Option Investor
Archive
HAVING TROUBLE PRINTING?
Printer friendly version
Jeff Bailey : 12/7/2005 2:37:27 AM

Program Trading Levels for Wednesday ... HL Camp & Company has their computer set for program buying at $+2.06 and set for program selling at $+0.38.

Jeff Bailey : 12/7/2005 2:27:41 AM

Ensco (ESV) $48.08 Link ... looks bullish. Trade at $50.00 would be triple-top buy signal. Some room to grow to current bullish vertical count of $67.00. Bar chart at this Link shows a pennant forming from recent $49.80 high and $43.76 to $45.59 low with apex right in here at $47.50.

Jeff Bailey : 12/7/2005 2:14:31 AM

Oil Service HOLDRs (OXH) Link

Components at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 12/7/2005 2:04:28 AM

Oil Service Index (OSX.X) components, sorted by market cap at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 12/7/2005 1:46:51 AM

Dorsey/Wright's Oil Service Bullish % (BPOILS) alert achieved "bull confirmed" status with Tuesday's action. Offensive team back on the field here. Link

PHLX Oil Service Sector ($OSX.X) at this Link

Note: Dorsey/Wright tracks 126 different "oil service-related" stocks to comprise this sector bullish %. So... roughly 76 of the 126 PnF charts currently have a "buy signal" associated with the chart.

Jeff Bailey : 12/7/2005 1:26:29 AM

Question regarding LEAPS call(s) for GG and/or NEM ... Working on full reply for a Trader's Corner article, but here are three charts to review.

June06 Gold futures at this Link

Goldcorp (GG) at this Link

Newmont Mining (NEM) at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 12/7/2005 12:58:05 AM

Feb. Nat Gas futures (ng06g) $13.73 +1.07%, or $+0.146. Tries to reclaim $13.70-$13.72 overlap here. Link

Jeff Bailey : 12/6/2005 11:02:53 PM

e-mini S&P (es05z) is flat at 1,265.50.

Jeff Bailey : 12/6/2005 11:01:12 PM

U.S. Dollar Index (dx00y) 91.58 +0.10% ... did see trade at tomorrow's DAILY R1 (91.66), but backs off here.

December Gold (gc05z) 511.70 +1.50, or 0.29% ...

Jan. Nat Gas (ng06f) trades $13.56, so up $0.07, or +0.51% and looks "quiet" relative to recent sessions.

Jeff Bailey : 12/6/2005 10:42:08 PM

SPY / SPX Option Montage (close) found at this Link ... I quickly marked the 1-4 heaviest OI for both the SPY and SPX. Today's most active December in RED.

Note the volumes in the SPX 1,270 and 1,275 Calls and final dn/up tick. Split the difference (1,275 - 1,270 = 5.00) or $2.50, add the 2.50 to 1,270.00 and WEEKLY R1 looks very important at 1,272.50. And if history is going to repeat, then SPX DAILY S1 (1,260.06) and WEEKLY Pivot (1,260.97) important support for bulls tomorrow.

I benchmarked the SPY/SPX chains earlier this afternoon (03:36:30) Link and I do see, or will note here, that the SPY Dec. $127 Puts (SPY-XW) found a notable jump in volume from 8,865 benchmark to 13,060 by the close.

OI Technical Staff : 12/6/2005 9:59:59 PM

The Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

Disclaimer: Stocks discussed in the Market Monitor are for educational purposes only and any analysis is not meant to imply a recommendation for or against that stock. The analysts in this forum as on any other website are prohibited by the SEC from giving any specific advice to ANY individual trader. All information posted is for ALL readers and is not meant to be directed to any individual. Our analysts cannot answer any email questions regarding any specific stock. Please do not ask and please do not take offense if requests are denied.

Results posted in the Market Monitor are hypothetical and OIN does not claim that any reader achieved these exact results. Due to the lag time between research, writing, posting, uploading, reading and execution there will be differences between the actual signal given and the fill achieved by the reader. Fills may be better or worse but in most cases they will be different. The writers will make every effort to give advance notice of intended signals and indicate potential price targets. Your individual results may vary depending on your activity level and aggressiveness. This forum is intended as an education service only. Trading involves risk and should not be attempted by anyone not ready to accept this risk. By acting on any signal in this forum you agree and personally accept this risk.

Jeff Bailey : 12/6/2005 9:47:36 PM

S&P 500 (SPX.X) July-August 60-minute interval chart with August Monthly Pivot Retracement and the 08/01-08/05 WEEKLY Pivot Retracement at this Link

If there's one fly in the near-term bear's ointment at this point (relative to August time study), it is the time of year. Fund managers see where the major indices are (SPX setting multi-year highs) and there will be some pressure to perform, and show those funholders just how well they are doing.

Jeff Bailey : 12/6/2005 9:41:46 PM

S&P 500 (SPX.X) 60-minute interval chart at this Link ... Next Tuesday, 12/13/05 we've got the FOMC meeting with a Triple Witch Expiration on Friday 12/16/05.

The Stock Trader's Almanac notes that the Monday (12/12/05) of December Triple-Witching week, Dow up 8 of last 13.

Jeff Bailey : 12/6/2005 9:39:24 PM

I'll have to admit some surprise that the majors gave back the bulk of their session's gains in the last hour of trade.

Using the QQQQ as an example (thus my bullish thoughts for an INTC run to today's close and carryover to Friday), its gap above WEEKLY Pivot and very bullish a/d lines as well as NH/NL indications at 10:00 AM EST, had me convinced that QQQQ WEEKLY R1 was in the cards today with another trend day higher finding the majors closing at/near their highs of the session.

After the close, CNBC's Rick Santelli mentioned some e-mini S&P futures (es05z) selling just after the 03:00 PM EST mark, where after the futures "failed to make an intra-day high," bulls simply liquidated some positions. My QCharts' WEEKLY R1 on the es05z is 1,274.66 and today's high was 1,274.50. Considering this contract trades in increments of 0.25, that's pretty close to a trade at WEEKLY R1 in my opinion. Traders will note that the SPY / SPX did get a trade at their WEEKLY R1s.

I would have been on Mark's side with his ES long (see futures monitor) (I was with an INTC long), looking to inflict an e-mini "quick six" amount of further pain on some bears with a stop like Mark had. Keene and Jane followed the action from there.(more above)

Jeff Bailey : 12/6/2005 6:06:13 PM

Pivot Matrix for Wednesday found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 12/6/2005 5:11:22 PM

Closing U.S. Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 12/6/2005 4:58:52 PM

Closing Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 12/6/2005 4:38:32 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles found at this Link

Today's Activity ... Swing traded long 1/2 position in shares of Intel (INTC) at the offer of $27.10, but was stopped at $26.75. ($-0.35, or -1.29%)

Sold five (5) naked puts on Goldcorp and the GG Dec. $20 Puts (GG-XD) at the bid of $0.20.

Jane Fox : 12/6/2005 4:03:23 PM

TICKs range today was from +1139 to -988.

Jane Fox : 12/6/2005 4:02:55 PM

Too funny but the TICKS just reached +800 again.

Linda Piazza : 12/6/2005 3:57:49 PM

End-of-day decisions: The OEX today pierced the descending trendline off the 11/23 high and then fell all the way back inside the coiling formation. While there's not yet been confirmation of the bearishness, this is not a bullish development, and suggests the possibility that the OEX could now move lower through the recent consolidation pattern. This also happened as the OEX tested daily and 240-minute Keltner resistance.

Those of you making decisions have to make them, however, knowing that the OEX is currently testing 15-minute support that usually holds. It's also testing daily Keltner support at 578.25 on daily closes, and will likely close at that support. It's also likely to close right on the rising trendline from Monday. This is a mixed picture, suggesting the possibility of a bounce attempt tomorrow morning, unless there's a gap down, but not suggesting strength at these levels, for sure.

Linda Piazza : 12/6/2005 3:48:58 PM

On the 15-minute chart, the SOX looks vulnerable to about 499.19-500.62. It's pausing at the bottom of Monday's gap lower, however, trying to hang onto support there. SOX at 503.12 as I type.

Linda Piazza : 12/6/2005 3:47:53 PM

The OEX slipped all the way to the support of the 15-mintue Keltner channel that usually contains most movements, with that at 578.14 on 15-minute closes. It's bounced up from that to retest that descending trendline from 11/23, with this test going on from underneath the trendline. Bulls do not want the OEX to close anywhere below that trendline.

Unless the OEX is going to start trending lower, which is possible, the 15-minute RSI indicates that it's reaching oversold levels. It's up for grabs as to whether this is just a retest of the broken resistance to see if it's support or if this is a rejection of that breakout, but the way the decline happened doesn't look anything like something so mannered as a bull flag pullback.

Jeff Bailey : 12/6/2005 3:44:57 PM

Bullish swing trade stopped alert on Intel (INTC) at $26.75.

Jeff Bailey : 12/6/2005 3:42:42 PM

Jan. Nat Gas (ng06f) settled down $0.171, or -1.25% at $13.489. Settled above the $13.40/$13.41 overlap, so to me, still a bullish settlement into some of tomorrow's EIA data.

Jonathan Levinson : 12/6/2005 3:39:57 PM

Session low for QQQQ, entering this morning's gap. Another brilliant distribution job at the highs. Link

Jeff Bailey : 12/6/2005 3:39:25 PM

Sell Program Premium ... DIA $108.68, SPX 1,264.52, QQQQ $41.98

Linda Piazza : 12/6/2005 3:38:30 PM

So far, the OEX's mid-channel support at 579.70 on 15-minute closes is holding as support. There's the potential for--sigh--yet another H&S to form on that chart, with a rise now toward 581.40. If the OEX should bounce that far, and if you didn't set stops on your bullish positions or take partial profits, perhaps you might want to consider whether you want to do so at that level. I'm not certain the OEX will rise that high or rise at all. Bulls have just gotten a surprise. Be prepared for anything currently as we've seen evidence of the bull and bear struggles today and the speed with which markets can move once one of the gains momentary advantage. Know the conditions under which you're trading, decide if you want to accept those risks, and then know where you want your stops to be.

Jeff Bailey : 12/6/2005 3:36:30 PM

VIX.X 11.41 -1.63% ... high of the day and WEEKLY Pivot. Quick screen capture of SPY/SPX options chain at this Link

Linda Piazza : 12/6/2005 3:35:02 PM

The SOX is trying to hold support near Friday's close. SOX at 505.21 as I type.

Linda Piazza : 12/6/2005 3:28:52 PM

The SOX is now piercing the five-minute 100/130-ema's, now dropping into Monday's gap lower, but trying to bounce back to those averages. This is a dangerous time for bears at which support might be found somewhere within the gap, but this is not bullish behavior, of course. Until the SOX drops below the gap from last Thursday, however, there will not be confirmation that that gap was an exhaustion gap. SOX at 505.00 as I type.

Jeff Bailey : 12/6/2005 3:27:13 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 12/6/2005 3:22:50 PM

QQQQ plunged to 42.04 and has bounced to 42.10 here, the wavelet turning up from oversold within the ongoing short cycle downphase: Link The morning low wasn't approached, let alone tested.

Linda Piazza : 12/6/2005 3:22:02 PM

Once again, the SOX not only met its downside target from an intraday H&S, but actually exceeded it. Bears have the reins short-term, but important support is being tested. The SOX is testing the five-minute 100/130-ema's, for example, with those at 505.73 and 504.88, respectively.

Linda Piazza : 12/6/2005 3:19:53 PM

The Dow has drawn back all the way to its 10-sma at 10,880.62, with the Dow at 10,879.60, testing that. We don't know yet if it's going to bounce from it or slip lower below it. Be careful.

Linda Piazza : 12/6/2005 3:18:53 PM

OEX still dropping, all the way to mid-channel support at 579.69 on 15-minute closes. It absolutely will not be good for bulls if the OEX closes anywhere near its current level, but particularly if it closes back below the former ascending trendline off the 11/23 low, with two versions of that trendline at 578.80 and 579.19, respectively.

Jeff Bailey : 12/6/2005 3:15:04 PM

03:00 Internals found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 12/6/2005 3:14:55 PM

42.07-.12 is confluence here, the same confluence we shorted against at 42.09 this morning. The short cycle downphase is nearly oversold, and that's the support that will be in play- at the same time, however, the 30 and 60 min (and daily and weekly) cycles are due for downphases, which could add further pressure if 42.07 breaks. Link

Linda Piazza : 12/6/2005 3:13:13 PM

SOX dropping fast. Now at 505.71, just testing the five-minute 100/130-ema's at 505.75 and 504.87, respectively.

Linda Piazza : 12/6/2005 3:12:10 PM

Advdec line reaches down toward another potentially important support level, at 1620-1730, with the advdec line dropping below both as I typed. The advdec line is now at 1464, QCharts value.

Linda Piazza : 12/6/2005 3:09:46 PM

The SOX has now confirmed that latest H&S, although the right shoulder was far out shape when compared to the left, so I'm not sure how valid the formation is. The confirmation came on the drop below 507.55, but the SOX immediately bounces up to retest that. The downside target for that formation, if met, is at about 505.29, near the five-minute 100/130-ema's and also near Friday's 505.50 close, so a drop down to that target would constitute a retest of the top of the gap down Monday morning. SOX at 507.18 as I type.

Jonathan Levinson : 12/6/2005 3:08:47 PM

Volume breadth is down to +2.8:1 on the NYSE, +2.5:1 on the Nasdaq, still quite strong.

Jonathan Levinson : 12/6/2005 3:07:42 PM

QQQQ breaks 72 SMA support and heads toward 30 min channel support at 42.12: Link

Linda Piazza : 12/6/2005 3:06:21 PM

The pullbacks on many markets look bull flag-ish. Bearish divergences persist, both when comparing some of today's swing highs to each other and when comparing recent swing highs with today's. Former Keltner support now appears to be holding as resistance. Mixed evidence, but bulls have it easy. You have had the opportunity to follow prices higher with your stops, so you just let the price action dictate whether you stay in or get out.

Jeff Bailey : 12/6/2005 3:04:41 PM

03:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 12/6/2005 2:58:04 PM

Since about noon, the OEX has been coiling. The boundaries of its formation are at about 581.80 on the downside and 582.46 on the upside, with the OEX currently testing the downside, or rather, currently bouncing from the downside boundary, with that happening as I typed. OeX at 581.92.

Jonathan Levinson : 12/6/2005 2:57:52 PM

The short cycle downphase is now roughly 2/3 of the way through its range, the wavelet cycle aborting an upphase in the early going. This is still biased to the downside off the high, but it's taking its time getting there. 72 SMA support is in plauy for the first time today. Link

Linda Piazza : 12/6/2005 2:52:20 PM

SOX still holding 15-minute support at 508.14-508.25. SOX at 508.52 as I type.

Linda Piazza : 12/6/2005 2:51:38 PM

The OEX is slipping beneath the 15-minute Keltner support that's held it all day, but it's still early in this 15-minute period and this could be part of its bull-flag-appearing pullback. I think it's likely to attempt a bounce soon, from near 581.74. If so, bulls want that bounce to close the current 15-minute period above the Keltner line now at 582.05. OEX at 581.87, beginning to bounce a little.

Linda Piazza : 12/6/2005 2:48:50 PM

The SOX looks to me as if it's invalidating that latest H&S on the one-mintue chart, trying to confirm a double-bottom formation, but it will need a push above 509.01 to do that.

Jonathan Levinson : 12/6/2005 2:47:42 PM

Session low for GOOG here at 404.70, nearly 12 points off its 416.41 high earlier today.

Linda Piazza : 12/6/2005 2:44:12 PM

SOX charged right back up to the one-minute 100/130-ema's again, with those at 508.78 and 508.65, respectively. SOX now at 508.53. You can certainly see the battle going on. There are some signs that bears are gaining some strength over the very short-term period, but bulls certainly have not been vanquished and bears have not been able to push the SOX below that 507.50-508 next support zone.

Linda Piazza : 12/6/2005 2:44:09 PM

SOX charged right back up to the one-minute 100/130-ema's again, with those at 508.78 and 508.65, respectively. SOX now at 508.53. You can certainly see the battle going on. There are some signs that bears are gaining some strength over the very short-term period, but bulls certainly have not been vanquished and bears have not been able to push the SOX below that 507.50-508 next support zone.

Jeff Bailey : 12/6/2005 2:43:29 PM

Jan. Nat Gas (ng06f) $13.38 -2.04% (30-min. delayed) ... has broken back under "overlapping" support of $13.40.

Apache Corp. (APA) $69.93 +2.02% ...

Linda Piazza : 12/6/2005 2:40:41 PM

Neckline for the SOX's new H&S on the one-minute chart appears to be at about 507.75 now, but the SOX currently tries to rise from an equal-low test of the 2:10 low. SOX at 508.12 as I type.

Keene Little : 12/6/2005 2:36:33 PM

Jonathan, interesting charts you showed (2:22). It looks like we're getting a little throw-over and any drop back down below the lines would be a sell signal. This goes along with the bearish INTC chart I showed on Monday where it looked to me like it was topping around $27.50. INTC's pattern is pretty clear to me and I figured if it looks like it's topping, it's probably indicative of the broader market topping as well.

Linda Piazza : 12/6/2005 2:34:03 PM

The OEX is now testing 15-minute Keltner resistance at 582.33 on 15-minute closes, but it hasn't yet today lost 15-minute support, now at 582.11 on 15-minute closes. OEX at 582.16 as I type.

Linda Piazza : 12/6/2005 2:31:15 PM

The SOX is still finding support at the 15-minute breakout level, at 507.99-508.07 on 15-minute closes. That's the next support that bulls want to hold and bears want to fall. The SOX is at 508.54 as I type. As I suspected it would do, it's been trying to form an inverse H&S with a neckline at the one-minute 100-ema, currently at 508.89, but now the right shoulder stretches out a long while in time and so there's some hint that bulls can't quite get that job done. That's not any definitive sign of weakness, just a short-term sign to watch. There's a larger regular H&S on the SOX's one-minute chart, too, now, this one with a neckline at about 507.83, but the SOX needs to break through that fairly quickly or it's going to be invalidated for the same reason, because the right shoulder stretches out too far in time.

Jeff Bailey : 12/6/2005 2:30:28 PM

Swing trade sell naked puts alert ... Let's sell five (5) of the Goldcorp GG Dec $20 Puts (GG-XD) at the bid of $0.20.

GG $20.67 +1.62% here

Jonathan Levinson : 12/6/2005 2:22:07 PM

The move to new highs for the move has whipsawed the daily cycle back to the ceiling in an extended trending move. It's also violated longer term rising resistance. Closeup candle view at this Link , 2 year daily view at this Link , weekly view at this Link

Linda Piazza : 12/6/2005 2:21:44 PM

The SOX is retesting the one-minute 100/130-ema's . . . oops, dropped back below them as I typed. Their new state as resistance must be confirmed by a SOX drop below the last one-minute swing low at 507.98, however. SOX at 508.56 as I type. I wouldn't be surprised to see the SOX try to form a competing inverse H&S here with a neckline along the one-minute 100-ema.

Linda Piazza : 12/6/2005 2:19:33 PM

The OEX dropped out of its neutral triangle, losing 7-minute Keltner support, but it found support again near the 1:00 swing low. It may be in the process of converting that former neutral triangle into a bearish right triangle, but there's some hint of a possible bear flag pullback, too. The OEX is currently testing the 7-minute level that was former support, with that at 582.37 on 7=minute closes, with the OEX right there as I type.

Jonathan Levinson : 12/6/2005 2:18:12 PM

Volume breadth is +3.55:1 on the NYSE, +3.06:1 on the Nasdaq.

Linda Piazza : 12/6/2005 2:17:25 PM

The SOX did not drop all the way into its target for its H&S visible on the one-minute chart, at least not yet. It's rising back to test the important 7-minute Keltner S/R level, from 508.26-509.08 on 7-minute closes. I was actually surprised to see the SOX drop below that support at all, even just to pierce it, because it looked so strong. Now we'll have to see how the SOX handles this test. Since the SOX's last gap higher last last week, a potential exhaustion gap, I've been closely watching how it behaves. Momentum can carry prices higher even after an exhaustion gap, and it's certainly not proven that this is an exhaustion gap, but all bulls should be aware of the possibility. SOX at 503.41 as I type.

Jeff Bailey : 12/6/2005 2:16:24 PM

02:00 Internals at this Link

Linda Piazza : 12/6/2005 2:09:38 PM

The SOX is now below both levels of Keltner support that had bounced it earlier, but 7-minute support from 504.47-508.71 looks firm. It's going to take a strong downdraft to knock the SOX (no pun intended) below that. SOX at 508.44 as I type, moving into that potential support zone, important on 7-minute closes. If it loses this support, it shows more change in short-term tenor.

Linda Piazza : 12/6/2005 2:06:48 PM

Downside target for the SOX's confirmed H&S on the one-minute chart is about 507.92. Let's see if it's reached to see if bears or bulls have the reins over the short-term. I'm mentioning the SOX so often because it's such an important indicator index and because it's reaching such important resistance.

Jonathan Levinson : 12/6/2005 2:03:51 PM

The current flat range has coincided with a bearish divergent short cycle downphase- a perfect setup for a steep drop, but in this case, minus the drop. Price is holding absolutely flat for QQQQ, the downphase getting no traction from its lower oscillator high. A break below 42.20 would violate 72 SMA support for the first time today, but so far, price is impressively solid with the downphase roughly half done. Link

Linda Piazza : 12/6/2005 2:03:41 PM

Here we go. The SOX is headed down toward that H&S's neckline on the one-minute chart, testing the neckline as I type. If bears are going to change even the short-term trend, they need to push the SOX below that one-minute 100-ema at 509.12 and push it down hard. Otherwise, bulls will just buy the dip and invalidate the thing. It's been confirmed as I type, but the SOX isn't yet falling far.

Jeff Bailey : 12/6/2005 2:02:42 PM

02:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 12/6/2005 2:02:07 PM

Advdec line again bouncing from that 3-minute support, which is good for buls, but that support is beginning to round over a little, which isn't so good.

Jeff Bailey : 12/6/2005 2:00:25 PM

Apache Corp. (APA) $69.96 +2.07% ... come back to challenge session high of .... $70.06.

Linda Piazza : 12/6/2005 2:00:24 PM

SOX still within an appropriate right-shoulder level for a potential H&S on its one-minute chart. It's going to need to confirm soon, however, or bulls are going to invalidate it. SOX at 509.64 as I type, testing the right-shoulder level, and it needs to drop below the one-minute 100-ema, currently at 509.11 to confirm this.

Jeff Bailey : 12/6/2005 1:59:39 PM

Nat. Gas Index (XNG.X) 401.86 +1.81% ... session high has been ... 401.99.

Linda Piazza : 12/6/2005 1:58:33 PM

Advdec line tests the three-minute Keltner support. It may be attempting to bounce as I type, but not much. Advdec line at 2104, that support at 2085.

Linda Piazza : 12/6/2005 1:56:37 PM

Same song, third verse: The VIX has a potential inverse H&S at the bottom of its decline, with the neckline at about 11.01 and with the right-shoulder level being tested as I type. Oops, no, the VIX just bounced up toward the neckline. VIX at 11.01.

Jeff Bailey : 12/6/2005 1:55:20 PM

Jan. Nat. Gas (ng06f) $13.78 +0.87% (30-min. delayed) ... did just tick into $13.82-$13.92 zone with floor session high of $13.83.

Linda Piazza : 12/6/2005 1:55:09 PM

Same song, second verse: The SOX has a potential H&S on its one-minute chart, with the neckline at about 509.07, which just happens to also be the location of the one-minute 100-ema, with the 130-ema below that at 508.69. SOX at 509.35 as I type, and a move above 509.90 would invalidate the formation. SOX at 509.25 as I type.

Linda Piazza : 12/6/2005 1:51:25 PM

Advdec line testing support that bulls would like to see hold, at 2070 on three-minute closes, with the advdec line currently at 2079. These numbers can change fast. Just know that bulls wold like to see the advdec line not drop too far below the current level, and especially not below about 2050.

Jane Fox : 12/6/2005 1:51:11 PM

These two have officially entered the stay long or stay out arena. Link

Linda Piazza : 12/6/2005 1:49:11 PM

OEX testing important Keltner support, currently at 582.19 on 7-minute closes. OEX at 582.38.

Linda Piazza : 12/6/2005 1:47:50 PM

Remember that it's possible that the SOX is just broadening that rising wedge into a more sustainable rising regression channel. If so, QCharts says its now at the supporting trendline of that rising regression channel, at the current 509.30-ish zone.

Linda Piazza : 12/6/2005 1:46:28 PM

SOX testing the Keltner support that's bounced it all day, at 509.55 on three-minute closes. It just closed the previous three-minute period right at that support, and it's easing a little below it as I type. It would need to drop below next support at 508.55-508.70 on three-minute closes to confirm that it's lost that three-minute support, however. Even then, that's only the barest hint of a change in trend. SOX at 509.32 as I type.

Linda Piazza : 12/6/2005 1:41:03 PM

SOX dropping again toward three-minute Keltner support. That's been holding all day, but has been softening somewhat as the day goes on. First support is now being tested, at 509.32-509.51. Next support, and more important to hold on three-minute closes for the short-term trend to continue, is at 508.45-508.70.

Jeff Bailey : 12/6/2005 1:41:12 PM

S&P Depository Receipts (SPY) 127.56 +0.84% ... holding near session highs and right at WEEKLY R1. Break much above gives way to correlative WEEKLY R2/MONTHLY R1.

That's a "quick six" for e-mini futures traders.

Linda Piazza : 12/6/2005 1:37:10 PM

OEX's 7-minute resistance at 582.90. Fifteen-minute way above that, at 584.46. Important 15-minute support from 581.90-582.11.

Linda Piazza : 12/6/2005 1:35:23 PM

The SOX is right underneath the resistance of that long-term rising regression channel in which it's been rising since mid-2004. That's one reason that I've been watching so closely for potential resistance today. We've seen signs of strength lately in the SOX, but this has been long-term resistance. One problem is that this is weekly resistance and so it's important how the week closes and not so much how the SOX trades intraweek, although that's of course important. Another is that it's possible to draw this channel several ways, with slightly different top resistance. SOX at new high as I type.

Jeff Bailey : 12/6/2005 1:35:17 PM

Bullish swing trade long alert for shares of Intel (INTC) $27.10 here, stop $26.75, target $27.70.

Linda Piazza : 12/6/2005 1:31:58 PM

OEX support that bulls want to see hold is at 582.01 on 7-minute closes. OEX at 582.23 as I type, coiling.

Linda Piazza : 12/6/2005 1:31:07 PM

New high on the SOX, but a new high below that rising wedge. Does it matter? Not if you're long the SOX, except that you need to be aware of potential signs of short-term "not as strong-ness," since it's difficult to qualify that as weakness, even over the short term. SOX at 510.01 as I type.

Jonathan Levinson : 12/6/2005 1:26:27 PM

I need to step away for half an hour here.

Linda Piazza : 12/6/2005 1:26:08 PM

OEX Keltner support held, with that support at 581.99 currently, on 7-minute closes. I suspect that the OEX may just be coiling, though. OEX at 582.26 as I type.

Jonathan Levinson : 12/6/2005 1:26:00 PM

QQQQ's volume does not do the price action justice- 45.7M traded so far today. This is on track to match or exceed yesterday's weak 61.6M shares traded, but is still just over half of the average of 86.1M shares. Still, 3 shares are advancing for every one declining on the Nasdaq.

Linda Piazza : 12/6/2005 1:24:01 PM

The OEX is again testing Keltner support that bounced it earlier today, at 581.98 on 7-minute closes, with the OEX at 582.02.

Linda Piazza : 12/6/2005 1:21:55 PM

Bulls want to see the advdec line hold above about 1970 on this pullback. Advdec line now at 2112, QCharts value.

Linda Piazza : 12/6/2005 1:16:56 PM

Advdec line testing the day's high. Finally. It lagged some of the indices.

Linda Piazza : 12/6/2005 1:16:23 PM

Hmm. The SOX's rising wedge's support may be holding as resistance. The SOX would need to drop beneath 507.86-508.18 on three-minute closes to even begin to change its short-term tenor, however. The SOX is at 509.56 as I type.

Jonathan Levinson : 12/6/2005 1:15:37 PM

Foreign central banks took a minimal 1.5B of the 16B 4-week bill auction. The bills sold for 3.75% yielding 3.813%, and generated 2.33 bids for each awarded. IRX is currently up 1.2 bps at 3.922%.

Linda Piazza : 12/6/2005 1:14:24 PM

SOX climbing again, with the top of its rising wedge shapr at about 510.37. SOX at 509.80. This climb appears to be along the rising wedge shape's support, however, rather than a real climb through the formation. However, that's microanalyzing. The SOX climbs. So far.

Jeff Bailey : 12/6/2005 1:13:33 PM

01:00 Internals found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 12/6/2005 1:07:21 PM

Often times lately when the OEX trends, it's finding support and/or resistance along the 15-minute 10-sma. That's currently at 581.52, with the OEX currently at 582.15. The OEX did find support on this MA at about 11:15 today, and bulls want it to continue to do so.

Jonathan Levinson : 12/6/2005 1:05:33 PM

Volume breadth +3.5:1 on the NYSE, +3:1 on the Nasdaq.

Linda Piazza : 12/6/2005 1:05:00 PM

Now the SOX trades sideways out of the rising wedge shape. Not yet a sign of weakness.

Jeff Bailey : 12/6/2005 1:04:52 PM

01:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 12/6/2005 1:02:04 PM

OEX approaching potential support from about 581.64-581.95. OEX at 582.03 as I type. Bulls want to see that bounce, of course.

Linda Piazza : 12/6/2005 1:00:07 PM

SOX attempting a bounce from the support of its rising wedge trendline, after trading sideways into that support. As I said earlier, that usually suggest that a bounce attempt will occur, but this one isn't looking too strong yet. I wonder if that three-minute support has weakened enough yet to allow a pullback? It still looks relatively strong, but far weakner than it did at about 11:15 this morning.

Jonathan Levinson : 12/6/2005 12:59:51 PM

I tend to view a consolidation at the highs (or lows) as a sign that they aren't "THE" high or low- if it's too easy to nail the high or low, then the move probably isn't done. QQQQ's short cycle is toppy but it's been trending for hours, and the wavelet downphase is already stalling. A bounce from here that clears 42.30 will have next resistance just below R2 at 42.36. The longer that price holds above 42.20, the more likely a higher high becomes. Link

Jeff Bailey : 12/6/2005 1:02:17 PM

Yahah! ... APA-XN now 432:2987. Buyer has dn/up 172:188.

APA $69.76 +1.77% .... slips back under WEEKLY R1

A day trader bull of APA might cut and run with this type of observation.

Linda Piazza : 12/6/2005 12:57:07 PM

The TRAN still climbs, and would need to break below 4150 to even begin to change its rally mode today. Then it wold need to break below about 4136, the current site of the rising trendline off the last October low, if I've drawn it correctly. The TRAN is at 4156.19 as I type.

Linda Piazza : 12/6/2005 12:53:48 PM

The SOX is about to run sideways into the rising support from its rising wedge shape. That's usually a bullish sign, usually suggesting that it will bounce. The three-minute support is beginning to soften now, but maybe not enough yet to let the SOX fall out of that formation without a strong downdraft. Top resistance now at about 509.86. Bottom support at about 508.86, with three-minute Keltner support amassed beneath that, but a little softer than earlier. SOX at 509.09.

Jeff Bailey : 12/6/2005 12:57:09 PM

Apache Corp. (APA) $69.85 +1.91% ... resting on its WEEKLY R1 here. Here's a 5-minute interval chart and some observations. Nope, APA is not a semiconductor stock Link

Yesterday I showed the APA option montage, and we have some $70 Call "resistance".

The offsetting $70 put shows just 223 contracts trade, OI = 2,987. dn/up is 172:3

The APA-LN show 1,682 traded, OI = 8,586. Current dn/up is 186:143 on this call.

Jonathan Levinson : 12/6/2005 12:51:22 PM

Ten year note yields have plunged to a 7.9 bp loss here at 4.488%, losing 4.5% support. IRX is up 1.2 bps at 3.922%, flattening the yield curve further.

Linda Piazza : 12/6/2005 12:50:21 PM

The OEX is dropping again, with its shape on the one-minute chart still looking like a H&S, but with that right shoulder lengthening out so much in time that the formation may be converting into a triangle, which would have a different connotation entirely. OEX at 282.22 as I type, perhaps confirming that formation after all. I don't count on anything bearish, though, in this climate, and you shouldn't, either.

Linda Piazza : 12/6/2005 12:47:21 PM

The SOX moves sideways near the day's high. Suggests another punch higher, toward that rising trendline, now at about 509.74. The bottom support is now at about 508.67, with three-minute Keltner support still amassed beneath it so thickly that it's going to either take strong downdraft or a lot of consolidation to get through it. It has already softened from earlier, however.

Jeff Bailey : 12/6/2005 12:45:55 PM

Jan. Nat. Gas (ng06f) ... same chart as 12:41:31, but 5-minute intervals with WEEKLY Pivot Levels turned on at this Link

Linda Piazza : 12/6/2005 12:44:26 PM

And, the OEX rises, obviously without having met its downside target on that one-minute chart. It isn't past the right-shoulder level yet.

Jane Fox : 12/6/2005 12:44:34 PM

The VIX is now making new daily lows confirming the bullishness. The VIX has started to lag more than usual these last few weeks and it makes me uncomfortable. I have used the relationship between VIX and ES for months now have come to depend on it. If the VIX did not make a new daily low to confirm an ES new daily high that daily high typically was a headfake but that has not been the case lately.

Linda Piazza : 12/6/2005 12:42:54 PM

The OEX has minimally confirmed that rough H&S, but . . . well, you know what kind of track record the markets have lately on bearish formations. Downside target about 581.50, so let's watch to see if that's met, to tell us about shortest-term bearishness. OEX at 582.28 as I type. There's the possibility that it would find support near 582-582.10 and rise into a new right shoulder from there.

Jeff Bailey : 12/6/2005 12:41:31 PM

Jan. Nat. Gas (ng06f) with conventional (BLUE) and relative high/low close (PINK) retracement at this Link ... Note: Friday's settle couldn't quite close the deal above $13.92. That's the hurdle for nat gas bulls. "Show me the money! Show me the strength!"

Linda Piazza : 12/6/2005 12:38:59 PM

Potential rough H&S on the OEX's one-minute chart, neckline at about 582.35 currently, OEX at 582.52.

Tab Gilles : 12/6/2005 12:38:21 PM

Jonathan in reference to your 12/6/2005 12:33:12 PM post; Link

Linda Piazza : 12/6/2005 12:36:26 PM

The bottom of the SOX's rising wedge is now at about 508.21, with three-minute Keltner support first at the current 508.82 level and then from 507.40-508.10 on three-minute closes. Top resistance at 509.39, with the SOX rising to test that again. SOX at 509.08 as I type.

Jonathan Levinson : 12/6/2005 12:33:12 PM

Headlines:

12:31pm ENERGY DEPT SEES FASTER RECOVERY OF GULF ENERGY THAN IN NOV.

12:31pm ENERGY DEPT. SEES HEATING BILLS UP $203 OR 25.7% VS YEAR AGO

12:31pm ENERGY DEPT. LOWERS FORECAST FOR WINTER HEATING BILLS

Crude oil trades +.325 at 60.225, just off its 60.25 session high.

Linda Piazza : 12/6/2005 12:32:37 PM

OEX daily Keltner resistance at 581.99 on daily closes. OEX at 582.48, and bulls would now like to see that 582 level hold as support on any pullbacks.

Jonathan Levinson : 12/6/2005 12:32:30 PM

QQQQ holds steady at the high, and while volume is relatively light for the Qs today, the persistence at the highs looks very bullish, with the 30 min channel top still rising. 1st sign of trouble for the bulls will be a break below 72 SMA support at 42.08. Link

Linda Piazza : 12/6/2005 12:32:28 PM

OEX daily Keltner resistance at 581.99 on daily closes. OEX at 582.48, and bulls would now like to see that 582 level hold as support on any pullbacks.

Linda Piazza : 12/6/2005 12:30:38 PM

Dow so far holding above 10,900, at 10,919.61, but down slightly from its day's high. The Dow did not break above the rising trendline off its day's swing highs, but rather paused there. So far, it's just a case of bulls needing to keep raising their stops, but continue to be aware on the OEX at least that 240-minute and daily resistance levels are being tested. The OEX is above them now, but the day is far from ended, and a drop back below that resistance by the close would mean that it's held, not been breached.

Jonathan Levinson : 12/6/2005 12:29:21 PM

Session high for ten year notes here at 108 27/32, TNX -7.1 bps at 4.496%. IRX is up 1.7 bps at 3.927%.

Linda Piazza : 12/6/2005 12:25:51 PM

SOX so far maintaining values above last week's high. SOX at 509.26 as I type. Lots of rising wedge-looking formations today, with the SOX currently testing the top of its formation currently, and pausing there. If it pulls back, there looks as if there's plenty of support near the bottom support of that rising wedge, now at about 508, with three-minute Keltner support amassed from 507.25-507.77 on three-minute closes. Somebody is going to have to rewrite all those technical analysis texts, because I certainly haven't found risign wedges to be bearish since 2003.

Jane Fox : 12/6/2005 12:23:20 PM

HMMM TRIN is a very bullish 0.50 so maybe that mitigates the VIX.

Jonathan Levinson : 12/6/2005 12:23:14 PM

QQQQ tests upper 30 min channel resistance at 42.30. Again, a potential bearish divergent in the short cycle stochastics and Macd, but we already know to ignore those. Link

Jane Fox : 12/6/2005 12:22:04 PM

It certainly should be bothering the bulls that the VIX has not made a new daily low with all this bullishness.

Jeff Bailey : 12/6/2005 12:21:08 PM

Buy Program Premium ... DIA $109.24, SPX 1,272.34, QQQQ $42.28

Jeff Bailey : 12/6/2005 12:20:39 PM

Apache Corp. (APA) $69.81 +1.85% Link ... Has moved above my bullish fit 38.2% retracement of $69.50. "Zone of resistance" now ahead between $72.43-$73.06.

Jane Fox : 12/6/2005 12:19:54 PM

TICKS +1000

Jeff Bailey : 12/6/2005 12:16:58 PM

AMEX Nat. Gas Index (XNG.X) 401.36 +1.69% Link ... Threatens to break out of 2-month base.

Jonathan Levinson : 12/6/2005 12:16:20 PM

Session high for ten year notes here, TNX down to a 6.5 bp loss at 4.502%. IRX is up 1.7 bps at 3.927%.

Jane Fox : 12/6/2005 12:15:55 PM

Here we are in the next best timeframe for trading ER (12:00 - 1:30) and look at that puppy go.

Jonathan Levinson : 12/6/2005 12:14:49 PM

Volume breadth very strong here at +3.5:1 on the NYSE, +3.1:1 on the Nasdaq. Even at the peak of yesterday's selling, we didn't see anything approaching these readings on the downside.

Jane Fox : 12/6/2005 12:14:09 PM

Don't even think short here. Link

Linda Piazza : 12/6/2005 12:14:02 PM

Watching the SOX now to see if it's slapped back or punches higher.

Jonathan Levinson : 12/6/2005 12:13:20 PM

QQQQ breaks the previous high and tests R1 at 42.25: Link

Jeff Bailey : 12/6/2005 12:13:16 PM

12:00 Internals found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 12/6/2005 12:13:15 PM

SOX above last week's high.

Linda Piazza : 12/6/2005 12:12:52 PM

VIX dropping again to test former resistance, now at 11.14 with the VIX there, too. The VIX is still forming a series of higher lows and higher highs, but that could be a bear flag forming.

Jane Fox : 12/6/2005 12:11:57 PM

TICKS +1000

Jane Fox : 12/6/2005 12:11:44 PM

Obviously I needed to defer to the AD volume again today for the VIX fooled me again.

Linda Piazza : 12/6/2005 12:11:06 PM

SOX testing last week's high.

Linda Piazza : 12/6/2005 12:10:52 PM

Today's OEX pattern is beginning to take on a rising wedge look. We've seen as many of these break to the upside as to the downside, just as we've seen bearish divergence such as those showing up now on the five- through 15-minute charts not mean anything, but just be aware of its existence. So far, bulls have nothing to do but keep moving their stops higher.

Linda Piazza : 12/6/2005 12:08:20 PM

New high on the OEX. Still working for bulls. Remain aware of the daily and Keltner resistance being tested.

Linda Piazza : 12/6/2005 12:06:52 PM

The advdec line is still coiling. Until it breaks, we won't know which direction it's going to break. On the 29th, it broke to the downside, at about 1:00, from a similar appearing coil beneath analogous Keltner resistance. On the October 28, it broke to the upside about 1:45, also from an analogous setup.

Jeff Bailey : 12/6/2005 12:05:37 PM

12:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jane Fox : 12/6/2005 12:00:34 PM

ES's new daily high was not met with a VIX new daily low so I don't expect it to hold. This is just another reason that I am not overly bullish although I am certainly not bearish.

Jonathan Levinson : 12/6/2005 11:59:03 AM

QQQQ's short cycle is in a top zone now after that quick run, having stopped 1 penny short of 42.20. It needs to drop right away to validate a rollover. Because the broader short cycle is hanging around the middle of its range, a sudden whip higher or lower cannot be ruled out. Link

Linda Piazza : 12/6/2005 11:56:01 AM

The advdec line continues to find support above 1000 and now above Keltner support at 1127.86-1226.04 on 7-minute closes. So far, so good for bulls. OEX testing daily and 240-minute Keltner resistance, continuing to show bearish price/RSI divergences for what little that's worth.

Linda Piazza : 12/6/2005 11:54:08 AM

The VIX has broken above the resistance that was holding it back earlier, and has now come down to retest it, a test that will determine if it now holds a ssupport. VIX at 11.17, with that potential support level at 11.15-11.17 on 7-minute closes.

Linda Piazza : 12/6/2005 11:52:24 AM

The TRAN has risen to retest the former ascending trendline off the October 19 low, the last low before it broke higher into the long climb into the recently hit record high. Depending on how the trendline is drawn, the TRAN may actually be a few points above that trendline, with the trendline, as I've drawn it, at about 4134.83, which also happens to be next Keltner support on the 15-minute chart. TRAN at 4142.18, but keep in mind the possibility that my trendline is angled just a little off, and that the trendline is actually a little higher, forming resistance rather than support. Whether it is or it isn't, market bulls don't want to see the TRAN drop below 4134.83 on a 15-minute close. So far, that doesn't appear to be a problem!

Jonathan Levinson : 12/6/2005 11:48:34 AM

This could qualify as the right shoulder of a small intraday h&s within a topping 30 min cycle. If valid, price must not meet or exceed 42.20, the current top of the "head". Link

Linda Piazza : 12/6/2005 11:47:51 AM

The SOX is still climbing, but climbing mostly along the 7-minute reistance, not really breaking through it. That's not usually a sign of sustainable strength, but prices can follow those turning-higher Keltner resistance lines quite a while before the break lower. In this climate, no worry about sustainability seems justified, however. SOX at 507.17 as I type, with last week's high at 508.34.

Jonathan Levinson : 12/6/2005 11:41:54 AM

Volume breadth is back up to +2.5:1 on the NYSE and +2.4:1 on the Nasdaq.

Linda Piazza : 12/6/2005 11:36:52 AM

The SPX broke back above the former support, showing that it's neither support or resistance right now. The OEX still tests that resistance, at 580.95 on 7-minute closes, with the OEX currently at 580.88. The OEX has that daily and 240-minute Keltner resistance just above, too, near the day's highs, with daily at 581.74 currently and 240-minute at 581.18.

Jonathan Levinson : 12/6/2005 11:35:18 AM

QQQQ's 30 min channel top has slowed but is still rising, now up to 42.27. Session high is 42.20. Link

Jane Fox : 12/6/2005 11:35:10 AM

And of course with the TICKs climbing so is the AD volume making new daily highs. If you need to trade keep it to the long side.

Linda Piazza : 12/6/2005 11:34:23 AM

I'm watching the VIX this morning. Everything seems to be moving in relationship to the 7-minute chart, with the VIX so far finding resistance at a 7-minute Keltner line currently at 11.18. VIX at 11.10 as I type.

Jane Fox : 12/6/2005 11:34:19 AM

TICKS are climbing and the bulls are getting stronger.

Linda Piazza : 12/6/2005 11:32:01 AM

SOX maintaining support, at 506.04 currently, but with stronger support at 505.01-505.25. Resistance at 506.99-507.10 on 7-minute closes, with the SOX at 506.72 as I type and with about five minutes left in this 7-minute period.

Jane Fox : 12/6/2005 11:31:05 AM

See how benign the AD line is at +514 and how the AD volume is just lolly gagging around with no real direction. This is your recipe for chop but with a bullish bend. I would not be trading right now. Link

Linda Piazza : 12/6/2005 11:29:51 AM

The OEX and SPX haven't yet dropped all the way to the strongest support, rising before that was tested, but now testing what had served as first support, at 580.48-580.86 on the OEX and 1267.33-1267.65 on the SPX. Battle isn't over yet.

Linda Piazza : 12/6/2005 11:28:07 AM

Unlike the OEX and SPX, the TRAN never broke through the particular support setup that I was watching earlier. It's consolidating near the day's high.

Jeff Bailey : 12/6/2005 11:27:43 AM

11:00 Internals found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 12/6/2005 11:25:38 AM

The advdec line broke below first support, but has not confirmed any short-term weakness by a decline below 1000.

Jonathan Levinson : 12/6/2005 11:24:33 AM

Volume breadth is down to +2:1 on the NYSE and the Nasdaq.

Jonathan Levinson : 12/6/2005 11:23:45 AM

If the Qs are going to bounce, it should be right here at the bottom of Friday's confluence and a bottomy short cycle: Link

Linda Piazza : 12/6/2005 11:13:10 AM

The SOX needs to drop below 504.83 and stay below it to change its trend today. SOX at 505.95.

Linda Piazza : 12/6/2005 11:12:31 AM

Without a quick bounce, the OEX has lost that support I mentioned. Watch the 579.40-579.70 level for potential support, if the OEX should drop that far. Then begin watching for a potential H&S setup if the OEX should rise again to the 580.50-580.80 zone. I laid out the potential for this earlier this morning. The same setup could occur on the SPX.

Linda Piazza : 12/6/2005 11:09:47 AM

OEX dropping to test that support menitoned in my 11:05:38 post, easing just a little below it.

Linda Piazza : 12/6/2005 11:05:38 AM

Back. Everything is so far finding support where bulls would wish. No H&S setup just yet. I have to shut down for a few minutes. New levels to watch for OEX support are 580.67-580.68 and 1267.16-1267.60 for the SPX. For the advdec line, it's 1495.09, with the advdec line now at 1615, with any break below that support needing to be confirmed by a break below 1000.

Jonathan Levinson : 12/6/2005 11:05:17 AM

I'm going to great pains to ignore bearish divergences, particularly in the short cycles, because they've not been work of late. That's been the correct call for the past half hour, with price persisting at the highs as divergences lead nowhere. The short cycle is finally edging back lower within overbought territory, however, as the wavelet tries to find support. This could lead to another push up to retest the highs, or potentially R1 at 42.25, but this is becoming a very extended move on a short cycle/daytrader basis, and a push up from the wavelet could be a decent short entry. The opening gap has been tested but remains unfilled. Link

Jeff Bailey : 12/6/2005 11:03:24 AM

11:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 12/6/2005 10:49:36 AM

I'm stepping away for a few minutes.

Jonathan Levinson : 12/6/2005 10:48:59 AM

QQQQ's short cycle indicators are driving higher into overbought territory, the wavelet starting to roll over on the pullback off the high. Friday's closing high is now being tested from above, with support down to 42.07: Link

Linda Piazza : 12/6/2005 10:48:13 AM

Advdec line testing support at 1370 or so, with the advdec line at 1406. Bulls don't want to see it break below that support, and especially don't want to see it confirm that break by dropping below 1000.

Linda Piazza : 12/6/2005 10:46:33 AM

OEX bulls should be watching the same things pointed out in my 10:44:14 post with regard to the SPX: You'd like to see support above 580.36. If the OEX should fall deeper than that, say to 579.40-579.70, and then bounce, pay particular attention to the 580.30-580.50 zone, as that setup would suggest a possible H&S. So far, the OEX hasn't even dropped low enough to test first support. It's at 580.84 as I type, jammed beneath resistance on daily and 240-minute charts.

Jeff Bailey : 12/6/2005 10:45:44 AM

Bear Correction alert! ... Yesterday's action had the very broad NASDAQ Composite Bullish % ($BPCOMPQ) Link reversing back higher to "bear correction" status at 50%.

Fidelity NASDAQ Comp. Tracker (ONEQ) $89.77 +0.52% Link

Linda Piazza : 12/6/2005 10:44:14 AM

SPX turning down again. Bulls want it to find support near 1266.59-1266.84. If it falls deeper, toward 1264.50, watch for a potential bounce back up to that 1266.50-1266.70. Bulls should be particularly careful if that scenario played out, as that would then set up the potential for a H&S at the top of today's range. Bears should be, too, because the moment when a right shoulder begins rounding down has been particularly dangerous for them lately, with prices often then shooting right back up.

Linda Piazza : 12/6/2005 10:41:24 AM

The advdec line has reached a point in time in which it often coils and that's what it's doing now. This is often a good sign for bulls, but you don't want to see a five-minute close beneath Keltner support now at 1367, with the advdec line at 1496, as that would be a first hint, and "hint" only, that the coil was perhaps breaking to the downside.

Linda Piazza : 12/6/2005 10:37:23 AM

Dow 15-minute Keltner resistance at 10,897.35 on 15-minute closes, with that resistance line hit during the just concluded 15-minute period, when it was slightly lower, and it's being tested again as I type. The Dow can and does break out of this channel, both to the upside an the downside, but not that often and not that long, particularly since 11/28. Bulls don't want to see a doji printed this period, and then especially don't want a strong pullback the next, but the SOX's second 15-minute period printed a doji today, and then started a pullback, but then the SOX pushed to a new high. Don't trust what you think may happen. Potential reversal signals are not following through this morning, not yet.

Jonathan Levinson : 12/6/2005 10:36:24 AM

Volume breadth is up to +2.6:1 on the NYSE, +3.05:1 on the Nasdaq. The NYSE TRIN is at the low-end of neutral-bullish at .68, ditto the TRINQ at .6.

Jeff Bailey : 12/6/2005 10:34:06 AM

Current OPEN MM Profiles found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 12/6/2005 10:30:42 AM

OEX facing daily and 240-minute Keltner resistance, at 581.69 and 581.16, on closes, of course. This is after the OEX broke out of this particular channel earlier, fell back and now rises to retest that resistance, to see if it holds this time. The breakout and retest and second climb would seem to suggest a continued climb today, but if in bullish plays on that breakout or the retest, remain aware of this resistance. The SOX has not hit a new HOD yet. Neither has the advdec line. I honestly don't know how to evaluate this resistance, with everything from the five-minute chart to the daily one showing that it's resistance, but with the OEX's action with relationship to that long-term formation showing more gains are possible. Which should be believed?

Jeff Bailey : 12/6/2005 10:28:19 AM

OEX.X 581.03 +0.43% ... top25 breadth now 20:5 (MSFT -0.10%, BAC -0.27%, JNJ -0.13%, PFE -0.46%, KO -0.35%)

Jonathan Levinson : 12/6/2005 10:27:43 AM

QQQQ's short cycle indicators have entered overbought territory as price exceeds Friday's closing high, still holding well above all intraday channels and testing yesterday's pivot resistance: Link

Jeff Bailey : 12/6/2005 10:27:09 AM

VXO.X 10.85 -0.82% ... this narrower measure of volatility and put/call activity now lower, following the broader VIX.X 11.17 -3.70%.

Linda Piazza : 12/6/2005 10:25:57 AM

New HOD for the OEX. No new HOD for the advdec line yet. Still bearish divergence on the five-minute chart. Five-minute resistance next at 581.37, fifteen-minute at 580.94 on fifteen-minute closes.

Jane Fox : 12/6/2005 10:23:59 AM

AD volume is making new daily highs and the bulls are back in the drivers seat. It may be one of those days when control is batted back and forth between the bulls and the bears so keep your eye on the AD volume for hints that the bulls are losing control but for now they have the reins.

Linda Piazza : 12/6/2005 10:23:20 AM

OEX 15-minute Keltner resistance, a resistance line that usually contains most movements, at 580.89 on 15-minute closes. OEX at 580.72 as I type.

Linda Piazza : 12/6/2005 10:22:07 AM

First 5-minute Keltner resistance for the OEX at 580.45 and then at 581.31. OEX at 580.73, with four minutes left in the current five-minute period, testing the previous HOD. Bearish divergence so far on that five-minute chart.

Jane Fox : 12/6/2005 10:21:48 AM

Buyers are back TICK +800.

Jonathan Levinson : 12/6/2005 10:21:17 AM

QQQQ - Exit Point Alert -

Stopped QQQQ short from 42.09 for breakeven.

Jeff Bailey : 12/6/2005 10:24:58 AM

S&P 100 Index (OEX.X) Top 25 weighted components at this Link ... breadth positive at 17 : 8.

Note: SBC Communications recently completed its merger with AT&T and kept the AT&T name/trading symbol. Current price reflects that of the previous SBC shares and 5-day, 20-day and YrNet% would be incorrect.

Jonathan Levinson : 12/6/2005 10:20:37 AM

No further word from the Fed, and so it looks like a net 5B drain for the day.

Linda Piazza : 12/6/2005 10:20:30 AM

There's a little inverse H&S on the OEX's one-minute chart, nearly completed. The OEX needs to pop above 580.06 and stay above it to confirm it, I believe, with the OEX now at 579.94. The upside target looks to be at about 580.59, if fulfilled, and would constitute a retest of the day's high.

The OEX just confirmed that formation.

Jonathan Levinson : 12/6/2005 10:18:51 AM

Session high for 10 year notes at 108 21/32, with TNX down to a .5 bp loss at 4.517%.

Jonathan Levinson : 12/6/2005 10:16:49 AM

Volume breadth is +1.75:1 on the NYSE, +2.75:1 on the Nasdaq.

Linda Piazza : 12/6/2005 10:17:16 AM

So far, I'm just not seeing signs of particular very short-term strength in the advdec line or definitive signs that it's through retracing, but the fact remains that the OEX broke out, dropped down to retest its former resistance and now is attempting a rise. The SOX performed similarly, although five-minute resistance is trying to firm up just overhead.

Jeff Bailey : 12/6/2005 10:15:22 AM

10:00 Internals found at this Link

Yesterday's Internals found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 12/6/2005 10:11:19 AM

SOX bouncing from five-minute Keltner support at 502.68-502.81, but also from the bottom of yesterday's gap lower, at 502.78. Five-minute resistance is at 504.33-505.27 on closes. SOX at 503.38.

Jonathan Levinson : 12/6/2005 10:10:36 AM

Headlines:

JAN NATURAL GAS DOWN 6C, OR 0.4%, AT $13.60/MLN BTUS

JAN CRUDE FALLS 11C TO $59.80/BRL IN EARLY NY TRADE

Linda Piazza : 12/6/2005 10:09:10 AM

Advdec line still dropping. This is the reason that I didn't want to play a breakout play, but wanted instead to see a pullback and how it looked. As the advdec line drops, the OEX is already attempting a bounce from the descending trendline off the 11/23 low. This bounce is starting from the lower, best-fit version of that trendline, not the new one drawn when the 12/01 high violated the trendline by a little, so it's still likely the old trendline, now at about 579.40, that seems to matter most. OEX at 579.82 as I type, falling back a little from five-minute Keltner resistance at 579.93, but not confirming any even momentary weakness by a five-minute close beneath 579.63.

Jonathan Levinson : 12/6/2005 10:07:34 AM

QQQQ chops sideways-lower, still holding above the upper 30 and 60 min channel tops and the opening gap up: Link

Jeff Bailey : 12/6/2005 10:03:48 AM

Sell Program Premium ... DIA $108.63, SPX 1,264.54, QQQQ $42.00

Jonathan Levinson : 12/6/2005 10:03:19 AM

No further action from the Fed yet. If there's going to be another repo, it should be announced within the next 10-15 minutes max.

Jeff Bailey : 12/6/2005 10:03:06 AM

10:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 12/6/2005 10:02:49 AM

The SOX tests Keltner resistance from 504.28-505.34 on 15-minute closes, with the SOX at 503.27 as I type. The SOX's just completed 15-minute candle was a doji, sitting on top of the previous tall white candle, the second in a possible three-candle reversal signal. Currently, the SOX turns lower, but it needs to fall steeply to confirm that reversal signal. It especially needs to fall back below 502.78, yesterday's high and gap-down level.

Jonathan Levinson : 12/6/2005 10:02:37 AM

Ten year note yields are down 3.8 bps at 4.529%, 13-week rates are +.7 bps at 3.917%, flattening the yield curve.

Jonathan Levinson : 12/6/2005 10:01:44 AM

Hedlines:

U.S. OCT. PENDING HOME SALES INDEX FALLS 3.2%

U.S. OCT. PENDING HOME SALES DOWN 3.3% YEAR-ON-YEAR

U.S. OCT. FACTORY ORDERS UP 2.2% VS 2.1% FORECAST

U.S. SEPT. FACTORY ORDER DOWN REVISED 1.4% VS 1.7% PREV

U.S. OCT. DURABLE ORDERS UP REVISED UP 3.7% VS 3.4% PREV

U.S. OCT. FACTORY ORDERS EX-TRANSPORTATION UP 0.6%

Jane Fox : 12/6/2005 10:01:43 AM

These are in sync today so they should help with your trading. Right now they are bearish but stalled just like the AD line and volume. Link

Jeff Bailey : 12/6/2005 10:00:38 AM

DIA / DJX Options Montage found at this Link

VXO.X 11.01 +0.63%

VIX.X 11.29 -2.67%

Linda Piazza : 12/6/2005 9:59:40 AM

OEX trying to steady, too, at the trendline off the 11/23 high. This is what bulls want to see, but even bears could have expected this. I think it likely that there's a bounce attempt, but if the OEX begins making five-minute closes beneath the Keltner line currently at 579.53, that increases the chance that it will fall further, toward 578.50-578.86 before bouncing. OEX at 579.84 as I type, clinging to five-minute support at 579.82.

Linda Piazza : 12/6/2005 9:57:44 AM

Advdec line still dropping. It set up all the parameters for a pop-and-drop day, but unfortunately, those can also be the parameters for a trend-higher-all-day day. It just depends on where this pullback takes it and how it acts afterwards. So far, the advdec line pullback still looks between corrective and something a bit more impulsive. It started off rather steep but then is trying to steady.

Jeff Bailey : 12/6/2005 9:56:26 AM

SPY / SPX Options Montage found at this Link

VIX.X 11.29 -2.67%

Jonathan Levinson : 12/6/2005 9:56:06 AM

QQQQ - Stop Loss Adjustment Alert -

QQQQ short from 42.09, move stop to breakeven

Jonathan Levinson : 12/6/2005 9:54:49 AM

Awaiting Factory Orders at 10AM, est. 2.2%.

Jonathan Levinson : 12/6/2005 9:54:21 AM

The Fed announces a 6.75B 2-day repo, which results in a net drain of 5B against the 11B expiring. However, there's still time for an overnight repo to supplement it. The highest rate submitted was 4%, right on the current overnight target rate. However, we can expect the Fed to begin walking the rate higher toward its expected 4.25% overnight target for the next rate meeting scheduled for next week.

Linda Piazza : 12/6/2005 9:53:37 AM

Advdec line drops. Strongest support is near the flat-line level, but there is other support above that, beginning at the current 1530 zone.

Linda Piazza : 12/6/2005 9:52:33 AM

Here's the test. The OEX has pulled back to the former descending trendline off the 11/23 high. Keltner picture: If the OEX can close this 15-minute period above support now at 580.07, another push higher to test the resistance at 580.75 might be suggested. If the OEX closes the period below that 580.07 support, it might be likely to drop further, into a test of 578.80-578.90 support. OEX at 579.92 as I type.

Jane Fox : 12/6/2005 9:51:22 AM

Ad line is now falling and AD volume is stalling. The VIX is making new daily highs matching ES's new daily lows so the wheels are coming off the bull's wagon.

Jonathan Levinson : 12/6/2005 9:48:55 AM

Volume breadth eases to +1.7:1 on the NYSE, +2.94:1 on the Nasdaq.

Jonathan Levinson : 12/6/2005 9:46:11 AM

Session low for QQQQ at 42.02, still above its 30 and 60 min channel tops: Link

Linda Piazza : 12/6/2005 9:44:33 AM

The TRAN shot higher today, too. It's pulling back slightly, but not much yet. It can be a fast runner, so might give some insight on the pullback, if one occurs. If it drops precipitously, we could get a heads-up on the OEX, but so far, the TRAN's pullback is as slightly and corrective-looking as the OEX's. I'm not sure yet that there won't be another push before the pullback.

Jeff Bailey : 12/6/2005 9:43:05 AM

Meridian Gold (MDG) $19.61 -0.80% Link ... RBC cuts its rating to "underperform" from "sector perform."

Jane Fox : 12/6/2005 9:42:04 AM

The VIX gapped down this morning matching ES's gap up so that duck is sitting in a row along with the AD line/volume.

Linda Piazza : 12/6/2005 9:41:50 AM

OEX testing 14-minute Keltner resistance at 580.68 on 15-minute closes, with the OEX at 580.43 as I type. There should be a pullback, perhaps to the trendline that it broke through earlier. That's what bulls hope to see, while bears hope to see a stronger pullback. Advdec line not pulling back yet, but has reached levels from thish a pullback could begin. If markets weren't showing such underpinning lately, this would be a good place to test a scalping OEX bearish play, but I'm frankly afraid of it, and not sure how long I can stay at the monitor with my granddaughter ill.

Linda Piazza : 12/6/2005 9:37:57 AM

SOX charging higher. At 505.22 as I type, with Monday's high at 508.34 and with the rising regression channel's resistance at about 511 currently. The 240-minute chart shows Keltner resistance at 506.41 on 240-minute closes, with that resistance still rising and being nudged higher by the SOX's rise. There's still bearish divergence on that chart.

Jonathan Levinson : 12/6/2005 9:37:14 AM

Looks like potentially bad data on the open, with the SOX now quoted at 504.55 and joining the QQQQ at yesterday's highs.

Linda Piazza : 12/6/2005 9:35:24 AM

Advdec line already extended to the topside, all the way through the 30-minute chart. This is either a trend-higher-all-day type setup, or a pop-and-drop, and I don't have enough information yet to say which. We need a pullback to gauge how it performs. There should be a pullback after some follow-through to the topside. The advdec line is wildly extended to the topside on the five-minute chart.

Jonathan Levinson : 12/6/2005 9:33:41 AM

Volume breadth is +2.4:1 on the NYSE, +5.5:1 on the Nasdaq at the open.

Linda Piazza : 12/6/2005 9:33:12 AM

The OEX has broken through that trendline now, through the triangle it's been building, through the neckline of the inverse H&S it's been building. It has not confirmed with a 15-minute close above the Keltner resistance now at 580.63, with that usually being strong resistance.

Jeff Bailey : 12/6/2005 9:34:30 AM

Linda ... The Shadow Open Market Committee is a "watchdog" group that monitors, then comments on FOMC policy.

I also made note (12/05/2005 5:41:38) about the group's comments.

I took it as if they were saying the Fed shood keep its "measured pace" stance toward interest rate hikes.

Jonathan Levinson : 12/6/2005 9:32:45 AM

QQQQ - Entry Point Alert -

Short QQQQ at 42.09, stop stop 42.20

Jonathan Levinson : 12/6/2005 9:32:03 AM

Note that the SOX has gapped down to 494.90, a big divergence from the Qs.

Linda Piazza : 12/6/2005 9:31:40 AM

The advdec line opens at support and climbs. The OEX is testing that descending trendline off the 11/23 high, with the highest version of that trendline now at 579.80 and with the OEX at 579.65.

Jonathan Levinson : 12/6/2005 9:31:23 AM

QQQQ's 72 SMA is at 41.77, 30 and 60 min channel resistance at 41.95, support at 41.60. Link

Jonathan Levinson : 12/6/2005 9:24:41 AM

QQQQ's 30 min cycle has turned up from above oversold territory, the 60 min cycle downphase stalling but not yet turning up. Unless this opening gap reverses quickly at the open, yesterday's daily cycle downtick will whipsaw again, and extend what is now clearly an overbought trending move in the daily cycle. I will update the intraday channel and SMA levels at the open.

Linda Piazza : 12/6/2005 8:58:59 AM

I read a report in my forex news service today that the "Shadow Open Market Committee," whatever that might be, believes that the Fed is not taking appropriate measures to combat inflation, allowing it to climb. This committee, of which Lee Hoskins, former Cleveland Fed president, appears to be a member, reportedly thinks that the Fed has to become more aggressive and might have to play catchup.

Linda Piazza : 12/6/2005 8:54:17 AM

I lied. I thought yesterday was likely going to be the day that the OEX finally broke one direction or the other, but instead it narrowed into a triangle. Near the close, it attempted an unconvincing upside breakout of yesterday's triangle, but hasn't broken through the larger triangle in which it trades, at about 577.48 on the downside and 579.53-579.76 on the upside. Unconvincing breakout or not yesterday afternoon, futures suggest that markets will move higher this morning.

If the OEX should break to the upside out of that larger triangle, bounded on the upside by the descending trendline off the 11/23 high, it will soon face Keltner resistance that usually holds it back, at 580.42 on 15-minute closes. If it breaks to the downside, it will soon face Keltner support that often supports it, at 576.56 on 15-minute closes. Further support lies at about 575.15, at the appropriate right-shoulder level for an inverse H&S forming along the descending trendline off the 11/23 high, and then at last week's low.

Charts are a mess. The best idea might be to wait for a breakout one direction or the other and then a successful retest to show that it wasn't a fake-out move. However, I'm not so sure there will be that retest in this case, with energy building for a breakout move one direction or the other since 11/23. I'll tell you what I see when the markets open.

Jonathan Levinson : 12/6/2005 8:39:08 AM

ES has turned its 30/60 min channels up and is testing upper channel resistance of 1267.50, but following yesterday's decline, there's room for these channels to continue climbing as long a price holds above the 72 SMA at 1263.5: Link

Jonathan Levinson : 12/6/2005 8:31:33 AM

QQQQ climbs to a .14 gain at 41.94, ten year notes at a session high of 108 27/64, TNX now down 1.6 bps at 4.551%.

Jonathan Levinson : 12/6/2005 8:30:52 AM

Headlines:

8:30am U.S. REAL HOURLY COMPENSATION UP 1.2% IN PAST YEAR

8:30am U.S. UNIT LABOR COSTS UP 1.8% IN PAST YEAR

8:30am U.S. PRODUCTIVITY UP 3.1% IN PAST YEAR

8:30am U.S. 2Q UNIT LABOR COSTS REVISED TO -1.2% VS. UP 1.8%

Jonathan Levinson : 12/6/2005 8:25:24 AM

Ten year notes are up, TNX quoted -1.4 bps at 4.553% at the cash open as we await the Productivity data.

Jonathan Levinson : 12/6/2005 7:56:27 AM

Headlines:

7:53am U.S. CHAIN STORE SALES UP 3.5% Y-O-Y VS. 5.1%

7:53am U.S. WEEKLY RETAIL CHAIN STORE SALES FALL 3.1%: ICSC

Jonathan Levinson : 12/6/2005 7:29:04 AM

Equities are up, ES trading 1265.75, NQ 17025.5, YM 10865 and QQQQ +.07 at 41.87. Gold is down .10 at 512.30, silver -.051 at 8.681, ten year notes are up 5/64 to 108 25/64, crude oil is down .225 to 59.675 and natgas is down .22 to 13.44.

We await the 8:30 release of Productivity for Q3, est. 4.5%, and at 10AM, Factory Orders, est. 2.2%.

Linda Piazza : 12/6/2005 6:28:22 AM

Good morning. The Nikkei fell last night, but other Asian markets were mixed. European markets climb, some testing recent highs. As of 6:22 EST, gold was higher by $0.20 to $512.80, and crude, lower by $0.31 to $59.60. More details about Asian and European markets follows in succeeding paragraphs.

Last night, the Nikkei headed lower in early trading, attempted to move into positive territory and then fell through the afternoon. It closed lower by 127.93 points or 0.82%, at 15,423.38. October's all-households spending rose 2.0% year over year, ahead of the forecast 1.5% rise. Month over month, the number dropped 0.1%, but the year-over-year number indicates that consumer spending is recovering. A survey of 10 private-sector economic research institutes concluded that Japan's GDP for the quarter ending in September might be revised higher, to 2.2% annualized growth. In trading, tech stocks tended to decline, while financials were reportedly boosted by a Goldman Sachs upgrade on some large banks.

Other Asian markets were mixed. The Taiwan Weighted gained 0.03%, and South Korea's Kospi rose 0.45%. The Bank of Korea forecast a 5.0% acceleration in GDP growth in 2006, up from this year's 3.9%, and said 2006's unemployment rate will ease to 3.6% from this year's projected 3.8%. The central bank believes that CPI will rise 3%, up from this year's 2.7%. Singapore's Straits Times dropped 1.04%, and Hong Kong's Hang Seng fell 1.11%. Several IPOs are planned for the Hong Kong market, and some funds may be withdrawn from other issues to prepare for those IPOs, some theorize. China's Shanghai Composite rose 0.80%.

European markets gain, with the FTSE 100 and DAX retesting highs hit late Friday and early yesterday, but with the CAC 40 already above that level. A couple of economic numbers related to retailing have been released. Last night, figures showed that the U.K.'s November like-for-like retail sales rose 0.8% year over year, the first rise in eight months. Total sales also climbed. The Bloomberg Eurozone retail PMI for November showed an increase to 50.7 from October's 50.4. The country-by-country breakdown showed France and Germany below 50 and Italy rebounding. Input prices rose, trimming margins, and employment remained shaky. Today in the U.K., October's (manufacturing?) output was a disappointment. Germany's October factory orders are due later.

Financials do well in Europe, too, with HBOS raising expectations for the year. Oil majors declined in early trading, but have moved higher currently. Telecoms are mixed, with France Telecom currently turning lower, but many started the day positive. Bayer had traded in negative territory after it announced that it would set aside 275 million euros for civil antitrust actions in the U.S. and that additional funds might be necessary, but the company's stock is now inching higher, in positive territory. Dutch delivery group TNT gained attention, at one point up as much as 4.6%, with the company announcing a share buyback and its intention to sell its logistics unit. As of the time this report was prepared, it was up only 1.2%.

As of 6:18 EST, the FTSE 100 was higher by 11.90 points or 0.22%, at 5,522.30. The CAC 40 was higher by 14.97 points or 0.32%, at 4,665.51. The DAX was higher by 28.94 points or 0.55%, at 5,295.80.

Market Monitor Archives