Option Investor
Printer friendly version
Jeff Bailey : 12/28/2005 12:30:40 AM

Oil Service Bullish % (BPOILS) from Dorsey/Wright & Assoc. reverses back lower to "bull correction" at 58.68% bullish.

Jeff Bailey : 12/28/2005 12:19:54 AM

Program Trading Levels for Wednesday ... HL Camp & Company has their computers set for program buying at $+8.18 and set for program selling at $+6.24.

OI Technical Staff : 12/27/2005 9:59:39 PM

The Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

Disclaimer: Stocks discussed in the Market Monitor are for educational purposes only and any analysis is not meant to imply a recommendation for or against that stock. The analysts in this forum as on any other website are prohibited by the SEC from giving any specific advice to ANY individual trader. All information posted is for ALL readers and is not meant to be directed to any individual. Our analysts cannot answer any email questions regarding any specific stock. Please do not ask and please do not take offense if requests are denied.

Results posted in the Market Monitor are hypothetical and OIN does not claim that any reader achieved these exact results. Due to the lag time between research, writing, posting, uploading, reading and execution there will be differences between the actual signal given and the fill achieved by the reader. Fills may be better or worse but in most cases they will be different. The writers will make every effort to give advance notice of intended signals and indicate potential price targets. Your individual results may vary depending on your activity level and aggressiveness. This forum is intended as an education service only. Trading involves risk and should not be attempted by anyone not ready to accept this risk. By acting on any signal in this forum you agree and personally accept this risk.

Jeff Bailey : 12/27/2005 8:50:59 PM

India ... India's Bombay Stock Exchange ($BSE) 9,283.16 Link and National Stock Exchange will hold a special pre-opening trading session of shares in Reliance Industries Ltd. (500325.BY) Jan. 18 to enable price discovery, following the spin-off of its power, telecom and financial services businesses.

The special one-hour trading session will have the single purpose of determining the opening level of the market indices which will continue to include RIL, according to a notice issued by the national exchange.

The one hour session, from 0800 to 0900 hours Indian Standard Time (0230-0330 GMT), will be solely for Reliance shares and there will be no circuit filter during this trade, the notice added.

The volume weighted average price of Reliance Industries during the session will be used to adjust the base market capitalization of the indices on the two bourses.

Reliance alone accounts for 11.4% of the Bombay 30-stock Sensitive Index, or Sensex, and 9.04% of the 50-stock S&P CNX Nifty.

The special trading session is necessary because the four companies formed by the spin-offs from Reliance are currently not listed or traded. That makes it impossible for the exchanges to value the traded shares in the remaining part of Reliance, the notice added.

Normal market trade will resume at 0955 hours (IST) on both exchanges.

There will be no calculation of the index during the special trading period. Reliance shares traded during the session will be settled along with the normal market trade for Jan. 18.

Reliance Industries spinoff plan became effective Dec. 21 following Dec. 9 court order allowing the spinoff of its stakes in Reliance Energy Ltd. (500390.BY), Reliance Capital Ltd. (500111.BY) and unlisted Reliance Infocomm Ltd. to companies owned by Anil Ambani.

The court approval cleared the way for dividing the Reliance group's assets between Reliance Industries chairman Mukesh Ambani and his younger brother Anil Ambani, under an agreement reached by the brothers earlier this financial year.

Jeff Bailey : 12/27/2005 6:59:00 PM

Japan ... METI now forecasting December industrial output +4.7 on month.

Forecasting January industrial output -2.0% on month.

Jeff Bailey : 12/27/2005 6:56:11 PM

Japan ... November industrial output +1.4% for month. Consensus +1.9%.

November inventory-shipments ratio +2.0% on month.

November shipments +0.3%; inventories +1.5%.

Jeff Bailey : 12/27/2005 6:34:47 PM

1 Month to 20 Year Daily Treasury Yield Curve Rates Link

Jeff Bailey : 12/27/2005 5:35:07 PM

Today's Top Headline ... Stocks give back early gains as 2 to 10-year yield curve draws even.

Bloomberg - Link

Audio and interview with Pimco's Bill Gross also available at above link.

Jeff Bailey : 12/27/2005 5:20:41 PM

Closing U.S. Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 12/27/2005 5:20:35 PM

Continuous Nat. Gas ($NATGAS) on $0.20-box size at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 12/27/2005 5:20:26 PM

Feb. Nat. Gas (ng06g) alert $11.13 -0.77% ... achieves my head/shoulder top bearish vertical count of $11.13 in early electronic trade.

Backfills its 08/26 to 08/29 floor trade gap ($11.09-$11.50)

Jeff Bailey : 12/27/2005 5:00:58 PM

Closing Internals found at this Link ... Note: It would currently take a 52% reading for the shorter-term NYSE 5-day NH/NL ratio to reverse up. It would currently take a 56% reading for the NASDAQ's 5-day NH/NL ratio to reverse up.

Jeff Bailey : 12/27/2005 4:53:01 PM

Venezuela ... Seeks early official sector debt payoff.

Government plans benchmark bond issue to develop yield curve.

Jeff Bailey : 12/27/2005 4:23:48 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 12/27/2005 4:12:26 PM

Bullish swing trade call option establish stop alert on the Pfizer PFE Jan $25 Calls (PFE-AE) at $0.10.

Pfizer (PFE) $23.63 -1.37% ...

Jane Fox : 12/27/2005 4:11:14 PM

I expected bearishness this week but not too much for I thought the real bearishness would start in the New Year. This was a scary day for the bulls.

Jeff Bailey : 12/27/2005 4:10:24 PM

ym06h 10,825

Jeff Bailey : 12/27/2005 4:09:30 PM

Sell Program Premium ... DIA $107.68, SPY $125.40

Jeff Bailey : 12/27/2005 4:08:55 PM

Dow Diamonds (DIA) $107.70 -0.96% .... 04:00 tick was $107.75

Jeff Bailey : 12/27/2005 4:04:06 PM

NASDAQ announces mid-December short interest ... Open short-interest positions in NASDAQ Stocks at 5.73M vs. 5.76M in November.

Jane Fox : 12/27/2005 4:03:01 PM

NYA has given the first sell signal since October. Link

Jeff Bailey : 12/27/2005 4:01:39 PM

Today's Temperatures with February Nat. Gas and Heating Oil settlements at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 12/27/2005 3:52:55 PM

Hewlett Packard (HPQ) $28.765 -0.06% Link ... Holds near its bullish vertical count, which was met in September. Currently up 36.32% on a year-over-year basis and looks to take this year's top spot among Dow Industrials percentage gainers.

Jeff Bailey : 12/27/2005 3:50:06 PM

General Motors (GM) $18.97 +0.79% Link ... bucks the intra-day trend, but down 52.10% year-over-year.

Jeff Bailey : 12/27/2005 3:49:33 PM

Dow Diamonds (DIA) $107.76 -0.91% Link ... unchanged over past 52-weeks.

Jeff Bailey : 12/27/2005 3:13:01 PM

03:00 Internals found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 12/27/2005 3:12:07 PM

Stepping away for the rest of the day.

Jeff Bailey : 12/27/2005 3:04:40 PM

03:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 12/27/2005 3:01:41 PM

There's still more potential upside in this choppy short cycle upphase, and the churning at the lows has yielded a potential reverse h&s pattern below at 41.18-.20 neckline. But the short cycle has been corrective so far. If the bulls don't pick up the ball and crack that resistance line soon, the next downphase will be very likely to take out today's lows and target last week's lows. So far today, we have a higher high reversed to a lower low, for a bearish engulfing/key reversal. Bulls need a close above 41.29 to invalidate that bearish daily candle. Link Daily chart at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 12/27/2005 2:55:04 PM

Dow Diamonds (DIA) $107.87 -0.80% ... after breaking below WEEKLY S1, did stick its head back above WEEKLY S1, but sellers were firm at $108.05.

Breadth negative at 27:3 ... IBM $83.11 -0.44%, MMM $77.46 -1.41%, MO $75.24 -1.07%, BA $71.07 -0.58%, AIG $67.93 -0.24%

Jonathan Levinson : 12/27/2005 2:55:03 PM

Volume breadth -3.3:1 on the NYSE, -2.5:1 on the Nasdaq.

Jeff Bailey : 12/27/2005 2:52:04 PM

US Dollar Index (dx00y) 91.12 +0.30% (30-min delayed) ... edges above Friday's high.

Jonathan Levinson : 12/27/2005 2:51:01 PM

Session high for ten year notes at 109 27/32, TNX down 3.9 bps to 4.341%.

Jonathan Levinson : 12/27/2005 2:47:14 PM

Another failure at the descending 72 SMA for QQQQ, but unless they lose 41.10, the next try could be the one that succeeds. Link

Jonathan Levinson : 12/27/2005 2:31:26 PM

QQQQ tests 72 SMA resistance here at 41.17: Link

Jonathan Levinson : 12/27/2005 2:22:08 PM

On the daily chart, ten year note yields (TNX) are approaching rising support connecting the lows off the June bottom, currently down 2.6 bps at 4.354%. The oscillators suggest that that line at 4.36% should hold if tested: Link

Jonathan Levinson : 12/27/2005 2:11:27 PM

QQQQ's daily chart is trying to find support above last week's lows, at what appeared last week to be the neckline of a complex top, akin to a head and shoulders. That level is key support below 41.00, particularly because the daily cycle is trying to bottom at a higher pirce low. Treating this as a head and shoulder top, a breakdown would imply a move to the mid 39.50 area, also the bottom of the broader Keltner35 channel: Link

Jeff Bailey : 12/27/2005 2:11:19 PM

02:00 Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 12/27/2005 2:01:42 PM

02:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 12/27/2005 1:55:53 PM

It's either a very weak, extremely bearish short cycle upphase, or a very steep, bullish divergence. The short cycle is only starting to downtick now. Price-wise, bulls need to see north of 41.20 to have a shot at regaining the broken bear flag support line. The bears have the ball below that level: Link

Jane Fox : 12/27/2005 1:52:55 PM

Both AD line and AD volume are now making new daily lows.

Jeff Bailey : 12/27/2005 1:52:36 PM

Sell Program Premium ... DIA $107.78, SPX 1,257.20, QQQQ $41.03

Jane Fox : 12/27/2005 1:45:38 PM

TICKs range today has been from +691 to -946.

Jonathan Levinson : 12/27/2005 1:44:31 PM

For those who may have missed it, Keene had a good discussion of the yield curve and touched on some of its implications in the weekend Market Wrap.

Jeff Bailey : 12/27/2005 1:40:56 PM

China's Govt. updates 2006 GDP forecast ... DJ - China's gross domestic product will likely grow 8.5% to 9.0% next year and the consumer price index should rise 2% to 3% if Beijing implements easy fiscal and monetary policies, the top state planning agency's research institute says.

Jonathan Levinson : 12/27/2005 1:39:05 PM

Volume breadth -3.3:1 on the NYSE, -2.6:1 on the Nasdaq.

Jeff Bailey : 12/27/2005 1:38:45 PM

Goldman Sachs (GS) $128.06 -0.03% ... stock traded as high as $129.40 earlier this morning after China's State Council approved in principle a consortium led by Goldman Sachs Group to invest $3.7 billion for a stake in Industrial & Commercial Bank of China, one of China's largest commercial state banks, sources familiar with the situation said late Friday.

Jonathan Levinson : 12/27/2005 1:36:15 PM

Lower lows printing now, not yet stalling the ongoing the short cycle upphase. 30 min channel support is down at QQQQ 40.95: Link

Jeff Bailey : 12/27/2005 1:27:29 PM

13-week Treasury Note Yield ($IRX.X) down 0.8 bp at 3.887%.

Jeff Bailey : 12/27/2005 1:25:44 PM

Dow Diamonds (DIA) $107.92 -0.76% ... session low and WEEKLY S1 here. While light volume session, sharp intra-day reversal underway from morning's high of $109.25.

Jonathan Levinson : 12/27/2005 1:24:20 PM

Session lows across the board.

Jeff Bailey : 12/27/2005 1:22:36 PM

Treasury 3-month bill auction results ... Awarded $17.0 billion at 3.905%; 15.22% at high

Bbid-to-cover 2.18

$1.68 billion in noncomps

Jonathan Levinson : 12/27/2005 1:15:18 PM

A higher wavelet low just now confirms QQQQ's short cycle upphase in progress. Price remains soft, but the short cycle indicators have plenty of room to run. So far however, it's been a very unimpressive hour. Link

Jeff Bailey : 12/27/2005 1:10:24 PM

01:00 Internals found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 12/27/2005 1:04:18 PM

The 32B T-bill auction refunds 30.877B maturing, raising net new cash (draining) of 1.123B. Foreign central banks purchased 9.8B of the 32B total, a solid showing. The 13-week bills sold for a high-rate of 3.905% yielding 3.999%, bid to cover 2.18. The 26 week bills sold for a high-rate of 4.2% yielding 4.351%, bid to cover 1.99.

Jeff Bailey : 12/27/2005 1:03:05 PM

01:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 12/27/2005 1:00:46 PM

Awaiting the 13- and 26-week bill auction results.

Jeff Bailey : 12/27/2005 1:00:37 PM

Treasury ... To sell $20.0 billion of 2-year notes on Thursday. Balance of proceeds will be used to redeem $26.0 billion in maturing notes.

The sale amount is unchanged from $20.0 billion sold at last month's two-year auction.

Jonathan Levinson : 12/27/2005 12:43:35 PM

Volume breadth improves slightly to -1.94:1 on the NYSE, -1.6:1 on the Nasdaq, but the bounce is weak and uninspiring so far. The wavelet cycle has turned the oversold short cycle indicators up, but so far the price action has been sideways for the past 10 minutes.

Jonathan Levinson : 12/27/2005 12:40:27 PM

New session low for natgas here at 10.99, -1.295 or 10.94%.

Jonathan Levinson : 12/27/2005 12:26:48 PM

QQQQ tries to bounce again. A short cycle upphase is due, and if the current 41.06 low holds, that will be the next move. Bulls need to see decent price traction, and a break back above the broken trendlines. If it's sideways or weak, then we can expect a retest of the 40.75-.80 low from last week. Link

Jeff Bailey : 12/27/2005 12:24:36 PM

Chicago Fed November Midwest Mfg. Index down 0.6% from October.

Seasonally adjusted reading of 112.1 compared to upwardly revised increase of 2.3% previous month.

Auto production down 3.0% in November afer rising 4.7% in October

Jane Fox : 12/27/2005 12:13:45 PM

TICKS -800

Jeff Bailey : 12/27/2005 12:12:23 PM

12:00 Internals found at this Link

Jane Fox : 12/27/2005 12:12:07 PM

These two are talking to you loud and clear. Link

Jonathan Levinson : 12/27/2005 12:07:17 PM

Volume breadth is down to -2.1:1 on the NYSE, -1.9:1 on the Nasdaq.

Jeff Bailey : 12/27/2005 12:02:58 PM

12:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 12/27/2005 12:01:31 PM

On the 15 min chart, we see the Qs now below rising flag support and back below the descending trendline off the year highs. The short cycle (3 min basis) is maxxed out to the downside, but it should begin trending below the longer intraday cycles. Here's the 15 min view: Link

Jeff Bailey : 12/27/2005 11:55:06 AM

10-most Active ... SIRI $7.04 +3.07%, QQQQ $41.18 -0.50%, SPY $126.26 -0.41%, MSFT $26.62 -0.07%, LU $2.73 -0.72%, SUNW $4.38 +0.45%, CSCO $17.35 (unch), AMEX:XLE $49.74 -2.94%, INTC $25.66 -1.15%, AAPL $74.57 +1.66%

Jonathan Levinson : 12/27/2005 11:50:46 AM

QQQQ fails again to regain rising linear support at 41.25. This will become an oversold trending move for the short cycle if it doesn't bounce soon: Link

Jeff Bailey : 12/27/2005 11:46:10 AM

Guidant (GDT) $65.01 -2.94% Link ... In addition to FDA warning letter (see 11:20:18 post), the company said Q4 results will be well below Wall Street expectations as it continues its struggle to regain consumer confidence after months of warnings about rare malfunctions in its cardiac electrical devices.

The medical device maker now predicting Q4 EPS of $0.17 to $0.23 (consensus $0.49) on sales of $790-$820 million (consensus $928.4 million).

Jonathan Levinson : 12/27/2005 11:43:10 AM

Price is holding rising support off Last Tuesday's low, actually trading just south of it. If the Qs are going to bounce, they need to do so quickly. A break of these lows would make the past week's rise into a bear flag. 10 min chart at this Link

Jane Fox : 12/27/2005 11:37:06 AM

All markets except YM have now broken previous day lows.

Jeff Bailey : 12/27/2005 11:34:39 AM

Sell Program Premium ... DIA $108.66, SPX 1,264.35, QQQQ $41.18

Jane Fox : 12/27/2005 11:34:28 AM

TICKs -800

Jonathan Levinson : 12/27/2005 11:34:33 AM

Session lows across the board. Volume is picking up but remains way light at 20M QQQQs so far. Bonds are strengthening only slightly, and it's strange to see this weakness on a day when so much of the Fed's money is in play. Link

Jonathan Levinson : 12/27/2005 11:26:40 AM

Steep drop here as the 30 min channel bottom gets breached on QQQQ. A beautiful stop runner overnight has now whipsawed b ack down. Yesterday's low os 3 cents away: Link Next support is at 41.15-.20.

Jonathan Levinson : 12/27/2005 11:21:18 AM

Volume breadth declines to +1.05:1 on the NYSE, +1.45:1 on the Nasdaq.

Jeff Bailey : 12/27/2005 11:20:18 AM

Guidant (GDT) $65.03 -2.91% Link ... Stock lower after receiving FDA warning letter about unresolved problems at the medical device maker's St. Paul, Minn., facility.

Guidant said the letter notes several remaining manufacturing or quality-control deficiencies. The inspection was completed September 1, 2005.

When such deficiencies are identified, the FDA issues a Form 483 to a company. If the issues are not resolved, the company may receive an FDA warning letter or regulatory action.

Guidant said in a statement it will respond promptly to the FDA warning letter, and "believes that it can fully address the concerns of the FDA without a material impact to its business."

Since June, Guidant has recalled or issued warnings about 88,000 heart defibrillators and almost 200,000 pacemakers because of reported malfunctions. The company is under investigation by federal and state officials and faces dozens of lawsuits over its recalls.

Boston Scientific Corp. (BSX) $25.21 -2.43% Link recently offered $25 billion, or about $72 per share, for Guidant this month after Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) $60.92 -0.31% Link lowered its bid to $21.5 billion in the wake of the recalls, which began after a December 2004 takeover deal was announced.

Keene Little : 12/27/2005 11:16:23 AM

Jonathan, don't worry about that yield curve inversion. The Fed has been out in force lately telling us it doesn't mean anything this time. And I believe everything they tell me.

Jonathan Levinson : 12/27/2005 11:11:38 AM



Jeff Bailey : 12/27/2005 11:10:28 AM

11:00 Internals found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 12/27/2005 11:06:48 AM

Just released by the Treasury:

The Treasury will auction 4-week Treasury bills totaling $10,000 million to refund an estimated $20,000 million of publicly held 4-week Treasury bills maturing December 29, 2005, and to pay down approximately $10,000 million.

The Treasury will auction $20,000 million of 2-year notes to refund $26,009 million of publicly held notes maturing December 31, 2005, and to pay down approximately $6,009 million.

The Treasury will auction approximately $12,000 million of 14-day Treasury cash management bills to be issued January 3, 2006.

This looks like a net paydown of 4B, which adds further to liquidity today. Looks like 11.5B added by the Fed and another 4B added by the Treasury. While bonds have firmed slightly, they remain mixed- TNX down .6 bps and flatter against the IRX, up 1 bp at 3.905%. I would have thought that Treasuries would be rallying on these announcements.

Jeff Bailey : 12/27/2005 11:02:33 AM

11:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 12/27/2005 11:00:37 AM

Session lows across the board now, with the Qs testing the 72 SMA support line for the first time today. Below that level, price will break back into Friday afternoon's range, targeting the 41.29 low: Link

Jeff Bailey : 12/27/2005 10:56:15 AM

MasterCard Holiday Sales ... MasterCard saying U.S. unadjusted holiday sales were up 8.7% vs. 2004. Up 5.2% if adjusted for longer season (one extra shopping day).

Jonathan Levinson : 12/27/2005 10:56:13 AM

Session lows for QQQQ and NQ here. Link

Jonathan Levinson : 12/27/2005 10:52:07 AM

So far, QQQQ has traded 13M shares' volume today, usually what we'd see after the first 15 minutes' trading. Breadth remains strong for the Nasdaq, but participation is very low today.

Jeff Bailey : 12/27/2005 10:45:49 AM

Ukrainian troops have left Iraq ... Ukrain's government saying "The (last) column comprised of eight armored personnel carriers and 44 soldiers" has arrived in Kuwait. Fulfilling a pledge by the country's government to have Ukrainian troops out of Iraq by the end of 2005.

Jonathan Levinson : 12/27/2005 10:40:32 AM

Crude oil is down .6 at 57.825, natgas -1.11 at 11.175 here. Session lows have been 57.575 and 11.07 respectively. 4-day 100 tick chart of crude at this Link 30-tick chart of natgas at this Link .

Jeff Bailey : 12/27/2005 10:36:23 AM

Freeport McMoran (FCX) $54.32 -1.43% Link .... Copper/Gold producer showing weakness after The New York Times reported the company has dumped nearly a billion tons of waste from its Grasberg mine in a remote Indonesian province on the island of New Guinea. Where dumping of the waste has been shielded by payoffs to various government officials in the region.

Company records obtained by the Times show that from 1998 through 2004, Freeport gave military and police generals, colonels, majors and captains, and military units, nearly $20 million. Individual commanders received tens of thousands of dollars, in one case up to $150,000, according to the documents. The Times said the records were provided by an individual close to Freeport and confirmed as authentic by current and former employees.

Jonathan Levinson : 12/27/2005 10:32:38 AM

Bonds remain surprisingly weak given the big repo add. TNX is up .5 bps at 4.385% and IRX is up .7 bps at 3.902%. The Fed followed up with an additional 3.5B overnight repo, bringing the day's total to a whopping 11.5B added.

Jonathan Levinson : 12/27/2005 10:24:07 AM

Volume breadth is down to +1.2:1 on the NYSE, +1.9:1 on the Nasdaq.

Jonathan Levinson : 12/27/2005 10:23:03 AM

QQQQ breaks back into the gap, the short cycles gathering for an imminent downphase. 1st goal for the bears is 72 SMA support at 41.42, below which this troublesome uptick in the 30 min cycle will whipsaw to the downside. Link

Jeff Bailey : 12/27/2005 10:13:01 AM

10:00 Internals found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 12/27/2005 10:11:20 AM

QQQQ dives back to gap support: Link

Jonathan Levinson : 12/27/2005 10:08:06 AM

Volume breadth declines to +1.45:1 on the NYSE, +3:1 on the Nasdaq.

Keene Little : 12/27/2005 10:07:21 AM

Jonathan, I'm wondering if the Fed has injected so much liquidity into the market in the past week in preparation for the potential negative consequences of this Refco fiasco.

Jeff Bailey : 12/27/2005 10:05:44 AM

10:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 12/27/2005 10:03:19 AM

BioCryst Pharma (BCRX) $18.46 +4.87% ... new 52-weeker.

Jonathan Levinson : 12/27/2005 10:02:13 AM




Jonathan Levinson : 12/27/2005 9:59:06 AM

I'm hearing (not confirmed) that CNBC announces that Refco is to be liquidated. It could be that the irregular activity from the open market desk this AM is to provide liquidity against possible disruptions arising from that event. Just guessing here.

Jonathan Levinson : 12/27/2005 9:54:19 AM

The Fed announces an 8B 8-day repo, all add. The stop out rate dove to 3.88% on treasury collateral, well below the overnight target rate and showing little demand for the money from the Fed's dealers. This looks potentially very bullish to me for equities and treasuries, but there could be seasonal factors to mitigate it.

Jonathan Levinson : 12/27/2005 9:52:14 AM

Awaiting the Fed's repo announcement. There are no expiries today because Friday's 11.5B was added via a 5-day agreement.

Jonathan Levinson : 12/27/2005 9:43:02 AM

QQQQ's short cycle indicators are rising and just now reaching overbought territory. Upper channel support, overbought short cycle indicators and the 41.70 R1 line all combine to make resistance just above look substantial, while price holds 2 pennies above Friday's spike high. Below 41.59, next support is at 41.47-.50. Link

Jeff Bailey : 12/27/2005 9:40:13 AM

Feb. Nat. Gas (ng06g) $11.51 -7.19% .... head/shoulder top objective from bar chart would be near $11.13.

Apache Corp. (APA) $69.00 -1.73% ....

Chesapeake Energy (CHK) $31.20 -2.92% ...

Jonathan Levinson : 12/27/2005 9:36:58 AM

Nasdaq volume breadth is up to 4.9:1 now- QQQQ volume very light so far.

Jeff Bailey : 12/27/2005 9:36:49 AM

AG Edwards (AGE) $47.13 +0.87% Link ... breaks to upside of "neckline" of head/shoulders bottom.

Jonathan Levinson : 12/27/2005 9:32:55 AM

Volume breadth is +1.8:1 on the NYSE, +4.5:1 on the Nasdaq at the open.

Jonathan Levinson : 12/27/2005 9:31:52 AM

QQQQ's 72 SMA support is at 41.37 , 30/60 min channel support is at 41.27, and 30/60 min channel resistance is at 41.45-.47.

Jeff Bailey : 12/27/2005 9:24:08 AM

Dow Diamonds (DIA) with WEEKLY/MONTHLY Pivot Retracement at this Link ... pre-market has DIA ticking higher at $108.96.

It would take a trade above WEEKLY R2 to get the DIA to a new 52-week high (DASHED PINK $109.83 from 03/07/05).

Tab Gilles : 12/27/2005 9:21:59 AM

Swift Transportation (SWFT) Link

+20 Year Treasury Bond Fund iShare (TLT) Link

Jane Fox : 12/27/2005 9:10:04 AM

Dateline WSJ Bond analysts aren't holding out much hope that the 10-year Treasury note will end 2005 with a bang, but the yield curve may ignite some fireworks.

The benchmark 10-year yield, which is sitting just below the 4.4%-4.6% range it had been confined to for more than a month, probably won't stage a significant breakout during the last trading week of the year, analysts say.

But it's a different story for the two-year note. Amid upcoming supply as well as widespread belief that the U.S. Federal Reserve will raise rates one or two more times, the two-year yield is likely to head higher. A bond's yield rises as its price falls.

When the two-year note underperforms the 10-year issue, the difference between these notes' yields -- which slid to 0.01 percentage point last week -- has the potential to disappear altogether, and the two-year note's yield can even surpass the yield on the 10-year.

When shorter-dated yields overtake their longer-dated counterparts, the yield curve is described as inverted. It is a bond-market rarity that has historically foreshadowed recession. Inversion has already happened in the shorter end of the yield curve, with two-year notes yielding about 0.04 percentage point more than five-year notes late last week.

But many policy makers, including Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan, have challenged the view that inversion signals economic trouble, pointing out that the shape of the curve is less predictive than it once was.

Jane Fox : 12/27/2005 9:06:26 AM

Dateline WSJ TOKYO - Japan's most-watched price indicator rose for only the second time in seven years, fueling expectations of an end to a long period of economy-hobbling price falls.

The nationwide core consumer-price index, which excludes volatile fresh-food prices, rose 0.1% in November from a year earlier, the government said. Economists say the indicator has a good chance of continuing to rise, marking a turning point for the world's second-largest economy. The data follow three years of higher Japanese corporate profits, which have led to more investment and consumer spending. If the increases continue, they could point toward an end to the central bank's super-easy monetary policy.

Japan's widest measure of consumer prices, the CPI, fell 0.8% year-on-year. But core CPI is important for two reasons.

First, it is the most telling of the government's major consumer price indicators because it better tracks long-term trends. That matters because consistent price drops, a phenomenon known as deflation, slow the economy. Consumers feel poorer because their homes and stocks are worth less. They expect lower prices in the future, so they put off spending. Meanwhile, corporations, expecting less revenue from each product, delay investment. For several years, this effect acted as a brake on Japan, sometimes tipping it into recession in 2001.

Jane Fox : 12/27/2005 9:04:41 AM

Dateline WSJ After a few slumping weeks in early December, consumers came back to stores in the last days before Christmas to deliver a solid, if not spectacular, holiday season, according to one early projection.

Holiday spending climbed 8.7% ahead of last year, according to SpendingPulse, a retail-sales data service from MasterCard International's MasterCard Advisors unit. Demand for flat-panel television sets, MP3 players and digital cameras helped spur gains, as did sales of home furnishings. But sales of jewelry fell this season following years of solid gains.

"Overall, we got off to a very strong start, then that evolved into a solid finish," says Michael McNamara, vice president of research and analysis for MasterCard Advisors. But he cautioned, "It didn't blow the barn doors off."

Jonathan Levinson : 12/27/2005 8:38:40 AM

Bonds are holding their slight losses, ten year yields up .7 bps to 4.387% and 13-week rates up 1.5 bps to 3.91%.

Jonathan Levinson : 12/27/2005 8:04:49 AM

QQQQ - Exit Point Alert -

Out QQQQ short at 41.58, -.05.

The breakeven stop at 41.53 triggered on the opening gap up, which my chart shows at 41.58. Again, a gap & crap looks likely to me at the opening bell, but in the meantime, price is above the posted stop.

Jonathan Levinson : 12/27/2005 7:58:41 AM

The overnight jam has reversed the 30 min cycle downphase for QQQQ early, well before becoming oversold, and has yet to turn the still-declining 60 min cycle downphase. Price is currently 15 cents above the 30 and 60 min channel tops from Friday's close, suggesting a that a gap & crap open is likely. Of course, the early abort in the 30 min cycle could be the start of something bigger and more bullish, but we'll need to see how these gains fare on heavier volume following the cash open.

Jonathan Levinson : 12/27/2005 7:55:53 AM

Equities are up, ES trading 1279.5. NQ 1706.5, YM 10960 and QQQQ +.20 at 41.60. Gold is up 4.30 at 509.60, silver is up .123 at 8.763, ten year notes are down 3/32 to 109 1/2, crude oil is down .50 at 57.925 and natgas is down .945 at 11.34.

There are no major economic reports scheduled for today.

Market Monitor Archives