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Jeff Bailey : 12/22/2005 11:43:28 PM

Program Trading Levels for Friday ... HL Camp & Company has their computers set for program buying at $+8.36 and set for program selling at $+6.58.

OI Technical Staff : 12/22/2005 9:59:59 PM

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Jeff Bailey : 12/22/2005 9:18:48 PM

Today's 03:12 PM EST Temperatures with February Nat. Gas and Heating Oil futures settlements at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 12/22/2005 9:10:04 PM

Closing Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 12/22/2005 8:58:20 PM

Closing U.S. Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 12/22/2005 8:45:10 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles found at this Link ... Bid figures may be incorrect as I captures the profile screen well after today's close.

Jeff Bailey : 12/22/2005 8:25:02 PM

Dow Jones Home Construction (DJUSHB) ... Bar chart I've put together with some ties to recent April-current readings at this Link

MBA weekly data table at this Link

Last night I was looking at the MBA table and noticed that recent Purchases and Conventional measures were very similar in late March to mid-April as we've seen the past 2-3 weeks (yellow) areas for MBA table and DJUSHB.

On the bar chart, I did set the cursor window to the 06/15/05 bar, which would have been the day that the MBA released the record Purchase Index and sharp increase in Refinance (note the 30-year fixed 5.47% in relation to refinance measure.)

At the top of the DJUSHB, that's got to be "the bubble top" that everyone is talking about. Hey... that may be the "bubble top" as the Fed continues to mention housing price pressures as one part of its monetary policy decision making.

Tomorrow morning we're going to get hit with another round of "housing data" and November New Home Sales.

October's data was a record with new home sales jumping 13% to a 1.424 million annual rate.

If there was a "negative" (it depends if you're a buyer or a seller), it was that home prices rose a more modest 1.6%, and the number of homes still on the market (supply) reached a record 496,000.

OK ... let's discuss Tol Brothers (TOL) $35.69 +1.01% real quick, as it relates to tomorrow's trade.

For those still long the TOL Jan $40 Calls (TOL-AH) I've suggested we have a sell order in at $0.55 per contract (profiled at $1.10) as I didn't get the +500 Purchases reading I felt we needed for my TOL bullish target of $42 by expiration.

Tomorrow's New Home sales data may be a Jan Call holders "last chance" for vindication (10:00 AM EST) and traders may have to think fast.

Here's an idea/plan.

IF sales come in ABOVE consensus (1.3 million anual rate) then I think about cancelling order to sell at $0.55, but I/we also need to see a "bullish" light from number of homes on the market (October was 496,000) and I'm thinking TOL bulls need to see that supply eaten into. How much? Ugh! ... Down to 400,000 maybe?

Jeff Bailey : 12/22/2005 6:13:53 PM

Wal-Mart (WMT) $48.60 -0.10% ... DJ - An Alameda County jury on Thursday awarded more than $207 million to thousands of employees at Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (WMT) who claimed they were illegally denied lunch breaks.

The world's largest retailer was ordered to pay $57 million in general damages and $150 million in punitive damages to about 116,000 current and former California employees for violating a 2001 state law that requires employers to give 30-minute, unpaid lunch breaks to employees who work at least six hours.

Jeff Bailey : 12/22/2005 4:16:36 PM

Updated PnF chart of Feb. Nat Gas (ng05g) at this Link ... I hand charted today's activity (red O).

Hey! Bullish support trend and WEEKLY S1 ($12.92).

Might explain why APA Link didn't fall apart today.

Jeff Bailey : 12/22/2005 4:03:10 PM

Apache (APA) goes out at $71.11 +0.21% ...

Jeff Bailey : 12/22/2005 4:02:26 PM

Feb. Nat. Gas (ng06g) settled down $1.32, or -9.21% at $13.02.

Sliiightly bullish with Weekly S1 holding $12.92.

Jonathan Levinson : 12/22/2005 3:46:06 PM

Price is now above the 30 min channel top with the short cycles overbought and approaching the ceiling. Going short this close to the close is a recipe for a sleepless night dreaming of gap up opens- but on an intraday basis, the bulls should be running out of racetrack if they haven't just done so while I typed: Link

Jeff Bailey : 12/22/2005 3:34:56 PM

Apple Computer (AAPL) $74.36 +1.17% ... sets up for test of all-time highs ($75.46)

Jeff Bailey : 12/22/2005 3:33:54 PM

PortalPlayer (PLAY) $28.85 +4.6% ... Conventional retracement from May lows to recent September highs has stock at 19.1% retracement.

Jeff Bailey : 12/22/2005 3:30:43 PM

Pfizer (PFE) $24.01 -0.12% ...

Jonathan Levinson : 12/22/2005 3:30:31 PM

Headlines:

3:28pm BLOOMBERG: TRANSIT AUTHORITY NEEDS 10-18 HRS TO FULL SERVICE

3:29pm BLOOMBERG: BUS SERVICE SHOULD START TONIGHT

3:28pm NY MAYOR BLOOMBERG: NEXT WORKER SHIFT STARTS AT 4PM EASTERN

Jeff Bailey : 12/22/2005 3:29:53 PM

Dow Diamonds (DIA) $108.68 +0.49% ...

Jeff Bailey : 12/22/2005 3:29:27 PM

IBM $83.09 -0.03% ... did just tick green.

Jonathan Levinson : 12/22/2005 3:29:14 PM

QQQQ's 30 min cycle should be peaking here, but the 60 min cycle upphase has plenty of room to run. Above 41.41, the daily cycle downphase will at least stall, and possibly turn up. This would be the level to short for aggressive bears. Volume is very weak, and the climb uninspiring. The trouble is that there's been no hint of an unsustainable spike, and the short cycle has room to run higher before maxing out in overbought. Sitting it out for now. Link

Jeff Bailey : 12/22/2005 3:20:43 PM

Apache (APA) $71.07 +0.15% ... with a feather in its headband, stick its head back above WEEKLY Pivot.

Tab Gilles : 12/22/2005 3:17:44 PM

$NDX/$NASI seeing similarites to mid-August. Link Link Link Link

Jeff Bailey : 12/22/2005 3:16:36 PM

03:00 Internals found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 12/22/2005 3:11:36 PM

Volume breadth +1.5:1 on the NYSE, +2.1:1 on the Nasdaq.

Tab Gilles : 12/22/2005 3:10:03 PM

Murphy Oil (MUR) daily chart.... Link 60 minute chart.... Link PnF.... Link

Jeff Bailey : 12/22/2005 3:04:56 PM

03:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 12/22/2005 3:01:59 PM

Dumping the QQQ-MP in personal account at the offer of $0.95

QQQQ $41.30

VXN.X 13.86

Jonathan Levinson : 12/22/2005 3:00:50 PM

New high for QQQQ at 41.30 here, approaching confluence resistance and descending trendline resistance off the year high, all lined up at 41.34-.40. 30 min 10 day chart at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 12/22/2005 2:55:05 PM

Headline:

2:54pm NY TRANSIT WILL TAKE 10-18 HOURS TO REACH FULL SERVICE: NY 1

Jeff Bailey : 12/22/2005 2:51:46 PM

MMS figures come to 27.5% oil, 19.6% natural gas. (see 02:49:55 post)

Jeff Bailey : 12/22/2005 2:50:46 PM

Chesapeak Energy (CHK) $32.19 -2.36% ...

Jeff Bailey : 12/22/2005 2:50:20 PM

Apache (APA) $70.89 -0.09% ...

Jeff Bailey : 12/22/2005 2:49:55 PM

Department of MMS alert ... Sluggish recovery in US Gulf oil, gas output vs. Monday.

412,687 b/d oil, 1.96 bcf/d gas off line.

Jeff Bailey : 12/22/2005 2:39:36 PM

I'm going to take a longer-term flyer in my personal account. Two (2) of the Altria MO Jun $85 Calls (MO-FQ) at $1.50 offer.

Jonathan Levinson : 12/22/2005 2:38:13 PM

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- New York's transit union workers will return to work for their next shift, members of the Transport Workers Union Local 100 executive board said. The board voted 38-5 to send subway and bus workers back to work. Earlier, mediators between management and the union had proposed that the workers return to their jobs while negotiations continue. The strike was in its third day.

Jonathan Levinson : 12/22/2005 2:34:57 PM

Crude oil finished -.225 at 58.325 Link and natural gas lost 1.4 to close at 12.87. Link

Jeff Bailey : 12/22/2005 2:34:28 PM

Altria (MO) $76.61 +0.39% Link .... Hmmmmmm....

See that RAI chart?

Jeff Bailey : 12/22/2005 2:31:18 PM

Reynolds American (RAI) $95.57 +0.65% Link ... California high court overturns $14.8 million fine. Tells lower court to review whether fine is excessive.

Jonathan Levinson : 12/22/2005 2:28:05 PM

Volume breadth -1.5:1 on the NYSE, -2.05:1 on the Nasdaq.

Jonathan Levinson : 12/22/2005 2:24:43 PM

QQQQ holds within its 5 cent range for the past hour, the short cycle indicators gathering below overbought territory in a bearish divergent high if they don't succeed in breaking higher from here. The wavelet is losing it from a lower high, suggesting a downward bias here in the shortest timeframe, but at this point the action is mostly just noise. Volume remains very light. Link

Jeff Bailey : 12/22/2005 2:22:20 PM

Ford (F) $7.98 -0.49% ... UAW said 51% of members vote in favor of healthcare deal.

The agreement is said to save Ford $850 million annually in health care expenses.

Jeff Bailey : 12/22/2005 2:18:05 PM

02:00 Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 12/22/2005 2:11:34 PM

Apache (APA) $71.06 +0.14% ... holding WEEKLY Pivot ($71.01)

Jeff Bailey : 12/22/2005 2:11:04 PM

Feb. Nat Gas (ng06g) $12.99 -9.44% (30-min delayed) ... just kissed WEEKLY S1 ($12.92)

Jeff Bailey : 12/22/2005 2:05:32 PM

02:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 12/22/2005 2:00:50 PM

Pfizer (PFE) $24.03 -0.04% ...

Jeff Bailey : 12/22/2005 1:58:05 PM

IBM $82.45 -0.80% ...

Jeff Bailey : 12/22/2005 1:57:28 PM

Dow Diamonds (DIA) alert $108.57 +0.36% ... sticks its head above WEEKLY Pivot.

Jonathan Levinson : 12/22/2005 1:57:17 PM

Volume breadth +1.45:1 on the NYSE, +2.2:1 on the Nasdaq.

Jeff Bailey : 12/22/2005 1:52:15 PM

Fed's Lacker : Impressed with recent productivity growth.

Jeff Bailey : 12/22/2005 1:50:39 PM

Dollar ... Brazil's Central Bank calls auction to buy US dollars.

Buys US dollars at BRL2.331

Jonathan Levinson : 12/22/2005 1:49:08 PM

Headlines:

1:43pm FED'S LACKER: TOO SOON TO SAY RATES CONSISTENT WITH GROWTH

1:43pm FED'S LACKER: ENERGY-RELATED PRICE RISKS NOT YET OVER

1:44pm LACKER SAYS NOT WORRIED ABOUT LOW U.S. PERSONAL SAVINGS RATE

1:45pm LACKER SAYS YIELD CURVE NOT USEFUL AS ECONOMIC PREDICTOR

Jeff Bailey : 12/22/2005 1:44:19 PM

Dow Components (price weighted index) at this Link

INDU Link

DIA Link

Head

IBM Link

MMM Link

MO Link

BA Link

AIG Link

Tail

INTC Link

T Link

DIS Link

PFE Link

GM Link

Jonathan Levinson : 12/22/2005 1:42:54 PM

The short cycle is turning up early after a no-show downphast for the past hour and a half. This looks like a very flat bullish triangle with resistance at the highs of the day, but resistance continues to look stiff from 41.34-41.41. Link

Jeff Bailey : 12/22/2005 1:26:32 PM

BioCryst (BCRX) $17.25 +13.47% ... I didn't know that BCRX now trades with options. Root is BIU

Jeff Bailey : 12/22/2005 1:17:16 PM

01:00 Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 12/22/2005 1:07:20 PM

01:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 12/22/2005 1:04:52 PM

Volume breadth holds at + 1.4:1 on the NYSE, +2:1 on the Nasdaq. QQQQ volume is just 35.1M so far, very light, and so far the wavelet cycle upturn (middle oscillator pane) is getting poor traction, just like the downphase that preceded it. Link

Jane Fox : 12/22/2005 1:02:10 PM

The VIx just made a new daily low while the TICKS hit +800. The bulls are flexing their muscles.

Jonathan Levinson : 12/22/2005 12:53:53 PM

Headline:

12:52pm GM GM: COURT GRANTS PRELIMINARY APPROVAL OF UAW HEALTHCARE DEAL

GM trades -.13 at 18.92 here

Jonathan Levinson : 12/22/2005 12:36:56 PM

Headlines:

12:35pm FED'S LACKER SEES INTEREST RATES FLUCTUATING

12:36pm RATES TO FLUCTUATE AS ECONOMY GROWS, LACKER SAYS

Jeff Bailey : 12/22/2005 12:37:36 PM

AG Edwards (AGE) $46.01 +1.56% Link ... Brokerage posts net income of $54.4 million, or 71c a share, matching analysts' forecasts. Revenue increases 5.9% to $677.4 million, below Thomson First Call mean estimate of $684 million. Shares gain 2%.

"Nasty" looking reverse h/s pattern developing. Neckline $46.50-ish, head $40, shoulders $43.

Jonathan Levinson : 12/22/2005 12:31:56 PM

A wavelet downphase is growing bottomy on QQQQ, on the verge of trending, and the short cycle indicators are downticking. So far the decline is even weaker than the upphase that preceded it, mostly running the clock. Link

Jonathan Levinson : 12/22/2005 12:19:38 PM

The yield curve has flattened further, with the 13-week rate now up 1.5 bps to 3.907% and the ten year yield down 5.3 bps to 4.433%. Gold peaked at 507.20 intraday, currently up 10.50 at 505.80.

Jonathan Levinson : 12/22/2005 12:16:25 PM

Volume breadth +1.4:1 on the NYSE, +1.9:1 on the Nasdaq- a mere slowdown in buying, no evidence of actual selling.

Jeff Bailey : 12/22/2005 12:15:58 PM

12:00 Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 12/22/2005 12:06:20 PM

12:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 12/22/2005 12:00:36 PM

Ford (F) $8.01 -0.12% ... DJ - UAW in Minnesota also reject company's health-care pact.

Jonathan Levinson : 12/22/2005 11:58:47 AM

NQ returns to the session high, QQQQ as well, on a spike in volume. This higher drift has the short cycle oscillators drifting mostly sideways- more bullish than bearish, but mostly trendless and corrective. More significant is the higher low again today. If the bulls can crack that 41.34 resistance level and clear yesterday's 41.41 high, we'll see preliminary buy signals in that daily timeframe. Link

Jane Fox : 12/22/2005 11:56:55 AM

Dateline CNN NYC transit workers union leaders agree to a return to work while strike talks continue, mediator says. Deal must be OK'd by union executive board.

Jeff Bailey : 12/22/2005 11:54:14 AM

Pacholder High Yield (PHF) $8.61 -1.14% ... chatter among bond desks is that renewed weakness in General Motors (GM) debt has once again brought some lack of liquidity to the junk market.

Jeff Bailey : 12/22/2005 11:52:32 AM

Strong bid for Treasuries today.

The Treasury did say it plans to sell $32.0 billion in T-Bills on Tuesday vs. $34.0 billion at the previous weekly three-and six-month auction.

Jeff Bailey : 12/22/2005 11:49:35 AM

Ford Motor (F) $8.01 -0.12% ... DJ - UAW in Kansas City, Kentucky reject company's health-care pact.

Jeff Bailey : 12/22/2005 11:48:11 AM

Current OPEN MM Profiles at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 12/22/2005 11:43:25 AM

CNBC Nov. New Home Sales Survey ... DJ - Nov. sales consensus (20 economists) at 1.3 million, -8.7%.

October consensus was 1.218, actual was 1.424 and record-high.

Jeff Bailey : 12/22/2005 11:32:29 AM

National Weather Service 3-day forecast map Link

Linda probably out by the pool today.

Jonathan Levinson : 12/22/2005 11:30:23 AM

Session high for gold, +10.50 at 505.80, with TNX down 4.8 bps at 4.438% and IRX down 1.2 bps at 3.88%. Crude oil is up .15 at 58.70 while natgas is down 1.13 at 13.14.

Jeff Bailey : 12/22/2005 11:29:21 AM

Matrix Service (MTRX) $9.18 -0.86% ....

Jeff Bailey : 12/22/2005 11:28:32 AM

Apache Corp. (APA) $71.33 +0.52% ...

Chesapeak (CHK) $32.64 -1.03% ...

Jeff Bailey : 12/22/2005 11:27:35 AM

Feb. Nat Gas (ng06g) $13.30 -7.28% (30-min delayed) ... major crack here. Break of neckline for reverse h/s pattern.

Jeff Bailey : 12/22/2005 11:26:15 AM

11:00 Internals found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 12/22/2005 11:25:46 AM

From the Treasury website:

The Treasury will auction 13-week and 26-week Treasury bills totaling $32,000 million to refund an estimated $30,877 million of publicly held 13-week and 26-week Treasury bills maturing December 29, 2005, and to raise new cash of approximately $1,123 million.

Jonathan Levinson : 12/22/2005 11:22:08 AM

QQQQ tests the current high from a higher low, a small bullish triangle on the 1 and 3 min charts, breaking higher as I type. Volume is weak, and the advance is sloppy on the short cycle indicators. 30 min channel resistance is holding at today's R2 at 41.34, and so far it's looking like that level has a good chance to hold as resistance if tested. Link

Jonathan Levinson : 12/22/2005 11:20:21 AM

Headline:

NYC TRANSIT UNION BOARD TO MEET AT 1.00 PM ET: NY ONE

Jonathan Levinson : 12/22/2005 11:15:53 AM

Volume breadth up to +1.4 :1 on the NYSE, +1.9:1 on the Nasdaq.

Jeff Bailey : 12/22/2005 11:15:09 AM

Dow Diamonds (DIA) $108.46 +0.28% ... back to challenge WEEKLY Pivot and overlapping MONTHLY 108.56 pivot analysis retracement Link

Jeff Bailey : 12/22/2005 11:11:24 AM

NY Transit Strike ... Headlines ... Mediators have commenced talks on NYC transit strike.

Agreed to take steps to return to work.

Believe immediate media blackout essential.

TWU board vote on framework expected by end of today.

Jonathan Levinson : 12/22/2005 11:10:52 AM

Headlines:

MEDIATORS URGE IMMEDIATE MEDIA BLACKOUT

NYC TWU HEAD TO RECOMMEND TO BOARD THAT STAFF RETURN TO WORK

Jeff Bailey : 12/22/2005 11:06:45 AM

Amerco (UHAL) $72.43 -0.11% ...

Jeff Bailey : 12/22/2005 11:05:27 AM

11:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 12/22/2005 11:04:34 AM

Headlines:

11:03am MEDIATORS ASK UNION WORKERS TO RETURN TO WORK NOW

11:02am NYC TRANSIT STRIKE AGREEMENT 'OUT OF REACH': MEDIATORS

Jeff Bailey : 12/22/2005 11:01:23 AM

Toll Brother (TOL) $35.90 +1.61% ... back to challenge its trying to turn up 21-day SMA ($35.80) with 50-day SMA ($36.20) still trending lower.

I did some additional work with the MBA survey last night. Will try and discuss today.

Jonathan Levinson : 12/22/2005 11:01:15 AM

A small burst of volume popped QQQQ above the prior high, but there was no followthrough and those prior highs are now being tested from above. Volume is very light, still, and price is being driven easily by these small bursts. Link

Jeff Bailey : 12/22/2005 10:58:40 AM

Dow Jones Home Construction (DJUSHB) 950.93 +1.13% ... moves above Tuesday's high.

Jonathan Levinson : 12/22/2005 10:52:07 AM

Stuck on the phone with the bank. QQQQ and NQ hold flat as a pancake, volume breadth +1.7:1 on the Nasdaq.

Jeff Bailey : 12/22/2005 10:51:35 AM

Apache Corp. (APA) $71.27 +0.43% ...

Chesapeake (CHK) $32.85 -0.39% ...

Jeff Bailey : 12/22/2005 10:47:28 AM

EIA Distillate, Nat. Gas, Diesel, Jet Fuel Table found at this Link ... With last week's more frigid temperatures, the weekly draw not as bullish for nat. gas traders as I would have thought.

"Warmer" temperatures this week has me thinking something in the order of -80 bcf (eyeball) next week.

Jeff Bailey : 12/22/2005 10:43:39 AM

Goldcorp (GG) $20.11 +1.66% ... released for trade.

Jonathan Levinson : 12/22/2005 10:37:33 AM

GG / PDG / ABX press release at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 12/22/2005 10:35:39 AM

EIA Regional Nat. Gas Table found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 12/22/2005 10:33:35 AM

Natgas (QGF06) down .78 at 13.48 here. Session low was 13.335.

Jonathan Levinson : 12/22/2005 10:32:59 AM

Current natgas storage report at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 12/22/2005 10:32:35 AM

Headline:

NATURAL GAS IN STORAGE DOWN 162 BCF IN LATEST WEEK: DOE

Jeff Bailey : 12/22/2005 10:32:32 AM

Apache (APA) $71.22 +0.36% ...

Jonathan Levinson : 12/22/2005 10:35:34 AM

Good morning Jon. What levels do you use for MACD to indicate oversold/overbought. Example, for CCI I use +/- 200

Generally, I go only for the "shape" of the Macd oscillator and eyeball the histogram. As seen on my intraday charts, the measurements aren't even calibrated beyond +/- .05. Because the Macd will print buy/sell signals above/below the zero line, the absolute level is less important in hunting for reversals. I use the TRIX and Stochastics for earlier signals, and the Macd usually trails along- the Macd is of more use to me in identifying bullish/bearish divergences and seeing where the turns occur- above or below the zero line. Generally, my earliest signal will come from the twitchy wavelet oscillator, a 10-5-3 setting on the slow stochatic on my 3 min and 100 tick charts. That oscillator leads the Macd, but it trends very easily and so is unreliable on its own. Link

Jeff Bailey : 12/22/2005 10:31:29 AM

EIA Nat Gas draw down of 162 bcf

Jeff Bailey : 12/22/2005 10:27:31 AM

BioCryst (BCRX) $16.95 +11.43% ... bar chart with conventional (BLUE) and bull fit 38.2% (GREEN) at this Link

PnF chart at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 12/22/2005 10:29:00 AM

Headlines:

[ABX, PDG] BARRICK'S INCREASED PLACER DOME BUY VALUED AT $10.4B

[ABX, PDG] BARRICK TO BUY PLACER DOME FOR UPPED PRICE OF $22.50/SHARE

[ABX, PDG] PLACER DOME SHAREHOLDERS CAN OPT FOR $22.50 CASH PER SHARE

[ABX, PDG, GG] GOLDCORP AGREES TO UPPED $1.485B PRICE FOR PLACER ASSETS

[ABX, PDG, GG] PLACER DOME, BARRICK DEAL INCLUDES $259.7M BREAKUP FEE

[ABX, PDG, GG] GOLDCORP AGREES TO UPPED $1.485B PRICE FOR PLACER ASSETS

Jonathan Levinson : 12/22/2005 10:22:00 AM

At 9.5M QQQQ shares traded so far, this is very light volume- roughly just over 1/3 of what I'd expect on an ordinary day during the first hour.

Jonathan Levinson : 12/22/2005 10:20:49 AM

Volume breadth +1.2:1 on the NYSE, +1.5:1 on the Nasdaq.

Jeff Bailey : 12/22/2005 10:17:20 AM

10:00 Internals found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 12/22/2005 10:24:15 AM

Back to find the short cycle upphase getting stalled by a wavelet downphase on QQQQ. The 30 min cycle upphase has been revived, but so far it's failed at lower highs, throwing a wrench into the tentatively bullish stall in the longer daily cycle upphase discussed earlier this AM. 10 day 15-min chart at this Link Bears need a print below yesterday's 40.99 pivot.

Jeff Bailey : 12/22/2005 10:04:45 AM

10:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 12/22/2005 10:01:59 AM

Stepping away for 5 minutes.

Jonathan Levinson : 12/22/2005 10:00:48 AM

Headlines:

7 OUT OF 10 U.S. LEADING INDICATORS RISE IN NOV.

U.S. NOV. LEADING ECONOMIC INDICATORS UP 0.5%

Jonathan Levinson : 12/22/2005 9:54:12 AM

Awaiting the LEI report in 6 minutes.

Jonathan Levinson : 12/22/2005 9:53:59 AM

QQQQ breaks to a new high. 30 min channel resistance is up to 41.25, 60 min flat at 41.32. Link

Jonathan Levinson : 12/22/2005 9:53:07 AM

A 7B overnight repo just announced drains net 4B for the day, but the stop out rate at 4.22% remains below the overnight target rate, indicating lower demand for the Fed's money on the part of its dealers.

Jeff Bailey : 12/22/2005 9:54:08 AM

Barrick Gold (ABX) $27.22 Link and Placer Dome (PDG) $22.65 Link ... both halted with news pending.

Jonathan Levinson : 12/22/2005 9:47:00 AM

13-week bill rate gets back to flat at 3.892% while the ten year yield holds at 4.454%, just 2.4 bps above the overnight rate. Gold has added a dime to its gains, now 499.40.

Jeff Bailey : 12/22/2005 9:45:23 AM

BioCryst (BCRX) $17.50 +15.05% ... BIG short squeeze potential on today's break above $16.50.

FDA OKs human testing of company's influenza drug.

Jeff Bailey : 12/22/2005 9:42:54 AM

OPEC ... President saying China's 2006 crude oil demand to grow by 350,000 b/d.

Jonathan Levinson : 12/22/2005 9:40:40 AM

Session high for ten year notes, with TNX now down 3.2 bps at 4.454%, while the 13-week rat holds a slight .5 bp loss at 3.887%. Gold is up 4 at 499.30 here.

Jeff Bailey : 12/22/2005 9:39:02 AM

OPEC saying today that any Q2 output cut will depend on market situation.

Jane Fox : 12/22/2005 9:39:01 AM

ER is the only to break its previous day highs so far and is our stronger market.

Jeff Bailey : 12/22/2005 9:38:00 AM

Chesapeake Energy (CHK) $33.37 +1.18% ... perhaps the "purest" play on domestic nat. gas.

Jeff Bailey : 12/22/2005 9:37:12 AM

Apache Corp. (APA) $71.36 +0.56% ... holds fractional gain early.

Feb. Nat. Gas (ng06g) $13.80 -3.79% (30-minute delayed) ....

Jonathan Levinson : 12/22/2005 9:36:41 AM

Yesterday's R1 and today's 30 min channel top held back the opening surge on the Qs: Link

Jane Fox : 12/22/2005 9:34:24 AM

AD line is a strong +675 and Ad volume is above 0 so the bulls have the reins.

Jonathan Levinson : 12/22/2005 9:33:44 AM

Volume breadth is + 3:1 on the NYSE, +2.3:1 on the Nasdaq at the open.

Jonathan Levinson : 12/22/2005 9:33:21 AM

The 10AM repo announcement is going to be very important. Futures were flat as a pancake until that 8:45AM announcement. If the Fed is going to jam more money into the hands of its dealers as it did yesterday morning and this AM (so far), all bearish bets will be off.

Jeff Bailey : 12/22/2005 9:32:39 AM

PETsMART (PETM) $26.42 +5.42% ... hot early. No news that I can find.

Jane Fox : 12/22/2005 9:32:09 AM

The fact that the bears were able to overcome such a strong AD line and AD volume yesterday should be very worrisome to the bulls. From what I seen in the past an AD line and volume as strong as it was have never been overtaken before. This to me is another sign the bears are getting stronger and stronger.

Jonathan Levinson : 12/22/2005 9:31:29 AM

72 SMA support is at 41.12 QQQQ, 30 min channel resistance at 41.22 and 60 min resistance at 41.31. 30/60 min channel support is at 41.00-41.05.

Jane Fox : 12/22/2005 9:00:11 AM

Dateline WSJ (this is recap of the data Jonathan posted) U.S. personal income and spending grew less than expected in November, and a closely watched inflation indicator fell to its lowest level since the spring of 2004.

Personal income rose last month at a seasonally adjusted rate of 0.3%, after climbing a revised 0.5% in October, the Commerce Department said Thursday. October's gain was previously reported at 0.4%. November personal consumption grew 0.3%, after an unrevised 0.2% increase the month before. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires and CNBC had forecast a 0.4% increase in both personal income and consumer spending.

Wages and salaries rose 0.2% last month after growing 0.6% the previous month. Disposable personal income -- income after taxes -- increased 0.3%, following a revised 0.2% increase in October.

Jane Fox : 12/22/2005 8:58:07 AM

Dateline WSJ The European Commission on Thursday threatened Microsoft Corp. with penalties of up to ?2 million ($2.37 million) a day if the U.S. software giant doesn't make a greater effort to comply with the commission's 2004 antitrust ruling.

The commission charged that Microsoft isn't complying with an EU order that it provide greater access to code for its Windows operating system to makers of media-playing software and other competitors.

The commission insists that Microsoft -- to correct anticompetitive practices -- must provide better documentation on its software programs to competitors so their products can work with the dominant Windows PCs and servers.

Jonathan Levinson : 12/22/2005 8:45:01 AM

The Fed has 24B in various repos maturing today, and has just announced a 14-day repo in the amount of 13B, leaving 11B with which to deal at the 10AM announcement.

Jonathan Levinson : 12/22/2005 8:32:40 AM

Equities haven't budged, while bonds have firmed, TNX now down 2 bps at 4.466% and flatter against the IRX, down 1 bp at 3.882%.

Jonathan Levinson : 12/22/2005 8:31:52 AM

Headlines:

U.S. NOV. CONSUMER SPENDING UP 0.3%, IN LINE WITH FORECASTS

U.S. NOV. PERSONAL INCOME UP 0.3% VS 0.4% EXPECTED

U.S. NOV. CORE INFLATION RATE UP 0.1%

U.S. NOV. CORE INFLATION UP 1.8% YR-ON-YR, VS 1.9% OCT.

U.S. NOV. SAVINGS RATE AT -0.2%, SAME AS OCT.

U.S. NOV. WAGES, SALARIES UP 0.2%

U.S. NOV. DISPOSABLE INCOME UP 0.3%

Jonathan Levinson : 12/22/2005 8:31:21 AM

Headlines:

8:30am PRIOR WEEK JOBLESS CLAIMS REVISED UP TO 331,000

8:30am U.S. CONTINUING JOBLESS CLAIMS RISE BY 41,000 TO 2.6 MLN

8:30am U.S. 4-WEEK JOBLESS CLAIMS FALLS TO 324,000

8:30am INSURED UNEMPLOYMENT RATE RISES TO 2.1%

8:30am HURRICANE-RELATED CLAIMS NOW TOTAL 571,200

8:30am U.S. JOBLESS CLAIMS FALL BY 13,000 TO 318,000

Jonathan Levinson : 12/22/2005 8:30:40 AM

GE trades -.18 at 35.14. The company announced this AM that it has agreed to acquire Arden Realty (ARI) in a 4.8B deal (which includes the assumption of 1.6B in ARI debt). In connection therewith, GE has also agreed to sell 13 Arden properties collectively valued at approx. 1.6B to Trizec (TRZ).

Jonathan Levinson : 12/22/2005 8:27:51 AM

BEIJING (AP) - The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries is likely to reduce its crude-oil production after the high-demand Northern Hemisphere winter, the group's president said Thursday.

"I expect OPEC to decrease output for the second quarter," Sheikh Ahmad Fahad Al-Ahmad Al-Sabah said, adding that the group isn't expected to change its production policy for the first quarter.

His remarks, made during a one-day visit to Beijing to meet with top Chinese policy makers, are the latest hint from OPEC of its concerns that oil demand will fall after winter, bringing prices down.

Link

Jonathan Levinson : 12/22/2005 8:27:03 AM

Equities are ticking higher as we await the data, QQQQ up to 41.09 and ES 1271.25.

Jonathan Levinson : 12/22/2005 8:23:48 AM

QQQQ's daily cycle downphase is close to stalling in the wake of yesterday's higher range. As we've been seeing for weeks now, the intraday cycles are opposed, and that opposition is preventing a meaningful directional move from emerging. On the 30 and 60 min charts, we see a rising expanding wedge this week, a pattern famous for its chaotic feel without actually breaking out or failing. The 30 min cycle is in a downphase, half way done, while the 60 min cycle is at the top of an upphase just now stalling out.

Jonathan Levinson : 12/22/2005 8:20:58 AM

Ten year notes are holding a fractional gain, and yields are down slightly, TNX -.6 bps at 4.48% and IRX -1 bp at 3.882% with 10 minutes until the 8:30 data.

Tab Gilles : 12/22/2005 8:16:21 AM

Clarification....I want to apoligize. I realized last night that on the 12/21 9:50 AM post that I neglected to write the sale of the UOPIX fund. The remaining 1/2 position was closed out on the closing 12/20 NAV. I like Jim Brown have been ill this week and mistakingly omitted this in my post.

Here's the most recent trades on the Profunds.

10/26 entered 1/2 position UOPIX @ $22.66.... 11/2 Added 1/2 position UOPIX @ $23.66.... Average cost basis $23.16

11/30 sold 1/2 position UOPIX @ $25.40 (+9.67%) ...entered 1/2 position USPIX @ $15.03

12/20 Sold remaining 1/2 position in UOPIX @ $25.09 (+8.33)...added 1/2 position to USPIX @ $15.22...average cost $15.13, closing NAV as of last night @ $15.12. Link Link

Jonathan Levinson : 12/22/2005 7:51:05 AM

Equities are flat, ES trading 1270.5, NQ 1684.5, YM 10891 and QQQQ -.08 at 41.05. Gold is up 3.8 to 499.10, silver is up .065 to 8.50, ten year notes are up 1/32 to 108 13/16, crude oil is up .475 to 59.025 and natgas is down .32 to 13.95.

We await the 8:30 releases of Initial Claims, est. 325K, Personal Income and Personal Spending, est. .3% and .4% respectively, then at 10AM, Leading Economic Indicators, est. .9%, and at 10:30AM, the natural gas storage report.

Jeff Bailey : 12/22/2005 4:07:13 AM

Program Trading Levels for Thursday ... HL Camp & Company has their computers set for program buying at $+8.62 and set for program selling at $+6.49.

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