Option Investor
Archive
HAVING TROUBLE PRINTING?
Printer friendly version
Jeff Bailey : 12/21/2005 1:56:56 AM

Quick recap for new subscribers ... Sometimes I make note of something and don't always realize we have new subscribers checking in. My 01:27:22 AM comment "Last year's Nat. Gas inventory data suggests the winter heating season ended in late March" was derived from the EIA Nat. Gas inventory data last year. Here is a more completed time table starting for the EIA data ended Dec. 17, 2004 at this Link .

On 12/19/05 at 02:21:18 (see Market Monitor) Link I just happened to catch the Department of MMS update that continued improvement in U.S. Gulf Oil and Nat. Gas Output was beeing found as platforms and pipelines continue to come back on line after Katrina (week of 09/02) and Rita (week of 09/23).

Now throw in recent temperatures and temperature forecasts and an energy trader has a plate full!

Better get some rest. Busy couple of days ahead.

Jeff Bailey : 12/21/2005 1:27:22 AM

Weekly EIA Crude Oil, Gasoline, Distillate, Nat. Gas Inventory Table with assumption that there are no net changes in inventory at this Link

Note: Last year's Nat. Gas inventory data suggests the winter heating season ended in late March.

Jeff Bailey : 12/21/2005 12:22:40 AM

Program Trading Levels for Wednesday ... HL Camp & Company has their computers set for program buying at $+8.46 and set for program selling at $+6.85.

Jeff Bailey : 12/21/2005 12:14:01 AM

Questions regarding Toll Brothers (TOL) trade profile.

Main question is ... "do you think TOL can still hit your $42-$43 target by expiration?"

Yes I do. Stock did achieve its bearish vertical count of $35 in recent weeks Link showed some bullish life last week. My thought when profiled, having seen TOL achieved it bearish vertical count was... "if I were short, I'd be locking in gains." Again... stocks can sometimes achieve their bullish/bearish vertical count, some times they exceed them and sometimes they are never met.

Key number tomorrow in my opinion will be the Purchases Index, and I think the headline will have to be 500.00 or better. If under 500.00 and DJUSHB and TOL bid, then perhaps I get a little more bullish? Better than 500 and DJUSHB and TOL trade lower, then no, I don't think my January target achievable.

Here's the Weekly MBA table at this Link

Quick rundown ... DJUSHB and TOL prices listed are those at the close of trade on the FRIDAY following the release of MBA weekly data (I do this only because of time limitations on my part). Both DJUSHB and TOL appear to have "topped" after the 07/20/05 report, but more likely, after the 07/06/05 "blow out" numbers.

BIG decline in Purchases Index find TOL exceeding its bearish vertical count of $35.00 after report dates 10/26 and 11/02.

OI Technical Staff : 12/20/2005 9:59:59 PM

The Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

Disclaimer: Stocks discussed in the Market Monitor are for educational purposes only and any analysis is not meant to imply a recommendation for or against that stock. The analysts in this forum as on any other website are prohibited by the SEC from giving any specific advice to ANY individual trader. All information posted is for ALL readers and is not meant to be directed to any individual. Our analysts cannot answer any email questions regarding any specific stock. Please do not ask and please do not take offense if requests are denied.

Results posted in the Market Monitor are hypothetical and OIN does not claim that any reader achieved these exact results. Due to the lag time between research, writing, posting, uploading, reading and execution there will be differences between the actual signal given and the fill achieved by the reader. Fills may be better or worse but in most cases they will be different. The writers will make every effort to give advance notice of intended signals and indicate potential price targets. Your individual results may vary depending on your activity level and aggressiveness. This forum is intended as an education service only. Trading involves risk and should not be attempted by anyone not ready to accept this risk. By acting on any signal in this forum you agree and personally accept this risk.

Jeff Bailey : 12/20/2005 9:26:51 PM

Last Week's Distillate and Nat. Gas Inventory Table Link

Heating oil is a part of distillates, which refiners can crank out like candy when they need/want to.

The distillate figures can be a "heads up" for Thursday's Nat. Gas data. I say heating oil can be a "heads up" only from the perspective, or knowledge that distillates/heating oil can be cranked out in large quantity (see 11/11-12/02). Nat. Gas is more of a "produce it out of the ground and store it if you can" type of commodity.

Jeff Bailey : 12/20/2005 9:26:33 PM

12/12/05 to 12/16/05 Temperature Montage with Nat. Gas and Heating Oil futures benchmarks at this Link ... This should help give us a "what is going into this week's EIA reports." Hope there aren't any overly sensitive Detroit Lions fans out there. I don't think the Phoenix Cardinals are drawing all that well either though.

Here's a link from "infoplease.com" of Top 50 Cities (population) as of 07/01/2004 Link

Makes you wonder doesn't it? Is the change in latitude due to aging baby boomers? Or did somebody see the rise in natural gas and heating oil coming years ago?

Here's a Link from the U.S. Census Bureau ranked by state population.

Jeff Bailey : 12/20/2005 8:04:21 PM

Looks like weather forecasters predicting a "heat wave" next couple of days! National Weather Service map Link

Jeff Bailey : 12/20/2005 8:04:43 PM

03:12 PM EST Temperatures with Tuesday's Jan/Feb Nat. Gas and Heating Oil futures settlement at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 12/20/2005 7:15:42 PM

NASDAQ-100 Bullish % ($BPNDX) Questions Link ... I had a couple of questions regarding StockCharts.com's $BPNDX and Dorsey's (BPNDX) that I want to quickly cover/explain.

OK.... At Friday's close (or Monday's open) the NDX/QQQQ made some quarterly changes when the added 12 new components and removed 12 components. Remember, what this bullish % does is simply measure the number of charts (in one pile) that have a buy signal associated with the PnF chart, and another pile of charts that have a sell signal associated with the PnF chart. Here's today's closing values of stocks that were added, and subtracted. Next to each stock's symbol, I've placed a (B) for buy, and (S) for sell, based on quick glance of the PnF chart Link

OK ... you can quickly see why the $BPNDX jumped from 65% on Friday, to 70% on Monday.

I placed a "BLUE ?" by DISCA Link as it has traded between $14.00 and $16.00 since listing on NASDAQ, so no buy or sell signal that I can see.

I should also note that on Monday, CELG Link generated a reversing lower PnF sell signal when it traded $57.00.

Now, another question I had is why Dorsey's NASDAQ-100 Bullish % (BPNDX) was still at 64% as of Monday's close.

I think it is just because they have not updated their data base for the changes.

Here's Dorsey/Wright & Assoc. BPNDX chart Link

Jeff Bailey : 12/20/2005 5:48:47 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles found at this Link

Today's Activity ... Swing traded long the Pfizer PFE Jan. $25 Call (PFE-AE) at the offer of $0.30.

This trade is based ENTIRELY on Friday afternoon's option chain observations and thought that some sellers (long or short) got caught/surprised by the patent news. Prior to Friday's news, I think this stock was a candidate for a "tax loss sell" with little catalyst in sight. Now there's a near-term catalyst that may have some institutions trying to salvage the position, where some of Friday's quarterly expiration option action looked like covered call, or naked call selling, that may get unwound into the new year.

We shall see, but today's $24.00 close is interesting to me (based on Friday's thoughts at 05:41:08 PM EST). Link

Jeff Bailey : 12/20/2005 5:29:15 PM

Pivot Matrix for tomorrow found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 12/20/2005 5:04:19 PM

Closing U.S. Market Watch found at this Link

Note: I've "rolled" to February contracts for energy-related futures as January Crude Oil reaches final settlement.

Jeff Bailey : 12/20/2005 4:56:45 PM

Closing Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 12/20/2005 4:21:08 PM

Bullish call establish stop alert ... Let's establish a stop on the Apache Corp. APA Feb. $70 Calls (APA-BN) at $2.70.

APA went out at $70.45 +1.85% today.

Jeff Bailey : 12/20/2005 3:59:45 PM

Jan Nat Gas (ng06f) settled up $0.037, or +0.26% at $14.080.

Feb Nat Gas (ng06g) settled up $0.046, or 0.33% at $14.150.

Jonathan Levinson : 12/20/2005 3:52:32 PM

Price holds pennies above yesterday's close, QQQQ marking time today with doji rejections at the high and low- though the range was clearly lower, confirming the daily cycle weakness. Daily chart at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 12/20/2005 3:33:57 PM

QUALCOMM (QCOM) $44.13 +1.0% ...

Jeff Bailey : 12/20/2005 3:33:31 PM

Dell (DELL) $31.23 -2.10% ....

Jeff Bailey : 12/20/2005 3:33:09 PM

Amgen (AMGN) $78.29 +0.85% ...

Jeff Bailey : 12/20/2005 3:32:15 PM

Cisco (CSCO) $17.30 -0.97% ... session lows.

Jeff Bailey : 12/20/2005 3:31:49 PM

Intel (INTC) $25.82 +0.15% ...

Jeff Bailey : 12/20/2005 3:31:22 PM

Microsoft (MSFT) $26.84 +0.03% ... session high has been $26.86.

Jeff Bailey : 12/20/2005 3:30:43 PM

Google (GOOG) 427.61 +0.73% .... just so QQQQ traders can get a feel.

Jeff Bailey : 12/20/2005 3:30:03 PM

Sell Program Premium ... DIA $107.75, SPX 1,258.06, QQQQ $40.86

Jonathan Levinson : 12/20/2005 3:21:46 PM

QQQQ's 30/60 min channel bottoms now line up at 40.81, the 30 min steepening its decline. The failure at 41.15 was a much lower high, and came very early in the 30 min cycle's upphase- both confirm renewed bearishness in the daily cycle, and suggest trouble for bulls if the 40.81 low breaks. On the upside, bulls need to regain 41.01 to stall the 30 min cycle decline. Link

Jeff Bailey : 12/20/2005 3:13:47 PM

03:00 Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 12/20/2005 3:02:43 PM

03:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 12/20/2005 2:57:55 PM

QQQQ's much firmer than YM today- so far, this latest dip has turned the 30 min channel (orange keltner35) tentatively lower, but the 60 min channel still points north (grey Keltner 90 channel). Should result in chop unless 40.90 fails. Link

Jonathan Levinson : 12/20/2005 2:42:37 PM

QQQQ's corrective short cycle upphase has reversed into what so far has been an even more corrective downphase, trading sideways 12.5 cents off the 41.15 high. Volume is light at 54.7M QQQQ shares, and volume breadth remains negative 1.2:1 on the Nasdaq. Price is stuck to the 72 SMA, providing no clues as to intraday bias: Link

Jonathan Levinson : 12/20/2005 2:40:44 PM

Crude oil closed up .025 at 58.075, 17.5 cents off the low. Link

Jeff Bailey : 12/20/2005 2:38:57 PM

Apache Corp. (APA) $70.68 +2.18% ... trader's say "volume proceeds price action"... intra-day 5-minute chart at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 12/20/2005 2:33:58 PM

Matrix Service (MTRX) $9.10 +2.24% ... just under its WEEKLY Pivot ($9.16). Now see the Feb. $10 Calls (QXW-AB) get some action (10 contracts) as the bid comes up to $0.45. Offer has been $0.50. This pretty narrow for bid/ask for this stock's options.

Jeff Bailey : 12/20/2005 2:25:02 PM

Apache Corp. (APA) $70.70 +2.21% ... gets the trade at $70.68.

Jeff Bailey : 12/20/2005 2:11:49 PM

02:00 Internals found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 12/20/2005 2:05:57 PM

Stepping away for 15 minutes.

Jeff Bailey : 12/20/2005 2:04:05 PM

02:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 12/20/2005 2:01:01 PM

Volume breadth +1.1:1 on the NYSE, -1.05:1 on the Nasdaq.

Jonathan Levinson : 12/20/2005 1:48:45 PM

QQQQ finding support at the 72 SMA at 40.99. A solid break below it would stall the 30 min cycle upphase early. Link

Jeff Bailey : 12/20/2005 1:41:34 PM

Matrix Service (MTRX) $8.96 +0.67% ... Options montage at this Link ... Also some action in the May06 $10.00 Calls that looks evenly matched with the noted action in the Feb $7.50 Calls.

Tough to analyze here. Mid-point of $7.50-$10.00 is simply $1.25. $7.50 + 1.25 = $8.75.

Today's low was $8.73, so looks like squaring up.

Jeff Bailey : 12/20/2005 1:24:52 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 12/20/2005 1:18:14 PM

01:00 Internals found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 12/20/2005 1:17:40 PM

Headlines:

U.S. REGULATORS URGE CAUTION ABOUT NONTRADITIONAL MORTGAGES

FED, OTHERS SAY INTEREST-ONLY, OTHER LOANS PRESENT RISKS

FED, OTHERS URGE BANKS TO INFORM ABOUT NONTRADITIONAL LOANS

Jonathan Levinson : 12/20/2005 1:17:03 PM

QQQQ's 30 min cycle has turned up and is roughly 1/3 of the way through its upphase, the 60 min still trending in oversold. If price holds above the 72 SMA for another 30 minutes or so, we should see buy signals in that timeframe as well. A synchronous 30/60 min upphase from here could be quite powerful, but the overhang at 41.20 QQQQ/1690-95 NQ will be a key level for bulls. The daily cycle downphase continues to oppose the bounce, and so bulls will need a strong push to challenge what remains a bearish outlook on the longer daily cycle indicators. Link

Jonathan Levinson : 12/20/2005 1:09:02 PM

Session low for gold here at 497.50, silver -.26 at 8.379.

Jonathan Levinson : 12/20/2005 1:08:35 PM

Foreign central banks took a respectable 3.2B of the 11B 4-week bill auction. The bills sold for 3.495% yielding 3.553%, bid to cover a strong 2.99.

Jeff Bailey : 12/20/2005 1:05:10 PM

01:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 12/20/2005 1:02:43 PM

Matrix Service (MTRX) $8.95 +0.56% Link ... Will report Q2 results on Thursday, January 5, 2006 prior to market's open. This small-cap name lacks institutional coverage with 3 analysts forecasting earnings of $0.07 for the quarter. Link

Jonathan Levinson : 12/20/2005 12:59:12 PM

Session high for NQ futures here, QQQQ 1 cent away Link . The short cycle is getting up there, but given that it spent most of yesterday trending in oversold, there's room to the upside if it can clear resistance to the pivot at 41.12.

Jeff Bailey : 12/20/2005 12:55:02 PM

Matrix Service (MTRX) alert $8.90 (unch) ... seeing some very unusual call option action in the MTRX Feb. $7.50 Calls (QXW-BU) at the bid of $1.90.

174 contracts have traded with OI of 1,651.

Jonathan Levinson : 12/20/2005 12:44:13 PM

Ten year notes are edging sideways above the lows, TNX +2 bps at 4.462%, flatter now against the IRX which is up 3 bps at 3.89%. Awaiting the 1PM release of the 4-week bill auction results.

Jeff Bailey : 12/20/2005 12:35:15 PM

Dow Industrials as well as SPX challenge their rising 21-day SMA's of 10,850 and 1,262.

Jane Fox : 12/20/2005 12:30:59 PM

Well maybe Drake just "rang" in the Santa Claus rally.

Jeff Bailey : 12/20/2005 12:26:05 PM

I thought I heard sleigh bells a minute ago Jane. However, it was Drake scratching and his dog tags jingling.

Jane Fox : 12/20/2005 12:23:32 PM

Has Santa just arrived?

Jane Fox : 12/20/2005 12:23:14 PM

TICKS +1000

Jonathan Levinson : 12/20/2005 12:22:21 PM

QQQQ now ticks above the 72 SMA, printing 41.02. The short cycle indicators are still stalled as the wavelet rises. The light volume suggests that 41.00 was not the neckline- a volume pop on a move above 41.12, the next candidate could do it. The implied target on a reverse h&s from 41.00 would be around 41.23, while above 41.10 it would be in the mid 41.40s. Link

Jeff Bailey : 12/20/2005 12:19:03 PM

12:00 Internals found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 12/20/2005 12:16:15 PM

Volume breadth 1:1 on the NYSE, -1.2:1 on the Nasdaq here.

Jeff Bailey : 12/20/2005 12:06:10 PM

12:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 12/20/2005 12:05:46 PM

Session low for Feb. gold here -7.5 at 498.70.

Jeff Bailey : 12/20/2005 12:03:28 PM

Apache Corp. (APA) $70.44 +1.83% ... 60-minute interval chart at this Link with same retracement we've been trading.

MACD looking bullish compared to earlier this month.

WEEKLY Pivot held resistance yesterday. That's a bulls first test for strength in my opinion.

Jonathan Levinson : 12/20/2005 12:01:51 PM

QQQQ has failed at the 72 SMA , and the wavelet cycle downphase has been strong enough to stall the short cycle upphase. The pullback is shallow so far, just 8 cents, and price is net unchanged from its premarket levels. Link

Jeff Bailey : 12/20/2005 11:46:14 AM

QQQQ $41.00 +0.19% ...

Jeff Bailey : 12/20/2005 11:45:49 AM

Google (GOOG) $431.04 +1.51% ...

Jeff Bailey : 12/20/2005 11:45:19 AM

SOX.X 489.71 +1.21% ... reclaims WEEKLY S2.

Jonathan Levinson : 12/20/2005 11:42:21 AM

Volume breadth is up to neutral, -1.05:1 on the NYSE, -1.15:1 on the Nasdaq.

Jonathan Levinson : 12/20/2005 11:41:47 AM

If this is a reverse h&s breakout for QQQQ, it's very slow and on light volume. A small pop in volume came in on the move past 41.00, but it's not enough yet to confirm a breakout if one occurred: Link

Jane Fox : 12/20/2005 11:41:00 AM

Dateline CNN Federal judge rules "intelligent design" cannot be included in Pennsylvania public school biology courses.

Jonathan Levinson : 12/20/2005 11:32:59 AM

QQQQ tests 72 SMA resistance for the first time since 1PM yesterday: Link

Jeff Bailey : 12/20/2005 11:32:12 AM

Google (GOOG) $431.00 +1.50% ... DAILY Pivot 430.20.

Jeff Bailey : 12/20/2005 11:17:16 AM

11:00 Internals found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 12/20/2005 11:16:08 AM

Volume breadth -1.2:1 on the NYSE, -1.5:1 on the Nasdaq.

Jonathan Levinson : 12/20/2005 11:12:46 AM

QQQQ 41.00, in addition to being the 72 SMA on the 3 min chart, could also be the neckline of a reverse h&s printed today: Link

Jeff Bailey : 12/20/2005 11:07:57 AM

11:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 12/20/2005 11:07:08 AM

Back to find QQQQ breaking the prior bounce high and the short cycle in a clean upphase with the COMPQ back above 2220. But the wavelet is looking toppy, and 41.00 QQQQ confluence has not yet been tested: Link

Jeff Bailey : 12/20/2005 11:04:01 AM

PFE $24.15 -0.69% ...

Jeff Bailey : 12/20/2005 11:03:06 AM

Swing trade bullish call alert ... let's take five (5) of the Pfizer PFE Jan $25 Calls (PFE-AE) at the offer of $0.30.

Stock traded $23.89 this morning. See Friday's option montage comments.

Jonathan Levinson : 12/20/2005 10:51:48 AM

Stepping away for a few minutes.

Jeff Bailey : 12/20/2005 10:51:10 AM

Dow Jones Home Construction (DJUSHB) 936.34 -0.15% ... I've thought yesterday's, then today's housing data rather "bullish," but homebuilders not all that enthusiastic. Here's my bar chart with two conventional retracement at this Link

Bulls need the BLUE 38.2% and rising 200-day SMA to provide the bounce.

Did you know that the 30-year Treasury YIELD ($TYX.X) is currently down 16.1 bp over past 52-weeks?

Jonathan Levinson : 12/20/2005 10:49:08 AM

Could be this, Marc:

LAGOS (Dow Jones)--Shell Nigeria has shut in 170,000 barrels-a-day of crude oil after a blast at an oil pipeline operated by the company in Nigeria"s delta region, a Shell spokesman said Tuesday. The spokesman said the pipeline was attacked earlier Tuesday by unknown persons. The pipeline is located in Nigeria"s Opobo Channel in Nigeria"s southern delta. (MORE TO FOLLOW) Dow Jones Newswires 20-12-05 1540GMT Copyright (c) 2005 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.

Jonathan Levinson : 12/20/2005 10:45:41 AM

Crude oil up to a -.025 loss at 58.025, natgas -.215 at 13.82 here.

Jonathan Levinson : 12/20/2005 10:36:31 AM

The Qs are bouncing from a fill of November's gap Link , but so far it's just a wavelet upphase with the trending short cycle indicators ticking up. Nasdaq 2220 needs to be recovered and the 72 SMA at 41.08 to confirm anything beyond wavelet strength, due to the oversold trending moves in the remaining intraday oscillators. Volume breadth remains solidly negative at -2.3:1 on the Nasdaq.

Jeff Bailey : 12/20/2005 10:29:18 AM

U.S. Dollar Index (dx00y) 90.46 +0.65% ... dollar strong this morning. Those of you using QCharts' WEEKLY Pivot levels will note WEEKLY R1 at 90.399. It looks as if QCharts is using a Monday 08:05 AM EST open to Friday 03:00 PM EST close to calculate their WEEKLY Pivot levels.

I've always used a Sunday trade (high or low) to Friday final tick for my WEEKLY Pivot Levels.

My point here is that dollar strength has tended to bring strength to gold and broader equities in recent months.

I still hold a couple of the QQQQ Jan $42 Puts (QQQ-MP) in my personal account that I had profiled at $1.20 back on 11/16/05 and I currently have an order to sell these at $1.50, should the QQQQ trade its MONTHLY Pivot ($40.66).

I think we're just seeing some post-expiration gyrations, but think the MARKETS will put together another rally into the New Year. Perhaps a INDU 11,000 trade to get things started.

From the intra-day internals, we see the 5-day and 10-day NH/NL ratios reversing back lower, some profit taking at the top. Once some stability, then the expansion move higher.

QQQQ MONTHLY Pivot the place in my mind to begin looking.

Jonathan Levinson : 12/20/2005 10:26:00 AM

Bonds are trying to bounce again, TNX down to a 2.4 bp gain at 4.46%, IRX up 3 bps to 3.89%.

Jonathan Levinson : 12/20/2005 10:13:19 AM

Volume breadth is down to -1.25:1 on the NYSE, -2:1 on the Nasdaq.

Jonathan Levinson : 12/20/2005 10:12:57 AM

QQQQ 30/60 min channel support line up at 40.74 here: Link

Jeff Bailey : 12/20/2005 10:12:10 AM

10:00 Internals found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 12/20/2005 10:05:50 AM

Headlines:

JAN NATURAL GAS FALLS 12.3C, OR 0.9%, TO $13.92/MLN BTUS

FEB CRUDE RISES 30C TO $58.35/BRL

JAN CRUDE CLIMBS 36C TO $57.70/BRL IN EARLY NY TRADING

Jonathan Levinson : 12/20/2005 10:04:49 AM

A phone call to the NY Fed confirms that the Fed has taken no action today, for a net 7.5B drain.

Jeff Bailey : 12/20/2005 10:03:15 AM

10:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 12/20/2005 9:59:05 AM

Buy Program Premium ... DIA $108.36, SPX 1,259.71, QQQQ $40.90

Jonathan Levinson : 12/20/2005 9:58:15 AM

Still waiting for the Fed's repo news.

Jonathan Levinson : 12/20/2005 9:57:13 AM

Wired News/AP reports on the NY transit strike: Link

Jonathan Levinson : 12/20/2005 9:51:24 AM

Awaiting the Fed's announcement regarding its 7.5B overnight repo expiring today.

Jonathan Levinson : 12/20/2005 9:45:48 AM

Nasdaq trades below yesterday's 2220 low, currently -4.29 at 2218.45.

Jonathan Levinson : 12/20/2005 9:45:23 AM

Session low for QQQQ at 40.89 just printed. Note the high number of downside 30 min channel violations since yesterday. Link I've programmed each violation to print a green arrow, as the keltner breaks (like bollinger breaks) tend to indicate an extreme/unsustainable spike. When there's a large number of such moves in a short/intraday timeframe, it indicates a trending move- a directional move influenced by a longer timeframe. In this case, I believe it's the daily cycle causing the 30 min and 60 min cycles to trend lower. This makes bottom-picking particularly treacherous- falling knife stuff. Here's a daily chart of the Qs, Link

Jonathan Levinson : 12/20/2005 9:40:39 AM

Session low for ten year notes here at 108 57/64, TNX up 2.4 bps at 4.466%, steeper against the 13-week bill rate, up 1.7 bps at 3.877%.

Jonathan Levinson : 12/20/2005 9:32:22 AM

Volume breadth is +1.15:1 on the NYSE, +1.46:1 on the Nasdaq at the open.

Jonathan Levinson : 12/20/2005 9:38:06 AM

QQQQ has 72 SMA resistance at 41.26, 30/60 min channel resistance at 41.35 and 41.50, 30/60 min channel support at 40.90.

Jeff Bailey : 12/20/2005 9:31:49 AM

Morgan Stanley (MWD) $56.67 Link ... Called higher at $57.87 after the investment banker said Q4 earnings climbed 49%.

For Q4, Morgan Stanley said after-tax net earnings came in at $1.79 billion, or $1.68 per share, compared to $1.2 billion, or $1.09 per share in the year-ago period. Revenue rose 28% to $6.96 billion from $5.42 billion a year ago.

The quarter included a one-time tax benefit of $280 million, or $0.26 per share due to the repatriation of $4 billion of foreign earnings allowed under the American Jobs Creation Act.

Bottom line figures easily surpasses Wall Street's consensus estimate of $1.08 per share. Consensus estimate was for revenue of $6.51 billion.

Jeff Bailey : 12/20/2005 9:26:06 AM

Verizon (VZ) $30.52 Link .... 2,750,000 share block crosses the wire at $30.52 (09:06:15 AM EST)

Jeff Bailey : 12/20/2005 9:19:32 AM

Program Trading Levels ... HL Camp & Company has their computers set for program buying at $+8.82 and set for program selling at $+6.98.

Jonathan Levinson : 12/20/2005 9:14:55 AM

Cycle-wise, QQQQ is maxed out to the downside on the 30 and 60 min timeframes, usually a good level at which to scope for long entries at a low. In fact, this is what I tried to do yesterday in the 41.35 area before getting stopped for breakeven. The intraday cycles are due for an upphase, while the daily cycles (and weekly) are overdue for a decline. The picture is further complicated by the distortions caused by the opex week range, and the light volume at the top and the surge in volume on the downside. A selling spike this morning could be a good time to try scalp longs to catch the anticipated intraday cycle upphase using a tight stop. However, a breakdown could quickly gain steam given the daily support break yesterday and the ongoing daily cycle downphase.

Jane Fox : 12/20/2005 9:03:10 AM

An addendum to the last post The New York Stock Exchange said essential employees could ride to the exchange's Lower Manhattan headquarters on chartered buses provided by the Securities Industry Association. The financial-services industry group also is providing rides to certain employees at more than a dozen Wall Street firms and banks. Many employees will telecommute from home or other offices. Traders and brokers who work on the NYSE floor are also making plans to come to the exchange by carpools, taxi cab or foot.

The Nasdaq Stock Market isn't expected to be as affected since it is an electronic market. The New York Mercantile Exchange, which trades energy and metals futures, has also chartered buses and booked hotel rooms for essential personnel in Lower Manhattan and Jersey City, N.J.

Jane Fox : 12/20/2005 8:59:27 AM

Dateline WSJ Unionized transit workers struck New York City's sprawling subway and bus system, the nation's largest, after the union and the Metropolitan Transportation Authority failed to agree on terms for a new contract and avert a damaging work stoppage.

New York financial markets, including the New York Stock Exchange, said they plan to stay open at normal hours despite the strike. The Nasdaq Stock Market isn't expected to be as affected since it is an electronic market.

The citywide transit strike, the first since 1980, is expected to cause major disruption for commuters, holiday shoppers, delivery companies and truckers throughout New York and could deal a blow to the city's economy at the height of the Christmas shopping season. The city's subway and bus system transports more than seven million passengers each weekday.

Jane Fox : 12/20/2005 8:55:52 AM

Dateline WSJ An Alaska state authority charged that BP PLC and Exxon Mobil Corp., the world's largest publicly traded oil companies, are conspiring to withhold natural gas from U.S. markets and reinforce their market power over North Slope supplies.

In an antitrust suit filed late yesterday in federal court in Fairbanks, the Alaska Gasline Port Authority alleged that a series of illegal agreements and acquisitions by the companies has choked the flow of the state's vast gas reserves. It seeks to stop the companies' alleged collusion through a court injunction and unspecified damages.

Exxon and BP spokesman both denied the accusations that the companies were trying to delay exports of gas from Alaska. "This is another sobering reminder of our litigation-crazed society. This suit is frivolous and it's totally without merit," says Exxon spokesman Russ Roberts.

The lawsuit is the latest twist in a 30-year effort to move the estimated 37 trillion cubic feet of natural gas within Alaska's sprawling oil field, enough to satisfy two year's worth of U.S. demand. There is currently no significant natural-gas production in the North Slope; gas now produced by oil wells is injected into underground reservoirs. The dispute comes at a time when U.S. natural-gas prices are soaring.

Jonathan Levinson : 12/20/2005 8:35:17 AM

Ten year note yields decline to a 1 bp gain now at 4.452%. Looks like they were waiting for the Housing data.

Jonathan Levinson : 12/20/2005 8:33:35 AM

Housing starts 2.123M vs. 2.02M exp, prior revised from 2.014M to 2.017M

Building Permits 2.155M vs. 2.092M exp., prior unrevised

Jonathan Levinson : 12/20/2005 8:32:21 AM

QQQQ +.11 to 41.03 here. Still awaiting Housing data.

Jonathan Levinson : 12/20/2005 8:31:07 AM

Headlines:

U.S. NOV. PPI DOWN 0.7% VS. FALL 0.3% EXPECTED

U.S. NOV. CORE PPI UP 0.1%, VS. RISE 0.2% EXPECTED

U.S. NOV. PPI DECLINE LARGEST SINCE APRIL 2003

U.S. PPI UP 4.4% IN PAST 12 MONTHS

U.S. CORE PPI UP 1.7% IN PAST 12 MONTHS

U.S. NOV PPI ENERGY PRICES DOWN 4.0%

Jonathan Levinson : 12/20/2005 8:30:38 AM

Session highs across the board for equities, ten year notes flat, TNX +2.2 bps at 4.464%.

Jonathan Levinson : 12/20/2005 8:22:42 AM

Bonds hold their losses, ten year note yields quoted higher by 2.4 bps at 4.466% for the cash open.

Jonathan Levinson : 12/20/2005 7:46:41 AM

Equities are up, ES trading 1269, NQ 1681.5, YM 10899 and QQQQ +.06 at 40.98. Gold is up 2.6 to 508.90, silver is down .001 to 8.638, ten year notes are -3/32 to 108 31/32, crude oil is up .325 to 58.375 and natgas is down .26 to 13.785.

We await the 8:30 releases of Housing Starts and Building Permits, est. 2.02M and 2.092M respectively, and the PPI and Core PPI, est. -.5% and +.2% respectively.

Market Monitor Archives