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Tab Gilles : 12/14/2005 11:03:11 PM

XTO Followup to 3:56PM post on XTO. Up in afterhours (ECN): $47.49 0.52 (1.11%) /Last Trade: $46.97 Change: 0.74 (1.60%) Link Link

OI Technical Staff : 12/14/2005 9:59:59 PM

The Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

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Jeff Bailey : 12/14/2005 5:06:33 PM

04:12 PM EST Temperatures with January Nat. Gas and Heating Oil benchmarks at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 12/14/2005 5:03:19 PM

Closing Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 12/14/2005 4:50:05 PM

Closing U.S. Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 12/14/2005 5:17:23 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles found at this Link

Today's Activity ... Swing trade closed out the S&P 500 SPX Dec. 1,255 Puts (SZP-XK) at the bid of $1.00 ($-0.40, or -28.57%)

Swing trade long the Toll Brothers TOL Jan. $40 Calls (TOL-AH) at the offer of $1.20. Targeting $43.00 in the underlying shares. (see 02:22:21, 02:37:23 and perhaps 03:05:14)

Jeff Bailey : 12/14/2005 4:13:42 PM

Buy Program Premium ... DIA $108.97, SPY $127.82

Jeff Bailey : 12/14/2005 4:04:18 PM

Abgenix (ABGX) $14.65 +3.24% Link ... surges to $20.69 in extended session, now halted.

Amgen (AMGN) $76.78 -0.87% Link ... to buy for $22.50 per share.

That explans the recent weakness in AMGN.

Tab Gilles : 12/14/2005 3:56:00 PM

Several oil stocks hitting resistance.

UPL Link Link XTO Link Link

MUR Link Link

Linda Piazza : 12/14/2005 3:51:53 PM

The OEX again tests the five-minute Keltner support that has bounced it all day, at 581.13 on five-minute closes. OEX at 581.22.

Linda Piazza : 12/14/2005 3:47:42 PM

End-of-day decisions: This is going to be a difficult update for me because I have grave misgivings about what I'm seeing, especially with the VIX reaching levels last seen on 11/22, with the OEX climbing the next day into the November high but then pulling back deeply from there. The VIX is not a good market-timing tool, as I've noted all day, and it can go lower, and the OEX doesn't always move in complete lockstep with the VIX anyway. I'm seeing some similarities, too, in the setup seen August 10 and 11, not in VIX levels, although the VIX was hitting a sort of swing low then, but in candlestick formations and MACD setup. So, there are my reservations and they are grave ones. In addition, tomorrow morning, we have important numbers that could change the market reaction. Also, so far, depending on what happens into the close, the descending trendline off the 11/23 high, through the 12/06 high, holds as resistance, although the OEX pierced it. That trendline is at about 582.20 as I type. With today's action incorporated, I've let QCharts draw a new descending regression channel off that 11/23 high, and the OEX is not currently above that, either, with the top now at about 582.40. As I type, the OEX appears to be turning down from that resistance.

The trouble is, of course, that all our charts are crisscrossed with all kinds of formations. We draw one and think its support or resistance is going to hold, and the OEX trades right across it, sometimes both directions.

So, if long, I'd be thinking about whether I wanted to risk my profits overnight or whether I wanted to take some steps to lock in some profit. If you're thinking about a new bearish position the OEX's current position appears to be one place you might try such a position but there's no real evidence except "maybe" stuff to support it as yet.

Jeff Bailey : 12/14/2005 3:44:15 PM

Washington Mutual (WM) $44.66 +4.00% Link ... bold move today and notable new 52-weeker at the big board. Volume brisk at 9.03 million shares.

Jonathan Levinson : 12/14/2005 3:44:03 PM

Biggest 3-min volume candle on the Qs today: Link

Jonathan Levinson : 12/14/2005 3:42:48 PM

Very weak short cycle downphase for the past hour and a half, and price continues to hold above the 72 SMA. Volume is weak at 60.6M QQQQs so far, and I don't trust what looks like a growing launchpad on the weak corrective pullback. So long as QQQQ holds at or below 42, I'm more inclined to trust the interests of those who are net short Dec. 42 calls than the price cycles here. Link

Tab Gilles : 12/14/2005 3:38:24 PM

+20 Year Treasury Bond iShare (TLT) 60 min.. Link daily.. Link weekly.. Link

2 call options that I'm look at at, that I mentioned on 12/9 4:18PM TLTCK Link & TLTFL Link .

Jeff Bailey : 12/14/2005 3:37:34 PM

Lost my Internet connection for about 30-minutes.

Jeff Bailey : 12/14/2005 3:37:10 PM

03:00 Internals found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 12/14/2005 3:27:13 PM

There's a definite divergence in the OEX's behavior and the advdec line's. The advdec line has fallen back more deeply and now finds resistance, at least temporarily, at a lower Keltner level. May not mean a thing, of course.

Linda Piazza : 12/14/2005 3:26:01 PM

Next 15-minute Keltner resistance at 582.24-582.58. OEX at 581.84.

Jonathan Levinson : 12/14/2005 3:18:31 PM

Volume breadth is up to +2.3:1 on the NYSE, +1.1:1 on the Nasdaq as QQQQ bounces from 72 SMA support. This confirms the 30 min cycle upturn, and if the bulls have enough gas in the tank to take out the previous 42.05 high, then the bears will have a problem as the intraday cycles confirm their upturns from higher lows. Link

Linda Piazza : 12/14/2005 3:15:48 PM

OEX headed down toward a test of the five-minute Keltner support that has prompted bounces all day, with that support at 580.98 on five-minute closes. A close beneath that would be a minor change in trend, but it would be a change. OEX at 581.35, hugging the top of the descending regression channel off the 11/23 high as QCharts draws it. Note--the OEX began bouncing again as I typed, and is now at 581.61.

Jane Fox : 12/14/2005 3:11:32 PM

Look out bears Ad volume to new daily highs.

Jeff Bailey : 12/14/2005 3:06:52 PM

03:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 12/14/2005 3:03:39 PM

Until the OEX closes a five-minute period below the Keltner support currently at 580.94, it has not changed today's trend even in the slightest degree. OEX at 581.52.

Jeff Bailey : 12/14/2005 3:05:14 PM

April Fed Fund futures (ff06j) alert Link ... Dr. Ben Bernanke will be at the helm. MARKET currently predicting less than 50% chance of two more 25 bp rate hikes.

Tab Gilles : 12/14/2005 3:01:26 PM

Forgot to include this chart on 2:38:51 PM post for PFE weekly. Link

Linda Piazza : 12/14/2005 2:58:01 PM

The OEX dropped past first Keltner support, all the way down to 581.10 support, and is bouncing back to retest the level it dropped through, at 581.40 on 15-minute closes. The OEX is at 581.42 as I type.

Jonathan Levinson : 12/14/2005 2:57:16 PM

For those who follow the Vtoreport sentiment charts, they're updated as of yesterday at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 12/14/2005 2:56:36 PM

Volume breadth +1.9:1 on the NYSE, -1.6:1 on the Nasdaq.

Linda Piazza : 12/14/2005 2:47:35 PM

SOX at 501.88 and the 503-503.25-ish resistance has held again. Support near here on 15-minute closes, however. Bears want a deeper push.

Jonathan Levinson : 12/14/2005 2:45:28 PM

The tape isn't respecting the 30/60 min channel configurations at this point, but the wavelet and short cycle indicators have beem working. QQQQ is back to the now-rising 72 SMA at 41.89, the wavelet now oversold as the short cycle indicators roll over. A weak bounce to a lower high should set us up for the next drop through 72 SMA support. Link

Linda Piazza : 12/14/2005 2:43:56 PM

The OEX's 15-minute Keltner resistance held. The OEX comes down to test first support, at 581.39, but with other support from 580.57-581.00. OEX at 581.60 as I type.

Tab Gilles : 12/14/2005 2:38:51 PM

Pfizer (PFE) Link Link

Jeff Bailey : 12/14/2005 2:37:23 PM

DJ US Home Construction (DJUSHB) 961.64 +2.66% Link

Jonathan Levinson : 12/14/2005 2:35:56 PM

Crude oil finished -.50 at 60.875, natgas -.695 at 14.685. Closing 100-tick chart of crude oil at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 12/14/2005 2:33:25 PM

Toll Brothers (TOL) $37.91 +3.80% ... bar chart at this Link

Linda Piazza : 12/14/2005 2:32:59 PM

Next Keltner support for the OEX at 581.43 on 15-minute closes.

Linda Piazza : 12/14/2005 2:28:35 PM

When considering your positions for the rest of today and tomorrow, remember that the last time the VIX was as low as it has been today was on 11/22. The OEX was to hit its November high the next day, so it doesn't mean that we can use this to market-time a trade, but near 2:30 on the 23rd, it started tumbled off the 584.30-ish level and it didn't stop finally until the 30th, although there was a good-sized bounce into a lower high through there. Remember that we have important economic numbers tomorrow morning, too.

Linda Piazza : 12/14/2005 2:23:24 PM

The OEX has met and even exceeded by a little the upside target from its confirmed inverse H&S on its 15-minute chart, with that formation setting up beginning on the 7th. The upside target was near 581.40, if I figured it correctly. The OEX high has been 582.64. That may be one of the reasons for the pause, among others.

Jonathan Levinson : 12/14/2005 2:22:35 PM

No such luck, Marc- tomorrow's Thursday.

Jeff Bailey : 12/14/2005 2:22:21 PM

Bullish swing trade call option alert ... taking two (2) of the Toll Brother TOL Jan $40 Calls (TOL-AH) at the offer of $1.10.

Toll Brother (TOL) $38.03 +4.13% here. Link

Jonathan Levinson : 12/14/2005 2:21:13 PM

Volume breadth strong at +2.3:1 on the NYSE, -1.2:1 on the Nasdaq. On both exchanges, the pullback is coming from very overbought short cycle indicators, but they're not rolling over yet- so far it's just the wavelets pulling down, and the price traction is weak, looking more like a bull flag than the start of something bigger. Link

Linda Piazza : 12/14/2005 2:15:52 PM

SOX at 502.62, with 503-503.25-ish resistance still holding so far.

Linda Piazza : 12/14/2005 2:14:48 PM

It looks as if that 15-minute OEX Keltner resistance is going to hold again into this close, with the OEX printing another candle that left a long shadow behind. Resistance at 582.37 and the OEX is currently at 582.34.

Jeff Bailey : 12/14/2005 2:13:04 PM

02:00 Internals found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 12/14/2005 2:10:27 PM

OEX again testing that 15-minute Keltner resistance, now at 582.37 on 15-minute closes. OEX at 582.50 as I type.

Linda Piazza : 12/14/2005 2:08:27 PM

Hmm. I just turned to the SOX's daily Keltner chart. I hadn't looked at it earlier when I said it looked about equally likely that 503-ish resistance would hold as that the SOX would keep climbing. The SOX has daily Keltner resistance at 502.93, currently being tested.

Linda Piazza : 12/14/2005 2:06:48 PM

So far, the SOX's 503-ish resistance has held. In my 1:54:55 post, I noted that as a possibility, but if you're bullish the SOX, you can find lots of reasons to believe it's still going to push past that, including its breakout above a descending trendline off yesterday's high. I can see competing bullish and bearish signs, and all I can say for sure is that the SOX hasn't been the leader today, but rather a follower. That's not usually a great sign for the general market health, but other indices have taken over, including the RLX.

Jonathan Levinson : 12/14/2005 2:04:13 PM

Volume breadth is +2.25:1 on the NYSE, -1.25:1 on the Nasdaq.

Jeff Bailey : 12/14/2005 2:03:52 PM

02:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 12/14/2005 2:03:41 PM

QQQQ has pulled back from its upside channel breach, but is finding support above 41.97. The short cycle upphase is stalling, but it's all occurring within that new 30 min channel upphase. On a normal day, that would suggest a weak/corrective short cycle downphase- only a strong drop through 41.87 would whipsaw the 30 min channel back down from here. Link

Linda Piazza : 12/14/2005 2:02:44 PM

The advdec line has climbed all the way to extreme levels again on the upside, but it hasn't declined much yet and it may not. Just another sign to be careful, moving those stops up under bullish plays.

Linda Piazza : 12/14/2005 2:00:14 PM

I feel silly for saying this, but careful, bulls. The OEX's 15-minute Keltner resistance at 582.30 may be holding into this 15-minute close. If the OEX leaves the current big upper shadow behind that pierced that resistance, it will show that resistance held, and this is coupled with bearish divergence, and the OEX usually does retreat at least a little when it's printed candles like that at the top of a climb. And perhaps none of that means anything. OEX at 582.07.

Linda Piazza : 12/14/2005 1:56:46 PM

The OEX is at 60-minute resistance at 581.65-581.81 on 60-minute closes, so bulls don't want to see the OEX pull back below that by the end of this 60-minute period, as that would suggest that the resistance is holding. OEX at 582.48 as I type.

Linda Piazza : 12/14/2005 1:54:54 PM

The SOX bounces more strongly this time from that 15-minute Keltner support at 498.98-499.19 on 15-minute closes. It's bounced up to potential resistance near 503, just a little above that as I type. However, when bouncing this time, it broke above the descending trendline off yesterday's high, perhaps confirming that the formation could have been a bull flag pullback off that high. I see conflicting evidence and it appears just as likely to me that the SOX will find resistance near 503 as that it will keep climbing.

Jonathan Levinson : 12/14/2005 1:53:35 PM

Volume breadth goes positive, and the upturn in the 30 min channel is the real deal. The short cycle is not yet maxxed out to the upside, and while the upside channel break is a sell signal, I'm not taking it because the 30 min cycle is nowhere near overbought. Link

Linda Piazza : 12/14/2005 1:52:06 PM

Same song, second verse. The OEX hits 15-minute Keltner resistance at 582.29 on 15-minute closes, and there's bearish divergence, but it just doesn't matter. Bulls, keep following the OEX higher with your stops, but that's your only task for now.

Jeff Bailey : 12/14/2005 1:49:21 PM

QQQQ at $42.00

Jeff Bailey : 12/14/2005 1:49:01 PM

SPX 1,274.76 +0.56% ... new 52-weeker, multi year highs.

Linda Piazza : 12/14/2005 1:47:24 PM

The RLX is helping to send the OEX higher.

Jeff Bailey : 12/14/2005 1:46:58 PM

General Cable (BGC) $19.79 -2.84% Link ... Came close to its bullish vertical count. I lost track of stock's impressive gains, but my buddy called me last night (he's a sales manager for BGC) and he was asking me if I saw the stock's price action yesterday.

I did a quick check and company recently called in a convertible and short interest was big, nearly 16 days to cover as of November 15.

In a nutshell, if anyone still holding long from late August profile as a "Hurricane play," I'd advise taking profits!

Linda Piazza : 12/14/2005 1:46:34 PM

Back. The OEX has just now punched through the top of its rising wedge shape (and thereby another "bearish" rising wedge bites the dust) and also tests the top of the descending regression channel off the 11/23 high as QCharts has drawn it. This is such a useless warning these days, but this move comes exactly at the prime stop-running time of day that I used to see so often and so bull should be careful that prices don't soon move back into that rising wedge and that descending regression channel, and that the VIX doesn't jump, although it's not a good market-timing tool, as I've said.

Jonathan Levinson : 12/14/2005 1:46:16 PM

QQQQ breaches upper 30 min channel resistance, but that channel is very early in its upturn and the short cycle indicators are only starting to enter overbought territory. Link

Jonathan Levinson : 12/14/2005 1:32:22 PM

Neither the 30 nor 60 min cycles were even close to oversold before the bounce kicked in, and while the short cycle upphase is so far timid and on lighter volumer, price has just risen easily back through yesterday's pre-FOMC range. Breadth remains negative, and the put-to-call ratio at the Dec. 42 strike continues to suggest resistance at 42. Link

Jeff Bailey : 12/14/2005 1:24:03 PM

SPX 1,271.98 +0.35% ... the SXP-XK now $0.65 x $1.05.

Once the QQQQ $41.93 -0.28% got back above WEEKLY Pivot/Daily S1, that looked to be it.

Linda Piazza : 12/14/2005 1:22:11 PM

Stepping away for a few minutes. The typical stop-running time of day approaches, so be careful here. As I type, the OEX is trying to erase that Keltner-style bearish divergence, but hasn't quite done it. The rising wedge's resistanceis up at about 581.37.

Jonathan Levinson : 12/14/2005 1:20:13 PM

Ten year notes hold their big gains, with the yield (TNX) down 9 bps here at 4.445%, flatter against the 13-week rate (IRX), down 2.5 bps at 3.802%.

Linda Piazza : 12/14/2005 1:19:47 PM

The advdec line no longer follows Monday's pattern. The last bounce was too high.

Jeff Bailey : 12/14/2005 1:15:52 PM

01:00 Internals found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 12/14/2005 1:14:04 PM

For what it's worth, the bearish Keltner-style divergence tentatively continues on the OEX.

Linda Piazza : 12/14/2005 1:10:23 PM

The OEX is showing Keltner-style bearish divergence with each five-minute swing high. That won't matter a bit to bears if it breaks higher, will it? It might break higher, too, because if the OEX's pattern since the Fed decision yesterday resembles anything, it's a rising wedge. That's typically bearish (not really, not any longer) but the OEX could still rise within that wedge even if it is going to eventually break down. However, that Keltner-style bearish divergence does offer a warning to bulls to protect positions, whether or not that warning is needed. The OEX is testing five-minute resistance at 580.34-580.71 on five-minute closes. If the Keltner style bearish divergence is to continue, the OEX won't get too far above that resistance, and preferably, won't get above it at all. OEX at 580.70 as I type.

Jonathan Levinson : 12/14/2005 1:06:43 PM

Volume breadth has recovered to -2:1 on the Nasdaq, rising to +1.66:1 on the NYSE.

Jeff Bailey : 12/14/2005 1:03:36 PM

01:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 12/14/2005 12:58:56 PM

OEX breaking higher again, testing 10-minute Keltner resistance. On the five-minute chart, resistance is at 580.25-580.64 on five-minute closes. OEX at 580.35 as I type.

Jane Fox : 12/14/2005 12:58:50 PM

AD volume is starting to get stronger also.

Jonathan Levinson : 12/14/2005 12:58:13 PM

QQQQ tests descending 72 SMA resistance here at 41.88, above which the 30 min channel will begin to uptick, the downphase currently stalled: Link

Jeff Bailey : 12/14/2005 12:57:58 PM

SPX 1,270.75 +0.26%

QQQQ $41.86

Jane Fox : 12/14/2005 12:57:44 PM

Watch the TICKs they are getting stronger.

Linda Piazza : 12/14/2005 12:57:22 PM

GE still sits right on top of its converging 10 and 21-sma's on the daily chart, with those at 35.59 and 35.58, respectively, and with GE alternating between 35.55-35.64 or so, and mostly in an even tighter range.

Jeff Bailey : 12/14/2005 12:57:22 PM

Swing trade put exit alert ... Close out the SPX Dec. 1,255 Puts (SZP-XK) at the bid of $1.00.

Jane Fox : 12/14/2005 12:56:14 PM

AD volume was giving you a heads up that the bulls were gaining momo. Link

Jane Fox : 12/14/2005 12:54:48 PM

TICKS +800 and the buyers are back. This is a dangerous day to trade.

Linda Piazza : 12/14/2005 12:53:14 PM

After the minimal TRAN violation of the descending trendline for the H&S-morphed-into-falling-wedge formation on the TRAN's five-minure chart, the TRAN rises again to retest 4100.

Linda Piazza : 12/14/2005 12:51:32 PM

All day long, the OEX has held to support currently at 579.40 on five-minute closes. OEX at 579.80 as I type.

Linda Piazza : 12/14/2005 12:50:30 PM

Remember when it used to be fun to trade opex weeks?

Jonathan Levinson : 12/14/2005 12:53:41 PM

Session low for Feb. gold just now at 510.60, down 13.70 for the day. First support looks like 505, at the 22 day EMA and rising linear channel support. A new daily cycle downphase has kicked off on the doji reversal off the 24 year high at 544. Link 15 min chart at this Link , 25 year chart of gold at this Link

Linda Piazza : 12/14/2005 12:45:02 PM

Mark, that was the same formation that I was seeing on the TRAN, starting out as a potential H&S, but then morphing into a potential bullish wedge. (See Mark's 12:37:25 and my 12:29:32 posts.)

Linda Piazza : 12/14/2005 12:42:47 PM

The SOX is again at 15-minute Keltner support from 498.55-498.80. I mentioned this support earlier today when the SOX first approached it (slightly different numbers then), saying that the SOX had bounced from that support two time this week and that some sort of bounce should probably be anticipated. Today's bounce wasn't much of a bounce, but bounce potential remains as this is tested. Bears want a strong 15-minute close beneath that support.

Jonathan Levinson : 12/14/2005 12:41:17 PM

Volume breadth holds at +1.4:1 on the NYSE, -2.4:1 on the Nasdaq.

Linda Piazza : 12/14/2005 12:40:29 PM

SOX dropping back below his 10-sma.

Jonathan Levinson : 12/14/2005 12:36:44 PM

QQQQ is tracing a flat sideways range, which bodes ill for the short cycle upphase, so far getting very poor price traction and looking increasingly corrective: Link

Jeff Bailey : 12/14/2005 12:34:08 PM

SPY / SPX Options Montage found at this Link ... Not looking all that promising for my SPX 1,255 Put (SZP-XK) play at this point, where both SPY/SPX underlying never really challenge their daily pivots.

Further ... see the Dec 1,275 Put (SZP-XO) most active, with 3:1 down/up. If I take that 1,275 strike, and for a bearish target subtract the $8.12 AvgOHLC, I come up with 1,275 - 8.12 = 1,266.88. The dn tick volume would suggest to me a determined buyer will exist at 1,267, which would put the 1,255 Puts out the money at expire.

More in a minute, but will adjust bullish target.

Linda Piazza : 12/14/2005 12:31:14 PM

VIX just closed another 60-miute period at the Keltner resistance rather than cleanly above it. The VIX continues to look as if support is strengthening on the short-term charts, but it can't surmount that 60-minute resistance and stay above it, at least not yet.

Linda Piazza : 12/14/2005 12:29:31 PM

TRAN pointing down toward that neckline again, only that formation has morphed, I think, into a possible falling wedge, a potentially bullish formation. TRAN at 4098.44 as I type, with it needing a five-minute close beneath 4098.32 to confirm the move beneath the neckline.

Linda Piazza : 12/14/2005 12:28:05 PM

Once again, I have trendlines drawn everywhere, my charts looking like Pick-Up Sticks were scattered across them. Earlier today, I noted that the OEX was mostly climbing the underside of a 10-minute rising Keltner resistance level. I commented then that it wasn't a particularly strong thing to do, since candle bodies were forming mostly under the line and under any other circumstances, I would think it needed to drop back to next support, but that this was opex week and that chart evidence just hadn't been working. The OEX did drop back, though, and has since been climbing another rising Keltner resistance zone, this one at the middle-channel level and not the outer one, so that, despite the climb, the OEX looks weaker than it did earlier. So, it again looks as if it needs to drop to plumb for support again, even if it's going to climb again. I don't know if that will happen or not because prices are just not obeying typical technical analysis signs lately, but that's how it looks.

Jeff Bailey : 12/14/2005 12:17:56 PM

12:00 Internals found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 12/14/2005 12:14:21 PM

Stepping away for a few minutes.

Linda Piazza : 12/14/2005 12:13:48 PM

TRAN coming down toward the necline of its potential H&S again, with that neckline now at about 4098.60 and with the TRAN currently at 4099.76, with Keltner support there, too. The TRAN needs to go ahead and break through that neckline or else that formation is going to begin to look more like a descending wedge or triangle.

Linda Piazza : 12/14/2005 12:08:24 PM

The VIX closed the last 60-minute period at 10.65, just below the 10.67 close it needed to clear the first important 60-minute resistance. it's at 10.64 as I type, with that resistance now at 10.66 on 60-minute closes. Shorter-term charts show the VIX perhaps building support, but it just hasn't been able to climb convincingly yet.

Jonathan Levinson : 12/14/2005 12:07:48 PM

The wavelet downphase has kicked off, but it's fighting the new short cycle upphase here. Unless it breaks the previous QQQQ low at 41.708, chances are that this is a "Keene's Wave" pullback to confirm the short cycle upphase. Link

Linda Piazza : 12/14/2005 12:06:27 PM

I consider that potential H&S on the OEX's five-minute chart invalidated, although technically, the OEX may not have risen too high. It's just not rounding down toward the neckline soon enough, and that's always a sign that bears don't quite have their act together. Sometimes the neckline is eventually pierced, of course. Looking at the 15-minute chart, I see that OEX has been again testing 15-minute resistance at 579.93 on 15-minute closes, but that it's clinging to first support at 579.62 on 15-minute closes, with the OEX at 579.69 as I type. The formation does not look particularly strong, Keltner-wise, and it does look as if the OEX needs to retreat further, but this was how it was looking late yesterday afternoon, too, and then we saw this morning's drive higher.

Jeff Bailey : 12/14/2005 12:05:21 PM

12:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 12/14/2005 11:50:50 AM

Advdec line rising to retest former support and we'll see if it now holds as resistance. That's up to about 225 on 15-minute closes, with the advdec line now at 47, QCharts value.

Jeff Bailey : 12/14/2005 11:50:43 AM

EIA Weekly Diesel and Jet Fuel Inventory Table found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 12/14/2005 11:49:21 AM

Volume breadth is +1.5:1 on the NYSE, -2.4:1 on the Nasdaq here.

Linda Piazza : 12/14/2005 11:49:11 AM

GE just dipped beneath the 10-sma again, and it springing up to it again, a couple of cents aboe it as I type, at 35.61.

Linda Piazza : 12/14/2005 11:48:20 AM

The OEX punch higher was almost, but maybe not quite, high enough to invalidate its potential H&S on its five-minute chart. The OEX will have to drop quickly now, though, or I would consider the formation invalidated. OEX at 579.94 as I type.

Jonathan Levinson : 12/14/2005 11:43:23 AM

QQQQ's bounce is so far just a wavelet upphase nearing overbought, and the short cycle indicators remain buried in oversold, not yet on buy signals. First sign of trouble for bears will be a break above 41.90, with 72 SMA resistance down to 41.97 within the ongoing 30 min channel downphase. Link

Linda Piazza : 12/14/2005 11:41:08 AM

TRAN bouncing from its neckline test. Not far, so far.

Linda Piazza : 12/14/2005 11:40:48 AM

The OEX now also has a potential H&S on its five-minute chart, neckline at about 578.78 currently. If the OEX should violate that neckline and not quickly reverse, then the OEX looks vulnerable on that chart down to 577.50-577.76. It might be likely to expect some kind of bounce attempt from that level if the OEX should drop that far. OEX at 579.33 as I type, and the discussion is premature as yet because it hasn't confirmed that H&S.

Linda Piazza : 12/14/2005 11:37:57 AM

The TRAN moves closer to the neckline for its potential H&S on the five-minute chart, with that neckline at about 4099.00 currently. I'd wait for a five-minute close beneath a line currently at 4098.14 before I assumed that it had been confirmed, however, and even then would be careful to watch for a quick reversal. TRAN at 4099.76 as I type.

Jeff Bailey : 12/14/2005 11:28:04 AM

EIA Weekly Crude Oil, Gasoline and Distillate Inventory Table found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 12/14/2005 11:25:35 AM

SOX's 10-sma is at 499.40, helping to provide support today. SOX at 500.45, off a low of 498.13.

Jeff Bailey : 12/14/2005 11:25:08 AM

11:00 Internals found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 12/14/2005 11:23:50 AM

GE is dropping down to retest its 10-sma again, with that at 35.59 and with GE currently at 35.60. The 21-sma is just below that, at 35.58.

Jeff Bailey : 12/14/2005 11:22:25 AM

Sell Program Premiums ... on 2-minute intervals, would see 6 sell program premiums generated so far this morning. Last one coming at 11:14-11:16 AM EST. They have been rather "shallow" with deepest at 10:58-11:00 of 7.46.

No buy program premiums to this point.

Linda Piazza : 12/14/2005 11:21:10 AM

Watching the TRAN, with a well-formed potential H&S on top of its climb, visible on the five-minute chart. The head is at today's high, the neckline at about 4099.38 currently, but descending, the right-shoulder level at about 4112 or below. The TRAN is currently at 4107.15, just rising into the right shoulder over the last 30 minutes. Remember not to assume that this will be confirmed, but it should probably be watched.

Jonathan Levinson : 12/14/2005 11:21:04 AM

Big jump in treasury bonds, with TNX now down 9.6 bps at 4.439% and IRX down 3.5 bps at 3.792%.

Linda Piazza : 12/14/2005 11:16:09 AM

VIX at a high of the day. Still hasn't closed a 60-minute period above the Keltner line at 10.67 currently, but it looks possible that it could do so. That's just the first step in the VIX's recovery, however, as it needs a 60-minute close above 11.03 to change the downward trend this week. VIX at 11.74 as I type.

Linda Piazza : 12/14/2005 11:12:49 AM

The SOX pierced the Keltner support I've been mentioning, now at 498.70-498.85, but it bounced back to test it. I wouldn't be surprised to see a SOX bounce, although bears would like to see it keep declining. Next resistance now at 500.61 and then at 501.92. SOX at 499.17 as I type.

Jonathan Levinson : 12/14/2005 11:12:05 AM

QQQQ tests Monday's lows now after burying yesterday's and this morning's range. The longer that price holds below 41.90, the deeper the potential pullback as the 30 and 60 min channels drop to catch up to the move in price. Nasdaq volume breadth is down to -2.6:1, and QQQQ 41.80 should now act as resistance on a bounce. Link

Linda Piazza : 12/14/2005 11:10:50 AM

I've been saying all day that the advdec line was roughly following Monday's pattern, and it continues to do so, except that now, the drop has been even steeper and more sudden than Monday's. We can't count on the OEX to also follow Monday's pattern as the advdec line may diverge at some point, but at least an examination of the advdec line with respect to Keltner channels showed us that although the advdec line had climbed, it was hitting resistance and reacting to that resistance in a manner that suggested that the morning high, at least, was being hit.

Linda Piazza : 12/14/2005 11:05:24 AM

SOX not far above 498.71-499.59 next Keltner support on 15-minute closes. This support has held on two tests this week. SOX low has been 499.98 so far. It's currently testing and try to cling to support at 500.65 on 15-minute closes, with the SOX at 500.36 as I type. Bears want it to violate that Keltner support that's held all week, with next support then near 496.

Jeff Bailey : 12/14/2005 11:04:21 AM

11:00 Market Watch found at this Link ... Equities may have gotten wind of that 1% decline in operable capacity.

Linda Piazza : 12/14/2005 11:02:55 AM

VIX at 10.70, testing 60-minute Keltner resistance. A 60-minute close at this level or above would have the VIX clearing the first hurdle in its way, with a 60-minute close above a line currently at 11.03 to really change its downward trend this week.

Jonathan Levinson : 12/14/2005 11:02:36 AM

30/60 min channel support and S1 for QQQQ line up at 41.76: Link . The 30 and 60 min channels are due for more downside than that, but op-ex distortions could muddy the waters even further than usual.

Linda Piazza : 12/14/2005 11:01:52 AM

The OEX's 10-minute Keltner resistance continues to roughly hold, with that at 580.51-580.68, with the OEX climbing that rising resistance from the underside. Until there are 15-minute closes beneath Keltner support at 579.51-579.56, this is just a retreat to plumb for next support, though. Longs, keep an eye on the VIX, although I do not believe it to be a great market-timing tool, especially for short-term trades, but it's at levels that should have bulls protecting their profits and on the lookout for signs of a reversal.

Jonathan Levinson : 12/14/2005 11:00:31 AM

Volume breadth drops to +1.4:1 on the NYSE, -2.05:1 on the Nasdaq.

Jonathan Levinson : 12/14/2005 10:57:41 AM




Jonathan Levinson : 12/14/2005 10:53:15 AM

Here's the support break and retest, except that the short cycle is oversold and in bottom territory above yesterday's pre-FOMC range. If it's going to bounce, this would be the time: Link

Linda Piazza : 12/14/2005 10:49:27 AM

The advdec line was quickly knocked back since my last post, and it never did touch that upper Keltner boundary again, so, with the exception of a candle shadow spiking upward during the previous 15-minute period, it still does follow Monday's pattern. We need to see a deep drop beneath 600 to get things started to the downside, but if that occurs, we should at some point expect a bounce to retest that line to see if it holds as resistance on the retest. Advdec line at 681 as I type.

Jonathan Levinson : 12/14/2005 10:46:37 AM

QQQQ back to the lows, testing possible descending triangle support now: Link

Linda Piazza : 12/14/2005 10:46:30 AM

While the OEX shows bearish divergence on the 10-minute chart, the VIX shows bullish divergence and a hint, just the slightest hint, of strengthening support on that chart. It looks, from a Keltner viewpoint, as if it has a major hurdle at 10.69, however, with the VIX currently at 10.59. It needs a 60-minute close above 10.69 and then one above 11.01 to have changed its downtrend this week.

Jeff Bailey : 12/14/2005 10:44:31 AM

Valero (VLO) $108.50 -0.45% ...

Linda Piazza : 12/14/2005 10:44:26 AM

The OEX climbs the underside rising 10-minute Keltner resistance, at 580.46-580.70 on 10-minute closes. It's closing a few periods right above that rising resistance, but most candle bodies are below it. It's forming a potential rising wedge complete with major price/RSI bearish divergence on the 10-minute chart, but we know how reliable those are, don't we? If this weren't opex week and if markets weren't so strange lately, I'd say that predicted that the OEX wa going to drop back to plumb for strongest support. But it is opex week and markets have been strange.

Jeff Bailey : 12/14/2005 10:44:05 AM

EIA Weekly Gross Inputs, Operable Capacity, Percent Utilization Table found at this Link

Note: Weekly Percent Utilization slipped to 89.61% from 90.61%.

Jonathan Levinson : 12/14/2005 10:41:57 AM



Linda Piazza : 12/14/2005 10:41:30 AM

Still such a mixture of possible outcomes. I look at INTC's chart and now that it did not reach a new high so that the potential for a double-top formation this week still exists. Yet if you look at the spiky formation on the 15-minute chart, it could be seen as a continuation-form inverse H&S with a neckline at about 26.87 or so, but climbing slightly. INTC at 26.67.

Jonathan Levinson : 12/14/2005 10:39:52 AM




Jonathan Levinson : 12/14/2005 10:38:31 AM

Crude oil -.30 at 61.075 here. Link

Linda Piazza : 12/14/2005 10:37:02 AM

Advdec line climbing now more strongly than it did on Monday, diverging some from Monday's pattern now. It hasn't yet topped the 1300-ish next resistance, so that hasn't changed, but it's risen closer to it than it did on Monday after falling away. Advdec line now at 1123, QCharts figure.

Jonathan Levinson : 12/14/2005 10:35:59 AM

Volume breadth +2:1 on the NYSE, -1.5:1 on the Nasdaq.

Linda Piazza : 12/14/2005 10:35:40 AM

OEX climbing again to retest that former double-top area . . . at it as I type. It's bouncing this morning off five-minute Kelner support at 579.84 . . . just reached a new high for the day. Bulls, you don't want to see a quick reversal here, or it will look like a stop-running move.

Jonathan Levinson : 12/14/2005 10:34:48 AM

QQQQ holds below 72 SMA resistance despite the crude oil report and an ongoing wavelet cycle upphase: Link

Linda Piazza : 12/14/2005 10:34:11 AM

Next SOX Keltner resistance at 505.18 if it should get past 502.78 on a 15-minute close. Still a lot of time left in this current 15-minute period. SOX at 503.37 as I type.

Linda Piazza : 12/14/2005 10:32:42 AM

SOX back near yesterday's 502.84 close, with the SOX moving just above that now as I type, at 503.04.

Jonathan Levinson : 12/14/2005 10:33:33 AM





Jonathan Levinson : 12/14/2005 10:30:26 AM

Crude oil -.25 to 61.125 here.

Jonathan Levinson : 12/14/2005 10:30:14 AM

From the EIA website:

U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) rose by 0.9 million barrels from the previous week. At 321.2 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are well above the upper end of the average range for this time of year. Total motor gasoline inventories increased by 1.8 million barrels last week, putting them in the lower half of the average range. Distillate fuel inventories, remained relatively flat, inching down by just 0.1 million barrels last week, and are in the middle of the average range for this time of year. A slight decrease in high-sulfur (heating oil) distillate fuel more than compensated for a slight increase in low-sulfur (diesel fuel) distillate fuel inventories. Total commercial petroleum inventories increased by 1.2 million barrels last week, and are above the upper end of the average range for this time of year.

Jonathan Levinson : 12/14/2005 10:27:48 AM

Crude oil -.05 to 61.375, natgas -.58 at 14.80 with 3 minutes to go until the Crude inventory report.

Linda Piazza : 12/14/2005 10:25:54 AM

VIX tests the 11/22 low of 10.50, with the VIX currently at 10.65, up from the 10.48 low. The 60-minute Keltner chart suggests that unless the VIX can climb above 10.69 on a 60-minute close, it may remain vulnerable to deeper declines, but does anyone remember how often we've typed "high of 11/23" around here? The VIX is not a good market-timing tool, particularly during opex week, but this is a time to perhaps maintain protective measures on your long positions, for certain.

Jonathan Levinson : 12/14/2005 10:22:45 AM

41.90 was tested several times just now and didn't fail . Price holds below the 72 SMA at 42.00 QQQQ, and with 8 minutes to go, it could be the EIA Crude oil report that breaks the deadlock.

Jeff Bailey : 12/14/2005 10:20:00 AM

10:00 Internals found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 12/14/2005 10:20:00 AM

Session high for ten year notes, with TNX now down 6.5 bps to 4.47%. 13-week bill rates (IRX) are up to a 1.7 bp loss at 3.81%.

Linda Piazza : 12/14/2005 10:19:03 AM

Crude inventories are coming up soon. The price of crude played a big part in October's record trade deficit, released today, and also in November's drop in import prices, with one figure scary and the other perhaps somewhat reassuring. Market may be on hold here, waiting to see what the inventories numbers show. Decide soon if you want to hold over that number and exit, if you don't.

Jonathan Levinson : 12/14/2005 10:17:23 AM

Volume breadth remains evenly divided, +1.65:1 on the NYSE, -1.65:1 on the Nasdaq.

Linda Piazza : 12/14/2005 10:16:43 AM

Advdec line dropped again after my last post, but only to that support again, with the support now near 510 and the advdec line at 533. If markets continue to follow Monday's pattern, the advdec line could spend two or three 15-minute periods testing this support, forming small-bodied candles along it, bouncing at times, but not moving again above the resistance now near 1100.

Linda Piazza : 12/14/2005 10:14:30 AM

I'm having difficulty with my email this morning. If you've written and I haven't replied, that's why.

Linda Piazza : 12/14/2005 10:13:44 AM

Advdec line hitting potential support again and bouncing as I type. Now at 650.

Jeff Bailey : 12/14/2005 10:12:01 AM

10:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 12/14/2005 10:10:51 AM

The RUT also retested yesterday's post-FOMC high of 692.23, with the RUT high today a little below that, at 692.05, but still within testing territory. The RUT drops sharply as I type, now at 690.02.

Jonathan Levinson : 12/14/2005 10:10:15 AM

Stepping away for 5 minutes.

Linda Piazza : 12/14/2005 10:09:37 AM

The OEX heads down toward 578.88-579.07 next Keltner support on 15-minute closes, but it's even doing that somewhat slowly, with investors appearing reluctant to send the big caps lower. OEX at 579.57 as I type.

Jonathan Levinson : 12/14/2005 10:09:23 AM

QQQQ tested the top of yesterday's pre-FOMC range at 41.90, bounced weakly and is testing it again. It's still been a sideways, gradual short cycle downphase, and bears need to see 41.90 support fail: Link

Linda Piazza : 12/14/2005 10:05:23 AM

The OEX isn't dropping much off that test of yesterday's high. INTC dropped to a new low for the day, but quickly bounced, and hasn't dropped low enough to confirm its double-top formation when compared to Monday's high. GE is slipping into this morning's gap higher, but it hasn't closed it yet. The 15-minute Keltner resistance on the TRAN's chart held, roughly, but so is the 4100 round-number support. Nothing conclusive yet.

Linda Piazza : 12/14/2005 10:02:14 AM

Like some other indices, namely the OEX, the SOX had an inverse H&S on its 15-minute chart, but one that was forming within a possible broadening formation that began forming about December 1. It's not particularly trustworthy because of its situation, but it was confirmed in the post-FOMC push yesterday. During the just completed 15-minute period, the SOX pierced that neckline again, but closed the period right on it, at about 502.40. The SOX is drifting below it as I type, but not too much yet, and we could so far consider this still just a test. Bers need to see the SOX below a Keltner line currently at 498.51 to even begin to feel comfortable, and even that is a possible bounce level, followed by another at 496. SOX dropping further as I typed, now at 501.71.

Jonathan Levinson : 12/14/2005 10:02:09 AM



10:00am NATURAL GAS OPENS 3% LOWER AT $14.90

Jonathan Levinson : 12/14/2005 10:01:01 AM

Awaiting the EIA Crude inventory report in 30 minutes.

Linda Piazza : 12/14/2005 9:57:04 AM

So far, today's advdec line moves are setting up a lot like they did Monday morning. Doesn't mean that today's trading will follow Monday's pattern, but it remains a possibility. Bulls, be forewarned and decide how you'll protect your positions, if that protection should turn out to be needed.

Jonathan Levinson : 12/14/2005 9:56:08 AM

QQQQ whipsaws and breaks the overnight low, testing short cycle channel support at 41.92. The break below the 72 SMA has the 30 min channel stalling and ticking lower. Next support would be at yesterday's range, 41.80-.90, below which the 41.18-.25 level comes into view. Link

Linda Piazza : 12/14/2005 9:55:20 AM

SOX has gone negative.

Linda Piazza : 12/14/2005 9:54:28 AM

Potential double tops seem to be the formations of the day on many indices. The OEX tested yesterday's post-FOMC high and has now pulled back slightly from that. As long as it maintains 15-minute closes above 578.70-578.93, it's maintaining its post-FOMC trend, but there certainly are a lot of warning signs in the form of bearish divergences up through the 15-minute charts on the OEX and other indices.

Jonathan Levinson : 12/14/2005 9:53:31 AM

A 5.25B overnight repo results in a net add in that amount, driving the stop out rate down to 4.24%, 1 bp below the new 4.25% overnight target rate.

Linda Piazza : 12/14/2005 9:52:42 AM

The TRAN didn't quite make it up to Monday's early morning high of 4117.21. It's pulling back slightly now to next support at 4106.83 on 15-minute closes. TRAN at 4107.98 as I type.

Linda Piazza : 12/14/2005 9:51:32 AM

Advdec line pulling back from 1485-ish resistance on the 7-minute chart. It's at 1151.

Linda Piazza : 12/14/2005 9:50:02 AM

If INTC should fall beneath 26.31, it will have confirmed a double-top formation after its rise off Friday's early morning low. INTC at 26.61 as I type.

Jonathan Levinson : 12/14/2005 9:46:44 AM

QQQQ retests 42.10 resistance from yesterday after a shallow, sideways pullback. If the price can vault back above it, yesterday's highs should come quickly back into view. Link

Linda Piazza : 12/14/2005 9:46:13 AM

OEX testing yesterday's post-FOMC high. Bearish divergence--of course--on the five-minute chart.

Linda Piazza : 12/14/2005 9:45:38 AM

Advdec line still climbing, showing bearish divergence on the five-minute chart, as it has been since the post-FOMC zoom yesterday, but still climbing.

Jonathan Levinson : 12/14/2005 9:44:45 AM

Because the Fed used a 3-day repo yesterday, there are no open market operations expiring today. Any amounts added in the 10AM announcement will be net adds.

Jonathan Levinson : 12/14/2005 9:43:33 AM

Volume breadth is +1.8:1 on the NYSE, +1.2:1 on the Nasdaq.

Linda Piazza : 12/14/2005 9:42:27 AM

Yesterday's post-FOMC high for the OEX was 580.48. The OEX is currently at 579.98, just off a 580.15 high, testing 580.17 resistance on 15-minute closes. Next resistance at 581.39.

Linda Piazza : 12/14/2005 9:41:19 AM

TRAN at a new high of the day, above Keltner resistance near 4100, on 15-minute closes, with several minutes to go in this period but with no sign of slowing down yet. At 4117.21, it will retest the week's high, with the TRAN currently at 4113.31.

Jonathan Levinson : 12/14/2005 9:40:37 AM

Treasuries remain very strong, TNX -5.5 bps at 4.48% and IRX -2 bps at 3.807%.

Linda Piazza : 12/14/2005 9:39:48 AM

Advdec line climbing again, now at a new high, moving into potential resistance near 1000 on 15-minute closes, with the advdec line at 931 as I type.

Linda Piazza : 12/14/2005 9:38:35 AM

OEX still moving up from 578.24-578.65 support on the 15-minute chart. Next resistance 579.89 and then 581.30 on 15-minute closes.

Jonathan Levinson : 12/14/2005 9:38:34 AM

QQQQ is holding above 72 SMA support and the wavelet cycle is trying to turn up from a higher low, a bullish divergence against the price. The short cycle indicators still point lower, but with poor traction. Link

Linda Piazza : 12/14/2005 9:36:56 AM

SOX near yesterday's close, perched just above 502.60-ish support . . . moving up as I type to 503.41.

Linda Piazza : 12/14/2005 9:36:00 AM

Advdec line pulling back already, still near the mid-line level, not giving a strong signal any direction yet, but certainly not giving a signal for strength.

Jonathan Levinson : 12/14/2005 9:34:53 AM

OTTAWA, Dec 14 (Reuters) - Canada's trade surplus rose to C$7.17 billion ($6.23 billion) in October from September's upwardly revised level on greater natural gas exports to the United States, Statistics Canada said on Wednesday.

Analysts had on average forecast that October's surplus would be C$6.8 billion. Statscan hiked September's surplus to C$7.17 billion from the preliminary C$7.02 billion level.

The Canadian dollar extended its overnight gains to C$1.1430 against the U.S. dollar, or 87.49 U.S. cents, from around C$1.1450, or 87.34 U.S. cents.

Exports rose to a record C$40.2 billion, analysts had predicted it would be C$40 billion, marking the eighth consecutive rise in shipments abroad, Statscan said.


Linda Piazza : 12/14/2005 9:34:41 AM

The TRAN often zooms around pre-inventories number. So far, it's retesting yesterday's last 15-minute high at 4098.79, with the TRAN now at 4095.60. Keltner resistance at 4100.68 on 15-minute closes.

Linda Piazza : 12/14/2005 9:33:32 AM

GE gaps higher this morning, but remains within its potential bearish right triangle on the daily chart.

Linda Piazza : 12/14/2005 9:33:03 AM

No numbers on the SOX yet, but the SMH opened below yesterday's close and now climbs up to test that closing level, having bounced at least temporarily from the 10-sma at 38.35.

Jonathan Levinson : 12/14/2005 9:32:05 AM

Volume breadth is +1.2:1 on the NYSE, -1.15:1 on the Nasdaq at the open.

Linda Piazza : 12/14/2005 9:31:53 AM

The advdec line starts out below the mid-channel level but climbs as I type, testing it. The OEX does bounce from the 15-minute Keltner supprt, toward next resistance at 578.51 on 15-minute closes, with the OEX pushing above that currently.

Jonathan Levinson : 12/14/2005 9:31:42 AM

QQQQ has 72 SMA support at 41.97, 30 min channel support at 41.77 and resistance at 42.37. The 60 min channel bottom is at 41.75, resistance 42.14. Link

Jonathan Levinson : 12/14/2005 9:30:07 AM

Crude oil is down .20 to 61.175, natgas -.62 to 14.76.

Jeff Bailey : 12/14/2005 9:28:32 AM

Program Trading Levels ... HL Camp & Company has their computers set for program buying at $+9.62 and set for program selling at $+7.84.

Jane Fox : 12/14/2005 9:25:16 AM

These two were certainly not bullish yesterday and I expect both to open below 0 this morning. Link

Linda Piazza : 12/14/2005 9:08:46 AM

On the OEX's daily chart, the pullback from the 11/23 high looks like a possible bull flag. On intraday charts, it looks like a possible broadening formation, and those two obviously have very different connotations, one bullish and one bearish. However, yesterday's action, despite the higher close, was not bullish. The OEX pierced the top resistance of that possible flag and then fell below it, dropping right back into that 577-578.40-ish S/R zone long marked on my daily charts. If those two doji in a row predicted a possible rise up through the channel again, yesterday's action suggested a fall through it again to test for support again. "Suggests" and "will" are not analogous, of course, so I'm going to play devil's advocate in the next paragraph.

The OEX did not decline below 50% of the day's range or even of the post-FOMC bounce. Depending on how you draw that possible flag, prices may have ended up at the top of the flag, still testing resistance, or perhaps deeper inside it. The OEX ended the day at 15-minute Keltner support at 578.08-578.48 on 15-minute closes, the candle spanning those line, rather than significantly dropping below them, so it's possible that it could still spring from that support today.

If the OEX drops below them this morning, however, a drop toward 577 looks possible, if not a drop to retest the 576.04-576.49 support, the lines being tested just prior to the FOMC announcement, to see if they hold as support now. If that support doesn't hold, a decline to 574 looks possible.

The most probable outcome to me seems to be either sideways choppy trade until supporting Keltner lines catch up or else a decline to test them, but I'm worried about the close at Keltner support. Watch the SOX, with the SOX erasing most of its post-FOMC gain, but trying to steady near the close above Monday's 501.79 high. Watch GE, in a possible bearish right triangle on the daily chart, with the flat support at 35.25 and with the top, descending trendline at 36.00.

Jonathan Levinson : 12/14/2005 9:07:38 AM

LUXEMBOURG (AP) -- An EU court ruled Wednesday that the European Commission was right to block a proposed merger between General Electric Co. and Honeywell International Inc. in 2001, although it criticized regulators for how they made the decision.

The EU had blocked the all-American, $46 billion merger after it had been cleared by U.S. regulators.


Jonathan Levinson : 12/14/2005 9:01:50 AM

Yesterday's QQQQ gain took place on light volume on an FOMC day during opex week. It also stalled and printed a premature buy signal for the daily cycle, and aborted 30 and 60 min cycle downphases in the early going. Those intraday cycles are turning back down from the overnight weakness, but these remain critical levels due to the new daily cycle ambiguity. Obviously, the daily indicators have been getting very poor traction, and if this is to be a top in the daily (and weekly) timeframes, the price is going to have to start confirming it very soon, as in now. Link I will update the intraday levels when they refresh at the opening bell.

Jane Fox : 12/14/2005 8:54:54 AM

Dateline WSJ The U.S. trade deficit surged to another record in October, growing beyond expectations as rising purchases of foreign oil and natural gas helped offset increased exports.

The Commerce Department reported Wednesday that the U.S. deficit in international trade of goods and services widened 4.4% to $68.89 billion from a slightly revised $66.00 billion in September. Economists had forecast a deficit of $63.00 billion. September's shortfall was previously estimated at $66.11 billion, which had been the record high.

So far this year, the trade deficit is running at an annual rate of $718 billion, far surpassing last year's $617.6 billion imbalance.

Jonathan Levinson : 12/14/2005 8:33:55 AM

Import prices ex-oil -.2% vs. +.8% prior

Export prices ex-ag -.9% vs. +.6% prior

Jonathan Levinson : 12/14/2005 8:32:05 AM

TNX drops to a 4.9 bp loss at 4.486%, IRX -3.2 bps at 3.795%.

Jonathan Levinson : 12/14/2005 8:31:22 AM





Jonathan Levinson : 12/14/2005 8:30:45 AM





Jonathan Levinson : 12/14/2005 8:23:56 AM

Ten year notes hold their gains, TNX -4.5 bps at 4.49%. IRX is down 2.2 bps at 3.805%.

Jonathan Levinson : 12/14/2005 7:45:14 AM

From the Mortgage Bankers Association website:

WASHINGTON, D.C. (December 14, 2005) - The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) today released its Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending December 9. The Market Composite Index - a measure of mortgage loan application volume was 619.3 -- a decrease of 5.7 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from 656.7, one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 8.1 percent compared with the previous week and was down 11.0 percent compared with the same week one year earlier.

The seasonally-adjusted Purchase Index decreased by 3.5 percent to 477.9 from 495.1 the previous week whereas the Refinance Index decreased by 9.7 percent to 1441.8 from 1596.4 one week earlier. Other seasonally adjusted index activity includes the Conventional Index, which decreased 5.5 percent to 927.5 from 981.8 the previous week, and the Government Index, which decreased 7.9 percent to 105.0 from 114.0 the previous week.

The four week moving average for the seasonally-adjusted Market Index is down 1.5 percent to 633.9 from 643.5. The four week moving average is unchanged at 480.4 for the Purchase Index while this average is down 4.1 percent to 1526.7 from 1591.8 for the Refinance Index.

The refinance share of mortgage activity decreased to 40.2 percent of total applications from 41.0 percent the previous week. The adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) share of activity increased to 33.5 percent of total applications from 33.1 percent the previous week.

Jonathan Levinson : 12/14/2005 7:44:17 AM

Equities are lower, ES trading 1274, NQ 1718.5, YM 10864 and QQQQ -.11 to 41.93, back to the breakout point immediately following the FOMC announcement yesterday. Gold is down 9.70 to 514.60, silver -.126 to 8.463, ten year notes +15/64 to 108 5/8, crude oil +.025 to 61.40 and natgas +.12 to 15.50.

We await the 8:30 releases of Export Prices ex-ag and Import Prices ex-oil, est. .6% and .8% respectively, and the Trade Balance, est. -62.8B. At 10:30 AM, it's the EIA Petrol report.

Linda Piazza : 12/14/2005 7:04:22 AM

Good morning. The Nikkei saw even wilder swings than usual last night, closing more than 400 points below its high of day, itself a triple-digit gain from the previous day's close. Other Asian markets were mixed, as are European markets this morning. As of 6:47 EST, gold was lower by $10.40 to $513.70, and crude, by $0.09 to $61.28. Some sources note that one reason for the steep drop in gold relates to new stricter margin requirements in Tokyo, prompting a liquidation of some positions. More details about Asian and European markets follow in succeeding paragraphs.

Once again, within a few minutes of the open, the Nikkei had posted a triple-digit gain, but then it dove an amazing 420 points off that high of the day to close down by 314.28 points or 1.99%, at 15,464.58. This was the Nikkei's biggest lost in two months, Reuter's reported. As deep as that dive was, however, it did not quite close the gap higher from Monday morning, off Friday's close.

The quarterly Tankan survey was released. The large manufacturer's diffusion index (DI) was +21 against a forecast of +23, large non-manufacturer's met expectations at +17, small manufacturers were at +7 against expectations of +5, and small non-manufacturers were at -7 against expectations for -10. For March, large manufacturers and non-manufacturers' forecasts are lower than the previous ones, with small companies' meeting expectations. In general the trend was below forecast for large companies and above forecasts for small ones. The results improved over September's, but was considered a disappointment by some. A government spokesman said that the Tankan results met expectations, however, and indicated that the government saw a moderate recovery that should continue, but that deflation continues. In the Bank of Japan's semiannual report to parliament, the central bank said that the economy had climbed out of its lull. In economic another release, corporate bankruptcies rose. Another release showed Tokyo department store sales rising 4.3% year over year, the first gain in two months.

After the Tankan was released, the yen rose. Banks declined, as did steel-related issues after a Goldman Sachs statement that it was time to take profits in the sector. Many banks that benefited from Mizuho Securities' mistake in selling 610,000 shares of an IPO at one yen rather than one share at 610,000 yen may return the money gained to Mizuho. Shipping firms rose in early trading.

Other Asian markets were mixed. The Taiwan Weighted lost 0.41%, and South Korea's Kospi declined 0.17%. Singapore's Straits Times rose 0.02%, and Hong Kong's Hang Seng gained 0.23%. China's Shanghai Composite climbed 0.67%. Citigroup has produced the highest bid for China's Guandong Development Bank, Reuters reported.

European markets are mixed, too. The oil sector is weak despite crude prices that steady. ACEA, an auto trade industry group, reported that Western European car registrations for November fell 2.8%. In stock-specific news, Dutch bank ABN Amro announced restructuring plans and was climbing in early trading. Dutch media group VNU N.V. may be the object of buying interest, the company reported, and it was gaining in early trading. Bayer also gained in early trading after Deutsche Bank upgraded the company to a buy rating, but it appears to be slipping back into negative territory.

As of 6:45 EST, the FTSE 100 had climbed by 14.00 points or 0.25%, to 5,521.20. The FTSE has been chopping around mostly between 5500 and 5525, but with a few dips and punches just past that, for the last five days. The CAC 40 had slipped 10.31 points or 0.22%, to 4,683.09. The DAX had declined 17.84 points or 0.34%, to 5,292.44.

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