan Levinson : 12/5/2005 1:33:11 PM

Headline:

1:19pm BUSH: TAX CUTS HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO ECONOMIC GROWTH

1:21pm BUSH: CONGRESS NEEDS TO MAKE TAX CUTS PERMANENT

1:29pm BUSH REPEATS CALL FOR ENERGY EXPLORATION IN ALASKA REFUGE

Linda Piazza : 12/5/2005 1:20:31 PM

The ascending trendline off the OEX's low of the day, the supporting trendline of the possible bear flag, is now at about 578.00. The OEX is at 578.30. If it should descend further, watch the test of the flag's support to see if it bounces the OEX or if it's breached to the downside. A downside brak would need to be confirmed by a new low.

Jeff Bailey : 12/5/2005 1:20:11 PM

CBOE Oil Index (OIX.X) 540.35 +1.39% Link ... Gets the trade at 540.00. Showing conventional 4-point box scale per dorseywright.com, which is the scale most institutions will view.

APA $69.42 +1.81% ... also a session high. Please note, Friday's actual high was $68.29, not $69.22 as depicted by my earlier QCharts post (11:58:34).

Linda Piazza : 12/5/2005 1:14:52 PM

The OEX turns lower within its latest bear flag climb, but it hasn't broken below the flag's support and it certainly hasn't confirmed by a new low of the day.

Jonathan Levinson : 12/5/2005 1:13:48 PM

Volume breadth -1.5:1 on the NYSE, -1.95:1 on the Nasdaq.

Jeff Bailey : 12/5/2005 1:12:00 PM

01:00 Internals found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 12/5/2005 1:11:30 PM

Headline:

BUSH: U.S. ECONOMY IS STRONG

Linda Piazza : 12/5/2005 1:10:23 PM

Crude prices are now moving above the neckline of that former H&S on the chart, charging up toward the converging green 72-ema and pink 50-sma. The relevance of the 72-ema has been showing by recent tests. Will crude make it above it today or be stopped there again? Link

Jonathan Levinson : 12/5/2005 1:07:49 PM

Session high for Feb. 06 e-mini gold at 512 here, +4.90.

Jane Fox : 12/5/2005 1:08:22 PM

This is when the markets become non directional and choppy. We no longer have the stay short or stay out environment yet certainly not enough mo mo to go long so my advice is to stay out. Link

Jonathan Levinson : 12/5/2005 1:05:20 PM

Indirect bidders took 8.4B of the 34B of 13- and 26-week bills auctioned today, a respectable 25% participation. The 13-week bills sold for 3.93% yielding 4.025% and fetching a 2.34 bid to cover ratio. The 26-week bills sold for 4.185% yielding 4.335%, bid to cover ratio 2.5. The 34B refunded $31.9 billion maturing for a net paydown of $2.09 billion.

Jeff Bailey : 12/5/2005 1:03:46 PM

01:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 12/5/2005 1:02:24 PM

Session high for crude at 60.725, holding above its unfilled gap above descending daily trendline resistance, the first such break since the August high. 30 tick chart at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 12/5/2005 1:01:07 PM

S&P 100 Index (OEX.X) ... Top 25 market cap weighted components found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 12/5/2005 12:58:22 PM

On a Keltner basis, the SOX looks as if it's building support--not so much that it can't come back to retest the day's low, but enough so that it looks as if the SOX might not drop too much below that low over the very short term without a real washout kind of reaction. Resistance looks as if it's building, too, although perhaps not yet as strong as the support. So, over the very near term, the SOX looks as if it could chop around a bit longer betwee the day's low and the current price, or perhaps even attempt an assault at 500 or 504 again. From this vantage point, it looks as if one of those resistance levels should hold. SOX

Jonathan Levinson : 12/5/2005 12:57:46 PM

Ten year note yiels are back down to a 4.2 bp gain at 4.561%. Awaiting the 13-week and 26-week bill auction results in the next few minutess. IRX is down to a .8 bp gain at 3.9%.

Linda Piazza : 12/5/2005 12:53:56 PM

Subscriber Denise C. points out that crude has risen by $1.08, to $60.40.

Linda Piazza : 12/5/2005 12:47:00 PM

OEX at next resistance, at 579.16 on five-mintue closes, at 579.00 on 15-minute closes. If the OEX gets pas this, it's likely headed up to test that descending trendline off the 11/23 high. OEX at 578.91 as I type. The advdec line also tests important resistance, with the advdec line at -1852 as I type, QCharts value.

Jonathan Levinson : 12/5/2005 12:44:14 PM

QQQQ approaches declining 72 SMA resistance for the first time since the first half hour, currently at 41.82. So far, the short cycle upphase is looking wimpy, but a break above that key level could add some power: Link

Jeff Bailey : 12/5/2005 12:41:28 PM

Bank of America (BAC) $46.24 +0.23% ... session high. Looks to have been on the "buy program" list.

Jonathan Levinson : 12/5/2005 12:40:15 PM

Volume breadth is up to -1.6:1 on the NYSE, -1.95:1 on the Nasdaq.

Linda Piazza : 12/5/2005 12:39:41 PM

Double top on the VIX? There was bearish divergence as the 11.63 high was retested and now the VIX falls away, now at 11.51. Bears woul dlike to see the 15-minute 100/130-ema's hold on any retest, with those at 11.39 and 11.41, respectively, although they'd rather not see the VIX drop even that low.

Jeff Bailey : 12/5/2005 12:38:02 PM

Buy Program Premium ... DIA $108.41, SPX 1,261.80, QQQQ $41.76

Jane Fox : 12/5/2005 12:37:50 PM

Too funny no sooner did I say how bearish the ADs were and we get a buy program TICKs +800.

Linda Piazza : 12/5/2005 12:37:36 PM

The SOX tests the 15-minute 10-sma. All day Thurday and early Friday, this average bounced the SOX. The SOX fell below it about midday on Friday and then wove back and forth across it. This is the SOX's first real test of that average today, with the average at 498.25 and the SOX right there, at 498.25. This would be important on a 15-minute close, of course.

Jane Fox : 12/5/2005 12:37:12 PM

Even though the AD line looks to be recuperating don't get fooled into any longs. At -1000 the AD line still very bearish and of course the AD volume is very bearish as well. Link

Linda Piazza : 12/5/2005 12:32:36 PM

Since breaking below the 15-minute outer Keltner channel line, the advdec line has been trending up. I mentioned then that this was a dangerous point for bulls and bears, and that it was a time for bears to be careful about their stops while not necessarily a time for new bullish positions. The advdec line began trending higher again about the time that post was made. The move was expected, and it looks corrective, but it's going on far too long and the advdec line is climbing higher than bears would like to see it climb, so there's definitely some concern here that a real-deal bounce could get started. There's no definitive evidence of that, and next resistance near -2090 is about to be tested, but the longer the advdec line climbs, the more danger there is to bears. Advdec line at -2120 as I type.

Linda Piazza : 12/5/2005 12:26:12 PM

I'm not liking this coiling action. To keep the downside going in this environment, bulls needed to be scared to buy the dips. Plus, the current pullback stills fits with the possibility of an inverse H&S with a descending neckline, forming within the broadening formation in which the OEX pulled back from the 11/23 high. The OEX needs to drop low enough to invalidate that formation to give even short-term bears any comfort, much less intermediate-term ones. I think that would be all the way down at about 575.58. That mean, too, that zone near that 575.58 level should be considered strong potential support. OEX at 577.66 as I type.

Jonathan Levinson : 12/5/2005 12:24:10 PM

No traction on this wavelet pullback, QQQQ down to 41.706 with the wavelet oscillator (middle oscillator pane) approaching oversold territory. The potential short cycle bullish divergence is looking more likely if price doesn't make a quick dip below the 41.63 low. Link

Jeff Bailey : 12/5/2005 12:31:24 PM

Calpine (CPN) $0.21 -21.42% ... NYSE said today that it will delist CPN's shares. Stock will be moved to the pink sheets tomorrow.

CPN is today's most active stock.

Reuters story at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 12/5/2005 12:15:08 PM

Session low for 10-yr notes at 108 9/32, TNX +4.8 bps at 4.567%.

Jeff Bailey : 12/5/2005 12:14:52 PM

12:00 Internals found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 12/5/2005 12:12:21 PM

The OEX dropped back, not meeting the upside target of the inverse H&S. The OEX needs to drop to a new low for the day to give bears any comfort, however. There's that potential, but the advdec line needs to drop to a new low, too, and not break above -1600, although staying even lower than that would be better for the bearish case. Advdec line at -2308 as I type.

Jeff Bailey : 12/5/2005 12:06:59 PM

12:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 12/5/2005 11:58:34 AM

Apache Corp. (APA) $69.10 +1.33% ... Bar chart with conventional (BLUE) and bullish 38.2% (PINK) retracement at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 12/5/2005 11:57:10 AM

The wavelet cycle is topping here for QQQQ, against the upturn in the short cycle indicators. This could be the "Keene's Wave" 1-last push to complete the short cycle decline- if it bottoms at or above QQQQ 41.63. Below that level, if it fails, the 30 min cycle has declined to 41.50. Link

Linda Piazza : 12/5/2005 11:50:43 AM

The OEX coils, too, without having reached the upside target after confirming an inverse H&S. I'm wondering now if it's not trying to reform that inverse H&S, confirming the former right-shoulder into just a part of the head formation. So far, it's trading along the Keltner line at 578.05, not falling away and so confirming it as resistance and not climbing far and so confirming it as new support. The OEX is at 578.08.

Jane Fox : 12/5/2005 11:49:05 AM

I continue to have cable issues this morning.

Linda Piazza : 12/5/2005 11:47:56 AM

The SOX coils at the bottom of today's decline. Usually this would be considered a continuation patternand the likely direction of the break would be to the downside, but lately I just don't trust anything that has the word "downside" attached to it.

Jonathan Levinson : 12/5/2005 11:43:13 AM

Headlines:

11:38am GERMANY'S DAX DOWN 0.8% AT 5,266 AT CLOSE

11:38am FRANCE'S CAC-40 SHEDS 0.3% TO 4,650

11:38am U.K.'S FTSE 100 FALLS 0.3% TO 5,510

Jeff Bailey : 12/5/2005 11:38:07 AM

APA / AMEX:XLE Option Montage at this Link ... APA Link

XLE Link

Jonathan Levinson : 12/5/2005 11:31:54 AM

Crude oil trades +.65 at 59.975, holding earlier levels above the opening gap. This is a break above the descending linear channel off the Katrina high: Link

Linda Piazza : 12/5/2005 11:30:43 AM

Depending on how the neckline is drawn for that confirmed inverse H&S on the OEX's five-mintue chart, the upside target is from 578.80-579.08. the OEX is at 578.15 as I type.

Jane Fox : 12/5/2005 11:29:32 AM

VIX is confirming this bearishness. Link

Linda Piazza : 12/5/2005 11:28:38 AM

The OEX has confirmed its inverse H&S on the bottom of its five-minute chart. It has also at least temporarily moved above 15-minute Keltner resistance at 578.07 on 15-minute closes. If the OEX can move past that resistance on 15-minute closes, next resistance up to about 579.18 on 15-minute closes and then at the top of the broadening formation, just over 580. The OEX pulled back a little as I typed, and is now at 578.08.

Jeff Bailey : 12/5/2005 11:27:19 AM

DIA / DJX Option Montage at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 12/5/2005 11:24:51 AM

Volume breadth -1.9:1 on the NYSE, -2.2:1 on the Nasdaq.

Linda Piazza : 12/5/2005 11:22:57 AM

Big drop today in the TRAN. It's now below the rising trendline off the October 19 low. That trendline crosses at about 4122 currently and the TRAN steepened its dive when it fell through that line. The TRAN is at 4070.98 as I type.

Jeff Bailey : 12/5/2005 11:20:29 AM

SPY / SPX Option Montage with VIX.X 11.57 +5.08% at this Link

Linda Piazza : 12/5/2005 11:20:19 AM

The OEX pushed higher than bears might have liked, and now sets up a potential inverse H&S at the bottom of its drop. It's falling back now into the right shoulder level. A new low of the day would of course invalidate the formation, while a ove above about 577.95 (or perhaps a little lower) would confirm it. OEX at 577.36 as I type, with the low of the day 576.86. The OEX has so far not moved above 15-minute Keltner resistance at 577.97 on 15-minute closes.

Tab Gilles : 12/5/2005 11:18:45 AM

Nasdaq100 ($NDX) Link Link Link

Linda Piazza : 12/5/2005 11:17:32 AM

SOX so far finding resistance where bears would hope. Bulls, you have a decision to make. I'd advised late last week that the SOX's gap higher could be an exhaustion gap and I advised then that you think about your semi-related longs and decide where you wanted stops to be set. We haven't seen the SOX trade below that gap, a confirming sign that the gap could have been an exhaustion gap, and I'm wondering if that would even happen before Intel's update this week, but just adhere to those stops you had enough warning to set. You set those during calmer times. Not all exhaustion gaps lead to a major downturn. Some lead only into consolidation.

Jeff Bailey : 12/5/2005 11:16:29 AM

11:00 Internals found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 12/5/2005 11:10:23 AM

QQQQ's short cycle indicators have stalled in oversold territory with the wavelet turning up, also in oversold. A failure to bounce further from 41.74 will result in the start of a short cycle trending move- very bearish. But 41.60 support looks to hold here, and a break above will target 72 SMA resistance at 41.92, confirming a new short cycle upphase. Link

Linda Piazza : 12/5/2005 11:10:22 AM

The SOX more than met its downside target for the H&S it confirmed this morning. It's bouncing now, now at 498.47. SOX bears would like to see 498.48-501.68 resistance hold on five-minute closes. The SOX is at 498.34 as I type.

Jeff Bailey : 12/5/2005 11:07:15 AM

11:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 12/5/2005 11:06:51 AM

And there's the bounce, at least in the OEX! I knew it. Bears want to see 15-minute closes beneath the Keltner resistance at 578.08. The advdec line is not bouncing, and so the OEX is again front-running the bounce. It's going to need confirmation from the advdec line to sustain a move.

Tab Gilles : 12/5/2005 11:04:52 AM

DELL Up today on upgrade from Raymond James. Testing 50-ma. Link

Jeff Bailey : 12/5/2005 11:02:35 AM

British Pound (Continuous) at this Link

Linda Piazza : 12/5/2005 11:02:11 AM

Advdec line still following the 15-minute support lower. It's actually broken a little below the lower Keltner channel on that chart. This is a dangerous point for both bulls and bears. The advdec line doesn't often stay below that lower Keltner channel line, so it's obvious where the danger to the bears' lies, but when it does, as it did October 5, it's obvious that bulls can hurt, too. This is a time for bears to begin being careful about their stops, but it's not necessarily a time for the bulls to try the waters just yet. (That's probably a signal for a strong bounce to begin as soon as this post is uploaded. Smile.)

Linda Piazza : 12/5/2005 10:55:58 AM

The OEX continues to test 15-minute Keltner support at 577.06 on 15-minutes closes. The OEX is at 577.15 as I type. Five-minute Keltner resistance now at 577.75 continues to hold on five-minute closes, and the OEX just broke down out of the lastest little bear flag on the five-minute chart, with the new low of the day confirming that breakdown. So far, so good, but bears have to be nervous.

Jeff Bailey : 12/5/2005 10:55:07 AM

And sometimes Linda, Chancellor's of the Exchequer can be way off base. Mr. Brown had previously forecast growth ranging from 3% to 3.5%.

Jane Fox : 12/5/2005 10:54:28 AM

The ADs continue to tell you to stay short or stay out. Link

Jonathan Levinson : 12/5/2005 10:53:21 AM

Session lows across the board. The wavelet upturn is aborting early, just as it did on the bounce to 42.00. If the 41.60 support level holds, a bounce would result in a bullish wavelet divergence on that lower price low: Link

Jane Fox : 12/5/2005 10:53:05 AM

TICKS -800

Jeff Bailey : 12/5/2005 10:51:45 AM

Goldcorp (GG) $20.19 -1.18% ... retraces 38.2% of its October low ($17.49) to recent November high ($21.85).

Linda Piazza : 12/5/2005 10:44:36 AM

Wow, Jonathan. (See Jonathan's 10:41:33 post.) I was reading this morning that Brown was expected to cut the GDP forecast, but expectations weren't for a cut to a level so low.

That data shows how disconnected the stock market can become from economic realities, too. The FTSE 100 has been running up, hitting new recent highs again last week, all the while that some troubling economic data has been coming in and the expectations were for a lowering of that forecast.

Linda Piazza : 12/5/2005 10:42:33 AM

Advdec line isn't rising with the SOX and the OEX. The advdec line has dropped all the way to 15-minute lowest Keltner support. Bears would now like to see the advdec line hug that 15-minute support, now near the advdec line's -2256 current level, or perhaps oscillate between that and 7-minute resistance, now strongest at -1500 to -1300, but existing lower, too.

Jonathan Levinson : 12/5/2005 10:41:32 AM

Headline:

10:36am U.K. BROWN: CUTS GDP FORECAST TO 1.75% IN 2005

10:36am U.K. BROWN: 2005 A 'TOUGH' YEAR FOR U.K. ECONOMY

10:35am U.K. BROWN: U.K. INFLATION LOWER THAN THE U.S., E.U.

10:37am U.K. BROWN: PREVIOUS 2005 U.K. GDP VIEW WAS 3% TO 3.5%

10:39am U.K. BROWN: 2006 GDP TO GROW 2% TO 2.5%

Jonathan Levinson : 12/5/2005 10:40:47 AM

Friday's 41.90-.95 QQQQ range low is now resistance on this wavelet bounce trying to kick off: Link

Linda Piazza : 12/5/2005 10:40:10 AM

The SOX has risen to test a resistance band from 499.95-501.70, on five-mintue closes, with the SOX at 500.44 as I type. Bears would like to see this resistance band hold, and they really don't want to see the SOX back above this morning's gap.

Jonathan Levinson : 12/5/2005 10:34:42 AM

The Fed announced an 11.75B overnight repo for a net 3.5B add for the day.

Linda Piazza : 12/5/2005 10:32:49 AM

So far, the OEX finds resistance just where bears wished, at Keltner resistance now from 577.84-577.99 on five-minute closes. It's also finding support at 577.18 on fifteen-minute closes, so there's a bull/bear battle going on here. OEX at 577.59 as I type.

Jonathan Levinson : 12/5/2005 10:32:39 AM

41.50 QQQQ is gap support from Thursday's open, below which Wednesday's range is in play to QQQQ 41.18. An impressive distribution job on Friday, with very few clues to give it away until today's sudden break below 41.90. Link

Jonathan Levinson : 12/5/2005 10:31:09 AM

Volume breadth is -2:1 on the NYSE, -2.3:1 on the Nasdaq- negative and weakening.

Linda Piazza : 12/5/2005 10:27:03 AM

I mentioned this morning that the downside target for the SOX's confirmed H&S was about 497.60. (See my 9:40:48 post.) The SOX low of the day has been 498.17, fairly close to that downside target, suggesting that bears have had enough short-term strength to confirm the formation and also send the SOX almost to the downside target. That increases the chance that the current bounce attempt off that low of the day might find resistance, perhaps at 500.07-501.77. SOX at 498.80.

Jonathan Levinson : 12/5/2005 10:26:50 AM

Ten year notes hold their losses, TNX up 3.6 bps at 4.555% here. 13-week bills are weakening, IRX now up 2.8 bps at 3.92%.

Linda Piazza : 12/5/2005 10:23:41 AM

OEX bouncing, as I thought it might. Bears want to see it find resistance from 577.97-578.25 on five-minute closes. OEX at 577.94 as I type.

Tab Gilles : 12/5/2005 10:20:52 AM

For those who didn't get a chance to read Jim's Market Wrap this weekend, I highly recommend so. His observations on the oil sector are excellent. Especially the fact on COT report record long positions...must read!

$DJUSEN daily & weekly Link Link

Linda Piazza : 12/5/2005 10:20:47 AM

OEX Keltner view: First from the five-minute perspective, because the OEX was adhering rather closely to the five-minute chart's S/R levels for two days. The OEX has broken beneath Keltner support at 578.04 on a five-minute closing basis, setting up a potential 576.78 downside target on that chart. However, there's potential Keltner support at 577.21 on 15-minute closes. Unless the OEX breaks soundly through that, it's likely to produce a bounce attempt, although I'm not sure how strong the attempt might be. OEX at 577.51 as I type, up a little from when I began this post.

Jane Fox : 12/5/2005 10:19:50 AM

My stats for the trades between 9:30 and 10:00 have just improved a bunch this morning.

Linda Piazza : 12/5/2005 10:17:41 AM

OEX now below 578, but now bears need to see it below last week's low, and specifically creating a 30-minute close beneath the Keltner line currently at 576.11. OEX at 577.50 as I type.

Jonathan Levinson : 12/5/2005 10:16:55 AM

QQQQ violates Friday's low and now tests Thursday's range as the short cycle indicators approach oversold territory. The 30/60 min cycle downphases have kicked in- justice delayed after Friday's tractionless drift. Link

Jeff Bailey : 12/5/2005 10:16:51 AM

10:00 Internals found at this Link

Friday's Closing Internals found at this Link

Jane Fox : 12/5/2005 10:16:48 AM

These are telling you stay short or stay out. A little different from last week. Link

Linda Piazza : 12/5/2005 10:12:42 AM

Advdec line still dropping, still presenting the possibility that it will follow the pattern from last Monday. Next support is at about -2200, if it continues dropping. It's now at -1930.

Linda Piazza : 12/5/2005 10:11:13 AM

SPX testing those 30-minute 100/130-ema's at 1261.67 and 1260.86, with the SPX at 1260.75 as I type.

Linda Piazza : 12/5/2005 10:09:34 AM

Benchmarking some numbers: The OEX's 10-sma is at 579.27, so the OEX is below that. The OEX is now testing the 30-minute 100/130-ema's, at 578.29 and 577.24, with those averages having provided support last last week, and with the OEX currently at 577.91. Last week's low was 574.55.

Jonathan Levinson : 12/5/2005 10:09:22 AM

QQQQ tests Friday's low here: Link

Jonathan Levinson : 12/5/2005 10:07:19 AM

Telephone call- stepping away.

Linda Piazza : 12/5/2005 10:06:18 AM

The SOX hasn't dropped below 500 yet, at 500.77 as I type, but its action remains in keeping with a potential morning-star reversal signal being produced today. We've got a whole lot of day left, however.

Jonathan Levinson : 12/5/2005 10:04:59 AM

Headline:

10:01am U.S. NOV. ISM PRICES PAID INDEX 74.2 VS. 78.0

Jonathan Levinson : 12/5/2005 10:04:47 AM

QQQQ drifts higher off its 41.95 low, so far just a wavelet bounce with a flaggy feel to it. The short cycle indicators continue their decline: Link

Linda Piazza : 12/5/2005 10:03:44 AM

The advdec line is trying to stabilize, showing bullish divergence with each swing low since Friday morning. It's at -1456 as I type. On a bounce, if the advdec line should manage one, bears would like to see it find resistance near a Keltner line now at -1123.46. The advdec is at -1512 as I type.

Jeff Bailey : 12/5/2005 10:01:51 AM

10:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 12/5/2005 10:01:33 AM

The OEX is bouncing from five-minute Keltner support as I thought it might. Right now, nothing has happened to change the OEX's consolidation pattern from late last week, with that consolidation roughly bounded by Keltner support at 578.27 on five-minute closes and resistance at 580.17 on five-minute closes. The OEX is at 578.55 as I type.

Jonathan Levinson : 12/5/2005 10:01:27 AM

Headlines:

U.S. NOV. ISM SERVICES INDEX 58.5% VS. 59.2% EXPECTED

Linda Piazza : 12/5/2005 9:57:29 AM

Thanks, Jane. (This is in reference to Jane's 9:51 and my 9:15 post.)

Linda Piazza : 12/5/2005 9:56:31 AM

The TRAN is below 4091.53, for the time at least confirming that it's giving up its leadership status in this rally. Here's the TRAN weekly chart that I've posted so many times over the last year. The top red horizontal line was the target after its inverse H&S confirmation. Note that until the TRAN is below the dashed top line, there's the potential that it's just pulling back to retest that former resistance. Link

Linda Piazza : 12/5/2005 9:53:45 AM

Advdec line at -1489 as I type. Without a strong spring up that leaves only a candle shadow behind, it has invalidated its potential inverse H&S, building since Thursday. On the 10-minute chart, there's a potential for support near here to hold, complete with tentative bullish divergence, so be aware of the possibility for a bounce if the advdec line can stabilize. The 15-minute shows the ptoential for much more downside, such as was produced on 11/28. That's just potential, however, and the OEX certainly isn't showing any includation to drop out of Friday's consolidation zone. It's possible we should expect an OEX bounce toward 579.03-579.56.

Jonathan Levinson : 12/5/2005 9:52:40 AM

No doubt, the end of session/overnight stop runner is frustrating in the extreme, and not bullish- but the fact remains that so far, the 30/60 min cycle downphases in progress for most of Friday have generated very poor traction. QQQQ needs to break Friday's low to make these downphases look more than just corrective.

Jane Fox : 12/5/2005 9:51:46 AM

Linda you have no idea how much you will be missed on the monitor. And thank you so much for the heads up on getting your infants tested.

Linda Piazza : 12/5/2005 9:46:53 AM

The OEX isn't falling out of the consolidation pattern from Friday. It needs to drop below 578.25 before much downside gets going, perhaps. OEX at 578.66 as I type, with five-minute support at 578.35.

Jeff Bailey : 12/5/2005 9:45:25 AM

Guidant (GDT) $67.89 +9.83% Link ... #2 most active after Boston Scientific (BSX) $25.80 -5.59% Link offered to pay about $25 billion for the medical device maker, topping what Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) $60.94 -0.50% Link agreed to pay by about $3 billion.

Linda Piazza : 12/5/2005 9:43:19 AM

The TRAN is currently dropping below the 30-minute 100/130-ema's that have been support through the month of November and through part of October, too. The drop below them is minimal so far, and the TRAN sometimes does print a few closes just below these before finally bouncing from them again. The 30-minute period hasn't closed, either.

Linda Piazza : 12/5/2005 9:40:47 AM

When gapping lower this morning, the SOX confirmed a H&S on its 15-minute chart. This had an ascending neckline that is now at about 504.87, if I've drawn it correctly. The downside target for that H&S is at about 497.60. Watching to see whether that target is met or not gives traders another clue into the SOX's behavior.

Linda Piazza : 12/5/2005 9:38:56 AM

There's a potential inverse H&S on the advdec line. I'd feel more comfortable even watching that if it had been produced during one day's pattern, but it's a pattern spanning several days. Still, bears would not like to see the advdec line much above about 460 and would instead like to see it drop below -1400. Advdec line now at -1178 as I type, QCharts value.

Linda Piazza : 12/5/2005 9:36:38 AM

The SOX is at 502.06 as I type, although my charts feel slow this morning. It has opened below Friday's close, if my charts are correct, in keeping with a potential reversal signal. If there should be a decline today, we should of course expect support at Thursday's open, the top of the gap, and at the 10-sma, near that level at 487.22.

Linda Piazza : 12/5/2005 9:35:09 AM

The TRAN is moving lower, still testing those 30-minute 100/130-ema's that it spent most of Friday testing. Those are at 4133 and 4122.49, respectively, with the TRAN at 4129.63.

Jonathan Levinson : 12/5/2005 9:34:44 AM

Volume breadth is -1.3:1 on the NYSE, -1.45:1 on the Nasdaq at the open.

Linda Piazza : 12/5/2005 9:33:30 AM

The OEX turns down from that broadening formation's upper resistance line. Bears want to see the OEX below 578, as a first step toward heading lower. The five-minute Keltner chart suggests that 578.46 might be support, however, on five-minute closes.

Linda Piazza : 12/5/2005 9:31:46 AM

The advdec line heads lower this morning, turning down from central channel resistance, but it's not at a point that would give me a good signal.

Jonathan Levinson : 12/5/2005 9:31:26 AM

30/60 min channel resistance is at 42.14-.16 QQQQ, support 41.86-.90. 72 SMA support is at 42.00. Link

Linda Piazza : 12/5/2005 9:31:10 AM

SMH lower. No quote for me on the SOX, yet.

Jeff Bailey : 12/5/2005 9:30:05 AM

Apache Corp. (APA) $68.18 Link ... ticking higher at $69.10 pre-market.

Jeff Bailey : 12/5/2005 9:25:31 AM

January Nat. Gas (ng06f) up $0.39, or 2.86% at $14.33. Friday's trade at $13.20 generated the "shake out" pattern. Near-term resistance at $15.00. Link

Jonathan Levinson : 12/5/2005 9:24:36 AM

QQQQ's was looking set to reverse its ongoing 30/60 min cycle downphases this AM, and then the premarket bottom fell out, with QQQQ currently off a high in the 42.20 area to a .06 loss at 42.047. A short cycle downphase is in progress, and it's going to be a tricky open with a gap at current levels. I'll update the channel and SMA values as soon as they refresh at the opening bell.

Linda Piazza : 12/5/2005 9:21:51 AM

Watch the SOX today. A third (or possibly fourth) gap last week suggests a possible exhaustion gap. You'll be hearing more about those in next weekend's Traders Corner article. I can't check volume patterns on the SOX and sometimes try using the SMH as a proxy, but the two are not completely comparable, of course. The SMH's volume was high as it gapped, as it should be on an exhaustion gap as the last retail traders get pulled in, but ideally, price shouldn't move too much after an exhaustion gap, and price did. I noticed after the close on Friday that a lot of 10,000 share lots were going through at the ask on the SMH, too. So, as always seems true, we have mixed evidence, but you really should keep the possibility of an exhaustion gap on your radar screen without counting on it happening. Just watch.

Linda Piazza : 12/5/2005 9:15:09 AM

My granddaughter had a trip to the hospital yesterday, and may have another this morning. Because I don't know whether I'll be here all day, or be here but be babysitting her four-year-old older sister, and because the markets are at such a make-or-break spot that must be watched closely, I will not be calling a play today.

After much soul-searching, and taking my family's needs and those of the readers into account, I have decided to take some away from the Market Monitor. I'll be here as much as possible for the next two weeks, but then will be posting only occasionally while my family sorts through some of the challenges now facing us. Among others, my granddaughter has also suffered a progressive hearing loss and goes through the process of getting cochlear implants in the next few months. I will continue to write for the nightly newsletter.

This was a difficult decision for me to make, but the last several week's developments have emphasized to me that my attention is now so split that I must make a decision as to where my time will be allocated. You won't be getting rid of me immediately or for forever, however, as I don't think I can wean myself away entirely.

I try not to diverge from market-related issues in my posts, but I want to use this time to urge any of you expecting a child or expecting a grandchild to find out about a full metabolic screen to be done while still in the hospital. Most states require a partial screen, but not for some of the most dangerous metabolic disorders. The tests are cheap and life-saving. Metabolic specialists now believe that there is no such thing as SIDS, but rather undiagnosed metabolic and perhaps mitochondrial diseases. Because my granddaughter had a metabolic stroke her first day of life, doing permanent neurological damage, her life has been spared over and over, because my daughter knows to begin watching for signs of a crash as soon as Emmi contracts even the most seemingly benign illness. Emmi's doctors have told my daughter that most metabolic disorders are discovered when an autopsy is performed on a child who died unexpectedly. So, on behalf of the baby in this picture Link , my granddaughter Emmi, and others like her, have those infants tested!

Linda Piazza : 12/5/2005 9:01:58 AM

Friday, the OEX drifted around most of the day and ended up about where it started, at the top of the broadening formation in which it's moved down from the 11/23 high: Link On a daily chart perspective, the OEX dipped down to test the 10-sma and the long-term S/R band from about 577-578.40 and it sprang up from that test, closing above both. Still, the day's candle was a potential reversal signal, and there's some hint that the OEX is forming a bull flag in which it's pulling back from the recent high. Because of the potential reversal signal on the daily chart and the doji under resistance produced during the last 30-minute candle, it's possible that today will see a pullback within that disorganized broadening formation, reforming that shape as a bull flag.

Don't get wedded to that thought, though, or risk anything on new bearish plays unless you've got lots of confirmation and aren't risking anything you can't afford to lose. Many conflicting signals exist, including that possible inverse H&S and the OEX's continual testing of resistance. If you're not scared to death of this strong run-up, then go long on an upside breakout of that channel. Whether long on an upside breakout or in a bearish position on an apparent rollover, be ready to abandon your position if the OEX starts moving the opposite direction.

Jonathan Levinson : 12/5/2005 8:30:07 AM

Equities have run higher, QQQQ now +.06 at 42.17. Ten year notes hold their losses, TNX up 3.6 bps at 4.555% at the cash open and IRX up 1.5 b ps to 3.907%, steepening the yield curve.

Jonathan Levinson : 12/5/2005 7:36:25 AM

Equities are flat to lower after an overnight runup, ES trading trading 1265, NQ 1710, YM 10882 and QQQQ flat at 42.11. Gold is up 2 to 509.10, silver +.081 to 8.722, ten year notes down 17/64 to 108 11/32, crude oil +.65 to 59.975 and natgas +.315 to 14.245.

We await the 10AM release of ISM Services, est. 59.3.

Linda Piazza : 12/5/2005 6:56:29 AM

Good morning. The Nikkei moved lower in latest trading, but then managed another of its triple-digit gains. Most other Asian markets turned lower, however, as do European markets this morning. As of 6:34 EST, gold was higher by $2.30 to $509.30, and crude, higher by $0.73 to $60.05, with that $60 figure likely to catch attention this morning. More detail about Asian and European markets follows in succeeding paragraphs.

The Nikkei started lower in earliest trading Monday, but bears can't keep the Nikkei down long. By the early afternoon, it was up by triple digits again. It closed up by 0.26%, at 15,461.57. A five-day chart shows that the climb became parabolic Thursday, when the low was 14,880.18, with the Nikkei last night briefly piercing 15,500. Parabolic rises are often symptomatic of "last gasp" type trading, but the Nikkei has shown one danger signal after another, and never stopped.

After the G7 meeting this weekend, both Fukui and Financial Minister Tanigaki said that the yen's move was consistent with the economy's state, and that the yen hadn't been discussed much at the meeting. Nevertheless, the USD/JPY pair gapped higher at the open of the forex market on Sunday night, with the pair coming down this morning toward a retest of that gap higher. The Minister of Finance's corporate survey showed that the quarter's capital spending rose more than the expected 6.5%, by 9.6% year over year, with that information released before the bell. Steelmakers gained. Oil-related stocks gained, too. Some exporters, including Advantest, dropped in earliest trading, but Advantest appeared to recover by the close and post a gain.

Other Asian markets were mixed, although my usual quote sources differ this morning, so a judgment had to be made as to which to trust. The Taiwan Weighted gained 0.68%, and South Korea's Kospi eased 0.03%. Singapore's Straits Times fell 0.33%. Hong Kong's Hang Seng dropped 0.27%. China's Shanghai Composite also fell. The wording of the G7's post-meeting communication seemed to apply more pressure on China to revalue the yuan.

Conflicting information was offered overnight about the global economic condition. The IMF's Rato said the fund expects the global economic growth to accelerate next year. However, the BIS' Quarterly Review predicted upward pressure on consumer prices with a deleterious effect on global inflation. The BIS questions whether recent rises in bond yields will be a short-lasting as other recent increases. The BIS used the word "exuberance" when talking about recent foreign demand for Japanese equities.

European markets are lower this morning, although my usual quote sources differ, with one, the most detailed, obviously in error. CNBC Europe shows the FTSE 100, DAX and CAC 40 all in negative territory as do Marketwatch.com reports, with rising crude costs sending oil majors higher and helping to support the bourses. In the U.K., CBI, an organization of employers, predicted that economic performance in the U.K. will be so-so over the next two years. Also in the U.K., the Engineering Employers' Federation gave its outlook on British manufacturing, saying the sector is still growing, but just clinging to growth. The EEF's chief economist told Chancellor Brown that the businesses could not bear a greater burden when the government's pre-budget report was released today. Manufacturing firms are reporting a drop in prices charged for domestic and export orders. Chancellor Brown is expected to lower the U.K.'s economic growth forecast during that report, but then predict a quick recovery in 2006.

November Services PMI figures are being released across Europe, with Italy's rising to 54.6 from October's 53.5, with the employment component dipping below 50; France's easing to 56.5 from October's 56.6, probably registering some effects from the recent riots; and the U.K's, easing to 55.8 from October's 56.1 reading. The U.K.'s had been expected to dip, but only to 56. The employment component dipped and the one measuring outstanding business fell below 50, to 49.9. In the Eurozone, October's retail sales rose 0.5% month over month and 0.4% year over year, but against revised figures for the previous two months, with September's revised lower and August's revised higher.

Mining and health care issues tended to move lower. Drug manufacturers declined. In stock-specific news, U.S. cable operator announced that it was considering a bid for U.K. mobile phone company Virgin Mobile, sending Virgin Mobile's stock sharply higher. Swisscom announced that it had stopped talks for a possible offer for Irish telecom Eircom due to a Swiss ban on foreign takeovers, with Eircom dropping and Swisscom rising as a result of the news. In other stock-specific news, EADS shares gained after expectations that China will reach an accord with Airbus, partly owned by EADS, to supply 150 commercial jetliners.

Because my usual quote source is providing erroneous quotes, I can only provide the information I could capture from the CNBC Europe screen. As of 6:34 EST, the FTSE 100 was lower by 22.30 points, but still just above the 5,505 range. The CAC 40 was lower by 11.56 points, and the DAX, by 13.04 points.

Market Monitor Archives