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OI Technical Staff : 12/21/2005 9:59:59 PM

The Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

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Jeff Bailey : 12/21/2005 6:06:03 PM

Today's 03:12 PM EST Temperatures with February Nat. Gas and Heating Oil futures settlements at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 12/21/2005 6:03:35 PM

Closing Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 12/21/2005 5:51:10 PM

Closing U.S. Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 12/21/2005 5:42:22 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles found at this Link ... Today's Activity ... Sold 1/2 of a bullish call position in the Apache Corp. APA Feb $70 Calls (APA-BN) at the bid of $4.30 ($+0.70, or +19.44%).

Smirking ... It'll be the death of me when those traders with a $5,000.00 account get gapped against and holding 10 of these contracts. Please don't overleverage your trading account in options.

Jeff Bailey : 12/21/2005 5:25:42 PM

Bullish call option establish stop alert ... Let's place a stop at $1.10 on the Dow Diamonds DIA Jan $107 Calls (DIA-AC) at $1.10. This should correspond to a DIA trade at $106.90.

Jeff Bailey : 12/21/2005 5:22:28 PM

Bullish call option raise stop alert Raising the stop on the Matrix Services MTRX Feb. $7.50 Calls (QXW-BU) to $1.20, which should be correlative to the underlying shares at $8.40.

Action again today in Jan06 $7.50 calls $1.90 (34:982), May06 $7.50 calls $2.80 (19:123), Jan06 $10 calls $0.50 (62:393). Again... this thinly traded stock, and option chain, usually goes days if not weeks with no action. High implied volatility may be all that is finding some attention as VIX approaches historic lows.

Jeff Bailey : 12/21/2005 4:05:27 PM

Sell Program Premium ... DIA $108.16, SPY $126.13

Jeff Bailey : 12/21/2005 4:04:48 PM

Headline ... Fed's Lacker denies rate-hike vow.

Jeff Bailey : 12/21/2005 4:03:40 PM

Headline ... Senate blocks plan for drilling in ANWR.

Jeff Bailey : 12/21/2005 4:01:16 PM

Sell Program Premium ... DIA $108.20, SPY $126.09

Jeff Bailey : 12/21/2005 3:55:35 PM

Feb. Heating Oil (ho06g) ... settled up $0.0298, or 1.73% at $1.7785.

Jeff Bailey : 12/21/2005 3:53:04 PM

Apache Corp. (APA) $70.93 +0.68% ...

Jeff Bailey : 12/21/2005 3:51:38 PM

Feb. Nat. Gas (ng06g) settled up $0.19, or +1.35% at $14.34.

Sliiiiightly bearish settlement. Penny below the WEEKLY Pivot.

EIA Nat. Gas tomorrow.

I can't second guess this morning's decision to reduce some exposure, take a profit.

Play some "jingle bells" with the DIA $108.25 +0.33%

Jonathan Levinson : 12/21/2005 3:48:35 PM

QQQQ daily chart updated at this Link , the downphase still in progress but weaker than yesterday on the higher price range since this AM. The weekly indicators point lower Link , but there's still room for a retest of the year high if the daily cycle downphase aborts here.

Jane Fox : 12/21/2005 3:47:57 PM

Then just like that the TICKs hit +800 again.

Jeff Bailey : 12/21/2005 3:43:08 PM

Sell Program Premium ... DIA $108.07, SPX 1,261.39, QQQQ $41.05

Jeff Bailey : 12/21/2005 3:40:05 PM

Sell Program Premium ... DIA $108.13, SPX 1,261.93, QQQQ $41.03

Jane Fox : 12/21/2005 3:40:01 PM

GE breaking to a new monthly low. Link

Jonathan Levinson : 12/21/2005 3:33:49 PM

Volume breadth holds positive, +1.35:1 on the Nasdaq, but the wavelet upphase for the Qs is failing at a lower high. If bears can crack the 30 min channel bottom at 40.90, the next goal is yesterday's low. Still a mystery as to where those massive repo adds went, other than the morning's equity meltup.

Jeff Bailey : 12/21/2005 3:25:50 PM

DIA $108.14 +0.23%

Jeff Bailey : 12/21/2005 3:25:25 PM

Swing trade bullish call alert ... Let's go long two (2) of the Dow Diamonds DIA Jan $107 Calls (DIA-AC) at $2.10. Targeting 110.00 and Dow 11,000.00.

Jonathan Levinson : 12/21/2005 3:19:55 PM

Daily cycle points lower, but a higher high and higher low today will take a notch of wind out of its sail. The round trip today is bearish, but the higher range is net positive. Bears need more than just sideways drift from here to count out the chance for a retest of the year highs. The 60 min cycle still wants higher.

Jonathan Levinson : 12/21/2005 3:18:15 PM

QQQQ's bounce is just a wavelet upphase so far, the short cycles ticking up slightly within their trending downphase. It will take a break of the previous high at the 72 SMA, 41.17, to confirm a new short cycle upphase. Link

Jeff Bailey : 12/21/2005 3:16:20 PM

Go for what?

Jeff Bailey : 12/21/2005 3:16:08 PM

I say bulls go for it ....

Jonathan Levinson : 12/21/2005 3:12:22 PM

Ten year yields finished +2 bps at 4.486%, 13 week rate +.5 bps at 3.892%.

Jeff Bailey : 12/21/2005 3:05:26 PM

03:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 12/21/2005 3:03:12 PM

OEX 576.06 -0.02% ... slips red.

Top 5 ... GE $35.32 -0.61%, XOM $57.41 -0.94%, MSFT $26.72 -0.52%, C $49.22 (unch), WMT $48.51 -0.18%

Jonathan Levinson : 12/21/2005 3:02:07 PM

It's amazing how long a minute can last wondering where the market is while away from a quotescreen and pretending to listen to a conversation.

GOOG is down 4.7 at 425.04, now over 12 dollars off its intraday high. Yesterday's low was broken at noon after a higher high, and a close below 424 will qualify for a bearish key reversal. Link

Jeff Bailey : 12/21/2005 2:58:52 PM

Utilities -1.03% and Semiconductors -0.72% and Natural Gas -0.73% pacing this decline/reversal.

Jonathan Levinson : 12/21/2005 2:58:27 PM

Glad and relieved to be back. Resistance at 41.41 was never revisited, and the Qs are testing the opening gap now in a bearish short cycle trending move. Volume breadth is, of course, still positive, but it's come down to more reasonable levels, +1.7:1 on the NYSE and +1.4:1 on the Nasdaq. Despite the reversal, this is still a bullish day, a higher high and higher low printed, and only a break below 41.75 would change that. If the short cycle reverses back up, today will most likely go to the bulls. Chart: Link

Jeff Bailey : 12/21/2005 2:56:23 PM

Sell Program Premium ... DIA $108.08, SPX 1,261.45, QQQQ $41.00.

Jeff Bailey : 12/21/2005 2:52:20 PM

SPX Options Chain found at this Link ... Buyer outnumber sellers 3:2 for the SPY, but the call sellers at 1,275-1,325 is notable. Even as the VIX.X falls.

The call selling came just as the EIA data was release, or so it looks from an intra-day volume chart.

Jeff Bailey : 12/21/2005 2:37:11 PM

United Airlines reported a $187 million net loss for November, citing continuing reorganization charges and high fuel costs as its three-year bankruptcy draws to a finish.

Non-case reorganization expenses for the month totaled $159 million, consisting largely of aircraft-related transactions, and fuel cost the company $124 million more than a year earlier due to the 39 percent jump in prices since the previous November.

The company has now reported net losses of $15.1 billion since last turning a profit in the second quarter of 2000, including $5.2 billion this year and $9.9 billion since it filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy in December 2002. But UAL said the recent net losses are misleading since they reflect claims that are expected to be settled for a fraction of the charges, meaning the company will be taking a multibillion-dollar gain when it leaves bankruptcy in February.

Chief Financial Officer Jake Brace noted that operating earnings for the first 11 months of 2005 were up by $450 million over a year ago despite a $1.3 billion increase in fuel costs.

The company said it increased its cash supply by $310 million during November to $3 billion, with $959 million of it restricted.

Jeff Bailey : 12/21/2005 2:31:51 PM

NYC's Mayor Bloomberg ... Concerned by reports of taxi fare gouging.

Appears more people made it to work today.

Impact of strike rippling through economy.

Jeff Bailey : 12/21/2005 2:25:19 PM

Feb. Nat. Gas (ng06g) $14.18 +0.21% ... kissed the WEEKLY Piv but found sellers.

APA $71.06 +0.86% ....

CHK $33.01 +1.60% ....

Jeff Bailey : 12/21/2005 2:15:01 PM

02:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 12/21/2005 2:07:36 PM

02:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 12/21/2005 1:53:57 PM

Utility Index (UTY.X) 430.44 -0.74% ... quick drop in last 1/2 hour.

Jeff Bailey : 12/21/2005 1:52:08 PM

SOX 485.92 -0.09% ... slips back into red.

Google (GOOG) $425.84 -0.89% ...

QQQQ $41.11 +0.41% ....

Jeff Bailey : 12/21/2005 1:49:49 PM

Feb. Nat. Gas (ng06g) $14.32 +1.20% (30-min delayed) ... after initial test of WEEKLY Pivot. Trader's now measure a response.

APA $71.14 +0.97% ... again.... stocks should "lead" the commodity. APA has been either side of WEEKLY Pivot.

CHK $32.99 +1.53% .... has held above WEEKLY Pivot ($32.66) for most of session, other than opening ticks. Session low has been $32.60.

Jeff Bailey : 12/21/2005 1:31:25 PM

Nat. Gas Index (XNG.X) 410.47 -0.29% .... session lows. WEEKLY Pivot 413.37

Jeff Bailey : 12/21/2005 1:30:30 PM

Chesapeak Energy (CHK) $33.01 +1.60% ...

Jeff Bailey : 12/21/2005 1:29:49 PM

Apache (APA) $70.93 +0.68% ...

Jeff Bailey : 12/21/2005 1:29:25 PM

Feb. Heating Oil (ho06g) $1.78 +1.71% ... WEEKLY Pivot still ahead at $1.81.

Jeff Bailey : 12/21/2005 1:28:40 PM

Feb. Nat Gas (ng06g) $14.32 +1.20% (30-min. delayed) ... sets up for test of WEEKLY Pivot. First time this week if traded.

Key ahead of tomorrow's EIA Nat Gas report.

Jeff Bailey : 12/21/2005 1:17:02 PM

01:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 12/21/2005 1:06:40 PM

01:00 Market Watch found at this Link ... After 2.82 million draw in distillate, heating oil not impressing me.

Jeff Bailey : 12/21/2005 12:50:16 PM

Correction ... Feb Nat. Gas (ng06g) $14.10 -0.35% .... QCharts' WEEKLY Pivot is $14.35

Jeff Bailey : 12/21/2005 12:36:53 PM

Apache Corp. (APA) $71.02 +0.80% ... Similar to Feb Nat Gas .... WEEKLY Pivot $71.01

Jeff Bailey : 12/21/2005 12:39:50 PM

Matrix Service (MTRX) $9.18 +0.76% ... finds a bid above bar chart downward trend. WEEKLY Pivot $9.11

Jeff Bailey : 12/21/2005 12:49:25 PM

Feb. Nat. Gas (ng06g) alert $14.10 -0.35% (30-min delayed) ... important near-term level here. Overlapping retracement.

Jeff Bailey : 12/21/2005 12:17:00 PM

12:00 Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 12/21/2005 12:14:42 PM

12:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 12/21/2005 12:06:29 PM

QQQQ $41.24 +0.70% ...

Jeff Bailey : 12/21/2005 12:06:12 PM

Google (GOOG) 423.31 -1.48% ... turns defensive.

Jeff Bailey : 12/21/2005 12:02:23 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles found at this Link

Note: We did sell 1/2 of the APA bullish position. For those trading the underlying shares, I forgot to reduce to 100 from 200.

Jonathan Levinson : 12/21/2005 11:42:03 AM

I need to leave in 10 minutes to attend a Christmas party that I was unable to get out of. This kind of stuff always seems to fall at a crucial moment, and I'm not looking forward to being away from the screen for the 2 or so hours it's likely to take. Key resistance is at QQQQ 41.40 QQQQ followed by 41.52 which is downtrend resistance off last week's high. Below 41.21, it's the 72 SMA at 41.10.

Jonathan Levinson : 12/21/2005 11:39:31 AM

Very wimpy short cycle downphase so far for QQQQ, and on much lighter volume than the upphase that preceded it. So far, it's corrective off the high. Link

Keene Little : 12/21/2005 11:38:19 AM

Jonathan, when you find my wave let me know. It's usually a no-show (including the dip I was hoping for this morning).

Jonathan Levinson : 12/21/2005 11:33:25 AM

GOOG trades -1.14 here at 428.60, going negative. I'm just noticing the light volume on QQQQ, 32.8M shares so far- this is no doubt due in part to the transit strike in New York. I wonder if the Fed's aggressive liquification this AM was also due to that.

Jonathan Levinson : 12/21/2005 11:18:49 AM

13-week bills are catching a bid, the IRX down to unchanged at 3.887%. Ten year notes are holding their losses, however.

Jonathan Levinson : 12/21/2005 11:15:43 AM

This little bounce should be "Keene's wave" within the short cycle, a bounce to a lower high to confirm it. If so, a break below 41.21 is the minimum level to spell trouble for bulls, above which the shorter intraday cycles will begin trending in overbought territory. Link

Jane Fox : 12/21/2005 11:15:16 AM

This kind of day is easy to trade. Just stay long. Link

Jeff Bailey : 12/21/2005 11:13:10 AM

11:00 Internals found at this Link

Jane Fox : 12/21/2005 11:10:13 AM

TICKS +800.

Jonathan Levinson : 12/21/2005 11:05:32 AM

Volume breadth settles to +4.3:1 on the NYSE, +3:1 on the Nasdaq, price stopping right on former resistance. The short cycle has rolled over while the wavelet is trying to turn up- that could yield chop that should eventually break to the downside, but above the 72 SMA at 41.10, the 30 min channel upphase will continue to climb and limit the impact of the short cycle's overbought/downward bias. Link

Jeff Bailey : 12/21/2005 11:02:35 AM

11:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 12/21/2005 10:55:30 AM

EIA Weekly Crude Oil, Gasoline, Distillate Inventory Table found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 12/21/2005 10:50:49 AM

Strange to see ten and 13-week bond yields holding their gains despite the multiple repos. Equities are still holding the lion's share of their gains despite the decline off the high.

Jeff Bailey : 12/21/2005 10:50:12 AM

Valero Energy (VLO) $52.75 +2.94% Link ...

Jonathan Levinson : 12/21/2005 10:46:38 AM

R2 held, with the current high 41.41 QQQQ. It's just a wavelet downphase so far, however- the toppy short cycle indicators are flattening but not ticking down. A break below 41.18 should be enough to do it. Link

Jeff Bailey : 12/21/2005 10:44:46 AM

EIA Weekly Gross Inputs, Operable Capacity, % Utilization Table found at this Link

Keene Little : 12/21/2005 10:43:37 AM

Jonathan, just saw your comment on Fed repo (10:30). The Fed wants to make sure Greenspan gets a friendly send off next month. What better way to do it than create more electronic money and inject it into the market. In all seriousness though, this is what's ludicrous about their jawboning the market about the need to raise interest rates to fight inflation. They're creating money (M3) at a far faster rate than GDP or CPI. They've been hyperinflating the banking system for quite a while now. They're afraid of something.

Jeff Bailey : 12/21/2005 10:36:10 AM

Bullish call exit partial alert ... Let's sell half of the Apache Corp. APA Feb $70 Calls (APA-BN) at the bid of $4.30

APA $71.30

Jonathan Levinson : 12/21/2005 10:36:03 AM

Headlines:

10:34am VICE PRESIDENT CHENEY PASSES TIEBREAKING VOTE ON BUDGET BILL

10:34am SENATE PASSES $40 BILLION IN BUDGET CUTS

Jonathan Levinson : 12/21/2005 10:32:24 AM

Headlines:

CRUDE SUPPLIES UP 1.3M BBLS IN LATEST WEEK: DOE

GASOLINE SUPPLIES DOWN 300K BBLS IN LATEST WEEK: DOE

DISTILLATE SUPPLIES DOWN 2.8M BBLS IN LATEST WEEK: DOE

Jonathan Levinson : 12/21/2005 10:31:17 AM

Session high for crude oil at 58.65 here, +.55.

Jane Fox : 12/21/2005 10:31:47 AM

The VIX did not make a new daily low to match ES's new daily high. This could be the first hint a top is in the making. Of course it is not enough to take a bearish position. Link

Jonathan Levinson : 12/21/2005 10:30:27 AM

From the EIA website:

U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) rose by 1.3 million barrels from the previous week. At 322.5 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are well above the upper end of the average range for this time of year. Total motor gasoline inventories inched down by 0.3 million barrels last week, putting them in the lower half of the average range. Distillate fuel inventories dropped by 2.8 million barrels last week, and are also in the lower half of the average range for this time of year. Decreases were seen in both high-sulfur (heating oil) distillate fuel and low-sulfur (diesel fuel) distillate fuel inventories. Total commercial petroleum inventories decreased by 7.8 million barrels last week, but remain above the upper end of the average range for this time of year.

Jonathan Levinson : 12/21/2005 10:30:13 AM

Astounding! The Fed has added a second repo, a 2-day repo for 6B, bringing the day's count to +18B net. I've never seen a repo added after an overnight's been announced. No idea why they're feeding the fire so aggressively this AM.

Jeff Bailey : 12/21/2005 10:27:54 AM

Toll Brothers (TOL) $35.07 -2.50% ... coiling intra-day at PnF chart's bearish vertical count.

Jonathan Levinson : 12/21/2005 10:27:53 AM

A meltup is in progress here, session highs across the board ahead of the EIA report, volume breadth now up to +4.9 and +4.1:1 for the NYSE and Nasdaq. R2 is at confluence resistance at 41.38, the next logical place for resistance as the short cycle grows toppy. But there's room for it to trend as the 30 and 60 min cycles continue to rise. So far, the Fed's huge 12B net add is bypassing bonds entirely, and I'm not inclined to try standing in front of equities again as they continue to be bought higher.

Jane Fox : 12/21/2005 10:27:36 AM

TICKS +800

Jeff Bailey : 12/21/2005 10:26:03 AM

Maxtor (MXO) $6.56 +45.13% Link ... Hard disk drive maker atop this morning's percentage gainer list and most active list after agreeing to be acquired by Seagate (STX) $19.35 -1.27% Link for $1.9 billion in stock.

Disk Drive Index (DDX.X) 143.31 +5.87% Link

Jane Fox : 12/21/2005 10:22:02 AM

This is not the time to try shorts. Link

Jeff Bailey : 12/21/2005 10:20:15 AM

10:00 Internals found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 12/21/2005 10:19:41 AM

Awaiting the EIA Petroleum report in 11 minutes. See my 8:04AM post for the estimates compiled by DJ Newswire.

Jonathan Levinson : 12/21/2005 10:18:58 AM

Volume breadth +4.3:1 on the NYSE, +3.5:1 on the Nasdaq.

Jonathan Levinson : 12/21/2005 10:16:05 AM

QQQQ is holding at the highs, right on R1, and our tight stop is 3 cents away. I won't be widening it, and if it fails, there's resistance at 41.35-41.38. Stopped out as I type:

QQQQ - Exit Point Alert -

Out QQQQ at 41.25, -.04

Jane Fox : 12/21/2005 10:12:20 AM

The Santa Claus rally usually is the last five days of the year and the first two of the New Year.

Jonathan Levinson : 12/21/2005 10:09:54 AM

Ten year note yields are up to a 2.6 bp gain at 4.492%, IRX up 2 bps at 3.907% despite the Fed's big 12B net add today.

Jane Fox : 12/21/2005 10:08:02 AM

Stock Trader's Almanac says the Santa Claus rally should start on Thursday December 22nd but remember the old adage "If Santa Claus should fail to call, Bears will come to Broad and Wall."

Jonathan Levinson : 12/21/2005 10:06:55 AM

Trying to front run the wavelet/short cycle decline coming due.

Jonathan Levinson : 12/21/2005 10:06:27 AM

QQQQ - Entry Point Alert -

Short QQQQ at 41.21 stop tight at 41.25

Jeff Bailey : 12/21/2005 10:04:25 AM

10:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 12/21/2005 10:04:00 AM

30 min channel violation printed here- often a short cycle top, except that here the short cycle is only now approaching overbought territory and still has room to run before trending. Link

Jonathan Levinson : 12/21/2005 10:02:38 AM

QQQQ chart updated at this Link , testing rising 30 min channel resistance here. If it fails, R1 resistance is at 41.21, now in play.

Jeff Bailey : 12/21/2005 9:57:24 AM

Bullish swing trade call alert ... Place an order to sell long the Toll Brother TOL Jan $40 Calls (TOL-AH) for $0.50 per contract.

TOL-AH currently $0.15 x $0.25

TOL $35.50 -1.30% ...

Jonathan Levinson : 12/21/2005 9:55:20 AM

The Fed announces a 12B overnight repo, all net add to the market.

Jonathan Levinson : 12/21/2005 9:54:40 AM

QQQQ and NQ testing yesterday's highs.

Jonathan Levinson : 12/21/2005 9:52:29 AM

The Fed has no expiries today, so any open market apps will result in net adds.

Tab Gilles : 12/21/2005 9:50:22 AM

USPIX Profund UltraShort OTC (USPIX). As per 12/20 12:28 AM post, where as $NASI SELL was signaled. Added to 1/2 position on last nights closing NAV of $15.22. 11/30 purchase was $15.03, average cost basis $15.13.

USPIX Link

$NASI daily & weekly Link Link

$VXN Link

$NAHL Link

$NDX Link Link Link

Jonathan Levinson : 12/21/2005 9:47:46 AM

Volume breadth strengthens to +3.7:1 on the NYSE, +4.4:1 on the Nasdaq. It's worth noting that even on the worst down days, volume breadth rarely reaches the same extremes that we see routinely on up days.

Jonathan Levinson : 12/21/2005 9:45:25 AM

QQQQ printed a low right on the 72 SMA, holding at gap support, and then sprung back to the highs, testing the premarket highs here. With the short cycle, 30 min cycle and 60 min cycles in gear to the upside, yesterday's highs are looking likely to fail as resistance. Link

Jonathan Levinson : 12/21/2005 9:32:20 AM

Volume breadth is +3.25:1 on the NYSE, +2.6:1 on the Nasdaq at the open.

Jonathan Levinson : 12/21/2005 9:31:50 AM

72 SMA support for QQQQ is at 41.01, 30/60 min channel resistance at 41.12-41.18, 30/60 min channel support at 40.78-.82.

Jane Fox : 12/21/2005 9:19:14 AM

Dateline WSJ Calpine Corp. filed for protection from creditors under the U.S. bankruptcy code in the Southern District of New York, bogged down by $17.2 billion in debt it amassed in an ill-fated attempt to become the biggest power generator in the U.S.

The filing last night came less than a month after Calpine's board pushed out its two top executives, including founder and Chief Executive Peter Cartwright, and just a week after it brought in a new chief executive, Bob May, a former health-care industry executive who helped guide HealthSouth Corp. through a recent accounting scandal

Jane Fox : 12/21/2005 9:17:36 AM

Dateline WSJ The pace of U.S. economic growth was slightly slower in the third quarter than earlier believed, as the government trimmed estimated consumer spending on cars, but growth was still the strongest since early 2004.

The Commerce Department said Wednesday that gross domestic product, the broadest measure of economic growth, expanded at a seasonally adjusted 4.1% annual rate in July through September. The report was the government's third and final reading on the economy's performance in the third quarter.

The revised growth rate was lower than the earlier estimated 4.3%, a figure issued a month ago, but better than the second quarter's 3.3% rate and first quarter's 3.8%. It was the strongest quarterly gain in GDP since the first three months of 2004, when GDP rose at a 4.3% rate.

Jonathan Levinson : 12/21/2005 8:57:24 AM

QQQQ's 30 min cycle upphase stalled yesterday afternoon without reaching overbought territory, while the 60 min cycle turned up and held in the early stages of a slow, hesitant upphase. This morning's strength will likely revive the 30 min cycle upphase if it sticks through the first half-hour of trading. Yesterday's high at 41.15 is the key price level to watch for a possible breakout. I will post the SMA and channel markets when they update for me at the opening bell.

Jonathan Levinson : 12/21/2005 8:34:07 AM

Equities have edged slightly lower but still holding most of their gains, NQ +5 at 1684.5 and QQQQ +.10 at 41.05.

Jonathan Levinson : 12/21/2005 8:33:05 AM

Chain deflator 3.3% vs. 3.0% est.

Jonathan Levinson : 12/21/2005 8:32:42 AM

Ten year notes are down to a 3/32 loss at 108 27/32, TNX up 1 bp at 4.478% and steeper against the 13-week bill rate, whcih is down .5 bps to 3.882%.

Jonathan Levinson : 12/21/2005 8:31:26 AM

Headlines:

U.S. Q3 GDP UP REV 4.1% VS 4.3% PREV EST.

U.S. Q3 GDP BELOW RISE 4.3% FORECAST

U.S. Q3 DOWNWARD REVISION DUE TO LOWER CONSUMER SPENDING

U.S. Q3 CORPORATE PROFITS DOWN REV. 4.0% VS 3.4% PREV. EST.

Jonathan Levinson : 12/21/2005 8:20:21 AM

Ten year notes have ticked up off their lows, currently -3/64 at 108 57/64, with the TNX quoted -.2 bps at 4.464% here. 10 minutes until the GDP data.

Jonathan Levinson : 12/21/2005 8:10:16 AM

ATI (ATYT) is up 2.42% to 16.90 after reporting a 4% drop in revenues and an 88% decline in profits, but beating consensus estimates. Adjusted EPS was down from 28 cents in the year-ago quarter to 10 cents in the current quarter, beating estimates of 4 cents. Revenue came in at 591M, beating estimates by 42M.

Jonathan Levinson : 12/21/2005 8:04:28 AM

AP reports that a DJ Newswire poll has analysts expecting the 10:30AM EIA report to show a decline of 1.1 million barrels in crude oil and distillate inventories, and a build of 600,000 barrels of gasoline.

Jonathan Levinson : 12/21/2005 7:50:08 AM

SAN JOSE, Calif., Dec. 20 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- Calpine Corporation (OTC Pink Sheets: CPNL - News) announced today that, in order to allow continued operations at its power plants and facilities in the U.S., Canada, and Mexico, strengthen its balance sheet, protect its assets, and enhance the value of its business, the company and many of its subsidiaries, including Calpine Generating Company, LLC, filed voluntary petitions to restructure under Chapter 11 of the U.S. Bankruptcy Code in the U.S. Bankruptcy Court for the Southern District of New York in Manhattan.

Link

Jonathan Levinson : 12/21/2005 7:17:51 AM

From the Mortgage Bankers Assoc. website:

WASHINGTON, D.C. (December 21, 2005) - The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) today released its Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending December 16. The Market Composite Index - a measure of mortgage loan application volume was 594.6 -- a decrease of 4.0 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from 619.3 one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 5.2 percent compared with the previous week and was down 15.2 percent compared with the same week one year earlier.

The seasonally-adjusted Purchase Index decreased by 5.2 percent to 453.1 from 477.9 the previous week, whereas the Refinance Index decreased by 1.6 percent to 1418.1 from 1441.8 one week earlier. Other seasonally adjusted index activity includes the Conventional Index, which decreased 4.2 percent to 888.2 from 927.5 the previous week, and the Government Index, which remained steady at 105.0.

The four week moving average for the seasonally-adjusted Market Index is down 1.6 percent to 623.7 from 633.9. The four week moving average is down 1.0 percent to 475.6 from 480.4 for the Purchase Index while this average is down 2.7 percent to 1485.2 from 1526.7 for the Refinance Index.

The refinance share of mortgage activity increased to 41.7 percent of total applications from 40.2 percent the previous week. The adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) share of activity decreased to 32.6 percent of total applications from 33.5 percent the previous week.

Jonathan Levinson : 12/21/2005 7:16:38 AM

Equities are up, ES trading 1271, NQ 1685, YM 10880, and QQQQ -.02 at 40.93. Gold is down 1.2 to 495.90, silver is down .028 to 8.367, ten year notes are down 5/64 to 108 55/64, crude oil is up .275 to 58.375 and natgas is down .075 to 14.005.

We await the 8:30 release of the Q3 GDP, est. 4.3%, chain deflator, est. 3%, and at 10:30, the EIA Petroleum report.

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