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OI Technical Staff : 12/23/2005 9:59:59 PM

The Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

Disclaimer: Stocks discussed in the Market Monitor are for educational purposes only and any analysis is not meant to imply a recommendation for or against that stock. The analysts in this forum as on any other website are prohibited by the SEC from giving any specific advice to ANY individual trader. All information posted is for ALL readers and is not meant to be directed to any individual. Our analysts cannot answer any email questions regarding any specific stock. Please do not ask and please do not take offense if requests are denied.

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Jeff Bailey : 12/23/2005 8:28:43 PM

Well, I've got some shopping I've got to get done, then a long drive tomorrow. Yes, it is off to Grandmother's house! I haven't seen her since last year at this time, and I'm looking forward to seeing her, my Aunt and her family.

Poor Drake. He is being shipped off to his Grandma and Grandpa's house, but he will undoubtedly have fun with their two Chocolate Labs. Lucy is the older dog and she can only take so much of Drake's playfulness. Pugsley, is kind of Drake's "girlfriend." Yes, a female dog named "Pugsley." Go figure. She was adopted by my parents from a neighbor down the street. "Pugger" as I like to call her would jump the fence of her owner and come over to my parents house to visit. Pretty soon, she started doing it every day. Dad got tired of taking her back to her master's house, and the owner asked my parents if they wanted to adopt her.

Hmmm... I look to much like my parents to wonder where I came from. However, I'm nothing like my older brother and younger sister. They've settled down, have kids. I'm still not ready for that! Too many birds for Drake and I to be researching at this point.

I can't believe that year 2005 is almost over!

My parents always told me that the older you get, the faster the years would go by. My father is a man of reason. He laid things out very similar to the Point and Figure chart's bullish %, on a scale of 0 to 100. "You see...." he explained, "the closer to 100 that you get, the faster, or smaller each year becomes as it relates to your life expectancy. The years simply seem to pass by faster. Enjoy your childhood while you can, it won't last forever." My dad owned his own life/health insurance agency, thus his life expectancy context.

Since I mentioned the bullish % indications, all major market bullish % are still in a column of X, with the more widely followed S&P 500 Bullish % ($BPSPX) "bull confirmed" at 70.60%. If you've been bullish since the reversal back higher in early November, don't forget to take some profits where you've got them!

Over the 3-day weekend, take a couple of days to put the market aside. Hug the kid(s) a little longer than you usually do, call a friend you haven't spoken to in years. Heck, sit down on the floor, or invite the pet up on the couch for some quality time. I'm convinced that pets know what you're thinking, without even talking to them.

Send a letter off to our men and women in the military! Link

I hope everyone has a safe weekend. Buckle up if you're driving and I'll see you Tuesday morning!

Jeff Bailey : 12/23/2005 7:23:14 PM

Today's 06:12 PM EST Temperatures and February Nat. Gas and Heating Oil settlements at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 12/23/2005 7:23:03 PM

Closing Internals found at this Link ... For equities ... "not a creature was stirring, not even a mouse." ... For treasuries, they got a BIG Santa Claus bid ... "With a little old driver, so lively and quick, I knew in a moment it must be St. Nick."

Jeff Bailey : 12/23/2005 7:22:51 PM

Closing U.S. Market Watch at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 12/23/2005 7:22:43 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 12/23/2005 7:22:04 PM

Day trader's techniques ... SHRP recap with Level II near the close at this Link

Shares of SHRP are relatively thinly traded and average roughly 395,000 per day. Today, shares turned 625,854.

Stock "gaps" from WEEKLY S2 at the open and finds a strong drive early. Interpretation from this tye of daily interval bar chart Link and this time of year, is that a longer-term short is racking up the cap-gains before 12/31/05. That's the scenario.

One of the FIRST mistakes I made (which I was alerted to by my supervisor when trading the firm's capital) was to NEVER show your hand.

At first, I didn't believe it. No way could my placing an order to close a trade at a higher/lower price than my long/short action point be revealing and actually work against me.

That is, until I continued to do it, and eventually learn how the game of trading was played.

For example ... Let's say YOU are a market maker, or a hedge fund trader in SHRP today and you're trying to cover part of a short position, or building a long position for your client, with orders to fill him/her on their order with a net of no more than $10.00 in the stock. The cheaper you can get it done the better, but get it done before the close. And before 02:00 PM EST, you see a little burst of buying and time and sales shows lots of 300, 500, 600, 1000 crossing the wire after the stock. Hint: A 1,000 share lot is MUCH MORE retail/day trader looking than is 300, 400, 600.

For instance, an institutional buyer may be a buyer of 5,000 shares. When taking the offer, the 300, 400, 600 is more indicative of three different retail orders from the sell side being filled.

First thought may be that you've got some competition. Hopefully not another institution.

So... stock starts moving higher. You've still got some buying to do (another 100,000 from a 300,000 share order). You get a little more aggressive too. You build your bid, take a few offers.

Now, I didn't get a screen capture of Level II as SHRP started to move higher, but there were VERY FEW offers on INET below $10.16.

As the stock starts moving more aggressively toward $10.00, YOU the market maker start seeing a "sudden" appearance of offers at $10.20 (300 shares), then another pops up on INET at $10.06 (500 shares), then another at $10.05 (1000 shares).

Hmmm.... are YOU going to keep "chasing" your competition and taking offers?

No! Why? Because traders that have been around for awhile know what a "retail" trader looks like. They don't know the tricks of the game.

Now think about COMPUTERS? Remember, all this NASDAQ stuff is ELECTRONIC. If YOU are a computer and your set to do some buying and YOU start measuring SELLERS showing up at a higher price, what are YOUR circuits going to do?

Do poker players that are bluffing show their cards to the competition? "I'll raise you $10,000.00, here's my 2, 3, 5, 7, 8.

Does a poker player holding a royal flush wear a BIG grin on his/her face when their competition has been willing to call each flop? "Be careful if you're going to raise me again. There's a 10, jack and queen of spades on the table, and here (show your cards) I've got the king and ace of spades right here."

Now ... I don't know that ANY of our MM traders showed their hands today. IF you did, it is no business of mine. My only thought here is to give some insight as to how the game of trading is played. I would be happy if you sold that relative high of $10.00. I'd be sad if you showed your hand with a sell order at $10.05 and didn't close out until $9.85. The eliment of SURPRISE is to the day trader's advantage. Use it. If YOUR target is $10.05, then that's great! Don't tell everyone that it is your target. I give targets and stops so trader's can assess risk/reward in the trade.

Here... look at this again ....

Screen capture #1 15:45-15:50 Link look at your INET and NASDAQ Level II. If YOU were a short at that time, are you eager to buy? Why or why not?

Now screen capture #2 15:55-to close Link

While #2 is near today's close, you can see how the offers/ask is now all compressed on INET from $9.85 to $9.88. I'll be willing to bet that at one point, $9.88 was the offer, $9.86 the bid. Then, a long seller, slips under $9.88 with 1000 shares at $9.87 as he/she doesn't want to risk not getting filled (like the odd lot of 40 at $9.89 did) and the process just goes on to the close.

IF there were an overly aggressive short coverer, or eager long, we could have well seen all those offers taken out with a peg close of $10.00. We didn't, and that's a bit telling.

One more trick of the trade, then I'm done.

I've discussed before how a NASDAQ trader can manipulate things, or INFLUENCE a trade.

A lot of day traders like you and I will monitor Level II and they'll watch the depth and size of INET and NASDAQ's market makers.

One "trick," which does carry some risk, but a way to sense how jittery/aggressive a short coverer is, or how jittery/aggressive a long liquidator is, is to mess around a bit. I did this very thing today with SHRP, and it did have seem to have what I thought a short, acting a little more eager.

Here, look at #2 level two again ... Link

Let's say it is mid-session at this point. And earlier in the morning, you saw BRUT down at $9.70 with size of 300 (that's 3,000 shares). At certain points during the day, BRUT went away for a second or two, then appeared at the bid of $9.84 for 100 (that's 1,000 shares) and at the same time you see 500 shares cross the wire at the offer of $9.85.

Hmmmm... maybe that's a short looking to cover.

Then BRUT eventually gets filled you see a trade of 1,000 shares hit the bid of $9.84.

BRUT goes away for a couple of seconds and positions again at $9.79 (just like the above link).

Is that a short? Is he/she aggressive?

One way to try and figure out is this ....

Stick a limit order to buy 2,000 shares (with no intention of getting filled) at $9.80. If you route through ARCX, it won't show as ARCX is a higher bid of $9.83, but you should see your order pop up on INET at $9.80.

Watch BRUT, or the MM ID you think is the short. Does your "bluff" bid influence BRUT? If BRUT goes away, then comes up to $9.80, or $9.81, you might be onto something.

Now, this technique can come with some risks (of actually getting filled) so you need to keep a close eye on things, but it is a way PROFESSIONAL TRADERS will use Level II to try and sniff out the other guy's position, or INFLUENCE the trade near-term.

I've gotten filled doing this before, when I didn't really intend to. I've also used the technique when long or short to really get a move going in my favor. Just remember.... if you show the bid, or offer and get filled, and didn't want to, you need to have a damage control plan in place.

SHORTS can use this very technique in stocks to influence trade. All is fair in love and war, and it isn't uncommon for a short to be on the offer, and stick a "big bid" at a lower level to influence some day traders to give him the eventual upticks. Once the short is about 1/2 or 3/4 full, he'll cancel his bid, and look for the rats to run and liquidate at the bid.

Bulls can play the same game when they're accumulating. Show the "big offer" to influence some selling at the bid. Better still is to suck in some shorts that think "I've got a big offer above me, so I'll short this wild stock, with the assurance I can cover at the higher offer that's showing size much larger than I'm shorting."

A short's eyes bug out when the "big offer" above suddenly isn't there as the wild stock starts moving against the bear.

Jeff Bailey : 12/23/2005 3:57:36 PM

SHRP 5-minute chart with NASDAQ/INET Level II at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 12/23/2005 3:53:48 PM

Bullish day trade exit alert ... SHRP T $9.85

Jeff Bailey : 12/23/2005 3:34:03 PM

It really looks to me like a short wants to close some positions in SHRP today. He/she was on the run to $10.00, but suddenly, at nothing other than the psychological $10.00 a bunch of offers started to show up in increments of 200, 500, 300 as if some retail day traders were showing their hands.

Might get a shot at closing out at $9.99 now, as I think the short will print a Net $10.00 at the close and be done for the week.

He/she's patient as he might think day trade bulls will want to end flat.

Jeff Bailey : 12/23/2005 3:20:04 PM

03:00 Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 12/23/2005 3:04:32 PM

03:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 12/23/2005 2:58:00 PM

BioCryst (BCRX) $17.66 +0.39% ... makes a late move higher.

Jeff Bailey : 12/23/2005 2:49:07 PM

S&P Retail (RLX) 464.98 +0.81% ... edges to session high.

Jeff Bailey : 12/23/2005 2:16:53 PM

02:00 Internals found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 12/23/2005 2:13:33 PM

Chart of QQQQ at this Link with the short cycle going nowhere as price returns to the bottom of the range. Stop stays in place at 41.53.

Jonathan Levinson : 12/23/2005 2:12:15 PM

My dad is on his way to pick me up, as we have family arriving from out of town. All my best wishes for a safe and happy holiday.

Jonathan Levinson : 12/23/2005 2:03:18 PM

Volume breadth +1.35:1 on the NYSE, 1.4:1 on the Nasdaq here.

Jeff Bailey : 12/23/2005 2:02:55 PM

02:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 12/23/2005 1:59:01 PM

CBOE Oil Index (OIX.X) 533.09 +0.13% ... gets green.

Jeff Bailey : 12/23/2005 1:56:39 PM

Day trade bullish entry alert ... for Sharper Image (SHRP) $9.85

Jeff Bailey : 12/23/2005 1:54:20 PM

Bullish day trade long alert ... shares of Sharper Image (SHRP) $9.84 +5.80% should it trade $9.85. Stop $9.80, then target a close back at session high of $10.22.

Jonathan Levinson : 12/23/2005 1:49:58 PM

QQQQ's 30 min cycle is halfway through its downphase, and the 600 min stochastic on the 60 min chart has printed a preliminary sell signal just below overbought territory, the Macd close to confirming. In this light volume, that might not mean much. So far, on a daily and longer intraday chart, we have a lower high for this 60 min cycle upphase below resistance at last week's highs. Leaving aside seasonal forces, that leaves me feeling more bearish than bullish here- but as Jeff points out, we cannot leave out seasonal forces. I'm leaving the stop at breakeven based on the bearish factors listed above, but I won't widen it higher either. Traders who don't want to hold over the long weekend can exit the short now for a 13 cent profit. QQQQ chart updated at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 12/23/2005 1:40:47 PM

I'm looking for a bullish trade that could get painted higher to the close.

Most of the "big guns" have left, with instructions for their assistant traders to "just don't mess anything up."

Markets tend to take on a more bullish bias into the 3-day weekend.

Jonathan Levinson : 12/23/2005 1:37:39 PM

Third that, Jeff and Mark.

Mark Davis : 12/23/2005 1:36:41 PM

Thanks Jeff, and back at you...

Jeff Bailey : 12/23/2005 1:43:14 PM

Just a reminder that markets will be closed on Monday in observance of Chanukah.

For those that are taking off for lunch and not returning until Tuesday ... Happy Holidays!

For those that are taking off and not returning until after January 1, Happy New Year!

Jonathan Levinson : 12/23/2005 1:23:06 PM

Volume breadth +1.35:1 on the NYSE, +1.4:1 on the Nasdaq. QQQQ's short cycle and wavelet cycle are opposed and chopped up by the sideways range. Volume has slowed to a crawl. The 60 min channel has not yet turned down, suggesting that the sideways range would be the "weightless" period as this broader channel crests at the top of its upphase- that's my best guess here. Link

Jeff Bailey : 12/23/2005 1:18:33 PM

Energy commodities at the NYMEX closed early today at 01:00 PM EST. Waiting for official settlement prices. Link

Jeff Bailey : 12/23/2005 1:16:32 PM

Apache (APA) $70.46 -0.96% ... retraces 80.9% of this morning's decline.

Jeff Bailey : 12/23/2005 1:15:33 PM

01:00 Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 12/23/2005 1:03:27 PM

01:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 12/23/2005 12:59:39 PM

Today's bond market reaction to the new home sales figures certainly depicts the wonderment of what may be going through the Fed's mind (see last night's MBA/DJUSHB comments.

No al_rts so far today from Fed Funds futures though.

Jonathan Levinson : 12/23/2005 12:56:12 PM

A wavelet upphase is peaking here, QQQQ holding below the 72 SMA and pivot, grinding away within a 10 cent range. At 27.8M shares so far, usually what we'd see with the first hour of normal trading, there's very little interest in either direction. Volume breadth remains positive 1.4:1. Link

Jeff Bailey : 12/23/2005 12:58:11 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles found at this Link

Activity Update ... I've closed out the Toll Brothers TOL Jan $40 Calls (TOL-AH) at the bid of $0.15 ($-0.95, or -86.36%)

I closed out the remaining Apache APA Feb. $70 Calls (APA-BN) at the bid of $3.40 ($-0.20, or -5.56%).

Tab Gilles : 12/23/2005 12:57:50 PM

XLE- SPDR Select Sector Energy ETF- weekly One of the strongest sectors this year has been energy, XLE. Money managers are now taking some profits as the year closes out. With T. Boone Pickens, who called for $70 oil earlier in the year is now on record as for oil going to $50 by mid-'06. However he did state that depending on how cold this winter is, it will cause spikes nearterm. I'm watching $55 oil for support. Link

Taking off early today...just want to wish everyone the best over the holidays.

Merry Christmas and, Happy Hanukkah and Happy Kwanzaa! -Tab

Jonathan Levinson : 12/23/2005 12:39:28 PM

Session high for ten year notes here, TNX -5.1 bps at 4.382% and losing 4.4%, flatter against the IRX, -.7 bps at 3.895%.

Jeff Bailey : 12/23/2005 12:22:46 PM

Bullish call exit fill alert on the Apache Corp. APA Feb $70 Calls (APA-BN) at $3.40.

APA $69.91 -1.74% ....

Jeff Bailey : 12/23/2005 12:21:13 PM

12:00 Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 12/23/2005 12:08:57 PM

Swing trade bullish call place order alert ... Place an order to sell long the Apache Corp. APA Feb. $70 Calls (APA-BN) at $3.40.

Jeff Bailey : 12/23/2005 12:58:39 PM

12:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 12/23/2005 12:58:53 PM

The short cycle upphase just lost about 9 cents' worth of lustre on the Qs, as the wavelet rolls over from a bearish divergent high: Link

Jeff Bailey : 12/23/2005 12:03:29 PM

APA $69.85 -1.82% ... 50% dynamic here.

APA-BN are $3.30 x $3.50

Jeff Bailey : 12/23/2005 12:01:22 PM

Apache Corp. (APA) $69.76 -1.95% ... Here's a snapshot for today on the Feb. $70 Calls and what they should be worth if the stock trades $70.00. These options currently bid/offer $3.20 x $3.40.

Link

Outside of using a "dynamic" retracement, DAILY S2 is $70.26, Si is $70.68.

WEEKLY Pivot is $71.01 and W S1 down at $67.97.

Nat. Gas futures certainly depict momentum is gone. And if past Crude Oil trade is any indication of the future, nat gas momentum gone for a couple of weeks. Depending on the weather.

Jonathan Levinson : 12/23/2005 11:52:24 AM

QQQQ is back above the 72 SMA and the pivot, the short cycle indicators turning back up. 30 min channel resistance is down to 41.53, and so far the bounce is corrective. I'm leaving the stop on the short at breakeven, 10 cents above the current print. Link

Jonathan Levinson : 12/23/2005 11:49:11 AM

Volume breadth +1.1:1 on the NYSE, +1.3:1 on the Nasdaq.

Jeff Bailey : 12/23/2005 12:59:08 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 12/23/2005 11:17:50 AM

11:00 Internals found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 12/23/2005 11:15:56 AM

The wavelet cycle has turned up for QQQQ, but the short cycle is so far keeping a lid on it. The broken descending trendline off last week's high is support at 41.28, but because of the rollover in the 30/60 min cycles, my thought is that bulls will have trouble defending it, particularly if the wavelet bounce is weak here. Link

Jeff Bailey : 12/23/2005 11:04:09 AM

11:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 12/23/2005 10:58:13 AM

Bullish call exit alert selling long the Toll Brothers TOL Jan $40 Calls (TOL-AH) at the bid of $0.15

Jeff Bailey : 12/23/2005 10:55:53 AM

Toll Brother (TOL) $35.41 -0.78% ... the TOL Jan $40 Calls (TOL-AH) $0.15 x $0.20.

Jonathan Levinson : 12/23/2005 10:52:22 AM

Ten year notes have reversed high, and the yield curve has flattened further- TNX is now down 3 bps to 4.403%, testing key support at 4.4%, and IRX is up .5 bps to 3.907%. Gold is higher by 1.3 at 506.50.

Jeff Bailey : 12/23/2005 10:51:12 AM

Apache Corp. (APA) $69.22 -2.71% .... I've got session high/low of $70.81 to $68.89.

Intra-day dynamic would have 50% at $69.85. This would be an exit point for an intra-day bounce.

Jonathan Levinson : 12/23/2005 10:49:32 AM

QQQQ lost the 72 SMA support line at 41.36 just after I entered the last post. Volume breadth has fallen to +1.2:1 on the Nasdaq, well off the highs but still positive. The short cycle downphase has been strong enough to cause the wavelet to trend, and below 41.36, it's looking good for the short.

QQQQ - Stop Loss Adjustment Alert -

QQQQ short from 41.53, move stop to breakeven

Jonathan Levinson : 12/23/2005 10:38:09 AM

Still stuck here with a visitor in my office. QQQQ chart at this Link . The stop on the short can stay at 41.64 for now, and while I'm eager to lower it to break even, I don't want to miss a broader 30/60 min cycle downphase on the short cycle noise in the event of another retest from here. I think we've seen the high for this 30/60 min cycle run, but I'm leaving the stop wide just in case.

Jeff Bailey : 12/23/2005 10:36:54 AM

Bullish swing trade call stop adjustment ... Let's adjust the stop on the APA Feb. $70 Calls (APA-BN) to $2.60 at this time.

Jeff Bailey : 12/23/2005 10:35:39 AM

Apache (APA) $69.07 -2.92% ...

APA Feb. $70 Calls (APA-BN) $2.95 x $3.10.

Bulls were gapped lower so no chance to get stopped at $3.60.

Jeff Bailey : 12/23/2005 10:28:24 AM

Feb Nat. Gas (ng06g) $12.37 -3.35% ... Here's chart outlining head/shoulder top. Neckline broken yesterday, downside risk to $11.13. T. Boone Pickens said earlier this week that he though Nat. Gas was vulnerable to $11.00. I think he may be onto something. Chart Link

Jeff Bailey : 12/23/2005 10:10:33 AM

Matrix (MTRX) $9.17 -0.21% ...

Jeff Bailey : 12/23/2005 10:09:48 AM

Apache (APA) $69.12 -2.85% ...

Jeff Bailey : 12/23/2005 10:09:17 AM

Either I slept through my alarm, or it didn't go off. I'll get my mind clear in a minute.

Jonathan Levinson : 12/23/2005 10:08:36 AM

A visitor to my office. Stepping away for a few minutes.

Jeff Bailey : 12/23/2005 10:06:56 AM

10:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 12/23/2005 10:01:33 AM

Headlines:

U.S. NOV. NEW HOME SALES DOWN 11.3% TO 1.25 MLN UNITS

U.S. NOV. NEW HOME SALES WELL BELOW 1.31 MLN FORECAST

U.S. NOV. NEW HOME INVENTORY UP 3.3% TO RECORD 503,000

U.S. NOV. NEW HOME 4.9 MONTH SUPPLY, HIGHEST SINCE '96

U.S. NOV. NEW HOME SALES PRICE UP 0.3% Y-0-Y TO $225K

Jonathan Levinson : 12/23/2005 9:58:47 AM

Volume breadth is +1.5:1 on the NYSE, +2.9:1 on the Nasdaq.

Jonathan Levinson : 12/23/2005 9:56:50 AM

A huge 11.5B 5-day repo from the Fed to refund 7B expiring, for a net 4.5B add. The stop out rate is was 4.23%, holding 2 bps below the overnight target rate. The markets made new highs on the announcement.

Jonathan Levinson : 12/23/2005 9:55:35 AM

Big bearish wavelet divergence here as the short cycle oscillators gather in overbought- but in the meantime, price shows no weakness at the highs. The stop stays at 41.64. Link

Jonathan Levinson : 12/23/2005 9:48:33 AM

Michigan Sentiment 91.5 vs. 89 est.

Jonathan Levinson : 12/23/2005 9:45:36 AM

Michigan Sentiment delayed.

Jonathan Levinson : 12/23/2005 9:39:52 AM

Awaiting Michigan Sentiment at 9:45AM, followed by the Fed's repo announcement and New Home Sales at 10.

Jonathan Levinson : 12/23/2005 9:39:18 AM

Ten year notes have reversed their gains, TNX up to a 1.3 bp gain at 4.446%, steepening against the 13-week rate, +.5 bps at 3.907%.

Jonathan Levinson : 12/23/2005 9:34:08 AM

Here's the QQQQ chart: Link

Jonathan Levinson : 12/23/2005 9:33:09 AM

Price fell away as I was entering the post- lower the entry price to 41.53. Entry is based on the divergent move above the channel tops and the toppy 30 min cycle. The stop is high enough that if it gets hit, we'll know it's in a 30 min cycle upside trending move.

Jonathan Levinson : 12/23/2005 9:31:49 AM

QQQQ - Entry Point Alert -

Short QQQQ at 41.55 stop 41.64

Jonathan Levinson : 12/23/2005 9:30:07 AM

Volume breadth is +1.9:1 on the NYSE, +2.6:1 on the Nasdaq at the open.

Jonathan Levinson : 12/23/2005 9:29:45 AM

QQQQ's 30 min channel top is 41.47, 60 min channel top 41.40. 72 SMA support is at 41.27, 30 min channel support 41.32 and 60 min channel support at 41.15.

Jonathan Levinson : 12/23/2005 9:04:19 AM

QQQQ's 30 min cycle topped yesterday just before the close, and has been trending sideways since then, actually showing a small bearish divergence against the price which holds at the highs. The 60 min cycle is still climbing, just now reaching overbought territory. All this occurs within the daily cycle, which stalled its downphase yesterday and shows a bullish kiss. However, the downphase had more room to run and there's no uptick showing yet- just a stall in the oscillators. If the bulls can pull off a 3rd consecutive higher high and higher low, I'll expect to see the first buy signal print in this longer timeframe. Meanwhile, intraday, I'm guessing that we'll see a sideways range as the 60 min cycle upphase completes. Any real show of strength this morning would indicate a strong upside trending move, but with yesterday's light volume, I'm not expecting it. I'll post the intraday channel and SMA levels when they update at the opening bell.

Jonathan Levinson : 12/23/2005 8:34:14 AM

Durable Orders prior month was revised down from 3.4% to 3.0%.

Jonathan Levinson : 12/23/2005 8:33:41 AM

Headlines:

EURO AT $1.1849 AFTER U.S. DATA VS. $1.1842 BEFORE

DOLLAR PARES GAIN ON U.S. FACTORY REPORT DETAILS

Jonathan Levinson : 12/23/2005 8:33:05 AM

Equities dipped and then rebounded as the data was released, back to exactly where they started before the report. Ten year note yields are down 1 bp to 4.423%, flatter now against the 13-week rate which is holding at 3.9%.

Jonathan Levinson : 12/23/2005 8:31:45 AM

Headlines:

U.S. NOV. DURABLE-GOODS ORDERS UP 4.4% VS RISE 1.5% FORECAST

U.S. NOV. DURABLE-GOODS RISE LARGEST SINCE MAY

U.S. NOV. DURABLE-GOODS SHIPMENTS FALL 0.2%

U.S. NOV. DURABLE-GOODS INVENTORIES UP 0.5%

U.S. OCT. DURABLE ORDERS REVISED TO RISE 3.0% VS 3.7% PREV

Jonathan Levinson : 12/23/2005 8:29:49 AM

Durable odors delayed...

Jonathan Levinson : 12/23/2005 8:25:16 AM

Ten year notes hold a light loss, TNX up .5 bps at 4.438%. IRX is down .2 bps to 3.9% awaiting the Durable Orders report in 3 minutes.

Jonathan Levinson : 12/23/2005 7:49:30 AM

Equities are mixed, with ES trading 1276, NQ 1700, YM 10941 and QQQQ +.04 to 41.44. Gold is up a dime to 505.30, silver is down .037 to 8.995, ten year notes are down 1/16 to a session low of 108 3/32, crude oil is down .375 to 57.90 and natgas is down .475 to 12.45.

We await the 8:30 release of Durable Orders, est. 1.1%, then at 9:45, Michigan Sentiment est. 89, and at 10AM, New Home Sales, est. 1.3M.

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